McVEAN
Trading & Investments, LLC
CHINA DEMOGRAPHICS December 11, 2023
Philadelphia, PA
Michael Drury Chief Economist
McVean Trading and Investments, LLC
Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
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CHINA’S AGING POPULATION
CHINA’S AGING PROBLEM
CHINA’S BIRTH RATE PROBLEM
Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
2
CHINA’S AGING AN ISSUE AFTER 2035
Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
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LACK OF BIRTHS ACROSS DEVELOPED ASIA A BIG PROBLEM NOW CHINA
• s
KOREA
JAPAN
Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
4
JUST 1% LABOR FORCE GROWTH SINCE 2006
Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
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ACHIEVED MASSIVE GROWTH WITH FIXED LABOR FORCE
Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
6
ONE CHILD POLICY HELPED BUILD CHINA
Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
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WORKFORCE 50% MORE URBAN
Japan Korea US Europe
92% 81% 83% 72%
Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
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PLOWING GROWTH BACK INTO INVESTMENT CHINA INVESTMENT SHARE OF GDP
US AVERAGED 20% 1980 TO 2022
Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
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DEPENDING ON THE KINDNESS OF STRANGERS INWARD FDI AS A SHARE OF REAL GDP
Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
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CHINA COLLEGE ATTENDANCE RATE DOUBLED OVER THE PAST DECADE 2022 US College Attendance All High School Grads Asian Black White Hispanic
62% 72% 64% 61% 58%
Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
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86 MILLION COLLEGE GRADUATES IN THE PAST 10 YEARS 2023 EST 11.5M
Class of 1979 Graduates
Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
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CHINA DOMINATES ENGINEERING US DOMINATES LIFE SCIENCES of Top 15 CHINA ASIA OTHER EUR AUS CAN UK Chemical Engineering 12 2 1 0 0 0 Mechanical Engineering 10 2 3 0 0 0 Civil Engineering 8 3 3 1 0 0 Polymer Science 9 2 2 0 1 0 Nanoscience and Nanotechnology 10 2 1 0 0 0 Electrical and Electronic Engineering 10 2 0 1 2 0 Energy and Fuels 10 2 0 1 0 0 Physical Chemistry 10 2 0 0 1 0 Condensed Matter Physics 10 2 0 0 0 0 Food Science and Technology 9 0 1 3 1 0 Artificial Intelligence 8 2 0 0 2 0 Engineering 8 2 0 2 0 0 Agricultural Sciences 7 0 2 1 1 0 Materials Science 7 2 0 0 0 0 Chemistry 5 2 2 0 0 0 Water Resources 8 0 0 3 2 0 Optics 6 2 0 2 1 0 Computer Science 5 2 0 1 1 0 Pharmacology and Toxicology 4 1 0 2 1 0 Plant and Animal Science 2 0 2 4 1 1 Biotechnology and Applied Microbiology 4 0 0 1 1 0 Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences 3 0 0 5 0 0 Education and Educational Research 2 1 0 3 2 0 Geosciences 3 0 0 3 0 0 Environment/Ecology 2 1 0 2 1 1 Infectious Diseases 2 0 0 2 1 0 Physics 1 1 0 2 0 0 Gastroenterology and Hepatology 1 0 0 5 0 1 Radiology, Nuclear Medicine and Medical Imaging 1 0 0 4 0 1 Mathematics 1 0 0 4 0 0 Space Science 0 1 0 3 0 1 Microbiology 1 0 0 1 1 0 Economics and Business 0 1 0 1 0 0 Endocrinology and Metabolism 0 0 0 3 1 1 Cardiac and Cardiovascular Systems 0 0 0 4 0 1 Psychiatry/Psychology 0 0 0 2 1 1 Surgery 0 0 0 3 0 1 Immunology 0 0 0 2 1 0 Biology and Biochemistry 0 0 0 2 0 1 Oncology 0 0 0 1 1 1 Public, Environmental and Occupational Health 0 0 0 0 1 1 Social Sciences and Public Health 0 0 0 1 0 2 Arts and Humanities 0 0 0 1 1 1 Cell Biology 0 0 0 1 0 0 Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Results. Neuroscience and Behavior 0 0 0Indicative 0 Of Future 0 2 Clinical Medicine 0 0 0 0 0 1 Molecular Biology and Genetics 0 0 0 0 0 1
US 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 3 4 2 4 4 2 1 2 3 4 3 4 2 2 2 0 6 4 4 3 2 3 1
0 0 0 1 2 0 2 2 3 1 2 3 4 6 6 1 4 5 5 5 8 6 6 8 6 6 9 4 5 8 9 10 11 6 7 7 9 10 10 12 7 8 9 11 11 11 13
13
Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
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INDIA’S YOUTH EXCEEDS CHINA’S AGED But, 34% of India is under 19, compared to 22% in China
Work Age
Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
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CHINA UP 3.5% VS USA 2% OVER NEXT DECADE
CHINA +46% US +24%
Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
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CHINA DOMINATES MIDDLE INCOME
USA Germany U.K. France Italy Japan South Korea Spain Greater Shanghai Greater Guangdong Russia Greater Beijing Greater Chongqing Mexico Turkey Other China Brazil Thailand South Africa Colombia Indonesia Iran Egypt Viet Nam Philippines Bangladesh India
2022 POPULATION (MILLIONS) 332.6 84.0 67.0 67.9 58.9 125.1 51.6 47.6 176.8 186.9 143.6 211.2 213.8 127.5 85.1 628.3 215.3 71.7 59.9 51.9 275.5 88.6 111.0 98.2 115.6 171.2 1417.2
2022 2022 GDP PER CAPITA (BILLIONS) INCOME 25463 76553 4072 48455 3071 45851 2783 40964 2010 34158 4231 33815 1665 32255 1398 29350 3646 20623 3312 17723 2240 15607 2791 13215 2563 11988 1414 11091 906 10642 6082 9679 1920 8918 495 6909 406 6776 344 6630 1319 4788 389 4388 477 4295 409 4164 404 3499 460 2688 3385 2389
Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
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IT MAY GET CROWDED AT THE TOP
• XI: EARTH IS BIG ENOUGH FOR BOTH US AND CHINA TO SUCCEED • US’S 330 MILLION SERVED AS SUBURBS FOR 2 BILLION BEFORE CHINA’S RISE – AND US SURGE • CHINA’S 1.4 BILLION WILL NEED 8 BILLION BELOW—Hmmm Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
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LONG RUN PLANNING • THE US IS GEARING UP ITS ECONOMY TO SERVE THE NEEDS OF THE WEALTHY, UNHEALTHY AGING BABY BOOM • WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THE BABY BOOM DIES OUT IN 2045? • CHINA IS GEARING UP ITS ECONOMY TO SERVE AS LEADERSHIP OF THE GLOBAL PRODUCTIVE ECONOMY • WHO WILL BE THE SUBURBS FOR INDIA AND AFRICA AS THEIR POPULATIONS SWELL – REPLACING THE WEST
Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
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