THE DEMOGRAPHIC CLIFF IN HIGHER EDUCATION
George Tsetsekos
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US UNIVERSITIES OF HIGHER EDUCATION
GDP contribution 1.22% Total Revenues $819 Bn Employees 4.5m Wages $315bn Institutions 4,000 Undergraduate Enrollments 16m/Graduate Enrollments 3m Average enrollment 4,750 Public Universities enrollment 13.7m/Private 5.3m Endowments: $980 bn ($600bn for top 100) R&D expenditures $98 bn External Drivers 1. High School graduation rate 2. Demand for donations, grants and endowment 3. Government funding 2
US UNIVERSITIES OF HIGHER EDUCATION
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TOTAL U.S. POPULATION 2015 – 2027 (IN MILLIONS) millions
Source: World Economic Outlook Database April 2022
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POPULATION OF THE U.S. BY RACE 2000-2022 (IN MILLIONS) millions
Source: US Census Bureau July 2023
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millions
% OF U.S. POPULATION WHO HAVE COMPLETED HIGH SCHOOL OR MORE
Male Total
Source: US Census Bureau February 2023 and April 2023
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PERCENTAGE OF THE U.S. POPULATION WITH A COLLEGE DEGREE 1940 2022
Source: US Census Bureau February 2023
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U.S. POPULATION BY GENERATION AS OF 2022 (IN MILLIONS) millions
Source: US Census Bureau March 2023
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U.S. POPULATION BY AGE AS OF JULY 1, 2022 (IN MILLIONS) millions
Source: US Census Bureau as of July 1, 2022
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U.S. BIRTH RATE 2011-2021 (PER 1,000 INHABITANTS)
Source: World Development Indicators September 2023
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U.S. COLLEGE ENROLLMENT RATES OF HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES 1993 - 2022
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics May 2023
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PUBLIC HIGH SCHOOL 4-YEAR ADJUSTED COHORT GRADUATION RATE (ACGR)
Source: National Center for Education Statistics May 2023
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BIRTHS AND HIGH SCHOOL SENIORS PROJECTION IN U.S. (IN MILLIONS)
millions
Source: US Department of Health and Human Services; CDC; NCHS as of December 2021, Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, Knocking at the College Door (2020)
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TOTAL INTERNATIONAL STUDENT ENROLLMENT 2011 – 2023 (IN THOUSANDS)
1,200,000
1,000,000 886,052 800,000
723,277
764,495
1,095,299 1,094,792 1,078,822 1,075,496 1,057,188 1,043,839 974,926 948,519 914,095
819,644
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: Institute of International Education. (2023). "International Students by Academic Level, 1954/55-2022/23.“
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2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
SHARE OF PUBLIC-SCHOOL GRADUATES TO TOTAL GRADUATES 2001 -2037
Projections Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates , 2020
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INTERNATIONAL STUDENT ENROLLMENT 2012–2023 AS A % OF TOTAL U.S. ENROLLMENT Undergraduate International Students
Graduate International Students
Source: Institute of International Education. (2023). "International Students by Academic Level, 1954/55-2022/23,“ College Board October 2023
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TOTAL U.S. COLLEGE ENROLLMENT AND PROJECTIONS 2011 – 2031 (IN MILLIONS)
Source: NCES "Digest of Education Statistics 2022" December 2022
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Projections