Lowe Speaks at Duke University Forum Series on Conservation and Health By: Dr. Jim Lowe, Production Animal Consultation In February 2016 I was one of two speakers at the Duke University Forum in Durham, North Carolina, entitled “Modern Livestock Production: Are the Benefits Worth the Risks?” With a subject like that, there was plenty to talk about as I explained how modern livestock production is critical in meeting the world’s food needs over the next 30 years. My presentation which was titled “Assuring there is enough to go around” described how modern agricultural practices have helped assure a safe, affordable food supply while using fewer resources and enhancing environmental sustainability. The forum was attended by over 100 people including Duke University students; faculty from Duke University Schools of Medicine, Law and the Environment; faculty from North Carolina State University Colleges of Veterinary Medicine and Agriculture; and staff from state and federal government agencies. In my presentation I reviewed the food needs of the 9 billon people that will inhabit our planet by 2050, explaining that as a society we have a moral and ethical obligation to provide food for everyone in a way that creates the least damage to the environment. Making our food system less efficient is not an option. So how do we use the available land and water with increased efficiency to produce twice as much food as we do today? Achieving this will depend partly on reducing post-harvest losses – estimated to be 30% of all production world-wide –
but will mostly rely on adapting and using novel technology. To predict the future, it is important to understand the past. For most of history, agricultural farmers have been price takers, not price makers. Therefore they respond to market trends and demands, which is very different from other industries. Several long-term megatrends have influenced how we raise food in industrialized countries: 1. People want to live in cities. 2. People desire low-cost food. 3. People desire convenient (prepared or partially prepared) food. 4. People are eating out more instead of eating at home. These megatrends have led to many changes in the food supply chain over time. In the US, there has been a 450% increase in the amount of food consumed outside the home since 1961 (figure 1) and supercenters have replaced small local grocers (figure 2). In addition, the top 4 grocery chains now control 40% of the market, up from 20% of the market 20 years ago (figure 3). These consumer and supply chain trends coincided with consolidation in the packing and production segments of the food chain. It is likely not a coincidence that at the same time consolidation was occurring in the food supply chain, there was an increase in the efficiency of the food supply chain (figure 4). Some in society believe we should revert to a more local food system that relies less on technology in order to minimize the environmental impact of food production and increase food safety. The facts do not support that these benefits would materialize.
