The Yield Curve Returns to Centre Stage
Figure 4. US Treasuries Yield curve The US bond market is entering 2026 with the steepest yield curve since 2021, a development that is already shaping the macro narrative across asset classes. However, early-January price action needs careful interpretation. The first trading days of the year often coincide with thin liquidity, as many institutional participants are slow to return. In such conditions, moves in rates and spreads can appear more dramatic than they would in a fully staffed market. As a result, early signals should be viewed as provisional rather than definitive.
Figure 5. US Treasury Yield Spread Source: Fred Charts)