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Don’t Forget! You Saw it in the
Adverti$$er
October 2020 #12255 Page #112
Lumber Briefs By Matt Layman Publisher, Layman’s Lumber Guide
Attitude Your Way Through hen flipping around in trading ranges in the $300s, planning for the coming year had some sort of definable “worst case scenario” contingency plan. I’m just curious. How do you plan for next year, staring down the barrel of all-time high lumber prices and short supply? That depends on whether you are making it or somewhere in the chain of handlers between the producer and final use.
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My rule of thumb motto for planning is, “Pain always lasts longer than hoped for, and pleasure is too short.” Ungrateful, eh? Not so fast, I said planning, not what is expected. I expect improvement. So if I’m planning for everyday into the future, I’m planning that tomorrow might be the average of the past 5–7 days. Let’s say Mon–Wed were phenomenal off the chart days with 10 out of 10 stars, Thursday was an average 5-star day, so going into Friday with 35 stars on the good-weekend side of the scales... could go one of three ways. 1. You get fired or served papers. –50 stars. Wiped out. Justifiable bad weekend. Horrible next
day at work. 2. An average day. A smidge disappointing effort. 0 stars. Average weekend. Kinda’
disappointing. Apathetic Monday carry over. 3. OR Another 10-Star Day. Great weekend 100% and off to the races Monday morning.
It’s attitude. Plan for a Grand Finale. Do what you have to do to end this mayhem on a proverbial Fridaywith-a-great-weekend-coming. Moral of the story, do not worry about things out of your control or sphere of influence. How do we plan for 2 weeks, 6 weeks, or 6 months? One day at a time...from now through the time the product will be available for you to sell is the ONLY time period to be concerned with. Right now is a free-for-all. My caution to you is to not be caught with too little product. Like musical chairs. Every time the music stops, someone has no chair. That is not you. Finish strong.
$1500 2x4s...Why Not? It is a great privilege to be able to participate in this lumber market, be totally invested in it for a career, and advise you on how and when you should make multi-million dollar decisions. It is not lost on me the difference between what you and I do every day. When I make suggestions and forecasts, I try to feel the burden of being wrong. (That is likely why I get very defensive when missing a market.) The risks you take are staggering. So, it is with my highest possible level of confidence that I give you this week’s forecast. Continued next page
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