2015 Middle East Report
Lebanon
BACKGROUND As Lebanon’s Christians watch their brothers and sisters in the faith flee Iraq and Syria, they worry about their own viability in Lebanon. Unless resolutions are found for the Syrian conflict, Lebanon will lose its multi-sectarian identity. This identity makes it unique in the Middle East, where religious minorities are not only protected communities, but key partners in the political process. In a region largely dominated by Sunni Islam, Lebanon’s population is diverse: The World Religion Database estimates the country is 26 percent Sunni; 28 percent Shiite; 34 percent Christian of various denominations, with the Maronite Catholic group being the largest; and around 5 percent Druze. This mosaic has produced a political system based on power sharing among Lebanon’s largest communities, which some credit with preventing Lebanon from descending into a failed state despite the many conflicts it has witnessed in its modern history. But this “confessional” political system, based on a rigid sectarian representation rooted in a census last conducted in 1932, has also weakened the state. National identity in Lebanon is dominated by sectarian identity, leaving trust in national institutions weak as Lebanese citizens to look toward their own community for basic needs and
formation. This fragile arrangement has left the country vulnerable when faced with internal challenges and external threats. Tensions among Lebanon’s sects have escalated since the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in 2005, and the strength of its political institutions has declined. The Syrian conflict that began as an uprising against the regime of Bashar al Assad in 2011 has had a significant impact on relations between Lebanon’s different groups. In the early days of the uprising, Lebanon’s Sunnis mostly supported the anti-government factions, largely Sunni. Most Lebanese Shiites, especially the Shiite political party, Hezbollah, backed the Assad government because of the special relationship between Hezbollah and the Shiite-derived Alawi sect that dominates the Syrian regime. This caused tension within Lebanon, especially as it became clear that the conflict was becoming a long-term stalemate. This caused Lebanon’s proand anti-Assad camps to become increasingly anxious and confrontational, leading to several political battles that sometimes translated into armed clashes. Hezbollah’s involvement on the ground in Syria has increased tensions between Lebanese Sunnis and Shiites. Even those Sunnis who had supported