Cornerstone Government Affairs 2022 Election Analysis Update

2022 ELECTION ANALYSIS UPDATE

TABLE OF CONTENTS

ELECTION OVERVIEW

In the modern era, midterm elections are a referendum on the party in power. The party that holds the White House has lost congressional seats in every election except in 1934, 1998, and 2002. On Tuesday, Nov. 8, all 435 House seats and 35 of the 100 Senate seats were on the ballot, as were the Governorships in 36 out of the 50 states. Most races across the country were called late Tuesday night, though some in the House and Senate were not decided for days.

Republicans have regained control of the House of Representatives for the first time since 2018, by very slim margins. The Senate remained under Democratic control with Democrats holding all contested seats and picking up the open seat in Pennsylvania.

It is certain many issues resonated with the electorate and, with an election this close, the importance of any one issue can seem decisive in hindsight. Structural factors such as the first midterm of a new Administration, rising inflation and interest rates, the broader direction of the economy, further polarization of the electorate, the weakening of confidence in democratic institutions, and former President Trump’s active involvement the last couple weeks, and in candidate selection during the primary campaigns, all played a central role this cycle. Key issues like the aftermath of Dobbs, rising crime rates, inflation, and public health concerns also played a significant role as well, particularly in the final months of the campaigns.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

Republicans regained the majority in the House:

o 221 Republicans

o 213 Democrats

o 1 called for Republican incumbent but sent to mandated recount as results are within 0.5 percent 

The majority in the Senate remained Democrats: o 51 Democrats (including 3 Independents that caucus with Democrats)

o 49 Republicans 

Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) is likely to be the next Speaker of the House, but a thin majority is a complicating factor 

Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and Majority Leader Stenny Hoyer (D-MD) stepped down from Democratic leadership in the House  Reps. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), Katherine Clark (D-MA), Pete Aguilar (D-CA) comprises the new Democratic leadership in the House.

This election cycle clearly showed the divided nature of modern politics. In the midterm runup, lawmakers and independent or bipartisan commissions across the country redrew maps of congressional districts prompting partisan clashes and litigation with Democrats and Republicans arguing the legality of each side’s actions. One of the biggest subplots in this election cycle has been the number of candidates and voters openly expressing a lack of confidence in the nation’s democratic processes. Ahead of the midterm elections, 42% of Republican voters said they believe the contests will “definitely” or “probably” be free or fair, compared with 85% of Democratic voters who said the same.

Almost every election produces legal challenges, but most have historically come after Election Day. As a harbinger of a potentially contentious post-election period, the runup to the 2022 midterm elections had more than 100 lawsuits and legal challenges filed before voting commenced on Nov. 8. Adding to this mix an estimated surplus of 42 million mail-in ballots nationwide – roughly a 40% increase over the 2018 midterms – presents the ingredients for election challenges and allegations of fraud or stolen elections

The 118th Congress will be seated on Jan 3, 2023. The departure of members ranging from freshmen to long-tenured members of Congress will result in new congressional leadership, new compositions of House and Senate committees, and correspondingly new legislative priorities – and perhaps even some new procedures. Beyond legislation, congressional oversight of the Biden Administration is likely to play a pivotal role among the new Republican membership’s priorities. In the short-term, the bigger question will be how the interpretation of Tuesday’s results and the change in control of the House will be viewed in the halls of Congress and how that will impact the environment surrounding the pending lame duck session.

In the aftermath of the election, officials in the White House, Congress, and the respective party headquarters continue to scrutinize the results to determine what motivated voters. How they read the results will go a long way toward framing debate in Washington and across the nation. It will also set the stage early between the parties for the 2024 presidential campaign.

The ability of Congress to achieve a productive legislative effort in the 118th Congress, given the results of the elections, is now the principal focus of discussion. Although it might initially appear that the next two years of governing are structurally condemned to gridlock, there are prospects for constructive action. First, Republicans are now charged with passing bills, even if subject to a presidential veto. Second, slow movement in Washington is likely to continue to fuel the trend of increased power and action in the states. While the headlines may illuminate conflict over collaboration, Congress and the Administration will undoubtedly advance multiple agendas through the committees and regulatory bodies.

Finally, there is a prospect that deadlines, expiring provisions, and debates over the implementation of recently enacted policies may drive some constructive developments on issues such as energy, trade, taxes, health, and regular spending. This Congress may also take a fresh look at some immigration-related issues and pursue a return to relatively more regular order on appropriations bills. The central question remains, will there be some compromise, or will the upcoming session be dominated by gridlock? Only time will tell, but make no mistake, the 2024 Presidential election season is officially underway.

U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

OVERVIEW

Republicans regained control of the House of Representatives for the first time since 2018, ending two years of full Democratic control in Washington and ushering in a new era of divided government. Democrats overperformed expectations, holding on to a number of competitive seats and losing the majority by a narrower margin than expected. The new Republican majority will be very focused on executing both their legislative and oversight agendas with an eye towards positioning the party for success in the 2024 elections. Executive Branch officials will quickly face subpoenas and oversight hearings on a wide range of issues in the new Congress.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

Republicans capture majority, will confront the Biden Administration.

Democrats defied expectations and held back the red wave, giving Republicans a slim majority

Rep. Kevin McCarthy is the likely Speaker of the House, expect conservatives to try and extract concessions for their support  New Democratic leadership team in the 118th Congress

Midterm elections are largely a referendum on the sitting President, their party, and the economy. In the lead up to the 2022 midterms Republicans had been traveling the country asserting that Democrats' policies are to blame for rising inflation, high energy prices, and a slowing economy. Additionally, Congressional Democrats' use of two reconciliation bills to enact trillions of dollars in new spending became a major argument by the Republicans as wasteful government spending and they emphasized a need for Republican control of the House. Democrats primarily amplified a pro-choice and pro-democracy message in an effort to turn out its base, using the recent Supreme Court decision in the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization case and Republican candidate quality in some races to their advantage.

The new Republican majority will attempt to stymie President Biden's agenda, while also conducting significant oversight of the Administration. Expect the Afghanistan withdrawal, COVID-19 response, southern border issues, and flow of federal dollars to all be high on the oversight priority list, with the conservative wing of the party pushing for even more aggressive tactics. House Republicans will look to move quickly on their legislative and oversight agendas as the 2024 presidential hopefuls will likely start jockeying for the position very early in the cycle.

The 118th Congress will look different than the previous Congress. The House Republican Conference has continued to recruit diverse candidates and will once again grow the number of female members in its ranks. With a slimmer than anticipated majority, House Republican leadership will have to corral both moderate members and members of the conservative wing. On the Democratic side, the narrow margin in the House will give moderates significant

leverage in any bipartisan legislating. While there might be some room for bipartisan dealmaking over the next two years, expect the divided government and looming 2024 elections to significantly hamper the ability of Congress and the Administration to find common ground

REPUBLICAN LEADERSHIP (MAJORITY)

Republicans held their leadership elections on November 15 and have since elected members to the Steering Committee. The Steering Committee has selected committee chairmen for the 118th Congress for the committees where there was not a contested race. They have yet to select committee chairs for committees with contested races, and those proceedings may be delayed until after the vote for Speaker on January 3.

Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) has been elected by his Republican colleagues to serve as Speaker, but he will still need to garner 218 votes on the House Floor on January 3, 2023, in order to become Speaker of the House. Given the slimmer than anticipated majority for House Republicans, McCarthy may have to remain in deal making mode with the more conservative wing of the Conference in the run up to the Speaker vote to ensure he has the requisite votes. Current Republican Whip Rep. Steve Scalise (R-LA) has been selected to be the Majority Leader; Rep. Tom Emmer (R-MN), the current NRCC Chairman, won the tight race to become Majority Whip, edging out Rep. Jim Banks (R-IN), current RSC Chairman, on the second ballot and Rep. Drew Ferguson (R-GA), current Chief Deputy Whip, on the first ballot; and Rep. Elise Stefanik (RNY) defeated Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL) to remain in her role as Conference Chair. The full results of House Republican leadership elections can be found below:

Speaker: Kevin McCarthy (188-31)

Majority Leader: Steve Scalise (unopposed)

Majority Whip: Tom Emmer (beat Banks on second ballot, 115-106)

Conference Chair: Elise Stefanik (144-74)

NRCC Chair: Richard Hudson (unopposed)

Conference Vice Chair: Mike Johnson (unopposed)

Policy Committee Chair: Gary Palmer (unopposed)

Conference Secretary: Lisa McClain (106-62 [Clyde]-38 [Grothman])

DEMOCRATIC LEADERSHIP (MINORITY)

As the dust settled post-election, all eyes were on Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and whether she would seek another term in leadership as Minority Leader or step down from her leadership post. Both she and Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD) decided to step down from Democratic leadership of the House but will remain in Congress. Majority Whip Jim Clyburn (D-SC) will move to the role of Assistant Minority Leader, the number 4 role in Democratic leadership. It is worth noting that Rep. Hoyer has the option to return to the House Committee on Appropriations, where he has retained his seniority.

A new generation of Democrats has been elected unanimously in the aftermath of Rep. Pelosi and her lieutenants’ announcement to the end their leadership tenures. Current Democratic Caucus Chair Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) was elected Leader, Assistant Speaker Katherine Clark (DMA) was elected to the second ranking position of Minority Whip, and Democratic Caucus ViceChair Pete Aguilar (D-CA) was elected to the third ranking position of Caucus Chair. Rep. Joe Neguse (D-CO) has been chosen as the Chair of the House Democratic Policy and Communications Committee (DPCC) and Reps. Veronica Escobar (D-TX), Dean Phillips (D-MN), and Lauren Underwood (D-IL) have all been selected as Co-Chairs of the DPCC. The chairmanship of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) will be selected by Leader Jeffries

LEGISLATIVE/POLITICAL AGENDA - MAJORITY

House Republicans will be focused on a combined legislative and oversight agenda that builds on the arguments they made in the lead up to the midterms, namely that Democratic policies and spending are to blame for the slowing economy and high prices facing Americans. Combating inflation, lowering energy prices, and increasing the defense budget while cutting non-defense spending will all be legislative priorities for House Republicans. The oversight agenda will focus on issues like the Afghanistan withdrawal, energy policies, the federal government's COVID-19 response, and the situation at the Southern border. Many of these legislative and oversight priorities are captured in the House Republicans' "Commitment to America," which they released in late September. Expect this to be a topline guiding document that Republicans will work to follow as they build out the agenda for the 118th Congress.

The 2024 elections will loom over the party as it waits to see who will announce their intention to run for President and when. Former President Trump announced his intention to run in 2024 on November 16. Former Vice President Pence, Governor DeSantis, and a host of other governors, senators, and former cabinet secretaries will also command a great deal of attention in the first quarter of next year. Republicans will look to shore up key gains they made in seats that President Biden carried in 2020 to ensure they can keep the House majority in the 2024 election

LEGISLATIVE/POLITICAL AGENDA - MINORITY

House Democrats will celebrate more positive results than expected and will need to quickly assess the results to determine what motivated voters to hold key competitive seats and which tactics ultimately led to the loss of others. With a slim margin on the horizon, Democrats will work to shore up unity in their caucus to deny the new majority significant legislative advancements and work to position themselves for success in 2024. Watch for a more vocal moderate bloc emboldened by new and returning Blue Dog Coalition and New Democrat Coalition members and expect the caucus to deploy its most talented messengers on social issues such as reproductive rights, gun violence, and immigration reform. Democrats will also go on the offense against Republicans who won seats carried by President Biden and tie them

to the more conservative wing of the Republican party with the hope that they can win these seats back.

House Democrats will also continue to work alongside the Administration to promote the implementation of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA), the CHIPS and Science Act, and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) with a focus on the localized impact of dollars drawn down from these initiatives.

NOTABLE DEFEATS, RETIREMENTS , OR NEW ADDITIONSMAJORITY

At the time of publication of this report, the following Republican incumbents have succumbed to Democratic challengers: Reps. Steve Chabot (R-OH), Mayra Flores (R-TX), and Yvette Herrell (R-NM). Republicans lost some senior members of the House GOP Conference to retirements and bids for higher office, including Reps. Lee Zeldin (R-NY, lost race for Governor), Kevin Brady (R-TX, retired), John Katko (R-NY, retired), Fred Upton (R-MI, retired), David McKinley (R-WV, lost primary), Tom Rice (R-SC, lost primary), and Rodney Davis (R-IL, lost primary). Reps. Ted Budd (R-NC) and Markwayne Mullin (R-OK) were both successful in their races for the U.S. Senate.

NOTABLE DEFEATS, RETIREMENTS , OR NEW ADDITIONSMINORITY

At time of publication of this report, the following Democratic incumbents had succumbed to Republican challengers: Reps. Cindy Axne (D-IA), Al Lawson (D-FL), Elaine Luria (D-VA), Tom Malinowski (D-NJ), and Tom O’Halleran (D-AZ). Of note, DCCC Chairman Sean Patrick Maloney (D-NY) was also defeated by a Republican challenger. Democrats lost several members of the caucus to retirements and bids for higher office, including but not limited to Reps. Peter DeFazio (D-OR, retired), Val Demings (D-FL, ran for Senate), Ron Kind (D-WI, retired), Conor Lamb (D-PA, ran for Senate), Stephanie Murphy (D-FL, retired), and Tim Ryan (D-OH, ran for Senate). Rep. Peter Welch (D-VT) was successfully elected to the U.S. Senate. The 118th Congress will include the first Gen-Z Member of Congress ever elected as incoming Rep. Maxwell Frost (D-FL) prepares to be sworn in at age 25.

U.S. SENATE

OVE RVIEW

Democrats successfully retained control of the Senate and added the open seat in Pennsylvania to cling to a 51-49 majority. Republicans held 49 of their 50 seats, and Democrats picked up one seat with the victory of John Fetterman in Pennsylvania.

Predictably, Alabama, Missouri, North Carolina, and Oklahoma's Senate seats all remained in Republican hands, and Vermont in Democratic hands, after the retirement of Senators in those states. Among other closely watched races, the incumbents prevailed in Colorado, Florida, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

Senate split is 51/ 49 Democrats /Republicans.  Three races are too close to call on election night (AZ, GA, & NV) all went in the Democratic column.  PA is the only Senate seat to flip thus far – moving from Republican to Democratic hands.

With the new 51/49 party split in the Senate, Vice President Kamala Harris will no longer be called upon in her role as President of the Senate to cast a tie breaking vote. With the win by Democratic incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock over his Republican challenger Herschel Walker, committee ratios will be set in favor of Democrats –giving Democratic leadership and easier path to move legislation. A one-seat majority relieves the need for complete party unanimity and allows Democrats to face fewer procedural hurdles within the various committees. Additionally, this can really help the Biden Administration in confirming nominees and judges more quickly.

OPEN SEATS & CLOSELY WATCHED RACES

* indicates a retiring Senator

DEMOCRATIC LEADERSHIP

The outcome of the midterms did not affect Sen. Chuck Schumer's (D-NY) position as Democratic Leader. Having led Senate Democrats through the myriad challenges of the longest-ever tenure of an evenly divided 50/50 Senate in the 117th and having successfully shepherded significant legislative victories for the Biden Administration, Schumer has solidified his support within the caucus ranks.

Similarly, the broader Senate Democratic leadership team of twelve members will remain largely intact. The top caucus positions under Schumer will continue to be held by Majority Whip Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL), and DPCC Chair Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI), and the other members including Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), Mark Warner (D-VA), Amy Klobuchar (DMN), Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV), Joe Manchin (D-WV), Cory Booker (D-NJ), and Tammy Baldwin (D-WI). Sen. Brian Schatz (D-HA) has joined the leadership as Deputy Conference Secretary.

The one notable change to leadership pertains to Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA), who will take on the role of President Pro Tempore (PPT) in the 118th Congress, a position currently held by retiring Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-VT). Sen. Murray is also poised to take over the Democrats’ top spot on the powerful Appropriations committee, and therefore has relinquished her leadership post for the next Congress

Finally, similar to caucus discussions that took place following the 2020 elections, it is possible there may be some desire, particularly amongst more junior members, to more evenly distribute power and influence in the Senate Democratic ranks. In the current Congress, this ultimately played out with the implementation of the so-called “Murphy rule,” in which senior Members holding full committee gavels could not select subcommittee posts (particularly powerful Appropriations subcommittee leadership slots) until every Member of the caucus had an opportunity to select a subcommittee gavel. Deliberations on other possible caucus rules changes are ongoing.

REPUBLICAN LEADERSHIP

Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) remained the leader of Senate Republicans but had to face his first-ever leadership challenge by NRSC Chair Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL). With 38 years serving in Senate, and the longest tenure of any Republican Senate leader in history (16 years), Sen. McConnell swatted off both Sen. Scott and attempts this fall by former President Trump to call into question his ability to lead the party in the 118th Congress – where he is set to surpass Democratic Leader Mike Mansfield (D-MT) as the longest serving party leader ever

The Republicans’ number two position, Republican Whip, will remain in the hands of Sen. John Thune (R-SD) – who will be term limited at the end of the 118th Congress. Sen John Barrasso (RWY) maintains the third-ranking leadership position of Republican Conference Chair. The major leadership changes for the Senate Republican leadership occurred in the more junior positions. Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV) will take over as Conference Vice Chair, a job that will be vacated by Sen Joni Ernst (R-IA) who will become Republican Policy Chair (held in the 117th Congress by retiring Sen. Roy Blunt (R-MO)). It is expected that Sens. John Cornyn (R-TX), Roger Wicker (R-MS), and Chuck Grassley (R-IA) – the longest serving Republican Senator – will maintain their unelected leadership positions as advisors to McConnell. Sen. Steve Daines (RMT) will be the NRSC Chair; his Democratic colleague in Montana, Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) will be one of the vulnerable Senators up for reelection in 2024.

L EGISLATIVE/POLITICAL AGENDA - DEMOCRATS

The President’s party will be more encumbered by the incoming House Republican Majority. Given this, Senate Democrats are likely to focus heavily on two main areas: 1) amplifying and bolstering the significant legislative accomplishments of the previous two years of President Biden’s first term, including ongoing implementation of the American Rescue Plan Act, the Bipartisan Infrastructure law, the Chips and Science Act, the Inflation Reduction Act, the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act, the PACT Act, and more; and 2) nominations. As mentioned previously, the most significant aspect of Democratic control of the Senate is continuing the ability to confirm key Biden Administration officials, many of whom will be integral in the implementation efforts of the aforementioned laws, as well as judicial nominations. To date, the Democratic Senate has confirmed 84 judges nominated by President Biden, including Supreme Court Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson, 25 Court of Appeals judges, and 58 District Court judicial nominations.

Additionally, Democrats and the Administration are likely to seek opportunities for bipartisan work on a handful of issues beyond the annual “must-pass bills” of appropriations and the National Defense Authorization Act. Discussions on topics ranging from workforce and job training to climate and clean energy, cannabis reform, immigration reform, and more will remain top priorities for many members.

LEGISLATIVE/POLITICAL AGENDA - REPUBLICAN

Sen. McConnell will continue his well-disciplined efforts to keep Republican Senators united in their opposition to Biden-Schumer priorities. The self-styled “grim reaper”, Sen. McConnell has deftly blocked Democratic policy objectives, organizing his caucus and working across the aisle with moderate Sens. Krysten Sinema (I-AZ) and Joe Manchin (D-WV). He will continue to slow down consideration of the President’s nominations – especially judicial – as a key negotiating tool.

Unlike the 117th Congress, where Sen. McConnell's Conference acted as the sole bulwark against the Democratic agenda, the Senate Republicans will be bolstered by an energized House

Republican conference set to pass an aggressive series of bills early in the session. Unlike the House Republican conference, which often coordinates a specific platform for its members to push and campaign on, do not expect Senate Republican leadership to lay out a formal agenda. Both chambers will have shared priorities to curb inflation, reduce spending, address rising crime, focus on the border crisis, and improve economic policies. Expect Sen. McConnell look for policies that unite his caucus and put the White House on the defense.

Committee leaders are likely to include:

SENATE COMMITTEE LEADERSHIP FORECAST

Committee

Aging

Democratic Republican

Bob Casey (PA) Mike Braun (IN)

Agriculture Debbie Stabenow (MI) John Boozman (AR)

Appropriations Patty Murray (WA) Susan Collins (ME)

Armed Services Jack Reed (RI) Roger Wicker (MS)

Banking Sherrod Brown (OH) Tim Scott (SC)

Budget Sheldon Whitehouse (RI) Lindsey Graham (SC)

Commerce Maria Cantwell (WA) Ted Cruz (TX)

Energy Joe Manchin (WV) John Barrasso (WY)

EPW Tom Carper (DE) Shelley Moore Capito (WV)

Finance Ron Wyden (OR) Mike Crapo (ID)

Foreign Relations Bob Menendez (NJ) Jim Risch (ID)

HELP Bernie Sanders (I-VT) Bill Cassidy (LA)

Homeland Security Gary Peters (MI) Rand Paul (KY)

Indian Affairs Brian Schatz (HI) Lisa Murkowski (AK)

Judiciary Dick Durbin (IL) Chuck Grassley (IA)

Rules Amy Klobuchar (MN) Deb Fischer (NE)

Small Business Ben Cardin (MD) Joni Ernst (IA)

Veterans Affairs Jon Tester (MT) Jerry Moran (KS)

NOTABLE DEFEATS, RETIREMENTS , OR NEW ADDITIONSDEMOCRATS

Democrats successfully defended all 17 of their incumbents while picking up the Pennsylvania seat left open by retiring Sen. Pat Toomey.

Late Republican efforts to expand the Senate map in states such as New Hampshire, Colorado, and Washington were ultimately unsuccessful, with incumbent Senators in each winning handily.

NOTABLE DEFEATS,

RETIREMENTS

, OR NEW ADDITIONSREPUBLICAN

Of the 20 seats Republicans were defending in 2022, they held 19 seats and have lost one. No pick-ups of Democratic seats have occurred.

What we do know is that from an ideological perspective, the Senate Republican conference will tick more to the right. The retirements of pragmatic conservatives and their replacement by more right-leaning Senator-elects such as Eric Schmitt (R-MO) (who has already pledged not to support Mitch McConnell for Republican Leader) and Ted Budd (R-NC) threaten to take the Republican conference in a more conservative direction. Victories for challenger Blake Masters in Arizona and former Nevada Attorney General Adam Laxalt – who was a leading advocate for former President Trump recount efforts in the state in 2020 – would continue this trend. The additions of Katie Britt (R-AL), J.D. Vance (R-OH), and Markwayne Mullin (R-OK) are closer to a one-for-one ideological replacement for their predecessors. And, while not racing to the right like the House Republican conference, Senate Republicans are, as a whole, moving further that direction.

Popular governors helped buoy endangered Republicans in toss-up races, such as Ohio and Florida. The Republican victory in Ohio showed the limitations to Democrats' ability to counter former President Trump in Rust Belt states, even when putting forth an experienced and polished moderate candidate. However, Republican losses in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada showed that same messaging strategy in the wrong state can weigh candidates down, as well.

GOVERNORS

OVERVIEW

Just as the 2018 gubernatorial races were key to determining new congressional districts after the 2020 census, the importance of the 2022 governor elections is heightened due to the role of state executives in validating election results and the recent Supreme Court decision which pushed reproductive decisions back to the states.

This year, gubernatorial elections were held in 36 states and three territories, with 31 incumbent governors eligible to run for reelection and eight governors not eligible or seeking reelection. Republicans held 28 seats while Democrats held 22, with Alaska, Arizona, Nevada, and Oregon too close to call hours after polls closed, Democrats have clearly outperformed modest expectations with two historic flips in Maryland and Massachusetts and hard-fought tossups in Kansas, Wisconsin, and Michigan.

KEY TAKEAWAYS



Republicans extended their streak of holding the majority of governorships to 12 years.  Democrats pushed platforms with women’s health at the fore. 

Republicans led with anticrime messaging and ‘law and order.’ 

The Governorships are likely to remain fertile ground for Presidential candidates from both parties looking to run as ‘outsiders.’ 

Republicans maintain majority of Governorships: o 26 Republican o 24 Democrats

Democrats came into the election with two prime pickup opportunities – Massachusetts and Maryland – which they sealed. However, the narrative in the remaining Democratic states was largely defensive, especially in Kansas and Wisconsin, where Democrats won close electoral counts. “Nevada incumbent Gov. Sisolak’s lost his race against Joe Lombardo. This could be in part due to national Republican forces pouring money into the state for the Senate race, where Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto was a top conservative pickup opportunity.

The Democratic party apparatus clearly spent its resources wisely and in articulated fashion. The platform that worked in Pennsylvania, where the Democratic candidate Shapiro was running against Republican Mastriano was highly differentiated from the races in Massachusetts or California.

GUBERNATORIAL RACES

Dem hold Dem gain GOP gain GOP hold

No election

Not yet called

2022 Gubernatorial Races as of 2 1/10/22.

GENERAL SUMMATION

As Washington, D.C. is looking at two years of divided, partisan government, state capitols are becoming increasingly active political hotbeds as the nation gears up for the 2024 presidential election, with several governors featuring prominently in the race for the White House. The Democrats have increased their balance of governorships to 24, while ceding the remaining 26 to Republicans. That said, the percentage of the population under Democratic governors is 57 with Republicans at 43.

Michigan: Democratic incumbent Gretchen Whitmer won her first race on a pragmatic message of “fix the damn roads.” Beyond securing federal funding to address infrastructure concerns, Gov. Whitmer found new urgency in her campaign by focusing on women’s health. Her opponent, conservative commentator Tudor Dixon, ran an outsider campaign predicated in part

Graphic Sourced from National Journal

on former President Trump’s support and a near total ban on abortion. Gov. Whitmer is often mentioned as a potential presidential candidate.

Wisconsin: Former President Obama’s last-minute rally provided just enough enthusiasm to carry incumbent Democrat Tony Evers across the line in Wisconsin, where a Republicandominated legislature remains poised to counter the powers of the executive. Obama clamored that “Democracy is also on the ballot” ten days before the election, which Evers won by less than 3% of the votes cast in a campaign that was shaped by social justice and the events of the last several years.

Maryland: Wes Moore may be new to elective office, but his smooth sail to Annapolis indicates that he may remain on the political scene for some time to come. Gov.-elect Moore, a Rhodes Scholar, has a military, government, and not-for-profit background which he parlayed into a win over a crowded democratic primary, which included former DNC Chair, Tom Perez, as well as sitting MD Comptroller Peter Franchot. Moore is a self-styled centrist who views himself as socially moderate and fiscally responsible.

New York: In July, Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) led former Rep. Lee Zeldin (R) by an average of 19 points. Political experts were shocked on election night when Rep. Zeldin pulled to within single digits of Gov. Hochul’s lead. Rep. Zeldin’s commitment to protect public safety by cracking down on rising crime and illegal immigration resonated with New York voters who have not elected a Republican to lead the state since George Pataki in 1994. However, Zeldin needed a minimum of 30% of the electorate in New York City, and he was unable to secure that tranche in the heavily Democratic City.

Massachusetts: In Massachusetts, state Attorney General Maura Healey (D) maintained consistent polling and fundraising leads throughout the campaign, flipping this formerly Republican (Gov. Baker) state executive seat back to the Democrat’s column. Gov.-elect Healey cut her political teeth by leading the nation’s first successful challenge to the Defense of Marriage Act, a 1996 law that prohibited federal recognition of same-sex marriages. Her opponent, Geoff Diehl, was a former state representative endorsed by former President Trump. The win is historic, as she becomes the Commonwealth’s first female and openly gay governor. The former captain of the Harvard women’s basketball team began her life in public service working for the Massachusetts attorney general’s office.

Arizona: After weeks of quixotic attempts to hold on, former news anchor Kari Lake (R) was defeated by the current Secretary of State Katie Hobbs (D) in a race that focused just as much on election integrity as it did on immigration reform and inflation. In the end, the reserved and sanguine nature of the Hobbs campaign tipped the scale in her favor as Gov.-elect Lake who, one of former President Trump’s strongest supporters, found herself against the current political winds in Arizona.

Florida: Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) defeated Rep. Charlie Crist (D) by approximately 20 points in a race that many political observers predicted as competitive in the beginning. Gov. DeSantis’s prolific fundraising gave him the confidence to campaign in New York for gubernatorial candidate Lee Zeldin (R) just two weeks before the election. Refusing to commit to serving out another full term as Florida’s Governor, DeSantis is seen as a 2024 Republican frontrunner and may be the only candidate that can beat former President Trump in a primary.

Oklahoma: Gov. Kevin Stitt won reelection over Joy Hofmeister (D) in a race that was closer than originally expected in this conservative midwestern state. The political drama started when Hofmeister, who served two terms as a Republican as Oklahoma’s elected state superintendent of public instruction, switched parties to run against Gov. Stitt, and it peaked when former Rep. J.C. Watts (R) cut an ad endorsing Hofmeister one week before election day. However, Stitt was able to overcome the attacks with the help of a slew of endorsements by national conservatives, including Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

Georgia: In a rematch of their 2018 gubernatorial race, incumbent Republican Gov. Brian Kemp (R) once again defeated former State Rep. Stacey Abrams (D), only this time by a lot more. Gov. Kemp campaigned heavily on Georgia’s record-low unemployment and economic success during his first term as Governor. Perhaps just as important to his reelection was Gov. Kemp’s promise to continue to crack down on gang violence and support of law enforcement. Gov. Kemp remains in the unique position of having stood up to former President Trump during the 2020 election and been rewarded with reelection, which may set him up for future political opportunities.

Nevada: Unlike 2018, when Silver State Republicans were fractured, Republican voters were united and joined many of the state’s Independents to help veteran and Clark County Sherriff Joe Lombardo (R) narrowly defeat first term incumbent Gov. Steve Sisolak (D) by a narrow margin (votes continue to be counted as we go to press.) While nearly three-fourths of the state’s population reside in the Democratic-leaning Clark County, Gov.-elect Lombardo made a concerted effort early in the campaign to devote time and resources targeting independent voters, specifically to the north in bellwether Washoe County. After being sworn in as Governor, Gov.-elect Lombardo will immediately begin to welcome 2024 Republican presidential candidates as Nevada will continue to have an early and important role in the nomination process.

Washington, DC Annapolis, MD Atlanta, GA Augusta, ME Austin, TX Baton Rouge, LA Chicago, IL Denver, C O Des Moines, IA Frankfort, KY Houston, TX Jackson, MS Oklahoma City, OK Springfield, IL