III. SENATE

OVERVIEW

Democrats successfully retained control of the Senate and added the open seat in Pennsylvania to cling to a 51-49 majority. Republicans held 49 of their 50 seats, and Democrats picked up one seat with the victory of John Fetterman in Pennsylvania.

Predictably, Alabama, Missouri, North Carolina, and Oklahoma's Senate seats all remained in Republican hands, and Vermont in Democratic hands, after the retirement of Senators in those states. Among other closely watched races, the incumbents prevailed in Colorado, Florida, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin.

With the new 51/49 party split in the Senate, Vice President Kamala Harris will no longer be called upon in her role as President of the Senate to cast a tie breaking vote. With the win by Democratic incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock over his Republican challenger Herschel Walker, committee ratios will be set in favor of Democrats –giving Democratic leadership and easier path to move legislation. A one-seat majority relieves the need for complete party unanimity and allows Democrats to face fewer procedural hurdles within the various committees. Additionally, this can really help the Biden Administration in confirming nominees and judges more quickly. KEY TAKEAWAYS

 Senate split is 51/ 49

Democrats /Republicans.  Three races are too close to call on election night (AZ, GA, & NV) all went in the

Democratic column.  PA is the only Senate seat to flip thus far – moving from

Republican to Democratic hands.

*indicates a retiring Senator

DEMOCRATIC LEADERSHIP

The outcome of the midterms did not affect Sen. Chuck Schumer's (D-NY) position as Democratic Leader. Having led Senate Democrats through the myriad challenges of the longestever tenure of an evenly divided 50/50 Senate in the 117th and having successfully shepherded significant legislative victories for the Biden Administration, Schumer has solidified his support within the caucus ranks.

Similarly, the broader Senate Democratic leadership team of twelve members will remain largely intact. The top caucus positions under Schumer will continue to be held by Majority Whip Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL), and DPCC Chair Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) and the other members including Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), Mark Warner (D-VA), Amy Klobuchar (DMN), Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV), Joe Manchin (D-WV), Cory Booker (D-NJ), and Tammy Baldwin (D-WI). Sen. Brian Schatz (D-HA) has joined the leadership as Deputy Conference Secretary.

The one notable change to leadership pertains to Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA), who will take on the role of President Pro Tempore (PPT) in the 118th, a position currently held by retiring Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-VT). Sen. Murray is also poised to take over the Democrats’ top spot on the powerful Appropriations committee, and therefore has relinquished her leadership post for the next Congress

Finally, similar to caucus discussions that took place following the 2020 elections, it is possible there may be some desire, particularly amongst more junior members, to more evenly distribute power and influence in the Senate Democratic ranks. In the current Congress, this ultimately played out with the implementation of the so-called “Murphy rule,” in which senior Members holding full committee gavels could not select subcommittee posts (particularly powerful Appropriations subcommittee leadership slots) until every Member of the caucus had an opportunity to select a subcommittee gavel. Deliberations on other possible caucus rules changes are ongoing.

REPUBLICAN LEADERSHIP

Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) remained the leader of Senate Republicans but had to face his first-ever leadership challenge by NRSC Chair Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL). With 38 years serving in Senate, and the longest tenure of any Republican Senate leader in history (16 years), Sen. McConnell swatted off both Sen. Scott and attempts this fall by former President Trump to call into question his ability to lead the party in the 118th Congress – where he is set to surpass Democratic Leader Mike Mansfield (D-MT) as the longest serving party leader ever.

The Republicans’ number two position, Republican Whip, will remain in the hands of Sen. John Thune (R-SD) – who will be term limited at the end of the 118th Congress. Sen. John Barrasso (RWY) maintains the third-ranking leadership position of Republican Conference Chair. The major leadership changes for the Senate Republican leadership occurred in the more junior positions. Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV) will take over as Conference Vice Chair, a job that will be vacated by Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) who will become Republican Policy Chair (held in the 117th Congress by retiring Sen. Roy Blunt (R-MO)). It is expected that Sens. John Cornyn (R-TX), Roger Wicker (R-MS), and Chuck Grassley (R-IA) – the longest serving Republican Senator – will maintain their unelected leadership positions as advisors to McConnell. Sen. Steve Daines (RMT) will be the NRSC Chair; his Democratic colleague in Montana, Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) will be one of the vulnerable Senators up for reelection in 2024.

LEGISLATIVE/POLITICAL AGENDA - DEMOCRATS

The President’s party will be more encumbered by the incoming House Republican Majority. Given this, Senate Democrats are likely to focus heavily on two main areas: 1) amplifying and bolstering the significant legislative accomplishments of the previous two years of President Biden’s first term, including ongoing implementation of the American Rescue Plan Act, the Bipartisan Infrastructure law, the Chips and Science Act, the Inflation Reduction Act, the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act, the PACT Act, and more; and 2) nominations. As mentioned previously, the most significant aspect of Democratic control of the Senate is continuing the ability to confirm key Biden Administration officials, many of whom will be integral in the implementation efforts of the aforementioned laws, as well as judicial nominations. To date, the Democratic Senate has confirmed 84 judges nominated by President Biden, including Supreme Court Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson, 25 Court of Appeals judges, and 58 District Court judicial nominations.

Additionally, Democrats and the Administration are likely to seek opportunities for bipartisan work on a handful of issues beyond the annual “must-pass bills” of appropriations and the National Defense Authorization Act. Discussions on topics ranging from workforce and job training to climate and clean energy, cannabis reform, immigration reform, and more will remain top priorities for many members.

LEGISLATIVE/POLITICAL AGENDA - REPUBLICAN Sen. McConnell will continue his well-disciplined efforts to keep Republican Senators united in their opposition to Biden-Schumer priorities. The self-styled “grim reaper”, Sen. McConnell has deftly blocked Democratic policy objectives, organizing his caucus and working across the aisle with moderate Sens. Krysten Sinema (I-AZ) and Joe Manchin (D-WV). He will continue to slow down consideration of the President’s nominations – especially judicial – as a key negotiating tool.

Unlike the 117th Congress, where Sen. McConnell's Conference acted as the sole bulwark against the Democratic agenda, the Senate Republicans will be bolstered by an energized House

Republican conference set to pass an aggressive series of bills early in the session. Unlike the House Republican conference, which often coordinates a specific platform for its members to push and campaign on, do not expect Senate Republican leadership to lay out a formal agenda. Both chambers will have shared priorities to curb inflation, reduce spending, address rising crime, focus on the border crisis, and improve economic policies. Expect Sen. McConnell look for policies that unite his caucus and put the White House on the defense.

Committee leaders are likely to include:

Aging Bob Casey (PA)

Mike Braun (IN) Agriculture Debbie Stabenow (MI) John Boozman (AR) Appropriations Patty Murray (WA) Susan Collins (ME) Armed Services Jack Reed (RI) Roger Wicker (MS) Banking Sherrod Brown (OH) Tim Scott (SC) Budget Sheldon Whitehouse (RI) Lindsey Graham (SC) Commerce Maria Cantwell (WA) Ted Cruz (TX) Energy Joe Manchin (WV) John Barrasso (WY) EPW Tom Carper (DE) Shelley Moore Capito (WV) Finance Ron Wyden (OR) Mike Crapo (ID) Foreign Relations Bob Menendez (NJ) Jim Risch (ID) HELP Bernie Sanders (I-VT) Bill Cassidy (LA) Homeland Security Gary Peters (MI) Rand Paul (KY) Indian Affairs Brian Schatz (HI) Lisa Murkowski (AK) Judiciary Dick Durbin (IL) Chuck Grassley (IA) Rules Amy Klobuchar (MN) Deb Fischer (NE) Small Business Ben Cardin (MD) Joni Ernst (IA) Veterans Affairs Jon Tester (MT) Jerry Moran (KS)

NOTABLE DEFEATS, RETIREMENTS, OR NEW ADDITIONS - DEMOCRATS

Democrats successfully defended all 17 of their incumbents while picking up the Pennsylvania seat left open by retiring Sen. Pat Toomey.

Late Republican efforts to expand the Senate map in states such as New Hampshire, Colorado, and Washington were ultimately unsuccessful, with incumbent Senators in each winning handily.

NOTABLE DEFEATS, RETIREMENTS, OR NEW ADDITIONS - REPUBLICAN

Of the 20 seats Republicans were defending in 2022, they held 19 seats and have lost one. No pick-ups of Democratic seats have occurred.

What we do know is that from an ideological perspective, the Senate Republican conference will tick more to the right. The retirements of pragmatic conservatives and their replacement by more right-leaning Senator-elects such as Eric Schmitt (R-MO) (who has already pledged not to support Mitch McConnell for Republican Leader) and Ted Budd (R-NC) threaten to take the Republican conference in a more conservative direction. Victories for challenger Blake Masters in Arizona and former Nevada Attorney General Adam Laxalt – who was a leading advocate for former President Trump recount efforts in the state in 2020 – would continue this trend. The additions of Katie Britt (R-AL), J.D. Vance (R-OH), and Markwayne Mullin (R-OK) are closer to a one-for-one ideological replacement for their predecessors. And, while not racing to the right like the House Republican conference, Senate Republicans are, as a whole, moving further that direction.

Popular governors helped buoy endangered Republicans in toss-up races, such as Ohio and Florida. The Republican victory in Ohio showed the limitations to Democrats' ability to counter former President Trump in Rust Belt states, even when putting forth an experienced and polished moderate candidate. However, Republican losses in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada showed that same messaging strategy in the wrong state can weigh candidates down, as well.