II. HOUSE

OVERVIEW

Republicans regained control of the House of Representatives for the first time since 2018, ending two years of full Democratic control in Washington and ushering in a new era of divided government. Democrats overperformed expectations, holding on to a number of competitive seats and losing the majority by a narrower margin than expected. The new Republican majority will be very focused on executing both their legislative and oversight agendas with an eye towards positioning the party for success in the 2024 elections. Executive Branch officials will quickly face subpoenas and oversight hearings on a wide range of issues in the new Congress.

Midterm elections are largely a referendum on the sitting President, their party, and the economy. In the lead up to the 2022 midterms Republicans had been traveling the country asserting that Democrats' policies are to blame for rising inflation, high energy prices, and a slowing economy. Additionally, Congressional Democrats' use of two reconciliation bills to enact trillions of dollars in new spending became a major argument by the Republicans as wasteful government spending and they emphasized a need for Republican control of the House. Democrats primarily amplified a pro-choice and pro-democracy message in an effort to turn out its base, using the recent Supreme Court decision in the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization case and Republican candidate quality in some races to their advantage.

The new Republican majority will attempt to stymie President Biden's agenda, while also conducting significant oversight of the Administration. Expect the Afghanistan withdrawal, COVID-19 response, southern border issues, and flow of federal dollars to all be high on the oversight priority list, with the conservative wing of the party pushing for even more aggressive tactics. House Republicans will look to move quickly on their legislative and oversight agendas as the 2024 presidential hopefuls will likely start jockeying for the position very early in the cycle.

The 118th Congress will look different than the previous Congress. The House Republican Conference has continued to recruit diverse candidates and will once again grow the number of female members in its ranks. With a slimmer than anticipated majority, House Republican leadership will have to corral both moderate members and members of the conservative wing. On the Democratic side, the narrow margin in the House will give moderates significant

KEY TAKEAWAYS

 Republicans capture majority, will confront the

Biden Administration.  Democrats defied expectations and held back the red wave, giving

Republicans a slim majority.  Rep. Kevin McCarthy is the likely Speaker of the House, expect conservatives to try and extract concessions for their support.  New Democratic leadership team in the 118th Congress.

leverage in any bipartisan legislating. While there might be some room for bipartisan dealmaking over the next two years, expect the divided government and looming 2024 elections to significantly hamper the ability of Congress and the Administration to find common ground.

REPUBLICAN LEADERSHIP (MAJORITY) Republicans held their leadership elections on November 15 and have since elected members to the Steering Committee. The Steering Committee has selected committee chairmen for the 118th Congress for the committees where there was not a contested race. They have yet to select committee chairs for committees with contested races, and those proceedings may be delayed until after the vote for Speaker on January 3.

Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) has been elected by his Republican colleagues to serve as Speaker, but he will still need to garner 218 votes on the House Floor on January 3, 2023, in order to become Speaker of the House. Given the slimmer than anticipated majority for House Republicans, McCarthy may have to remain in deal making mode with the more conservative wing of the Conference in the run up to the Speaker vote to ensure he has the requisite votes. Current Republican Whip Rep. Steve Scalise (R-LA) has been selected to be the Majority Leader; Rep. Tom Emmer (R-MN), the current NRCC Chairman, won the tight race to become Majority Whip, edging out Rep. Jim Banks (R-IN), current RSC Chairman, on the second ballot and Rep. Drew Ferguson (R-GA), current Chief Deputy Whip, on the first ballot; and Rep. Elise Stefanik (RNY) defeated Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL) to remain in her role as Conference Chair. The full results of House Republican leadership elections can be found below:

Speaker: Kevin McCarthy (188-31) Majority Leader: Steve Scalise (unopposed) Majority Whip: Tom Emmer (beat Banks on second ballot, 115-106) Conference Chair: Elise Stefanik (144-74) NRCC Chair: Richard Hudson (unopposed) Conference Vice Chair: Mike Johnson (unopposed) Policy Committee Chair: Gary Palmer (unopposed) Conference Secretary: Lisa McClain (106-62 [Clyde]-38 [Grothman])

DEMOCRATIC LEADERSHIP (MINORITY)

As the dust settled post-election, all eyes were on Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and whether she would seek another term in leadership as Minority Leader or step down from her leadership post. Both she and Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD) decided to step down from Democratic leadership of the House but will remain in Congress. Majority Whip Jim Clyburn's (D-SC) will move to the role of Assistant Minority Leader, the number 4 role in Democratic leadership. It is worth noting that Rep. Hoyer has the option to return to the House Committee on Appropriations, where he has retained his seniority.

A new generation of Democrats has been elected unanimously in the aftermath of Rep. Pelosi and her lieutenants’ announcement to the end their leadership tenures. Current Democratic Caucus Chair Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) was elected Leader, Assistant Speaker Katherine Clark (DMA) was elected to the second ranking position of Minority Whip, and Democratic Caucus ViceChair Pete Aguilar (D-CA) was elected to the third ranking position of Caucus Chair. Rep. Joe Neguse (D-CO) has been chosen as the Chair of the House Democratic Policy and Communications Committee (DPCC) and Reps. Veronica Escobar (D-TX), Dean Phillips (D-MN), and Lauren Underwood (D-IL) have all been selected as Co-Chairs of the DPCC. The chairmanship of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) will be selected by Leader Jeffries.

LEGISLATIVE/POLITICAL AGENDA - MAJORITY House Republicans will be focused on a combined legislative and oversight agenda that builds on the arguments they made in the lead up to the midterms, namely that Democratic policies and spending are to blame for the slowing economy and high prices facing Americans. Combating inflation, lowering energy prices, and increasing the defense budget while cutting non-defense spending will all be legislative priorities for House Republicans. The oversight agenda will focus on issues like the Afghanistan withdrawal, energy policies, the federal government's COVID-19 response, and the situation at the Southern border. Many of these legislative and oversight priorities are captured in the House Republicans' "Commitment to America," which they released in late September. Expect this to be a topline guiding document that Republicans will work to follow as they build out the agenda for the 118th Congress.

The 2024 elections will loom over the party as it waits to see who will announce their intention to run for President and when. Former President Trump announced his intention to run in 2024 on November 16. Former Vice President Pence, Governor DeSantis, and a host of other governors, senators, and former cabinet secretaries will also command a great deal of attention in the first quarter of next year. Republicans will look to shore up key gains they made in seats that President Biden carried in 2020 to ensure they can keep the House majority in the 2024 election

LEGISLATIVE/POLITICAL AGENDA - MINORITY

House Democrats will celebrate more positive results than expected and will need to quickly assess the results to determine what motivated voters to hold key competitive seats and which tactics ultimately led to the loss of others. With a slim margin on the horizon, Democrats will work to shore up unity in their caucus to deny the new majority significant legislative advancements and work to position themselves for success in 2024. Watch for a more vocal moderate bloc emboldened by new and returning Blue Dog Coalition and New Democrat Coalition members and expect the caucus to deploy its most talented messengers on social issues such as reproductive rights, gun violence, and immigration reform. Democrats will also go on the offense against Republicans who won seats carried by President Biden and tie them

to the more conservative wing of the Republican party with the hope that they can win these seats back.

House Democrats will also continue to work alongside the Administration to promote the implementation of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA), the CHIPS and Science Act, and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) with a focus on the localized impact of dollars drawn down from these initiatives.

NOTABLE DEFEATS, RETIREMENTS, OR NEW ADDITIONS - MAJORITY At the time of publication of this report, the following Republican incumbents have succumbed to Democratic challengers: Reps. Steve Chabot (R-OH), Mayra Flores (R-TX), and Yvette Herrell (R-NM). Republicans lost some senior members of the House GOP Conference to retirements and bids for higher office, including Reps. Lee Zeldin (R-NY, lost race for Governor), Kevin Brady (R-TX, retired), John Katko (R-NY, retired), Fred Upton (R-MI, retired), David McKinley (R-WV, lost primary), Tom Rice (R-SC, lost primary), and Rodney Davis (R-IL, lost primary). Reps. Ted Budd (R-NC) and Markwayne Mullin (R-OK) were both successful in their races for the U.S. Senate.

NOTABLE DEFEATS, RETIREMENTS, OR NEW ADDITIONS - MINORITY

At time of publication of this report, the following Democratic incumbents had succumbed to Republican challengers: Reps. Cindy Axne (D-IA), Al Lawson (D-FL), Elaine Luria (D-VA), Tom Malinowski (D-NJ), and Tom O’Halleran (D-AZ). Of note, DCCC Chairman Sean Patrick Maloney (D-NY) was also defeated by a Republican challenger. Democrats lost several members of the caucus to retirements and bids for higher office, including but not limited to Reps. Peter DeFazio (D-OR, retired), Val Demings (D-FL, ran for Senate), Ron Kind (D-WI, retired), Conor Lamb (D-PA, ran for Senate), Stephanie Murphy (D-FL, retired), and Tim Ryan (D-OH, ran for Senate). Rep. Peter Welch (D-VT) was successfully elected to the U.S. Senate. The 118th Congress will include the first Gen-Z Member of Congress ever elected as incoming Rep. Maxwell Frost (D-FL) prepares to be sworn in at age 25.