The Perfect Slosh

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The following article about the American Mid-Term elections in 2010 seeks to explain the surprisingly dramatic swings in the way Americans have voted over the past years. In doing so, it illustrates some of the basic mechanisms of American elections in relation to the party system and form of government in the United States. The contrast to European nations can be striking.

Pre-Reading Activity

a

What kind of impression do you have of elections in the United States?

Write down a few words that characterize them for you.

b

Did you hear anything about the recent American Mid-Term elections in the TV or radio?

c

President Obama’s party, the Democrats, lost support among voters.

What do you think of this? Any ideas about why it happened?

The Perfect Slosh

by Robert Mikkelsen Published November 11, 2010

Have you ever tried to move a pan of water from one place to another in the kitchen? As you walk, the water sloshes from one side to the other and then – just before you set it down – it suddenly for no apparent reason slops over the edge and right down the front of your clothes.

American politics is a little like that.

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On Tuesday, November 3, 2010, power in the House of Representatives in the American Congress changed hands by a wide margin for the second time in two years. In 2008, Democrats elected President Barack Obama and gained 23 new seats of the House total of 435, increasing their majority to 256 over the Republican’s 179. On November 3d, the Republicans struck back and won more than 60 seats to retake the House with a majority of at least 239 over the Democrats 190. (At the time of writing, 6 seats were still uncalled or independent).

See “The Congress – legislative powers”, Access to English: Social Studies, pp. 182-183.

Now, it is not unusual for the President’s party to lose House seats in Mid-Term elections (so called because they come in the middle of the President’s four year term of office). After all, governing means making unpopular decisions.

Someone is bound to be disappointed. However, this November 3d was special.

It witnessed the greatest shift in numbers in the House in sixty years.

So what is going on? Why is the American electorate sloshing back and forth in such an extreme way? Do all those people who loved Obama in 2008 now hate him in 2010?

General slosh factors Some slosh factors are built into the American political system. First there is the simple fact that the US has a two party system. If you are for some reason disappointed or angry about your circumstances and want government to help you (or stop hurting you), you have in practice only two choices, the Democrats or the Republicans. In times of trouble, this leads many voters to vote against

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the party in power, rather than for the party in opposition. This is often called the “throw the bums out” factor.

Then there is the fact that American political parties are not ideological. Rather, they are giant coalitions of often widely different interest groups. The best that can be said is that the Democratic coalition is more liberal and the Republican coalition is more conservative. That means that there is no one party program or clear set of political beliefs to tie many Americans to their party of choice. If an interest group in a party coalition feels its interests are not being represented, it can just not show up to vote – or even end up voting for the other party.

See “Political Parties in the United States”, Access to English; Social Studies, pp. 191-193.

Finally, there is the important fact that the number of Americans who say they belong to either of the two parties has dropped over the past sixty years. Back in the 1950s only about 22% of the electorate did not declare a party affiliation.

Today that has risen to at least 35%. That means that more than one third of the electorate is up for grabs in any national election. Called the “independents,” these unattached voters are the ones who really decide which of the two parties gets a majority in an election. They are the greatest single “slosh factor” in American politics.

Unattached voters respond to their own immediate interests – stress on the word “immediate” – not to ideological or party programs. In a democracy like the United States the electorate has a short memory. That’s why Americans say that “two weeks is a long time in politics.” In this case, it is a question of two

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years – a very long time. By the end of 2010, a set of specific slosh factors were reinforcing one another and sending the American electorate sweeping away from the Democrats and towards the Republicans.

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Specific slosh factors Above all, economic developments favored the Republicans. Americans vote their pocket books and it is no secret that the United States is in the middle of the greatest economic turndown since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Unemployment is over 9%. House prices have fallen. Money is scarce for investment. Consumer spending remains low. Voters blame the party in power – the Democrats – for not doing something (or enough) about it. It doesn’t matter that the recession began under President Bush. It doesn’t help that the Obama administration’s “stimulus package” pumped over $800 billion into the economy to avert an even greater downturn. It doesn’t help that it takes time to turn the world’s largest economy around. Someone is to blame and the Democrats are “it.”

This recession stood in stark contrast to the enormous expectations the Democrats had raised in 2008 when Obama ran under the slogans “Hope” and “Change.” They had mobilized millions of working class and poor people, as well as middle class families suffering from lowered and stagnating incomes, all of whom hoped for better times. In addition, many of Obama’s supporters – particularly the younger supporters – were opponents of America’s wars in the Middle East that President Bush had started. They hoped to see Obama end them.

But two years later, the working and middle classes were actually economically worse off, thanks to the recession. Nor were the wars in the Middle East over.

American troops were still in Iraq and had actually been increased in Afghanistan. It did not help that income levels take time to increase or that

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withdrawal from the Middle East had actually begun. After two years, many who had called themselves Democrats were disillusioned and did not show up to vote in 2010.

President Barack Obama ponders a question during a post-election news conference in the East Room of the White House in Washington

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And just as parts of the Democratic voter “base” were becoming disillusioned, the Republican base was becoming energized. Republicans are the party of small government and low taxes. They attacked the Obama administration for “big government” when it passed its huge economic stimulus packages. They attacked it for passing a health reform bill which they claimed would be ruinously expensive to the tax payer. They declared that the “tax and spend” Democrats were driving the government into ever greater debt, rather than cutting costs and balancing the budget – the correct way to revive the economy, in their view.

In these attacks, they were helped by the new anti-tax, anti-government “Tea Party” movement, which expressed a deep-seated distrust of all government that goes all the way back to the founding of the nation two centuries ago (it is named for the “Boston Tea Party” – a colonial protest against British taxation back in 1773). The Tea Partiers distrusted anyone in power, but particularly the Obama administration with its policy of active government intervention

Tax day Tea Party in Houston in April 2010.

Thousands of protesters, most waving signs with anti-tax slogans, gathered around the nation for a series of rallies modeled after the original Boston Tea Party

to help the people. They helped fire up the campaign against the Democrats.

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To sum up, by the end of 2010 many Democrats were disillusioned, many Republicans were energized and the Tea Party was rallying its supporters in Washington. Beneath all this a deep economic recession rumbled on, spreading discontent. Independent voters across the nation responded to these currents.

Their expectations had also been disappointed. Their fears for the future had not been relieved. They wanted results and they wanted them now. It was a perfect time to “throw the bums out.” The Perfect Slosh.

Consequences: Looking towards 2012 The American federal government is set up as a system of checks and balances.

One consequence of this election will be that President Obama will now have to make compromises with the new Republican majority in the House of Representatives because it has the power to pass the budget bills and other legislation he wishes. Equally, however, the Republicans will have to make compromises with him because he can “veto” (reject) the legislation they pass.

If the two sides cannot agree, then we get “gridlock” – a term derived from traffic jams where there is a total lack of movement – nothing gets passed. But both sides have to be very cautious about creating such a situation. Whoever gets the blame for gridlock may end up paying dearly for it at the polls in 2012.

It has happened before. In 1995 the Republicans got the blame for gridlock and, as a result, Democrat Bill Clinton was re-elected to the White House in 1996.

One of the major issues in the 2010 campaign was the Health Care Reform bill passed last March by the Democratic majority controlling the House at that time. Republicans vowed to repeal the law if they came to power.

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Will that now happen in this new Congress? No. Why? Because Congress is made up of two legislative chambers in America, the House of Representative and the Senate. The Democrats hung on to a working majority in the Senate of at least 53 to 47 (down from 59 to 41). The Republicans can block legislation, but they cannot pass or repeal it without the approval of both the President and the Senate.

See “The Congress – legislative powers”, Access to English: Social Studies, pp. 182-183

This illustrates that as dramatic as the slosh in the Mid-Term election of 2010 seems to have been, not that much power has actually changed hands. And though the Republicans and the Tea Party movement are celebrating their victory in the House wildly, calling it a historic turning point and predicting the end of Obama and the Democrats in 2012, it might be wise to view the matter more coolly. A lot of things can happen before 2012. The economy may recover. The wars in the Middle East may be resolved. The Health Care Reform may prove successful and popular. If any one of these comes to pass, well then, the American electorate might just come sloshing right back across the political landscape in the opposite direction, spilling over everyone.

Two years is a long time in politics.

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ACTIVITIES 1

Discussion

Go back to your thoughts about American elections in the pre-reading activity.

Have any of your impressions of American elections changed? Would you change or add to any of words you used to characterize them? What do you think was the main reason for the election results after having read the article?

2

Understanding the text

Match up the following sentence halves: Part A

Part B

It is not unusual for the President’s party to

a deep-seated distrust of all government.

In practice voters have only two alternatives,

in the middle of an economic downturn.

American political parties are

then we will get gridlock.

One third of the electorate is

without the approval of the Senate and President.

Americans say that two weeks is

lose House seats in Mid-Term elections.

It is no secret that America is

the party of small government and low taxes.

The Tea Party movement has

results and they wanted them now.

The Republican Party is

the Democrats and the Republicans.

Independent voters wanted

a long time in politics.

If the two sides cannot agree,

giant coalitions of widely different interest groups.

The Republicans cannot pass or repeal legislation

up for grabs in an election.

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3

Discussion

a)

For many people outside of the United States, American elections seem more like a circus than an exercise in serious politics. Why do people get this impression? How true do you think it is? Are Norwegian elections so very different?

b)

President Obama raised great expectations abroad, as well as at home.

What do you think Norwegians hoped he would do when he was elected? Do you think Norwegians are disappointed in Obama?

c)

The entire House of Representatives is up for re-election every two years to make sure it represents the will of the American people. Is this the best way to do it? Discuss advantages and disadvantage of having elections this often.

d)

Looking ahead to 2012, what do you think will happen? Will the Democrats make a comeback, recapturing the House, or will the Republicans go on to capture the Senate too? Will Obama be re-elected?

Imagine you could decide the result. What results would you wish?

4

Writing

a)

You have a friend in the United States. Write a letter to your friend explaining why many Norwegians find American elections confusing.

Compare them to elections in Norway. Remember, Americans know very little about other political systems so be careful to explain differences between the two clearly when making your comparisons.

b)

Can there be a thing as too much democracy? Can elections be held too often? Can too many positions be filled by the vote rather than – say – being filled by experts? Write an essay with the title “Democracy – Everything in Moderation.”

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c)

You are a voter who has become fed up with the Tea Party movement and all it stands for. Write a short newspaper editorial in which you explain why government can help people, can be trusted, and has a right to exercise power. Use examples to make your case.

d)

You are a politician in the Democratic Party. Write a memo (memorandum – short note) to your party leadership in which you outline how the Democrats can win the 2012 election, re-take the House of Representatives and re-elect President Barack Obama. Entitle your memo, “The Road to Victory.”

5

Quick Research

Choose one of the following tasks and prepare a brief report of your findings

a)

Find out more about “gridlock” in American government. What happened that set Congress and the President on a collision course in 1995? How did gridlock affect the 1996 election?

http://www.answers.com/topic/gridlock

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_federal_government_shutdo wn_of_1995

http://conservativecolloquium.wordpress.com/2008/03/25/governmentgridlock-is-good/

b)

Find out how successful the Tea Party movement was in the electing the candidates it supported in the Mid-Term Elections of 2010. What is the

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Tea Party movement’s relationship to the Republican Party? What kinds of challenges does the movement face now that the elections are over? http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2010/11/03/5403120-just-32-oftea-party-candidates-win

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-11685512

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2010/11/08/tea-party-warning-forrepublicans-up-in-2012/

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2010/11/08/gop-rep-palin-cost-uscontrol-of-the-senate/ c)

Find out what the new Republican leadership in the House of Representatives has to say about the Health Care Reform Bill passed in 2010. What kind of political actions can the Democrats expect the Republicans to take regarding the bill in the coming two years? http://money.cnn.com/2010/11/04/news/economy/McConnell_health_ care/index.htm

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/39998544/ns/politics-decision_2010/

http://nationaljournal.com/dailyfray/why-republicans-can-t-repealhealth-care-20101104?mrefid=site_search

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6)

Working with Statistics

a)

The image above represents a graphic representation of the answers given by Americans in October 2010 to the following question; “Describe the American Federal Government in one word or phrase.� The larger the letters, the more the number of answers

1)

What seem to be the most common answers?

2)

What positive answers to this question can you find?

3)

Do you think this attitude towards government favored the Democrats or the Republicans in the Mid-Term election?

Source: http://www.gallup.com/poll/143492/americans-image-federal-government-mostly-negative.aspx

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b)

Take a look at the graph above and answer the following questions.

1)

What percentage of Democrats Under 30 thought a lot about the elections in 2006?

2)

What percentage of Republicans Under 30 thought a lot about the elections in 2006?

3)

What percentage of Democrats Under 30 thought a lot about elections in 2010?

4)

What percentage of Republicans Under 30 thought a lot about elections in 2010?

5)

What do these two graphs tell us about the interest of younger Democrats and Republicans in the two elections?

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6)

Does this trend also hold true for voters Democrats and Republicans 30 and over?

7)

What does this graph tell you about the interest in elections in both parties with regard to voters 30 and over compared to voters 30 and under?

c)

Look at the table above and answer the following questions: 1)

What is the most important issue for all three groups asked?

2)

What was the next most important issue for the Republican Party?

3)

What was the next most important issue for the Democratic Party?

4)

Which of the two parties were the Independents most similar to regarding “Healthcare” and “Size of government”?

5)

Which of the two parties do the Independents seem to favor?

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KEY TO ACTIVITIES

2

Understanding the text

It is not unusual for the President’s party to lose House seats in Mid-Term elections.

In practice voters have only two alternatives, the Democrats and the Republicans.

American political parties are giant coalitions of widely different interest groups.

One third of the electorate is up for grabs in an election.

Americans say that two weeks is a long time in politics.

It is no secret that America is in the middle of an economic downturn.

The Tea Party movement has a deep-seated distrust of all government.

The Republican Party is the party of small government and low taxes.

Independent voters wanted results and they wanted them now.

If the two sides cannot agree, then we will get gridlock.

The Republicans cannot pass or repeal legislation without the approval of the Senate and President.

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6)

Working with Statistics

a) 1)

Too Big, Corrupt, Confused, Incompetent, Poor

2)

Good, Fair, Pretty Good, Better, Adequate

4)

Negative

3)

Republicans, because they are the party of small government.

1)

47%

2)

31%

3)

27%

4)

39%

5)

In 2006 young Democrats were more interested than young

b)

Republicans (47% to 31%). In 2010 young Republicans were more interested than young Democrats (39% to 27%).

c)

6)

Yes. 2006: 53% to 49%. 2010: 67% to 43%

7)

Voters 30 and over are more interested in both parties

1)

Economic conditions

2)

The size and power of the federal government

3)

Healthcare

4)

The Republicans

5)

The Republicans

Copyright all pictures: Scanpix