The Northern Miner March 2024 Vol 110 Issue 12

Newly re-elected BC premier creates ministry to tackle mine delays / 8

Could Trump’s deregulation quest speed permitting in Canada too?

BY ALISHA HIYATE

U.S.president-elect Donald Trump made two picks for key posts in his administration last week that signal he’s serious about rolling back environmental regulations and speeding up permitting for oil and gas as well as mining projects — a policy that could put pressure on Canada to do the same.

Trump, who has repeatedly promised the U.S. will “drill baby, drill” for fossil fuels, named Lee Zeldin, a former congressman from New York, as his pick on Nov. 11 to head up the Environmental Protection Agency. Zeldin has promised to roll back “left-wing” regulations while also protecting the environment. He’s endorsed Trump’s call to use the EPA to pursue U.S. “energy dominance” and economic growth.

For Interior Secretary, a post that oversees the management and conservation of federal lands in the U.S., Trump announced Doug Burgum, governor of North Dakota

“We’re going to have to finally speed up our permitting in Canada, otherwise we’re going to get left behind.”

PATRICIA MOHR, ECONOMIST

which will focus on increasing domestic energy supplies by better coordinating federal agencies and adding capacity to the electricity grid.

Deregulation and speeding up permitting were key policies for Trump during his first term, and

Trump 2.0

“When Trump 1.0 came in, he put in through executive orders a number of guidelines to start streamlining the permitting process. Most of those were repealed when Biden came in,” Mariage says.

“So Trump is going to be looking to obviously put those back into force, and these nominations are a clear signal that that’s where they’re

Much of the media focus has been on Trump’s support for fossil fuels, a reversal of Biden’s focus on fighting climate change and speeding the energy transition through the Inflation Reduction Act and other legislation. However, Trump also supports domestic production of critical minerals to reduce reliance on China, and has said that U.S. copper and lithium production should be maximized.

Easing of permitting regulations in the U.S. will also have spill-on effects in Canada, where permitting is not quite as slow, but still excruciating, says Patricia Mohr, a former Scotiabank vice-president and

“If they do that south of the border, we’re going to have to finally speed up our permitting in Canada. Otherwise, we’re going to get left behind,” says Mohr, who also sits Horizon Copper (TSXV: HCU) and is also the former editor of Capitalight Research’s critical minerals-focused newsletter.

“It’s going to create pressure on us because, in British Columbia alone, there are at least six latestage mining projects that could

actually be financed and get going. These are industrial mines, not gold mines. These things exist in B.C., but they need to really be pushed by government to get going.”

Mohr admits some commodity prices aren’t cooperating — nickel for example — but says copper demand has held up despite weak growth in China, which accounts for over half of global demand.

The Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada (PDAC), which advocates for improvements to the regulatory framework, agrees reforms are sorely needed to capitalize on the nation’s mineral potential.

“While there is uncertainty around potential policy changes in the U.S., any moves to streamline permitting there could further heighten competitive pressures on Canada,” Jeff Killeen, PDAC’s director, policy and programs, said in an email to The Northern Miner. “We believe changes are urgently needed, including harmonizing federal and provincial approvals to eliminate duplication, setting clear and predictable timelines for permitting, and ensuring regulatory bodies have the resources to manage applications efficiently.”

Tax impact

Mariage says Canada will also have to consider how to attract investment if Trump follows through with pledges to slash taxes.

“The extractive industry is very capital intense and it’s very risky,

Donald Trump during his first term as president at the G20 Japan Summit in Osaka in June 2019.

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inbrief

DEPARTMENTS

n Aluminum surplus narrows

Aluminum prices are expected to stay elevated this year owing to a tightening market balance, says BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions Group.

Aluminum demand may rise 3.2% year-on-year in 2024 to 70.4 million tonnes compared with a projected 1.9% growth in supply to 70.6 million tonnes, the analytics firm said in a November report. Beyond this year, BMI expects aluminum prices to remain elevated, as demand is supported by the accelerating shift to a green economy.

Indeed, that less traditional industry in China is propping up demand. The country is by far the largest aluminum consumer, expected to take 63.5% of this year’s global demand, BMI said.

On the supply side, BMI said optimism is increasing due to solid output growth from January to August and an improvement in weather conditions in China’s Yunnan province, a key producing region.

Still, it flagged recent disruptions in the raw material market, which have the potential to constrain aluminum output growth, particularly in China.

Despite stronger demand, the primary global aluminum market is still expected to remain in surplus this year, albeit a surplus that’s four times less than previously projected (96,000 tonnes instead of 384,000 tonnes), BMI said.

The aluminum price is expected to respond, with the firm anticipating a 6% increase in average price levels this year. That represents a notable turnaround from last year, where factors drove prices down by 15.6% compared to 2022 levels.

Growing supply concerns in the raw material market and broader economic developments are driving the price, BMI said. It raised its 2024 aluminum price forecast to US$2,450 per tonne from US$2,400 per tonne.

n China limits critmins

China plans to curtail exports of graphite, tungsten and magnesium from Dec. 1. It’s part of a wider push to tighten controls on dual-use technologies that are used for civilian and military purposes, BMO Capital Markets said in a mid-November note.

Restrictions on tungsten were not a surprise. BMO research director Colin Hamilton said.

“Magnesium is potentially the bigger issue however given its importance to a number of aluminium alloys, both for the beverage can and automotive industry.”

In related news, America’s economy could see a US$3.4billion hit if China imposes a total ban on gallium and germanium, according to the United States Geological Survey.

China imposed export licensing controls on mineral commodities containing gallium and germanium last year. Gallium prices could increase by more than 150% and germanium prices by 26% if there’s a total ban, the agency predicts.

“Losing access to critical minerals that constitute a small fraction of the value of products like semiconductors and LEDs (light-emitting diodes) can result in billions of dollars in economic losses,” said Nedal Nassar, lead author of the report.

China supplies 60% of the world’s germanium. It’s used in applications such as fibre optic cables, solar cells and infrared technology.

BY MINING.COM STAFF

n BHP plans US$14B for Chile

BHP (NYSE: BHP) is investing billions to expand copper production in Chile by 430,000 to 540,000 tonnes a year, it said in mid-November. The company’s global long-term production is to stabilize around 1.4 million tonnes annually, a

100,000-tonne rise from current levels.

At the Escondida mine, the world’s largest copper operation, BHP plans investments of US$7.3-US$9.8 billion starting in 2028 to counter ore grade declines and offset the 2029 closure of the Los Colorados plant.

The total copper BHP plans to add with the projects is probably higher than what the market expected, BMO metals and mining analyst Alexander Pearce said.

“Capex intensity, however, is lower than some feared, and much of this is in effect sustaining capital to offset grade decline,” he wrote in a note.

Key projects include a new concentrator producing 220,000-260,000 tonnes annually by 2031, an expansion at Laguna Seca adding 50,000-70,000 tonnes by 2030, and leaching facilities contributing 35,000-55,000 tonnes from 2030.

Total Escondida investment is estimated at US$10-US$14 billion.

BHP is also allocating US$2.8-US$3.9 billion to increase output at Pampa Norte mines, aiming to boost production by 125,000-155,000 tonnes annually.

As global copper demand rises—projected to grow 70% by 2050 driven by renewables and EVs—BHP foresees $250 billion in industry investments over the next decade. It sees Chile remaining pivotal, contributing 28% of global copper supply.

BY MINING.COM STAFF

n Illegal gold boosts Wagner

Russian mercenary Wagner Group has generated over US$2.5 billion from illegal gold mining since the country’s invasion of Ukraine, according to a World Gold Council report in November.

A Vale Base Metals employee at the Creighton Mine in Sudbury, Ont.

CREDIT: JAMES HODGINS/ PENDA PRODUCTIONS

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EDITORIAL

Covering mining’s projects, people, and sticky challenges

BY ALISHA HIYATE

This will be my last editorial for The Northern Miner after 19 years here, and with its sister publications. In December, I’m off to start another adventure outside of mining.

It’s unusual these days to spend nearly 20 years with one entity, so you might ask: what kept me here so long?

Well, there have been some perks. Travel, for one. My work has taken me to a remote exploration camp in the Argentinean Andes; to Canada’s Arctic, and flying by helicopter over craggy fjords on Baffin Island to reach a remote diamond project. I saw a project in Asia, where beer-loving German investors met their match when offered shot after shot of the Chinese spirit baijiu.

I’ve also had the opportunity to meet and cover some of the business world’s most entrepreneurial people. Problem-solvers, risk-takers, people who have an impact in one of the toughest – and most essential – businesses around.

One highlight was interviewing mining legend Pierre Lassonde in his mid-town Toronto home. It had a muti-level library/study, just like in the movies.

I’ve also enjoyed digging into the stories behind new exciting discoveries made by smart young geos like TNM 2021 person of the year Chris Taylor, and 2024 YMP Peter Munk Award winner Scott Berdahl.

The stories that examined and dissected mining’s failures and stickiest challenges — from tailings reforms to the rising clout of Indigenous communities, and guiding coverage of this year’s heap leach failure at the Eagle mine in the Yukon — have been more difficult and complex, but still rewarding.

“I’ve

had the opportunity to meet and cover some of the business world’s most entrepreneurial people.”

A lot has changed in mining over the past 19 years. Here are just a few examples:

Attention to diversity

While women still represent only 15% of the mining workforce globally, there’s much greater recognition now of the importance of diversity in the sector. Rio Tinto released a report two years ago that showed a shocking level of bullying and harassment in the company’s workforce that largely targeted women and minorities. In November it published a follow-up report. Although it identifies some alarming trends since its first report — a rise in bullying as a response to the miner’s “Everyday Respect” initiatives, for example — it’s also something that would never have happened 20 years ago. Rio’s willingness to publicly disclose the troubling findings is commendable and a welcome attempt to address mining’s culture issue.

Canadian diamonds lose their shine

When I first started at the Miner, memories could still easily recall the first exciting 1991 diamond find in Lac de Gras that led to the Ekati mine in the Northwest Territories. One of my first site visits in 2006 was the opening of the Jericho diamond mine in Nunavut, then the third in Canada. That same year, two more mines were being built – Snap Lake in the N.W.T. and Victor in Ontario. Now, the sector’s a sunset industry in Canada, killed by a combination of high costs, a low success rate in finding new, economic mines, and competition from lab-grown diamonds. The Diavik mine is set to close in 2026, leaving just two mines running – Ekati, and Gahcho Kué.

Retail investor migration

While discount brokerages have made DIY investing easy and cheap for retail investors, it’s not exploration plays that they’re buying anymore.

Competition from other speculative assets such as cryptocurrencies have drawn huge amounts of investment since Bitcoin’s birth in 2009. Forbes puts the value of global cryptocurrency at US$3.2 trillion. In comparison, S&P put the value of the global mining sector by market cap at just US$2.2 trillion at the end of 2023.

Critical minerals rise

Western governments have finally come to realize the importance of mining to their economies and national security, and the risk that comes with China’s control of critical minerals supply chains and expertise. They haven’t yet addressed the lengthy permitting timelines that can kill projects and deter investment, but there’s some hope that U.S. president-elect Donald Trump’s deregulation drive could change that.

Before I depart, allow me to say a quick thank you to John Cumming, the former editor-in-chief who hired me and was a great mentor, and to TNM Group president Anthony Vaccaro for promoting me up the ranks.

On a personal note, I’m proud of helping to build a very strong editorial team at the Miner that’s stayed intact for more than two years and produces independent work that’s of value to the industry and to our readers.

I know the publication is in good hands with interim editor-in-chief Colin McClelland, Western editor Henry Lazenby and production/copy editor Blair McBride. TNM

COMMENTARY

Charting the Trump train’s global economic

BY JAMES COOPER

I’ve been on the road over the last few weeks, attending various mining conferences along Australia’s east coast.

One of the key discussion points has been United States president-elect Donald Trump. How will his hard-hitting policies affect China, a key driver of commodity demand?

The industry has been on edge. Clearly, the market is, too, given the steep sell-off in resource stocks since Trump’s re-election victory two weeks ago.

So, why is this happening?

Well, the market is betting that Trump will deliver on his pre-election promises when he takes office in January. His ‘America First’ agenda has sent the U.S. dollar surging, which is bad news for commodities.

But there are some green shoots under a Trump re-election. As I’ll show you, commodities performed surprisingly well during his first term.

US dollar could be key

Just like today, the dollar rallied on the back of Trump’s victory in 2016. Again, that was based on expectations of what this real estate mogul could deliver for the U.S. economy.

Surprisingly, though, the dollar began a long-term slide once Trump took office in 2017. And stayed low throughout the bulk of his term in office.

Over his four-year term, from 2017 to 2021, the dollar dropped 9.85% against the euro, and against the Japanese yen it fell by 10.79%.

Could dollar weakness happen again under Trump’s second term?

Who knows, but it’s a clear example that Trump’s leadership doesn’t necessarily equate to a strong USD.

Why this matters for resource stocks

As I pointed out earlier, the strength of the dollar has been one of the major forces driving weakness in metal markets over the last two weeks.

Commodities and the dollar are typically negatively correlated. When one appreciates, the other tends to fall.

And perhaps that’s one of the reasons commodities surged during Trump’s first term in office.

At the start of Trump’s presidency in 2017, copper traded for just US$2.50 per pound.

But by the end of his term, copper prices had risen to US$3.50 per pound.

A solid gain of around 40%.

However, iron ore traded for just US$76 per tonne at the start of 2017.

Four years later, it doubled to over US$155 per tonne!

So, you might say, sure, but what about the threat of tariffs on Chinese manufactured goods?

Surely, this looms as a significant threat to the Middle Kingdom’s manufacturing sector and commodity demand?

trajectory

Well, tariffs are nothing new for China.

According to the US and European Tax Foundation’s Tariff Tracker, the Trump administration imposed nearly US$80 billion in tariffs from 2018 to 2019.

As U.S workers rejoiced in this seemingly ‘America First’ policy, little did they know that they were footing the bill!

Trump’s 2018/2019 tariffs resulted in one of the most significant tax increases in American history.

Meaning the real loser here wasn’t China; it was the American consumer.

Commodities amid tariffs It’s an example of why you shouldn’t abandon commodity investments based solely on Trump’s tariff threats.

China is already well-versed in navigating U.S. and European trade barriers.

As Trump continues chest-beating on tariffs, I suspect it’ll be business as usual in the Middle Kingdom.

Remember, China has a firm foothold in emerging markets, which means it can quickly expand its manufacturing empire in overseas hubs like Southeast Asia.

Capitalizing on cheap labour, China can drive down the prices of its manufactured goods and offset some of the penalties imposed by U.S. sanctions.

Bigger story building America is set to ‘deglobalize’ under Trump.

Meanwhile, China continues to build its international footprint. Strengthening itself as the epicentre for international trade.

Last week, China signed more than US$10 billion worth of agreements with Indonesia, Australia’s closest neighbour. The focus was on expanding trade ties to support infrastructure, green energy, digital technology and agriculture. China is signing deals, building bridges and securing trade routes across Asia, Africa and South America. And emerging economies are entirely on board.

Meanwhile, the U.S. is clamping up, shutting its borders and imposing penalties on nations that want to trade with it!

It’s why Trump’s ‘America First’ agenda has the potential to strengthen China’s position as a global leader while weakening America’s role.

Ultimately, that could erode the strategic advantage the American economy has held for decades as the traditional leader in international trade.

In my mind, that’s what the market is missing as it pours into U.S.-denominated assets following Trump’s election win.

But that’s perhaps the advantage for resource investors.

Picking up steeply discounted mining stocks or finding other avenues to pivot into emerging markets. TNM

James Cooper is a geologist based in Australia who runs the commodities investment service Diggers and Drillers. You can also follow him on X @JCooperGeo.

The United States sanctioned entities linked to Wagner last year in the United Arab Emirates, Central African Republic (CAR) and Russia, targeting their exploitation of natural resources in CAR and Mali, noted report led by Dominic Raab, former U.K. Deputy Prime Minister. Wagner’s operations fuel conflicts and empower extremist groups including Islamic State and Al-Qaeda in the Sahel region, Raab said.

Globally, illegal gold mining finances armed groups. In Colombia, it funds the Clan del Golfo, the National Liberation Army and FARC dissidents, who derive 20% of their revenue from such activities. Sudan reportedly loses US$2 billion annually to illicit gold mining.

Artisanal and small-scale mining, involving up to 20 million workers across 80 countries, contributes 20% of global gold production but is fraught with risks like mercury use, child labour, and trafficking. In La Rinconada, Peru, over 4,500 girls have been trafficked for sexual exploitation in mining regions, according to the report.

Raab urged international action, including International Criminal Court investigations into Wagner’s gold trade and stricter border controls by Interpol. It recommends sanctions, such as asset freezes and visa bans, on officials linked to illegal mining operations and calls for G7 and G20 nations to recognize illicit gold flows as a global security threat. BY

n Court clears BHP, Vale

A Brazilian court has cleared BHP (NYSE: BHP), Vale (NYSE: VALE) and their joint venture Samarco of criminal responsibility for the 2015 Fundão dam collapse, Brazil’s worst environmental disaster.

The incident released 40 million cubic metres of mining waste. It killed 19 people and polluted the Rio Doce river, reaching the Atlantic Ocean.

The court ruled that federal prosecutors failed to prove the companies caused the disaster.

“The documents, reports, and witness testimonies examined did not identify specific individual actions that directly and decisively contributed to the dam’s collapse,” the court said in its ruling.

The prosecutor’s office said it plans to appeal the decision. Samarco’s then-president, Ricardo Vescovi, was among those acquitted. The ruling affirms the company’s compliance with legislation, he said.

The companies still face civil claims. These include a recent 170-billion reais (US$29.93 billion) settlement with Brazilian authorities for reparations. BHP said it is committed to supporting recovery efforts for affected communities and the environment. Vale declined to comment.

Charges originally included qualified homicide, flooding and environmental crimes. By 2019, authorities dropped the homicide charges. The statute of limitations caused some environmental charges to expire.

Separately, BHP faces a US$47-billion lawsuit in London involving over 600,000 claimants, municipalities and businesses. In July, BHP and Vale agreed to share the cost of any damages awarded.

BY MINING.COM STAFF

n Antofagasta puffs hydrogen

Chile-focused Antofagasta aims to become the first mining company to use a hydrogen-powered locomotive in South America. It’s part of the copper producer’s efforts to develop alternatives to fossil fuels, reduce greenhouse gas emissions and make mining more sustainable.

FCAB, the miner’s rail transport division, unveiled in November a hydrogen-powered train that is to connect Antofagasta city and the regional port starting next year.

“This milestone will allow us to learn about this new fuel, which only emits water vapour and hot air, unlike diesel,” Antofagasta CEO Iván Arriagada said in a release. “We want to explore other possible uses of this fuel in the future, when the technology is more mature.”

The 1,000-kilowatt train, developed by China’s largest locomotive manufacturer, CRRC Qishuyan, features a high-capacity battery and an on-board hydrogen storage system operating at 35 megapascals, a high pressure. Its lightweight design reduces the overall weight by about 30 tonnes compared to other hydrogen models.

“Our commitment to the community of Antofagasta and to our clients means we explore all available technologies to progressively reduce our greenhouse gas emissions and, in this way, contribute to combatting climate change,” FCAB general manager David Fernández said in the same release.

The locomotive, seen as key to advancing the group’s decarbonization plan, is to transport sulphuric acid, copper concentrate, anodes, cathodes and other minerals.

BY MINING.COM STAFF

inbrief

The Northern Miner announces our gold and silver giveaway winners

CONTEST | Prizes include physical precious metals in coin or bar form

BY NORTHERN MINER STAFF

The Northern Miner is pleased to announce the winners of our first ever gold and silver giveaway! There were three prizes up for grabs. The first is a 1-oz. Canadian Maple gold coin; the second is a 10-oz. Germania silver bar; and the third prize is a 1-oz. Canadian silver coin.

Thanks to all of our valued readers who entered for a chance to win between the time we opened the giveaway in late May and the time we closed it on Oct. 15. Congratulations to our winners!

1st Place:

Jon Ward

Jon Ward of Vancouver, B.C. has won a 1-oz. Canadian Maple gold coin. John is an investor relations and capital markets professional, leading investor engagement and marketing initiatives for Inventa Capital companies. Currently also serving as the vice-president of corporate development at Targa Exploration, Jon brings expertise in corporate strategy, financial market communications, stakeholder relations, and business development. Originally from Brisbane, Australia, and now based in Vancouver, Jon combines global perspective with industry knowledge to drive growth and connect companies with strategic investment opportunities.

2nd Place:

Kate Stephens

Kate Stephens of Vancouver has won a 10-oz. Germania silver bar. Kate is a seasoned marketing communications professional with over 20 years of experience across the mining, architecture and aerospace industries. For the past decade, she has been with Ausenco, where she is senior marketing manager for North America, leading strategic marketing initiatives that elevate brand awareness. She loves how the team at Ausenco is always pushing boundaries, keeping each day dynamic and rewarding.

3rd Place:

Kevin Blackshaw

Kevin Blackshaw of Bradford, Ont., is the recipient of a 1-oz. Canadian silver coin. Kevin is the director of business development at Quantec Geoscience. He’s been at Quantec for 30 years and has more than four decades of experience in mineral exploration. Kevin is a graduate of the geology technology program at Cambrian College in Sudbury, Ont.

High Grade Silver

WORLD'S TOP GOLD PRODUCERS IN 2023

By Blair McBride

Global gold production by volume came to about 3,421 tonnes in 2023. Using data from the World Gold Council, The Northern Miner ranks the top three countries on each of the seven continents by output in 2023. China, already the leader for producing many critical minerals, accounted for about 10% of world yellow metal production last year, though Africa produced the most by continent.

indepth

Agnico Eagle, Teck among winners of 2025 PDAC awards

HONOURS | Five recipients; discoveries, community work recognized

BY BLAIR MCBRIDE

The Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada (PDAC) has unveiled the names of five award winners at its upcoming convention in Toronto on March 2-5.

The Bill Dennis Award goes to the exploration team who discovered the East Gouldie gold deposit at Agnico Eagle Mines’ (TSX: AEM; NYSE: AEM) Canadian Malartic mine in Quebec’s Abitibi region, just west of Val-d’Or. The Canadian Malartic General Partnership, a 50-50 venture between Agnico Eagle and Yamana Gold, made the discovery in 2018, before Agnico and Pan American Silver (TSX: PAAS; NASDAQ: PAAS) acquired Yamana last year.

The Skookum Jim Award, recognizing Indigenous achievement in the industry, will go to David Kritterdlik for his efforts to integrate traditional Inuit knowledge with Western science while working with Agnico Eagle in Nunavut. Among his key achievements is the creation of the Kivalliq Elders Advisory Committee, which gives guidance to the Meliadine and Meadowbank mines on environmental and community issues.

Teck Resources (TSX: TECK.A, TECK.B; NYSE: TECK) and the UN Women’s Originarias Program are the recipients of the Sustainability Award, which honours leadership in environmental protection and strong community relations. Originarias, a partnership program between Teck and UN Women, has since 2016 worked to empower Indigenous women in Chile’s

northern Tarapacá region by training them in leadership and advocacy skills.

The Onto Discovery Team has been named the winner of the Thayer Lindsley Award, recognizing international mineral discoveries, for its Onto copper-gold deposit find in Sumbawa, Indonesia. In 2020, members of a joint venture between Vale (NYSE:

JOINT VENTURE ARTICLE

VALE) subsidiary Eastern Star Resources (80%) and Indonesian miner ANTAM (20%) made the discovery at Onto. It’s a tier-one deposit containing about 2.1 billion tonnes grading 0.86% copper and 0.48 gram gold per tonne. John Robins is the winner of the Viola R. MacMillan Award for his work in mineral discoveries and starting such successful compa-

nies as Kaminak Gold, Northern Empire, and Stornoway Diamond over a 35-year career. Robins is the founder and leader of the Discovery Group alliance of companies, which has generated more than $1 billion in equity raisings. He has helped lead mergers and acquisitions worth more than $3 billion, including the sales of Great Bear Resources to Kinross Gold (TSX: K; NYSE: KGC) for $1.8 billion, and Kaminak Gold to Goldcorp for over $500 million.

“The 2025 award recipients embody the expertise, passion and drive that define excellence in mineral exploration and development,” Raymond Goldie, PDAC president, said in a release. “Their remarkable accomplishments demonstrate the crucial role of innovation, resourcefulness, and leadership in uncovering the minerals that power our modern world.”

Since its establishment in 1977, the award series has recognized exemplary individuals and companies who have made outstanding contributions to the global mining industry.

Winners will be celebrated during the PDAC 2025 Convention at the Awards Gala & Nite Cap on March 4, 2025, at the Fairmont Royal York Hotel in Toronto. TNM

How ICP Premium harnesses algo trading to work for miners

BY NORTHERN MINER STAFF

High frequency trading has transformed the capital markets since its introduction over 20 years ago – in many ways for the better, says David Campbell, one of the founders of Torontobased consultancy Insight Capital Partners.

But it’s also introduced challenges for junior miners.

“It’s, in my view, inadvertently hurt this sub-sector of the marketplace because of the relative liquidity issues that are occurring, especially when things don’t look good in the sector overall,” he said.

While these traders add liquidity to the market, they use a mathematical approach to trading to maximize their chances of making a profit that can decouple a stock from its fundamental value, Campbell explains.

“When they come into the marketplace, they’ll make a determination of how they should enter their order strategies,” he says. “Because we’ve seen a downtrend in the TSX Venture over the last 10 to 12 years, they will determine statistically, at the automated level, that they are better off to enter their securities from the sell side.”

That activity can overwhelm the pricing signals for small and mid-cap companies, says Campbell, who has over 25 years of experience in capital markets, including running trading desks for large institutional investors, and expertise in electronic trading with Virtu Financial predecessor ITG.

“And therefore, we have what we call ‘heavy’ quotes, meaning the quote looks much heavier for sale and there’s more offerings.”

But what if small and midcap companies could harness electronic trading to their benefit?

Campbell and his business partner Ian Clark at ICP recently launched a market making service based on an algorithm that they say does just that.

‘Balancing’ the quotes

ICP Securities’ proprietary algorithm, ICP Premium, helps balance out quotes for the company’s clients, Campbell says. Launched in January this year, it’s already proven it can make the quotes more attractive to institutions and the high-frequency traders who follow and magnify that activity.

Balancing the quotes in this way will convince some electronic

traders to enter a stock from the buy side instead – because they’re statistically better off doing so.

“Once we do this for enough time and with the consistency of the market maker on the quote operating at the millisecond speed, that combines to send the signals that this quote is balanced,” Campbell says.

In the six-month period ending in June, ICP Premium helped increase liquidity for its clients by 100%, while the market capitalization of companies valued at $50 million or above rose by an average of 22%.

“We are phenomenally delighted with those results given the time period they occurred in,” Campbell said, adding financing was tough because of uncertainty over interest rate cuts at the time.

Since ICP released those initial results, it says it’s almost doubled its client base, about 60% of which are in mining.

ICP Premium also delivers monthly reports with a senior trader available to share real-time insights into a client stock’s trading.

That provides a clearer understanding of what the market is valuing them at, and therefore their true cost of capital.

Incidentally, Campbell says the algorithm hasn’t uncovered any evidence of the naked short-selling some juniors say plagues their stocks.

“We’re not saying it does not exist, but we haven’t seen it in the client bases that we have followed – i.e. we are able to trace securities back to where they come from and where they go.”

Tracking anonymous trading

The “sweet spot” for ICP Premium and where it’s had great success in helping stock prices rise is in companies with a market cap of between $50 and $300 million, which high frequency traders are already active in.

But ICP has also seen positive results in early stage, high-risk companies with market caps under $50 million as the algorithm doubled average daily trading volume compared with the previous 12 months.

And companies with market caps of over $1 billion are also interested in ICP Premium, especially interlisted stocks that see some “gamification” of trading patterns, and to track where anonymous trades are coming from.

“We can help them understand those larger trade flows,” he says. “For example, if we uncover

that we see a predominance of buying coming out of Europe and management knows that they were just at a conference or on a roadshow there, they’ll have a good understanding if they’re getting the kind of response that they’re looking for. It’s very difficult for management teams to untangle that otherwise.”

Although other market makers use automated implementationstyle algorithms, they predominantly enter orders manually, Campbell says. In contrast, the low-latency ICP Premium algorithm is co-located in the same data centres that host the exchange engines, making it at least 20,000 times faster than a human.

ICP Premium’s success comes from adapting the traditional market making service to the new technology that’s been introduced over the past 15 years, Campbell said. And with high-frequency traders representing a growing share of overall institutional activity (around 40% in the United States and 32% in Canada), it’s in companies’ best interest to work with them.

“We’ve applied the same processes, but in a new language that speaks to this new community that has not existed in the market before,” Campbell said.

The preceding Joint Venture Article is PROMOTED CONTENT sponsored by Insight Capital Partners and produced in co-operation with EarthLabs, which owns The Northern Miner Group. Visit: www. insightcapitalpartners.com for more information.

PDAC Awards Gala and Nite Cap event. PROSPECTORS AND DEVELOPERS ASSOCIATION OF CANADA

Permitting delays impact BC projects valued at $38B, AME says

REGULATION | Newly created ministry to focus on near-construction projects

BY HENRY LAZENBY

British Columbia’s exploration sector has over 60 critical mineral projects waiting for permits. It’s a $38-billion pileup of economic opportunities, some waiting indefinitely, Association for Mineral Exploration (AME) president and CEO Keerit Jutla says.

Without action, B.C. risks falling further behind Ontario and Quebec, whose streamlined policies and targeted funding have helped them attract more exploration funding, Jutla said. His group represents about 5,000 members.

“B.C. can choose to be a worldclass jurisdiction or let opportunity slip away,” Jutla told The Northern Miner in Vancouver in mid-November. “Clear permitting timelines, stable policies, and strong partnerships with Indigenous communities are essential. A project’s viability shouldn’t hinge on bureaucratic delays.”

The permitting backlog poses existential challenges for the exploration industry, said Jutla, a lawyer with a decade of experience in the resources sector. Premier David Eby, leader of the recently re-elected New Democratic Party (NDP) government, signalled he’s aware of the problem by creating a new ministry to oversee advanced critical minerals projects.

In mid-November, he split the Ministry of Energy, Mines and Low Carbon Innovation into two:

Mining and Critical Minerals, and Energy and Climate Solutions. Jagrup Brar, the first minister in the new focused role, will focus on 17 near-construction projects and lead reforms to the Mineral Tenure Act (MTA).

Eby said the restructuring positions B.C. to leverage its copper, lithium, and rare earth reserves, materials that are critical for electric vehicles, batteries, and renewable energy.

“The transition to a low-carbon future represents a generational opportunity we must seize, not abandon,” he said during the new cabinet’s swearing-in ceremony on Nov. 18.

The NDP secured a slim majority in the Oct. 19 election, winning 47 out of 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly.

Jutla said the new ministry’s creation is “a significant and important step” by the government.

“I see this government beginning to implement some of the recommendations industry has made,” he said.

Unworkable status quo

The changes can’t come too soon. Explorers face inconsistent timelines and poor communication. Some companies have abandoned projects or lost funding tied to exploration deadlines. The govern-

ment’s ability to reform regulations will determine if it can seize the moment, Jutla said.

“Explorers need certainty,” he said. “If you’re spending millions on drilling and staking, you can’t have a permit delayed indefinitely.”

Jutla warns that B.C.’s reputation as a mining powerhouse is at stake. B.C. competes with established mining hubs like Australia, Chile, Ontario and Quebec. Their infrastructure and investor-friendly policies attract capital, he said.

Ontario’s Mining Act, for example, mandates consultation before exploration begins. This proactive model contrasts sharply with B.C.’s reactive stance, Jutla said.

Both provinces have funding programs in place to attract exploration, such as Ontario’s annual $13-million Junior Exploration Program. It includes $4 million for critical minerals. Quebec also has large funding mechanisms and fast permitting that attract significant investment. Jutla says both provinces outshine B.C. in offering clear and predictable frameworks.

“Investors will go where they see stability and efficiency,” Jutla said. “Right now, that’s not B.C.” Mineral Act review Four and a half months remain until a B.C. Supreme Court deadline requiring the province’s mines ministry to revise the MTA to meet Indigenous consultation requirements. In September last year, the court ruled that the current act allows automatic registration of

mineral claims without consulting Indigenous communities, which is inconsistent with the province’s duty to consult.

It gave the province 18 months to reform the legislation, requiring explorers to consult with First Nations before registering mineral claims.

Jutla said the government’s initial response has been too slow, adding that any delays in the review process hurts the industry’s ability to contribute and adapt to new regulations.

On the other hand, the government surprised stakeholders in March, by moving quickly to restrict mineral claim registrations and mining in the Gitxaała and Ehattesaht First Nations’ territories. The measures aim to safeguard Indigenous interests during the MTA reform process, though they were put in place without industry consultation.

The new NDP government has committed to implementing guaranteed permit review timelines while maintaining environmental and safety standards.

However, B.C. leads in prioritizing reconciliation, which Jutla says is the right thing to do. Federal and provincial equity funds now allow First Nations to take ownership stakes in mineral projects, creating long-term benefits for Indigenous communities and fostering partnerships that can strengthen the industry over time.

Osisko’s Cariboo gold project faces legal threat as Xatśūll demand consent

PERMITTING | BC First Nation says proposed mine will impact health, cultural ties

BY HENRY LAZENBY

The British Columbia government issued key permits for Osisko Development’s

(TSXV: ODV; NYSE: ODV) Cariboo gold project on Nov. 21, just two weeks after the Xatśūll First Nation said its concerns hadn’t been addressed in the permitting process.

The project, in east-central B.C. threatens community health, cultural sites, and traditional practices due to potential contamination and restricted land access, the nation said in a Nov. 7 statement. Key issues include the potential negative impact on the threatened Southern Mountain subspecies of the Barkerville woodland caribou and concerns over cumulative environmental effects that infringe on Xatśūll’s Aboriginal rights.

“If the permitting processes move ahead without addressing our concerns, any permits that are issued will be highly vulnerable to legal challenges,” Chief Rhonda Phillips said at the time.

The Xatśūll had called on the B.C. government and Osisko to halt the project until its issues are resolved, and its free, prior and informed consent is granted.

The operating permit issued to Barkerville Gold Mines, owned by Osisko, is the first approval under B.C.’s modernized 2018 Environmental Assessment Act.

An Environmental Management Act permit is still pending, with a decision expected soon, to authorize waste management.

A January 2023 feasibility study outlined an initial production start next year. The project received an environmental assessment certificate last October, with final permitting expected by this month. It aims for 164,000 oz. gold annually, peaking at over 220,000 oz. during its 12-year mine life.

The project requires an initial investment of $137 million, with an additional $451 million for expansion, totalling $588 million for the life of the project. It has an after-tax net present value of $502 million at a 5% discount rate and a 21% internal rate of return at a US$1,700 per oz. gold price.

Supports resource projects

The Xatśūll says it wants sustainable development but insists it must be done in accordance with the Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples Act (DRIPA)

and the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples (UNDRIP).

They cite the Mount Polley tailings disaster of Aug. 4, 2014 as an example of how things can go wrong.

“Xatśūll Territory is ‘ground zero’ for the harmful effects of the province’s unilateral regulation of resource extraction activities, which resulted in the ongoing environmental catastrophe of the

Mount Polley tailings failure,” Phillips alleged.

The nation complains it can’t fully exercise its Aboriginal title and rights. Mining disturbances disrupt essential rituals and seasonal gatherings, and erode the Xatśūll’s profound connection to the land and their ancestors, Phillips said.

‘Good faith’

Osisko said in a Nov. 7 press release it would work with Indigenous part-

ners, including the Xatśūll, even as permit decisions were pending.

Osisko Development, through its reviews and permits, addressed 3,500 comments, chair and CEO Sean Roosen said in a news release.

“We have made good faith and reasonable efforts in the past two years to reach agreement with Xatśūll First Nation, including reasonable offers for financial and other benefits along substantially similar frameworks as those offered to, and agreed by, other Indigenous communities,” Roosen said.

The mines ministry said it could not comment, as it is in a caretaker role after the recent elections. The result gave the New Democratic Party 47 of 93 seats, enough to form a majority government.

But, in the background, the ministry said it continued to engage with the Xatśūll about natural resource development in its territory. The province remains committed to timely statutory decision-making, it said in a statement to The Northern Miner Osisko Development shares traded for $2.59 apiece before press time, having touched $1.89 and $4.20 over the past 12 months. It has a market capitalization of $355.1 million. TNM

Osisko Development's Cariboo gold project in B.C. OSISKO DEVELOPMENT

AME president and CEO Keerit Jutla. ASSOCIATION FOR MINERAL EXPLORATION

B2Gold CEO Clive Johnson on Mali dangers and a life in mining

PEOPLE | Newest mine in Canada set for 2025 startup

BY ALISHA HIYATE

Clive Johnson has built a reputation for making successful bets on geologically promising jurisdictions that make others nervous.

As president and CEO of Bema Gold, he led the company on early successful forays into Chile in the late 1980s and Russia in the late 1990s.

And after Bema was acquired by Kinross Gold (TSX: K; NYSE: KGC) in 2007 for its prized Kupol gold-silver mine, at the time under construction in Russia’s Far East, he led Bema’s successor company B2Gold (TSX: BTO) into Nicaragua, the Philippines, Namibia and Mali.

“Part of our strategy is to go where others fear to tread — or to be ahead of the pack,” Johnson told The Northern Miner in an interview. “That’s where you get some very good opportunities.”

Those opportunities can also come with turbulence — for example, skepticism about the company’s entry into Russia, especially at a time when the gold price was under US$300 per ounce.

“A lot of people at the time thought, ‘Clive and the guys, they’ve completely lost the plot. There’s no way they’re gonna succeed in financing and building a mine in the Far East of Russia in a very cold environment, similar to the Yukon.”

More recently, B2Gold shares have been punished this year for the company’s exposure to military-ruled Mali, which is fighting off jihadist insurgents with help from Russia’s Wagner Group.

The country will account for 55% of its 2024 production, and the government has been pressing for greater ownership of gold mines and more taxes after passing a new mining code last year.

Johnson notes that B2Gold reached an agreement in September that keeps the status quo on income

taxes and government ownership (20%) of its large Fekola mine in the country under the previous 2012 code. But he says that the market reaction has been overdone. (B2Gold shares are down 5% yearto-date against gold’s 28% increase this year).

“There’s no evidence at all the government is looking to expropriate or take over the gold mines in the country. They want payments

“Part of our strategy is to go where others fear to tread — or to be ahead of the pack.”

for taxes in the past and they want a bigger piece of the pie going forward,” Johnson said, adding it’s a common trend in the industry internationally. “Mining is a huge part of the economy and they desperately need the revenue.”

Still, the government has detained personnel from Barrick Gold (TSX: ABX; NYSE: GOLD) and Resolute Mining (LSE: RSG; ASX: RSG) — the former for a few days in September — amid talks on taxes and the mining code. Resolute staff, including CEO Terence Holohan, were released on Nov. 20 after being held for 12 days. That came after the company said it would pay US$160 million in taxes Mali said it was owed.

“You never want to see it get to a level like that, and I hope there is a quick resolution,” Johnson said on Nov. 13. “One of the important things to recognize is that every company there, they all have different mining codes and therefore different issues or negotiations with the government about taxation and back taxes.”

Fekola is forecast to produce up to 450,000 oz. gold this year. B2Gold has been reassured enough by its agreement with Mali that it decided to go ahead with its Fekola Regional development, which will see ore trucked to the Fekola mill from satellite deposits about 20 km north, adding 100,000 oz. of gold a year in production. Fekola Regional will be developed under the 2023 mining code with Mali owning 30% of the project (compared to 20% at Fekola).

Judgment calls

These types of judgment calls have sometimes perplexed others, but

they’ve also been at the core of some of Johnson’s biggest successes.

To understand how the Bema and B2Gold teams got their risk appetite, you’d have to go back to the 1970s.

Johnson got his start in exploration as a line cutter and claim staker with B.C. and Yukon focused contractor Bema Industries, started in the 1970s by a group that included his older brother, Ian. It was just a summer job for the 19-year-old to pay his way through university, where he was studying political science.

“I was the youngest of the group, and that’s where I learned

a lot about the industry, and being entrepreneurial,” the 67-year-old executive said.

He decided not to return for his third year of studies because the company was growing so rapidly. Instead, working with Bema Industries Johnson found his niche as a problem-solver, doing expediting and logistical work for companies exploring in the Yukon — and found his calling as an entrepreneur.

The group, consisting of original core founders Mike Beley, Rick Barclay, Gary Nordin and Clive’s brother Ian, had plenty of experience in Western Canada. But they weren’t sure they could finance and build a mine there because of uncertainty around permitting, timing and Indigenous support and participation in projects at that time.

So the team decided to merge three of its exploration ventures into Bema Gold and search for international opportunities instead.

Taking a leap

That’s where Johnson’s continued fascination with politics and history has proven useful.

In 1988, Bema was a first mover into Chile, at the time ruled by dictator Augusto Pinochet.

“There were a lot of raised eyebrows about that,” Johnson admits.

But the team saw the major copper producer’s potential for gold and also believed Pinochet’s rule would come to an end. They pounced on an opportunity to acquire the Refugio deposit.

Pinochet’s regime did end in 1990, and Johnson notes the years

Clive Johnson

A gold pour at B2Gold’s Otjikoto mine in Namibia. B2GOLD

Above: B2Gold’s Goose project in Nunavut in February. Below: A fuel truck convoy on the winter ice road to Goose in April. B2GOLD

Clive Johnson

indepth

Exploration spending to stay flat despite Trump pledges, strong gold

prices, S&P says

FINANCE | Tight market likely to limit fieldwork budgets

BY HENRY LAZENBY

The amount spent to find new mineral sources may grow little next year, even if gold prices continue their record run and president-elect Donald Trump cuts red tape, according to S&P Global mining analysts.

Further easing of interest rates won’t significantly dent a tight financing market that will likely limit next year’s exploration budget increases. And that could raise concerns for majors who increasingly depend on their smaller counterparts for discoveries, analysts said during a Nov. 13 webcast.

“The reality is that juniors often lead the charge in finding new deposits,” Mark Ferguson, director of metals and mining research, said during S&P Global’s quarterly State of the Market webinar.

“When they’re underfunded, the whole pipeline feels it.”

The cautious outlook comes as global exploration budgets for nonferrous metals declined by 3% in 2024 to US$12.5 billion from US$12.9 billion last year, with juniors bearing the brunt of the cuts. Some high commodity prices haven’t helped juniors raise capital. Even gold exploration is hurting.

Projects pipeline

The effects of shrinking budgets and financing struggles have shown up in S&P’s measure of new exploration activity. Its pipeline activity index (PAI), which tracks drilling, financing and project milestones, dropped to 63 in the third quarter of 2024 — the lowest level since 2016.

As new activity declined, the exploration price index (EPI) rose to a record high at 203. It reflects metals price trends that companies explore for, such as gold, copper, nickel, and others, and not the actual cost of exploration. The rise was due to steadily rising gold prices and a recovery in some other commodity prices.

The gap between the PAI and

EPI shows that, while prices to sell some metals are good, investment in new projects is low. This signals that companies are prioritizing existing assets over high-risk explo ration, S&P said.

“This trend (of lower exploration spending) aligned with a cautious investment landscape and a con servative approach from investors,” associate research analyst Jasper Madlangbayan said. “Juniors have faced some of the hardest hits as financing has dried up.”

Critical minerals

However, there could be resilience in critical minerals as economies shift to renewable energy and elec trification, the analysts said.

“Critical minerals remain a bright spot,” Francesca Price, senior analyst for critical minerals at S&P Global, told the webinar. “There’s still inves tor interest in supply chains that secure access to these resources out side traditional, more geopolitically challenging regions.”

So far this year, overall drill ing rates fell for nearly all metals. Nickel projects had 53% fewer drill holes than the previous quarter.

“Though we’ve seen significant decreases in drilling and new proj ects, there’s still hope for a recov ery if metal prices hold steady,” Madlangbayan said.

For next year, the analysts expect copper prices to average US$9,825 per tonne on the London Metals Exchange compared with US$9,331.50 per tonne in mid-No vember, driven by stock depletion and seasonal demand. Nickel is forecast to average US$16,995 per tonne versus US$15,897 per tonne around now. They expect a surplus to be maintained by high output from Indonesia and China, which together will account for 78.2% of global production by 2028. Geographic contrasts Australia, home to many junior explorers, saw the largest budget drop as juniors struggled to finance projects. Western Australia, a hub

Risks rise in Mali as junta detains mining execs

AFRICA | Unrest arcs across continent

BY COLIN MCCLELLAND

Resolute Mining (ASX: RSG; LSE: RSG) said it would pay Mali’s military government

US$160 million to end a tax dispute over the Syama gold mine and secure the release of CEO Terence Holohan and two senior executives.

for gold and base metals, suffered the most, S&P said.

“Australia’s large junior population is simply not able to sup

It was the second time in two months the ruling junta has targeted mining personnel over payments as it moves to enforce a new mining code. It briefly held several Barrick Gold (TSX: ABX; NYSE: GOLD) employees in October. Analysts said the practice could spread across Africa’s troubled Sahel region.

Holohan and his colleagues were released on Nov. 20 after 12 days in an office complex in Bamako, the capital. Resolute said it had signed a protocol about shifting the mine under the coun-

try’s new mining code from previous rules and that all disputes with the government were settled. It plans to follow its initial US$80 million payment with an equal amount within months.

“Further details on other elements of the protocol and the impact of their implementation will be provided following further legal and financial analysis,” the company said. “Operations on site continue as normal and have not been impacted.”

Mali lies in an arc of instability stretching across the continent. Military governments rule from Guinea on the Atlantic to Sudan on the Red Sea. Resolute forecasts that Syama, in the country’s southwest near the border with Cote d’Ivoire, should produce 205,000 oz. to 215,000 oz. gold this year. That’s out of total company guidance for 345,000 oz. to 365,000 oz. gold.

How

A haul truck at Resolute Mining’s open pit Syama mine. RESOLUTE MINING

Drilling at Dolly Varden Silver’s Homestake Silver deposit in B.C. during July. HENRY LAZENBY

donedeals

Anglo American sells Australian coal JV stake

M&A | One-third stake fetches $1.5B

BY CECILIA JAMASMIE

Anglo American (LSE: AAL) has agreed to sell its minority stake in an Australian coal mining joint venture for A$1.6 billion ($1.5 billion), marking a significant step in its strategy to focus on copper, iron ore and the Woodsmith fertilizer project in Britain.

The company’s one-third stake in Jellinbah Group is being sold to Zashvin, Anglo said in early November. The Australian power generation operator already owns a third of the venture, alongside Japan’s Marubeni. The transaction is expected to close in the second quarter of 2025. Jellinbah holds a 70% stake in two metallurgical coal mines in Queensland — Jellinbah East and Lake Vermont.

Six interested buyers are in discussion with Anglo for its remaining Australian coal operations, the company said. They’re expected to fetch between US$4 billion and US$5 billion. Potential buyers could include majors such as Peabody Energy (NYSE: BTU), Yancoal Australia (ASX: YAL) and Glencore (LSE: GLEN), according to market speculation.

Anglo announced a restructuring plan in May as part of its successful deflection of a US$49-billion takeover approach from BHP (ASX: BHP), the world’s biggest miner. The plan focused on divesting from diamonds by spinning off or selling its 85% stake in De Beers, the world’s largest diamond producer by value. It also included restructuring its platinum operations and selling its coal assets. Anglo CEO Duncan Wanblad is facing pressure to prove to shareholders that his strategy will generate value for them.

“Our process to sell the rest of our steelmaking coal business — being the portfolio of steelmaking coal mines that we operate in Australia — is now at an advanced stage,” Wanblad said in a statement. “We are on track to agree terms in the coming months.”

“Our process to sell the rest of our steelmaking coal business is now at an advanced stage.”

DUNCAN WANBLAD, CEO, ANGLO AMERICAN

Fire delay

The Jellinbah sale may reassure investors of Anglo’s commitment to its restructuring plan. The sale of its Grosvenor metallurgical coal mine, the company’s larger coal asset, has faced delays due to a fire affecting the operation.

Grosvenor reached first output in 2016 but was closed in mid-2020 after an explosion that seriously injured five workers. It only returned to production in February 2022.

Anglo’s plan to exit the diamond business has also been challenged as the sector experiences a downturn. Sources close to the process have said that Anglo American would prefer to wait for a recovery in the diamond market before letting go of De Beers. The internal view at the company is that De

Beers should command a price that reflects its status as a trophy asset.

The company also is progressing in offloading its platinum business. In September, it sold about 5% of Anglo American Platinum, reducing its stake to 73.7%.

The company’s exposure to world-class copper assets in Latin America has drawn the attention of larger competitors. But Anglo American’s share price has slid to a third lower than BHP’s final allshare offer in May, which valued the company at £31.11 ($56) per share.

Shares in Anglo American in mid-November traded at £24.89 apiece, valuing the company at £30.7 billion.

Anglo has set the ambitious goal of increasing annual copper production to more than 1 million tonnes by the early 2030s, with the rise coming from its Chilean and Peruvian mines. The company’s copper output slid 13% in this year’s third quarter compared to the same period in 2023. It produced 575,000 tonnes over the first nine months, reflecting a 4% yearover-year decline.

Despite this drop, the company maintained its 2024 copper production guidance, aiming for a fullyear output between 730,000 and 790,000 tonnes. TNM

Orla buys Ontario mine for US$850M

M&A | Non-diluting deal with Newmont

BY CECILIA JAMASMIE

Orla Mining (TSX: OLA) is buying Newmont’s (TSX: NGT; NYSE: NEM) Musselwhite gold mine in Ontario for US$850 million, enabling it to more than double production of the precious metal as prices hover near record highs.

Orla said Nov. 18 it will pay Newmont US$810 million in cash, with additional instalments contingent on gold prices.

Musselwhite, an underground gold mine in northwestern Ontario, has been operational for over 25 years. It had 1.5 million oz. of proven and probable gold reserves at the end of 2023.

For Orla, which operates the Camino Rojo mine in Mexico, acquiring Musselwhite is a transformative step. The deal will elevate Orla from a single-asset producer to a multi-asset miner, increasing gold output by 140% to 300,000 oz. per year.

“We intend to not only continue to operate Musselwhite, but to seek optimization opportunities and to invest in its future, grow its

Pan African expands into Australia

GOLD | Sudan project halted

reserves and resources, and extend its mine life,” Orla’s president and CEO Jason Simpson said in a statement. “The mine has a proven history of successful production, cash generation, and reserve replacement, having consistently added to mine life.”

Shares in Orla Mining gained nearly 9% on the news to $6.04 apiece before rising to $6.45 near press time for a market capitalization of $2 billion. They’ve traded in a 52-week range of $3.53 to $7.16.

Free cash flow

This acquisition also boosts Orla’s exposure to record gold prices, which have surged this year as global risk rises and interest rates have started to decline. Musselwhite is expected to generate more than US$150 million in average annual free cash flow over the next six years, the company said.

Orla chose not to issue equity to fund the purchase. Instead, it employed a combination of financing: selling 16% of its pro-

BY CECILIA JAMASMIE

South Africa’s Pan African Resources (LSE: PAF; JSE: PAN) is expanding into Australia with the acquisition of gold junior Tennant Consolidated Mining Group (TCMG) for US$54.2 million.

The move secures ownership of TCMG’s near-production Nobles gold project in Australia’s Northern Territory. Pan African previously held an 8% stake in Tennant.

The asset, scoped to produce 50,000 oz. of the precious metal a year, is scheduled to begin commissioning in June.

The acquisition comes as Pan

African suspends exploration activities in war-torn Sudan and is part of a strategy to secure low-cost production assets in Tier 1 mining

jurisdictions. Payback on the initial A$35.7-million (US$23.3 million) investment is expected within three years, assuming an average gold

price of about US$2,600 per ounce.

“TCMG represents an opportunity to further expand and diversify our near-term low-cost production base,” Pan African CEO Cobus Loots said in a release.

The company had evaluated TCMG’s portfolio for nearly a year before concluding that a friendly takeover aligned with Pan African’s goal of safe, efficient gold mining ventures, Loots said.

Mine construction has already started with the processing plant half done, Pan African said. First gold is scheduled for July.

Force Majeure

Pan African said on Nov. 5 it had declared force majeure on its

exploration efforts in Sudan’s Red Sea state as the civil war disrupted operations.

The conflict continues to create instability and security risks for both personnel and assets, it said.

“Given the ongoing political unrest in Sudan, the decision has been taken to suspend exploration activities in Sudan,” Pan African stated. Issuing a formal notice of force majeure should safeguard its concession rights amid the crisis, it added.

As the country’s official military continues to fight the renegade paramilitary group Rapid Support Forces, Pan African’s pivot to Australia may signal a shift toward lower-risk regions. TNM

Newmont’s Musselwhite mine in northern Ontario. NATURAL RESOURCES CANADA

The Jellinbah East mine in Queensland, Australia. JELLINBAH GROUP

Pan African's Evander gold miner in South Africa. PAN AFRICAN RESOURCES

Orla Mining P18 >

Military Metals buys Cold War-era antimony projects

EUROPE | Projects to boost West’s supply

BY COLIN MCCLELLAND

Military Metals (CSE: MILI; US-OTC: MILIF) is buying two antimony projects in Slovakia dating from the Soviet era to boost Western supplies for defence applications such as night vision and infrared sensors.

The all-share deal, which also includes a tin project and a small processing plant, values the assets at about $6 million, Vancouverbased Military Metals said on Oct. 30. The antimony projects include Trojarova, where past owners explored in the 1980s and ’90s. A historical report showed it had 1.3 million tonnes grading 4.146% antimony and 0.591 gram gold per tonne in a 2% antimony cut-off scenario, the company said.

Military Metals says Trojarova could be one of Europe’s most significant primary antimony deposits. It plans new drilling to complete a resource at NI 43-101 standards. Geopolitical tensions, export limits and trade sanctions against main producers Russia and China have roughly tripled antimony’s spot price in recent years to around US$29,000 per tonne.

“With a well-established, rich mineral base, this brownfield site enables us to work towards a reliable domestic antimony supply when Europe faces mounting supply chain pressures,” CEO Scott Eldridge said in a release. “This acquisition reflects our commitment to reducing reliance on Chinese imports, ensuring stability for the European market and empowering the West to drive a more resilient, self-sufficient future for critical materials.”

Shares in Military Metals were at 85¢ apiece in mid-November, valuing the company at $27.8 million. The stock has rocketed 1,100% this year from 7¢. It listed in June 2022 at $2.25.

Eastern sources

Almost all global reserves of antimony are concentrated in China, Russia and Tajikistan. China, which mines and processes nearly half of global output, began restricting exports Sept. 15. The United States, Canada, the European Union and Britain classify it as a critical mineral. Besides defence applications, the metal is also used in batteries.

The U.S. doesn’t produce antimony at the moment. But the federal government gave a key environmental approval in September to Perpetua Resources’ (TSX: PPTA; NASDAQ: PPTA)

Suitors tail American Eagle Gold

BC | South32, Teck each hold 19.9% stake

Stibnite gold project in Idaho, which holds 148 million lb. of antimony, according to a 2020 feasibility report.

In April, the Export-Import Bank of the U.S. said it’s considering lending Perpetua US$1.8 billion. It would be one of Washington’s largest ever investments in a domestic mine.

Military Metals says the EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act has opened financing sources from local European institutions. The company didn’t identify specific financing it might pursue.

Historical drilling Geologists discovered Trojarova in the late 1970s. It was drilled for 63 core holes totalling 14,330 metres plus 1.7 km of underground workings from 1983 to 1995. These included a 300-metre adit connected to a 700-metre drive in the mineralized zone’s footwall with seven crosscuts, the company said.

The Slovak Geological Institute published a multi-volume study on Trojarova in 1992. While the Soviet standards used in the report aren’t the same as Western measures, the project’s historical resource is somewhat similar to inferred tonnes, Military Metals said.

The deal’s second antimony property, Tiennesgrund, features over two dozen small underground workings. Officials reported a long artisanal-scale mining history along its 10-km length, the company said.

Tiennesgrund holds a large fault and shear-hosted antimony-gold vein system. The project in eastern Slovakia has multiple adits, the company said.

Tin project

The nearby Medvedi-Potok tin property also features historical drilling, underground development and a historical tin resource. It hosts a tin vein system in a greisened intrusive.

The processing plant is part of the company’s efficiency and innovation strategy and is a key differentiator in the market, it said.

“We’re taking a transformative step to strengthen Europe’s access to essential raw materials,” the company said.

“With global demand for antimony soaring and critical mineral supply chains becoming increasingly strained geopolitically, Military is seeking to take advantage of a strategic opportunity to acquire an asset that can fill this global demand.” TNM

BY ALISHA HIYATE

South32 (ASX: S32) is shelling out $29.2 million for a 19.9% interest in American Eagle Gold (TSXV: AE), which is in the third year of drilling at its NAK copper-gold discovery in central British Columbia.

South32 is the second major investor to acquire just under a 20% stake in the junior. Teck Resources (TSX: TECK.A/TECK.B; NYSE: TECK) already owns 19.9% of American Eagle, and has the right to maintain that stake. If it does participate, the final amount raised by American Eagle will be higher.

To gain its initial stake in American Eagle, South32 agreed to pay a 15% premium to the junior’s five-day volume-weighted average trading price on the Venture exchange, the junior said in a Nov. 11 release. The financing will see American Eagle issue 33.3 million shares to South32 at 87.5¢ each. No warrants will be issued in the non-brokered private placement.

The investment will bring American Eagle’s treasury to $37 million, enough to fund expanded drill programs in 2025 and 2026. The company said it will share plans for its 2025 drill program after receiving all assays from this year’s campaign.

“We are very pleased to welcome South32 as a strategic investor in American Eagle. This investment marks our second major mining enterprise that has endorsed our project and our work at the NAK copper-gold porphyry project,”

American Eagle CEO Anthony Moreau said in the release. “This investment underscores NAK’s potential, significantly strengthens our balance sheet, and enhances NAK’s profile.”

The financing gives South32 the right to nominate one director to American Eagle’s board. The companies were due to enter an investor rights agreement when the financing was expected to close around Nov. 26.

Shares in the $140.8-million market cap junior traded for $1.05 apiece before press time in Toronto.

The stock has traded in a 52-week range of 24¢-$1.05. American Eagle is finishing up this year’s 15,000-metre drill program at the NAK porphyry project in B.C.’s northern Babine district. In August, the company reported three holes that returned over 100 meres of 1 gram gold equivalent or better from surface that expanded its at-surface, high-grade “Gold zone.”

The deposit has been traced for 1.2 km north to south, 350 metres east-west, and to 850 metres depth. TNM

Canada OKs Pan American’s Peru

mine sale to Zijin

REGULATION | Chinese miner to pay up to US$295M

BY CECILIA JAMASMIE

Canada has approved Pan American Silver’s (TSX: PAAS; NYSE: PAAS) sale of its La Arena open-pit mine and project in Peru to Jinteng Mining, a subsidiary of China’s Zijin Mining Group.

The approval, granted under the Investment Canada Act, includes a joint commitment by Pan American and Zijin to establish an offtake agreement for the La Arena II project. This deal will allow the Vancouver-based company to secure 60% of the future copper concentrate produced from La Arena II on commercial terms, with the intent to supply the North American markets once commercial production begins.

Upon closing, Zijin will pay US$245 million in cash and grant Pan American a 1.5% life-of-mine gold net smelter return royalty from the La Arena II project. Once commercial production begins, Zijin will make a further contingent cash payment of US$50 million.

The La Arena property is located in Peru’s La Libertad province on

the Atlantic coast about 500 km north of Lima. It comprises the La Arena gold mine and the La Arena II project, which is in advanced exploration. The open-pit mine has been in operation since 2011. Since acquiring the mine from Tahoe Resources in 2019, Pan American said it has added to resources and reserves through exploration activities and extended the mine life from 2021 to 2026,

with the potential for further extension.

Pan American Silver has silver and gold mines across the Americas, with active operations in Canada, Mexico, Peru, Brazil, Bolivia, Chile and Argentina. The company also owns the Escobal mine in Guatemala, which is closed pending the completion of an ongoing consultation for a possible restart of operations. TNM

Pan American Silver’s La Arena gold mine. IAN BEZEK

American Eagle Gold project geologist Neil Prowse. HENRY LAZENBY

Night vision devices used by soldiers contain antimony.

Troilus offered US$1.3B in loans

QUEBEC

| Some funding tied to copper offtake

Aldebaran teams up with Nuton

BY

ABY MINING.COM STAFF

Troilus Gold (TSX: TLG) has inked preliminary deals for US$1.3 billion in loan guarantees from Germany, Scandinavia and Canada to help restart a former copper and gold mine in Quebec.

Export credit agencies EKN for Sweden, Finerva for Finland, Euler Hermes Aktiengesellschaft for Germany and Export Development Canada issued letters of intent in November. The amounts were US$200 million, US$300 million, US$500 million and US$300 million, respectively.

“The partnerships with the Finnish, Swedish and German export credit agencies underscore the strength of the project’s fundamentals and the confidence these global institutions have in Troilus,” CEO Justin Reid said in a Nov. 19 release. Canada’s support highlights “our nation’s leadership in advancing domestic projects with global significance,” Reid said the same week.

The company’s focus is to advance its main gold-copper asset, the former Troilus mine in the Val-d’Or district of Quebec. It mined 2 mil-

lion oz. of gold and almost 70,000 tonnes of copper between 1996 and 2010 and could once again become one of Canada’s largest producers.

Capex covered

Initial development costs for the project to restart the former Troilus mine are estimated at just over US$1 billion, according to a feasibility study released in May. It would be a 22-year open-pit operation with a processing capacity of 50,000 tonnes per day.

The mine is expected to produce an average of 303,000 gold-equivalent ounces (GEOs) per year, or 135.4 million lb. of copper-equivalent annually. Peak production would reach 536,400 GEOs or 237.6 million lb. of copper-equivalent per year.

The German loan is contingent upon Troilus signing an offtake agreement with Hamburg copper smelter Aurubis. The offtake term would be up to 15 years and is subject to standard due diligence including economic, technical, environmental and social assessments.

Finnvera’s support is contingent on strategic partnerships with an unnamed Finnish equipment pro-

vider and Sweden’s Boliden, one of Europe’s largest smelting companies. The equipment collaboration is valued at $50 million to $100 million while an anticipated 10-year copper-gold concentrate offtake agreement with Boliden is estimated at $200 million annually.

Sweden’s EKN is providing cover of about US$200 million or up to a quarter of the offtake agreement with Boliden under the agency’s Swedish Raw Material Guarantee.

Infrastructure

The property has well established infrastructure valued at about US$500 million, Troilus said. This includes an extensive network of all-weather access roads, a 50MW substation and over 60 km of power lines maintained by Hydro-Quebec, a permitted tailings facility, and operating water treatment plants.

The project has an after-tax net present value (at a 5% discount) of $884.5 million and an internal rate of return of 14% under the base case scenario, according to the study.

Shares of Troilus Gold traded at 33¢ apiece in Toronto near press time for a market capitalization of $117.9 million. TNM

Amex PEA outlines 10-year mine

QUEBEC | Analysts look for bigger gold resource

BY CANADIAN MINING JOURNAL STAFF

Amex Exploration (TSXV: AMX: US-OTC: AMXEF) stock jumped as much as 21% on Nov. 13 after posting what it called an “exceptional” preliminary economic assessment (PEA) for its Perron gold project in Quebec.

The study outlines a 10-year open-pit and underground mine that will produce 1 million oz. gold in total and 124,000 oz. gold annually over its first five years. The initial capital cost is estimated at $229 million, plus sustaining costs of $230 million.

The PEA gives the project a pretax internal rate of return of 59.5% and a net present value of $948 million (5% discount) with gold at US$2,000 per ounce. The all-in sus-

taining cost for Perron, near the town of Normetal, Que., is forecast at US$807 per ounce. The payback period is estimated at 1.5 years, based on pre-tax numbers.

“This PEA marks an important milestone for Amex and reaf-

firms our view that our fully owned Perron project is a high-quality asset and has the potential of being a highly profitable standalone mining operation with mini-

ldebaran Resources (TSXV: ALDE, US-OTC: ADBRF) shares climbed to a new high of $1.98 following news that it’s teaming up with Nuton, Rio Tinto’s (NYSE: RIO) sulphide leaching technology venture, to advance its Altar copper-gold project in Argentina through to the prefeasibility stage.

Under an agreement signed Nov. 7, Nuton can acquire a 20% indirect interest in Altar by making staged payments totaling US$250 million over two years. For this year, Aldebaran will receive an upfront payment of US$10 million, plus US$20 million after it publishes a new resource estimate that was expected by the end of November.

Nuton would pay another US$30 million upon the delivery of a preliminary economic assessment (PEA) for Altar, slated for mid-2025. Adebaran would receive the remaining US$190 million in 2026 after it publishes a prefeasibility study (PFS).

The Rio venture has the right to terminate the option agreement at any payment stage. If it does, Aldebaran will retain its 80% interest in the project as well as any cash payments made to that point.

“This deal has many benefits to Aldebaran shareholders in that it provides for non-dilutive capital injections to fund future work programs on the Altar project through to completion of a (prefeasibility) if Nuton proceeds through each milestone,” John Black, Aldebaran’s CEO, said in a release.

At its high reached on the announcement, Aldebaran’s market capitalization rose above $300 million for the first time since it spun out from Regulus Resources in 2018. At press time it traded even higher at $2.01 apiece, giving it a market value of $341.4 million.

Nuton testing

The companies will also work together to evaluate Nuton’s sulphide leaching technology in the upcoming PEA and prefeasibility studies. The technology, Aldebaran says, has the potential to materially improve the economics of the project.

“Nuton’s proprietary sulphide leaching technologies could add significant value to the Altar project by reducing the costs and capital required for development,” Black said. “Our current plan for the PEA and PFS is to show both Nuton and non-Nuton cases.”

The collaboration will comprise two stages. The first is ongoing, as samples from the Altar project totalling 2,100 kg have already

“This deal has many benefits to Aldebaran shareholders in that it provides for non-dilutive capital injections to fund future work programs on the Altar project through to completion of a (prefeasibility).”

JOHN BLACK, ALDEBARAN CEO

been shipped to Nuton earlier this year for testing. Results are expected in the second quarter and will be included in the PEA.

Second-stage work involves drilling several new “twin-holes” of existing drill holes to provide Nuton with material for testing and the simulation of an operational heap-leach pad. Data of the simulation will then be used for the prefeasibility.

The cost of the drill program will be paid from Nuton’s US$10million signing payment, but if the drill program exceeds US$5 million, Nuton will advance those costs from the PEA payment. Nuton will cover all costs associated with testing its technology on Altar drill core.

Porphyry resource

The Altar project comprises a cluster of porphyry deposits in San Juan province. A pit-constrained resource estimate was posted in 2021 showing 11.4 billion lb. of copper and 3.4 million oz. of gold in the measured and indicated categories, plus 1.7 billion lb. copper and 400,000 oz. gold inferred.

Aldebaran holds the project’s interest through its 60% stake in Peregrine Metals, a private Canadian company that owns the project, but is in the process of finalizing an earn-in with Sibanye-Stillwater (JSE: SSW) for an additional 20%.

Should Nuton elect to follow through on its option agreement and complete the PFS, Aldebaran would own 60% of Altar and act as operator, while Sibanye-Stillwater and Nuton would each hold 20%.

In addition to Sibanye, Aldebaran’s other notable shareholder is Australia’s South32 (ASX: S32), which raised its holding to 14.8% last year following a private placement. TNM

Troilus Gold’s namesake copper and gold mine in the Val-d’Or region of Quebec. TROILUS GOLD

Aldebaran Resources’ Altar project in Argentina. ALDEBARAN RESOURCES

ARGENTINA |

MINING.COM STAFF

Amex CEO Victor Cantore outside the core shack at Perron project. AMEX EXPLORATION

projectupdates

Uranium Energy project nears $1B value

URANIUM | Roughrider capex low

BY STAFF WRITER

Uranium Energy’s (NYSEAM: UEC) Roughrider project in northern Saskatchewan could become a high-margin producer with one of the lowest capital spending profiles in Canada, according to an initial economic study.

The project, acquired from Rio Tinto (NYSE: RIO; LSE: RIO; ASX: RIO) for US$150 million two years ago, has an after-tax net present value of US$946 million at an 8% discount rate, an internal rate of return of 40% and a payback period of 1.4 years, Uranium Energy said on Nov. 8. Initial capex is estimated at US$545 million, including a proposed 400-tonne-per-day mill. This would give Roughrider one of the lowest capex profiles in the country, according to the study. All-in sustaining costs are pegged at US$20.48 per lb. uranium oxide (U3O8).

“This initial economic assessment marks a pivotal milestone for Roughrider, validating it as a top-tier, high-margin operation with a clear path to development into a world-class mine and mill,” Uranium Energy CEO Amir Adnani said in a release. “We see significant potential for further value creation as we advance the project through the prefeasibility stage, supported by recent exploration drill results and the discovery of the Roughrider North deposit.”

The study is based on a longterm uranium price of US$85 per lb., and an estimated production of 61.2 million lb. U3O8 over a nine-year mine life, averaging 6.8

million lb. U3O8 per year. The lifeof-mine average mill feed grade is 2.36% U3O8, with a forecast recovery rate of 97.5%.

Adnani calls Roughrider “an elite underground development project” that benefits from being near others in the McClean Lake/ Rabbit Lake area of the eastern Athabasca Basin, a global hotspot for uranium mining. The region includes operations by Cameco (TSX: CCO; NYSE: CCJ) and French state-owned Orano besides advanced development projects by Denison Mines (TSX: DML; NYSE: DNN) and NexGen Energy (TSX: NXE; NYSE: NXE; ASX: NXG).

Roughrider project

Uranium Energy envisions the 6-sq.-km Roughrider as a conventional uranium mine. Roughrider was discovered by Hathor Exploration in 2008. The junior was later was acquired by Rio Tinto for US$550 million. Rio made substantial progress on Roughrider’s pre-development and environmental baseline work.

The US$150-million sale price to Uranium Energy was less than a third of what Rio paid and onesixth of the project’s after-tax NPV calculated in the new study. Since acquiring the project, Uranium Energy has focused on updating its resource estimate. It totals 699,000 indicated tonnes grading 1.81% U3O8 for 27.9 million lb. U3O8, according to the new study. It has 620,000 inferred tonnes grading 2.45% U3O8 for 33.4 million lb. U3O8

Uranium Energy shares traded at US$8.44 at press time, giving it a market capitalization to US$3 .4billion. TNM

Magna discovers new high-grade zone at Shakespeare

COPPER | Ontario project is JV with Glencore

BY COLIN MCCLELLAND

Magna Mining (TSXV: NICU; US-OTC: MGMNF) says drilling found new copper mineralization on its Shakespeare project in a joint venture with Glencore (LSE: GLEN) less than 2 km from a feasibility-stage former mine.

The initial drillhole MSW-2401 on the Southwest copper zone cut 32.4 metres grading 1.4% copper, including 13.9 metres at 2.3% copper beginning at 64.6 metres downhole, Magna said on Nov. 4.

Crews identified the Southwest target early this year on the project in Sudbury, Ont., Dave King, Magna senior vice-president of geoscience, said. Southwest had no records of previous drilling. Magna plans more exploration to test the area on strike and at depth, King said.

“The zone is open for expansion in all directions,” he said. “We are in the early days of defining the significance of mineralization here, however, we are optimistic of the potential.”

Sudbury, known for its nickel production that dominated the region for more than a century, is attracting exploration linked to historical operations as demand for battery and energy transition metals rises. Giant Vale (NYSE: VALE) is expanding its Sudbury Copper Cliff complex to increase production of nickel, copper and cobalt. SPC Nickel (TSXV: SPC) is developing its West Graham nickel-copper project in the area.

Crean Hill

Magna has permits for the 4,500-tonne-per-day open-pit former Shakespeare mine, mill and tailings facility. It’s also redeveloping the nearby former Crean Hill mine as a nickel-copper-platinum group producer. The project has a 129% internal rate of return, according to a preliminary economic assessment issued in September.

The Shakespeare JV sees Magna

hold 86% while Glencore has 14%. Southwest is about 1 km west of the Stumpy Bay target on the project. It’s in a regional-scale structural zone associated with the Murray fault system that strikes across the Shakespeare property from west-southwest to east-northeast. Sulphide mineralization at both targets is dominated by zones of disseminated to net-textured pyrite, pyrrhotite and chalcopyrite in highly silicified shears, Magna said.

Shakespeare mine

The former Shakespeare mine plan and schedule are based on probable mineral reserves totalling 11.9 million tonnes of ore grading 0.33% nickel, 0.35% copper, 0.02% cobalt, 0.32 gram per tonne platinum, 0.36 gram palladium and 0.18 gram gold. The ore would be processed over a 7.1-year mine life after a year of pre-stripping.

Magna collared Southwest’s second drillhole, MSW-24-03, about 75 metres along strike northeast and assays are pending. A third hole on this shear zone beneath MSW-24-03 is in progress. Drillhole MSW-2402 targeted a separate, weak electro-magnetic conductor within a

“We are in the early days of defining the significance of mineralization here, however, we are optimistic of the potential.”

DAVE KING, MAGNA SVP GEOSCIENCE

gabbro not associated with the mineralized structure. Assay are pending for this hole about 400 metres southeast of hole MSW-24-01. Magna also announced Greg Huffman, former global head of mining sales at Canaccord Genuity, and now president and CEO of Nuclear Fuels (CSE: NF; US-OTC: NFUNF) is to join Magna’s advisory board. . Magna shares traded at $1.42 at press time in a 52-week window of 37¢ to$1.57. The company has a market cap of $250 million. TNM

Probe Gold drills new high-grade zone at Novador

QUEBEC | Targets prefeasibility study in early 2026

BY BLAIR MCBRIDE

Drilling by Probe Gold (TSX: PRB; US-OTC: PROBF) has uncovered a new, relatively shallow zone at its Novador property near Val-d’Or, Que.

Drilling this past summer and fall intercepted the Courvan SE001 zone, a sub-zone in the eastern area of the Courvan Southeast deposit. Hole COD-24-29 cut 12.8 metres grading 4.2 grams gold per tonne from 8 metres depth, including an uncut interval of the same width grading 14.3 grams gold, the company said on Nov. 5. Another interval in that hole cut 0.8 metre at 224 grams gold.

Dozens of holes drilled at Courvan since the spring have confirmed continuity of gold zones,

Probe reported. The Courvan deposits remain open laterally and have been drilled to relatively shallow depths.

Just east of the Southeast deposit, hole COD-24-13 intersected 3.2 metres grading 14.4 grams gold from 155 metres depth, including 1 metre at 56.5 metres. A 3.5metre interval of an uncut portion returned 16.3 grams gold.

“The results from Courvan once again highlight the substantial exploration potential that remains within the Novador project,” David Palmer, Probe CEO and president, said in a release. “The recent discovery of thick, high-grade gold mineralization just 150 metres from our development areas suggests strong potential for further exploration breakthroughs as we

advance our work on new targets around Novador.”

Probe’s current 50,000-metre drill program at Novador aims to convert resources in preparation for a Novador prefeasibility study in early 2026. The project holds the Monique, Pascalis, Courvan and Beaufor deposits. Courvan has the third-largest resource of the four.

A preliminary economic assessment for Novador gives it an aftertax net present value (at a 5% discount) of $910 million and an internal rate of return of 24.4%, based on a gold price of US$1,750 per ounce. The mine is expected to produce 255,000 oz. gold over a 12.6-year mine life.

Condemnation drilling impresses

Results from condemnation drilling at the Bussière deposit north of Courvan returned 45 metres grading 1.5 grams gold from 269.5 metres depth in hole CO-22-310ext. That hole also returned 2 metres at 7.8 grams gold and 1 metre grading 30.5 grams gold. This type of drilling is done to ensure infrastructure isn’t developed over significant ore zones.

More condemnation drilling, east of Bussière, cut 3 metres at 17.8 grams gold from 140 metres depth in hole COD-24-06, and an uncut interval of 3 metres grading 31.2 grams gold. It also included 1 metre at 90.4 grams gold.

Probe’s wider Val-d’Or East properties, which include the Novador, Croinor, McKenzie Break, Lapaska and Sleepy deposits, hold

6.7 million measured and indicated oz. and 3.2 million inferred oz., according to a resource update in September. That represents a 77% and 131% increase, respectively, over the resource that was released last year.

Novador hosts the largest resource of the properties. It holds 6.4 million measured and indicated oz. in open pit and underground resources (122 million tonnes grading 1.5 grams gold) and 1.5 million inferred oz. (22.7 million tonnes at 2.03 grams gold), a 60% increase over the previous estimate.

Probe shares traded to $1.47 at press time, giving the company a market capitalization of $266 million. Its shares traded in a year-long range of $1.08 to $1.95. TNM

Magna Mining’s Crean Hill project in Ontario. MAGNA MINING

eye on australia

MinRes founder Ellison forced out amid governance scandal

C-SUITE | ‘Deeply sorry’ for impact on company and its image, exec says

BY KRISTIE BATTEN

Following two weeks of scandal, Australia’s Mineral Resources (ASX: MIN) announced on Nov. 4 that its founder and managing director, Chris Ellison, will be fined and will leave the company within 12 to 18 months.

Shares in the embattled miner fell by up to 10% on the ASX on Nov. 4, as the release of an internal investigation uncovered serious governance issues within the company.

Ellison apologized to shareholders on Nov. 20, admitting to an “error of judgment” in relation to tax evasion and said all personal expenses had always been reimbursed promptly.

“I deeply regret the impact this has had on the business and our people,” Ellison said. “I can’t stress enough how much I hate what I’ve done, and there’s a dark cloud in my life that I’ll live with forever.”

MinRes said the executive had been under board investigation since 2022.

The CEO faced allegations that he and other senior executives had leased properties to MinRes at up to 70% above market rates since 2006.

The findings

The investigation confirmed that from 2003 to 2014, Ellison held an interest in Far East Equipment Holdings Ltd. (FEEHL), incorporated in the British Virgin Islands. In 2003 and 2004, FEEHL sold mining equipment to Crushing Services

International (CSI), with payments outstanding at the time of CSI’s acquisition by MinRes in 2006.

MinRes listed on the ASX in 2006, but the liability to FEEHL was not disclosed in its prospectus or any subsequent report. The company later made payments totalling about A$3.8 million (US$2.6 million) to FEEHL in 2006 and 2008 to settle the liability.

In 2021, Ellison voluntarily disclosed income earned from FEEHL to the Australian Taxation Office (ATO) and paid A$3.9 million in unpaid taxes in May 2023, though he did not inform MinRes of this disclosure until November 2023. MinRes found that certain emails relating to FEEHL were deleted in 2019 to prevent this information from becoming public.

The board also acknowledged that related-party financial benefits had been provided to Ellison’s associates, including rent paid to entities in which he held an interest, rent relief given to entities affiliated with his daughter, and indirect financial arrangements involving her. While Ellison had disclosed these instances, the board determined he failed to grasp the importance of transparency and timely disclosure of potential conflicts of interest.

‘Deeply sorry’

Ellison, a New Zealander who left school at 15 and went on to become a self-made billionaire, founded MinRes in 1992. MinRes chairman James McClements described Ellison’s actions as serious, noting

“I hate what I’ve done.”

that they had severely impacted his reputation and the company’s. The scandal has wiped about 20% from MinRes’ share price since Oct. 21. Ellison agreed to repay MinRes A$3.8 million, equivalent to the payments made to FEEHL in 2006 and 2008 without appropriate related-party disclosure. He will also donate A$5 million to charity over five years, forfeit up to A$6.5 million in unvested incentives, and withdraw a proposal for an additional A$3.1 million in incentives.

Ellison, who agreed to step down within 12 to 18 months to facilitate a smooth leadership transition, said he was “deeply sorry” for what has occurred and the impact on MinRes’ reputation. “I apologize to the board and our people, who expect

and deserve better from me,” he said.McClements, who has been the miner’s chairman since May 2015 and is also managing partner at Resource Capital Funds, announced he would also leave once a suitable successor for Ellison is found.

The AFR also alleged that McClements’ predecessor, Peter Wade, had an interest in FEEHL and was involved in the tax evasion scheme. McClements noted, “The transition process has been underway for some time, and recent events have accelerated it. It’s appropriate that my successor is involved in appointing the next CEO, so we will fast-track recruitment of the next MinRes chair.”

An independent Ethics & Governance Committee, including Min-

Res directors Denise McComish, Susie Corlett, and Jacqui McGill, will be formed to oversee compliance.

‘Critical Time’

The controversy comes as MinRes contends with weak lithium prices and ramps-up in operations at its largest project, Onslow Iron. As of June 2024, MinRes employed 8,500 people, up from 5,600 last year, though the company has cut 570 jobs since July.

Concerns over MinRes’ gross debt of A$5.3 billion, were alleviated somewhat by the company’s recent sale of a 49% stake in the Onslow Iron haul road to Morgan Stanley Infrastructure Partners for A$1.1 billion and the sale of its Perth Basin gas interests to Gina Rinehart’s Hancock Prospecting for an additional A$1.1 billion.

Kaan Peker, an RBC Capital Markets analyst, said that the board’s recent moves have eased short-term uncertainty regarding leadership. Given Ellison’s history in the company, he may stay involved even after he steps down as managing director, Peker said.

But Peker added that Ellison, who holds over 11% of MinRes, remains well-regarded in the market, noting that as the company matures, a transition to a less active role for Ellison aligns with its strategic goals. MinRes shares have declined from nearly A$80 in May to A$33.68 before press time, though RBC has maintained an outperform rating with a price target of A$64. TNM

‘We’ve moved on,’ BHP says of failed Anglo bid M&A | But

BY KIRSTIE BATTEN

BHP’s (ASX: BHP) leadership gave its clearest indication yet that it won’t make another bid for smaller rival Anglo American (LSE: AAL), but later walked back some comments about “moving on” from the deal.

Australia chairman Ken MacKenzie made the initial comments at BHP’s annual general meeting in Brisbane on Oct. 30, adding the company’s approach to Anglo was deliberate rather than opportunistic.

“We plan these things and keep an eye on market activity and it looked like where their share price came within the window of opportunity that made sense for how we were valuing the company,” he said in response to a shareholder question. “We thought there was an opportunity to create something unique and special, a sort of ‘one plus one equals three’ opportunity.”

The company made an initial £31.1 billion (US$38.8 billion) bid for Anglo in April, but gave up the following month, after increasing the offer twice and being rejected

miner still leaves open chance for another offer

each time. On May 29, BHP walked away, citing capital discipline and “South African regulatory risk and cost.”

Under U.K. takeover laws, BHP must wait at least six months before it can consider another tilt for Anglo, a period which was due to expire in late November.

“Unfortunately, Anglo American shareholders had a different view, and they thought there was more value in the plan that their management wanted to execute, and so they moved on. And quite frankly, so have we,” MacKenzie said.

“It was never a transaction that we had to do. It was a nice to have, not a must do.”

However, BHP later clarified that MacKenzie’s comments weren’t intended as an official statement under U.K. takeover rules, and said the panel has agreed not to treat them as an expression of disinterest in a future offer, seemingly keeping the door open.

Lundin joint venture

In late July, BHP and Lundin Mining (TSX: LUN) announced a joint $4.1-billion bid for Toronto-listed

copper explorer Filo Corp. (TSX: FIL), owner of the Filo del Sol copper project on the border of Chile and Argentina.

BHP will also buy 50% of Lundin’s Josemaria project for US$690 million.

CEO Mike Henry said once the transactions close in next year’s first quarter, the company would “have the opportunity to advance what we consider to be one of the most significant copper discoveries in decades.”

Henry stressed that mergers and acquisitions were only one growth option for the company.

“It’s really, really, really important that we all understand that transactions are about one avenue for growth for the company — they’re actually not the fundamental avenue,” he said.

“Before that, we have growing value through productivity – still the biggest single value growth lever for the company. We’ve increased our activity in greenfields exploration for copper resources globally.

“We have getting more out of the resources that we already have, and BHP has the largest endowment of

copper resources of any company in the world, and we see the fruits of that coming through now.”

BHP is aiming to increase South Australia copper production from 310,000-340,000 tonnes per year to 500,000 tonnes per year in the early 2030s, and 650,000 tonnes annually in the mid-2030s. It’s planning to also add 200,000 tonnes of production annually at Escondida in Chile.

“We have lots of attractive growth ahead of us before we start contemplating acquisitions,” Henry said.

“Now, where we do consider acquisitions, we are very disciplined about it. It has to be for the right assets — large, long-life, low-cost — and there has to be an opportunity for BHP to unlock further value through our ownership, through synergies.”

Facing protests

Hundreds of people rallied outside the meeting in Brisbane on Oct. 30, protesting BHP’s opposition to Australia’s new labour laws, as well as the miner’s coal operations.

BHP has been a vocal opponent of the Same Job, Same Pay industrial relations legislation, which

became law on Nov. 1.

The company has argued the legislation would require it to pay inexperienced workers the same as workers with decades of experience, impacting costs and productivity.

Almost 500 members of the Mining and Energy Union marched to protest BHP’s opposition to the legislation.

The meeting received only two questions on coal, around reducing methane emissions and growth.

Henry reiterated that BHP would not be investing in growth in its Queensland coal business.

MacKenzie said BHP was investing “appropriate capital” in the development of green steel initiatives, given the company is still identifying the right pathway to decarbonization.

“We’re at the front end of the funnel where we’re looking at opportunities, and we’re trying to narrow it down to what we think will be the successful technology going forward,” he said.

“I think the amount of money right now is appropriate, but if commercial opportunities arise going forward, the capital will flow.”

Chris Elllison, founder and managing director of MinRes. MACQUARIE AUSTRALIA/MINERAL RESOURCES

eye on australia

Fortescue founder plugs ‘real zero’ ambitions; calls Trump an ‘economic pragmatist’

ENERGY TRANSITION | Forrest says green iron could become Australia’s largest ever industry

BY KIRSTIE BATTEN

Fortescue Metals Group (ASX: FMG) founder and executive

chair Andrew Forrest says that both the mining industry and the broader world are gradually embracing the concept of “real zero” over the 2050 net zero target adopted by most of the iron ore miner’s peers.

“Real zero means we’ll no longer use diesel,” he said. “Fortescue will be entirely powered by green energy, and it’s an investment that I believe is going to future proof your company, savings billions of dollars along the way.”

Speaking at the company’s annual general meeting in Perth on Nov. 6, Forrest underscored Fortescue’s goal to achieve “real zero” by 2030, well ahead of others’ 2050 net zero targets.

“I know we’ve got our naysayers — we always have — but bring them on,” he said.

Some of the company’s strongest skeptics have been its own suppliers, Forrest said.

“These great big companies across America and Europe and Asia, just arrogantly, when we said, ‘We need green equipment so we

can deliver green for our shareholders and for our communities,’ they decided to shrug their shoulders and say, ‘wait until the next decade at the earliest.’”

Fortescue recently announced a US$2.8-billion green equipment partnership with German supplier Liebherr, which Forrest said has since sparked interest from previously dismissive suppliers.

Trump will ‘follow the money’

The U.S. election results were trickling in during the meeting and

“(Trump’s) an

economic

pragmatist,

so

he’s

going to follow the money, and the money is going into green energy, simply because it’s more competitive.”

ANDREW FORREST, FOUNDER AND EXECUTIVE CHAIR, FORTESCUE

Forrest was asked about the ramifications of a second Donald Trump presidency.

“Remember, (Trump’s) an economic pragmatist, so he’s going to follow the money, and the money is going into green energy, simply because it’s more competitive,” he said.

Forrest also dismissed concerns

Regis sues Australian minister

COURTS | Heritage decision blocked gold mine

BY CECILIA JAMASMIE

Regis Resources (ASX: RRL) has initiated legal proceedings to overturn a federal minister’s decision that halted its US$1-billion McPhillamys gold and silver project in New South Wales, Australia.

In August, Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek issued a “Section 10” order to protect Indigenous heritage sites, which effectively prevented Regis from constructing the mine’s tailings dam near the headwaters of the Belubula River, the proposed site.

The Western Australia-based gold miner argues the ruling contained “several issues and alleged failures,” providing grounds for their legal challenge.

Regis says the decision has made its project unviable and had hinted at potential legal action in recent statements.

“None of the extensive expert evidence produced during the

years-long processes we went through to approve the McPhillamys project and respond to the Section 10 application indicated there was Aboriginal cultural heritage that could not be appropriately managed,” managing director and chief executive manager, Jim Beyer, said in the statement.

The executive emphasized that no impartial data supporting Plibersek’s cultural heritage ruling has been found to date.

“In the weeks following the Minister’s decision, it has become clear that key findings made by the Minister regarding Aboriginal cultural heritage are vigorously disputed,” Beyer added.

Following the decision, Regis wrote down A$192 million (US$128 million at today’s rates), nearly the entire value of the McPhillamys project.

Warnings dismissed

Beyer accused the minister and the department of not adequately considering the company’s warnings

over a potential U.S.-China trade conflict and its impact on the iron ore market.

“The strength and resilience of China’s economy are formidable. Regardless of the outcome, Australia’s position is secure,” he said.

“China remains the United States’ largest trading partner, and both countries benefit significantly from their relationship.”

Forrest emphasized Fortescue’s bipartisan approach, noting recent meetings with both former U.S. secretary of state John Kerry and Trump’s former ambassador to Canada, Kelly Craft.

Green iron the ‘next chapter’

Despite a challenging year for Fortescue, which included cutting 700 jobs and scaling back some green hydrogen projects, Forrest defended the company’s strong track record of shareholder returns.

“Since 2014, we’ve made your company the highest shareholder return company in Australian stock exchange history,” he said of the A$42 billion (US$27.6 billion) in dividends paid over that period.

“We’ve had an excellent run with iron ore. It’s really rolling. Green iron is our next big chapter, going green across the world. Much bigger opportunities again.”

In August, the company began constructing a US$50-million Green Metal project at Christmas Creek in Western Australia. This plant, powered by green hydrogen, will feature an electric smelting furnace producing over 1,500 tonnes of high-purity ‘green’ iron metal annually starting next year.

“Green hydrogen is critical to decarbonizing industry — steel, shipping, aviation — all the hard to abate sectors that can’t be electrified can be released from the grip of the fossil fuel sector by green hydrogen, and that’s why it’s caused so much criticism,” Forrest said.

He touted the “once in a generation” opportunity to build what could be Australia’s largest ever single industry.

“[Australia] ships three quarters of a billion tonnes of iron ore a year, three quarters of a trillion dollars. We’re going to double, triple that revenue.”

Shareholder support

Fortescue faced only two shareholder questions during the AGM and all resolutions passed, despite a minor pushback of just over 11% against performance rights to be issued to Fortescue Metals CEO Dino Otranto and Fortescue Energy CEO Mark Hutchinson. The company’s remuneration report passed with 98.9% of proxies in favour, avoiding a second “strike” for the company.

In Australia, if more than 25% of shareholders vote against a company’s remuneration report, it constitutes a strike. Two consecutive strikes trigger a board spill motion. Forrest reiterated his commitment to the company he founded 20 years ago, pointing out that he’d recently stepped down as chairman of his charity Minderoo Foundation to spend more time on Fortescue.

“It’s really got my focus, so it’s all hands to the pump over the next couple of years,” he said. TNM

about the consequences of such a broad declaration.

“Since the minister has not agreed to revoke the Section 10 declaration, we are now seeking judicial review and relief from the decision,” the company said.

Regis hopes that the Federal Court will declare the Section 10 ruling legally invalid and appoint a new decision-maker to reassess the claims.

The project had faced delays since October 2020, when the Section 10 application was submitted, despite having received all other major state and federal approvals.

If the company is successful in its judicial review, it expects the Federal Court to declare the ruling legally invalid and appoint a new decision-maker to reassess all claims.

Shares in the company fell on the announcement, closing almost 5% lower to A$2.48 each in Sydney on Nov. 7. Regis has a market capitalization of almost A$1.9 billion (US$1.3 billion). TNM

Fortescue founder Andrew Forrest at the company’s AGM. KRISTIE BATTEN

Regis Resources’ McPhillamys Project in New South Wales. REGIS RESOURCES

> Clive Johnson from P10

following the country’s move to democracy marked a period of economic expansion dubbed the “Chilean economic miracle.”

“The new government turned the country around into a democracy and a free market economy after having this significant history of anti-foreign investment and civil rights abuses,” he said. “So sometimes part of our judgment is predicting when countries are in economic and or political transition.”

That’s not to say there are no red lines B2Gold won’t cross. The safety of its 6,700 employees around the world is paramount, Johnson says, and being willing to take measured risk is not the same as being reckless.

B2Gold’s credo is to bring what Johnson calls the “Canadian values” of fairness, respect and transparency to the world.

Johnson, the youngest of four children born to immigrants from Britain, credits his parents’ working-class roots for both his entrepreneurial bent, and for that credo.

“(My parents) started with very little, they both had to quit school at 14 in Liverpool to go to work during the war,” he says. “They’re one of millions of success stories of people leaving somewhere and taking a chance on Canada. They instilled the idea that you treat people with fairness and respect until they give you a reason not to.”

Johnson’s code has kept him grounded, even in the C-suite, says Kelvin Dushnisky, former CEO of AngloGold Ashanti (NYSE: AU) and B2Gold chair since 2023.

“His success is very clear, but I don’t think that’s fundamentally changed him,” Dushnisky said. “When you look beneath Clive’s force-of-nature personality, and I say that in a positive way, you find that he has a very strong sense of humanity and a social conscience.”

Mental health awareness

That was reflected in October 2022, when Johnson chose to speak out publicly about his struggles with depression and anxiety for World Mental Health Day. He also spoke about the loss of his son, who succumbed in 2021 to an accidental fentanyl drug overdose at the age of 30.

“There are so many people that are dying tragically, completely unnecessarily. We have to deal with it — it’s become the top cause of death amongst young people, which is just shocking.”

While Johnson, an ex-rugby player in his youth and keenly aware that he’s supposed to be the “powerful leader,” was at first unsure about going public, he wanted to lead by example.

“I did it for a lot of reasons but one of them was to help our employees and other people realize that it’s OK to reach out if you’re struggling emotionally, mentally, psychologically, physically. Whatever it is, reach out.”

Peers like Dushnisky say it was a brave thing to do in service of helping others.

“His candour and his willingness to reveal his own pain and personal vulnerability having come through this, I think it’s contributed to making what’s already a very strong family culture at B2Gold even stronger.”

Homecoming

Given B2Gold’s reputation for taking on risk, how to explain B2Gold’s latest acquisition of Nunavut-focused gold developer Sabina Resources last year in an all-stock deal valued at $1.1 billion?

Part of it was driven by the opportunity for geopolitical diversification, Johnson said.

Once the $1.5-billion, 300,000 oz. per year Goose mine starts up in mid-2025, Canada will account for just under a third of B2Gold’s output. The company’s overall output next year is projected at 1 million to 1.1 million oz. of gold.

But he also notes that permitting in Canada, as well as Indigenous participation in mining, have both improved since Bema made its decision to go international over 35 years ago.

“(The acquisition) doesn’t reflect a change in strategy or risk appetite,” Dushnisky said. “It’s consistent with how the company has historically generated its success: taking on projects in highly prospective areas and levering its competitive advantage – in this case building in colder climates – to the benefit of B2Gold shareholders.”

Describing the complicated logistical ballet of bringing supplies to the mine via 10 ships travelling from Montreal through Bathurst Inlet in Nunavut before the ocean freezes and building 160 km of ice roads to site, Johnson notes: “It’s a huge undertaking and it’s right up our alley.”

Notably, B2Gold and Bema before it both build their own projects rather than hire outside contractors to do the job.

It’s a key reason for their success, and Johnson says being a generalist — an objective outsider — has also helped him get and retain the technical teams that are crucial to pull together.

“Geologists and engineers don’t always get along but they both desperately need each other,” he said, explaining that sometimes geologists see engineers as “deposit killers” while engineers view geologists as “arm wavers.”

“One of my roles as CEO has been to get everyone on the same page and break down the silos,” he says, adding he’s fortunate to have worked with remarkably talented and experienced teams over the years.

It’s a job that Johnson — who was recovering from a knee replacement surgery at press time — doesn’t appear ready to give up in favour of retirement.

“I’m still passionate about what we do. I’ll know when the time comes.” TNM

> Resolute from P11

Sustained pressure

“We have seen a broader pattern of resource nationalism in West Africa,” Alex Vines, Africa director at the Chatham House think tank in London, said by email. “I do not expect pressure on mining companies to diminish, especially if gold production is increasing and the global price remains high.”

The Australian gold miner lost a third of its value after it acknowledged the detainments to the market on Nov. 11. The company’s stock closed as low as A36¢ (33¢) apiece in Sydney during the episode before climbing to A40¢ near press time, valuing the company at A$862.3 million. They’ve traded in a 52-week range of A32¢ to A89¢.

“This past week’s events were discouraging to say the least, with Resolute forced (in our view) to sign a protocol agreement and agree to pay US$160 million despite four years remaining on Syama’s mining lease,” SCP Resource Finance said in a Nov. 18 note. “Given the uncertainty and negative precedent, we expect Mali to trade at a discount for some time.”

New mining code

“The junta will likely continue to use arbitrary detentions of mining sector operators to enforce compliance with the new mining code,” analyst Beverly Ochieng at London-based Control Risks said by email. “Negotiations between the government and mining companies will remain opaque.”

The government is prolonging these regulatory disputes by auditing the mining industry to claim tax arrears and scrutinize ownership and registration documents, Ochieng said.

“Political interference in the mining sector will become more prevalent in the coming years as the junta increases its economic stake,” she said. “The aim may not necessarily be to completely deter or drive out Western operators in order to hand over opera-

> S+P from P11

By contrast, U.S. exploration spending rose, driven by increased copper and lithium allocations. Laws like the Inflation Reduction Act boosted domestic supplies of critical minerals by helping fund exploration budgets.

POWERING THE FUTURE WITH WYOMING’S RICH URANIUM LEGACY

Strathmore has three permitted uranium projects in Wyoming: Agate, Beaver Rim, and Night Owl. The Agate and Beaver Rim properties contain uranium mineralization in typical Wyomingtype roll front deposits based on historical and recent drilling data. The Night Owl property is a former producing surface mine that was in production in the early 1960s.

“The U.S. has shown resilience in exploration budgets, particularly in states like Nevada and Arizona, which have seen renewed interest due to policy incentives and their proximity to infrastructure,” Francesca Price, senior analyst for critical mineral research, said. “Sustained interest in the crit-

> Orla Mining from P12

duction over three years as part of a gold prepay arrangement; increasing debt from Canadian banks to around $250 million to $350 million; and a $200 million convertible debt facility for cornerstone shareholders such as Franco-Nevada (TSX: FNV; NYSE: FNV) co-founder Pierre Lassonde. The facility allows conversion at a share price 40% higher than before the deal.

The strategy aims to pay off the debt within three years, with the possibility of a quicker payback if gold prices remain favourable, Simpson told BNN-Bloomberg television.

Contingency payments

The deal requires Orla to pay Newmont up to US$40 million if

tions to more favourable partners such as Russia and China, but to demonstrate that the junta can enforce measures that align with its resource nationalism drive.”

Raising stakes

Mali’s junta, which came to power in coups in 2020 and 2021, has been pressing for higher compensation from Western gold producers after passing a new mining law last year that can raise government stakes to 35% from 20% previously.

It arrested then released four Barrick employees in October in a US$500 million tax dispute from its Loulo-Gounkoto mine complex. The military leaders have threatened to withhold Barrick’s licence, while the company has said a deal should be reached by year’s end.

Holohan and his colleagues left the country immediately after their release. They were in regular communication with Resolute during the detention, while the British and other embassies lent support, the company said.

Allied Gold (TSX: AAUC) signed a 10-year deal on its Sadiola mine with Mali in September. B2Gold (TSX: BTO; NYSE-A: BTG) agreed with the government separately the same month on the Fekola mine.

SCP said the US$160 million payment and a likely 10% royalty in the new mining code would reduce Syama’s net asset value (NAV) to US$1.4 billion. Its base and conservative case NAV per share estimates are A$1.03 per share and A87¢ per share, respectively, implying Resolute is trading at 0.3 to 0.4 times NAV. Analyst Justin Chan kept his buy rating on the stock.

“We do expect things to stabilize in Mali as the major operators Allied, B2Gold, Resolute and Barrick have either signed final agreements or protocol agreements,” Chan wrote. “The downside is the government has set a precedent of not respecting fiscal stability conventions which makes it uncertain if or when they may seek additional concessions.” TNM

ical minerals supply chain should help buffer the sector from further declines in exploration.”

The metals and mining industry is split, Ferguson said. Major companies are expanding through acquisitions. Juniors are struggling for funds. This raises questions about the long-term health of new project development.

“The sector’s resilience is being tested,” Ferguson said. “But, with demand for critical minerals high, there’s hope. Exploration budgets may stabilize in 2025 for the key commodities of the energy transition.” TNM

gold exceeds US$2,900 per oz. and US$3,000 per oz. during the first and second full-year periods following the purchase’s expected closure in next year’s first quarter. Orla also sees further growth through the development of the South Railroad project in Nevada, which could take its output to 500,000 oz. per year.

The transaction is the first in a series of planned divestments by Newmont. The Denver-based gold miner aims to raise up to US$2.9 billion from selling non-core assets following its US$17 billion acquisition of Newcrest.

Other Canadian assets currently on the market include the Éléonore and Porcupine mines and the Coffee project. Additionally, Newmont plans to sell its Cripple Creek & Victor mine in Colorado. TNM

TSXV: SUU

OTCQB: SUUFF

Chairs’ Welcome

On behalf of the AME Roundup Organizing Committee, we look forward to welcoming you to AME Roundup 2025, the premier conference for the global mineral exploration industry. AME Roundup returns to the Vancouver Convention Centre East from January 20 to 23, 2025, where the mineral exploration industry will explore how we are Securing Our Future, the theme unifying the conference content over the four days. Join thousands of participants, including geoscientists, prospectors, financiers, investors, suppliers, governments and Indigenous partners from around the world.

You can look forward to a variety of engaging sessions, including high-calibre technical talks, short courses, keynote presentations, and meaningful discussions at The Gathering Place. In the Exhibit Hall, you will discover the latest breakthroughs showcased in the Core Shack and Prospectors’ Tent, future discoveries in the Project Generators’ Hub, and connect with a diverse array of essential partners and vendors.

See you at AME Roundup 2025 – where deals are made, talent is discovered, and trends are set.

AME ROUNDUP 2025: Securing Our Future

AME Roundup will bring together participants from around the globe to engage in meaningful dialogue on how the mineral exploration and mining industry is securing our future through:

• Supporting a critical minerals industry from discovery to distribution.

• Regulatory and Permitting Efficiency

• Economic Reconciliation and Indigenous Engagement

• Human Capital Development and Workforce Diversity

• Technological Innovation and Industry Transformation

We are on the cusp of an exciting era for mineral exploration, where society needs prospectors and explorers to discover the mines of tomorrow. AME Roundup 2025 will showcase BC as a global centre of excellence in mining with the experience, knowledge, and geology to prove it.

ABOUT AME

AME is the lead association for the mineral exploration and development industry based in British Columbia. Established in 1912, AME represents, advocates and promotes the interests of over 5,000 members who are engaged in mineral exploration and development in BC and globally. AME encourages a safe, economically strong and environmentally responsible industry by providing clear initiatives, policies, events and tools to support its membership in delivering responsible projects that advance reconciliation and provide benefit to all British Columbians.

GENERAL INFORMATION

LOCATION | Vancouver Convention Centre East

DATES | January 20 – 23, 2025

REGISTRATION & CONFERENCE INFORMATION | roundup.amebc.ca

ENQUIRIES | For registration questions, contact AME Roundup Registration at 604-630-3921 or email roundup@amebc.ca

Danielle Mountjoy Teck Resources Limited

Albert Chong AC GeoAdvisory Ltd.

CO-CHAIRS, AME ROUNDUP ORGANIZING COMMITTEE

THANK YOU TO THE INCREDIBLE SPONSORS WHO SUPPORT AME INITIATIVES AND EVENTS.

The Association for Mineral Exploration sincerely thanks the sponsors of AME Roundup 2025 (as confirmed at the time of printing) for their support.

PATRON PLATINUM

Speaker Sessions Events

Monday

Opening Ceremony

Monday, January 20

8:30 AM – 10 AM

Keynote Speaker: Adam Lundin, Chair, Lundin Mining Corporation

Overviews

Monday, January 20

10 AM – 12 PM Theme Session: Securing Our Future

Monday, January 20

1:30 PM – 4 PM

Monday, January 20

Tuesday

Advances in Geoscience Tuesday, January 21

9

Tuesday, January 21 1:30 PM – 4 PM

Wednesday

Precious Metals

Wednesday, January 22 9 AM – 11:30 AM

Geoscience Innovation Wednesday, January 22 1:30 PM – 4 PM

The Gathering Place Wednesday, January 22 9 AM – 11:30 AM and 1:30 PM – 4 PM

The Gathering Place is a must-attend session exploring all aspects of Indigenous Relations in mineral exploration and development that has become an AME Roundup staple.

Thursday

BC, Yukon and Alaska

Thursday, January 23 9 AM – 11:30 AM

AME Awards Gala: Celebration

NETWORKING EVENTS

DISCOVERY DAY Free family event

Sunday, January 19 | 10 AM – 2 PM

ICE BREAKER RECEPTION Sunday, January 19 | 4 PM – 6 PM

CHAIR’S WELCOME DINNER Invitation only Sunday, January 19 | 7 PM – 10 PM

AME LUNCH

Monday, January 20 | 12 PM – 1:30 PM

Keynote Speaker: Bernard Wessels

Managing Director, North America, Newmont Corporation

Keynote speaker Bernard Wessels will discuss the unique opportunity for British Columbia to advance mining initiatives while promoting reconciliation and supporting the energy transition.

EXHIBIT HALL HAPPY HOUR

Monday, January 20 – Wednesday, January 22 | 4 PM – 5 PM Thursday, January 23 | 1:15 PM – 2 PM

FINANCE LUNCH

Tuesday, January 21 | 12 PM – 1:30 PM

Keynote Speaker: Doug Silver CEO, Balfour Holdings, LLC

Join keynote speaker Doug Silver, an expert with over 45 years of experience and a distinguished member of both the U.S. and Canadian Mining Halls of Fame. Doug will share valuable insights on effective investor management strategies specifically designed for exploration-stage companies.

STUDENT-INDUSTRY NETWORKING EVENT

Tuesday, January 21 | 5:30 PM – 7:30 PM

BC NIGHT

Tuesday, January 21 | 7 PM – 10 PM

RECONCILIATION BREAKFAST

Wednesday, January 22 | 7:30 AM – 9 AM

PIONEERS’ LUNCH

Wednesday, January 22 | 11:30 AM – 1:30 PM

TORONTO STOCK EXCHANGE MARKET CLOSE Thursday, January 23 | 12:30 PM – 1:15 PM

Exhibit Hall

See You at AME Roundup

mining, metals & markets

Global gold funds data 34 Mining events contents

Capital raisings

*Data may not be comprehensive and is provided on a best-efforts basis as of press time. Investors are responsible for their own due diligence. 33 Market news

ETF assets

EV metals

Drill results

Warrants & shorts

Market data

Delivering fit-for-purpose solutions across the entire project life cycle

Delivering fit-for-purpose solutions across the entire project life cycle

Delivering fit-for-purpose solutions across the entire project life cycle

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Our fit-for-purpose solutions encompass the skills of qualified geologists, geostaticians, analytical chemists, mineralogists, metallurgists, process engineers and mining engineers and inspectors brought together to provide accurate and timely mineral and process evaluation services across the entire project life cycle.

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drillresults

TNM DRILL DOWN: TOP ASSAYS OF THE MONTH

Our TNM Drill Down features the top 10 gold, copper and silver assays of the past month. Drill holes are ranked by grade x width.

October 16, 2024 — November 15, 2024

warrants&shorts

TSX WARRANTS

Aris Gold Corporation ARIS.WT One Warrant to purchase one Common 07-29-2025 Share of the Issuer at $2.75 until expiry.

Name Symbol Subsciption Terms Expiry Date

Omineca Mining and OMM.RT 3 Rights exercisable for 1 share at 11-20-2024 Metals Ltd $0.04 per share.

Giga Metals Corporation GIGA.WT.A One warrant to purchase one common 02-08-2025 share at $0.45 per share.

LithiumBank Resources LBNK.WT One warrant to purchase one common 02-16-2025 Corp. share at $2.00 per share.

Total Helium Ltd. TOH.WT.A One warrant to purchase one common 05-01-2025 share at $0.75 per share.

Caldas Gold Corp. CGC.WT One warrant to purchase one common 07-29-2025 share at $2.75 per share.

Rock Tech Lithium Inc. RCK.WT One warrant to purchase one common 08-19-2025 share at $4.50 per share.

Lion One Metals Limited LIO.WT One warrant to purchase one common 11-11-2025 share at $1.25 per share.

Vizsla Royalties Corp. VROY.WT One warrant to purchase one common 12-31-2025 share at $0.50 per share.

Silver Mountain AGMR.WT.A One warrant to purchase one common 02-09-2026

Resources Inc. share at $0.45 per share.

Osisko Development ODV.WT.B One warrant to purchase one common 03-02-2026 Corp. share at $8.55 per share.

Denarius Silver Corp. DSLV.WT One warrant to purchase one common 03-17-2026 share at $0.80 per share.

West Red Lake Gold WRLG.WT One warrant to purchase one common 05-16-2026 Mines Ltd share at $1.00 per share.

Aurania Resources Ltd. ARU.WT.B One warrant to purchase one common 10-21-2026 share at $2.20 per share.

Freeman Gold Corp FMAN.WT.U One warrant to purchase one common 11-29-2026 share at US$0.65 per share.

Mogotes Metals Inc MOG.WT One warrant to purchase one common 01-31-2027 share at $0.30 per share.

Osisko Development ODV.WT.A One warrant to purchase one common 03-02-2027 Corp. share at $14.75 per share.

Integra Resources Corp. ITR.WT One warrant to purchase one common 03-13-2027 share at $1.20 per share.

Elevation Gold Mining ELVT.WT.A One warrant to purchase one common 03-24-2027 Corporation share at $0.70 per share.

Osisko Development ODV.WT.U One warrant to purchase one common 05-27-2027 Corp. share at US$10.70 per share.

Robex Resources Inc RBX.WT One warrant to purchase one common 06-27-2027 share at $2.55 per share.

West Red Lake Gold WRLG.WT.B One warrant to purchase one common 10-24-2027

Mines Ltd share at $0.90 per share.

Silver Mountain AGMR.WT.B One warrant to purchase one common 04-24-2028

Resources Inc. share at $0.135 per share.

Bear Creek Mining BCM.WT One warrant to purchase one common 10-05-2028 Corporation share at $0.42 per share.

West Red Lake Gold WRLG.WT.A One warrant to purchase one common 03-19-2029 Mines Ltd share at $0.95 per share.

$5.50

marketdata

Aluminum: US$1.16/lb.

Cobalt: US$10.91/lb.

Gold: US$2,630.17/oz.

Iron Ore 62% Fe CFR China-S: US$101.76

Nickel: US$6.93/lb.

Silver: US$31.24 per oz.

Zinc: US$1.34 per lb.

COMMODITY PRICES | Prices current November 19, 2024

Coal: Central Appalachia, 12,500 Btu, 1.2 S02-R,W: US$78.65

Copper: US$4.02/lb.

Iridium: US$4,600/tr oz.

Lead: US$0.87/lb.

Rhodium: US$4,625/tr. oz.

Tin: US$13.165/lb.

Coal: Powder River Basin, 8,800 Btu, 0.8 S02-R, W: US$14.05

Copper: CME Group Futures January 2025: US$4.18/lb.;

February 2025: US$4.17/lb.

Lithium carbonate: US$10,450/tonne

Ruthenium: US$485 per oz.

Uranium: U3O8, Trading Economics: US$81.75 per lb.

Nov. 11-15, 2024

Markets drop on policy uncertainty; gold tumbles

Cameco, Perpetua, Canterra buck trend

By Henry Lazenby

Major markets fell later in the week of Nov. 11–15 after initial post-election optimism faded. Concerns grew over policy uncertainties, rising Treasury yields and cautious Fed signals.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 544 points or about 1.2% to 43,444.9 points, and the S&P 500 lost 124.9 points or about 2% to 5,870.62. In Canada, the S&P/TSX Index gained 131.28 points or 0.5% to 24,890.6, while the S&P/TSX Venture Composite Index fell 18.02 points or 3% to 591.2.

The S&P/TSX Global Mining Index fell 7.6 points or about 6% to 119.2, and the S&P/TSX Global Gold Index fell 30.3 points or 9.2% to 339.5. Gold fell US$119.35 per oz. or 4.4% to US$2,571.80

per ounce. The S&P/TSX Global Base Metals Index fell by 10.44 points or about 4.9% to 202.7, with copper down US19¢ at US$4.26 per pound.

On the NYSE mainboard, the week’s biggest percentage and value gainer was Cameco. It closed at US$1.05 or 2% higher at US$53.59 on continued longterm uranium price strength.

In Toronto, Perpetua Resources was among the top TSX value gainers, adding $1.80 to close at $14.97. The company’s Stibnite gold project recently achieved key permitting milestones.

On the S&P/TSX Venture Exchange, Canterra Minerals gained 150% to 10¢. It reports steady exploration progress at the Buchans project in Newfoundland.

miningevents

2024

n December

December 1-2

International Metals Symposium — London, U.K.

VENUE: ETC Venues

MORE INFORMATION: events.northernminer.com/ international-metals-symposium-2024/

December 2-3

Mining Critical Minerals India Conference and Expo — New Delhi

Venue: TBA

MORE INFORMATION: www.criticalmineralsindia.com

December 3-5

Mines and Money — London, U.K.

VENUE: TBA

MORE INFORMATION: www.minesandmoney.com/ london/index

December 5-6

Mining and Critical Minerals Investment — London, U.K.

VENUE: Doubletree by Hilton London

MORE INFORMATION: www. mininginvestmentlondon.com

December 11-14

International Trade Fair for Construction Machinery, Building Material Machines, Mining Machines and Construction Vehicles — Delhi, India

VENUE: India Expo Centre

MORE INFORMATION: www.bcindia.com/en/tradefair/current-information/

December 12-13

Mining Tech 2024 — Ankara, Turkey

VENUE: Hacettepe University Beytepe Tunçalp Özgen Congress and Culture Center

MORE INFORMATION: www. maden-tek.com

December 16-17

Mining World Congress — London, U.K.

VENUE: Kensington Conference and Events Centre

MORE INFORMATION: www.miningconferences.org

2025

n January

January 14-16

Future Minerals Forum — Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

VENUE: King Abdulaziz International Conference Center

MORE INFORMATION: www.futuremineralsforum. com

January 14-16

TD Annual Global Mining Conference

VENUE: TBA

MORE INFORMATION: www.northisle.ca/events/tdannual-global-mining-conference/

January 19-20

Vancouver Resource Investment Conference

VENUE: Vancouver Convention Centre West

MORE INFORMATION: www.cambridgehouse.com/ vancouver-resource-investment-conference

January 20-23

AME Roundup - Vancouver

VENUE: Vancouver Convention Centre, East Building

MORE INFORMATION: roundup.amebc.ca

n February

February 3-6

Mining Indaba — Cape Town, South Africa

VENUE: Cape Town International Convention Centre

MORE INFORMATION: miningindaba.com/home

February 12-13

Mining & Critical Minerals Korea Conference and Exhibition — Seoul

VENUE: TBA

MORE INFORMATION: www.criticalmineralskorea. com

February 23-26

Global Metals, Mining & Critical Minerals Conference — Hollywood, Fl.

VENUE: TBA

MORE INFORMATION: capitalmarkets.bmo.com/en/ industries/global-metals-mining/

February 24-25

Critical Minerals and Energy Investment — Brisbane, Australia

VENUE: TBA

MORE INFORMATION: www. criticalmineralresources.com

February 26-27

Mining & Critical Minerals Korea Conference and Exhibition — Seoul

VENUE: TBA

MORE INFORMATION: www.criticalmineralskorea. com

n March

March 2-5

PDAC 2025 — Toronto

VENUE: Metro Toronto Convention Centre

MORE INFORMATION: www.pdac.ca/convention

March 2-5

PDAC 2025 – Toronto

VENUE: Metro Toronto Convention Centre

MORE INFORMATION: www.pdac.ca/convention

March 18-19

Swiss Mining Institute – Zurich

VENUE: The Dolder Grand

MORE INFORMATION: www.swissmininginstitute.ch

n May

May 4-7

CIM Convention — Montreal

VENUE: TBA

MORE INFORMATION: convention.cim.org

May 12-13

Mining & Critical Minerals Middle East Conference and Exhibition — Dubai

VENUE: TBA MORE INFORMATION: www.miningcriticalminerals. com

May 21-22

Mining Investment Asia — Singapore

VENUE: Marriott Tang Plaza Hotel

MORE INFORMATION: www.mininginvestmentasia. com

n June

June 11-12

Mining & Critical Minerals Investment Latin America — São Paulo, Brazil

VENUE: TBA MORE INFORMATION: www. criticalmineralslatinamerica.com

Never Miss Another Story

EXPLORATION PROJECTS TO WATCH: Hunting the globe for gold and critical metals

BY NORTHERN MINER STAFF

Exploration is the lifeblood of the mining industry and majors are always looking for junior explorers with prospective projects. Our snapshot this month looks at eight projects in Africa, Eastern Europe, South America, Canada and the United States.

n Awalé Resources

Explorer Awalé Resources (TSXV: ARIC) is focused on Côte d’Ivoire, where it holds a 39% stake in the Odienné copper-gold project in a joint venture with Newmont (TSX: NGT; NYSE: NEM; ASX: NEM). Newmont already owns a 51% stake in the joint venture under an earn-in agreement. In October, the gold major said it would exercise an option to buy an additional 10% stake held by Africa New Geological Technologies Côte d’Ivoire. It can increase its stake to 75% by spending US$10 million and defining a resource of 2 million gold ounces. The project does not yet have a resource. The joint venture covers two of Awalé’s seven permits, or 796 sq. km of the 2,462-sq.-km property in the northwest Denguèlé Region near Côte d’Ivoire’s borders with Mali and Guinea.

It’s made four gold, gold-copper and gold-copper-silver-molybdenum discoveries within the two permits at the Charger, BBM, Empire, Sceptre and Lando targets.

At Charger, where gold has been found within near-surface hematite breccias, drill highlights include 57 metres grading 26 grams gold per tonne from 164 metres downhole, including 32 metres of 45.7 grams gold in drill hole OECD-83. Hole OEDD-88 cut 29 metres grading 20 grams gold from 149 metres downhole. These holes are amongst the highest-grade drill intersections this year.

Drilling at BBM, an 8-km-long copper-gold anomalous corridor, has returned 75 metres of 2.4 grams gold-equivalent from 242 metres in hole OEDD-74. The company expects to complete its first resource for BBM in the second half of next year. At Sceptre East, copper targets along a multi-kilometre area have yielded 358.5 metres of 0.34% copper-equivalent from 6.5 metres in drill hole OEDD-43. Rock samples from Lando, a large copper anomaly, have also returned 4.6 grams gold and 3 grams gold.

At Empire, a 20-km-long gold corridor, assays include 15 metres grading 13.1 grams gold from 69 metres depth in hole OEDD-24. Exploration at Empire has covered about 5 km of the 20-km trend.

Awale completed an $11.5-mil-

lion capital raise in April and started exploration on its 100%-owned permits. In October, the company uncovered a 3.5-km gold footprint on its Sienso permit, finding greater than 37 parts per billion gold in termite mounds with a peak value of 1.3 grams gold. The discovery at Sienso is about 4 km along strike from the joint venture’s BBM target. Awalé Resources has a market cap of $38.2 million.

n Dundee Precious Metals

Dundee Precious Metals (TSX: DPM) is on track to complete a prefeasibility study on its Čoka Rakita project in Serbia during the

first quarter of 2025, submit an environmental impact assessment in 2026, and start concentrate production in 2028.

Recent infill drilling returned 74 metres at 27.3 grams gold from 426 metres in hole RIDD055, including 37 metres grading 47.44 grams gold and 0.11% copper. Other highlights included 83 metres of 3.9 grams gold and 0.24% copper from 385 metres in RIDD057; 67 metres of 10.61 grams gold and 0.23% copper from 387 metres in RIDD069, and 71 metres of 3.39 grams gold starting 414 metres downhole in RIDD060.

The project, 35 km northwest of the city of Bor in Serbia, is about 3 km southeast of the company’s

Timok gold project and 320 km from its Chelopech mine in Bulgaria.

Dundee discovered a high-grade deposit at Čoka Rakita in January 2023 and completed a preliminary economic assessment (PEA) earlier this year. The study envisioned an underground mine with an initial 10-year life producing a total of 1.3 million oz. gold or 129,000 oz. gold annually at an all-in sustaining cost of US$1,700 per ounce. The PEA forecast a post-tax net present value (at 5% discount rate) of US$588 million and an internal rate of return of 33%. Initial capital costs were pegged at US$381 million, with payback after 2.4 years.

Dundee also is pursuing addi-

tional skarn targets in the area.

Results from drilling 1 km north of Čoka Rakita in September included 63 metres of 1.74% copper, 2.18 grams gold and 9.04 grams silver from 639 metres downhole in DPDD018A and 70 metres of 1.26% copper, 1.21 grams gold and 6.89 grams silver from 372 metres in DPDD019B.

In other news, the company received approval in August to sell its stake in the Tsumeb smelter in Namibia to a subsidiary of China’s Sinomine Resource Group.

Dundee has a market cap of roughly $2.5 billion.

n Faraday Copper

Exploration drilling at Faraday Copper’s (TSX: FDY; US-OTC: CPPKF) Copper Creek project in Arizona has been the company’s focus since it released a resource estimate and PEA last year.

Results from a 30,000-metre follow-up drill program at the project, 80 km northeast of Tucson, will be incorporated into an updated estimate in 2025.

In October, drilling cut 22.7 metres grading 1.31% copper within 50.2 metres of 0.74% copper starting from 46.2 metres depth in hole FCD-24-07 at the Banjo breccia.

The discovery hole at Banjo, FCD-24-070, returned 117.9 metres of 1.01% copper and 1.87 grams silver from 323.5 metres, including 15.89 metres of 2.15% copper and 2.48 grams silver.

Above: Mineralized veins at Founders Metals’ Antino project in southeast Suriname. FOUNDERS METALS

Rox Resources’ Youanmi gold project in Western Australia. ROX RESOURCES

> Snapshot from P35

Other highlights include 20.1 metres grading 1.2% copper, 0.1% molybdenum and 6.8 grams silver starting from 406.6 metres in hole FCD-24-064. The hole ended in mineralization.

Copper Creek hosts 421.9 million measured and indicated tonnes grading 0.45% copper, 0.01% molybdenum and 1.1 grams silver (0.48% copper-equivalent) in open pit and underground resources. It also holds 83.6 million inferred tonnes grading 0.34% copper, 0.01% molybdenum and 0.6 gram silver (0.36% copper-equivalent). The resource is open in all directions.

A 2023 PEA envisioned a combined open pit and underground operation producing copper and molybdenum concentrates with silver byproduct credits over a mine life of 32 years. The study forecast annual payable production of 106 million lb. copper, 1.4 million lb. molybdenum and 324,600 oz. silver. Life-of-mine production would total 3.2 billion lb. copper, 45.1 million lb. molybdenum, and 9.7 million oz. silver (3.4 billion lb. copper equivalent).

With all-in sustaining costs of US$1.85 per lb. copper, the project’s post-tax net present value (at 7% discount rate) was pegged at US$713 million, with an internal rate of return of 15.6%. Initial capex of US$798 million could be paid back in 4.1 years.

Faraday Copper has a market cap of $183 million.

n Founders Metals

It has been a busy year for Founders Metals (TSXV: FDR) at its Antino gold project in southeastern Suriname, as it works towards an initial resource next year.

In early November, Founders closed a $12.1-million financing with B2Gold (TSX: BTO; NYSE-AM: BTG), which now owns a 5% stake in the junior. B2Gold’s strategy is to invest “early in discoveries with Tier 1 potential,” CEO Clive Johnson said, and that the technical and management team at Founders had “clearly highlighted the district-scale potential” at Antino.

The project, in the heart of the Guiana Shield about 275 km south of the capital city of Paramaribo, has also attracted Chris Taylor, the founder and CEO of Great Bear Resources, which Kinross Gold (TSX: K; NYSE: KGC) acquired for $1.8 billion in 2022. Taylor, a structural

and economic geologist, joined Founders as an independent director on Oct. 1.

Capping off October was a bought-deal private placement that raised $20 million. Together with the $12.1 million equity investment from B2Gold, Founders says it will have sufficient funds for exploration next year.

Highlights from this year’s exploration program in the project’s Buese area include 78 metres grading 2.35 grams gold from 162 metres, including 20 metres at 7.65 grams gold, in drill hole 24BUO11; 16.5 metres of 1.64 grams gold from 6.6 metres in hole 24BU007; and 16 metres of 1.08 grams gold from 215 metres downhole in 24BU004.

Founders notes that artisanal mining in the project area has produced an estimated 500,000 oz. gold.

The company has an option to earn up to 75% of the Antino project from Nana Resources, and is in the process of earning an initial 51% stake. The parties amended the agreement in September to remove requirements for a completed resource and PEA for earning the initial and increased stakes, respectively.

Founders Metals has a market cap of $274 million.

n Mawson Finland

Mawson Finland (TSXV: MFL) is exploring for gold and cobalt at its Rajapalot project near the Arctic Circle in northern Finland, about

35 km from the city of Rovaniemi.

The company was spun out of Mawson Gold (TSXV: MAW) in June, as part of the company’s planned merger with Southern Cross Gold (ASX: SXG), expected to close in November. Mawson Finland completed an initial public offering and started trading on the TSX Venture Exchange on Aug. 19.

Mawson completed its first exploration program at Rajapalot between January and April, with three rigs drilling 38 holes (11,376 metres) around the Palokas, Hut, Raja and Joki deposits.

Highlights include 7 metres grading 9.1 grams gold and 706 parts per million (ppm) cobalt from 88.7 metres in drill hole ALO346; 6 metres grading 2.24 grams gold and 302 ppm cobalt from 493.8 metres; and 5.3 metres of 2.75 grams gold and 559 ppm cobalt from 533.2 metres in drill hole PALO361. Hole PALO335 cut 20.7 metres grading 5.25 grams gold and 515 ppm cobalt from 295 metres.

Rajapalot hosts about 9.8 million inferred tonnes grading 2.8 grams gold and 441 ppm cobalt for 867,000 oz. gold and 4,311 tonnes cobalt.

A PEA in December 2023 outlined a nine-year mine life producing an average of 78,000 oz. gold and 311 tonnes of cobalt a year — for a total of 700,000 oz. gold and 2,800 tonnes cobalt — at an all-in sustaining cost of US$824 per oz. of gold. The study estimated an after-tax net present value (at 5% discount rate)

of US$211 million and a 27% internal rate of return. Initial capex of US$191 million could be repaid in three years. The PEA was based on a US$1,700 per oz. gold price and US$60,000 per tonne cobalt. Mawson Finland has a market cap of $49 million.

n Power Nickel

At the end of October, Power Nickel (TSXV: PNPN; US-OTC: PNPNF) reported the “biggest intersection yet” at its Lion Zone discovery near Nemaska in northern Quebec, part of its flagship polymetallic Nisk project.

Drill hole PN-24-071 cut 39.6 metres of 0.38 gram gold, 19.57 grams silver per tonne, 2.62% copper, 3.37 grams palladium, 0.8 gram platinum and 0.13% nickel (4.19% copper equivalent) starting from 157 metres downhole. The intercept included 11.6 metres of 0.88 gram gold, 49.9 grams silver, 8.25% copper, 9.57 grams palladium, 2.64 grams platinum and 0.34% nickel (12.46% copper equivalent) from 185 metres; and 3.6 metres of 1.56 grams gold, 63.03 grams silver, 10.39% copper, 11.42 grams palladium, 7.9 grams platinum, and 0.32% nickel (16.89% copper equivalent).

Earlier in October, drill hole PN24-070 returned 32 metres of 0.45 gram gold per tonne, 20.93 grams silver, 3.62% copper, 8.1 grams palladium, 2.47 grams platinum and 0.18% nickel (6.97% copper equivalent) from 118 metres, including

11.4 metres of 0.6 gram gold, 44.51 grams silver, 8.39% copper, 11.52 grams palladium, 1.24 grams platinum and 0.42% nickel (11.94% copper equivalent).

In addition to its 2024 drill campaign (8,000 metres in 20 holes), Power Nickel began a property scale exploration program that included downhole and groundbased geophysical surveys.

In June, the company closed an over-subscribed $20-million flowthrough offering with the backing of mining investors Robert Friedland and Rob McEwen.

Geoscientist Steve Beresford, who has explored for magmatic nickel-copper-PGE deposits in 66 countries, joined the team as a special advisor in May.

To the west of the Lion Zone discovery, the Nisk Main zone extends over 650 metres to a depth of 500 metres.

The main zone hosts a combined in-pit and underground indicated resource of 5.4 million tonnes grading 1.05% nickel-equivalent and 1.8 million inferred tonnes grading 1.35% nickel equivalent, according to an initial estimate in November 2023.

Power Nickel has a market cap of $156 million.

n Premium Nickel

Premium Nickel (TSXV: PNRL) is focused on the redevelopment of two fully permitted mines—Selebi and Selkirk — that previously pro-

Left: Looking at core samples at Mawson Finland’s Rajapalot project. MAWSON FINLAND

Below: Drill shacks at Mawson’s Rajapalot project. MAWSON FINLAND

Faraday’s Copper Creek project in southern Arizona. FARADAY COPPER

duced nickel, copper, cobalt and platinum group elements in eastern Botswana.

The Selebi project consists of the Selebi North and Selebi Main deposits. The Selebi shaft opened in 1980 and operated for 36 years while the shaft at Selebi North opened a decade later and operated for 26 years. Selebi produced 26.6 million tonnes grading 0.58% nickel and 1.03% copper, and Selebi

North 13.9 million tonnes grading 0.74% nickel and 0.66% copper.

In October, Premium Nickel discovered new mineralization outside of its initial resource at Selebi North. Drill hole SNUG-24096-W1 cut 12.9 metres of 1.54% copper, 0.955 nickel and 0.05% cobalt (4.12% copper equivalent or 2% nickel equivalent) from 685 metres downhole.

Premium released its first re-

source estimate for Selebi in June. Selebi North hosts 3 million indicated tonnes grading 0.9% copper and 0.98% nickel and 5.8 million inferred tonnes of 0.9% copper and 1.07% nickel. Selebi Main contains about 18. 9 million inferred tonnes grading 1.69% copper and 0.88% nickel.

Recent assays from Selebi North include SNUG-24-123, which returned 13.8 metres of 1.29% cop-

per, 2.33% nickel and 0.12% cobalt (6.08% copper equivalent or 2.95% nickel equivalent) from 247 metres and 7.2 metres of 1.89% copper, 2.71% nickel and 0.11% cobalt (7.48% copper equivalent or 3.63% nickel equivalent) from 336 metres downhole in SNUG-23-131.

At Selkirk, about 75 km from Selebi, Premium Nickel is re-sampling historic drill core and recently reported highlights of 139 metres grading 0.47% copper, 0.38% nickel, 0.02% cobalt, 0.08 ppm gold, 0.16 ppm platinum and 0.68 ppm palladium (1.55% copper equivalent or 0.90% nickel equiv-

alent) from 71 metres in drill hole DSLK012.

Premium Nickel has a market cap of $106 million.

n Rox Resources

In late October, Rox Resources (ASX: RXL) released the second batch of assays from an 11,000metre drill program at its 100%owned Youanmi gold project near Mt. Magnet in Western Australia, which included 30.1 metres grading 19.81 grams gold from 325 metres downhole. The interval from drill hole RXDD129 included 23.9 metres of 24.7 grams gold from 324.5 metres.

Results from the first batch of holes reported earlier in the month included 3 metres of 16.71 grams gold from 111 metres in RXDD107; 2.4 metres of 15.44 grams gold from 265 metres in RXD106; and 3.9 metres of 4.69 grams gold from 176 metres RXD104.

A prefeasibility study released in July outlined a mine life of 7.7 years producing an average of 103,000 oz. a year at an all-in sustaining cost of A$1,676 (US$1,101.52) per ounce. Pre-production capex was pegged at A$245 million. The company expects to complete a definitive feasibility study next year. The project hosts underground probable reserves of 546,000 oz. in 3.8 million tonnes grading 4.4 grams gold. Combined open pit and underground indicated resources are 10.7 million tonnes at 4.5 grams gold for 1.6 million ounces. Inferred resources come to 5.5 million tonnes grading 4.2 grams gold for 740,000 ounces. Rox Resources has a market cap of about A$79

million.

(US$52)

TNM

A drill rig at Dundee’s Čoka Rakita project in Serbia. DUNDEE PRECIOUS METALS

Above: Power Nickel managers at the Nisk project in northern Quebec.

Below: Nisk is about 425 km northeast of Matagami, Que. POWER NICKEL

Left: Awalé’ Resources’ Odienné gold project in Côte d’Ivoire. AWALE RESOURCES

Below left: Inside a core shack at Premium Nickel’s Selebi project in Botswana. Below right: A drill rig at Selebi.

PREMIUM NICKEL

2025 FORECAST

Uranium price to recover next year on shortage, Trump policy, Sprott CEO says

FORECAST | Energy security, big tech demand to overcome utility deferrals

BY COLIN MCCLELLAND

The price of uranium will rebound from its lowest level in a year as supply shortages, nuclear energy’s promise for clean energy and president-elect Donald Trump’s America-first security stance provide support, the world’s largest investment fund in the physical metal says.

The heavy metal’s spot price fell to US$76.56 per lb. in November, down from a 17-year high of US$106 per lb. in February. But it should recover to between US$90 and US$100 a lb. by about June, according to John Ciampaglia, CEO of Sprott Asset Management. He runs the US$5.1-billion Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (TSX: U.U for USD; U.UN for CAD).

The United States and other Western nations such as Canada, Australia and Namibia are restarting or ramping up production of uranium oxide. Yet, it’s nowhere near enough to meet just the 50 million lb. a year needed to power U.S. nuclear power plants. Output from global leader Kazakhstan has been hampered by sulphuric acid shortages. The West is attempting to limit uranium supplies from pariah Russia, which controls some 40% of the world’s capacity to enrich uranium into fuel.

“What Trump will continue to do is support local industry in the name of national security and reshoring, and that obviously has implications right across the whole nuclear fuel supply chain,” Ciampaglia said in a Nov. 8 interview with The Northern Miner. “Canada will be a huge winner here as we

“WE’RE

A LITTLE BIT CONFUSED AROUND THE UTILITY BEHAVIOUR. WE WOULD HAVE THOUGHT THAT THEIR URGENCY TO BUY MORE URANIUM WOULD BE HIGHER, GIVEN THE RISKS TO THE SUPPLY CHAIN, GIVEN SOME OF THE PRODUCTION CHALLENGES WITH THE RESTARTS AND GIVEN THE LONG TIMELINES TO GET NEW MINES ONLINE.”

JOHN CIAMPAGLIA, CEO OF SPROTT ASSET MANAGEMENT

restart uranium projects and build new uranium mines.”

Utilities defer

However, utilities, which buy the majority of their uranium in longterm contracts, haven’t been stocking up on supplies during the supply shortage as much as Ciampaglia expected. Even some miners such as Cameco (TSX: CCO; NYSE: CCJ) have had to buy uranium on the spot market to meet utility supply contracts when production fell short. The needs for some 60 new nuclear plants under construction aren’t reflected in the spot price, he said. “We’re a little bit confused some-

times around the utility behaviour,” he said. “We would have thought that their urgency to buy more uranium would be higher, given the risks to the supply chain, given some of the production challenges with the restarts and given the long timelines to get new mines online. The market over the next four to six years is going to be very supply challenged.”

He said the price fell this year over uncertainty about the U.S. Congress passing an import ban in August against Russian enriched uranium. However, it doesn’t take effect until 2028 and some utilities may wait to see if Russia-friendly Trump cuts a deal with President Vladimir Putin to lift the sanctions.

“Energy security is driving a lot of the energy policy, so we’re really bullish on uranium,” Ciampaglia said, adding that the U.S. depends on nuclear for 19% of its power. “That price correction we’ve had in uranium this year is very overdone.”

Trump’s avowed stance to impose tariffs on all kinds of global trade and Putin’s own threat in September to retaliate against the West with sanctions on uranium, nickel and palladium complicates matters. Yet, energy security will be the driving force, the CEO said.

“The U.S. Department of Energy wants to force users in the U.S. to shift to domestic sources, given this capacity that’s being built is very, very expensive,” Ciampaglia said.

“They want that capacity to be filled through long-term contracts with the new capacity being scaled.”

Big tech

Uranium demand has more catalysts to rise as energy-hungry arti-

ficial intelligence spreads among tech giants Alphabet, the parent of Google, Amazon, Oracle and Microsoft. They’ve all bought property near nuclear plants, or made longterm power deals and expressed interest in the development of small nuclear reactors.

“It’s really interesting that big tech with very deep pockets of capital are really stepping up to the plate and acknowledging that they just can’t fund the building of new solar and wind farms to power these AI data centres,” Ciampaglia said.

“They also need firm clean power coming from large-scale reactors.”

Microsoft announced a 20-year power purchase agreement with Constellation Energy in September. It includes nuclear power from the Crane Clean Energy Center and the restart of Three Mile Island Unit

One. French state nuclear company Orano chose Tennessee in September to build an enrichment plant and its expanding another in southern France. Urenco, a British-Dutch-German nuclear fuel consortium, is expanding a site in New Mexico.

Projects due

One the production side, Cameco has been ramping up production at the MacArthur River and Key Lake mines in Saskatchewan. The plants were idled when uranium prices were low before the surge of green energy investments to limit climate change. Denison Mines (TSX: DML; NYSE: DNN) and NexGen Energy (TSX: NXE; NYSE: NXE; ASX: NXG) are progressing their advanced-stage Wheeler and Rook I projects, respectively. Even so, the projects are years if

not a decade away from producing. Also, the Canadian government has launched a national security review of Paladin Energy’s (ASX: PDN) proposed $1.1-billion takeover of Saskatchewan uranium developer Fission Uranium (TSX: FCU). Meantime, Cameco and Kazakhstan’s Kazatomprom (LSE: KAP), in a joint venture on the Inkai mine in the central Asian country, said this month it was performing about 20% below expectations.

In the U.S., companies such as Uranium Energy (NYSE-AM: UEC) and Energy Fuels (NYSE: UUUU; TSX: EFR) are reopening sites in Wyoming, Texas, Arizona and Utah after years of inactivity.

Delays

But Energy Fuels’ Canyon project near the Grand Canyon has faced delays due to regulatory challenges, environmental opposition and legal battles with groups concerned about its impact on the nearby national park and groundwater. EnCore Energy’s (TSXV: EU; NASDAQ: EU) Dewey Burdock project in South Dakota and Uranium Energy’s Sheep Mountain project in Wyoming have faced similar hurdles.

The Sprott Physical Uranium Trust raised about $65 million to $70 million in new equity in the last six weeks or so, the CEO said. It’s prepared for another September-to-May period when more long-term contracting tends to occur, he said.

“After having a little bit of a low, given all the distractions, we’re just going to get back into another up period,” he said. “We’d love to get back to buying more uranium.”

Nuclear power plant, Belgium. ADOBESTOCK/TONYV3112

Lithium could see modest 2025 recovery

BATTERY METALS | Tough year on tap for hard rock projects while brines enjoy advantage

BY CHRISTOPHER WILLIAMS

After years of torrid growth, 2024 was a lacklustre year for the global electric vehicle industry and, consequently, for global lithium demand.

While the EV market in Asia Pacific performed well, sales growth in the Americas slowed substantially and in Europe shifted into reverse, translating into a substantial slowdown in lithium demand growth.

At the same time, the flood of new supply in recent years, which producers in Australia and elsewhere are only now fully coming to grips with, saw lithium prices languish at levels roughly 80% below their peak.

At Adamas Intelligence, a Toronto-based battery metal and EV consultancy, we expect Asia Pacific, led by China where EVs now represent more than half of all vehicles sales, to continue to drive the global EV market in 2025 and beyond.

We’re also optimistic about prospects for a reacceleration of EV sales in the Americas and Europe, although the introduction of trade restrictions by the EU on madein-China cars and the incoming Trump administration’s plans for broad trade tariffs and a walk-back on climate goals are wildcards.

With battery material costs lower across the board, greater affordability should also provide support for the market next year. In 2025, Tesla aims to increase EV production by 500,000 units for the year with the release of the much-anticipated low-cost passenger car to be followed later by its much-touted robotaxi.

In Europe, automakers are set to face stricter CO2 standards and targets from next year, the first incremental change since 2021, spurring the expansion of more affordable mass market EV offerings on the continent.

The Chinese EV market will remain the no 1 driver of lithium demand and should receive a boost in 2025 not only through Beijing’s broader economic stimulus program, but ongoing incentives for Chinese buyers to switch from gasoline-powered cars.

EVs, PHEVs and energy storage

Interestingly, in China the rising popularity of extended range

plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) has offered some salvation for lithium demand in the past year owing to the especially large battery packs these vehicles possess.

On the battery chemistry front, nickel- and cobalt-free lithiumiron-phosphate (LFP) batteries will continue to capture market share from their nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) counterparts, in turn favouring lithium carbonate over lithium hydroxide, although the story differs from region to region.

Outside the EV market, we expect global lithium demand for energy storage systems to continue to surge next year, representing 13% of aggregate lithium demand,

growing at 45% year-on-year.

Overall, we expect global lithium demand to increase 26% to 1.46 million tonnes in 2025 on a lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) basis, up from an estimated 1.15 million tonnes this year.

Supply cuts: between rock and a hard place

Throughout this year, confusion as to who exactly represented the marginal supplier appears to have caused boardrooms to focus on rosy longer-term demand predictions leading to a deepening supply glut.

Despite subdued prices, China’s strategic lepidolite and Zimbabwean spodumene supply contin-

ued to come online while Australian spodumene producers adjusted production only slightly, focusing instead on cost efficiencies.

The delayed reaction from higher-cost hard rock miners meant only modest supply cuts have materialized to date, although that started to change in late 2024 as operations continued to lose money.

CATL’s curtailment of operations at its Jianxiawo mine has effectively debunked the loss leader narrative that held a large proportion of these high-cost Chinese lepidolite units would feed the market indefinitely.

From its peak in June 2024,

“WE EXPECT ASIA PACIFIC, LED BY CHINA WHERE EVS NOW REPRESENT MORE THAN HALF OF ALL VEHICLES SALES, TO CONTINUE TO DRIVE THE GLOBAL EV MARKET IN 2025 AND BEYOND... WITH BATTERY MATERIAL COSTS LOWER ACROSS THE BOARD, GREATER AFFORDABILITY SHOULD ALSO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR THE MARKET NEXT YEAR.”

China’s lepidolite production has halved to a level more in step with fundamentals. As such, we expect continued downward pressure on lepidolite production next year.

Rushed African supply In Africa, projects that were rushed to market could fade away as prices stay low.

Born out of the last peak price cycle, Chinese-controlled Zimbabwean mineral concentrate sources have stabilized, though there are signs of distress.

Their speed to market strategy hurt plant efficiencies, delivered low product grades, and owing to poor infrastructure, transport costs are substantial.

Consequently, high-cost petalite units are being shuttered (for example Sinomine’s Bikita mine) while the more remote operations face challenging ramp-up economics including Yahua’s newly constructed Kamativi mine and several Nigerian mines which may not deliver commercial volumes until prices recover.

Harsh realities for Aussie miners In Australia, only one lithium mine — Greenbushes — is currently cash flow positive. Reflecting this reality, Mineral Resources (ASX: MIN) put its Bald Hill operation into care and maintenance in November,

Lithium evaporation ponds in northern Argentina. ADOBESTOCK/FREEDOM WANTED

following Pilbara Minerals’ (ASX: PLS) earlier decision to suspend its Ngungaju plant.

In the interest of capital preservation, the industry is delaying development of the next generation of supply like Arcadium’s (NYSE: ALTM; ASX: LTM) Fenix 1B and Galaxy projects. As in times past, we expect this to exacerbate volatility when supply deficits emerge.

In future, with increased participation of large-cap resource companies, such as Rio Tinto (NYSE: RIO: LSE: RIO: ASX: RIO) or ExxonMobil, we may see more orderly transitions between cycles.

Big year for South America, DLE

Brine-sourced lithium units, comfortably cash flow positive at these prices, will continue to grow in line with demand in 2025, with expansions expected in Chile, together with a host of Argentinian and Chinese projects entering production.

Direct lithium extraction technology (DLE) promises greater recoveries and significantly shortened production time for brines.

Emerging DLE developers will keenly follow Eramet’s ramp-up of its Centenario in Argentina, particularly considering Tsingshan’s sudden departure from the project in October.

Owing to evaporative brine projects limited scalability and the industry’s blistering rate of growth over the last decade, DLE will need to prove commercially viable for brines to maintain its market share.

Overall, we expect global lithium supply to increase 16% to 1.58 million tonnes LCE in 2025, up from >

an estimated 1.36 million tonnes this year.

Modest price recovery in offing

China’s lithium chemical inventories have effectively doubled throughout 2024. This build-up is most pronounced in lithium hydroxide, as evidenced by the pronounced pressure seen in lithium hydroxide and spodumene concentrate markets.

An expected 115,000 tonne LCE surplus next year should put the lid on any near-term price spikes. Although due to lag effects of mined material moving through a growing supply chain, the effective inventory build at the margin

is much lower.

Our models point to days of inventory (inventory normalized by consumption) declining slightly through next year’s first half. This is conditional on a continued reduction in high-cost lepidolite and petalite mineral concentrate production. If that happens, the present spot price (US$10-11/kg VAT inclusive lithium carbonate) should see a modest recovery.

This view is perhaps shared by Ganfeng Lithium which recently locked $180 million of its Pilbara Minerals equity within a collar option, a near-term price-neutral derivative trade, signalling it doesn’t expect further deterioration.

Production increases

The largest individual contributors to supply next year will be Liontown Resources’ Kathleen Valley mine in Western Australia and Ganfeng’s Goulamina mine in Mali, while incumbent Tier 1 producers (Talison’s Greenbushes and SQM’s [NYSE: SQM] Atacama) are expanding at meaningful volumes. Though not our base case expectation, should conditions remain subdued, a major Australian spodumene operation could go into care and maintenance in 2025. By our numbers, Mineral Resources’ Wodgina mine could be the first to go, balancing the market by 55,000 tonnes LCE, although management appear keen to avoid this given the

opportunity cost incurred exercising this option during the last cycle. Liontown’s Kathleen Valley will undoubtedly face pressure during ramp up and is at a real risk of faltering if prices remained depressed beyond 2025. That said, with a revitalized mine plan, a fresh capital structure, deep pocketed stakeholder support and potential state tax holidays, Kathleen Valley should emerge from the market slump.

Swing supply to dampen any rally

We also note a generous proportion of swing capacity has or will be sidelined, theoretically capping any price rallies. Idled capacity in Australia includes Finniss, Mt. Cattlin, Ngungaju, Bald Hill and Wodgina Train 3. In China there is vast lepidolite capacity, while Zimbabwe offers capacity at Sabi Star, Bikita and Arcadia.

As we have observed in past cycles, restart economics typically require a sustained period of supportive prices. In the current market, this is realistically above US$15-20/ kg (US$15,000 to US$20,000 per tonne) lithium carbonate.

In our view, by the time prices are consistently at these levels, sufficient structural deficits will have emerged, effectively nullifying the price dampening effects of restarts.

In summary, we see the lithium market in 2025 continuing to adjust supply through cuts, delays to project development, stockpiling and other measures, while strong demand brings modest price relief. TNM

Christopher Williams is a lithium analyst with Adamas Intelligence Battery Metals Forecast Service.

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CATL’s booth at auto show in Beijing 2024. ADOBESTOCK/TADA IMAGES

Changing landscape

The AME has developed an Indigenous engagement toolkit in response to the changing regulations. It also created tailored collaboration playbooks with First Nations. These frameworks help explorers work through consultation processes while respecting community goals.

“Projects that engage early and often see better outcomes,” Jutla said.

On the operational front, the province also faces an urgent need to attract and keep skilled workers. With mining activities ramping up globally, B.C. must compete for talent in geoscience, engineering, and technical roles.

Jutla sees technology as a possible solution. AI-driven mineral mapping and non-invasive geo-

> Trump from P1

chemical surveys are efficient. They appeal to younger workers.

“We need to show the next generation that mining is innovative, sustainable, and critical to the energy transition,” he says.

Annual Roundup

The AME is finalizing preparations for the annual Roundup event in Vancouver on Jan. 20-23 themed ‘Securing Our Future.’

The conference will gather geoscientists, investors, Indigenous partners and policymakers.

Critical minerals, regulatory efficiency, Indigenous engagement, and workforce diversity are key topics.

Early bird registration is open, with discounted student rates and $50 all-access passes available for the final day. Visit https:// roundup.amebc.ca TNM

> AMEX from P14

mal environmental impact,” Victor Cantore, Amex president and CEO, said in a release.

While Amex stock rose 25¢ to $1.40 in early trading on the news, it closed at $1.17, down 3¢ on the day. At press time, the $158-million market cap company traded at $1.17 in a 12-month range of $1.05 to $2.08.

The study is a “good start,” Pierre Vaillancourt, a mining analyst at Haywood Securities, wrote in a note to clients the following day. He said that although the economics are “respectable,” they are below Haywood’s estimates.

“There’s more work to do for the Perron project to reach critical mass and demonstrate potential for a long-lived mine,” he wrote. “The onus is now on Amex to deliver on drilling, which we believe could lead to a meaningful increase to the

resource and improved economic study in 2025.”

The study follows the first significant resource for Perron, released in September.

Cantore noted the study was based on data collected as of the end of June. Drilling outside of the defined resource has since returned high-grade results, he said.

“This successful additional drilling demonstrates the continuation of mineralization and the upside potential for further resource and mine life additions in the future as we progress exploration.”

Amex is planning a mechanized underground mine complemented by open-pit production to feed a 1,700-tonne-per-day operation. An underground method of longitudinal longhole stoping with cement rockfill is to be used. Construction is expected to take 18 months and employ 250 people, excluding con-

How key metals may fare under Trump

By Colin McClelland and Alisha Hiyate

Trump’s win on Nov. 5 propelled equities, the US dollar and bitcoin, as investors anticipate tax cuts and less regulation that could goose economic growth – even as threatened tariffs could stymie it.

Here’s a look at how about some key metals could do under a second Trump term.

Gold Gold fell in the days after Trump’s election, but his presidency is likely to be positive for the precious metal in the medium term, according to John Reade, chief market strategist for the World Gold Council.

The potential for higher inflation, tax cuts and larger budget deficits alongside concerns over U.S. dollar weaponization (using the currency as a foreign policy tool through sanctions and access to dollar-based trade and financial networks) could drive increased gold demand, he said during a webinar hosted by BMO Capital Markets just after the election.

“It wouldn’t have mattered who’d won. We weren’t going to see the deficit come under control. The risks are probably that they will be higher under Trump, with the tax cuts that will probably follow in the near term,” Reade said. “Gold’s appeal as a hedge against debt and economic uncertainty is likely to persist, even as investor sentiment responds to changing fiscal and monetary policies.”

Gold sank about 7% to US$2,550 per oz. a week after the U.S. vote, but recovered to close to US$2,700 at press time.

Global geopolitics, with wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, and concerns about an economic slowdown are positive for gold bar and coin sales, according to the council. Lower U.S. interest rates, concerns over the country’s fiscal deficit and high stock prices should help flows into exchange traded funds (ETFs), it said.

But an orderly U.S. political transition, economic

so everybody that’s in the business knows that high risk needs high reward.”

In Canada, the federal government’s sent contradictory signals on investment, with the capital gains tax hike this year working counter to its plans to boost critical minerals supply chain and manufacturing, announced in late 2022.

“They’re ‘rah rah’ on critical min-

stimulus in China, and a strong U.S. dollar could work against the case.

Global stats show large outflows from gold ETFs since the election, according to Bloomberg News. Physical gold ETF holdings dropped 601,000 oz. from Nov. 10 to Nov. 17, and are now down 3% compared with this point last year.

Copper Copper’s taken a 9% dive since the U.S. vote and was about US$4.03 per lb. at press time in late November.

Tariffs targeting China would slow growth in the country that consumes more than half the world’s copper.

Macquarie analysts noted in November that a 60% tariff on all imports from China, if combined with broad-based tariffs that restrict trade reshuffling, could reduce China’s exports by 8% and its GDP by 2% in 2025.

“Such a slowdown in global growth would clearly be bearish for aggregate commodity price performance, reinforced by its bullish implications for the U.S. dollar,” Marcus Garvey, head of Macquarie commodities strategy based in Singapore wrote in a recent note. “Indeed, though commodities are often seen as an inflation hedge, in this instance – where inflation is neither driven by strong demand growth nor a negative commodity supply shock –they would struggle to live up to that reputation.”

Macquarie notes that the details of any new tariffs remain uncertain, as does the extent to which China will seek to counter the impact of any tariffs by boosting domestic demand.

Uranium

Trump says he wants to make the U.S. a leader in artificial intelligence (AI), which is expected to require enormous amounts of power.

According to International Energy Agency figures, data

erals but at the same time they’re making it harder for investment. At the same time, we’re talking about streamlining the permitting process, but we’re not necessarily doing anything about it.”

While the federal government has pushed hard on the manufacturing side of the critical minerals supply chain, granting billions in funding for new EV plants and bat-

tery manufacturing, it hasn’t done enough to ensure those plants can source supply locally, he said.

Based on Trump’s first term, when he placed duties on aluminum and steel that didn’t initially give Canada special treatment and reopened the North American Free Trade Agreement, Canada can’t necessarily count on special treatment on tariffs.

tractors. A total of 164 permanent jobs are to be created.

Since the Perron gold project will have a production rate of less than 2,000 tonnes per day, it is not subject to an environmental impact assessment under provincial rules. Instead, Amex will apply for ministerial authorization.

However, the process demands hydrological studies, hydrogeological and geochemical analysis, as well as surface water, groundwater and other studies, plus wildlife inventories for certain species.

Perron hosts 4.3 million measured and indicated tonnes grading 4.28 grams gold per tonne for 594,100 oz. There are another 8.6 million inferred tonnes grading 3.8 grams gold for 1 million ounces. Numbers are for the combined open-pit and underground material. TNM

centres, cryptocurrencies and AI consumed 460 terawatt hours of electricity in 2022. It projects that demand will more than double to 1,000 terawatt hours by 2026, just four years later.

Unlike EV enthusiasm and projected demand over the last several years, which has now deflated, taking lithium prices with it, Patricia Mohr, a former vice-president economics and commodity specialist at Scotiabank, says the expected power demands of AI aren’t being overhyped. That means nuclear power, which tech giants Microsoft and Amazon are planning to tap to power their data centres, will be a winner under Trump. So will Canada’s uranium sector, which is the world’s second largest.

“The interest in the nuclear industry and in uranium has broad bipartisan support in the U.S. Congress,” Mohr noted.

Battery metals

Most analysts don’t see Trump repealing President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) as he’s promised, but he’s seen as likely to remove its incentives for electric vehicles. Mohr says such moves will slow EV adoption in the U.S.

“However, the adoption in the United States so far has been quite slow already, and so I don’t really think his policy will have that much impact,” she said.

Analysts with Benchmark Intelligence note that the IRA has attracted over US$110 billion into the EV and battery sectors, with Republican states benefiting the most. Trump has also expressed support for domestic mining of critical minerals to reduce dependence on China, so his anti-EV stance may not be overly negative for EV metals.

-- With files from Frik Els

“I’d like to think we have guaranteed co-operation, since they’re our biggest neighbour and 35 of the states in the U.S., their principal customer is Canada,” Mariage said. “But let’s not forget what happened in Trump 1.0.”

With potentially radical changes coming to the U.S., mining powerhouse Canada might have to step up its game to hold onto that rep-

utation.

“There’s going to be some pretty bold moves in the U.S. for the extractive industry that will attract investment,” Mariage says. “If we don’t do the same, then people are going to be looking south of the border for investments instead of north of the border.” TNM

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THE NORTHERN MINER’S

GOLD AND SILVER GIVEAWAY WINNERS!

VANCOUVER, BC

Jon is an investor relations and capital markets professional, leading investor engagement and marketing initiatives for Inventa Capital companies. Currently also serving as the Vice President of Corporate Development at Targa Exploration, Jon brings expertise in corporate strategy, financial market communications, stakeholder relations, and business development. Originally from Brisbane, Australia, and now based in Vancouver, Canada, Jon combines global perspective with industry knowledge to drive growth and connect companies with strategic investment opportunities.

Kate is a seasoned marketing communications professional with over 20 years of experience across the mining, architecture, and aerospace industries.

For the past decade, she has been with Ausenco, where she currently serves as Senior Marketing Manager for North America, leading strategic marketing initiatives that elevate brand awareness.

She loves how the team at Ausenco is always pushing boundaries, keeping each day dynamic and rewarding.

Kevin brings over 40 years of experience in exploration. As Director of Business Development at Quantec Geoscience, they’ve spent 30 years driving growth and advancing geophysical technologies.

A 1983 graduate of the Cambrian Geology Technology Program, Kevin blends technical expertise with a focus on business development. Their career spans exploration, resource evaluation, and geophysics, positioning them as a leader in the field.

Passionate about innovation, Kevin Blackshaw is committed to advancing geophysics and supporting clients in achieving exploration success.

1ST PLACE: JON WARD

2ND PLACE: KATE STEPHENS VANCOUVER, BC

3RD PLACE: KEVIN BLACKSHAW BRADFORD ON