Mini Guide: Jumpers To Follow 2023-2024

Welcome PAUL FERGUSON

WILL we see him in a novice chase in the coming weeks, or will Constitution Hill remain over hurdles in a bid to win back-to-back Champion Hurdles? That is the burning question ahead of the 20232024 season and is one that I look at in detail in the Top-Class Performers section of this, the 17th edition of Jumpers To Follow

That section also allows me to look last year’s exciting novice hurdle pairing of Marine Nationale and Impaire et Passe, whilst the opening section of the book is – as ever – Leading Prospects, where I highlight the 40 horses who I believe should be followed in the months ahead. Many of these will be graduating from bumpers into the novice hurdle division and I have focused on quite a few handicappers this year, either handicap hurdlers or horses who are likely to be starting their chasing careers in novice handicap company. Such races are often quite competitive and as a result, can offer value from a betting perspective

One of this year’s 40 has yet to race under Rules, whilst a whole host of fellow Point-to-Point Graduates feature elsewhere in the publication. Other regular sections, such as Across The Sea, News From France, and Big-Race Trends return, with the latter looking at a dozen races in the same format as the Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide

Breeding Angles was a new addition last year and is back again, with several of these sections slightly larger than in previous years. The BHA have made several changes to this season’s programme (highlighted within the book) and with the Tolworth Novices’ Hurdle moving from Sandown to Aintree, that race has been replaced by a trials day handicap, within the aforementioned Big-Race Trends section.

A View From The Saddle is another permanent fixture and I am delighted to welcome Harry Cobden to the fray Stable-jockey to champion trainer Paul Nicholls, the pair have an enviable

team of horses to look forward to in the months ahead. Thanks to Harry and also to Sean Bowen, Brian Hughes, Jonjo O’Neill Jnr, Nick Scholfield and Harry Skelton for once again providing excellent content.

Talking about trainers who appear to have strong teams, Gary Moore looks to have assembled an exciting squad for this season, whilst the merger of Lucinda Russell and Michael Scudamore looks to be a positive move Russell won her second Grand National in April and I don’t remember her having a better bunch of horses to go to war with from her Scottish base. Her exciting team of youngsters include Giovinco, who is the horse who features on the cover of this year’s publication.

This year’s Pundits’ Selections is made up of horses to follow from Alex Hammond, Ross Millar, Jodie Standing, Matt Tombs, Kate Tracey and Sam Turner Thanks to all six and to all at Weatherbys – in particular Len Peacock – for making the publication look the way it does

That is also partly down to the fantastic images, which are provided – in the main – by John Grossick and Mark Cranham, whilst the Irish photographs are courtesy of Healys and the stunning image of Si Elegant – taken at Christian Williams’ stable – is the work of the excellent Megan Dent

Thank you to our sponsors Fitzdares and to their ambassador Cornelius Lysaght for writing this year’s Foreword And, thanks to each and every one of you for purchasing a copy Your continued support is genuinely greatly appreciated.

That just leaves me to wish you all an enjoyable 2023-2024 campaign Hopefully, the book whets the appetite for what lies ahead and can be used as a reference point throughout the coming months and beyond.

Be lucky, Paul.

Foreword CORNELIUS LYSAGHT

THE feast-day of St Patrick is probably not the greatest day on which to be having to batten down the hatches against the distinct possibility of another spectacular payout on an Irish banker at the Cheltenham Festival, but that’s what was happening at Fitzdares HQ in 2023

March 17: Gold Cup day, but, even more significantly in the trading room at the world’s finest bookmaker, also the afternoon of the Triumph Hurdle

Practically everyone, it seemed, had been convinced for months that Lossiemouth, the French-bred, grey winner of two of her three races for Willie Mullins, on which Paul Townend would do the steering in the silks of Susannah Ricci and her husband Rich, was pretty much home and hosed in the Juveniles’ feature, and a considerable percentage of ‘practically everyone’ had been getting stuck in.

Although the filly had announced her arrival on the scene with an emphatic success in a Grade 3 juvenile hurdle at Fairyhouse in December – as second favourite, ridden by Danny Mullins and against a hotpot stablemate in Zarak The Brave – the word had actually been out for several weeks, after in fact Paul Ferguson’s Jumpers To Follow 2022-2023 was released by Weatherbys.

Noting Lossiemouth’s striking success at Auteuil on debut and subsequent transfer to Closutton to run in the Ricci silks, Paul put her straight into his 40 Leading Prospects, anticipating the combination which had been responsible for Vauban, the previous season’s leading juvenile, had another Triumph Hurdle-winning prospect on their hands.

At Fitzdares, where the National Hunt specialists are always on the lookout for Mullins-trained ‘dark ‘uns’ emerging from France, they were not surprised to see interest growing soon afterwards, and when the accuracy of Paul’s analysis was demonstrated as Lossiemouth turned Leopardstown tables on Gala Marceau – one amongst six other contenders for the trainer in the Cheltenham field – she represented one of the two worse Festival results of the year (after the same stable’s Gaillard Du Mesnil in the National Hunt Chase)

But as pay-outs were totted up, everyone could at least take some comfort from the reflected glory of being responsible for sponsorship of a publication that had once again spotted a big-race winner good and early – and earlier than most – and I know everyone is

a) delighted to be backing it again and b) all ready to renew their study of every information-packed page

This is the 17th edition of Jumpers To Follow, and of all the innovations over the years getting more jockeys involved has been a particularly enjoyable addition as they attempt to disprove that oldest of racing adages that those on top make the worst tipsters

I certainly won’t be missing out on Nick Scholfield’s musings after he suggested last time that Major Dundee, on which he had won at Bangor in December 2021, “could even develop into a Grand National type” which he did do – sort of – when seeing off allcomers in the Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter at a rewarding 12-1.

Nick is joined by colleagues including Brian Hughes, Sean Bowen and – for the first time – Harry Cobden all of three of whom have been demonstrating their intent as regards this season’s championship during a frenetic summer circuit; I have a feeling that we are in for a tremendous tussle between the trio, one that ensures the Fitzdares traders have a beady eye on the title race as well as everything else

Best of luck to Messrs Hughes, Bowen and Cobden in the months ahead, and to you – and thanks again to Paul and all contributors for teeing it all up so well in these pages

LOSSIEMOUTH

Leading PROSPECTS

GIDLEIGH PARK

5yo Walk In The Park – Lindeman (Presenting)

Trainer

Harry Fry Owner

The Eyre Family

Ideal Conditions

2m4f+ on any ground

Career Form Figures

1-

HARRY FRY boasts a fine record in bumpers and of his 21 runners in that sphere during the 2022-2023 season, seven were successful (33% strike rate) Of the septet, four won between 19th March and 13th April, one being Gidleigh Park, who impressed when scoring on debut at Chepstow

The Welsh venue proved to be a good hunting ground for the stable last year, with Fry’s three runners in bumpers at the track all winning. This well-bred son of Walk In The Park ran out a 6-length winner on soft ground, shaping as though he will flourish when faced with a stiffer test of stamina

His dam Lindeman was a bumper and maiden hurdle winner on good ground, so he should cope with quicker conditions and he is a half-brother to St Barts, who was a useful stayer for Philip Hobbs, winning three times up to 2m7½f (twice successful on heavy ground).

Ridden patiently by Jonathan Burke, the five-year-old got closer leaving the back straight and didn’t have to be ridden too vigorously to clear away inside the final quarter-mile. The third had finished runner-up to Champion Bumper third Captain Teague on debut, whilst the runner-up was a winner next time, so the form has a solid feel to it. Likely to be sent straight over hurdles, he should come into his own as he goes up in trip, whilst he might also be best-suited to galloping tracks.

GIOVINCO

6yo Walk In The Park

Trainer

Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore Owner

The Young Ones

Whyalla (Bandari)

Ideal Conditions

2m4f+ on any ground

Career Form Figures

5F/1111-

LUCINDA RUSSELL enjoyed a magnificent season during the 2022-2023 campaign, saddling 71 winners, which included the Cheltenham and Grand National victories of Corach Rambler, as well as big-race wins for Ahoy Senor (Cotswold Chase) and Apple Away (Sefton Novices’ Hurdle).

Just 11 days after Corach Rambler won the National, Russell won a Listed novices’ hurdle at Perth with Giovinco, who had twice justified cramped odds in northern novice contests, successful on good ground at Ayr and heavy ground at Carlisle.

Purchased for £85,000 on the back of three runs in Irish Points, he finished only fifth (tired in the closing stages) on debut and was still in contention when falling at the final fence on second start. Given nine months off, he kept on well to beat Quantum Storm, who twice ran well in bumpers for Gordon Elliott.

Making all against just two rivals, he jumped well and bolted up at Ayr and had little trouble in carrying a 7lbs penalty to victory at Carlisle. The hat-trick was brought up at Perth on what was his first start over 3m, where he travelled supremely well and ran out a most convincing winner.

Rated 143 after just the three starts, Giovinco is completely unexposed as a stayer and given the stable which he comes from, I suspect that he will be sent straight over fences upon his return

Across THE SEA

SLADE STEEL

5yo Telescope – Mariet (Dr Fong)

Trainer Henry de Bromhead Owner Robcour

Optimum Conditions

2m4f+ on easy ground

Career Form Figures

113-

A HIGH-CLASS middle-distance performer when trained by Sir Michael Stoute, Telescope has yet to sire a top National Hunt performer, although it is still early days and in Slade Steel, he looks to have produced a potentially smart novice hurdler.

The winner of a maiden Point (finished strongly to win going away) when trained by Pierce Michael Power, he developed into a smart bumper performer for Henry de Bromhead and Robcour last season

Held up by John Gleeson, he again came from off the pace to score at Punchestown in December, despite not handling the sharp home bend particularly well (on the tighter inner track) He again finished with purpose to beat Captain Cody (won next time before finishing 6th in the Champion Bumper) and Blizzard Of Oz (2nd to Captain Cody next time, before winning at Cork and finishing runner-up in Aintree’s Grade 2)

He returned to Punchestown in late-April, where he finished just under 8 lengths off the highly-promising Ballyburn. On quicker ground, he was ridden similarly and although he relinquished his unbeaten record, it was another sound effort.

Reverting to softer ground is likely to help, whilst stepping up in distance over hurdles – his dam being a winner over 2m4f – is another avenue to explore. He could well make his mark at a decent level over hurdles.

SPILLANE’S TOWER

5yo Walk In The Park – In The Habit (Duke Of Marmalade)

Trainer

James Joseph Mangan Owner

John P McManus

Optimum Conditions

2m+ on any ground

Career Form Figures 5/21U2-

FIFTH in a Cork maiden hurdle in the spring of 2022, Spillane’s Tower returned to action with a very promising run, beaten just a head by Imagine, who finished fifth in the Martin Pipe at Cheltenham off a mark of 139

Upped in trip by three furlongs, the five-year-old got off the mark at the third attempt, keeping on really well between the final two flights, to win by 2¾ lengths at Naas, on what was the nicest ground that he had encountered to that point.

Having gotten no further than the first flight on handicap debut at Cork, he took his chance in a novice hurdle at the Punchestown Festival, where he beat all bar the equally-promising Monbeg Park. The winner is considerably more experienced than Jimmy Mangan’s son of Walk In The Park, who finished 11 lengths clear of the third.

Upped 4lbs to a mark of 130 (I.H.R.B. Rating), Spillane’s Tower looks more than capable of landing a nice handicap hurdle, with further improvement likely forthcoming as he goes back up in distance. He also has the option of switching to fences and given that he has only had the five career starts – four if you don’t count the first-flight unseat – he has the potential to take another big step forward this winter

Around THE YARDS

Henry Daly

BLENKINSOP

FLOURISHED in his second season as a novice hurdler, winning four times in handicap company, starting at Ludlow (2m5f, good) off a lowlymark of 104 Wins at Southwell (2m4½f, soft) and Exeter (2m5½f, good-to-soft) followed, before he completed the four-timer in better company at Newbury (2m4½f, soft), where he stayed on well to score off 123. A non-runner at Cheltenham on trials day, he had 108 days off before finishing mid-division in the Grade 1 Sefton Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree, fading between the final two flights. A halfbrother to the same connections’ Fortescue, he should make up into a nice staying novice chaser

BOWENSPARK

A SMART bumper performer last term, he won on good ground at Uttoxeter (had several subsequent winners in behind) and under a penalty on soft ground at Warwick, where he gave 7lbs to Katate Dori, who also won next time. Masaccio was back in third on that occasion and they would meet twice more before the season ended. Alan King’s runner finished runner-up in a Listed event at Newbury, in which Bowenspark finished only fourth, but he turned the form back around at Aintree, where he ran a big race to finish fourth behind Florida Dreams. There wasn’t too much pace in the Newbury contest and he probably appreciated the stronger gallop at Aintree, where he sat up with the speed throughout. After losing his position early in the home straight, the son of Walk In The Park finished very strongly and shapes as though he will appreciate a stiffer test once sent hurdling

HILLCREST

A HIGH-CLASS novice hurdler the season before last, the Grade 2 winner was forced to miss the whole of last season through injury and it is very much hoped that he makes a return this winter A huge, good-looking son of Stowaway, he won four times from six starts over hurdles and could make up into a very smart chaser, provided he remains sound. His size probably doesn’t help in that regard, but there is no denying that he is blessed with a huge amount of natural ability

MOON HUNTER

ANOTHER for the staying novice chase division, he won his first two starts over hurdles last season – at Wetherby (2m3½f, good) and Doncaster (2m3½f, good) – and probably found the ground completely against him in Warwick’s Grade 2 Leamington Novices’ Hurdle He bounced back to form on better ground at Doncaster, where he finished runner-up under a double-penalty, before finishing down the field in a competitive handicap at Aintree. A winning Pointer for Philip Rowley, a sound surface would seem important to the six-year-old, who should certainly progress beyond his current mark (129).

MOON HUNTER

A View FROM THE SADDLE

SEAN BOWEN

HARRY COBDEN

BRIAN HUGHES

JONJO O'NEIL JNR

NICK SCHOLFIELD

HARRY SKELTON

INDEEVAR BLEU Olly Murphy

AS impressive a bumper winner as I have ever ridden, he is one to be excited about I sat on him the day before the race for the very first time and he was very relaxed, which is the Blue Bresil in him, as they all seem very chilled He actually didn’t do everything right in the race either, as he was quite keen, but showed a serious turn of foot I was extremely impressed and schooled him before his summer break; he jumps very well

INTHEWATERSIDE Paul Nicholls

A HORSE who I have yet to ride in a race, I’ve sat on him at home and he’s another lovely horse to go hurdling with. I finished third in the race which he won at Sandown and he was unbelievably good that day. A big, strong, beautiful black horse, he looks like he could the ‘real deal’ and is another who I am really excited about.

DINO BELLAGIO Donald McCain

I DIDN’T know a lot about him until winning on him under a penalty at Doncaster, as Peter (Kavanagh) rode him first time and also at Cheltenham when his saddle slipped. At Doncaster they went a fair gallop, so it was a good performance from a four-year-old and I would be prepared to put a line through his Aintree run, as it was a rough race and he had endured a long season for a horse of his age We have already schooled him and he jumps fantastically well, so he would be one of the novice hurdlers that we would be most looking forward to

SEAN BOWEN

HARRY COBDEN

LAND GENIE Jonjo O’Neill

IT took a bit of time for the penny to drop in a Huntingdon bumper, but he won well when it did and although he has a lot to live up – being a half-brother to Constitution Hill – hopefully, he will develop into a nice horse. Quite green throughout the race, he is probably going to be more of a stayer in time and will go straight over hurdles He is a horse who I am particularly looking forward to this season

BULLETS HILL Ella Pickard

HE won two bumpers, which is no mean feat and I rode him to win the second of those at Carlisle, when he beat Bertie’s Ballet, who reversed the form when he disappointed at Kelso. There were excuses for that, I’ve schooled him over hurdles and he jumps very well and he is a big, scopey individual, who should continue to improve. A horse with a lot of untapped potential, he should do well for Ella, who trained Getaround to win three novice hurdles a few years ago

L’EAU DU SUD Dan Skelton

RAN well in three handicap hurdles last season, travelling quite well through his races, but was just a bit weak in the finish. He is only five and going chasing this season, I think that he could end up as one of our better novices. A horse with a lot of class, fences should be the making of him and something like the Kingmaker could be right up his street.

JONJO O’NEILL JNR

NICK SCHOLFIELD

HARRY SKELTON

Point-to-Point GRADUATES

CAPTAIN BELLAMY

NATIVEHILL Nicky Henderson

ONLY sixth on debut last October (not particularly strong form), he returned in the spring to win a five-year-old maiden at Loughanmore, justifying favouritism for Colin McKeever and Derek O’Connor Ridden patiently/confidently, he drew upsides at the final fence and prevailed by 1½ lengths, after seeing the race out really well By Flemensfirth, he is a halfbrother to plenty of winners, including the top-class Bellshill, who won five Grade 1s Bought for £260,000 by Ian Ferguson, he will carry the colours of Ronnie Bartlett and is now in training with Nicky Henderson It could be that he comes into his own over 2m4f and beyond as a novice hurdler this season

OAK GROVE Fergal O'Brien

FOURTH behind the exciting filly Break My Soul on debut, this Soldier Of Fortune four-year-old won at the second attempt, before being bought for £250,000 by Fergal O’Brien. He will carry the silks of Chris Giles and boasts a nice pedigree, being out of a full-sister to the top-class race mare Voler La Vedette. He came up well at the last and prevailed by a neck from Tommys Law, who was purchased by Lucinda Russell at Aintree. He had earlier finished 18 lengths behind Mossy Fen Park

QUEBECOIS Paul Nicholls

IT ISN’T unusual for a beaten horse to cost a similar price to a winner at the sales, although despite finishing runner-up, this No Risk At All chestnut cost considerably more than the horse who beat him (£190,000 more to be precise) when they went

through the Cheltenham Festival sale in March. To two out, he travelled like a dream and looked to be going much the best at the time, so add that to his very smart page – a half-brother to several winners, including 2012 Albert Bartlett winner, Brindisi Breeze – and Max McNeill was forced to pay £320,000 for the exciting youngster Given how he travelled, he looks to possess plenty of natural pace, so should be quick enough to win a bumper for Paul Nicholls, should the champion trainer opt to take that route. The winner Queensbury Boy shouldn’t be overlooked and was purchased by Jerry McGrath, whilst the third Magical King is now with Stuart Edmunds and was actually declared to run in a Bangor-on-Dee bumper in April, only for the ground to dry out too much on the day.

ROMEO COOLIO Gordon Elliott

WINNER of a small-field maiden in March, he jumped well when winning with tons in hand at Belclare, in a race which has gone the way of Ballyoisin, Topofthegame and Farouk d’Alene in recent years. Those in behind didn’t really do anything for the form, but the son of Kayf Tara – who hails from the family of threetime Listed winning mare Cap Soleil (she was 3-3 in bumpers, incidentally) – looked in a different league to the opposition and won in a canter He will carry the black and white silks of KTDA Racing and I would imagine, will start off in a bumper in the autumn It will be interesting to see if his new trainer considers him for Down Royal’s early-season fixture, as he often unleashes one of his more exciting horses at that meeting Interestingly, Eddie O’Leary (Gigginstown House Stud) paid €265,000 at the Derby sale in late-June, to secure his full-brother

ROMEO COOLIO

Top-Class PERFORMERS

HURDLERS (2m)

THIS time last year, the key question in the 2m division was whether or not Constitution Hill could improve into open company and reproduce his spectacular performance from the previous season’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Nicky Henderson’s latest stable-star answered that emphatically, with a stunning performance in Newcastle’s Fighting Fifth Hurdle, before beating stable-mate – and former Champion Hurdle winner – Epatante by even further in the Christmas Hurdle

His victory at Newcastle was breath-taking, making all and dishing out a comprehensive beating to his rivals, in a manner rarely seen at the top level. Sent off 4-11 to win the Champion Hurdle, he duly beat the best of the Irish with consummate ease – scoring by 9 lengths, despite being eased down – and his second season under Rules ended with success over 2m4f in the Aintree Hurdle

Visually, perhaps not as impressive, the six-yearold again made his own running and was in complete control throughout. Shaken up in the closing strides, he was never going to be ridden as aggressively on his first start over an extra half-mile, yet still won with tons in hand. It was a more mature performance.

Unbeaten in seven runs over hurdles – six of which being Grade 1s – and now officially rated 175, the question being asked this year is will he remain over hurdles or will his connections take the bold move to send him chasing? The answer will not only determine the strength of this division, but also have a direct impact on the 2m novice chase division, with connections of other horses likely to decide which route to take, depending on where the brilliant son of Blue Bresil goes

Henderson has stated that he will be schooled in the autumn, but has also stressed that he would only like to go chasing if he genuinely believes that Constitution Hill will stay 3m and develop into a Gold Cup contender in time. At this stage, he looks too quick to be a Gold Cup horse, although he could just be a complete freak, who is able to deal with whatever is thrown at him. If he does go chasing, I would expect him to be campaigned over 2m – 2m4f this season, with the Arkle – a race which Henderson has won for a record seven times and four times since 2012 – appealing as the obvious spring target, before being tried over further in his second season over fences

Whilst it would be fantastic to see him embark on a novice chase campaign, personally, I still feel that it is much more likely that he will be campaigned in a similar vein to last season. Henderson has won the Champion Hurdle for a record nine times and at this stage, Constitution Hill looks capable of emulating

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and possibly surpassing – his three-time winner, See You Then (successful in 1985, 1986 and 1987). If the decision were solely down to the trainer, I’m fairly sure that this is the path down which he would be headed and if he were mine, I think I would be more tempted to win the Fighting Fifth (£64,710 to the winner) and Christmas Hurdle (£74,035) en route to Cheltenham and Aintree again, rather than contesting a beginners’ chase for much less Of course, Michael Buckley doesn’t need the money as much as yours truly, but you get my thought process Plus, there is now the option of running in the International Hurdle – formerly the Bula – which has been moved to trials day (from the December meeting) and would fit in nicely ahead of the Champion Hurdle

Should he remain over hurdles, the domestic challenge to him is virtually nil. There is no other British-trained runner shorter than 50-1 in the antepost market for the Champion Hurdle, so he is likely to have it all his own way ahead of Cheltenham, unless Willie Mullins sends one over to take him on at Newcastle or Kempton. As short as 4-9 in places to defend his crown (best price 4-5, at the time of writing), he is trading at prices ranging from 7-4 to 7-2 for the Arkle

So, what of the Irish challenge? State Man chased him home in March, but won four Grade 1s on home soil and whilst he has the size to take to fences himself, I would be surprised if he went down that route, as he still looks the one to beat in Ireland Himself still a six-year-old, he has a little more experience than Constitution Hill and will likely be campaigned in a similar fashion to last year, with the Morgiana Hurdle a likely starting point. Having won over 2m3½f as a novice, the Hatton’s Grace would be another option and he is a high-class hurdler in his own right, although for his connections, it is unfortunate that he is around at the same time as Constitution Hill

Last year’s leading novices Marine Nationale and Impaire et Passe are both unbeaten, unexposed and capable of climbing the hurdling ladder However, both have the option of going chasing and I suspect that route will be taken, should the reigning champion remain over hurdles. The former has won two bumpers and all three starts over hurdles, showing a fine turn of foot to beat Facile Vega in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. Both the runner-up and the fourth, Inthepocket, advertised that form at Punchestown and Aintree respectively, whilst Fennor Cross (11th) was a handicap winner at the Grand National meeting.

Whilst he would appear to have the class to make an impact at the top level over hurdles, trainer

Barry Connell hinted at a novice chase campaign directly after his Supreme win and having initially insinuated that he would look to avoid Constitution Hill, stated in August that he would likely head down that route no matter what Currently favourite in the ante-post market for the Arkle Trophy, Marine Nationale looks to have the size and scope for fences Wherever he goes, he remains hugely exciting and 2m is his trip

That final sentence also applies to the year younger Impaire et Passe, who won the Ballymore 24 hours later. Like Marine Nationale, he was making it 3-3 over hurdles at Cheltenham, where he travelled like a dream and had far too much pace for the opposition Runner-up Gaelic Warrior ran out an impressive winner at Punchestown, where Impaire et Passe was a little more workmanlike in maintaining his 100% record Strong inside the final furlong, he drew clear and actually beat stablemate Champ Kiely (3rd) by further than he did in the Ballymore, despite appearing to have to work harder on this occasion.

It should be remembered that the son of Diamond Boy is still only five and it isn’t easy for a horse of that age group to win a Ballymore, let

alone back it up again relatively quickly. He was the first five-year-old winner in a decade and during the past 17 years, only three more five-year-olds landed the 2m5f contest Those were Mikael d’Haguenet, Peddlers Cross and The New One, which goes to show the calibre of horse required to win at such a tender age Peddlers Cross won in similar (efficient) style at Aintree after his Ballymore win and The New One was beaten, albeit having stepped up into open company to contest the Aintree Hurdle That pair developed into top-class 2m hurdlers and if allowed the opportunity, there is every chance that Impaire et Passe could do likewise

He definitely has the pace to drop back to the minimum trip and appears to have the ability to reach the top. However, again the looming presence of Constitution Hill must play a huge part in the decision-making process and with Willie Mullins having State Man to rely on in the top 2m hurdles, it could be that Impaire et Passe goes chasing and looks to provide his connections with back-to-back wins in the Arkle. He is actually a shorter price to win the Turners Novices’ Chase and is clear second-favourite in the betting for the Champion Hurdle.

Big-Race TRENDS

BRAVEMANSGAME IS LIKELY TO DEFEND HIS KING GEORGE CROWN ON BOXING DAY

PADDY POWER GOLD CUP HANDICAP CHASE

Cheltenham (Old Course) –

2m4f 44y (Premier Handicap)

OVERVIEW

THE Paddy Power Gold Cup is the first major handicap of the National Hunt season, with Cheltenham’s three-day Open fixture signifying the start of the season for many. In a race which tends to favour a lightly-raced and improving young chaser, it can be used as a springboard to bigger and better things, with Exotic Dancer and Imperial Commander successful in 2006 and 2008 respectively, before both went on to win Grade 1s. Focus on the unexposed and although it wasn’t the case last year, previous course form is often another positive.

PREP RUN IS A POSITIVE

LAST year’s winner Ga Law became the seventh successive winner to have had a recent run, with all seven having run within 35 days of the race 10 of last year’s 14 runners had run during October or early-November, so clearly it is something that trainers are beginning to think is more significant, although the three runners belonging to Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson all arrived at Cheltenham without having had a run. Perhaps, this is something that these leading yards will look at moving forward, although the former’s two winners – Al Ferof (2012) and Caid du Berlais (2014) – were, effectively, having their first runs of the season I say effectively, as the latter had run in the Galway Plate, but that came 108 days prior to his Paddy Power success.

KEY RACES

RECENT winners Splash Of Ginge and Happy Diva had both contested the Each-Way Extra at bet365 Handicap Chase at Wetherby’s Charlie Hall meeting (formerly a Listed contest until last year) on their previous start, whilst the past two winners both arrived at Cheltenham on the back of having

finished third in the Old Roan Chase at Aintree, just 20 days earlier Both were narrowly beaten in strong renewals of the Grade 2 limited handicap chase, which clearly fits in well, time-wise, with the Paddy Power.

Looking further back, three of the five winners between 2006 and 2010 had finished in the first two of the Colin Parker Memorial Intermediate Chase at Carlisle on their seasonal reappearance, although that race comes just 13 days before the Paddy Power so the turnaround is a quick one.

COURSE FORM

GA LAW lacked course form last year and became just the second winner this century to be successful without having run in a steeplechase at the track previously. 19 of the past 23 winners had already won or placed over fences at Cheltenham, whilst the previous 11 winners (before last year) had either won or placed at the track, be it over fences or over hurdles Strong course form is most definitely a positive

The handicaps on trials day are often strong events and in particular, the Timeform Novices’ Chase, which was won this year by Stage Star, who beat Datsalrightgino under top-weight The

SATURDAY 18TH NOVEMBER 2023

former returned to win the Turners at the festival, whilst the latter ended the campaign with a Grade 2 success at Ayr. Now rated 149, it could be that last year’s winning trainer Jamie Snowden has the Paddy Power in mind for his lightly-raced sevenyear-old, who won at the track as a novice hurdler.

The Paul Nicholls-trained Il Ridoto won the open handicap on trials day and returned to finish sixth in the Plate at the festival He finished fourth (without a prep-run) in this race last year and filled the same spot behind Midnight River in the New Year’s Day Handicap Chase. He was only five when contesting this race last year and horses of that age boast a poor record (more of that shortly), so there is every chance that he could improve upon that this time around

GRADE 1 CLASS

HORSES who had been contesting Graded races have a good record in the Paddy Power and no fewer than 16 winners this century had previously run in a Grade 1 race at some stage, with four of the past 14 winners already having won at the top level. Usually, these Grade 1 appearances will have come in novice company and Ga Law was another to tick this box last year, having contested the previous season’s Henry VIII Novices’ Chase at Sandown Midnight Shadow had also run in a Grade 1 novice chase at the Esher venue the previous season (the Scilly Isles), so pay healthy respect to last year’s novices who appear to be dropping in class

LIGHTLY-RACED CHASERS

THAT leads me on nicely to the fact that second-season – and lightly-raced (in general) –chasers boast a fine record in the Paddy Power. Ga Law very much had the right profile in that regard, with this race being just his seventh start over fences and no fewer than 15 of the past 19 winners had run nine times or less over the larger obstacles Regular readers of my work will know that I am a big advocate of novices entering open handicap company during the second half of the season and this is the follow-on really, in that second-season hurdlers/chasers are very much the starting point when assessing the big early-season handicaps. Such horses clearly have the greater scope to improve and results – over a lengthy period of time – have shown them to come to the fore in races such as this, the Greatwood Hurdle and the Coral Gold Cup (former Hennessy)

AGE

ONLY three of the past 20 winners were aged nine, with no double digit winner since 1975, when the

KEY TRENDS

19 of the past 23 winners had won or placed over fences at Cheltenham

15 of the past 19 winners had run 9 times or less over fences

14 of the past 18 winners were rated between 139-149

The past 7 winners had a prep run

11 of the past 12 winners had won (8) or placed (3) at Cheltenham previously (over hurdles or fences)

16 winners this century had contested a Grade 1 race (4 of the past 14 winners had won a Grade 1)

16 winners this century returned at 10-1 or shorter

16 of the past 20 winners were aged between 6-8

Respect Nigel Twiston-Davies-trained runners

Respect Jonjo O’Neill-trained runners

Only 3 of the past 16 winners carried more than 11-0

Only 2 winners this century had not run in a chase at Cheltenham previously

Only 1 winning 5yo since 1999 (and 2 in total)

No winner older than 9 since 1975

Irish-trained horses are 0-18 during the past 13 years

Nicky Henderson is 0-28 since winning the race in 2003

11-year-old Clear Cut was successful for Maurice Camacho. 16 of the past 20 winners were aged between six and eight, with the sole five-year-old winner since 1999 being Caid du Berlais Only two five-year-olds have been successful in all, with it proving to be a difficult task for such youngsters, given that they don’t receive an allowance from their elders. The aforementioned Il Ridoto and Nassalam were the latest to fall victim of this negative trend. It should be noted that Paul Nicholls, trainer of Caid du Berlais and Il Ridoto, would likely have scored with another five-year-old in 2007, as Granit Jack appeared to be cruising when taking a fatal fall at the penultimate fence. Overall, however, five-year-olds boast a poor record in the race and are best overlooked The same comments apply to those older than nine.

MARKET FORCES

16 WINNERS this century returned at 10-1 or shorter, so the majority of recent winners have been found towards the top end of the market. 14 of the 16 were sent off at single figures, with 11 of those hailing from the top three in the betting. Splash Of Ginge is the only winner during the past 12 years to return at odds greater than 14-1, when successful at 25s some six years ago.

WEIGHTS AND OFFICIAL BHA RATINGS

ONLY three of the past 16 winners carried more than 11-stone, with Ga Law right on the cut-off last year, as he carried exactly 11-0 to victory under Jonathan Burke. Interestingly, three of the past eight winners carried that same weight and so six of the past 12 winners have now carried 11-0 or more, so maybe this is something we need to keep tabs on, as it could be an evolving trend

Since 2005, 11 of the 18 winners were rated in the 140s, whilst a further three winners during this period were successful from an official BHA Rating of 139. Therefore, focus on those rated between 139-149, with only Al Ferof (2012) and Taquin du Seuil (2016) – both previous Grade 1 winners, incidentally – successful from marks in the 150s.

TRAINERS TO NOTE

NIGEL TWISTON-DAVIES was again without representation last year, but has won this race three times in the past 15 years (from 14 runners) and the local trainer also won the Paddy Power back in 1992 with Tipping Tim If the ground came up really soft, perhaps Beauport would be a possible contender for the stable this year

Jonjo O’Neill is another locally-based trainer with a fine record in the race, although he has only saddled one runner in the past six renewals Prior to that, O’Neill had won the race twice in the space of four years and he also won it with Exotic Dancer back in 2006. Respect any horse who represents the Jackdaws Castle team

As already touched upon, Al Ferof and Caid du Berlais have provided champion trainer Paul Nicholls with Paddy Power glory in the past 11 years, although he is now 0-19 since he last won the race He has had plenty of horses finish in the first five during this period, however

Last year’s winning trainer Jamie Snowden has only had four runners in the race and one of those was Present View, who finished a close-up third in 2014. From a small sample of runners, a first and a third reads well for the Lambourn-based trainer.

Martin Pipe won this race on an astonishing eight occasions between 1987 and 2005 (incredibly, he

won it seven times in 10 years between 1996 and 2005), since when his son David Pipe has won it just the once, with Great Endeavour in 2011 Umbrigado finished last of 10 last year, taking Pipe Jnr’s tally to 1-22, but this meeting – in general – is one that the Pond House team tend to target, so pay attention to their runners over the three days

Nicky Henderson won the race with Fondmort in 2003, but has really struggled since and Mister Fisher took his subsequent record to 0-28 when falling last year Henderson tends to get going a little later than many of the other leading UK-based stables – rather like Willie Mullins does in Ireland – and the Winter Carnival, at his local track (Newbury), is usually when he starts to click into gear. That fixture comes a fortnight after the Open meeting at Cheltenham

THE IRISH CHALLENGE

TRANQUIL SEA (2009) was the last Irish-trained winner of the Paddy Power and the record of such horses during the 13 years since now stands at 0-18, following the second placing of French Dynamite in 2022. It isn’t a race that the leading Irish trainers tend to target, but still, the record is a poor one and should, therefore, be treated with caution.

JAMIE SNOWDEN

ROLL OF HONOUR

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