Issuu on Google+

GdpQ Tweet relief: Overcoming social networking anxiety

The Economists Quarterly december 2010

Inflation is back in style!

Ben Bernanke has 600 billion ways to pump up your price level The Bretton Woods are lovely, dark and deep... Black Friday is ‘Economic Spanx’ Q&A with the Relationship Doctor U n ive r s it y o f Ce ntr al F lo r i da College of Business Administration


Message From Dean Thomas L. Keon As I sit and write this message, there are just 32 days left in the year. Where did the time go?

About University of C e n t r a l F lo r i da ( U C F ) The University of Central F lorida is

a public, multi-campus, metropolitan r e s e a r c h u n i v e r s i t y, d e d i c a t e d t o

ser ving its surrounding communities with their diverse and expanding

populations, technological corridors,

and international partners. The mission

of the university is to offer high-quality undergraduate and graduate education, student development, and continuing education; to conduct research and creative activities; and to provide

services that enhance the intellectual,

cultural, environmental, and economic

development of the metropolitan region, address national and international

issues in key areas, establish UCF as a

Like any other year, 2010 has had its fair share of good and bad news. On the positive side, Americans won 37 medals at the Winter Olympics in Vancouver, but on the negative side, we are still fighting wars. There were some “firsts” as well. New Orleans won the Super Bowl for the first time, Kathryn Bigelow became the first female to receive an Oscar for Best Director, and President Obama signed a historic healthcare reform bill. To ensure safety, airline passengers are now being subjected to full body scans or thorough pat-downs at airports throughout the United States. We experienced a rather hostile election year in 2010, and saw the rise of the Tea Party. Many Americans seem to be looking for change and are unhappy with the way our country is headed.

major presence, and contribute to the

I think one of the biggest frustrations in 2010 was that our economy has still not recovered. Many Americans are still out of work and are struggling to pay their bills. Houses are still being foreclosed regularly. When will it end?

A b o u t t h e C o ll e g e o f B u s i n e s s Adm i n i s t r at i o n

As you read this “GdpQ Forecast,” you will get updated information on what to expect in the next year and beyond. As always, Dr. Sean Snaith presents his forecast in an entertaining, yet informative way.

g l o b a l c o m m u n i t y.

The College of Business Administration a d v a n c e s t h e u n i v e r s i t y ’s m i s s i o n

and goals in providing intellectual

leadership through research, teaching, and ser vice. The college is striving

to enhance graduate programs, while

maintaining the strong undergraduate

base. The college delivers research and

quality business education programs at the undergraduate, masters, doctoral,

and executive levels to citizens of the

state of F lorida and to select clientele n a t i o n a l l y a n d i n t e r n a t i o n a l l y.

Happy New Year to everyone and I look forward to addressing you in 2011!

n o e K . L s a m o h T Thomas L. Keon Sincerely,

Dean


Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida

Fo r eca s t fo r t h e N ati o n Forecast 2010 - 2013 December 2010 Report

Published quarterly by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, College of Business Administration, University of Central Florida Copyright Š 2010 Institute for Economic Competitiveness. All rights reserved.

Publications of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness are made possible by the following staff: Dr. Sean Snaith, Director Elaine Vogt, Administrative Assistant Cecilia Chirinos, Researcher Jessica Fears, Researcher Alexandra Betrone-Harpst, Researcher This forecast was prepared based upon assumptions reflecting the Institute for Economic Competitiveness’ judgments as of the date it bears. Actual results could vary materially from the forecast. Neither the Institute for Economic Competitiveness nor the University of Central Florida shall be held responsible as a consequence of any such variance. Unless approved by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, the publication or distribution of this forecast and the preparation, publication or distribution of any excerpts from this forecast are prohibited.


Hi g h li g hts o f th e 4Q 201 0 U. S . FOR ECA ST In this Issue of GdpQ: • Inflation is back in style and Ben Bernanke has 600 billion ways to pump up your price level. Instead of fighting inflation, the Fed is trying to stoke it. • The U.S. economy continues to add momentum in the second half of 2010. Real GDP growth accelerates from just 1.7% in the 2nd quarter and to 2.2% in the 4th quarter.

H I GHL I GHTS

• Another Black Friday has come and gone and has again provided us with some economic Spanx, smoothing over unsightly problems and giving the appearance of a healthy consumer. • The expansion of real GDP in the economy during 2010 will be 2.7% versus a year ago and will slow to 2.1% in 2011 as consumers still struggle with ravaged balance sheets, housing headwinds and a labor market that just will not heal. • The U.S. Dollar will oscillate vis-à-vis major trading partners, ending 2013 at about the same level it started at in 2010. The crisis in the EU has flared up again, this time in Ireland, offsetting some of the impact of QE2. • The U.S. economy shed in excess of 8.3 million payroll jobs through the end of 2009. Payrolls will not reach their prerecessions levels and those jobs will not be recovered until the 1st quarter of 2014 – more than 3 years from now. • The Bretton Woods are lovely, dark and deep… In the wake of the Fed’s quantitative easing, calls for another Bretton Woods including a return to the gold standard are misguided. • Continuing foreclosures, fed by persistently high unemployment, continue to weigh on the housing market. Without a labor market recovery, housing cannot fully recover itself. • Unemployment will persist at levels of 9.5% and above throughout 2011, before falling gradually to only 8.4% by the end of 2013. Slow job creation and a growing labor force keep unemployment rates aloft. • Plain vs. Pin Stripes: The suit battle rages on.


U . S . F o r eca s t

Tweet Relief:

Overcoming social networking anxiety

The most recent release (4th quarter 2010) of the Survey of Professional Forecasters by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia suggests that the 42 forecasters (including @SeanSnaith) surveyed for this publication are less than 13% convinced that a decline in real GDP will occur in the 1st quarter of next year. The survey asked panelists two questions: 1) The probability that real GDP will decline in the quarter the survey is administered and 2) The probability of such a decline in each of the following four quarters. The anxious index (a term coined by The New York Times reporter David Leonhard) is the probability of a decline in real GDP in the quarter after a survey is taken. In the survey taken in the 4th quarter of 2010, the index stands at 12.88%, which means that forecasters believe there is a 12.88% chance that real GDP will decline in the 1st quarter of 2011, down

from last quarter’s anxious index of 16.81%. This value for the anxious index is the highest since the 3rd quarter of 2009, when the recession was just ending. The forecasters also report just a 10.97% chance that we are currently (as of the 4th quarter of 2010) in a recession. According to the panel, the probability that we will fall back into recession is hovering around 13% through the end of 2011, which implies the possibility of a double dip recession is not completely out of the question in the minds of the panelists. The graph below plots the historical values of the anxious index and gray bars indicate periods of recession. The current levels of the anxious index and its sharp decline from the start of 2009 indicate the recession is over. The level of the anxious index is consistent with the recovery continuing in the U.S. economy.

Figure 1. The Anxious Index Probability of Decline in Real GDP in the Following Quarter Quarterly, 1968:Q4 to 2010:Q4 100 90 80

60 50 40 30 20 10 0

1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Probability (percent)

70

Survey Date

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

5


U . S . F o r eca s t

Inflation is back in style: Ben Bernanke has 600 billion ways to pump up your price level The Fed has undertaken a second round of Quantitative Easing. This time the Fed is pledging to purchase $600 billion worth of U.S. Treasury bonds by mid-2011. This round is considerably smaller than the first when the Fed purchased a variety of assets, including mortgage-backed securities during the financial crisis, and the Fed’s balance sheet exploded from around $800 billion to over $2.2 trillion. The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet is important not only because of the assets it purchases, but because of its key liabilities: currency in circulation and bank reserves. Economists call these two items the monetary base or high-powered money because changes in the monetary base have a multiplied effect on the supply of money in the economy. One of the main motivations for this policy action is to boost inflation and inflationary expectations. That sounds unusual, since most often a central bank finds itself on the other side of the inflation fighttrying to contain rising inflation and prevent it from getting out of control. Inflation is a problem in a market-based economy where prices are the essential messengers between buyers and sellers and ultimately determine how the economy’s scarce resources should be allocated. High and variable inflation distorts these signals and leads to inefficient resource allocation. Thus, the Fed seeks to keep inflation in a range around 2%, to minimize these types of distortions. Deflation can be a pernicious force in the economy in and of itself. When prices are falling, people are hesitant to make purchases, (why not wait until the price falls further?) The decision to delay purchases can then reinforce the deflation by causing prices to fall further. Consumers are hesitant to borrow money since falling prices mean that the dollars they have borrowed will have less purchasing power than the dollars they use to pay back the loan. Think about what falling house prices have done to mortgage holders in the U.S. There is downward pressure on wages, and given the fact that nominal wages tend to be quite rigid against downward adjustments, this more likely translates into rising unemployment. 6

U.S. Forecast | December 2010

When it comes to changes in the price level, the Goldilocks outcome is best: not too hot and not too cold. Let’s hope that in its efforts to heat things up, the Fed doesn’t burn our porridge in the process.

The Bretton Woods are lovely, dark and deep… The Fed’s retro movement, also known as Quantitative Easing 2 (QE2), that demonstrated some nostalgia for the inflation of the 1970’s also drew sharp criticism from many nations around the world. These countries were not offended at the prospect of bell-bottomed trousers also making a comeback, but at what they perceived as the “beggarthy-neighbor” policy action undertaken by the Fed. Beggar-thy-neighbor is a name given to an economic policy that is meant to benefit a nation at the expense of neighboring nations. These policies could include tariffs or other trade barriers or, in this case, the depreciation of the nation’s currency vis-à-vis other currencies. This depreciation makes the exports of the country implementing the policy less expensive to consumers in other countries, and makes imports into the instigating country more expensive to their own consumers. The policy raises exports, lowers imports and thus increases the GDP of the country implementing the policy. For the neighboring countries, the opposite holds true and thus they are made worse off because of the policy. The country makes itself better off at the expense of the other countries – by making a “beggar” out of them. Quantitative Easing 2 was widely anticipated and the U.S. dollar depreciated in anticipation of the Fed’s efforts to increase the rate of inflation in the U.S. The Fed was accused of intentionally devaluing the dollar to increase the competitiveness of U.S. produced goods and services globally. This was not the driving force behind the Fed’s decision to implement QE2, but admittedly, it is not an unpleasant side effect for the U.S. economy. The Fed was widely criticized for these actions and many countries were calling for another international monetary arrangement along the lines of the Bretton Woods agreement that was established in the wake of WWII. This would include a return to a gold standard, the anchor of the Bretton Woods system.


U . S . F o r eca s t This criticism is probably overblown and the call to return to the halcyon days of Bretton Woods is going too far. When a country is in such a fixed exchange rate agreement, monetary policy becomes limited to maintaining the exchange rate parity. It cannot conduct independent monetary policy in the pursuit of price stability and full employment as the Fed’s current mandate indicates. Given the importance of monetary policy in battling this recession and financial crisis, it is unlikely that the Fed would be willing to subjugate monetary policy in this manner. While a gold standard does impose discipline in the conduct of monetary policy by limiting the growth of the money supply according to the amount of gold a country possesses, inflation is less of a concern under such a system. However, the ability to accommodate economic growth that necessitates growth in the money supply is constrained by the amount of gold the central bank possesses. Do we really want to subjugate the technological and productivity gains’ impact on economic growth to the rate at which we can dig a metal out of the ground? Nostalgia can be a dangerous thing. The good old days were not always so good and when they pass through the cheesecloth of time and memory, the bad parts are oftentimes filtered out. Significant imbalances in international accounts are problematic, but the solution should be a forward-looking one and not one excavated from history.

Black Friday is ‘Economic Spanx’ By now, you’ve watched the news coverage. You’ve heard the reports. And maybe you’ve participated in this shoppers’ ritualistic tradition, Black Friday, and its online counterpart, Cyber Monday. Televised images show lines of shoppers camping outside of big-box retailers in their mad desire to be one of the “lucky few” who get to purchase a $200 laptop computer or a $3 toaster. Once the doors open, the shoppers dash to collect their bounty and then triumphantly push their cornucopia of bargains to the checkout lanes to wait in yet another line. Black Friday gets its name as the day when retailers traditionally turn their first profits of the year, i.e. the day retailers go from being “in the red” to being “in the black.”

(I’ve also known several people who’ve worked in retail, and I think their version of Black Friday’s apt naming has more to do with their moods when they head to work to face the bargain-crazed masses the day after Thanksgiving.) But what I really think we should call Black Friday -- and its sales data and related news reports -- is “economic Spanx” for an otherwise imperfect financial reality. For those of you not familiar, Spanx are like the modern-day version of a full-body girdle, for men and women. Like Spanx, Black Friday reports smooth over unsightly and unseemly (financial) figures. The overflowing shopping carts, preliminary sales totals and the smiles of shoppers who have scored big discounts momentarily shift our attention away from unemployment, slow job creation and underwater mortgages. The reports surrounding Black Friday give the false impression that the consumer is back and is spending freely once again. But, as the images of this past weekend fade away and the economic “Spanx” are peeled off, the reality of the consumer’s plight will spill back into plain sight. Unemployment remains near 12 percent in Florida and stands at 9.6 percent nationally. Job creation remains elusive. One in four homeowners nationwide is underwater in his or her mortgage. The rest have lost tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands, of dollars of wealth in the form of evaporated home equity. These figures are even bleaker in Florida. The stock market has rallied from its nadir, but it is still far from its pre-crisis level. According to the Federal Reserve Bank Flow of Funds data, as of the 2nd quarter of 2010 households have lost $12.2 trillion in wealth since the start of the crisis. That is more than 4 trillion toasters! All of this lost wealth and the lagging labor market mean consumer spending will remain subdued as the recovery continues. This holiday shopping season will be better than the last, but don’t get too excited as the final sales tallies start rolling in. As sleek and attractive as the Black Friday data appear on the surface, you now know that the trouble lies with what is beneath.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

7


U . S . F o r eca s t

Q & A with the Relationship Doctor Q: Dear Relationship Doctor: I have noticed that in a recent government jobs report the economy added over 150,000 jobs, but the unemployment rate did not go down. How can more people have jobs but the unemployment rate remain unchanged? Shouldn’t these data be related to one another? Signed, Working Man - Job, WV A: Dear Working Man: Intuitively you might expect that as the economy adds jobs the unemployment rate would go down and vice versa. Most times these measures do move in unison with one another. However, during October in the United States, there were 151,000 jobs added to payrolls but the unemployment rate was unchanged at 9.6%. Often the divergence takes place around turning points in the labor market cycle, both at the bottom, where we are now, and at the top that occurred in the 4th quarter of 2007 where payroll jobs increased by 284,000 jobs and the unemployment rate rose from 4.7% to 5.0% Both measures provide a view on the labor market, albeit from two different angles. The first thing to remember is that the payroll jobs data and the unemployment data come from two separate surveys and differences in the definitions and methodology of these surveys can lead to seeming divergence in their results. The unemployment data come from the household survey and the payroll jobs data from the establishment survey. The Census Bureau on behalf of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) conducts the household survey each month and the BLS, in conjunction with state level agencies, conducts the establishment survey. The household survey is part of the Current Population Survey and thus has a superior set of demographic characteristics about the labor market. The establishment survey, also known as the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey, has detailed information about wages and hours and provides an industry-by-industry view of the labor market.

8

U.S. Forecast | December 2010

Some other differences: The establishment survey counts all wage and salary employees, full and part time, of non-farm establishments. The household survey includes farm workers, domestic workers and the self-employed. Persons with multiple jobs are counted once for each job they hold in the payroll survey, but only once as being employed in the household survey. The household survey counts people on unpaid leaves from a job as being employed, but the payroll survey excludes them if they miss the payroll period covered by the survey. Lastly, as the economy continues to add people to payrolls, people known as discouraged workers will resume their searches. These are workers who have been out of work for an extended period, grew frustrated with the job search, and quit looking for work. Once they quit searching for work, they were no longer counted as part of the labor force in the unemployment data. As they re-enter the labor force, they will put upward pressure on the unemployment rate. This can not only lead to the unemployment rate remaining constant as jobs are added to payrolls, but could lead to rising unemployment rates even as firms add to their payrolls. Pay attention to both surveys, but do not let their differences throw you for a loop. Q: Dear Relationship Doctor: I have been set up on yet another blind dinner date and she is not an economist. What can I do to make it to the second date? Signed, ABD (Another Blind Date) - State College, PA A: Dear ABD: I am glad to see that not much has changed since my days in Happy Valley. Let me give you a few suggestions that could help. First, as you are preparing to order dinner do not take this as the perfect opportunity to discuss menu costs as a source of nominal price stickiness. Second, do not begin to explain how dating is really just another example of a prisoner’s dilemma where the dominant strategy is to treat the other person cruelly and how you would abandon such a strategy just for her - she will not be impressed by your pledge of irrationality. In fact, it may be best not to mention economics at all. Simply say you are studying to become a doctor,


U . S . F o r eca s t which is true. There is a risk here, if things actually do work out and you were perchance to marry this woman, it is awful difficult to explain to your new colleagues in the economics department why you wear a white laboratory coat to the office every day. So I have heard. Best of luck to you, ABD.

GDP Outlook The Economy is Growing Again, but Not Fast Enough to Bring Down the Unemployment Rate

The growth rate of real GDP in the second half of 2010 will pick up from the 1.7% growth in the 2nd quarter of the year and should build momentum, but with growth not likely to reach levels that will help to pull down the unemployment rate by much, if at all. GDP growth could surprise to the upside as the year ends and the fear of a double dip recession is finally laid to rest. The political cycle over the past two years has nearly rivaled the business cycle when it comes to the historical nature of the election’s outcome. The Republican storming of the House of Representatives changes the landscape in Washington, DC dramatically. Gridlock, with perhaps a few exceptions such as an extension of the Bush tax cuts for two years, is now the policy stance du jour. This bowl of gridlock may be the perfect starter dish as far as the private sector is concerned, after having policy change after policy change enacted during the previous two years; gridlock may provide some “breathing room” for the private sector to digest what this plethora of changes might mean to their businesses. From health care reform, to financial regulatory reform, to uncertainty about tax rates, the number of question marks coming out of the nation’s capital left many businesses feeling like deer in the headlights of an oncoming semi-truck. Slowing the legislative convoy of trucks down or even stopping it all together is just the relief businesses need in the near term. In the medium term, moving the stance of policy initiatives from the far left to something more centrist will help the economy grow and address pressing needs in a way that is acceptable to the majority of American voters and businesses.

Economic policy, like most things in life, is best taken in moderation. Elections unfortunately are not miracle cures - if only it were that easy. The economy still bears the wounds of the recession and financial crisis. The housing market continues to languish, fed by a continuing flow of foreclosures, high unemployment and housing finance that has not returned to normal. A tremendous amount of household wealth has been lost and this leaves the consumer crippled and unable to power the recovery as they have so often in the past. In fact, we are forecasting consumption spending growth to be just 1.8% during the first four years after the recession’s end in summer of 2009. The recovery will continue to be gradual, protracted and, as we first predicted in May of 2009, will resemble a gravy boat with its long, tapered spout. While we can be thankful that a double dip is not in the cards, the gravy boat is very different from the gravy train we were riding prior to the recession. C o n s u m e r Spen d in g Like a ravenous bear emerging from a winter’s long hibernation, the consumer typically emerges from a recession with a ravenous appetite to spend. Unleashing pent-up demand with a fury, this spending spree is usually a big component of the economic recovery that follows the recession. This time around, the feast is more like a tea type lunch, the kind that has cucumbers on the little sandwiches – you know the type I mean, fancy but not filling. Where is our appetite? After the longest and deepest recession since the Great Depression, we should be ready for foot long subs, not finger sandwiches. What is suppressing our appetites? I think it is a bad case of nausea that is preventing us from enjoying a consumption feast. The appetite suppression comes from the sick feeling that one gets when they realize that they are underwater on their mortgage. If you are lucky enough to still have the house as a net asset, it is no less sickening to realize that tens, if not hundreds of thousands of dollars in home equity were wiped out by the housing bust. The stock market has recovered some of its losses but still is well below pre-crisis levels. This empty, nauseous feeling comes from the lost wealth in the economy and no economic spanx can smooth over that feeling. The negative wealth effect will weigh down consumption spending for the entire forecast horizon, Institute for Economic Competitiveness

9


U . S . F o r eca s t and probably beyond. Average annual consumption growth for 2010 through 2013 will be just 1.8%. To put this in perspective, the average annual growth of consumption during the period 2003-2007 was 3.0% and for the period 1970-2009 average consumption spending growth was 3.1% The labor market will continue to struggle in 2010 and continue to remain weak in 2011 although the pace of job creation will improve. With unemployment remaining elevated and underemployment higher still, the labor market will not help raise consumption spending, at least not in the next year or two. I n v e s t m en t Nonresidential investment spending will continue to strengthen as the recovery continues. Early in the recovery, investment growth flowed from the inventory cycle, which is playing itself out but will be replaced by growth in other types of investment. We expect that nonresidential investment will grow at an average pace of nearly 7.3% in 2011 through 2013. This rate of investment growth is higher than the average pace of growth during 2004-2007, which was 6.8%. Businesses are sitting on a tremendous amount of retained earnings, and interest rates are at historically low levels and are being pushed lower by QE2. Firms can choose to use their stockpiled profits to make investments and acquisitions, and give up the paltry interest that money sitting in risk free investments would have earned. The explicit cost of borrowing is likely to remain subdued for an extended period. We are expecting that business spending on equipment and software will grow at an annual average rate of 10.6% through 2013. Investment in computers and peripherals will be boosted in the near term by replacement cycles (think Windows 7 and Office 2010) and the fact that these types of investments help firms in their continued battle to grow profits by containing costs. Cost control will still be in the forefront of business strategy given the weak recovery we are now experiencing. This type of investment will experience average growth of 18.7% in 2010 through the end of 2013. The crisis in commercial real estate is weighing down on investment in non-residential structures. We expect growth to continue to decline throughout 2011. As the commercial mortgage crisis continues 10

U.S. Forecast | December 2010

to play itself out, financing will remain difficult to access. Things will begin to resolve themselves, and very modest growth will return in this type of investment in 2012. By the time we get into 2013, growth in this component of investment will be 12.7%. Investment in transportation equipment will grow robustly throughout our forecast horizon, with an average growth rate of 28.8% during 2010-2013. Pent-up demand, low interest rates and idle cash on businesses’ balance sheets will bolster light vehicle sales to grow from current levels of between 11 and 12 million to a level in excess of 16 million in 2013. Residential fixed investment growth has been negative for five straight years including 2010. The gradual recovery, persistently high unemployment and mortgage underwriting difficulty have extended the woes of a floundering housing market. In 2011, things start to turn around as residential fixed investment growth finally turns positive and it will average 17.1% growth 2011-2013. Housing starts bottomed out in 2009 and have hugged that bottom since that time, increasing but just slightly. Inventories of new homes have fallen significantly. We expect starts to accelerate significantly in 2011 and 2012 before hitting nearly 1.4 million in 2013. G o v e r n m en t Spen d in g The crisis in the EU is a reminder of where a lack of fiscal restraint can ultimately lead. Deficit spending is not without its cost. It is easy to ignore that cost when interest rates on treasury bonds are as low as they are today and the rest of the world still seems willing, if not eager, to by our government’s I.O.U.s. The national debt is nearly $13.8 trillion and rising. Trillion-dollar federal budget deficits are not going to go away soon and we are forecasting deficits to stay near that level through 2012. In 2013, we are forecasting the federal budget deficit to be only $757 billion. The national debt at that time will be over $18 trillion! I expect that most of the Bush tax cuts will be extended for two years. The tax cut for the so-called rich will be the main sticking point. It would be nice if things were as simple as taxing this small minority of taxpayers to end our fiscal imbalances, but as wealthy as some of these people are it is not enough to make the huge deficits go away. The battle over this top bracket is essential political theatre and not a serious fiscal debate.


U . S . F o r eca s t The recovery is too weak to allow any of the tax cuts to expire. What should be done two years from now? Let them expire for all income levels and get to work on addressing the real sources of deficit spending. President Obama’s bi-partisan deficit reduction commission has undertaken some of this work. They recently released preliminary proposals to cut nearly 4 trillion dollars in deficits through 2020. Where is the beef in their proposal? Well, it is in some of the sacred cows that the proposal leads to the slaughter. The panel would eliminate the mortgage interest deduction and the child tax credit (do we have the option to send them back? I assumed the tax credit would be in place until adulthood when I made my fertility decisions.) The proposal hikes gasoline taxes as well as the social security retirement age. Nobody wants to do any of these things. Unfortunately, there are no simple options; there is no simple solution. The bi-partisan plan balances the budget. It simplifies the absurdly complex and unwieldy tax code while lowering tax rates for individuals and corporations. It saves social security. What is the most important function of the commission? It provides cover for politicians who do not have the guts to make these choices on their own. Net Exports Trade growth will continue through the end of our 2013 forecast period. The weakening of the U.S. dollar was temporarily interrupted as the Greek sovereign debt crisis unfolded. Then, with the Fed undertaking QE2 the dollar once again began to depreciate in anticipation of this policy. However, it was not long before rumblings of further debt problems in Europe helped boost the dollar again. The seesaw ride for the U.S. dollar is likely to continue and we are forecasting the dollar to finish 2013 at roughly the same level at which it traded at the onset of 2010 versus our major trading partners. In part due to the weakness of the U.S. consumers’ recovery and the relative strength of some of our trading partners’ growth, export growth will outstrip import growth through the end of our forecast horizon. Average export growth in 2010-2013 will be 9.1% and the average growth in imports will be 7.1% over the same period.

The current account deficit which improved in 2007-2009, particularly so after the price of oil collapsed in 2008, will be relatively stable. We expect the balance to average -3.2% of GDP through the end of 2013. The forecast levels of the current account deficit are still significantly smaller than its peak at over $800 billion in 2006. U ne m p l o y m en t Several forecasts ago I characterized the labor market as the ugly scar on the economy left over from the economic and financial trauma that we endured. I stated then that this scar would be both prominent and slow to fade. Unfortunately, this characterization of the labor market has been spot on. Despite the reemergence of job creation, the unemployment rate will be slow to decline. We expect that unemployment will stay above 9.0% until the end of 2012 or the start of 2013. By the end of that year, the unemployment rate will close in on 8.0%. Underemployment (U-6) is an even bigger problem and stands at 17.0% in October, up from our last forecast. This excess capacity in the labor market will get used before many firms are forced to go out and make new payroll hires. As job creation continues, many who dropped out of the labor force will re-enter it, and this will continue to keep the headline unemployment rate (U-3) elevated. The sorry state of the labor market will continue to be an issue that influences the political world. While politicians generally deserve far less credit or blame for the state of the economy than they get, this fact notwithstanding the persistently high unemployment will claim more than a few political casualties. It will be many years before we see the unemployment rate fall back into a range that could be considered consistent with a full employment level of unemployment. We are still forecasting that it will not be until mid-2018 before we see the unemployment rate once again drop below 6.0%.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

11


Automobile and Light Truck Sales December 2010 (Millions Vehicles)

F OR E C A ST f o r t h e na t i o n

Charts

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Auto Sales Light Truck Sales


U . S . F o r eca s t C h a r t s

30-Year Mortgage Rates and Housing Starts 9.0

(Mortgage rates - Left axis, %)

2.5

8.0

2.0

7.0

1.5

6.0

1.0

5.0

0.5

4.0 3.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate Housing Starts - Millions

0.0

Automobile and Light Truck Sales 11.0

(Millions Vehicles)

10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Auto Sales Light Truck Sales

Change in Real Business Inventories 150.0

(Billions of 2000 Dollars)

100.0 50.0 0.0 -50.0 -100.0 -150.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Change in Real Business Inventories Institute for Economic Competitiveness

13


U . S . F o r eca s t C h a r t s

Consumer Prices (% Change Year Ago)

6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 -2.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Consumer Price Index Core Consumer Price Index

Federal Budget Surplus (Billions of Dollars)

500.0 0.0 -500.0 -1000.0 -1500.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Federal Budget Surplus

Real GDP Growth and Federal Funds Rate 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 -2.0 -4.0 -6.0 -8.0

14

(%)

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Quarterly Growth Rate Real GDP Fed Funds Rate

U.S. Forecast | December 2010


U . S . F o r eca s t C h a r t s

Industrial Production 105.0

(2007=100)

100.0 95.0 90.0 85.0 80.0 75.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Industrial Production

Private Fixed Nonresidential Investment 2000.0

(Billions of Dollars)

1800.0 1600.0 1400.0 1200.0 1000.0 800.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Private Fixed Nonresidential Investment

Manufacturing Employment 18.0

(Millions)

17.0 16.0 15.0 14.0 13.0 12.0 11.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Manufacturing Employment Institute for Economic Competitiveness

15


U . S . F o r eca s t C h a r t s

Money Supply

(Annual Growth Rate %)

30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 -10.0

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Annual Growth Rate of M2 Annual Growth Rate of M1

Total Nonfarm Payroll Employment (Millions)

140.0 135.0 130.0 125.0 120.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Total Nonfarm Employment

Oil and Consumer Confidence Oil ($ Per Barrel) - Left Axis

140.0 120.0

110

100.0

100

80.0

90

60.0

80

40.0

70

20.0

60

0.0

16

120

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Price of Oil WTI Consumer Sentiment

U.S. Forecast | December 2010

50


U . S . F o r eca s t C h a r t s

Real Disposable Income and Consumption 8.0

(% Change Year Ago)

6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 -2.0

0 -100 -200 -300 -400 -500 -600 -700 -800

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Disposable Income Consumption

Trade Balance and Real Exchange Rate

1.40 1.30 1.20 1.10 1.00 0.90 0.80

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Trade Balance (Billions $) Left axis U.S. Dollar Real Exchange Rate (2000 = 1.0) Right axis

0.70

Twin Deficits 500.0

(Billions of Dollars)

0.0 -500.0 -1000.0 -1500.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 U.S. Federal Budget Surplus Current Account Institute for Economic Competitiveness

17


U . S . F o r eca s t C h a r t s

Civilian Unemployment Rate 11.0 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0

(%)

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Unemployment Rate

Yield Curve 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0

(%)

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 1-Year T-Bill Yield 5 Year Treasury Bond Yield 25 year Treasury Bond Yield

Federal Funds Rate (%)

7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0

18

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Fed Funds Rate

U.S. Forecast | December 2010


Table 16. U.S. Exports and Imports of Goods and Services History 2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Net Exports Goods & Services

-427.2

-504.1

-618.7

-722.7

-769.3

Current Account

-458.1

-714.0

-520.7

-630.5

-747.6

-802.6

-718.1

Exports -Goods & Services

-668.9

1003.0

1041.0

1180.2

1305.1

1471.1

1661.7

1843.4

Merchandise Balance

F OR E C A ST f o r t h e na t i o n

2007

December 2010

2008

Billions of Dollars -710.5

-475.3

-541.5

-665.6

-783.8

-839.5

-823.2

-834.7

Food, Feed & beverage

49.60

55.03

56.55

58.95

65.98

84.28

108.38

Industrial Supplies Excl Petroleum

153.5

168.3

199.5

227.5

267.3

316.2

386.9

78.9

80.7

89.2

98.4

107.3

121.3

121.4

290.5

293.7

327.6

358.4

404.1

433.0

457.7

38.6

39.9

42.8

45.5

47.6

45.6

43.9

201.5

207.1

238.7

257.0

291.9

314.5

339.8

Consumer Goods, Excl. MVP

84.4

89.9

103.3

115.3

129.1

146.0

161.3

Other Consumer

43.5

39.4

41.0

47.5

50.8

61.3

59.4

302.8

314.2

363.3

399.0

446.7

499.7

548.3

Imports -Goods & Services

1430.2

1545.2

1798.9

2027.8

2240.4

2375.7

2553.8

Merchandise

1193.9

1289.3

1501.7

1708.0

1884.9

2001.6

2148.8

49.7

55.8

62.1

68.1

75.0

81.7

89.0

Petroleum & Products

103.5

133.1

180.5

251.9

302.5

347.6

477.6

Industrial Supplies Excl Petroleum

159.6

175.7

226.4

266.0

291.4

295.7

316.5

Motor Vehicles & Parts

203.8

210.1

228.2

239.5

256.6

256.6

231.2

Capital Goods, Excl. MVP

284.0

296.4

344.5

380.8

420.0

446.0

455.2

75.2

76.5

88.6

93.3

101.4

105.2

100.9

Other

183.3

195.8

231.6

261.7

290.2

306.5

318.9

Consumer Goods, Excl. MVP

310.7

337.7

377.2

411.5

446.1

478.2

484.7

82.7

80.5

82.9

90.3

93.5

95.9

94.5

236.4

255.9

297.3

319.8

355.4

374.0

405.0

Net Exports Goods & Services

-548.8

-604.0

-688.0

-722.7

-729.2

-654.9

-504.1

Exports G & S

1099.2

1116.8

1222.8

1305.1

1422.1

1554.4

1647.7

Imports G & S

1648.0

1720.7

1910.8

2027.8

2151.2

2209.3

2151.8

Exports G & S

5.6

9.0

11.7

10.3

14.0

14.6

0.0

Imports G & S

13.4

8.0

19.1

12.1

5.4

9.1

-2.1

Real Exports G & S

4.2

6.6

7.1

6.8

10.4

10.2

-2.0

Real Imports G & S

9.7

5.4

11.0

5.2

4.2

0.9

-5.4

Motor Vehicles & Parts Capital Goods, Excl. MVP Computer Equipment Other

Services

Food, Feed & Beverage

Computer Equipment

Other Consumer Services

t ab l e s

Billions of Dollars

Billions 2005 Dollar

Exports & Imports % Ch


U . S . F o r eca s t Tab l e s Table 1. Summary of the Long-Term Forecast of the U.S.

Table 1. Annual Summary of the Long-Term Forecast of the U.S.

Gross Domestic Product Final Sales of Domestic Product Total Consumption Durables Nondurables Services Nonresidential Fixed Investment Equipment & Software Information Processing Equipment Computers & Peripherals Communications Equipment Industrial Equipment Transportation Equipment Aircraft Other Equipment Structures Commercial & Health Care Manufacturing Power & Communication Mining & Petroleum Other Residential Fixed Investment Exports Imports Federal Government State & Local Government

Real GDP Nominal GDP

GDP Deflator Consumer Prices Excl. Food & Energy Producer Prices, Finished Goods Employment Cost Index - Total Comp.

2002

2003

2004

History 2005 2006

1.8 1.3 2.7 7.7 2.0 1.9 -7.9 -4.2 -2.7 5.1 -18.6 -6.5 -8.2 -24.4 0.2 -17.7 -15.2 -41.3 -1.0 -26.6 -15.1 5.2 -1.8 3.5 7.3 3.3

2.5 2.4 2.8 6.0 3.7 1.9 1.0 2.6 6.8 8.9 2.6 -0.2 -5.8 -25.2 -3.3 -3.6 -6.1 -6.0 -7.7 14.2 -3.3 8.2 1.6 4.4 6.6 -0.1

3.6 3.2 3.5 6.6 3.2 2.9 6.0 7.7 9.5 11.5 8.9 -2.7 21.0 10.6 29.0 1.1 2.5 5.0 -16.7 16.6 1.4 9.9 9.5 11.0 4.1 -0.2

Composition of Real GDP, Percent Change 3.1 2.7 1.9 0.0 -2.6 3.2 2.6 2.2 0.5 -2.1 3.4 2.9 2.4 -0.3 -1.2 5.2 4.1 4.2 -5.1 -3.5 3.4 2.8 2.0 -1.1 -1.2 3.0 2.7 2.2 0.9 -0.8 6.7 7.9 6.7 0.4 -17.0 8.6 7.5 3.7 -2.4 -15.0 7.3 8.3 8.9 6.2 0.3 11.7 23.3 14.1 13.7 -0.8 1.8 10.8 16.0 3.1 0.5 8.3 8.4 4.0 -4.2 -23.2 13.5 9.2 -4.1 -22.9 -45.1 -10.0 -5.1 30.6 -4.2 -18.0 18.7 7.2 -18.2 -12.2 -36.9 1.5 9.2 14.0 6.2 -20.4 -0.8 6.1 10.0 -3.6 -30.1 17.8 10.3 18.1 25.6 8.0 -2.0 7.9 39.0 11.6 3.0 10.5 14.7 6.2 6.5 -35.0 -18.7 -5.5 9.3 15.2 13.2 6.2 -7.2 -18.7 -24.0 -22.4 6.7 9.0 9.3 6.2 -9.4 6.2 6.1 2.7 -2.6 -13.7 1.3 2.1 1.3 7.2 5.8 -0.2 0.9 1.4 0.3 -0.9

2.8 2.7 1.8 3.6 3.8

26.1 4.6 0.3 72.8 15.6 89.6 16.816 1.710 4.997 5.8 -1.1 -158 -458

31.1 3.6 1.3 73.8 17.2 87.6 16.643 1.854 5.443 6.0 -0.3 -377 -521

41.5 2.8 2.3 76.2 58.3 95.2 16.867 1.949 5.914 5.5 1.1 -413 -630

56.6 1.6 3.2 78.5 49.8 88.6 16.948 2.073 6.181 5.1 1.7 -319 -748

Federal Funds Rate (%) 3-Month Treasury Bill Rate (%) 1-Year Treasury Note Yield (%) 5-Year Treasury Note Yield (%) 10-Year Treasury Note Yield (%) 25-Year Treasury Note Yield (%) 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate (%) S&P 500 Stock Index (% change) Exchange Rate, Major Trading Partners (% change (negative = depreciation))

1.67 1.61 2.00 3.82 4.61 5.42 6.54 996 -16.7 1.266 -1.5

1.13 1.01 1.24 2.97 4.02 5.05 5.82 964 -1.3 1.111 -12.3

1.35 1.36 1.89 3.43 4.27 5.12 5.84 1131 18.0 1.020 -8.1

Personal Income (Bil. of $) (% change) Disposable Income (Bil. of $) (% change) Real Disposable Income (Bil. Of 2005 $) (% change) Saving Rate (%) After-Tax Profits (Billions of $) (% change)

9060 2.0 8010 4.7 8637 3.3 3.5 573 13.4

9378 3.5 8378 4.6 8854 2.5 3.5 660 15.5

9937 6.0 8889 6.1 9155 3.4 3.4 923 40.2

U.S. Forecast | December 2010

2009

2010

Forecast 2011 2012

2013

2.7 1.2 1.7 6.6 2.6 0.6 5.6 15.0 13.0 27.6 12.5 6.7 47.3 -7.9 9.5 -13.5 -25.5 -31.2 -8.7 27.3 -26.2 -4.2 11.5 13.2 4.7 -1.3

2.1 2.4 2.3 6.5 2.0 1.7 5.9 10.6 7.4 14.5 11.1 15.1 23.4 2.8 18.2 -6.6 -5.8 -19.8 -5.2 -2.9 -3.9 3.7 8.1 5.4 0.0 0.1

2.8 2.8 1.5 4.1 0.9 1.2 9.2 8.1 6.4 16.7 5.6 4.7 21.9 8.3 16.1 12.7 22.2 31.3 -0.5 6.8 11.5 16.1 8.6 4.6 -2.8 1.1

2.8 2.8 2.0 7.1 1.4 1.4 7.0 8.5 6.2 16.0 9.2 9.2 22.5 15.7 24.8 2.3 7.4 -1.0 -0.6 -1.3 7.1 31.5 8.1 5.0 -3.5 -0.1

13232.3 13516.1 13889.8 14278.0 14644.4 15153.7 15793.1 16498.4

Prices & Wages, Percent Change, Annual Rate 3.3 3.3 2.9 2.2 0.9 3.4 3.2 2.9 3.8 -0.3 2.1 2.5 2.3 2.3 1.7 4.9 3.0 3.9 6.4 -2.5 3.1 2.9 3.1 2.9 1.5

2.2 2.3 1.5 3.2 3.8

20

2008

Billions of Dollars 11553.0 11840.7 12263.8 12638.4 12976.3 13228.9 13228.9 12880.6 10642.3 11142.2 11867.8 12638.4 13398.9 14061.8 14369.1 14119.1

1.6 1.6 2.3 -1.3 3.5

Oil - WTI ($ per barrel) Productivity (% change) Industrial Production (% change) Factory Operating Rate Nonfarm Inven. Chg. (Bil. of 2005 $) Consumer Sentiment Index Light Vehicle Sales (Million units) Housing Starts (Million units) Existing House Sales (Million units) Unemployment Rate (%) Payroll Employment (% change) Federal Surplus (Unified, FY, bil. $) Current Account Balance (Bil. $)

2007

1.0 1.7 1.0 4.3 1.9

1.3 1.6 1.3 1.5 2.0

1.4 1.9 1.7 1.8 2.0

1.6 2.0 1.9 1.6 2.3

61.8 3.5 -9.2 67.2 -116.9 66.3 10.402 0.554 4.567 9.3 -4.3 -1416 -378

79.4 3.5 5.3 71.6 65.7 70.8 11.427 0.604 4.202 9.7 -0.5 -1294 -495

85.7 1.0 2.8 73.6 35.8 71.9 12.598 0.764 4.118 9.7 0.9 -1331 -486

91.8 0.7 3.4 75.5 40.2 73.1 14.5 1.2 4.6 9.2 1.8 -972.3 -494.6

95.4 0.9 3.9 77.2 46.9 74.9 15.9 1.4 4.9 8.6 1.8 -757.8 -525.3

3.21 3.13 3.62 4.05 4.29 4.56 5.86 1207 6.8 1.000 -1.8

Financial Markets, NSA 4.96 5.02 1.93 0.16 4.72 4.38 1.40 0.15 4.93 4.52 1.82 0.47 4.75 4.43 2.80 2.19 4.79 4.63 3.67 3.26 4.28 4.07 4.87 4.84 6.42 6.33 6.04 5.04 1311 1477 1221 947 8.6 12.8 -17.2 -18.9 0.985 0.930 0.888 0.926 -1.4 -5.6 -4.1 4.8

0.17 0.14 0.31 1.85 3.14 4.18 4.65 1136 21.3 0.899 -2.7

0.22 0.34 0.51 1.57 2.63 3.70 4.31 1181 4.1 0.867 -3.5

1.7 1.8 2.1 3.0 3.7 4.4 5.3 1221.1 3.4 0.9 2.7

3.2 3.2 3.4 4.1 4.5 4.9 6.0 1366.3 11.9 0.9 0.4

10486 5.5 9277 4.4 9277 1.3 1.4 1228 33.1

11268 7.5 9916 6.9 9651 4.0 2.4 1349 10.1

Incomes 11912 12391 5.7 4.0 10424 10953 5.1 5.1 10043 9874 2.3 1.7 2.1 4.1 1293 1025 -4.2 -20.6

12502 2.7 11351 2.9 10209 1.1 5.6 1405 33.8

12892 3.1 11654 2.7 10341 1.3 4.8 1307 -7.0

13396.3 3.9 11960.8 2.6 10449.4 1.0 3.9 1368.12 4.69017

13975.0 4.3 12296.2 2.8 10559.8 1.1 3.4 1370.99 0.21922

66.1 0.9 2.2 79.1 63.2 87.3 16.504 1.812 5.712 4.6 1.8 -248 -803

Other Measures 72.2 99.8 1.6 1.0 2.7 -3.3 79.6 75.0 28.7 -39.0 85.6 63.8 16.089 13.195 1.342 0.900 4.959 4.337 4.6 5.8 1.1 -0.6 -162 -455 -718 -669

12175 -1.7 11035 0.8 10100 0.6 5.9 1062 13.5


U . S . F o r eca s t Tab l e s Table 2. Real Gross Domestic Product

Table 2. Real Gross Domestic Product History 2002

2003

2004

2005

Forecast 2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Real GDP Billions 2005 $ Gross Domestic Product Final Sales of Domestic Product Total Consumption

11553.0 11840.7 12263.8 12638.4 12976.3 13228.9 13228.9 12880.6

13232.3 13516.1 13889.8 14278.0

11543.5 11824.8 12198.2 12588.4 12917.1 13200.0 13268.1 12992.8

13149.7 13469.9 13841.0 14222.1

8021.9

8247.6

8532.7

8819.0

9073.5

9289.5

9265.0

9153.9

9306.4

9518.6

9705.6

9847.5

930.0

986.1

1051.0

1105.5

1150.4

1198.5

1136.4

1094.6

1166.7

1242.4

1330.6

1384.7

Nondurables

1780.2

1845.6

1904.6

1968.4

2023.6

2064.3

2041.2

2017.4

2069.9

2110.9

2139.9

2158.8

Services

5318.1

5418.4

5577.6

5745.1

5899.7

6028.3

6082.3

6032.7

6069.6

6175.2

6259.3

6336.9

1180.2

1191.0

1263.0

1347.3

1453.9

1552.0

1556.6

1290.8

1362.6

1441.8

1542.8

1684.3

830.3

851.4

917.3

995.6

1069.6

1109.0

1082.0

916.3

1054.3

1164.7

1264.1

1366.3

379.3

405.0

443.1

475.3

514.8

560.5

594.7

595.8

673.0

722.7

767.6

816.7

Computers & Peripherals

58.2

63.4

70.6

78.9

97.1

110.7

125.5

123.6

157.1

179.7

208.4

243.2

Communications Equipment

73.7

75.4

81.7

83.2

92.2

106.7

109.5

109.8

123.4

137.1

149.7

158.0

Industrial Equipment

151.9

151.6

147.4

159.6

172.9

179.9

172.2

132.2

140.6

161.6

176.4

184.7

Transportation Equipment

141.6

132.9

161.1

181.7

198.2

190.2

147.2

76.4

112.6

138.2

169.6

206.4

31.6

22.6

25.1

22.0

20.6

26.8

25.7

20.7

19.1

19.5

22.6

24.5

32.7

31.7

40.8

48.2

51.6

42.1

36.8

23.1

25.3

30.0

37.3

43.3

356.6

343.0

346.7

351.8

384.0

438.2

464.2

369.6

318.5

297.4

304.0

342.8

142.8

133.8

137.1

135.9

144.2

158.6

152.8

107.0

79.3

74.5

80.0

97.8

Manufacturing

26.2

24.3

25.5

29.9

33.0

39.0

48.5

52.2

35.9

28.7

28.3

37.2

Power & Communication

60.5

55.7

46.2

45.2

48.7

67.8

74.0

75.8

69.1

65.5

65.1

64.7

Mining & Petroleum

52.6

60.0

69.9

77.1

88.3

93.6

99.7

64.3

80.4

77.0

75.7

80.8

Other

68.9

66.5

67.4

63.7

69.6

80.3

90.4

73.5

54.0

51.8

55.5

61.9

613.9

664.3

729.5

775.0

718.2

584.2

444.2

342.7

328.0

338.7

445.6

515.5

Exports

1099.2

1116.8

1222.8

1305.1

1422.1

1554.4

1647.7

1490.7

1662.0

1796.4

1941.2

2108.3

Imports

1648.0

1720.7

1910.8

2027.8

2151.2

2209.3

2151.8

1853.8

2097.9

2209.0

2320.3

2427.1

779.5

831.1

865.0

876.3

894.9

906.1

971.8

1027.6

1075.6

1075.5

1037.6

1008.0

1500.7

1499.7

1497.1

1493.6

1507.2

1528.1

1532.6

1518.8

1498.8

1500.9

1499.8

1515.7

Durables

Nonresidential Fixed Investment Equipment & Software Information Processing Equipment

Aircraft Other Equipment Structures Commercial & Health

Residential Fixed Investment

Federal Government State & Local Government

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

21


U . S . F o r eca s t Tab l e s Table 3. Quarterly Summary of the Forecast of the U.S.

Table 3. Quarterly Summary of the Forecast of the U.S. 2009Q4

Gross Domestic Product Final Sales of Domestic Product Total Consumption Durables Nondurables Services Nonresidential Fixed Investment Equipment & Software Information Processing Equipment Computers & Peripherals Communications Equipment Industrial Equipment Transportation Equipment Aircraft Other Equipment Structures Commercial & Health Care Manufacturing Power & Communication Mining & Petroleum Other Residential Fixed Investment Exports Imports Federal Government State & Local Government

Real GDP Nominal GDP

GDP Deflator Consumer Prices Excl. Food & Energy Producer Prices, Finished Goods Employment Cost Index - Total Comp.

Oil - WTI ($ per barrel) Productivity (% change) Industrial Production (% change) Factory Operating Rate Nonfarm Inven. Chg. (Bil. of 2005 $) Consumer Sentiment Index Light Vehicle Sales (Million units) Housing Starts (Million units) Existing House Sales (Million units) Unemployment Rate (%) Payroll Employment (% change) Federal Surplus (NIPA Bil. $) Current Account Balance (Bil. $)

2010Q1

2010Q2

2010Q3

2010Q4

5.0 2.1 0.9 -1.1 3.1 0.5 -1.4 14.6 22.4 80.7 20.3 -3.0 15.4 -47.1 -16.4 -29.2 -34.8 -41.8 -19.3 -10.4 -37.5 -0.8 24.4 4.9 0.0 -2.3

3.7 1.1 1.9 8.8 4.2 0.1 7.8 20.4 8.4 4.9 2.9 0.2 130.0 -4.3 12.2 -17.8 -28.5 -43.8 -33.7 93.4 -36.0 -12.3 11.4 11.2 1.9 -3.8

1.7 0.9 2.2 6.8 1.9 1.6 17.2 24.8 15.3 45.2 10.1 44.2 71.0 9.4 13.7 -0.5 -18.0 -18.3 -7.1 58.2 -16.0 25.6 9.1 33.5 9.1 0.6

2.0 0.6 2.6 6.1 1.3 2.4 9.8 12.0 5.7 -4.5 14.9 7.3 41.0 40.3 53.2 3.9 -18.6 -33.7 10.6 59.1 -11.7 -29.1 5.0 17.4 8.8 -0.2

2.2 4.1 2.4 6.9 4.5 1.0 5.3 11.4 12.6 37.3 13.2 21.5 2.4 -41.0 -13.4 -9.7 -9.0 -26.3 -9.1 -4.5 -9.2 -13.5 8.6 -6.9 -2.3 0.8

###### ######

13139 14446

13195 14579

13261 14730

13335 14822

-0.2 2.6 1.5 6.2 1.5

1.0 1.5 0.0 8.5 2.6

1.9 -0.7 0.9 -0.4 1.8

2.3 1.5 1.2 0.8 1.8

0.2 2.9 1.1 7.4 1.9

2011Q1

2011Q2

2011Q3

2011Q4

2012Q1

2012Q2

2012Q3

Composition of Real GDP, Percent Change, Annual Rate 2.0 1.9 2.4 3.2 2.6 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.0 2.6 3.4 2.6 2.8 2.4 2.2 1.9 2.4 2.8 1.4 1.9 1.6 4.7 5.9 8.6 10.4 7.5 5.8 3.7 1.3 1.1 1.7 1.9 0.8 1.5 1.4 2.1 1.5 1.6 1.9 0.7 1.4 1.3 5.2 8.1 8.2 8.0 3.4 4.2 5.1 9.2 8.5 8.8 7.1 9.4 8.6 8.8 2.4 8.7 6.5 6.5 6.2 5.8 5.4 -5.5 28.7 14.4 14.1 14.8 16.1 16.9 8.0 10.1 11.8 12.3 11.7 5.3 5.2 15.1 10.2 11.1 9.1 10.1 8.1 8.7 38.7 8.8 21.5 9.5 30.6 26.6 29.1 13.6 14.9 8.3 15.3 18.3 22.3 12.0 16.2 24.0 47.0 10.4 32.7 22.7 19.5 -11.7 -7.7 -5.8 -0.6 3.8 7.0 5.2 -7.6 -2.0 7.0 15.5 8.8 1.0 1.5 -18.3 -14.0 -12.6 -9.0 -10.0 10.7 15.5 -10.3 -6.0 -4.2 0.3 2.2 0.3 -2.1 -17.6 -15.8 -19.6 -15.6 4.3 15.6 9.6 -3.0 1.9 3.8 5.2 6.0 12.0 9.5 20.7 21.0 31.2 38.1 42.6 27.3 4.5 8.6 8.2 9.1 7.6 8.3 7.9 7.5 2.3 6.9 6.7 2.3 4.3 6.4 6.5 -2.7 -1.5 0.1 -3.4 -5.0 -4.7 -3.6 0.6 0.2 -1.1 -0.8 -0.1 0.4 0.8

13402 14966

13465 15072

Billions of Dollars 13546 13651 13740 15204 15373 15541

13841 15705

Prices & Wages, Percent Change, Annual Rate 1.8 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.8 1.3 1.4 1.1 1.7 1.9 2.1 1.9 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.8 -0.3 -1.3 1.7 2.8 2.2 1.0 2.4 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.2 1.9

2012Q4

2013Q1

2013Q2

2013Q3

2013Q4

3.0 3.0 1.9 5.2 1.4 1.6 8.9 8.0 5.5 15.8 5.0 5.1 23.7 11.0 16.9 11.9 21.2 37.2 -1.5 6.4 10.0 16.7 7.9 4.1 -3.3 1.0

2.6 2.7 1.1 5.3 0.2 0.7 10.4 8.6 6.5 16.8 5.7 3.6 26.2 5.6 18.1 16.8 32.4 50.3 -2.7 9.7 10.5 13.1 9.3 4.1 -2.7 1.2

2.8 2.9 1.4 4.3 0.6 1.3 9.4 7.4 6.9 17.2 5.6 2.7 16.0 4.5 13.9 16.1 28.8 33.5 1.0 9.5 12.5 12.4 9.0 4.2 -2.3 1.2

2.8 2.6 1.2 0.9 1.0 1.4 8.8 7.7 7.4 17.1 6.4 3.5 15.4 6.2 11.1 12.5 25.9 18.4 1.7 0.0 15.3 8.4 9.1 4.4 -2.1 1.2

2.6 2.5 1.3 0.5 1.0 1.6 8.3 7.5 7.3 16.4 6.4 5.2 12.7 6.7 8.8 10.9 25.5 19.2 5.7 -9.9 12.8 6.0 8.6 4.5 -1.8 1.3

13937 15872

14041 16054

14132 16234

14232 16410

14329 16586

14420 16764

1.5 2.0 1.8 2.2 2.1

1.6 2.1 1.8 2.4 2.1

1.9 2.1 1.9 1.5 2.3

1.5 1.9 1.9 0.7 2.4

1.6 1.9 1.9 1.1 2.3

1.7 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.5

Other Key Measures 76.0 78.8 77.9 76.1 84.9 83.5 84.1 86.8 88.5 90.4 91.3 92.3 93.2 94.2 95.1 95.9 96.6 6.0 3.9 -1.8 1.9 1.7 1.2 0.7 0.7 1.1 0.4 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.7 1.1 1.2 1.2 7.0 7.1 7.0 4.8 0.2 2.5 2.5 3.3 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.0 3.9 4.0 72.5 72.9 73.3 74.0 74.3 74.6 75.2 75.8 76.2 76.6 77.0 77.5 77.8 68.8 70.0 71.6 72.2 -43.0 36.5 61.0 109.9 55.3 41.0 39.2 34.7 28.2 29.6 34.5 48.1 48.4 44.5 42.7 49.1 51.3 70.2 73.9 73.9 68.3 67.0 70.1 71.8 72.0 73.8 73.2 73.2 73.0 73.1 73.0 73.9 75.8 76.8 10.774 10.980 11.337 11.557 11.832 11.999 12.293 12.765 13.334 13.958 14.341 14.611 15.002 15.533 15.916 16.052 16.140 0.565 0.617 0.602 0.589 0.607 0.635 0.702 0.803 0.918 1.048 1.145 1.232 1.275 1.322 1.382 1.426 1.467 5.233 4.497 4.887 3.650 3.775 4.074 4.142 4.050 4.205 4.369 4.509 4.790 4.850 4.870 4.862 4.943 5.048 10.0 9.7 9.7 9.6 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.6 9.5 9.4 9.3 9.1 9.0 8.8 8.6 8.5 8.4 1.9 1.7 1.8 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 -1.3 0.2 2.2 -0.2 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.3 -1310 -1314 -1355 -1357 -1334 -1196 -1181 -1116 -1088 -973 -960 -936 -915 -776 -734 -708 -714 -404 -437 -493 -523 -525 -488 -482 -489 -485 -478 -489 -506 -506 -521 -529 -528 -524

Federal Funds Rate (%) 3-Month Treasury Bill Rate (%) 1-Year Treasury Note Yield (%) 5-Year Treasury Note Yield (%) 10-Year Treasury Note Yield (%) 25-Year Treasury Note Yield (%) 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate (%) S&P 500 Stock Index (% change) Exchange Rate, Major Trading Partners (%change (negative = depreciation))

0.12 0.06 0.35 2.30 3.46 4.33 4.90 1089 42.4 0.869 -12.6

0.13 0.11 0.37 2.42 3.72 4.62 5.00 1122 12.6 0.892 11.3

0.19 0.15 0.38 2.25 3.49 4.37 4.91 1135 5.0 0.925 15.6

0.19 0.15 0.27 1.55 2.79 3.86 4.45 1096 -13.0 0.905 -8.5

0.15 0.14 0.23 1.18 2.57 3.88 4.25 1189 38.2 0.873 -13.3

0.11 0.17 0.26 1.24 2.45 3.60 4.15 1161 -9.2 0.863 -4.7

0.11 0.19 0.32 1.36 2.48 3.61 4.18 1176 5.5 0.863 0.2

Financial Markets, NSA 0.19 0.49 0.72 0.34 0.68 0.99 0.51 0.95 1.35 1.63 2.06 2.43 2.60 3.01 3.37 3.68 3.92 4.22 4.28 4.62 5.00 1189 1199 1202 4.4 3.2 1.2 0.868 0.875 0.881 2.2 3.6 2.4

1.31 1.37 1.69 2.69 3.58 4.42 5.19 1207 1.6 0.889 3.8

2.09 2.16 2.40 3.14 3.72 4.45 5.31 1223 5.4 0.895 2.9

2.77 2.81 3.02 3.68 4.02 4.51 5.61 1252 9.9 0.899 1.6

3.17 3.19 3.36 4.03 4.38 4.80 5.94 1299 15.8 0.896 -1.4

3.27 3.24 3.42 4.12 4.50 4.94 6.00 1348 16.1 0.895 -0.1

3.19 3.18 3.38 4.10 4.49 4.93 5.96 1391 13.1 0.894 -0.7

3.10 3.10 3.30 4.05 4.45 4.90 5.92 1427 10.9 0.891 -1.2

Personal Income (Bil. of $) (% change) Disposable Income (Bil. of $) (% change) Real Disposable Income (Bil. of 2005 $) (% change) Saving Rate (%) After-Tax Profits (Billions of $) (% change)

12239 2.5 11122 2.7 10080 0.0 5.6 1229 48.5

12350 3.7 11216 3.4 10113 1.3 5.5 1370 54.1

12474 4.1 11337 4.4 10224 4.4 5.9 1383 3.8

12540 2.1 11380 1.5 10237 0.5 5.5 1452 21.7

12645 3.4 11472 3.3 10264 1.1 5.3 1417 -9.5

12745 3.2 11525 1.9 10274 0.4 5.0 1283 -32.8

12834 2.8 11606 2.8 10319 1.8 5.0 1293 3.3

12934 3.2 11689 2.9 10357 1.5 4.8 1318 8.0

Incomes 13056 13177 3.8 3.8 11797 11787 3.7 -0.3 10412 10360 2.1 -2.0 4.6 3.8 1334 1344 4.8 3.3

13319 4.4 11905 4.0 10423 2.5 3.9 1358 4.1

13468 4.5 12016 3.8 10477 2.1 4.0 1376 5.4

13622 4.7 12135 4.0 10537 2.3 4.1 1394 5.2

13737 3.4 12136 0.0 10490 -1.8 3.3 1362 -8.8

13897 4.7 12226 3.0 10523 1.3 3.3 1363 0.3

14053 4.6 12338 3.7 10575 2.0 3.4 1374 3.4

14213 4.6 12485 4.9 10652 2.9 3.7 1385 3.3

22

U.S. Forecast | December 2010


U . S . F o r eca s t Tab l e s Table 4. Quarterly Gross Domestic Product 2009Q4

Table 4. Quarterly Gross Domestic Product 2010Q1

2010Q2

2010Q3

2010Q4

2011Q1

2011Q2

2011Q3

2011Q4

2012Q1

2012Q2

2012Q3

2012Q4

2013Q1

2013Q2

2013Q3

2013Q4

Real GDP Billions 2005 $ Gross Domestic Product Final Sales of Domestic Product Total Consumption

13019.0 13138.8 13194.9 13260.7 13334.7 13402.4 13465.5 13545.6 13651.0 13740.3 13841.4 13936.8 14040.8 14132.0 14231.6 14328.6 14419.7 13051.1 13085.5 13114.7 13133.2 13265.3 13349.2 13415.3 13501.1 13614.2 13702.1 13798.3 13880.0 13983.6 14078.7 14180.0 14270.5 14359.3 9182.9

9225.4

9275.7

9334.6

9389.8

9441.5

9485.3

9541.1

9606.6

9640.6

9686.1

9724.4

9771.4

9797.7

9833.0

9863.2

9896.0

Durables

1115.1

1138.9

1157.8

1175.2

1194.9

1208.8

1226.1

1251.6

1282.9

1306.3

1324.9

1337.0

1354.1

1371.6

1386.3

1389.5

1391.3

Nondurables

2032.3

2053.5

2063.4

2070.0

2092.8

2099.6

2105.2

2114.2

2124.4

2128.6

2136.3

2143.7

2151.2

2152.2

2155.6

2161.1

2166.4

Services

6028.7

6029.6

6053.4

6090.1

6105.4

6137.8

6161.2

6186.4

6215.5

6226.1

6248.3

6268.9

6293.9

6305.2

6324.9

6346.3

6371.3

1278.3

1302.6

1355.3

1387.2

1405.3

1417.1

1431.9

1449.8

1468.4

1497.3

1527.1

1556.6

1590.1

1630.1

1667.1

1702.8

1737.2

944.7

989.7

1046.0

1076.1

1105.4

1129.9

1153.1

1177.7

1198.1

1225.5

1251.0

1277.6

1302.4

1329.5

1353.4

1378.7

1403.9

Nonresidential Fixed Investment Equipment & Software Information Processing Equipment

632.9

645.7

669.1

678.3

698.7

702.9

717.8

729.2

740.7

751.9

762.6

772.8

783.3

795.7

809.1

823.7

838.3

Computers & Peripherals

142.5

144.2

158.3

156.5

169.4

167.0

177.9

184.0

190.1

196.8

204.3

212.4

220.3

229.1

238.3

247.9

257.5

Communications Equipment

117.3

118.2

121.0

125.3

129.3

131.8

135.0

138.8

142.8

146.8

148.7

150.7

152.5

154.6

156.7

159.2

161.7

128.3

128.4

140.7

143.2

150.3

155.7

159.6

163.8

167.4

171.5

174.9

178.6

180.8

182.4

183.6

185.1

187.5

78.8

97.0

110.9

120.8

121.6

131.9

134.8

141.5

144.7

154.7

164.1

174.9

184.5

195.5

202.9

210.3

216.7

18.8

18.5

19.0

20.6

18.1

18.7

19.3

19.7

20.4

21.3

22.4

23.1

23.7

24.0

24.3

24.6

25.0

Industrial Equipment Transportation Equipment Aircraft Other Equipment

23.0

23.6

24.4

27.1

26.2

27.2

28.7

31.6

32.4

34.8

36.6

38.2

39.8

41.5

42.8

44.0

44.9

335.3

319.3

318.9

321.9

313.8

304.2

298.2

293.9

293.4

296.1

301.1

305.0

313.7

326.1

338.5

348.6

357.8

Commercial & Health

92.3

84.9

80.8

76.7

74.9

73.5

73.1

74.3

77.1

78.7

78.9

79.2

83.1

89.1

94.9

100.6

106.5

Manufacturing

46.1

39.9

37.9

34.2

31.7

30.1

29.0

28.1

27.4

26.7

27.4

28.4

30.7

34.0

36.6

38.2

39.9

Power & Communication

77.1

69.6

68.3

70.0

68.4

66.6

65.5

64.8

64.9

65.2

65.3

65.0

64.7

64.3

64.4

64.7

65.6

Mining & Petroleum

59.0

69.6

78.0

87.6

86.6

82.5

79.0

74.9

71.7

72.5

75.2

76.9

78.1

80.0

81.8

81.8

79.7

Other

63.7

57.0

54.5

52.9

51.6

51.2

51.5

51.9

52.6

53.4

54.9

56.2

57.5

59.0

60.7

62.9

64.9

Structures

341.7

330.7

350.1

321.3

309.9

313.3

328.5

344.5

368.6

399.6

436.7

463.9

482.2

497.3

512.1

522.5

530.2

Exports

Residential Fixed Investment

1573.5

1616.4

1652.1

1672.3

1707.1

1742.6

1777.2

1816.2

1849.7

1887.0

1923.4

1958.4

1995.9

2040.9

2085.5

2131.3

2175.6

Imports

1903.6

1954.8

2101.1

2187.2

2148.4

2160.8

2196.9

2232.7

2245.5

2269.4

2305.0

2341.6

2365.0

2388.9

2413.3

2439.6

2466.7

Federal Government

1043.6

1048.4

1071.5

1094.4

1088.1

1080.8

1076.8

1076.9

1067.6

1053.9

1041.4

1031.9

1023.1

1016.3

1010.3

1005.0

1000.5

State & Local Government

1511.2

1496.8

1499.1

1498.2

1501.0

1503.1

1503.8

1499.8

1496.8

1496.3

1497.7

1500.6

1504.4

1508.7

1513.3

1517.9

1523.0

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

23


U . S . F o r eca s t Tab l e s Table 5. Annual Employment

Table 5. Annual Employment History 2002

2003

2004

2005

Forecast 2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Millions Total Nonfarm Employment

130.340 129.996 131.419 133.694 136.086 137.588 136.777 130.911

130.241 131.470 133.779 136.252

Private Nonfarm

108.831 108.416 109.801 111.890 114.114 115.371 114.272 108.360

107.774 109.307 111.588 113.850

Mining

0.512

Construction

0.503

0.523

0.562

0.620

0.663

0.709

0.650

0.679

0.689

0.667

0.663

6.715

6.736

6.973

7.333

7.692

7.630

7.161

6.036

5.613

5.535

5.665

6.136

Manufacturing

15.257

14.508

14.315

14.225

14.157

13.877

13.401

11.884

11.650

11.832

12.116

12.456

Trade, Transportation and Utilities

25.500

25.287

25.536

25.960

26.275

26.625

26.292

24.949

24.764

24.934

25.549

26.067

4.224

4.184

4.250

4.363

4.469

4.540

4.507

4.234

4.174

4.300

4.539

4.720

Transportation & Warehousing Financial Activities

7.848

7.976

8.031

8.153

8.328

8.300

8.143

7.758

7.596

7.688

7.811

7.838

Education & Health

16.201

16.588

16.950

17.370

17.824

18.321

18.840

19.187

19.551

19.954

20.267

20.395

Professional & Business Services

15.975

15.985

16.388

16.952

17.570

17.944

17.735

16.575

16.690

17.251

17.932

18.615

3.394

3.189

3.117

3.061

3.038

3.031

2.984

2.807

2.723

2.740

2.811

2.855

Leisure & Hospitality

11.986

12.175

12.492

12.813

13.108

13.425

13.437

13.100

13.109

13.192

13.274

13.330

Government

21.509

21.580

21.618

21.804

21.971

22.218

22.504

22.551

22.466

22.163

22.191

22.402

2.766

2.760

2.731

2.732

2.733

2.734

2.762

2.827

2.958

2.824

2.770

2.729

18.744

18.820

18.887

19.073

19.239

19.484

19.743

19.724

19.508

19.338

19.422

19.673

Information

Federal State & Local

Growth Rates Total Nonfarm Employment

-1.13

-0.26

1.09

1.73

1.79

1.10

-0.59

-4.29

-0.50

0.94

1.76

1.85

Private Nonfarm

-1.69

-0.38

1.28

1.90

1.99

1.10

-0.95

-5.17

-0.52

1.42

2.09

2.03

Mining

-4.01

-0.23

5.16

9.36

10.01

5.76

6.57

-12.64

13.16

-4.75

-1.01

-1.50

Construction

-1.32

1.53

4.31

5.81

2.38

-1.94

-9.36

-15.92

-1.87

-1.71

5.41

8.85

Manufacturing

-5.35

-4.46

-0.05

-0.84

-1.07

-2.08

-5.45

-10.86

1.14

2.26

2.37

2.70

Trade, Transportation and Utilities

-1.07

-0.57

1.52

1.64

1.12

1.16

-3.34

-4.36

0.73

1.07

2.64

1.78

Transportation & Warehousing

-0.89

-1.00

2.58

2.48

2.54

0.96

-2.68

-5.75

0.63

4.74

4.94

3.71

Financial Activities

0.71

1.25

0.95

2.13

1.35

-1.29

-2.48

-4.61

-1.06

1.89

1.61

0.14

Education & Health

3.17

2.12

2.36

2.51

2.64

2.89

2.56

1.68

1.99

2.15

0.98

0.71

Professional & Business Services

-1.27

1.08

2.99

3.74

3.07

1.61

-3.67

-5.17

2.32

4.29

3.73

3.99

Information

-6.12

-5.02

-2.04

-1.07

-0.96

-0.02

-3.05

-5.80

-1.71

2.06

1.96

1.42

Leisure & Hospitality

0.93

1.59

2.59

2.15

2.83

2.11

-1.65

-2.06

1.26

-0.03

1.01

0.15

Government

1.21

-0.14

0.62

0.81

1.02

1.17

1.02

-0.26

-1.10

-0.49

0.59

1.07

Federal

0.83

-1.55

-0.37

0.34

-0.23

0.53

1.18

2.15

4.25

-1.07

-2.11

-1.25

State & Local

1.27

0.08

0.77

0.88

1.20

1.26

1.00

-0.59

-1.40

-0.40

0.98

1.40

24

U.S. Forecast | December 2010


U . S . F o r eca s t Tab l e s Table 6. Quarterly Employment

Table 6. Quarterly Employment

2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4

Employment (Millions) Total Nonfarm Employment

129.6 129.7 130.4 130.3 130.5 130.8 131.2 131.6 132.2 132.8 133.5 134.1 134.7 135.3 135.9 136.6 137.2

Private Nonfarm

107.1 107.2 107.6 107.9 108.3 108.6 109.0 109.5 110.1 110.7 111.3 111.9 112.5 113.0 113.5 114.2 114.7

Mining

0.6

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

Construction

5.7

5.6

5.6

5.6

5.6

5.6

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.6

5.7

5.8

5.9

6.1

6.2

6.3

Manufacturing

11.6

11.6

11.7

11.7

11.7

11.7

11.8

11.9

11.9

12.0

12.1

12.2

12.2

12.3

12.4

12.5

12.6

Trade, Transportation and Utilities

24.7

24.7

24.7

24.8

24.8

24.9

24.8

24.9

25.1

25.3

25.5

25.6

25.8

25.9

26.0

26.1

26.2

Transportation & Warehousing

4.2

4.1

4.2

4.2

4.2

4.2

4.3

4.3

4.4

4.5

4.5

4.6

4.6

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.8

Financial Activities

7.7

7.6

7.6

7.6

7.6

7.6

7.7

7.7

7.7

7.8

7.8

7.8

7.8

7.8

7.8

7.8

7.9

Education & Health

19.3

19.4

19.5

19.6

19.7

19.8

19.9

20.0

20.1

20.2

20.3

20.3

20.3

20.3

20.4

20.4

20.5

Professional & Business Services

16.4

16.5

16.7

16.7

16.8

16.9

17.2

17.4

17.5

17.7

17.8

18.0

18.2

18.3

18.5

18.7

18.9

Information

2.8

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.9

2.9

2.9

Leisure & Hospitality

13.0

13.0

13.1

13.1

13.2

13.2

13.2

13.2

13.2

13.2

13.3

13.3

13.3

13.3

13.3

13.3

13.3

Government

22.5

22.5

22.8

22.4

22.2

22.2

22.2

22.1

22.1

22.1

22.2

22.2

22.3

22.3

22.4

22.4

22.5

Federal State & Local

2.8

2.9

3.2

2.9

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.7

19.7

19.6

19.6

19.5

19.4

19.4

19.4

19.3

19.3

19.3

19.4

19.4

19.5

19.6

19.6

19.7

19.8

Growth Rates Total Nonfarm Employment

-1.35

0.18

2.14

-0.16

0.60

0.83

1.24

1.29

1.79

1.81

1.92

1.91

1.90

1.70

1.76

2.00

1.83

Private Nonfarm

-1.62

0.30

1.57

1.14

1.31

1.08

1.61

1.78

2.13

2.14

2.22

2.12

2.10

1.85

1.90

2.19

1.96

11.95 15.28 14.12

8.79

-0.12

-9.08

-6.29

-4.01

-3.05

-1.65

0.11

0.50

-0.24

-1.31

-1.84

-2.68

-7.97

0.17

0.04

-3.71

-1.86

-0.89

-0.46

1.37

5.36

6.21

8.19

8.75

8.64

8.53

8.36

Mining Construction

-2.73 -10.72

0.05

Manufacturing

-4.47

0.65

2.88

1.02

-0.03

1.32

1.86

3.37

2.41

1.57

3.01

2.16

2.65

3.25

3.31

2.07

2.07

Trade, Transportation and Utilities

-2.24

0.25

0.96

0.71

1.00

0.08

-0.08

1.23

3.00

3.03

2.90

2.39

2.13

1.87

1.70

2.06

1.46

Transportation & Warehousing

-1.86

-2.97

2.21

2.84

0.45

0.83

5.94

6.17

6.01

6.05

5.09

4.70

3.93

3.95

3.38

4.05

3.47

Financial Activities

-1.89

-1.99

-1.18

-1.20

0.15

2.34

3.65

0.89

0.69

2.19

1.50

2.13

0.61

-0.63

-0.78

0.87

1.08

Education & Health

2.03

1.90

2.02

1.84

2.20

1.81

2.15

2.40

2.26

1.49

1.28

0.47

0.66

-0.13

1.19

1.13

0.65

Professional & Business Services

1.55

2.72

2.87

1.38

2.31

2.94

5.42

4.51

4.29

2.95

3.85

4.44

3.70

3.09

3.66

4.56

4.66

Information

-2.57

-3.43

-2.37

-0.29

-0.76

0.22

1.91

2.85

3.26

4.94

0.78

0.33

1.79

2.84

1.29

1.06

0.51

Leisure & Hospitality

-2.25

0.18

1.82

1.69

1.32

0.46

0.22

-0.63

-0.19

1.82

0.75

0.64

0.83

0.75

-0.33

0.03

0.16

Government

-0.05

-0.38

4.95

-6.16

-2.80

-0.39

-0.54

-1.10

0.09

0.17

0.43

0.86

0.90

0.93

1.10

1.07

1.19

6.46 50.61 -28.34 -11.73

-0.53

-1.36

-0.85

-1.55

-2.61

-2.57

-1.73

-1.54

-1.31

-1.31

-1.31

-1.06

-0.37

-0.42

-1.14

0.33

0.58

0.87

1.24

1.25

1.25

1.44

1.41

1.50

Federal State & Local

2.10 -0.36

-1.34

-0.75

-2.11

-1.40

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

25


U . S . F o r eca s t Tab l e s Table 7. Quarterly Implicit Price Deflators (2000=100)

Table 7. Quarterly Implicit Price Deflators (2005=100)

2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4

GDP

109.7 110.0 110.5 111.1 111.2 111.7 111.9 112.2 112.6 113.1 113.5 113.9 114.3 114.9 115.3 115.8 116.3

Consumption

110.3 110.9 110.9 111.2 111.8 112.2 112.5 112.9 113.3 113.8 114.2 114.7 115.2 115.7 116.2 116.7 117.2

Durables

93.6

Motor Vehicles Furniture

93.1

92.8

92.2

91.8

91.6

91.3

91.0

90.8

90.5

90.3

90.1

89.9

89.7

89.6

89.4

89.3

101.3 102.4 103.0 103.6 104.0 104.7 105.1 105.5 105.8 106.1 106.3 106.6 106.8 107.1 107.4 107.7 108.0 96.1

95.3

94.3

93.0

92.2

91.7

91.2

90.9

90.7

90.5

90.4

90.3

90.2

90.1

90.1

90.0

90.0

Other Durables

112.5 111.2 111.6 111.8 112.0 112.2 112.5 112.9 113.2 113.6 114.1 114.5 114.9 115.4 115.9 116.4 116.9

Nondurables

111.7 112.9 111.6 112.3 114.2 114.8 115.1 115.8 116.3 116.9 117.4 117.9 118.5 119.1 119.6 120.2 120.8

Food

113.0 113.5 113.9 114.0 115.0 116.0 116.2 116.3 116.5 116.6 116.7 116.9 117.2 117.6 118.0 118.4 118.9

Clothing & Shoes

98.8

98.5

97.4

98.3

98.5

99.5 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.2 100.2 100.3 100.4 100.5 100.6

Gasoline & Oil

121.2 127.8 117.8 121.1 131.5 130.2 129.4 132.3 134.4 136.7 137.9 139.1 140.6 141.9 143.1 144.2 145.4

Fuel

124.6 133.9 133.3 128.9 136.3 133.8 133.5 135.5 137.4 139.4 140.8 142.1 143.6 144.5 145.4 146.1 146.9

Services

113.1 113.6 114.1 114.4 114.8 115.2 115.6 116.1 116.6 117.2 117.8 118.4 119.0 119.6 120.2 120.8 121.5

Housing

112.4 112.3 112.2 112.4 112.5 112.7 113.0 113.3 113.7 114.2 114.8 115.3 115.9 116.5 117.1 117.7 118.3

Electricity

128.1 127.5 128.7 127.5 127.7 127.3 127.2 127.1 127.6 128.6 129.8 130.7 131.7 132.8 133.6 134.3 135.2

Natural Gas

87.4

92.3

88.6

90.2

87.1

83.9

81.0

81.8

85.8

89.3

90.3

93.6

97.6

99.7

98.5

97.3

98.5

Water & Sewer

126.9 129.2 131.3 132.7 134.5 135.1 135.9 136.9 137.8 138.9 139.9 140.9 141.9 142.9 144.0 145.1 146.2

Telephone

105.8 105.4 105.2 105.4 105.7 105.3 104.9 104.7 104.4 104.2 104.0 103.8 103.5 103.3 103.1 102.8 102.6

Transportation

116.7 117.5 118.3 117.9 118.3 118.7 119.0 119.5 120.1 120.6 121.1 121.6 122.2 122.8 123.3 123.8 124.4

Other Services

117.0 118.0 119.2 119.5 119.9 120.5 121.2 121.8 122.4 123.0 123.6 124.2 124.8 125.4 126.0 126.7 127.4

26

U.S. Forecast | December 2010


U . S . F o r eca s t Tab l e s Table 8. Percent Change in Implicit Price8. Deflators Table Percent

Change in Implicit Price Deflators

2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4

GDP

-0.2

1.0

1.9

2.3

0.2

1.8

1.0

1.1

1.3

1.8

1.3

1.5

1.6

1.9

1.5

1.6

1.7

Consumption

2.7

2.1

0.0

1.0

2.2

1.4

1.1

1.4

1.5

1.7

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.7

1.7

1.9

Durables

0.7

-2.0

-1.6

-2.2

-1.7

-1.0

-1.3

-1.2

-1.1

-1.0

-1.0

-0.9

-0.9

-0.7

-0.7

-0.7

-0.6

Motor Vehicles

9.9

4.2

2.6

2.3

1.5

2.6

1.6

1.3

1.3

1.0

0.9

1.0

1.0

1.1

1.0

1.1

1.2

-5.0

-3.4

-4.1

-5.4

-3.5

-2.3

-1.8

-1.3

-1.1

-0.7

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.3

-0.2

-0.2

-0.2

Other Durables

5.4

-4.5

1.4

0.7

1.1

0.7

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.4

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.7

1.7

Nondurables

3.8

4.7

-4.6

2.5

6.9

2.2

1.0

2.2

2.0

2.1

1.6

1.7

2.0

2.0

2.0

1.9

2.1

Furniture

Food

-0.1

1.8

1.6

0.3

3.5

3.5

0.6

0.5

0.6

0.4

0.4

0.7

1.0

1.3

1.3

1.4

1.6

Clothing & Shoes

-1.8

-1.3

-4.1

3.7

0.8

4.2

2.1

0.0

0.0

0.2

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.4

Gasoline & Oil

25.8

23.8

-27.8

11.7

39.1

-4.1

-2.5

9.5

6.5

7.0

3.6

3.6

4.3

3.8

3.4

3.0

3.4

Fuel

39.8

33.6

-1.9

-12.5

24.9

-6.9

-0.9

6.1

5.7

6.0

4.0

3.8

4.1

2.6

2.5

2.0

2.3

Services

2.7

1.8

1.8

1.0

1.3

1.6

1.5

1.5

1.8

2.0

1.9

2.0

2.1

2.2

2.1

2.0

2.2

Housing

-0.5

-0.5

-0.2

0.6

0.6

0.7

0.8

1.1

1.5

1.8

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.1

2.1

2.1

Electricity

7.4

-1.7

3.9

-3.8

0.8

-1.4

-0.5

-0.2

1.5

3.4

3.7

2.8

3.1

3.2

2.5

2.2

2.6

Natural Gas

0.4

24.6

-15.1

7.2

-13.0

-14.0

-13.1

4.0

21.2

17.1

4.6

15.3

18.6

8.6

-4.5

-5.0

5.2

Water & Sewer

6.1

7.4

6.7

4.4

5.3

1.9

2.3

2.8

2.9

3.0

2.9

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.0

3.1

3.1

-0.8

-1.8

-0.4

0.7

1.0

-1.5

-1.4

-0.7

-1.1

-0.9

-0.7

-0.7

-1.0

-0.9

-0.9

-0.8

-0.9

Transportation

3.8

2.7

2.6

-1.2

1.2

1.3

1.3

1.6

1.8

1.9

1.6

1.8

1.8

1.9

1.8

1.7

1.8

Other Services

5.1

3.6

4.2

1.0

1.3

2.1

2.2

2.2

1.9

1.8

2.0

2.1

1.9

2.0

2.0

2.1

2.2

Telephone

Table 9. Annual Implicit Price Deflators (2000=100)

Table 9. Annual Implicit Price Deflators (2005=100) History

GDP Consumption

Forecast

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

92.1

94.1

96.8

100.0

103.3

106.3

108.6

109.6

110.7

112.1

113.7

115.5 116.4

92.7

94.6

97.1

100.0

102.7

105.6

109.1

109.3

111.2

112.7

114.5

Durables

106.7

102.9

101.0

100.0

98.5

96.7

95.3

93.8

92.5

91.2

90.2

89.5

Motor Vehicles

101.9

99.1

98.4

100.0

100.1

99.7

98.6

98.7

103.3

105.3

106.4

107.6

Furniture

104.1

101.2

99.9

100.0

99.5

98.7

98.0

97.7

93.7

91.1

90.3

90.1

Other Durables

103.3

101.6

101.4

100.0

101.9

105.9

109.7

111.2

111.6

112.7

114.3

116.1

Nondurables

90.9

92.8

96.1

100.0

103.2

106.5

112.5

109.3

112.8

115.5

117.7

119.9

Food

93.5

95.3

98.3

100.0

101.7

105.7

112.1

113.5

114.1

116.2

116.9

118.2

103.9

101.3

100.9

100.0

99.6

98.6

97.8

98.6

98.2

99.9

100.2

100.4

Gasoline & Oil

59.9

69.8

82.1

100.0

112.8

123.9

144.5

105.9

124.6

131.6

138.6

143.6

Fuel

53.1

64.2

74.7

100.0

114.1

123.3

167.2

114.7

133.1

135.1

141.5

145.7

Services

90.8

93.7

96.7

100.0

103.4

107.0

110.6

112.2

114.2

115.9

118.1

120.5

Housing

93.0

95.4

97.6

100.0

103.6

107.3

110.3

112.3

112.3

113.2

115.1

117.4

Electricity

90.3

92.5

94.2

99.9

112.0

116.7

124.1

127.9

127.9

127.3

130.2

134.0

Natural Gas

62.8

77.2

83.6

100.2

102.6

102.4

116.6

91.1

89.5

83.1

92.7

98.5

Water & Sewer

86.5

89.7

95.0

100.0

104.9

110.3

116.8

124.0

131.9

136.4

140.4

144.5

Clothing & Shoes

Telephone

102.7

102.3

100.7

100.0

100.6

102.4

104.1

105.7

105.4

104.8

103.9

103.0

Transportation

93.1

95.1

96.5

100.0

104.2

106.6

112.4

115.6

118.0

119.3

121.4

123.6

Other Services

87.0

91.2

95.4

100.0

104.1

107.4

112.4

115.2

119.2

121.5

123.9

126.4

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

27


U . S . F o r eca s t Tab l e s Table 10. Percent Change in Implicit Price Deflators

Table 10. Percent Change in Implicit Price Deflators History

GDP Consumption

Forecast

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

1.8

2.1

3.2

3.5

2.9

2.6

2.1

0.5

1.3

1.3

1.5

1.7

2.0

1.9

3.0

3.3

1.9

3.5

1.8

1.5

1.3

1.4

1.7

1.8

Durables

-2.6

-4.0

-0.8

-1.2

-1.7

-1.7

-1.7

-1.0

-1.9

-1.1

-1.0

-0.7

Motor Vehicles

-0.7

-3.8

1.6

1.0

-0.6

0.5

-3.1

4.6

2.7

1.7

1.0

1.1

Furniture

-2.0

-3.1

-0.1

-0.4

-0.2

-1.6

0.3

-1.9

-4.1

-1.6

-0.5

-0.2

Other Durables

-2.3

-1.5

-0.1

0.0

3.3

2.9

3.7

1.6

-0.3

1.1

1.5

1.7

1.9

2.1

4.9

4.4

0.5

6.4

1.0

2.8

2.4

1.9

1.8

2.0

Nondurables Food

0.8

3.2

2.7

1.5

1.7

4.8

6.9

-1.6

1.8

1.3

0.7

1.4

Clothing & Shoes

-1.9

-1.6

-0.5

-1.3

0.2

-1.2

-0.9

1.4

-0.2

1.6

0.1

0.4

Gasoline & Oil

19.8

19.4

28.8

31.8

-0.8

30.4

4.5

24.1

11.7

2.3

4.6

3.4

Fuel

7.2

21.3

41.6

32.8

-0.4

28.1

22.4

-0.5

11.0

1.0

4.5

2.3

Services

3.0

3.2

3.2

3.8

3.1

3.5

2.9

1.5

1.5

1.6

2.0

2.1

Housing

3.4

2.2

2.4

2.5

4.4

3.0

2.7

0.9

0.1

1.0

2.0

2.1

Electricity

-2.2

3.2

1.8

10.2

8.6

5.3

8.3

-0.2

-0.2

-0.1

3.3

2.6

Natural Gas

5.3

22.2

14.7

44.7

-18.3

3.5

19.1

-18.4

0.9

-0.5

13.9

1.1

Water & Sewer

3.1

4.6

5.9

5.0

4.9

5.2

6.7

6.0

6.0

2.5

2.9

3.0

Telephone

1.0

-1.7

-1.7

0.2

1.3

1.5

2.1

0.8

-0.1

-1.2

-0.8

-0.9

Transportation

1.3

2.6

1.4

4.9

2.5

3.4

5.9

1.9

1.3

1.5

1.8

1.8

Other Services

4.5

4.9

4.4

4.6

4.0

3.3

4.4

3.0

2.5

2.1

1.9

2.1

Table 11. Personal Income and its Components

Table 11. Personal Income and its Components

2002

Personal Income Wages & Salaries Other Labor Income Nonfarm Income Farm Income Rental Income Dividends Interest Income Transfer Payments Personal Social Insurance Tax

Personal Income Wages & Salaries Other Labor Income Nonfarm Income Farm Income Rental Income Dividends Interest Income Transfer Payments Personal Social Insurance Tax 28

2003

2004

History 2005 2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Forecast 2011 2012

2013

Personal Income Billions Current Dollars 9060.1 9378.2 9937.3 10485.9 11268.1 11912.3 12391.2 12174.9 12502.2 12892.0 13396.3 13975.0 6110.8 6382.6 6693.4 7065.1 7477.0 7855.9 8060.8 7811.7 7946.0 8243.9 8619.2 9020.8 747.4 845.6 874.6 931.6 960.2 980.5 1036.7 1072.0 1106.3 1142.8 1200.6 1261.7 871.9 894.1 984.1 1025.9 1103.6 1052.6 1051.2 981.5 1009.2 1063.5 1123.7 1171.6 18.5 36.5 49.7 43.9 29.4 37.8 50.9 30.5 46.5 48.3 39.8 35.4 218.8 204.2 198.4 178.2 146.5 143.7 222.0 274.0 303.3 294.2 248.2 190.0 397.7 423.1 548.3 555.0 702.2 791.9 794.6 697.5 713.0 763.7 807.6 849.8 911.9 889.8 860.2 987.0 1127.5 1265.1 1314.7 1222.3 1190.3 1156.8 1238.1 1401.8 1282.2 1341.8 1415.5 1508.6 1605.0 1718.5 1879.3 2132.9 2293.1 2366.0 2424.5 2494.6 385.3 396.5 419.2 445.2 475.1 499.6 517.1 509.7 522.7 546.0 582.9 642.0

2.0 2.2 11.7 3.8 -38.8 -13.1 7.6

3.5 4.4 13.2 2.5 113.5 14.9 14.0

6.0 4.9 3.5 10.1 38.7 -9.4 43.3

5.5 5.6 6.5 4.3 -11.1 -10.9 -0.6

-6.5 5.7 3.2

-2.2 4.5 4.2

0.2 6.0 6.1

19.4 6.3 5.9

U.S. Forecast | December 2010

Percent Change, Annual Rate 7.5 5.7 4.0 -1.7 5.8 5.1 2.6 -3.1 3.1 2.1 5.7 3.4 7.6 -4.6 -0.1 -6.6 -32.7 28.3 38.1 -37.8 -23.8 32.7 58.7 7.8 26.8 7.6 -3.8 -11.2 10.9 6.7 6.7

13.7 7.6 5.2

-1.3 10.4 1.9

-6.8 15.0 -0.6

2.7 1.7 3.2 2.8 52.0 11.9 6.2

3.1 3.7 3.3 5.4 10.1 -10.7 8.1

3.9 4.6 5.1 5.7 -16.6 -20.2 5.1

4.3 4.7 5.1 4.3 -11.2 -22.7 4.6

-3.4 6.6 3.2

0.0 2.2 4.4

11.4 2.9 7.4

12.8 3.0 10.5


U . S . F o r eca s t Tab l e s Table 12. Personal Consumption Expenditures (Current Dollars)

Table 12. Personal Consumption Expenditures (Current Dollars)

2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 Consumer Expenditures by Type Billions Current Dollars

Consumer spending on… all goods & services durable goods furniture and appliances information processing equipment motor vehicles and parts other durable goods nondurables clothing & shoes fuel oil & coal gasoline & motor oil

10131.5 10230.8 10285.4 10376.7 10495.5 10590.8 10668.2 10768.5 10884.0 10968.9 11062.7 11151.9 11254.0 11334.9 11424.6 11507.8 11599.4 1043.9

1060.7

1074.1

1084.1

1097.3

1107.3

1119.4

1139.3

1164.6

1182.7

1196.4

1204.6

1217.4

1230.9

1241.9

1242.6

1242.3

249.3

255.3

258.2

258.2

261.1

262.5

262.4

264.0

265.7

267.3

269.6

272.5

275.2

277.5

279.2

278.6

278.1

66.5

69.0

70.1

72.4

73.8

74.3

74.9

75.6

76.4

76.7

77.5

78.4

79.3

79.7

80.6

81.6

82.8

327.0

328.3

335.9

339.1

345.6

349.9

359.5

374.4

393.1

408.6

417.0

420.0

427.2

436.0

442.3

441.5

440.0

99.1

102.5

102.3

102.9

102.6

103.6

104.2

104.7

105.8

105.5

105.7

105.7

105.9

106.1

106.3

106.6

106.8

2269.0

2319.3

2303.4

2325.0

2390.2

2411.1

2423.7

2447.5

2471.2

2489.1

2507.9

2527.2

2548.5

2562.2

2578.8

2597.7

2618.0

325.5

333.8

335.5

337.5

341.6

345.4

346.0

346.5

348.5

346.4

347.4

348.8

350.8

349.0

349.6

351.5

353.8

24.9

26.5

24.7

24.0

25.4

25.2

24.9

25.2

25.5

25.8

25.8

26.0

26.2

26.2

26.2

26.3

26.3

319.2

337.6

315.3

317.8

345.9

341.9

340.0

348.6

354.7

360.2

363.0

366.8

371.2

374.1

376.4

379.3

382.3

food

786.5

797.4

794.6

802.4

817.7

829.1

835.8

842.3

848.7

854.7

860.7

866.6

872.5

877.0

881.9

886.7

892.2

other nondurable goods

812.9

824.1

833.3

843.3

859.5

869.5

877.0

884.9

893.9

902.1

910.9

919.1

927.9

935.9

944.8

954.0

963.4

Consumer Expenditures by Type Billions 2005 Dollars Consumer spending on… all goods & services

9182.9

9225.4

9275.7

9334.6

9389.8

9441.5

9485.3

9541.1

9606.6

9640.6

9686.1

9724.4

9771.4

9797.7

9833.0

9863.2

9896.0

durable goods

1115.1

1138.9

1157.8

1175.2

1194.9

1208.8

1226.1

1251.6

1282.9

1306.3

1324.9

1337.0

1354.1

1371.6

1386.3

1389.5

1391.3

furniture and appliances

259.3

267.9

273.7

277.5

283.2

286.4

287.6

290.3

293.0

295.4

298.3

301.8

305.0

307.9

309.9

309.4

309.0

information processing equipment

107.7

113.0

117.5

122.7

125.4

128.2

132.6

137.1

142.3

146.5

152.1

157.9

164.1

169.4

175.8

182.8

190.2

motor vehicles and parts

322.7

320.6

326.0

327.2

332.2

334.2

342.0

354.9

371.5

385.2

392.3

394.1

399.8

407.0

411.7

409.9

407.3

86.1

90.2

89.2

89.8

89.2

89.9

90.4

90.6

91.3

90.9

90.7

90.6

90.5

90.4

90.3

90.2

90.1

2032.3

2053.5

2063.4

2070.0

2092.8

2099.6

2105.2

2114.2

2124.4

2128.6

2136.3

2143.7

2151.2

2152.2

2155.6

2161.1

2166.4

329.5

339.0

344.3

343.3

346.8

346.9

345.8

346.2

348.2

346.0

346.9

348.2

350.0

348.0

348.2

349.9

351.8

20.0

19.8

18.6

18.7

18.7

18.9

18.7

18.6

18.5

18.5

18.4

18.3

18.2

18.2

18.0

18.0

17.9

263.3

264.0

267.5

262.3

263.0

262.6

262.8

263.4

263.9

263.5

263.3

263.7

264.1

263.6

263.0

263.1

263.0

other durable goods nondurables clothing & shoes fuel oil & coal gasoline & motor oil food

696.3

702.7

697.6

704.0

711.2

714.9

719.5

724.3

728.7

733.0

737.4

741.1

744.2

745.8

747.4

749.0

750.6

other nondurable goods

726.0

731.9

740.0

746.5

758.1

761.2

763.1

766.4

770.0

772.3

775.3

777.5

780.0

781.7

784.2

786.7

789.2

Real Consumer Expenditures Annual Growth Rate Consumer spending on… all goods & services durable goods furniture and appliances information processing equipment motor vehicles and parts other durable goods

0.9

1.9

2.2

2.5

2.4

2.2

1.9

2.4

2.7

1.4

1.9

1.6

1.9

1.1

1.4

1.2

1.3

-1.1

8.5

6.6

6.0

6.7

4.6

5.7

8.3

10.0

7.3

5.7

3.6

5.1

5.2

4.3

0.9

0.5

9.1

13.2

8.7

5.6

8.2

4.5

1.7

3.7

3.8

3.1

3.9

4.7

4.3

3.7

2.7

-0.6

-0.6

16.5

19.5

16.0

17.7

9.0

9.0

13.5

13.7

15.1

12.0

15.1

15.2

15.7

13.0

15.0

16.0

16.1

-23.3

-2.6

6.7

1.5

6.1

2.3

9.4

15.2

18.7

14.7

7.3

1.9

5.8

7.2

4.7

-1.8

-2.6

-3.4

19.1

-4.5

2.3

-2.6

3.4

1.9

1.2

3.0

-2.0

-0.5

-0.9

-0.3

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.6

nondurables

3.1

4.2

1.9

1.3

4.4

1.3

1.1

1.7

1.9

0.8

1.4

1.4

1.4

0.2

0.6

1.0

1.0

clothing & shoes

5.6

11.5

6.2

-1.2

4.1

0.2

-1.3

0.5

2.3

-2.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

-2.3

0.3

1.9

2.2

fuel oil & coal

17.8

-4.9

-24.7

1.7

0.3

3.9

-4.0

-1.5

-1.5

-1.2

-2.6

-1.7

-1.0

-1.3

-2.6

-1.6

-1.2

gasoline & motor oil

-3.7

1.1

5.3

-7.8

1.1

-0.5

0.3

1.0

0.7

-0.6

-0.4

0.6

0.6

-0.7

-0.9

0.1

-0.2

food

5.1

3.7

-2.9

3.7

4.2

2.1

2.6

2.7

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.0

1.7

0.9

0.9

0.8

0.9

other nondurable goods

2.4

3.3

4.5

3.5

6.4

1.7

1.0

1.7

1.9

1.2

1.6

1.2

1.3

0.9

1.3

1.3

1.2

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

29


U . S . F o r eca s t Tab l e s Table 13. Personal Consumption Expenditures (2000 Dollars)

Table 13. Personal Consumption Expenditures (2005 Dollars) History 2002

2003

2004

2005

Forecast 2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Consumer Expenditures by Type Billions Current Dollars Consumer spending on… all goods & services

10347.1 10727.9 11109.4 11466.7

7439.2

7804.0

8285.1

8819.0

9322.7

9806.3 10104.5 10001.3

durable goods

992.1

1014.8

1061.6

1105.5

1133.0

1159.4

1083.5

1026.5

1079.1

1132.6

1200.3

1239.4

furniture and appliances

225.9

233.3

249.2

263.9

276.5

277.7

266.0

248.1

258.2

263.6

271.1

278.4

44.5

46.6

51.5

55.9

60.4

65.6

65.8

64.7

71.3

75.3

78.0

81.2

401.3

401.5

404.7

409.6

397.1

402.5

343.2

319.7

337.2

369.2

418.2

439.9

information processing equipment motor vehicles and parts other durable goods nondurables clothing & shoes fuel oil & coal

79.3

82.4

87.0

90.4

95.7

99.6

98.3

97.2

102.6

104.6

105.7

106.5

1617.9

1712.6

1830.7

1968.4

2088.7

2198.2

2296.0

2204.2

2334.4

2438.4

2518.2

2589.2

278.8

287.0

300.0

315.5

330.1

338.9

334.1

322.2

337.1

346.6

348.3

351.0

14.3

16.8

18.4

21.0

22.3

23.6

28.1

22.9

25.2

25.2

25.9

26.3

gasoline & motor oil

160.3

192.8

231.6

283.8

314.7

343.0

383.3

280.8

329.1

346.3

365.3

378.0

food

569.6

593.1

628.2

665.0

698.0

737.4

775.2

777.9

803.0

839.0

863.6

884.4

other nondurable goods

594.9

622.9

652.6

683.0

723.7

755.3

775.4

800.4

840.0

881.3

915.0

949.5

Consumer Expenditures by Type Billions 2005 Dollars Consumer spending on… all goods & services

8021.9

8247.6

8532.7

8819.0

9073.5

9289.5

9265.0

9153.9

9306.4

9518.6

9705.6

9847.5

durable goods

930.0

986.1

1051.0

1105.5

1150.4

1198.5

1136.4

1094.6

1166.7

1242.4

1330.6

1384.7

furniture and appliances

217.0

230.6

249.3

263.9

277.9

281.5

271.4

253.9

275.6

289.3

300.1

309.1

28.3

36.0

44.8

55.9

69.2

83.0

92.3

101.2

119.6

135.1

155.1

179.6

394.0

405.3

411.3

409.6

396.6

403.9

348.2

324.0

326.5

350.7

392.9

409.0

information processing equipment motor vehicles and parts other durable goods

74.7

79.4

84.7

90.4

94.1

93.3

87.9

85.6

89.6

90.6

90.7

90.2

1780.2

1845.6

1904.6

1968.4

2023.6

2064.3

2041.2

2017.4

2069.9

2110.9

2139.9

2158.8

268.5

283.4

297.3

315.5

331.5

343.8

341.7

326.8

343.3

346.8

347.8

349.5

26.9

26.2

24.6

21.0

19.5

19.1

16.8

20.0

18.9

18.7

18.3

18.0

gasoline & motor oil

267.5

276.3

282.1

283.8

278.9

276.8

265.3

265.3

264.2

263.2

263.6

263.2

food

609.0

622.4

639.2

665.0

686.2

697.5

691.6

685.1

703.9

721.9

738.9

748.2

other nondurable goods

612.5

640.1

662.6

683.0

708.4

729.5

731.3

723.1

744.1

765.2

776.3

785.5

nondurables clothing & shoes fuel oil & coal

Real Consumer Expenditures Annual Growth Rate Consumer spending on… all goods & services

1.9

3.4

3.5

2.7

3.3

1.8

-1.9

0.2

2.3

2.3

1.7

1.3

durable goods

1.7

9.2

5.5

2.4

6.5

3.9

-12.0

5.2

7.2

7.4

5.6

2.8

furniture and appliances

5.8

9.4

6.1

6.8

2.6

1.2

-7.8

0.4

9.3

3.5

4.1

1.3

information processing equipment

29.8

30.1

21.4

25.1

22.5

20.4

5.2

15.3

16.5

13.5

15.3

15.9

motor vehicles and parts

-4.3

5.9

1.7

-6.6

5.8

0.6

-23.2

7.4

3.0

12.0

7.7

2.0

8.1

9.1

4.2

6.8

1.2

1.0

-12.3

5.1

4.0

2.4

-0.9

-0.4

other durable goods nondurables

2.1

4.0

3.0

3.3

3.2

0.8

-2.9

1.1

3.0

1.5

1.3

0.7

clothing & shoes

3.9

5.6

5.1

7.4

3.9

2.2

-3.7

-0.3

5.3

0.4

0.5

0.5

fuel oil & coal

10.2

1.7

-15.6

-16.2

6.1

-8.8

12.6

11.6

-6.3

-0.7

-1.6

-1.7

gasoline & motor oil

0.6

4.8

0.7

-0.6

-0.4

-1.8

-3.8

-0.1

0.0

0.4

0.1

-0.4

food

1.0

1.6

3.9

4.2

3.4

0.8

-3.9

3.2

2.2

2.5

2.1

0.9

other nondurable goods

2.7

5.6

2.7

2.9

4.4

1.6

-0.9

0.0

4.4

1.6

1.3

1.2

30

U.S. Forecast | December 2010


U . S . F o r eca s t Tab l e s Table 14. Business Fixed Investment

Table 14. Business Fixed Investment History

2002

2003

2004

2005

Forecast 2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Billions Current Dollars Business Fixed Investment

1125.4

1135.7

1223.0

1347.3

1505.3

1637.5

1665.3

1364.4

1413.8

1507.0

1612.4

1768.5

Producers Dur. Equipment

842.7

853.8

916.4

995.6

1071.7

1112.6

1082.9

912.8

1031.0

1142.4

1240.0

1340.4

Nonresidential Structures

282.8

281.9

306.7

351.8

433.7

524.9

582.4

451.6

382.8

364.5

372.4

428.1

Non-Farm Buildings

188.1

182.1

196.7

212.9

247.6

297.3

322.0

256.3

176.4

165.7

183.4

236.0

Commercial

99.8

94.6

104.3

112.9

128.4

150.8

149.1

96.5

63.1

58.5

65.3

89.7

Industrial

22.7

21.4

23.7

29.9

35.1

43.7

57.4

63.1

42.6

35.9

37.5

51.7

Other Buildings

65.6

66.0

68.7

70.2

84.1

102.8

115.6

96.8

70.7

71.3

80.6

94.6

Utilities

56.3

53.5

48.6

51.4

61.1

85.6

99.5

100.0

92.1

89.9

91.6

93.9

Mines & Wells

30.2

38.4

51.9

77.1

114.2

130.9

147.9

85.0

104.2

98.3

85.8

86.5

1180.2

1191.0

1263.0

1347.3

1453.9

1552.0

1556.6

1290.8

1362.6

1441.8

1542.8

1684.3

Billions 2005 Dollars Business Fixed Investment Producers Dur. Equipment

830.3

851.4

917.3

995.6

1069.6

1109.0

1082.0

916.3

1054.3

1164.7

1264.1

1366.3

Nonresidential Structures

356.6

343.0

346.7

351.8

384.0

438.2

464.2

369.6

318.5

297.4

304.0

342.8

Non-Farm Buildings

222.3

210.0

213.9

212.9

229.2

260.5

272.0

216.1

153.3

139.1

147.5

181.1

Commercial

119.5

110.3

114.4

112.9

118.4

131.2

124.5

79.2

53.4

48.1

51.5

67.6

Industrial

26.2

24.3

25.5

29.9

33.0

39.0

48.5

52.2

35.9

28.7

28.3

37.2

Other Buildings

76.6

75.4

74.1

70.2

77.9

90.3

99.3

85.3

64.7

63.5

69.0

77.4

Utilities

66.0

61.3

52.1

51.4

56.2

75.6

82.5

83.7

76.3

72.7

72.6

72.4

Mines & Wells

52.6

60.0

69.9

77.1

88.3

93.6

99.7

64.3

80.4

77.0

75.7

80.8

Business Fixed Investment

-6.3

6.2

9.5

8.4

11.7

-15.2

10.0

5.0

8.2

10.2

Annual Growth Rate 9.0

-5.2

Producers Dur. Equipment

-4.1

6.7

8.5

6.3

6.9

3.5

-10.0

-5.3

16.0

8.9

8.5

8.1

Nonresidential Structures

-12.0

4.8

12.6

14.9

25.2

22.0

4.7

-31.7

-3.7

-5.9

7.3

17.5

Non-Farm Buildings

-14.5

3.8

10.8

7.3

18.7

22.6

-0.1

-32.0

-22.3

3.5

15.4

31.7

Commercial

-15.3

4.3

9.3

10.0

15.3

17.3

-11.8

-43.4

-24.0

5.8

13.8

46.7

Industrial

-31.9

9.1

30.4

13.8

16.1

46.6

23.0

-8.6

-29.1

-7.8

19.2

37.0

-4.4

2.5

9.2

1.7

26.0

22.6

6.7

-29.1

-16.1

7.9

15.5

17.2

Other Buildings Utilities Mines & Wells

-10.7

-3.7

5.5

3.8

23.9

54.9

0.8

1.3

-5.7

-2.6

2.4

4.5

9.1

29.4

38.0

51.3

50.0

4.8

22.5

-44.9

59.2

-23.1

-2.7

0.0

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

31


U . S . F o r eca s t Tab l e s Table 15. Government Receipts and Expenditures Table 15.

Government Receipts and Expenditures History

Forecast

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

1859.3

1885.1

2014.0

2290.1

2524.5

2654.7

2503.1

Personal Tax and Nontax Receipts

828.6

774.2

799.2

931.9

1049.9

1165.6

1102.8

2205.8

2369.6

2585.8

2816.8

3160.5

852.7

862.5

936.8

1117.4

1339.3

Corp. Profits Tax Accruals

150.5

197.8

250.3

341.0

395.0

362.8

232.2

182.1

305.3

395.2

382.7

416.6

86.8

89.3

94.3

98.8

99.4

94.5

96.0

94.4

107.1

116.0

119.6

124.9

739.3

762.8

807.6

852.6

904.6

945.3

972.4

953.5

981.7

1026.5

1086.1

1169.5

2112.1

2261.5

2393.4

2573.1

2728.3

2900.0

3119.3

3457.5

3709.6

3731.1

3762.6

3893.5

680.7

756.5

824.7

876.3

931.7

976.4

1079.9

1139.6

1212.5

1233.5

1215.8

1206.7

Federal Government Receipts and Expenditures Receipts

Indirect Business Tax and Nontax Accruals Contributions for Social Insurance Expenditures Purchases Goods & Services National Defense

437.7

498.0

550.8

589.1

624.9

662.3

737.3

771.6

817.1

829.4

808.0

792.4

Other

243.0

258.6

273.9

287.3

306.9

314.1

342.5

368.0

395.4

404.1

407.8

414.3

1252.1

1339.4

1405.1

1491.3

1587.1

1690.5

1843.7

2157.5

2325.2

2334.7

2339.8

2391.9

914.9

962.6

1014.3

1078.0

1180.7

1254.2

1387.4

1604.7

1723.8

1767.3

1794.4

1824.9

Transfer Payments To Persons

23.3

28.6

30.9

40.9

35.0

42.2

44.8

52.7

55.6

54.9

55.7

56.6

Grants in Aid to State & local Gov't

To Foreigners

304.2

338.0

349.2

361.2

359.0

380.8

396.2

484.6

529.5

495.1

471.5

491.2

Net Interest

213.7

196.5

204.6

239.0

261.0

291.0

270.1

231.3

257.8

248.5

288.5

376.9

40.3

45.3

45.7

64.1

53.9

50.2

53.5

63.1

60.5

56.1

52.9

50.6

Surplus (+) or Deficit (-)

-252.8

-376.4

-379.5

-283.0

-203.8

-245.2

-616.3

-1251.8

-1340.0

-1145.4

-945.8

-733.0

Receipts

1412.7

1496.3

1601.0

1730.5

1829.7

1923.1

1967.2

2005.8

2121.3

2128.4

2177.0

2269.7

Personal Tax/Nontax Receipts

928.7

977.7

1059.4

1163.1

1249.1

1313.6

1332.6

1267.0

1324.1

1352.3

1408.7

1468.0

Corporate Profits

339.5

Subsidies less Surplus of Gov't Entities

State and Local Government Receipts and Expenditures

221.8

226.2

248.6

276.7

302.5

323.1

335.4

287.3

288.6

300.8

318.1

Indirect Business Tax and Nontax Accruals

30.9

34.0

41.7

55.0

59.1

57.8

48.0

49.4

84.3

71.4

71.9

74.9

Contributions for Social Insurance

15.9

20.1

24.1

24.8

21.8

18.9

19.7

21.6

22.5

23.3

24.4

25.6

304.2

338.0

349.2

361.2

359.0

380.8

396.2

484.6

529.5

495.1

471.5

491.2

1466.78

1535.13

1609.33

1704.50

1778.63

1910.83

2014.58

2025.90

2090.29

2128.88

2190.69

2279.2

1302.7

1356.1

1408.2

1493.6

1586.7

1697.9

1798.5

1775.4

1785.8

1810.7

1839.3

1897.4

Federal Grants-In-Aid Expenditures Purchases Goods & Services Government Social Benefits

333.0

353.4

384.3

404.8

402.9

433.7

455.2

492.1

532.1

560.9

591.9

629.7

333.0

353.4

384.3

404.8

402.9

433.7

455.2

492.1

532.1

560.9

591.9

629.7

Interest Received

12.0

20.6

19.0

10.9

2.1

0.5

8.8

9.2

11.8

10.2

6.7

9.0

Net Subsidies

-5.2

-3.2

-0.6

0.3

1.7

16.2

16.0

10.4

10.6

8.6

4.7

3.9

1.6

1.7

2.0

2.1

2.3

2.4

2.5

2.7

2.9

3.1

3.2

3.2

Transfer Payments

Dividends Received Net Wage Accruals Surplus (+) or Deficit (-)

32

U.S. Forecast | December 2010

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

-54.1

-38.8

-8.4

26.0

51.0

12.2

-47.4

-20.1

31.0

-0.5

-13.6

-9.5


U . S . F o r eca s t Tab l e s Table 16. U.S. Exports and Imports GoodsU.S. and Services Tableof 16. Exports

and Imports of Goods and Services Forecast

History 2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Net Exports Goods & Services

-427.2

-504.1

-618.7

-722.7

-769.3

-714.0

Current Account

-458.1

-520.7

-630.5

-747.6

-802.6

-718.1

Exports -Goods & Services

1003.0

1041.0

1180.2

1305.1

1471.1

Merchandise Balance

-475.3

-541.5

-665.6

-783.8

-839.5

Food, Feed & beverage

49.60

55.03

56.55

58.95

Industrial Supplies Excl Petroleum

153.5

168.3

199.5

78.9

80.7

89.2

290.5

293.7

38.6

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

-710.5

-386.4

-532.2

-517.5

-501.8

-455.9

-668.9

-378.4

-494.5

-486.1

-494.6

-525.3

1661.7

1843.4

1578.4

1830.4

2020.6

2210.2

2430.9

-823.2

-834.7

-506.9

-664.0

-664.6

-668.9

-645.1

65.98

84.28

108.38

93.90

101.52

107.17

109.11

115.36

227.5

267.3

316.2

386.9

293.7

382.0

417.7

452.7

489.5

98.4

107.3

121.3

121.4

81.7

112.1

125.7

144.4

165.8

327.6

358.4

404.1

433.0

457.7

390.5

447.4

515.0

580.9

664.8

39.9

42.8

45.5

47.6

45.6

43.9

37.7

44.1

52.8

59.0

65.5

201.5

207.1

238.7

257.0

291.9

314.5

339.8

278.0

330.4

378.4

428.9

495.2

Consumer Goods, Excl. MVP

84.4

89.9

103.3

115.3

129.1

146.0

161.3

150.0

164.0

180.8

201.3

224.7

Other Consumer

43.5

39.4

41.0

47.5

50.8

61.3

59.4

53.2

62.0

67.3

72.4

77.5

302.8

314.2

363.3

399.0

446.7

499.7

548.3

515.3

561.3

606.9

649.3

693.2

Imports -Goods & Services

1430.2

1545.2

1798.9

2027.8

2240.4

2375.7

2553.8

1964.8

2362.5

2538.1

2711.9

2886.9

Merchandise

1193.9

1289.3

1501.7

1708.0

1884.9

2001.6

2148.8

1587.8

1956.2

2103.4

2254.8

2407.0

49.7

55.8

62.1

68.1

75.0

81.7

89.0

81.6

92.1

99.1

101.0

104.4

Petroleum & Products

103.5

133.1

180.5

251.9

302.5

347.6

477.6

267.4

353.1

359.2

385.2

403.9

Industrial Supplies Excl Petroleum

159.6

175.7

226.4

266.0

291.4

295.7

316.5

195.2

253.0

266.6

286.9

316.6

Motor Vehicles & Parts

203.8

210.1

228.2

239.5

256.6

256.6

231.2

157.6

227.9

245.6

275.3

304.6

Capital Goods, Excl. MVP

284.0

296.4

344.5

380.8

420.0

446.0

455.2

369.7

452.9

518.7

555.7

597.3

75.2

76.5

88.6

93.3

101.4

105.2

100.9

93.9

120.2

127.5

135.7

144.4

Other

183.3

195.8

231.6

261.7

290.2

306.5

318.9

245.3

302.3

356.4

379.8

407.8

Consumer Goods, Excl. MVP

310.7

337.7

377.2

411.5

446.1

478.2

484.7

430.7

487.4

524.2

555.0

576.2

82.7

80.5

82.9

90.3

93.5

95.9

94.5

85.6

89.8

89.9

95.7

104.1

236.4

255.9

297.3

319.8

355.4

374.0

405.0

377.0

406.3

434.7

457.2

479.8

Net Exports Goods & Services

-548.8

-604.0

-688.0

-722.7

-729.2

-654.9

-504.1

-363.0

-435.9

-412.6

-379.1

-318.8

Exports G & S

1099.2

1116.8

1222.8

1305.1

1422.1

1554.4

1647.7

1490.7

1662.0

1796.4

1941.2

2108.3

Imports G & S

1648.0

1720.7

1910.8

2027.8

2151.2

2209.3

2151.8

1853.8

2097.9

2209.0

2320.3

2427.1

Exports G & S

5.6

9.0

11.7

10.3

14.0

14.6

0.0

2.8

12.7

9.8

9.3

10.4

Imports G & S

13.4

8.0

19.1

12.1

5.4

9.1

-2.1

-0.3

16.1

6.0

6.9

6.4

Real Exports G & S

4.2

6.6

7.1

6.8

10.4

10.2

-2.0

1.9

8.5

8.4

7.9

9.0

Real Imports G & S

9.7

5.4

11.0

5.2

4.2

0.9

-5.4

-4.8

13.8

4.5

5.3

4.3

Billions of Dollars

Motor Vehicles & Parts Capital Goods, Excl. MVP Computer Equipment Other

Services

Billions of Dollars

Food, Feed & Beverage

Computer Equipment

Other Consumer Services

Billions 2005 Dollars

Exports & Imports % Change

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

33


In Appeciation

The UCF College of Business Administration would like to thank Alan C. Charron, ‘84, for his generous gift to the Institute for Economic Competitiveness. His support enables the Institute to publish this forecast and will help fund future activities and research. Charron graduated in 1984 with a degree in finance. He is president of Real Property Specialists, Inc., located in Orlando, Florida. Founded in 1992, Real Property Specialists, Inc., is a fullservice brokerage company that has built a reputation of providing highly personalized service while being responsive and flexible to its clients' individual needs. They offer a range of commercial real estate services in the Central Florida area including brokerage, appraisal, development, property management and tenant representation. Real Property Specialists, Inc., has set a new standard of excellence in client service by providing these key advantages over the competition:

Responsiveness. You work directly with a decision

maker who has the flexibility to immediately attend to your needs.

Consistency. We are a unified firm employing team-

members who are committed to the success of our clients. We pride ourselves on our ability to maintain a dedicated, professional staff that is able to build long-term, comfortable and prosperous relationships with our clients.

Accountability. At Real Property Specialists, our client is the real "Boss." We are accountable to no one other than the client. No company policy interferes with our ability to serve the individual needs of each client. Experience. The staff at Real Property Specialists is

highly qualified, with most associates having more than a decade of experience in the industry. Our personal portfolio of shopping centers gives us first-hand knowledge of what is important when leasing, managing or selling a property.

Appraisers • Brokers • Consultants 6700 Conroy-Windermere Road, Suite 230 | Orlando, FL 32835 407.291.9000 | www.realpropertyspecialists.com


Director, Institute for Economic Competitiveness. Ph.D., Pennsylvania State University 1996; M.A., Pennsylvania State University 1994; B.S., Allegheny College 1989.

Sean M. Snaith, Ph.D.

We would like to recognize the following organizations for their support of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness:

Sean Snaith, Ph.D., is the Director of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness within the College of Business Administration at the University of Central Florida and is a widely recognized economist in the field of business and economic forecasting. As an award-winning forecaster, researcher, and professor, Snaith is always interested in the application of academic expertise to the solution of real world problems. Snaith has served as a consultant for a client list ranging from local and regional municipalities to multi-national corporations, including Compaq, Dell and IBM. He has held teaching positions at Pennsylvania State University, American University in Cairo, University of North Dakota and University of the Pacific. Snaith frequently appears in national and regional media and is sought after as a speaker. He has been quoted in the Wall Street Journal, USA Today, the New York Times, and the Chicago Tribune and has appeared on CNBC and Fox Business Channel. Known for his engaging presentations, one business editor wrote, “Snaith (has) an uncanny knack of making economics not only understandable but interesting.” Snaith is a member of several economic organizations and national economic forecasting panels including USA Today’s Survey of Top Economists, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s Survey of Professional Forecasters, Bloomberg, Reuters and the Livingston Survey. In 2007 he was named California’s most accurate forecaster by the Western Blue Chip Consensus Forecast, besting UCLA, Wells Fargo and other esteemed forecasting groups. Snaith holds a B.S. in Economics from Allegheny College and an M.A. and Ph.D. in Economics from Pennsylvania State University. Snaith was recently named by Bloomberg News as one of the nation’s most accurate forecasters and was one of just two academic economists making the list which was released in the December 2008 issue of Bloomberg Markets. For more information Sean Snaith, Director Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida P.O. Box 161400 Orlando, FL 32816 PH: 407.823.1451 FAX: 407.823.1454 E-MAIL: ssnaith@bus.ucf.edu www.iec.ucf.edu


University of Central Florida College of Business Administration Institute for Economic Competitiveness P. O . B o x 1 6 1 4 0 0 , O r l a n d o , F l o r i d a 3 2 8 1 6 P H 4 0 7. 8 2 3 . 1 4 5 3

FA X 4 0 7 . 8 2 3 . 1 4 5 4

w w w. i e c . u c f. e d u


U.S. Forecast October 2010