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Florida & Metro Forecast 2012-2042

Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida

Published July 2012


Dean’s Message Greetings! Let me begin this message by introducing myself as the new dean of the College of Business Administration.

About University of C e n t r a l F lo r i da ( U C F )

I have joined UCF from the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, where I served as dean and management professor for the past five years. Moving to Florida from Nevada has been a rather smooth transition because there are many similarities between the two states. Both states have been hit hard by the recession, were major victims of the housing crisis, had high unemployment rates, and for the first time in years, experienced a decline in tourists as well as population growth. And did I mention the heat? Not all the similarities are discouraging however. I think the biggest similarity is the people. Residents of both states have shown resiliency and continue to find ways to make it through the economic downturn. It is a slow, gradual process and we have to remain patient. In the meantime, I encourage you to continue reading the economic forecasts produced by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness. The quarterly publication contains current data and information on the economic conditions throughout the entire state.

About the College of B u s i n e s s A d m i n i s t r at i o n

One of the things that I like most about being a dean is that I get to share information as well, and communicate with people from all over. While I enjoy reaching you through these messages, I also encourage you to read my weekly blog at www.bus.ucf.edu/dean and follow me on Twitter @pauljarley to get to know me even better. What matters to you, matters to me. Please feel free to contact me on Twitter or at pjarley@bus.ucf.edu with your thoughts and suggestions. Let’s talk! Enjoy the rest of your summer,

P aul Jarley Paul Jarley Dean


Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida

F lo r i da F o r eca s t 2012 - 2042 July 2012 Report

Published quarterly by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, College of Business Administration, University of Central Florida Copyright Š 2012 Institute for Economic Competitiveness. All rights reserved.

Publications of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness are made possible by the following staff: Dr. Sean Snaith, Director Elaine Vogt, Administrative Assistant Alexandra Betrone-Harpst, Researcher Sangitha Palaniappa, Researcher Ashley Miller, Researcher Casey Moore, Researcher Nicholas Simons, Researcher This forecast was prepared based upon assumptions reflecting the Institute for Economic Competitiveness’ judgments as of the date it bears. Actual results could vary materially from the forecast. Neither the Institute for Economic Competitiveness nor the University of Central Florida shall be held responsible as a consequence of any such variance. Unless approved by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, the publication or distribution of this forecast and the preparation, publication or distribution of any excerpts from this forecast are prohibited.


TABLE OF CONTENTS Florida Highlights and Summary................................. 5-10 Florida Forecast Tables.................................................. 11-26

Ta b l e o f c o n t e n t s

Florida Forecast Charts................................................ 28-36 Florida News Summaries.................................................... 37 Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach...............39-46 Gainesville.......................................................................... 47-54 Jacksonville....................................................................... 55-62 Lakeland.............................................................................63-70 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach....................... 71-78 Naples-Marco Island......................................................79-86 Ocala....................................................................................87-94 Orlando-Kissimmee...................................................... 95-102 Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville................................103-110 Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent........................................ 111-118 Tallahassee....................................................................... 119-126 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater..........................127-135


FLORID A HIGHLIGHTS

H i g h l i g h t s o f t h e J u ly 2 0 1 2 F l o r i d a FORE C AST 2 0 1 2 -2 0 4 2 • Summertime and nothin’ is easy. At least as far as Florida’s economic recovery goes. • Job creation in Florida is darkened by the same “50 Shades of Gray” that are casting a pall over the national labor market. • Payroll job growth year-over-year is expected to average 1.1% in 2012, 1.9% in 2013, 1.8% in 2014 and 2.4% in 2015. It will be the 4th quarter of 2016 before payrolls recover to their pre-recession levels. • Unemployment will remain obstinately high; it will finally fall below 8% in the fourth quarter of 2014. • Unemployment rates, while high, will continue a long, slow, decline. The emphasis is still on slow as labor force growth will put a floor beneath the unemployment rate. It will be 2016 Q2 before we see unemployment fall below 7%. • The sectors expected to have the strongest average growth rates during 2012-2015 are Construction (6.4%); Professional and Business Services (4.1 %); Trade, Transportation & Utilities (3.1 %); Manufacturing (2.0%) and Information (1.8 %). • Florida’s housing construction sector bottomed out in 2009 and wallowed in that trough for two years. Housing starts will continue their climb this year and begin a slow acceleration in the next. Total starts at an annual rate will be 165.2 thousand in the 4th quarter of 2015. • At no point during the 30-year forecast horizon will housing starts climb to more than 74% of the peak levels of starts during the housing boom. The new post housing bubble peak occurs in 2026. • Real Gross State Product (RGSP) will expand by 1.9% in 2012, and growth will accelerate to 2.6% in 2013, 2.9% in 2014, and 3.8% in 2015. • Real personal income growth turned positive in 2010 after two years of contraction. From 2012-2015, real personal income growth will average 3.2%, and will peak at 3.8% in 2015. • Florida’s population growth will continue its gradual recovery in 2012 to 1.2% and accelerate over the next several years. By 2015 the growth rate should hit 1.7% as repairs of the damage from the housing and financial crises progress and the Baby Boomer retiree flow are jump-started. • 2012 retail sales should finish much stronger for the year growing 5.7% but ease into 2013 as consumers are still nursing their housing wounds. Retail sales will grow at an average pace of 4.1% during 2013-2015. Institute for Economic Competitiveness

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Florida Summary

Outlo o k f or Flor i da 2012 -2 0 1 5

Summertime and Nothin’ is Easy The nation is now in the fourth year of the recovery that followed the Great Recession. Florida is two and a half years into its recovery that began in 2010. Being in recovery beats being in recession, but the nature of the recovery nationally and in Florida leaves much to be desired.

In the July issue of the U.S. Forecast we discussed the “Fifty Shades of Gray” underneath which the U.S. economic recovery is unfolding. The gray is both a play on the novel title and metaphor alluding to the clouds of economic policy and other uncertainty that are weighing down on the national economy. Despite being the Sunshine state, this same pall of gray weighs on the recovery in Florida as well.

The story of this business cycle in Florida is wellknown and often repeated, but can never be overstated. The once in a lifetime housing boom that fueled the state’s economic growth was so pronounced that when it went bust, the fallout was so severe and the damage so profound that we knew recovery was going to be, even under the best of circumstances, daunting. Unfortunately, this recovery is not taking place under the best of circumstances. In fact, our own national economic policies have either failed us or have made the walls of this deep hole that we find ourselves in more slippery and difficult to get a solid foothold, preventing the economy from gaining traction. Sorry, I don’t mean to be such a summer bummer.

There are, however, continuing signs that we are making some progress in the economic recovery. The unemployment rate has declined from its peak, jobs are being created, albeit sporadically and sparsely, sales tax revenues have been surprisingly to the upside, and there are signs of life in a housing market that has been flat lined for too long. 6

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

The further you look beyond the summer and into the forecast horizon, the brighter the outlook becomes. Payroll job growth more than doubles from 2011 to 2015. Real Gross State Product growth nearly triples over the same time period. Population growth rates increase by nearly 50% from 2011 to 2015 and the housing market makes like Lazarus as housing starts increase by over 350%. Look way out to the end of the 30 year horizon of this month’s annual forecast at Florida in 2042 and what you’ll see is Florida transformed into a powerful economy. GSP is expected to be nearly $3.4 trillion, or 4.39 times the size of the economy in 2011. If the economy were that big today, Florida would be the world’s 5th largest economy, behind Germany and ahead of France, Brazil, the UK, and Italy.

Payroll jobs in 2042 are expected to number 11.4 million, or 4.2 million more jobs than in 2011. The structure of the economy is expected to change as well. The employment shares of Leisure and Hospitality, Government, and Retail Trade all decline by 2.5% or more. The share of Professional and Business Services grows by nearly 12%.

Florida’s population in 2042 is expected to be 30.6 million. That’s 10.7 more Floridians than in 2011. I sure hope the jet pack has made it on the scene by then, or I-4 and I-95 will be the 10th layer of Dante’s Inferno. Looking ahead to the future of Florida’s economy helps disperse the gray that currently hovers over the economy and reveals a sunnier economic future. However, for the approximately 1.58 million Floridians who are unemployed, underemployed, discouraged workers or marginally attached to the labor force it’s, in the lyrics of Bananarama, just another cruel, cruel summer.

Gr o ss State P r o d uc t Real Gross State Product (GSP) in Florida, the statelevel analogue to Real GDP, exited from recession and entered a recovery in 2010. Growth was modest that year at 1.4% and remained modest for 2011, with full year growth coming in at just 1.3%.


Florida Summary

In 2012, we expect the economy to continue to grow at an improved but still subpar rate of 1.9%.

The burden of lost housing wealth that Florida’s consumers have to overcome is considerably higher than consumers in most states around the nation. Other burdens include persistently higher levels of unemployment and underemployment rates, and insufficient job creation to date. However, as 2012 gives way to 2013 and beyond, the economy will begin to grow more rapidly.

Real GDP growth in 2013 is expected to come in at 2.6% after which growth will accelerate to 2.9% in 2014 and 3.8% in 2015. Nominal Gross State Product is expected to reach nearly $915.8 billion in 2015, as Florida continues to progress toward becoming a trillion-dollar economy. The state will likely cross that threshold five years from now in 2017. Florida’s economy is one of the largest in the world and is expected to grow even larger in the years ahead as noted above.

P erso n a l I n c o m e , Retai l Sales, a n d Au to Sa l e s Personal income growth year-over-year decelerated in the second half of 2011 and into the first half of 2012 in Florida. It increased nearly 5.5% in the 1st quarter of 2011 and 5.0% in the 2nd quarter. The deceleration continued in the 2nd half of the year with growth of 4.4% and 4.1% in the 3rd and 4th quarters respectively. In the first half of 2012 growth appears to have stabilized at 3.2%. Looking forward, we expect that growth will accelerate and average 4.4% in the final half of 2012, for a full year average growth rate of 3.8%. In 2013 personal income growth will continue to accelerate and grow at 4.4%, then 5.0% in 2014 and 5.7% in 2015. Personal income growth in Florida lagged behind that of the nation as a whole during 2007-2011. In 2012, the positions were reversed and Florida outpaces the nation with personal income growth that is an average of 0.6% higher than the nation through 2015. Personal income will reach nearly $907 billion in 2015 - a year that will boast the highest growth since 2006.

Real disposable income growth, which also has been suppressed by the besieged economy, increased to just 1.4% in 2010, but this was the first growth since 2006. The growth rate eased in 2011 to 1.0%, but should see acceleration from here. In 2012, growth should come in at 1.9%, rise to 2.5% in 2013, 2.9% in 2014 and 3.7% in 2015. The stock market and bond market have made a strong recovery from the lows of the financial crisis, recovering aggregate financial wealth lost during the financial crisis. Sentiment has turned more bullish the past several years, but the stock market is still not fully back at the pre-recession, pre-crisis highs. The housing market nationally and in Florida has had no such run of luck, and housing prices still seem to be struggling to find a firm and solid bottom. Consumers have little choice when it comes to trying to rebuild their depleted home equity wealth other than to save more of their income and to try to put back together shattered nest eggs. This negative wealth effect will continue to dampen consumer spending in Florida and the U.S. Florida’s persistently high unemployment and underemployment will continue to weigh on consumer spending in Florida as well. As the labor market shifts into a mode where private sector job creation shows greater momentum, it will further help lift consumer confidence and spending. A consumer with a job is a consumer who is willing to spend more freely. New hiring and job security for the currently employed, however, will help to unleash even more of the pentup consumer spending that was postponed during the several years of layoffs and other cost cutting measures by businesses.

High and volatile oil and gasoline prices impacted Florida’s consumers and economy in 2011, and they continue to do so. Gasoline prices pulled back from the $4.00 a gallon mark, a level that, in the spring, many analysts believed would be penetrated this summer. But the decline in prices was partially reversed as soon as fear of military action in the Persian Gulf began once again to mount. Rising gasoline prices impact consumers like a tax that pulls money from their wallet (and thus other sectors of the economy), and into their Institute for Economic Competitiveness

7


Florida Summary

tanks. They can also suppress consumer confidence, another channel through which high gasoline prices can reduce consumer spending. Despite this energy wildcard, retail sales in Florida will grow at 5.67% in 2012. Once the labor market has fully cleared the starting gate, it’s still admittedly long path to recovery, retail spending will continue to grow. We expect retail sales to expand an average of 4.5% in 2012-2015. The average growth rate of retail sales will be nearly 5.4% during the 2012-2014 time frames. Although retail sales growth is not expected to reach the levels experienced during the height of the housing and economic boom, it should continue to help to partially alleviate the budget woes in Tallahassee in 2012 and 2013. As the economy continues to grow, consumers’ pentup demand and replacement needs for automobiles and light trucks continues to be released. 2010 was the start of a six year period of growth in the number of new passenger car and truck registrations in Florida. Growth will be robust during 2012-2015, averaging nearly 11%. In 2015, registrations will reach 1.34 million, representing a 192% increase from the 2009 nadir, but still not reaching the peak level of registrations during the height of the housing boom.

Employm e n t Overall payroll employment in the state grew 1.1% for 2011. This was the first year of growth after three long years of payroll contraction. Payroll job growth appears to have taken root in 2011 and growth has continued into 2012. These roots are not yet deep enough to inspire that Florida’s jobs tree is sturdy. Job growth has been tepid and wobbly in the first half of 2012 but it should gain some momentum in the second half. In 2013 job growth versus a year ago is expected to come in at 1.9%. This year will also mark the first time since 2006 that job growth in Florida exceeds the national rate of job growth. Payroll job growth will hover around this rate in 2014 but will accelerate to 2.4% in 2015. The beleaguered Construction sector still has the rest 8

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

of this year with year over year job losses before it too joins in the labor market’s recovery, the final private sector to do so. This sector has been shedding jobs profusely after peaking during the housing boom – 384 thousand jobs to date -and it will be six straight years of job losses before the job recovery in the construction sector gets underway.

Job growth will return to the Construction sector in the 1st quarter of 2013. Job growth rates are expected to surge from -2.9% in 2012 to 3.7% in 2013, 10.4% in 2014, and to an eye-popping 14.3% in 2015. These yearly growth rates yield an average growth rate of 6.1% over 2012-2015. These growth rates at first glance appear to be quite large but are being calculated from a dramatically lower base of employment in the sector. By the end of 2015, employment in this sector should be back at levels previously reached in 1997. It will be 2031 before employment in the Construction sector returns to its pre-recession, pre-housing crisis peak levels.

After the Construction sector’s phoenix display, the Professional and Business Services sector will be the state’s fastest growing sector through 2015. Job growth in this sector is expected to lead the state averaging 4.1% during 2012-2015. Job gains have been heaviest in the employment services segment as businesses take this intermediate step to hiring their own employees. By the fourth quarter of 2012 job growth in the sector will be 2.2%. For the full year, 2012 will see job growth at 2.0% and it will accelerate and reach 4.4% in 2013, 4.1% in 2014, and 5.8% in 2015. This sector will recover quickly and will get back to pre-recession peak levels of employment before the end of the 3rd quarter of 2014.

The Information sector shed jobs through most of 2011. Employment stabilized, but growth has stagnated in 2012 thus far, though it is expected to expand in the 2nd half of 2012. Structural changes in this industry since the bursting of the dot com bubble, fueled by technological evolution in the publishing, news, and telecommunications, have resulted in a long downward trend in the sector.

Job growth should return to the Information sector year over year in 2012 and this may mark the beginning of a reversal of that downward trend. Job growth


Florida Summary

will be quite modest in 2012 at 0.6% as the recovery cautiously emerges and averages 1.8% in 2012-2015. Not earth shattering growth, but far better than the average growth rate of -4.5% of the preceding 4 years.

The sector that generated jobs throughout the recession and that is expected to continue to expand through the end of 2015 is the Health and Education sector. During 2012-2015, employment in this sector is expected to expand at an average rate of 1.7%. Budget woes will likely constrain employment levels on the education side of the sector as schools face significant revenue constraints due to the housing sector’s slow convalescence. Healthcare reform continues to be a source of uncertainty but with an aging population and expanded insurance coverage, demand for health services will fuel job growth.

Manufacturing employment expanded weakly in Florida in 2011 at 0.8%. Globalization and productivity gains in manufacturing have reduced employment in this sector for the better part of a decade. The sector is emerging from this period of globalization as competitive as it has been in many years, but the longer run trends will continue to put pressure on the sector. We are expecting to see job growth of 1.3% in this sector for the full year in 2012, followed by stronger years of job growth in 2013 and 2014, when manufacturing employment will expand at a rate of 2.4% and 2.8%. For the first time in over two decades, and likely the last time for a decade or more, manufacturing is expected to gain jobs in five consecutive years, as 2015 job growth is expected to be 1.6%.

Un em p loym e n t Unemployment rates nationally and in Florida remain at persistently high levels, despite the fact that the national recession came to an end in June of 2009 and in Florida it ended in 2010. Real Gross State Product has been growing since the 1st quarter of 2010, but the pace of that growth has been weak and is likely to persist through 2012. Average real GSP growth from 2010 through 2012 is expected to be just 1.5%. This level of growth does not rapidly bring

down unemployment and it pales in comparison to the rate of growth in the previous recovery. Despite the slow economic recovery, the unemployment rate has been in decline since 2010 Q4, but the magnitude of these declines has been exaggerated by a shrinking labor force, as has been the case with the national rate of unemployment. As that trend reverses itself and discouraged workers reenter the labor force, the task of bringing down the unemployment rate will become an increasingly difficult and protracted proposition.

Unemployment, which stood at 8.6% in the 2nd quarter of 2012, will remain above 8% through the 4th quarter of 2014. Unemployment will continue its slow decline and it will continue to fall through the end of 2015. By the end of 2015, unemployment will still be uncomfortably high at 7.4%.

Payroll job growth, as it gains momentum beginning in 2013, will trigger the reentry of discouraged workers who had previously abandoned the job search. This source of growth in the labor force, which has not yet fully materialized as Florida’s labor force has only recently shown weak growth in 2012, will make the reduction in the unemployment rate a more challenging and prolonged process. These levels of unemployment, although on a downward trend, are still quite high. In fact, we do not expect to see unemployment in Florida fall below 6.0% again until 2019.

The problem of underemployment and marginally attached workers– those who are neither working nor looking for work, but indicate that they want and are available for a job, and have looked for work sometime in the past twelve months— and those who have given up searching for a job entirely, is a substantial one. When adding these workers to the top level unemployment figure, this broader measure of unemployment, known as U-6, paints an even grimmer picture of labor markets, and is currently 17.0% through the 2nd quarter of 2012 in Florida, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

9


n & Health loyment

s)

July 2012

Ta b l e s

2026 2030 2034 2038 2042

F l o r i d a FORE C A ST


F l o r i d a S u m m a r y Ta b l e s Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

508.4

531.2

582.8

633.2

690.3

Florida (%Ch)

4.3

4.5

9.7

8.7

9.0

721.1

740.7

697.3

719.8

4.5

2.7

-5.8

U.S.(%Ch)

2.0

3.5

6.0

5.5

3.2

7.5

5.7

4.6

-4.2

548.0

561.2

600.0

3.7

633.1

671.9

683.5

679.9

638.8

647.8

Florida (%Ch)

2.9

2.4

U.S.(%Ch)

3.8

2.5

6.9

5.5

6.1

1.7

-0.5

-6.0

1.4

10.1

4.3

7.6

-4.6

-0.6

-13.7

491.9

511.0

543.2

9.2

564.1

598.6

609.0

617.2

589.9

598.2

Florida (%Ch)

5.2

3.9

6.3

3.9

6.1

1.7

1.3

-4.4

1.4

U.S.(%Ch)

3.8

2.5

10.1

4.3

7.6

-4.6

-0.6

-13.7

9.2

535.9

573.7

621.3

680.3

730.2

759.6

747.8

732.8

747.7

5.8

7.0

8.3

9.5

7.4

4.0

-1.5

-2.0

2.0

582.7

609.6

641.0

680.3

706.6

714.0

689.9

664.1

673.4

(%Ch)

3.5

4.6

5.2

6.1

3.9

1.1

-3.4

-3.7

1.4

Employment

0.0

1.7

3.0

3.8

3.3

3.0

-2.2

-6.0

Labor Force

1.1

1.3

2.3

2.9

2.8

3.7

0.2

-1.7

0.7

FL Unemployment Rate (%)

5.7

5.3

4.7

3.8

3.3

4.0

6.3

10.4

11.3

U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

5.8

6.0

5.5

5.1

4.6

4.6

5.8

9.3

9.6

-0.7

Personal Income and GSP Personal Income (Bil. $)

Personal Income (Bil. 2005$)

Disp. Income (Bil. 2005$)

GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch) GSP (Bil. 2005$)

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change) -0.3

Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) Total Nonfarm U.S. Florida Mining Construction

-1.1

-0.3

1.1

1.7

1.8

1.1

-0.6

-4.4

0.1

1.1

3.4

4.0

2.6

0.3

-3.5

-6.3

-0.8

-12.8

-1.2

0.2

-0.8

-6.5

1.6

-7.8

-11.5

-0.5

1.1

3.8

9.3

11.3

7.1

-8.7

-17.2

-23.1

-11.3

Manufacturing

-5.8

-4.3

0.2

1.2

0.3

-4.2

-7.0

-12.7

-4.5

Nondurable Goods

-3.6

-3.3

-2.1

-1.8

-2.0

-1.5

-6.2

-10.0

-3.6

Durable Goods

-6.9

-4.8

1.4

2.6

1.4

-5.4

-7.4

-14.0

-4.9

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

-2.8

-3.2

1.6

3.8

1.4

0.1

-2.1

-6.7

-2.0

Wholesale Trade

-0.2

0.5

3.3

4.1

2.9

1.5

-3.1

-8.0

-2.9

Retail Trade

-1.2

-0.3

2.8

4.1

2.0

1.3

-2.9

-6.6

0.2

Financial Activities

1.2

2.2

3.8

5.0

3.1

-1.0

-4.6

-7.4

-1.9

Prof. and Business Services

0.3

1.6

6.1

7.4

4.4

0.7

-6.3

-8.2

1.3

Edu & Health Services

2.7

3.7

2.9

2.5

2.7

3.1

2.1

1.2

1.9

Leisure & Hospitality

0.4

1.7

4.2

2.6

1.5

2.0

-1.4

-4.5

0.5 -4.6

Information

-5.7

-3.8

-2.0

0.2

-0.9

-0.3

-3.4

-8.6

Federal Gov't.

0.4

3.3

0.4

1.5

-0.7

0.2

1.4

2.2

7.2

State & Local Gov't.

1.7

1.1

1.4

1.4

2.0

2.4

0.2

-1.6

-1.2

Population and Migration Population (thous) (%Ch)

16727.1 17060.8 17468.8 17875.7 18184.1 18385.1 18540.8 18682.0 18870.3 2.0

2.0

2.4

2.3

1.7

1.1

0.8

0.8

1.0

71.2

79.9

92.9

78.8

48.3

29.4

21.0

26.9

38.7

0.9

13.1

18.4

-15.0

-40.5

-34.6

-29.1

43.7

58.5

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous)

181.8

207.6

239.2

271.5

203.3

101.5

61.6

33.7

38.1

Housing Starts Single Family (thous)

133.2

160.2

183.0

210.7

156.2

75.2

40.9

26.8

31.7

48.6

47.4

56.2

60.9

47.1

26.2

20.7

6.9

6.4

1.7

2.7

2.9

4.2

-0.2

1.2

Net Migration (thous) (%Ch)

Housing

Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

Consumer Prices (%Ch)

4.6

4.1

3.4

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

11


F l o r i d a S u m m a r y Ta b l e s Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

754.0

782.7

817.4

858.3

907.0

963.2

Florida (%Ch)

4.8

3.8

4.4

5.0

5.7

6.2

U.S.(%Ch)

5.0

3.2

3.9

4.5

4.9

662.3

677.8

701.1

722.5

Florida (%Ch)

2.2

2.3

3.4

U.S.(%Ch)

6.0

4.7

5.3

604.4

616.0

Florida (%Ch)

1.0

U.S.(%Ch)

6.0 766.4

2017

2018

2019

2020

1018.1

1074.3

1130.8

1186.3

5.7

5.5

5.3

4.9

5.0

4.4

4.4

4.2

4.2

749.9

783.9

816.7

848.9

881.0

911.2

3.1

3.8

4.5

4.2

4.0

3.8

3.4

6.1

6.0

4.1

4.2

5.1

5.1

5.1

631.2

649.3

673.1

702.7

731.9

759.8

787.8

813.7

1.9

2.5

2.9

3.7

4.4

4.1

3.8

3.7

3.3

4.7

5.3

6.1

6.0

4.1

4.2

5.1

5.1

5.1

793.4

825.8

864.9

915.8

966.2

1016.0

1066.3

1116.5

1167.3

Personal Income and GSP Personal Income (Bil. $)

Personal Income (Bil. 2005$)

Disp. Income (Bil. 2005$)

GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch)

2.5

3.5

4.1

4.7

5.9

5.5

5.2

4.9

4.7

4.6

682.2

695.1

713.0

733.6

761.7

789.2

815.9

841.7

866.9

891.8

(%Ch)

1.3

1.9

2.6

2.9

3.8

3.6

3.4

3.2

3.0

2.9

Employment

2.2

3.0

1.7

1.3

1.8

2.0

1.9

1.8

1.7

1.4

Labor Force

1.3

1.0

1.3

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.5

1.5

1.4

1.4

10.5

8.7

8.4

8.2

7.6

7.0

6.6

6.3

6.0

5.9

9.0

8.1

7.9

7.6

7.1

6.6

6.3

6.0

5.9

5.7

0.8

GSP (Bil. 2005$)

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change)

FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) Total Nonfarm U.S.

1.2

1.4

1.3

1.4

1.6

1.6

1.3

1.0

0.8

Florida

1.1

1.1

1.9

1.8

2.4

2.4

2.1

1.6

1.3

1.2

4.0

-0.1

-0.2

-3.2

-1.7

-0.9

-1.6

-2.5

-3.1

-2.7

Mining Construction

-5.8

-2.9

3.7

10.4

14.3

11.4

7.1

4.2

1.9

1.3

Manufacturing

0.8

1.3

2.4

2.8

1.6

0.2

-0.5

-0.5

-0.6

-0.4

Nondurable Goods

0.2

0.4

0.0

-0.6

-1.0

-1.0

-0.7

-0.6

-0.8

-0.7

Durable Goods

1.1

1.8

3.6

4.5

2.9

0.8

-0.4

-0.4

-0.5

-0.3

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

2.8

2.8

3.2

3.0

3.4

3.6

3.6

2.2

0.7

0.1

Wholesale Trade

0.0

1.0

2.8

2.2

2.8

2.7

2.8

2.0

1.3

1.2

Retail Trade

2.4

1.6

0.8

0.0

0.9

1.5

0.9

0.5

0.3

0.0

Financial Activities

1.4

1.6

1.4

0.0

0.3

0.5

1.3

1.1

0.9

0.6

Prof. and Business Services

3.6

2.0

4.4

4.1

5.8

4.5

4.4

3.8

3.5

3.6

Edu & Health Services

2.3

1.6

1.3

1.8

2.0

3.0

2.4

1.8

1.7

1.6

Leisure & Hospitality

2.3

2.4

2.2

0.5

-0.3

-0.2

-0.4

-0.4

-0.3

-0.6

Information

-1.2

0.6

3.5

2.0

1.3

1.0

1.8

2.0

1.8

1.3

Federal Gov't.

-5.5

-1.6

-2.6

-2.7

-1.8

-1.0

-0.7

-0.6

-0.3

7.2

State & Local Gov't.

-0.7

-0.8

-0.2

0.4

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.3

1.0

Population and Migration Population (thous) (%Ch)

19085.2 19316.8 19582.1 19885.9 20221.4 20570.8 20929.4 21296.9 21667.9 22040.5 1.1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.8

1.7

1.7

Net Migration (thous)

44.5

48.8

56.1

64.3

69.5

71.5

73.3

74.8

74.8

74.7

(%Ch)

19.2

9.6

15.0

14.7

8.1

2.9

2.5

2.0

0.0

-0.1

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous)

43.6

57.7

82.7

116.1

154.1

179.4

194.0

194.1

193.0

191.0

Housing Starts Single Family (thous)

32.7

40.3

54.5

79.5

109.2

123.6

129.4

128.7

127.9

127.7

Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

10.9

17.4

28.2

36.7

44.9

55.8

64.6

65.5

65.1

63.3

3.1

1.6

1.3

2.4

1.5

1.7

1.7

1.5

Housing

Consumer Prices (%Ch) 12

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

2.0

1.7


F l o r i d a S u m m a r y Ta b l e s Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

1242.3

1304.5

1371.8

1442.4

1516.6

1594.8

Florida (%Ch)

4.7

5.0

5.2

5.1

5.1

5.2

U.S.(%Ch)

4.0

4.2

4.4

4.6

4.6

939.1

970.4

1002.5

1034.4

Florida (%Ch)

3.1

3.3

3.3

U.S.(%Ch)

5.1

5.5

5.1

837.7

864.4

Florida (%Ch)

2.9

U.S.(%Ch)

5.1 1216.9

2027

2028

2029

2030

1678.3

1763.6

1852.9

1945.6

5.2

5.1

5.1

5.0

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

1067.4

1101.4

1137.4

1172.7

1209.0

1245.2

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.3

3.1

3.1

3.0

4.7

4.5

4.3

4.5

4.5

4.4

4.6

891.1

917.6

946.0

973.7

1004.7

1034.7

1063.6

1093.4

3.2

3.1

3.0

3.1

2.9

3.2

3.0

2.8

2.8

5.5

5.1

4.7

4.5

4.3

4.5

4.5

4.4

4.6

1271.8

1333.4

1398.1

1467.5

1540.6

1616.0

1694.9

1779.2

1869.1

Personal Income and GSP Personal Income (Bil. $)

Personal Income (Bil. 2005$)

Disp. Income (Bil. 2005$)

GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch)

4.3

4.5

4.8

4.9

5.0

5.0

4.9

4.9

5.0

5.1

913.8

938.2

966.8

996.5

1028.1

1060.4

1092.9

1126.0

1160.7

1197.2

(%Ch)

2.5

2.7

3.0

3.1

3.2

3.1

3.1

3.0

3.1

3.2

Employment

1.3

1.3

1.5

1.5

1.4

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

Labor Force

1.3

1.3

1.4

1.4

1.3

1.4

1.4

1.5

1.5

1.5

FL Unemployment Rate (%)

5.9

5.9

5.8

5.7

5.6

5.5

5.5

5.4

5.3

5.2

U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

5.7

5.6

5.5

5.5

5.4

5.3

5.2

5.2

5.1

5.0

1.1

GSP (Bil. 2005$)

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change)

Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) Total Nonfarm U.S.

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.7

0.8

1.0

1.0

1.0

Florida

1.1

1.3

1.1

0.9

1.2

1.5

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.6

-2.1

-1.1

-1.0

-1.9

-2.0

-1.6

-1.4

-1.0

-0.5

-0.3

Mining Construction

1.5

1.3

1.8

2.2

2.7

3.0

2.6

2.1

1.9

2.0

Manufacturing

-0.5

-0.5

-1.0

-1.1

-1.3

-1.4

-1.3

-1.4

-1.3

-1.2

Nondurable Goods

-0.7

-0.9

-1.3

-1.4

-1.3

-1.2

-1.1

-1.1

-1.1

-1.2

Durable Goods

-0.4

-0.3

-0.9

-1.0

-1.2

-1.5

-1.4

-1.5

-1.4

-1.2

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

0.5

0.6

1.2

1.5

1.5

1.3

1.0

0.9

1.2

0.4

Wholesale Trade

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.9

0.4

0.5

0.3

-0.4

-0.2

-0.1

0.1

0.3

0.4

0.9

1.0

0.8

0.7

Financial Activities

0.4

0.7

0.8

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.3

1.6

1.6

1.6

Prof. and Business Services

4.8

4.9

3.6

2.2

3.1

3.6

3.2

3.3

3.7

3.5

Retail Trade

Edu & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't.

0.8

0.6

0.6

0.5

0.7

0.9

1.2

1.4

1.5

1.3

-0.6

-0.7

-0.6

-0.1

0.1

0.4

0.9

1.2

1.3

1.0

1.8

2.0

1.0

0.5

0.9

1.4

1.9

2.2

2.4

2.0

-4.3

0.5

1.6

2.2

2.1

2.0

1.9

1.9

1.8

7.8

1.0

1.3

1.2

1.0

1.0

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.8

Population and Migration Population (thous) (%Ch)

22414.9 22792.3 23174.4 23558.8 23945.0 24332.8 24722.7 25114.6 25507.2 25899.9 1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.5

74.8

75.4

76.1

76.3

76.4

76.5

76.6

76.7

76.8

76.9

0.2

0.8

1.0

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.2

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous)

185.6

182.5

184.1

191.3

195.7

198.9

198.3

196.5

195.1

195.4

Housing Starts Single Family (thous)

125.3

123.4

126.9

135.2

138.9

140.5

138.1

134.8

133.2

134.4

60.3

59.1

57.2

56.0

56.8

58.3

60.2

61.8

61.9

61.0

1.7

1.8

1.8

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.1

2.1

Net Migration (thous) (%Ch)

Housing

Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

Consumer Prices (%Ch)

2.0

2.0

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

13


F l o r i d a S u m m a r y Ta b l e s Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2046.0

2153.9

2262.4

2373.1

2490.1

2614.0

Florida (%Ch)

5.2

5.3

5.0

4.9

4.9

5.0

U.S.(%Ch)

4.5

4.4

4.3

4.4

4.5

1283.8

1325.3

1365.1

1403.7

Florida (%Ch)

3.1

3.2

3.0

U.S.(%Ch)

4.6

4.6

4.5

1126.3

1160.8

Florida (%Ch)

3.0

U.S.(%Ch)

4.6 1966.5

2037

2038

2039

2040

2740.3

2875.3

3014.8

3157.7

4.8

4.9

4.9

4.7

4.5

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.3

1444.0

1486.2

1527.5

1571.1

1614.7

1657.8

2.8

2.9

2.9

2.8

2.9

2.8

2.7

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.5

4.6

1193.6

1226.2

1260.0

1295.4

1330.1

1366.8

1403.5

1439.6

3.1

2.8

2.7

2.8

2.8

2.7

2.8

2.7

2.6

4.6

4.5

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.5

4.6

2068.8

2170.6

2275.4

2386.0

2503.2

2627.0

2756.4

2894.0

3039.3

Personal Income and GSP Personal Income (Bil. $)

Personal Income (Bil. 2005$)

Disp. Income (Bil. 2005$)

GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch)

5.2

5.2

4.9

4.8

4.9

4.9

4.9

4.9

5.0

5.0

1236.3

1276.6

1314.8

1352.6

1392.1

1433.8

1477.3

1521.6

1568.1

1616.8

(%Ch)

3.3

3.3

3.0

2.9

2.9

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.1

3.1

Employment

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.4

1.4

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.3

Labor Force

1.5

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.3

FL Unemployment Rate (%)

5.2

5.1

5.1

5.0

5.0

5.0

5.0

5.0

5.0

5.0

U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

5.0

4.9

4.9

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.7

0.9

GSP (Bil. 2005$)

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change)

Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) Total Nonfarm U.S.

0.8

0.8

0.7

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.9

0.9

0.9

Florida

1.8

1.9

1.5

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

0.0

0.2

-0.3

-0.8

-1.0

-0.8

-0.7

-0.8

-1.1

-1.4

Mining Construction

2.7

2.8

2.5

1.8

1.8

2.0

2.0

2.0

1.9

1.2

Manufacturing

-1.0

-1.1

-1.2

-1.1

-1.1

-1.0

-1.0

-0.9

-0.6

-0.6

Nondurable Goods

-1.1

-1.0

-1.0

-1.0

-1.0

-1.1

-1.0

-0.9

-0.9

-1.0

Durable Goods

-1.0

-1.1

-1.3

-1.1

-1.1

-0.9

-0.9

-0.8

-0.4

-0.5

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

0.5

0.2

0.1

-0.3

-0.5

-0.6

-0.8

-0.7

-0.7

-0.7

Wholesale Trade

0.4

0.3

0.1

-0.1

-0.1

0.0

-0.1

-0.2

-0.1

0.2

Retail Trade

0.8

0.7

0.7

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.7

Financial Activities

1.6

1.6

1.4

1.2

1.3

1.3

1.2

1.2

1.1

0.6

Prof. and Business Services

4.4

4.8

3.2

2.6

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.3

2.5

Edu & Health Services

1.2

1.2

0.9

0.7

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.8

0.7

0.8

Leisure & Hospitality

1.2

1.2

1.1

0.8

1.0

0.9

0.9

1.0

1.0

0.8

Information

2.0

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.3

2.4

2.4

-2.6

1.8

1.7

1.7

1.8

1.7

1.6

1.6

1.4

5.1

0.8

0.8

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't.

Population and Migration Population (thous) (%Ch)

26292.6 26685.2 27077.9 27470.6 27863.3 28256.3 28650.0 29044.9 29441.3 29839.1 1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.4

77.0

77.1

77.2

77.3

77.4

77.5

77.6

77.7

77.8

77.9

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.2

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous)

194.0

189.9

189.0

190.7

192.8

193.9

191.8

189.8

188.4

186.9

Housing Starts Single Family (thous)

133.8

130.0

129.9

132.3

135.1

136.9

135.9

134.5

133.4

132.1

60.3

59.9

59.1

58.3

57.8

57.0

55.9

55.3

55.0

54.8

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.1

2.2

2.2

2.2

Net Migration (thous) (%Ch)

Housing

Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

Consumer Prices (%Ch) 14

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

2.2

2.1


F l o r i d a S u m m a r y Ta b l e s Table 2. Quarterly Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida* 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4

Personal Income and GSP Personal Income (Bil. $)

768.9

777.3

787.6

797.2

805.0

813.3

821.4

830.1

843.1

852.3

863.2

874.6

888.2

900.5

913.1

926.2

Florida (%Ch)

3.2

3.2

4.1

4.7

4.7

4.6

4.3

4.1

4.7

4.8

5.1

5.4

5.4

5.7

5.8

5.9

U.S.(%Ch)

2.9

2.9

3.2

3.9

3.9

4.1

3.9

3.7

4.3

4.3

4.6

4.8

4.7

4.9

4.9

4.9

666.6

673.4

682.3

688.9

693.7

699.4

703.5

707.9

715.1

719.0

724.7

731.2

739.2

746.2

753.3

761.0

Personal Income (Bil. 2005$) Florida (%Ch)

0.9

1.6

3.1

3.7

4.1

3.9

3.1

2.8

3.1

2.8

3.0

3.3

3.4

3.8

4.0

4.1

U.S.(%Ch)

4.0

4.0

5.1

5.6

5.4

5.6

5.1

4.9

5.2

5.9

6.4

6.9

6.8

6.4

5.8

5.1

607.2

612.8

619.7

624.3

626.0

629.2

632.6

636.8

642.1

646.2

651.5

657.6

662.8

669.6

676.6

683.6

Florida(%Ch)

Disp. Income (Bil. 2005$)

0.7

1.3

2.6

3.1

3.1

2.7

2.1

2.0

2.6

2.7

3.0

3.3

3.2

3.6

3.9

4.0

U.S.(%Ch)

4.0

4.0

5.1

5.6

5.4

5.6

5.1

4.9

5.2

5.9

6.4

6.9

6.8

6.4

5.8

5.1

781.2

788.4

797.3

806.6

814.8

821.2

829.3

837.8

847.5

858.4

870.4

883.5

896.6

909.3

922.2

935.1

GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch)

3.6

3.4

3.6

3.6

4.3

4.2

4.0

3.9

4.0

4.5

4.9

5.4

5.8

5.9

6.0

5.9

688.1

692.6

697.1

702.6

707.0

711.0

714.8

719.2

723.9

729.8

736.5

744.1

751.1

758.0

765.2

772.4

(%Ch)

1.6

1.7

2.2

2.0

2.8

2.6

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.6

3.0

3.5

3.8

3.9

3.9

3.8

Employment

2.5

3.2

3.3

2.9

2.4

1.6

1.5

1.3

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.4

1.5

1.7

1.9

2.0

Labor Force

0.9

0.9

1.1

1.1

1.3

1.4

1.3

1.2

1.2

1.1

1.1

1.0

1.0

1.1

1.3

1.3

GSP (Bil. 2005$)

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change)

FL Unemployment Rate (%)

9.3

8.6

8.5

8.4

8.4

8.4

8.4

8.4

8.3

8.3

8.1

8.0

7.9

7.7

7.6

7.4

U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

8.3

8.2

8.1

8.0

7.9

7.9

7.9

7.9

7.8

7.7

7.6

7.4

7.3

7.1

7.0

6.9

Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) Total Nonfarm U.S.

1.5

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.6

Florida

1.1

0.9

1.3

1.2

1.8

1.9

1.9

1.8

1.6

1.7

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.4

2.5

Mining

-1.7

-1.2

0.8

1.8

1.1

0.3

-0.6

-1.5

-2.6

-3.4

-3.6

-3.3

-2.6

-1.9

-1.4

-1.0

Construction

-5.0

-4.5

-1.2

-1.0

0.9

2.9

4.5

6.5

8.3

9.8

11.1

12.3

13.5

14.4

14.8

14.4

Manufacturing Nondurable Goods

1.2

1.2

1.6

1.3

1.3

2.4

2.7

3.2

3.4

2.8

2.6

2.4

2.2

1.8

1.4

1.0

-0.3

0.2

1.2

0.7

0.5

0.0

-0.2

-0.3

-0.3

-0.6

-0.8

-0.9

-1.0

-1.0

-1.1

-1.1

Durable Goods

2.0

1.7

1.9

1.7

1.6

3.6

4.2

4.9

5.2

4.5

4.2

4.0

3.7

3.2

2.6

2.0

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

3.2

2.2

3.2

2.7

2.4

3.4

3.6

3.6

3.2

3.0

2.9

2.9

3.2

3.3

3.4

3.5

Wholesale Trade

0.2

0.8

1.2

1.7

3.2

2.8

2.8

2.4

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.4

2.7

2.9

2.9

2.9

Retail Trade

2.6

1.9

1.3

0.6

1.0

0.9

0.9

0.5

0.1

0.0

-0.2

0.1

0.4

0.8

1.1

1.4

Financial Activities

1.1

1.6

2.0

1.7

2.0

1.6

1.3

0.9

0.3

0.0

-0.1

-0.1

0.1

0.3

0.4

0.4

Prof. and Business Services

2.3

1.5

1.9

2.2

4.0

4.7

4.8

4.0

3.2

3.5

4.4

5.4

6.1

6.1

5.6

5.2

Edu & Health Services

2.1

1.8

1.5

1.0

1.5

1.5

1.1

1.0

1.6

1.9

1.8

2.0

1.7

1.9

2.1

2.3

Leisure & Hospitality

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.9

2.9

2.5

1.9

1.5

1.1

0.6

0.3

-0.2

-0.4

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

Information

-0.6

-0.3

0.4

2.8

2.6

4.0

4.5

2.8

2.9

2.2

1.4

1.4

1.3

1.0

1.5

1.4

Federal Gov't.

-0.8

-1.3

-2.1

-2.2

-2.3

-2.7

-2.8

-2.8

-2.8

-2.8

-2.6

-2.5

-2.2

-1.9

-1.7

-1.4

State & Local Gov't.

-1.4

-0.9

-0.2

-0.7

-0.2

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

0.9

Population and Migration Population (thous) (%Ch)

19225.0 19284.6 19346.9 19410.8 19477.0 19545.5 19616.3 19689.6 19765.5 19844.1 19925.5 20008.5 20092.6 20177.9 20264.1 20351.1

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.3

1.3

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.5

1.5

1.6

1.6

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

45.8

48.0

50.2

51.4

53.3

55.2

57.0

59.1

61.2

63.4

65.6

67.2

68.2

69.2

70.0

70.6

3.2

7.7

12.5

15.1

16.4

15.1

13.5

14.9

14.8

14.9

15.2

13.7

11.5

9.2

6.6

5.2

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous)

53.0

53.5

59.0

65.4

71.0

78.7

86.5

94.4

101.6

110.7

120.9

131.3

141.3

151.0

159.0

165.2

Housing Starts Single Family (thous)

37.5

39.3

41.3

43.1

46.1

51.8

57.2

62.8

67.7

75.2

83.5

91.4

99.2

107.0

113.3

117.4

Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

15.5

14.2

17.7

22.4

25.0

26.9

29.4

31.6

33.9

35.5

37.4

39.9

42.1

44.0

45.7

47.8

2.8

1.6

0.9

1.2

0.8

1.0

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.2

2.0

1.9

1.9

Net Migration (thous) (%Ch)

Housing

Consumer Prices (%Ch)

1.6

1.8

2.1

*Quarterly at an annual rate Institute for Economic Competitiveness

15


F l o r i d a S u m m a r y Ta b l e s Table 3. Employment Quarterly* 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm Manufacturing Durable Goods Wood Products Computer & Electronics Transportation Equipment Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

7314.6 7335.3 7366.7 7408.5 7446.8 7478.2 7509.8 7539.4 7569.5 7604.1 7645.2 7692.8 7737.4 7783.1 7830.8 7881.6 314.6

314.5

316.2

317.1

318.6

322.1

324.8

327.2

329.3

331.2

333.2

335.1

336.4

337.3

337.9

338.6

209.0

208.3

209.8

210.8

212.4

215.9

218.6

221.2

223.4

225.6

227.9

230.1

231.6

232.8

233.7

234.6

8.8

8.9

9.1

9.5

9.9

10.3

10.7

11.2

11.7

12.2

12.8

13.3

13.7

14.0

14.2

14.4

43.1

42.5

42.4

42.1

42.7

42.8

42.6

42.4

42.4

42.4

42.6

42.8

42.9

42.9

42.9

42.9

34.4

34.6

34.8

35.0

35.4

36.0

36.6

37.0

37.4

37.7

38.0

38.1

38.1

38.1

38.1

38.1

105.6

106.2

106.3

106.3

106.2

106.2

106.1

106.0

105.9

105.6

105.3

105.0

104.8

104.5

104.2

103.9

28.8

29.4

29.5

29.5

29.5

29.6

29.7

29.7

29.7

29.8

29.8

29.8

29.8

29.8

29.7

29.7

7000.0 7020.7 7050.5 7091.4 7128.2 7156.1 7185.0 7212.2 7240.3 7272.9 7312.0 7357.7 7401.0 7445.7 7492.9 7543.0 5.6

5.6

5.7

5.7

5.7

5.7

5.6

5.6

5.5

5.5

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.3

5.3

Construction

321.3

319.4

319.9

321.5

324.2

328.6

334.4

342.5

351.2

360.8

371.4

384.6

398.6

412.6

426.4

439.9

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

236.2

236.2

237.7

239.5

241.9

244.1

246.2

248.2

249.7

251.4

253.3

255.4

257.6

259.8

262.0

264.3

Wholesale Trade

308.0

310.6

312.6

315.2

317.7

319.2

321.5

322.9

324.3

326.0

328.3

330.7

333.2

335.4

337.7

340.2

Retail Trade

968.6

969.6

972.2

976.4

978.0

978.6

981.4

981.8

979.2

978.4

979.7

982.3

983.3

985.9

990.1

995.8

134.3

134.1

134.2

136.5

137.8

139.5

140.2

140.4

141.8

142.6

142.2

142.3

143.6

144.0

144.3

144.3

Information Prof. & Bus. Services

1063.0 1066.8 1074.0 1089.5 1105.8 1116.9 1125.8 1133.2 1140.6 1155.8 1175.3 1194.9 1210.6 1226.2 1241.5 1257.0

Admin. & Support

528.4

529.7

533.3

544.6

555.0

561.3

564.8

565.1

570.6

581.9

597.7

613.4

628.6

642.0

655.9

670.0

Prof. Sci & Tech

451.7

453.8

457.3

461.4

467.3

472.2

477.6

484.5

486.3

490.0

493.5

497.4

497.8

499.8

501.0

502.5

82.9

83.3

83.4

83.5

83.5

83.5

83.5

83.6

83.8

83.9

84.0

84.1

84.3

84.4

84.5

84.6

Financial Activities

Mgmt. of Co.

487.1

489.9

491.9

494.3

496.7

497.5

498.4

498.9

498.1

497.6

498.1

498.4

498.8

499.2

500.0

500.5

Real Estate & Rent

153.0

154.3

155.4

156.3

156.9

157.5

158.2

158.9

159.5

160.2

161.0

161.8

162.3

162.8

163.4

164.0

334.2

335.6

336.5

338.0

339.8

340.0

340.1

339.9

338.6

337.5

337.1

336.6

336.5

336.4

336.6

336.5

Fin. & Insurance Edu. & Health Service

1116.4 1119.6 1127.3 1132.2 1133.4 1136.1 1140.2 1143.6 1151.7 1157.2 1161.1 1166.6 1171.7 1178.8 1185.7 1193.2

Education Services

154.1

154.7

154.1

153.5

153.5

153.2

152.8

152.2

Health Services

962.3

964.9

973.2

978.6

979.9

982.9

987.4

991.4 1000.3 1006.5 1011.2 1017.3 1022.9 1030.6 1038.1 1046.1

151.4

150.6

149.9

149.3

148.8

148.2

147.6

147.1

Leisure & Hospitality

963.6

971.3

979.0

985.6

991.5

995.1

997.2 1000.6 1002.5 1001.6

999.9

998.9

998.7

997.2

996.5

997.0

Other Services

307.4

308.7

309.6

310.8

312.3

312.9

313.7

315.8

315.2

315.1

315.1

315.1

315.2

Government

314.4

315.0

315.4

1088.5 1088.9 1086.3 1084.2 1083.2 1081.9 1080.4 1080.3 1080.6 1080.7 1081.5 1083.0 1084.3 1086.2 1088.3 1090.2

Federal Gov't.

132.6

132.2

131.4

130.4

129.6

128.6

127.7

126.8

125.9

125.1

124.3

123.6

123.1

122.6

122.3

121.9

State & Local Gov't

955.8

956.7

955.0

953.7

953.6

953.2

952.7

953.5

954.7

955.6

957.2

959.4

961.2

963.6

966.1

968.4

*Quarterly at an annual rate

16

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012


F l o r i d a S u m m a r y Ta b l e s Table 4. Employment Annual 2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

7161.1

7241.0

7489.5

7790.7

7994.9

8019.7

7736.1

7249.3

7192.9

Manufacturing

428.1

409.8

410.6

415.4

416.5

399.1

371.1

323.9

309.0

283.5

270.0

273.7

280.9

284.7

269.3

249.3

214.4

203.6

Wood Products

18.1

17.8

20.3

22.4

21.6

17.0

12.8

9.1

8.4

Computer & Electronics

59.7

53.4

52.5

51.3

50.1

49.2

48.0

44.6

42.9

Transportation Equipment

44.9

43.7

44.3

45.6

45.7

44.6

42.5

34.9

33.8

144.5

139.8

136.9

134.5

131.8

129.8

121.7

109.5

105.5

36.3

35.2

33.9

32.8

31.4

31.7

29.7

27.9

27.5

6733.0

6831.2

7078.9

7375.3

7578.4

7620.7

7365.0

6925.4

6883.9

7.2

7.1

7.1

7.1

6.6

6.7

6.2

5.5

5.4

Construction

504.7

524.0

572.7

637.4

682.1

622.8

515.8

396.6

350.7

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

242.4

234.6

238.4

247.4

250.9

251.1

245.9

229.4

224.7

Wholesale Trade

315.8

317.4

327.9

341.3

351.3

356.7

345.7

317.9

308.7

Retail Trade

931.6

928.6

954.2

993.8

1013.8

1027.0

997.4

931.6

933.8

Information

172.7

166.2

162.9

163.3

161.8

161.3

155.8

142.4

135.7

Prof. & Bus. Services

959.4

974.4

1033.5

1109.5

1158.4

1166.1

1092.8

1002.6

1015.7

Admin. & Support

511.5

517.7

554.8

600.8

627.4

624.7

553.5

491.8

504.6

Prof. Sci & Tech

377.0

384.9

403.8

431.1

451.6

460.3

456.5

430.9

432.1

71.0

71.8

74.9

77.6

79.3

81.0

82.8

79.9

79.1

Financial Activities

483.2

493.8

512.6

538.0

554.8

549.2

524.1

485.4

476.1

Real Estate & Rent

154.5

157.7

166.5

176.7

182.5

178.1

169.9

154.9

150.3

Fin. & Insurance

328.7

336.1

346.1

361.3

372.2

371.1

354.2

330.5

325.8

Edu. & Health Service

887.9

920.7

947.4

970.6

996.4

1027.1

1048.5

1061.1

1081.1

Education Services

103.1

111.6

120.3

126.3

129.9

135.7

139.6

144.6

151.5

Health Services

784.8

809.1

827.1

844.4

866.5

891.4

908.9

916.5

929.6

Leisure & Hospitality

874.1

889.3

926.4

950.8

964.9

983.9

970.5

926.6

931.0

Other Services

315.4

322.2

329.3

334.9

338.1

345.7

335.6

312.5

309.2

1038.7

1052.8

1066.5

1081.2

1099.4

1123.2

1126.9

1113.9

1111.7

Federal Gov't.

122.3

126.3

126.8

128.7

127.8

128.0

129.8

132.6

142.2

State & Local Gov't

916.4

926.4

939.7

952.6

971.6

995.2

997.1

981.3

969.5

Durable Goods

Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

Mgmt. of Co.

Government

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

17


F l o r i d a S u m m a r y Ta b l e s Table 4. Employment Annual 2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

7274.3

7356.3

7493.5

7627.9

7808.2

7992.4

8157.5

8289.1

8396.1

8496.9

Manufacturing

311.4

315.6

323.2

332.2

337.6

338.4

336.8

335.2

333.3

331.9

205.8

209.5

217.0

226.8

233.2

235.1

234.2

233.2

232.1

231.4

8.7

9.1

10.5

12.5

14.1

14.5

14.4

14.5

14.6

14.6

Computer & Electronics

43.1

42.6

42.6

42.5

42.9

43.1

43.6

44.0

44.0

44.5

Transportation Equipment

34.2

34.7

36.3

37.8

38.1

37.4

36.1

35.1

34.3

33.4

105.6

106.1

106.1

105.4

104.4

103.3

102.6

102.0

101.2

100.5

28.6

29.3

29.6

29.8

29.7

29.6

29.5

29.5

29.6

29.7

6962.9

7040.7

7170.4

7295.7

7470.7

7654.1

7820.8

7953.9

8062.8

8165.0

5.6

5.6

5.6

5.5

5.4

5.3

5.2

5.1

4.9

4.8

Construction

330.2

320.5

332.4

367.0

419.4

466.9

500.0

521.1

531.2

538.1

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

230.9

237.4

245.1

252.4

260.9

270.3

280.0

286.3

288.3

288.5

Wholesale Trade

308.5

311.6

320.3

327.3

336.6

345.7

355.3

362.5

367.3

371.8

Retail Trade

956.5

971.7

980.0

979.9

988.8

1003.9

1013.0

1017.6

1021.1

1021.3

Information

134.0

134.8

139.5

142.2

144.1

145.5

148.2

151.1

153.9

156.0

Prof. & Bus. Services

1052.6

1073.3

1120.4

1166.7

1233.8

1289.6

1346.9

1398.5

1447.8

1500.1

Admin. & Support

526.0

534.0

561.5

590.9

649.1

701.2

758.6

808.4

846.7

881.8

Prof. Sci & Tech

445.4

456.0

475.4

491.8

500.3

503.5

503.2

504.5

515.4

531.7

81.2

83.3

83.5

83.9

84.5

84.9

85.1

85.6

85.7

86.6

Financial Activities

482.9

490.8

497.9

498.1

499.6

502.2

508.5

514.3

518.7

521.7

Real Estate & Rent

151.8

154.7

157.9

160.6

163.1

165.3

167.4

169.3

170.6

171.5

Fin. & Insurance

331.1

336.1

340.0

337.5

336.5

336.9

341.1

345.0

348.0

350.2

1105.9

1123.9

1138.3

1159.2

1182.3

1217.5

1247.1

1270.0

1291.0

1311.1

Education Services

154.1

154.1

152.9

150.3

147.9

146.1

144.8

143.4

141.8

140.0

Health Services

951.8

969.8

985.4

1008.8

1034.4

1071.3

1102.4

1126.6

1149.2

1171.1

Leisure & Hospitality

952.3

974.9

996.1

1000.7

997.4

994.9

991.1

986.9

984.1

977.7

Other Services

306.5

309.1

313.3

315.4

315.1

316.4

318.7

320.4

321.6

322.5

1096.9

1087.0

1081.4

1081.4

1087.3

1095.9

1106.7

1120.1

1132.9

1151.2

Federal Gov't.

133.8

131.7

128.2

124.7

122.5

121.2

120.4

119.6

119.3

127.8

State & Local Gov't

963.1

955.3

953.2

956.7

964.8

974.7

986.4

1000.4

1013.6

1023.4

Durable Goods Wood Products

Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

Mgmt. of Co.

Edu. & Health Service

Government

18

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012


F l o r i d a S u m m a r y Ta b l e s Table 4. Employment Annual 2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

8590.4

8699.4

8795.3

8875.0

8983.6

9115.3

9254.9

9400.1

9558.5

9714.3

Manufacturing

330.2

328.6

325.3

321.8

317.7

313.2

309.1

304.9

301.1

297.6

230.4

229.6

227.7

225.4

222.7

219.3

216.3

213.1

210.2

207.8

Wood Products

14.4

14.2

14.1

14.3

14.5

14.5

14.4

14.3

14.0

13.9

Computer & Electronics

44.5

44.4

44.0

43.4

42.9

42.4

42.0

41.7

41.6

41.5

Transportation Equipment

32.8

32.4

32.0

31.6

31.0

30.5

29.9

29.4

28.8

28.3

Nondurables

99.8

99.0

97.7

96.3

95.1

93.9

92.8

91.8

90.8

89.7

29.7

29.6

29.4

29.3

29.2

29.0

28.9

28.7

28.5

28.4

8260.1

8370.8

8469.9

8553.2

8665.9

8802.1

8945.8

9095.2

9257.5

9416.7

4.7

4.7

4.6

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.3

4.3

4.2

4.2

Construction

546.3

553.7

563.7

575.9

591.5

609.0

625.1

638.1

650.0

662.9

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

290.0

291.8

295.3

299.7

304.1

308.2

311.3

314.1

317.8

319.1

Wholesale Trade

375.0

378.5

382.0

385.1

388.3

391.5

395.2

396.8

398.9

400.1

Retail Trade

1017.7

1015.9

1014.8

1015.4

1018.3

1022.8

1032.0

1042.5

1051.3

1058.6

Information

158.7

161.9

163.5

164.3

165.7

168.0

171.1

174.9

179.1

182.7

Prof. & Bus. Services

1572.1

1649.9

1708.9

1745.8

1799.8

1865.1

1925.1

1987.8

2060.6

2132.5

Admin. & Support

928.6

977.8

1005.8

1008.9

1029.6

1062.5

1090.0

1121.3

1164.1

1208.3

Prof. Sci & Tech

556.1

584.2

614.9

648.4

681.5

713.9

746.3

777.9

808.1

835.8

87.4

87.9

88.2

88.4

88.6

88.7

88.7

88.5

88.4

88.4

Financial Activities

524.0

527.9

532.0

536.4

541.8

548.1

555.5

564.3

573.6

582.5

Real Estate & Rent

172.4

173.4

174.4

175.5

176.6

177.8

179.1

180.5

181.9

183.3

Fin. & Insurance

351.6

354.5

357.6

360.9

365.2

370.2

376.4

383.8

391.7

399.2

1321.5

1329.4

1337.9

1344.5

1353.4

1366.2

1382.8

1401.9

1422.7

1441.1

138.5

137.4

136.1

134.4

134.5

135.7

137.2

138.8

140.8

142.9

1183.0

1191.9

1201.8

1210.0

1218.9

1230.4

1245.6

1263.1

1281.9

1298.2

Leisure & Hospitality

971.7

964.9

959.3

958.6

959.2

963.3

972.3

983.5

996.2

1006.5

Other Services

323.1

323.4

324.8

326.8

330.0

333.3

336.5

340.2

344.1

348.0

1155.2

1168.9

1183.1

1196.4

1209.5

1222.3

1234.9

1246.9

1259.0

1278.6

121.7

122.2

124.2

126.9

129.6

132.2

134.8

137.3

139.8

150.7

1033.5

1046.7

1059.0

1069.5

1079.9

1090.1

1100.1

1109.6

1119.3

1127.9

Durable Goods

Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

Mgmt. of Co.

Edu. & Health Service Education Services Health Services

Government Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

19


F l o r i d a S u m m a r y Ta b l e s Table 4. Employment Annual 2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm Manufacturing

294.5

291.3

287.9

284.8

281.7

279.0

276.3

274.0

272.4

270.7

205.7

203.5

201.0

198.8

196.6

194.8

193.0

191.4

190.6

189.7

Wood Products

13.8

13.8

13.8

13.8

13.9

13.9

14.0

14.0

14.0

14.0

Computer & Electronics

41.6

41.7

41.9

42.2

42.5

42.7

43.0

43.4

43.8

44.2

Transportation Equipment

27.7

26.9

26.2

25.6

25.0

24.5

23.9

23.4

22.8

22.3

Nondurables

88.7

87.8

86.9

86.0

85.1

84.2

83.4

82.6

81.8

81.0

28.2

28.0

27.9

27.7

27.5

27.3

27.1

26.9

26.7

26.5

9590.2

9783.2

4.2

4.2

4.2

4.2

4.1

4.1

4.1

4.0

4.0

3.9

Construction

681.0

700.2

717.5

730.3

743.8

758.9

774.3

789.4

804.2

813.7

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

320.6

321.3

321.6

320.6

319.0

317.2

314.8

312.6

310.4

308.2

Wholesale Trade

401.9

403.1

403.6

403.2

402.9

402.7

402.1

401.4

401.0

401.8

Retail Trade

1067.2

1075.0

1082.4

1088.3

1094.3

1101.0

1108.4

1117.2

1126.1

1133.7

Information

186.4

190.3

194.2

198.4

203.1

207.9

212.8

217.7

223.0

228.3

Prof. & Bus. Services

2225.5

2332.3

2407.9

2469.4

2530.2

2591.9

2653.1

2713.3

2776.1

2845.4

Admin. & Support

1272.8

1351.6

1400.6

1434.5

1467.9

1502.3

1536.9

1571.1

1608.3

1645.5

Prof. Sci & Tech

864.3

892.2

918.8

946.4

973.8

1000.9

1027.5

1053.6

1079.0

1111.1

88.4

88.4

88.4

88.5

88.5

88.6

88.6

88.7

88.8

88.7

Financial Activities

591.9

601.1

609.5

617.0

625.0

633.4

640.8

648.2

655.2

659.4

Real Estate & Rent

184.8

186.2

187.6

188.8

190.2

191.6

192.9

194.2

195.5

196.6

Fin. & Insurance

407.1

414.9

422.0

428.1

434.8

441.8

447.9

454.0

459.7

462.8

1459.0

1477.2

1491.1

1501.0

1510.6

1521.6

1532.2

1544.2

1555.5

1568.1

145.0

147.4

149.4

150.8

152.3

153.8

155.5

157.2

158.9

160.0

Health Services

1314.0

1329.8

1341.7

1350.2

1358.3

1367.8

1376.7

1387.1

1396.6

1408.1

Leisure & Hospitality

1018.5

1031.0

1041.9

1050.5

1060.6

1070.5

1079.8

1090.2

1100.9

1109.7

351.0

353.2

355.7

357.8

359.9

362.3

364.2

365.9

367.7

369.1

1283.0

1294.4

1304.8

1315.2

1325.5

1336.3

1346.9

1357.3

1367.8

1384.3

146.3

148.9

151.4

154.0

156.7

159.4

162.0

164.5

166.9

175.3

1136.7

1145.5

1153.4

1161.2

1168.8

1176.9

1184.9

1192.8

1200.9

1209.0

Durable Goods

Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

Mgmt. of Co.

Edu. & Health Service Education Services

Other Services Government Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't

20

9884.7 10074.5 10222.2 10340.7 10460.8 10586.8 10709.8 10835.4 10964.4 11096.4

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

9934.3 10055.9 10179.1 10307.9 10433.5 10561.4 10692.0 10825.6


F l o r i d a S u m m a r y Ta b l e s Table 5. Personal Income-Quarterly* 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4

Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

768.9

777.3

787.6

797.2

805.0

813.3

821.4

830.1

843.1

852.3

863.2

874.6

888.2

900.5

913.1

926.2

Wages & Salaries

346.7

349.6

353.5

358.0

361.9

365.4

369.0

372.8

377.0

381.3

386.0

391.1

396.4

401.6

406.8

412.1

Other Labor Income

79.0

79.8

80.4

81.4

82.7

83.5

84.3

85.3

86.8

88.0

89.0

90.4

91.9

93.4

95.0

96.6

Nonfarm

43.8

44.3

45.0

45.8

46.4

47.0

47.6

48.3

49.0

50.0

50.8

51.7

52.6

53.5

54.1

54.8

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

Property Income

Farm

190.9

194.8

199.1

202.0

204.6

206.8

208.6

210.8

213.0

215.0

218.3

221.6

225.8

229.9

234.3

239.0

Transfer Payments

154.0

155.1

156.3

157.3

158.9

160.8

162.4

164.1

170.4

172.1

173.6

175.2

180.6

182.1

183.6

185.4

Social Insurance

48.2

48.8

49.4

50.1

52.3

52.9

53.4

54.0

56.1

56.9

57.5

58.2

62.1

63.0

63.8

64.8

Personal Income

666.6

673.4

682.3

688.9

693.7

699.4

703.5

707.9

715.1

719.0

724.7

731.2

739.2

746.2

753.3

761.0

Wages & Salaries

300.6

302.8

306.3

309.4

311.9

314.2

316.1

317.9

319.8

321.7

324.0

327.0

329.9

332.8

335.7

338.6

Billions 2005 $

Other Labor Income

68.5

69.1

69.6

70.3

71.3

71.8

72.2

72.8

73.6

74.2

74.8

75.5

76.5

77.4

78.4

79.4

Nonfarm

37.9

38.4

39.0

39.6

39.9

40.4

40.7

41.2

41.6

42.2

42.7

43.3

43.7

44.3

44.7

45.0

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

Property Income

Farm

165.5

168.7

172.4

174.6

176.3

177.8

178.6

179.8

180.7

181.3

183.2

185.2

187.9

190.5

193.3

196.4

Transfer Payments

133.5

134.4

135.4

135.9

137.0

138.2

139.1

139.9

144.6

145.2

145.8

146.4

150.3

150.9

151.5

152.3

41.8

42.3

42.8

43.3

45.1

45.5

45.7

46.1

47.6

48.0

48.3

48.7

51.7

52.2

52.6

53.2

Social Insurance

New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations 1022.8 1015.5 1043.6 1072.3 1106.4 1145.2 1179.4 1196.6 1222.6 1249.9 1276.9 1301.0 1316.8 1333.0 1345.7 1359.9 Retail Sales (Billions $)

274.5

276.2

279.1

282.3

284.8

286.9

290.1

292.7

295.5

298.4

301.7

304.9

308.0

311.5

315.2

319.3

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2005$)

238.0

239.3

241.8

244.0

245.4

246.7

248.4

249.6

250.6

251.8

253.3

254.9

256.4

258.1

260.1

262.4

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

21


F l o r i d a S u m m a r y Ta b l e s Table 6. Personal Income-Annual 2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

508.4

531.2

582.8

633.2

690.3

721.1

740.7

697.3

719.8

Wages & Salaries

250.9

264.5

285.6

310.3

333.1

344.7

339.8

322.3

325.5

Other Labor Income

53.3

59.2

63.3

69.5

72.9

73.1

74.4

74.2

75.1

Nonfarm

34.8

36.3

39.6

42.0

45.1

43.7

41.0

37.3

41.0

1.3

1.1

1.0

1.5

1.2

0.9

0.6

0.7

0.7

123.8

122.8

142.7

156.4

181.7

196.5

211.2

172.0

176.5

Transfer Payments

79.8

84.9

91.3

98.1

104.4

111.2

122.5

138.2

149.1

Social Insurance

37.2

39.0

42.3

46.2

49.9

50.9

50.8

49.2

50.1

Farm Property Income

Billions 2005 $ Personal Income

548.0

561.2

600.0

633.1

671.9

683.5

679.9

638.8

647.8

Wages & Salaries

270.4

279.4

294.0

310.3

324.3

326.7

311.9

295.2

293.0

Other Labor Income

57.5

62.5

65.2

69.5

71.0

69.3

68.3

67.9

67.6

Nonfarm

37.5

38.4

40.7

42.0

43.9

41.4

37.6

34.2

36.9

1.4

1.2

1.0

1.5

1.2

0.8

0.6

0.7

0.6

133.5

129.7

146.9

156.3

176.8

186.3

193.9

157.6

158.8

Transfer Payments

86.0

89.7

94.0

98.1

101.6

105.4

112.4

126.5

134.2

Social Insurance

40.1

41.2

43.6

46.2

48.6

48.3

46.6

45.1

45.1

1302.6

1397.3

1442.7

1449.7

1416.7

1242.2

952.0

694.8

848.7

Retail Sales (Billions $)

196.6

206.4

223.3

241.5

257.7

262.3

255.6

232.3

244.4

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2005$)

211.9

218.0

229.9

241.4

250.8

248.7

234.6

212.8

220.0

Farm Property Income

New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations

22

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012


F l o r i d a S u m m a r y Ta b l e s Table 6. Personal Income-Annual 2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

754.0

782.7

817.4

858.3

907.0

963.2

1018.1

1074.3

1130.8

1186.3

Wages & Salaries

337.9

352.0

367.3

383.8

404.2

425.2

447.0

468.5

489.9

511.2

Other Labor Income

77.2

80.1

84.0

88.5

94.2

100.6

107.3

114.1

120.5

126.7

Nonfarm

42.7

44.7

47.3

50.4

53.7

56.4

59.2

62.7

66.4

70.1

0.6

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.9

0.9

0.9

Property Income

186.7

196.7

207.7

217.0

232.3

251.8

269.3

285.0

300.2

314.2

Transfer Payments

153.5

155.7

161.6

172.8

182.9

195.1

207.6

220.8

235.0

249.7

46.6

49.1

53.2

57.2

63.4

69.2

75.7

80.4

84.9

89.5

Farm

Social Insurance

Billions 2005 $ Personal Income

662.3

677.8

701.1

722.5

749.9

783.9

816.7

848.9

881.0

911.2

Wages & Salaries

296.8

304.8

315.0

323.1

334.2

346.1

358.5

370.2

381.7

392.6

Other Labor Income

67.8

69.4

72.0

74.5

77.9

81.9

86.1

90.2

93.9

97.3

Nonfarm

37.5

38.7

40.6

42.4

44.4

45.9

47.5

49.5

51.7

53.9

0.5

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

Property Income

163.9

170.3

178.1

182.6

192.0

205.0

216.0

225.2

233.9

241.3

Transfer Payments

134.9

134.8

138.6

145.5

151.2

158.8

166.5

174.5

183.1

191.8

41.0

42.5

45.6

48.1

52.4

56.3

60.7

63.5

66.1

68.8

New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations

901.0

1038.5

1156.9

1262.6

1338.9

1388.2

1396.5

1373.5

1403.7

1433.8

Retail Sales (Billions $)

263.2

278.0

288.6

300.1

313.5

328.7

342.7

356.4

370.4

385.0

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2005$)

231.1

240.8

247.5

252.6

259.2

267.6

274.9

281.6

288.6

295.7

Farm

Social Insurance

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

23


F l o r i d a S u m m a r y Ta b l e s Table 6. Personal Income-Annual 2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

1242.3

1304.5

1371.8

1442.4

1516.6

1594.8

1678.3

1763.6

1852.9

1945.6

Wages & Salaries

533.4

557.3

582.1

607.2

635.5

667.1

700.6

736.2

774.9

814.6

Other Labor Income

132.8

139.1

145.3

151.3

157.5

164.3

171.6

179.0

187.0

195.3

74.0

78.8

83.8

88.3

92.9

97.3

102.2

107.4

112.9

118.7

0.9

0.8

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

Property Income

327.8

343.4

361.5

382.2

402.0

420.5

440.4

459.3

478.3

498.5

Transfer Payments

264.5

281.0

298.8

318.0

338.5

361.1

385.3

410.0

434.9

460.5

94.3

99.2

103.7

108.8

114.1

119.9

126.3

132.9

139.8

147.0

Nonfarm Farm

Social Insurance

Billions 2005 $ Personal Income

939.1

970.4

1002.5

1034.4

1067.4

1101.4

1137.4

1172.7

1209.0

1245.2

Wages & Salaries

403.2

414.5

425.4

435.4

447.3

460.7

474.8

489.5

505.6

521.4

Other Labor Income

100.4

103.5

106.2

108.5

110.8

113.5

116.3

119.0

122.0

125.0

56.0

58.6

61.2

63.3

65.3

67.2

69.3

71.4

73.7

76.0

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.5

0.5

Property Income

247.8

255.5

264.2

274.1

282.9

290.4

298.5

305.4

312.1

319.1

Transfer Payments

200.0

209.0

218.3

228.0

238.2

249.4

261.1

272.6

283.8

294.7

71.3

73.8

75.8

78.0

80.3

82.8

85.6

88.4

91.2

94.1

1461.0

1476.0

1491.5

1516.6

1542.4

1564.3

1585.0

1604.6

1616.4

1639.0

Retail Sales (Billions $)

401.0

418.5

438.0

459.1

482.1

506.0

531.3

557.6

584.1

612.8

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2005$)

303.1

311.3

320.1

329.3

339.3

349.4

360.1

370.8

381.1

392.2

Nonfarm Farm

Social Insurance New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations

24

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012


F l o r i d a S u m m a r y Ta b l e s Table 6. Personal Income-Annual 2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

2046.0

2153.9

2262.4

2373.1

2490.1

2614.0

2740.3

2875.3

3014.8

3157.7

Wages & Salaries

858.8

905.7

950.0

993.1

1037.8

1085.1

1133.8

1184.7

1237.8

1293.2

Other Labor Income

204.1

214.4

224.2

233.5

242.9

252.8

263.6

275.3

287.3

299.7

Nonfarm

125.0

131.5

138.5

145.9

154.1

162.7

171.6

180.9

190.5

200.5

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

Property Income

520.4

543.9

568.7

595.8

626.3

659.3

690.6

725.5

760.9

795.8

Transfer Payments

487.2

515.7

546.3

578.1

610.9

645.2

681.2

719.8

760.1

801.5

Social Insurance

154.6

162.6

170.8

179.2

188.1

197.5

207.1

217.8

229.0

240.4

Farm

Billions 2005 $ Personal Income

1283.8

1325.3

1365.1

1403.7

1444.0

1486.2

1527.5

1571.1

1614.7

1657.8

Wages & Salaries

538.9

557.3

573.2

587.4

601.8

616.9

632.0

647.4

662.9

678.9

Other Labor Income

128.1

131.9

135.3

138.1

140.9

143.7

146.9

150.4

153.9

157.3

78.4

80.9

83.5

86.3

89.4

92.5

95.6

98.8

102.0

105.2

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

Property Income

326.5

334.7

343.1

352.4

363.2

374.9

385.0

396.4

407.5

417.8

Transfer Payments

305.7

317.3

329.6

341.9

354.2

366.8

379.7

393.3

407.1

420.8

97.0

100.1

103.1

106.0

109.1

112.3

115.5

119.0

122.6

126.2

1671.2

1692.9

1711.2

1737.2

1767.5

1801.6

1836.7

1869.4

1902.6

1935.5

Retail Sales (Billions $)

644.5

678.1

713.5

752.7

795.4

840.7

888.9

941.1

997.8

1060.3

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2005$)

404.4

417.2

430.5

445.2

461.2

478.0

495.5

514.2

534.4

556.7

Nonfarm Farm

Social Insurance New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

25


da Federal Government Employment (Thousands)

July 2012

C H A RTS

010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042

F l o r i d a FORE C A ST


Florida Charts

Florida & U.S. Unemployment Rate (percent)

12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 FL Unemployment Rate U.S. Unemployment Rate

Florida Construction Employment 900.0

(Thousands)

800.0 700.0 600.0 500.0 400.0 300.0 200.0

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

27


Florida Charts

Florida Consumer Price Index (% change year ago)

6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4%

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 FL CPI

Florida Education & Health Services Employment (Thousands)

1800.0 1600.0 1400.0 1200.0 1000.0 800.0 600.0

28

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012


Florida Charts

Florida Financial Activities Employment 700.0

(Thousands)

650.0 600.0 550.0 500.0 450.0 400.0

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042

Florida Federal Government Employment 190.0 180.0 170.0 160.0 150.0 140.0 130.0 120.0 110.0

(Thousands)

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

29


Florida Charts

Florida Financial Activities Employment (Thousands)

700.0 650.0 600.0 550.0 500.0 450.0 400.0

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042

Florida Gross State Product (percent ch. year ago)

15% 11% 7% 2% -2% -6%

30

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 FL Gross State Product

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012


Florida Charts

Florida Housing Starts 300.0

(Thousands)

250.0 200.0 150.0 100.0 50.0 0.0

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 Total Private Housing Starts

Florida Leisure & Hospitality Employment 1150.0 1100.0 1050.0 1000.0 950.0 900.0 850.0 800.0 750.0

(Thousands)

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

31


Florida Charts

Florida Manufacturing Employment (Thousands)

500.0 450.0 400.0 350.0 300.0 250.0

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042

New Passenger Car & Light Truck Registrations (percent ch. year ago)

60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60%

32

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012


Florida Charts

Florida Personal Income (percent ch. year ago)

9% 4% -1% -5% -10%

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042

Florida Professional & Business Services Employment 3500.0

(Thousands)

3000.0 2500.0 2000.0 1500.0 1000.0 500.0

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

33


Florida Charts

Florida Real Gross State Product (percent ch. year ago)

8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8%

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042

Florida State & Local Government Employment (Thousands)

1300.0 1200.0 1100.0 1000.0 900.0 800.0 700.0

34

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012


Florida Charts

Florida Trade, Transportation & Utilities Employment 1900.0

(Thousands)

1800.0 1700.0 1600.0 1500.0 1400.0 1300.0

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042

Florida Unemployment Rate 14.0%

(percent)

12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 Unemployment Rate

Florida Population 35000.0

(Thousands)

30000.0 25000.0 20000.0 15000.0 10000.0

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

35


Florida News Summaries Board votes to increase Florida universities’ tuition

• Florida’s Board of Governors voted to allows state universities to increase tuition, making the determinations on a school by school basis.

• Tuition for students will rise between nine and fifteen percent in the fall depending on the university. Six of eleven increase requests by schools were granted in full, while the rest of the requests were reduced by one to three percentage points.

• Governor Rick Scott spoke out against the tuition hikes, citing a 71% increase in tuition over the past four years. The universities won increases in the end, however, based on the argument that it was necessary to partly offset the $300 million budget cut that Scott and the State Legislature ordered for the State University System. Source: CBS Miami, June 21, 2012 Delayed payments can take a big toll on small businesses

• Small businesses are being hit in this economy by larger firms delaying payments on invoices, sometimes leading to the small firms being unable to pay their bills.

• According to financial analytics firm Sageworks, businesses this year are waiting an average of 29.2 days for payments after they issue an invoice, up 27 percent from the average of 22.8 days just three years ago. • The National Federation of Independent Business found in a survey last year that 64 percent of 850 small businesses polled reported waited at least 60 days to have some invoices paid. About 20 percent said the delinquencies were getting worse. Source: Tampa Bay Times, June 17, 2012 Silver Airways offers new flights connecting Tampa and Jacksonville

• Beginning August 13th, Fort Lauderdale-based Silver Airways will offer daily 65-minute flights linking Tampa and Jacksonville.

• The flights will depart three times a day on weekdays and twice a day on weekends. • Fares will starts at $39 each way.

Source: Tampa Bay Times, May 30, 2012 In Florida’s tough economy, worker discrimination complaints abound

• In 2011, Floridians filed 8,088 private sector complaints of workplace discrimination, harassment, and retaliation with the U.S. Equal Opportunity Employment Commission, being second in the nation for the third year in a row. • States such as California and New York have fewer EEOC complaints filed because they have more extensive laws regarding workplace protection than Florida. 36

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

• Phyllis Towzey, a St. Petersburg labor and employment attorney, attributes the uptick in claims to be “simply economics,” citing the fact that many companies are being forced by the economy to lay off workers, who subsequently look for the reason as to why they were let go. Source: Tampa Bay Times, May 27, 2012 Florida grabs a chunk of foreclosure settlement money for state budget

• $33.4 million of the money Florida will receive in a multibillion mortgage settlement will go towards boosting the state’s budget. • Florida is receiving $8.4 billion in total, with $334 million in cash payments. The 10% being directed toward the general budget is done in the form of a civil penalty. • States that are receiving funds are using it for a variety of purposes, such as sending the money directly to victims of mortgage fraud, incentivizing business ventures, and plugging budget gaps. • Attorney General Pam Bondi, who negotiated the settlement on behalf of Florida, is receiving public comments on where the rest of the $300 million cash payment should go.

Source: Tampa Bay Times, May 28, 2012 Florida credit unions surpass $45 billion in assets

• In the second quarter of 2012, Florida credit unions added 48,000 new members.

• Florida credit unions have now made two records with 4.65 million members statewide and $45.3 billion in assets. • The League of Southeastern Credit Unions attributes the growth in Florida, as well as neighbor Alabama, to consumer backlash against banking fees. Source: Tampa Bay Times, June 7, 2012 Citizens Insurance rattled by continuing rate increase complaints

• State insurance regulators have a number of options to depopulate state-backed Citizens Insurance and increase rates to make them more actuarially sound and in line with private insurers as members of a company committee formulate 2013 premiums.

• To cover potential losses, new coastal businesses would have to see their policy premiums rise by 41.7%, and non-coastal premiums in force at the end of 2010 would have to rise by 24%. • Obstacles include statutes dictating policy increases of no more than 10% each year and opposition arguing that the higher rates would cripple the building industry. Source: NorthEscambia.com, May 18, 2012


July 2012

metros

F l o r i d a FORE C A ST


D e lto na – Day to na B e ach – O r m o n d B e ach

Profiles

Outlook Summaries

The Deltona–Daytona–Ormond Beach MSA is comprised only of Volusia County. It is located on the east coast of Florida and is notable for special events that occur throughout the year such as Bike Week. It is home to NASCAR headquarters and the Daytona International Speedway which hosts popular races such as the Daytona 500.

The Deltona–Daytona–Ormond Beach Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show low levels of growth in most of the economic indicators measured in this forecast. Personal income is expected to average 4.6 percent growth, while the per capita income level will be 31.1. Average annual wage will be the second lowest level of the studied areas at 40.6. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.8 percent. Population growth will be second lowest among the studied metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) at 1.0 percent. Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 13,067.70 (Mill). The employment growth rate is expected to average 1.3 percent each year. Unemployment will average 9.0 percent, the third highest of the twelve MSAs. The Deltona MSA will experience the most growth in the Construction and Mining sector, with an average growth rate of 6.2 percent annually. The Professional and Business Services sector will see the second highest growth in the Deltona MSA at 3.2 percent annually. The Information sector follows with an annual growth rate of 2.3 percent. The only sector that will experience a decline is the Federal Government sector, at -4.7 percent.

Quick Facts: • Population estimate of 494,593 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • A civilian labor force of 246,763 in April of 2012 (Florida Regional Economic Database). • An unemployment rate of 8.6% not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 21,312 unemployed people (Florida Regional Economic Database). Top Area Employers: • Volusia County Schools – 8,080 • Florida Hospital (All Divisions) – 4,248 • Halifax Medical Center – 3,957 • Volusia County Government – 3,280 • Publix – 2,486 • State of Florida – 2,361 • Daytona State College – 1,797 • U.S. Government – 1,422 • Embry Riddle Aeronautical University – 1,176 Source: Volusia County Department of Economic Development and Enterprise Florida

Metro News Summaries Cuts, fewer teachers force Volusia, Flagler schools to adapt • Local schools have lost hundreds of teachers over the past five years. Volusia and Flagler counties have reduced their ranks by more than 800 full-time instructional staff members which include teachers, counselors and media specialists – since fall 2006.

• Many teachers have been forced to switch to multi-grade instruction, where they must create multiple curriculums and teach them to more students. • There are also fewer students in Volusia, which has seen enrollment drop by more than 4,000 students since 2006. Flagler, though, lost more than 100 teachers but gained nearly 900 38

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012


D e l t o n a – Da y t o n a B e ac h – O r m o n d B e ac h

students, according to Florida Department of Education data, which includes traditional and charter public schools.

Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, April 27, 2012 Deltona officials deny plan to annex Osteen

• Since being founded in 1995, Deltona has annexed 45 other towns, causing its population to grow from about 56,000 to more than 80,000 • Deltona officials have explained that state law prevents cities from annexing any lands except those in which a contiguous landowner asks to join.

• Despite that, Osteen residents remain skeptical of Deltona, and say they fear new taxes, a changing character in their community, and the crime that comes with big cities.

New Smyrna OKs expansion of downtown arts district

• The Planning and Zoning Board on Monday unanimously recommended establishing a new district designed to encourage more arts-related businesses downtown.

• Under the arts overlay district, businesses such as bakeries, cafes, coffee shops, art galleries, restaurants, theaters and other stores and services associated with the visual, cultural, literary, decorative or culinary arts could receive certain exemptions or incentives. • Home-based businesses allowed in the arts overlay would be permitted to put up signs, which cannot exceed 10 square feet or be lit.

Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, May 8, 2012

Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, April 30, 2012 Halifax to tear down Atlantic Medical Center

• Halifax Health plans to demolish the old Atlantic Medical Center, an empty complex that is costing the hospital system $230,000 per year to maintain. • Bill Griffin, director of system research and planning for Halifax Health, said the cost of renovating the 1970s-era Atlantic Medical Center far outweighed the cost of demolition. The complex has been empty for the past eight months, he said.

• Making the land development-ready, including reducing the potential environmental impacts, is expected to cost about $2.1 million.

Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, May 8, 2012

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

39


D e lto na – Day to na B e ach – O r m o n d B e ach Deltona - Daytona Beach - Ormond Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manuf acturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Inf ormation Financial Activities Prof essional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

(percent)

35000.0

10.0%

30000.0

8.0%

25000.0

1.6

(Millions 2000 $)

15000.0

4.0%

10000.0

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 FL Unemployment Rate Deltona Unemployment Rate

5000.0

240.0

(Thousands)

220.0 200.0 180.0 160.0 140.0 120.0

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 Deltona Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 Real Gross Metro Product

Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Personal Income

Deltona-Daytona Beach Payroll Employment

40

1.4

20000.0

6.0% 2.0%

1.2

Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Gross Metro Product

Florida & Deltona-Daytona Beach Unemployment Rate 12.0%

1

8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%

(percent change year ago)

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 Real Personal Income


D e l t o n a – Da y t o n a B e ac h – O r m o n d B e ac h

Quarterly Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

July 2012 Forecast

2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

17.1 2.8 6.1 11.1

17.4 3.7 6.1 11.2

17.6 4.1 6.2 11.4

17.7 4.8 6.3 11.5

17.9 4.6 6.3 11.6

18.1 4.1 6.4 11.7

18.3 4 6.5 11.8

18.6 4.8 6.6 12

18.8 4.9 6.6 12.1

19 5.1 6.7 12.3

19.3 5.3 6.8 12.5

19.6 5.2 6.9 12.7

19.8 5.6 7 12.9

20.1 5.8 7.1 13

20.4 6.1 7.2 13.3

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

14.8 1.2

15 2.7

15.2 3.1

15.3 4.2

15.4 3.8

15.5 3

15.6 2.7

15.8 3.2

15.9 2.9

16 3

16.1 3.2

16.3 3.2

16.4 3.7

16.6 4

16.8 4.3

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

34.6 29.9

35 30.3

35.4 30.6

35.6 30.7

35.9 30.8

36.1 30.9

36.4 31

36.9 31.3

37.1 31.3

37.5 31.4

37.8 31.6

38.2 31.8

38.6 32

39 32.1

39.4 32.3

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

38.9 3.4

39.2 2.7

39.5 2.6

39.7 2.6

39.9 2.6

40.1 2.5

40.4 2.4

40.7 2.6

41 2.7

41.3 2.8

41.6 2.9

41.9 2.9

42.2 2.9

42.5 3

42.8 2.9

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

154.9 -0.6

155.7 -0.6

156.5 -1.1

157.3 1.9

158 2

158.7 2

159.4 1.9

160.2 1.9

161 1.8

161.7 1.9

162.6 2

163.5 2

164.4 2.2

165.4 2.3

166.5 2.4

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

8.2 0.6

8.2 1.9

8.3 1.4

8.3 1.7

8.4 2.8

8.5 3.1

8.6 3.5

8.6 3.6

8.7 3

8.7 2.8

8.8 2.6

8.8 2.1

8.9 2

8.9 1.6

8.9 1.3

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

146.7 -0.7

147.4 -0.8

148.3 -1.3

149 1.9

149.6 2

150.2 1.9

150.9 1.8

151.6 1.8

152.3 1.8

153 1.8

153.8 2

154.7 2

155.6 2.2

156.6 2.3

157.6 2.4

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

7.2 -2.3

7.2 -1

7.2 -0.2

7.3 0.6

7.4 2.5

7.5 4.1

7.7 6

7.9 7.6

8 8.8

8.3 9.9

8.5 11.2

8.8 12

9.1 13

9.4 13.7

9.7 13.5

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

30.2 0.2

30.3 0.6

30.5 0.1

30.7 1.9

30.8 2

30.9 1.9

31 1.7

31.1 1.5

31.2 1.3

31.3 1.1

31.4 1.3

31.5 1.4

31.7 1.7

31.9 1.9

32.1 2.2

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

4.8 23.4 1.9

4.9 23.5 1.9

4.9 23.6 1.9

4.9 23.6 2

5 23.7 2

5 23.7 2

5 23.8 2

5.1 23.7 2

5.1 23.6 2

5.2 23.7 2.1

5.2 23.7 2.1

5.3 23.8 2.1

5.3 23.9 2.1

5.4 24 2.1

5.4 24.1 2.2

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2 1.5

2 0.2

2.1 -0.5

2.1 3.5

2.1 4.6

2.1 5

2.1 2.9

2.1 3.6

2.2 3.4

2.2 2.8

2.2 2.6

2.2 2.2

2.2 1.9

2.2 2.6

2.2 2.8

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.3 0.9

7.4 1.2

7.4 1.2

7.4 2.3

7.5 1.9

7.5 1.7

7.5 1.3

7.5 0.5

7.5 0.3

7.5 0.2

7.5 0

7.5 0

7.5 0.2

7.5 0.3

7.5 0.4

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

16.6 -2.6

16.7 -4

17 -4.5

17.3 4.4

17.5 5.1

17.6 5.2

17.8 4.5

17.9 3.8

18.2 4.2

18.5 5

18.8 5.7

19 6.2

19.3 6.2

19.6 6.1

19.9 6.1

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

31.8 -1

32.1 -1

32.2 -0.3

32.2 1.6

32.4 1.6

32.5 1.2

32.5 1

32.8 1.7

32.9 1.7

33 1.7

33.2 1.9

33.2 1.4

33.4 1.4

33.5 1.5

33.6 1.5

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

21.6 -0.6

21.8 -0.9

21.9 -2.6

22 2.7

22.1 2.1

22.1 1.4

22.1 1

22.2 0.7

22.1 0.1

22 -0.2

22 -0.6

22 -0.7

22 -0.7

21.9 -0.5

21.9 -0.4

7.9 1.1

7.9 0.8

8 -0.8

8 2.2

8.1 1.9

8.1 1.8

8.1 1.6

8.1 1.3

8.2 1.3

8.2 1.2

8.2 0.7

8.2 0.5

8.2 0.4

8.2 0.3

8.2 0.6

1.1 -13.3

1.1 -11.9

1.1 -13.2

1.1 -2.9

1.1 -1.9

1.1 -2.3

1.1 -2.4

1.1 -2.3

1.1 -2.2

1.1 -2

1.1 -1.9

1.1 -1.7

1.1 -1.4

1.1 -1.1

1.1 -0.8

20.9 0

20.9 -0.2

20.8 -1.4

20.9 0

20.9 -0.1

20.9 0.1

20.9 0.3

21 0.5

21 0.6

21 0.6

21.1 0.7

21.1 0.9

21.2 1

21.2 1.1

21.3 1.1

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil)

12466.5 12552.3 12651.8 12727.6 12801.1 12868.3 12946.8 13040.9

13145 13260.4 13391.1 13515.6 13643.9 13778.7 13912.9

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

495.5 0.1

496.4 0.3

497.3 0.4

498.3 0.6

499.5 0.8

500.9 0.9

502.4 1

504.1 1.2

505.9 1.3

507.7 1.4

509.6 1.4

511.6 1.5

513.9 1.6

516.6 1.7

519.3 1.9

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

250.9 -1.1

252.3 -1

253.6 -1

254.7 1.6

256.1 2.1

257.5 2.1

259 2.1

260.2 2.2

261.8 2.2

263.5 2.3

264.1 2

264.7 1.7

265.5 1.4

266.4 1.1

266.9 1.1

Unemployment Rate (%)

8.7

8.9

8.9

9

9.2

9.3

9.3

9.3

9.3

9.2

9.1

8.9

8.7

8.6

8.4

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

905 757 148

1066 877 189

1237 986 251

1402 1119 283

1627 1341 286

1917 1533 383

2257 1752 506

2521 1905 616

2803 2127 676

3102 2367 735

3392 2593 800

3678 2816 862

3942 3038 904

4158 3215 944

4313 3326 987

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

41


D e lto na – Day to na B e ach – O r m o n d B e ach

Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

July 2012

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

12.2 4.5 4.7 7.5

13.4 9.6 5.1 8.3

14.3 6.3 5.5 8.8

15.3 7.3 5.9 9.3

16.1 5.4 6.1 10

16.6 2.8 6 10.6

15.6 -6 5.6 9.9

15.9 2.2 5.7 10.2

16.7 4.8 6 10.7

17.3 3.3 6.1 11.1

12.9 2.5

13.8 6.8

14.3 3.2

14.9 4.4

15.3 2.7

15.2 -0.4

14.3 -6.2

14.3 0.4

14.7 2.2

14.9 1.9

26.2 27.7

28.1 28.9

29.3 29.3

30.9 30.1

32.4 30.7

33.4 30.6

31.5 28.9

32.2 29

33.7 29.6

34.8 30.1

29.8 3.9

31 4.1

32 3.4

34 6.1

35.3 3.8

35.8 1.5

35.6 -0.6

36.6 2.9

37.9 3.5

39 3

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

42

157.6 3.1

164.4 4.3

170.9 3.9

173.9 1.8

172.5 -0.8

166.8 -3.3

157.3 -5.7

154.5 -1.8

156.4 1.2

155.4 -0.7

9.4 -1.5

9.8 3.9

10.2 4.4

10.6 3.9

10.3 -2.6

9.1 -12.2

7.8 -13.9

7.5 -3.9

8.1 8.2

8.2 1.3

148.1 3.5

154.6 4.4

160.6 3.9

163.3 1.6

162.2 -0.7

157.7 -2.7

149.5 -5.2

147 -1.7

148.3 0.8

147.1 -0.8

11.5 7.9

12.9 12.8

14.8 14.5

15.9 7.3

14.2 -10.4

11.3 -20.2

8.8 -22.2

7.8 -11.7

7.3 -6.2

7.2 -1.2

31.5 1.6

32 1.7

33.2 3.7

33.2 0

33.6 1.1

32.5 -3.3

30.1 -7.2

30 -0.5

30.2 0.7

30.3 0.4

4.6 24.3 2.6

4.7 25 2.3

4.8 26 2.4

5 25.9 2.4

5.3 25.8 2.5

5.2 24.8 2.4

4.9 23.2 2.1

4.7 23.3 1.9

4.8 23.5 1.8

4.9 23.5 1.9

2.3 -7.6

2.3 -2.5

2.2 -3.2

2.4 8.3

2.5 5.2

2.6 3.6

2.3 -11.9

2 -10.9

2 -1.2

2 -0.2

6.5 1.2

6.9 7.2

7.3 5.5

7.9 7.2

8 2.2

7.7 -4.1

7.1 -7.8

7.1 0.7

7.2 1.3

7.3 1.3

16.4 6.7

18.1 10.4

19.6 8.1

19.4 -0.9

18 -7.1

17.4 -3.2

17.5 0.2

16.9 -3

17.2 1.8

16.7 -3

30.1 6.7

30.7 1.9

30.5 -0.7

30.5 0.2

30.6 0.2

31.9 4.2

31.5 -1.1

31.6 0.4

32.3 2

32 -0.9

20 2.2

21.1 5.3

21.7 2.9

21.6 -0.4

22.6 4.6

22.5 -0.2

21.2 -5.8

21.1 -0.4

22 4.1

21.7 -1.3

7.9 2.9

8.2 4

8.2 0.1

8.3 1.2

8.1 -1.7

8.2 1

8.5 3.1

8.1 -3.9

7.9 -3.2

7.9 0.5

1.4 2.5

1.4 0

1.4 1.2

1.4 -0.6

1.4 -0.6

1.4 0

1.4 2.4

1.5 5.8

1.3 -15.3

1.1 -12.9

20.7 0.5

21.1 2

21.8 3.6

22.8 4.4

23.1 1.5

22.2 -4

21.1 -5

20.7 -1.7

20.9 0.7

20.9 -0.2

11205

11864.7

12645.3

13109.8

13171.6

12742.8

12211.3

12247.4

12428.5

12512.6

467.6 1.8

477.9 2.2

487.3 2

495 1.6

498.4 0.7

497 -0.3

494.8 -0.4

494.5 -0.1

494.9 0.1

496.1 0.3

226.8 2.7

232.7 2.6

242.7 4.3

247.2 1.8

253.4 2.5

254.7 0.5

252 -1

251.2 -0.3

254.1 1.1

251.9 -0.9

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

5.2

4.5

3.6

3.2

4

6.5

10.6

11.6

10.8

9

6159 5118 1041

6282 4889 1393

6439 5166 1272

4268 3110 1158

2185 1595 591

1400 1037 363

663 603 61

718 657 61

1108 521 587

992 810 182


D e l t o n a – Da y t o n a B e ac h – O r m o n d B e ac h

Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

July 2012

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

18 4.4 6.4 11.6

18.9 5 6.7 12.2

20 5.7 7 13

21.3 6.5 7.4 13.9

22.6 5.9 7.8 14.8

23.8 5.7 8.1 15.7

25.1 5.4 8.5 16.6

26.4 5 8.9 17.5

27.7 4.8 9.2 18.4

29.1 5.1 9.6 19.4

15.4 3.4

15.9 3.1

16.5 3.8

17.3 4.8

18.1 4.4

18.8 4.1

19.6 3.9

20.3 3.5

20.9 3.2

21.6 3.4

36 30.9

37.3 31.4

38.8 32.1

40.5 32.9

42 33.7

43.6 34.5

45.1 35.1

46.5 35.7

47.8 36.2

49.3 36.7

40 2.5

41.1 2.8

42.3 2.9

43.6 3

44.9 3.1

46.4 3.2

47.9 3.3

49.4 3.1

51 3.2

52.6 3.2

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

158.4 1.9

161.4 1.9

165 2.2

168.9 2.4

172.1 1.9

174.6 1.4

176.6 1.2

178.5 1.1

180.2 0.9

182.2 1.1

8.5 2.8

8.7 3

8.9 1.8

8.9 0.5

8.9 -0.2

8.9 -0.3

8.8 -0.5

8.8 -0.3

8.8 -0.3

8.7 -0.3

149.9 1.9

152.7 1.8

156.1 2.2

160 2.5

163.2 2.1

165.7 1.5

167.8 1.2

169.7 1.1

171.4 1

173.4 1.2

7.5 3.3

8.2 9.4

9.2 13.1

10.3 11.4

11 6.9

11.4 3.7

11.6 1.5

11.7 0.8

11.8 1

11.9 0.9

30.8 1.9

31.2 1.3

31.8 1.8

32.6 2.3

33.1 1.8

33.5 1.1

33.7 0.6

33.8 0.4

33.9 0.2

34 0.3

5 23.7 2

5.1 23.7 2

5.4 23.9 2.1

5.6 24.4 2.2

5.8 24.6 2.3

6 24.8 2.4

6.1 24.9 2.4

6.2 25 2.4

6.3 24.9 2.4

6.3 25 2.4

2.1 4

2.2 3.1

2.2 2.4

2.3 2.4

2.3 3

2.4 2.6

2.4 2.3

2.5 1.9

2.6 2.3

2.6 2.5

7.5 1.8

7.5 0.2

7.5 0.2

7.5 0.2

7.6 1

7.7 1

7.7 0.8

7.8 0.7

7.8 0.4

7.9 0.9

17.5 4.8

18.3 4.7

19.5 6.2

20.5 5.1

21.4 4.5

22.2 3.7

22.9 3.3

23.7 3.6

24.9 4.7

26.1 4.9

32.4 1.4

33 1.7

33.4 1.4

34.2 2.3

34.9 2.1

35.5 1.7

36.1 1.7

36.7 1.6

37 0.8

37.2 0.7

22.1 1.8

22.1 0

21.9 -0.6

21.9 -0.4

21.7 -0.7

21.5 -0.8

21.4 -0.7

21.2 -1

21 -0.9

20.8 -0.9

8.1 1.9

8.2 1.1

8.2 0.4

8.3 0.9

8.3 1

8.4 0.6

8.4 0.4

8.5 0.4

8.5 0.3

8.5 0.3

1.1 -2.4

1.1 -2.1

1.1 -1.2

1.1 -0.5

1.1 -0.1

1.1 0

1.1 0.3

1.2 12.5

1.1 -8.2

1.1 1

20.9 0.1

21 0.6

21.2 1

21.5 1.3

21.8 1.4

22.1 1.6

22.5 1.5

22.7 1.2

23 1.2

23.3 1.5

12836

13209.4

13712.8

14228

14710.9

15163

15607.8

16045

16425.7

16847.9

500.3 0.8

506.8 1.3

515.3 1.7

526.2 2.1

536.4 1.9

546.5 1.9

557.1 2

567.8 1.9

578.3 1.8

588.8 1.8

256.8 2

262.4 2.2

265.9 1.3

268.7 1.1

272.3 1.3

276.5 1.5

280.7 1.5

284.8 1.4

288.3 1.2

291.8 1.2

9.2

9.2

8.7

8

7.6

7.3

7.1

6.9

6.9

6.9

1801 1436 365

2954 2248 707

4023 3099 924

4646 3498 1148

4979 3661 1318

4972 3666 1307

4966 3680 1286

4939 3692 1247

4799 3627 1171

4709 3577 1132

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

43


D e lto na – Day to na B e ach – O r m o n d B e ach

Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

July 2012

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

30.6 5.3 10.1 20.5

32.2 5.3 10.5 21.7

33.8 5.1 10.9 22.9

35.6 5.1 11.5 24.1

37.5 5.3 12 25.4

39.3 5 12.6 26.7

41.3 5 13.3 28

43.3 4.9 13.9 29.4

45.5 5 14.7 30.8

47.8 5.1 15.5 32.3

22.4 3.4

23.1 3.3

23.8 3.2

24.6 3.2

25.4 3.3

26.2 3.1

26.9 3

27.7 2.9

28.5 3

29.4 3.1

51 37.3

52.7 37.8

54.5 38.3

56.3 38.9

58.2 39.5

60.1 40

62 40.5

64 41

66.1 41.5

68.4 42.1

54.4 3.3

56.2 3.3

58 3.3

60 3.4

62.1 3.4

64.2 3.4

66.5 3.5

68.8 3.4

71.2 3.6

73.8 3.5

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

44

184 1

185.5 0.8

187.6 1.1

190.1 1.4

192.9 1.5

195.8 1.5

198.9 1.6

201.9 1.5

205.1 1.6

208.7 1.7

8.7 -0.9

8.6 -1

8.5 -1.1

8.4 -1.3

8.3 -1.2

8.2 -1.2

8.1 -1.1

8 -1

7.9 -0.9

7.9 -0.9

175.3 1.1

176.9 0.9

179.1 1.2

181.7 1.5

184.6 1.6

187.6 1.6

190.8 1.7

193.9 1.6

197.2 1.7

200.9 1.8

12 1.3

12.2 1.7

12.5 2.2

12.8 2.7

13.1 2.2

13.4 1.7

13.6 1.5

13.8 1.6

14.1 2.3

14.4 2.4

34.2 0.5

34.4 0.6

34.6 0.8

34.9 0.9

35.3 1.2

35.7 1.1

36.1 1.1

36.4 0.8

36.7 0.9

37 0.8

6.4 25 2.5

6.5 25 2.5

6.6 25.2 2.6

6.7 25.3 2.6

6.8 25.6 2.6

6.8 25.9 2.7

6.9 26.1 2.7

7 26.4 2.7

7 26.6 2.8

7.1 26.8 2.8

2.7 1.5

2.7 1

2.7 1.4

2.8 1.9

2.8 2.4

2.9 2.7

3 2.9

3.1 2.5

3.2 2.5

3.2 2.6

8 0.9

8 0.9

8.1 1.1

8.2 1.2

8.3 1.4

8.5 1.6

8.6 1.7

8.8 1.6

8.9 1.7

9 1.6

27 3.5

27.6 2.1

28.4 3

29.4 3.5

30.3 3.2

31.3 3.2

32.4 3.6

33.6 3.4

35 4.3

36.7 4.8

37.5 0.7

37.7 0.6

38 0.7

38.4 1.1

38.9 1.3

39.5 1.5

40.1 1.6

40.6 1.4

41.2 1.3

41.7 1.3

20.6 -0.8

20.6 -0.3

20.6 -0.1

20.6 0.3

20.8 0.7

20.9 0.9

21.2 1

21.3 0.8

21.5 0.9

21.7 0.9

8.6 0.6

8.6 0.8

8.7 1.2

8.9 1.2

9 1.2

9.1 1.3

9.2 1.4

9.3 1.3

9.4 1

9.5 0.8

1.1 2.7

1.2 3.6

1.2 3.5

1.3 3.4

1.3 3.3

1.3 3.2

1.4 3.1

1.5 9.3

1.5 -1.9

1.5 3

23.7 1.4

23.9 1.2

24.2 1.2

24.5 1.1

24.8 1.1

25 1.1

25.3 1.1

25.5 1

25.8 1

26 0.9

17345.5

17862.2

18407.7

18967.8

19533.1

20109.5

20711.3

21341.6

22023.4

22715.4

599.5 1.8

610.3 1.8

621.2 1.8

632.2 1.8

643.4 1.8

654.5 1.7

665.7 1.7

676.8 1.7

687.9 1.6

699 1.6

295.8 1.4

299.8 1.4

303.6 1.3

307.7 1.4

312 1.4

316.4 1.4

320.9 1.4

325.4 1.4

330 1.4

334.6 1.4

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

6.8

6.7

6.6

6.5

6.5

6.4

6.3

6.2

6.1

6.1

4751 3677 1074

4968 3926 1042

5075 4031 1044

5157 4088 1068

5127 4034 1093

5064 3956 1108

5021 3923 1098

5038 3970 1067

5002 3961 1041

4881 3865 1017


D e l t o n a – Da y t o n a B e ac h – O r m o n d B e ac h

Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

July 2012

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

50.2 4.9 16.2 34

52.6 4.8 16.9 35.7

55.1 4.8 17.6 37.5

57.8 4.9 18.4 39.4

60.5 4.7 19.2 41.3

63.4 4.8 20 43.4

66.4 4.7 20.9 45.5

69.5 4.6 21.8 47.7

72.7 4.7 22.8 50

76.2 4.7 23.8 52.4

30.3 2.9

31.1 2.7

32 2.8

32.9 2.8

33.7 2.7

34.7 2.8

35.6 2.7

36.5 2.5

37.4 2.6

38.4 2.6

70.6 42.6

72.9 43.1

75.3 43.6

77.8 44.2

80.3 44.7

82.9 45.3

85.6 45.9

88.3 46.4

91.1 46.9

94 47.4

76.2 3.3

78.7 3.3

81.3 3.2

83.9 3.2

86.6 3.2

89.4 3.2

92.2 3.2

95.1 3.1

98.1 3.2

101.2 3.1

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

211.5 1.3

213.8 1.1

216 1.1

218.5 1.1

220.9 1.1

223.3 1.1

225.8 1.1

228.4 1.1

231.1 1.2

234 1.3

7.8 -1

7.7 -0.9

7.6 -0.9

7.6 -0.8

7.5 -0.8

7.5 -0.7

7.4 -0.4

7.4 -0.5

7.4 -0.5

7.3 -0.5

203.7 1.4

206.1 1.1

208.4 1.1

210.9 1.2

213.3 1.2

215.9 1.2

218.4 1.2

221 1.2

223.7 1.2

226.7 1.3

14.7 2.1

14.9 1.4

15.1 1.4

15.4 1.6

15.6 1.6

15.9 1.5

16.1 1.4

16.2 0.7

16.3 0.9

16.5 1.2

37.3 0.8

37.5 0.6

37.8 0.6

38 0.6

38.3 0.7

38.6 0.8

38.8 0.8

39.1 0.8

39.5 0.9

39.8 0.9

7.1 27 2.8

7.2 27.2 2.8

7.2 27.4 2.8

7.2 27.6 2.8

7.3 27.8 2.8

7.3 28.1 2.8

7.3 28.3 2.8

7.4 28.6 2.7

7.4 28.8 2.7

7.6 29 2.7

3.3 2.6

3.4 2.6

3.5 2.8

3.6 2.8

3.7 2.8

3.8 2.8

3.9 2.9

4 2.8

4.1 2.7

4.2 2.8

9.2 1.4

9.3 1.2

9.4 1.3

9.5 1.4

9.6 1.2

9.8 1.2

9.9 1.1

9.9 0.6

10 0.3

10 0.2

37.8 3.2

38.8 2.5

39.7 2.4

40.6 2.4

41.6 2.3

42.5 2.3

43.4 2.2

44.6 2.6

45.9 3

47.3 3.1

42.1 1

42.4 0.7

42.7 0.7

43.1 0.8

43.4 0.8

43.8 0.9

44.1 0.8

44.5 0.9

44.9 0.9

45.4 1

21.9 0.8

22 0.5

22.1 0.7

22.3 0.6

22.4 0.6

22.6 0.7

22.7 0.7

22.8 0.5

23 0.6

23.1 0.5

9.6 0.9

9.6 0.8

9.7 0.8

9.8 0.8

9.9 0.6

9.9 0.6

10 0.6

10 0.5

10.1 0.5

10.1 0.3

1.6 2.9

1.6 2.9

1.7 3

1.7 2.9

1.8 2.8

1.8 2.7

1.8 2.5

2 6.4

1.9 -1.2

2 2.8

26.2 0.9

26.5 0.8

26.7 0.8

26.9 0.8

27.1 0.8

27.4 0.8

27.6 0.9

27.8 0.9

28.1 0.9

28.3 0.9

23374

24032.8

24725.2

25453.2

26215

26993.6

27812.1

28671.5

29617.1

30608.9

710.1 1.6

721.1 1.6

732.1 1.5

743 1.5

754 1.5

765 1.5

776.1 1.4

787.2 1.4

798.4 1.4

810.1 1.5

339.1 1.4

343.7 1.3

348.2 1.3

352.7 1.3

357.2 1.3

361.6 1.2

366.2 1.3

370.5 1.2

374.9 1.2

379.1 1.1

6

6

5.9

5.9

5.9

5.9

5.9

5.9

5.9

5.9

4857 3871 986

4905 3950 955

4966 4037 929

4996 4095 901

4934 4069 866

4869 4030 839

4818 3999 819

4756 3959 798

4739 3965 774

4703 3950 753

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

45


Gai n e svi lle

Profiles

Outlook Summaries

The Gainesville MSA is comprised of Alachua and Gilchrist Counties and is located in the centralnorth portion of the state. This Metro is home to the University of Florida and the Florida Museum of Natural History, Florida’s official natural history museum.

The Gainesville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA is expected to show relatively low growth in most of the economic indicators measured in this forecast. Personal income growth will see a 3.8 percent growth, the lowest of the MSAs studied. Per capita income level is expected to average 32.1. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.9 percent, while the average annual wage level will be at 45.6. Population growth will average the lowest of the studied areas at 1.0 percent annually. Gross Metro Product will be the second lowest of the studied MSAs at a level of 8,850.00 (Mill). Gainesville will see an employment growth rate of 0.7 percent annually. The Gainesville MSA will maintain the lowest unemployment rate of the twelve studied, at 6.4 percent. The fastest growing sector in the area will be the Construction and Mining sector, with an average growth rate of 5.1 percent annually. This is followed by the Professional and Business Services sector with an average annual growth rate of 3.7 percent. State and Local Government, and Federal Government sectors will experience a decline, with annual growth rates of -0.2 and -3.3 respectively.

Quick Facts: • Metro population estimate of 266,369 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Alachua County population estimate of 247,418 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Gilchrist County population estimate of 17,004 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • A civilian labor force of 137,753 in April 2012 for the Metro area (Florida Department of Economic Opportunity). • An unemployment rate of 6.3% not seasonally adjusted for the entire Metro. This amounts to 8,691 unemployed people (Florida Department of Economic Opportunity). Top Area Employers: • University of Florida – 14,723 employees • Shands HealthCare – 12,588 employees

Metro News Summaries

• Malcom Randall VA Medical Center – 4,317 employees

Mayor Lowe talks up Gainesville in Washington, D.C.

• Alachua County School Board – 4,299 employees • City of Gainesville – 2,200 employees • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 2,056 employees • North Florida Regional Medical Center – 1,700 employees • Nationwide Insurance – 1,300 employees • Alachua County Government – 1,120 employees • Santa Fe Community College - 796 employees Source: City of Gainesville, 2011

• On April 18, there was a roundtable discussion which was named, “Perspectives from the Entrepreneurial Ecosystem: Creating Jobs and Growing Businesses through Entrepreneurship.”

• Lowe’s role was informing the group on how local governments can foster growth for entrepreneurs. He shared how UF was part of a joint effort with Innovation Hub and Innovation Square. • His ideas may later be included in later legislation.

Source: Gainesville.com, April 18, 2012

46

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012


Ga i n e s v i l l e

Poppell continues to innovate

• Ed Poppell has a distinguished history in Gainesville. He has developed University of Florida East Campus, and continues to enhance Gainesville. • His current project is developing an area of Innovation Square to appeal to a software development company. The company requested a space for 400 employees. He has already created Innovation Hub, which is a business incubator. • He has more plans for the area, including a technology center (now under construction), a dorm, restaurant, retail space, and more office/ lab space.

Source: Gainesville.com, April 29, 2012

Alachua Co. crime dropped in 2011, but crime rate went up • The figure of Alachua County serious violent and property crimes decreased by 2.4 percent from 2010 to 2011, however the crime rate increased by 0.9 percent.

• According to 2010’s numbers, Alachua County had the 12th highest crime rate in the state, but that rate went from 4,210.5 crimes per 100,000 residents in 2010 to 4,249.7 last year as the population dropped from 255,692 in 2010 to 247,337 in 2011. • Violent crimes were down 3.7%.

Source: Gainesville.com, April 30, 2012 Further water restriction coming for Suwannee district

• Severe droughts and human consumption has depleted much of the fresh water sources in Gainesville. The Santa Fe River and Poe Springs are virtually stagnant.

• These are some of the toughest restrictions to date. The water management district wants everyone from large-scale farmers to homeowners to revisit how they use water.

Source: Gainesville.com, May 29, 2012

UF president to retire by end of 2013, search to start next month

• President Bernie Machen told the UF Board of Trustees that he would like to retire by the end of 2013. The exact end date depends on his successor. • The search for a new president is likely to take six months to a year. Machen will have been at UF for nearly a decade. • His contract, which was extended last year, allows him to remain at UF. The contract establishes a post-presidency role for him, if he cares to stay.

Source: Gainesville.com, June 8, 2012

Lane Ranger: No money available to widen CR 234

• A recent citizen wrote in to inform the local government about the condition of County Road 234. He said that the road gets a lot of traffic, many of which are in violation of a weight limit.

• He said the road is dangerously narrow, especially for school busses. The 3.43- mile portion of the road is listed as 99th on projects needed funding if voters agree on a sales tax for road maintenance. It would cost $3M to repair.

Source: Gainesville.com, June 10, 2012

• One of the restrictions is the reduction of lawn irrigation from twice a week to once a week. The restrictions are mandatory. There will also be restrictions on farmers and commercial properties. Institute for Economic Competitiveness

47


Gai n e svi lle Gainesville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manuf acturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Inf ormation Financial Activities Prof essional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

Florida & Gainesville Unemployment Rate (percent)

12.0% 10.0%

1.5

2.5

Gainesville Real Gross Metro Product (Millions 2000 $)

18000.0 16000.0 12000.0 10000.0 8000.0 6000.0

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 FL Unemployment Rate Gainesville Unemployment Rate

4000.0

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 Real Gross Metro Product

Gainesville Payroll Employment 160.0

(Thousands)

Gainesville Real Personal Income 15.0%

150.0

10.0%

140.0

5.0%

130.0

0.0%

120.0

-5.0%

110.0

48

2

14000.0

8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%

1

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 Gainesville Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

-10.0%

(percent change year ago)

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 Real Personal Income


Ga i n e s v i l l e

Quarterly Outlook for Gainesville, FL

July 2012 Forecast

2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

9.7 1.9 5.5 4.2

9.8 2.7 5.5 4.3

9.9 4 5.6 4.3

10 3.8 5.6 4.3

10 3.7 5.7 4.4

10.1 3.4 5.7 4.4

10.2 3.3 5.8 4.4

10.4 4 5.8 4.5

10.5 4.1 5.9 4.6

10.6 4.2 5.9 4.6

10.7 4.4 6 4.7

10.8 4.4 6.1 4.7

11 4.8 6.1 4.8

11.1 5.1 6.2 4.9

11.2 5.3 6.3 4.9

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

8.4 0.4

8.5 1.7

8.5 3

8.6 3.2

8.6 3

8.7 2.3

8.7 2

8.8 2.3

8.8 2.1

8.9 2.2

8.9 2.4

9 2.5

9.1 2.9

9.2 3.3

9.2 3.5

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

36.1 31.3

36.4 31.5

36.7 31.7

36.9 31.8

37.1 31.9

37.3 31.9

37.5 32

38 32.2

38.2 32.2

38.4 32.3

38.8 32.4

39.2 32.6

39.5 32.8

39.9 32.9

40.3 33.2

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

43.5 3.4

43.8 2.7

44.2 2.6

44.4 2.7

44.7 2.7

45 2.6

45.3 2.5

45.6 2.7

46 2.8

46.3 2.9

46.7 3

47 3

47.4 3.1

47.7 3.1

48.1 3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

124.8 -1.3

125.1 -0.7

125.5 0.6

125.9 0.9

126.2 1.1

126.5 1.1

126.8 1

127.2 1

127.5 1

127.8 1

128.3 1.2

128.7 1.2

129.2 1.4

129.7 1.5

130.3 1.6

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

4.4 0.2

4.4 0.5

4.5 -0.1

4.5 1.8

4.5 2.9

4.6 3.2

4.6 3.7

4.7 3.9

4.7 3.2

4.7 3

4.7 2.8

4.8 2.4

4.8 2.2

4.8 1.8

4.8 1.5

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

120.4 -1.3

120.7 -0.7

121.1 0.6

121.4 0.9

121.7 1

121.9 1

122.2 0.9

122.5 0.9

122.8 0.9

123.1 1

123.5 1.1

124 1.2

124.4 1.3

124.9 1.5

125.5 1.6

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

3.6 -6.3

3.6 -3.4

3.6 -3.5

3.6 -0.6

3.7 1.3

3.7 3

3.8 5.2

3.9 7.1

4 8.7

4.1 9.9

4.2 11.2

4.4 12.1

4.5 13

4.6 13.7

4.8 13.4

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

17.9 -0.8

18 -1

18 0.9

18.1 1.3

18.1 1.5

18.2 1.4

18.3 1.2

18.3 1

18.3 0.8

18.3 0.7

18.4 0.8

18.5 0.9

18.5 1.2

18.6 1.4

18.7 1.6

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

2.4 13.3 2.2

2.4 13.3 2.2

2.4 13.4 2.2

2.4 13.4 2.2

2.5 13.4 2.2

2.5 13.4 2.3

2.5 13.4 2.3

2.5 13.3 2.3

2.5 13.3 2.3

2.5 13.3 2.3

2.5 13.3 2.3

2.6 13.3 2.4

2.6 13.3 2.4

2.6 13.4 2.4

2.6 13.4 2.4

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.4 -6.4

1.4 -0.7

1.4 0.2

1.4 1.7

1.5 3.5

1.5 4

1.5 3.5

1.5 3.1

1.5 1.5

1.5 0.8

1.5 1

1.5 1.8

1.5 2.6

1.5 3.2

1.5 3.3

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

5.8 -0.1

5.9 0.8

5.9 1.1

5.9 2.1

5.9 1.7

6 1.5

6 1.1

5.9 0.3

5.9 0.1

6 0

6 -0.1

5.9 -0.1

5.9 0

6 0.2

6 0.2

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

10.6 -2.2

10.6 -0.1

10.8 3.4

11 4.3

11.1 5

11.2 5

11.3 4.4

11.4 3.7

11.5 4.1

11.7 4.9

11.9 5.5

12.1 6

12.2 6.1

12.4 6

12.6 6

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

22.1 -1

22.2 -0.6

22.3 0.8

22.3 1.2

22.4 1.2

22.4 0.9

22.4 0.7

22.6 1.3

22.7 1.3

22.7 1.3

22.8 1.5

22.8 1

22.9 1

22.9 1.1

23 1

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

12.8 -1.9

12.9 0.3

13 3.5

13 2.4

13.1 1.9

13.1 1.3

13.1 0.9

13.1 0.6

13.1 0

13 -0.4

13 -0.9

13 -1

12.9 -0.9

12.9 -0.7

12.9 -0.6

4.3 -2

4.4 -0.5

4.4 1.5

4.4 2

4.4 1.7

4.4 1.5

4.4 1.2

4.4 0.8

4.4 0.7

4.4 0.5

4.4 0.1

4.4 -0.1

4.4 -0.2

4.4 -0.2

4.4 0.1

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

4.2 -4.9

4.2 -4.9

4.2 -6.3

4.1 -3.8

4.1 -2.8

4.1 -3

4 -3.1

4 -3

4 -2.9

4 -2.7

3.9 -2.6

3.9 -2.4

3.9 -2.1

3.9 -1.8

3.9 -1.5

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

37.7 -0.3

37.5 -0.7

37.5 -0.4

37.5 -0.6

37.4 -0.6

37.4 -0.3

37.4 -0.2

37.4 -0.1

37.4 0

37.4 0

37.5 0.1

37.5 0.3

37.6 0.4

37.6 0.5

37.7 0.5

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil)

8577.6

8610.4

8655.7

8688.5

8722.1

8749.8

8784.7

8826

8874.4

8930.4

8997.4

9059.7

9124.5

9191.3

9258.2

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

268.3 0.7

268.9 0.8

269.6 0.8

270.2 0.9

270.9 1

271.6 1

272.3 1

273.1 1.1

273.8 1.1

274.6 1.1

275.4 1.1

276.2 1.1

277 1.2

277.8 1.1

278.5 1.1

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

138.3 -0.1

138.9 0.4

139.6 1.4

140 1.4

140.6 1.7

141.1 1.6

141.6 1.4

142 1.4

142.4 1.3

143 1.3

143.1 1.1

143.2 0.9

143.4 0.7

143.7 0.5

143.7 0.4

Unemployment Rate (%)

6.6

6.6

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.6

6.6

6.5

6.4

6.3

6.2

6.1

6

5.9

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

535 363 172

573 380 193

635 386 248

688 406 281

751 452 300

800 488 312

837 520 317

891 544 347

981 604 377

1073 667 406

1163 726 438

1252 783 469

1334 844 490

1403 892 511

1451 918 533

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

49


Gai n e svi lle

Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL

July 2012

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

6.3 3.4 3.8 2.5

7.1 13 4.3 2.8

7.7 8.2 4.6 3.1

8.3 7.9 4.9 3.4

8.8 5.6 5.1 3.6

9.2 5.2 5.2 4

8.8 -4.4 5.2 3.6

9.1 3.4 5.2 3.9

9.5 4 5.4 4.1

9.7 2.6 5.5 4.2

6.7 1.4

7.3 10.1

7.7 5.1

8.1 5

8.3 2.8

8.5 1.9

8.1 -4.6

8.2 1.6

8.3 1.5

8.4 1.1

26 27.5

29 29.8

30.8 30.8

32.5 31.6

33.8 32.1

35.3 32.4

33.5 30.7

34.5 31

35.6 31.3

36.3 31.4

29.9 1.7

33.4 11.8

35.1 5.2

36.9 5.1

38.2 3.4

39.1 2.3

40.4 3.5

41.1 1.7

42.4 3.1

43.7 3.1

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

50

126.3 1.1

128.6 1.8

130.2 1.3

132.4 1.7

134.2 1.4

133.5 -0.5

127.6 -4.4

126.9 -0.6

126 -0.7

125.1 -0.8

5.2 -4.9

5.2 -1.6

5.2 -0.1

5.7 11

5.8 2

5.6 -4.3

4.7 -16

4.4 -5.7

4.4 -0.3

4.4 0.4

121.1 1.3

123.5 2

125.1 1.3

126.7 1.3

128.4 1.4

127.9 -0.3

122.9 -3.9

122.4 -0.4

121.6 -0.7

120.6 -0.8

5.2 1.4

5.8 11.7

6.2 6.4

6.5 5.3

6.5 0.9

5.7 -13.2

4.6 -18.3

4.2 -9

3.8 -10.4

3.6 -4.2

18.1 1.1

18.2 0.4

18.9 3.6

19.5 3.3

20.3 3.9

19.7 -2.8

18.3 -7

18 -1.7

18.1 0.4

17.9 -0.7

2.5 13.1 2.5

2.6 13.2 2.4

2.7 13.8 2.4

2.7 14.1 2.6

2.8 14.9 2.6

2.8 14.2 2.7

2.6 13.3 2.4

2.4 13.2 2.3

2.5 13.3 2.3

2.4 13.3 2.2

2 -1.3

2.1 6.2

2 -5.8

2 -2.9

2 2.5

1.9 -7

1.6 -13.8

1.5 -6.7

1.5 -2.7

1.4 -3.5

6.2 -6.5

6.2 -0.6

6.2 1

6.5 4.1

6.4 -0.6

6.2 -3.4

6 -3.6

5.9 -1.1

5.8 -1.5

5.9 0.3

9.4 4.8

10.3 9.8

10.9 6.2

11.1 1.4

10.6 -4.5

10.7 1.7

10.3 -3.9

10.4 0.6

10.7 2.8

10.6 -0.4

20.3 2.4

21 3.1

21.4 2.2

21.4 0.1

21.3 -0.6

21.9 2.9

22 0.2

22.2 0.9

22.3 0.5

22.2 -0.5

12 -0.5

12.9 7.5

13.7 6

13.4 -2

14 4.1

14.5 3.6

13.4 -7.2

13 -3

12.9 -1.1

12.9 -0.3

4.5 5.4

4.7 3.4

4.5 -3

4.7 2.6

4.8 3.7

4.8 -0.5

4.5 -6.1

4.4 -2.6

4.4 -0.1

4.3 -1

3.3 3.6

3.4 3.8

3.7 5.9

3.7 2.1

3.8 3.1

4 5.2

4.3 5.4

4.7 11

4.5 -5.8

4.2 -5.1

40 1.6

38.9 -2.8

37.6 -3.3

37.9 0.9

38.6 1.8

38.5 -0.3

37.9 -1.6

38.1 0.6

37.8 -0.8

37.6 -0.6

7680.7

8001

8162.6

8436.3

8753.3

8717.1

8482.7

8600.8

8597.1

8598.2

242.4 1.2

245.8 1.4

250.4 1.9

256 2.2

259.5 1.4

261.9 0.9

263.6 0.6

264.8 0.5

266.6 0.7

268.7 0.8

126 0.8

126.5 0.4

130 2.7

132 1.6

137.2 3.9

139.2 1.5

137.4 -1.3

138.2 0.6

138.3 0

138.7 0.3

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

3.7

3.4

2.9

2.6

2.9

4.3

7.1

8

7.8

6.7

1738 1291 447

1868 1406 462

2143 1466 677

1921 1161 760

1452 767 685

1059 517 542

514 364 150

511 405 106

461 292 169

576 370 206


Ga i n e s v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL

July 2012

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

10.1 3.6 5.7 4.4

10.5 4.2 5.9 4.6

11 4.9 6.2 4.8

11.6 5.6 6.5 5.2

12.2 5 6.8 5.5

12.8 4.8 7.1 5.8

13.4 4.5 7.3 6

14 4.2 7.6 6.3

14.5 4.1 7.9 6.6

15.2 4.4 8.3 6.9

8.7 2.6

8.8 2.2

9.1 3

9.5 3.9

9.8 3.5

10.1 3.3

10.4 3

10.7 2.7

11 2.4

11.3 2.7

37.2 31.9

38.3 32.3

39.8 32.9

41.5 33.8

43.1 34.6

44.7 35.4

46.3 36.1

47.8 36.7

49.3 37.2

50.9 37.9

44.9 2.7

46.1 2.9

47.5 3

49 3.1

50.6 3.2

52.2 3.3

54 3.4

55.8 3.3

57.6 3.4

59.6 3.3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

126.3 1

127.7 1.1

129.5 1.4

131.5 1.6

133.2 1.3

134.5 0.9

135.4 0.7

136.4 0.7

137 0.5

138 0.7

4.6 2.9

4.7 3.2

4.8 2

4.8 0.7

4.8 -0.1

4.8 -0.2

4.8 -0.3

4.8 -0.2

4.8 -0.1

4.8 -0.2

121.8 1

123 1

124.7 1.4

126.7 1.6

128.4 1.3

129.6 1

130.6 0.8

131.6 0.7

132.2 0.5

133.2 0.7

3.7 2.2

4 9.3

4.6 13.1

5.1 10.9

5.4 6.3

5.6 3.1

5.6 1.1

5.6 0.5

5.7 0.8

5.7 0.6

18.2 1.4

18.3 0.8

18.6 1.3

18.9 1.8

19.1 1.2

19.2 0.5

19.2 0

19.2 -0.3

19.1 -0.4

19 -0.3

2.5 13.4 2.3

2.5 13.3 2.3

2.6 13.4 2.4

2.7 13.5 2.5

2.8 13.6 2.6

2.8 13.6 2.6

2.9 13.6 2.6

2.9 13.5 2.6

2.9 13.4 2.6

2.9 13.4 2.6

1.5 3.2

1.5 1.6

1.5 2.7

1.6 2.7

1.6 2.6

1.6 2.2

1.7 1.8

1.7 1.4

1.7 1.8

1.7 2

5.9 1.6

6 0.1

6 0.1

6 0

6 0.7

6 0.7

6.1 0.5

6.1 0.4

6.1 0

6.1 0.5

11.1 4.7

11.6 4.5

12.3 6

12.9 4.9

13.5 4.3

13.9 3.4

14.4 3

14.8 3.3

15.5 4.4

16.2 4.5

22.4 1

22.7 1.3

22.9 1

23.3 1.8

23.7 1.5

24 1.2

24.2 1.1

24.5 1

24.5 0.3

24.6 0.1

13.1 1.6

13 -0.2

12.9 -0.8

12.8 -0.7

12.7 -1

12.6 -0.9

12.5 -0.8

12.3 -1.2

12.2 -1.1

12.1 -1.2

4.4 1.6

4.4 0.5

4.4 -0.1

4.5 0.5

4.5 0.5

4.5 0.1

4.5 -0.1

4.5 -0.1

4.5 -0.3

4.5 -0.3

4.1 -3.2

4 -2.8

3.9 -1.9

3.9 -1.2

3.8 -0.8

3.8 -0.7

3.8 -0.4

4 4.8

3.8 -2.9

3.9 0.3

37.4 -0.4

37.4 0

37.6 0.4

37.8 0.6

38.1 0.7

38.4 0.8

38.7 0.8

38.9 0.5

39.1 0.5

39.4 0.8

8736.3

8907.1

9158.4

9414.4

9652.2

9874.7

10092.8

10311.1

10481.5

10683.3

271.3 1

274.2 1.1

277.4 1.1

280.5 1.1

283.6 1.1

286.5 1

289.3 1

292 0.9

294.7 0.9

297.5 1

140.8 1.5

142.6 1.3

143.5 0.6

144.1 0.4

144.8 0.5

145.7 0.6

146.8 0.8

148.1 0.9

149.2 0.7

150.2 0.7

6.5

6.4

6

5.6

5.4

5.3

5.1

5

5

4.9

769 467 303

1027 635 392

1360 859 501

1570 954 615

1691 989 703

1686 985 702

1651 974 677

1618 966 653

1568 944 624

1539 925 614

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

51


Gai n e svi lle

Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL

July 2012

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

15.8 4.5 8.6 7.3

16.6 4.5 8.9 7.6

17.3 4.5 9.3 8

18.1 4.5 9.7 8.4

18.9 4.6 10.1 8.8

19.7 4.5 10.6 9.2

20.6 4.5 11.1 9.5

21.5 4.4 11.6 9.9

22.5 4.5 12.1 10.4

23.6 4.6 12.7 10.8

11.6 2.7

11.9 2.5

12.2 2.5

12.5 2.5

12.8 2.6

13.1 2.5

13.5 2.5

13.8 2.4

14.1 2.4

14.5 2.6

52.8 38.5

54.6 39.2

56.5 39.8

58.5 40.4

60.7 41.1

62.8 41.8

65 42.4

67.3 43.1

69.8 43.8

72.4 44.5

61.6 3.5

63.8 3.4

66 3.5

68.3 3.6

70.8 3.6

73.3 3.6

76 3.6

78.7 3.6

81.7 3.8

84.7 3.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

52

138.8 0.6

139.3 0.4

140.2 0.6

141.3 0.8

142.6 0.9

143.9 0.9

145.3 1

146.8 1

148.1 0.9

149.8 1.1

4.7 -0.7

4.7 -0.9

4.6 -1

4.6 -1.2

4.5 -1.1

4.5 -1.1

4.4 -1

4.4 -0.9

4.4 -0.8

4.3 -0.8

134 0.6

134.6 0.4

135.6 0.7

136.7 0.9

138 1

139.4 1

140.9 1.1

142.4 1.1

143.8 0.9

145.4 1.1

5.8 1

5.9 1.4

6 2

6.1 2.5

6.3 2

6.3 1.5

6.4 1.3

6.5 1.4

6.7 2.2

6.8 2.2

19 -0.1

19 0

19.1 0.2

19.1 0.3

19.2 0.6

19.3 0.5

19.4 0.5

19.5 0.2

19.5 0.3

19.6 0.2

3 13.3 2.7

3 13.2 2.7

3 13.2 2.7

3 13.2 2.7

3 13.3 2.8

3 13.4 2.8

3 13.4 2.8

3 13.5 2.8

3 13.5 2.8

3 13.5 2.8

1.8 0.9

1.8 0.4

1.8 0.8

1.8 1.3

1.8 1.8

1.9 2.1

1.9 2.3

2 1.9

2 2

2 2

6.2 0.5

6.2 0.4

6.2 0.6

6.3 0.7

6.3 0.9

6.4 1.1

6.5 1.2

6.5 1.1

6.6 1.1

6.7 1.1

16.7 3.1

17 1.7

17.4 2.6

18 3.1

18.5 2.7

19 2.8

19.6 3.2

20.2 3

20.9 3.8

21.9 4.3

24.6 0.1

24.6 0

24.6 0.1

24.7 0.4

24.9 0.7

25.1 0.9

25.4 1

25.6 0.8

25.7 0.7

25.9 0.7

11.9 -1.1

11.9 -0.6

11.8 -0.4

11.8 -0.1

11.8 0.4

11.9 0.6

12 0.7

12.1 0.5

12.1 0.7

12.2 0.7

4.4 -0.2

4.4 -0.1

4.5 0.5

4.5 0.6

4.5 0.5

4.5 0.7

4.6 0.7

4.6 0.7

4.6 0.4

4.6 0.2

3.9 1.1

4 1.6

4 1.5

4.1 1.5

4.1 1.4

4.2 1.3

4.2 1.2

4.6 7.3

4.4 -3.5

4.4 1.2

39.7 0.7

39.9 0.5

40.2 0.5

40.3 0.4

40.5 0.5

40.7 0.4

40.9 0.4

41 0.3

41.1 0.3

41.2 0.3

10926.4

11174.9

11436.5

11699.4

11961.3

12227.5

12506.2

12814.7

13114.4

13431.7

300.4 1

303.2 0.9

306 0.9

308.8 0.9

311.6 0.9

314.4 0.9

317.2 0.9

320 0.9

322.7 0.9

325.4 0.9

151.4 0.8

152.7 0.8

153.8 0.7

155 0.8

156.3 0.8

157.6 0.9

159 0.8

160.3 0.8

161.7 0.8

163 0.8

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

4.8

4.8

4.7

4.7

4.6

4.5

4.5

4.4

4.3

4.3

1549 950 599

1594 1010 584

1628 1036 592

1656 1045 611

1652 1023 629

1633 992 641

1615 977 639

1609 985 624

1589 977 611

1544 943 601


Ga i n e s v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL

July 2012

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

24.6 4.4 13.3 11.3

25.6 4.2 13.8 11.8

26.7 4.2 14.4 12.3

27.8 4.2 14.9 12.9

29 4.1 15.5 13.5

30.2 4.2 16.1 14.1

31.4 4.1 16.8 14.7

32.7 4.1 17.4 15.3

34.1 4.1 18.1 15.9

35.5 4.2 18.9 16.6

14.8 2.3

15.1 2.1

15.5 2.2

15.8 2.2

16.1 2.1

16.5 2.2

16.8 2.1

17.2 2.1

17.5 2

17.9 2.1

74.9 45.2

77.4 45.8

80 46.4

82.7 47

85.5 47.6

88.4 48.3

91.3 48.9

94.3 49.5

97.4 50.1

100.7 50.8

87.7 3.5

90.7 3.5

93.8 3.4

97 3.4

100.3 3.4

103.7 3.4

107.2 3.4

110.8 3.4

114.6 3.4

118.4 3.3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

150.9 0.8

151.7 0.5

152.5 0.5

153.3 0.6

154.1 0.5

155 0.6

155.9 0.6

156.9 0.7

157.8 0.5

158.8 0.7

4.3 -1

4.3 -0.8

4.2 -0.9

4.2 -0.8

4.2 -0.7

4.1 -0.6

4.1 -0.4

4.1 -0.4

4.1 -0.4

4.1 -0.4

146.6 0.8

147.4 0.6

148.2 0.6

149.1 0.6

150 0.6

150.9 0.6

151.8 0.6

152.8 0.7

153.7 0.6

154.8 0.7

6.9 1.8

7 1.2

7.1 1.2

7.2 1.4

7.3 1.3

7.4 1.3

7.5 1.1

7.5 0.4

7.5 0.6

7.6 1

19.6 0.1

19.6 -0.1

19.6 -0.1

19.6 0

19.6 0

19.6 0.1

19.6 0.1

19.6 0.1

19.7 0.2

19.7 0.2

3 13.6 2.8

3 13.6 2.8

3 13.6 2.8

3 13.6 2.8

3 13.7 2.7

3 13.7 2.7

3 13.7 2.7

3 13.8 2.7

3 13.8 2.6

3 13.8 2.6

2.1 2

2.1 2

2.2 2.2

2.2 2.3

2.3 2.2

2.3 2.2

2.4 2.3

2.4 2.3

2.5 2.3

2.5 2.3

6.7 0.9

6.8 0.7

6.8 0.8

6.9 0.8

6.9 0.7

7 0.7

7 0.6

7 0.1

7 -0.2

7 -0.3

22.5 2.7

22.9 2

23.4 1.9

23.8 1.9

24.2 1.9

24.7 1.8

25.1 1.8

25.7 2.2

26.3 2.5

27 2.7

26 0.4

26.1 0.1

26.1 0.1

26.1 0.2

26.2 0.1

26.2 0.2

26.3 0.2

26.3 0.3

26.4 0.3

26.5 0.4

12.3 0.5

12.3 0.3

12.4 0.4

12.4 0.4

12.5 0.3

12.5 0.4

12.6 0.4

12.6 0.2

12.6 0.3

12.7 0.2

4.6 0.3

4.7 0.1

4.7 0.1

4.7 0.2

4.7 0

4.7 0

4.7 0

4.7 -0.1

4.7 -0.2

4.6 -0.3

4.5 1.1

4.6 1.2

4.6 1.2

4.7 1.2

4.7 1.1

4.8 1

4.8 0.9

5 4.6

4.9 -2.6

5 1.2

41.3 0.2

41.4 0.2

41.5 0.2

41.6 0.2

41.7 0.2

41.8 0.2

41.8 0.2

41.9 0.2

42 0.2

42.1 0.2

13726.8

14020

14328.3

14652.4

14991.9

15335.3

15694.6

16083.9

16487.4

16921.1

328.2 0.8

330.9 0.8

333.6 0.8

336.3 0.8

339 0.8

341.7 0.8

344.4 0.8

347.1 0.8

349.8 0.8

352.2 0.7

164.3 0.8

165.5 0.8

166.8 0.7

168 0.7

169.1 0.7

170.2 0.7

171.4 0.7

172.4 0.6

173.4 0.6

174.4 0.5

4.2

4.2

4.2

4.1

4.1

4.1

4.1

4.1

4.1

4.1

1522 937 585

1522 952 570

1527 971 556

1524 983 542

1497 974 523

1472 963 509

1452 953 499

1430 941 489

1416 941 476

1401 935 466

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

53


Jackso nvi lle

Profiles

Outlook Summaries

The Jacksonville MSA is comprised of Baker, Clay, Duval, Nassau and St. Johns counties. It is located on the northeast coast of Florida and is home to several major U.S. military bases, such as the Jacksonville Naval Air Station, as well as shipyards, the University of North Florida, and the Jacksonville International Airport.

The Jacksonville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to see strong growth in most of the economic indicators, relative to the other MSAs studied. Personal income will see an average growth rate of 5.0 percent, the third highest of the twelve MSAs. The per capita income level will also be the third highest at 37.9. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.9 percent, while average annual wage is expected to be at a level of 51.2. Population growth will be moderate at an average annual rate of 1.5 percent. Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 58,377.65 (Mill). Employment growth is expected to be 2.0 percent annually. Unemployment will average 7.8 percent in the MSA. The fastest growing sector in the Jacksonville MSA will be Construction and Mining, which will see an average annual growth rate of 6.1 percent. Following that sector is the Professional and Business Services sector, with an annual growth rate of 4.0 percent, and then the Trade, Transportation, and Utilities sector with a 2.2 percent growth rate. The State and Local Government and the Federal Government sectors will experience a decline of -0.1 and -1.9 percent, respectively.

Quick Facts:

• Metro population estimate of 1,360,251 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Baker County population estimate of 27,154 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Clay County population estimate of 192,370 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Duval County population estimate of 870,709 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Nassau County population estimate of 74,195 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • St. Johns County population estimate of 195,823 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • A civilian labor force of 690,295 in April of 2012 for the Metro area (Florida Regional Economic Database). • An unemployment rate of 7.9% not seasonally adjusted for the entire Metro in April of 2012. This amounts to 54,534 unemployed people (Florida Regional Economic Database). Top Area Employers:

• • • • • • • • • •

Naval Air Station Jacksonville – 25,240 Duval County Public Schools – 14,480 Naval Station Mayport – 12,670 City of Jacksonville – 8,820 Baptist Health Systems – 8,270 Bank of America Merrill Lynch – 6,400 Blue Cross & Blue Shield of Florida – 6,000 Citibank (Citi-cards) – 5,000 Mayo Clinic – 4,970 United Parcel Service – 4,100

Source: Duval County Public Schools - City of Jacksonville and Chamber of Commerce Records 54

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

Metro News Summaries Outsourcing Company Alorica to lay off 289 in Palatka • Alorica, a customer management and outsourcing company, is closing its Palataka facility and laying off all 289 employees.

• A company spokeswoman described the layoffs as a result of their clients’ changing business requirements. • The Chino, California based company’s 40 domestic near shore and offshore management centers, include seven others in Florida.

Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, April 30, 2012


J ac k s o n v i l l e

EverBank files IPO

• Jacksonville-based EverBank Financial Corp, the largest bank in the state, became a publicly traded company on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol “EVER.” • The initial public offering included 19.2 million shares at $10 per share. EverBank directors and executive officers will retain 41.06% of the bank’s common shares.

• The bank remains one of the strongest in NE Florida, and expects a net income between $10 million and $13 million for Q1 2012, compared to $9.4 million Q1 2011. Total assets are expected to increase from $11.8 billion Q1 2011 to $13.8 billion Q1 2012.

Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, May 2, 2012 Mile Point heads to Congress

• The Mile Point project will head to Congress after securing all necessary signatures on the Army Corps of Engineers’ Chief of Engineers Report.

• The new $16.7 million primary care center is to be built near the intersection of Interstate 294 East Beltway and Gate Parkway, and will open in 2013.

Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, May 25, 2012

Disney to use Jacksonville Port to ship to Orlando Parks

• On June 19, Walt Disney Parks and Resorts began using Jacksonville’s port to ship merchandise to its Central Florida Theme Parks.

• The port will handle 75% of the merchandise, which had previously been routed through Savannah, Georgia.

• The Disney goods will represent less than 1% of Jacksonville business, but Governor Scott believes it demonstrates Florida’s ports can handle a larger share of cargo bound for Florida-based businesses.

Source: The Florida Times Union, June 19, 2012

• The project plans to alleviate crosscurrents from the Mile Point shore, which currently poses as an obstacle to port growth by preventing large ships from docking nearly 2/3 of days.

• The project is currently in the design phase, and is expected to be completed by April 2013.

Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, May 3, 2012

Mayo Clinic investing $100M to accommodate growth

• Mayo Clinic Florida plans to invest nearly $100 million to add on to the existing hospital and develop a new primary care center. • An $80 million hospital expansion will add two floors and 90 beds, allowing the nearly 100% occupied building to grow for the next five years.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

55


Jackso nvi lle Jacksonville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manuf acturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Inf ormation Financial Activities Prof essional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

(percent)

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 FL Unemployment Rate Jacksonville Unemployment Rate

160000.0 140000.0 120000.0 100000.0 80000.0 60000.0 40000.0 20000.0

Jacksonville Payroll Employment 1000.0

(Thousands)

900.0

1.6

1.8

(Millions 2000 $)

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 Real Gross Metro Product

Jacksonville Real Personal Income 10.0%

(percent change year ago)

0.0%

700.0 600.0

-5.0%

500.0

56

1.4

5.0%

800.0

400.0

1.2

Jacksonville Real Gross Metro Product

Florida & Jacksonville Unemployment Rate 12.0%

1

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 Jacksonville Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

-10.0%

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 Real Personal Income


J ac k s o n v i l l e

Quarterly Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

July 2012 Forecast

2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

57.8 3.4 30 27.8

58.6 4.4 30.4 28.2

59.4 4.9 30.8 28.6

60 5 31.2 28.9

60.7 5 31.5 29.2

61.4 4.7 31.8 29.6

62.1 4.5 32.2 29.9

63.1 5.1 32.6 30.5

63.8 5.1 33 30.9

64.7 5.4 33.4 31.3

65.6 5.7 33.8 31.8

66.6 5.7 34.3 32.4

67.6 5.9 34.7 32.9

68.5 5.9 35.2 33.4

69.5 5.9 35.6 33.9

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

50.1 1.9

50.8 3.4

51.3 4

51.7 4.4

52.2 4.3

52.6 3.5

53 3.2

53.5 3.4

53.9 3.1

54.3 3.3

54.9 3.6

55.5 3.7

56 4

56.5 4.1

57.1 4.1

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

42.1 36.5

42.5 36.9

43 37.1

43.3 37.3

43.6 37.5

43.9 37.6

44.3 37.7

44.8 38

45.1 38.1

45.5 38.2

45.9 38.4

46.5 38.7

46.9 38.9

47.4 39.1

47.8 39.3

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

49 3.4

49.3 2.7

49.7 2.6

50 2.7

50.3 2.7

50.6 2.5

50.9 2.4

51.3 2.6

51.6 2.7

52 2.8

52.4 2.9

52.8 2.9

53.2 3

53.6 3

53.9 2.9

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

594.8 0.8

597.7 1.6

601.4 1.5

605.1 2

608.1 2.2

611.1 2.2

613.9 2.1

616.8 1.9

620.2 2

623.8 2.1

627.9 2.3

631.5 2.4

635.1 2.4

638.9 2.4

642.9 2.4

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

26.8 -0.8

26.9 0.9

27 1.3

27.1 1.2

27.4 2.4

27.6 2.7

27.8 3.2

28 3.4

28.2 2.9

28.4 2.7

28.6 2.6

28.7 2.4

28.8 2.1

28.9 1.7

28.9 1.3

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

568 0.9

570.8 1.6

574.4 1.5

578 2.1

580.7 2.2

583.5 2.2

586.1 2

588.8 1.9

592 1.9

595.4 2

599.3 2.3

602.8 2.4

606.3 2.4

610 2.5

613.9 2.4

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

25.9 -3.8

25.8 -1.3

25.9 -1.5

26.1 0.2

26.4 2.2

26.9 4.1

27.5 6.2

28.2 8.1

29 9.6

29.8 10.8

30.8 12

31.9 13

32.9 13.5

33.9 13.7

34.8 12.9

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

127.4 2.2

128.2 2.9

129 2.5

129.9 2.2

130.5 2.4

131.4 2.5

132 2.3

132.4 1.9

133 1.9

133.7 1.8

134.5 1.9

135 2

135.6 1.9

136.2 1.9

137.1 2

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

25.4 72.1 30

25.5 72.4 30.2

25.8 72.8 30.4

26 73 30.8

26.1 73.1 31.1

26.3 73.4 31.4

26.5 73.5 31.6

26.6 73.3 31.8

26.7 73.4 32

27 73.5 32.3

27.2 73.7 32.6

27.4 73.8 32.9

27.6 74 33.1

27.8 74.3 33.3

28 74.7 33.5

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

9.6 0.7

9.6 1.5

9.7 1

9.8 2.3

9.9 3.9

10 4.5

10 3.2

10.1 3

10.1 2

10.1 1.3

10.2 1.3

10.3 1.5

10.3 1.5

10.3 1.8

10.3 1.6

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

58.2 0.1

58.5 1.5

58.9 1.5

59.2 2.4

59.4 2

59.5 1.8

59.6 1.3

59.6 0.7

59.6 0.4

59.6 0.2

59.6 0

59.6 0

59.7 0.1

59.9 0.4

59.9 0.5

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

93.1 2.5

93.7 2.2

95.1 1.4

96.6 4

97.7 4.9

98.5 5.1

99.1 4.2

99.7 3.2

101 3.4

102.6 4.2

104.3 5.3

105.5 5.8

106.7 5.6

107.8 5.1

109 4.5

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

88.5 1.4

89.2 1.9

89.6 2.2

89.7 1.7

89.9 1.6

90.2 1.2

90.5 1

91.2 1.7

91.7 2

92 2

92.5 2.2

92.9 1.9

93.6 2.1

94.3 2.5

95 2.8

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

66.4 1.7

67 3.2

67.5 3.2

68 3.3

68.3 2.9

68.5 2.3

68.8 1.9

69.1 1.5

69.1 1.1

69 0.6

68.9 0.1

69 -0.1

68.9 -0.2

68.9 -0.2

69 0

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

23 -1.7

23.1 -0.4

23.2 0.3

23.3 1.7

23.4 1.4

23.4 1.4

23.5 1.3

23.6 0.9

23.6 0.9

23.6 0.8

23.6 0.4

23.6 0.1

23.6 0

23.6 -0.2

23.6 0

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

17.3 -0.8

17.2 0.5

17.1 -0.5

17 -2.6

16.9 -2.8

16.7 -2.9

16.6 -2.8

16.5 -2.9

16.4 -2.8

16.3 -2.7

16.2 -2.5

16.1 -2.3

16.1 -2

16 -1.7

16 -1.5

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

58.5 -1.7

58.4 -1.4

58.3 -1

58.3 -0.2

58.3 -0.3

58.3 -0.2

58.3 0

58.4 0.2

58.5 0.3

58.6 0.5

58.7 0.7

58.8 0.7

59 0.9

59.1 1

59.3 0.9

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil)

55604 55989.2 56440.7 56823.3 57164.8 57501.7 57878.2 58257.7

58749 59298.2 59913.9 60465.7 61013.8 61576.1 62137.8

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1373.5 1

1378 1.1

1382.6 1.2

1387.5 1.3

1392.6 1.4

1397.8 1.4

1403.2 1.5

1408.6 1.5

1414.5 1.6

1421.2 1.7

1428 1.8

1434.5 1.8

1440.7 1.9

1447 1.8

1453.4 1.8

696.3 0.8

698.7 1

701.2 0.9

702.9 1.1

704.8 1.2

706.6 1.1

709.5 1.2

711.6 1.2

713.7 1.3

715.8 1.3

717.8 1.2

719.7 1.1

722.4 1.2

725.5 1.4

727.7 1.4

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

8

8

7.9

7.9

8

8

8

7.9

7.8

7.8

7.7

7.5

7.3

7.2

7

4907 3774 1132

5399 3796 1603

5838 3792 2046

6110 3928 2181

6642 4334 2308

7268 4795 2473

7860 5269 2591

8397 5667 2731

9110 6269 2840

9949 6949 3000

10745 7517 3229

11511 8071 3440

12211 8626 3585

12794 9067 3727

13212 9339 3873

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

57


Jackso nvi lle

Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

July 2012

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

38.5 6.1 22.4 16.2

41.8 8.5 23.9 17.9

45.6 9 25.6 20

50.3 10.2 27.9 22.3

52.4 4.3 29.1 23.3

53.9 2.9 28.8 25.2

51.3 -5 27.4 23.9

53.3 4.1 27.9 25.4

56 5 29 27

58.3 4 30.2 28

40.7 4

43.1 5.8

45.6 5.9

48.9 7.3

49.7 1.5

49.5 -0.4

47 -5.1

48 2.2

49.2 2.5

50.5 2.6

32.2 34

34.1 35.1

36.4 36.4

39.1 38.1

40.1 38

40.7 37.4

38.3 35.1

39.5 35.6

41.1 36.1

42.3 36.7

38 6.4

39.5 4.2

40.8 3.2

43 5.5

44.3 3

44.8 1.1

45.2 0.8

46.4 2.8

47.7 2.8

49.2 3.1

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

58

563 0.4

578.5 2.8

603.8 4.4

624.8 3.5

633.9 1.5

621.7 -1.9

586.5 -5.7

582.9 -0.6

590.1 1.2

596.7 1.1

33.3 -3.1

33.3 -0.2

33.5 0.8

33.3 -0.8

32.6 -2.2

31.9 -1.9

28.7 -10.1

26.9 -6.2

26.8 -0.5

26.9 0.2

529.7 0.7

545.3 2.9

570.3 4.6

591.5 3.7

601.4 1.7

589.8 -1.9

557.7 -5.4

556 -0.3

563.3 1.3

569.9 1.2

36.6 7.4

40.9 11.6

45.4 11

50 10.3

49.2 -1.6

43 -12.6

32.8 -23.8

28.5 -13

26.6 -6.8

25.9 -2.5

124.9 0.4

128.1 2.5

132.7 3.6

136.9 3.1

139.2 1.7

136.4 -2.1

126.9 -7

124.3 -2

124.8 0.4

127.9 2.5

26.8 68.8 29.3

26.9 71.2 30.1

27.8 73.9 31.1

29.9 74.8 32.2

30.2 76.5 32.5

28.6 75.5 32.3

26.7 69.5 30.7

25.6 68.7 30

25.2 69.5 30.1

25.5 72.4 30.1

12.4 -6.1

11.6 -6.4

11.9 2.4

11.1 -6.8

10.2 -8.5

10.2 0.7

10.3 1.2

10.2 -1.7

9.6 -6

9.6 0.5

57.6 -0.1

58.4 1.4

59.3 1.4

59.8 1

60.2 0.5

59.8 -0.7

55.7 -6.7

55.9 0.3

57.9 3.6

58.3 0.7

82.8 -2.9

82.5 -0.3

88.2 6.8

95.5 8.3

94.4 -1.2

88.1 -6.6

83.2 -5.5

86.1 3.5

91.7 6.5

93.7 2.1

64.7 1.9

68 5

71.3 4.9

74.5 4.5

77.9 4.6

81.7 4.9

83.7 2.4

85.6 2.3

87.4 2.1

88.9 1.7

53.3 1.6

56.3 5.5

60.4 7.3

62.1 2.9

65.9 6.1

67.3 2.1

64.7 -3.9

64.4 -0.5

65.2 1.3

66.7 2.3

25.7 3

26.4 2.7

26.8 1.5

27.6 3.1

28.3 2.3

26.6 -5.9

24 -9.7

23.8 -0.7

23.4 -2

23.1 -1.2

18 1.5

17.8 -1.2

17.4 -2.3

16.9 -2.6

17 0.6

17.1 0.6

17.5 2.3

18 2.8

17.3 -3.9

17.3 -0.3

53.6 1.6

55.4 3.3

57.1 3

57.1 0

59.2 3.7

59.5 0.6

58.8 -1.2

59 0.3

59.3 0.5

58.4 -1.6

47589.2

49551.8

52431.6

54948.4

55671.1

54454.6

53324.6

54269.7

54872.7

55815.5

1197.2 2

1225.9 2.4

1253.6 2.3

1284.8 2.5

1308.2 1.8

1324 1.2

1336.9 1

1349.4 0.9

1361.9 0.9

1376 1

599.4 0.3

607.5 1.4

630.4 3.8

650.3 3.2

677.2 4.1

688.2 1.6

679.9 -1.2

685.1 0.8

692.5 1.1

697.9 0.8

5

4.6

3.7

3.2

3.8

5.8

9.8

10.9

10.1

8.1

15544 13143 2402

18124 14179 3944

23970 18818 5152

16722 12299 4423

10462 7517 2944

7054 5174 1879

4938 3403 1535

3704 3553 151

3728 3286 442

5234 3801 1433

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012


J ac k s o n v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

July 2012

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

61.1 4.8 31.7 29.4

64.3 5.3 33.2 31.1

68.1 5.8 35 33.1

72.2 6.1 36.7 35.5

76.4 5.8 38.7 37.8

80.7 5.6 40.6 40.1

85 5.3 42.5 42.5

89.3 5 44.4 44.9

93.6 4.9 46.4 47.2

98.5 5.1 48.6 49.8

52.4 3.8

54.1 3.4

56.3 4

58.8 4.5

61.3 4.3

63.8 4.1

66.2 3.9

68.6 3.5

70.8 3.2

73.2 3.5

43.8 37.5

45.3 38.2

47.1 39

49.1 40

51.1 41

53.1 42

55 42.8

56.8 43.6

58.6 44.3

60.6 45.1

50.5 2.6

51.8 2.7

53.4 3

54.9 2.8

56.6 3.1

58.5 3.3

60.4 3.4

62.4 3.2

64.4 3.3

66.6 3.3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

609.6 2.2

622.1 2.1

637.1 2.4

651.6 2.3

665.5 2.1

677.1 1.7

686.2 1.3

694.9 1.3

703.5 1.2

713.3 1.4

27.5 2.4

28.3 2.9

28.8 1.8

28.9 0.3

28.8 -0.4

28.7 -0.2

28.6 -0.3

28.6 -0.2

28.5 -0.4

28.3 -0.4

582.1 2.1

593.8 2

608.3 2.4

622.7 2.4

636.7 2.2

648.3 1.8

657.5 1.4

666.4 1.3

675 1.3

685 1.5

26.7 3.2

29.5 10.2

33.4 13.3

36.6 9.7

38.9 6.2

40.4 4

41.2 1.9

41.7 1.3

42.4 1.6

43 1.4

131 2.4

133.4 1.9

136 1.9

138.8 2.1

141.3 1.8

142.9 1.1

143.5 0.5

143.8 0.2

143.9 0.1

144.3 0.2

26.2 73.2 31.2

26.9 73.5 32.2

27.7 74.2 33.2

28.4 75.3 34.2

29.2 76 35.2

29.8 76.3 35.9

30.2 76.5 36.1

30.6 76.5 36.1

30.9 76.2 36.3

31.2 76 36.5

9.9 3.5

10.1 1.9

10.3 1.6

10.4 1.2

10.6 1.9

10.8 2

11 1.9

11.2 1.4

11.4 1.9

11.7 2.1

59.4 1.9

59.6 0.3

59.8 0.3

60.2 0.7

61.2 1.5

62 1.4

62.7 1

63.1 0.8

63.5 0.6

64.1 0.9

98 4.5

101.9 4

107.2 5.2

111.3 3.8

116.1 4.3

120.9 4.1

125.4 3.7

130 3.7

136.4 4.9

143.3 5.1

90.1 1.4

91.8 2

94 2.3

97.2 3.4

99.8 2.7

101.9 2

103.6 1.8

105.4 1.6

106.3 0.9

107 0.7

68.4 2.6

69 0.8

68.9 -0.1

68.9 0

68.8 -0.2

68.5 -0.4

68.3 -0.3

67.9 -0.6

67.5 -0.5

67.1 -0.6

23.4 1.5

23.6 0.8

23.6 0

23.7 0.4

23.8 0.7

24 0.6

24.1 0.5

24.2 0.5

24.3 0.4

24.4 0.3

16.8 -2.8

16.3 -2.7

16 -1.9

15.9 -1

15.7 -0.8

15.6 -0.7

15.6 -0.4

16.3 4.4

15.9 -2.4

15.9 0.4

58.3 -0.2

58.5 0.4

59.1 0.9

59.6 1

60.4 1.2

61.3 1.5

62.1 1.3

62.7 1

63.3 1

64.2 1.3

57342

59054.7

61298.4

63458

65617.6

67737.5

69814.9

71855.7

73710.8

75745.9

1395.3 1.4

1418.1 1.6

1443.9 1.8

1469.5 1.8

1494.9 1.7

1520.2 1.7

1546.3 1.7

1572.5 1.7

1598.7 1.7

1625.1 1.6

705.9 1.2

714.7 1.2

723.8 1.3

734.3 1.5

745.6 1.5

756.7 1.5

766.7 1.3

776.4 1.3

785.9 1.2

795.8 1.3

8

7.8

7.3

6.6

6.2

5.8

5.5

5.4

5.4

5.4

6970 4582 2388

9550 6600 2950

12432 8776 3656

14159 9699 4460

15069 10028 5041

14928 9970 4958

14736 9947 4789

14515 9961 4554

14075 9781 4294

13770 9642 4128

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

59


Jackso nvi lle

Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

July 2012

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

103.6 5.3 50.9 52.8

109.1 5.2 53.2 55.9

114.8 5.3 55.8 59.1

120.9 5.3 58.7 62.3

127.4 5.4 61.7 65.8

134.1 5.3 64.9 69.2

141.2 5.3 68.5 72.7

148.5 5.2 72.1 76.4

156.5 5.3 76.1 80.4

165 5.4 80.4 84.6

75.7 3.4

78.2 3.3

80.8 3.3

83.5 3.3

86.4 3.4

89.2 3.3

92.1 3.3

95.1 3.2

98.2 3.3

101.5 3.4

62.7 45.9

65 46.6

67.3 47.4

69.8 48.2

72.4 49.1

75.1 49.9

77.9 50.8

80.7 51.6

83.8 52.6

87.1 53.6

68.9 3.4

71.3 3.5

73.8 3.5

76.4 3.6

79.2 3.6

82 3.6

85 3.7

88.1 3.6

91.4 3.7

94.6 3.6

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

60

722.1 1.2

729.4 1

739 1.3

750.5 1.5

762.4 1.6

774.8 1.6

788.5 1.8

802.2 1.7

816.4 1.8

832.7 2

28.1 -1

27.8 -1

27.4 -1.3

27 -1.4

26.7 -1.3

26.3 -1.4

26 -1.3

25.7 -1.2

25.4 -1

25.1 -1.1

694 1.3

701.6 1.1

711.6 1.4

723.4 1.7

735.8 1.7

748.6 1.7

762.5 1.9

776.5 1.8

791.1 1.9

807.6 2.1

43.8 1.8

44.8 2.2

46 2.8

47.4 3

48.7 2.7

49.7 2.2

50.7 1.9

51.7 2.1

53.2 2.8

54.7 2.9

144.9 0.4

145.7 0.5

146.7 0.7

147.7 0.7

148.9 0.8

150.1 0.8

151.2 0.8

151.9 0.4

152.7 0.5

153.3 0.4

31.5 75.9 36.9

31.7 75.9 37.4

32 76.1 37.9

32.3 76.4 38.3

32.6 77 38.7

32.7 77.8 38.9

32.8 78.4 39.3

32.9 78.9 39.4

33.1 79.4 39.6

33.1 79.9 39.6

11.8 1.1

11.8 0.5

11.9 0.9

12.1 1.4

12.4 1.9

12.6 2.2

12.9 2.4

13.2 2

13.5 2.1

13.8 2.1

64.7 1

65.4 1

66.1 1.2

67 1.3

67.9 1.5

69.1 1.7

70.3 1.7

71.5 1.7

72.7 1.7

73.9 1.6

148.6 3.7

152 2.3

156.8 3.2

162.7 3.7

168 3.3

173.6 3.3

180.1 3.7

186.5 3.5

194.8 4.4

204.2 4.9

107.8 0.7

108.4 0.6

109.2 0.7

110.3 1

111.7 1.3

113.4 1.4

115.1 1.5

116.7 1.4

118.2 1.3

119.8 1.3

66.8 -0.4

66.9 0

67 0.2

67.4 0.6

68.1 1.1

69 1.3

69.9 1.4

70.7 1.1

71.7 1.3

72.6 1.3

24.6 0.7

24.8 0.9

25.1 1.2

25.4 1.2

25.7 1.2

26 1.3

26.4 1.4

26.7 1.3

27 1.1

27.2 0.8

16.1 0.9

16.3 1.2

16.5 1.1

16.6 1

16.8 1

16.9 0.9

17.1 0.8

18.3 7.1

17.6 -4.1

17.7 0.9

64.9 1.2

65.6 1

66.3 1

66.9 1

67.5 1

68.1 0.9

68.8 0.9

69.3 0.8

69.9 0.8

70.4 0.8

78123

80600.2

83230.7

85927.6

88617.4

91362.8

94244.8

97314.7

100518

103853

1651.8 1.6

1678.5 1.6

1705.4 1.6

1732.3 1.6

1759.3 1.6

1786.5 1.5

1813.6 1.5

1840.7 1.5

1867.8 1.5

1894.9 1.4

806.9 1.4

818.2 1.4

828.8 1.3

840.1 1.4

852 1.4

864.3 1.4

876.8 1.4

889.4 1.4

902.2 1.4

915.1 1.4

5.3

5.2

5.1

5

4.9

4.9

4.8

4.7

4.6

4.6

13829 9893 3936

14363 10558 3804

14677 10876 3802

14849 11022 3827

14683 10814 3869

14426 10525 3902

14243 10390 3852

14242 10499 3743

14083 10443 3641

13676 10112 3564

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012


J ac k s o n v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

July 2012

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

173.6 5.2 84.4 89.1

182.2 5 88.4 93.8

191.5 5.1 92.6 98.9

201.2 5.1 96.9 104.3

211.2 5 101.5 109.8

221.9 5 106.2 115.7

232.9 5 111.1 121.8

244.2 4.9 116.3 128

256.5 5 122 134.5

269.6 5.1 128.2 141.5

104.7 3.1

107.8 2.9

111 3

114.4 3

117.7 2.9

121.2 3

124.7 2.9

128.2 2.8

132 2.9

136 3

90.3 54.5

93.5 55.3

96.9 56.2

100.5 57.1

104.1 58

107.9 58.9

111.7 59.9

115.7 60.7

120 61.7

124.5 62.8

98 3.5

101.4 3.5

104.9 3.5

108.6 3.5

112.3 3.5

116.2 3.4

120.2 3.4

124.3 3.4

128.9 3.7

133.6 3.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

845.3 1.5

855.4 1.2

865.7 1.2

876.5 1.2

886.9 1.2

897.4 1.2

908.3 1.2

919.6 1.2

930.6 1.2

943.2 1.3

24.8 -1.2

24.6 -1.1

24.3 -1.1

24.1 -1

23.8 -0.9

23.6 -0.9

23.5 -0.6

23.3 -0.6

23.2 -0.6

23.1 -0.6

820.5 1.6

830.9 1.3

841.4 1.3

852.4 1.3

863 1.2

873.8 1.2

884.8 1.3

896.2 1.3

907.4 1.2

920.1 1.4

56.1 2.5

57.1 1.9

58.2 1.9

59.5 2.1

60.7 2.1

61.9 2

63.1 1.9

63.9 1.2

64.9 1.5

66 1.8

153.8 0.3

153.9 0.1

154 0.1

154.1 0.1

154.3 0.1

154.5 0.1

154.7 0.2

154.9 0.1

155.3 0.2

155.9 0.4

33.2 80.4 39.6

33.1 80.8 39.4

33.1 81.2 39.1

33 81.6 38.8

33 82.1 38.5

32.9 82.7 38.2

32.8 83.2 37.8

32.9 83.7 37.5

33.1 84.2 37.2

33.4 84.6 37

14 2.1

14.3 2.2

14.7 2.4

15 2.4

15.4 2.4

15.8 2.4

16.1 2.5

16.5 2.4

16.9 2.4

17.3 2.4

75 1.5

75.9 1.3

77 1.4

78.1 1.4

79.1 1.3

80.1 1.2

81 1.2

81.5 0.7

81.8 0.4

82.1 0.3

211 3.3

216.5 2.6

221.9 2.5

227.4 2.5

232.9 2.4

238.2 2.3

243.8 2.4

250 2.5

257.2 2.9

264.8 3

120.9 1

121.8 0.7

122.7 0.7

123.6 0.8

124.5 0.7

125.6 0.8

126.5 0.8

127.6 0.8

128.7 0.9

129.9 0.9

73.5 1.2

74.1 0.9

74.9 1.1

75.7 1

76.5 1

77.3 1.1

78.1 1.1

78.8 0.9

79.6 1

80.3 0.9

27.5 0.9

27.7 0.8

27.9 0.8

28.2 0.9

28.4 0.7

28.5 0.6

28.7 0.7

28.9 0.6

29.1 0.5

29.2 0.4

17.8 0.8

18 0.8

18.1 0.9

18.3 0.8

18.4 0.8

18.6 0.7

18.7 0.6

19.5 4.6

18.9 -3.2

19.1 0.9

70.9 0.7

71.4 0.7

71.9 0.7

72.4 0.7

72.9 0.7

73.4 0.7

74 0.7

74.5 0.7

75 0.7

75.5 0.7

107008

110142

113410

116858

120437

124080

127896

131897

136178

140702

1921.9 1.4

1948.9 1.4

1975.8 1.4

2002.8 1.4

2029.7 1.3

2056.8 1.3

2083.9 1.3

2111 1.3

2138.3 1.3

2165.6 1.3

927.9 1.4

940.7 1.4

953.4 1.4

966.1 1.3

978.7 1.3

991.3 1.3

1004.1 1.3

1016.3 1.2

1028.3 1.2

1040.2 1.2

4.5

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

13560 10087 3473

13662 10282 3381

13811 10504 3307

13882 10658 3224

13692 10577 3116

13499 10462 3037

13355 10373 2982

13195 10269 2926

13161 10302 2859

13081 10275 2805

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

61


Lak e l an d

Profiles

Outlook Summaries

The Lakeland MSA is comprised only of Polk County. It is located in the western-center of the state and is heavily agriculturally based, especially in citrus. It is home to a few attractions such as Fantasy of Flight and Legoland Florida. Also, the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Indians conduct spring training in Lakeland and Winter Haven, respectively.

The Lakeland Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show relatively low levels of growth in most of the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow 4.7 percent annually, while the per capita income level will be at 29.9, the lowest of the twelve MSAs. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.7 percent, and the average annual wage level is expected to be at 43.0, the third lowest of the studied areas. Population growth is expected to average 1.5 percent annually. Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 17,004.20 (Mill). Employment growth is expected to be 1.4 percent annually. The unemployment rate for the metro will average 9.3 percent, the second highest of the twelve forecasted MSAs. The Construction and Mining sector is expected to be the fastest growing sector in the area, averaging 5.7 percent average annual growth. This is followed by the Professional and Business Services sector averaging a growth rate of 3.5 percent a year. State and Local Government, Financial, and Federal Government sectors will experience a decline, with an annual growth rate of -0.2 percent, -0.8 percent, and -4.0 percent respectively.

Quick Facts:

• Population estimate of 609,492 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• A civilian labor force of 270,500 in April of 2012 (Florida Regional Economic Database).

• An unemployment rate of 9.1% not seasonally adjusted in April of 2012. This amounts to 24,616 unemployed people (Florida Regional Economic Database). Top Area Employers:

• Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 6,644

• Lakeland Regional Medical Center – 4,540 • City of Lakeland – 2,600 • GEICO – 2,005

• Watson Clinic – 1,600

Metro News Summaries

• Rooms To Go – 900

Winter Haven commissioner proposes expedited permits for smaller developments

• GC Services – 1,000

• Watkins Motor Lines – 848 • Summit Consulting – 654

• Saddle Creek Corporation – 625 Source: Lakeland Economic Development Council

• In an effort to increase economic development incentives, Winter Haven officials proposed shortening the process of receiving city permits for future small developments. • The plan cuts the review and approval process from 15 days to 10, according to Community and Economic Development Director David Dickey. The city hopes to include state permitting industries in the expedited process. • The process will only be extended to the industries identified in a report by Angelou Economics as “Winter Haven’s sweet spot.”

62

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012


La k e l a n d

These are medical services, software, and information technologies, logistics and distribution, tourism, agribusiness, and business and professional services.

• None of the city’s seven commissioners have voiced support for selling the utility, but all support a move to let voters make a decision on a charter change.

Source: The Lakeland Ledger, April 23, 2012

Source: The Lakeland Ledger, June 23, 2012

Publix slips in Fortune 500 ranking

USF preparing phase-out of Lakeland operation

• World Fuel Services Corp. beat out Publix Super Markets Inc. for the designation as top Fortune 500 Company in Florida.

• Lakeland-based Publix ranks 106 overall on the list with $27.2 billion in revenue. The firm is privately owned by thousands of employee shareholders.

Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, May 7, 2012 Sykes Enterprises CEO: 600 jobs coming to Lakeland

• Sykes Enterprises announced plans to add a new customer service call center that will add 600 new jobs to Lakeland.

• USF Lakeland campus is in the final stages of switching to the new 12th state University, Florida Polytechnic University.

• The change will affect 62 faculty members and 80 employees of the Lakeland campus. Most were offered one-year positions in similar role at the joint-use campus USF shares with Polk State College.

• USF Lakeland will turn its budget over to FPU and transfer property and equipment.

Source: The Lakeland Ledger, June 28, 2012

• The 92,000-square-foot facility will be located at the former FedEx National LTL facility, and will begin operations in the third quarter. • The firm chose Lakeland for the expansion because of its sizable untapped labor pool for customer service work.

Source: The Lakeland Ledger, May 30, 2012

Businessmen, officials to meet on potential sale of Lakeland Electric

• Steve Scruggs, executive director of the Lakeland Economic Development Council, and Steve Barnett, vice chairman of Publix Super Markets Inc., have scheduled a second-round of private meetings with city commissioners and the mayor. • Scruggs and Barnett want to reduce the 66% of voter approval required by the city’s charter to sell a public utility. This comes after large electric companies TECO and FLP have inquired about the potential sale of Lakeland Electric.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

63


Lak e l an d Lakeland MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manuf acturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Inf ormation Financial Activities Prof essional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

Florida & Lakeland Unemployment Rate (percent)

14.0% 12.0%

2

2.5

Lakeland Real Gross Metro Product 40000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

35000.0 25000.0 20000.0 15000.0 10000.0

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 FL Unemployment Rate Lakeland Unemployment Rate

5000.0

280.0

(Thousands)

260.0 240.0 220.0 200.0 180.0 160.0

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 Lakeland Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 Real Gross Metro Product

Lakeland Real Personal Income

Lakeland Payroll Employment

64

1.5

30000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

1

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0%

(percent change year ago)

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 Real Personal Income


La k e l a n d

Quarterly Outlook for Lakeland, FL

July 2012 Forecast

2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

20.6 2.9 8 12.5

20.9 3.9 8.1 12.7

21.1 4.7 8.2 12.9

21.3 4.7 8.3 13

21.5 4.5 8.4 13.1

21.8 4.2 8.5 13.3

22 4.1 8.6 13.4

22.4 4.8 8.7 13.7

22.6 5 8.8 13.8

22.9 5.2 8.9 14

23.2 5.4 9 14.2

23.5 5.3 9.1 14.4

23.9 5.6 9.2 14.6

24.2 5.7 9.3 14.9

24.5 5.9 9.5 15.1

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

17.8 1.4

18.1 2.9

18.3 3.7

18.4 4.1

18.5 3.7

18.6 3

18.8 2.7

19 3.2

19.1 3

19.2 3.1

19.4 3.3

19.6 3.3

19.8 3.7

20 3.9

20.2 4.1

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

33.4 29

33.8 29.2

34 29.4

34.2 29.5

34.4 29.6

34.6 29.6

34.8 29.7

35.3 29.9

35.5 30

35.8 30.1

36.1 30.2

36.6 30.4

36.9 30.6

37.3 30.7

37.7 30.9

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

41.3 3.3

41.5 2.5

41.8 2.4

42.1 2.4

42.3 2.4

42.5 2.3

42.8 2.2

43.1 2.4

43.3 2.5

43.6 2.6

43.9 2.7

44.2 2.7

44.5 2.8

44.8 2.8

45.1 2.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

193.8 -0.7

194.6 0

195.5 0.5

196.4 1.5

197.3 1.8

198.2 1.9

199.1 1.8

200.1 1.9

201 1.8

202 1.9

203.2 2.1

204.4 2.2

205.6 2.3

206.9 2.4

208.3 2.5

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

13.9 -1

14 -0.2

14 0.4

14.1 1.5

14.3 2.6

14.4 2.9

14.5 3.2

14.6 3.3

14.6 2.7

14.7 2.6

14.8 2.5

14.9 2.3

15 2.1

15 1.8

15.1 1.5

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

179.9 -0.6

180.6 0

181.5 0.5

182.3 1.5

183.1 1.8

183.8 1.8

184.6 1.7

185.5 1.8

186.3 1.8

187.3 1.9

188.4 2

189.5 2.1

190.7 2.3

191.9 2.5

193.2 2.6

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

10.2 -2.7

10.2 -3

10.2 -2.2

10.3 -0.3

10.4 1.6

10.6 3.4

10.8 5.6

11.1 7.6

11.3 9.1

11.6 10.4

12 11.7

12.4 12.3

12.8 13

13.2 13.4

13.6 12.9

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

45.4 -0.8

45.6 -0.4

45.9 0.9

46.1 1.8

46.3 2.1

46.6 2.2

46.8 2.1

47 2

47.2 1.8

47.4 1.6

47.6 1.7

47.9 1.8

48.1 2.1

48.5 2.3

48.8 2.6

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

9.1 24 12.3

9.1 24.1 12.4

9.2 24.2 12.5

9.2 24.2 12.6

9.3 24.2 12.7

9.3 24.2 12.8

9.4 24.2 12.9

9.5 24.1 13

9.5 24 13.1

9.6 24 13.2

9.6 24 13.3

9.8 24.1 13.5

9.8 24.1 13.6

9.9 24.2 13.7

10 24.4 13.9

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.7 0.4

1.7 2.3

1.7 0.2

1.7 2.1

1.8 3.8

1.8 4.3

1.8 3.3

1.8 3.3

1.8 2

1.8 1.3

1.8 1.4

1.8 1.9

1.8 2.4

1.8 2.9

1.9 3

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

14.2 -6.3

14.2 -4.5

14.3 -2

14.4 2.1

14.4 1.7

14.5 1.5

14.5 1.1

14.4 0.4

14.4 0.1

14.5 0

14.5 -0.1

14.4 -0.2

14.5 0.1

14.5 0.2

14.5 0.2

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

23.9 -0.9

24 -0.8

24.4 1.9

24.7 3.8

25 4.6

25.2 4.7

25.3 3.9

25.5 3.1

25.8 3.4

26.2 4.2

26.6 5

26.9 5.6

27.3 5.8

27.7 5.7

28.1 5.7

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

29.6 -0.3

29.8 1.1

29.9 2

29.9 1.4

30 1.4

30.1 1.1

30.2 0.9

30.4 1.5

30.5 1.5

30.6 1.5

30.7 1.7

30.8 1.2

30.9 1.2

31 1.3

31.1 1.3

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

18.4 6.4

18.5 7.6

18.6 0.7

18.7 2

18.7 1.6

18.7 1

18.8 0.9

18.8 0.7

18.7 0.1

18.7 -0.3

18.6 -0.7

18.6 -0.8

18.6 -0.8

18.6 -0.6

18.5 -0.5

7.7 0

7.7 1.1

7.7 1.7

7.7 1.5

7.7 1.1

7.8 1

7.8 0.9

7.8 0.7

7.8 0.7

7.8 0.6

7.8 0.1

7.8 -0.1

7.8 -0.2

7.8 -0.3

7.8 -0.1

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.1 -8.3

1.1 -10.1

1.1 -7

1.1 -3.3

1.1 -2.4

1 -2.8

1 -2.9

1 -2.9

1 -2.8

1 -2.6

1 -2.5

1 -2.2

1 -1.9

1 -1.7

1 -1.4

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

27.8 -1

27.7 -1

27.7 -0.7

27.7 -0.4

27.7 -0.5

27.6 -0.3

27.7 -0.1

27.7 0.1

27.7 0.2

27.7 0.2

27.8 0.3

27.8 0.5

27.9 0.6

27.9 0.7

28 0.7

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil)

16210.6 16321.1 16445.6 16541.9 16642.5 16736.1 16847.8 16970.4 17104.5 17259.3 17433.8

17597 17771.2

17952 18129.2

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

616.1 1.1

618.5 1.2

621.1 1.4

623.7 1.5

626.3 1.7

628.7 1.6

631.1 1.6

633.6 1.6

636.2 1.6

638.7 1.6

641.2 1.6

643.8 1.6

646.4 1.6

649 1.6

651.6 1.6

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

271.6 -1.1

272.1 -0.8

272.6 -0.8

272.8 0.4

273.7 0.8

274.4 0.9

275.5 1.1

276.2 1.2

276.9 1.2

277.9 1.3

278.3 1

278.7 0.9

279.2 0.8

279.9 0.7

280.3 0.7

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

9.5

9.5

9.5

9.5

9.5

9.5

9.5

9.5

9.4

9.3

9.1

9

8.8

8.7

8.5

1685 1671 14

1842 1819 23

1981 1931 50

2205 2104 101

2585 2435 150

2886 2659 227

3201 2854 347

3434 2999 435

3815 3329 485

4225 3679 545

4588 3985 602

4931 4273 658

5324 4586 739

5632 4832 800

5823 4968 855

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

65


Lak e l an d

Annual Outlook for Lakeland, FL

July 2012

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

13.3 6 6.2 7.1

14.8 10.6 6.7 8.1

16.3 10.6 7.4 8.9

17.7 8.2 7.9 9.7

18.7 5.6 8.1 10.6

19.4 4 8.1 11.3

18.5 -4.5 7.7 10.8

19.2 3.5 7.7 11.4

20 4.4 7.9 12.1

20.7 3.6 8.1 12.6

14.1 3.9

15.2 7.8

16.3 7.5

17.2 5.3

17.7 2.8

17.8 0.7

17 -4.7

17.3 1.7

17.6 1.9

18 2.1

25.9 27.4

27.8 28.6

29.7 29.7

31 30.2

31.8 30.2

32.6 29.9

30.9 28.3

31.7 28.6

32.8 28.8

33.6 29.1

33 4.2

33.5 1.7

34.9 4.2

36.6 4.8

37.3 2

37.8 1.3

38.1 0.8

39 2.5

40.2 3.1

41.4 2.9

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

66

187.7 1

198.6 5.8

211.1 6.3

215.6 2.1

215.7 0

212.3 -1.6

201.5 -5.1

196.8 -2.3

194.9 -1

194.3 -0.3

18.1 -1.9

18.2 0.7

18.3 0.4

17.9 -2.2

17.2 -3.6

16.4 -5.1

14.8 -9.3

14.2 -4.2

14.1 -1

13.9 -0.9

169.6 1.3

180.4 6.3

192.8 6.9

197.8 2.6

198.5 0.4

196 -1.2

186.7 -4.8

182.6 -2.2

180.8 -1

180.4 -0.2

13.3 -5

14.8 11.1

16.6 12.3

17.3 4

16.2 -6.3

14.3 -11.9

12.1 -15.3

11 -8.8

10.5 -4.5

10.2 -2.6

42.5 -4.2

44.3 4.3

48 8.3

49.3 2.8

49.4 0.1

48.2 -2.5

45.3 -5.9

44.9 -0.9

45.6 1.6

45.5 -0.1

9.1 22.5 10.9

9.4 23.5 11.4

10.3 25.3 12.5

10.4 26.1 12.9

10.1 26.4 12.9

9.6 26.1 12.5

9.1 24.2 12

8.7 24.2 12

9 24.3 12.2

9.1 24.1 12.3

2.2 -7.9

2.2 -1.1

2.3 3

2.4 3

2.2 -7.8

2.1 -3.4

1.9 -9.2

1.8 -7

1.7 -4.3

1.7 0.7

14.7 1.5

14.6 -0.7

14.8 1.3

15.3 3.1

15.5 1.8

15.9 2.2

15.5 -2.6

15.3 -1.3

15 -1.8

14.2 -5.1

23.8 25.3

29 22.2

31.6 8.7

31.3 -0.9

30.4 -2.8

29.7 -2.5

27.4 -7.6

25.7 -6.3

24 -6.5

24 0

23.2 1.6

24.4 5.2

25.9 6

26.9 4.1

28.3 5.1

29.4 4

29 -1.4

29.1 0.4

29.5 1.3

29.7 0.7

15.8 -5.2

16.1 2.1

17.3 7.4

17.8 2.6

18.2 2.7

18.2 -0.4

17.4 -4.5

16.8 -3.3

17.6 4.9

18.5 4.9

7.5 0.9

8 7.6

9 11.9

9.5 5.5

9 -5.3

8.6 -4

8.3 -4

8 -2.8

7.6 -5.2

7.7 0.4

1.4 -3

1.3 -2.4

1.4 4.4

1.4 -0.6

1.4 1.2

1.4 0

1.4 -1.3

1.6 15.8

1.2 -25.7

1.1 -8.5

25.3 1.6

25.5 1

26 2

26.7 2.6

27.9 4.3

28.3 1.7

28.5 0.6

28.4 -0.3

28.1 -1.2

27.8 -1.2

13710.3

14734.2

15967.8

16657.7

16790.7

16484.4

16158.3

16241.8

16174.9

16270.5

515.1 2.4

530.4 3

550.1 3.7

570.3 3.7

586.5 2.8

595 1.4

599.3 0.7

604.1 0.8

610.3 1

617.5 1.2

239.7 0.7

247.4 3.2

256.1 3.5

261.2 2

269.1 3.1

273.5 1.6

272.6 -0.3

276.1 1.3

274.6 -0.6

272 -0.9

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

5.5

4.9

4

3.6

4.4

6.7

11.1

12.2

11.6

9.6

6877 6325 552

9504 8463 1041

12785 11790 995

9464 8309 1154

4377 4030 347

3222 2365 857

1203 1191 12

1222 1166 57

1164 1096 68

1760 1732 28


La k e l a n d

Annual Outlook for Lakeland, FL

July 2012

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

21.6 4.4 8.4 13.2

22.7 5.1 8.8 13.9

24 5.6 9.3 14.8

25.5 6.1 9.8 15.7

26.9 5.6 10.2 16.7

28.3 5.3 10.7 17.7

29.8 5 11.1 18.7

31.1 4.6 11.5 19.7

32.6 4.5 11.9 20.6

34.1 4.8 12.4 21.7

18.6 3.4

19.1 3.1

19.9 3.8

20.8 4.4

21.6 4.1

22.4 3.7

23.2 3.5

23.9 3.2

24.6 2.9

25.4 3.1

34.5 29.6

35.7 30

37.1 30.7

38.7 31.5

40.2 32.3

41.7 32.9

43.1 33.6

44.4 34.1

45.7 34.6

47.2 35.1

42.4 2.4

43.5 2.6

44.7 2.8

45.9 2.8

47.3 2.9

48.7 3

50.2 3.1

51.7 3

53.2 3.1

54.9 3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

197.8 1.8

201.6 1.9

206.3 2.3

211.1 2.3

215 1.8

217.7 1.3

219.6 0.8

221.3 0.8

222.8 0.7

224.9 0.9

14.3 2.5

14.7 2.8

15 1.9

15.1 0.6

15 -0.2

15 -0.3

14.9 -0.5

14.9 -0.3

14.8 -0.4

14.8 -0.4

183.5 1.7

186.9 1.9

191.3 2.4

196 2.5

200 2

202.7 1.4

204.6 0.9

206.4 0.9

208 0.8

210.2 1

10.5 2.6

11.5 9.7

13 12.9

14.3 10.3

15.2 5.7

15.6 2.7

15.7 0.6

15.7 0.1

15.7 0.3

15.8 0.3

46.5 2

47.3 1.8

48.3 2.2

49.6 2.7

50.7 2.2

51.3 1.2

51.5 0.5

51.7 0.2

51.8 0.2

51.9 0.4

9.3 24.2 12.7

9.5 24 13.2

9.9 24.2 13.7

10.3 24.5 14.3

10.6 24.7 14.8

10.9 24.7 15.2

11 24.8 15.3

11.2 24.7 15.4

11.3 24.6 15.5

11.4 24.5 15.7

1.8 3.4

1.8 2

1.8 2.6

1.9 2.4

1.9 2.5

2 2

2 1.6

2 1.3

2.1 1.7

2.1 2

14.4 1.6

14.5 0.1

14.5 0.1

14.5 0.1

14.6 0.9

14.7 0.8

14.8 0.7

14.9 0.5

14.9 0.2

15 0.7

25.1 4.3

26 3.9

27.5 5.7

28.8 4.5

29.9 4

30.9 3.2

31.7 2.8

32.7 3

34 4.1

35.5 4.4

30.1 1.2

30.5 1.6

30.9 1.3

31.6 2.1

32.1 1.8

32.6 1.5

33.1 1.4

33.5 1.3

33.7 0.6

33.9 0.5

18.7 1.4

18.7 -0.1

18.6 -0.7

18.5 -0.6

18.3 -0.9

18.1 -0.9

18 -0.8

17.8 -1.2

17.6 -1

17.4 -1

7.7 1.1

7.8 0.5

7.8 -0.2

7.8 0.2

7.8 0.2

7.8 -0.2

7.8 -0.3

7.7 -0.3

7.7 -0.4

7.7 -0.4

1.1 -2.9

1 -2.7

1 -1.8

1 -1

1 -0.7

1 -0.6

1 -0.2

1.1 14.1

1 -10.5

1 0.5

27.7 -0.3

27.7 0.2

27.9 0.6

28.1 0.8

28.4 1

28.7 1.2

29 1.1

29.3 0.7

29.5 0.8

29.8 1.1

16692

17192

17862.3

18528.8

19144

19701.6

20233

20751.4

21208.5

21730.5

627.4 1.6

637.4 1.6

647.7 1.6

658.4 1.7

669.3 1.7

679.9 1.6

690.4 1.5

701 1.5

712.1 1.6

723.4 1.6

274.1 0.8

277.3 1.2

279.5 0.8

281.5 0.7

284.2 1

287.4 1.1

290.9 1.2

294.4 1.2

297.4 1

300.3 1

9.5

9.3

8.7

8.1

7.6

7.3

7

6.9

6.8

6.8

2719 2513 206

4015 3498 517

5428 4665 763

6200 5153 1047

6545 5291 1254

6487 5226 1262

6409 5164 1245

6267 5094 1173

5958 4927 1031

5748 4773 974

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

67


Lak e l an d

Annual Outlook for Lakeland, FL

July 2012

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

35.8 5 12.9 22.9

37.6 4.9 13.4 24.2

39.4 4.8 13.9 25.5

41.3 4.8 14.5 26.8

43.3 4.9 15.2 28.2

45.4 4.7 15.8 29.6

47.5 4.7 16.5 30.9

49.7 4.6 17.3 32.4

52 4.7 18.1 33.9

54.5 4.8 18.9 35.5

26.2 3.1

27 3

27.7 2.9

28.5 2.9

29.4 3

30.2 2.7

31 2.7

31.8 2.6

32.6 2.7

33.5 2.8

48.7 35.6

50.4 36.1

52 36.6

53.7 37.1

55.6 37.7

57.4 38.2

59.2 38.7

61.1 39.1

63.1 39.6

65.3 40.2

56.6 3.2

58.4 3.1

60.2 3.2

62.2 3.3

64.2 3.3

66.3 3.3

68.6 3.3

70.8 3.3

73.3 3.5

75.7 3.4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

68

226.7 0.8

228.1 0.6

230 0.8

232.3 1

234.8 1.1

237.4 1.1

240.2 1.2

242.7 1.1

245.7 1.2

249 1.3

14.6 -0.9

14.5 -1.1

14.3 -1.4

14 -1.5

13.9 -1.4

13.7 -1.4

13.5 -1.3

13.3 -1.2

13.2 -1.1

13 -1.1

212.1 0.9

213.6 0.7

215.7 1

218.3 1.2

221 1.2

223.7 1.2

226.7 1.3

229.4 1.2

232.5 1.4

235.9 1.5

15.9 0.8

16.1 1.1

16.4 1.7

16.7 2.1

17 1.7

17.2 1.1

17.3 0.9

17.5 1

17.8 1.8

18.1 1.8

52.3 0.6

52.6 0.7

53 0.8

53.5 0.8

54 0.9

54.4 0.9

54.9 0.9

55.2 0.5

55.5 0.6

55.8 0.5

11.5 24.4 16

11.6 24.4 16.3

11.7 24.4 16.6

11.8 24.4 16.8

11.9 24.6 17.1

11.9 24.8 17.3

12 24.9 17.6

12.1 25 17.7

12.1 25.1 17.9

12.2 25.2 18

2.1 0.9

2.1 0.2

2.1 0.5

2.2 1

2.2 1.5

2.2 1.8

2.3 2

2.3 1.6

2.4 1.7

2.4 1.7

15.1 0.6

15.2 0.6

15.4 0.8

15.5 0.8

15.6 1

15.8 1.3

16 1.3

16.2 1.2

16.5 1.3

16.7 1.2

36.6 2.9

37.1 1.5

38 2.4

39.1 2.9

40.1 2.5

41.1 2.6

42.3 3

43.5 2.8

45.1 3.6

46.9 4.1

34 0.5

34.1 0.3

34.3 0.5

34.5 0.8

34.9 1

35.3 1.2

35.8 1.3

36.2 1.1

36.6 1.1

36.9 1.1

17.2 -0.9

17.2 -0.5

17.1 -0.4

17.1 0

17.2 0.5

17.3 0.7

17.4 0.8

17.5 0.5

17.7 0.7

17.8 0.7

7.7 0.1

7.7 0.3

7.7 0.4

7.8 0.4

7.8 0.3

7.8 0.5

7.9 0.6

7.9 0.5

7.9 0.2

7.9 0

1 3

1.1 4.4

1.1 4.3

1.2 4.2

1.2 4.1

1.3 4

1.3 3.9

1.5 10.9

1.4 -2.3

1.5 3.9

30.1 1

30.3 0.8

30.6 0.8

30.8 0.6

31 0.7

31.2 0.6

31.4 0.6

31.5 0.5

31.7 0.5

31.9 0.5

22352

22989.2

23649.6

24321.1

24986.3

25653.8

26352

27074.5

27860.9

28647.9

734.8 1.6

746.1 1.5

757.3 1.5

768.5 1.5

779.6 1.5

790.7 1.4

801.7 1.4

812.6 1.4

823.4 1.3

834.2 1.3

303.7 1.1

307.2 1.2

310.5 1.1

314 1.1

317.7 1.2

321.5 1.2

325.4 1.2

329.2 1.2

333.2 1.2

337 1.2

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

6.7

6.6

6.5

6.5

6.4

6.3

6.2

6.2

6.1

6

5738 4821 917

6014 5083 932

6107 5154 954

6112 5150 962

5991 4999 992

5829 4818 1012

5711 4699 1012

5672 4681 991

5570 4595 974

5382 4404 978


La k e l a n d

Annual Outlook for Lakeland, FL

July 2012

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

57 4.6 19.7 37.2

59.5 4.5 20.5 39

62.2 4.5 21.2 40.9

65 4.5 22 42.9

67.8 4.3 22.8 45

70.8 4.4 23.7 47.1

73.9 4.4 24.5 49.4

77 4.2 25.4 51.6

80.3 4.3 26.3 54

83.8 4.3 27.3 56.5

34.4 2.5

35.2 2.4

36.1 2.4

36.9 2.5

37.8 2.3

38.7 2.4

39.6 2.3

40.4 2.2

41.3 2.2

42.3 2.3

67.4 40.7

69.5 41.1

71.7 41.6

74.1 42.1

76.4 42.6

78.8 43.1

81.3 43.6

83.8 44

86.4 44.5

89.2 45

78.2 3.2

80.6 3.2

83.1 3.1

85.7 3.1

88.3 3

90.9 3

93.6 2.9

96.3 2.9

99.1 2.9

101.9 2.9

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

251.2 0.9

252.8 0.6

254.3 0.6

256 0.6

257.5 0.6

259.1 0.6

260.8 0.6

262.5 0.7

264.3 0.7

266.4 0.8

12.9 -1.2

12.7 -1.1

12.6 -1.1

12.5 -1

12.3 -1

12.2 -0.9

12.2 -0.6

12.1 -0.7

12 -0.6

11.9 -0.7

238.4 1

240.1 0.7

241.7 0.7

243.5 0.7

245.2 0.7

246.9 0.7

248.6 0.7

250.4 0.7

252.3 0.8

254.5 0.9

18.4 1.5

18.5 0.8

18.7 0.8

18.9 1

19.1 1

19.2 0.9

19.4 0.8

19.4 0.1

19.5 0.3

19.6 0.6

56 0.4

56 0.1

56.1 0.1

56.1 0.1

56.2 0.1

56.2 0.1

56.3 0.1

56.4 0.1

56.5 0.3

56.7 0.4

12.2 25.3 18.1

12.2 25.4 18.1

12.2 25.4 18.1

12.2 25.5 18

12.2 25.6 18

12.1 25.7 17.9

12.1 25.8 17.8

12.2 25.9 17.8

12.2 26 17.7

12.4 26.1 17.7

2.4 1.7

2.5 1.7

2.5 1.9

2.6 2

2.6 1.9

2.7 1.9

2.7 2

2.8 1.9

2.8 1.9

2.9 2

16.8 1.1

17 0.9

17.1 1

17.3 1

17.5 0.8

17.6 0.8

17.7 0.7

17.8 0.3

17.8 -0.1

17.7 -0.1

48.1 2.5

49 1.8

49.8 1.7

50.7 1.7

51.5 1.7

52.3 1.6

53.2 1.6

54.2 1.9

55.4 2.3

56.8 2.4

37.2 0.7

37.4 0.5

37.5 0.4

37.7 0.5

37.9 0.5

38.1 0.6

38.3 0.5

38.5 0.6

38.8 0.6

39 0.7

17.9 0.6

18 0.3

18 0.5

18.1 0.4

18.2 0.4

18.3 0.4

18.3 0.5

18.4 0.3

18.5 0.4

18.5 0.3

7.9 0.1

7.9 0

7.9 0

7.9 0

7.9 -0.1

7.9 -0.2

7.9 -0.1

7.9 -0.3

7.9 -0.3

7.8 -0.5

1.5 3.7

1.6 3.7

1.7 3.8

1.7 3.7

1.8 3.6

1.8 3.5

1.9 3.3

2.1 8.2

2 -1.9

2.1 3.7

32 0.4

32.2 0.4

32.3 0.4

32.4 0.4

32.6 0.4

32.7 0.4

32.8 0.4

33 0.4

33.1 0.4

33.3 0.4

29389.5

30130.1

30903.8

31714.9

32550.3

33400.2

34292.4

35228.6

36258.3

37329.6

845.1 1.3

855.8 1.3

866.6 1.3

877.2 1.2

887.7 1.2

898.1 1.2

908.5 1.2

918.8 1.1

929 1.1

938.9 1.1

340.9 1.1

344.7 1.1

348.5 1.1

352.3 1.1

356 1

359.6 1

363.4 1

366.9 1

370.4 0.9

373.8 0.9

6

5.9

5.9

5.8

5.8

5.8

5.8

5.8

5.8

5.8

5308 4336 972

5325 4354 972

5357 4379 978

5358 4372 987

5262 4273 989

5165 4165 1000

5085 4067 1018

4998 3962 1036

4955 3906 1049

4897 3831 1065

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

69


M iam i – Fo r t Lau d e r dale – P o m pan o B e ach

Profiles

Outlook Summaries

The Miami–Fort Lauderdale–Pompano Beach MSA is comprised of Miami-Dade County, Broward County, and Palm Beach County. Located on the southeast coast of Florida, this area is home to many sports teams, such as the Miami Dolphins, the Miami Heat, the Florida Marlins and the Florida Panthers. Other major businesses also reside in this Metro, including the Miami Seaquarium, the University of Miami, and Florida International University.

The Miami–Fort Lauderdale–Pompano Beach Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) area is expected to show strong growth in the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow 4.6 percent annually, and the per capita income level, at 39, is the second highest in the areas studied. Average annual wage growth will be at 2.8 percent. The average annual wage level is expected to be 53.9, the highest of the studied MSAs. Miami is expected to average a population growth of 1.4 percent each year. The area has the highest Gross Metro Product at a level of 254,960.33 (Mill). Employment is expected to grow at an average rate of 1.8 percent each year, while unemployment is expected to be 8.2 percent. Miami’s fastest growing sector is expected to be the Construction and Mining sector at 6.4 percent annually, followed by the Professional and Business Services sector at 4.0 percent each year and Education and Health Services sector at 1.9 percent. State and Local Government and the Federal Government sectors are expected to decline with annual growth rate of -0.3 percent and -2.3 percent.

QUICK FACTS: • Metro area population estimate of 5,670,125 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Miami-Dade County population estimate of 2,554,766 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Broward County population estimate of 1,780,172 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Palm Beach County population estimate of 1,335,187 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • A civilian labor force of 2,881,418 as of April 2012 for the entire Metro area (Florida Research and Economic Database). • An unemployment rate of 8.3% as of April 2012, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 237,916 unemployed people for the entire Metro area (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: • • • • • • • • • • •

Miami-Dade County Public School – 48,571 Miami-Dade County – 29,000 Federal Government – 19,500 Florida State Government – 17,100 University of Miami – 16,000 Baptist Health South Florida – 13,376 Jackson Health System – 12,571 Publix Super Markets – 10,800 American Airlines – 9,000 Florida International University – 8,000 Miami-Dade College – 6,200

Source: The Beacon Council 70

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

Metro News Summaries Used cooking oil turns to biodiesel in South Florida

• The largest biodiesel plant for the tri-county area is being built now and costs approximately $4 million. • Suppliers of cooking oil, such as restaurants at the Miami International airport will give the biodiesel plant the used cooking oil in order to convert it to biodiesel.

• Greenwave biodiesel of Fort Lauderdale already supplies South Florida with 3.6 million gallons per year. • The biodiesel from these plants will supply fuel for trucks and buses in the tri-county area.

Source: Sun-Sentinel, April 8, 2012


M i a m i – F o r t La u d e r d a l e – P o m pa n o B e ac h

Bayview Center for mental health warns of 58 Pembroke Pines layoffs

• The Bayview Center is a company that provides mental health care as well as substance abuse help. • The center filed various notices to the state of Florida in order to warn about 58 layoffs at the center. The company also filed three Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification notices.

• The layoffs and changes are most likely due to the fact that the Bayview Center lost its contract with South Florida Behavioral Network. The South Florida Behavioral Network has a large contract with the Florida Department of Children and Families in the Miami-Dade County.

Source: South Florida Business Journal, June 1, 2012 Boynton Beach police need $10 million radio system upgrade

• The city of Boynton Beach is trying to decide if they should keep their police forces or shut them down because of high costs and instead contract officers from the Palm-Beach County Sheriff’s office.

• Some from the city agree that the most economical choice is to shut down the Boynton Beach police and contract officers. The PalmBeach County Sheriff’s office already has the radio system upgrade that the Boynton Beach police are in need of now.

• The city is not sure how they would pay for the $10 million radio system upgrade for the police force. Some of the money will come from grants, but the rest may come from tax hikes for the Boynton Beach citizens.

Source: Sun-Sentinel, June 1, 2012

FAU plans to close down Fort Lauderdale Campus • Florida Atlantic University, a public university, will see a $26.7 million budget cut for the 2012-2013 academic year mainly due to Florida legislature cuts.

• The downtown Fort Lauderdale campus has about 547 students that would move to either the Boca or Davie campus if this budget proposal goes through. The closure would be enacted by June 2013. • FAU believes this cut could save the school approximately $1.9 million. Some degree programs at FAU may also be eliminated including German and Human Resources.

Source: South Florida Business Journal, April 24, 2012 Mortgage Firm to bring 150 jobs to Boca

• Digital Risk is a company that decides banks’ risk on mortgage loan refinancing. The company has 1,400 employees across the nation. • The company is opening an office in Boca Raton that will hire 150 people in the first three months. • Digital Risk says that they chose Boca Raton as the site for the office because the Workforce Alliance, the county employment office in Boca, proved that there is a sufficient amount of qualified workers and mortgage processers in the area.

Source: Sun-Sentinel, June 6, 2012

FEC, Port Everglades, PortMiami making big upgrades

• The Florida East Coast Railway line used to transport freight from Hialeah to PortMiami until Hurricane Wilma damaged a section in 2005.

• The FEC hopes to recreate the connection and include an upgrade as well. They would like to make a loading area for freighters that would allow them to transfer freight directly onto the rail.

• PortMiami is developing a strategy to attract ships from the Panama Canal reconstruction that will be complete in 2015. The reconstruction of the damaged section is a part of PortMiami’s plan.

Source: South Florida Business Journal, May 25, 2012

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

71


M iam i – Fo r t Lau d e r dale – P o m pan o B e ach Miami - Fort Lauderdale - Pompano Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manuf acturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Inf ormation Financial Activities Prof essional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Miami Unemployment Rate (percent)

12.0%

0.6

0.8

1.4

1.6

Miami Real Gross Metro Product 600000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

400000.0

8.0% 6.0%

300000.0

4.0%

200000.0

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 FL Unemployment Rate Miami Unemployment Rate

100000.0

3400.0 3200.0 3000.0 2800.0 2600.0 2400.0 2200.0 2000.0 1800.0

(Thousands)

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 Real Gross Metro Product

Miami Real Personal Income

Miami Payroll Employment

72

1.2

500000.0

10.0%

2.0%

1

10.0%

(percent change year ago)

5.0% 0.0% -5.0%

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 Miami Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

-10.0%

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 Real Personal Income


M i a m i – F o r t La u d e r d a l e – P o m pa n o B e ac h

Quarterly Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL

July 2012 Forecast

2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

251 3 116.3 134.7

254.1 3.9 117.6 136.5

257 4.4 119 138

259.4 4.4 120.3 139

262 4.4 121.4 140.5

264.4 4.1 122.6 141.8

267.1 3.9 123.8 143.3

271.1 4.5 125.2 145.9

274.1 4.6 126.7 147.4

277.6 5 128.2 149.3

281.2 5.3 130 151.3

285.5 5.3 131.7 153.8

289.3 5.6 133.4 156

293.3 5.7 135.1 158.2

297.3 5.7 136.8 160.5

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

217.4 1.4

220.1 2.9

222.1 3.5

223.5 3.7

225.3 3.6

226.5 2.9

227.8 2.6

230 2.9

231.2 2.6

233 2.9

235.1 3.2

237.6 3.3

239.7 3.7

242 3.8

244.3 3.9

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

43.6 37.7

44 38.1

44.3 38.3

44.6 38.4

44.9 38.6

45.2 38.7

45.5 38.8

46 39

46.4 39.1

46.8 39.3

47.2 39.5

47.8 39.8

48.3 40

48.8 40.2

49.3 40.5

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

51.6 3.4

51.9 2.6

52.3 2.5

52.6 2.5

52.9 2.5

53.2 2.4

53.5 2.3

53.9 2.5

54.3 2.7

54.6 2.8

55 2.9

55.5 2.9

55.9 3

56.3 3

56.6 2.9

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

2240.7 1.1

2250.2 1.4

2262.2 1.3

2273.8 1.7

2282.6 1.9

2291.7 1.8

2300 1.7

2309.1 1.6

2320.1 1.6

2332.7 1.8

2347.1 2.1

2360 2.2

2372.9 2.3

2386.4 2.3

2401.2 2.3

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

77.4 1.6

77.7 1.9

77.8 0.7

78.1 0.9

78.9 2

79.5 2.3

80 2.8

80.4 3

80.8 2.4

81.3 2.2

81.7 2.1

81.9 1.9

82.1 1.6

82.2 1.1

82.3 0.7

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

2163.3 1

2172.5 1.4

2184.3 1.3

2195.7 1.8

2203.7 1.9

2212.2 1.8

2220 1.6

2228.6 1.5

2239.3 1.6

2251.5 1.8

2265.5 2

2278.1 2.2

2290.8 2.3

2304.2 2.3

2319 2.4

80.9 -5

81 -1.3

81.6 -0.3

82.4 1.3

83.7 3.5

85.1 5

87.1 6.8

89.3 8.3

91.7 9.6

94.2 10.7

97.6 12

101.2 13.3

104.9 14.4

108.5 15.1

112.1 14.8

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

526.6 1.9

529.5 1.9

532.6 1.8

535.7 2

537.6 2.1

540.6 2.1

542.6 1.9

543.9 1.5

546 1.6

548.3 1.4

550.8 1.5

552.6 1.6

554.4 1.5

556.8 1.5

559.9 1.7

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

134.4 300.7 91.6

135.3 301.6 92.3

136.5 302.8 93

137.6 303.3 94

138.2 303.3 94.9

139.2 304.1 95.8

139.9 304 96.6

140.4 303.1 97.3

141.1 302.8 98

142 303.1 98.8

143 303.6 99.6

143.9 303.6 100.5

144.6 304.1 101.4

145.3 305 102.2

146.1 306.5 103.1

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

43.3 -1

43.4 0.2

43.8 0.5

44.3 2

45 3.8

45.3 4.3

45.3 3.4

45.5 2.7

45.5 1.1

45.4 0.3

45.5 0.4

45.9 1

46.1 1.3

46.1 1.6

46.1 1.3

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

152.5 -0.2

153 0.9

153.6 1.5

154.1 1.5

154.2 1.1

154.3 0.8

154.3 0.5

154 -0.1

153.8 -0.2

153.9 -0.2

154.1 -0.1

154.2 0.2

154.4 0.4

154.7 0.5

154.9 0.5

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

345.4 1.1

347.9 2.1

352.6 2.6

357.4 3.9

360.6 4.4

363.3 4.4

365.4 3.6

367.7 2.9

372.6 3.3

379.1 4.4

385.8 5.6

391 6.4

395.9 6.3

400.7 5.7

405.7 5.2

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

355.3 3.8

357.3 3.1

358.7 1.4

358.8 1.2

359.3 1.1

360.4 0.8

361.3 0.7

363.7 1.4

365.4 1.7

366.6 1.7

368.1 1.9

369.6 1.6

371.9 1.8

374 2

376.6 2.3

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

260.7 0.6

262.8 0.6

264.6 2.6

266.3 3.1

267.3 2.5

267.8 1.9

268.7 1.5

269.2 1.1

269 0.6

268.5 0.3

268.1 -0.2

268 -0.5

267.4 -0.6

267.1 -0.5

267.2 -0.4

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

94.9 1.4

95 2.4

95.2 1.1

95.5 1

95.5 0.7

95.7 0.7

95.8 0.6

95.9 0.4

96 0.5

96.1 0.4

95.8 0

95.7 -0.2

95.7 -0.3

95.6 -0.4

95.6 -0.2

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

33.7 -1

33.5 -1.6

33.2 -2.9

33 -2.5

32.7 -2.9

32.5 -2.9

32.2 -3

32 -3

31.8 -3

31.6 -2.8

31.4 -2.7

31.2 -2.4

31.1 -2.1

31 -1.9

30.9 -1.6

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

270 -0.9

269.1 -0.8

268.5 -1.5

268.2 -0.7

267.8 -0.8

267.4 -0.6

267.3 -0.5

267.4 -0.3

267.5 -0.1

267.8 0.2

268.2 0.4

268.6 0.4

269.1 0.6

269.6 0.7

270 0.7

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil)

243550 245154 246989 248549 249893 251236 252702 254210 256228 258577 261245 263644 266029 268470 270963

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

5761.5 1.6

5780.3 1.5

5798.9 1.5

5817.8 1.4

5836.4 1.3

5855 1.3

5873.8 1.3

5892.8 1.3

5912.5 1.3

5932.4 1.3

5952.6 1.3

5972.6 1.4

5992.3 1.4

6012.3 1.3

6032.7 1.3

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

2913.3 1.3

2923.6 1.7

2933.8 1.7

2940 1.1

2946.5 1.1

2952.1 1

2958.3 0.8

2962.6 0.8

2967 0.7

2972.4 0.7

2977.1 0.6

2983 0.7

2990.8 0.8

2998.4 0.9

3004.9 0.9

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

8.6

8.6

8.5

8.5

8.5

8.5

8.4

8.3

8.2

8.1

7.9

7.8

7.6

7.4

7.3

10918 5779 5139

12844 6268 6576

14927 6779 8149

16036 7291 8745

17282 8095 9187

18477 8726 9751

19680 9461 10219

20857 10167 10691

22368 11338 11030

24242 12701 11541

26573 14227 12346

29013 15868 13146

31227 17432 13795

33166 18748 14419

34808 19693 15114

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

73


M iam i – Fo r t Lau d e r dale – P o m pan o B e ach

Annual Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL

July 2012

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

179.2 2.8 89.3 89.9

194.9 8.7 95.4 99.5

210.6 8.1 103.3 107.3

228.8 8.7 110.2 118.7

238.3 4.1 114.3 124

242.9 1.9 113 129.9

226 -7 106.6 119.5

233 3.1 107.8 125.2

243.8 4.7 112.2 131.6

252.6 3.6 117.1 135.6

189.3 0.8

200.6 5.9

210.6 5

222.8 5.8

225.9 1.4

223 -1.3

207.1 -7.1

209.7 1.3

214.2 2.1

218.8 2.1

34 35.9

36.4 37.5

38.9 38.9

42.2 41

43.9 41.6

44.5 40.8

41 37.5

41.6 37.5

42.9 37.7

43.8 37.9

40.4 4.1

42.1 4.2

44 4.4

45.8 4.1

47.1 2.8

47.8 1.6

48.1 0.6

49 1.9

50.3 2.6

51.8 3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

74

2195.5 0.1

2250.4 2.5

2335.3 3.8

2392.6 2.5

2414.7 0.9

2350.8 -2.6

2202.5 -6.3

2185.2 -0.8

2218.9 1.5

2247 1.3

104.3 -8

101.7 -2.5

102.1 0.4

101.5 -0.5

99.5 -2

93.4 -6.1

80.5 -13.8

76 -5.6

76.3 0.4

77.6 1.7

2091.2 0.6

2148.7 2.7

2233.3 3.9

2291.1 2.6

2315.2 1.1

2257.4 -2.5

2122.1 -6

2109.2 -0.6

2142.6 1.6

2169.4 1.3

122.2 1.2

131.4 7.5

147.4 12.2

164.4 11.5

161.2 -2

135 -16.2

102.6 -24.1

88.7 -13.5

83.8 -5.5

81.2 -3.1

510.2 -1.1

516.7 1.3

530.1 2.6

543.4 2.5

549.6 1.1

540.6 -1.6

504.9 -6.6

504.2 -0.1

517.8 2.7

528.5 2.1

134.3 282.8 93.2

138.6 285.6 92.4

141.2 294.2 94.6

144.7 303.6 95.1

147.6 306.1 95.8

144.4 300.9 95.3

134.6 281.1 89.1

131.9 283.9 88.4

133.4 293.7 90.7

134.9 301.4 92.1

56.7 -7

55.8 -1.6

55.2 -1.1

52.5 -4.9

51.2 -2.4

49.7 -2.9

44.9 -9.6

43.6 -3

43.7 0.2

43.5 -0.4

163.2 0.9

168.9 3.5

177.1 4.9

182.4 3

180.3 -1.2

169.7 -5.9

154 -9.2

151.1 -1.9

152 0.6

152.7 0.5

318.4 -0.3

330.8 3.9

356.4 7.8

368 3.3

370.2 0.6

353.3 -4.6

325.5 -7.9

329.1 1.1

341.1 3.7

347.5 1.9

283.9 3.4

293.5 3.4

301.6 2.8

308 2.1

318.9 3.5

326.3 2.3

330.6 1.3

335.5 1.5

345.6 3

356.5 3.1

229.4 2

240.2 4.7

247.6 3.1

251.7 1.7

257.9 2.5

257 -0.4

247.5 -3.7

251.5 1.6

258.6 2.8

261.6 1.1

95.8 1.9

97.7 2

99 1.4

99.3 0.3

100.8 1.5

100.9 0.1

93.4 -7.4

93 -0.5

93.3 0.4

94.9 1.7

34.1 6.2

34.2 0.3

34.5 1

34.1 -1.4

34 -0.3

33.8 -0.4

34.1 0.7

36.7 7.6

34.1 -7

33.6 -1.5

277.3 0.9

279.8 0.9

284.3 1.6

287.2 1

291.2 1.4

291.2 0

284.5 -2.3

276 -3

272.5 -1.3

269.4 -1.1

215355

224277

236693

244721

248295

241653

232524

235897

239712

244405

5271.5 1.3

5345.5 1.4

5409.8 1.2

5427.2 0.3

5429.3 0

5462 0.6

5516.5 1

5594 1.4

5681.3 1.6

5769.6 1.6

2573.5 0.4

2610.4 1.4

2673.5 2.4

2746.8 2.7

2877.6 4.8

2869.1 -0.3

2789.1 -2.8

2823 1.2

2875.5 1.9

2920 1.5

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

5.7

5.1

4.2

3.6

3.9

6

10.3

11.2

10.5

8.7

38503 24200 14303

41507 24218 17290

42183 22743 19440

32052 15834 16217

14684 7637 7047

7431 3536 3895

3481 2219 1262

5074 3264 1810

7896 4272 3624

12672 6027 6645


M i a m i – F o r t La u d e r d a l e – P o m pa n o B e ac h

Annual Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL

July 2012

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

263.2 4.2 122 141.2

276 4.9 127.5 148.5

291.3 5.6 134.2 157.1

308.8 6 141 167.8

325.8 5.5 148 177.7

343 5.3 154.9 188.1

360.3 5 161.7 198.6

377.1 4.7 168.5 208.7

394.1 4.5 175.5 218.5

412.9 4.8 183.2 229.7

225.8 3.2

232.3 2.9

240.9 3.7

251.3 4.3

261.3 4

271.1 3.7

280.7 3.5

289.7 3.2

297.9 2.8

307.1 3.1

45 38.6

46.6 39.2

48.5 40.1

50.8 41.3

52.8 42.4

54.8 43.3

56.7 44.2

58.5 44.9

60.2 45.5

62.2 46.2

53 2.5

54.5 2.7

56.1 2.9

57.6 2.8

59.3 3

61.2 3.2

63.2 3.2

65.2 3.1

67.3 3.2

69.4 3.2

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

2287 1.8

2327.3 1.8

2380.1 2.3

2433.7 2.3

2481.4 2

2517.1 1.4

2544.6 1.1

2571.3 1.1

2596.3 1

2626.1 1.1

79.1 2

81.1 2.4

82.1 1.3

82.1 -0.1

81.4 -0.8

80.8 -0.8

80.1 -0.8

79.5 -0.7

78.9 -0.8

78.2 -0.8

2207.9 1.8

2246.2 1.7

2298 2.3

2351.7 2.3

2400 2.1

2436.4 1.5

2464.5 1.2

2491.8 1.1

2517.4 1

2547.9 1.2

84.6 4.1

93.2 10.2

106.7 14.4

119.3 11.9

128.8 8

135.1 4.9

138 2.1

140 1.4

142.3 1.6

144.4 1.5

539.1 2

547.3 1.5

555.9 1.6

565.8 1.8

574.1 1.5

578.6 0.8

579.9 0.2

579.7 0

578.8 -0.2

578.7 0

138.7 303.7 95.3

141.6 303.2 98.4

145 304.8 101.8

147.9 308.2 105.5

151.2 309.7 109.2

153.6 309.7 111.6

155.1 309.5 112.1

156.5 308.4 112

157.4 306.2 112.2

158.5 304.7 112.6

45 3.4

45.5 1.1

46.1 1.3

46.4 0.7

46.9 1.1

47.6 1.5

48.3 1.4

48.7 1

49.5 1.5

50.3 1.7

154.2 1

154 -0.2

154.6 0.4

155.4 0.5

157.1 1.1

158.5 0.9

159.5 0.6

160.1 0.4

160.5 0.2

161.4 0.5

361.6 4.1

376.3 4

398.3 5.9

416.4 4.5

434.4 4.3

450 3.6

465 3.3

481 3.4

503.3 4.6

527.4 4.8

359.9 1

366 1.7

373 1.9

384.1 3

393.2 2.4

399.7 1.7

405.4 1.4

411.3 1.4

414 0.7

416 0.5

267.5 2.3

268.7 0.5

267.4 -0.5

266.3 -0.4

264.6 -0.6

262.5 -0.8

261 -0.6

258.7 -0.9

256.6 -0.8

254.2 -0.9

95.6 0.8

95.9 0.3

95.7 -0.3

95.8 0.2

96.2 0.4

96.5 0.3

96.6 0.1

96.6 0

96.5 -0.1

96.4 -0.2

32.6 -2.8

31.7 -2.9

31 -2

30.7 -1.2

30.4 -0.9

30.2 -0.8

30 -0.5

32.6 8.5

30.5 -6.3

30.6 0.3

267.7 -0.7

267.8 0

269.3 0.6

271.5 0.8

274.2 1

277.7 1.2

280.8 1.1

283.1 0.8

285.4 0.8

288.5 1.1

250595

257565

267277

276753

285891

294630

303124

311537

318987

327279

5845.8 1.3

5922.6 1.3

6002.5 1.3

6084.1 1.4

6168.1 1.4

6257.3 1.4

6350.8 1.5

6446.2 1.5

6543.3 1.5

6641.1 1.5

2949.2 1

2969.8 0.7

2994.3 0.8

3023.6 1

3055.1 1

3086.5 1

3115.6 0.9

3146.2 1

3180.3 1.1

3215.2 1.1

8.4

8.1

7.5

6.9

6.5

6.2

6

5.9

5.9

5.8

17869 8393 9475

23510 12108 11402

32054 17935 14118

39146 21363 17783

43950 23110 20840

44737 23143 21593

44940 22941 21999

44512 22846 21665

43212 22450 20762

42560 22099 20462

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

75


M iam i – Fo r t Lau d e r dale – P o m pan o B e ach

Annual Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL

July 2012

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

433.2 4.9 191.1 242.1

454.3 4.9 199 255.3

476.6 4.9 208 268.5

499.9 4.9 218 281.9

524.7 4.9 228.5 296.1

549.8 4.8 239.8 310.1

576.3 4.8 252 324.3

603.6 4.7 264.5 339.1

633.3 4.9 278.4 354.9

665.1 5 293.1 372.1

316.6 3.1

325.8 2.9

335.4 2.9

345.3 2.9

355.6 3

365.6 2.8

376 2.8

386.3 2.7

397.4 2.9

409.3 3

64.3 47

66.4 47.6

68.7 48.3

71 49.1

73.5 49.8

76 50.5

78.6 51.3

81.2 52

84.1 52.7

87.2 53.6

71.7 3.3

74.1 3.4

76.6 3.4

79.3 3.5

82 3.4

84.8 3.5

87.8 3.5

90.9 3.5

94.1 3.6

97.4 3.5

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

76

2652.1 1

2672.3 0.8

2701 1.1

2736.3 1.3

2773.7 1.4

2812.6 1.4

2855.6 1.5

2896.9 1.4

2943.3 1.6

2995.2 1.8

77.3 -1.3

76.2 -1.3

75.1 -1.5

73.9 -1.6

72.7 -1.5

71.6 -1.6

70.5 -1.5

69.6 -1.4

68.7 -1.2

67.8 -1.3

2574.8 1.1

2596 0.8

2626 1.2

2662.5 1.4

2701 1.4

2741 1.5

2785 1.6

2827.3 1.5

2874.6 1.7

2927.4 1.8

147.1 1.9

150.5 2.3

154.7 2.8

159.4 3.1

163.8 2.7

167.3 2.2

170.6 2

174.2 2.1

179.2 2.8

184.4 2.9

579.7 0.2

581.2 0.3

583.5 0.4

585.7 0.4

589.2 0.6

592.1 0.5

595.1 0.5

596.2 0.2

597.9 0.3

598.9 0.2

159.6 303.4 113.6

160.4 302.6 115

161.4 302.4 116.3

162.2 302.7 117.5

163.3 304.4 118.2

163.5 306.4 118.9

163.9 307.9 119.9

163.9 309 120

164.1 310.3 120.2

164.2 311.5 120

50.7 0.7

50.7 0.1

51 0.5

51.5 1

52.3 1.5

53.2 1.8

54.3 2

55.2 1.6

56.1 1.7

57.1 1.7

162.3 0.6

163.3 0.6

164.5 0.8

166 0.9

167.9 1.1

170.1 1.3

172.5 1.4

174.7 1.3

177.1 1.4

179.5 1.3

545.4 3.4

556.4 2

572.7 2.9

592.6 3.5

610.8 3.1

629.7 3.1

651.9 3.5

673.6 3.3

702.1 4.2

734.8 4.7

418.1 0.5

419.6 0.4

421.9 0.5

425.3 0.8

429.9 1.1

435.3 1.3

441.2 1.4

446.3 1.2

451.3 1.1

456.4 1.1

252.3 -0.8

251.6 -0.3

251.3 -0.1

251.8 0.2

253.6 0.7

256 0.9

258.7 1.1

260.8 0.8

263.4 1

266 1

96.7 0.3

97.1 0.5

97.8 0.7

98.5 0.7

99.1 0.6

99.9 0.8

100.8 0.9

101.6 0.8

102.2 0.6

102.5 0.3

31.1 1.5

31.8 2.2

32.5 2.1

33.1 2.1

33.8 2

34.4 1.9

35.1 1.8

37.8 7.9

36.7 -2.9

37.4 1.8

291.4 1

293.8 0.8

296.2 0.8

298.4 0.8

300.7 0.8

302.8 0.7

304.9 0.7

306.8 0.6

308.6 0.6

310.5 0.6

337043

347123

357804

368727

379602

390620

402158

414197

427157

440455

6739.9 1.5

6838.8 1.5

6937.8 1.4

7036.9 1.4

7136.2 1.4

7235.8 1.4

7335.3 1.4

7434.4 1.4

7533.2 1.3

7631.7 1.3

3253.4 1.2

3292.8 1.2

3328.6 1.1

3367.8 1.2

3409.5 1.2

3452.8 1.3

3496.6 1.3

3541 1.3

3586.2 1.3

3631.3 1.3

5.7

5.7

5.6

5.5

5.5

5.4

5.3

5.3

5.2

5.2

42769 22779 19990

43968 24296 19672

44977 24945 20032

45937 25258 20679

46402 24927 21474

46644 24490 22155

46648 24308 22340

46723 24570 22152

46542 24523 22020

45997 23997 22000

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012


M i a m i – F o r t La u d e r d a l e – P o m pa n o B e ac h

Annual Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL

July 2012

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

697 4.8 306.9 390.1

729.3 4.6 320.3 409

763.5 4.7 334.2 429.3

799.6 4.7 349 450.6

836.3 4.6 364.1 472.1

875.3 4.7 379.9 495.4

915.6 4.6 396.3 519.3

956.8 4.5 413.5 543.3

1001.6 4.7 433 568.6

1049.1 4.7 453.5 595.6

420.6 2.8

431.4 2.6

442.7 2.6

454.6 2.7

466.2 2.5

478.3 2.6

490.4 2.5

502.3 2.4

515.4 2.6

529.1 2.7

90.2 54.4

93.2 55.1

96.3 55.9

99.7 56.7

103 57.4

106.5 58.2

110.1 59

113.7 59.7

117.7 60.6

121.9 61.5

100.7 3.4

104.1 3.4

107.6 3.3

111.2 3.3

114.9 3.3

118.7 3.3

122.6 3.3

126.6 3.3

131.2 3.6

135.8 3.5

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

3034 1.3

3063.8 1

3093.9 1

3125.7 1

3156.4 1

3187.6 1

3219.6 1

3252.5 1

3287.3 1.1

3326.3 1.2

66.9 -1.4

66 -1.3

65.2 -1.3

64.4 -1.2

63.7 -1.2

63 -1.1

62.5 -0.8

62 -0.8

61.5 -0.8

61 -0.8

2967.1 1.4

2997.7 1

3028.7 1

3061.3 1.1

3092.7 1

3124.6 1

3157.1 1

3190.5 1.1

3225.8 1.1

3265.3 1.2

189.1 2.6

192.7 1.9

196.4 1.9

200.6 2.1

204.8 2.1

209 2

213.1 2

215.8 1.3

219.1 1.5

222.9 1.8

599.4 0.1

598.6 -0.1

597.8 -0.1

597.1 -0.1

596.4 -0.1

596.1 -0.1

595.9 0

595.7 0

596.2 0.1

597.5 0.2

163.9 312.5 119.7

163.3 313.2 118.9

162.8 313.8 117.9

162.3 314.7 116.8

161.6 315.7 115.5

160.9 317.1 114.3

160.3 318.5 113.2

160.2 319.4 112

160.8 320.4 110.9

162.2 321 110

58.1 1.7

59.1 1.8

60.3 2

61.5 2.1

62.8 2

64 2

65.4 2.1

66.7 2.1

68.1 2

69.5 2.1

181.5 1.1

183.3 1

185.2 1.1

187.3 1.1

189 0.9

190.7 0.9

192.3 0.8

193.1 0.4

193.2 0.1

193.2 0

757.6 3.1

776 2.4

794.1 2.3

812.4 2.3

830.4 2.2

848 2.1

866.2 2.2

886.3 2.3

910.1 2.7

935.4 2.8

460.1 0.8

462.5 0.5

464.9 0.5

467.7 0.6

470.3 0.6

473.3 0.6

476.1 0.6

479.4 0.7

482.9 0.7

486.6 0.8

268.2 0.8

269.8 0.6

271.8 0.7

273.7 0.7

275.5 0.6

277.5 0.7

279.6 0.7

281.2 0.6

283 0.7

284.6 0.6

102.9 0.4

103.2 0.3

103.5 0.3

103.9 0.4

104.2 0.2

104.4 0.2

104.6 0.2

104.7 0.1

104.7 0

104.6 -0.1

38 1.7

38.7 1.7

39.4 1.8

40.1 1.7

40.7 1.7

41.4 1.6

42 1.5

44.1 5.1

43.2 -2

44 1.7

312.1 0.5

313.8 0.5

315.3 0.5

317 0.5

318.6 0.5

320.2 0.5

321.9 0.5

323.5 0.5

325.2 0.5

326.9 0.5

452918

465182

477949

491418

505418

519627

534475

550042

567098

584961

7729.9 1.3

7827.8 1.3

7925.4 1.2

8022.8 1.2

8120 1.2

8217.3 1.2

8314.6 1.2

8412 1.2

8509.5 1.2

8607.3 1.1

3676.1 1.2

3721 1.2

3765.7 1.2

3810 1.2

3853.9 1.2

3897.6 1.1

3941.6 1.1

3983.3 1.1

4024.5 1

4064.8 1

5.1

5.1

5.1

5

5

5.1

5.1

5.1

5.1

5.1

45945 24078 21866

46284 24576 21708

46752 25124 21628

46982 25504 21478

46577 25403 21174

46285 25228 21057

46192 25096 21096

46033 24903 21130

46118 25044 21074

46157 25057 21100

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

77


Nap le s – Marco I s l an d

Profiles

Outlook Summaries

The Naples–Marco Island MSA is comprised of Collier County only. Located on the southwest coast of Florida it is notable for numerous recreation and leisure activities. This region is sometimes referred to as the “Crown Jewel of Southwest Florida”. It is the largest county in Florida, geographically.

The Naples–Marco Island is expected to show strong growth in the economic indicators. The metro area will show the highest personal income growth among the studied metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) at 5.8 percent. Per capita income level, which is expected to be 55.1, is also the highest of the MSAs. Average annual wage will be at a level of 51.1. The average annual wage is expected to grow at a rate of 3.0 percent, the highest of the twelve MSAs. Population growth will average 2.2 percent, the highest in the studied areas and the Gross Metro Product level will be 13,866.70 (Mill). Employment growth is expected to average 2.9 percent each year, the highest of the MSAs. The metro will see an unemployment rate of 8.7 percent. The Professional and Business Services sector represents Naples’ fastest growing sector, growing at a rate of 5.6 percent each year. The Construction and Mining sector follows with a growth rate of 4.8 percent. The Federal Government sector is the only sector expected to decline at -1.3 percent annually.

Quick Facts: • Population estimate of 328,134 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • A civilian labor force of 151,357 in April 2012 (U.S. Census Bureau). • An unemployment rate of 7.4% not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 11,255 unemployed people (U.S. Census Bureau). Top Area Employers: • • Naples Community Hospital – 4,000 • • The Ritz-Carlton, Naples – 1,100 • • Gargiulo, Inc. – 1,100 • • Arthrex, Inc – 1,056 • • Collier County Sheriff’s Office – 1,029 • • Hometown Inspection Svc. – 900 • • Publix – 800 • • Marriott – 700 • • Naples Grande Beach Resort – 760 • • Downing Frye Realty – 550 • • Golf Bay Group Co. – 500 Source: Collier Business & Economic Development

Metro News Summaries Lighthouse Project: Our Future, Our Choices: Development, nature and wildlife co-exist in the future

• Ave Maria is predicted to have 20,000 residents in 2023. This community will be bordering a preserve with bears and cougars. Officials are trying their hardest to ensure preservation and redevelopments go hand in hand. • Collier County is predicted to have 400,000 residents in about 10 years. Many of the eastern Collier areas such as Ave Maria, Big Cypress, and Orangetree will develop grocery stores, pharmacies and retail centers to increase the quality of life in Collier County.

Source: Naples News, April 29, 2012

78

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012


Nap l e s – Ma r c o I s l a n d

Collier tourism ‘bucket list’ ads will target Florida’s east coast

• Advertisements featuring champagne buckets and sand pails splash Florida’s billboards. Sponsored by the county’s four percent tax charged by hotels and other vacation rental agencies, the billboards were meant to target both adults and traveling families.

• They also advertise fiscal-friendly vacations during the slower summer months. Paradise Advertising and Marketing Inc. created the billboards and other advertising devices with a budget of $475,000. Online advertisements will appear on tripadvisor.com, orbitz.com, and weather.com.

Source: Naples News, May 7, 2012

Commissioners to look again at Marco beach renourishment

• Commissioners voted unanimously to take up Collier County Commissioner Tom Henning on his suggestion to revisit Marco Island beach renourishment. • The $3 million project was said to be put to better use on mainland beaches which suffer from worse erosion.

• There is a $31M price tag for supplementing sand and controlling erosion on mainland beaches. The county projects it will have only $16.5 million and seeks to cut costs and acquire government funds to bridge the gap.

• Just last year, Collier schools cut $15M and 65 positions. The recommended budget cuts include reducing each schools budget; reducing central office budgets; reorganizing technology department; decreasing central office positions and many more.

Source: Naples News, May 8, 2012

Collier commissioner wants Immokalee voters to decide fate of master plan • Commissioner Jim Coletta cancelled a public hearing to decide on the Immokalee Area master plan.

• He thinks that the amendment would be better off if it is on the August primary ballot. This would allow Immokalee voters to approve or deny the plan.

• The Immokalee community Redevelopment Agency decided to hold a special public meeting on June 18. After this, the Commissioner petitioned to get the amendment on the ballot. • The plan “sets the stage for action: changing land use and building codes; applying for funding; setting design standards; improving housing; and attracting new business.”

Source: Immokalee Today and Naples News, June 11, 2012

Source: Naples News, May 8, 2012

Collier Schools to present budget, job cuts at regular meeting today

• The Collier School district will recognize $16.5 million in budget reductions, including eliminating 100 positions. • The superintendent said that the employees in the instructional positions will be offered another job in their certification area.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

79


Nap le s – Marco I s l an d Naples - Marco Island MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manuf acturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Inf ormation Financial Activities Prof essional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Naples Unemployment Rate (percent)

14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 FL Unemployment Rate Naples Unemployment Rate

0.6

0.8

250.0

45000.0 40000.0 35000.0 30000.0 25000.0 20000.0 15000.0 10000.0 5000.0

20.0% 10.0%

150.0

0.0%

100.0

-10.0%

80

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 Naples Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

1.4

1.6

1.8

(Millions 2000 $)

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 Real Gross Metro Product

Naples Real Personal Income

200.0

50.0

1.2

Naples Real Gross Metro Product

Naples Payroll Employment (Thousands)

1

-20.0%

(percent change year ago)

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 Real Personal Income


Nap l e s – Ma r c o I s l a n d

Quarterly Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL

July 2012 Forecast

2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

20.5 4.1 5.7 14.7

20.8 5.7 5.8 15

21.1 6.3 5.9 15.2

21.3 5.8 6 15.3

21.6 5.5 6.1 15.5

21.9 5.1 6.1 15.7

22.2 5 6.2 15.9

22.6 6 6.3 16.3

22.9 6 6.4 16.5

23.2 6.1 6.5 16.7

23.5 6.2 6.6 17

24 6.1 6.7 17.3

24.4 6.7 6.8 17.6

24.8 7.1 6.9 17.9

25.3 7.5 7 18.3

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

17.7 2.6

18 4.7

18.2 5.4

18.4 5.1

18.6 4.7

18.7 3.9

18.9 3.6

19.2 4.4

19.3 3.9

19.5 4

19.7 4.2

20 4.1

20.2 4.8

20.5 5.2

20.8 5.6

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

61.3 53.1

62 53.7

62.6 54.1

63 54.3

63.4 54.6

63.9 54.8

64.5 55

65.4 55.4

65.7 55.5

66.2 55.6

66.8 55.8

67.5 56.2

68.2 56.5

68.9 56.8

69.6 57.2

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

48.7 3.5

49.1 2.8

49.5 2.8

49.8 2.9

50.1 2.9

50.4 2.8

50.8 2.7

51.2 2.8

51.6 3

52 3.1

52.4 3.1

52.7 3.1

53.2 3.2

53.6 3.2

54 3.1

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

116.8 2.7

117.8 3.9

118.6 3.1

119.4 2.9

120.2 2.9

121 2.7

121.8 2.7

122.5 2.6

123.2 2.5

123.9 2.4

124.8 2.5

125.7 2.6

126.8 2.9

127.9 3.2

129.1 3.4

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

2.5 3.1

2.5 6.9

2.6 1.8

2.6 2.3

2.6 3.4

2.6 3.5

2.6 3.6

2.7 3.7

2.7 3.1

2.7 3

2.7 2.9

2.7 2.7

2.7 2.5

2.8 2

2.8 1.6

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

114.3 2.7

115.2 3.8

116.1 3.1

116.8 2.9

117.6 2.9

118.4 2.7

119.1 2.6

119.8 2.6

120.5 2.5

121.2 2.4

122.1 2.5

123 2.6

124.1 2.9

125.2 3.2

126.3 3.4

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

8.8 -1.2

8.9 4.4

8.9 4.7

8.9 1.8

9 2

9 1.2

9.1 2.6

9.3 3.6

9.4 4.5

9.5 5.4

9.7 6.5

10 7.7

10.3 9.7

10.6 11.7

11 12.9

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

22.9 2

23 2.2

23.2 2.3

23.4 2.7

23.5 2.9

23.7 3

23.9 2.9

24 2.7

24.1 2.5

24.3 2.4

24.5 2.5

24.6 2.7

24.8 2.9

25 3.1

25.3 3.3

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.2 18 1.6

3.3 18.1 1.6

3.3 18.2 1.6

3.3 18.3 1.6

3.3 18.4 1.6

3.4 18.5 1.7

3.4 18.6 1.7

3.4 18.6 1.7

3.4 18.6 1.7

3.5 18.7 1.7

3.5 18.8 1.7

3.6 18.9 1.8

3.6 19 1.8

3.7 19.2 1.8

3.7 19.4 1.8

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.5 0.6

1.5 1.8

1.5 1.2

1.5 2.5

1.6 4.4

1.6 5

1.6 4.6

1.6 4.1

1.6 2.5

1.6 1.7

1.6 1.9

1.7 2.9

1.7 3.7

1.7 4.3

1.7 4.3

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

6.7 3.7

6.8 4.8

6.8 4.1

6.9 3.5

6.9 3

7 2.8

7 2.4

7 1.5

7 1.2

7 0.9

7 0.7

7 0.7

7.1 1

7.1 1.1

7.1 1.2

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

13.5 4.6

13.6 5.2

13.9 5.1

14.1 5.3

14.3 6.2

14.5 6.3

14.6 5.5

14.8 4.6

15 4.4

15.2 4.9

15.4 5.4

15.6 5.8

15.9 6.2

16.1 6.3

16.4 6.3

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

18.2 2.7

18.4 2.8

18.5 1.9

18.5 2.3

18.7 2.3

18.8 2

18.9 2

19 2.7

19.2 2.7

19.3 2.7

19.4 2.9

19.5 2.5

19.6 2.5

19.8 2.5

19.9 2.5

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

24.1 6.9

24.4 7.7

24.6 5.3

24.7 3.6

24.9 3.1

25 2.5

25.1 2.1

25.2 1.9

25.2 1.3

25.2 0.9

25.2 0.4

25.3 0.3

25.3 0.4

25.3 0.5

25.4 0.6

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

5.4 -1.8

5.5 -0.8

5.5 1.2

5.5 3.2

5.6 2.9

5.6 2.8

5.6 2.6

5.7 2.3

5.7 2.3

5.7 2.2

5.7 1.7

5.8 1.5

5.8 1.3

5.8 1.3

5.8 1.5

0.7 1.7

0.7 -2.8

0.7 -4.3

0.7 -2.2

0.7 -1.3

0.7 -1.6

0.7 -1.7

0.7 -1.6

0.7 -1.5

0.7 -1.4

0.7 -1.3

0.7 -1

0.7 -0.7

0.7 -0.4

0.7 -0.2

12.5 -1.2

12.5 1

12.5 -0.1

12.5 0.6

12.5 0.5

12.6 0.8

12.6 1.2

12.7 1.4

12.7 1.5

12.8 1.6

12.8 1.7

12.9 1.9

13 2

13 2.1

13.1 2.1

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil)

13734 13834.7 13948.6 14086.2 14244.1 14396.4 14569.7 14751.5

14931

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

333.8 1.7

335.5 1.8

337 1.8

338.5 1.8

340.2 1.9

342 1.9

343.8 2

345.8 2.2

347.9 2.3

350.1 2.4

352.6 2.6

355 2.7

357.7 2.8

360.6 3

363.5 3.1

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

151.8 2.2

152.7 3.2

153.7 2.2

154.4 2.6

155 2.1

155.6 1.9

156.1 1.6

156.5 1.3

156.7 1

156.9 0.9

157.8 1

158.6 1.3

159.5 1.8

160.5 2.3

161.3 2.2

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

13122.4 13247.3 13362.8 13454.6 13548.9 13636.5

8.1

8.3

8.4

8.5

8.7

8.8

8.9

9.1

9

9

8.9

8.7

8.6

8.5

8.3

1446 980 466

1575 1015 560

1816 1055 761

2083 1165 917

2390 1346 1044

2697 1536 1161

2954 1701 1253

3252 1815 1437

3598 2033 1566

3932 2262 1670

4252 2441 1811

4559 2612 1946

4829 2798 2032

5066 2947 2119

5239 3025 2214

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

81


Nap le s – Marco I s l an d

Annual Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL

July 2012

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

12.7 6.3 4.5 8.1

15.2 19.8 5 10.2

16.8 10.6 5.6 11.2

19.1 14 6 13.1

19.9 4.3 6.1 13.8

21 5.5 5.6 15.4

18.1 -14.1 5.1 13

18.6 3.2 5.2 13.5

19.6 5.3 5.4 14.2

20.6 5.1 5.8 14.9

13.4 4.2

15.6 16.8

16.8 7.4

18.6 11

18.9 1.5

19.3 2.1

16.6 -14.3

16.8 1.4

17.2 2.8

17.9 3.6

44.2 46.7

51 52.5

54.5 54.5

61.2 59.6

63.4 60.1

66.4 60.9

56.6 51.9

57.7 51.9

59.7 52.5

61.7 53.4

40.3 8.3

42 4.2

44.2 5.1

44.9 1.8

46.8 4.1

45.9 -1.9

45.5 -0.8

46.5 2.1

47.4 1.9

48.9 3.1

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

82

111.7 3.1

118.2 5.8

125.9 6.5

132.7 5.4

129.7 -2.3

121.1 -6.6

110.7 -8.7

110.6 -0.1

113.7 2.8

117.3 3.2

2.9 -5.3

3.1 5.9

3.2 3

3.3 3.7

3.3 -1.3

3 -9.7

2.6 -11.4

2.4 -6.7

2.4 -0.8

2.5 4.1

108.8 3.3

115.1 5.8

122.7 6.6

129.4 5.4

126.4 -2.3

118.2 -6.5

108 -8.6

108.1 0.1

111.3 2.9

114.8 3.2

14.6 -0.8

16.7 14.8

20.3 21.3

23.9 17.7

19.7 -17.7

14.4 -26.6

10.4 -28

9.1 -12.9

8.7 -3.9

8.8 1.7

22.4 -1.3

23 2.4

24.3 5.7

24.5 1

24.2 -1.2

23 -4.9

21.2 -7.9

21.4 1.1

22.4 4.8

23 2.3

3.1 17.6 1.7

3.3 18 1.7

3.4 19.1 1.8

3.2 19.5 1.7

3.4 19.2 1.6

3.3 18.2 1.6

3.1 16.7 1.5

3.1 16.8 1.5

3.2 17.7 1.5

3.2 18.1 1.6

1.7 -3.3

1.8 7.3

1.8 0

1.9 3.2

1.8 -4.9

1.8 -0.9

1.6 -9

1.5 -4.1

1.5 -3.3

1.5 1

6.7 2.6

7.1 5.8

7.7 9.4

8.2 5.7

8.2 0.1

7.3 -10.4

6.6 -10

6.5 -1

6.5 -0.5

6.7 3.9

12.9 26

14.2 10.1

13.1 -7.9

13.6 4.1

12.6 -7.6

12 -4.5

11.5 -4.4

12.1 5.4

12.9 6.4

13.6 5.6

13.7 3.2

13.9 1.8

15 7.7

15.9 5.8

16.7 5.3

16.9 0.8

16.6 -1.5

17.1 2.9

17.9 4.5

18.3 2.5

18.8 1.2

20.3 8

21.8 7.3

22.2 1.8

23.3 4.9

22.9 -2

20.9 -8.4

21.3 1.7

22.7 6.4

24.2 6.9

5.5 -0.3

5.4 -1.4

5.7 5.2

5.8 1.9

6 3.2

6 0.5

5.7 -5.4

5.7 0

5.5 -2.6

5.4 -1.4

0.7 0

0.7 0

0.7 0.1

0.7 0.1

0.7 0

0.7 -3.7

0.7 1

0.8 14.8

0.7 -10.6

0.7 -1.3

11.8 4.5

11.9 0.9

12.3 2.9

12.7 3.4

13.3 4.6

13.3 -0.3

12.9 -3

12.7 -1.6

12.5 -1

12.5 -0.6

11397

12247.4

13324.1

14139.7

13857.8

12969.9

12169.8

12422.5

12731.3

13182.8

286.7 3.6

297.5 3.8

307.7 3.4

312.6 1.6

314.7 0.7

316.8 0.7

319.1 0.7

323.4 1.3

328.8 1.7

334.6 1.8

133.1 2.7

138 3.6

144 4.4

150.7 4.6

152.4 1.1

148.4 -2.6

143.1 -3.6

144.7 1.1

148.5 2.6

152.2 2.5

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

4.9

4.2

3.4

3

4.2

6.8

10.9

11.6

10.3

8.4

5380 3487 1892

6190 4112 2079

5921 4072 1849

4478 3067 1411

1986 1166 821

965 669 296

837 634 203

1197 803 394

1315 954 361

1563 1000 564


Nap l e s – Ma r c o I s l a n d

Annual Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL

July 2012

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

21.7 5.3 6.1 15.6

23.1 6.1 6.4 16.6

24.6 6.8 6.8 17.8

26.6 7.8 7.3 19.3

28.5 7.1 7.7 20.7

30.4 7 8.2 22.2

32.4 6.6 8.6 23.8

34.4 6.1 9.1 25.3

36.5 5.9 9.6 26.9

38.7 6.3 10.1 28.7

18.6 4.3

19.4 4.1

20.4 4.9

21.6 6.1

22.8 5.6

24.1 5.4

25.3 5.1

26.4 4.6

27.6 4.2

28.8 4.6

63.7 54.6

66 55.6

68.6 56.7

71.6 58.3

74.4 59.7

77.3 61.1

80.1 62.4

82.7 63.6

85.3 64.5

88.3 65.7

50.3 2.8

51.8 3

53.4 3.1

55.1 3.2

56.9 3.3

58.8 3.4

60.8 3.4

62.8 3.3

64.9 3.4

67.1 3.4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

120.6 2.8

123.6 2.5

127.4 3

131.6 3.3

135.4 2.9

138.7 2.4

141.5 2

144.1 1.9

146.6 1.7

149.3 1.8

2.6 3.2

2.7 3.2

2.8 2.2

2.8 0.6

2.8 0

2.8 -0.1

2.8 -0.3

2.8 -0.2

2.7 -0.3

2.7 -0.6

118 2.8

120.9 2.5

124.6 3.1

128.9 3.4

132.7 3

135.9 2.4

138.7 2.1

141.4 1.9

143.9 1.8

146.6 1.9

9 1.9

9.5 5

10.5 10.5

11.7 11.6

12.6 7.4

13.1 4.6

13.4 2.3

13.6 1.6

13.9 1.8

14.1 1.6

23.6 2.9

24.2 2.5

24.9 3

25.8 3.5

26.5 2.9

27.1 2.2

27.6 1.7

28 1.4

28.3 1.2

28.7 1.3

3.4 18.5 1.6

3.5 18.7 1.7

3.6 19.1 1.8

3.8 19.7 1.9

4 20.2 2

4.2 20.5 2.1

4.3 20.9 2.1

4.4 21.2 2.1

4.5 21.4 2.2

4.6 21.6 2.2

1.6 4.1

1.6 2.5

1.7 3.8

1.7 3.7

1.8 3.6

1.9 3.2

1.9 2.8

2 2.4

2 2.8

2.1 2.9

6.9 2.9

7 1.1

7.1 1

7.2 1.2

7.3 2.2

7.5 2.2

7.6 2

7.8 1.8

7.9 1.4

8 1.8

14.4 5.8

15.1 4.8

16 6.1

16.8 5.2

17.7 5

18.4 4.3

19.2 3.9

20 4.2

21.1 5.4

22.2 5.6

18.7 2.1

19.2 2.7

19.7 2.5

20.3 3.2

21 3.1

21.5 2.7

22.1 2.7

22.7 2.6

23.1 1.7

23.4 1.5

24.9 2.8

25.2 1.1

25.3 0.4

25.4 0.6

25.5 0.3

25.6 0.3

25.7 0.4

25.7 0

25.7 0.1

25.7 -0.1

5.6 2.9

5.7 2.1

5.8 1.4

5.9 1.8

6 1.9

6.1 1.5

6.2 1.3

6.3 1.3

6.3 1.2

6.4 1.1

0.7 -1.7

0.7 -1.4

0.7 -0.6

0.7 0.2

0.7 0.5

0.7 0.6

0.7 1

0.8 17.8

0.7 -11.2

0.7 1.5

12.6 0.8

12.8 1.5

13 2

13.3 2.2

13.6 2.4

14 2.6

14.3 2.4

14.6 2.1

14.9 2

15.2 2.2

13593.5

14028.4

14662.1

15345.6

16002.6

16633.4

17245.1

17848.2

18393.5

18986.2

341.1 1.9

349.1 2.3

359.2 2.9

370.8 3.2

382.3 3.1

393.6 3

404.8 2.8

416.1 2.8

427.4 2.7

439 2.7

155.3 2

157 1.1

160 1.9

163.6 2.3

167.8 2.6

172.4 2.8

177.1 2.8

181.8 2.6

186.2 2.4

190.7 2.4

8.7

9

8.5

7.9

7.5

7.2

6.9

6.8

6.8

6.8

2531 1437 1094

3758 2138 1621

4923 2845 2078

5710 3137 2572

6244 3269 2976

6340 3323 3017

6314 3344 2970

6298 3378 2920

6238 3381 2857

6227 3387 2840

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

83


Nap le s – Marco I s l an d

Annual Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL

July 2012

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

41.3 6.5 10.6 30.7

44 6.6 11.1 32.9

46.9 6.5 11.7 35.1

49.9 6.4 12.4 37.4

53.2 6.6 13.2 40

56.5 6.3 14 42.5

60.1 6.2 14.9 45.2

63.8 6.2 15.8 48

67.8 6.3 16.8 51

72.2 6.4 17.9 54.3

30.2 4.7

31.6 4.6

33 4.5

34.4 4.4

36 4.6

37.6 4.3

39.2 4.3

40.8 4.1

42.5 4.2

44.4 4.4

91.6 66.9

95.1 68.2

98.7 69.4

102.3 70.7

106.3 72

110.2 73.3

114.2 74.5

118.3 75.7

122.7 77

127.4 78.4

69.4 3.5

71.8 3.4

74.3 3.5

76.9 3.6

79.7 3.6

82.5 3.5

85.5 3.6

88.5 3.5

91.8 3.7

95.1 3.6

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

84

151.9 1.7

154.3 1.6

157.3 1.9

160.9 2.3

164.8 2.4

168.9 2.5

173.2 2.6

177.5 2.4

182.2 2.6

187.2 2.8

2.7 -1.3

2.7 -1.2

2.6 -1.4

2.6 -1.3

2.6 -1.1

2.5 -1.2

2.5 -1.1

2.5 -1

2.5 -0.8

2.4 -0.9

149.2 1.8

151.7 1.7

154.7 2

158.3 2.3

162.3 2.5

166.4 2.5

170.7 2.6

175 2.5

179.7 2.7

184.7 2.8

14.4 2.1

14.7 2.4

15.2 2.9

15.7 3.4

16.2 3

16.6 2.5

16.9 2.2

17.3 2.4

17.9 3.1

18.4 3.2

29.1 1.4

29.5 1.5

30 1.7

30.6 1.8

31.2 2.2

31.9 2.2

32.6 2.1

33.2 1.8

33.8 1.9

34.4 1.8

4.7 21.9 2.2

4.8 22.1 2.3

4.9 22.5 2.4

5 22.9 2.4

5.1 23.3 2.5

5.2 23.9 2.5

5.3 24.4 2.6

5.4 24.8 2.6

5.4 25.3 2.7

5.5 25.8 2.7

2.1 1.8

2.1 1.3

2.2 1.7

2.2 2.2

2.3 2.7

2.3 3

2.4 3.2

2.5 2.8

2.6 2.9

2.6 2.9

8.2 1.8

8.3 1.8

8.5 2

8.7 2.1

8.9 2.3

9.1 2.5

9.3 2.6

9.5 2.5

9.8 2.5

10 2.5

23.2 4.1

23.8 2.7

24.7 3.7

25.8 4.7

27 4.4

28.2 4.4

29.5 4.8

30.9 4.6

32.6 5.5

34.5 5.9

23.8 1.5

24.1 1.3

24.4 1.5

24.9 1.8

25.4 2.1

26 2.2

26.6 2.4

27.2 2.2

27.7 2.1

28.3 2.1

25.7 0

25.9 0.6

26 0.7

26.3 1.1

26.7 1.6

27.2 1.8

27.8 1.9

28.2 1.7

28.7 1.9

29.3 1.9

6.5 1.4

6.6 1.6

6.7 1.9

6.8 2

7 1.9

7.1 2.1

7.3 2.2

7.4 2.1

7.6 1.8

7.7 1.6

0.8 3.7

0.8 5

0.8 4.9

0.9 4.8

0.9 4.7

0.9 4.6

1 4.4

1.1 11.2

1.1 -1.4

1.1 4.3

15.6 2.1

15.9 1.9

16.2 1.9

16.5 1.8

16.8 1.9

17.1 1.8

17.4 1.8

17.7 1.7

18 1.7

18.3 1.7

19673.2

20398.2

21169.1

21989.1

22831.2

23696.7

24605.4

25557.1

26591.8

27660.1

450.7 2.7

462.7 2.7

474.9 2.6

487.4 2.6

500.1 2.6

512.9 2.6

525.9 2.5

539.1 2.5

552.4 2.5

566.4 2.5

195.5 2.5

200.5 2.5

205.3 2.4

210.4 2.5

215.7 2.5

221.2 2.6

226.9 2.6

232.7 2.5

238.6 2.5

244.6 2.5

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

6.7

6.6

6.6

6.5

6.4

6.3

6.3

6.2

6.1

6.1

6355 3549 2806

6596 3832 2765

6792 3972 2820

6973 4060 2913

7041 4043 2998

7060 4004 3057

7052 4006 3046

7062 4085 2977

7027 4109 2918

6908 4045 2864


Nap l e s – Ma r c o I s l a n d

Annual Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL

July 2012

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

76.7 6.3 18.9 57.8

81.5 6.2 20 61.5

86.6 6.3 21 65.5

92 6.3 22.2 69.8

97.7 6.1 23.4 74.2

103.8 6.3 24.7 79.1

110.2 6.2 26.1 84.1

116.8 6 27.5 89.3

123.9 6.1 29 94.8

131.5 6.1 30.6 100.8

46.3 4.2

48.2 4.1

50.2 4.2

52.3 4.2

54.4 4.1

56.7 4.2

59 4.1

61.3 3.9

63.8 4

66.3 4

132.1 79.7

136.9 81

142 82.3

147.3 83.7

152.6 85.1

158.3 86.5

164.1 87.9

169.9 89.2

176.1 90.6

182.5 92

98.4 3.5

101.8 3.4

105.2 3.4

108.7 3.4

112.3 3.3

116.1 3.4

120 3.4

124 3.3

128.1 3.3

132.3 3.3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

191.6 2.4

195.5 2

199.5 2

203.7 2.1

207.9 2.1

212.3 2.1

216.8 2.1

221.3 2.1

226.1 2.1

230.8 2.1

2.4 -0.9

2.4 -0.8

2.4 -0.8

2.4 -0.7

2.3 -0.7

2.3 -0.6

2.3 -0.3

2.3 -0.4

2.3 -0.3

2.3 -0.4

189.2 2.4

193.1 2.1

197.1 2.1

201.3 2.1

205.6 2.1

210 2.1

214.5 2.1

219 2.1

223.8 2.2

228.5 2.1

19 2.8

19.4 2.1

19.8 2.2

20.2 2.3

20.7 2.3

21.2 2.2

21.6 2.1

21.9 1.4

22.3 1.6

22.6 1.6

35 1.8

35.6 1.6

36.1 1.6

36.7 1.6

37.4 1.7

38 1.8

38.7 1.8

39.4 1.8

40.1 1.9

40.9 1.9

5.6 26.3 2.8

5.7 26.8 2.8

5.7 27.3 2.8

5.8 27.7 2.8

5.9 28.3 2.8

5.9 28.8 2.8

6 29.4 2.8

6.1 30 2.9

6.2 30.6 2.9

6.3 31.1 2.9

2.7 2.9

2.8 2.9

2.9 3.2

3 3.2

3.1 3.1

3.2 3.1

3.3 3.2

3.4 3.1

3.5 3.1

3.5 2.3

10.3 2.3

10.5 2.2

10.7 2.2

11 2.3

11.2 2.1

11.4 2.1

11.6 2

11.8 1.5

12 1.2

12.1 1.1

36 4.3

37.3 3.6

38.6 3.5

40 3.5

41.3 3.5

42.7 3.4

44.2 3.4

45.8 3.8

47.7 4.1

49.8 4.3

28.8 1.8

29.3 1.5

29.7 1.5

30.2 1.6

30.7 1.7

31.3 1.8

31.8 1.7

32.4 1.8

33 1.8

33.5 1.5

29.8 1.7

30.2 1.5

30.7 1.6

31.2 1.6

31.7 1.5

32.2 1.6

32.7 1.6

33.2 1.4

33.7 1.5

34 1.1

7.8 1.7

7.9 1.6

8.1 1.6

8.2 1.6

8.3 1.4

8.4 1.4

8.5 1.4

8.7 1.3

8.8 1.3

8.9 1.1

1.2 4.2

1.2 4.1

1.3 4.2

1.3 4.1

1.4 4

1.4 3.9

1.5 3.7

1.6 8.1

1.6 -1

1.7 3.9

18.6 1.6

18.9 1.6

19.2 1.6

19.5 1.6

19.8 1.6

20.2 1.6

20.5 1.7

20.8 1.6

21.2 1.7

21.5 1.7

28702.9

29752.8

30860.8

32031

33265

34535

35863.6

37258

38782.7

40327

580.6 2.5

595.1 2.5

609.8 2.5

624.7 2.5

640 2.4

655.5 2.4

671.3 2.4

687.5 2.4

703.7 2.4

720.3 2.4

250.7 2.5

256.9 2.5

263.2 2.5

269.6 2.4

276 2.4

282.6 2.4

289.3 2.4

296 2.3

302.8 2.3

309.6 2.3

6

6

6

5.9

5.9

5.9

6

6

6

5.9

6875 4086 2789

6914 4201 2713

6972 4323 2649

6989 4413 2577

6896 4410 2486

6813 4393 2420

6755 4384 2371

6685 4364 2321

6658 4398 2260

6613 4403 2210

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

85


Ocal a

Profiles

Outlook Summaries

Comprised of Marion County only, the Ocala MSA is located northwest of the Orlando area and is in the center of the state. The second largest national forest in Florida, the Ocala National Forest, and Silver Springs are two main outdoor attractions in the area.

The Ocala Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show varying strengths and weaknesses in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to average 5.3 percent annually, the second highest of the twelve metros. Per capita income level is the second lowest of the twelve metros at 30.1. Relative to other metro areas, Ocala will have the lowest average annual wage level at 40.1. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.0 percent, the second highest of the MSAs. The metro has an expected annual population growth of 1.7 percent. The Gross Metro Product is expected to be 6,994.20 (Mill), the lowest in the studied areas. Employment growth is expected to average a rate of 2.1 percent annually. The unemployment rate is estimated to be 10.3 percent, the highest of the researched areas. The Construction and Mining sector is expected to be the fastest growing sector in Ocala, averaging an annual growth rate of 6.2 percent. The Professional and Business Services sector follows with a growth rate of 4.7 percent. The third ranked is the Information sector at 2.7 percent. The Federal Government sector is the only sector expected to experience negative growth, with an average annual rate of growth at -1.5 percent.

Quick Facts:

• Population estimate of 331,298 as of 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau). • A civilian labor force of 131,340 in December of 2006 (Florida Department of Economic Opportunity).

• An unemployment rate of 9.7% not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 118,600 unemployed people (Florida Department of Economic Opportunity). Top Area Employers:

• Marion County School Board – 6,071

• State of Florida (all departments) – 2,600

• Munroe Regional Medical Center – 2,648 • Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. – 2,370

• Ocala Regional Medical Center & West Marion Community Hospital – 1,725 • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 1,488

• Marion County Board of County Commissioners – 1,462 • Emergency One, Inc. – 1,274 • AT&T – 1,000

• City of Ocala – 994 Source: Ocala/Marion Economic Development Council

Metro News Summaries EDC looks to pull plug on firm’s incentive package • The Ocala-Marion County Economic Development Corp., or EDC, has asked the County Commission to withdraw an incentive package for Integrated Manufacturing, a Colorado-based company that once sought financial aid in return for bringing almost 200 new jobs to the community.

• The agency petitioned the County Commission to “disengage” from Integrated Manufacturing because the firm had been unresponsive to the EDC’s requests for more detailed information about its operations. • The company intends to proceed with plans to establish operations in Ocala, said CEO Nolin Williams.

Source: Ocala.com, April 16, 2012 86

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012


Oca l a

$2M in grants now in place, but food company still not signed • In January, the County Commission awarded CitraPac, maker of a snack called Fruit Pearls — pellets of oranges and tangerines created by freezing fresh citrus in liquid nitrogen — a $755,000 incentive package.

• Two-thirds of the money is intended to assist in rent and utilities for the firm, with the rest slated to partially match a $1.02 million state grant — for a total of $1.275 million — that would constitute a rebate for any income, sales or property taxes related to the relocation.

• This year’s 2011-12 operating budget is about $303 million, with 85 percent going to salaries and benefits of the district’s nearly 6,000 employees, including about 3,000 teachers.

• The district’s operating budget has declined by $50 million, or 17 percent, since 2007-08. The budget was cut $24 million in 2011-12 alone — $5 million more than expected.

Source: Ocala.com, April 19, 2012

• Yet Enterprise Florida, the state’s economic development agency charged with vetting the proposal, was still awaiting more information from CitraPac. Specifically, financial data and the name of the “mystery company” that was backing CitraPac.

Source: Ocala.com, April 20, 2012

School Board suspends impact fee for another year • For the second straight year, the Marion County School Board has decided to suspend the collection of school impact fees, money that’s levied on new residential construction to help the school district pay for growth.

• The district’s student population has remained nearly stagnant recently in the wake of the economic downturn that began in late 2007. As a result, new single-family, multi-family and mobile home construction has also slowed. • The board will revisit the impact fee again in spring 2013 for the 2013-14 year.

Source: Ocala.com, April 19, 2012

State budget bolsters Marion schools by $8.4M

• Despite the increase, the district will only break about even because it will lose $8.3 million in federal jobs bill money that expires this year. And that does not include the increase in expenses of doing business.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

87


Ocal a Ocala MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manuf acturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Inf ormation Financial Activities Prof essional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Ocala Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

0.8

1.6

1.8

20000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

5000.0

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 FL Unemployment Rate Ocala Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

120.0 100.0 80.0

88

1.4

10000.0

140.0

60.0

1.2

Ocala Real Gross Metro Product

0.0

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 Ocala Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 Real Gross Metro Product

Ocala Real Personal Income

Ocala Payroll Employment 160.0

1

15000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

0.6

12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0%

(percent change year ago)

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 Real Personal Income


Oca l a

Quarterly Outlook for Ocala, FL

July 2012 Forecast

2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

11.2 3.6 3.5 7.7

11.4 4.6 3.5 7.8

11.5 5.4 3.6 7.9

11.6 5.3 3.6 8

11.8 5.1 3.7 8.1

11.9 4.7 3.7 8.2

12 4.6 3.8 8.3

12.3 5.5 3.8 8.4

12.4 5.6 3.9 8.5

12.6 5.7 3.9 8.6

12.8 5.9 4 8.8

13 5.9 4.1 8.9

13.2 6.3 4.1 9.1

13.4 6.5 4.2 9.2

13.6 6.8 4.2 9.4

9.7 2

9.8 3.6

9.9 4.4

10 4.7

10.1 4.3

10.2 3.5

10.3 3.3

10.4 3.8

10.5 3.6

10.6 3.7

10.7 3.9

10.8 3.9

10.9 4.4

11.1 4.7

11.2 5

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

33.5 29

33.9 29.4

34.3 29.6

34.5 29.7

34.8 29.9

35 30

35.3 30.1

35.8 30.3

36 30.4

36.2 30.4

36.5 30.5

36.9 30.7

37.2 30.8

37.6 31

37.9 31.2

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

38.3 3.4

38.6 2.7

38.9 2.7

39.1 2.8

39.4 2.8

39.6 2.7

39.9 2.6

40.2 2.7

40.5 2.9

40.8 3

41.1 3.1

41.4 3.1

41.8 3.1

42.1 3.1

42.4 3.1

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

90.8 0.3

91.3 0.6

91.8 1.1

92.3 2.1

92.9 2.4

93.5 2.3

94 2.4

94.6 2.5

95.2 2.4

95.8 2.5

96.5 2.6

97.2 2.7

97.9 2.9

98.7 3

99.5 3.1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

6.7 3.9

6.8 5.1

6.8 2.7

6.8 0.9

6.9 2.1

6.9 2.4

7 2.9

7 3.2

7.1 2.6

7.1 2.4

7.1 2.2

7.2 1.8

7.2 1.6

7.2 1.3

7.2 1

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

84 0.1

84.6 0.2

85.1 1

85.5 2.2

86 2.4

86.5 2.3

87.1 2.3

87.6 2.4

88.1 2.4

88.7 2.5

89.4 2.7

90 2.8

90.7 3

91.5 3.1

92.3 3.2

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

5.5 -5.1

5.5 -3

5.5 0

5.5 1

5.6 2.9

5.7 4.6

5.8 6.7

6 8.5

6.2 9.9

6.3 11.1

6.6 12.4

6.8 13.2

7 14

7.3 14.6

7.5 14.2

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

20.1 -1.8

20.3 -1.1

20.4 0.9

20.5 2.4

20.7 2.5

20.8 2.5

20.9 2.4

21 2.2

21.1 2

21.2 1.8

21.3 1.9

21.4 2.1

21.6 2.3

21.7 2.6

21.9 2.8

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.1 14.3 2.7

3.2 14.4 2.7

3.2 14.5 2.7

3.2 14.5 2.7

3.2 14.6 2.8

3.3 14.6 2.8

3.3 14.7 2.8

3.3 14.6 2.9

3.3 14.6 2.9

3.3 14.7 2.9

3.4 14.7 2.9

3.4 14.8 3

3.4 14.9 3

3.5 15 3

3.5 15.1 3.1

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.6 1.8

1.6 -0.7

1.6 3.3

1.6 2.3

1.7 3.9

1.7 4.5

1.7 3.4

1.7 3.4

1.7 2.3

1.7 1.6

1.7 1.6

1.7 2.1

1.7 2.5

1.8 3.1

1.8 3.2

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

4.2 2.3

4.3 2.1

4.3 -0.5

4.3 2.9

4.3 2.4

4.4 2.2

4.4 1.8

4.4 1

4.4 0.7

4.4 0.6

4.4 0.3

4.4 0.3

4.4 0.6

4.4 0.7

4.4 0.8

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

7.3 0.8

7.4 1

7.5 1.4

7.7 5.3

7.8 5.9

7.8 6

7.9 5.4

8 4.7

8.2 5.2

8.3 6

8.5 6.6

8.6 7.1

8.7 7.1

8.9 7

9 7

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

14.1 2.9

14.2 2.6

14.3 2.2

14.3 2.5

14.4 2.3

14.5 1.8

14.5 1.6

14.6 2.3

14.7 2.4

14.8 2.4

14.9 2.7

15 2.2

15.1 2.2

15.1 2.3

15.2 2.2

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

10.4 2.6

10.5 1.8

10.6 1.6

10.7 3.4

10.7 2.9

10.8 2.3

10.8 2

10.9 1.7

10.9 1.1

10.8 0.7

10.9 0.3

10.9 0.2

10.9 0.2

10.9 0.4

10.9 0.5

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

3.7 2.7

3.8 2.2

3.8 1.3

3.8 2.7

3.8 2.4

3.9 2.3

3.9 2

3.9 1.7

3.9 1.7

3.9 1.6

3.9 1.1

3.9 0.9

3.9 0.8

3.9 0.7

4 1

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

0.7 0.7

0.7 -1.7

0.7 -2.6

0.7 -2.5

0.7 -1.7

0.7 -2.1

0.7 -2.2

0.7 -2.1

0.7 -2

0.7 -1.9

0.7 -1.7

0.7 -1.5

0.7 -1.2

0.7 -0.9

0.7 -0.6

16.4 -1.3

16.4 -1.1

16.3 -0.2

16.3 0.2

16.4 0.1

16.4 0.2

16.4 0.6

16.5 0.7

16.5 0.9

16.6 1

16.6 1.1

16.7 1.3

16.7 1.4

16.8 1.5

16.9 1.5

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil)

6643.9

6691.2

6742.3

6783.5

6828.1

6869.4

6918

6973.1

7034.4

7105.8

7186.5

7262.8

7342.2

7424

7505

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

333.9 0.4

334.8 0.6

335.7 0.8

336.9 1

338.2 1.3

339.6 1.5

341.3 1.7

343.1 1.8

345 2

347.2 2.2

349.4 2.4

351.9 2.6

354.4 2.7

357 2.8

359.5 2.9

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

133.1 -0.5

134.3 0

135.7 0.9

137.3 3.5

138.3 3.9

139.3 3.7

140.2 3.3

140.8 2.6

141.7 2.4

142.5 2.3

143 2.1

143.5 1.9

144 1.7

144.7 1.5

145.1 1.4

Unemployment Rate (%)

9.9

10.1

10.2

10.3

10.5

10.6

10.7

10.7

10.6

10.5

10.4

10.2

10

9.9

9.7

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

536 523 13

686 665 22

847 810 37

1059 1001 58

1376 1298 78

1690 1587 103

2049 1915 134

2287 2135 152

2543 2379 164

2821 2647 173

3041 2861 181

3243 3050 192

3442 3247 195

3594 3398 196

3700 3500 200

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

89


Ocal a

Annual Outlook for Ocala, FL

July 2012

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

6.9 7.4 2.7 4.2

7.7 11 3 4.7

8.6 11.9 3.3 5.3

9.6 11.7 3.7 5.9

10.2 5.6 3.8 6.4

10.5 3.6 3.7 6.8

10.1 -4.1 3.4 6.7

10.4 2.7 3.3 7

10.8 4.5 3.4 7.4

11.3 4.2 3.5 7.7

7.3 5.3

7.9 8.2

8.6 8.6

9.4 8.7

9.6 2.8

9.7 0.3

9.2 -4.3

9.3 0.9

9.5 2

9.8 2.8

24.6 26

26.3 27.1

28.2 28.2

30.3 29.5

31.2 29.5

31.9 29.3

30.5 27.9

31.2 28.1

32.5 28.6

33.7 29.2

30.1 6

30.9 2.6

32.2 4

34.5 7.3

34.9 1.2

35.9 2.8

36.1 0.6

36.5 1

37.3 2.3

38.5 3.1

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

90

89.9 3.4

95.9 6.6

101.5 5.9

106.2 4.6

106.8 0.5

102 -4.5

93.1 -8.7

90.9 -2.4

90.7 -0.3

91.1 0.5

9.2 -1

9.6 4

9.9 3.6

9.9 -0.6

9.6 -3.1

8.3 -13.8

6.7 -19.4

6.4 -3.7

6.5 1.2

6.8 4.2

80.7 3.9

86.3 6.9

91.6 6.2

96.3 5.1

97.2 0.9

93.7 -3.6

86.5 -7.8

84.5 -2.3

84.2 -0.4

84.3 0.2

8.5 15.3

9.9 16.7

10.7 8.8

12.6 17.1

11.6 -7.6

9.7 -16.9

7.3 -24.4

6.3 -13.7

5.7 -9.8

5.5 -3.7

20.9 2

21.7 3.6

22.9 5.7

23.4 1.9

23.8 1.7

22.7 -4.4

20.5 -9.8

20.1 -1.9

20.4 1.4

20.2 -0.8

3.3 15.1 2.5

3.6 15.6 2.5

3.9 16.3 2.7

4.2 16.4 2.7

4.4 16.4 2.9

4.1 15.8 2.9

3.5 14.5 2.5

3.4 14.4 2.4

3.3 14.5 2.5

3.2 14.4 2.7

2.2 -5.1

2.2 1.1

2.2 -2.3

2.1 -1.9

2 -7.2

1.9 -2.9

1.7 -12

1.5 -9.4

1.6 3.9

1.6 2.2

4.3 9.2

4.9 12.4

5.4 11.2

5.8 6.1

6 3.6

5.9 -0.5

5.1 -13.4

4.2 -19.1

4.2 1.3

4.2 0.9

7.6 4.8

8.2 7.4

8.9 9.5

9.3 4.1

8.5 -8.3

8.2 -4.5

7.7 -5.1

7.4 -4.7

7.3 -0.4

7.4 0.5

10.5 8.5

11.1 6

12 7.7

12.7 5.8

13.3 4.7

13.5 1.6

12.9 -4.4

13.4 4.2

13.8 2.4

14.1 2.7

7.7 0.9

8.7 13.1

9.2 6.3

9.7 4.8

10.6 9.4

10.4 -1.9

10 -3.9

10.1 0.9

10.3 2.2

10.5 1.7

3.6 -1.6

3.8 7.7

4 5.2

4.1 1.9

4.3 4.6

3.9 -8.5

3.6 -7.7

3.7 1.6

3.7 -0.4

3.8 2.2

0.7 -2.3

0.7 0

0.7 0

0.7 0.1

0.7 -0.1

0.7 2.4

0.7 1

0.9 27.5

0.7 -24.2

0.7 -0.9

14.7 0.4

15.1 2.3

15.4 2.3

16 3.6

16.5 2.9

16.8 2.2

16.9 0.3

16.9 0.3

16.5 -2.2

16.3 -1.2

5742.3

6224.3

6738.9

7145.1

7252.4

7019.8

6574

6549.9

6576.6

6668.6

281.6 3.2

292.8 4

305.2 4.2

317.3 4

325.9 2.7

329.9 1.2

330.9 0.3

331.5 0.2

332.7 0.3

334.5 0.5

114.3 2.3

118.9 4

126.8 6.7

132.6 4.6

137.7 3.9

138.4 0.5

135 -2.5

134.3 -0.5

134 -0.2

134 0

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

5.4

4.6

3.7

3.4

4.4

7.8

12.5

13.4

12.3

10.2

6877 6135 742

5189 5113 76

7269 6665 604

7183 6885 297

3165 2821 344

1211 1190 22

410 391 18

493 491 2

374 368 6

617 595 22


Oca l a

Annual Outlook for Ocala, FL

July 2012

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

11.8 4.9 3.7 8.1

12.5 5.7 3.9 8.6

13.3 6.4 4.1 9.2

14.2 7.1 4.4 9.8

15.2 6.5 4.7 10.5

16.1 6.3 4.9 11.2

17.1 6 5.2 11.9

18 5.6 5.4 12.6

19 5.3 5.7 13.3

20.1 5.6 5.9 14.1

10.1 3.9

10.5 3.7

11 4.5

11.6 5.4

12.2 5

12.7 4.7

13.3 4.5

13.9 4.1

14.4 3.7

14.9 3.9

34.9 29.9

36.1 30.4

37.4 30.9

38.9 31.7

40.4 32.4

41.7 33

43 33.5

44.3 34

45.6 34.5

47 35

39.5 2.7

40.6 2.9

41.9 3.1

43.2 3.1

44.6 3.2

46.1 3.4

47.7 3.4

49.3 3.3

50.9 3.4

52.7 3.4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

93.2 2.3

95.5 2.5

98.3 2.9

101.2 3

103.7 2.5

105.8 1.9

107.4 1.6

109 1.4

110.4 1.3

111.9 1.4

6.9 2.1

7.1 2.6

7.2 1.4

7.2 0.2

7.2 -0.5

7.1 -0.5

7.1 -0.7

7 -0.6

7 -0.6

7 -0.6

86.3 2.3

88.5 2.5

91.1 3

94 3.2

96.6 2.7

98.6 2.1

100.3 1.7

101.9 1.6

103.4 1.4

105 1.6

5.7 3.8

6.3 10.5

7.2 14

8 11.8

8.6 7.2

8.9 4

9.1 1.8

9.2 1.2

9.3 1.4

9.4 1.2

20.7 2.4

21.1 2

21.7 2.5

22.3 3

22.8 2.4

23.2 1.6

23.4 1

23.6 0.8

23.8 0.6

23.9 0.7

3.2 14.6 2.8

3.3 14.7 2.9

3.5 14.9 3

3.6 15.3 3.2

3.7 15.5 3.3

3.8 15.8 3.4

3.9 15.9 3.5

3.9 16.1 3.5

4 16.1 3.5

4 16.2 3.6

1.7 3.5

1.7 2.2

1.7 2.7

1.8 2.7

1.8 2.8

1.9 2.4

1.9 2

2 1.6

2 2

2 2.2

4.3 2.3

4.4 0.7

4.4 0.6

4.4 0.8

4.5 1.6

4.6 1.6

4.6 1.4

4.7 1.2

4.7 0.9

4.8 1.3

7.8 5.6

8.2 5.6

8.8 7

9.3 5.9

9.8 5.2

10.3 4.4

10.7 4

11.1 4.3

11.7 5.4

12.4 5.5

14.4 2.1

14.8 2.4

15.1 2.2

15.5 3

16 2.8

16.4 2.5

16.8 2.4

17.1 2.3

17.4 1.5

17.6 1.3

10.7 2.6

10.9 1

10.9 0.3

10.9 0.4

11 0.2

11 0.1

11 0.2

11 -0.2

10.9 -0.1

10.9 -0.2

3.8 2.4

3.9 1.5

3.9 0.8

4 1.4

4 1.4

4.1 0.9

4.1 0.8

4.1 0.7

4.2 0.6

4.2 0.6

0.7 -2.1

0.7 -1.9

0.7 -1

0.7 -0.2

0.7 0.1

0.7 0.2

0.7 0.5

0.8 14.9

0.7 -9.8

0.7 1.2

16.4 0.3

16.5 0.9

16.8 1.4

17.1 1.7

17.4 1.8

17.7 2

18.1 1.9

18.3 1.5

18.6 1.5

18.9 1.7

6849.8

7074.9

7383.5

7695.6

7995

8283.7

8563.9

8837

9077.3

9341.6

339 1.4

346.2 2.1

355.7 2.7

365.8 2.8

375.9 2.8

386.3 2.8

396.9 2.7

407 2.6

416.8 2.4

426.6 2.4

138.8 3.6

142 2.4

144.3 1.6

146.4 1.5

149.1 1.8

152.2 2.1

155.3 2

158.2 1.9

160.9 1.7

163.6 1.7

10.5

10.6

9.9

9.2

8.8

8.4

8.1

8

8

7.9

1543 1450 93

2673 2506 168

3495 3299 196

3861 3632 229

4002 3741 261

3975 3706 269

3990 3722 268

4001 3742 259

3909 3662 247

3851 3613 238

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

91


Ocal a

Annual Outlook for Ocala, FL

July 2012

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

21.2 5.8 6.2 15

22.5 5.9 6.5 16

23.8 5.7 6.8 16.9

25.1 5.7 7.2 17.9

26.6 5.8 7.6 19

28.1 5.6 8 20.1

29.6 5.5 8.4 21.2

31.2 5.4 8.9 22.3

33 5.6 9.4 23.6

34.8 5.7 9.9 24.9

15.5 4

16.1 3.9

16.7 3.8

17.3 3.7

18 3.8

18.7 3.6

19.3 3.5

20 3.4

20.7 3.5

21.4 3.6

48.6 35.5

50.3 36.1

52 36.6

53.7 37.1

55.6 37.7

57.4 38.2

59.3 38.7

61.1 39.1

63.1 39.6

65.3 40.2

54.5 3.5

56.4 3.5

58.4 3.5

60.5 3.6

62.7 3.6

64.9 3.6

67.3 3.7

69.8 3.6

72.4 3.8

75.1 3.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

92

113.4 1.3

114.7 1.2

116.4 1.4

118.3 1.6

120.3 1.7

122.4 1.7

124.6 1.8

126.8 1.7

129.1 1.8

131.6 1.9

6.9 -1.1

6.8 -1.3

6.7 -1.5

6.6 -1.7

6.5 -1.5

6.4 -1.6

6.3 -1.5

6.2 -1.4

6.1 -1.2

6 -1.3

106.5 1.5

108 1.3

109.7 1.6

111.7 1.8

113.8 1.9

116 1.9

118.3 2

120.6 1.9

123 2

125.5 2.1

9.6 1.7

9.8 2

10 2.5

10.3 3

10.6 2.5

10.8 2

11 1.8

11.2 1.9

11.5 2.7

11.8 2.7

24.2 0.9

24.4 1

24.7 1.1

25 1.2

25.4 1.5

25.7 1.5

26.1 1.4

26.4 1.1

26.7 1.2

27 1.1

4 16.3 3.7

4.1 16.4 3.7

4.1 16.6 3.8

4.1 16.8 3.9

4.2 17 4

4.2 17.3 4

4.2 17.5 4.1

4.2 17.8 4.2

4.2 18 4.2

4.2 18.3 4.3

2.1 1.2

2.1 0.5

2.1 0.9

2.1 1.4

2.2 1.9

2.2 2.2

2.3 2.4

2.3 2

2.4 2.1

2.4 2.1

4.9 1.3

4.9 1.3

5 1.5

5.1 1.5

5.2 1.7

5.3 2

5.4 2

5.5 1.9

5.6 2

5.7 1.9

12.9 4.1

13.2 2.6

13.7 3.5

14.2 4.1

14.8 3.7

15.3 3.8

16 4.2

16.6 4

17.4 4.8

18.3 5.3

17.9 1.3

18.1 1.1

18.3 1.2

18.6 1.6

18.9 1.8

19.3 2

19.7 2.1

20 1.9

20.4 1.8

20.8 1.8

10.9 -0.1

10.9 0.3

11 0.4

11.1 0.8

11.2 1.3

11.4 1.5

11.6 1.7

11.8 1.4

11.9 1.6

12.1 1.6

4.2 0.8

4.3 1

4.3 1.4

4.4 1.4

4.5 1.4

4.5 1.5

4.6 1.6

4.7 1.5

4.7 1.3

4.8 1.1

0.7 3.8

0.8 5.3

0.8 5.2

0.8 5

0.9 4.9

0.9 4.8

1 4.7

1.1 11.9

1.1 -2

1.1 4.6

19.2 1.6

19.5 1.4

19.8 1.4

20 1.3

20.3 1.3

20.5 1.3

20.8 1.3

21 1.1

21.3 1.1

21.5 1.1

9646.5

9962.3

10291.7

10629.6

10971.5

11319.5

11683.8

12066.9

12480

12901.2

436.5 2.3

446.7 2.3

457 2.3

467.5 2.3

478.2 2.3

488.9 2.2

499.8 2.2

510.9 2.2

522.3 2.2

533.8 2.2

166.5 1.8

169.6 1.8

172.4 1.7

175.5 1.8

178.7 1.8

182 1.8

185.4 1.8

188.8 1.8

192.3 1.8

195.8 1.8

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

7.8

7.7

7.6

7.5

7.4

7.3

7.3

7.2

7.1

7

3924 3701 224

4136 3920 215

4225 4008 217

4280 4059 221

4229 4005 224

4156 3930 226

4118 3896 222

4151 3937 214

4131 3924 208

4030 3828 202


Oca l a

Annual Outlook for Ocala, FL

July 2012

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

36.8 5.5 10.4 26.3

38.7 5.4 10.9 27.8

40.9 5.5 11.5 29.4

43.1 5.5 12 31.1

45.4 5.4 12.6 32.8

47.9 5.5 13.2 34.7

50.5 5.4 13.9 36.7

53.2 5.3 14.5 38.7

56 5.3 15.2 40.8

59 5.4 16 43

22.2 3.5

22.9 3.3

23.7 3.4

24.5 3.5

25.3 3.3

26.2 3.4

27.1 3.3

27.9 3.2

28.8 3.2

29.8 3.3

67.4 40.7

69.5 41.1

71.8 41.6

74.1 42.1

76.5 42.6

79 43.2

81.5 43.7

84.1 44.1

86.7 44.6

89.5 45.1

77.7 3.5

80.4 3.5

83.2 3.4

86 3.4

88.9 3.4

91.9 3.4

95.1 3.4

98.3 3.4

101.6 3.4

105 3.3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

133.7 1.6

135.5 1.3

137.3 1.4

139.3 1.4

141.2 1.4

143.2 1.4

145.2 1.4

147.2 1.4

149.3 1.4

151.5 1.5

6 -1.4

5.9 -1.3

5.8 -1.3

5.7 -1.2

5.7 -1.2

5.6 -1.1

5.6 -0.8

5.5 -0.8

5.5 -0.8

5.4 -0.8

127.7 1.8

129.6 1.5

131.5 1.5

133.6 1.5

135.6 1.5

137.6 1.5

139.7 1.5

141.7 1.5

143.8 1.5

146.1 1.6

12.1 2.4

12.3 1.7

12.5 1.7

12.7 1.9

13 1.9

13.2 1.8

13.4 1.7

13.6 1

13.7 1.2

13.9 1.5

27.3 1

27.5 0.8

27.7 0.8

28 0.9

28.2 0.9

28.5 1

28.8 1

29.1 1

29.4 1.1

29.7 1.1

4.3 18.5 4.3

4.2 18.7 4.3

4.2 18.9 4.3

4.2 19.1 4.4

4.2 19.4 4.4

4.2 19.6 4.4

4.2 19.9 4.4

4.2 20.2 4.4

4.2 20.4 4.4

4.3 20.7 4.4

2.5 2.1

2.5 2.1

2.6 2.3

2.6 2.4

2.7 2.3

2.8 2.3

2.8 2.4

2.9 2.3

2.9 2.3

3 2.3

5.8 1.7

5.9 1.6

6 1.7

6.1 1.7

6.2 1.5

6.3 1.5

6.4 1.4

6.4 1

6.5 0.6

6.5 0.6

19 3.7

19.6 3

20.1 2.9

20.7 2.9

21.3 2.8

21.9 2.8

22.5 2.8

23.2 3.1

24 3.5

24.9 3.6

21.1 1.5

21.4 1.3

21.6 1.2

21.9 1.3

22.2 1.3

22.5 1.4

22.8 1.3

23.1 1.4

23.5 1.4

23.8 1.5

12.3 1.4

12.5 1.2

12.6 1.3

12.8 1.3

12.9 1.2

13.1 1.3

13.3 1.3

13.4 1.2

13.6 1.3

13.8 1.2

4.8 1.1

4.9 1

4.9 1

5 1.1

5 0.9

5.1 0.8

5.1 0.9

5.1 0.7

5.2 0.7

5.2 0.5

1.2 4.4

1.2 4.4

1.3 4.5

1.3 4.4

1.4 4.3

1.4 4.1

1.5 3.9

1.6 9.1

1.6 -1.7

1.7 4.3

21.7 1

22 1

22.2 1

22.4 1

22.6 1

22.9 1

23.1 0.8

23.2 0.8

23.4 0.8

23.6 0.8

13308.4

13718.1

14149.4

14603

15078.5

15565.8

16074.1

16602.8

17174.5

17776.2

545.6 2.2

557.4 2.2

569.5 2.2

581.8 2.2

594.2 2.1

606.8 2.1

619.6 2.1

632.6 2.1

645.8 2.1

659.5 2.1

199.3 1.8

202.9 1.8

206.4 1.8

210 1.7

213.5 1.7

217.1 1.7

220.8 1.7

224.3 1.6

227.9 1.6

231.4 1.6

6.9

6.9

6.8

6.8

6.8

6.8

6.8

6.8

6.8

6.8

4028 3832 196

4093 3904 189

4167 3983 183

4212 4034 178

4171 4001 170

4120 3955 165

4078 3918 160

4042 3886 156

4056 3905 151

4047 3900 148

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

93


O r l an do – K i s s i m m e e

Profiles

Outlook Summaries

The Orlando–Kissimmee MSA is comprised of Lake, Orange, Osceola and Seminole Counties. Located in the southern center of the state, this area is home to numerous tourist attractions such as Walt Disney World, Universal Studios and Sea World. It is also home to the Orlando Magic and the Predators arena football team. Orlando hosts many conventions utilizing some of the biggest hotels in the country and America’s second largest convention center. The University of Central Florida, the nation’s second largest university, and many other places of higher education also reside in the MSA.

The Orlando–Kissimmee area is expected to show moderate growth in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to grow at a rate of 5.0 percent annually. The per capita income level is expected to be 32.2. Average annual wage growth will be 2.5 percent, the lowest of the studied MSAs. The average annual wage will be at a level of 46.6. The Orlando MSA will see population growth of 1.9 percent, the second highest of the studied Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). Gross Metro Product is expected to average at 103,079.65 (Mill). Employment growth is forecasted to average 1.9 percent annually. The metro will see an average unemployment rate of 7.9 percent. In the Orlando area, the fastest growing sector is expected to be the Construction and Mining sector with an average annual growth rate of 6.4 percent. This will be followed by the Professional and Business sector, with an average annual growth rate of 3.0 percent. The only sector that will experience negative growth is the Federal Government sector, with an average annual rate of growth of –1.3 percent.

QUICK FACTS: • • • • • • •

MSA population estimate of 2,171,360 for 2011 (US Census Bureau). Lake County population estimate of 296,681 for 2011 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission). Orange County population estimate of 1,021,183,903 for 2011 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission). Osceola County population estimate of 275,010 for 2011 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission). Seminole County population estimate of 429,169 for 2011 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission). A civilian labor force for the MSA of 1,109,000 in April 2012 (Florida Regional Economic Database). An unemployment rate of 8.9%, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to about 98,701 unemployed people in the Orlando MSA (Florida Regional Economic Database).

TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: • • • • • • • • • •

Walt Disney Co. – 62,000 Orange County Public Schools – 20,949 Advent Health System (Florida Hospital) – 16,771 Universal Orlando Resort – 16,000 Orlando Health – 13,666 UPS – 12,680 University of Central Florida – 10,386 Lockheed Martin Corp. – 9,000 Orange County Government – 7,654 SeaWorld Parks & Entertainment – 7,000

Source: Orlando Business Journal, Book of Lists 2012 94

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

Metro News Summaries Four Orlando hotel projects on tap this year

• More than 1,350 jobs will be created in 2012 because of four different Central Florida hotel projects.

• One of these hotels is Walt Disney World’s new Art of Animation. It will include 1,984 rooms and add 750 jobs during the next six months, as well as 800 temporary construction jobs. • The rest of the jobs will come from the 300room Embassy Suites in Osceola County, a Drury Inn & Suites on Sand Lake Road, and a Ramada Inn on I-drive.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, April 1, 2011 Rollins planning $87.8 in capital projects

• Rollins College plans to renovate its century-old campus over the next ten years. It will spend 11.8 on the next two years on four projects.


Orlando – Kissimmee

It will create 118 temporary jobs. All of these projects are funded in full by private donations, bonds, and capital reserves.

• One of the projects consists of replacing a 30bed dorm without central air-conditioning with a new 70-bed residence hall which should be completed by September 2013. • Rollins plans on renovating the library as well as adding to the landscape.

• The College will expand the campus center by renovating kitchens and furniture, as well as fixtures and equipment. It may include a 8,400 sq. ft. addition. This expansion/refurbishment will cost $4 million.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, April 1, 2012

Orlando Health breaks ground on $297 million patient tower, renovation project

• In December 2011, Orlando Health made a New Year’s resolution to create a 10-story, 345,000-square-foot tower that will hold 190 beds. The campus is just south of downtown.

• Its estimated completion date is 2014. The $297M redesign will include a new entry plaza, patient drop off/pick up center, a two-story lobby, and educational/conference space.

• It will also be enlarging the emergency center, trauma center, cardiovascular and surgical services, critical care, pharmacy, and laboratory.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, April 26, 2012 Orlando ranked No. 4 among best airports

• Travel+Leisure magazine just published its inaugural Best and Worst Airports list. 22 major airports in the US were ranked using seven classifications which included flight delays, design, amenities, food and drink, check-in and security, service, and transportation and location.

did not rank so highly in other traits, including check-in and security as well as location.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, April 27, 2012

Orange County Convention Center ranked top center in U.S.

• Business Review USA ranked the OCCC as the best convention center, attributing its success to excellent guest experience. The center offers three dine-in restaurants, eight food courts, and remote access for guests to check into their flights. • It also was cited for its economic impact. The OCCC is responsible for saving taxes for surrounding households every year.

• OCCC, the second largest convention center, attracts more than 200 events and 1.2 million attendees. It is estimated that it contributes $1.9 billion to the area’s economy.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, May 7, 2012

Board of Governors approve increase in capital improvement fee at UCF

• UCF sought state permission to fund the renovation of its library. They asked to increase the student activity fee by $2 per credit hour.

• On June 21, the Florida Board of Governors approved the increase. It is the first time the fee has increased since 1989 and could yield about $25 million in 2013, and $19 million annually after that. • UCF will expand the library in three phases. The first phase is to build 9,000-sq-ft addition that would house the Automatic Retrieval Center. The second phase will include more workspace and seating. The third will add onto the 2010 Knowledge Commons project.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, June 8, 2012

• OIA was ranked first when it came for kids’ zones and luggage trolleys. It was ranked second for shopping and third for Wi-Fi. The airport

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

95


O r l an do – K i s s i m m e e Orlando - Kissimmee MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Providing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manuf acturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Inf ormation Financial Activities Prof essional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Orlando Unemployment Rate (percent)

12.0%

0.6

0.8

300000.0

8.0%

150000.0

1.6

1.8

(Millions 2000 $)

100000.0

4.0%

50000.0

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 FL Unemployment Rate Orlando Unemployment Rate

0.0

1800.0

(Thousands)

1600.0

10.0%

(percent change year ago)

5.0%

1400.0

0.0%

1200.0 1000.0

-5.0%

800.0 600.0

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 Real Gross Metro Product

Orlando Real Personal Income

Orlando Payroll Employment

96

1.4

250000.0 200000.0

2.0%

1.2

Orlando Real Gross Metro Product

10.0% 6.0%

1

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 Orlando Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

-10.0%

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 Real Personal Income


Orlando – Kissimmee

Quarterly Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL

July 2012 Forecast

2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

79.5 3.3 45.8 33.7

80.6 4.1 46.3 34.3

81.7 4.6 46.9 34.7

82.6 5 47.5 35.1

83.5 5.1 47.9 35.6

84.5 4.8 48.4 36

85.4 4.6 48.9 36.5

86.7 5.1 49.5 37.3

87.7 5 50 37.7

88.9 5.3 50.6 38.3

90.1 5.5 51.3 38.9

91.6 5.6 52 39.6

92.9 5.9 52.6 40.3

94.2 6 53.3 40.9

95.6 6.1 54 41.6

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

68.9 1.7

69.8 3.1

70.6 3.6

71.1 4.4

71.8 4.3

72.3 3.6

72.8 3.2

73.6 3.4

74 3.1

74.6 3.2

75.4 3.5

76.2 3.6

77 4

77.8 4.2

78.6 4.2

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

36.1 31.3

36.4 31.5

36.7 31.7

37 31.9

37.2 32

37.5 32.1

37.7 32.2

38.1 32.3

38.3 32.3

38.6 32.4

39 32.6

39.4 32.8

39.7 32.9

40.1 33.1

40.4 33.2

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

44.8 3.3

45.1 2.5

45.4 2.3

45.7 2.3

45.9 2.3

46.1 2.2

46.4 2.1

46.7 2.3

47 2.4

47.3 2.5

47.6 2.6

47.9 2.6

48.2 2.7

48.5 2.7

48.8 2.6

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

1016.2 0.5

1022 1.1

1028.5 1.1

1034.8 2.2

1040.1 2.4

1045.4 2.3

1050.4 2.1

1054.9 1.9

1060.2 1.9

1066.5 2

1073.5 2.2

1080.4 2.4

1087.3 2.6

1094.6 2.6

1102 2.7

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

38 -0.2

38.3 1.5

38.4 1.9

38.6 1.7

39.1 2.8

39.4 3.1

39.7 3.4

40 3.5

40.2 3

40.5 2.7

40.7 2.5

40.9 2.2

41 1.8

41.1 1.4

41.1 1

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

978.2 0.5

983.7 1.1

990 1.1

996.2 2.2

1001 2.3

1005.9 2.3

1010.6 2.1

1014.9 1.9

1019.9 1.9

1026 2

1032.7 2.2

1039.5 2.4

1046.3 2.6

1053.5 2.7

1060.9 2.7

42.7 -4.4

42.8 0.5

42.9 0.2

43.2 0.5

43.8 2.5

44.5 4

45.5 6

46.7 7.9

47.9 9.4

49.3 10.7

50.8 11.5

52.8 13.1

54.8 14.3

56.7 15.2

58.6 15.3

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

191.2 0.5

192.4 1.4

193.6 2

194.8 2.1

195.6 2.3

196.9 2.3

197.8 2.2

198.4 1.9

199.4 1.9

200.4 1.8

201.6 1.9

202.6 2.1

203.6 2.1

204.9 2.2

206.4 2.4

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

37.8 122.8 30.6

38.1 123.1 30.8

38.4 123.7 31

38.8 123.9 31.4

39 124 31.7

39.3 124.5 31.9

39.5 124.6 32.2

39.7 124.3 32.4

40 124.2 32.6

40.3 124.4 32.8

40.6 124.8 33.1

41 125.1 33.4

41.3 125.6 33.7

41.7 126.4 34

42.1 127.3 34.4

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

23.5 -1.4

23.6 -0.2

23.7 -0.5

24 1.6

24.3 3.6

24.6 4.3

24.6 3.8

24.7 3.1

24.7 1.4

24.7 0.6

24.8 0.8

25.1 1.6

25.2 2.1

25.3 2.5

25.4 2.3

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

64.2 0.1

64.5 -1

64.8 -0.6

65.1 1.9

65.3 1.6

65.4 1.4

65.5 1.1

65.4 0.5

65.4 0.3

65.5 0.2

65.6 0.2

65.7 0.5

65.9 0.7

66.1 0.8

66.2 0.8

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

158.2 -2.2

158.9 -1.2

161.2 -0.2

163.5 3.6

165 4.3

166.3 4.6

167.1 3.7

167.8 2.6

169.8 2.9

172.7 3.8

175.6 5.1

177.8 5.9

180 6

182.2 5.5

184.2 4.9

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

123.3 0.3

124.8 1.2

125.6 1.3

125.8 2.7

126.3 2.4

127 1.8

127.6 1.6

128.7 2.3

129.5 2.5

130.1 2.5

131 2.7

131.9 2.5

133 2.7

134.1 3.1

135.2 3.2

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

211.7 4.6

213.5 4.4

214.8 3.2

216 2.9

216.8 2.4

217.3 1.8

218 1.5

218.4 1.1

218.2 0.7

217.9 0.3

217.7 -0.2

217.7 -0.3

217.4 -0.4

217.3 -0.2

217.6 0

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

47.8 0.6

48 0.6

48.1 0.6

48.4 1.6

48.5 1.4

48.7 1.5

48.8 1.5

49 1.2

49.1 1.2

49.2 1.1

49.2 0.7

49.2 0.5

49.2 0.3

49.3 0.2

49.3 0.4

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

12.1 1

12 -0.5

11.9 -1.3

11.9 -1.8

11.8 -2.1

11.7 -2.2

11.7 -2.2

11.6 -2.3

11.5 -2.2

11.5 -2.1

11.4 -2

11.4 -1.7

11.4 -1.4

11.4 -1.1

11.3 -0.9

103.4 -0.4

103.4 -0.4

103.4 -0.6

103.5 0.3

103.6 0.2

103.7 0.3

103.9 0.5

104.2 0.7

104.4 0.8

104.7 1

105.1 1.1

105.4 1.2

105.8 1.3

106.2 1.4

106.6 1.4

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil)

97938.2 98641.1 99427.1 100141 100791 101436 102123 102761 103614 104674 105845 106969 108090 109228 110354

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2203.7 1.5

2213.2 1.6

2223 1.6

2233 1.7

2243.4 1.8

2254.2 1.9

2265.3 1.9

2276.7 2

2288.3 2

2300.4 2

2312.7 2.1

2325.3 2.1

2338.2 2.2

2351.3 2.2

2364.2 2.2

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

1123.3 0.1

1129.2 0.5

1135.4 0.7

1140 1.8

1144.8 1.9

1149.5 1.8

1154.6 1.7

1159 1.7

1163.4 1.6

1168 1.6

1172.6 1.6

1177.8 1.6

1184.5 1.8

1191.9 2

1197.9 2.2

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

8.2

8.2

8.1

8

8

8.1

8.1

8

7.9

7.8

7.7

7.5

7.3

7.2

7

9041 6227 2814

9715 6484 3231

10594 6717 3876

11316 7170 4145

12382 8049 4333

13528 8946 4581

14641 9852 4790

15574 10605 4969

16796 11743 5054

18197 13024 5173

19539 14147 5391

20885 15256 5629

22227 16371 5856

23356 17268 6089

24175 17817 6358

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

97


O r l an do – K i s s i m m e e

Annual Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL

July 2012

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

53.1 5.9 33.2 19.9

58.1 9.4 36.3 21.7

64 10.2 40.2 23.8

69.9 9.3 43.5 26.5

73.4 5 45.5 27.9

75.1 2.3 45.2 29.9

71.1 -5.3 42.3 28.8

73.5 3.4 42.9 30.7

77.1 4.9 44.5 32.7

80.1 3.8 46.1 34

56.1 3.8

59.8 6.6

64 7

68.1 6.4

69.6 2.2

68.9 -0.9

65.1 -5.5

66.2 1.6

67.8 2.4

69.4 2.4

29.2 30.8

30.8 31.7

32.6 32.6

34.6 33.7

35.6 33.8

35.9 33

33.6 30.8

34.3 30.9

35.5 31.1

36.3 31.4

35.8 3.9

37.5 4.8

39.3 4.6

40.7 3.6

41.6 2.2

42 0.9

41.9 -0.2

42.6 1.8

43.8 2.7

45 2.9

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

98

921.7 2.1

964.4 4.6

1019.7 5.7

1063.9 4.3

1090.6 2.5

1072.4 -1.7

1005.6 -6.2

1000.9 -0.5

1011.8 1.1

1019.8 0.8

43.7 -4.9

44.6 2.2

45.8 2.7

45 -1.9

44.6 -0.8

42.8 -4.1

38.7 -9.6

38 -1.8

38 -0.1

38.2 0.5

878 2.4

919.8 4.8

973.8 5.9

1019 4.6

1046 2.6

1029.6 -1.6

966.9 -6.1

962.9 -0.4

973.8 1.1

981.6 0.8

66 7.4

74.2 12.5

84.4 13.8

91.2 8

85.4 -6.4

72.7 -14.8

54.5 -25

47.7 -12.5

43.8 -8.1

42.9 -2.2

173.4 1

181.6 4.8

192.8 6.1

198.9 3.1

204 2.6

200.8 -1.6

186 -7.4

186 0

189.8 2

192 1.1

40 107.4 25.9

41.9 113.5 26.2

44.7 120.1 28

46.2 122.4 30.3

47.2 123.7 33

45.8 121.9 33.1

40.4 115.5 30.1

38.4 117.9 29.7

38.1 121.6 30.1

38 123.1 30.7

23 2.5

23.7 3.1

24.6 3.9

25.7 4.6

26.7 3.7

26.2 -1.8

24.8 -5.5

23.8 -4

23.8 -0.1

23.6 -0.8

58.5 4.7

60.6 3.6

64.8 7

68.1 5.1

68.9 1.1

67.6 -1.9

63.9 -5.4

63.2 -1.1

64.7 2.3

64.4 -0.5

144.4 -0.8

148.9 3.1

160.9 8.1

173.1 7.5

181.3 4.7

177.2 -2.2

164.8 -7

161.9 -1.8

161.1 -0.5

159 -1.3

93.6 4.7

97.3 4

102.2 5

107.5 5.2

112.7 4.8

116.4 3.3

118.4 1.7

120.9 2

123.1 1.8

124.1 0.8

169.9 3

179.4 5.5

183.6 2.4

186.9 1.8

193.6 3.6

199.5 3.1

190.1 -4.7

195.6 2.9

204 4.3

212.5 4.2

45.7 0.7

47.5 4

49.9 5

53.4 7.1

55.8 4.5

51.4 -7.9

48 -6.7

47.5 -1

47.6 0.2

47.9 0.6

11.1 7

11.2 1.2

11.8 5.2

11.4 -3.5

11.5 0.3

11.8 2.7

12.1 2.6

12.8 5.8

12 -6

12 0.2

92.6 2.6

95.3 3

98.7 3.5

102.7 4.1

106.2 3.4

105.9 -0.3

104.3 -1.5

103.6 -0.7

104 0.3

103.4 -0.6

80265.9

85341.4

92375.2

97430.1

100590

98462.8

94617.8

96094.8

97076

98312

1820.7 3.1

1888.4 3.7

1962.9 3.9

2023.1 3.1

2061 1.9

2090.2 1.4

2116 1.2

2144.6 1.4

2175.3 1.4

2208.8 1.5

934 1.7

963.3 3.1

1007.5 4.6

1048.6 4.1

1103.3 5.2

1120.1 1.5

1104.4 -1.4

1113.5 0.8

1122.4 0.8

1127 0.4

5.1

4.4

3.5

3.1

3.7

5.9

10.3

11.2

10.4

8.3

27869 22882 4987

33552 26778 6774

33855 27115 6740

30111 24391 5721

18036 12623 5413

10396 5569 4827

4492 3766 726

4992 4394 598

5975 4659 1316

9487 6330 3157

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012


Orlando – Kissimmee

Annual Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL

July 2012

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

84 4.9 48.2 35.8

88.4 5.2 50.3 38

93.6 5.9 53 40.6

99.5 6.3 55.7 43.8

105.4 6 58.6 46.8

111.5 5.8 61.6 49.9

117.7 5.5 64.6 53.1

123.7 5.1 67.5 56.2

129.9 5 70.6 59.3

136.8 5.3 73.9 62.9

72 3.9

74.4 3.3

77.4 4

81 4.6

84.5 4.4

88.1 4.2

91.7 4

95 3.6

98.2 3.3

101.7 3.6

37.3 32

38.5 32.4

39.9 33

41.5 33.8

43 34.5

44.4 35.1

45.7 35.6

47 36.1

48.3 36.5

49.8 37.1

46 2.2

47.1 2.4

48.4 2.6

49.6 2.6

51 2.8

52.5 3

54.1 3

55.7 2.9

57.4 3

59.1 3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

1042.7 2.2

1063.7 2

1091.1 2.6

1118.2 2.5

1144.5 2.4

1168.3 2.1

1189.1 1.8

1207.7 1.6

1225.9 1.5

1246.2 1.7

39.2 2.7

40.4 2.9

41 1.6

41.1 0.3

41 -0.4

40.8 -0.3

40.6 -0.4

40.5 -0.3

40.4 -0.3

40.3 -0.2

1003.4 2.2

1023.4 2

1050.1 2.6

1077.1 2.6

1103.6 2.5

1127.5 2.2

1148.5 1.9

1167.1 1.6

1185.6 1.6

1206 1.7

44.3 3.3

48.7 9.9

55.7 14.5

62.2 11.6

66.8 7.3

69.9 4.7

71.7 2.6

73.1 1.9

74.6 2.1

76.1 2

196.3 2.2

200 1.9

204.4 2.2

209.5 2.5

214.2 2.3

217.8 1.7

220.2 1.1

221.8 0.7

222.9 0.5

224.3 0.7

39.2 124.3 31.8

40.2 124.4 32.7

41.5 126.1 33.9

42.9 128.7 35.2

44.4 130.5 36.6

45.7 132 37.6

46.7 133.3 38.1

47.5 133.9 38.4

48.2 134 38.8

48.9 134.3 39.3

24.4 3.3

24.7 1.5

25.2 2.1

25.7 1.7

26.3 2.4

27 2.8

27.7 2.5

28.2 1.8

28.8 2.2

29.5 2.4

65.3 1.5

65.5 0.3

66 0.7

66.5 0.9

67.7 1.7

68.8 1.7

69.7 1.3

70.3 0.9

70.8 0.7

71.5 1

165.5 4

171.5 3.6

181.1 5.6

188.9 4.3

197.4 4.5

205.8 4.2

214.2 4.1

223.1 4.2

235 5.3

247.9 5.5

126.7 2.1

129.8 2.5

133.5 2.9

138.6 3.8

143.1 3.2

146.9 2.6

150.4 2.4

153.6 2.1

155.5 1.3

157.2 1.1

217 2.2

218 0.5

217.5 -0.2

217.2 -0.1

217.2 0

217.6 0.2

218.2 0.3

217.6 -0.2

217.1 -0.3

216.2 -0.4

48.6 1.5

49.1 1.1

49.3 0.3

49.6 0.6

50.3 1.3

51 1.5

51.7 1.3

52.2 1

52.6 0.8

53 0.7

11.8 -2.1

11.5 -2.1

11.4 -1.3

11.3 -0.5

11.3 -0.2

11.3 -0.1

11.3 0.2

12.3 8.5

11.7 -5

11.8 1

103.7 0.3

104.6 0.9

106 1.3

107.6 1.5

109.3 1.6

111.4 1.9

113.4 1.8

115 1.4

116.6 1.4

118.5 1.7

101123

104224

108660

112958

117290

121722

126164

130413

134346

138644

2249 1.8

2294.5 2

2344.7 2.2

2396.1 2.2

2452.1 2.3

2512 2.4

2572 2.4

2629.4 2.2

2686.7 2.2

2744.6 2.2

1147.2 1.8

1165.7 1.6

1188 1.9

1214.8 2.3

1243.4 2.4

1272.5 2.3

1301.6 2.3

1330.3 2.2

1358.5 2.1

1386.4 2

8.1

7.8

7.2

6.6

6.1

5.7

5.4

5.4

5.3

5.3

12967 8504 4462

17526 12380 5147

22661 16678 5983

25962 18521 7441

27736 19122 8614

27759 19051 8708

27661 19025 8636

27556 19100 8457

26915 18852 8062

26607 18690 7917

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

99


O r l an do – K i s s i m m e e

Annual Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL

July 2012

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

144.1 5.3 77.3 66.8

151.7 5.3 80.8 70.9

159.9 5.4 84.7 75.2

168.7 5.5 89.2 79.5

178.1 5.6 93.9 84.2

187.9 5.5 98.9 89

198.2 5.5 104.3 93.9

208.9 5.4 109.9 99

220.6 5.6 116.2 104.4

233.1 5.6 122.8 110.3

105.3 3.5

108.8 3.3

112.5 3.4

116.5 3.5

120.7 3.6

124.9 3.5

129.4 3.5

133.7 3.4

138.4 3.5

143.4 3.6

51.4 37.6

53 38

54.7 38.5

56.5 39

58.5 39.6

60.5 40.2

62.5 40.8

64.6 41.4

66.9 42

69.3 42.7

60.9 3.1

62.9 3.2

64.9 3.2

67 3.2

69.2 3.3

71.4 3.3

73.8 3.3

76.2 3.3

78.8 3.4

81.3 3.2

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

100

1264.7 1.5

1281.2 1.3

1302.6 1.7

1327.4 1.9

1353.5 2

1380.8 2

1410.5 2.2

1439.4 2.1

1471.6 2.2

1506.8 2.4

40 -0.8

39.6 -0.9

39.2 -1

38.8 -1.1

38.4 -1

38 -1.1

37.6 -1

37.3 -0.9

37 -0.8

36.7 -0.8

1224.7 1.6

1241.6 1.4

1263.4 1.8

1288.6 2

1315.1 2.1

1342.8 2.1

1372.9 2.2

1402.1 2.1

1434.6 2.3

1470.1 2.5

77.9 2.4

80.1 2.8

82.8 3.3

85.7 3.5

88.4 3.2

90.8 2.7

93 2.4

95.4 2.6

98.5 3.3

101.9 3.4

226.2 0.8

228.4 1

230.9 1.1

233.5 1.1

236.7 1.3

239.7 1.3

242.7 1.3

245.1 1

247.6 1

250 0.9

49.6 134.6 40

50.3 135.2 40.8

51 136.1 41.7

51.7 137.2 42.5

52.5 138.8 43.1

53 140.7 43.8

53.5 142.3 44.5

53.9 143.8 45

54.4 145.5 45.4

54.9 147.1 45.8

29.9 1.3

30.1 0.7

30.4 1.2

30.9 1.7

31.6 2.1

32.4 2.4

33.2 2.7

34 2.3

34.8 2.3

35.6 2.3

72.2 1

72.9 1

73.8 1.2

74.9 1.4

76 1.6

77.4 1.8

78.8 1.8

80.2 1.8

81.7 1.8

83.1 1.8

257.9 4.1

264.8 2.7

274.4 3.6

285.6 4.1

296.1 3.7

307.1 3.7

319.7 4.1

332.3 3.9

348.3 4.8

366.5 5.2

158.9 1.1

160.3 0.9

162.2 1.1

164.5 1.5

167.3 1.7

170.4 1.9

173.8 2

176.9 1.8

179.9 1.7

183.1 1.7

215.7 -0.2

216.3 0.3

217.4 0.5

219.1 0.8

221.8 1.3

225.1 1.5

228.7 1.6

231.8 1.3

235.3 1.5

238.9 1.5

53.6 1.1

54.3 1.3

55.2 1.6

56.1 1.6

56.9 1.5

57.8 1.6

58.8 1.7

59.8 1.7

60.7 1.4

61.4 1.2

12 2.1

12.4 2.7

12.7 2.6

13 2.6

13.3 2.5

13.7 2.4

14 2.3

15.1 8.4

14.8 -2.4

15.1 2.3

120.4 1.6

122 1.4

123.7 1.3

125.3 1.3

126.9 1.3

128.5 1.2

130 1.2

131.5 1.1

133 1.1

134.5 1.1

143573

148705

154216

159906

165643

171543

177761

184258

191322

198643

2803.4 2.1

2862.9 2.1

2923 2.1

2983.8 2.1

3045.3 2.1

3107.4 2

3170.1 2

3233.2 2

3296.8 2

3360.9 1.9

1415 2.1

1444.1 2.1

1472.1 1.9

1502 2

1533.4 2.1

1565.9 2.1

1599 2.1

1632.8 2.1

1667.4 2.1

1702.4 2.1

5.2

5.1

5

5

4.9

4.8

4.7

4.7

4.6

4.6

27009 19324 7685

28202 20664 7538

29001 21297 7704

29592 21626 7965

29568 21333 8235

29371 20914 8457

29239 20751 8488

29388 21018 8370

29274 20990 8285

28737 20492 8244

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012


Orlando – Kissimmee

Annual Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL

July 2012

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

245.6 5.4 129.1 116.5

258.4 5.2 135.3 123.1

272 5.3 141.8 130.2

286.4 5.3 148.7 137.7

301.2 5.2 155.8 145.5

317 5.2 163.2 153.8

333.3 5.2 170.9 162.5

350.2 5 178.9 171.3

368.6 5.3 188 180.6

388.2 5.3 197.6 190.6

148.2 3.3

152.9 3.1

157.7 3.2

162.8 3.2

167.9 3.1

173.2 3.2

178.5 3.1

183.8 3

189.7 3.2

195.8 3.2

71.7 43.3

74 43.8

76.5 44.4

79.1 45

81.7 45.5

84.4 46.1

87.2 46.7

90 47.3

93.1 47.9

96.3 48.6

83.9 3.2

86.5 3.2

89.2 3.1

92 3.1

94.9 3.1

97.8 3.1

100.8 3.1

103.9 3

107.4 3.4

110.9 3.3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

1535.8 1.9

1560.5 1.6

1585.7 1.6

1612 1.7

1638 1.6

1664.5 1.6

1691.5 1.6

1718.9 1.6

1747.7 1.7

1778.5 1.8

36.4 -0.9

36.1 -0.8

35.8 -0.8

35.5 -0.7

35.3 -0.7

35.1 -0.6

35 -0.3

34.9 -0.3

34.8 -0.3

34.6 -0.3

1499.4 2

1524.4 1.7

1549.9 1.7

1576.5 1.7

1602.7 1.7

1629.4 1.7

1656.5 1.7

1684 1.7

1712.9 1.7

1743.8 1.8

105 3.1

107.5 2.4

110.1 2.4

112.9 2.6

115.9 2.6

118.8 2.5

121.7 2.4

123.9 1.8

126.3 2

129.2 2.3

252.1 0.9

253.8 0.6

255.4 0.6

257.1 0.7

258.8 0.7

260.7 0.7

262.7 0.8

264.6 0.7

266.9 0.8

269.4 0.9

55.2 148.6 46.1

55.4 149.9 46.2

55.6 151.2 46.2

55.9 152.6 46.2

56.1 154 46

56.2 155.7 46

56.4 157.4 45.9

56.8 159 45.8

57.4 160.5 45.7

58.3 161.9 45.8

36.4 2.3

37.3 2.4

38.3 2.6

39.3 2.6

40.3 2.6

41.3 2.6

42.5 2.7

43.6 2.6

44.7 2.6

45.9 2.6

84.4 1.6

85.6 1.4

86.9 1.5

88.2 1.5

89.4 1.4

90.6 1.3

91.8 1.3

92.6 0.8

93 0.5

93.4 0.4

380 3.7

391.4 3

402.8 2.9

414.4 2.9

425.9 2.8

437.3 2.7

449.1 2.7

462.1 2.9

477.1 3.2

493 3.3

185.7 1.4

187.9 1.2

190.1 1.2

192.4 1.3

194.8 1.2

197.3 1.3

199.7 1.2

202.3 1.3

205 1.3

207.7 1.3

242.2 1.4

245 1.1

248.1 1.3

251.1 1.2

254.1 1.2

257.3 1.3

260.6 1.3

263.5 1.1

266.7 1.2

269.6 1.1

62.1 1.2

62.8 1.1

63.5 1.1

64.3 1.2

65 1.1

65.6 1

66.3 1

66.8 0.9

67.4 0.8

67.8 0.7

15.4 2.2

15.8 2.2

16.1 2.2

16.5 2.2

16.8 2.1

17.2 2

17.5 1.9

18.5 5.5

18.2 -1.6

18.6 2.2

135.9 1

137.4 1

138.8 1

140.2 1

141.7 1

143.1 1

144.6 1

146.1 1

147.6 1.1

149.1 1

205642

212590

219856

227545

235617

243875

252533

261566

271465

281837

3425.3 1.9

3490.3 1.9

3555.6 1.9

3621.5 1.9

3687.9 1.8

3754.9 1.8

3822.5 1.8

3890.8 1.8

3959.7 1.8

4029.4 1.8

1737.7 2.1

1773.4 2.1

1809.5 2

1845.8 2

1882.4 2

1919.3 2

1957 2

1994 1.9

2031.1 1.9

2068.2 1.8

4.5

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

28718 20561 8157

29082 21020 8062

29526 21526 8000

29799 21885 7915

29589 21818 7771

29384 21687 7697

29274 21594 7679

29125 21468 7657

29230 21627 7603

29247 21662 7585

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

101


Palm Bay – M e lb o u r n e – Titu svi lle

Profiles

Outlook Summaries

The Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville MSA is comprised of Brevard County only. Typically known as “Florida’s Space Coast”, this area is home to the Kennedy Space Center. Located in the central part of Florida’s east coast, the region is home to Cape Canaveral Air Force Base, Patrick Air Force Base and government contractors such as Harris Corporation. Like much of Florida, this area is growing fast; Port Canaveral is now a leading cruise ship port.

The Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to see moderate growth in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to average 4.6 percent each year. Per capita income levels should average 35.8. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.0 percent, the second highest of the studied MSAs. Average annual wage levels should be at 52.1, also the second highest of the studied MSAs. Population growth is expected to be an average of 1.1 percent, and the Gross Metro Product level is expected to be 17,471.28 (Mill). Employment growth is forecasted to average 1.8 percent each year. The metro will see an average unemployment rate of 9.0 percent. Construction and Mining is expected to be the fastest growing sector in the area, averaging 5.7 percent growth annually. The Professional and Business Services sector will see the second highest annual growth rate at 2.8 percent, followed closely by the Information sector at 2.7 percent. Only the Federal Government sector will experience negative growth, at an average of -3.3 percent annually.

Quick Facts:

• Population estimate of 543,573 as of July 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau). • A civilian labor force of 267,597 in December of 2011 (Florida Regional Economic Database). • An unemployment rate of 11.1% not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 29,662 unemployed people (Florida Regional Economic Database).

Top Area Employers:

• Brevard County School Board- 9,140 • Health First Employees - 6,350

• Harris Corporation Employees - 6,130

• United Space Alliance, LLC Employees – 3,830 • Brevard County Board of County Comm. – 2,390 • Department of Defense - 2260

• Health Management Associates – 2,220 • NASA – 2,210

• Brevard Community College – 1,580

• Rockwell Collins, Inc. Employees - 1,500 • DRS INC – 1,440

• Northrup Grumman – 1,400

• Florida Institute of Technology – 1,190 Source: Brevard Economic Development Council, 2011

Metro News Summaries Retinkered Runaway grabs rave reviews

• Negotiations with new artists are already afoot for next year’s Runaway Country music festival, which may expand its footprint in Wickham Park, executive producer Gary McCann said.

• This year’s festival attracted over 30,000 country music fans to see headlining bands such as Alan Jackson, Big & Rich, Kellie Pickler, Brantley Gilbert, Chris Young and Lo Cash Cowboys. • Greg Minor, Brevard County south area parks director, said the Wickham Park rental fee increased from $27,500 last year to $32,500 this year. He said he was “very satisfied” with the event’s logistics, and the park will reopen to the public the following Tuesday morning.

Source: Florida Today, May 7, 2012

102

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012


P a l m Ba y – M e l b o u r n e – T i t u s v i l l e

Port steers toward speeding up work to upgrade channel

• Members of the Canaveral Port Authority unanimously approved funding for key environmental testing and engineering work that could help move the project’s timeline up by a decade.

• Authority Chief Executive Officer Stan Payne said the unanimous decision to commit more than $1.4 million for preliminary work could allow the main deepening and widening project to begin as early as July 2013 with an October 2014 completion. • The deepening and widening work itself will cost $30 million to $40 million, which port officials hope will be paid for with a combination of federal, state and port dollars.

• The project will need final approval from a special Army Corps of Engineers Civil Works Review Board.

Source: Florida Today, April 18, 2012

Adam Lowenstein: An investment in Brevard, wrapped in optimism

• DeBartolo Development and another Tampa outfit, Elco Landmark Residential, recently bought the former Sunbreeze Apartments on Woodwind Trail, off Lake Washington Road.

• The 208-unit complex — “in the growing community of Melbourne,” according to the release announcing the acquisition — has been renamed Landmark at Waverly Place, and will receive more than $1 million in improvements during the next 18 months.

• The complex, built in 1988, is already leased at 96 percent, so the new owners don’t necessarily have much to gain by touting Brevard. Yet they did, voicing confidence in the region despite its economic travails of the last few years.

United Space Alliance plans to lay off of 148 at KSC

• United Space Alliance plans to lay off 148 workers at Kennedy Space Center in September, according to a notice filed last week with the state Department of Economic Opportunity. • The notice said employees working in administrative and support, waste management and remediation services would be affected. • The last shuttle mission ended July 21, 2011. About 8,000 space industry workers have lost their jobs as the 30-year-old shuttle program came to an end. The latest layoff will take place on Sept. 28

Source: Florida Today, July 31, 2012

Brevard in hunt for new energy jobs

• The U.S. Department of Energy plans to establish a Battery and Electrochemical Storage Technology Hub somewhere in the United States.

• The University of Central Florida in Orlando and the Florida Solar Energy Center in Cocoa, with help from the Economic Development Commission of Florida’s Space Coast and others, want to bring it to an unused building in Palm Bay.

• The project, which would start with $20 million in federal funding for the first year and could receive another $100 million over the ensuing four years, is meant to create a centralized location to research and develop new technologies for storing energy.

Source: Florida Today, July 31, 2012

Source: Florida Today, May 5, 2012

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

103


Palm Bay – M e lb o u r n e – Titu svi lle Palm Bay - Melbourne - Titusville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manuf acturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Inf ormation Financial Activities Prof essional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

Florida & Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Unemployment Rate (percent)

12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 FL Unemployment Rate Palm Bay Unemployment Rate

1

300.0 280.0 260.0 240.0 220.0 200.0 180.0 160.0

104

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 Palm Bay Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

2

2.5

3

Palm Bay Real Gross Metro Product 45000.0 40000.0 35000.0 30000.0 25000.0 20000.0 15000.0 10000.0 5000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 Real Gross Metro Product

Palm Bay Real Personal Income

Palm Bay Payroll Employment (Thousands)

1.5

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0%

(percent change year ago)

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 Real Personal Income


P a l m Ba y – M e l b o u r n e – T i t u s v i l l e

Quarterly Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

July 2012 Forecast

2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

21.7 2.8 9.8 11.9

22 4.1 10 12

22.2 5.1 10.1 12.2

22.4 4.6 10.2 12.2

22.7 4.5 10.3 12.4

22.9 4.1 10.4 12.5

23.1 4 10.5 12.6

23.5 4.7 10.7 12.8

23.7 4.8 10.8 12.9

24 5 10.9 13.1

24.3 5.2 11.1 13.2

24.7 5.1 11.2 13.5

25.1 5.5 11.4 13.7

25.4 5.7 11.5 13.9

25.8 6 11.7 14.1

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

18.8 1.3

19 3.1

19.2 4.1

19.3 4

19.5 3.7

19.6 3

19.7 2.6

19.9 3.1

20 2.8

20.2 2.9

20.3 3.1

20.6 3.1

20.8 3.6

21 3.9

21.2 4.2

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

39.9 34.5

40.3 34.9

40.7 35.2

41 35.3

41.3 35.5

41.6 35.6

41.9 35.7

42.4 36

42.7 36

43 36.1

43.4 36.3

43.9 36.5

44.3 36.7

44.7 36.9

45.2 37.1

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

49.7 3.4

50.1 2.7

50.5 2.7

50.8 2.8

51.1 2.8

51.4 2.7

51.8 2.6

52.2 2.7

52.6 2.9

53 3

53.4 3.1

53.8 3

54.2 3.1

54.6 3.1

55 3.1

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

194.5 -0.1

195.6 1.3

196.6 2.1

197.7 1.9

198.7 2.2

199.6 2.1

200.4 1.9

201.4 1.9

202.4 1.8

203.4 1.9

204.6 2.1

205.7 2.1

206.9 2.3

208.2 2.4

209.5 2.4

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

20.4 -0.2

20.6 0.9

20.8 1.3

21 3

21.2 3.7

21.3 3.5

21.5 3.5

21.7 3.4

21.8 2.7

21.9 2.5

22 2.4

22.1 1.9

22.2 1.8

22.2 1.5

22.3 1.2

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

174.1 -0.1

175 1.4

175.9 2.2

176.8 1.8

177.5 2

178.2 1.9

179 1.7

179.8 1.7

180.6 1.7

181.5 1.8

182.6 2

183.6 2.1

184.8 2.3

186 2.5

187.3 2.6

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

7.7 -5.4

7.7 -3.5

7.7 -1.7

7.8 0.8

7.9 2.7

8 4.3

8.2 6.4

8.4 8.1

8.6 9.5

8.9 10.7

9.2 12

9.5 12.8

9.8 13.6

10.1 14.3

10.4 13.9

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

35.2 3.5

35.4 2

35.6 3.2

35.7 1.6

35.9 1.8

36 1.8

36.2 1.6

36.2 1.4

36.3 1.2

36.4 1.1

36.6 1.2

36.7 1.3

36.9 1.6

37.1 1.8

37.3 2

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

5.4 25.7 4.1

5.4 25.8 4.1

5.5 25.9 4.2

5.5 25.9 4.2

5.5 25.9 4.2

5.6 26 4.3

5.6 26 4.3

5.7 25.9 4.4

5.7 25.8 4.4

5.7 25.8 4.4

5.8 25.9 4.4

5.9 25.9 4.5

5.9 25.9 4.5

6 26.1 4.6

6.1 26.2 4.6

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.3 3.8

2.3 2.6

2.3 1.8

2.4 1.7

2.4 3.6

2.4 4.1

2.4 3.7

2.4 3.2

2.4 1.5

2.4 0.7

2.5 0.9

2.5 1.8

2.5 2.7

2.5 3.3

2.5 3.4

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.4 0.8

7.5 2

7.5 3.1

7.6 2.3

7.6 1.9

7.6 1.7

7.6 1.3

7.6 0.5

7.6 0.3

7.6 0.2

7.6 0

7.6 0

7.6 0.2

7.6 0.3

7.7 0.4

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

29.5 -7.2

29.7 -0.5

30.1 3.4

30.6 4.3

31 5

31.2 5

31.4 4.4

31.7 3.6

32.2 3.9

32.7 4.8

33.2 5.5

33.6 6

34.1 6.1

34.7 6

35.2 6

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

33.5 1.9

33.8 2.9

33.9 2.5

34 1.8

34.1 1.7

34.2 1.3

34.3 1.1

34.5 1.7

34.7 1.8

34.8 1.7

35 2

35.1 1.5

35.2 1.5

35.4 1.6

35.5 1.5

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

22.4 4.2

22.5 4.3

22.7 3.1

22.7 2.6

22.8 2

22.8 1.3

22.9 0.9

22.9 0.6

22.8 0

22.8 -0.3

22.7 -0.7

22.7 -0.8

22.6 -0.8

22.6 -0.6

22.6 -0.5

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

7.9 1.3

7.9 1.2

8 1.8

8 1.7

8 1.4

8 1.3

8 1.2

8.1 1

8.1 1

8.1 0.9

8.1 0.5

8.1 0.2

8.1 0.1

8.1 0

8.1 0.2

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

6.1 -5

6 -5.1

6 -4.7

5.9 -3.9

5.9 -2.9

5.8 -3.1

5.8 -3.2

5.8 -3.1

5.7 -3

5.7 -2.9

5.6 -2.8

5.6 -2.5

5.6 -2.2

5.6 -1.9

5.6 -1.7

22.1 -0.2

22.1 1.1

22.1 0.5

22.1 -0.1

22.1 -0.2

22.1 0

22.1 0.2

22.1 0.3

22.2 0.4

22.2 0.4

22.2 0.5

22.3 0.7

22.3 0.7

22.4 0.9

22.4 0.9

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil)

16604 16730.6 16864.9 16979.9 17093.3 17195.1 17312.7 17445.2 17587.9 17754.9 17940.3 18108.8

18293 18478.4 18660.1

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

544.2 0.1

545.2 0.3

546.4 0.5

547.7 0.7

549.1 0.9

550.6 1

552.3 1.1

554.1 1.2

556.1 1.3

558.3 1.4

560.7 1.5

563.3 1.7

565.9 1.8

568.4 1.8

570.8 1.8

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

266.9 -0.6

267.5 0

268 0.2

268.3 0.6

269.2 0.9

270 0.9

270.7 1

271.1 1

271.5 0.9

272.1 0.8

272.7 0.7

273.2 0.8

273.9 0.9

274.8 1

275.2 0.9

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

9.1

9.1

9

9.1

9.1

9.2

9.2

9.2

9.2

9.1

8.9

8.8

8.6

8.5

8.3

1063 992 72

1199 1120 79

1376 1244 132

1625 1405 220

1942 1667 274

2285 1904 382

2727 2184 543

3062 2412 651

3396 2686 710

3744 2980 764

4084 3256 828

4409 3517 892

4729 3794 935

4994 4013 981

5175 4147 1028

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

105


Palm Bay – M e lb o u r n e – Titu svi lle

Annual Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

July 2012

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

15.1 5.7 7.5 7.5

16.3 8.1 8.2 8.1

17.6 7.8 8.9 8.7

18.9 7.5 9.4 9.5

19.7 4.5 9.5 10.2

20.4 3.5 9.5 11

19.7 -3.5 9.2 10.5

20.3 2.8 9.3 11

21.1 3.9 9.5 11.5

21.8 3.7 9.9 11.9

15.9 3.6

16.8 5.4

17.6 4.7

18.4 4.6

18.7 1.8

18.8 0.2

18.1 -3.7

18.2 1

18.5 1.4

18.9 2.2

29.8 31.4

31.4 32.3

33.2 33.1

35.3 34.3

36.6 34.7

37.7 34.6

36.4 33.3

37.3 33.6

38.7 34

40.1 34.7

37.7 4.9

39.8 5.5

41.6 4.5

42.8 2.9

43.8 2.5

45.1 2.9

46.1 2.2

47 2

48.4 3

49.9 3.1

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

106

196.8 1.9

204 3.6

210.9 3.4

216.3 2.5

213.7 -1.2

207.3 -3

196.6 -5.1

195 -0.8

193.7 -0.6

195.2 0.8

22.8 -0.5

23.6 3.8

23.9 1.2

24.6 2.7

24.1 -1.8

23.7 -1.6

21.8 -8

20.5 -5.9

20.5 -0.5

20.5 0.4

174 2.2

180.3 3.6

187 3.7

191.7 2.5

189.6 -1.1

183.5 -3.2

174.8 -4.8

174.4 -0.2

173.2 -0.7

174.6 0.8

13 2.3

14.8 13.6

17.2 16.2

18.1 5

15.4 -15

13 -15.4

9.9 -23.8

8.7 -12.5

8.1 -7

7.7 -4.6

34.2 -1.6

35.5 3.8

37.1 4.5

37.4 1

36.9 -1.5

35.4 -3.8

33 -6.9

32.7 -0.9

34.1 4.3

35.3 3.6

4.6 26.3 3.3

4.7 27.2 3.6

5.2 28 3.8

5.5 28.3 3.6

5.6 28 3.3

5.5 26.8 3.1

5.2 24.9 2.9

5 24.7 3

5.2 25.1 3.8

5.4 25.8 4.1

2.4 0

2.4 -1

2.5 7

2.5 0.1

2.5 -3

2.5 2.7

2.6 4.6

2.4 -8.8

2.3 -6

2.3 3.2

7.3 0.7

7.8 5.8

8.4 7.8

8.6 2.4

8.6 0.3

8.3 -3.4

7.9 -4.9

7.6 -3.5

7.3 -3.8

7.5 1.5

33.7 3.1

34.5 2.3

36 4.3

37.3 3.6

36.8 -1.1

34.5 -6.3

32.3 -6.4

32.5 0.7

30.8 -5.3

29.7 -3.8

26.7 5.6

26.8 0.4

27.3 1.8

28.2 3.1

29.3 4

30.6 4.7

31.2 1.8

32.3 3.4

32.8 1.8

33.7 2.5

20.5 1.7

21.4 4.3

22.1 3.3

22.8 3.3

23.1 1.4

22.2 -4.1

21.3 -4

21.2 -0.4

21.5 1.6

22.4 4.2

8.2 8.4

8.4 1.6

8.1 -2.8

8.1 -0.8

8 -1.1

7.9 -1.6

7.4 -5.7

7.6 2.8

7.8 2.4

7.9 1.3

5.7 1.2

6 4

6.1 1.8

6.2 1.7

6.2 0.5

6.2 0

6.3 1.3

6.7 7.4

6.4 -5.4

6.1 -4.7

22.1 2.6

22.9 3.3

22.2 -2.8

22.6 1.7

22.8 1

22.8 0

22.8 -0.1

22.6 -0.8

22.1 -2.5

22.1 0.1

14553.4

15372.5

16312.2

16923.2

16906.3

16491.6

16125.8

16362.9

16416.9

16672.7

506.8 2.1

519.9 2.6

530.2 2

535.7 1

539.9 0.8

542.2 0.4

542.4 0.1

543.2 0.1

543.6 0.1

544.9 0.2

242 1.6

247.6 2.3

258.3 4.3

262.5 1.6

266.8 1.6

269 0.8

266.3 -1

266.9 0.2

267.6 0.3

267.3 -0.1

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

5.2

4.4

3.6

3.2

4.2

6.5

10.2

11.1

11.1

9.2

6248 5718 530

8362 6458 1904

8494 7257 1237

5323 4389 934

2865 2219 646

1668 1284 385

975 869 105

1082 991 90

995 871 124

1136 1049 87


P a l m Ba y – M e l b o u r n e – T i t u s v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

July 2012

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

22.8 4.3 10.4 12.4

23.9 4.9 10.9 13

25.2 5.6 11.5 13.8

26.8 6.3 12.1 14.7

28.4 5.8 12.7 15.7

30 5.5 13.3 16.7

31.5 5.2 13.9 17.6

33.1 4.9 14.5 18.6

34.7 4.8 15.1 19.5

36.4 5.1 15.8 20.6

19.5 3.3

20.1 3

20.9 3.7

21.8 4.6

22.8 4.3

23.7 4

24.6 3.8

25.4 3.4

26.2 3.1

27.1 3.4

41.4 35.5

42.9 36.1

44.5 36.8

46.5 37.9

48.5 38.9

50.4 39.8

52.2 40.6

53.8 41.3

55.4 41.9

57.3 42.6

51.3 2.7

52.8 2.9

54.4 3.1

56.1 3.1

57.9 3.2

59.9 3.3

61.9 3.4

63.9 3.3

66.1 3.4

68.3 3.4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

199.1 2

203 1.9

207.6 2.3

212.4 2.3

216.3 1.8

219.2 1.3

221.6 1.1

224 1.1

226.2 1

229.1 1.2

21.2 3.5

21.8 2.7

22.2 1.6

22.3 0.4

22.2 -0.3

22.1 -0.4

22 -0.5

21.9 -0.5

21.8 -0.4

21.8 -0.2

177.9 1.9

181.1 1.8

185.4 2.4

190.1 2.5

194.1 2.1

197.1 1.6

199.5 1.2

202.1 1.3

204.4 1.2

207.3 1.4

7.9 3.5

8.8 10.1

9.9 13.7

11.1 11.5

11.9 7

12.3 3.8

12.5 1.6

12.6 0.9

12.8 1.1

12.9 1

35.9 1.7

36.4 1.2

37 1.7

37.8 2.2

38.4 1.6

38.8 0.9

38.9 0.3

38.9 0.1

39 0.1

39.1 0.3

5.6 25.9 4.3

5.7 25.8 4.4

6 26 4.6

6.2 26.4 4.7

6.5 26.6 4.9

6.7 26.7 5

6.8 26.7 5.1

6.9 26.6 5.1

7 26.5 5.1

7.1 26.5 5.1

2.4 3.3

2.4 1.6

2.5 2.8

2.6 2.8

2.6 2.7

2.7 2.2

2.8 1.8

2.8 1.5

2.9 1.9

2.9 2.2

7.6 1.8

7.6 0.2

7.6 0.2

7.7 0.3

7.7 1

7.8 1

7.9 0.9

7.9 0.7

8 0.4

8 0.9

31.1 4.7

32.4 4.4

34.4 6

36.1 4.9

37.7 4.4

39 3.6

40.3 3.2

41.6 3.4

43.5 4.5

45.6 4.7

34.1 1.4

34.7 1.8

35.3 1.5

36.1 2.3

36.9 2.1

37.5 1.8

38.2 1.7

38.8 1.6

39.1 0.8

39.4 0.7

22.8 1.7

22.8 -0.1

22.6 -0.7

22.5 -0.5

22.3 -0.8

22.2 -0.9

22 -0.8

21.7 -1.1

21.6 -0.8

21.4 -0.9

8 1.4

8.1 0.8

8.1 0.1

8.1 0.5

8.2 0.5

8.2 0.1

8.2 0

8.2 0

8.2 -0.1

8.2 -0.1

5.9 -3.3

5.7 -2.9

5.6 -2.1

5.5 -1.3

5.5 -0.9

5.4 -0.8

5.4 -0.4

5.7 5.4

5.5 -3.5

5.5 0.3

22.1 0

22.2 0.4

22.3 0.8

22.6 1.1

22.9 1.2

23.2 1.4

23.5 1.3

23.7 1

24 1

24.3 1.4

17145.2

17682.1

18385.1

19066.4

19686.6

20270.9

20853.8

21451.3

21973.6

22562.7

549.9 0.9

557.3 1.4

567.1 1.8

576.7 1.7

585.6 1.6

594.7 1.5

604.5 1.7

615.3 1.8

625.9 1.7

636.5 1.7

269.6 0.9

271.9 0.8

274.3 0.9

276.8 0.9

280 1.2

283.6 1.3

287.2 1.3

290.8 1.2

293.7 1

296.7 1

9.1

9.1

8.5

7.8

7.3

7.1

6.8

6.7

6.6

6.6

2145 1790 355

3572 2833 738

4827 3868 959

5547 4357 1190

5922 4562 1361

5935 4571 1364

5936 4590 1346

5927 4608 1319

5807 4533 1274

5740 4479 1262

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

107


Palm Bay – M e lb o u r n e – Titu svi lle

Annual Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

July 2012

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

38.4 5.3 16.6 21.8

40.4 5.2 17.3 23.1

42.5 5.2 18.1 24.4

44.7 5.2 19 25.7

47.1 5.3 19.9 27.1

49.5 5.2 21 28.5

52 5.1 22.1 30

54.7 5.1 23.2 31.5

57.5 5.2 24.5 33.1

60.6 5.4 25.8 34.8

28 3.4

28.9 3.3

29.9 3.2

30.9 3.3

31.9 3.4

32.9 3.2

33.9 3.2

35 3.1

36.1 3.1

37.3 3.3

59.3 43.3

61.3 44

63.5 44.7

65.7 45.4

68.2 46.2

70.6 46.9

73.1 47.7

75.7 48.5

78.4 49.2

81.4 50.1

70.7 3.5

73.2 3.5

75.7 3.5

78.5 3.6

81.3 3.6

84.2 3.6

87.3 3.7

90.5 3.6

93.9 3.8

97.3 3.7

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

108

231.4 1

233.3 0.8

235.9 1.1

239.1 1.4

242.5 1.4

246.1 1.5

250 1.6

253.9 1.6

258 1.6

262.7 1.8

21.6 -0.8

21.4 -0.9

21.2 -1.1

20.9 -1.1

20.7 -1.1

20.5 -1.1

20.3 -1

20.1 -0.9

20 -0.7

19.8 -0.8

209.8 1.2

211.9 1

214.7 1.3

218.2 1.6

221.8 1.7

225.6 1.7

229.7 1.8

233.8 1.8

238 1.8

242.9 2

13.1 1.5

13.3 1.9

13.7 2.4

14.1 3

14.4 2.5

14.7 1.9

14.9 1.7

15.2 1.8

15.6 2.6

16 2.6

39.3 0.5

39.5 0.6

39.8 0.8

40.2 0.9

40.7 1.2

41.1 1.1

41.6 1.1

41.9 0.8

42.3 0.9

42.6 0.8

7.2 26.5 5.2

7.3 26.6 5.3

7.4 26.7 5.4

7.5 26.8 5.5

7.7 27.1 5.5

7.8 27.4 5.6

7.8 27.7 5.7

7.9 27.9 5.7

8 28.1 5.7

8.1 28.4 5.8

2.9 1.1

3 0.6

3 1

3 1.5

3.1 2

3.2 2.3

3.2 2.5

3.3 2.1

3.4 2.2

3.5 2.2

8.1 0.9

8.2 0.9

8.3 1.1

8.4 1.2

8.5 1.4

8.6 1.6

8.8 1.7

8.9 1.6

9 1.6

9.2 1.6

47.1 3.3

48 1.9

49.4 2.8

51 3.4

52.6 3

54.2 3.1

56.1 3.5

57.9 3.3

60.3 4.1

63 4.6

39.7 0.7

39.9 0.6

40.2 0.8

40.7 1.1

41.2 1.3

41.8 1.5

42.5 1.6

43.1 1.4

43.7 1.3

44.3 1.3

21.2 -0.7

21.2 -0.2

21.2 0

21.2 0.4

21.4 0.8

21.6 1

21.8 1.1

22 0.8

22.2 1

22.5 1

8.2 0.4

8.3 0.6

8.3 0.8

8.4 0.8

8.4 0.7

8.5 0.8

8.6 0.9

8.7 0.9

8.7 0.6

8.8 0.4

5.6 1.1

5.7 1.5

5.7 1.5

5.8 1.3

5.9 1.3

6 1.2

6 1.1

6.5 7.2

6.2 -3.6

6.3 1.1

24.6 1.3

24.9 1.1

25.2 1.1

25.4 1

25.7 1

25.9 0.9

26.1 0.9

26.4 0.8

26.6 0.8

26.8 0.8

23236.8

23929.1

24657.6

25401.9

26144.5

26898.4

27689.3

28549.6

29443.2

30369.6

647.4 1.7

658.2 1.7

668.9 1.6

679.7 1.6

690.4 1.6

701 1.5

711.5 1.5

722.2 1.5

733.6 1.6

744.9 1.5

300.2 1.2

303.7 1.2

307.1 1.1

310.7 1.2

314.5 1.2

318.3 1.2

322.3 1.2

326.2 1.2

330.3 1.2

334.3 1.2

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

6.5

6.4

6.3

6.2

6.1

6

5.9

5.8

5.7

5.7

5839 4613 1226

6134 4929 1205

6289 5057 1232

6400 5127 1273

6375 5065 1310

6312 4972 1341

6274 4935 1340

6311 4997 1314

6287 4989 1298

6160 4872 1288


P a l m Ba y – M e l b o u r n e – T i t u s v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

July 2012

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

63.7 5.1 27.1 36.6

66.8 4.9 28.3 38.5

70.1 4.9 29.6 40.5

73.6 5 30.9 42.7

77.2 4.9 32.3 44.9

81 5 33.8 47.2

84.9 4.9 35.3 49.7

89 4.8 36.9 52.1

93.3 4.8 38.6 54.7

97.9 4.9 40.4 57.5

38.4 3

39.5 2.9

40.7 2.9

41.8 2.9

43 2.8

44.3 2.9

45.5 2.8

46.7 2.7

48 2.7

49.4 2.8

84.2 50.8

87.1 51.5

90.2 52.3

93.4 53.1

96.6 53.9

100.1 54.7

103.7 55.5

107.3 56.3

111.1 57.2

115.1 58.1

100.8 3.5

104.3 3.5

107.8 3.4

111.5 3.4

115.3 3.4

119.2 3.4

123.2 3.4

127.3 3.3

131.6 3.4

136 3.3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

266.2 1.4

269 1

271.8 1

274.8 1.1

277.8 1.1

280.8 1.1

283.8 1.1

287.2 1.2

290.6 1.2

294.4 1.3

19.6 -0.9

19.5 -0.7

19.4 -0.7

19.2 -0.6

19.1 -0.6

19 -0.5

19 -0.2

18.9 -0.3

18.9 -0.2

18.8 -0.3

246.6 1.5

249.5 1.2

252.5 1.2

255.6 1.2

258.6 1.2

261.8 1.2

264.9 1.2

268.3 1.3

271.7 1.3

275.6 1.4

16.4 2.3

16.7 1.6

16.9 1.6

17.2 1.8

17.5 1.8

17.8 1.7

18.1 1.6

18.3 0.9

18.5 1.1

18.8 1.4

42.9 0.7

43.1 0.5

43.4 0.5

43.6 0.6

43.9 0.6

44.2 0.7

44.5 0.7

44.8 0.7

45.1 0.8

45.5 0.8

8.2 28.6 5.8

8.2 28.8 5.8

8.2 28.9 5.8

8.3 29.1 5.7

8.3 29.4 5.7

8.4 29.6 5.7

8.4 29.9 5.7

8.5 30.1 5.6

8.6 30.4 5.6

8.8 30.6 5.6

3.5 2.2

3.6 2.2

3.7 2.4

3.8 2.5

3.9 2.4

4 2.4

4.1 2.5

4.2 2.4

4.3 2.5

4.4 2.5

9.3 1.4

9.4 1.2

9.6 1.3

9.7 1.4

9.8 1.2

9.9 1.2

10 1.1

10.1 0.6

10.1 0.3

10.1 0.2

64.9 3

66.4 2.3

67.9 2.2

69.3 2.2

70.8 2.1

72.3 2.1

73.8 2.1

75.6 2.4

77.7 2.8

80 2.9

44.7 1

45.1 0.8

45.4 0.7

45.8 0.8

46.1 0.8

46.5 0.9

46.9 0.8

47.3 0.9

47.8 1

48.3 1

22.6 0.8

22.8 0.6

22.9 0.7

23.1 0.7

23.3 0.7

23.4 0.7

23.6 0.7

23.7 0.5

23.9 0.7

24 0.6

8.8 0.4

8.8 0.3

8.9 0.3

8.9 0.4

8.9 0.2

8.9 0.2

8.9 0.2

9 0.1

9 0

9 -0.1

6.4 1

6.4 1

6.5 1.1

6.6 1.1

6.6 1

6.7 0.9

6.7 0.8

7 4.5

6.9 -2.7

6.9 1.1

27 0.7

27.2 0.7

27.4 0.7

27.6 0.7

27.8 0.7

28 0.7

28.2 0.7

28.3 0.6

28.5 0.6

28.7 0.6

31246.1

32129.2

33052.6

34026.4

35043.4

36077.4

37168.9

38351.1

39615.6

40954.1

756 1.5

766.9 1.4

777.6 1.4

788.2 1.4

798.6 1.3

809 1.3

819.3 1.3

829.6 1.3

839.8 1.2

850.2 1.2

338.2 1.2

342.2 1.2

346.1 1.1

349.9 1.1

353.7 1.1

357.5 1.1

361.4 1.1

365 1

368.6 1

372.2 1

5.6

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.4

6153 4883 1270

6234 4985 1248

6329 5098 1231

6388 5174 1214

6332 5143 1188

6270 5097 1173

6225 5060 1165

6166 5011 1155

6162 5022 1140

6136 5005 1132

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

109


P e n saco l a – F e r ry Pa ss – B r e nt

Profiles The Pensacola–Ferry Pass–Brent MSA is comprised of Escambia County and Santa Rosa County. Located in the northwest corner of Florida bordering Alabama, the region is home to the Pensacola Naval Air Station, Blue Angels, and the National Museum of Naval Aviation. This area has been referred to as the “Cradle of Naval Aviation.” QUICK FACTS:

• Metro population estimate of 453,218 as of July 1, 2011. (U.S. Census Bureau). • Escambia County population estimate of 299,114 as of July 1, 2011. (U.S. Census Bureau). • Santa Rosa County population estimate of 151,372 as of July 1, 2011. (U.S. Census Bureau).

• A civilian labor force of 206,530 as of April 2012. (Florida Research and Economic Information Database Application).

• An unemployment rate of 7.9% as of April 2012. This amounts to 16,239 unemployed people throughout the entire region. (Florida Research and Economic Information Database Application).

TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• Local Government – 13,857 employees

• Federal Government – 7,162 employees

• Escambia County School District – 5,376 employees • State Government – 5,253 employees

• Sacred Heart Health System – 5,000 employees • Baptist Health Care – 3,163 employees

• Santa Rosa County School District – 2,600 employees • Lakeview Center – 2,000 employees

• Ascend Performance Materials – 1,400 employees • Gulf Power Company – 1,365 employees

Sources: Escambia County School District, Pensacola Chamber of Commerce 110

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

Outlook Summaries The Pensacola–Ferry Pass–Brent Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to see low levels of growth in the economic indicators, relative to the twelve other areas studied. Personal income growth is expected to average 3.9 percent each year. The per capita income level is expected to be 32.6. The average annual wage growth rate should be at 2.6 percent. The average annual wage level is expected to be 43.7. Population growth will be at a rate of 1.2 percent. The Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 13,291.83 (Mill). Employment growth is expected to average 0.7 percent each year, the second lowest of the studied MSAs. The unemployment rate will average 7.8 percent. Construction and Mining will be the fastest growing sector in Pensacola, with 5.6 percent average annual growth. The Professional and Business Services sector follows with a growth rate of 2.9 percent. Other Services, the Financial sector, the State and Local Government and Federal Government sectors are all expected to decrease with an average annual growth rate of -0.1 percent, -0.2 percent, -0.5 percent, and -3.3 percent respectively.

Metro News Summaries UWF pushes heritage tourism project to add $1 billion to local economy

• Matt Altier, the University of West Florida’s vice president for administration services and CEO of the new nonprofit business arm, Business Enterprises, Inc., is pushing for a $50 million plan to expand cultural tourism in downtown Pensacola.

• Altier’s plan includes cobblestone or brick roads in the Historic District, new hotels and bed & breakfasts, a trolley system, and a ferry service. He predicts that this will attract one million tourists annually, create 10,000 jobs, and add $1 billion to the local economy. • The vice president assures local businesses that the university’s projects will not take away from their profits, but add to them.


P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t

• The project could potentially use funds from the RESTORE Act, which would provide billions of dollars to areas along the Gulf affected by the BP oil spill, but the bill is currently held up in Congress.

Source: Pensacola News-Journal, June 10, 2012

Groundbreaking begins Pensacola’s first natural gas station

• On May 31st, Pensacola Mayor Ashton Hayward, along with Energy Services of Pensacola (ESP) and Emerald Coast Utilities Authority (ECUA), broke ground on ESP’s first compressed natural gas fueling station. • Pensacola and ECUA currently have a partnership to transition their fleets to using compressed natural gas, which will cost less for vehicles to fuel and maintain. • This is the first of at least three fueling stations to be constructed by ESP.

Santa Rosa Commission wants more reform at TEAM

• Santa Rosa County Commissioners believe more work needs to be done on proposed changes to the Santa Rosa Economic Alliance, formerly known as the TEAM Santa Rosa Economic Development Council. • The alliance, while private, currently receives up to 90% of its budget from the county, and so commissioners believe greater oversight is needed into how taxpayer money is spent.

• Commissioners, the alliance, and the Economic Development Transition Committee are trying to find a balance between oversight of how the alliance decides its day-to-day actions and giving it enough freedom to encourage businesses to participate and become part of the alliance.

Source: Pensacola News-Journal, June 26, 2012

Source: Pensacola News-Journal, May 31, 2012

Pensacola Beach emerging strong despite past setbacks

• Despite the occurrence of hurricanes, the housing bust, high gas prices, and the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, Pensacola Beach still enjoys relative success.

• According to Rod Lewis, director of the University of West Florida Haas Center for Business and Economic Development, there has been a 10 percent expansion in the economic impact of the beach on the region in the past decade. • A study by Lewis for the Santa Rosa Island Authority also found that the impact of beach tourism and construction translates to 2,900 jobs, a labor income of $77 million, and $261 million rough visitor spending and nonresidential construction costs.

Source: Pensacola News-Journal, June 29, 2012

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

111


P e n saco l a – F e r ry Pa ss – B r e nt Pensacola - Ferry Pass - Brent MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manuf acturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation,Warehousing and Utilities Inf ormation Financial Activities Prof essional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Pensacola Unemployment Rate (percent)

12.0%

0.6

0.8

1.2

1.4

1.6

Pensacola Real Gross Metro Product 30000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

25000.0

10.0%

20000.0

8.0% 6.0%

15000.0

4.0%

10000.0

2.0%

1

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 FL Unemployment Rate Pensacola Unemployment Rate

5000.0

Pensacola Real Personal Income

Pensacola Payroll Employment 210.0

(Thousands)

8.0%

200.0

6.0%

190.0

4.0%

180.0

0.0%

160.0

-2.0%

150.0

112

(percent change year ago)

2.0%

170.0

140.0

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 Real Gross Metro Product

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 Pensacola Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

-4.0%

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 Real Personal Income


P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t

Quarterly Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

July 2012 Forecast

2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

16.8 1.7 7.2 9.6

17 2.5 7.2 9.8

17.2 3.8 7.3 9.9

17.3 4 7.4 9.9

17.4 3.8 7.4 10

17.6 3.5 7.5 10.1

17.7 3.4 7.6 10.2

18 4.1 7.6 10.4

18.2 4.3 7.7 10.5

18.4 4.5 7.8 10.6

18.6 4.7 7.9 10.7

18.8 4.6 8 10.9

19.1 5 8.1 11

19.3 5.1 8.1 11.2

19.6 5.4 8.2 11.3

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

14.5 0.1

14.7 1.6

14.8 2.8

14.9 3.4

15 3.1

15.1 2.3

15.1 2.1

15.3 2.5

15.3 2.3

15.4 2.4

15.5 2.6

15.7 2.6

15.8 3.1

15.9 3.3

16.1 3.5

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

36.7 31.8

37 32.1

37.3 32.3

37.5 32.3

37.7 32.4

37.9 32.5

38.2 32.5

38.6 32.7

38.8 32.8

39.1 32.8

39.4 33

39.8 33.2

40.2 33.3

40.5 33.4

40.9 33.6

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

42 3.3

42.2 2.5

42.5 2.3

42.8 2.4

43 2.4

43.2 2.3

43.5 2.2

43.8 2.3

44 2.5

44.3 2.6

44.6 2.7

44.9 2.6

45.2 2.7

45.5 2.7

45.8 2.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

157 -2.6

157.6 -2

158.1 -0.3

158.7 1.2

159.3 1.4

159.8 1.4

160.3 1.4

161 1.4

161.6 1.4

162.2 1.5

163 1.7

163.8 1.7

164.6 1.9

165.4 2

166.3 2

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

5.3 -1.9

5.3 0.6

5.3 0.8

5.4 0.7

5.4 1.8

5.4 2.1

5.5 2.6

5.5 2.8

5.5 2.2

5.6 2.1

5.6 1.9

5.6 1.6

5.6 1.4

5.6 1

5.6 0.7

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

151.7 -2.6

152.2 -2.1

152.8 -0.3

153.3 1.2

153.8 1.4

154.3 1.4

154.8 1.3

155.5 1.4

156 1.4

156.7 1.5

157.4 1.7

158.2 1.7

159 1.9

159.8 2

160.7 2.1

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

9.6 -2.5

9.6 -0.4

9.6 -1.2

9.7 0.1

9.8 2

9.9 3.6

10.1 5.7

10.4 7.5

10.6 8.9

10.9 10.1

11.3 11.4

11.7 12.1

12 12.9

12.4 13.5

12.8 13

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

28.9 -3.3

29 -2.9

29.1 -0.2

29.2 1.3

29.3 1.5

29.4 1.4

29.5 1.3

29.6 1.1

29.6 0.9

29.6 0.7

29.8 0.8

29.8 1

29.9 1.2

30.1 1.4

30.2 1.7

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

4.8 20.2 3.9

4.8 20.2 4

4.8 20.3 4

4.8 20.3 4

4.9 20.3 4

4.9 20.4 4.1

4.9 20.4 4.1

4.9 20.3 4.1

4.9 20.2 4.2

5 20.2 4.2

5 20.3 4.2

5.1 20.3 4.2

5.1 20.3 4.3

5.1 20.4 4.3

5.2 20.5 4.3

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

3.1 -5.5

3.1 -3.2

3.1 -2

3.1 1.3

3.2 3.2

3.2 3.7

3.2 3.3

3.2 2.9

3.2 1.2

3.2 0.4

3.2 0.6

3.3 1.5

3.3 2.3

3.3 2.9

3.3 3

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

8.4 -1.8

8.4 -1.1

8.4 0.2

8.5 1.8

8.5 1.4

8.5 1.2

8.5 0.8

8.5 0.1

8.5 -0.2

8.5 -0.4

8.5 -0.6

8.4 -0.6

8.4 -0.4

8.5 -0.3

8.4 -0.2

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

19.9 -5.2

20.1 -3.7

20.3 0.6

20.6 4.2

20.9 4.7

21 4.7

21.2 4.2

21.4 3.6

21.7 4.1

22 4.9

22.3 5.4

22.6 5.8

23 5.8

23.3 5.6

23.6 5.6

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

28.9 -2.3

29.1 -1.3

29.2 0.2

29.2 1.3

29.3 1.2

29.3 0.9

29.4 0.7

29.6 1.3

29.7 1.3

29.7 1.3

29.8 1.5

29.8 0.9

29.9 0.8

30 0.8

30.1 0.8

19 -1

19.2 -1.3

19.3 1.1

19.3 2.5

19.4 1.8

19.4 1.1

19.4 0.8

19.4 0.5

19.4 -0.1

19.3 -0.5

19.2 -0.9

19.2 -1

19.2 -1

19.1 -0.8

19.1 -0.7

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

5.9 -2.9

6 -2.6

6 -0.2

6 1.6

6 1.3

6 1.2

6 1

6.1 0.8

6.1 0.9

6.1 0.7

6.1 0.2

6.1 0

6.1 -0.1

6.1 -0.2

6.1 0

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

6.6 -2.7

6.6 -5.3

6.5 -5.5

6.5 -4.4

6.4 -3.3

6.4 -3.5

6.3 -3.6

6.3 -3.4

6.2 -3.3

6.2 -3.2

6.1 -3.1

6.1 -2.9

6 -2.6

6 -2.3

6 -2

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

21.3 -1

21.3 -1

21.2 -1.1

21.2 -0.8

21.2 -0.9

21.1 -0.7

21.1 -0.4

21.1 -0.3

21.1 -0.1

21.1 -0.1

21.1 0

21.1 0.1

21.1 0.1

21.1 0.2

21.2 0.1

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil)

12821.6 12885.5 12954.1 13008.4 13065.1 13115.5 13177.5 13251.5 13335.4

13436 13550.4 13657.1 13768.8 13883.5 13996.4

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

457.1 0.8

458.4 0.9

459.7 1

461 1.1

462.2 1.1

463.6 1.1

464.9 1.1

466.4 1.2

468 1.2

469.5 1.3

471.1 1.3

472.9 1.4

474.7 1.4

476.5 1.5

478.3 1.5

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

210.9 -1.6

211.9 -1

213 0.1

213.9 1.5

214.5 1.7

215.2 1.6

215.9 1.3

216.3 1.2

216.9 1.1

217.6 1.1

217.8 0.9

218 0.8

218.2 0.6

218.6 0.5

218.7 0.4

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

7.9

7.9

7.9

7.9

8

8

8

7.9

7.9

7.8

7.7

7.5

7.4

7.3

7.1

1128 1114 15

1062 1044 19

1068 1026 42

1144 1053 91

1265 1131 134

1390 1204 187

1497 1251 247

1621 1355 266

1769 1508 261

1931 1672 259

2073 1811 262

2214 1941 274

2356 2076 280

2471 2182 288

2543 2244 299

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

113


P e n saco l a – F e r ry Pa ss – B r e nt

Annual Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

July 2012

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

11.3 4.4 5.5 5.8

12.1 7.9 5.9 6.2

13 7.2 6.3 6.7

14.1 8.6 6.8 7.4

14.9 5.1 7 7.9

15.3 3.3 7 8.4

15.1 -1.3 6.9 8.3

15.8 4.1 6.9 8.8

16.5 4.6 7.1 9.4

16.9 2.4 7.2 9.7

11.9 2.3

12.5 5.1

13 4.1

13.8 5.7

14.1 2.4

14.1 0.1

13.9 -1.5

14.2 2.3

14.5 2.1

14.6 1

26.2 27.7

27.9 28.7

29.6 29.6

31.9 31

33.5 31.7

34.4 31.6

33.9 31

35 31.5

36.3 31.9

36.9 31.9

31.6 3

33.5 5.9

34.8 3.8

36.6 5.1

37.5 2.6

38.8 3.4

39.9 2.9

40 0.2

40.9 2.4

42.1 2.9

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

114

157.8 2.4

162.3 2.9

168.2 3.6

172.6 2.6

172.6 0

165.1 -4.3

157 -4.9

159.1 1.4

160.4 0.8

157.4 -1.9

7.4 1.1

7.3 -1.3

7.5 3.1

7.4 -1.4

7 -5.3

6.5 -7.9

5.4 -16.7

5.4 -0.6

5.3 -0.5

5.3 -0.3

150.4 2.5

155 3.1

160.6 3.6

165.2 2.8

165.6 0.3

158.6 -4.2

151.6 -4.5

153.7 1.4

155 0.8

152 -1.9

10.8 -2.9

11.6 7.8

13.9 19.4

15.4 10.4

14.7 -4

12.7 -14.1

10.6 -16.2

10.6 -0.6

9.9 -6.4

9.6 -2.8

30.2 0.9

31.2 3.2

33.1 6.1

33 -0.2

33.8 2.4

32.3 -4.5

30.1 -6.8

29.4 -2.4

29.7 0.9

29 -2.3

5.3 20.8 4.1

5.6 21.1 4.5

6.2 21.9 5

6.2 21.8 5

6.7 22.2 4.9

6.1 21.3 4.9

5.4 20.1 4.6

5.1 20.2 4.1

5 20.7 4

4.8 20.2 4

4.1 -2.1

3.9 -4.4

3.8 -4.6

3.8 0.7

3.6 -5.8

3.5 -2.6

3.2 -6.8

3.3 1.6

3.2 -2.4

3.1 -3.9

6.8 4.5

7.5 9.9

8.2 10

8.9 8.4

9.2 3

8.8 -3.7

8.6 -2.8

8.5 -1.2

8.5 0.2

8.4 -1.5

18.4 4.9

19.9 8

21.4 7.8

21.5 0.6

20.6 -4.6

19.1 -7

18.4 -3.6

19.7 6.7

20.7 5.3

20 -3.3

26.8 6.1

26.7 -0.3

26 -2.9

27.5 5.9

28.7 4.2

28.2 -1.5

28 -1

28.9 3.4

29.3 1.5

29 -1.1

16.9 6

17.7 4.7

17.6 -0.9

18 2.5

18 -0.1

17.9 -0.4

17.6 -1.8

18.1 2.8

19.2 6.1

19.1 -0.5

7.9 2.6

7.9 0.9

7.8 -1.5

7.8 0

7.8 -0.5

7.3 -6.4

6.7 -8.5

6.4 -4.5

6.1 -4.2

6 -2.3

6.9 -0.5

6.7 -2.1

6.7 -0.5

6.7 0.4

6.6 -2.5

6.5 -0.8

6.5 0.3

7.2 10.3

6.9 -4.5

6.6 -3.7

21.5 -0.1

21.8 1

22.2 2

22.5 1.4

22.7 1

22.3 -1.8

21.9 -2.1

21.8 -0.3

21.6 -1

21.3 -1.3

11464.8

11970.8

12592.7

13027.8

13169

12787.6

12524.1

12847.7

12933.5

12856

429.2 1

435.7 1.5

439.9 1

443.2 0.7

443.9 0.2

445.5 0.4

447.1 0.4

450.1 0.7

453.7 0.8

457.8 0.9

191.1 2.1

193.8 1.4

201.5 4

205.6 2

211.3 2.8

208.5 -1.3

206.9 -0.8

210.8 1.9

213.7 1.4

211.6 -1

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

4.8

4.6

3.7

3

3.7

5.8

9.4

10

9.8

8.1

4501 3647 854

4839 3712 1127

3791 3310 481

2868 2334 534

2426 1787 638

1326 1127 198

1036 956 80

1810 1364 446

1237 1235 2

1118 1093 26


P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t

Annual Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

July 2012

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

17.5 3.7 7.5 10

18.3 4.4 7.8 10.5

19.2 5 8.1 11.1

20.3 5.6 8.5 11.8

21.3 5.1 8.8 12.5

22.3 4.8 9.2 13.2

23.3 4.5 9.5 13.9

24.3 4.3 9.8 14.5

25.3 4.1 10.1 15.2

26.4 4.4 10.5 15.9

15 2.7

15.4 2.5

15.9 3.1

16.5 3.9

17.1 3.6

17.6 3.3

18.2 3.1

18.7 2.8

19.1 2.4

19.6 2.7

37.8 32.4

39 32.8

40.4 33.4

42 34.2

43.5 34.9

45.1 35.6

46.6 36.3

48.1 36.9

49.5 37.4

51.2 38.1

43.1 2.3

44.2 2.5

45.4 2.7

46.6 2.7

47.9 2.8

49.3 2.9

50.8 3

52.3 2.9

53.9 3

55.5 3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

159.5 1.4

161.9 1.5

165 1.9

168.3 2

170.8 1.5

172.3 0.9

173.2 0.5

174.1 0.6

174.8 0.4

175.8 0.6

5.4 1.8

5.5 2.3

5.6 1.2

5.6 -0.2

5.5 -0.9

5.5 -1.1

5.4 -1.2

5.4 -0.9

5.3 -1

5.3 -1

154.1 1.3

156.4 1.5

159.4 1.9

162.7 2

165.2 1.6

166.8 1

167.8 0.6

168.8 0.6

169.5 0.4

170.6 0.6

9.9 2.9

10.8 9.5

12.2 12.9

13.5 10.6

14.3 6.1

14.7 2.9

14.9 0.8

14.9 0.1

14.9 0.4

15 0.3

29.4 1.4

29.6 0.9

30 1.3

30.6 1.8

30.9 1.2

31.1 0.4

31 -0.2

30.9 -0.4

30.7 -0.6

30.6 -0.4

4.9 20.3 4.1

5 20.3 4.2

5.1 20.4 4.3

5.3 20.6 4.4

5.5 20.7 4.6

5.6 20.6 4.6

5.6 20.6 4.6

5.7 20.4 4.6

5.7 20.2 4.6

5.7 20.1 4.6

3.2 2.9

3.2 1.3

3.3 2.4

3.4 2.3

3.4 2.2

3.5 1.7

3.5 1.3

3.6 1

3.6 1.4

3.7 1.6

8.5 1.3

8.5 -0.3

8.4 -0.4

8.4 -0.3

8.5 0.5

8.5 0.5

8.5 0.3

8.5 0.2

8.5 -0.1

8.6 0.4

20.9 4.5

21.9 4.5

23.1 5.7

24.2 4.6

25.2 4

25.9 3.1

26.7 2.8

27.5 3.1

28.7 4.3

29.9 4.4

29.3 1

29.7 1.4

29.9 0.8

30.4 1.6

30.8 1.4

31.1 1

31.4 0.8

31.6 0.8

31.6 0

31.6 -0.1

19.4 1.5

19.3 -0.2

19.2 -0.9

19 -0.7

18.8 -1

18.6 -1.1

18.4 -1

18.2 -1.4

18 -1.2

17.7 -1.3

6 1.3

6.1 0.7

6.1 -0.1

6.1 0.3

6.1 0.3

6.1 -0.1

6.1 -0.2

6.1 -0.2

6.1 -0.2

6 -0.2

6.4 -3.7

6.2 -3.3

6 -2.5

5.9 -1.7

5.9 -1.3

5.8 -1.3

5.7 -0.9

6 4.1

5.8 -3.2

5.8 -0.2

21.1 -0.7

21.1 -0.1

21.1 0.1

21.2 0.2

21.3 0.4

21.4 0.6

21.5 0.5

21.5 0.2

21.6 0.2

21.7 0.5

13091.6

13393.3

13826.4

14253.7

14637.5

14978.2

15298.6

15623.8

15876.9

16177.7

462.9 1.1

468.7 1.3

475.6 1.5

482.8 1.5

489.4 1.4

495.4 1.2

500.8 1.1

506.2 1.1

511.2 1

516.1 1

214.9 1.5

217.2 1.1

218.4 0.6

219.3 0.4

220.6 0.6

222.2 0.7

223.8 0.7

225.3 0.7

226.4 0.5

227.4 0.4

8

7.8

7.3

6.8

6.4

6.1

5.9

5.8

5.7

5.7

1324 1160 164

1848 1586 262

2396 2111 285

2663 2325 338

2760 2393 367

2736 2369 368

2740 2367 374

2737 2366 371

2655 2305 350

2610 2266 344

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

115


P e n saco l a – F e r ry Pa ss – B r e nt

Annual Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

July 2012

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

27.6 4.5 10.9 16.8

28.8 4.5 11.2 17.6

30.1 4.4 11.6 18.5

31.5 4.5 12.1 19.4

32.9 4.6 12.6 20.4

34.4 4.4 13.1 21.3

35.9 4.4 13.6 22.2

37.4 4.3 14.2 23.2

39.1 4.4 14.8 24.2

40.8 4.5 15.5 25.4

20.2 2.7

20.7 2.5

21.2 2.5

21.7 2.5

22.3 2.6

22.9 2.4

23.4 2.4

23.9 2.3

24.5 2.3

25.1 2.5

53 38.7

54.8 39.3

56.8 40

58.8 40.6

61 41.3

63.2 42

65.4 42.7

67.8 43.4

70.3 44.1

73.1 45

57.2 3.1

58.9 3.1

60.8 3.1

62.7 3.2

64.7 3.2

66.8 3.2

69 3.3

71.2 3.2

73.6 3.4

76 3.3

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

116

176.7 0.5

177.2 0.3

178.2 0.6

179.6 0.8

181.2 0.9

182.9 0.9

184.8 1

186.8 1.1

188.6 1

190.9 1.2

5.2 -1.5

5.1 -1.6

5 -1.9

4.9 -2

4.8 -1.8

4.7 -1.9

4.6 -1.8

4.6 -1.7

4.5 -1.5

4.4 -1.6

171.5 0.5

172.1 0.3

173.2 0.6

174.7 0.9

176.4 1

178.2 1

180.1 1.1

182.2 1.1

184.1 1

186.5 1.3

15.1 0.7

15.2 1.1

15.5 1.6

15.8 2.1

16.1 1.6

16.3 1.1

16.4 0.9

16.6 1

16.8 1.7

17.1 1.8

30.5 -0.2

30.5 -0.1

30.5 0

30.5 0.1

30.7 0.4

30.8 0.3

30.9 0.3

30.9 0

30.9 0.1

30.9 0

5.7 20 4.6

5.8 19.9 4.7

5.8 19.8 4.7

5.8 19.8 4.8

5.8 19.9 4.8

5.8 19.9 4.8

5.9 20 4.8

5.8 20 4.8

5.9 20 4.8

5.8 20.1 4.8

3.7 0.6

3.7 0

3.7 0.3

3.8 0.9

3.8 1.3

3.9 1.7

3.9 1.9

4 1.5

4.1 1.5

4.1 1.6

8.6 0.3

8.6 0.4

8.7 0.6

8.7 0.6

8.8 0.8

8.9 1.1

9 1.1

9.1 1

9.2 1.1

9.3 1

30.8 3

31.3 1.6

32.1 2.5

33.1 3.1

34 2.7

35 2.8

36.1 3.2

37.1 3

38.6 3.8

40.2 4.3

31.6 -0.1

31.5 -0.2

31.5 0

31.6 0.3

31.8 0.6

32 0.7

32.3 0.8

32.5 0.6

32.7 0.6

32.8 0.6

17.5 -1.1

17.4 -0.7

17.3 -0.6

17.3 -0.2

17.3 0.3

17.4 0.5

17.5 0.6

17.5 0.3

17.6 0.5

17.7 0.5

6.1 0.2

6.1 0.4

6.1 0.7

6.2 0.6

6.2 0.6

6.3 0.7

6.3 0.8

6.4 0.8

6.4 0.5

6.4 0.3

5.8 0.3

5.8 0.5

5.8 0.4

5.9 0.3

5.9 0.3

5.9 0.2

5.9 0.2

6.3 6.3

6 -4.7

6 0.2

21.8 0.4

21.8 0.2

21.8 0.2

21.9 0.1

21.9 0.1

21.9 0.1

21.9 0.1

21.9 0

21.9 0

21.9 0

16545.5

16919.6

17310.4

17710

18106.6

18509

18931

19395.7

19858.9

20351.6

521.2 1

526.1 0.9

530.8 0.9

535.4 0.9

539.8 0.8

544 0.8

548 0.7

551.8 0.7

555.3 0.7

558.8 0.6

228.7 0.6

230.2 0.6

231.4 0.5

232.7 0.6

234.2 0.6

235.8 0.7

237.3 0.7

238.9 0.7

240.4 0.7

241.9 0.6

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

5.6

5.5

5.4

5.4

5.3

5.2

5.1

5

5

4.9

2637 2316 321

2771 2463 308

2840 2529 310

2885 2565 320

2856 2528 328

2805 2473 332

2778 2450 327

2798 2482 316

2785 2476 308

2712 2410 302


P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t

Annual Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

July 2012

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

42.6 4.3 16.1 26.5

44.4 4.2 16.6 27.7

46.2 4.2 17.2 29

48.2 4.3 17.8 30.4

50.2 4.1 18.4 31.8

52.3 4.2 19.1 33.2

54.5 4.1 19.7 34.8

56.7 4 20.4 36.3

59 4 21.1 37.9

61.4 4.1 21.9 39.5

25.7 2.3

26.2 2.1

26.8 2.2

27.4 2.2

28 2.1

28.6 2.2

29.2 2.1

29.8 2

30.3 2

31 2

75.8 45.7

78.5 46.5

81.4 47.2

84.5 48.1

87.6 48.8

91 49.7

94.4 50.5

97.8 51.4

101.5 52.2

105.3 53.1

78.4 3.1

80.8 3.1

83.3 3

85.8 3

88.3 3

91 3

93.7 3

96.4 2.9

99.2 2.9

102.1 2.9

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

192.4 0.8

193.4 0.5

194.4 0.5

195.4 0.5

196.4 0.5

197.5 0.5

198.5 0.5

199.7 0.6

200.7 0.5

202.1 0.7

4.3 -1.7

4.3 -1.6

4.2 -1.6

4.1 -1.5

4.1 -1.5

4 -1.4

4 -1.1

3.9 -1.1

3.9 -1.1

3.8 -1.1

188.1 0.9

189.1 0.5

190.1 0.5

191.3 0.6

192.3 0.6

193.5 0.6

194.5 0.5

195.8 0.6

196.8 0.5

198.3 0.7

17.4 1.4

17.5 0.8

17.7 0.8

17.8 1

18 1

18.2 0.9

18.3 0.8

18.3 0.1

18.4 0.3

18.5 0.6

30.9 -0.1

30.8 -0.3

30.7 -0.3

30.6 -0.2

30.6 -0.2

30.5 -0.1

30.5 -0.1

30.4 -0.1

30.4 0

30.4 0

5.8 20.1 4.8

5.8 20 4.7

5.8 20 4.7

5.8 20 4.6

5.7 20 4.6

5.7 20.1 4.5

5.7 20.1 4.5

5.6 20.1 4.4

5.7 20.2 4.3

5.7 20.2 4.3

4.2 1.6

4.3 1.6

4.3 1.8

4.4 1.8

4.5 1.8

4.6 1.8

4.7 1.9

4.7 1.8

4.8 1.8

4.9 1.9

9.4 0.9

9.4 0.7

9.5 0.8

9.6 0.8

9.6 0.6

9.7 0.6

9.8 0.5

9.8 0.1

9.7 -0.3

9.7 -0.3

41.3 2.7

42.2 2

43 1.9

43.8 1.9

44.6 1.9

45.4 1.8

46.2 1.8

47.2 2.2

48.4 2.5

49.7 2.6

32.9 0.3

32.9 0

32.9 -0.1

32.9 0

32.9 0

32.9 0.1

33 0

33 0.1

33 0.2

33.1 0.2

17.8 0.3

17.8 0.1

17.8 0.2

17.9 0.2

17.9 0.1

17.9 0.2

18 0.3

18 0.1

18 0.2

18.1 0.1

6.4 0.3

6.4 0.2

6.5 0.2

6.5 0.3

6.5 0.1

6.5 0.1

6.5 0.1

6.5 0

6.5 -0.1

6.5 -0.2

6 0.1

6 0.1

6 0.2

6 0.2

6 0.1

6 0

6 -0.1

6.3 3.8

6 -3.8

6 0.2

21.9 -0.1

21.8 -0.1

21.8 -0.2

21.8 -0.1

21.7 -0.1

21.7 -0.2

21.6 -0.3

21.5 -0.4

21.5 -0.4

21.4 -0.4

20805.4

21247.4

21710.6

22200.1

22715.6

23235.8

23770.4

24343.3

24948

25595.4

562 0.6

565 0.5

567.8 0.5

570.4 0.5

572.9 0.4

575.2 0.4

577.3 0.4

579.3 0.4

581.2 0.3

582.9 0.3

243.4 0.6

244.8 0.6

246.2 0.6

247.5 0.5

248.7 0.5

249.9 0.5

251.2 0.5

252.2 0.4

253.2 0.4

254.1 0.4

4.9

4.8

4.8

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.7

2704 2413 291

2745 2464 281

2792 2520 272

2822 2559 263

2797 2544 252

2765 2522 244

2740 2504 236

2709 2480 229

2706 2486 220

2692 2478 214

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

117


Tall aha s s e e

Profiles

Outlook Summaries

The Tallahassee MSA is comprised of Gadsden, Jefferson, Leon, and Wakulla Counties. It is located between Pensacola and Jacksonville. Tallahassee is the capital city of Florida and houses Florida State University and Florida A&M University.

The Tallahassee Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show minimal growth in the economic indicators relative to other metro areas forecasted in the state. The area should see personal income growth averaging 4.1 percent each year. Per capita income levels should average 31.3. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.0 percent. The average annual wage level will be 44.5. Population growth will be at 1.2 percent, and the Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 13,470.88 (Mill). Employment growth is expected to be 1.1 percent each year. The unemployment rate will average 6.5 percent, one of the lowest of the twelve MSAs. Construction and Mining will be the fastest growing sector in Tallahassee, averaging 6.4 percent annually. The Professional and Business Services sector follows with a growth rate of 4.3 percent. The State and Local Government and Federal Government sectors are expected to decline with average annual growth rates of -0.4 percent and -2.3 percent respectively.

Quick Facts: • Metro population estimate of 369,758 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Gadsden County population estimate of 46,151 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Jefferson County population estimate of 14,658 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Leon County population estimate of 277,971 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Wakulla County population estimate of 30,978 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • A civilian labor force of 189,722 in April 2012 (Florida Research and Economic Database). • An unemployment rate of 6.7% as of April 2012, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 12,720 unemployed people for the entire region (Florida Research and Economic Database). Top Area Employers: • State Government (all departments) – 30,918 • Florida State University – 6,450 • Leon County Schools – 4,444 • Tallahassee Memorial Healthcare – 3,130 • City of Tallahassee – 2,708 • Publix Super Markets – 2,084 • Leon County – 1,918 • Florida A&M University – 1,888 • Wal-Mart Stores Inc. – 1,300 • Capital Regional Medical Center – 890

Source: Tallahassee Economic Development Council

118

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

Metro News Summaries Tallahassee ranked No. 1 for retirement

• Tallahassee was number one on a list of 20 most appealing communities to live in for retirement. • Climate, cost of living, and access to healthcare were among the many sectors taken into consideration in the study. The mid-size of Tallahassee was a definite advantage for the community rather than large urban cities like Pittsburg. • The study shows the college towns are actually preferred by retirees because they offer educational attractions as well as cultural activities.

Source: FSU News, April 17, 2012


Ta l l a h a s s e e

Work begins on Miccosukee/Fleischmann Road Intersection Project • The city of Tallahassee is beginning the Road Intersection Project in order to help traffic concerns as well as beautify the area.

• The first phase of the project is the construction of a stormwater drainage pond. The second phase will be to construct a roundabout at the Miccosukee/Fleischmann Road intersection. • Lastly, the city would like to plant about 700 trees and add a sidewalk to make the area safer to walk around.

Source: TalGov, May 1, 2012

First quarter brings loss for Capital City Bank Group

• Capital City Bank Group Inc., a Tallahassee based company, had a net loss of $1.2 million in the first quarter of 2012. In the first quarter of last year the company had a net gain of $1.3 million. • The higher income taxes, higher noninterest expenses, and lower operating revenues were among the reasons for the loss in the first quarter.

• The owners of the Growing Room in Tallahassee found that many day care centers in Tallahassee had waiting lists; therefore it was necessary to open a new center.

Source: Tallahassee Democrat, May 4, 2012

FAMU seeking more funds to fight hazing

• Florida A&M University wants to spend an extra million dollars next year in order to fight hazing at the university. This is due to the recent death of Drum Major Robert Champion. • Some of the funds will go to hiring new staff including an anti-hazing assistant to the president and a compliance officer for the marching bands.

• FAMU also wants $800,000 for a “re-branding campaign” for the university’s image. • The university believes that enrollment in the upcoming Fall semester could drop by 18% which would mean a loss of $2.5 million in revenue.

Source: Tallahassee Democrat, June 6, 2012

• Kim Davis, Capital City’s chief financial officer, said that real estate is still weak and the extremely low interest rates are continuing to hurt the bank.

Source: Tallahassee Democrat, May 2, 2012

Growing Room adds third child-care center in Tallahassee

• The Growing Room, a child day care center, has opened its third location in Tallahassee in the Metropolitan Corporate Center. The location of the day care center is to provide convenience for the workers at the center. • The center would like to bring education to young children in the day care center.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

119


Tall aha s s e e Tallahassee MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manuf acturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Inf ormation Financial Activities Prof essional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

Florida & Tallahassee Unemployment Rate (percent)

12.0%

1

1.5

2.5

3

Tallahassee Real Gross Metro Product 30000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

25000.0

10.0%

20000.0

8.0% 6.0%

15000.0

4.0%

10000.0

2.0%

2

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 FL Unemployment Rate Tallahassee Unemployment Rate

5000.0

Tallahassee Real Personal Income

Tallahassee Payroll Employment 220.0

(Thousands)

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 Real Gross Metro Product

8.0%

(percent change year ago)

6.0% 200.0

4.0% 2.0%

180.0

0.0% -2.0%

160.0 140.0

120

-4.0% 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 Tallahassee Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

-6.0%

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 Real Personal Income


Ta l l a h a s s e e

Quarterly Outlook for Tallahassee, FL

July 2012 Forecast

2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

13.1 3 7.2 5.9

13.3 4 7.3 6

13.4 4.5 7.4 6.1

13.5 3.9 7.4 6.1

13.6 3.8 7.5 6.1

13.8 3.6 7.6 6.2

13.9 3.5 7.6 6.3

14.1 4.1 7.7 6.4

14.2 4.2 7.8 6.4

14.4 4.4 7.9 6.5

14.5 4.6 8 6.6

14.7 4.5 8.1 6.7

14.9 4.8 8.2 6.7

15.1 5 8.3 6.8

15.3 5.2 8.4 6.9

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

11.4 1.5

11.5 3

11.6 3.5

11.7 3.3

11.7 3.1

11.8 2.4

11.8 2.1

11.9 2.5

12 2.3

12.1 2.3

12.1 2.5

12.2 2.6

12.3 2.9

12.4 3.2

12.5 3.4

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

35.3 30.6

35.6 30.8

35.9 31

36 31

36.2 31.1

36.4 31.2

36.6 31.2

37 31.4

37.2 31.4

37.5 31.5

37.8 31.6

38.1 31.7

38.4 31.8

38.7 31.9

39.1 32.1

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

42.4 3.4

42.7 2.7

43.1 2.7

43.4 2.8

43.6 2.8

43.9 2.7

44.2 2.6

44.5 2.7

44.9 2.9

45.2 3

45.6 3.1

45.9 3.1

46.3 3.1

46.6 3.1

47 3.1

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

169.1 0.4

169.4 1.2

169.9 1.2

170.4 0.9

170.8 1

171.3 1.1

171.7 1.1

172.2 1.1

172.7 1.1

173.3 1.2

174 1.3

174.7 1.4

175.4 1.6

176.2 1.7

177 1.7

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

3.2 -2.4

3.3 0.2

3.3 -0.6

3.3 1.1

3.3 2.3

3.3 2.8

3.4 3.3

3.4 3.7

3.4 3.1

3.4 2.9

3.5 2.7

3.5 2.3

3.5 2.1

3.5 1.8

3.5 1.5

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

165.8 0.5

166.1 1.2

166.7 1.3

167.1 0.9

167.5 1

167.9 1.1

168.3 1

168.8 1

169.3 1.1

169.8 1.1

170.5 1.3

171.2 1.4

171.9 1.5

172.7 1.7

173.5 1.7

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

6 -1.9

6 -0.4

6 -1.8

6.1 -0.1

6.1 1.8

6.2 3.7

6.4 6.2

6.6 8.5

6.8 10.3

7 11.7

7.2 13

7.5 13.5

7.7 13.9

7.9 14

8.2 13.2

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

22 -1.3

22.1 -1.4

22.2 2.8

22.2 1.2

22.3 1.3

22.3 1.3

22.4 1.1

22.4 0.9

22.4 0.7

22.5 0.5

22.5 0.7

22.6 0.8

22.7 1.1

22.8 1.3

22.9 1.5

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.4 17 1.6

3.4 17 1.6

3.4 17 1.7

3.4 17.1 1.7

3.4 17.1 1.7

3.5 17.1 1.7

3.5 17.1 1.7

3.5 17 1.7

3.5 17 1.7

3.5 17 1.7

3.6 17 1.7

3.6 17 1.8

3.6 17 1.8

3.6 17.1 1.8

3.7 17.2 1.8

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

3.3 5.6

3.3 4.5

3.3 3.6

3.4 2

3.4 3.5

3.4 4

3.4 2.7

3.5 2.8

3.5 2

3.5 1.3

3.5 1.3

3.5 1.6

3.5 1.8

3.6 2.4

3.6 2.6

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.7 2.6

7.8 3

7.8 3.1

7.8 1.6

7.8 1.3

7.8 1

7.8 0.7

7.8 -0.1

7.8 -0.3

7.8 -0.4

7.8 -0.6

7.8 -0.6

7.8 -0.4

7.8 -0.2

7.8 -0.2

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

19 2.7

19.2 2.9

19.4 2.7

19.7 4

19.9 4.7

20.1 4.8

20.2 4.1

20.4 3.4

20.7 3.8

21 4.6

21.3 5.3

21.6 5.8

21.9 5.9

22.2 5.8

22.5 5.8

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

20.5 3.6

20.6 3.4

20.6 3

20.6 1.1

20.7 1.1

20.7 0.8

20.7 0.6

20.9 1.2

20.9 1.2

21 1.2

21 1.4

21.1 0.9

21.1 1

21.2 1

21.3 1

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

16.4 1.4

16.5 3.7

16.6 5.7

16.7 2.3

16.7 1.7

16.7 1

16.7 0.7

16.7 0.4

16.7 -0.2

16.6 -0.6

16.6 -1

16.6 -1.1

16.5 -1

16.5 -0.9

16.4 -0.8

9.3 3.5

9.4 3.4

9.4 2.5

9.4 1.9

9.5 1.5

9.5 1.4

9.5 1.2

9.5 0.9

9.6 0.9

9.6 0.8

9.5 0.3

9.5 0.1

9.6 0

9.6 0

9.6 0.2

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.9 -0.9

1.9 -1.1

1.9 -2.8

1.8 -3.8

1.8 -2.8

1.8 -3.1

1.8 -3.1

1.8 -3

1.8 -2.9

1.8 -2.8

1.8 -2.6

1.7 -2.4

1.7 -2.1

1.7 -1.8

1.7 -1.6

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

59.7 -1.5

59.5 -0.1

59.4 -1.5

59.3 -0.7

59.3 -0.7

59.2 -0.4

59.3 -0.3

59.2 -0.2

59.2 -0.1

59.2 -0.1

59.3 0

59.4 0.2

59.4 0.3

59.4 0.4

59.5 0.4

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

13041.8 13083.1 13154.2 13208.2 13260.8 13305.8 13362.2 13426.3 13508.1 13599.5 13708.3 13812.4 13916.5 14022.2 14127.8 372 0.6

373.1 0.7

374.2 0.9

375.3 1.1

376.5 1.2

377.8 1.3

379.1 1.3

380.4 1.4

381.8 1.4

383.1 1.4

384.5 1.4

386.1 1.5

387.7 1.6

389.3 1.6

390.8 1.7

193.8 0.8

194.2 1.2

194.6 1.1

195 0.7

195.5 0.9

195.9 0.9

196.4 0.9

196.5 0.8

196.8 0.6

197.2 0.6

197.2 0.4

197.2 0.3

197.3 0.3

197.6 0.2

197.5 0.1

Unemployment Rate (%)

6.8

6.7

6.6

6.6

6.6

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.4

6.4

6.3

6.2

6.1

6

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

856 642 214

907 675 232

998 693 305

1078 737 341

1214 833 381

1355 916 439

1481 994 487

1560 1069 491

1725 1182 542

1896 1302 594

2050 1402 648

2195 1495 700

2327 1595 732

2430 1672 759

2498 1710 788

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

121


Tall aha s s e e

Annual Outlook for Tallahassee, FL

July 2012

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

9 3.7 5.6 3.4

9.8 8.5 5.9 3.9

10.6 7.8 6.2 4.3

11.2 6.3 6.6 4.7

11.8 5.5 6.9 5

12.3 3.5 6.9 5.3

11.9 -3.1 6.8 5.1

12.3 3.2 6.8 5.4

12.8 4 7 5.8

13.2 3.5 7.2 6

9.5 1.7

10.1 5.7

10.6 4.7

10.9 3.5

11.2 2.7

11.3 0.3

10.9 -3.3

11 1.4

11.2 1.5

11.4 2.1

27 28.5

28.8 29.7

30.6 30.6

32 31.1

33.1 31.4

33.9 31.1

32.5 29.8

33.3 30

34.5 30.3

35.4 30.7

33.9 2.3

35.3 4.2

36.2 2.5

37.2 2.8

38.5 3.6

39.2 1.8

39.5 0.7

40.2 1.7

41.3 2.9

42.6 3.1

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

122

164.7 0.8

167.2 1.5

171.8 2.8

176.1 2.5

178 1.1

176.4 -0.9

171.4 -2.8

169.3 -1.2

168.2 -0.6

169.3 0.7

4.1 -0.6

4.2 2

4.2 0.8

4.5 4.9

4.6 2.8

4.3 -7.1

3.8 -9.5

3.7 -4.1

3.3 -9.8

3.3 -2.2

160.5 0.8

162.9 1.5

167.6 2.8

171.6 2.4

173.4 1.1

172.1 -0.8

167.5 -2.7

165.6 -1.1

164.9 -0.4

166 0.7

7.7 7

8.3 8.6

9.4 12.4

9.8 4.8

9.5 -3

8.6 -9.7

7 -18.1

6.4 -9.1

6.1 -4

6 -2

23.3 0.4

24.4 4.5

25.2 3.5

25.4 0.9

25.1 -1.2

24 -4.5

22.4 -6.7

22.2 -0.9

22.2 -0.1

22 -0.6

3 18.5 1.8

3.3 19.1 1.9

3.6 19.3 2.3

3.7 19.4 2.2

3.8 19.2 2.2

3.6 18.5 1.9

3.4 17.4 1.6

3.3 17.3 1.6

3.3 17.2 1.6

3.4 17 1.6

3.4 -4.2

3.6 5.1

3.7 2.1

3.5 -5.2

3.6 2.8

3.6 0.5

3.4 -6

3.1 -9.1

3.2 2.5

3.3 5

7.7 3

7.6 -0.7

8 4.8

8.3 4.4

8.2 -1.9

7.9 -2.9

7.5 -5.8

7.4 -1.1

7.5 2.1

7.7 2.6

17.2 -0.1

17.2 -0.2

18.2 5.9

19.1 5.2

18.9 -1.2

19.1 1.3

18.5 -3.6

18.2 -1.6

18.6 2.7

19.1 2.7

17.1 1

16.8 -1.6

17.2 2.6

17.8 3.3

18.5 3.8

19.2 4

19.5 1.4

19.5 0.2

19.8 1.4

20.5 3.5

13.8 1.6

14.6 6.1

15.8 8.2

16.4 3.3

17 3.6

16.7 -1.5

16.4 -1.7

16.2 -1.3

16 -1.1

16.5 2.8

7.8 -3.8

8 2.8

8 -0.6

8.5 5.9

9 5.9

9.8 8.8

9.9 2

9.6 -3.4

9.1 -5.7

9.3 3.1

2 3

1.9 -3.3

1.9 0

1.9 -1.7

1.9 0

2 3.9

2 1.2

2.1 5

1.9 -9.1

1.9 -1.3

60.5 0.8

60.5 -0.1

60.2 -0.5

60.9 1.2

61.8 1.6

61.2 -1

60.9 -0.4

60.9 0

60.4 -0.8

59.6 -1.4

11364.8

11810.2

12221.3

12593.8

13068.4

12952.7

12762.8

12844.5

12862.2

13069.1

334.8 1.8

339.8 1.5

345.1 1.6

351.5 1.8

357.7 1.8

361.6 1.1

365.2 1

368 0.8

370 0.6

372.7 0.7

173.4 0.5

172.9 -0.3

178 3

182 2.3

188.3 3.5

191.3 1.6

191.7 0.2

192 0.1

192.4 0.2

194.1 0.9

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

4.2

3.8

3.2

2.7

3.1

4.7

7.3

8.3

8.3

6.9

3932 2482 1451

3438 2179 1260

3831 2788 1043

3111 2548 563

2767 2182 585

1236 962 273

829 614 216

658 601 57

708 556 152

899 654 244


Ta l l a h a s s e e

Annual Outlook for Tallahassee, FL

July 2012

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

13.7 3.7 7.5 6.2

14.3 4.3 7.8 6.5

15 4.9 8.2 6.8

15.8 5.5 8.6 7.2

16.6 5 9 7.6

17.4 4.8 9.4 8

18.2 4.5 9.8 8.4

18.9 4.1 10.2 8.8

19.7 4.1 10.6 9.1

20.6 4.4 11 9.6

11.7 2.7

12 2.4

12.4 3

12.9 3.8

13.3 3.5

13.7 3.2

14.1 3

14.5 2.7

14.9 2.5

15.3 2.7

36.3 31.1

37.4 31.5

38.6 31.9

40 32.6

41.5 33.3

42.9 33.9

44.3 34.5

45.6 35.1

47 35.6

48.6 36.2

43.8 2.7

45 2.9

46.4 3.1

47.9 3.1

49.4 3.2

51.1 3.3

52.8 3.4

54.6 3.3

56.4 3.4

58.3 3.3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

171.1 1

173 1.2

175.8 1.6

178.7 1.7

181.1 1.3

182.8 1

184.1 0.7

185.3 0.6

186.3 0.6

187.7 0.8

3.3 2.4

3.4 3.1

3.5 1.9

3.5 0.7

3.5 -0.1

3.5 -0.1

3.5 -0.3

3.5 -0.1

3.5 -0.1

3.5 -0.5

167.7 1

169.6 1.1

172.3 1.6

175.2 1.7

177.5 1.3

179.3 1

180.6 0.7

181.8 0.6

182.8 0.6

184.3 0.8

6.2 2.9

6.9 10.9

7.8 13.7

8.6 10.2

9.1 5.5

9.3 2.5

9.4 0.6

9.4 0

9.4 0.3

9.4 0.1

22.3 1.2

22.5 0.7

22.7 1.2

23.1 1.7

23.4 1.1

23.5 0.4

23.5 -0.1

23.4 -0.3

23.3 -0.5

23.2 -0.4

3.5 17.1 1.7

3.5 17 1.7

3.6 17.1 1.8

3.8 17.3 1.9

3.9 17.4 1.9

3.9 17.4 2

4 17.4 2

4 17.3 2

4 17.1 2

4 17 2

3.4 3

3.5 1.8

3.5 2.1

3.6 2.1

3.7 2.3

3.8 1.9

3.8 1.5

3.9 1.1

3.9 1.5

4 1.7

7.8 1.2

7.8 -0.3

7.8 -0.3

7.8 -0.3

7.8 0.3

7.8 0.3

7.8 0.2

7.8 0.1

7.8 -0.3

7.8 0.2

20 4.4

20.8 4.3

22.1 5.8

23.1 4.7

24.1 4.1

24.8 3.3

25.6 2.9

26.4 3.1

27.5 4.2

28.7 4.4

20.7 0.9

21 1.3

21.2 1

21.5 1.8

21.9 1.5

22.1 1.2

22.4 1.1

22.6 1

22.6 0.2

22.7 0.1

16.7 1.4

16.7 -0.3

16.5 -0.9

16.4 -0.8

16.2 -1.1

16 -1.1

15.9 -1

15.6 -1.4

15.5 -1.2

15.2 -1.3

9.5 1.5

9.5 0.8

9.6 0.1

9.6 0.5

9.7 0.5

9.7 0.1

9.7 -0.1

9.7 0

9.6 -0.1

9.6 -0.2

1.8 -3.2

1.8 -2.8

1.7 -2

1.7 -1.2

1.7 -0.9

1.7 -0.7

1.7 -0.4

1.8 7.8

1.7 -5.6

1.7 0.2

59.3 -0.5

59.2 -0.1

59.4 0.3

59.8 0.5

60.1 0.6

60.6 0.8

61 0.7

61.2 0.4

61.5 0.4

61.9 0.7

13284.2

13560.5

13969.7

14370.7

14738

15079.5

15409.7

15727.5

15998.8

16303.8

377.2 1.2

382.5 1.4

388.5 1.6

394.7 1.6

400.3 1.4

405.3 1.3

409.9 1.1

414.3 1.1

418.6 1

422.8 1

195.7 0.9

196.9 0.6

197.4 0.2

197.6 0.1

198.1 0.2

198.8 0.3

199.8 0.5

201.2 0.7

202.3 0.5

203.3 0.5

6.6

6.4

6.2

5.8

5.6

5.4

5.3

5.2

5.1

5.1

1282 870 412

1808 1239 569

2363 1618 745

2653 1752 901

2791 1768 1022

2726 1719 1007

2644 1677 967

2562 1635 927

2449 1564 885

2372 1504 869

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

123


Tall aha s s e e

Annual Outlook for Tallahassee, FL

July 2012

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

21.5 4.5 11.4 10

22.4 4.4 11.9 10.6

23.4 4.4 12.4 11.1

24.5 4.5 12.9 11.6

25.6 4.5 13.5 12.1

26.7 4.4 14.1 12.6

27.9 4.4 14.7 13.1

29.1 4.3 15.4 13.7

30.4 4.5 16.1 14.3

31.8 4.6 16.9 14.9

15.7 2.6

16.1 2.5

16.5 2.5

16.9 2.5

17.3 2.6

17.8 2.4

18.2 2.4

18.6 2.3

19.1 2.4

19.6 2.6

50.3 36.7

52 37.3

53.8 37.9

55.7 38.4

57.7 39.1

59.6 39.7

61.7 40.3

63.8 40.9

66.2 41.5

68.7 42.2

60.3 3.5

62.4 3.4

64.5 3.5

66.8 3.5

69.2 3.6

71.7 3.6

74.3 3.6

76.9 3.6

79.8 3.7

82.6 3.6

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

124

188.8 0.6

189.5 0.4

190.7 0.6

192.3 0.8

194 0.9

195.8 0.9

197.7 1

199.5 0.9

201.5 1

203.8 1.1

3.4 -1

3.4 -1

3.4 -1

3.3 -1.1

3.3 -1

3.3 -1

3.2 -0.9

3.2 -0.8

3.2 -0.7

3.2 -0.7

185.4 0.6

186.1 0.4

187.3 0.7

188.9 0.9

190.7 0.9

192.5 0.9

194.5 1

196.3 0.9

198.3 1

200.7 1.2

9.5 0.5

9.6 1

9.7 1.6

9.9 2.1

10.1 1.6

10.2 1.1

10.3 0.8

10.4 1

10.5 1.7

10.7 1.8

23.1 -0.2

23.1 -0.1

23.1 0.1

23.2 0.2

23.3 0.5

23.4 0.5

23.5 0.4

23.6 0.2

23.6 0.2

23.7 0.2

4.1 16.9 2

4.1 16.9 2

4.1 16.8 2.1

4.1 16.8 2.1

4.1 16.9 2.1

4.1 17 2.1

4.1 17.1 2.1

4.1 17.1 2.2

4.1 17.1 2.2

4.1 17.2 2.2

4 0.6

4 0.1

4.1 0.5

4.1 1.1

4.2 1.5

4.2 1.8

4.3 2

4.4 1.6

4.5 1.7

4.5 1.7

7.8 0.1

7.8 0.1

7.9 0.3

7.9 0.4

7.9 0.6

8 0.9

8.1 0.9

8.2 0.8

8.2 0.9

8.3 0.8

29.5 2.9

30 1.5

30.7 2.4

31.6 3

32.4 2.6

33.3 2.6

34.3 3

35.2 2.8

36.5 3.7

38.1 4.1

22.7 0

22.6 -0.1

22.7 0

22.7 0.4

22.9 0.6

23.1 0.8

23.3 0.9

23.4 0.7

23.6 0.6

23.7 0.6

15.1 -1.2

14.9 -0.7

14.9 -0.5

14.8 -0.2

14.9 0.3

15 0.5

15.1 0.6

15.1 0.4

15.2 0.5

15.3 0.5

9.6 0.1

9.7 0.3

9.7 0.6

9.8 0.6

9.8 0.6

9.9 0.7

10 0.8

10.1 0.7

10.1 0.5

10.1 0.2

1.7 1.5

1.8 2.2

1.8 2.2

1.9 2.1

1.9 2.1

1.9 2

2 1.9

2.1 7.9

2.1 -2.8

2.1 1.9

62.3 0.6

62.5 0.4

62.8 0.4

63 0.4

63.3 0.4

63.5 0.3

63.7 0.3

63.9 0.2

64 0.2

64.2 0.2

16669.5

17045.2

17445.9

17854.6

18261.4

18675.7

19110.6

19567

20057.8

20563.1

427 1

431.2 1

435.4 1

439.5 0.9

443.6 0.9

447.7 0.9

451.7 0.9

455.5 0.9

459.2 0.8

462.9 0.8

204.5 0.6

205.9 0.6

207 0.5

208.3 0.6

209.6 0.7

211.1 0.7

212.5 0.7

213.9 0.7

215.4 0.7

216.8 0.6

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

5

4.9

4.9

4.8

4.7

4.6

4.6

4.5

4.4

4.4

2360 1506 855

2416 1572 843

2440 1583 858

2456 1568 888

2422 1502 920

2368 1422 945

2318 1368 950

2287 1350 937

2232 1307 926

2138 1223 915


Ta l l a h a s s e e

Annual Outlook for Tallahassee, FL

July 2012

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

33.1 4.3 17.6 15.5

34.5 4.1 18.3 16.2

35.9 4.1 19 16.9

37.4 4.1 19.8 17.6

38.9 4 20.5 18.4

40.5 4.1 21.3 19.2

42.1 4 22.1 20

43.8 4 23 20.8

45.6 4 23.9 21.7

47.4 4 24.8 22.6

20 2.3

20.4 2.1

20.8 2.1

21.3 2.1

21.7 2

22.1 2.1

22.6 2

23 1.9

23.4 1.9

23.9 2

71.1 42.9

73.4 43.4

75.9 44

78.5 44.6

81.1 45.2

83.9 45.8

86.7 46.4

89.6 47

92.6 47.7

95.8 48.3

85.5 3.4

88.4 3.4

91.4 3.3

94.4 3.3

97.5 3.3

100.7 3.3

104.1 3.3

107.5 3.3

111 3.3

114.6 3.2

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

205.4 0.8

206.5 0.5

207.5 0.5

208.7 0.6

209.8 0.5

210.9 0.5

212.1 0.5

213.3 0.6

214.6 0.6

216.1 0.7

3.1 -0.9

3.1 -0.8

3.1 -0.8

3.1 -0.7

3.1 -0.7

3 -0.6

3 -0.3

3 -0.3

3 -0.3

3 -0.3

202.3 0.8

203.3 0.5

204.4 0.5

205.6 0.6

206.7 0.5

207.9 0.6

209 0.6

210.3 0.6

211.6 0.6

213.1 0.7

10.9 1.4

10.9 0.7

11 0.8

11.1 1

11.2 0.9

11.3 0.8

11.4 0.7

11.4 0

11.4 0.2

11.5 0.6

23.7 0.1

23.7 -0.1

23.6 -0.1

23.6 0

23.6 0

23.7 0.1

23.7 0.1

23.7 0.1

23.8 0.2

23.8 0.2

4.1 17.2 2.2

4.1 17.2 2.2

4.1 17.2 2.1

4.1 17.2 2.1

4.1 17.3 2.1

4 17.3 2.1

4 17.4 2.1

4 17.4 2.1

4 17.5 2.1

4 17.5 2

4.6 1.7

4.7 1.8

4.8 2

4.9 2

5 1.9

5.1 1.9

5.2 2

5.3 2

5.4 1.9

5.5 2

8.4 0.7

8.4 0.5

8.4 0.6

8.5 0.6

8.5 0.4

8.6 0.4

8.6 0.3

8.6 -0.1

8.6 -0.5

8.5 -0.5

39 2.6

39.8 1.9

40.5 1.8

41.2 1.8

41.9 1.7

42.6 1.7

43.3 1.6

44.2 2

45.2 2.4

46.3 2.5

23.8 0.3

23.8 0.1

23.8 0

23.9 0.1

23.9 0.1

23.9 0.2

24 0.1

24 0.2

24.1 0.2

24.1 0.3

15.3 0.4

15.3 0.1

15.4 0.3

15.4 0.3

15.5 0.2

15.5 0.3

15.5 0.3

15.6 0.1

15.6 0.2

15.6 0.1

10.2 0.3

10.2 0.2

10.2 0.2

10.2 0.3

10.2 0.1

10.2 0

10.2 0.1

10.2 -0.1

10.2 -0.1

10.2 -0.3

2.1 1.8

2.2 1.8

2.2 1.9

2.3 1.8

2.3 1.7

2.3 1.6

2.4 1.5

2.5 5.2

2.4 -2

2.5 1.8

64.2 0.1

64.3 0.1

64.4 0.1

64.5 0.1

64.6 0.1

64.6 0.1

64.7 0.2

64.8 0.1

64.9 0.2

65 0.1

21029.1

21484.6

21962.4

22466.1

22998

23534

24092.7

24676.9

25320.9

25998

466.4 0.8

469.8 0.7

473.2 0.7

476.4 0.7

479.7 0.7

482.9 0.7

486 0.7

489.1 0.6

492 0.6

495 0.6

218.1 0.6

219.4 0.6

220.7 0.6

221.9 0.5

223.1 0.5

224.2 0.5

225.3 0.5

226.3 0.4

227.2 0.4

228.1 0.4

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.2

4.2

4.2

4.2

4.2

4.2

4.2

2080 1181 899

2052 1169 883

2030 1161 870

1998 1144 854

1934 1103 830

1876 1060 815

1828 1021 807

1779 982 798

1739 955 784

1698 925 773

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

125


Tam pa – St. P e te r s b u rg – Cle arwate r

Profiles

Outlook Summaries

The Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater MSA is comprised of Hernando, Hillsborough, Pasco, and Pinellas counties. Located centrally on the west coast of Florida, this region includes Tarpon Springs, Sponge Docks, Ybor City, Bush Gardens, the University of South Florida and the University of Tampa. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Tampa Bay Rays call this region home.

The Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show moderate growth in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to be 4.5 percent on average each year, and the per capita income level will average 34.9 annually. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.8 percent. The average annual wage level will be 50.3. Population growth will average 1.3 percent, and Tampa is forecasted to have the second highest Gross Metro Product in the studied areas, averaging a level of 110,514.48 (Mill). Employment growth is expected to be 1.9 percent annually. The unemployment rate is expected to average 8.1 percent. The fastest growing sector in the Tampa area will be Construction and Mining, growing 5.0 percent each year. The Professional and Business Services sector follows with an average annual growth rate of 4.1 percent. The Federal Government sector will be the only sector that will experience a decline with an annual growth rate of -2.3 percent.

Quick Facts:

• MSA population estimate of 2,824,724 as of July 1, 2011. (U.S. Census Bureau) • Hernando County population estimate of 173,094 as of July 1, 2011. (U.S. Census Bureau) • Hillsborough County population estimate of 1,267,775 as of July 1, 2011. (U.S. Census Bureau) • Pasco County population estimate of 466,475 as of July 1, 2011. (U.S. Census Bureau) • Pinellas County population estimate of 917,398 as of July 1, 2011. (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 1,294,005 as of April 2012. (Florida Research and Economic Information Database Application) • An unemployment rate of 8.5% as of April 2012. This amounts to 110,492 unemployed people throughout the entire region. (Florida Research and Economic Information Database Application)

Top Area Employers:

• Hillsborough County School board – 29,603 employees • MacDill Air Force Base – 15,485 employees • Pinellas County School District – 13,905 employees • Hillsborough County Government – 9,328 employees • Pasco County School District – 9,289 employees • Verizon Communications, Inc. – 9,065 employees • University of South Florida – 8,353 employees • Tampa International Airport – 8,060 employees • Tampa General Hospital – 6,900 employees • Publix Food Centers – 5,823 employees

Sources: Pasco County School District, Pinellas County School District, 2011 Comprehensive Annual Financial Report: Tampa Port Authority 126

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

Metro News Summaries $100M Quality Distribution deal signals energy biz expansion

• Tampa logistics firm Quality Distribution is acquiring assets of two companies, Wylie Bice Trucking LLC and RM Resources LLC, for $79.3 million combined, with an additional $19 million paid if certain future criteria are met.

• The companies acquired provide transportation services for oil and gas industries in oil-rich shales, broadening Quality Distribution’s reach. • Quality Distribution provides numerous transportation services for companies across North America in chemical and oil industries through its subsidiaries.

Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, May 8, 2012


Ta m pa – S t . P e t e r s b u r g – C l e a r w a t e r

Tampa Electric rolls out new program for weatherizing low income homes

• Tampa Electric, a subsidiary of TECO Energy, is weatherizing the homes of low-income owners in Sulphur Springs and Tampa Heights at no charge to the consumers. • The weatherization program is expected to save residents approximately $100 per year, the savings of which benefits all customers by reducing the need for fee increases for new power plants.

• Progress Energy and other utilities across the state offer similar services, including free energy efficiency assessments for customers. • Those who do not qualify for the program can expect to pay $700 for professional weatherization, or less if they do it themselves.

Source: Tampa Bay Times, June 20, 2012

LumaStream lighting company announces plan to bring manufacturing jobs to St. Petersburg

• LumaStream, a lighting company which engineers products in Canada and manufactures them in Taiwan, announced a plan to bring those jobs to St. Petersburg, which they expect will create 1,000 jobs over the next five years.

USF on budget, PECO: “Trying to avoid catastrophe”

• Continuous budget cuts by the state and draining of funds for construction have left the University of South Florida in dire budgetary situations. USF Chief Operating Officer John Long said the school is “trying to avoid catastrophe.” • The USF Board of Trustees voted to approve an operating budget that is $40 million less than last year. In addition, they are losing $30 million as the USF campus at Lakeland breaks off to form the 12th state university, Florida Polytechnic. • State university budgets have been cut by close to 50% over the past few years, causing the budget woes. In addition, the fund known as PECO—Public Education Capital Outlay— has shrunk because the utility tax that pays for it has lost revenue due to people abandoning use of land lines and becoming more energy efficient.

Source: Tampa Bay Times, May 24, 2012

• LumaStream will directly hire about 200 corporate employees and engineers, with expected salaries between $50k and $150k. The rest of the jobs will come from outsourcing the manufacturing jobs to local contractors. • The lighting company is making the move to better oversee operations and because local officials were able to provide incentives for LumaStream to relocate its jobs.

• Several other companies, such as Ditek Corp., Genicon, and JS Karaoke have moved oversees jobs back to Florida for similar reasons.

Source: Tampa Bay Times, June 15, 2012

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

127


Tam pa – St. P e te r s b u rg – Cle arwate r Tampa - St. Petersburg - Clearwater Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manuf acturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Inf ormation Financial Activities Prof essional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

Florida & Tampa Unemployment Rate (percent)

12.0%

0.4

0.6

1

1.2

1.4

Tampa Real Gross Metro Product 300000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

250000.0

10.0%

200000.0

8.0% 6.0%

150000.0

4.0%

100000.0

2.0%

0.8

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 FL Unemployment Rate Tampa Unemployment Rate

50000.0

Tampa Real Personal Income

Tampa Payroll Employment 1800.0

(Thousands)

(percent change year ago)

4.0%

1400.0

2.0% 0.0%

1200.0

-2.0%

1000.0

128

8.0% 6.0%

1600.0

800.0

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 Real Gross Metro Product

-4.0%

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 Tampa Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

-6.0%

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 Real Personal Income


Ta m pa – S t . P e t e r s b u r g – C l e a r w a t e r

Quarterly Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

July 2012 Forecast

2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

111.3 3.4 55.7 55.6

112.7 3.8 56.3 56.3

114 4.4 57.1 56.9

115.1 4.5 57.7 57.4

116.3 4.5 58.3 58

117.4 4.2 58.9 58.5

118.6 4 59.5 59.1

120.4 4.6 60.1 60.2

121.6 4.6 60.8 60.8

123.1 4.9 61.6 61.6

124.7 5.2 62.4 62.3

126.6 5.2 63.2 63.3

128.2 5.4 64 64.1

129.8 5.4 64.9 65

131.4 5.4 65.7 65.8

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

96.4 1.8

97.6 2.8

98.5 3.4

99.2 3.8

100 3.7

100.5 3

101.1 2.7

102.1 2.9

102.6 2.6

103.4 2.8

104.3 3.1

105.3 3.2

106.2 3.5

107.1 3.6

108 3.5

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

38.9 33.7

39.3 34

39.6 34.2

39.9 34.4

40.2 34.5

40.4 34.6

40.7 34.7

41.2 34.9

41.5 35

41.8 35.1

42.2 35.3

42.7 35.5

43.1 35.7

43.5 35.9

43.8 36

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

48.1 3.4

48.5 2.7

48.8 2.6

49.1 2.7

49.4 2.6

49.7 2.5

50 2.4

50.4 2.6

50.7 2.7

51.1 2.8

51.4 2.8

51.8 2.9

52.2 3

52.6 3

52.9 2.9

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

1145.3 1.7

1150 1.3

1156.5 1.1

1162.6 1.7

1167.5 1.9

1172.3 1.9

1176.8 1.8

1181.4 1.6

1186.8 1.7

1193.3 1.8

1200.8 2

1207.4 2.2

1214.1 2.3

1221.1 2.3

1228.5 2.3

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

59.9 2

60.3 1.1

60.5 0.8

60.8 1.5

61.5 2.7

62 3

62.5 3.4

62.9 3.5

63.3 2.9

63.7 2.7

64.1 2.5

64.4 2.3

64.5 1.9

64.6 1.5

64.8 1

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

1085.4 1.6

1089.7 1.3

1096 1.2

1101.8 1.8

1106 1.9

1110.3 1.9

1114.3 1.7

1118.5 1.5

1123.5 1.6

1129.6 1.7

1136.7 2

1143.1 2.2

1149.6 2.3

1156.4 2.4

1163.8 2.4

47.5 -9.4

47.6 -9.5

47.9 -3.5

48.2 1.3

48.8 2.9

49.7 4.3

50.8 6.2

52.1 8

53.4 9.4

55 10.7

57 12.1

59 13.3

61 14.3

63 14.7

64.9 14

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

213.7 0.7

214.7 0.4

215.7 1.1

216.7 1.6

217.4 1.7

218.4 1.7

219 1.5

219.3 1.2

219.8 1.1

220.6 1

221.5 1.1

222 1.2

222.6 1.2

223.5 1.3

224.7 1.5

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

44.8 143.6 25.3

45.1 143.8 25.4

45.4 144.4 25.6

45.8 144.6 25.8

46 144.6 26

46.3 145 26.2

46.5 144.9 26.4

46.7 144.5 26.5

46.9 144.3 26.7

47.2 144.4 26.9

47.5 144.7 27

47.8 144.7 27.2

48.1 145 27.4

48.4 145.5 27.6

48.7 146.2 27.8

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

25.9 1.2

25.9 1.2

26.3 1.5

26.6 2.4

26.9 3.8

27 4.3

27 2.6

27.3 2.7

27.4 2

27.3 1.2

27.3 1.1

27.5 0.9

27.5 0.5

27.5 0.9

27.5 0.8

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

92.1 1.8

92.4 2

92.9 1.5

93.3 1.9

93.4 1.4

93.5 1.2

93.6 0.8

93.4 0.1

93.3 -0.1

93.3 -0.2

93.4 -0.3

93.4 0

93.5 0.2

93.6 0.4

93.7 0.4

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

192.5 3.2

193.6 2.7

196.3 2

199.2 3.7

201.1 4.5

202.7 4.7

203.8 3.8

204.9 2.8

207.2 3

210.7 4

214.2 5.1

216.7 5.8

219.2 5.8

221.6 5.2

224.1 4.6

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

184.3 2.3

185.3 2.8

186 1.8

186 1.1

186.3 1.1

186.8 0.8

187.3 0.7

188.5 1.3

189.3 1.6

189.8 1.6

190.6 1.8

191.5 1.6

192.9 1.9

194.2 2.3

195.6 2.6

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

129.4 5.9

130.4 4.1

131.2 2.2

132 2.8

132.4 2.3

132.7 1.8

133.1 1.5

133.4 1.1

133.3 0.7

133.1 0.3

133 -0.1

132.9 -0.4

132.7 -0.4

132.6 -0.4

132.8 -0.2

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

44 -0.5

44.1 -1.8

44.2 0.8

44.4 1.4

44.5 1.1

44.6 1.1

44.6 1

44.7 0.6

44.7 0.5

44.7 0.4

44.6 -0.1

44.5 -0.4

44.5 -0.6

44.4 -0.7

44.4 -0.6

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

22.5 -1.7

22.3 -2.5

22.2 -2.8

22 -2.3

21.9 -2.7

21.7 -2.8

21.6 -2.7

21.4 -2.8

21.3 -2.7

21.1 -2.6

21 -2.5

20.9 -2.2

20.9 -1.9

20.8 -1.7

20.7 -1.4

133.6 1.7

133.5 1.5

133.4 0.5

133.4 0

133.4 -0.1

133.3 -0.1

133.5 0.1

133.6 0.2

133.8 0.3

134 0.5

134.3 0.6

134.5 0.6

134.8 0.8

135.1 0.9

135.4 0.9

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil)

105558 106183 107005 107694 108296 108877 109531 110222 111093 112116 113276 114310 115335 116378 117433

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2861.2 1.3

2869.1 1.3

2877.1 1.2

2885.8 1.2

2895 1.2

2904.5 1.2

2914.3 1.3

2924.5 1.3

2934.5 1.4

2945.3 1.4

2956.2 1.4

2966.5 1.4

2977.3 1.5

2988.1 1.5

2999.1 1.5

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

1312.1 0.7

1315.8 0.3

1320.3 0

1323.1 1

1326.6 1.1

1330.2 1.1

1334.7 1.1

1338 1.1

1341.6 1.1

1345.4 1.1

1349.2 1.1

1353.5 1.2

1359.3 1.3

1365.8 1.5

1370.6 1.6

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

8.5

8.4

8.3

8.3

8.2

8.2

8.2

8.1

8

7.9

7.8

7.6

7.5

7.3

7.1

7767 5653 2113

8364 5879 2485

9090 6061 3028

9938 6449 3489

10981 7234 3746

12007 7962 4045

13064 8705 4359

13986 9328 4659

15171 10297 4873

16486 11380 5106

17743 12403 5340

18775 13423 5352

19898 14420 5479

20825 15212 5613

21568 15725 5843

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

129


Tam pa – St. P e te r s b u rg – Cle arwate r

Annual Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

July 2012

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

78.9 5 42.9 35.9

84.9 7.6 46 38.9

91.4 7.7 49.1 42.3

98.5 7.7 52.3 46.2

102.4 4 54.1 48.4

104.8 2.3 53.6 51.2

100.2 -4.4 51.3 48.9

103.2 3 51.6 51.5

108 4.7 53.7 54.3

112 3.7 56.1 55.9

83.3 2.9

87.4 4.9

91.4 4.6

95.9 4.9

97.1 1.3

96.2 -0.9

91.8 -4.6

92.9 1.2

94.8 2.1

97 2.3

31.1 32.8

32.7 33.7

34.4 34.4

36.4 35.5

37.5 35.6

38.1 35

36.2 33.2

36.9 33.2

38.2 33.5

39.1 33.9

37.6 4.1

38.9 3.5

40.2 3.3

41.9 4.3

43.4 3.5

44.5 2.5

45.2 1.7

45.9 1.5

46.9 2.1

48.3 3

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

130

1129.8 0

1170.7 3.6

1210.5 3.4

1235.6 2.1

1234.4 -0.1

1192.8 -3.4

1122.4 -5.9

1112 -0.9

1132 1.8

1148.6 1.5

76.3 -5

76.9 0.8

77.6 0.9

78.5 1.1

75.9 -3.4

71.5 -5.8

61.9 -13.4

58.2 -6

59.2 1.8

60.1 1.6

1053.6 0.4

1093.8 3.8

1132.8 3.6

1157.1 2.1

1158.5 0.1

1121.3 -3.2

1060.5 -5.4

1053.9 -0.6

1072.8 1.8

1088.5 1.5

72.5 3.4

79.6 9.8

88.8 11.6

94.4 6.3

87.8 -7

76.4 -13

60.1 -21.3

52.9 -12.1

51.8 -2.1

47.6 -8

222 -2.8

227 2.3

234.4 3.3

236.6 0.9

235 -0.7

227.3 -3.3

210.4 -7.4

209.4 -0.5

212.8 1.6

214.4 0.7

50.4 140.6 31

50.9 144.2 31.9

52.8 149.9 31.7

54 151.9 30.7

54.3 151.7 29

52.9 146.7 27.8

47.7 137.1 25.7

45.9 138.3 25.1

45.9 141.4 25.5

45 143.8 25.4

33.7 -3.6

32.1 -4.9

31.9 -0.6

31.8 -0.2

31.8 -0.1

30.3 -4.8

27.5 -9

25.7 -6.6

25.7 -0.1

26 1.1

95.4 1.5

97 1.7

101 4.1

104.2 3.2

103.2 -0.9

98.6 -4.5

93.2 -5.5

89.4 -4.1

90.7 1.5

92.2 1.7

161.9 2.6

179.5 10.9

190.4 6

199 4.5

199 0

185.6 -6.7

173.2 -6.7

178.2 2.9

187.9 5.5

193.6 3

150.6 3.1

155.3 3.1

157.8 1.6

161.5 2.3

168.6 4.4

173 2.6

174.4 0.8

177.9 2

180.6 1.6

184.9 2.4

122.1 0.3

125.7 3

129.8 3.2

131.9 1.7

132.1 0.1

128.2 -3

122 -4.8

121.4 -0.5

124.4 2.5

129.8 4.4

49.2 -0.2

50.5 2.6

50.7 0.6

48.4 -4.5

49.1 1.4

48.9 -0.5

45.2 -7.5

44.2 -2.3

44.3 0.3

44 -0.6

19.5 2.8

19.9 2.2

20.8 4.3

21 1.2

21.1 0.4

21.9 3.9

22.7 3.7

24 5.6

22.9 -4.6

22.4 -2.2

126.6 -0.8

127.2 0.5

127.3 0.1

128.1 0.7

130.6 2

131.1 0.4

131.7 0.4

130.9 -0.6

131.7 0.6

133.4 1.3

92980.7

97871.8

103496

106914

107641

104124

100940

102113

104000

105917

2537.8 1.8

2596 2.3

2656.6 2.3

2701.9 1.7

2728.9 1

2748.9 0.7

2767.7 0.7

2794.5 1

2829.2 1.2

2864.8 1.3

1226.3 0.3

1255 2.3

1248.4 -0.5

1270.6 1.8

1305.3 2.7

1308.4 0.2

1292.8 -1.2

1289.1 -0.3

1308.4 1.5

1314.7 0.5

5.3

4.5

3.9

3.4

4.2

6.6

10.8

11.8

10.9

8.6

27939 20516 7423

27682 22556 5126

32981 27821 5160

22791 19532 3258

11550 8574 2977

9281 5280 4002

5906 3979 1927

6315 4502 1814

7327 4642 2685

8214 5781 2433

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012


Ta m pa – S t . P e t e r s b u r g – C l e a r w a t e r

Annual Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

July 2012

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

116.8 4.3 58.6 58.3

122.5 4.8 61.2 61.2

129 5.3 64.4 64.6

136.4 5.7 67.7 68.7

143.8 5.4 71.1 72.6

151.4 5.3 74.5 76.8

159 5.1 77.9 81.1

166.6 4.7 81.4 85.2

174.2 4.6 85 89.2

182.7 4.9 89 93.7

100.2 3.3

103.1 2.9

106.7 3.5

111 4

115.3 3.9

119.6 3.7

123.9 3.6

127.9 3.3

131.7 2.9

135.9 3.2

40.3 34.6

41.7 35.1

43.2 35.8

45 36.7

46.7 37.5

48.4 38.2

50 39

51.5 39.6

53.1 40.1

54.8 40.8

49.5 2.6

50.9 2.7

52.4 2.9

53.8 2.8

55.5 3

57.2 3.2

59.2 3.3

61.1 3.2

63.1 3.3

65.2 3.3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

1169.8 1.8

1190.6 1.8

1217.8 2.3

1245.1 2.2

1270.1 2

1289.8 1.6

1305.6 1.2

1320.9 1.2

1335.5 1.1

1352.7 1.3

61.7 2.6

63.5 2.9

64.6 1.7

64.7 0.2

64.4 -0.5

64 -0.5

63.7 -0.6

63.4 -0.4

63.1 -0.5

62.8 -0.5

1108.1 1.8

1127.1 1.7

1153.2 2.3

1180.4 2.4

1205.7 2.1

1225.8 1.7

1241.9 1.3

1257.5 1.3

1272.4 1.2

1289.9 1.4

49.4 3.7

54.3 10.1

62 14.1

68.6 10.6

73 6.5

76 4.2

77.6 2

78.7 1.4

80 1.7

81.2 1.5

217.9 1.6

220.3 1.1

223.2 1.3

226.9 1.7

230.1 1.4

231.9 0.8

232.6 0.3

232.9 0.1

232.6 -0.1

232.7 0

46.2 144.8 26.1

47.1 144.5 26.8

48.2 145.4 27.5

49.4 147.2 28.3

50.6 148.4 29.1

51.6 148.9 29.6

52.3 149.1 29.7

52.9 148.9 29.7

53.3 148.1 29.7

53.8 147.6 29.9

26.8 3.3

27.3 1.8

27.5 0.8

27.7 0.6

28.1 1.6

28.7 2

29.2 1.8

29.5 1.2

30 1.7

30.6 1.9

93.5 1.3

93.4 -0.1

93.6 0.3

94.1 0.6

95.3 1.2

96.2 1

97 0.8

97.5 0.6

97.9 0.4

98.6 0.7

201.7 4.2

209.2 3.7

220.4 5.3

229.7 4.2

239.9 4.4

248.9 3.8

257.5 3.4

266.3 3.4

278.6 4.6

291.9 4.8

186.6 0.9

189.5 1.6

193.6 2.1

199.8 3.2

204.7 2.5

208.2 1.7

211.2 1.4

214.1 1.4

215.4 0.6

216.2 0.4

132.6 2.1

133.2 0.5

132.8 -0.3

132.5 -0.2

132 -0.4

131.3 -0.5

130.7 -0.5

129.7 -0.8

128.7 -0.7

127.7 -0.8

44.5 1.1

44.7 0.4

44.4 -0.6

44.4 -0.1

44.6 0.4

44.7 0.3

44.8 0.2

44.9 0.2

44.9 0.1

44.9 0

21.8 -2.6

21.2 -2.7

20.8 -1.8

20.6 -1

20.5 -0.7

20.3 -0.6

20.3 -0.3

21.7 6.8

20.7 -4.5

20.8 0.5

133.4 0

133.9 0.4

135 0.8

136.1 0.9

137.6 1.1

139.4 1.3

141.1 1.2

142.3 0.9

143.5 0.9

145.2 1.2

108600

111677

115864

119917

123933

127891

131809

135646

139096

142881

2899.9 1.2

2940.1 1.4

2982.8 1.4

3027.6 1.5

3076.7 1.6

3128.6 1.7

3179.6 1.6

3230.9 1.6

3282 1.6

3333.2 1.6

1328.6 1.1

1343.6 1.1

1362.3 1.4

1384.3 1.6

1406 1.6

1426.3 1.4

1445.3 1.3

1462.2 1.2

1477.6 1.1

1494.5 1.1

8.2

8

7.4

6.7

6.2

5.9

5.6

5.4

5.4

5.3

11497 7588 3910

15846 10852 4994

20267 14695 5572

23538 16723 6814

25691 17798 7894

25810 17789 8021

25633 17619 8014

25487 17640 7847

24952 17419 7533

24725 17279 7446

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

131


Tam pa – St. P e te r s b u rg – Cle arwate r

Annual Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

July 2012

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

191.9 5 93 98.8

201.4 5 97.1 104.3

211.5 5 101.7 109.8

222.3 5.1 106.9 115.4

233.7 5.1 112.3 121.4

245.4 5 118.1 127.3

257.7 5 124.4 133.3

270.4 4.9 130.9 139.5

284.3 5.1 138.2 146.1

299.2 5.2 145.8 153.3

140.2 3.2

144.4 3

148.9 3.1

153.5 3.1

158.4 3.2

163.2 3

168.1 3

173.1 2.9

178.4 3.1

184.1 3.2

56.7 41.4

58.6 42

60.6 42.7

62.8 43.4

65 44.1

67.3 44.8

69.7 45.5

72.1 46.2

74.8 46.9

77.7 47.8

67.4 3.5

69.8 3.5

72.3 3.6

74.9 3.6

77.6 3.6

80.4 3.6

83.3 3.7

86.3 3.6

89.6 3.7

92.8 3.6

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

132

1367.4 1.1

1378.9 0.8

1395.1 1.2

1414.9 1.4

1435.7 1.5

1457.4 1.5

1481.3 1.6

1505 1.6

1530.9 1.7

1560.2 1.9

62.2 -1

61.5 -1.1

60.7 -1.3

59.8 -1.4

59 -1.3

58.2 -1.4

57.5 -1.3

56.8 -1.2

56.2 -1

55.6 -1.1

1305.2 1.2

1317.4 0.9

1334.4 1.3

1355.1 1.5

1376.7 1.6

1399.2 1.6

1423.8 1.8

1448.1 1.7

1474.6 1.8

1504.5 2

82.8 2

84.7 2.3

87.1 2.8

89.8 3.1

92.3 2.8

94.3 2.2

96.2 2

98.2 2.1

101.1 2.9

104 2.9

233.2 0.2

233.9 0.3

234.9 0.4

236.1 0.5

237.9 0.8

239.7 0.7

241.3 0.7

242.3 0.4

243.5 0.5

244.4 0.4

54.2 147.3 30.2

54.6 147.2 30.5

55 147.3 30.9

55.4 147.8 31.2

55.9 148.9 31.5

56.1 150.2 31.7

56.3 151.2 32

56.4 152 32

56.6 153 32.1

56.7 153.9 32.1

30.9 0.9

31 0.5

31.3 0.9

31.8 1.5

32.4 1.9

33.1 2.2

33.9 2.4

34.6 2.1

35.3 2.1

36.1 2.1

99.4 0.8

100.3 0.8

101.3 1

102.5 1.2

103.9 1.4

105.6 1.6

107.4 1.7

109.2 1.6

111 1.7

112.8 1.6

301.9 3.4

308 2

317.1 2.9

328.1 3.5

338 3

348.4 3.1

360.4 3.5

372.3 3.3

387.8 4.2

405.7 4.6

217.2 0.5

217.9 0.3

218.9 0.5

220.5 0.7

222.7 1

225.4 1.2

228.2 1.3

230.7 1.1

233.1 1

235.5 1

126.9 -0.6

126.7 -0.1

126.7 0

127.2 0.4

128.3 0.9

129.7 1.1

131.3 1.2

132.5 0.9

133.9 1.1

135.4 1.1

45.1 0.4

45.3 0.5

45.7 0.9

46.1 0.9

46.5 0.8

46.9 1

47.4 1

47.9 1

48.2 0.7

48.4 0.5

21.1 1.5

21.5 2.1

22 2

22.4 1.9

22.8 1.8

23.2 1.7

23.6 1.7

25.4 7.7

24.6 -3

25 1.7

146.7 1.1

148 0.9

149.3 0.9

150.5 0.8

151.8 0.8

152.9 0.8

154.1 0.8

155.1 0.7

156.1 0.7

157.1 0.7

147273

151830

156683

161680

166693

171827

177220

182938

189043

195383

3385 1.6

3436.9 1.5

3488.8 1.5

3540.8 1.5

3592.8 1.5

3645 1.5

3697.1 1.4

3749 1.4

3800.7 1.4

3852.3 1.4

1513.5 1.3

1533.2 1.3

1551.5 1.2

1571.2 1.3

1592.1 1.3

1613.7 1.4

1635.5 1.4

1657.6 1.4

1680.1 1.4

1702.5 1.3

5.2

5.1

5

4.9

4.8

4.7

4.7

4.6

4.5

4.5

25098 17875 7222

26222 19170 7052

26941 19809 7132

27491 20161 7330

27506 19935 7572

27341 19591 7749

27227 19478 7749

27372 19764 7608

27278 19779 7500

26788 19362 7426

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012


Ta m pa – S t . P e t e r s b u r g – C l e a r w a t e r

Annual Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

July 2012

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

314 5 153.1 160.8

328.9 4.8 160.2 168.7

344.6 4.8 167.4 177.2

361.3 4.8 175.2 186.1

378.3 4.7 183.3 195.1

396.4 4.8 191.7 204.8

415.1 4.7 200.4 214.7

434.3 4.6 209.6 224.7

454.4 4.6 219.3 235.1

475.7 4.7 229.6 246.1

189.4 2.9

194.6 2.7

199.8 2.7

205.4 2.8

210.9 2.7

216.6 2.7

222.3 2.6

228 2.6

233.8 2.6

239.9 2.6

80.4 48.5

83.2 49.2

86 49.9

89.1 50.6

92.1 51.3

95.3 52.1

98.6 52.8

102 53.5

105.4 54.2

109.1 55

96.1 3.5

99.4 3.5

102.8 3.4

106.4 3.5

110.1 3.5

113.8 3.4

117.7 3.4

121.7 3.4

125.9 3.5

130.2 3.4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

1582.3 1.4

1599.8 1.1

1617.5 1.1

1636.1 1.2

1654.2 1.1

1672.6 1.1

1691.4 1.1

1710.7 1.1

1730.4 1.2

1752.4 1.3

55 -1.2

54.4 -1.1

53.8 -1.1

53.3 -1

52.8 -1

52.3 -0.9

52 -0.6

51.7 -0.6

51.4 -0.6

51 -0.6

1527.3 1.5

1545.4 1.2

1563.7 1.2

1582.9 1.2

1601.4 1.2

1620.3 1.2

1639.4 1.2

1659 1.2

1679.1 1.2

1701.3 1.3

106.7 2.6

108.8 1.9

110.9 2

113.3 2.2

115.7 2.1

118.1 2.1

120.4 2

122 1.3

123.8 1.5

126 1.8

245.2 0.3

245.6 0.1

245.8 0.1

246.3 0.2

246.7 0.2

247.3 0.3

248 0.3

248.6 0.2

249.4 0.3

250.5 0.4

56.7 154.7 32

56.6 155.3 31.9

56.5 155.9 31.6

56.4 156.6 31.4

56.2 157.4 31.1

56.1 158.3 30.8

55.9 159.3 30.5

56 160.1 30.2

56.3 160.8 29.9

56.8 161.4 29.7

36.8 2.1

37.6 2.2

38.5 2.4

39.4 2.4

40.4 2.3

41.3 2.4

42.3 2.5

43.4 2.4

44.4 2.3

45.4 2.4

114.4 1.4

115.9 1.3

117.4 1.4

119.1 1.4

120.5 1.2

122 1.2

123.3 1.1

124.2 0.7

124.6 0.3

125 0.3

418 3

427.9 2.4

437.6 2.3

447.5 2.2

457.1 2.2

466.5 2.1

476.2 2.1

487 2.3

499.7 2.6

513.2 2.7

237.2 0.7

238.3 0.5

239.3 0.4

240.5 0.5

241.7 0.5

243 0.6

244.2 0.5

245.6 0.6

247.2 0.6

248.8 0.7

136.7 0.9

137.7 0.7

138.9 0.8

140 0.8

141.1 0.8

142.3 0.9

143.5 0.9

144.5 0.7

145.7 0.8

146.6 0.7

48.7 0.6

48.9 0.4

49.1 0.5

49.4 0.5

49.6 0.4

49.8 0.5

50.1 0.5

50.3 0.4

50.4 0.3

50.5 0.2

25.4 1.6

25.8 1.6

26.3 1.7

26.7 1.6

27.1 1.5

27.5 1.4

27.8 1.3

29.2 4.9

28.6 -2.1

29 1.6

158 0.6

158.9 0.6

159.8 0.5

160.7 0.6

161.6 0.6

162.5 0.6

163.4 0.6

164.4 0.6

165.3 0.6

166.2 0.6

201354

207272

213447

219980

226809

233763

241057

248669

256914

265581

3903.6 1.3

3954.8 1.3

4005.7 1.3

4056.6 1.3

4107.3 1.3

4158 1.2

4208.7 1.2

4259.5 1.2

4310.4 1.2

4361.3 1.2

1724.8 1.3

1747.1 1.3

1769.3 1.3

1791.3 1.2

1813 1.2

1834.6 1.2

1856.7 1.2

1877.8 1.1

1898.4 1.1

1918.7 1.1

4.4

4.4

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.2

4.2

4.2

4.2

4.2

26769 19467 7301

27112 19937 7175

27531 20452 7079

27792 20829 6963

27603 20804 6799

27413 20719 6694

27309 20671 6638

27167 20589 6578

27271 20781 6490

27294 20857 6437

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

133


In Appeciation

The UCF College of Business Administration would like to thank Alan C. Charron, ‘84, for his generous gift to the Institute for Economic Competitiveness. His support enables the Institute to publish this forecast and will help fund future activities and research. Charron graduated in 1984 with a degree in finance. He is president of Real Property Specialists, Inc., located in Orlando, Florida. Founded in 1992, Real Property Specialists, Inc., is a fullservice brokerage company that has built a reputation of providing highly personalized service while being responsive and flexible to its clients' individual needs. They offer a range of commercial real estate services in the Central Florida area including brokerage, appraisal, development, property management and tenant representation. Real Property Specialists, Inc., has set a new standard of excellence in client service by providing these key advantages over the competition:

Responsiveness. You work directly with a decision

maker who has the flexibility to immediately attend to your needs.

Consistency. We are a unified firm employing team-

members who are committed to the success of our clients. We pride ourselves on our ability to maintain a dedicated, professional staff that is able to build long-term, comfortable and prosperous relationships with our clients.

Accountability. At Real Property Specialists, our client is the real "Boss." We are accountable to no one other than the client. No company policy interferes with our ability to serve the individual needs of each client. Experience. The staff at Real Property Specialists is

highly qualified, with most associates having more than a decade of experience in the industry. Our personal portfolio of shopping centers gives us first-hand knowledge of what is important when leasing, managing or selling a property.

Appraisers • Brokers • Consultants 6700 Conroy-Windermere Road, Suite 230 | Orlando, FL 32835 407.291.9000 | www.realpropertyspecialists.com


Sean M. Snaith, Ph.D.

We would like to recognize the following organizations for their support of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness:


University of Central Florida College of Business Administration Institute for Economic Competitiveness P. O . B o x 1 6 1 4 0 0 , O r l a n d o , F l o r i d a 3 2 8 1 6 PH 407.823.1453

FAX 407.823.1454

w w w. i e c . u c f . e d u

Florida & Metro Forecast July 2012  

Florida & Metro Forecast July 2012

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