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Florida & Metro Forecast 2012-2042

Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida

Published July 2012

Dean’s Message Greetings! Let me begin this message by introducing myself as the new dean of the College of Business Administration.

About University of C e n t r a l F lo r i da ( U C F )

I have joined UCF from the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, where I served as dean and management professor for the past five years. Moving to Florida from Nevada has been a rather smooth transition because there are many similarities between the two states. Both states have been hit hard by the recession, were major victims of the housing crisis, had high unemployment rates, and for the first time in years, experienced a decline in tourists as well as population growth. And did I mention the heat? Not all the similarities are discouraging however. I think the biggest similarity is the people. Residents of both states have shown resiliency and continue to find ways to make it through the economic downturn. It is a slow, gradual process and we have to remain patient. In the meantime, I encourage you to continue reading the economic forecasts produced by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness. The quarterly publication contains current data and information on the economic conditions throughout the entire state.

About the College of B u s i n e s s A d m i n i s t r at i o n

One of the things that I like most about being a dean is that I get to share information as well, and communicate with people from all over. While I enjoy reaching you through these messages, I also encourage you to read my weekly blog at www.bus.ucf.edu/dean and follow me on Twitter @pauljarley to get to know me even better. What matters to you, matters to me. Please feel free to contact me on Twitter or at pjarley@bus.ucf.edu with your thoughts and suggestions. Let’s talk! Enjoy the rest of your summer,

P aul Jarley Paul Jarley Dean

Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida

F lo r i da F o r eca s t 2012 - 2042 July 2012 Report

Published quarterly by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, College of Business Administration, University of Central Florida Copyright Š 2012 Institute for Economic Competitiveness. All rights reserved.

Publications of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness are made possible by the following staff: Dr. Sean Snaith, Director Elaine Vogt, Administrative Assistant Alexandra Betrone-Harpst, Researcher Sangitha Palaniappa, Researcher Ashley Miller, Researcher Casey Moore, Researcher Nicholas Simons, Researcher This forecast was prepared based upon assumptions reflecting the Institute for Economic Competitiveness’ judgments as of the date it bears. Actual results could vary materially from the forecast. Neither the Institute for Economic Competitiveness nor the University of Central Florida shall be held responsible as a consequence of any such variance. Unless approved by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, the publication or distribution of this forecast and the preparation, publication or distribution of any excerpts from this forecast are prohibited.

TABLE OF CONTENTS Florida Highlights and Summary................................. 5-10 Florida Forecast Tables.................................................. 11-26

Ta b l e o f c o n t e n t s

Florida Forecast Charts................................................ 28-36 Florida News Summaries.................................................... 37 Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach...............39-46 Gainesville.......................................................................... 47-54 Jacksonville....................................................................... 55-62 Lakeland.............................................................................63-70 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach....................... 71-78 Naples-Marco Island......................................................79-86 Ocala....................................................................................87-94 Orlando-Kissimmee...................................................... 95-102 Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville................................103-110 Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent........................................ 111-118 Tallahassee....................................................................... 119-126 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater..........................127-135

FLORID A HIGHLIGHTS

H i g h l i g h t s o f t h e J u ly 2 0 1 2 F l o r i d a FORE C AST 2 0 1 2 -2 0 4 2 • Summertime and nothin’ is easy. At least as far as Florida’s economic recovery goes. • Job creation in Florida is darkened by the same “50 Shades of Gray” that are casting a pall over the national labor market. • Payroll job growth year-over-year is expected to average 1.1% in 2012, 1.9% in 2013, 1.8% in 2014 and 2.4% in 2015. It will be the 4th quarter of 2016 before payrolls recover to their pre-recession levels. • Unemployment will remain obstinately high; it will finally fall below 8% in the fourth quarter of 2014. • Unemployment rates, while high, will continue a long, slow, decline. The emphasis is still on slow as labor force growth will put a floor beneath the unemployment rate. It will be 2016 Q2 before we see unemployment fall below 7%. • The sectors expected to have the strongest average growth rates during 2012-2015 are Construction (6.4%); Professional and Business Services (4.1 %); Trade, Transportation & Utilities (3.1 %); Manufacturing (2.0%) and Information (1.8 %). • Florida’s housing construction sector bottomed out in 2009 and wallowed in that trough for two years. Housing starts will continue their climb this year and begin a slow acceleration in the next. Total starts at an annual rate will be 165.2 thousand in the 4th quarter of 2015. • At no point during the 30-year forecast horizon will housing starts climb to more than 74% of the peak levels of starts during the housing boom. The new post housing bubble peak occurs in 2026. • Real Gross State Product (RGSP) will expand by 1.9% in 2012, and growth will accelerate to 2.6% in 2013, 2.9% in 2014, and 3.8% in 2015. • Real personal income growth turned positive in 2010 after two years of contraction. From 2012-2015, real personal income growth will average 3.2%, and will peak at 3.8% in 2015. • Florida’s population growth will continue its gradual recovery in 2012 to 1.2% and accelerate over the next several years. By 2015 the growth rate should hit 1.7% as repairs of the damage from the housing and financial crises progress and the Baby Boomer retiree flow are jump-started. • 2012 retail sales should finish much stronger for the year growing 5.7% but ease into 2013 as consumers are still nursing their housing wounds. Retail sales will grow at an average pace of 4.1% during 2013-2015. Institute for Economic Competitiveness

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Florida Summary

Outlo o k f or Flor i da 2012 -2 0 1 5

Summertime and Nothin’ is Easy The nation is now in the fourth year of the recovery that followed the Great Recession. Florida is two and a half years into its recovery that began in 2010. Being in recovery beats being in recession, but the nature of the recovery nationally and in Florida leaves much to be desired.

In the July issue of the U.S. Forecast we discussed the “Fifty Shades of Gray” underneath which the U.S. economic recovery is unfolding. The gray is both a play on the novel title and metaphor alluding to the clouds of economic policy and other uncertainty that are weighing down on the national economy. Despite being the Sunshine state, this same pall of gray weighs on the recovery in Florida as well.

The story of this business cycle in Florida is wellknown and often repeated, but can never be overstated. The once in a lifetime housing boom that fueled the state’s economic growth was so pronounced that when it went bust, the fallout was so severe and the damage so profound that we knew recovery was going to be, even under the best of circumstances, daunting. Unfortunately, this recovery is not taking place under the best of circumstances. In fact, our own national economic policies have either failed us or have made the walls of this deep hole that we find ourselves in more slippery and difficult to get a solid foothold, preventing the economy from gaining traction. Sorry, I don’t mean to be such a summer bummer.

There are, however, continuing signs that we are making some progress in the economic recovery. The unemployment rate has declined from its peak, jobs are being created, albeit sporadically and sparsely, sales tax revenues have been surprisingly to the upside, and there are signs of life in a housing market that has been flat lined for too long. 6

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

The further you look beyond the summer and into the forecast horizon, the brighter the outlook becomes. Payroll job growth more than doubles from 2011 to 2015. Real Gross State Product growth nearly triples over the same time period. Population growth rates increase by nearly 50% from 2011 to 2015 and the housing market makes like Lazarus as housing starts increase by over 350%. Look way out to the end of the 30 year horizon of this month’s annual forecast at Florida in 2042 and what you’ll see is Florida transformed into a powerful economy. GSP is expected to be nearly $3.4 trillion, or 4.39 times the size of the economy in 2011. If the economy were that big today, Florida would be the world’s 5th largest economy, behind Germany and ahead of France, Brazil, the UK, and Italy.

Payroll jobs in 2042 are expected to number 11.4 million, or 4.2 million more jobs than in 2011. The structure of the economy is expected to change as well. The employment shares of Leisure and Hospitality, Government, and Retail Trade all decline by 2.5% or more. The share of Professional and Business Services grows by nearly 12%.

Florida’s population in 2042 is expected to be 30.6 million. That’s 10.7 more Floridians than in 2011. I sure hope the jet pack has made it on the scene by then, or I-4 and I-95 will be the 10th layer of Dante’s Inferno. Looking ahead to the future of Florida’s economy helps disperse the gray that currently hovers over the economy and reveals a sunnier economic future. However, for the approximately 1.58 million Floridians who are unemployed, underemployed, discouraged workers or marginally attached to the labor force it’s, in the lyrics of Bananarama, just another cruel, cruel summer.

Gr o ss State P r o d uc t Real Gross State Product (GSP) in Florida, the statelevel analogue to Real GDP, exited from recession and entered a recovery in 2010. Growth was modest that year at 1.4% and remained modest for 2011, with full year growth coming in at just 1.3%.

Florida Summary

In 2012, we expect the economy to continue to grow at an improved but still subpar rate of 1.9%.

The burden of lost housing wealth that Florida’s consumers have to overcome is considerably higher than consumers in most states around the nation. Other burdens include persistently higher levels of unemployment and underemployment rates, and insufficient job creation to date. However, as 2012 gives way to 2013 and beyond, the economy will begin to grow more rapidly.

Real GDP growth in 2013 is expected to come in at 2.6% after which growth will accelerate to 2.9% in 2014 and 3.8% in 2015. Nominal Gross State Product is expected to reach nearly $915.8 billion in 2015, as Florida continues to progress toward becoming a trillion-dollar economy. The state will likely cross that threshold five years from now in 2017. Florida’s economy is one of the largest in the world and is expected to grow even larger in the years ahead as noted above.

P erso n a l I n c o m e , Retai l Sales, a n d Au to Sa l e s Personal income growth year-over-year decelerated in the second half of 2011 and into the first half of 2012 in Florida. It increased nearly 5.5% in the 1st quarter of 2011 and 5.0% in the 2nd quarter. The deceleration continued in the 2nd half of the year with growth of 4.4% and 4.1% in the 3rd and 4th quarters respectively. In the first half of 2012 growth appears to have stabilized at 3.2%. Looking forward, we expect that growth will accelerate and average 4.4% in the final half of 2012, for a full year average growth rate of 3.8%. In 2013 personal income growth will continue to accelerate and grow at 4.4%, then 5.0% in 2014 and 5.7% in 2015. Personal income growth in Florida lagged behind that of the nation as a whole during 2007-2011. In 2012, the positions were reversed and Florida outpaces the nation with personal income growth that is an average of 0.6% higher than the nation through 2015. Personal income will reach nearly $907 billion in 2015 - a year that will boast the highest growth since 2006.

Real disposable income growth, which also has been suppressed by the besieged economy, increased to just 1.4% in 2010, but this was the first growth since 2006. The growth rate eased in 2011 to 1.0%, but should see acceleration from here. In 2012, growth should come in at 1.9%, rise to 2.5% in 2013, 2.9% in 2014 and 3.7% in 2015. The stock market and bond market have made a strong recovery from the lows of the financial crisis, recovering aggregate financial wealth lost during the financial crisis. Sentiment has turned more bullish the past several years, but the stock market is still not fully back at the pre-recession, pre-crisis highs. The housing market nationally and in Florida has had no such run of luck, and housing prices still seem to be struggling to find a firm and solid bottom. Consumers have little choice when it comes to trying to rebuild their depleted home equity wealth other than to save more of their income and to try to put back together shattered nest eggs. This negative wealth effect will continue to dampen consumer spending in Florida and the U.S. Florida’s persistently high unemployment and underemployment will continue to weigh on consumer spending in Florida as well. As the labor market shifts into a mode where private sector job creation shows greater momentum, it will further help lift consumer confidence and spending. A consumer with a job is a consumer who is willing to spend more freely. New hiring and job security for the currently employed, however, will help to unleash even more of the pentup consumer spending that was postponed during the several years of layoffs and other cost cutting measures by businesses.

High and volatile oil and gasoline prices impacted Florida’s consumers and economy in 2011, and they continue to do so. Gasoline prices pulled back from the $4.00 a gallon mark, a level that, in the spring, many analysts believed would be penetrated this summer. But the decline in prices was partially reversed as soon as fear of military action in the Persian Gulf began once again to mount. Rising gasoline prices impact consumers like a tax that pulls money from their wallet (and thus other sectors of the economy), and into their Institute for Economic Competitiveness

7

Florida Summary

tanks. They can also suppress consumer confidence, another channel through which high gasoline prices can reduce consumer spending. Despite this energy wildcard, retail sales in Florida will grow at 5.67% in 2012. Once the labor market has fully cleared the starting gate, it’s still admittedly long path to recovery, retail spending will continue to grow. We expect retail sales to expand an average of 4.5% in 2012-2015. The average growth rate of retail sales will be nearly 5.4% during the 2012-2014 time frames. Although retail sales growth is not expected to reach the levels experienced during the height of the housing and economic boom, it should continue to help to partially alleviate the budget woes in Tallahassee in 2012 and 2013. As the economy continues to grow, consumers’ pentup demand and replacement needs for automobiles and light trucks continues to be released. 2010 was the start of a six year period of growth in the number of new passenger car and truck registrations in Florida. Growth will be robust during 2012-2015, averaging nearly 11%. In 2015, registrations will reach 1.34 million, representing a 192% increase from the 2009 nadir, but still not reaching the peak level of registrations during the height of the housing boom.

Employm e n t Overall payroll employment in the state grew 1.1% for 2011. This was the first year of growth after three long years of payroll contraction. Payroll job growth appears to have taken root in 2011 and growth has continued into 2012. These roots are not yet deep enough to inspire that Florida’s jobs tree is sturdy. Job growth has been tepid and wobbly in the first half of 2012 but it should gain some momentum in the second half. In 2013 job growth versus a year ago is expected to come in at 1.9%. This year will also mark the first time since 2006 that job growth in Florida exceeds the national rate of job growth. Payroll job growth will hover around this rate in 2014 but will accelerate to 2.4% in 2015. The beleaguered Construction sector still has the rest 8

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

of this year with year over year job losses before it too joins in the labor market’s recovery, the final private sector to do so. This sector has been shedding jobs profusely after peaking during the housing boom – 384 thousand jobs to date -and it will be six straight years of job losses before the job recovery in the construction sector gets underway.

Job growth will return to the Construction sector in the 1st quarter of 2013. Job growth rates are expected to surge from -2.9% in 2012 to 3.7% in 2013, 10.4% in 2014, and to an eye-popping 14.3% in 2015. These yearly growth rates yield an average growth rate of 6.1% over 2012-2015. These growth rates at first glance appear to be quite large but are being calculated from a dramatically lower base of employment in the sector. By the end of 2015, employment in this sector should be back at levels previously reached in 1997. It will be 2031 before employment in the Construction sector returns to its pre-recession, pre-housing crisis peak levels.

After the Construction sector’s phoenix display, the Professional and Business Services sector will be the state’s fastest growing sector through 2015. Job growth in this sector is expected to lead the state averaging 4.1% during 2012-2015. Job gains have been heaviest in the employment services segment as businesses take this intermediate step to hiring their own employees. By the fourth quarter of 2012 job growth in the sector will be 2.2%. For the full year, 2012 will see job growth at 2.0% and it will accelerate and reach 4.4% in 2013, 4.1% in 2014, and 5.8% in 2015. This sector will recover quickly and will get back to pre-recession peak levels of employment before the end of the 3rd quarter of 2014.

The Information sector shed jobs through most of 2011. Employment stabilized, but growth has stagnated in 2012 thus far, though it is expected to expand in the 2nd half of 2012. Structural changes in this industry since the bursting of the dot com bubble, fueled by technological evolution in the publishing, news, and telecommunications, have resulted in a long downward trend in the sector.

Job growth should return to the Information sector year over year in 2012 and this may mark the beginning of a reversal of that downward trend. Job growth

Florida Summary

will be quite modest in 2012 at 0.6% as the recovery cautiously emerges and averages 1.8% in 2012-2015. Not earth shattering growth, but far better than the average growth rate of -4.5% of the preceding 4 years.

The sector that generated jobs throughout the recession and that is expected to continue to expand through the end of 2015 is the Health and Education sector. During 2012-2015, employment in this sector is expected to expand at an average rate of 1.7%. Budget woes will likely constrain employment levels on the education side of the sector as schools face significant revenue constraints due to the housing sector’s slow convalescence. Healthcare reform continues to be a source of uncertainty but with an aging population and expanded insurance coverage, demand for health services will fuel job growth.

Manufacturing employment expanded weakly in Florida in 2011 at 0.8%. Globalization and productivity gains in manufacturing have reduced employment in this sector for the better part of a decade. The sector is emerging from this period of globalization as competitive as it has been in many years, but the longer run trends will continue to put pressure on the sector. We are expecting to see job growth of 1.3% in this sector for the full year in 2012, followed by stronger years of job growth in 2013 and 2014, when manufacturing employment will expand at a rate of 2.4% and 2.8%. For the first time in over two decades, and likely the last time for a decade or more, manufacturing is expected to gain jobs in five consecutive years, as 2015 job growth is expected to be 1.6%.

Un em p loym e n t Unemployment rates nationally and in Florida remain at persistently high levels, despite the fact that the national recession came to an end in June of 2009 and in Florida it ended in 2010. Real Gross State Product has been growing since the 1st quarter of 2010, but the pace of that growth has been weak and is likely to persist through 2012. Average real GSP growth from 2010 through 2012 is expected to be just 1.5%. This level of growth does not rapidly bring

down unemployment and it pales in comparison to the rate of growth in the previous recovery. Despite the slow economic recovery, the unemployment rate has been in decline since 2010 Q4, but the magnitude of these declines has been exaggerated by a shrinking labor force, as has been the case with the national rate of unemployment. As that trend reverses itself and discouraged workers reenter the labor force, the task of bringing down the unemployment rate will become an increasingly difficult and protracted proposition.

Unemployment, which stood at 8.6% in the 2nd quarter of 2012, will remain above 8% through the 4th quarter of 2014. Unemployment will continue its slow decline and it will continue to fall through the end of 2015. By the end of 2015, unemployment will still be uncomfortably high at 7.4%.

Payroll job growth, as it gains momentum beginning in 2013, will trigger the reentry of discouraged workers who had previously abandoned the job search. This source of growth in the labor force, which has not yet fully materialized as Florida’s labor force has only recently shown weak growth in 2012, will make the reduction in the unemployment rate a more challenging and prolonged process. These levels of unemployment, although on a downward trend, are still quite high. In fact, we do not expect to see unemployment in Florida fall below 6.0% again until 2019.

The problem of underemployment and marginally attached workers– those who are neither working nor looking for work, but indicate that they want and are available for a job, and have looked for work sometime in the past twelve months— and those who have given up searching for a job entirely, is a substantial one. When adding these workers to the top level unemployment figure, this broader measure of unemployment, known as U-6, paints an even grimmer picture of labor markets, and is currently 17.0% through the 2nd quarter of 2012 in Florida, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

9

n & Health loyment

s)

July 2012

Ta b l e s

2026 2030 2034 2038 2042

F l o r i d a FORE C A ST

F l o r i d a S u m m a r y Ta b l e s Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

508.4

531.2

582.8

633.2

690.3

Florida (%Ch)

4.3

4.5

9.7

8.7

9.0

721.1

740.7

697.3

719.8

4.5

2.7

-5.8

U.S.(%Ch)

2.0

3.5

6.0

5.5

3.2

7.5

5.7

4.6

-4.2

548.0

561.2

600.0

3.7

633.1

671.9

683.5

679.9

638.8

647.8

Florida (%Ch)

2.9

2.4

U.S.(%Ch)

3.8

2.5

6.9

5.5

6.1

1.7

-0.5

-6.0

1.4

10.1

4.3

7.6

-4.6

-0.6

-13.7

491.9

511.0

543.2

9.2

564.1

598.6

609.0

617.2

589.9

598.2

Florida (%Ch)

5.2

3.9

6.3

3.9

6.1

1.7

1.3

-4.4

1.4

U.S.(%Ch)

3.8

2.5

10.1

4.3

7.6

-4.6

-0.6

-13.7

9.2

535.9

573.7

621.3

680.3

730.2

759.6

747.8

732.8

747.7

5.8

7.0

8.3

9.5

7.4

4.0

-1.5

-2.0

2.0

582.7

609.6

641.0

680.3

706.6

714.0

689.9

664.1

673.4

(%Ch)

3.5

4.6

5.2

6.1

3.9

1.1

-3.4

-3.7

1.4

Employment

0.0

1.7

3.0

3.8

3.3

3.0

-2.2

-6.0

Labor Force

1.1

1.3

2.3

2.9

2.8

3.7

0.2

-1.7

0.7

FL Unemployment Rate (%)

5.7

5.3

4.7

3.8

3.3

4.0

6.3

10.4

11.3

U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

5.8

6.0

5.5

5.1

4.6

4.6

5.8

9.3

9.6

-0.7

Personal Income and GSP Personal Income (Bil. $)

Personal Income (Bil. 2005$)

Disp. Income (Bil. 2005$)

GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch) GSP (Bil. 2005$)

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change) -0.3

Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) Total Nonfarm U.S. Florida Mining Construction

-1.1

-0.3

1.1

1.7

1.8

1.1

-0.6

-4.4

0.1

1.1

3.4

4.0

2.6

0.3

-3.5

-6.3

-0.8

-12.8

-1.2

0.2

-0.8

-6.5

1.6

-7.8

-11.5

-0.5

1.1

3.8

9.3

11.3

7.1

-8.7

-17.2

-23.1

-11.3

Manufacturing

-5.8

-4.3

0.2

1.2

0.3

-4.2

-7.0

-12.7

-4.5

Nondurable Goods

-3.6

-3.3

-2.1

-1.8

-2.0

-1.5

-6.2

-10.0

-3.6

Durable Goods

-6.9

-4.8

1.4

2.6

1.4

-5.4

-7.4

-14.0

-4.9

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

-2.8

-3.2

1.6

3.8

1.4

0.1

-2.1

-6.7

-2.0

Wholesale Trade

-0.2

0.5

3.3

4.1

2.9

1.5

-3.1

-8.0

-2.9

Retail Trade

-1.2

-0.3

2.8

4.1

2.0

1.3

-2.9

-6.6

0.2

Financial Activities

1.2

2.2

3.8

5.0

3.1

-1.0

-4.6

-7.4

-1.9

Prof. and Business Services

0.3

1.6

6.1

7.4

4.4

0.7

-6.3

-8.2

1.3

Edu & Health Services

2.7

3.7

2.9

2.5

2.7

3.1

2.1

1.2

1.9

Leisure & Hospitality

0.4

1.7

4.2

2.6

1.5

2.0

-1.4

-4.5

0.5 -4.6

Information

-5.7

-3.8

-2.0

0.2

-0.9

-0.3

-3.4

-8.6

Federal Gov't.

0.4

3.3

0.4

1.5

-0.7

0.2

1.4

2.2

7.2

State & Local Gov't.

1.7

1.1

1.4

1.4

2.0

2.4

0.2

-1.6

-1.2

Population and Migration Population (thous) (%Ch)

16727.1 17060.8 17468.8 17875.7 18184.1 18385.1 18540.8 18682.0 18870.3 2.0

2.0

2.4

2.3

1.7

1.1

0.8

0.8

1.0

71.2

79.9

92.9

78.8

48.3

29.4

21.0

26.9

38.7

0.9

13.1

18.4

-15.0

-40.5

-34.6

-29.1

43.7

58.5

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous)

181.8

207.6

239.2

271.5

203.3

101.5

61.6

33.7

38.1

Housing Starts Single Family (thous)

133.2

160.2

183.0

210.7

156.2

75.2

40.9

26.8

31.7

48.6

47.4

56.2

60.9

47.1

26.2

20.7

6.9

6.4

1.7

2.7

2.9

4.2

-0.2

1.2

Net Migration (thous) (%Ch)

Housing

Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

Consumer Prices (%Ch)

4.6

4.1

3.4

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

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F l o r i d a S u m m a r y Ta b l e s Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

754.0

782.7

817.4

858.3

907.0

963.2

Florida (%Ch)

4.8

3.8

4.4

5.0

5.7

6.2

U.S.(%Ch)

5.0

3.2

3.9

4.5

4.9

662.3

677.8

701.1

722.5

Florida (%Ch)

2.2

2.3

3.4

U.S.(%Ch)

6.0

4.7

5.3

604.4

616.0

Florida (%Ch)

1.0

U.S.(%Ch)

6.0 766.4

2017

2018

2019

2020

1018.1

1074.3

1130.8

1186.3

5.7

5.5

5.3

4.9

5.0

4.4

4.4

4.2

4.2

749.9

783.9

816.7

848.9

881.0

911.2

3.1

3.8

4.5

4.2

4.0

3.8

3.4

6.1

6.0

4.1

4.2

5.1

5.1

5.1

631.2

649.3

673.1

702.7

731.9

759.8

787.8

813.7

1.9

2.5

2.9

3.7

4.4

4.1

3.8

3.7

3.3

4.7

5.3

6.1

6.0

4.1

4.2

5.1

5.1

5.1

793.4

825.8

864.9

915.8

966.2

1016.0

1066.3

1116.5

1167.3

Personal Income and GSP Personal Income (Bil. $)

Personal Income (Bil. 2005$)

Disp. Income (Bil. 2005$)

GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch)

2.5

3.5

4.1

4.7

5.9

5.5

5.2

4.9

4.7

4.6

682.2

695.1

713.0

733.6

761.7

789.2

815.9

841.7

866.9

891.8

(%Ch)

1.3

1.9

2.6

2.9

3.8

3.6

3.4

3.2

3.0

2.9

Employment

2.2

3.0

1.7

1.3

1.8

2.0

1.9

1.8

1.7

1.4

Labor Force

1.3

1.0

1.3

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.5

1.5

1.4

1.4

10.5

8.7

8.4

8.2

7.6

7.0

6.6

6.3

6.0

5.9

9.0

8.1

7.9

7.6

7.1

6.6

6.3

6.0

5.9

5.7

0.8

GSP (Bil. 2005$)

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change)

FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) Total Nonfarm U.S.

1.2

1.4

1.3

1.4

1.6

1.6

1.3

1.0

0.8

Florida

1.1

1.1

1.9

1.8

2.4

2.4

2.1

1.6

1.3

1.2

4.0

-0.1

-0.2

-3.2

-1.7

-0.9

-1.6

-2.5

-3.1

-2.7

Mining Construction

-5.8

-2.9

3.7

10.4

14.3

11.4

7.1

4.2

1.9

1.3

Manufacturing

0.8

1.3

2.4

2.8

1.6

0.2

-0.5

-0.5

-0.6

-0.4

Nondurable Goods

0.2

0.4

0.0

-0.6

-1.0

-1.0

-0.7

-0.6

-0.8

-0.7

Durable Goods

1.1

1.8

3.6

4.5

2.9

0.8

-0.4

-0.4

-0.5

-0.3

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

2.8

2.8

3.2

3.0

3.4

3.6

3.6

2.2

0.7

0.1

Wholesale Trade

0.0

1.0

2.8

2.2

2.8

2.7

2.8

2.0

1.3

1.2

Retail Trade

2.4

1.6

0.8

0.0

0.9

1.5

0.9

0.5

0.3

0.0

Financial Activities

1.4

1.6

1.4

0.0

0.3

0.5

1.3

1.1

0.9

0.6

Prof. and Business Services

3.6

2.0

4.4

4.1

5.8

4.5

4.4

3.8

3.5

3.6

Edu & Health Services

2.3

1.6

1.3

1.8

2.0

3.0

2.4

1.8

1.7

1.6

Leisure & Hospitality

2.3

2.4

2.2

0.5

-0.3

-0.2

-0.4

-0.4

-0.3

-0.6

Information

-1.2

0.6

3.5

2.0

1.3

1.0

1.8

2.0

1.8

1.3

Federal Gov't.

-5.5

-1.6

-2.6

-2.7

-1.8

-1.0

-0.7

-0.6

-0.3

7.2

State & Local Gov't.

-0.7

-0.8

-0.2

0.4

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.3

1.0

Population and Migration Population (thous) (%Ch)

19085.2 19316.8 19582.1 19885.9 20221.4 20570.8 20929.4 21296.9 21667.9 22040.5 1.1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.8

1.7

1.7

Net Migration (thous)

44.5

48.8

56.1

64.3

69.5

71.5

73.3

74.8

74.8

74.7

(%Ch)

19.2

9.6

15.0

14.7

8.1

2.9

2.5

2.0

0.0

-0.1

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous)

43.6

57.7

82.7

116.1

154.1

179.4

194.0

194.1

193.0

191.0

Housing Starts Single Family (thous)

32.7

40.3

54.5

79.5

109.2

123.6

129.4

128.7

127.9

127.7

Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

10.9

17.4

28.2

36.7

44.9

55.8

64.6

65.5

65.1

63.3

3.1

1.6

1.3

2.4

1.5

1.7

1.7

1.5

Housing

Consumer Prices (%Ch) 12

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

2.0

1.7

F l o r i d a S u m m a r y Ta b l e s Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

1242.3

1304.5

1371.8

1442.4

1516.6

1594.8

Florida (%Ch)

4.7

5.0

5.2

5.1

5.1

5.2

U.S.(%Ch)

4.0

4.2

4.4

4.6

4.6

939.1

970.4

1002.5

1034.4

Florida (%Ch)

3.1

3.3

3.3

U.S.(%Ch)

5.1

5.5

5.1

837.7

864.4

Florida (%Ch)

2.9

U.S.(%Ch)

5.1 1216.9

2027

2028

2029

2030

1678.3

1763.6

1852.9

1945.6

5.2

5.1

5.1

5.0

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

1067.4

1101.4

1137.4

1172.7

1209.0

1245.2

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.3

3.1

3.1

3.0

4.7

4.5

4.3

4.5

4.5

4.4

4.6

891.1

917.6

946.0

973.7

1004.7

1034.7

1063.6

1093.4

3.2

3.1

3.0

3.1

2.9

3.2

3.0

2.8

2.8

5.5

5.1

4.7

4.5

4.3

4.5

4.5

4.4

4.6

1271.8

1333.4

1398.1

1467.5

1540.6

1616.0

1694.9

1779.2

1869.1

Personal Income and GSP Personal Income (Bil. $)

Personal Income (Bil. 2005$)

Disp. Income (Bil. 2005$)

GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch)

4.3

4.5

4.8

4.9

5.0

5.0

4.9

4.9

5.0

5.1

913.8

938.2

966.8

996.5

1028.1

1060.4

1092.9

1126.0

1160.7

1197.2

(%Ch)

2.5

2.7

3.0

3.1

3.2

3.1

3.1

3.0

3.1

3.2

Employment

1.3

1.3

1.5

1.5

1.4

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

Labor Force

1.3

1.3

1.4

1.4

1.3

1.4

1.4

1.5

1.5

1.5

FL Unemployment Rate (%)

5.9

5.9

5.8

5.7

5.6

5.5

5.5

5.4

5.3

5.2

U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

5.7

5.6

5.5

5.5

5.4

5.3

5.2

5.2

5.1

5.0

1.1

GSP (Bil. 2005$)

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change)

Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) Total Nonfarm U.S.

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.7

0.8

1.0

1.0

1.0

Florida

1.1

1.3

1.1

0.9

1.2

1.5

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.6

-2.1

-1.1

-1.0

-1.9

-2.0

-1.6

-1.4

-1.0

-0.5

-0.3

Mining Construction

1.5

1.3

1.8

2.2

2.7

3.0

2.6

2.1

1.9

2.0

Manufacturing

-0.5

-0.5

-1.0

-1.1

-1.3

-1.4

-1.3

-1.4

-1.3

-1.2

Nondurable Goods

-0.7

-0.9

-1.3

-1.4

-1.3

-1.2

-1.1

-1.1

-1.1

-1.2

Durable Goods

-0.4

-0.3

-0.9

-1.0

-1.2

-1.5

-1.4

-1.5

-1.4

-1.2

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

0.5

0.6

1.2

1.5

1.5

1.3

1.0

0.9

1.2

0.4

Wholesale Trade

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.9

0.4

0.5

0.3

-0.4

-0.2

-0.1

0.1

0.3

0.4

0.9

1.0

0.8

0.7

Financial Activities

0.4

0.7

0.8

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.3

1.6

1.6

1.6

Prof. and Business Services

4.8

4.9

3.6

2.2

3.1

3.6

3.2

3.3

3.7

3.5

Retail Trade

Edu & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't.

0.8

0.6

0.6

0.5

0.7

0.9

1.2

1.4

1.5

1.3

-0.6

-0.7

-0.6

-0.1

0.1

0.4

0.9

1.2

1.3

1.0

1.8

2.0

1.0

0.5

0.9

1.4

1.9

2.2

2.4

2.0

-4.3

0.5

1.6

2.2

2.1

2.0

1.9

1.9

1.8

7.8

1.0

1.3

1.2

1.0

1.0

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.8

Population and Migration Population (thous) (%Ch)

22414.9 22792.3 23174.4 23558.8 23945.0 24332.8 24722.7 25114.6 25507.2 25899.9 1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.5

74.8

75.4

76.1

76.3

76.4

76.5

76.6

76.7

76.8

76.9

0.2

0.8

1.0

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.2

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous)

185.6

182.5

184.1

191.3

195.7

198.9

198.3

196.5

195.1

195.4

Housing Starts Single Family (thous)

125.3

123.4

126.9

135.2

138.9

140.5

138.1

134.8

133.2

134.4

60.3

59.1

57.2

56.0

56.8

58.3

60.2

61.8

61.9

61.0

1.7

1.8

1.8

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.1

2.1

Net Migration (thous) (%Ch)

Housing

Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

Consumer Prices (%Ch)

2.0

2.0

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

13

F l o r i d a S u m m a r y Ta b l e s Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2046.0

2153.9

2262.4

2373.1

2490.1

2614.0

Florida (%Ch)

5.2

5.3

5.0

4.9

4.9

5.0

U.S.(%Ch)

4.5

4.4

4.3

4.4

4.5

1283.8

1325.3

1365.1

1403.7

Florida (%Ch)

3.1

3.2

3.0

U.S.(%Ch)

4.6

4.6

4.5

1126.3

1160.8

Florida (%Ch)

3.0

U.S.(%Ch)

4.6 1966.5

2037

2038

2039

2040

2740.3

2875.3

3014.8

3157.7

4.8

4.9

4.9

4.7

4.5

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.3

1444.0

1486.2

1527.5

1571.1

1614.7

1657.8

2.8

2.9

2.9

2.8

2.9

2.8

2.7

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.5

4.6

1193.6

1226.2

1260.0

1295.4

1330.1

1366.8

1403.5

1439.6

3.1

2.8

2.7

2.8

2.8

2.7

2.8

2.7

2.6

4.6

4.5

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.5

4.6

2068.8

2170.6

2275.4

2386.0

2503.2

2627.0

2756.4

2894.0

3039.3

Personal Income and GSP Personal Income (Bil. $)

Personal Income (Bil. 2005$)

Disp. Income (Bil. 2005$)

GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch)

5.2

5.2

4.9

4.8

4.9

4.9

4.9

4.9

5.0

5.0

1236.3

1276.6

1314.8

1352.6

1392.1

1433.8

1477.3

1521.6

1568.1

1616.8

(%Ch)

3.3

3.3

3.0

2.9

2.9

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.1

3.1

Employment

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.4

1.4

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.3

Labor Force

1.5

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.3

FL Unemployment Rate (%)

5.2

5.1

5.1

5.0

5.0

5.0

5.0

5.0

5.0

5.0

U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

5.0

4.9

4.9

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.7

0.9

GSP (Bil. 2005$)

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change)

Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) Total Nonfarm U.S.

0.8

0.8

0.7

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.9

0.9

0.9

Florida

1.8

1.9

1.5

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

0.0

0.2

-0.3

-0.8

-1.0

-0.8

-0.7

-0.8

-1.1

-1.4

Mining Construction

2.7

2.8

2.5

1.8

1.8

2.0

2.0

2.0

1.9

1.2

Manufacturing

-1.0

-1.1

-1.2

-1.1

-1.1

-1.0

-1.0

-0.9

-0.6

-0.6

Nondurable Goods

-1.1

-1.0

-1.0

-1.0

-1.0

-1.1

-1.0

-0.9

-0.9

-1.0

Durable Goods

-1.0

-1.1

-1.3

-1.1

-1.1

-0.9

-0.9

-0.8

-0.4

-0.5

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

0.5

0.2

0.1

-0.3

-0.5

-0.6

-0.8

-0.7

-0.7

-0.7

Wholesale Trade

0.4

0.3

0.1

-0.1

-0.1

0.0

-0.1

-0.2

-0.1

0.2

Retail Trade

0.8

0.7

0.7

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.7

Financial Activities

1.6

1.6

1.4

1.2

1.3

1.3

1.2

1.2

1.1

0.6

Prof. and Business Services

4.4

4.8

3.2

2.6

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.3

2.5

Edu & Health Services

1.2

1.2

0.9

0.7

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.8

0.7

0.8

Leisure & Hospitality

1.2

1.2

1.1

0.8

1.0

0.9

0.9

1.0

1.0

0.8

Information

2.0

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.3

2.4

2.4

-2.6

1.8

1.7

1.7

1.8

1.7

1.6

1.6

1.4

5.1

0.8

0.8

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't.

Population and Migration Population (thous) (%Ch)

26292.6 26685.2 27077.9 27470.6 27863.3 28256.3 28650.0 29044.9 29441.3 29839.1 1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.4

77.0

77.1

77.2

77.3

77.4

77.5

77.6

77.7

77.8

77.9

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.2

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous)

194.0

189.9

189.0

190.7

192.8

193.9

191.8

189.8

188.4

186.9

Housing Starts Single Family (thous)

133.8

130.0

129.9

132.3

135.1

136.9

135.9

134.5

133.4

132.1

60.3

59.9

59.1

58.3

57.8

57.0

55.9

55.3

55.0

54.8

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.1

2.2

2.2

2.2

Net Migration (thous) (%Ch)

Housing

Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

Consumer Prices (%Ch) 14

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

2.2

2.1

F l o r i d a S u m m a r y Ta b l e s Table 2. Quarterly Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida* 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4

Personal Income and GSP Personal Income (Bil. $)

768.9

777.3

787.6

797.2

805.0

813.3

821.4

830.1

843.1

852.3

863.2

874.6

888.2

900.5

913.1

926.2

Florida (%Ch)

3.2

3.2

4.1

4.7

4.7

4.6

4.3

4.1

4.7

4.8

5.1

5.4

5.4

5.7

5.8

5.9

U.S.(%Ch)

2.9

2.9

3.2

3.9

3.9

4.1

3.9

3.7

4.3

4.3

4.6

4.8

4.7

4.9

4.9

4.9

666.6

673.4

682.3

688.9

693.7

699.4

703.5

707.9

715.1

719.0

724.7

731.2

739.2

746.2

753.3

761.0

Personal Income (Bil. 2005$) Florida (%Ch)

0.9

1.6

3.1

3.7

4.1

3.9

3.1

2.8

3.1

2.8

3.0

3.3

3.4

3.8

4.0

4.1

U.S.(%Ch)

4.0

4.0

5.1

5.6

5.4

5.6

5.1

4.9

5.2

5.9

6.4

6.9

6.8

6.4

5.8

5.1

607.2

612.8

619.7

624.3

626.0

629.2

632.6

636.8

642.1

646.2

651.5

657.6

662.8

669.6

676.6

683.6

Florida(%Ch)

Disp. Income (Bil. 2005$)

0.7

1.3

2.6

3.1

3.1

2.7

2.1

2.0

2.6

2.7

3.0

3.3

3.2

3.6

3.9

4.0

U.S.(%Ch)

4.0

4.0

5.1

5.6

5.4

5.6

5.1

4.9

5.2

5.9

6.4

6.9

6.8

6.4

5.8

5.1

781.2

788.4

797.3

806.6

814.8

821.2

829.3

837.8

847.5

858.4

870.4

883.5

896.6

909.3

922.2

935.1

GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch)

3.6

3.4

3.6

3.6

4.3

4.2

4.0

3.9

4.0

4.5

4.9

5.4

5.8

5.9

6.0

5.9

688.1

692.6

697.1

702.6

707.0

711.0

714.8

719.2

723.9

729.8

736.5

744.1

751.1

758.0

765.2

772.4

(%Ch)

1.6

1.7

2.2

2.0

2.8

2.6

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.6

3.0

3.5

3.8

3.9

3.9

3.8

Employment

2.5

3.2

3.3

2.9

2.4

1.6

1.5

1.3

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.4

1.5

1.7

1.9

2.0

Labor Force

0.9

0.9

1.1

1.1

1.3

1.4

1.3

1.2

1.2

1.1

1.1

1.0

1.0

1.1

1.3

1.3

GSP (Bil. 2005$)

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change)

FL Unemployment Rate (%)

9.3

8.6

8.5

8.4

8.4

8.4

8.4

8.4

8.3

8.3

8.1

8.0

7.9

7.7

7.6

7.4

U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

8.3

8.2

8.1

8.0

7.9

7.9

7.9

7.9

7.8

7.7

7.6

7.4

7.3

7.1

7.0

6.9

Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) Total Nonfarm U.S.

1.5

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.6

Florida

1.1

0.9

1.3

1.2

1.8

1.9

1.9

1.8

1.6

1.7

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.4

2.5

Mining

-1.7

-1.2

0.8

1.8

1.1

0.3

-0.6

-1.5

-2.6

-3.4

-3.6

-3.3

-2.6

-1.9

-1.4

-1.0

Construction

-5.0

-4.5

-1.2

-1.0

0.9

2.9

4.5

6.5

8.3

9.8

11.1

12.3

13.5

14.4

14.8

14.4

Manufacturing Nondurable Goods

1.2

1.2

1.6

1.3

1.3

2.4

2.7

3.2

3.4

2.8

2.6

2.4

2.2

1.8

1.4

1.0

-0.3

0.2

1.2

0.7

0.5

0.0

-0.2

-0.3

-0.3

-0.6

-0.8

-0.9

-1.0

-1.0

-1.1

-1.1

Durable Goods

2.0

1.7

1.9

1.7

1.6

3.6

4.2

4.9

5.2

4.5

4.2

4.0

3.7

3.2

2.6

2.0

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

3.2

2.2

3.2

2.7

2.4

3.4

3.6

3.6

3.2

3.0

2.9

2.9

3.2

3.3

3.4

3.5

Wholesale Trade

0.2

0.8

1.2

1.7

3.2

2.8

2.8

2.4

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.4

2.7

2.9

2.9

2.9

Retail Trade

2.6

1.9

1.3

0.6

1.0

0.9

0.9

0.5

0.1

0.0

-0.2

0.1

0.4

0.8

1.1

1.4

Financial Activities

1.1

1.6

2.0

1.7

2.0

1.6

1.3

0.9

0.3

0.0

-0.1

-0.1

0.1

0.3

0.4

0.4

Prof. and Business Services

2.3

1.5

1.9

2.2

4.0

4.7

4.8

4.0

3.2

3.5

4.4

5.4

6.1

6.1

5.6

5.2

Edu & Health Services

2.1

1.8

1.5

1.0

1.5

1.5

1.1

1.0

1.6

1.9

1.8

2.0

1.7

1.9

2.1

2.3

Leisure & Hospitality

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.9

2.9

2.5

1.9

1.5

1.1

0.6

0.3

-0.2

-0.4

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

Information

-0.6

-0.3

0.4

2.8

2.6

4.0

4.5

2.8

2.9

2.2

1.4

1.4

1.3

1.0

1.5

1.4

Federal Gov't.

-0.8

-1.3

-2.1

-2.2

-2.3

-2.7

-2.8

-2.8

-2.8

-2.8

-2.6

-2.5

-2.2

-1.9

-1.7

-1.4

State & Local Gov't.

-1.4

-0.9

-0.2

-0.7

-0.2

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

0.9

Population and Migration Population (thous) (%Ch)

19225.0 19284.6 19346.9 19410.8 19477.0 19545.5 19616.3 19689.6 19765.5 19844.1 19925.5 20008.5 20092.6 20177.9 20264.1 20351.1

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.3

1.3

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.5

1.5

1.6

1.6

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

45.8

48.0

50.2

51.4

53.3

55.2

57.0

59.1

61.2

63.4

65.6

67.2

68.2

69.2

70.0

70.6

3.2

7.7

12.5

15.1

16.4

15.1

13.5

14.9

14.8

14.9

15.2

13.7

11.5

9.2

6.6

5.2

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous)

53.0

53.5

59.0

65.4

71.0

78.7

86.5

94.4

101.6

110.7

120.9

131.3

141.3

151.0

159.0

165.2

Housing Starts Single Family (thous)

37.5

39.3

41.3

43.1

46.1

51.8

57.2

62.8

67.7

75.2

83.5

91.4

99.2

107.0

113.3

117.4

Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

15.5

14.2

17.7

22.4

25.0

26.9

29.4

31.6

33.9

35.5

37.4

39.9

42.1

44.0

45.7

47.8

2.8

1.6

0.9

1.2

0.8

1.0

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.2

2.0

1.9

1.9

Net Migration (thous) (%Ch)

Housing

Consumer Prices (%Ch)

1.6

1.8

2.1

*Quarterly at an annual rate Institute for Economic Competitiveness

15

F l o r i d a S u m m a r y Ta b l e s Table 3. Employment Quarterly* 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm Manufacturing Durable Goods Wood Products Computer & Electronics Transportation Equipment Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

7314.6 7335.3 7366.7 7408.5 7446.8 7478.2 7509.8 7539.4 7569.5 7604.1 7645.2 7692.8 7737.4 7783.1 7830.8 7881.6 314.6

314.5

316.2

317.1

318.6

322.1

324.8

327.2

329.3

331.2

333.2

335.1

336.4

337.3

337.9

338.6

209.0

208.3

209.8

210.8

212.4

215.9

218.6

221.2

223.4

225.6

227.9

230.1

231.6

232.8

233.7

234.6

8.8

8.9

9.1

9.5

9.9

10.3

10.7

11.2

11.7

12.2

12.8

13.3

13.7

14.0

14.2

14.4

43.1

42.5

42.4

42.1

42.7

42.8

42.6

42.4

42.4

42.4

42.6

42.8

42.9

42.9

42.9

42.9

34.4

34.6

34.8

35.0

35.4

36.0

36.6

37.0

37.4

37.7

38.0

38.1

38.1

38.1

38.1

38.1

105.6

106.2

106.3

106.3

106.2

106.2

106.1

106.0

105.9

105.6

105.3

105.0

104.8

104.5

104.2

103.9

28.8

29.4

29.5

29.5

29.5

29.6

29.7

29.7

29.7

29.8

29.8

29.8

29.8

29.8

29.7

29.7

7000.0 7020.7 7050.5 7091.4 7128.2 7156.1 7185.0 7212.2 7240.3 7272.9 7312.0 7357.7 7401.0 7445.7 7492.9 7543.0 5.6

5.6

5.7

5.7

5.7

5.7

5.6

5.6

5.5

5.5

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.3

5.3

Construction

321.3

319.4

319.9

321.5

324.2

328.6

334.4

342.5

351.2

360.8

371.4

384.6

398.6

412.6

426.4

439.9

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

236.2

236.2

237.7

239.5

241.9

244.1

246.2

248.2

249.7

251.4

253.3

255.4

257.6

259.8

262.0

264.3

Wholesale Trade

308.0

310.6

312.6

315.2

317.7

319.2

321.5

322.9

324.3

326.0

328.3

330.7

333.2

335.4

337.7

340.2

Retail Trade

968.6

969.6

972.2

976.4

978.0

978.6

981.4

981.8

979.2

978.4

979.7

982.3

983.3

985.9

990.1

995.8

134.3

134.1

134.2

136.5

137.8

139.5

140.2

140.4

141.8

142.6

142.2

142.3

143.6

144.0

144.3

144.3

Information Prof. & Bus. Services

1063.0 1066.8 1074.0 1089.5 1105.8 1116.9 1125.8 1133.2 1140.6 1155.8 1175.3 1194.9 1210.6 1226.2 1241.5 1257.0

Admin. & Support

528.4

529.7

533.3

544.6

555.0

561.3

564.8

565.1

570.6

581.9

597.7

613.4

628.6

642.0

655.9

670.0

Prof. Sci & Tech

451.7

453.8

457.3

461.4

467.3

472.2

477.6

484.5

486.3

490.0

493.5

497.4

497.8

499.8

501.0

502.5

82.9

83.3

83.4

83.5

83.5

83.5

83.5

83.6

83.8

83.9

84.0

84.1

84.3

84.4

84.5

84.6

Financial Activities

Mgmt. of Co.

487.1

489.9

491.9

494.3

496.7

497.5

498.4

498.9

498.1

497.6

498.1

498.4

498.8

499.2

500.0

500.5

Real Estate & Rent

153.0

154.3

155.4

156.3

156.9

157.5

158.2

158.9

159.5

160.2

161.0

161.8

162.3

162.8

163.4

164.0

334.2

335.6

336.5

338.0

339.8

340.0

340.1

339.9

338.6

337.5

337.1

336.6

336.5

336.4

336.6

336.5

Fin. & Insurance Edu. & Health Service

1116.4 1119.6 1127.3 1132.2 1133.4 1136.1 1140.2 1143.6 1151.7 1157.2 1161.1 1166.6 1171.7 1178.8 1185.7 1193.2

Education Services

154.1

154.7

154.1

153.5

153.5

153.2

152.8

152.2

Health Services

962.3

964.9

973.2

978.6

979.9

982.9

987.4

991.4 1000.3 1006.5 1011.2 1017.3 1022.9 1030.6 1038.1 1046.1

151.4

150.6

149.9

149.3

148.8

148.2

147.6

147.1

Leisure & Hospitality

963.6

971.3

979.0

985.6

991.5

995.1

997.2 1000.6 1002.5 1001.6

999.9

998.9

998.7

997.2

996.5

997.0

Other Services

307.4

308.7

309.6

310.8

312.3

312.9

313.7

315.8

315.2

315.1

315.1

315.1

315.2

Government

314.4

315.0

315.4

1088.5 1088.9 1086.3 1084.2 1083.2 1081.9 1080.4 1080.3 1080.6 1080.7 1081.5 1083.0 1084.3 1086.2 1088.3 1090.2

Federal Gov't.

132.6

132.2

131.4

130.4

129.6

128.6

127.7

126.8

125.9

125.1

124.3

123.6

123.1

122.6

122.3

121.9

State & Local Gov't

955.8

956.7

955.0

953.7

953.6

953.2

952.7

953.5

954.7

955.6

957.2

959.4

961.2

963.6

966.1

968.4

*Quarterly at an annual rate

16

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

F l o r i d a S u m m a r y Ta b l e s Table 4. Employment Annual 2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

7161.1

7241.0

7489.5

7790.7

7994.9

8019.7

7736.1

7249.3

7192.9

Manufacturing

428.1

409.8

410.6

415.4

416.5

399.1

371.1

323.9

309.0

283.5

270.0

273.7

280.9

284.7

269.3

249.3

214.4

203.6

Wood Products

18.1

17.8

20.3

22.4

21.6

17.0

12.8

9.1

8.4

Computer & Electronics

59.7

53.4

52.5

51.3

50.1

49.2

48.0

44.6

42.9

Transportation Equipment

44.9

43.7

44.3

45.6

45.7

44.6

42.5

34.9

33.8

144.5

139.8

136.9

134.5

131.8

129.8

121.7

109.5

105.5

36.3

35.2

33.9

32.8

31.4

31.7

29.7

27.9

27.5

6733.0

6831.2

7078.9

7375.3

7578.4

7620.7

7365.0

6925.4

6883.9

7.2

7.1

7.1

7.1

6.6

6.7

6.2

5.5

5.4

Construction

504.7

524.0

572.7

637.4

682.1

622.8

515.8

396.6

350.7

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

242.4

234.6

238.4

247.4

250.9

251.1

245.9

229.4

224.7

Wholesale Trade

315.8

317.4

327.9

341.3

351.3

356.7

345.7

317.9

308.7

Retail Trade

931.6

928.6

954.2

993.8

1013.8

1027.0

997.4

931.6

933.8

Information

172.7

166.2

162.9

163.3

161.8

161.3

155.8

142.4

135.7

Prof. & Bus. Services

959.4

974.4

1033.5

1109.5

1158.4

1166.1

1092.8

1002.6

1015.7

Admin. & Support

511.5

517.7

554.8

600.8

627.4

624.7

553.5

491.8

504.6

Prof. Sci & Tech

377.0

384.9

403.8

431.1

451.6

460.3

456.5

430.9

432.1

71.0

71.8

74.9

77.6

79.3

81.0

82.8

79.9

79.1

Financial Activities

483.2

493.8

512.6

538.0

554.8

549.2

524.1

485.4

476.1

Real Estate & Rent

154.5

157.7

166.5

176.7

182.5

178.1

169.9

154.9

150.3

Fin. & Insurance

328.7

336.1

346.1

361.3

372.2

371.1

354.2

330.5

325.8

Edu. & Health Service

887.9

920.7

947.4

970.6

996.4

1027.1

1048.5

1061.1

1081.1

Education Services

103.1

111.6

120.3

126.3

129.9

135.7

139.6

144.6

151.5

Health Services

784.8

809.1

827.1

844.4

866.5

891.4

908.9

916.5

929.6

Leisure & Hospitality

874.1

889.3

926.4

950.8

964.9

983.9

970.5

926.6

931.0

Other Services

315.4

322.2

329.3

334.9

338.1

345.7

335.6

312.5

309.2

1038.7

1052.8

1066.5

1081.2

1099.4

1123.2

1126.9

1113.9

1111.7

Federal Gov't.

122.3

126.3

126.8

128.7

127.8

128.0

129.8

132.6

142.2

State & Local Gov't

916.4

926.4

939.7

952.6

971.6

995.2

997.1

981.3

969.5

Durable Goods

Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

Mgmt. of Co.

Government

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

17

F l o r i d a S u m m a r y Ta b l e s Table 4. Employment Annual 2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

7274.3

7356.3

7493.5

7627.9

7808.2

7992.4

8157.5

8289.1

8396.1

8496.9

Manufacturing

311.4

315.6

323.2

332.2

337.6

338.4

336.8

335.2

333.3

331.9

205.8

209.5

217.0

226.8

233.2

235.1

234.2

233.2

232.1

231.4

8.7

9.1

10.5

12.5

14.1

14.5

14.4

14.5

14.6

14.6

Computer & Electronics

43.1

42.6

42.6

42.5

42.9

43.1

43.6

44.0

44.0

44.5

Transportation Equipment

34.2

34.7

36.3

37.8

38.1

37.4

36.1

35.1

34.3

33.4

105.6

106.1

106.1

105.4

104.4

103.3

102.6

102.0

101.2

100.5

28.6

29.3

29.6

29.8

29.7

29.6

29.5

29.5

29.6

29.7

6962.9

7040.7

7170.4

7295.7

7470.7

7654.1

7820.8

7953.9

8062.8

8165.0

5.6

5.6

5.6

5.5

5.4

5.3

5.2

5.1

4.9

4.8

Construction

330.2

320.5

332.4

367.0

419.4

466.9

500.0

521.1

531.2

538.1

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

230.9

237.4

245.1

252.4

260.9

270.3

280.0

286.3

288.3

288.5

Wholesale Trade

308.5

311.6

320.3

327.3

336.6

345.7

355.3

362.5

367.3

371.8

Retail Trade

956.5

971.7

980.0

979.9

988.8

1003.9

1013.0

1017.6

1021.1

1021.3

Information

134.0

134.8

139.5

142.2

144.1

145.5

148.2

151.1

153.9

156.0

Prof. & Bus. Services

1052.6

1073.3

1120.4

1166.7

1233.8

1289.6

1346.9

1398.5

1447.8

1500.1

Admin. & Support

526.0

534.0

561.5

590.9

649.1

701.2

758.6

808.4

846.7

881.8

Prof. Sci & Tech

445.4

456.0

475.4

491.8

500.3

503.5

503.2

504.5

515.4

531.7

81.2

83.3

83.5

83.9

84.5

84.9

85.1

85.6

85.7

86.6

Financial Activities

482.9

490.8

497.9

498.1

499.6

502.2

508.5

514.3

518.7

521.7

Real Estate & Rent

151.8

154.7

157.9

160.6

163.1

165.3

167.4

169.3

170.6

171.5

Fin. & Insurance

331.1

336.1

340.0

337.5

336.5

336.9

341.1

345.0

348.0

350.2

1105.9

1123.9

1138.3

1159.2

1182.3

1217.5

1247.1

1270.0

1291.0

1311.1

Education Services

154.1

154.1

152.9

150.3

147.9

146.1

144.8

143.4

141.8

140.0

Health Services

951.8

969.8

985.4

1008.8

1034.4

1071.3

1102.4

1126.6

1149.2

1171.1

Leisure & Hospitality

952.3

974.9

996.1

1000.7

997.4

994.9

991.1

986.9

984.1

977.7

Other Services

306.5

309.1

313.3

315.4

315.1

316.4

318.7

320.4

321.6

322.5

1096.9

1087.0

1081.4

1081.4

1087.3

1095.9

1106.7

1120.1

1132.9

1151.2

Federal Gov't.

133.8

131.7

128.2

124.7

122.5

121.2

120.4

119.6

119.3

127.8

State & Local Gov't

963.1

955.3

953.2

956.7

964.8

974.7

986.4

1000.4

1013.6

1023.4

Durable Goods Wood Products

Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

Mgmt. of Co.

Edu. & Health Service

Government

18

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

F l o r i d a S u m m a r y Ta b l e s Table 4. Employment Annual 2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

8590.4

8699.4

8795.3

8875.0

8983.6

9115.3

9254.9

9400.1

9558.5

9714.3

Manufacturing

330.2

328.6

325.3

321.8

317.7

313.2

309.1

304.9

301.1

297.6

230.4

229.6

227.7

225.4

222.7

219.3

216.3

213.1

210.2

207.8

Wood Products

14.4

14.2

14.1

14.3

14.5

14.5

14.4

14.3

14.0

13.9

Computer & Electronics

44.5

44.4

44.0

43.4

42.9

42.4

42.0

41.7

41.6

41.5

Transportation Equipment

32.8

32.4

32.0

31.6

31.0

30.5

29.9

29.4

28.8

28.3

Nondurables

99.8

99.0

97.7

96.3

95.1

93.9

92.8

91.8

90.8

89.7

29.7

29.6

29.4

29.3

29.2

29.0

28.9

28.7

28.5

28.4

8260.1

8370.8

8469.9

8553.2

8665.9

8802.1

8945.8

9095.2

9257.5

9416.7

4.7

4.7

4.6

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.3

4.3

4.2

4.2

Construction

546.3

553.7

563.7

575.9

591.5

609.0

625.1

638.1

650.0

662.9

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

290.0

291.8

295.3

299.7

304.1

308.2

311.3

314.1

317.8

319.1

Wholesale Trade

375.0

378.5

382.0

385.1

388.3

391.5

395.2

396.8

398.9

400.1

Retail Trade

1017.7

1015.9

1014.8

1015.4

1018.3

1022.8

1032.0

1042.5

1051.3

1058.6

Information

158.7

161.9

163.5

164.3

165.7

168.0

171.1

174.9

179.1

182.7

Prof. & Bus. Services

1572.1

1649.9

1708.9

1745.8

1799.8

1865.1

1925.1

1987.8

2060.6

2132.5

Admin. & Support

928.6

977.8

1005.8

1008.9

1029.6

1062.5

1090.0

1121.3

1164.1

1208.3

Prof. Sci & Tech

556.1

584.2

614.9

648.4

681.5

713.9

746.3

777.9

808.1

835.8

87.4

87.9

88.2

88.4

88.6

88.7

88.7

88.5

88.4

88.4

Financial Activities

524.0

527.9

532.0

536.4

541.8

548.1

555.5

564.3

573.6

582.5

Real Estate & Rent

172.4

173.4

174.4

175.5

176.6

177.8

179.1

180.5

181.9

183.3

Fin. & Insurance

351.6

354.5

357.6

360.9

365.2

370.2

376.4

383.8

391.7

399.2

1321.5

1329.4

1337.9

1344.5

1353.4

1366.2

1382.8

1401.9

1422.7

1441.1

138.5

137.4

136.1

134.4

134.5

135.7

137.2

138.8

140.8

142.9

1183.0

1191.9

1201.8

1210.0

1218.9

1230.4

1245.6

1263.1

1281.9

1298.2

Leisure & Hospitality

971.7

964.9

959.3

958.6

959.2

963.3

972.3

983.5

996.2

1006.5

Other Services

323.1

323.4

324.8

326.8

330.0

333.3

336.5

340.2

344.1

348.0

1155.2

1168.9

1183.1

1196.4

1209.5

1222.3

1234.9

1246.9

1259.0

1278.6

121.7

122.2

124.2

126.9

129.6

132.2

134.8

137.3

139.8

150.7

1033.5

1046.7

1059.0

1069.5

1079.9

1090.1

1100.1

1109.6

1119.3

1127.9

Durable Goods

Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

Mgmt. of Co.

Edu. & Health Service Education Services Health Services

Government Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

19

F l o r i d a S u m m a r y Ta b l e s Table 4. Employment Annual 2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm Manufacturing

294.5

291.3

287.9

284.8

281.7

279.0

276.3

274.0

272.4

270.7

205.7

203.5

201.0

198.8

196.6

194.8

193.0

191.4

190.6

189.7

Wood Products

13.8

13.8

13.8

13.8

13.9

13.9

14.0

14.0

14.0

14.0

Computer & Electronics

41.6

41.7

41.9

42.2

42.5

42.7

43.0

43.4

43.8

44.2

Transportation Equipment

27.7

26.9

26.2

25.6

25.0

24.5

23.9

23.4

22.8

22.3

Nondurables

88.7

87.8

86.9

86.0

85.1

84.2

83.4

82.6

81.8

81.0

28.2

28.0

27.9

27.7

27.5

27.3

27.1

26.9

26.7

26.5

9590.2

9783.2

4.2

4.2

4.2

4.2

4.1

4.1

4.1

4.0

4.0

3.9

Construction

681.0

700.2

717.5

730.3

743.8

758.9

774.3

789.4

804.2

813.7

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

320.6

321.3

321.6

320.6

319.0

317.2

314.8

312.6

310.4

308.2

Wholesale Trade

401.9

403.1

403.6

403.2

402.9

402.7

402.1

401.4

401.0

401.8

Retail Trade

1067.2

1075.0

1082.4

1088.3

1094.3

1101.0

1108.4

1117.2

1126.1

1133.7

Information

186.4

190.3

194.2

198.4

203.1

207.9

212.8

217.7

223.0

228.3

Prof. & Bus. Services

2225.5

2332.3

2407.9

2469.4

2530.2

2591.9

2653.1

2713.3

2776.1

2845.4

Admin. & Support

1272.8

1351.6

1400.6

1434.5

1467.9

1502.3

1536.9

1571.1

1608.3

1645.5

Prof. Sci & Tech

864.3

892.2

918.8

946.4

973.8

1000.9

1027.5

1053.6

1079.0

1111.1

88.4

88.4

88.4

88.5

88.5

88.6

88.6

88.7

88.8

88.7

Financial Activities

591.9

601.1

609.5

617.0

625.0

633.4

640.8

648.2

655.2

659.4

Real Estate & Rent

184.8

186.2

187.6

188.8

190.2

191.6

192.9

194.2

195.5

196.6

Fin. & Insurance

407.1

414.9

422.0

428.1

434.8

441.8

447.9

454.0

459.7

462.8

1459.0

1477.2

1491.1

1501.0

1510.6

1521.6

1532.2

1544.2

1555.5

1568.1

145.0

147.4

149.4

150.8

152.3

153.8

155.5

157.2

158.9

160.0

Health Services

1314.0

1329.8

1341.7

1350.2

1358.3

1367.8

1376.7

1387.1

1396.6

1408.1

Leisure & Hospitality

1018.5

1031.0

1041.9

1050.5

1060.6

1070.5

1079.8

1090.2

1100.9

1109.7

351.0

353.2

355.7

357.8

359.9

362.3

364.2

365.9

367.7

369.1

1283.0

1294.4

1304.8

1315.2

1325.5

1336.3

1346.9

1357.3

1367.8

1384.3

146.3

148.9

151.4

154.0

156.7

159.4

162.0

164.5

166.9

175.3

1136.7

1145.5

1153.4

1161.2

1168.8

1176.9

1184.9

1192.8

1200.9

1209.0

Durable Goods

Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

Mgmt. of Co.

Edu. & Health Service Education Services

Other Services Government Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't

20

9884.7 10074.5 10222.2 10340.7 10460.8 10586.8 10709.8 10835.4 10964.4 11096.4

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

9934.3 10055.9 10179.1 10307.9 10433.5 10561.4 10692.0 10825.6

F l o r i d a S u m m a r y Ta b l e s Table 5. Personal Income-Quarterly* 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4

Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

768.9

777.3

787.6

797.2

805.0

813.3

821.4

830.1

843.1

852.3

863.2

874.6

888.2

900.5

913.1

926.2

Wages & Salaries

346.7

349.6

353.5

358.0

361.9

365.4

369.0

372.8

377.0

381.3

386.0

391.1

396.4

401.6

406.8

412.1

Other Labor Income

79.0

79.8

80.4

81.4

82.7

83.5

84.3

85.3

86.8

88.0

89.0

90.4

91.9

93.4

95.0

96.6

Nonfarm

43.8

44.3

45.0

45.8

46.4

47.0

47.6

48.3

49.0

50.0

50.8

51.7

52.6

53.5

54.1

54.8

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

Property Income

Farm

190.9

194.8

199.1

202.0

204.6

206.8

208.6

210.8

213.0

215.0

218.3

221.6

225.8

229.9

234.3

239.0

Transfer Payments

154.0

155.1

156.3

157.3

158.9

160.8

162.4

164.1

170.4

172.1

173.6

175.2

180.6

182.1

183.6

185.4

Social Insurance

48.2

48.8

49.4

50.1

52.3

52.9

53.4

54.0

56.1

56.9

57.5

58.2

62.1

63.0

63.8

64.8

Personal Income

666.6

673.4

682.3

688.9

693.7

699.4

703.5

707.9

715.1

719.0

724.7

731.2

739.2

746.2

753.3

761.0

Wages & Salaries

300.6

302.8

306.3

309.4

311.9

314.2

316.1

317.9

319.8

321.7

324.0

327.0

329.9

332.8

335.7

338.6

Billions 2005 $

Other Labor Income

68.5

69.1

69.6

70.3

71.3

71.8

72.2

72.8

73.6

74.2

74.8

75.5

76.5

77.4

78.4

79.4

Nonfarm

37.9

38.4

39.0

39.6

39.9

40.4

40.7

41.2

41.6

42.2

42.7

43.3

43.7

44.3

44.7

45.0

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

Property Income

Farm

165.5

168.7

172.4

174.6

176.3

177.8

178.6

179.8

180.7

181.3

183.2

185.2

187.9

190.5

193.3

196.4

Transfer Payments

133.5

134.4

135.4

135.9

137.0

138.2

139.1

139.9

144.6

145.2

145.8

146.4

150.3

150.9

151.5

152.3

41.8

42.3

42.8

43.3

45.1

45.5

45.7

46.1

47.6

48.0

48.3

48.7

51.7

52.2

52.6

53.2

Social Insurance

New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations 1022.8 1015.5 1043.6 1072.3 1106.4 1145.2 1179.4 1196.6 1222.6 1249.9 1276.9 1301.0 1316.8 1333.0 1345.7 1359.9 Retail Sales (Billions $)

274.5

276.2

279.1

282.3

284.8

286.9

290.1

292.7

295.5

298.4

301.7

304.9

308.0

311.5

315.2

319.3

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2005$)

238.0

239.3

241.8

244.0

245.4

246.7

248.4

249.6

250.6

251.8

253.3

254.9

256.4

258.1

260.1

262.4

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

21

F l o r i d a S u m m a r y Ta b l e s Table 6. Personal Income-Annual 2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

508.4

531.2

582.8

633.2

690.3

721.1

740.7

697.3

719.8

Wages & Salaries

250.9

264.5

285.6

310.3

333.1

344.7

339.8

322.3

325.5

Other Labor Income

53.3

59.2

63.3

69.5

72.9

73.1

74.4

74.2

75.1

Nonfarm

34.8

36.3

39.6

42.0

45.1

43.7

41.0

37.3

41.0

1.3

1.1

1.0

1.5

1.2

0.9

0.6

0.7

0.7

123.8

122.8

142.7

156.4

181.7

196.5

211.2

172.0

176.5

Transfer Payments

79.8

84.9

91.3

98.1

104.4

111.2

122.5

138.2

149.1

Social Insurance

37.2

39.0

42.3

46.2

49.9

50.9

50.8

49.2

50.1

Farm Property Income

Billions 2005 $ Personal Income

548.0

561.2

600.0

633.1

671.9

683.5

679.9

638.8

647.8

Wages & Salaries

270.4

279.4

294.0

310.3

324.3

326.7

311.9

295.2

293.0

Other Labor Income

57.5

62.5

65.2

69.5

71.0

69.3

68.3

67.9

67.6

Nonfarm

37.5

38.4

40.7

42.0

43.9

41.4

37.6

34.2

36.9

1.4

1.2

1.0

1.5

1.2

0.8

0.6

0.7

0.6

133.5

129.7

146.9

156.3

176.8

186.3

193.9

157.6

158.8

Transfer Payments

86.0

89.7

94.0

98.1

101.6

105.4

112.4

126.5

134.2

Social Insurance

40.1

41.2

43.6

46.2

48.6

48.3

46.6

45.1

45.1

1302.6

1397.3

1442.7

1449.7

1416.7

1242.2

952.0

694.8

848.7

Retail Sales (Billions $)

196.6

206.4

223.3

241.5

257.7

262.3

255.6

232.3

244.4

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2005$)

211.9

218.0

229.9

241.4

250.8

248.7

234.6

212.8

220.0

Farm Property Income

New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations

22

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

F l o r i d a S u m m a r y Ta b l e s Table 6. Personal Income-Annual 2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

754.0

782.7

817.4

858.3

907.0

963.2

1018.1

1074.3

1130.8

1186.3

Wages & Salaries

337.9

352.0

367.3

383.8

404.2

425.2

447.0

468.5

489.9

511.2

Other Labor Income

77.2

80.1

84.0

88.5

94.2

100.6

107.3

114.1

120.5

126.7

Nonfarm

42.7

44.7

47.3

50.4

53.7

56.4

59.2

62.7

66.4

70.1

0.6

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.9

0.9

0.9

Property Income

186.7

196.7

207.7

217.0

232.3

251.8

269.3

285.0

300.2

314.2

Transfer Payments

153.5

155.7

161.6

172.8

182.9

195.1

207.6

220.8

235.0

249.7

46.6

49.1

53.2

57.2

63.4

69.2

75.7

80.4

84.9

89.5

Farm

Social Insurance

Billions 2005 $ Personal Income

662.3

677.8

701.1

722.5

749.9

783.9

816.7

848.9

881.0

911.2

Wages & Salaries

296.8

304.8

315.0

323.1

334.2

346.1

358.5

370.2

381.7

392.6

Other Labor Income

67.8

69.4

72.0

74.5

77.9

81.9

86.1

90.2

93.9

97.3

Nonfarm

37.5

38.7

40.6

42.4

44.4

45.9

47.5

49.5

51.7

53.9

0.5

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

Property Income

163.9

170.3

178.1

182.6

192.0

205.0

216.0

225.2

233.9

241.3

Transfer Payments

134.9

134.8

138.6

145.5

151.2

158.8

166.5

174.5

183.1

191.8

41.0

42.5

45.6

48.1

52.4

56.3

60.7

63.5

66.1

68.8

New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations

901.0

1038.5

1156.9

1262.6

1338.9

1388.2

1396.5

1373.5

1403.7

1433.8

Retail Sales (Billions $)

263.2

278.0

288.6

300.1

313.5

328.7

342.7

356.4

370.4

385.0

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2005$)

231.1

240.8

247.5

252.6

259.2

267.6

274.9

281.6

288.6

295.7

Farm

Social Insurance

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

23

F l o r i d a S u m m a r y Ta b l e s Table 6. Personal Income-Annual 2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

1242.3

1304.5

1371.8

1442.4

1516.6

1594.8

1678.3

1763.6

1852.9

1945.6

Wages & Salaries

533.4

557.3

582.1

607.2

635.5

667.1

700.6

736.2

774.9

814.6

Other Labor Income

132.8

139.1

145.3

151.3

157.5

164.3

171.6

179.0

187.0

195.3

74.0

78.8

83.8

88.3

92.9

97.3

102.2

107.4

112.9

118.7

0.9

0.8

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

Property Income

327.8

343.4

361.5

382.2

402.0

420.5

440.4

459.3

478.3

498.5

Transfer Payments

264.5

281.0

298.8

318.0

338.5

361.1

385.3

410.0

434.9

460.5

94.3

99.2

103.7

108.8

114.1

119.9

126.3

132.9

139.8

147.0

Nonfarm Farm

Social Insurance

Billions 2005 $ Personal Income

939.1

970.4

1002.5

1034.4

1067.4

1101.4

1137.4

1172.7

1209.0

1245.2

Wages & Salaries

403.2

414.5

425.4

435.4

447.3

460.7

474.8

489.5

505.6

521.4

Other Labor Income

100.4

103.5

106.2

108.5

110.8

113.5

116.3

119.0

122.0

125.0

56.0

58.6

61.2

63.3

65.3

67.2

69.3

71.4

73.7

76.0

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.5

0.5

Property Income

247.8

255.5

264.2

274.1

282.9

290.4

298.5

305.4

312.1

319.1

Transfer Payments

200.0

209.0

218.3

228.0

238.2

249.4

261.1

272.6

283.8

294.7

71.3

73.8

75.8

78.0

80.3

82.8

85.6

88.4

91.2

94.1

1461.0

1476.0

1491.5

1516.6

1542.4

1564.3

1585.0

1604.6

1616.4

1639.0

Retail Sales (Billions $)

401.0

418.5

438.0

459.1

482.1

506.0

531.3

557.6

584.1

612.8

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2005$)

303.1

311.3

320.1

329.3

339.3

349.4

360.1

370.8

381.1

392.2

Nonfarm Farm

Social Insurance New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations

24

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

F l o r i d a S u m m a r y Ta b l e s Table 6. Personal Income-Annual 2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

2046.0

2153.9

2262.4

2373.1

2490.1

2614.0

2740.3

2875.3

3014.8

3157.7

Wages & Salaries

858.8

905.7

950.0

993.1

1037.8

1085.1

1133.8

1184.7

1237.8

1293.2

Other Labor Income

204.1

214.4

224.2

233.5

242.9

252.8

263.6

275.3

287.3

299.7

Nonfarm

125.0

131.5

138.5

145.9

154.1

162.7

171.6

180.9

190.5

200.5

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

Property Income

520.4

543.9

568.7

595.8

626.3

659.3

690.6

725.5

760.9

795.8

Transfer Payments

487.2

515.7

546.3

578.1

610.9

645.2

681.2

719.8

760.1

801.5

Social Insurance

154.6

162.6

170.8

179.2

188.1

197.5

207.1

217.8

229.0

240.4

Farm

Billions 2005 $ Personal Income

1283.8

1325.3

1365.1

1403.7

1444.0

1486.2

1527.5

1571.1

1614.7

1657.8

Wages & Salaries

538.9

557.3

573.2

587.4

601.8

616.9

632.0

647.4

662.9

678.9

Other Labor Income

128.1

131.9

135.3

138.1

140.9

143.7

146.9

150.4

153.9

157.3

78.4

80.9

83.5

86.3

89.4

92.5

95.6

98.8

102.0

105.2

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

Property Income

326.5

334.7

343.1

352.4

363.2

374.9

385.0

396.4

407.5

417.8

Transfer Payments

305.7

317.3

329.6

341.9

354.2

366.8

379.7

393.3

407.1

420.8

97.0

100.1

103.1

106.0

109.1

112.3

115.5

119.0

122.6

126.2

1671.2

1692.9

1711.2

1737.2

1767.5

1801.6

1836.7

1869.4

1902.6

1935.5

Retail Sales (Billions $)

644.5

678.1

713.5

752.7

795.4

840.7

888.9

941.1

997.8

1060.3

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2005$)

404.4

417.2

430.5

445.2

461.2

478.0

495.5

514.2

534.4

556.7

Nonfarm Farm

Social Insurance New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

25

da Federal Government Employment (Thousands)

July 2012

C H A RTS

010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042

F l o r i d a FORE C A ST

Florida Charts

Florida & U.S. Unemployment Rate (percent)

12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 FL Unemployment Rate U.S. Unemployment Rate

Florida Construction Employment 900.0

(Thousands)

800.0 700.0 600.0 500.0 400.0 300.0 200.0

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

27

Florida Charts

Florida Consumer Price Index (% change year ago)

6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4%

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 FL CPI

Florida Education & Health Services Employment (Thousands)

1800.0 1600.0 1400.0 1200.0 1000.0 800.0 600.0

28

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

Florida Charts

Florida Financial Activities Employment 700.0

(Thousands)

650.0 600.0 550.0 500.0 450.0 400.0

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042

Florida Federal Government Employment 190.0 180.0 170.0 160.0 150.0 140.0 130.0 120.0 110.0

(Thousands)

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

29

Florida Charts

Florida Financial Activities Employment (Thousands)

700.0 650.0 600.0 550.0 500.0 450.0 400.0

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042

Florida Gross State Product (percent ch. year ago)

15% 11% 7% 2% -2% -6%

30

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 FL Gross State Product

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

Florida Charts

Florida Housing Starts 300.0

(Thousands)

250.0 200.0 150.0 100.0 50.0 0.0

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 Total Private Housing Starts

Florida Leisure & Hospitality Employment 1150.0 1100.0 1050.0 1000.0 950.0 900.0 850.0 800.0 750.0

(Thousands)

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

31

Florida Charts

Florida Manufacturing Employment (Thousands)

500.0 450.0 400.0 350.0 300.0 250.0

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042

New Passenger Car & Light Truck Registrations (percent ch. year ago)

60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60%

32

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

Florida Charts

Florida Personal Income (percent ch. year ago)

9% 4% -1% -5% -10%

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042

Florida Professional & Business Services Employment 3500.0

(Thousands)

3000.0 2500.0 2000.0 1500.0 1000.0 500.0

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

33

Florida Charts

Florida Real Gross State Product (percent ch. year ago)

8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8%

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042

Florida State & Local Government Employment (Thousands)

1300.0 1200.0 1100.0 1000.0 900.0 800.0 700.0

34

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

Florida Charts

Florida Trade, Transportation & Utilities Employment 1900.0

(Thousands)

1800.0 1700.0 1600.0 1500.0 1400.0 1300.0

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042

Florida Unemployment Rate 14.0%

(percent)

12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 Unemployment Rate

Florida Population 35000.0

(Thousands)

30000.0 25000.0 20000.0 15000.0 10000.0

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

35

Florida News Summaries Board votes to increase Florida universities’ tuition

• Florida’s Board of Governors voted to allows state universities to increase tuition, making the determinations on a school by school basis.

• Tuition for students will rise between nine and fifteen percent in the fall depending on the university. Six of eleven increase requests by schools were granted in full, while the rest of the requests were reduced by one to three percentage points.

• Governor Rick Scott spoke out against the tuition hikes, citing a 71% increase in tuition over the past four years. The universities won increases in the end, however, based on the argument that it was necessary to partly offset the $300 million budget cut that Scott and the State Legislature ordered for the State University System. Source: CBS Miami, June 21, 2012 Delayed payments can take a big toll on small businesses

• Small businesses are being hit in this economy by larger firms delaying payments on invoices, sometimes leading to the small firms being unable to pay their bills.

• According to financial analytics firm Sageworks, businesses this year are waiting an average of 29.2 days for payments after they issue an invoice, up 27 percent from the average of 22.8 days just three years ago. • The National Federation of Independent Business found in a survey last year that 64 percent of 850 small businesses polled reported waited at least 60 days to have some invoices paid. About 20 percent said the delinquencies were getting worse. Source: Tampa Bay Times, June 17, 2012 Silver Airways offers new flights connecting Tampa and Jacksonville

• Beginning August 13th, Fort Lauderdale-based Silver Airways will offer daily 65-minute flights linking Tampa and Jacksonville.

• The flights will depart three times a day on weekdays and twice a day on weekends. • Fares will starts at $39 each way.

Source: Tampa Bay Times, May 30, 2012 In Florida’s tough economy, worker discrimination complaints abound

• In 2011, Floridians filed 8,088 private sector complaints of workplace discrimination, harassment, and retaliation with the U.S. Equal Opportunity Employment Commission, being second in the nation for the third year in a row. • States such as California and New York have fewer EEOC complaints filed because they have more extensive laws regarding workplace protection than Florida. 36

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

• Phyllis Towzey, a St. Petersburg labor and employment attorney, attributes the uptick in claims to be “simply economics,” citing the fact that many companies are being forced by the economy to lay off workers, who subsequently look for the reason as to why they were let go. Source: Tampa Bay Times, May 27, 2012 Florida grabs a chunk of foreclosure settlement money for state budget

• $33.4 million of the money Florida will receive in a multibillion mortgage settlement will go towards boosting the state’s budget. • Florida is receiving $8.4 billion in total, with $334 million in cash payments. The 10% being directed toward the general budget is done in the form of a civil penalty. • States that are receiving funds are using it for a variety of purposes, such as sending the money directly to victims of mortgage fraud, incentivizing business ventures, and plugging budget gaps. • Attorney General Pam Bondi, who negotiated the settlement on behalf of Florida, is receiving public comments on where the rest of the $300 million cash payment should go.

Source: Tampa Bay Times, May 28, 2012 Florida credit unions surpass $45 billion in assets

• In the second quarter of 2012, Florida credit unions added 48,000 new members.

• Florida credit unions have now made two records with 4.65 million members statewide and $45.3 billion in assets. • The League of Southeastern Credit Unions attributes the growth in Florida, as well as neighbor Alabama, to consumer backlash against banking fees. Source: Tampa Bay Times, June 7, 2012 Citizens Insurance rattled by continuing rate increase complaints

• State insurance regulators have a number of options to depopulate state-backed Citizens Insurance and increase rates to make them more actuarially sound and in line with private insurers as members of a company committee formulate 2013 premiums.

• To cover potential losses, new coastal businesses would have to see their policy premiums rise by 41.7%, and non-coastal premiums in force at the end of 2010 would have to rise by 24%. • Obstacles include statutes dictating policy increases of no more than 10% each year and opposition arguing that the higher rates would cripple the building industry. Source: NorthEscambia.com, May 18, 2012

July 2012

metros

F l o r i d a FORE C A ST

D e lto na – Day to na B e ach – O r m o n d B e ach

Profiles

Outlook Summaries

The Deltona–Daytona–Ormond Beach MSA is comprised only of Volusia County. It is located on the east coast of Florida and is notable for special events that occur throughout the year such as Bike Week. It is home to NASCAR headquarters and the Daytona International Speedway which hosts popular races such as the Daytona 500.

The Deltona–Daytona–Ormond Beach Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show low levels of growth in most of the economic indicators measured in this forecast. Personal income is expected to average 4.6 percent growth, while the per capita income level will be 31.1. Average annual wage will be the second lowest level of the studied areas at 40.6. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.8 percent. Population growth will be second lowest among the studied metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) at 1.0 percent. Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 13,067.70 (Mill). The employment growth rate is expected to average 1.3 percent each year. Unemployment will average 9.0 percent, the third highest of the twelve MSAs. The Deltona MSA will experience the most growth in the Construction and Mining sector, with an average growth rate of 6.2 percent annually. The Professional and Business Services sector will see the second highest growth in the Deltona MSA at 3.2 percent annually. The Information sector follows with an annual growth rate of 2.3 percent. The only sector that will experience a decline is the Federal Government sector, at -4.7 percent.

Quick Facts: • Population estimate of 494,593 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • A civilian labor force of 246,763 in April of 2012 (Florida Regional Economic Database). • An unemployment rate of 8.6% not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 21,312 unemployed people (Florida Regional Economic Database). Top Area Employers: • Volusia County Schools – 8,080 • Florida Hospital (All Divisions) – 4,248 • Halifax Medical Center – 3,957 • Volusia County Government – 3,280 • Publix – 2,486 • State of Florida – 2,361 • Daytona State College – 1,797 • U.S. Government – 1,422 • Embry Riddle Aeronautical University – 1,176 Source: Volusia County Department of Economic Development and Enterprise Florida

Metro News Summaries Cuts, fewer teachers force Volusia, Flagler schools to adapt • Local schools have lost hundreds of teachers over the past five years. Volusia and Flagler counties have reduced their ranks by more than 800 full-time instructional staff members which include teachers, counselors and media specialists – since fall 2006.

• Many teachers have been forced to switch to multi-grade instruction, where they must create multiple curriculums and teach them to more students. • There are also fewer students in Volusia, which has seen enrollment drop by more than 4,000 students since 2006. Flagler, though, lost more than 100 teachers but gained nearly 900 38

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

D e l t o n a – Da y t o n a B e ac h – O r m o n d B e ac h

students, according to Florida Department of Education data, which includes traditional and charter public schools.

Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, April 27, 2012 Deltona officials deny plan to annex Osteen

• Since being founded in 1995, Deltona has annexed 45 other towns, causing its population to grow from about 56,000 to more than 80,000 • Deltona officials have explained that state law prevents cities from annexing any lands except those in which a contiguous landowner asks to join.

• Despite that, Osteen residents remain skeptical of Deltona, and say they fear new taxes, a changing character in their community, and the crime that comes with big cities.

New Smyrna OKs expansion of downtown arts district

• The Planning and Zoning Board on Monday unanimously recommended establishing a new district designed to encourage more arts-related businesses downtown.

• Under the arts overlay district, businesses such as bakeries, cafes, coffee shops, art galleries, restaurants, theaters and other stores and services associated with the visual, cultural, literary, decorative or culinary arts could receive certain exemptions or incentives. • Home-based businesses allowed in the arts overlay would be permitted to put up signs, which cannot exceed 10 square feet or be lit.

Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, May 8, 2012

Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, April 30, 2012 Halifax to tear down Atlantic Medical Center

• Halifax Health plans to demolish the old Atlantic Medical Center, an empty complex that is costing the hospital system $230,000 per year to maintain. • Bill Griffin, director of system research and planning for Halifax Health, said the cost of renovating the 1970s-era Atlantic Medical Center far outweighed the cost of demolition. The complex has been empty for the past eight months, he said.

• Making the land development-ready, including reducing the potential environmental impacts, is expected to cost about $2.1 million.

Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, May 8, 2012

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

39

D e lto na – Day to na B e ach – O r m o n d B e ach Deltona - Daytona Beach - Ormond Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manuf acturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Inf ormation Financial Activities Prof essional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

(percent)

35000.0

10.0%

30000.0

8.0%

25000.0

1.6

(Millions 2000 $)

15000.0

4.0%

10000.0

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 FL Unemployment Rate Deltona Unemployment Rate

5000.0

240.0

(Thousands)

220.0 200.0 180.0 160.0 140.0 120.0

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 Deltona Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 Real Gross Metro Product

Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Personal Income

Deltona-Daytona Beach Payroll Employment

40

1.4

20000.0

6.0% 2.0%

1.2

Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Gross Metro Product

Florida & Deltona-Daytona Beach Unemployment Rate 12.0%

1

8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%

(percent change year ago)

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 Real Personal Income

D e l t o n a – Da y t o n a B e ac h – O r m o n d B e ac h

Quarterly Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

July 2012 Forecast

2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

17.1 2.8 6.1 11.1

17.4 3.7 6.1 11.2

17.6 4.1 6.2 11.4

17.7 4.8 6.3 11.5

17.9 4.6 6.3 11.6

18.1 4.1 6.4 11.7

18.3 4 6.5 11.8

18.6 4.8 6.6 12

18.8 4.9 6.6 12.1

19 5.1 6.7 12.3

19.3 5.3 6.8 12.5

19.6 5.2 6.9 12.7

19.8 5.6 7 12.9

20.1 5.8 7.1 13

20.4 6.1 7.2 13.3

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

14.8 1.2

15 2.7

15.2 3.1

15.3 4.2

15.4 3.8

15.5 3

15.6 2.7

15.8 3.2

15.9 2.9

16 3

16.1 3.2

16.3 3.2

16.4 3.7

16.6 4

16.8 4.3

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

34.6 29.9

35 30.3

35.4 30.6

35.6 30.7

35.9 30.8

36.1 30.9

36.4 31

36.9 31.3

37.1 31.3

37.5 31.4

37.8 31.6

38.2 31.8

38.6 32

39 32.1

39.4 32.3

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

38.9 3.4

39.2 2.7

39.5 2.6

39.7 2.6

39.9 2.6

40.1 2.5

40.4 2.4

40.7 2.6

41 2.7

41.3 2.8

41.6 2.9

41.9 2.9

42.2 2.9

42.5 3

42.8 2.9

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

154.9 -0.6

155.7 -0.6

156.5 -1.1

157.3 1.9

158 2

158.7 2

159.4 1.9

160.2 1.9

161 1.8

161.7 1.9

162.6 2

163.5 2

164.4 2.2

165.4 2.3

166.5 2.4

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

8.2 0.6

8.2 1.9

8.3 1.4

8.3 1.7

8.4 2.8

8.5 3.1

8.6 3.5

8.6 3.6

8.7 3

8.7 2.8

8.8 2.6

8.8 2.1

8.9 2

8.9 1.6

8.9 1.3

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

146.7 -0.7

147.4 -0.8

148.3 -1.3

149 1.9

149.6 2

150.2 1.9

150.9 1.8

151.6 1.8

152.3 1.8

153 1.8

153.8 2

154.7 2

155.6 2.2

156.6 2.3

157.6 2.4

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

7.2 -2.3

7.2 -1

7.2 -0.2

7.3 0.6

7.4 2.5

7.5 4.1

7.7 6

7.9 7.6

8 8.8

8.3 9.9

8.5 11.2

8.8 12

9.1 13

9.4 13.7

9.7 13.5

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

30.2 0.2

30.3 0.6

30.5 0.1

30.7 1.9

30.8 2

30.9 1.9

31 1.7

31.1 1.5

31.2 1.3

31.3 1.1

31.4 1.3

31.5 1.4

31.7 1.7

31.9 1.9

32.1 2.2

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

4.8 23.4 1.9

4.9 23.5 1.9

4.9 23.6 1.9

4.9 23.6 2

5 23.7 2

5 23.7 2

5 23.8 2

5.1 23.7 2

5.1 23.6 2

5.2 23.7 2.1

5.2 23.7 2.1

5.3 23.8 2.1

5.3 23.9 2.1

5.4 24 2.1

5.4 24.1 2.2

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2 1.5

2 0.2

2.1 -0.5

2.1 3.5

2.1 4.6

2.1 5

2.1 2.9

2.1 3.6

2.2 3.4

2.2 2.8

2.2 2.6

2.2 2.2

2.2 1.9

2.2 2.6

2.2 2.8

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.3 0.9

7.4 1.2

7.4 1.2

7.4 2.3

7.5 1.9

7.5 1.7

7.5 1.3

7.5 0.5

7.5 0.3

7.5 0.2

7.5 0

7.5 0

7.5 0.2

7.5 0.3

7.5 0.4

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

16.6 -2.6

16.7 -4

17 -4.5

17.3 4.4

17.5 5.1

17.6 5.2

17.8 4.5

17.9 3.8

18.2 4.2

18.5 5

18.8 5.7

19 6.2

19.3 6.2

19.6 6.1

19.9 6.1

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

31.8 -1

32.1 -1

32.2 -0.3

32.2 1.6

32.4 1.6

32.5 1.2

32.5 1

32.8 1.7

32.9 1.7

33 1.7

33.2 1.9

33.2 1.4

33.4 1.4

33.5 1.5

33.6 1.5

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

21.6 -0.6

21.8 -0.9

21.9 -2.6

22 2.7

22.1 2.1

22.1 1.4

22.1 1

22.2 0.7

22.1 0.1

22 -0.2

22 -0.6

22 -0.7

22 -0.7

21.9 -0.5

21.9 -0.4

7.9 1.1

7.9 0.8

8 -0.8

8 2.2

8.1 1.9

8.1 1.8

8.1 1.6

8.1 1.3

8.2 1.3

8.2 1.2

8.2 0.7

8.2 0.5

8.2 0.4

8.2 0.3

8.2 0.6

1.1 -13.3

1.1 -11.9

1.1 -13.2

1.1 -2.9

1.1 -1.9

1.1 -2.3

1.1 -2.4

1.1 -2.3

1.1 -2.2

1.1 -2

1.1 -1.9

1.1 -1.7

1.1 -1.4

1.1 -1.1

1.1 -0.8

20.9 0

20.9 -0.2

20.8 -1.4

20.9 0

20.9 -0.1

20.9 0.1

20.9 0.3

21 0.5

21 0.6

21 0.6

21.1 0.7

21.1 0.9

21.2 1

21.2 1.1

21.3 1.1

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil)

12466.5 12552.3 12651.8 12727.6 12801.1 12868.3 12946.8 13040.9

13145 13260.4 13391.1 13515.6 13643.9 13778.7 13912.9

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

495.5 0.1

496.4 0.3

497.3 0.4

498.3 0.6

499.5 0.8

500.9 0.9

502.4 1

504.1 1.2

505.9 1.3

507.7 1.4

509.6 1.4

511.6 1.5

513.9 1.6

516.6 1.7

519.3 1.9

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

250.9 -1.1

252.3 -1

253.6 -1

254.7 1.6

256.1 2.1

257.5 2.1

259 2.1

260.2 2.2

261.8 2.2

263.5 2.3

264.1 2

264.7 1.7

265.5 1.4

266.4 1.1

266.9 1.1

Unemployment Rate (%)

8.7

8.9

8.9

9

9.2

9.3

9.3

9.3

9.3

9.2

9.1

8.9

8.7

8.6

8.4

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

905 757 148

1066 877 189

1237 986 251

1402 1119 283

1627 1341 286

1917 1533 383

2257 1752 506

2521 1905 616

2803 2127 676

3102 2367 735

3392 2593 800

3678 2816 862

3942 3038 904

4158 3215 944

4313 3326 987

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

41

D e lto na – Day to na B e ach – O r m o n d B e ach

Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

July 2012

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

12.2 4.5 4.7 7.5

13.4 9.6 5.1 8.3

14.3 6.3 5.5 8.8

15.3 7.3 5.9 9.3

16.1 5.4 6.1 10

16.6 2.8 6 10.6

15.6 -6 5.6 9.9

15.9 2.2 5.7 10.2

16.7 4.8 6 10.7

17.3 3.3 6.1 11.1

12.9 2.5

13.8 6.8

14.3 3.2

14.9 4.4

15.3 2.7

15.2 -0.4

14.3 -6.2

14.3 0.4

14.7 2.2

14.9 1.9

26.2 27.7

28.1 28.9

29.3 29.3

30.9 30.1

32.4 30.7

33.4 30.6

31.5 28.9

32.2 29

33.7 29.6

34.8 30.1

29.8 3.9

31 4.1

32 3.4

34 6.1

35.3 3.8

35.8 1.5

35.6 -0.6

36.6 2.9

37.9 3.5

39 3

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

42

157.6 3.1

164.4 4.3

170.9 3.9

173.9 1.8

172.5 -0.8

166.8 -3.3

157.3 -5.7

154.5 -1.8

156.4 1.2

155.4 -0.7

9.4 -1.5

9.8 3.9

10.2 4.4

10.6 3.9

10.3 -2.6

9.1 -12.2

7.8 -13.9

7.5 -3.9

8.1 8.2

8.2 1.3

148.1 3.5

154.6 4.4

160.6 3.9

163.3 1.6

162.2 -0.7

157.7 -2.7

149.5 -5.2

147 -1.7

148.3 0.8

147.1 -0.8

11.5 7.9

12.9 12.8

14.8 14.5

15.9 7.3

14.2 -10.4

11.3 -20.2

8.8 -22.2

7.8 -11.7

7.3 -6.2

7.2 -1.2

31.5 1.6

32 1.7

33.2 3.7

33.2 0

33.6 1.1

32.5 -3.3

30.1 -7.2

30 -0.5

30.2 0.7

30.3 0.4

4.6 24.3 2.6

4.7 25 2.3

4.8 26 2.4

5 25.9 2.4

5.3 25.8 2.5

5.2 24.8 2.4

4.9 23.2 2.1

4.7 23.3 1.9

4.8 23.5 1.8

4.9 23.5 1.9

2.3 -7.6

2.3 -2.5

2.2 -3.2

2.4 8.3

2.5 5.2

2.6 3.6

2.3 -11.9

2 -10.9

2 -1.2

2 -0.2

6.5 1.2

6.9 7.2

7.3 5.5

7.9 7.2

8 2.2

7.7 -4.1

7.1 -7.8

7.1 0.7

7.2 1.3

7.3 1.3

16.4 6.7

18.1 10.4

19.6 8.1

19.4 -0.9

18 -7.1

17.4 -3.2

17.5 0.2

16.9 -3

17.2 1.8

16.7 -3

30.1 6.7

30.7 1.9

30.5 -0.7

30.5 0.2

30.6 0.2

31.9 4.2

31.5 -1.1

31.6 0.4

32.3 2

32 -0.9

20 2.2

21.1 5.3

21.7 2.9

21.6 -0.4

22.6 4.6

22.5 -0.2

21.2 -5.8

21.1 -0.4

22 4.1

21.7 -1.3

7.9 2.9

8.2 4

8.2 0.1

8.3 1.2

8.1 -1.7

8.2 1

8.5 3.1

8.1 -3.9

7.9 -3.2

7.9 0.5

1.4 2.5

1.4 0

1.4 1.2

1.4 -0.6

1.4 -0.6

1.4 0

1.4 2.4

1.5 5.8

1.3 -15.3

1.1 -12.9

20.7 0.5

21.1 2

21.8 3.6

22.8 4.4

23.1 1.5

22.2 -4

21.1 -5

20.7 -1.7

20.9 0.7

20.9 -0.2

11205

11864.7

12645.3

13109.8

13171.6

12742.8

12211.3

12247.4

12428.5

12512.6

467.6 1.8

477.9 2.2

487.3 2

495 1.6

498.4 0.7

497 -0.3

494.8 -0.4

494.5 -0.1

494.9 0.1

496.1 0.3

226.8 2.7

232.7 2.6

242.7 4.3

247.2 1.8

253.4 2.5

254.7 0.5

252 -1

251.2 -0.3

254.1 1.1

251.9 -0.9

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

5.2

4.5

3.6

3.2

4

6.5

10.6

11.6

10.8

9

6159 5118 1041

6282 4889 1393

6439 5166 1272

4268 3110 1158

2185 1595 591

1400 1037 363

663 603 61

718 657 61

1108 521 587

992 810 182

D e l t o n a – Da y t o n a B e ac h – O r m o n d B e ac h

Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

July 2012

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

18 4.4 6.4 11.6

18.9 5 6.7 12.2

20 5.7 7 13

21.3 6.5 7.4 13.9

22.6 5.9 7.8 14.8

23.8 5.7 8.1 15.7

25.1 5.4 8.5 16.6

26.4 5 8.9 17.5

27.7 4.8 9.2 18.4

29.1 5.1 9.6 19.4

15.4 3.4

15.9 3.1

16.5 3.8

17.3 4.8

18.1 4.4

18.8 4.1

19.6 3.9

20.3 3.5

20.9 3.2

21.6 3.4

36 30.9

37.3 31.4

38.8 32.1

40.5 32.9

42 33.7

43.6 34.5

45.1 35.1

46.5 35.7

47.8 36.2

49.3 36.7

40 2.5

41.1 2.8

42.3 2.9

43.6 3

44.9 3.1

46.4 3.2

47.9 3.3

49.4 3.1

51 3.2

52.6 3.2

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

158.4 1.9

161.4 1.9

165 2.2

168.9 2.4

172.1 1.9

174.6 1.4

176.6 1.2

178.5 1.1

180.2 0.9

182.2 1.1

8.5 2.8

8.7 3

8.9 1.8

8.9 0.5

8.9 -0.2

8.9 -0.3

8.8 -0.5

8.8 -0.3

8.8 -0.3

8.7 -0.3

149.9 1.9

152.7 1.8

156.1 2.2

160 2.5

163.2 2.1

165.7 1.5

167.8 1.2

169.7 1.1

171.4 1

173.4 1.2

7.5 3.3

8.2 9.4

9.2 13.1

10.3 11.4

11 6.9

11.4 3.7

11.6 1.5

11.7 0.8

11.8 1

11.9 0.9

30.8 1.9

31.2 1.3

31.8 1.8

32.6 2.3

33.1 1.8

33.5 1.1

33.7 0.6

33.8 0.4

33.9 0.2

34 0.3

5 23.7 2

5.1 23.7 2

5.4 23.9 2.1

5.6 24.4 2.2

5.8 24.6 2.3

6 24.8 2.4

6.1 24.9 2.4

6.2 25 2.4

6.3 24.9 2.4

6.3 25 2.4

2.1 4

2.2 3.1

2.2 2.4

2.3 2.4

2.3 3

2.4 2.6

2.4 2.3

2.5 1.9

2.6 2.3

2.6 2.5

7.5 1.8

7.5 0.2

7.5 0.2

7.5 0.2

7.6 1

7.7 1

7.7 0.8

7.8 0.7

7.8 0.4

7.9 0.9

17.5 4.8

18.3 4.7

19.5 6.2

20.5 5.1

21.4 4.5

22.2 3.7

22.9 3.3

23.7 3.6

24.9 4.7

26.1 4.9

32.4 1.4

33 1.7

33.4 1.4

34.2 2.3

34.9 2.1

35.5 1.7

36.1 1.7

36.7 1.6

37 0.8

37.2 0.7

22.1 1.8

22.1 0

21.9 -0.6

21.9 -0.4

21.7 -0.7

21.5 -0.8

21.4 -0.7

21.2 -1

21 -0.9

20.8 -0.9

8.1 1.9

8.2 1.1

8.2 0.4

8.3 0.9

8.3 1

8.4 0.6

8.4 0.4

8.5 0.4

8.5 0.3

8.5 0.3

1.1 -2.4

1.1 -2.1

1.1 -1.2

1.1 -0.5

1.1 -0.1

1.1 0

1.1 0.3

1.2 12.5

1.1 -8.2

1.1 1

20.9 0.1

21 0.6

21.2 1

21.5 1.3

21.8 1.4

22.1 1.6

22.5 1.5

22.7 1.2

23 1.2

23.3 1.5

12836

13209.4

13712.8

14228

14710.9

15163

15607.8

16045

16425.7

16847.9

500.3 0.8

506.8 1.3

515.3 1.7

526.2 2.1

536.4 1.9

546.5 1.9

557.1 2

567.8 1.9

578.3 1.8

588.8 1.8

256.8 2

262.4 2.2

265.9 1.3

268.7 1.1

272.3 1.3

276.5 1.5

280.7 1.5

284.8 1.4

288.3 1.2

291.8 1.2

9.2

9.2

8.7

8

7.6

7.3

7.1

6.9

6.9

6.9

1801 1436 365

2954 2248 707

4023 3099 924

4646 3498 1148

4979 3661 1318

4972 3666 1307

4966 3680 1286

4939 3692 1247

4799 3627 1171

4709 3577 1132

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

43

D e lto na – Day to na B e ach – O r m o n d B e ach

Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

July 2012

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

30.6 5.3 10.1 20.5

32.2 5.3 10.5 21.7

33.8 5.1 10.9 22.9

35.6 5.1 11.5 24.1

37.5 5.3 12 25.4

39.3 5 12.6 26.7

41.3 5 13.3 28

43.3 4.9 13.9 29.4

45.5 5 14.7 30.8

47.8 5.1 15.5 32.3

22.4 3.4

23.1 3.3

23.8 3.2

24.6 3.2

25.4 3.3

26.2 3.1

26.9 3

27.7 2.9

28.5 3

29.4 3.1

51 37.3

52.7 37.8

54.5 38.3

56.3 38.9

58.2 39.5

60.1 40

62 40.5

64 41

66.1 41.5

68.4 42.1

54.4 3.3

56.2 3.3

58 3.3

60 3.4

62.1 3.4

64.2 3.4

66.5 3.5

68.8 3.4

71.2 3.6

73.8 3.5

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

44

184 1

185.5 0.8

187.6 1.1

190.1 1.4

192.9 1.5

195.8 1.5

198.9 1.6

201.9 1.5

205.1 1.6

208.7 1.7

8.7 -0.9

8.6 -1

8.5 -1.1

8.4 -1.3

8.3 -1.2

8.2 -1.2

8.1 -1.1

8 -1

7.9 -0.9

7.9 -0.9

175.3 1.1

176.9 0.9

179.1 1.2

181.7 1.5

184.6 1.6

187.6 1.6

190.8 1.7

193.9 1.6

197.2 1.7

200.9 1.8

12 1.3

12.2 1.7

12.5 2.2

12.8 2.7

13.1 2.2

13.4 1.7

13.6 1.5

13.8 1.6

14.1 2.3

14.4 2.4

34.2 0.5

34.4 0.6

34.6 0.8

34.9 0.9

35.3 1.2

35.7 1.1

36.1 1.1

36.4 0.8

36.7 0.9

37 0.8

6.4 25 2.5

6.5 25 2.5

6.6 25.2 2.6

6.7 25.3 2.6

6.8 25.6 2.6

6.8 25.9 2.7

6.9 26.1 2.7

7 26.4 2.7

7 26.6 2.8

7.1 26.8 2.8

2.7 1.5

2.7 1

2.7 1.4

2.8 1.9

2.8 2.4

2.9 2.7

3 2.9

3.1 2.5

3.2 2.5

3.2 2.6

8 0.9

8 0.9

8.1 1.1

8.2 1.2

8.3 1.4

8.5 1.6

8.6 1.7

8.8 1.6

8.9 1.7

9 1.6

27 3.5

27.6 2.1

28.4 3

29.4 3.5

30.3 3.2

31.3 3.2

32.4 3.6

33.6 3.4

35 4.3

36.7 4.8

37.5 0.7

37.7 0.6

38 0.7

38.4 1.1

38.9 1.3

39.5 1.5

40.1 1.6

40.6 1.4

41.2 1.3

41.7 1.3

20.6 -0.8

20.6 -0.3

20.6 -0.1

20.6 0.3

20.8 0.7

20.9 0.9

21.2 1

21.3 0.8

21.5 0.9

21.7 0.9

8.6 0.6

8.6 0.8

8.7 1.2

8.9 1.2

9 1.2

9.1 1.3

9.2 1.4

9.3 1.3

9.4 1

9.5 0.8

1.1 2.7

1.2 3.6

1.2 3.5

1.3 3.4

1.3 3.3

1.3 3.2

1.4 3.1

1.5 9.3

1.5 -1.9

1.5 3

23.7 1.4

23.9 1.2

24.2 1.2

24.5 1.1

24.8 1.1

25 1.1

25.3 1.1

25.5 1

25.8 1

26 0.9

17345.5

17862.2

18407.7

18967.8

19533.1

20109.5

20711.3

21341.6

22023.4

22715.4

599.5 1.8

610.3 1.8

621.2 1.8

632.2 1.8

643.4 1.8

654.5 1.7

665.7 1.7

676.8 1.7

687.9 1.6

699 1.6

295.8 1.4

299.8 1.4

303.6 1.3

307.7 1.4

312 1.4

316.4 1.4

320.9 1.4

325.4 1.4

330 1.4

334.6 1.4

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

6.8

6.7

6.6

6.5

6.5

6.4

6.3

6.2

6.1

6.1

4751 3677 1074

4968 3926 1042

5075 4031 1044

5157 4088 1068

5127 4034 1093

5064 3956 1108

5021 3923 1098

5038 3970 1067

5002 3961 1041

4881 3865 1017

D e l t o n a – Da y t o n a B e ac h – O r m o n d B e ac h

Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

July 2012

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

50.2 4.9 16.2 34

52.6 4.8 16.9 35.7

55.1 4.8 17.6 37.5

57.8 4.9 18.4 39.4

60.5 4.7 19.2 41.3

63.4 4.8 20 43.4

66.4 4.7 20.9 45.5

69.5 4.6 21.8 47.7

72.7 4.7 22.8 50

76.2 4.7 23.8 52.4

30.3 2.9

31.1 2.7

32 2.8

32.9 2.8

33.7 2.7

34.7 2.8

35.6 2.7

36.5 2.5

37.4 2.6

38.4 2.6

70.6 42.6

72.9 43.1

75.3 43.6

77.8 44.2

80.3 44.7

82.9 45.3

85.6 45.9

88.3 46.4

91.1 46.9

94 47.4

76.2 3.3

78.7 3.3

81.3 3.2

83.9 3.2

86.6 3.2

89.4 3.2

92.2 3.2

95.1 3.1

98.1 3.2

101.2 3.1

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

211.5 1.3

213.8 1.1

216 1.1

218.5 1.1

220.9 1.1

223.3 1.1

225.8 1.1

228.4 1.1

231.1 1.2

234 1.3

7.8 -1

7.7 -0.9

7.6 -0.9

7.6 -0.8

7.5 -0.8

7.5 -0.7

7.4 -0.4

7.4 -0.5

7.4 -0.5

7.3 -0.5

203.7 1.4

206.1 1.1

208.4 1.1

210.9 1.2

213.3 1.2

215.9 1.2

218.4 1.2

221 1.2

223.7 1.2

226.7 1.3

14.7 2.1

14.9 1.4

15.1 1.4

15.4 1.6

15.6 1.6

15.9 1.5

16.1 1.4

16.2 0.7

16.3 0.9

16.5 1.2

37.3 0.8

37.5 0.6

37.8 0.6

38 0.6

38.3 0.7

38.6 0.8

38.8 0.8

39.1 0.8

39.5 0.9

39.8 0.9

7.1 27 2.8

7.2 27.2 2.8

7.2 27.4 2.8

7.2 27.6 2.8

7.3 27.8 2.8

7.3 28.1 2.8

7.3 28.3 2.8

7.4 28.6 2.7

7.4 28.8 2.7

7.6 29 2.7

3.3 2.6

3.4 2.6

3.5 2.8

3.6 2.8

3.7 2.8

3.8 2.8

3.9 2.9

4 2.8

4.1 2.7

4.2 2.8

9.2 1.4

9.3 1.2

9.4 1.3

9.5 1.4

9.6 1.2

9.8 1.2

9.9 1.1

9.9 0.6

10 0.3

10 0.2

37.8 3.2

38.8 2.5

39.7 2.4

40.6 2.4

41.6 2.3

42.5 2.3

43.4 2.2

44.6 2.6

45.9 3

47.3 3.1

42.1 1

42.4 0.7

42.7 0.7

43.1 0.8

43.4 0.8

43.8 0.9

44.1 0.8

44.5 0.9

44.9 0.9

45.4 1

21.9 0.8

22 0.5

22.1 0.7

22.3 0.6

22.4 0.6

22.6 0.7

22.7 0.7

22.8 0.5

23 0.6

23.1 0.5

9.6 0.9

9.6 0.8

9.7 0.8

9.8 0.8

9.9 0.6

9.9 0.6

10 0.6

10 0.5

10.1 0.5

10.1 0.3

1.6 2.9

1.6 2.9

1.7 3

1.7 2.9

1.8 2.8

1.8 2.7

1.8 2.5

2 6.4

1.9 -1.2

2 2.8

26.2 0.9

26.5 0.8

26.7 0.8

26.9 0.8

27.1 0.8

27.4 0.8

27.6 0.9

27.8 0.9

28.1 0.9

28.3 0.9

23374

24032.8

24725.2

25453.2

26215

26993.6

27812.1

28671.5

29617.1

30608.9

710.1 1.6

721.1 1.6

732.1 1.5

743 1.5

754 1.5

765 1.5

776.1 1.4

787.2 1.4

798.4 1.4

810.1 1.5

339.1 1.4

343.7 1.3

348.2 1.3

352.7 1.3

357.2 1.3

361.6 1.2

366.2 1.3

370.5 1.2

374.9 1.2

379.1 1.1

6

6

5.9

5.9

5.9

5.9

5.9

5.9

5.9

5.9

4857 3871 986

4905 3950 955

4966 4037 929

4996 4095 901

4934 4069 866

4869 4030 839

4818 3999 819

4756 3959 798

4739 3965 774

4703 3950 753

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

45

Gai n e svi lle

Profiles

Outlook Summaries

The Gainesville MSA is comprised of Alachua and Gilchrist Counties and is located in the centralnorth portion of the state. This Metro is home to the University of Florida and the Florida Museum of Natural History, Florida’s official natural history museum.

The Gainesville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA is expected to show relatively low growth in most of the economic indicators measured in this forecast. Personal income growth will see a 3.8 percent growth, the lowest of the MSAs studied. Per capita income level is expected to average 32.1. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.9 percent, while the average annual wage level will be at 45.6. Population growth will average the lowest of the studied areas at 1.0 percent annually. Gross Metro Product will be the second lowest of the studied MSAs at a level of 8,850.00 (Mill). Gainesville will see an employment growth rate of 0.7 percent annually. The Gainesville MSA will maintain the lowest unemployment rate of the twelve studied, at 6.4 percent. The fastest growing sector in the area will be the Construction and Mining sector, with an average growth rate of 5.1 percent annually. This is followed by the Professional and Business Services sector with an average annual growth rate of 3.7 percent. State and Local Government, and Federal Government sectors will experience a decline, with annual growth rates of -0.2 and -3.3 respectively.

Quick Facts: • Metro population estimate of 266,369 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Alachua County population estimate of 247,418 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Gilchrist County population estimate of 17,004 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • A civilian labor force of 137,753 in April 2012 for the Metro area (Florida Department of Economic Opportunity). • An unemployment rate of 6.3% not seasonally adjusted for the entire Metro. This amounts to 8,691 unemployed people (Florida Department of Economic Opportunity). Top Area Employers: • University of Florida – 14,723 employees • Shands HealthCare – 12,588 employees

Metro News Summaries

• Malcom Randall VA Medical Center – 4,317 employees

Mayor Lowe talks up Gainesville in Washington, D.C.

• Alachua County School Board – 4,299 employees • City of Gainesville – 2,200 employees • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 2,056 employees • North Florida Regional Medical Center – 1,700 employees • Nationwide Insurance – 1,300 employees • Alachua County Government – 1,120 employees • Santa Fe Community College - 796 employees Source: City of Gainesville, 2011

• On April 18, there was a roundtable discussion which was named, “Perspectives from the Entrepreneurial Ecosystem: Creating Jobs and Growing Businesses through Entrepreneurship.”

• Lowe’s role was informing the group on how local governments can foster growth for entrepreneurs. He shared how UF was part of a joint effort with Innovation Hub and Innovation Square. • His ideas may later be included in later legislation.

Source: Gainesville.com, April 18, 2012

46

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

Ga i n e s v i l l e

Poppell continues to innovate

• Ed Poppell has a distinguished history in Gainesville. He has developed University of Florida East Campus, and continues to enhance Gainesville. • His current project is developing an area of Innovation Square to appeal to a software development company. The company requested a space for 400 employees. He has already created Innovation Hub, which is a business incubator. • He has more plans for the area, including a technology center (now under construction), a dorm, restaurant, retail space, and more office/ lab space.

Source: Gainesville.com, April 29, 2012

Alachua Co. crime dropped in 2011, but crime rate went up • The figure of Alachua County serious violent and property crimes decreased by 2.4 percent from 2010 to 2011, however the crime rate increased by 0.9 percent.

• According to 2010’s numbers, Alachua County had the 12th highest crime rate in the state, but that rate went from 4,210.5 crimes per 100,000 residents in 2010 to 4,249.7 last year as the population dropped from 255,692 in 2010 to 247,337 in 2011. • Violent crimes were down 3.7%.

Source: Gainesville.com, April 30, 2012 Further water restriction coming for Suwannee district

• Severe droughts and human consumption has depleted much of the fresh water sources in Gainesville. The Santa Fe River and Poe Springs are virtually stagnant.

• These are some of the toughest restrictions to date. The water management district wants everyone from large-scale farmers to homeowners to revisit how they use water.

Source: Gainesville.com, May 29, 2012

UF president to retire by end of 2013, search to start next month

• President Bernie Machen told the UF Board of Trustees that he would like to retire by the end of 2013. The exact end date depends on his successor. • The search for a new president is likely to take six months to a year. Machen will have been at UF for nearly a decade. • His contract, which was extended last year, allows him to remain at UF. The contract establishes a post-presidency role for him, if he cares to stay.

Source: Gainesville.com, June 8, 2012

Lane Ranger: No money available to widen CR 234

• A recent citizen wrote in to inform the local government about the condition of County Road 234. He said that the road gets a lot of traffic, many of which are in violation of a weight limit.

• He said the road is dangerously narrow, especially for school busses. The 3.43- mile portion of the road is listed as 99th on projects needed funding if voters agree on a sales tax for road maintenance. It would cost $3M to repair.

Source: Gainesville.com, June 10, 2012

• One of the restrictions is the reduction of lawn irrigation from twice a week to once a week. The restrictions are mandatory. There will also be restrictions on farmers and commercial properties. Institute for Economic Competitiveness

47

Gai n e svi lle Gainesville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manuf acturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Inf ormation Financial Activities Prof essional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

Florida & Gainesville Unemployment Rate (percent)

12.0% 10.0%

1.5

2.5

Gainesville Real Gross Metro Product (Millions 2000 $)

18000.0 16000.0 12000.0 10000.0 8000.0 6000.0

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 FL Unemployment Rate Gainesville Unemployment Rate

4000.0

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 Real Gross Metro Product

Gainesville Payroll Employment 160.0

(Thousands)

Gainesville Real Personal Income 15.0%

150.0

10.0%

140.0

5.0%

130.0

0.0%

120.0

-5.0%

110.0

48

2

14000.0

8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%

1

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 Gainesville Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

-10.0%

(percent change year ago)

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 Real Personal Income

Ga i n e s v i l l e

Quarterly Outlook for Gainesville, FL

July 2012 Forecast

2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

9.7 1.9 5.5 4.2

9.8 2.7 5.5 4.3

9.9 4 5.6 4.3

10 3.8 5.6 4.3

10 3.7 5.7 4.4

10.1 3.4 5.7 4.4

10.2 3.3 5.8 4.4

10.4 4 5.8 4.5

10.5 4.1 5.9 4.6

10.6 4.2 5.9 4.6

10.7 4.4 6 4.7

10.8 4.4 6.1 4.7

11 4.8 6.1 4.8

11.1 5.1 6.2 4.9

11.2 5.3 6.3 4.9

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

8.4 0.4

8.5 1.7

8.5 3

8.6 3.2

8.6 3

8.7 2.3

8.7 2

8.8 2.3

8.8 2.1

8.9 2.2

8.9 2.4

9 2.5

9.1 2.9

9.2 3.3

9.2 3.5

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

36.1 31.3

36.4 31.5

36.7 31.7

36.9 31.8

37.1 31.9

37.3 31.9

37.5 32

38 32.2

38.2 32.2

38.4 32.3

38.8 32.4

39.2 32.6

39.5 32.8

39.9 32.9

40.3 33.2

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

43.5 3.4

43.8 2.7

44.2 2.6

44.4 2.7

44.7 2.7

45 2.6

45.3 2.5

45.6 2.7

46 2.8

46.3 2.9

46.7 3

47 3

47.4 3.1

47.7 3.1

48.1 3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

124.8 -1.3

125.1 -0.7

125.5 0.6

125.9 0.9

126.2 1.1

126.5 1.1

126.8 1

127.2 1

127.5 1

127.8 1

128.3 1.2

128.7 1.2

129.2 1.4

129.7 1.5

130.3 1.6

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

4.4 0.2

4.4 0.5

4.5 -0.1

4.5 1.8

4.5 2.9

4.6 3.2

4.6 3.7

4.7 3.9

4.7 3.2

4.7 3

4.7 2.8

4.8 2.4

4.8 2.2

4.8 1.8

4.8 1.5

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

120.4 -1.3

120.7 -0.7

121.1 0.6

121.4 0.9

121.7 1

121.9 1

122.2 0.9

122.5 0.9

122.8 0.9

123.1 1

123.5 1.1

124 1.2

124.4 1.3

124.9 1.5

125.5 1.6

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

3.6 -6.3

3.6 -3.4

3.6 -3.5

3.6 -0.6

3.7 1.3

3.7 3

3.8 5.2

3.9 7.1

4 8.7

4.1 9.9

4.2 11.2

4.4 12.1

4.5 13

4.6 13.7

4.8 13.4

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

17.9 -0.8

18 -1

18 0.9

18.1 1.3

18.1 1.5

18.2 1.4

18.3 1.2

18.3 1

18.3 0.8

18.3 0.7

18.4 0.8

18.5 0.9

18.5 1.2

18.6 1.4

18.7 1.6

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

2.4 13.3 2.2

2.4 13.3 2.2

2.4 13.4 2.2

2.4 13.4 2.2

2.5 13.4 2.2

2.5 13.4 2.3

2.5 13.4 2.3

2.5 13.3 2.3

2.5 13.3 2.3

2.5 13.3 2.3

2.5 13.3 2.3

2.6 13.3 2.4

2.6 13.3 2.4

2.6 13.4 2.4

2.6 13.4 2.4

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.4 -6.4

1.4 -0.7

1.4 0.2

1.4 1.7

1.5 3.5

1.5 4

1.5 3.5

1.5 3.1

1.5 1.5

1.5 0.8

1.5 1

1.5 1.8

1.5 2.6

1.5 3.2

1.5 3.3

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

5.8 -0.1

5.9 0.8

5.9 1.1

5.9 2.1

5.9 1.7

6 1.5

6 1.1

5.9 0.3

5.9 0.1

6 0

6 -0.1

5.9 -0.1

5.9 0

6 0.2

6 0.2

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

10.6 -2.2

10.6 -0.1

10.8 3.4

11 4.3

11.1 5

11.2 5

11.3 4.4

11.4 3.7

11.5 4.1

11.7 4.9

11.9 5.5

12.1 6

12.2 6.1

12.4 6

12.6 6

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

22.1 -1

22.2 -0.6

22.3 0.8

22.3 1.2

22.4 1.2

22.4 0.9

22.4 0.7

22.6 1.3

22.7 1.3

22.7 1.3

22.8 1.5

22.8 1

22.9 1

22.9 1.1

23 1

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

12.8 -1.9

12.9 0.3

13 3.5

13 2.4

13.1 1.9

13.1 1.3

13.1 0.9

13.1 0.6

13.1 0

13 -0.4

13 -0.9

13 -1

12.9 -0.9

12.9 -0.7

12.9 -0.6

4.3 -2

4.4 -0.5

4.4 1.5

4.4 2

4.4 1.7

4.4 1.5

4.4 1.2

4.4 0.8

4.4 0.7

4.4 0.5

4.4 0.1

4.4 -0.1

4.4 -0.2

4.4 -0.2

4.4 0.1

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

4.2 -4.9

4.2 -4.9

4.2 -6.3

4.1 -3.8

4.1 -2.8

4.1 -3

4 -3.1

4 -3

4 -2.9

4 -2.7

3.9 -2.6

3.9 -2.4

3.9 -2.1

3.9 -1.8

3.9 -1.5

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

37.7 -0.3

37.5 -0.7

37.5 -0.4

37.5 -0.6

37.4 -0.6

37.4 -0.3

37.4 -0.2

37.4 -0.1

37.4 0

37.4 0

37.5 0.1

37.5 0.3

37.6 0.4

37.6 0.5

37.7 0.5

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil)

8577.6

8610.4

8655.7

8688.5

8722.1

8749.8

8784.7

8826

8874.4

8930.4

8997.4

9059.7

9124.5

9191.3

9258.2

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

268.3 0.7

268.9 0.8

269.6 0.8

270.2 0.9

270.9 1

271.6 1

272.3 1

273.1 1.1

273.8 1.1

274.6 1.1

275.4 1.1

276.2 1.1

277 1.2

277.8 1.1

278.5 1.1

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

138.3 -0.1

138.9 0.4

139.6 1.4

140 1.4

140.6 1.7

141.1 1.6

141.6 1.4

142 1.4

142.4 1.3

143 1.3

143.1 1.1

143.2 0.9

143.4 0.7

143.7 0.5

143.7 0.4

Unemployment Rate (%)

6.6

6.6

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.6

6.6

6.5

6.4

6.3

6.2

6.1

6

5.9

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

535 363 172

573 380 193

635 386 248

688 406 281

751 452 300

800 488 312

837 520 317

891 544 347

981 604 377

1073 667 406

1163 726 438

1252 783 469

1334 844 490

1403 892 511

1451 918 533

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

49

Gai n e svi lle

Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL

July 2012

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

6.3 3.4 3.8 2.5

7.1 13 4.3 2.8

7.7 8.2 4.6 3.1

8.3 7.9 4.9 3.4

8.8 5.6 5.1 3.6

9.2 5.2 5.2 4

8.8 -4.4 5.2 3.6

9.1 3.4 5.2 3.9

9.5 4 5.4 4.1

9.7 2.6 5.5 4.2

6.7 1.4

7.3 10.1

7.7 5.1

8.1 5

8.3 2.8

8.5 1.9

8.1 -4.6

8.2 1.6

8.3 1.5

8.4 1.1

26 27.5

29 29.8

30.8 30.8

32.5 31.6

33.8 32.1

35.3 32.4

33.5 30.7

34.5 31

35.6 31.3

36.3 31.4

29.9 1.7

33.4 11.8

35.1 5.2

36.9 5.1

38.2 3.4

39.1 2.3

40.4 3.5

41.1 1.7

42.4 3.1

43.7 3.1

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

50

126.3 1.1

128.6 1.8

130.2 1.3

132.4 1.7

134.2 1.4

133.5 -0.5

127.6 -4.4

126.9 -0.6

126 -0.7

125.1 -0.8

5.2 -4.9

5.2 -1.6

5.2 -0.1

5.7 11

5.8 2

5.6 -4.3

4.7 -16

4.4 -5.7

4.4 -0.3

4.4 0.4

121.1 1.3

123.5 2

125.1 1.3

126.7 1.3

128.4 1.4

127.9 -0.3

122.9 -3.9

122.4 -0.4

121.6 -0.7

120.6 -0.8

5.2 1.4

5.8 11.7

6.2 6.4

6.5 5.3

6.5 0.9

5.7 -13.2

4.6 -18.3

4.2 -9

3.8 -10.4

3.6 -4.2

18.1 1.1

18.2 0.4

18.9 3.6

19.5 3.3

20.3 3.9

19.7 -2.8

18.3 -7

18 -1.7

18.1 0.4

17.9 -0.7

2.5 13.1 2.5

2.6 13.2 2.4

2.7 13.8 2.4

2.7 14.1 2.6

2.8 14.9 2.6

2.8 14.2 2.7

2.6 13.3 2.4

2.4 13.2 2.3

2.5 13.3 2.3

2.4 13.3 2.2

2 -1.3

2.1 6.2

2 -5.8

2 -2.9

2 2.5

1.9 -7

1.6 -13.8

1.5 -6.7

1.5 -2.7

1.4 -3.5

6.2 -6.5

6.2 -0.6

6.2 1

6.5 4.1

6.4 -0.6

6.2 -3.4

6 -3.6

5.9 -1.1

5.8 -1.5

5.9 0.3

9.4 4.8

10.3 9.8

10.9 6.2

11.1 1.4

10.6 -4.5

10.7 1.7

10.3 -3.9

10.4 0.6

10.7 2.8

10.6 -0.4

20.3 2.4

21 3.1

21.4 2.2

21.4 0.1

21.3 -0.6

21.9 2.9

22 0.2

22.2 0.9

22.3 0.5

22.2 -0.5

12 -0.5

12.9 7.5

13.7 6

13.4 -2

14 4.1

14.5 3.6

13.4 -7.2

13 -3

12.9 -1.1

12.9 -0.3

4.5 5.4

4.7 3.4

4.5 -3

4.7 2.6

4.8 3.7

4.8 -0.5

4.5 -6.1

4.4 -2.6

4.4 -0.1

4.3 -1

3.3 3.6

3.4 3.8

3.7 5.9

3.7 2.1

3.8 3.1

4 5.2

4.3 5.4

4.7 11

4.5 -5.8

4.2 -5.1

40 1.6

38.9 -2.8

37.6 -3.3

37.9 0.9

38.6 1.8

38.5 -0.3

37.9 -1.6

38.1 0.6

37.8 -0.8

37.6 -0.6

7680.7

8001

8162.6

8436.3

8753.3

8717.1

8482.7

8600.8

8597.1

8598.2

242.4 1.2

245.8 1.4

250.4 1.9

256 2.2

259.5 1.4

261.9 0.9

263.6 0.6

264.8 0.5

266.6 0.7

268.7 0.8

126 0.8

126.5 0.4

130 2.7

132 1.6

137.2 3.9

139.2 1.5

137.4 -1.3

138.2 0.6

138.3 0

138.7 0.3

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

3.7

3.4

2.9

2.6

2.9

4.3

7.1

8

7.8

6.7

1738 1291 447

1868 1406 462

2143 1466 677

1921 1161 760

1452 767 685

1059 517 542

514 364 150

511 405 106

461 292 169

576 370 206

Ga i n e s v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL

July 2012

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

10.1 3.6 5.7 4.4

10.5 4.2 5.9 4.6

11 4.9 6.2 4.8

11.6 5.6 6.5 5.2

12.2 5 6.8 5.5

12.8 4.8 7.1 5.8

13.4 4.5 7.3 6

14 4.2 7.6 6.3

14.5 4.1 7.9 6.6

15.2 4.4 8.3 6.9

8.7 2.6

8.8 2.2

9.1 3

9.5 3.9

9.8 3.5

10.1 3.3

10.4 3

10.7 2.7

11 2.4

11.3 2.7

37.2 31.9

38.3 32.3

39.8 32.9

41.5 33.8

43.1 34.6

44.7 35.4

46.3 36.1

47.8 36.7

49.3 37.2

50.9 37.9

44.9 2.7

46.1 2.9

47.5 3

49 3.1

50.6 3.2

52.2 3.3

54 3.4

55.8 3.3

57.6 3.4

59.6 3.3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

126.3 1

127.7 1.1

129.5 1.4

131.5 1.6

133.2 1.3

134.5 0.9

135.4 0.7

136.4 0.7

137 0.5

138 0.7

4.6 2.9

4.7 3.2

4.8 2

4.8 0.7

4.8 -0.1

4.8 -0.2

4.8 -0.3

4.8 -0.2

4.8 -0.1

4.8 -0.2

121.8 1

123 1

124.7 1.4

126.7 1.6

128.4 1.3

129.6 1

130.6 0.8

131.6 0.7

132.2 0.5

133.2 0.7

3.7 2.2

4 9.3

4.6 13.1

5.1 10.9

5.4 6.3

5.6 3.1

5.6 1.1

5.6 0.5

5.7 0.8

5.7 0.6

18.2 1.4

18.3 0.8

18.6 1.3

18.9 1.8

19.1 1.2

19.2 0.5

19.2 0

19.2 -0.3

19.1 -0.4

19 -0.3

2.5 13.4 2.3

2.5 13.3 2.3

2.6 13.4 2.4

2.7 13.5 2.5

2.8 13.6 2.6

2.8 13.6 2.6

2.9 13.6 2.6

2.9 13.5 2.6

2.9 13.4 2.6

2.9 13.4 2.6

1.5 3.2

1.5 1.6

1.5 2.7

1.6 2.7

1.6 2.6

1.6 2.2

1.7 1.8

1.7 1.4

1.7 1.8

1.7 2

5.9 1.6

6 0.1

6 0.1

6 0

6 0.7

6 0.7

6.1 0.5

6.1 0.4

6.1 0

6.1 0.5

11.1 4.7

11.6 4.5

12.3 6

12.9 4.9

13.5 4.3

13.9 3.4

14.4 3

14.8 3.3

15.5 4.4

16.2 4.5

22.4 1

22.7 1.3

22.9 1

23.3 1.8

23.7 1.5

24 1.2

24.2 1.1

24.5 1

24.5 0.3

24.6 0.1

13.1 1.6

13 -0.2

12.9 -0.8

12.8 -0.7

12.7 -1

12.6 -0.9

12.5 -0.8

12.3 -1.2

12.2 -1.1

12.1 -1.2

4.4 1.6

4.4 0.5

4.4 -0.1

4.5 0.5

4.5 0.5

4.5 0.1

4.5 -0.1

4.5 -0.1

4.5 -0.3

4.5 -0.3

4.1 -3.2

4 -2.8

3.9 -1.9

3.9 -1.2

3.8 -0.8

3.8 -0.7

3.8 -0.4

4 4.8

3.8 -2.9

3.9 0.3

37.4 -0.4

37.4 0

37.6 0.4

37.8 0.6

38.1 0.7

38.4 0.8

38.7 0.8

38.9 0.5

39.1 0.5

39.4 0.8

8736.3

8907.1

9158.4

9414.4

9652.2

9874.7

10092.8

10311.1

10481.5

10683.3

271.3 1

274.2 1.1

277.4 1.1

280.5 1.1

283.6 1.1

286.5 1

289.3 1

292 0.9

294.7 0.9

297.5 1

140.8 1.5

142.6 1.3

143.5 0.6

144.1 0.4

144.8 0.5

145.7 0.6

146.8 0.8

148.1 0.9

149.2 0.7

150.2 0.7

6.5

6.4

6

5.6

5.4

5.3

5.1

5

5

4.9

769 467 303

1027 635 392

1360 859 501

1570 954 615

1691 989 703

1686 985 702

1651 974 677

1618 966 653

1568 944 624

1539 925 614

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

51

Gai n e svi lle

Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL

July 2012

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

15.8 4.5 8.6 7.3

16.6 4.5 8.9 7.6

17.3 4.5 9.3 8

18.1 4.5 9.7 8.4

18.9 4.6 10.1 8.8

19.7 4.5 10.6 9.2

20.6 4.5 11.1 9.5

21.5 4.4 11.6 9.9

22.5 4.5 12.1 10.4

23.6 4.6 12.7 10.8

11.6 2.7

11.9 2.5

12.2 2.5

12.5 2.5

12.8 2.6

13.1 2.5

13.5 2.5

13.8 2.4

14.1 2.4

14.5 2.6

52.8 38.5

54.6 39.2

56.5 39.8

58.5 40.4

60.7 41.1

62.8 41.8

65 42.4

67.3 43.1

69.8 43.8

72.4 44.5

61.6 3.5

63.8 3.4

66 3.5

68.3 3.6

70.8 3.6

73.3 3.6

76 3.6

78.7 3.6

81.7 3.8

84.7 3.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

52

138.8 0.6

139.3 0.4

140.2 0.6

141.3 0.8

142.6 0.9

143.9 0.9

145.3 1

146.8 1

148.1 0.9

149.8 1.1

4.7 -0.7

4.7 -0.9

4.6 -1

4.6 -1.2

4.5 -1.1

4.5 -1.1

4.4 -1

4.4 -0.9

4.4 -0.8

4.3 -0.8

134 0.6

134.6 0.4

135.6 0.7

136.7 0.9

138 1

139.4 1

140.9 1.1

142.4 1.1

143.8 0.9

145.4 1.1

5.8 1

5.9 1.4

6 2

6.1 2.5

6.3 2

6.3 1.5

6.4 1.3

6.5 1.4

6.7 2.2

6.8 2.2

19 -0.1

19 0

19.1 0.2

19.1 0.3

19.2 0.6

19.3 0.5

19.4 0.5

19.5 0.2

19.5 0.3

19.6 0.2

3 13.3 2.7

3 13.2 2.7

3 13.2 2.7

3 13.2 2.7

3 13.3 2.8

3 13.4 2.8

3 13.4 2.8

3 13.5 2.8

3 13.5 2.8

3 13.5 2.8

1.8 0.9

1.8 0.4

1.8 0.8

1.8 1.3

1.8 1.8

1.9 2.1

1.9 2.3

2 1.9

2 2

2 2

6.2 0.5

6.2 0.4

6.2 0.6

6.3 0.7

6.3 0.9

6.4 1.1

6.5 1.2

6.5 1.1

6.6 1.1

6.7 1.1

16.7 3.1

17 1.7

17.4 2.6

18 3.1

18.5 2.7

19 2.8

19.6 3.2

20.2 3

20.9 3.8

21.9 4.3

24.6 0.1

24.6 0

24.6 0.1

24.7 0.4

24.9 0.7

25.1 0.9

25.4 1

25.6 0.8

25.7 0.7

25.9 0.7

11.9 -1.1

11.9 -0.6

11.8 -0.4

11.8 -0.1

11.8 0.4

11.9 0.6

12 0.7

12.1 0.5

12.1 0.7

12.2 0.7

4.4 -0.2

4.4 -0.1

4.5 0.5

4.5 0.6

4.5 0.5

4.5 0.7

4.6 0.7

4.6 0.7

4.6 0.4

4.6 0.2

3.9 1.1

4 1.6

4 1.5

4.1 1.5

4.1 1.4

4.2 1.3

4.2 1.2

4.6 7.3

4.4 -3.5

4.4 1.2

39.7 0.7

39.9 0.5

40.2 0.5

40.3 0.4

40.5 0.5

40.7 0.4

40.9 0.4

41 0.3

41.1 0.3

41.2 0.3

10926.4

11174.9

11436.5

11699.4

11961.3

12227.5

12506.2

12814.7

13114.4

13431.7

300.4 1

303.2 0.9

306 0.9

308.8 0.9

311.6 0.9

314.4 0.9

317.2 0.9

320 0.9

322.7 0.9

325.4 0.9

151.4 0.8

152.7 0.8

153.8 0.7

155 0.8

156.3 0.8

157.6 0.9

159 0.8

160.3 0.8

161.7 0.8

163 0.8

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

4.8

4.8

4.7

4.7

4.6

4.5

4.5

4.4

4.3

4.3

1549 950 599

1594 1010 584

1628 1036 592

1656 1045 611

1652 1023 629

1633 992 641

1615 977 639

1609 985 624

1589 977 611

1544 943 601

Ga i n e s v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL

July 2012

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

24.6 4.4 13.3 11.3

25.6 4.2 13.8 11.8

26.7 4.2 14.4 12.3

27.8 4.2 14.9 12.9

29 4.1 15.5 13.5

30.2 4.2 16.1 14.1

31.4 4.1 16.8 14.7

32.7 4.1 17.4 15.3

34.1 4.1 18.1 15.9

35.5 4.2 18.9 16.6

14.8 2.3

15.1 2.1

15.5 2.2

15.8 2.2

16.1 2.1

16.5 2.2

16.8 2.1

17.2 2.1

17.5 2

17.9 2.1

74.9 45.2

77.4 45.8

80 46.4

82.7 47

85.5 47.6

88.4 48.3

91.3 48.9

94.3 49.5

97.4 50.1

100.7 50.8

87.7 3.5

90.7 3.5

93.8 3.4

97 3.4

100.3 3.4

103.7 3.4

107.2 3.4

110.8 3.4

114.6 3.4

118.4 3.3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

150.9 0.8

151.7 0.5

152.5 0.5

153.3 0.6

154.1 0.5

155 0.6

155.9 0.6

156.9 0.7

157.8 0.5

158.8 0.7

4.3 -1

4.3 -0.8

4.2 -0.9

4.2 -0.8

4.2 -0.7

4.1 -0.6

4.1 -0.4

4.1 -0.4

4.1 -0.4

4.1 -0.4

146.6 0.8

147.4 0.6

148.2 0.6

149.1 0.6

150 0.6

150.9 0.6

151.8 0.6

152.8 0.7

153.7 0.6

154.8 0.7

6.9 1.8

7 1.2

7.1 1.2

7.2 1.4

7.3 1.3

7.4 1.3

7.5 1.1

7.5 0.4

7.5 0.6

7.6 1

19.6 0.1

19.6 -0.1

19.6 -0.1

19.6 0

19.6 0

19.6 0.1

19.6 0.1

19.6 0.1

19.7 0.2

19.7 0.2

3 13.6 2.8

3 13.6 2.8

3 13.6 2.8

3 13.6 2.8

3 13.7 2.7

3 13.7 2.7

3 13.7 2.7

3 13.8 2.7

3 13.8 2.6

3 13.8 2.6

2.1 2

2.1 2

2.2 2.2

2.2 2.3

2.3 2.2

2.3 2.2

2.4 2.3

2.4 2.3

2.5 2.3

2.5 2.3

6.7 0.9

6.8 0.7

6.8 0.8

6.9 0.8

6.9 0.7

7 0.7

7 0.6

7 0.1

7 -0.2

7 -0.3

22.5 2.7

22.9 2

23.4 1.9

23.8 1.9

24.2 1.9

24.7 1.8

25.1 1.8

25.7 2.2

26.3 2.5

27 2.7

26 0.4

26.1 0.1

26.1 0.1

26.1 0.2

26.2 0.1

26.2 0.2

26.3 0.2

26.3 0.3

26.4 0.3

26.5 0.4

12.3 0.5

12.3 0.3

12.4 0.4

12.4 0.4

12.5 0.3

12.5 0.4

12.6 0.4

12.6 0.2

12.6 0.3

12.7 0.2

4.6 0.3

4.7 0.1

4.7 0.1

4.7 0.2

4.7 0

4.7 0

4.7 0

4.7 -0.1

4.7 -0.2

4.6 -0.3

4.5 1.1

4.6 1.2

4.6 1.2

4.7 1.2

4.7 1.1

4.8 1

4.8 0.9

5 4.6

4.9 -2.6

5 1.2

41.3 0.2

41.4 0.2

41.5 0.2

41.6 0.2

41.7 0.2

41.8 0.2

41.8 0.2

41.9 0.2

42 0.2

42.1 0.2

13726.8

14020

14328.3

14652.4

14991.9

15335.3

15694.6

16083.9

16487.4

16921.1

328.2 0.8

330.9 0.8

333.6 0.8

336.3 0.8

339 0.8

341.7 0.8

344.4 0.8

347.1 0.8

349.8 0.8

352.2 0.7

164.3 0.8

165.5 0.8

166.8 0.7

168 0.7

169.1 0.7

170.2 0.7

171.4 0.7

172.4 0.6

173.4 0.6

174.4 0.5

4.2

4.2

4.2

4.1

4.1

4.1

4.1

4.1

4.1

4.1

1522 937 585

1522 952 570

1527 971 556

1524 983 542

1497 974 523

1472 963 509

1452 953 499

1430 941 489

1416 941 476

1401 935 466

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

53

Jackso nvi lle

Profiles

Outlook Summaries

The Jacksonville MSA is comprised of Baker, Clay, Duval, Nassau and St. Johns counties. It is located on the northeast coast of Florida and is home to several major U.S. military bases, such as the Jacksonville Naval Air Station, as well as shipyards, the University of North Florida, and the Jacksonville International Airport.

The Jacksonville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to see strong growth in most of the economic indicators, relative to the other MSAs studied. Personal income will see an average growth rate of 5.0 percent, the third highest of the twelve MSAs. The per capita income level will also be the third highest at 37.9. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.9 percent, while average annual wage is expected to be at a level of 51.2. Population growth will be moderate at an average annual rate of 1.5 percent. Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 58,377.65 (Mill). Employment growth is expected to be 2.0 percent annually. Unemployment will average 7.8 percent in the MSA. The fastest growing sector in the Jacksonville MSA will be Construction and Mining, which will see an average annual growth rate of 6.1 percent. Following that sector is the Professional and Business Services sector, with an annual growth rate of 4.0 percent, and then the Trade, Transportation, and Utilities sector with a 2.2 percent growth rate. The State and Local Government and the Federal Government sectors will experience a decline of -0.1 and -1.9 percent, respectively.

Quick Facts:

• Metro population estimate of 1,360,251 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Baker County population estimate of 27,154 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Clay County population estimate of 192,370 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Duval County population estimate of 870,709 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Nassau County population estimate of 74,195 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • St. Johns County population estimate of 195,823 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • A civilian labor force of 690,295 in April of 2012 for the Metro area (Florida Regional Economic Database). • An unemployment rate of 7.9% not seasonally adjusted for the entire Metro in April of 2012. This amounts to 54,534 unemployed people (Florida Regional Economic Database). Top Area Employers:

• • • • • • • • • •

Naval Air Station Jacksonville – 25,240 Duval County Public Schools – 14,480 Naval Station Mayport – 12,670 City of Jacksonville – 8,820 Baptist Health Systems – 8,270 Bank of America Merrill Lynch – 6,400 Blue Cross & Blue Shield of Florida – 6,000 Citibank (Citi-cards) – 5,000 Mayo Clinic – 4,970 United Parcel Service – 4,100

Source: Duval County Public Schools - City of Jacksonville and Chamber of Commerce Records 54

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

Metro News Summaries Outsourcing Company Alorica to lay off 289 in Palatka • Alorica, a customer management and outsourcing company, is closing its Palataka facility and laying off all 289 employees.

• A company spokeswoman described the layoffs as a result of their clients’ changing business requirements. • The Chino, California based company’s 40 domestic near shore and offshore management centers, include seven others in Florida.

Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, April 30, 2012

J ac k s o n v i l l e

EverBank files IPO

• Jacksonville-based EverBank Financial Corp, the largest bank in the state, became a publicly traded company on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol “EVER.” • The initial public offering included 19.2 million shares at $10 per share. EverBank directors and executive officers will retain 41.06% of the bank’s common shares.

• The bank remains one of the strongest in NE Florida, and expects a net income between $10 million and $13 million for Q1 2012, compared to $9.4 million Q1 2011. Total assets are expected to increase from $11.8 billion Q1 2011 to $13.8 billion Q1 2012.

Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, May 2, 2012 Mile Point heads to Congress

• The Mile Point project will head to Congress after securing all necessary signatures on the Army Corps of Engineers’ Chief of Engineers Report.

• The new $16.7 million primary care center is to be built near the intersection of Interstate 294 East Beltway and Gate Parkway, and will open in 2013.

Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, May 25, 2012

Disney to use Jacksonville Port to ship to Orlando Parks

• On June 19, Walt Disney Parks and Resorts began using Jacksonville’s port to ship merchandise to its Central Florida Theme Parks.

• The port will handle 75% of the merchandise, which had previously been routed through Savannah, Georgia.

• The Disney goods will represent less than 1% of Jacksonville business, but Governor Scott believes it demonstrates Florida’s ports can handle a larger share of cargo bound for Florida-based businesses.

Source: The Florida Times Union, June 19, 2012

• The project plans to alleviate crosscurrents from the Mile Point shore, which currently poses as an obstacle to port growth by preventing large ships from docking nearly 2/3 of days.

• The project is currently in the design phase, and is expected to be completed by April 2013.

Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, May 3, 2012

Mayo Clinic investing $100M to accommodate growth

• Mayo Clinic Florida plans to invest nearly $100 million to add on to the existing hospital and develop a new primary care center. • An $80 million hospital expansion will add two floors and 90 beds, allowing the nearly 100% occupied building to grow for the next five years.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

55

Jackso nvi lle Jacksonville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manuf acturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Inf ormation Financial Activities Prof essional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

(percent)

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 FL Unemployment Rate Jacksonville Unemployment Rate

160000.0 140000.0 120000.0 100000.0 80000.0 60000.0 40000.0 20000.0

Jacksonville Payroll Employment 1000.0

(Thousands)

900.0

1.6

1.8

(Millions 2000 $)

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 Real Gross Metro Product

Jacksonville Real Personal Income 10.0%

(percent change year ago)

0.0%

700.0 600.0

-5.0%

500.0

56

1.4

5.0%

800.0

400.0

1.2

Jacksonville Real Gross Metro Product

Florida & Jacksonville Unemployment Rate 12.0%

1

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 Jacksonville Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

-10.0%

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 Real Personal Income

J ac k s o n v i l l e

Quarterly Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

July 2012 Forecast

2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

57.8 3.4 30 27.8

58.6 4.4 30.4 28.2

59.4 4.9 30.8 28.6

60 5 31.2 28.9

60.7 5 31.5 29.2

61.4 4.7 31.8 29.6

62.1 4.5 32.2 29.9

63.1 5.1 32.6 30.5

63.8 5.1 33 30.9

64.7 5.4 33.4 31.3

65.6 5.7 33.8 31.8

66.6 5.7 34.3 32.4

67.6 5.9 34.7 32.9

68.5 5.9 35.2 33.4

69.5 5.9 35.6 33.9

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

50.1 1.9

50.8 3.4

51.3 4

51.7 4.4

52.2 4.3

52.6 3.5

53 3.2

53.5 3.4

53.9 3.1

54.3 3.3

54.9 3.6

55.5 3.7

56 4

56.5 4.1

57.1 4.1

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

42.1 36.5

42.5 36.9

43 37.1

43.3 37.3

43.6 37.5

43.9 37.6

44.3 37.7

44.8 38

45.1 38.1

45.5 38.2

45.9 38.4

46.5 38.7

46.9 38.9

47.4 39.1

47.8 39.3

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

49 3.4

49.3 2.7

49.7 2.6

50 2.7

50.3 2.7

50.6 2.5

50.9 2.4

51.3 2.6

51.6 2.7

52 2.8

52.4 2.9

52.8 2.9

53.2 3

53.6 3

53.9 2.9

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

594.8 0.8

597.7 1.6

601.4 1.5

605.1 2

608.1 2.2

611.1 2.2

613.9 2.1

616.8 1.9

620.2 2

623.8 2.1

627.9 2.3

631.5 2.4

635.1 2.4

638.9 2.4

642.9 2.4

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

26.8 -0.8

26.9 0.9

27 1.3

27.1 1.2

27.4 2.4

27.6 2.7

27.8 3.2

28 3.4

28.2 2.9

28.4 2.7

28.6 2.6

28.7 2.4

28.8 2.1

28.9 1.7

28.9 1.3

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

568 0.9

570.8 1.6

574.4 1.5

578 2.1

580.7 2.2

583.5 2.2

586.1 2

588.8 1.9

592 1.9

595.4 2

599.3 2.3

602.8 2.4

606.3 2.4

610 2.5

613.9 2.4

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

25.9 -3.8

25.8 -1.3

25.9 -1.5

26.1 0.2

26.4 2.2

26.9 4.1

27.5 6.2

28.2 8.1

29 9.6

29.8 10.8

30.8 12

31.9 13

32.9 13.5

33.9 13.7

34.8 12.9

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

127.4 2.2

128.2 2.9

129 2.5

129.9 2.2

130.5 2.4

131.4 2.5

132 2.3

132.4 1.9

133 1.9

133.7 1.8

134.5 1.9

135 2

135.6 1.9

136.2 1.9

137.1 2

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

25.4 72.1 30

25.5 72.4 30.2

25.8 72.8 30.4

26 73 30.8

26.1 73.1 31.1

26.3 73.4 31.4

26.5 73.5 31.6

26.6 73.3 31.8

26.7 73.4 32

27 73.5 32.3

27.2 73.7 32.6

27.4 73.8 32.9

27.6 74 33.1

27.8 74.3 33.3

28 74.7 33.5

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

9.6 0.7

9.6 1.5

9.7 1

9.8 2.3

9.9 3.9

10 4.5

10 3.2

10.1 3

10.1 2

10.1 1.3

10.2 1.3

10.3 1.5

10.3 1.5

10.3 1.8

10.3 1.6

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

58.2 0.1

58.5 1.5

58.9 1.5

59.2 2.4

59.4 2

59.5 1.8

59.6 1.3

59.6 0.7

59.6 0.4

59.6 0.2

59.6 0

59.6 0

59.7 0.1

59.9 0.4

59.9 0.5

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

93.1 2.5

93.7 2.2

95.1 1.4

96.6 4

97.7 4.9

98.5 5.1

99.1 4.2

99.7 3.2

101 3.4

102.6 4.2

104.3 5.3

105.5 5.8

106.7 5.6

107.8 5.1

109 4.5

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

88.5 1.4

89.2 1.9

89.6 2.2

89.7 1.7

89.9 1.6

90.2 1.2

90.5 1

91.2 1.7

91.7 2

92 2

92.5 2.2

92.9 1.9

93.6 2.1

94.3 2.5

95 2.8

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

66.4 1.7

67 3.2

67.5 3.2

68 3.3

68.3 2.9

68.5 2.3

68.8 1.9

69.1 1.5

69.1 1.1

69 0.6

68.9 0.1

69 -0.1

68.9 -0.2

68.9 -0.2

69 0

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

23 -1.7

23.1 -0.4

23.2 0.3

23.3 1.7

23.4 1.4

23.4 1.4

23.5 1.3

23.6 0.9

23.6 0.9

23.6 0.8

23.6 0.4

23.6 0.1

23.6 0

23.6 -0.2

23.6 0

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

17.3 -0.8

17.2 0.5

17.1 -0.5

17 -2.6

16.9 -2.8

16.7 -2.9

16.6 -2.8

16.5 -2.9

16.4 -2.8

16.3 -2.7

16.2 -2.5

16.1 -2.3

16.1 -2

16 -1.7

16 -1.5

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

58.5 -1.7

58.4 -1.4

58.3 -1

58.3 -0.2

58.3 -0.3

58.3 -0.2

58.3 0

58.4 0.2

58.5 0.3

58.6 0.5

58.7 0.7

58.8 0.7

59 0.9

59.1 1

59.3 0.9

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil)

55604 55989.2 56440.7 56823.3 57164.8 57501.7 57878.2 58257.7

58749 59298.2 59913.9 60465.7 61013.8 61576.1 62137.8

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1373.5 1

1378 1.1

1382.6 1.2

1387.5 1.3

1392.6 1.4

1397.8 1.4

1403.2 1.5

1408.6 1.5

1414.5 1.6

1421.2 1.7

1428 1.8

1434.5 1.8

1440.7 1.9

1447 1.8

1453.4 1.8

696.3 0.8

698.7 1

701.2 0.9

702.9 1.1

704.8 1.2

706.6 1.1

709.5 1.2

711.6 1.2

713.7 1.3

715.8 1.3

717.8 1.2

719.7 1.1

722.4 1.2

725.5 1.4

727.7 1.4

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

8

8

7.9

7.9

8

8

8

7.9

7.8

7.8

7.7

7.5

7.3

7.2

7

4907 3774 1132

5399 3796 1603

5838 3792 2046

6110 3928 2181

6642 4334 2308

7268 4795 2473

7860 5269 2591

8397 5667 2731

9110 6269 2840

9949 6949 3000

10745 7517 3229

11511 8071 3440

12211 8626 3585

12794 9067 3727

13212 9339 3873

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

57

Jackso nvi lle

Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

July 2012

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

38.5 6.1 22.4 16.2

41.8 8.5 23.9 17.9

45.6 9 25.6 20

50.3 10.2 27.9 22.3

52.4 4.3 29.1 23.3

53.9 2.9 28.8 25.2

51.3 -5 27.4 23.9

53.3 4.1 27.9 25.4

56 5 29 27

58.3 4 30.2 28

40.7 4

43.1 5.8

45.6 5.9

48.9 7.3

49.7 1.5

49.5 -0.4

47 -5.1

48 2.2

49.2 2.5

50.5 2.6

32.2 34

34.1 35.1

36.4 36.4

39.1 38.1

40.1 38

40.7 37.4

38.3 35.1

39.5 35.6

41.1 36.1

42.3 36.7

38 6.4

39.5 4.2

40.8 3.2

43 5.5

44.3 3

44.8 1.1

45.2 0.8

46.4 2.8

47.7 2.8

49.2 3.1

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

58

563 0.4

578.5 2.8

603.8 4.4

624.8 3.5

633.9 1.5

621.7 -1.9

586.5 -5.7

582.9 -0.6

590.1 1.2

596.7 1.1

33.3 -3.1

33.3 -0.2

33.5 0.8

33.3 -0.8

32.6 -2.2

31.9 -1.9

28.7 -10.1

26.9 -6.2

26.8 -0.5

26.9 0.2

529.7 0.7

545.3 2.9

570.3 4.6

591.5 3.7

601.4 1.7

589.8 -1.9

557.7 -5.4

556 -0.3

563.3 1.3

569.9 1.2

36.6 7.4

40.9 11.6

45.4 11

50 10.3

49.2 -1.6

43 -12.6

32.8 -23.8

28.5 -13

26.6 -6.8

25.9 -2.5

124.9 0.4

128.1 2.5

132.7 3.6

136.9 3.1

139.2 1.7

136.4 -2.1

126.9 -7

124.3 -2

124.8 0.4

127.9 2.5

26.8 68.8 29.3

26.9 71.2 30.1

27.8 73.9 31.1

29.9 74.8 32.2

30.2 76.5 32.5

28.6 75.5 32.3

26.7 69.5 30.7

25.6 68.7 30

25.2 69.5 30.1

25.5 72.4 30.1

12.4 -6.1

11.6 -6.4

11.9 2.4

11.1 -6.8

10.2 -8.5

10.2 0.7

10.3 1.2

10.2 -1.7

9.6 -6

9.6 0.5

57.6 -0.1

58.4 1.4

59.3 1.4

59.8 1

60.2 0.5

59.8 -0.7

55.7 -6.7

55.9 0.3

57.9 3.6

58.3 0.7

82.8 -2.9

82.5 -0.3

88.2 6.8

95.5 8.3

94.4 -1.2

88.1 -6.6

83.2 -5.5

86.1 3.5

91.7 6.5

93.7 2.1

64.7 1.9

68 5

71.3 4.9

74.5 4.5

77.9 4.6

81.7 4.9

83.7 2.4

85.6 2.3

87.4 2.1

88.9 1.7

53.3 1.6

56.3 5.5

60.4 7.3

62.1 2.9

65.9 6.1

67.3 2.1

64.7 -3.9

64.4 -0.5

65.2 1.3

66.7 2.3

25.7 3

26.4 2.7

26.8 1.5

27.6 3.1

28.3 2.3

26.6 -5.9

24 -9.7

23.8 -0.7

23.4 -2

23.1 -1.2

18 1.5

17.8 -1.2

17.4 -2.3

16.9 -2.6

17 0.6

17.1 0.6

17.5 2.3

18 2.8

17.3 -3.9

17.3 -0.3

53.6 1.6

55.4 3.3

57.1 3

57.1 0

59.2 3.7

59.5 0.6

58.8 -1.2

59 0.3

59.3 0.5

58.4 -1.6

47589.2

49551.8

52431.6

54948.4

55671.1

54454.6

53324.6

54269.7

54872.7

55815.5

1197.2 2

1225.9 2.4

1253.6 2.3

1284.8 2.5

1308.2 1.8

1324 1.2

1336.9 1

1349.4 0.9

1361.9 0.9

1376 1

599.4 0.3

607.5 1.4

630.4 3.8

650.3 3.2

677.2 4.1

688.2 1.6

679.9 -1.2

685.1 0.8

692.5 1.1

697.9 0.8

5

4.6

3.7

3.2

3.8

5.8

9.8

10.9

10.1

8.1

15544 13143 2402

18124 14179 3944

23970 18818 5152

16722 12299 4423

10462 7517 2944

7054 5174 1879

4938 3403 1535

3704 3553 151

3728 3286 442

5234 3801 1433

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

J ac k s o n v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

July 2012

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

61.1 4.8 31.7 29.4

64.3 5.3 33.2 31.1

68.1 5.8 35 33.1

72.2 6.1 36.7 35.5

76.4 5.8 38.7 37.8

80.7 5.6 40.6 40.1

85 5.3 42.5 42.5

89.3 5 44.4 44.9

93.6 4.9 46.4 47.2

98.5 5.1 48.6 49.8

52.4 3.8

54.1 3.4

56.3 4

58.8 4.5

61.3 4.3

63.8 4.1

66.2 3.9

68.6 3.5

70.8 3.2

73.2 3.5

43.8 37.5

45.3 38.2

47.1 39

49.1 40

51.1 41

53.1 42

55 42.8

56.8 43.6

58.6 44.3

60.6 45.1

50.5 2.6

51.8 2.7

53.4 3

54.9 2.8

56.6 3.1

58.5 3.3

60.4 3.4

62.4 3.2

64.4 3.3

66.6 3.3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

609.6 2.2

622.1 2.1

637.1 2.4

651.6 2.3

665.5 2.1

677.1 1.7

686.2 1.3

694.9 1.3

703.5 1.2

713.3 1.4

27.5 2.4

28.3 2.9

28.8 1.8

28.9 0.3

28.8 -0.4

28.7 -0.2

28.6 -0.3

28.6 -0.2

28.5 -0.4

28.3 -0.4

582.1 2.1

593.8 2

608.3 2.4

622.7 2.4

636.7 2.2

648.3 1.8

657.5 1.4

666.4 1.3

675 1.3

685 1.5

26.7 3.2

29.5 10.2

33.4 13.3

36.6 9.7

38.9 6.2

40.4 4

41.2 1.9

41.7 1.3

42.4 1.6

43 1.4

131 2.4

133.4 1.9

136 1.9

138.8 2.1

141.3 1.8

142.9 1.1

143.5 0.5

143.8 0.2

143.9 0.1

144.3 0.2

26.2 73.2 31.2

26.9 73.5 32.2

27.7 74.2 33.2

28.4 75.3 34.2

29.2 76 35.2

29.8 76.3 35.9

30.2 76.5 36.1

30.6 76.5 36.1

30.9 76.2 36.3

31.2 76 36.5

9.9 3.5

10.1 1.9

10.3 1.6

10.4 1.2

10.6 1.9

10.8 2

11 1.9

11.2 1.4

11.4 1.9

11.7 2.1

59.4 1.9

59.6 0.3

59.8 0.3

60.2 0.7

61.2 1.5

62 1.4

62.7 1

63.1 0.8

63.5 0.6

64.1 0.9

98 4.5

101.9 4

107.2 5.2

111.3 3.8

116.1 4.3

120.9 4.1

125.4 3.7

130 3.7

136.4 4.9

143.3 5.1

90.1 1.4

91.8 2

94 2.3

97.2 3.4

99.8 2.7

101.9 2

103.6 1.8

105.4 1.6

106.3 0.9

107 0.7

68.4 2.6

69 0.8

68.9 -0.1

68.9 0

68.8 -0.2

68.5 -0.4

68.3 -0.3

67.9 -0.6

67.5 -0.5

67.1 -0.6

23.4 1.5

23.6 0.8

23.6 0

23.7 0.4

23.8 0.7

24 0.6

24.1 0.5

24.2 0.5

24.3 0.4

24.4 0.3

16.8 -2.8

16.3 -2.7

16 -1.9

15.9 -1

15.7 -0.8

15.6 -0.7

15.6 -0.4

16.3 4.4

15.9 -2.4

15.9 0.4

58.3 -0.2

58.5 0.4

59.1 0.9

59.6 1

60.4 1.2

61.3 1.5

62.1 1.3

62.7 1

63.3 1

64.2 1.3

57342

59054.7

61298.4

63458

65617.6

67737.5

69814.9

71855.7

73710.8

75745.9

1395.3 1.4

1418.1 1.6

1443.9 1.8

1469.5 1.8

1494.9 1.7

1520.2 1.7

1546.3 1.7

1572.5 1.7

1598.7 1.7

1625.1 1.6

705.9 1.2

714.7 1.2

723.8 1.3

734.3 1.5

745.6 1.5

756.7 1.5

766.7 1.3

776.4 1.3

785.9 1.2

795.8 1.3

8

7.8

7.3

6.6

6.2

5.8

5.5

5.4

5.4

5.4

6970 4582 2388

9550 6600 2950

12432 8776 3656

14159 9699 4460

15069 10028 5041

14928 9970 4958

14736 9947 4789

14515 9961 4554

14075 9781 4294

13770 9642 4128

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

59

Jackso nvi lle

Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

July 2012

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

103.6 5.3 50.9 52.8

109.1 5.2 53.2 55.9

114.8 5.3 55.8 59.1

120.9 5.3 58.7 62.3

127.4 5.4 61.7 65.8

134.1 5.3 64.9 69.2

141.2 5.3 68.5 72.7

148.5 5.2 72.1 76.4

156.5 5.3 76.1 80.4

165 5.4 80.4 84.6

75.7 3.4

78.2 3.3

80.8 3.3

83.5 3.3

86.4 3.4

89.2 3.3

92.1 3.3

95.1 3.2

98.2 3.3

101.5 3.4

62.7 45.9

65 46.6

67.3 47.4

69.8 48.2

72.4 49.1

75.1 49.9

77.9 50.8

80.7 51.6

83.8 52.6

87.1 53.6

68.9 3.4

71.3 3.5

73.8 3.5

76.4 3.6

79.2 3.6

82 3.6

85 3.7

88.1 3.6

91.4 3.7

94.6 3.6

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

60

722.1 1.2

729.4 1

739 1.3

750.5 1.5

762.4 1.6

774.8 1.6

788.5 1.8

802.2 1.7

816.4 1.8

832.7 2

28.1 -1

27.8 -1

27.4 -1.3

27 -1.4

26.7 -1.3

26.3 -1.4

26 -1.3

25.7 -1.2

25.4 -1

25.1 -1.1

694 1.3

701.6 1.1

711.6 1.4

723.4 1.7

735.8 1.7

748.6 1.7

762.5 1.9

776.5 1.8

791.1 1.9

807.6 2.1

43.8 1.8

44.8 2.2

46 2.8

47.4 3

48.7 2.7

49.7 2.2

50.7 1.9

51.7 2.1

53.2 2.8

54.7 2.9

144.9 0.4

145.7 0.5

146.7 0.7

147.7 0.7

148.9 0.8

150.1 0.8

151.2 0.8

151.9 0.4

152.7 0.5

153.3 0.4

31.5 75.9 36.9

31.7 75.9 37.4

32 76.1 37.9

32.3 76.4 38.3

32.6 77 38.7

32.7 77.8 38.9

32.8 78.4 39.3

32.9 78.9 39.4

33.1 79.4 39.6

33.1 79.9 39.6

11.8 1.1

11.8 0.5

11.9 0.9

12.1 1.4

12.4 1.9

12.6 2.2

12.9 2.4

13.2 2

13.5 2.1

13.8 2.1

64.7 1

65.4 1

66.1 1.2

67 1.3

67.9 1.5

69.1 1.7

70.3 1.7

71.5 1.7

72.7 1.7

73.9 1.6

148.6 3.7

152 2.3

156.8 3.2

162.7 3.7

168 3.3

173.6 3.3

180.1 3.7

186.5 3.5

194.8 4.4

204.2 4.9

107.8 0.7

108.4 0.6

109.2 0.7

110.3 1

111.7 1.3

113.4 1.4

115.1 1.5

116.7 1.4

118.2 1.3

119.8 1.3

66.8 -0.4

66.9 0

67 0.2

67.4 0.6

68.1 1.1

69 1.3

69.9 1.4

70.7 1.1

71.7 1.3

72.6 1.3

24.6 0.7

24.8 0.9

25.1 1.2

25.4 1.2

25.7 1.2

26 1.3

26.4 1.4

26.7 1.3

27 1.1

27.2 0.8

16.1 0.9

16.3 1.2

16.5 1.1

16.6 1

16.8 1

16.9 0.9

17.1 0.8

18.3 7.1

17.6 -4.1

17.7 0.9

64.9 1.2

65.6 1

66.3 1

66.9 1

67.5 1

68.1 0.9

68.8 0.9

69.3 0.8

69.9 0.8

70.4 0.8

78123

80600.2

83230.7

85927.6

88617.4

91362.8

94244.8

97314.7

100518

103853

1651.8 1.6

1678.5 1.6

1705.4 1.6

1732.3 1.6

1759.3 1.6

1786.5 1.5

1813.6 1.5

1840.7 1.5

1867.8 1.5

1894.9 1.4

806.9 1.4

818.2 1.4

828.8 1.3

840.1 1.4

852 1.4

864.3 1.4

876.8 1.4

889.4 1.4

902.2 1.4

915.1 1.4

5.3

5.2

5.1

5

4.9

4.9

4.8

4.7

4.6

4.6

13829 9893 3936

14363 10558 3804

14677 10876 3802

14849 11022 3827

14683 10814 3869

14426 10525 3902

14243 10390 3852

14242 10499 3743

14083 10443 3641

13676 10112 3564

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

J ac k s o n v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

July 2012

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

173.6 5.2 84.4 89.1

182.2 5 88.4 93.8

191.5 5.1 92.6 98.9

201.2 5.1 96.9 104.3

211.2 5 101.5 109.8

221.9 5 106.2 115.7

232.9 5 111.1 121.8

244.2 4.9 116.3 128

256.5 5 122 134.5

269.6 5.1 128.2 141.5

104.7 3.1

107.8 2.9

111 3

114.4 3

117.7 2.9

121.2 3

124.7 2.9

128.2 2.8

132 2.9

136 3

90.3 54.5

93.5 55.3

96.9 56.2

100.5 57.1

104.1 58

107.9 58.9

111.7 59.9

115.7 60.7

120 61.7

124.5 62.8

98 3.5

101.4 3.5

104.9 3.5

108.6 3.5

112.3 3.5

116.2 3.4

120.2 3.4

124.3 3.4

128.9 3.7

133.6 3.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

845.3 1.5

855.4 1.2

865.7 1.2

876.5 1.2

886.9 1.2

897.4 1.2

908.3 1.2

919.6 1.2

930.6 1.2

943.2 1.3

24.8 -1.2

24.6 -1.1

24.3 -1.1

24.1 -1

23.8 -0.9

23.6 -0.9

23.5 -0.6

23.3 -0.6

23.2 -0.6

23.1 -0.6

820.5 1.6

830.9 1.3

841.4 1.3

852.4 1.3

863 1.2

873.8 1.2

884.8 1.3

896.2 1.3

907.4 1.2

920.1 1.4

56.1 2.5

57.1 1.9

58.2 1.9

59.5 2.1

60.7 2.1

61.9 2

63.1 1.9

63.9 1.2

64.9 1.5

66 1.8

153.8 0.3

153.9 0.1

154 0.1

154.1 0.1

154.3 0.1

154.5 0.1

154.7 0.2

154.9 0.1

155.3 0.2

155.9 0.4

33.2 80.4 39.6

33.1 80.8 39.4

33.1 81.2 39.1

33 81.6 38.8

33 82.1 38.5

32.9 82.7 38.2

32.8 83.2 37.8

32.9 83.7 37.5

33.1 84.2 37.2

33.4 84.6 37

14 2.1

14.3 2.2

14.7 2.4

15 2.4

15.4 2.4

15.8 2.4

16.1 2.5

16.5 2.4

16.9 2.4

17.3 2.4

75 1.5

75.9 1.3

77 1.4

78.1 1.4

79.1 1.3

80.1 1.2

81 1.2

81.5 0.7

81.8 0.4

82.1 0.3

211 3.3

216.5 2.6

221.9 2.5

227.4 2.5

232.9 2.4

238.2 2.3

243.8 2.4

250 2.5

257.2 2.9

264.8 3

120.9 1

121.8 0.7

122.7 0.7

123.6 0.8

124.5 0.7

125.6 0.8

126.5 0.8

127.6 0.8

128.7 0.9

129.9 0.9

73.5 1.2

74.1 0.9

74.9 1.1

75.7 1

76.5 1

77.3 1.1

78.1 1.1

78.8 0.9

79.6 1

80.3 0.9

27.5 0.9

27.7 0.8

27.9 0.8

28.2 0.9

28.4 0.7

28.5 0.6

28.7 0.7

28.9 0.6

29.1 0.5

29.2 0.4

17.8 0.8

18 0.8

18.1 0.9

18.3 0.8

18.4 0.8

18.6 0.7

18.7 0.6

19.5 4.6

18.9 -3.2

19.1 0.9

70.9 0.7

71.4 0.7

71.9 0.7

72.4 0.7

72.9 0.7

73.4 0.7

74 0.7

74.5 0.7

75 0.7

75.5 0.7

107008

110142

113410

116858

120437

124080

127896

131897

136178

140702

1921.9 1.4

1948.9 1.4

1975.8 1.4

2002.8 1.4

2029.7 1.3

2056.8 1.3

2083.9 1.3

2111 1.3

2138.3 1.3

2165.6 1.3

927.9 1.4

940.7 1.4

953.4 1.4

966.1 1.3

978.7 1.3

991.3 1.3

1004.1 1.3

1016.3 1.2

1028.3 1.2

1040.2 1.2

4.5

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

13560 10087 3473

13662 10282 3381

13811 10504 3307

13882 10658 3224

13692 10577 3116

13499 10462 3037

13355 10373 2982

13195 10269 2926

13161 10302 2859

13081 10275 2805

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

61

Lak e l an d

Profiles

Outlook Summaries

The Lakeland MSA is comprised only of Polk County. It is located in the western-center of the state and is heavily agriculturally based, especially in citrus. It is home to a few attractions such as Fantasy of Flight and Legoland Florida. Also, the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Indians conduct spring training in Lakeland and Winter Haven, respectively.

The Lakeland Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show relatively low levels of growth in most of the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow 4.7 percent annually, while the per capita income level will be at 29.9, the lowest of the twelve MSAs. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.7 percent, and the average annual wage level is expected to be at 43.0, the third lowest of the studied areas. Population growth is expected to average 1.5 percent annually. Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 17,004.20 (Mill). Employment growth is expected to be 1.4 percent annually. The unemployment rate for the metro will average 9.3 percent, the second highest of the twelve forecasted MSAs. The Construction and Mining sector is expected to be the fastest growing sector in the area, averaging 5.7 percent average annual growth. This is followed by the Professional and Business Services sector averaging a growth rate of 3.5 percent a year. State and Local Government, Financial, and Federal Government sectors will experience a decline, with an annual growth rate of -0.2 percent, -0.8 percent, and -4.0 percent respectively.

Quick Facts:

• Population estimate of 609,492 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• A civilian labor force of 270,500 in April of 2012 (Florida Regional Economic Database).

• An unemployment rate of 9.1% not seasonally adjusted in April of 2012. This amounts to 24,616 unemployed people (Florida Regional Economic Database). Top Area Employers:

• Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 6,644

• Lakeland Regional Medical Center – 4,540 • City of Lakeland – 2,600 • GEICO – 2,005

• Watson Clinic – 1,600

Metro News Summaries

• Rooms To Go – 900

Winter Haven commissioner proposes expedited permits for smaller developments

• GC Services – 1,000

• Watkins Motor Lines – 848 • Summit Consulting – 654

• Saddle Creek Corporation – 625 Source: Lakeland Economic Development Council

• In an effort to increase economic development incentives, Winter Haven officials proposed shortening the process of receiving city permits for future small developments. • The plan cuts the review and approval process from 15 days to 10, according to Community and Economic Development Director David Dickey. The city hopes to include state permitting industries in the expedited process. • The process will only be extended to the industries identified in a report by Angelou Economics as “Winter Haven’s sweet spot.”

62

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

La k e l a n d

These are medical services, software, and information technologies, logistics and distribution, tourism, agribusiness, and business and professional services.

• None of the city’s seven commissioners have voiced support for selling the utility, but all support a move to let voters make a decision on a charter change.

Source: The Lakeland Ledger, April 23, 2012

Source: The Lakeland Ledger, June 23, 2012

Publix slips in Fortune 500 ranking

USF preparing phase-out of Lakeland operation

• World Fuel Services Corp. beat out Publix Super Markets Inc. for the designation as top Fortune 500 Company in Florida.

• Lakeland-based Publix ranks 106 overall on the list with $27.2 billion in revenue. The firm is privately owned by thousands of employee shareholders.

Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, May 7, 2012 Sykes Enterprises CEO: 600 jobs coming to Lakeland

• Sykes Enterprises announced plans to add a new customer service call center that will add 600 new jobs to Lakeland.

• USF Lakeland campus is in the final stages of switching to the new 12th state University, Florida Polytechnic University.

• The change will affect 62 faculty members and 80 employees of the Lakeland campus. Most were offered one-year positions in similar role at the joint-use campus USF shares with Polk State College.

• USF Lakeland will turn its budget over to FPU and transfer property and equipment.

Source: The Lakeland Ledger, June 28, 2012

• The 92,000-square-foot facility will be located at the former FedEx National LTL facility, and will begin operations in the third quarter. • The firm chose Lakeland for the expansion because of its sizable untapped labor pool for customer service work.

Source: The Lakeland Ledger, May 30, 2012

Businessmen, officials to meet on potential sale of Lakeland Electric

• Steve Scruggs, executive director of the Lakeland Economic Development Council, and Steve Barnett, vice chairman of Publix Super Markets Inc., have scheduled a second-round of private meetings with city commissioners and the mayor. • Scruggs and Barnett want to reduce the 66% of voter approval required by the city’s charter to sell a public utility. This comes after large electric companies TECO and FLP have inquired about the potential sale of Lakeland Electric.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

63

Lak e l an d Lakeland MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manuf acturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Inf ormation Financial Activities Prof essional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

Florida & Lakeland Unemployment Rate (percent)

14.0% 12.0%

2

2.5

Lakeland Real Gross Metro Product 40000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

35000.0 25000.0 20000.0 15000.0 10000.0

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 FL Unemployment Rate Lakeland Unemployment Rate

5000.0

280.0

(Thousands)

260.0 240.0 220.0 200.0 180.0 160.0

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 Lakeland Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 Real Gross Metro Product

Lakeland Real Personal Income

Lakeland Payroll Employment

64

1.5

30000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

1

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0%

(percent change year ago)

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 Real Personal Income

La k e l a n d

Quarterly Outlook for Lakeland, FL

July 2012 Forecast

2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

20.6 2.9 8 12.5

20.9 3.9 8.1 12.7

21.1 4.7 8.2 12.9

21.3 4.7 8.3 13

21.5 4.5 8.4 13.1

21.8 4.2 8.5 13.3

22 4.1 8.6 13.4

22.4 4.8 8.7 13.7

22.6 5 8.8 13.8

22.9 5.2 8.9 14

23.2 5.4 9 14.2

23.5 5.3 9.1 14.4

23.9 5.6 9.2 14.6

24.2 5.7 9.3 14.9

24.5 5.9 9.5 15.1

Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago

17.8 1.4

18.1 2.9

18.3 3.7

18.4 4.1

18.5 3.7

18.6 3

18.8 2.7

19 3.2

19.1 3

19.2 3.1

19.4 3.3

19.6 3.3

19.8 3.7

20 3.9

20.2 4.1

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$)

33.4 29

33.8 29.2

34 29.4

34.2 29.5

34.4 29.6

34.6 29.6

34.8 29.7

35.3 29.9

35.5 30

35.8 30.1

36.1 30.2

36.6 30.4

36.9 30.6

37.3 30.7

37.7 30.9

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

41.3 3.3

41.5 2.5

41.8 2.4

42.1 2.4

42.3 2.4

42.5 2.3

42.8 2.2

43.1 2.4

43.3 2.5

43.6 2.6

43.9 2.7

44.2 2.7

44.5 2.8

44.8 2.8

45.1 2.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

193.8 -0.7

194.6 0

195.5 0.5

196.4 1.5

197.3 1.8

198.2 1.9

199.1 1.8

200.1 1.9

201 1.8

202 1.9

203.2 2.1

204.4 2.2

205.6 2.3

206.9 2.4

208.3 2.5

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

13.9 -1

14 -0.2

14 0.4

14.1 1.5

14.3 2.6

14.4 2.9

14.5 3.2

14.6 3.3

14.6 2.7

14.7 2.6

14.8 2.5

14.9 2.3

15 2.1

15 1.8

15.1 1.5

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

179.9 -0.6

180.6 0

181.5 0.5

182.3 1.5

183.1 1.8

183.8 1.8

184.6 1.7

185.5 1.8

186.3 1.8

187.3 1.9

188.4 2

189.5 2.1

190.7 2.3

191.9 2.5

193.2 2.6

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

10.2 -2.7

10.2 -3

10.2 -2.2

10.3 -0.3

10.4 1.6

10.6 3.4

10.8 5.6

11.1 7.6

11.3 9.1

11.6 10.4

12 11.7

12.4 12.3

12.8 13

13.2 13.4

13.6 12.9

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

45.4 -0.8

45.6 -0.4

45.9 0.9

46.1 1.8

46.3 2.1

46.6 2.2

46.8 2.1

47 2

47.2 1.8

47.4 1.6

47.6 1.7

47.9 1.8

48.1 2.1

48.5 2.3

48.8 2.6

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

9.1 24 12.3

9.1 24.1 12.4

9.2 24.2 12.5

9.2 24.2 12.6

9.3 24.2 12.7

9.3 24.2 12.8

9.4 24.2 12.9

9.5 24.1 13

9.5 24 13.1

9.6 24 13.2

9.6 24 13.3

9.8 24.1 13.5

9.8 24.1 13.6

9.9 24.2 13.7

10 24.4 13.9

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.7 0.4

1.7 2.3

1.7 0.2

1.7 2.1

1.8 3.8

1.8 4.3

1.8 3.3

1.8 3.3

1.8 2

1.8 1.3

1.8 1.4

1.8 1.9

1.8 2.4

1.8 2.9

1.9 3

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

14.2 -6.3

14.2 -4.5

14.3 -2

14.4 2.1

14.4 1.7

14.5 1.5

14.5 1.1

14.4 0.4

14.4 0.1

14.5 0

14.5 -0.1

14.4 -0.2

14.5 0.1

14.5 0.2

14.5 0.2

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

23.9 -0.9

24 -0.8

24.4 1.9

24.7 3.8

25 4.6

25.2 4.7

25.3 3.9

25.5 3.1

25.8 3.4

26.2 4.2

26.6 5

26.9 5.6

27.3 5.8

27.7 5.7

28.1 5.7

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

29.6 -0.3

29.8 1.1

29.9 2

29.9 1.4

30 1.4

30.1 1.1

30.2 0.9

30.4 1.5

30.5 1.5

30.6 1.5

30.7 1.7

30.8 1.2

30.9 1.2

31 1.3

31.1 1.3

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

18.4 6.4

18.5 7.6

18.6 0.7

18.7 2

18.7 1.6

18.7 1

18.8 0.9

18.8 0.7

18.7 0.1

18.7 -0.3

18.6 -0.7

18.6 -0.8

18.6 -0.8

18.6 -0.6

18.5 -0.5

7.7 0

7.7 1.1

7.7 1.7

7.7 1.5

7.7 1.1

7.8 1

7.8 0.9

7.8 0.7

7.8 0.7

7.8 0.6

7.8 0.1

7.8 -0.1

7.8 -0.2

7.8 -0.3

7.8 -0.1

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.1 -8.3

1.1 -10.1

1.1 -7

1.1 -3.3

1.1 -2.4

1 -2.8

1 -2.9

1 -2.9

1 -2.8

1 -2.6

1 -2.5

1 -2.2

1 -1.9

1 -1.7

1 -1.4

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

27.8 -1

27.7 -1

27.7 -0.7

27.7 -0.4

27.7 -0.5

27.6 -0.3

27.7 -0.1

27.7 0.1

27.7 0.2

27.7 0.2

27.8 0.3

27.8 0.5

27.9 0.6

27.9 0.7

28 0.7

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil)

16210.6 16321.1 16445.6 16541.9 16642.5 16736.1 16847.8 16970.4 17104.5 17259.3 17433.8

17597 17771.2

17952 18129.2

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

616.1 1.1

618.5 1.2

621.1 1.4

623.7 1.5

626.3 1.7

628.7 1.6

631.1 1.6

633.6 1.6

636.2 1.6

638.7 1.6

641.2 1.6

643.8 1.6

646.4 1.6

649 1.6

651.6 1.6

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

271.6 -1.1

272.1 -0.8

272.6 -0.8

272.8 0.4

273.7 0.8

274.4 0.9

275.5 1.1

276.2 1.2

276.9 1.2

277.9 1.3

278.3 1

278.7 0.9

279.2 0.8

279.9 0.7

280.3 0.7

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

9.5

9.5

9.5

9.5

9.5

9.5

9.5

9.5

9.4

9.3

9.1

9

8.8

8.7

8.5

1685 1671 14

1842 1819 23

1981 1931 50

2205 2104 101

2585 2435 150

2886 2659 227

3201 2854 347

3434 2999 435

3815 3329 485

4225 3679 545

4588 3985 602

4931 4273 658

5324 4586 739

5632 4832 800

5823 4968 855

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

65

Lak e l an d

Annual Outlook for Lakeland, FL

July 2012

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

13.3 6 6.2 7.1

14.8 10.6 6.7 8.1

16.3 10.6 7.4 8.9

17.7 8.2 7.9 9.7

18.7 5.6 8.1 10.6

19.4 4 8.1 11.3

18.5 -4.5 7.7 10.8

19.2 3.5 7.7 11.4

20 4.4 7.9 12.1

20.7 3.6 8.1 12.6

14.1 3.9

15.2 7.8

16.3 7.5

17.2 5.3

17.7 2.8

17.8 0.7

17 -4.7

17.3 1.7

17.6 1.9

18 2.1

25.9 27.4

27.8 28.6

29.7 29.7

31 30.2

31.8 30.2

32.6 29.9

30.9 28.3

31.7 28.6

32.8 28.8

33.6 29.1

33 4.2

33.5 1.7

34.9 4.2

36.6 4.8

37.3 2

37.8 1.3

38.1 0.8

39 2.5

40.2 3.1

41.4 2.9

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

66

187.7 1

198.6 5.8

211.1 6.3

215.6 2.1

215.7 0

212.3 -1.6

201.5 -5.1

196.8 -2.3

194.9 -1

194.3 -0.3

18.1 -1.9

18.2 0.7

18.3 0.4

17.9 -2.2

17.2 -3.6

16.4 -5.1

14.8 -9.3

14.2 -4.2

14.1 -1

13.9 -0.9

169.6 1.3

180.4 6.3

192.8 6.9

197.8 2.6

198.5 0.4

196 -1.2

186.7 -4.8

182.6 -2.2

180.8 -1

180.4 -0.2

13.3 -5

14.8 11.1

16.6 12.3

17.3 4

16.2 -6.3

14.3 -11.9

12.1 -15.3

11 -8.8

10.5 -4.5

10.2 -2.6

42.5 -4.2

44.3 4.3

48 8.3

49.3 2.8

49.4 0.1

48.2 -2.5

45.3 -5.9

44.9 -0.9

45.6 1.6

45.5 -0.1

9.1 22.5 10.9

9.4 23.5 11.4

10.3 25.3 12.5

10.4 26.1 12.9

10.1 26.4 12.9

9.6 26.1 12.5

9.1 24.2 12

8.7 24.2 12

9 24.3 12.2

9.1 24.1 12.3

2.2 -7.9

2.2 -1.1

2.3 3

2.4 3

2.2 -7.8

2.1 -3.4

1.9 -9.2

1.8 -7

1.7 -4.3

1.7 0.7

14.7 1.5

14.6 -0.7

14.8 1.3

15.3 3.1

15.5 1.8

15.9 2.2

15.5 -2.6

15.3 -1.3

15 -1.8

14.2 -5.1

23.8 25.3

29 22.2

31.6 8.7

31.3 -0.9

30.4 -2.8

29.7 -2.5

27.4 -7.6

25.7 -6.3

24 -6.5

24 0

23.2 1.6

24.4 5.2

25.9 6

26.9 4.1

28.3 5.1

29.4 4

29 -1.4

29.1 0.4

29.5 1.3

29.7 0.7

15.8 -5.2

16.1 2.1

17.3 7.4

17.8 2.6

18.2 2.7

18.2 -0.4

17.4 -4.5

16.8 -3.3

17.6 4.9

18.5 4.9

7.5 0.9

8 7.6

9 11.9

9.5 5.5

9 -5.3

8.6 -4

8.3 -4

8 -2.8

7.6 -5.2

7.7 0.4

1.4 -3

1.3 -2.4

1.4 4.4

1.4 -0.6

1.4 1.2

1.4 0

1.4 -1.3

1.6 15.8

1.2 -25.7

1.1 -8.5

25.3 1.6

25.5 1

26 2

26.7 2.6

27.9 4.3

28.3 1.7

28.5 0.6

28.4 -0.3

28.1 -1.2

27.8 -1.2

13710.3

14734.2

15967.8

16657.7

16790.7

16484.4

16158.3

16241.8

16174.9

16270.5

515.1 2.4

530.4 3

550.1 3.7

570.3 3.7

586.5 2.8

595 1.4

599.3 0.7

604.1 0.8

610.3 1

617.5 1.2

239.7 0.7

247.4 3.2

256.1 3.5

261.2 2

269.1 3.1

273.5 1.6

272.6 -0.3

276.1 1.3

274.6 -0.6

272 -0.9

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

5.5

4.9

4

3.6

4.4

6.7

11.1

12.2

11.6

9.6

6877 6325 552

9504 8463 1041

12785 11790 995

9464 8309 1154

4377 4030 347

3222 2365 857

1203 1191 12

1222 1166 57

1164 1096 68

1760 1732 28

La k e l a n d

Annual Outlook for Lakeland, FL

July 2012

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

21.6 4.4 8.4 13.2

22.7 5.1 8.8 13.9

24 5.6 9.3 14.8

25.5 6.1 9.8 15.7

26.9 5.6 10.2 16.7

28.3 5.3 10.7 17.7

29.8 5 11.1 18.7

31.1 4.6 11.5 19.7

32.6 4.5 11.9 20.6

34.1 4.8 12.4 21.7

18.6 3.4

19.1 3.1

19.9 3.8

20.8 4.4

21.6 4.1

22.4 3.7

23.2 3.5

23.9 3.2

24.6 2.9

25.4 3.1

34.5 29.6

35.7 30

37.1 30.7

38.7 31.5

40.2 32.3

41.7 32.9

43.1 33.6

44.4 34.1

45.7 34.6

47.2 35.1

42.4 2.4

43.5 2.6

44.7 2.8

45.9 2.8

47.3 2.9

48.7 3

50.2 3.1

51.7 3

53.2 3.1

54.9 3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

197.8 1.8

201.6 1.9

206.3 2.3

211.1 2.3

215 1.8

217.7 1.3

219.6 0.8

221.3 0.8

222.8 0.7

224.9 0.9

14.3 2.5

14.7 2.8

15 1.9

15.1 0.6

15 -0.2

15 -0.3

14.9 -0.5

14.9 -0.3

14.8 -0.4

14.8 -0.4

183.5 1.7

186.9 1.9

191.3 2.4

196 2.5

200 2

202.7 1.4

204.6 0.9

206.4 0.9

208 0.8

210.2 1

10.5 2.6

11.5 9.7

13 12.9

14.3 10.3

15.2 5.7

15.6 2.7

15.7 0.6

15.7 0.1

15.7 0.3

15.8 0.3

46.5 2

47.3 1.8

48.3 2.2

49.6 2.7

50.7 2.2

51.3 1.2

51.5 0.5

51.7 0.2

51.8 0.2

51.9 0.4

9.3 24.2 12.7

9.5 24 13.2

9.9 24.2 13.7

10.3 24.5 14.3

10.6 24.7 14.8

10.9 24.7 15.2

11 24.8 15.3

11.2 24.7 15.4

11.3 24.6 15.5

11.4 24.5 15.7

1.8 3.4

1.8 2

1.8 2.6

1.9 2.4

1.9 2.5

2 2

2 1.6

2 1.3

2.1 1.7

2.1 2

14.4 1.6

14.5 0.1

14.5 0.1

14.5 0.1

14.6 0.9

14.7 0.8

14.8 0.7

14.9 0.5

14.9 0.2

15 0.7

25.1 4.3

26 3.9

27.5 5.7

28.8 4.5

29.9 4

30.9 3.2

31.7 2.8

32.7 3

34 4.1

35.5 4.4

30.1 1.2

30.5 1.6

30.9 1.3

31.6 2.1

32.1 1.8

32.6 1.5

33.1 1.4

33.5 1.3

33.7 0.6

33.9 0.5

18.7 1.4

18.7 -0.1

18.6 -0.7

18.5 -0.6

18.3 -0.9

18.1 -0.9

18 -0.8

17.8 -1.2

17.6 -1

17.4 -1

7.7 1.1

7.8 0.5

7.8 -0.2

7.8 0.2

7.8 0.2

7.8 -0.2

7.8 -0.3

7.7 -0.3

7.7 -0.4

7.7 -0.4

1.1 -2.9

1 -2.7

1 -1.8

1 -1

1 -0.7

1 -0.6

1 -0.2

1.1 14.1

1 -10.5

1 0.5

27.7 -0.3

27.7 0.2

27.9 0.6

28.1 0.8

28.4 1

28.7 1.2

29 1.1

29.3 0.7

29.5 0.8

29.8 1.1

16692

17192

17862.3

18528.8

19144

19701.6

20233

20751.4

21208.5

21730.5

627.4 1.6

637.4 1.6

647.7 1.6

658.4 1.7

669.3 1.7

679.9 1.6

690.4 1.5

701 1.5

712.1 1.6

723.4 1.6

274.1 0.8

277.3 1.2

279.5 0.8

281.5 0.7

284.2 1

287.4 1.1

290.9 1.2

294.4 1.2

297.4 1

300.3 1

9.5

9.3

8.7

8.1

7.6

7.3

7

6.9

6.8

6.8

2719 2513 206

4015 3498 517

5428 4665 763

6200 5153 1047

6545 5291 1254

6487 5226 1262

6409 5164 1245

6267 5094 1173

5958 4927 1031

5748 4773 974

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

67

Lak e l an d

Annual Outlook for Lakeland, FL

July 2012

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

35.8 5 12.9 22.9

37.6 4.9 13.4 24.2

39.4 4.8 13.9 25.5

41.3 4.8 14.5 26.8

43.3 4.9 15.2 28.2

45.4 4.7 15.8 29.6

47.5 4.7 16.5 30.9

49.7 4.6 17.3 32.4

52 4.7 18.1 33.9

54.5 4.8 18.9 35.5

26.2 3.1

27 3

27.7 2.9

28.5 2.9

29.4 3

30.2 2.7

31 2.7

31.8 2.6

32.6 2.7

33.5 2.8

48.7 35.6

50.4 36.1

52 36.6

53.7 37.1

55.6 37.7

57.4 38.2

59.2 38.7

61.1 39.1

63.1 39.6

65.3 40.2

56.6 3.2

58.4 3.1

60.2 3.2

62.2 3.3

64.2 3.3

66.3 3.3

68.6 3.3

70.8 3.3

73.3 3.5

75.7 3.4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

68

226.7 0.8

228.1 0.6

230 0.8

232.3 1

234.8 1.1

237.4 1.1

240.2 1.2

242.7 1.1

245.7 1.2

249 1.3

14.6 -0.9

14.5 -1.1

14.3 -1.4

14 -1.5

13.9 -1.4

13.7 -1.4

13.5 -1.3

13.3 -1.2

13.2 -1.1

13 -1.1

212.1 0.9

213.6 0.7

215.7 1

218.3 1.2

221 1.2

223.7 1.2

226.7 1.3

229.4 1.2

232.5 1.4

235.9 1.5

15.9 0.8

16.1 1.1

16.4 1.7

16.7 2.1

17 1.7

17.2 1.1

17.3 0.9

17.5 1

17.8 1.8

18.1 1.8

52.3 0.6

52.6 0.7

53 0.8

53.5 0.8

54 0.9

54.4 0.9

54.9 0.9

55.2 0.5

55.5 0.6

55.8 0.5

11.5 24.4 16

11.6 24.4 16.3

11.7 24.4 16.6

11.8 24.4 16.8

11.9 24.6 17.1

11.9 24.8 17.3

12 24.9 17.6

12.1 25 17.7

12.1 25.1 17.9

12.2 25.2 18

2.1 0.9

2.1 0.2

2.1 0.5

2.2 1

2.2 1.5

2.2 1.8

2.3 2

2.3 1.6

2.4 1.7

2.4 1.7

15.1 0.6

15.2 0.6

15.4 0.8

15.5 0.8

15.6 1

15.8 1.3

16 1.3

16.2 1.2

16.5 1.3

16.7 1.2

36.6 2.9

37.1 1.5

38 2.4

39.1 2.9

40.1 2.5

41.1 2.6

42.3 3

43.5 2.8

45.1 3.6

46.9 4.1

34 0.5

34.1 0.3

34.3 0.5

34.5 0.8

34.9 1

35.3 1.2

35.8 1.3

36.2 1.1

36.6 1.1

36.9 1.1

17.2 -0.9

17.2 -0.5

17.1 -0.4

17.1 0

17.2 0.5

17.3 0.7

17.4 0.8

17.5 0.5

17.7 0.7

17.8 0.7

7.7 0.1

7.7 0.3

7.7 0.4

7.8 0.4

7.8 0.3

7.8 0.5

7.9 0.6

7.9 0.5

7.9 0.2

7.9 0

1 3

1.1 4.4

1.1 4.3

1.2 4.2

1.2 4.1

1.3 4

1.3 3.9

1.5 10.9

1.4 -2.3

1.5 3.9

30.1 1

30.3 0.8

30.6 0.8

30.8 0.6

31 0.7

31.2 0.6

31.4 0.6

31.5 0.5

31.7 0.5

31.9 0.5

22352

22989.2

23649.6

24321.1

24986.3

25653.8

26352

27074.5

27860.9

28647.9

734.8 1.6

746.1 1.5

757.3 1.5

768.5 1.5

779.6 1.5

790.7 1.4

801.7 1.4

812.6 1.4

823.4 1.3

834.2 1.3

303.7 1.1

307.2 1.2

310.5 1.1

314 1.1

317.7 1.2

321.5 1.2

325.4 1.2

329.2 1.2

333.2 1.2

337 1.2

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

6.7

6.6

6.5

6.5

6.4

6.3

6.2

6.2

6.1

6

5738 4821 917

6014 5083 932

6107 5154 954

6112 5150 962

5991 4999 992

5829 4818 1012

5711 4699 1012

5672 4681 991

5570 4595 974

5382 4404 978

La k e l a n d

Annual Outlook for Lakeland, FL

July 2012

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

57 4.6 19.7 37.2

59.5 4.5 20.5 39

62.2 4.5 21.2 40.9

65 4.5 22 42.9

67.8 4.3 22.8 45

70.8 4.4 23.7 47.1

73.9 4.4 24.5 49.4

77 4.2 25.4 51.6

80.3 4.3 26.3 54

83.8 4.3 27.3 56.5

34.4 2.5

35.2 2.4

36.1 2.4

36.9 2.5

37.8 2.3

38.7 2.4

39.6 2.3

40.4 2.2

41.3 2.2

42.3 2.3

67.4 40.7

69.5 41.1

71.7 41.6

74.1 42.1

76.4 42.6

78.8 43.1

81.3 43.6

83.8 44

86.4 44.5

89.2 45

78.2 3.2

80.6 3.2

83.1 3.1

85.7 3.1

88.3 3

90.9 3

93.6 2.9

96.3 2.9

99.1 2.9

101.9 2.9

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

251.2 0.9

252.8 0.6

254.3 0.6

256 0.6

257.5 0.6

259.1 0.6

260.8 0.6

262.5 0.7

264.3 0.7

266.4 0.8

12.9 -1.2

12.7 -1.1

12.6 -1.1

12.5 -1

12.3 -1

12.2 -0.9

12.2 -0.6

12.1 -0.7

12 -0.6

11.9 -0.7

238.4 1

240.1 0.7

241.7 0.7

243.5 0.7

245.2 0.7

246.9 0.7

248.6 0.7

250.4 0.7

252.3 0.8

254.5 0.9

18.4 1.5

18.5 0.8

18.7 0.8

18.9 1

19.1 1

19.2 0.9

19.4 0.8

19.4 0.1

19.5 0.3

19.6 0.6

56 0.4

56 0.1

56.1 0.1

56.1 0.1

56.2 0.1

56.2 0.1

56.3 0.1

56.4 0.1

56.5 0.3

56.7 0.4

12.2 25.3 18.1

12.2 25.4 18.1

12.2 25.4 18.1

12.2 25.5 18

12.2 25.6 18

12.1 25.7 17.9

12.1 25.8 17.8

12.2 25.9 17.8

12.2 26 17.7

12.4 26.1 17.7

2.4 1.7

2.5 1.7

2.5 1.9

2.6 2

2.6 1.9

2.7 1.9

2.7 2

2.8 1.9

2.8 1.9

2.9 2

16.8 1.1

17 0.9

17.1 1

17.3 1

17.5 0.8

17.6 0.8

17.7 0.7

17.8 0.3

17.8 -0.1

17.7 -0.1

48.1 2.5

49 1.8

49.8 1.7

50.7 1.7

51.5 1.7

52.3 1.6

53.2 1.6

54.2 1.9

55.4 2.3

56.8 2.4

37.2 0.7

37.4 0.5

37.5 0.4

37.7 0.5

37.9 0.5

38.1 0.6

38.3 0.5

38.5 0.6

38.8 0.6

39 0.7

17.9 0.6

18 0.3

18 0.5

18.1 0.4

18.2 0.4

18.3 0.4

18.3 0.5

18.4 0.3

18.5 0.4

18.5 0.3

7.9 0.1

7.9 0

7.9 0

7.9 0

7.9 -0.1

7.9 -0.2

7.9 -0.1

7.9 -0.3

7.9 -0.3

7.8 -0.5

1.5 3.7

1.6 3.7

1.7 3.8

1.7 3.7

1.8 3.6

1.8 3.5

1.9 3.3

2.1 8.2

2 -1.9

2.1 3.7

32 0.4

32.2 0.4

32.3 0.4

32.4 0.4

32.6 0.4

32.7 0.4

32.8 0.4

33 0.4

33.1 0.4

33.3 0.4

29389.5

30130.1

30903.8

31714.9

32550.3

33400.2

34292.4

35228.6

36258.3

37329.6

845.1 1.3

855.8 1.3

866.6 1.3

877.2 1.2

887.7 1.2

898.1 1.2

908.5 1.2

918.8 1.1

929 1.1

938.9 1.1

340.9 1.1

344.7 1.1

348.5 1.1

352.3 1.1

356 1

359.6 1

363.4 1

366.9 1

370.4 0.9

373.8 0.9

6

5.9

5.9

5.8

5.8

5.8

5.8

5.8

5.8

5.8

5308 4336 972

5325 4354 972

5357 4379 978

5358 4372 987

5262 4273 989

5165 4165 1000

5085 4067 1018

4998 3962 1036

4955 3906 1049

4897 3831 1065

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

69

M iam i – Fo r t Lau d e r dale – P o m pan o B e ach

Profiles

Outlook Summaries

The Miami–Fort Lauderdale–Pompano Beach MSA is comprised of Miami-Dade County, Broward County, and Palm Beach County. Located on the southeast coast of Florida, this area is home to many sports teams, such as the Miami Dolphins, the Miami Heat, the Florida Marlins and the Florida Panthers. Other major businesses also reside in this Metro, including the Miami Seaquarium, the University of Miami, and Florida International University.

The Miami–Fort Lauderdale–Pompano Beach Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) area is expected to show strong growth in the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow 4.6 percent annually, and the per capita income level, at 39, is the second highest in the areas studied. Average annual wage growth will be at 2.8 percent. The average annual wage level is expected to be 53.9, the highest of the studied MSAs. Miami is expected to average a population growth of 1.4 percent each year. The area has the highest Gross Metro Product at a level of 254,960.33 (Mill). Employment is expected to grow at an average rate of 1.8 percent each year, while unemployment is expected to be 8.2 percent. Miami’s fastest growing sector is expected to be the Construction and Mining sector at 6.4 percent annually, followed by the Professional and Business Services sector at 4.0 percent each year and Education and Health Services sector at 1.9 percent. State and Local Government and the Federal Government sectors are expected to decline with annual growth rate of -0.3 percent and -2.3 percent.

QUICK FACTS: • Metro area population estimate of 5,670,125 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Miami-Dade County population estimate of 2,554,766 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Broward County population estimate of 1,780,172 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Palm Beach County population estimate of 1,335,187 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). • A civilian labor force of 2,881,418 as of April 2012 for the entire Metro area (Florida Research and Economic Database). • An unemployment rate of 8.3% as of April 2012, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 237,916 unemployed people for the entire Metro area (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: • • • • • • • • • • •

Miami-Dade County Public School – 48,571 Miami-Dade County – 29,000 Federal Government – 19,500 Florida State Government – 17,100 University of Miami – 16,000 Baptist Health South Florida – 13,376 Jackson Health System – 12,571 Publix Super Markets – 10,800 American Airlines – 9,000 Florida International University – 8,000 Miami-Dade College – 6,200

Source: The Beacon Council 70

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

Metro News Summaries Used cooking oil turns to biodiesel in South Florida

• The largest biodiesel plant for the tri-county area is being built now and costs approximately $4 million. • Suppliers of cooking oil, such as restaurants at the Miami International airport will give the biodiesel plant the used cooking oil in order to convert it to biodiesel.

• Green