The Effects of Climate Change on Developing Economies

Climate Change and Developing Countries

Tyler Bauer

Y376 International Political Economy Dr. Lutz 1 May 2018

Throughout the world, many countries – and their citizens – are becoming increasingly aware of the issue of climate change. While the focus is often put on how to stop climate change, many overlook what the irreversible effects of climate change to this point may be. Even if the effects are discussed, the focus is often placed on the advanced industrialized countries.

However, there is a much larger problem – larger in terms of the number of countries and people affected – that often goes unnoticed and unconsidered. Therefore, it is worth asking how climate change affects developing countries and their ability to develop.

To understand the effects of climate change on the developing world, a couple definitions must first be established. The first term that needs defined is climate change. Specifically, climate change must be differentiated from global warming. According to NASA, climate change “encompasses global warming, but refers to the broader range of changes that are happening to our planet. These include rising sea levels, shrinking mountain glaciers, accelerating ice melt, and shifts in flower and plant blooming times. These are all consequences … caused mainly by people burning fossil fuels and putting out heat-trapping gases into the air.”1 While global warming is an important aspect of climate change, this paper will analyze climate change as a whole because it provides a more well-rounded view of what the future may hold.

The second term which must be defined is developing countries. Put simply, countries can be separated into a few groups: advanced industrialized countries, newly industrialized countries, and developing countries. Developing countries are the poorest of the aforementioned countries, and can be further separated into Third World and Fourth World countries.2 Developing countries can be found in Sub-Saharan Africa, East Asia, South Asia, the Pacific, and 1 "Global Climate Change," NASA, June 03, 2014, https://climate.nasa.gov/.

2 Robert Hunter Wade, Global Political Economy, Edited by John Ravenhill, 4th ed. (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2014) 322-3.

1

Latin America. These countries rely mainly on agriculture for exports, making land a valuable resource.3 Among the least-developed countries in the world – those which would belong to the Fourth World – are the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Haiti, and Myanmar, to name a few.4 As previously stated, developing countries are highly dependent on agriculture, both for subsistence and exports.5 The primary effect of climate change on agriculture as it pertains to crops is changing growth zones. Growth zones are zones of the world in which a certain species can grow and thrive. As the climate changes around the world, some species will be unable to continue living in the former growth areas – these species will either adapt or die, meaning many species may be unable to be grown in areas that were once reliant upon their growth. Farmers will have to either move to the new growth zone to continue farming or give up farming the given crop altogether.6 This could be harmful to developing economies, as even though their dependence on agriculture has waned over the years, the effect would be felt nonetheless.7 Agricultural sectors of developing economies will be subject to a variety of issues due to climate change. Many of these issues will vary depending on the specific region in which the developing countries can be found. However, there is a general set of issues that all agricultural sectors in developing countries can expect to face, regardless of their location. The first of these issues is an increase of organisms due to elevated carbon dioxide levels. Second, maturity in crops will be accelerated due to the increase in temperature. Additionally, this increase in temperature will cause heat stress during crops’ flowering and reproduction stages, which will negatively affect their yield. Climate change will also result in an increased number of negative 3 Thomas Oatley, International Political Economy, 5th ed. (New York: Routledge, 2012) 113.

4 "Who Are the Developing Countries in the WTO?" World Trade Organization, https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/devel_e/d1who_e.htm.

5 Oatley, International Political Economy, 113.

6 David Ford, "How Does Global Warming Affect The Economy?" Forbes, July 13, 2017, https://www.forbes.com/sites/quora/2017/07/13/how-does-global-warming-affect-the-economy/#c56437634a10.

7 Oatley, International Political Economy, 113.

2

weather events, such as droughts or floods, each of which harm crops. Lastly, climate change is expected to increase pests, which will have the effect of further decreasing crop yields or, at the very least, increasing the amount of money that has to be spent on pesticides, thus raising the cost of production. In addition to this, the excessive use of pesticides could make crops unhealthy for consumption.8 Developing countries are also vulnerable to climate change and its effects for purely geographical reasons. For example, subtropical regions – which, coincidentally, are home to a number of developing countries – are especially susceptible to changes in climate because local agricultural practices are accustomed to the existing crop calendar. The crop calendar consists of planting, growing, harvesting, and so on. Shifts in the crop calendar can not only affect farmers, but domestic and global markets as well. As a result, consumers will have to go without certain goods or find substitutes, each of which would come at the expense of the developing country or countries that previously exported this good.9 Developing countries are also particularly susceptible to climate change as it relates to agriculture due to their economic standing. Developed nations are the key contributors to greenhouse gas emissions, being responsible for seventy-five percent of all emissions.10 These emissions are a result of their status as developed countries with established industries, putting them at an economic advantage when compared to developing nations. Since they are already developed, developed countries are much more willing to call for greenhouse gas emissions.

Developing countries, on the other hand, are in the process of developing, which results in the 8 Cynthia Rosenzweig and Daniel Hillel, "Agriculture and Climate Change: Effects and Responses," Pi Kappa Phi Forum 87, no. 1 (Winter 2007): 21.

9 Rosenzweig and Hillel, "Agriculture and Climate Change,” 20.

10 Muhammad Abdul Rahman, Abdul Saboor, Irfan Ahmad Baig, Usman Shakoor, and Humaira Kanwal, "An Investigation of the Impact of Climate Change on Rice Crop in Pakistan: A Multivariate Analysis," Pakistan Journal of Agricultural Sciences 54, no. 03 (2017): 561.

3

emission of greenhouse gasses. Since development brings with it technological advances, developing countries are less able to adapt to changes in ways of doing business.

To make matters worse for developing countries, they contain a large portion of the world’s population, furthering the economic strain these countries experience. By the year 2040, the world’s population is expected to reach nine billion. Of this nine billion, developing countries are expected to contain eighty-five percent of the world’s population, a figure exceeding sevenand-a-half billion people.11 For developing countries that have difficulty feeding their current population, this figure is likely frightening. According to Wesseh and Lin, “agricultural commodities will not only have to be increased substantially above present levels, but environmental pollution driven in part by human utilization of energy will need to be minimized as well” in order to feed such a large number of people.12 Additionally, Rosenzweig and Hillel stated a handful of reasons why developing countries are more vulnerable to climate change than developed countries when it comes to agriculture. Interestingly, some countries are actually expected to benefit from climate change in the agriculture sector. However, much of the developing world – including Africa, the Middle East, and Latin and South America – are expected to suffer considerably. According to Rosenzweig and Hillel, the aforementioned difference in suffering is due to “the predominance of agriculture in their countries, the scarcity of capital for developing and disseminating measures to adapt to the change, the often-warmer baseline climate, the already stressed marginal-production environments, and the heightened exposure to extreme weather events.”13

11 Presley K. Wesseh, Jr., and Boqiang Lin, "Climate Change and Agriculture Under CO2 Fertilization Effects and Farm Level Adaptation: Where Do the Models Meet?" Applied Energy 195 (2017): 556.

12 Wesseh, Jr. and Lin, “Climate Change and Agriculture Under CO2 Fertilization Effects and Farm Level Adaptation,” 556.

13 Rosenzweig and Hillel, “Agriculture and Climate Change,” 20.

4

As a result of developing countries’ increased vulnerability and relative inability to adapt, Rosenzweig and Hillel discuss two adaptation approaches to climate change. The first approach outlined by the authors is an autonomous approach. In the autonomous approach, farmers and communities are expected to independently make the changes necessary to continue farming and mitigate climate change. These changes must be made using currently available technological and management options. The second adaptation approach, the planned approach, would consist of reactions requiring effort from local, regional, and national governments.14 Either of these would be beneficial, but given the limited resources most developing countries have on hand, the autonomous approach is likely the most pragmatic option.

While all developing countries are vulnerable to the effects of climate change on agriculture, developing countries with considerable coastlines, including island countries, are at an increased risk. This is because climate change has increased the frequency of extreme meteorological events. Among these events are catastrophes like hurricanes – also called cyclones or typhoons, depending on the region being analyzed – that have become more frequent and more intense in recent years. According to a group of scholars in Southeast Asia, “global warming-induced extreme climate change has increased the frequency of severe typhoons that bring heavy rains and strong winds, thus considerably affecting the stability of forest ecosystems.”15 Although the research in this piece dealt with Taiwan, which is not a developing country, it is applicable to a number of developing countries due to similarities in geography and susceptibility to meteorological events like cyclones.

14 Rosenzweig and Hillel, “Agriculture and Climate Change,” 20.

15 Yu-Ting Chiu, Anthony Bain, Shu-Lin Deng, Yi-Chiao Ho, Wen-Hsuan Chen, and Hsy-Yu Tzeng, "Effects of Climate Change on a Mutualistic Coastal Species: Recovery from Typhoon Damages and Risks of Population Erosion," PLoS ONE 12, no. 10 (October 26, 2017): 1-2.

5

In countries such as Taiwan are vulnerable to climate change for a number of reasons.

First, like all other developing countries, agricultural sectors in tropical and sub-tropical climates will be affected by the increase in global average surface temperature. The constant increase in global average surface temperature affects plants’ growth by causing plants to flower earlier and by creating a gap in flowering events in the middle of the year.16 Additionally, plants and crops in sub-tropical and tropical climates are particularly well-adapted to their current climates.

However, the increase in meteorological events like cyclones has tested their resiliency by inflicting significant damage onto these plants and crops. As cyclones become more frequent and severe, plants are left with less time to recover and more damage incurred than previously. In addition to damage to plants, meteorological events like cyclones also inflict a great deal of damage to insects that aid in pollenating said plants. These insects and plants have a symbiotic relationship, meaning each is vital to the others’ wellbeing. If substantial damage were to be inflicted on either plants or pollenating insects, both find themselves at risk of extinction or, at the very least, a decreased population.17 While the aforementioned study is focused on a species of fig that grows in Taiwan, it is applicable to a number of developing countries – particularly those in Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin and South America – and their respective crops, as similar meteorological events would have similar effects on all plant species and pollenating insects in sub-tropical and tropical countries.

Developing countries in arid climates are also particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change on agriculture. For the purpose of analyzing the effects of climate change on agriculture in arid developing countries, Pakistan will be evaluated. Pakistan provides an interesting case in that it – and forty percent of its citizens – depends on crops for subsistence 16 Chiu et al., “Effects of Climate Change on a Mutualistic Coastal Species,” 2.

17 Chiu et al., “Effects of Climate Change on a Mutualistic Coastal Species,” 14.

6

farming and a source of income. Additionally, Asia is expected to have a greater increase in temperature than the global average.18 Given the expected increases in global population, Pakistan’s population could be drastically affected should crop yields be diminished in any way.

Overall, Pakistan has two main crops – rice and wheat. According to Rahman et al, an increase of “2⁰C in temperature could affect the rice yield positively by increasing 0.75 tons per hectare.” Rice already accounts for nearly two percent of Pakistan’s GDP and is a key export good, so an increase would be beneficial in furthering Pakistan’s economic development.19 Increased yields would also have the secondary benefit of feeding Pakistanis in other sectors of the economy, making diversification of the economy more feasible.

While an increased yield would benefit Pakistan, it may not be possible in the future.

Roughly thirty-eight percent of Pakistani land is cultivable, but only twenty-six percent of Pakistani land is actually used for cultivation. The remaining twelve percent of land is unused due to three main issues: a shortage of water, salinity, and aridity. The water used by Pakistani farmers is ninety percent freshwater from local rivers and canals, meaning that these farmers are dependent on an accessible and plentiful water supply.20 While all crops require water, rice needs considerably more water to grow properly.21 Therefore, the issue of water availability is of particular importance to Pakistani farmers. With other crops being harmed by climate change, many farmers may switch to growing rice, as it will become even more important to mitigate the loss of wheat. However, this would further decrease the available water supply, and seeing as

18 Rahman et al., “An Investigation on the Impact of Climate Change on Rice Crop in Pakistan,” 561-2.

19 Rahman et al., “An Investigation on the Impact of Climate Change on Rice Crop in Pakistan,” 562.

20 Rahman et al., “An Investigation on the Impact of Climate Change on Rice Crop in Pakistan,” 562.

21 Rahman et al., “An Investigation on the Impact of Climate Change on Rice Crop in Pakistan,” 565.

7

climate change is expected to lead to less precipitation in Pakistan, this problem would only be exacerbated.22 Wheat yields, on the other hand, would suffer significantly from a similar change in temperature. Rahman et al found that an increase of 2⁰C would reduce wheat yields by 1.8 tons per hectare.23 As alluded to in the previous paragraph, these findings may lead Pakistani farmers to change the crops which they choose to farm. This has not yet occurred, though, and this is partially due to the availability of chemical fertilizers that have helped mitigate the negative effects of climate change on agriculture. While this has not reduced the earlier harvest time of crops in any way, chemical fertilizers have been successful in increasing crop yields – including those of wheat – since 1992.24 While this is certainly promising, it remains unclear whether this success will continue in the future.

Climate change also has a profound impact on the quality of soil in sub-tropical and tropical regions and countries, including Cuba. In the case of Cuba, aspects of climate change – particularly greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and methane, among others – have damaged otherwise valuable farmland. Consequences of climate change in Cuba include changes in organic matter content, pH balances, density thresholds, salinization, and more. The aforementioned consequences of climate change have made much of the soil in Cuba’s most populous region, which also contains the highest amount of agricultural production in Cuba, less conducive to farming.25 22 Muhammad Jamal Nasir, Anwar Saeed Khan, and Said Alam, "Climate Change and Agriculture: An Overview of Farmers' Perceptions and Adaptations in Balambat Tehsil, District Dir Lower, Pakistan," Sarhad Journal of Agriculture 34, no. 1 (March 31, 2018): 85.

23 Rahman et al., “An Investigation on the Impact of Climate Change on Rice Crop in Pakistan,” 562.”

24 Nasir, Khan, and Alam, “Climate Change and Agriculture: An Overview of Farmers’ Perceptions and Adaptations,” 88.

25 J. M. Febles Gonzales, J. Somoza Cabrera, Marina B. Vega, N. Amaral Sobrinho, A. Calderin Garcia, and J. M. Febles Diaz, "Effects of Climate Change on Soils of Cattle Regions from the Southern Karst Plain Habana - Matanzas, Cuba," Cuban Journal of Agricultural Science51, no. 1 (2017): 139-145.

8

Rwanda is another developing country that has been affected by climate change. In the past, Gishwati, an area in western Rwanda, was a prime location for agriculture. Due to soil erosion and landslides caused by deforestation and climate change, Gishwati is simply too dangerous of a place to live or farm.26 The issue of climate change in Rwanda came to a head in 2007 when a large flood in the Gishwati area killed humans and livestock while destroying existing infrastructure. This event brought the issue of climate change into the public consciousness, and caused many Rwandans to come to terms with just how vulnerable their country was to the effects of climate change.27 A similar event happened less than two years later, causing more damage to Rwanda’s citizens and agriculture.28 Each of the aforementioned tragedies caused the Rwandan government and its citizens to consider possible methods to adapt to the changing world around them. Eventually, resettlement became the best option to mitigate the negative effects of climate change while protecting the population. There were three main waves of resettlement in Rwanda, which occurred in 2007, 2009, and 2011. Each of these three waves resulted in Rwandans moving to Kanembwe, a Rwandan city near the border with the Democratic Republic of the Congo. While these farmers have benefitted from the resettlement in that they are safer and able to continue farming in a new location, this resettlement was not without its consequences. First, some farmers who resettled were given significantly less land in the new location, in some cases being given a farm onetwentieth the size of their old farms. Second, those who owned land in Gishwati had owned their land for nearly one hundred years. Although it was no longer safe to live in Gishwati, many farmers hesitated or even refused to leave due to their sentimental attachments to the area.29 26 Claudia Gebauer and Martin Doevenspeck, "Adaptation to Climate Change and Resettlement in Rwanda," Area 47, no. 1 (March 2015): 97.

27 Gebauer and Doevenspeck, “Adaptation to Climate Change and Resettlement in Rwanda,” 100.

28 Gebauer and Doevenspeck, “Adaptation to Climate Change and Resettlement in Rwanda,” 101.

29 Gebauer and Doevenspeck, “Adaptation to Climate Change and Resettlement in Rwanda,” 97-101.

9

While this case is certainly not without negative consequences, many point to resettlement in Rwanda as a practical approach which developing countries can follow to adapt their agricultural sectors to a world affected by climate change.30 Although much of the focus regarding climate change’s effect on agriculture is centered on crops, livestock will affected as well. For example, farmers and livestock will both have to adapt to survive in the changing climate. Of course, these livestock will be at an advantage compared to wild animals in that they will be helped by farmers.31 However, it is possible that not all livestock will be able to adapt to climate change, which could lead to longstanding farming practices being done away with in some areas.

Although agriculture is often thought of as a relatively clean sector of the economy, it actually contributes a considerable amount of greenhouse gas emissions. According to global warming potentials, agriculture contributes ten to twelve percent of current greenhouse gas emissions.32 However, Reisinger and Clark’s research refutes this estimate, finding that it is indeed much worse because global warming potentials do not measure actual warming caused by emissions and because methane and carbon dioxide accumulate differently in the atmosphere.

According to Reisinger and Clark, “direct livestock non-CO₂ emissions caused about 19% of the total modelled warming of 0.81⁰C from all anthropogenic sources in 2010.” Additionally, Reisinger and Clark found that the temperature increase directly attributable to livestock contributed to twenty-three percent of the total warming in 2010.33

30 Gebauer and Doevenspeck, “Adaptation to Climate Change and Resettlement in Rwanda,” 102.

31 David Ford, "How Does Global Warming Affect The Economy?"

32 Andy Reisinger and Harry Clark, "How Much Do Direct Livestock Emissions Actually Contribute to Global Warming?" Global Change Biology 24, no. 4 (April 2018): 1749.

33 Reisinger and Clark, “How much do Direct Livestock Emissions Actually Contribute to Global Warming?” 1749.

10

The majority of these emissions come from livestock, mainly in the form of methane and nitrous oxide, making these gases beyond the realm of human control. This is significant in that most concern regarding greenhouse gases centers on carbon dioxide, which is the most important greenhouse gas caused by human activities.34 Methane and nitrous oxide are produced by livestock by three sources: methane from enteric fermentation and manure management, nitrous oxide from manure management, and nitrous oxide from manure on soils. All three of these sources have been proven to produce greater amounts of emissions since 1970. If no changes are made in livestock farming, each of these sources of emissions will emit roughly twice as much greenhouse gases as they did in 1970 by 2100.35 The aforementioned situation in Cuba in which the soil quality is degrading is intimately attached to livestock, specifically cattle. Livestock emissions in Cuba are responsible for a great deal of Cuba’s total emissions, due mainly to “enteric digestion and lack of excreta management from large herds, both methane-producing.” This is particularly troubling in that emissions such as these have a warming capacity twenty-three times greater than that of carbon dioxide.36 Livestock such as cattle have relatively limited resistance to the effects of climate change, such as solar radiation, temperature fluctuations, droughts, and more.37 The adverse effects of livestock are not limited to Cuba, nor are they limited to cattle. For developing countries like Cuba that are reliant on agriculture, especially livestock, this presents a major threat. In the future, developing countries may look to change the animals kept on farms, opting for animals

34 Reisinger and Clark, “How much do Direct Livestock Emissions Actually Contribute to Global Warming?” 174950.

35 Reisinger and Clark, “How much do Direct Livestock Emissions Actually Contribute to Global Warming?” 1753.

36 Gonzales et al., “Effects of Climate Change on Soils of Cattle Regions from the Southern Karst Plain Habana – Matanzas, Cuba,” 140.

37 Gonzales et al., “Effects of Climate Change on Soils of Cattle Regions from the Southern Karst Plain Habana – Matanzas, Cuba,” 142.

11

more tolerant to high temperatures, animals requiring less water, and animals that have a limited impact on the environment, among other things.38 Climate change is also affecting developing countries’ agricultural sectors offshore, too.

Climate change affects the ocean affecting things like temperature, salinity, and the pH level of ocean water, among other significant changes.39 These changes can affect not only the health of fish, but also the location in which fish can be found. This is troubling for all countries, including developing countries, as fishing rights are often contested, and the movement of fish could lead to further disagreements regarding which country has rights to which area of the ocean. Seeing as a number of developing countries can be found in sub-tropical and tropical climates, where using the ocean is a longstanding tradition for economic activities like fishing or shipping, the effects of climate change on the ocean will negatively affect many developing countries. Also, tuna and similar species of fish are of particular economic importance because they are a significant human food source. This is reflected by the fact that annual catches of tuna have increased tenfold since 1950.40 A specific example of climate change affecting the ocean and, by extension, developing economies is the change in locations in which tuna can be caught. As a result of warming ocean water temperatures, warmer water species – such as tuna – are being caught in higher-latitude areas more frequently than before. Studies have shown that the percentage of tuna catches caught in tropical areas has steadily decreased in the past fifty years. Areas near the equator – particularly off the coasts of South America and Africa, as well as the middle of the Pacific

38 Gonzales et al., “Effects of Climate Change on Soils of Cattle Regions from the Southern Karst Plain Habana – Matanzas, Cuba,” 148.

39 Alberto Monllor-Hurtado, Maria Grazia Pennino, and Jose Luis Sanchez-Lizaso, "Shift in Tuna Catches Due to Ocean Warming," PLoS ONE 12, no. 6 (June 7, 2017): 1.

40 Monllor-Hurtado, Pennino, and Sanchez-Lizaso, “Shift in Tuna Catches,” 2.

12

Ocean – have seen a decrease in tuna catches, while areas closer to the poles such as the southern tip of Africa and the North Atlantic and Pacific have seen increases in tuna catches in the same time period.41 Studies have shown that ocean warming has drastically affected global fisheries, and this trend will likely continue into the future. If the past five decades are any indication, warm water species will continue to move towards the poles. This will result in a “large-scale redistribution in fishery catches in the near future,” which would affect the most vulnerable economies – developing economies. The higher latitude waters – which are affected more greatly than subtropical and tropical waters – in which tuna can now be found are becoming similar to the subtropical and tropical waters in which these tuna could once be caught regularly.42 It remains unclear just how developing countries affected by these migrations will adapt, as they could move to fish for different species or find a way to replace fish altogether. One thing is certain, though, and that is that developing economies will be negatively affected by the effects of climate change on their respective fishing industries.

While climate change has a profound impact on agriculture, this is not the end of climate change’s effects. The world has an immense amount of coastlines, and developing countries are no exception.43 If Antarctica is excluded, less than two percent of the world’s land lies at or below ten meters above sea level. However, this two percent of land contains ten percent of the world’s population. Regionally speaking, Asia contains seventy-five percent of the aforementioned ten percent of the world’s population, while Latin America contains about five-

41 Monllor-Hurtado, Pennino, and Sanchez-Lizaso, “Shift in Tuna Catches,” 5.

42 Monllor-Hurtado, Pennino, and Sanchez-Lizaso, “Shift in Tuna Catches,” 8.

43 Roshanka Ranasinghe, "Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Open Sandy Coasts: A Review," Earth-Science Reviews 160 (September 2016): 321.

13

and-a-half percent of the ten percent. The populations of Asia and Latin America are expected to grow substantially in the future, so this will continue to be a problem going forward.44 Furthermore, developing countries are inherently less able to adapt or rebuild quickly or effectively, making them more vulnerable than developed economies in this regard.

Before analyzing specific cases of coastlines being affected by climate change, it is worth analyzing a number of general effects brought by climate change that are not limited to a single region. The first of these general effects is a rise in the sea level. Since 1870, sea levels have risen by nearly two meters, caused mainly by the melting ice sheets and glaciers and the expansion of seawater, which expands as it warms.45 While this may appear relatively meaningless at first, it is notable because the constant creep of sea levels towards coastal populations will threaten their very existence. A rising sea level has a variety of effects. In the short-term, rising sea levels can cause changes in the frequency and severity of coastal flooding.

A medium-term effect of rising sea levels is sustained changes in the stability of inlets. Lastly, the long-term effects of rising sea levels are increased flood heights and coastline recession.46 Climate change will also have a noticeable effect on average wave conditions. These changes in average wave conditions will lead to significant coastal impacts, again harming developing countries. Changes in the direction of waves will have the effect of realigning beaches by increasing erosion in some areas while undoing erosion in others. This already occurs naturally, but climate change is expected to make this more frequent and severe. In addition to changes in wave directions, changes in wave height will also inflict damage. Increased wave heights – combined with aforementioned rising sea levels – will do damage to coastal cities and 44 Rodolfo Silva, et al., "Present and Future Challenges of Coastal Erosion in Latin America," Journal of Coastal Research 71 (Fall 2014): 3.

45 “Global Climate Change.”

46 Ranasinghe, "Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Open Sandy Coasts: A Review," 321.

14

towns more frequently than ever before. Changes in average wave conditions will have a number of predictable effects. In the short-term, erosion will increase, especially during storms. Another short-term effect is the formation and closure of small tidal inlets more so than ever before. In the medium-term future, there will be changes in coastal erosion and accretion, as well as changes in inlet stability. The key long-term effect of changing average wave conditions is coastline recession, which will see islands and countries change shape over time.47 A third general effect of climate change on coastlines is the effect on storms, storm waves, and storm surges. Each of these is expected to increase in terms of frequency and severity, which will understandably have adverse effects on developing economies. Should storms, storm waves, and storm surges intensify as expected, the geography of coastlines will likely change substantially.48 Intensification of any or all of these would further exacerbate the aforementioned changes that are expected, and would likely result in greater damages to coastal cities and towns, as well as the citizens and infrastructure near the coastlines. These effects may take nearly one hundred years to manifest, but they will be disastrous nonetheless.49 A specific case of coastlines being threatened and damaged by the effects of climate change can be found in Taiwan. The increase in typhoons in the western Pacific basin has seen coastlines and coastal towns affected by rising sea levels, changes in average wave conditions, and changes in storms and storm surges. The coastline in Taiwan’s Hengchun Peninsula – which is made up of uplifted coral reef remnants – is continually shuffled by each successive typhoon.50 The constant upheaval of the coastline of the Hengchun Peninsula is problematic because it, like many coastlines, serves as both an agricultural center and a population center. As time goes on, 47 Ranasinghe, "Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Open Sandy Coasts: A Review," 321-5.

48 Ranasinghe, "Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Open Sandy Coasts: A Review," 321-8.

49 Ranasinghe, "Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Open Sandy Coasts: A Review," 328.

50 Chiu et al., “Effects of Climate Change on a Mutualistic Coastal Species,” 5-13.

15

these effects are likely to increase in frequency and severity, meaning the problems experienced on the Hengchun Peninsula and in coastlines around the world will only worsen if trends continue unchanged.

In addition to outlining general effects that all countries with coastlines can expect to face, Ranasinghe’s work on evaluating the effect of climate change on coastlines also analyzes a number a specific case of coastal recession in Australia. Like Taiwan, Australia is not a developing country, but the effects it faces due to climate change are similar to those that many developing countries – such as Vietnam –will face. As Ranasinghe shows in the case of Australia, receding coastlines will cost affected countries significant amounts of money.51 This is especially true in countries which are dependent on tourism or coastal activities, as a receding coastline will result in lost revenue as well as extra expenses to rebuild, renovate, or adapt existing coastal structures.

As previously stated, Latin America is particularly vulnerable to the effects climate change will have on coastlines and coastal cities.52 The importance of Latin America’s coastlines dates back to the pre-colonial era. Indigenous Latin Americans frequently used canoe-like wooden crafts to navigate the area, meaning coastlines were integral to pre-colonial navigation.

This importance was magnified during colonialism, as the arrival of Spaniards brought the importance of trade with Europe, meaning harbors and coastal settlements were soon constructed. These harbors and settlements are still important today, as coastlines are still essential for these countries’ security and economic wellbeing.53

51 Ranasinghe, "Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Open Sandy Coasts: A Review," 328.

52 Silva et al., "Present and Future Challenges of Coastal Erosion in Latin America," 3.

53 Silva et al., "Present and Future Challenges of Coastal Erosion in Latin America," 2.

16

Of all of the Latin American countries, only Bolivia and Paraguay have no coastlines, while three countries – Cuba, Dominican Republic, and Haiti – are islands. The wealthiest Latin American countries are considered upper middle income countries, while the rest range from low income to lower middle income. To focus entirely on developing countries, any Latin American country at or above the level of upper middle income countries will not be analyzed. Therefore, it is generally agreed upon that the following Latin American countries are developing countries: Bolivia, Cuba, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Paraguay. Of these eight, Paraguay will be ignored due to its lack of a coastline.54 Given the aforementioned nature of coastal development in Latin America, which was influenced by colonialism, many major cities are on or near the coastline as a result of colonial powers desiring an easily-accessible administrative center. These population centers are relatively unchanged from the colonial era, as capital cities are still on or near the coast.

Additionally, population density is often higher near coastlines. This is especially troubling for Haiti, which is vulnerable due to its population density in coastal cities. Of the developing Latin American countries, all but Cuba are expected to have a population increase between today and 2100.55 Latin American coastlines are vulnerable to a number of hazards that would do a significant amount of damage to coastal populations. For example, cyclones – or hurricanes – present a risk for coastal populations, and these populations are becoming increasingly vulnerable as they continue to grow. However, technological advancements like early warning systems and shelters have mitigated some of this risk. Related to cyclones is the issue of rising sea levels, which threatens developing countries in Central America, such as Cuba and Haiti. An 54 Silva et al., "Present and Future Challenges of Coastal Erosion in Latin America," 2.

55 Silva et al., "Present and Future Challenges of Coastal Erosion in Latin America," 2-4.

17

additional threat to developing Latin American countries is the possibility of an increase in swell events, which result in flooding. These can be caused by cyclones or cold fronts, each of which are more frequent and severe due to climate change. Storm swells are also aided by increased coastal erosion, which is a consequence of climate change.56 Another specific example of the effects of climate change on coastlines can be found in Sorsogon City, the Philippines. Sorsogon City is a medium-sized city with a rapidly-growing population. Sorsogon City lacks the political, economic, and technical capabilities that capital cities have, which makes Sorsogon City similar to the majority of cities found in developing countries. Due to its limited ability to take action, Sorsogon City provides a good example of how similar cities are vulnerable and how these cities can take steps to mitigate the negative effects of climate change.57 Sorsogon City is particularly vulnerable due to its location on the southern tip of Luzon, the largest island of the Philippine archipelago. To make matters worse, Sorsogon City is a lowlying city, meaning it is very close to sea level. Sorsogon City is also stuck between the Pacific Ocean – by way of the Albay Gulf – and the South China Sea – through the Sorsogon Bay. Sorsogon City serves as the administrative center of the Sorsogon Province and is a common destination for migrants. Sorsogon consists of sixty-four villages covering 31,292 hectares of land. Of these sixty-four villages, thirty-seven lie along the coast, making these thirty-seven especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change.58

56 Silva et al., "Present and Future Challenges of Coastal Erosion in Latin America," 4-7.

57 Cat Button, Maria Adelaida Antonette Mias-Mamonong, Bernhard Barth, and Jonathan Rigg, "Vulnerability and Resilience to Climate Change in Sorsogon City, the Philippines: Learning from an Ordinary City?" Local Environment 18, no. 6 (2013): 705.

58 Button et al., “Vulnerability and Resilience to Climate Change in Sorsogon City,” 707.

18

According to the Manila Observatory and the Department of Environment and Natural Resources, the whole province of Sorsogon is at “Very High Risk” of exposure to climate-related disasters. More specifically, Sorsogon City’s status as a coastal, low-lying location combined with its rapidly growing and changing urban profile makes it vulnerable to both “incremental climate change and associated extreme weather events.” The incremental climate change Sorsogon City is vulnerable to consists of phenomena like rising sea levels and eroding coastlines. The extreme weather events alluded to consist of disasters such as Super Typhoons Milenyo and Reming, both of which took place in 2006. These storms combined to affect nearly thirty thousand families and destroy over ten thousand homes. During just the first five hours of Super Typhoon Milenyo, an estimated $4.3 million worth of infrastructure damage was done, proving just how costly these “extreme weather related events” can be when they occur in developing countries.59 Much like the case of Rwanda, the local government in Sorsogon City has taken measures to mitigate the effects of climate change. To do this, the Sorsogon City Climate Change Action Plan was created by city authorities and local stakeholders. This plan focuses on four areas for strategic intervention: housing and basic services; livelihoods and economic development; mainstreaming climate and disaster risk deduction; and environmental management. The Sorsogon City Climate Change Action Plan is an all-encompassing adaptation put together by a local government that will simultaneously take measures to reduce climate change and take measures to prepare for the changes associated with climate change.60 The local nature of this approach should give hope to many developing countries, as it is likely replicable in many other areas.61 59 Button et al., “Vulnerability and Resilience to Climate Change in Sorsogon City,” 705-708.

60 Button et al., “Vulnerability and Resilience to Climate Change in Sorsogon City,” 711-14.

61 Button et al., “Vulnerability and Resilience to Climate Change in Sorsogon City,” 715-20.

19

Overall, climate change affects developing countries and limits their ability to develop in a variety of ways. While this analysis focuses only on the effects climate change has on agriculture and the coastline, the effects reach much further than these two areas. Developing economies consist of far more than these two aspects, as sectors such as manufacturing or industry also play an important role in supporting developing countries and furthering the development of developing countries. However, effects on sectors such as manufacturing and industry are largely a result of governmental policies rather than climate change itself. The agricultural sector and coastlines, on the other hand, are directly affected by climate change, which is often – at least in part – a result of actions in sectors such as manufacturing and industry. Therefore, it is best to analyze the effect of climate change on agriculture and coastlines, as these offer the best idea of how climate change will affect developing countries and their ability to develop going forward.

Looking towards the future, it is clear that climate change will affect the world in drastic ways, and the worst of these effects will be felt by developing countries. Given the status and limited capabilities of developing countries, it is unlikely that very many top-down approaches to adaptation will be made. What is more likely is the use of localized, bottom-up approaches like those of Rwanda or Sorsogon City, which mix local governments with members of the community to work together towards a common goal.

20

Works Cited Button, Cat, Maria Adelaida Antonette Mias-Mamonong, Bernhard Barth, and Jonathan Rigg.

"Vulnerability and Resilience to Climate Change in Sorsogon City, the Philippines: Learning from an Ordinary City?" Local Environment 18, no. 6 (2013): 705-22.

Chiu, Yu-Ting, Anthony Bain, Shu-Lin Deng, Yi-Chiao Ho, Wen-Hsuan Chen, and Hsy-Yu Tzeng. "Effects of Climate Change on a Mutualistic Coastal Species: Recovery from Typhoon Damages and Risks of Population Erosion." PLoS ONE 12, no. 10 (October 26, 2017): 1-18.

Febles Gonzales, J. M., J. Somoza Cabrera, Marina B. Vega, N. Amaral Sobrinho, A. Calderin Garcia, and J. M. Febles Diaz. "Effects of Climate Change on Soils of Cattle Regions from the Southern Karst Plain Habana - Matanzas, Cuba." Cuban Journal of Agricultural Science51, no. 1 (2017): 139-51.

Ford, David. "How Does Global Warming Affect The Economy?" Forbes. July 13, 2017. https://www.forbes.com/sites/quora/2017/07/13/how-does-global-warming-affect-theeconomy/#c56437634a10.

Gebauer, Claudia, and Martin Doevenspeck. "Adaptation to Climate Change and Resettlement in Rwanda." Area 47, no. 1 (March 2015): 97-104.

"Global Climate Change." NASA. June 03, 2014. https://climate.nasa.gov/.

Monllor-Hurtado, Alberto, Maria Grazia Pennino, and Jose Luis Sanchez-Lizaso. "Shift in Tuna Catches Due to Ocean Warming." PLoS ONE 12, no. 6 (June 7, 2017): 1-10.

Nasir, Muhammad Jamal, Anwar Saeed Khan, and Said Alam. "Climate Change and Agriculture: An Overview of Farmers' Perceptions and Adaptations in Balambat Tehsil, District Dir Lower, Pakistan." Sarhad Journal of Agriculture 34, no. 1 (March 31, 2018): 85-92.

Oatley, Thomas. International Political Economy. 5th ed. New York: Routledge, 2012.

Rahman, Muhammad Abdul, Abdul Saboor, Irfan Ahmad Baig, Usman Shakoor, and Humaira Kanwal. "An Investigation of the Impact of Climate Change on Rice Crop in Pakistan: A Multivariate Analysis." Pakistan Journal of Agricultural Sciences 54, no. 03 (2017): 561-66.

Ranasinghe, Roshanka. "Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Open Sandy Coasts: A Review." Earth-Science Reviews 160 (September 2016): 320-32.

Reisinger, Andy, and Harry Clark. "How Much Do Direct Livestock Emissions Actually Contribute to Global Warming?" Global Change Biology 24, no. 4 (April 2018): 1749761.

Rosenzweig, Cynthia, and Daniel Hillel. "Agriculture and Climate Change: Effects and Responses." Pi Kappa Phi Forum 87, no. 1 (Winter 2007): 19-24.

21

Silva, Rodolfo, M. Luisa Martinez, Patrick A. Hesp, Patricio Catalan, Andres F. Osorio, Raul Martell, Monica Fossati, et al. "Present and Future Challenges of Coastal Erosion in Latin America." Journal of Coastal Research 71 (Fall 2014): 1-16.

Wade, Robert Hunter. Global Political Economy. Edited by John Ravenhill. 4th ed. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2014.

Wesseh, Presley K., Jr., and Boqiang Lin. "Climate Change and Agriculture Under CO2 Fertilization Effects and Farm Level Adaptation: Where Do the Models Meet?" Applied Energy 195 (2017): 556-71.

"Who Are the Developing Countries in the WTO?" World Trade Organization. Accessed April 20, 2018. https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/devel_e/d1who_e.htm.

22