GSN Real Estate 061922

REAL ESTATE

GILBERT SUN NEWS | JUNE 19, 2022

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Despite market shifts, home sellers still have advantage

BY MINDY JONES GSN Columnist

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he race to balance is well underway in the Valley with many homeowners asking what might happen to the equity that they’ve built up in their home.

Meanwhile, buyers are pleasantly surprised by the increase in inventory and the potential to negotiate and we find both parties trying to establish their footing as seller’s hang on to the fact that there still are not enough houses for everyone who wants one.

We’ve watched closely as inventory

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has risen over the last two months due in part to buyer demand falling and in part due to new listings coming to the market at an increasingly rapid pace and have seen declining sales volume, increased number of price reductions, listing cancellations and expirations, increased days inventory, and the flattening of active list price dollar per square foot.

Taking a look at the May affidavit counts, we can see that closed sales are down about 10% year over year while the median sales price is up 21.8% year over year – meaning that although sales volume is declining, closed prices continue to increase.

Despite the feeling of many that the market has come to a screeching halt,

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the overall monthly median sales price increased 2.6% between April and June alone.

Taking a quick peek at new construction, we see that sales prices are increasing slightly faster than the resale market but only by about 4% while the rental market continues to cool with a 40% increase in new rental listings year over year and many of those leasing below the asking price.

Like the market shift that we saw suddenly at the beginning of COVID, we are starting to see some cities pull away

from the strong sellers market they’d been in at a faster rate than others. That means that understanding what the market is doing in YOUR neighborhood and in YOUR town has never been more important.

Here in Gilbert, we’re seeing about three times the inventory we saw last quarter and about 30% more inventory than we saw two years ago however with current demand for the town’s available housing, we are still sitting at only about a month’s worth of inventory as opposed

see MINDY page RE2

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◆ Home Staging Report by Interior Designer & Stager ◆ Professional video of home ◆ Professional photos of home ◆ Twilight photos ◆ Community photos ◆ Aerial drone video/photos ◆ 3D Interactive floor plan - Matterport www.fosteringre.com Each office is independently owned and operated ◆ Open house first weekend on the market

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See Page 5

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REAL ESTATE

MINDY from page re1

to the three to six months we’d need to be in balance.

Our sales per year have fallen but so has our days on market – which is another indicator that while headed towards balance, we’re not there quite yet.

Under contract and closed prices have continued to rise but active listing $/sf has stabilized, still at more than $300/sf as compared to $185 just two years ago.

Homes are still selling on average for 102.18% of list price as compared to 98.99% two years ago but with both demand and supply below normal, it will be interesting to see how long we remain above 100%.

As market conditions continue to improve for buyers in spite of higher interest rates, we expect to see sellers compete with each other by offering concessions, buying down interest rates, and giving those without all cash offers

GOT NEWS?

GILBERT SUN NEWS | JUNE 19, 2022

a chance to win without waiving the appraisal, inspection period, or giving up their first born.

Expecting that interest rates will fluctuate and prices will continue to rise at least in the short term, buyers with a little more say in the negotiation process can expect opportunities in the future to refinance while building equity in their investment rather than waiting for rates or prices to decline.

While we’re certainly not in a buyers market – let alone a balanced market, for that matter – buyers should have a little more pep in their step after two years of intense warfare for homes in the Valley as they have more homes to choose from and a more prominent seat at the table.

The good news is that sellers haven’t lost any ground or equity, they’ll just need to pull up a chair alongside their buyer counterparts instead of always

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sitting at the head of the table.

Mindy Jones, a Gilbert Realtor and owner of the Amy Jones Group brokered by EXP

Contact Paul Maryniak at 480-898-5647 or pmaryniak@timeslocalmedia.com

Realty, can be reached at 480-250-3857, Mindy@AmyJonesGroup.com or AmyJonesGroup.com.

REAL ESTATE

GILBERT SUN NEWS | JUNE 19, 2022

Rental scene may be changing – for now

BY PAUL MARYNIAK GSN Executive Editor

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he rental market both locally and nationally is cooling a bit – but analysts said two weeks ago there might not be much reason to celebrate on either front.

Apartmentlist.com, a nationwide rental listing firm, said trends in apartment vacancies and rent indicate that more empty apartments are entering the market and rent increases are slowing, but that likely won’t remain the case longterm.

And looking at the Phoenix Metro area, the Cromford Report said that even the limited rental data available on the Arizona Regional Multi Listing Service shows that “though the median lease price has increased over the 12 months, far more listings are leasing below the asking price and far more listings are appearing on the ARMLS database.

“Landlords do not bother to list their

ApartmentList.com showed this nationwide trajectory in apartment vacancies and rent increases, but said these favorable trends may be adversely affected by cooling home sales. (apartmentlist.com)

properties on the MLS if they expect them to lease up very quickly and easily,” the Cromford Report said. “So the

fact that we are seeing a 40% increase in new rental listings compared with 2021 shows us that landlords are less confi-

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dent than they were a year ago.”

Nevertheless, sales of apartment complexes are continuing at a major pace – often at prices that are more than double what they sold for only a few years ago.

The Cromford Report said that in the Valley, nearly three-quarters of the 1,473 leases that closed in May 2021 came in at the asking rental price while 18.3% were below. By contrast, last month saw just over half of the 1,954 closed leases settle at the asking price and 41.6% fall below it.

Still, the median closed lease price last month was $2,200 – higher than the $1,900 median a year ago.

“The rental listings on ARMLS are not a balanced cross-section of the rental market,” the Cromford Report cautioned. “They tend to be skewed towards higher-end properties and single-family homes rather than relatively affordable apartments.”

see RENT page RE5

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REAL ESTATE

GILBERT SUN NEWS | JUNE 19, 2022

New models released for 485-home community in Gilbert

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ri Pointe Homes has opened 12 new model homes and two new galleries at Waterston North, a new 485-home community in south Gilbert, Customers can now make an appointment to tour the model homes – two in each of the six new gated neighborhoods — Aderyn, Kestrel, Meadowlark, Starling, Tanager and Whimbrel.

“We are incredibly excited about the debut of our new model homes and new home galleries at Waterston North given the high quality and great variety of thoughtfully designed offerings in addition to the record-approaching sales track record that the planned community has built,” said Tri Pointe Homes Arizona’s Division President James Attwood.

Homes in Waterston North’s new neighborhoods range from approximately 1,830 to 3,970 square feet with three to five bedrooms, 2 to 3.5 baths and 2- to

Buying or Selling a Home?

3-bay garages. The neighborhoods will consist of Aderyn with 104 homesites, Kestrel with 73 homesites, Meadowlark with 94 homesites, Starling with 69 homesites, Tanager with 70 homesites, and Whimbrel with 75 homesites.

Each neighborhood will offer four floor plans to choose from with the exception of Starling with five. Varying by plan, the homes will offer executive gourmet kitchens, large pantries and laundry rooms, extended patios, central game rooms and private courtyards for residents to enjoy.

Homebuyers can also select multigenerational living packages.

Waterston’s newest amenities include Central Lake with a great lawn, pool and clubhouse, and pocket parks and walking trails within each of the new neighborhoods. The design of Waterston draws on the natural environment of neighboring Veterans Oasis Park and Gilbert Recreation Center.

Information: tripointehomes.com.

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REAL ESTATE

GILBERT SUN NEWS | JUNE 19, 2022

RENT from page re3

“Rental prices have not changed a lot in the last five months and the median lease price seems to have hit a stable patch around $2,200,” it said, adding that the 2,385 vacancies reported on June 5 was up 26% from Jan. 1 and 79% form Sept. 1.

Those trends are similar to what apartmentlist.com reported.

“In Phoenix, for example, rents have increased by just 2 percent over the past six months, during which time the city’s vacancy index has gradually eased back to 5 percent, close to where it was before the onset of the pandemic,” Apartmentlist. com said last week.

“After experiencing significant disruption over the past two years, the rental market has begun to gradually stabilize,” it continued. “The markets that saw large spikes in vacancies in the early pandemic have since seen renters return. Meanwhile, demand has started to level off in the nation’s hottest markets. That said, the availability of vacant units nationally remains notably constrained compared to the pre-pandemic norm.

“Even if our national vacancy index continues its gradual easing, it won’t surpass 6 percent until well into next year on its current trajectory.”

Apartment list also said that the rapid cooling of the housing market may have an adverse impact on rental units’ supply and, consequently, rates.

“There are factors at play which could present headwinds to that easing,” it said. “Although we’re now at the start of the busy season for the rental market, when the bulk of moving activity normally takes place, rapidly rising rents may incentivize many renters to stay put and renew existing leases rather than looking for new ones.

“At the same time, the recent spike in mortgage rates has created yet another barrier to a historically difficult for-sale market, potentially sidelining would-be homebuyers and keeping them in the rental market. Given these factors, it’s possible that the easing of our vacancy index could level off in the coming months.”

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In Mesa, six complexes and one condo community changed hands in the last four weeks in deals totaling $459 million.

The biggest deal involved the $142-million sale of the 460-unit Indian Springs Apartments on South Stewart, near Southern Avenue and Alma School Road, by California-based Open Path Investments to Rise48 Equity of Phoenix, according to Valley real estate tracker vizzda.com.

Built in 1985, the complex consists of 25 buildings, three pools and basketball/ tennis court, three laundromats and a club house on just under 10 acres.

The sale equaled a per-square-foot price of $723 and a per-unit price of $308,685, vizzda said.

Last week, California-based TIC Group shelled out $125 million for the Talise Apartments, a 388-unit complex, built in 1984, on Gilbert Road and University Drive.

Another big transaction also saw Rise48 Equity buying the 288-unit The Nolan on W. Broadway Road for $92 mil-

3477 E Penedes Dr, Gilbert, AZ 85298

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lion. Northmarq Phoenix said its investment sales team ’s investment sales and debt and equity teams represented the buyer.

The sale price was more than three times greater than the $30 million that seller Benedict Canyon Equities paid for the 36-year-old complex in 2018, The gated complex comprises 18 two-story residential buildings, three pools and a clubhouse on 12.3 acres.

Vizzda said the sale broke down to a per-unit cost of #319,444.

Rise48 Equity plans to renovate the interiors of all the units at The Nolan, Northmarq said in a release.

“Rise48 has purchased over 1,000 multifamily units in Arizona since the start of 2022, and over $1 billion in transactions since 2019,” said Brandon Harrington, a member of Northmarq’s debt and equity team. “They continue to seek out well-positioned communities with value-add opportunities through improvements to the individual units and the complex amenities.”