How TikTok Drives
E-commerce
Sales in Greece: A Meta-Analysis by Kinesso
April 2025
Kinesso Marketing Mix Modeling
Greece | 15 e-commerce models
Abstract
This study presents the results of a comprehensive meta-analysis conducted by Kinesso’s Marketing Analytics team to quantify TikTok’s impact on e-commerce sales in Greece. Using robust Marketing Mix Modeling (MMM) across 15 validated models between 2023-2025, covering multiple verticals (from retail, financial, beauty, and cosmetics) the research highlights TikTok’s role as a full-funnel channel that delivers measurable sales for e-commerce alongside brand awareness. Despite a relatively modest share of wallet within the overall media mix, TikTok consistently strengthened each stage of the customer journey, increasing advertising awareness, consideration, and driving incremental sales The findings position TikTok as an efficient, high-impact platform within a holistic media strategy offering brands a powerful lever to growth
The Challenge
For e-commerce brands, understanding how different advertising channels contribute to sales is critical. TikTok platform, with its unique mix of short-form storytelling and high user engagement, is an ideal channel for building trust and driving purchase intent especially among mobile-first consumers. According to the latest data, TikTok users continue to grow, and 2025 has not been an exception, reaching almost half of the whole Greek population. In Greece, TikTok has a key role in every step of the journey. Starting from 37% of TikTok users in the last year have used the platform, to find information about products and brands (TikTok Marketing Science SEU Research April 2025, GR results). However, accurately measuring TikTok’s true impact requires robust measurement frameworks. This is where Marketing Mix Modeling (MMM) proves invaluable. MMM offers an advanced, data-driven approach to measure the performance of various marketing efforts empowers brands to make informed decisions to optimize the media mix investment across channels.
By evaluating the combined influence of multiple marketing activities and external factors, the MMM solution quantifies TikTok’s incremental contribution within the media mix, overcoming the limitations of last-click attribution or siloed metrics. Nevertheless, isolating TikTok’s direct effect on sales, both in the short and long term, remains challenging, particularly for brands investing across a diverse media ecosystem.
The Solution
To address this, Kinesso’s Marketing Analytics team in Greece conducted a meta-analysis of 15 Marketing Mix Modeling (MMM) studies carried out between 2023 and 2025 across various industries, including beauty and cosmetics, financial services and retail, with the focus on e-commerce sales These studies were developed using Megastar, Kinesso’s proprietary modeling solution, which combines decades of expertise in Statistical Modeling, enhanced by the latest advancements in Machine Learning automation
This approach provides statistically validated answers to crucial questions:
- How much does TikTok really contribute to sales?
- How much more can brands invest in TikTok before returns diminish?
- How TikTok performs in the short and in the long term for the e-commerce brands?
The results shed light on how powerful TikTok can be as a full-funnel channel.
Methodology
Kinesso apply Megastar, the proprietary modelling solution, combines decades of expertise in regression analysis with the latest Machine Learning automation techniques Parameter estimation is performed using Model Builder, a dynamic modelling framework based on Bayesian Regression, ensuring robust calibration of all model variables The modelling process addresses the following aspects:
- Duration of media effectiveness: the persistence of advertising impact is quantified using adstock methods to capture both short-term and long-term effects on sales.
- Ideal investment: diminishing returns are assessed through saturation curves, identifying optimal spend levels and optimize the media mix investment .
- Forecasting and scenario planning: The modelling results are leveraged to optimize strategies, enable simulation of multiple budget allocation scenarios, supporting data-driven investment decisions and ROI maximization. This approach provides a robust and transparent framework for measuring media contribution and optimizing marketing effectiveness across channels.
Measuring TikTok contribution across the funnel
While TikTok is often seen primarily as an awareness platform, the data shows that it delivers meaningful impact across the entire funnel On average, media channels drive around 30% of e-commerce sales TikTok, despite modest investment levels, contributes an average of 5% of sales demonstrating its growing importance in the media mix: fueling 17% of awareness, 33% of consideration and 50% of sales About the campaign objective of ecommerce advertising, these studies showed that traffic and video views campaigns account for 85% of this impact, with Reach & Frequency campaigns delivering the remaining 15%
Media Contributions to sales Benchmarks by category
TikTok’s Contribution to the stages of the marketing funnel
The relevant shares of awareness of advertising objective
6.1€
TikTok Short-Term ROI x2.5
Ad-stock Against all other media avg +80%
Saturation point current investment
+23%
ROI increase with Synergy
E-commerce Growth with TikTok
TikTok provides a significant impact on short and long term
In today’s highly competitive e-commerce environment, marketers must ensure that every euro works harder, delivering short-term sales while also building long-term brand value.
TikTok stands out in this regard: it achieves a strong short-term ROI of 6.1 (over a 13-week period) +29% higher than digital media average. In practice, this means €1 invested in TikTok generates €6.1 in revenue.
TikTok ads demonstrate exceptional staying power, remaining top-of-mind with consumers 2.5 times longer than the average across all other media channels This prolonged memorability is especially valuable in advertising, since higher ad-stock means that each euro invested continues to influence consumer attitudes and purchase intent well beyond the initial impression, maximizing the return on media investment even after the campaign has ended By delivering longer residual impact than other digital and traditional media, TikTok helps advertisers achieve both short-term performance and lasting brand value, making it an effective driver of incremental growth in competitive e-commerce markets
The Importance of Synergy to maximize Results
This dual impact is amplified when brands run Awareness and Performance campaigns together The meta-analysis reveals that awareness-focused campaigns not only strengthen upperfunnel metrics but also enhance lower-funnel results: when both objectives are active simultaneously boost overall sales contribution by +5.5% and driving a total ROI increase of +23%
Notably, TikTok’s awareness investments are 1.7× more efficient than comparable spend on other digital channels, making it one of the most cost-effective platforms for driving broad reach and impactful storytelling
TikTok vs Other Media
TikTok delivers 2X higher ROI of TV media and 1.3X higher that of Digital Video, making it one of the most efficient video platforms for driving measurable business outcome. Moreover, TikTok shows strong performance compared to other media channels both in the short and long term. Despite having a relatively modest share of wallet, TikTok contributes 5% of total media-driven revenue, proving its ability to punch well above its weight and presenting a strong case for brands to increase their investment.
Synergy
Increasing TikTok awareness spend initially drives strong incremental value to total performance media sales. However, we observe a diminishing return effect as spend continues to rise. Current investment level (~100%) delivers ~6.5% added value. Saturation point (~400%) shows ~12.5% added value, after which incremental gains plateau. Finally, TikTok provides brands with substantial room to scale before diminishing returns set in. Econometric modeling shows that advertisers can increase TikTok ad spend by up to 80% on average before reaching the saturation point, defined as the moment when each additional euro invested yields less than €1 in incremental revenue. This headroom highlights TikTok’s untapped potential within the broader media mix.
Added Value to Total Performance Media Sales Vs TikTok Spend
TikTok Paid Social Radio Digital Video Television
ROI per Media Channel
Conclusion
The meta-analysis conducted by Kinesso’s Marketing Analytics team provides robust, statistically validated evidence of TikTok’s role as a highly effective full-funnel marketing channel for e-commerce brands in Greece. Despite representing a relatively modest share of overall media spend, TikTok consistently delivers measurable impact across all stages of the customer journey.
The results highlight not only TikTok’s above-average return on investment (+29% higher than other digital media) but also its exceptional lasting impact: TikTok ads remain top-of-mind 2 5 times longer than the average across other channels This combination of strong short-term performance and long-term brand building makes TikTok a strategic lever for sustainable growth in competitive e-commerce markets Moreover, the analysis underscores the importance of combining Awareness and Performance campaigns Running both objectives simultaneously increases TikTok’s sales contribution by +5 5% and drives a total ROI uplift of +23% Additionally, the substantial headroom for scaling, with potential to increase spend by up to 80% before reaching the saturation point, confirms that TikTok remains an under-leveraged channel within the broader media mix, offering brands significant untapped growth potential
Final Takeouts
- TikTok is an effective full-funnel channel: It drives measurable results across awareness, consideration, and sales, outperforming average benchmarks for both digital and traditional media.
- High ROI and lasting impact: With a short-term ROI of 6 1 and an ad-stock effect 2 5× longer than other channels, every euro invested works harder and delivers impact well beyond the campaign period
- Synergy maximizes results: Combining Awareness and Performance campaigns enhances both upper- and lower-funnel metrics, boosting sales contribution by +5.5% and overall ROI by +23%.
- Significant room for scale: Brands can safely increase TikTok investment by up to 80% before hitting diminishing returns, unlocking further revenue growth within an efficient, high-impact platform.
Conclusioni e Final Takeout
“At Kinesso, we believe that measurement is the key to guiding brands toward smarter, more impactful media strategies and sustainable growth. Through MMM brands can truly understand what drives performance and how to optimize investment decisions. Thanks to the rigorous work of Kinesso’s Marketing Analytics team, this study uncovered clear, evidence-based insights into TikTok’s role as a full-funnel driver for e-commerce brands. The analysis provided strong, validated proof of the platform’s value at every stage of the customer journey.”
Dominique Mikaits, CEO of Kinesso Greece
“This project is a great example of what can be achieved when the team work closely together with a shared focus on measurement and impact. Thanks to the strong collaboration with Kinesso and the Marketing Analytics team, we were able to unlock meaningful insights on how TikTok drives both brand equity and business results. Studies like this not only validate TikTok’s full-funnel effectiveness, but also help brands make more informed, strategic media decisions”
Fanis Theodoror, Senior Partnerships Manager TikTok Greece