POLITICS
Ukraine: The Big Questions Lenin (a leader of the Russian Revolution in 1917) once remarked that “there are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.” The latter seems to be correct when it comes to the war in Ukraine. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has seen large-scale warfare return to Europe for the first time in nearly 80 years. This is big news, terrifying news, with many in the West concerned about the conflict escalating towards a confrontation between two nuclear powers. It is certainly one of the most consequential political events of our time — and one of the most confusing, dominating the global news agenda as events move with incredible pace and with implications for global stability. What follows is an attempt to make some sense of all of this by tackling a few of the biggest questions everyone is asking about the war. It’s not enough to know what’s happening. We need to know why it’s happening, and what may happen next.
Kremlin, and backed by disguised Russian troops, about 14,000 people have died, and 1 million people have fled to escape the fighting in the eight years since then. Beneath Putin’s rhetoric, according to experts on Russia, lies a deeper unstated fear: that his regime might fall prey to a similar protest movement that led to Yanukovych’s downfall. Ukraine could not succeed as a state, in his view, because it might create a pro-Western model for Russians to emulate. This was a central part of his thinking in 2014, and it remains so today. In July 2021, Putin’s rhetoric became more aggressive as he published a 5000-word essay arguing there was no Ukrainian nation, that the country was historically always part of Russia, and that a pro-Western Ukraine posed an existential threat to the Russian nation. This demonstrates his longtime belief in the urgency of restoring Russia’s greatness combined with a desire to bring Ukraine back under direct Russian control. And in Russia, where Putin rules basically unchecked, that meant a full-scale war.
Why did Russia invade Ukraine?
What has the war meant for ordinary UkrainiIn a speech on February 24th, Russian President Vladimir ans? Putin said the invasion was designed to achieve “the demilitarisation and de-Nazification of Ukraine.” This rhetoric revealed Putin’s aims of regime change and the elimination of Ukraine’s status as a sovereign state outside of Russian control. Ukraine and Russia have significant, deep, and longstanding cultural and historical ties and, whilst part of the Soviet Union since the 1920s, this rule ended in 1991 when 92% of Ukrainians voted for independence in a referendum. Fast forward to 2013: Ukraine’s then president, Viktor Yanukovych, wanted Ukraine to be loyal to Russia, so he decided not to sign a trade agreement which would bring Ukraine closer to Europe. Ukrainians protested, kicked Yanukovych out of office, and elected a government that favoured Europe rather than Russia. Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed that, despite this change in government, most Ukrainians wanted ties with Russia. He also worried that Ukraine would join the NATO military alliance with the U.S. and Europe and that this would present a threat to Russia. In response, Russia took over an area in southern Ukraine called Crimea in 2014. They sent soldiers and weapons to eastern Ukraine, claiming to be helping people who wanted to be part of Russia. Armed by the 6
As the fighting continues, Russia has started using tactics that hurt civilians. Most notably, they have attempted to lay siege to Ukraine’s cities, cutting off supply and escape routes while bombarding them with artillery. The purpose of the strategy is to wear down the Ukrainian defenders’ willingness to fight, by inflicting mass pain on the civilian populations. According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, more than 3.8 million Ukrainians fled the country between February 24th and March 27th. That’s about 8.8% of Ukraine’s total population, causing massive refugee flows to its European neighbours. For those civilians who have been unable to flee, the situation is dire. There are no reliable estimates of death totals; a UN estimate puts the figure at 1,119 but cautions that the actual figures will be considerably higher. Nowhere is this devastation more visible than the southern city of Mariupol, the largest Ukrainian population centre to which Russia has laid siege. Airstrikes and shells have hit the maternity hospital, the fire department, homes, a church, and come close to a school. For the estimated hundreds of thousands who remain, there is simply nowhere to go. The surrounding roads are mined, and the port blocked. Food is running out, and the Russians have
