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The Moorabool News – 29 March, 2022 Page 25
THE 2022 BFNL SEASON DRAW The winners and losers ...
Local footy writer Todd Whelan ranks the 2022 BFNL draw easiest to hardest. 1. Sunbury - 95 Play TWICE: Darley, Melton, Ballarat, Lake Wendouree, Melton South, Bacchus Marsh Travel WEST: FOUR times - North Ballarat City (Rd1), Sebastopol (Rd8), Lakers (Rd12), Ballarat (Rd17). WEST ‘highway travel’ record (last 3 home and away seasons): P11 W3 L8 @27% WIN - #7 PROS: Meet FOUR of bottom 5 from 2021 TWICE - Bacchus Marsh, Lake Wendouree, Melton South, Darley. - Play just TWO Top 6 from 2021 TWICE - Melton and Ballarat - AWAY just ONCE Rd10 - Rd14 (v Lake Wendouree Rd13) CONS: Have only ONE home game before round six with meetings on the road against North Ballarat City (Rd1), Melton (Rd2) and improved Darley (Rd5). - Comment: Sunbury will be rapt with their draw - meet big guns North, East Point and Sebastopol only ONCE. Based on the draw formula alone, the Lions play finals.
2. Redan - 100 Play TWICE: Melton South, Bacchus Marsh, Lake Wendouree, Darley, Sebastopol, Ballarat Travel EAST: FOUR times - Sunbury (Rd7), Melton South (Rd8), Darley (Rd14), Bacchus Marsh (Rd17) EAST ‘highway travel’ record (last 3 home and away seasons): P10 W3 L7 @30% WIN - #6 PROS: Play only TWO teams (Sebastopol, Ballarat) TWICE from top 6 2021. - DO NOT leave Ballarat until Rd7. - Play FOUR of FIVE BOTTOM sides from 2021 TWICE - THREE HOME games in a row (Ballarat Rd4, Bacchus Marsh Rd5, Darley Rd6) - HOME THREE out FOUR weeks mid-season (Rd9-Rd12) CONS: - Tough FIVE WEEK block of games Rd9-Rd13 (North Ballarat City, Melton, East Point, Sebastopol, Ballarat) - Back-to-back HIGHWAY TRAVEL games (Sunbury Rd7, Melton South Rd8) Comment: After back-to-back ranked easiest draws, Redan must settle for the #2 preferred draw in 2022 according to the formula. The above mentioned ‘Pros’ suggest the Lions will have every chance to make it but there are doubts over the playing list (depth) featuring at the business end.
3. Sebastopol - 101 Play TWICE: East Point, North Ballarat City, Ballarat, Redan, Ballarat, Bacchus Marsh Travel EAST: THREE times: Melton South (Rd7), Melton (Rd11), Bacchus Marsh (Rd14). EAST ‘highway travel’ record (last 3 home and away seasons): P9 W3 L6 @33% WIN - #5 PROS: Play just THREE ‘HIGHWAY TRAVEL’ games (East) - BACK-TO-BACK games v top 6 teams from 2021 only ONCE - (Sunbury Rd8 (h), Ballarat Rd9 (a)) CONS: Play FOUR of top 6 from 2021 TWICE - up from THREE (projected) in 2021 - At HOME just TWICE Rd9-Rd16 (Ballarat Rd9, Melton Rd11, Redan Rd12, Bacchus Marsh Rd14, North Ballarat City Rd16 all AWAY) Comment:- A very even draw awaits flag contenders Sebastopol, especially in the first half half of the season. With renovations at Marty Busch Reserve complete the ‘Burras face backto-back ‘AWAY’ games just once for the year (Rd11-Rd12). Their round 14 and 16 ‘away’ meets with Bacchus Marsh and North Ballarat City are split by a timely bye in Rd15. Only injury will cost the ‘Burras a finals berth.
4. Bacchus Marsh - 102 Play TWICE: Darley, Melton, Redan, Melton South, Sunbury, Sebastopol Travel WEST: FOUR times - Redan (Rd5), East Point (Rd7), North Ballarat City (Rd8), Sebastopol (Rd10) WEST ‘highway travel’ record (last 3 home and away seasons): P12 W3 L9 @25% WIN - #8 PROS: Play THREE top 6 teams from 2021 - (Melton, Sunbury, Sebastopol) - Meet 2021 heavyweights North Ballarat City and East Point just ONCE. - NO Highway travel (West) after Rd10 - AWAY from HOME ONCE after Rd14 (Rd18 v Sunbury) - Meet THREE of BOTTOM FOUR in 2021 TWICE. CONS: HORROR RUN (includes THREE HIGHWAY travel games) - Rd7-Rd10 (East Point (a), North Ballarat City (a), Sunbury (h), Sebastopol (a)) Comment: Can the Cobras improve on their highway travel returns and win in Ballarat having won just 3 of their last 12 attempts? They should win enough games at home to be in the mix for an Elimination FInal berth but there’s another three or four teams eyeing a similar scenario. The Cobras draw for 2022 has done them no harm. 5. North Ballarat City - 102 Play TWICE: Sebastopol, East Point, Ballarat, Melton, Melton South, Darley. Travel EAST: FOUR times - Sunbury (Rd1), Melton (Rd6), Melton South (Rd11), Darley (Rd18). EAST ‘highway travel’ record last 3 home and away seasons: P11 W4 L7 @36% WIN #3 PROS: Have FOUR PAIRINGS of back-to-back HOME games - Timely ‘byes’ throughout season Rd7 and Rd12 - Leave Ballarat just TWICE between Rd2 and Rd17 (Melton Rd6, Melton South Rd10) CONS: FACE biggest threats of 2021 East Point, Melton and Sebastopol TWICE - TOUGH RUN - Part 1st half draw-Rd3-Rd6 (Ballarat, East Point, Sebastopol (a), Melton (a)) - TOUGH RUN - Part 2nd half draw-Rd13-Rd16 (Melton, East Point (a), Ballarat (a), Sebastopol) - ‘AWAY’ FOUR of SIX weeks Rd9 - Rd15 (Redan Rd9, Melton South Rd10, Bye Rd12, East Point Rd14, Ballarat Rd15) Comment: You can guarantee astute footy mentor Brendan MaCartney will return locked and loaded with arguably the fittest group of young blokes for another tilt at a ‘full season’ flag for North Ballarat City. MaCartney makes no qualms about his mission - to push the ‘kids’ through. We saw boys become men last year as City dropped just one of it’s 10 games. Expect more of the same regardless of the draw - opposition sides must’ turn up’ to play ( NBC first qtrs 2021 - 10-0) or wear the brunt. Note they ARE gettable and remain a work in progress.. 6. Melton - 105 Play TWICE: Melton South, Sunbury, Bacchus Marsh, North Ballarat City, East Point, Lake Wendouree. Travel WEST: FIVE times - Ballarat (Rd5), Lake Wendouree (Rd7), Redan (Rd10), North Ballarat City (Rd13), East Point (Rd17). WEST ‘highway travel’ record last 3 home and away seasons: P10 W4 L6 @40% WIN - #2 PROS:- AWAY just TWICE Rd8-Rd15 (Redan Rd10 (a), North Ballarat City Rd13 (a)) - Play just THREE of top 6 from 2021 twice (Sunbury, North Ballarat City, East Point) - Back-to-back AWAY games just ONCE (Sunbury Rd16, East Point Rd17) CONS:- FIVE HIGHWAY TRAVEL trips (COMP HIGH) - TOUGH RUN - Part 2nd half draw Rd13 - Rd17 (North Ballarat City (a), Melton South (h), Bye, Sunbury (a), East Point (a) Comment: A better draw for the Bloods in 2022 according to the formula despite another (comp high) FIVE highway trips to Ballarat. At least the Bloods have a 40 % win rate in Ballarat last three seasons (comp rank #2 for highway travel games East-West, West-East ) that should hold them in good stead. Aaron Tymms men are well organised and have proven a trusty outfit over recent seasons. The draw suggests finals are likely, but given a quiet off season, questions will be asked of a young group minus experienced quartet Ben Archard, Dyson Stevens, Kevin Klixx and Matty Denham to maintain the momentum.