Visitor Survey Results from Natura2000 sites in Norfolk - planning 2016

• Strategic level understanding of visitor use of European sites across whole county.

• Current visitor levels, and profile of visitors, e.g. activities being undertaken to help inform the impact on landscapes/wildlife.

• Understanding the ‘catchment’/‘draw’ of sites and how these relate to future population levels.

• ->appropriate mitigation to facilitate suitable new development .

• Interviews with a random sample of visitors on site.

• 40 survey points – 2 days, 16 hours at each location.

• Access points to sites where recreation and wildlife coincide.

• Timing of surveys to coincide with designated interest – may/may not coincide with peak of people.

• Includes some seasonal repeats.

• Range of questions for visitor profiling – activity, frequency of visit, reasons for visiting.

• Routes.

• Home postcode.

• Tally count of people entering and leaving sites.

Tally counts: • 6 k groups were recorded entering or leaving sites -> 14 k adults, 2 k minors and 3 k dogs.

• But variable between survey points and areas.

18: Barnham Cross 14: Cranwich Camp 12: East Wretham 11: High Lodge 15: Lynford Stag 10: Mildenhall Woods 16: St Helens 13: Swaffham Heath 19: West Harling 2: Hickling Broad (S) 1: Hickling Broad (W) 4: Horning 3: How Hill 5: Ranworth 9: Strumpshaw Car Park 8: Upton Green 7: Breydon Water north (S) 6: Breydon Water north (W) 36: Breydon Water south 21: Horsey Gap 17: Horsey Mill 22: North Denes 20: Winterton 28: Brancaster 31: Cley Eye (S) 38: Cley Eye (W) 33: Holkham (S) 29: Holkham (W) 34: Morston (S) 30: Morston (W) 40: Stiffkey (S) 39: Stiffkey (W) 35: Wells 23: Roydon Common 25: Buxton Heath 24: Holt Lowes 27: Holme 32: Holme (W) 37: Snettisham (S) 26: Snettisham (W)

Number of people/dogs 2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0

Brecks Broads

Total adults E. Coast

Total minors N. Coast

Total dogs Valley Fens Wash

• Highest numbers were recorded at Holkham and Horsey Gap -> c.1,900 people recorded in survey ~ 120 people per hour.

• Lowest: total of 22 people at Breydon Water winter survey. ~ 1.4 people per hour.

• Identify sites with most and least current pressures purely in terms of footfall.

-> High visitors = pressure? High profile sites can be well managed to lessen impact.

Similarity index

• Using only the tally data group sizes

• Clustering

• ~1,300 interviews conducted.

• Separate those on holiday and those from home – important for local housing increases.

• Holiday-makers accounted for nearly half of interviewees at the North Coast and Broads.

Why? • Some activities have greater impacts at certain sites -> implications for management

Visit duration: • The Broads c. 33% of interviewees visiting for more than 4 hours in the Broads.

• At Roydon c. 33% of interviewees visiting for less than 30 minutes.

• Visiting duration less, but may or may not result in greater impact.

• Will also depend on where is the impact….

• Home postcodes of interviewees.

• Interviewees on holiday only.

• Only half of interviewees lived in Norfolk.

Visitors from home only.

• Average linear distance was 24km.

• Median linear distance was 11 km (50% live within this radius).

• Using visitor data to consider future visitor pressures.

• Currently, 400 k residential properties in Norfolk.

• Future plan period, show potential of 66 k new dwellings -> 16% increase.

• We plot both to examine increases around each site.

Nu

50000

0

Roydon Common & Dersingham Bog

Number of houses

0

100000 100000

2 6 10 14 East 18 C2

Breckland The Wash

North Norfolk Coast

Roydon Common & Dersingh

50000 50000

2 6 10 14 18 22 26 30 340 38

umber of houses

The Broads

2 6 10 14 18 22 26 30 34 38

2 0 The Wash 100000 bufferkm 2 6 10North 14 18 22 26 30 34 38 Norfolk Coast 100000 50000 New Housing, Norfolk only P otential C urrent housing, outside Norfolk C urrent 50000housing, in Norfolk

0 bufferkm 2

6 10 14 18 22 26 30 34 38

6 10 14 18 22 26 30

Roydon Common &

P ote C urr C urr

100000

Breckland

East Coast

Norfolk Valley Fens

North Norfolk Coast

Roydon Common & Dersingham Bog

The Broads

2 6 10 14 18 22 26 30 34 38

2 6 10 14 18 22 26 30 34 38

50000

Number of houses

0 100000

50000

0 100000

The Wash

50000

0 bufferkm 2 6 10 14 18 22 26 30 34 38

P otential New Housing, Norfolk only C urrent housing, outside Norfolk C urrent housing, in Norfolk

• However, the ‘catchment’ or ‘draw’ of sites can be different.

• Visitor curves –> likelihood of visiting decreasing with increase distance away from site.

• Include new housing in the curves.

• Which developments are likely to result in highest increases in visitors.

• ‘Future interviewees’ – 233, an increase of just under 14% -> overall housing increase 16%.

• Future interviewees by authority.

Future Interviewees (Norfolk residents)

70

Planning authority Breckland Broadland King's Lynn and West Norfolk North Norfolk Norwich South Norfolk The Broads NP Great Yarmouth

60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Site

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Map shows mean ranks based on data relating to houses per ha SPA and house density; different buffers out to 5km High ranking sites tend to be coastal/estuaries and heaths

Houses within 5km

SPA Wealden Heaths Phase II New Forest East Devon Heaths Thames Basin Heaths Dorset Heathlands Ashdown Forest Sandlings Breckland

% change 2003-2015 8 10 10 10 10 12 13 17

• Catchments specific to sites’ • Various factors such as attractiveness, facilities etc will influence how far people will travel

• • •

What level of housing leads to impact?

What evidence?

Solutions?

• Around 80,000 new dwellings current plan period • 11 local authorities • 3 SPAs (all coastal)

● Evidence base for HRA Initial review/scoping ● Visitor surveys ● Bird disturbance work ● Visitor & bird modelling work (2010-2014):

Behavioural - understand how individual animals respond to changes in the environment - Foraging behaviour – food competition - Response to disturbance – energetic costs, lost feeding time etc - Decision rules – trading-off costs and benefits

What are the population consequences - Site Management/Strategic Planning Issues

?

Screen shot of the Southampton Water model showing an example low tide distribution of the birds.

0.6 Effect of new housing around the Solent: Proportion Surviving 0.5 DN

RP

RK

1.0

(b) Body mass 0.9

Target mass

800

Body mass (g)

Proportion surviving

(a) Survival

0.8

0.7 0.6 0.5

No disturbance Current housing 600

Future housing

400

200 DN

RP

RK

(b) Body mass

GV

BW

OC

CU

0 DN

RP

RK

200

Effect of new housing around the 0Solent: Proportion of time feeding DN RP RK GV BW OC CU

Proportion of time

0.6

(c) Proportion of time feeding No disturbance

Current housing

Future housing

0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 DN

RP

RK

GV

BW

OC

CU

Models provide powerful insight but..

Models only possible: ● For small part of Solent ● For a small selection of species Difficult assumptions: ● Extent to which birds can move freely within the site

● Intake rate when feeding at night ● Extent to which birds knowledge is perfect – how well can they really select the best places to be

• Developer contributions of £272 per dwelling, collected within 5.6km radius (zone identified from postcode data).

• Funding in a central pot.

• Used to fund a delivery officer, warden team, dog walking project, GI, monitoring programme.

Dorset: Strategic Mitigation & Examples of Projects • • • • • • • • •

Dorset Dogs Mobile Warden Team Fire hydrants on Canford Heath Improved access on non-heath sites – scrub clearance, new trails etc.

BMX track and jumps away from the heath Work to address erosion Contribution to multi-use play area near urban heath Dog project ‘Dorset Dogs’ GI – ‘SANGs’

Thames Basin Heaths & SANGS • 41 SANGs (excluding ones linked to specific large developments) • Variation in size, character, habitat • The total area of SANGs is 942ha; max=86ha.

• Area of SANGs equivalent to 11% area of SPA

Nightjar trends No significant increase or decrease in nightjar numbers

Liley, D. & Fearnley, H. (2014) Trends in Nightjar, Woodlark and Dartford Warbler on the Dorset Heaths 1991-2013. Footprint Ecology / Birds of Poole Harbour.

Nightjar numbers have increased on Purbeck sites while numbers on other sites have shown little change

• Norfolk wide surveys are unique in scale and number of European sites covered simultaneously.

• Allow direct comparison between sites and indication of cumulative impacts of growth.

• Visitor data provides the key evidence for HRAs and mitigation.

• Clear links for Norfolk Valley Fens, Roydon, Brecks with recreation and local housing.

Marked changes predicted particularly for the Brecks. Other areas have draw over wide area. Changes in access predicted across all sites (14%).

• Survey provides baseline for mitigation to be established and tailored to relevant sites.