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National, State & Local Building Industry News 2019: Issue 2
Builder show draws largest Crowd in 10 years EPAB members, leadership experience industry’s latest and greatest IBS More than 67,000 home building professionals from around the world filled the exhibit halls of the Las Vegas Convention Center as NAHB hosted the 75th anniversary of the International Builders’ Show (IBS) Feb. 19-21. IBS and the Kitchen & Bath Industry Show (KBIS) once again combined for the annual Design & Construction Week® (DCW), which drew a total of more than 100,000 attendees. “As the International Builders’ Show celebrates 75 years, it remains the premier event for the housing industry,” said Geoff Cassidy, NAHB senior vice president of exhibitions and meetings. “With the largest attendance in 10 years, we’re proving once again that IBS is the only place to experience such a diverse collection of innovative products, education sessions and networking opportunities all in one place.” Exhibit space for IBS also expanded from last year’s 583,000 square feet to more than 608,000 square feet, where nearly 1,500 exhibitors displayed the latest in building products and technology. In all, DCW featured more than 2,000 exhibitors occupying more than one million square feet of indoor and outdoor spaces. Many of the exhibitors noted the increased foot traffic this year. The experience during the three days of the show has been great. It’s been very
International Builder Show (IBS) shines in frigid weather
By Ray Adauto Several years ago, the NAHB board of directors scheduled the IBS for Chicago. The talk about going to Chicago in winter was met with a hailstorm of concerns and outright vetoes. Who wants to go to a cold wintery place from sunny anywhere else? Apparently not enough vendors so the contracts were cancelled, and Las Vegas and Orlando became the official IBS cities. The two cities have hosted IBS in rainy weather, wind storms, lightning and Mother natures other furies, but no one had counted on a snow storm in Vegas. Ok, so for those folks in the Midwest, or eastern
busy and a lot of fun interacting with so many builders, contractors and other vendors,” said Blake R. Edwards, a senior product marketing manager for Lennox. “We’re getting a lot of good insights from those who came here, and we’re also giving them a lot of valuable feedback in return.” In addition to meeting suppliers and seeing product demos throughout the three-day show, attendees networked with peers and attended any of more than 130 education sessions led by experts on a wide range of industry topics. “Everywhere you go at IBS, there’s something to see, something to learn,” said Brandon Hines, owner of Hines Homes in Maumelle, Ark. “The show floor was very impressive, and honestly, a little overwhelming at first because there’s just so many interesting products to learn about and people to meet. But for me, the most beneficial part [of IBS] has been the education sessions. We’re focused on growing and improving our business, and each session we attended provided us specific ideas on how we can achieve that.” Next year, IBS and Design & Construction Week will return to Las Vegas, Jan. 21-23, 2020.
coast this snow storm was nothing but for Las Vegas it was, like El Paso, a near show stopper. The 2019 IBS was once again mega sized and bold. Thousands of displays of all sizes filled every inch of the Las Vegas Convention Center and spilled onto the Westgate Hotel next door. NAHB had to rent space at the Westgate in order to hold meetings as well as the opening ceremonies. It was an easy walk from the convention floor to the Westgate where competitions by student chapters of the NAHB worked to win design challenges. It was also the home for the Texas Association of Builders Area caucus, the official meeting for TAB at IBS.
The products and services on display the the International Builders Show were beyond ‘cool’ this year as snow and inclimate weather challenged attendees. See more photos page 8 The show was billed as the 75th annual meeting of the Board of Directors and it was all business the first several days of the conference. Randy Noel, Chairman of the Board of NAHB met the Texas delegation and welcomed us. He reminded us of the need to be prepared for growth while always keeping an eye out for troubled waters. “I think that our home builders and other members are doing very well today, but we also know that we have to stay on top of other things in order to be secure in our future,” Noel told the Outlook. “It’s important that we share our world with the younger generation and prepare them for the opportunities our industry offers,” he said. What Mr. Noel,
who is from New Orleans, said we must look to train new skill sets, to encourage home ownership, and to elect people who believe in what we do. “I think we have to continue to push our educators to get students into the trades, into the home building business, and off to a great career,” said Immediate Past Chairman Granger MacDonald of Texas. There were 130 sessions available to members to attend prior to and during IBS. Preparations are in full swing for the 2020 show scheduled January 21-23, 2020 in Las Vegas.
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Builders Outlook
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2019 Issue 2
President’s Message
2019 Issue 2
Sergio Cuartas
President El Paso Association of Builders
As the Black Eyed Peas say, “Let’s Get it Started in Here”! 2019 is moving quickly, and in order to make our association thrive moving forward, we need to start taking bold action now. First, I would like to acknowledge those who have been taking action: Thanks a lot to Randall Smith for his education session on the impact of changes in the tax law held at our EPAB on Thursday January 24th from 3 to 5 pm. We all received love, power or money for participating. More education and networking sessions are to come. Stay tuned! Thanks also to Scott and Structure Home Warranty for not only sponsoring our first Real Texas Builders Awards, but additionally pledging to sponsor our event year after year for the foreseeable future. Thanks to all who entered a category. The event was worthy for us being the first of this nature and I sincerely hope next year we will have more participation. Kudos to Don Rassette and Edmundo Dena for pushing this idea forward and to Ray and Margaret for making it happen. Many others are working behind the scenes to make our EPAB better. Thanks to them as well. We look forward to future events and initiatives from the following committees which have formed. The committee chairs are named below along with their email addresses. Thanks to all the committee chairs for their service to our association. I highly encourage all our members to participate in the committees with ideas, time or resources. Please contact the chairs directly with any questions or suggestions. Community Outreach: Angelique Roman aroman@sierratitle.com. Associates Council: Luis Rosas luis.rosas@hubinternational.com. Education: Patrick Tuttle patrick@patricktuttle.com. Market Intelligence: Trevor Turner tturner@rassettehomes.inc. Membership: Jaime Gonzalez Jaime@mybluesagehome.com. Industry Promotion: Ted Escobedo ted@snappypublishing.com. Government affairs / Land Council Sal Masoud DRE@delrioengineering.net. Golf Tournaments: Sam Shallenberger spshallenberger@morsco.com. Finance Committee: Kathy Carrillo kcarrillo@westernheritagebank.com. Young Designers Scholarship: John Chaney: jchaney@hercmail.com. In addition to the above teams, we have created a Strategic Long-Range Planning Committee composed in first instance by the Executive Board including Edgar Garcia, Sal Masoud and myself. We will be recruiting more committee members to help us think about the long-term sustainability of our home builders’ association, revising our mission, our three-year vision and our values in the months to come. A key question we will be asking is: how can we serve, engage and retain our members so that we can grow our membership and
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Builders Outlook
‘Let’s Get it Started in Here!’ strengthen our voice at the local level? For now, when people ask: Why should I be a member? We say: Education, Networking, Benefits including contracts, manuals and Rebates, information and news letters and most importantly to support our lobbying efforts at the national, state and local levels. EPAB will continue working towards our goals of strengthening our relationships with city officials in the metropolitan area as well as expressing our positions to the Legislature in regards to lowering our cost of doing business and limiting regulatory burdens. We are also actively working with other local nonprofit organizations related to our industry, asking: how we can use the strength of our numbers to help our businesses? Last month We released the results of our EPAB Business Confidence Survey. 21 percent of our members responded (statistically significant and respectable participation for being the first time we do something like this). At least two thirds of those who responded believe that business conditions and sales will be positive during
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the next 6 months. About the same number of us are neutral in regards to hiring fulltime employees or capital spending. Negative expectations were very minimal at less than 5%. Originally, our intent was to release these results monthly to our members only. However, announcing the results to the media will generate attention for our association and strengthen our ability to disseminate our message in the community, so I decided to do so in the form of a press release. The outcome of our survey confirms other local positive economic indicators such as the 4% unemployment, improved retail sales and increased employment opportunities. Gasoline prices and interest rates remain low, while our market maintains 4 months of inventory of homes, a relatively low number. The median price of homes continues to increase, and is currently at approx. $158,000. (The above numbers are for new homes and re-sales). The local economic data cited comes from the Borderplex Business Barometer, Jan 2019, The University of Texas at El Paso. We still have to be cautious and watch
closely how macro trends, increasing costs and geopolitical uncertainty may have an impact on our local market. This means that more than ever we need to be united as an association and prepared to weather any storm. So, what can you do this year to help the EPAB thrive? Attend the meetings, participate in EPAB events, help a member, join a committee, advertise in our publications, sponsor events, answer our surveys, and get to know or do business with other members. You get out of your membership what you put into your membership. An important upcoming event is Rally Day on March 20th at the State Capitol building in Austin. A number of the leadership will be attending – please consider joining us! As always, you may send your feedback, comments or suggestions to Ray or email them directly to me at scuartasbichomes@gmail.com. Thank you for your membership and Have a great month ahead!
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Executive’s Message
Builders Outlook
2019 Issue 2
Ray Adauto, Executive Vice President EPAB
An unexpected side-effect for builders
One never realizes what can affect our businesses or industry either positively or in the negative. At our meetings at the International Builders Show we heard some disturbing statistics that is impacting builders and associates in a dramatic costly way. No, it’s not lumber, oil, or steel. It’s not labor shortages or robotics. It’s something that has become one of the country’s biggest health problems, opioids. Those drugs that doctors prescribe for pain are killing our people and hurting the industry. Here’s some facts to ponder: Every hour eight people overdose on opioids. Of those eight at least three who overdose work in the construction industry. And two of those are from home building. The ‘why’ is just as telling. In home building traditionally construction workers are most male and younger. Adults 18-25 are the most likely to abuse opioids than any other age group. Statistically about 15% of construction workers have used drugs for non-medical reasons.
NAHB has compiled the costs and they are staggering to the home building industry. The construction sector spends $1billion a WEEK on workers compensation. Opioids promised rapid pain relief to allow a quicker return to work. Each construction worker with an untreated substance abuse disorder costs an employer $6800 per year in excess costs including absenteeism and turnover costs. An employee with a substance abuse issue can cost as much as $60,000 per year. But when that employee is in recovery the industry saves nearly $2400 per year. Looking at causes is easy. Workers don’t have health insurance, they get hurt, they seek quick relief so they can get back on the job, and they tend to become abusers. Statistically each one of us is paying somewhere down the line. Expect to hear a lot more on this issue. At the EPAB we will make you aware of education opportunities. Opioid abuse must be curbed.
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National Builder News
2019 Issue 2
NAHB Announces Best of IBS Product Winners at 2019 International Builders’ Show
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) named the winning products in its seventh annual Best of IBS Awards during the NAHB International Builders’ Show® (IBS) in Las Vegas. The awards were presented during a ceremony on the final day of the show. This year’s Best of IBS Awards received more than 300 entries. Decided by a panel of 31 independent judges made up of attending reporters and building professionals, the awards were given in nine categories, plus an overall Best in Show award. Awards were given to exhibitors with a product or line that shows the best combination of design, functionality and innovation, as well as its usefulness to consumers and/or home builders. The winners were: Best in Show Winner: Easy Connect Joining System by Andersen Windows, Inc. Best Kitchen Product: Cafe 4-in-1 Oven with Advantium Technology by GE Appliances Best Bath Product: Redi Your Way by Tile Redi USA, LLC Best Energy Efficient Product: POWERHOUSE™ 3.0 Solar Shingle by RGS Energy Best Green Building Product: Heatlok HFO by Demilec Spray Foam Insulation Best Home Technology Product: Leviton Load Center Wi-Fi enabled Circuit Breaker by Leviton Manufacturing Company Best Indoor Living Product: Heat & Glo Foundation Series Luxury Gas Fireplace by Heatilator, Heat & Glo and Majestic (Hearth & Home Technologies) Best Outdoor Living Product: CAMO DRIVE by CAMO Fasteners and The Soho by Hampstead Best Window and Door Product: Easy Connect Joining System by Andersen Windows, Inc. Most Innovative Building Material Product: NTI GF200 Combi-Furnace by NTI Inc. “Judges evaluated an impressive array of more than 300 product entries in nine categories up for consideration for this year’s Best of IBS Awards,” said Buddy Hughes, NAHB Conventions and Meetings Committee Chairman. “The competition was fierce, but these winners truly represent the best of the best in terms of innovation, design and functionality of the products going into today’s homes.” Awards were given to exhibitors with a product or line that shows the best combination of design, functionality and innovation, as well as its usefulness to consumers and/or home builders. For more information on the Best of IBS Awards, visit buildersshow.com/bestofibs.
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Mortgage & Banking
By Clare Trapasso | Feb 21, 2019 REALTOR.com
The Great Recession has receded in the rearview mirror, and pretty much every American would like to keep it that way, thank you very much. But we're still all too aware that the whole financial disaster was precipitated by a deluge of bad mortgages. Sure, we've had nearly a decade of booming home sales and prices. But now that they're slowing their roll, the whispers are starting to mount: Is another recession around the corner? About 39% of Americans think the economy is slowing down, while 17% think we're already in a recession or depression, according to a recent Gallup poll. Yes, we might see a recession soon, economists say—but there's no need to panic. That's because the financial factors that helped cause last decade's crash don't exist this time around. "We're just scared because of what happened last time. And that's not what's going to happen [again]," says Lisa Sturtevant, a housing consultant and chief economist at Virginia Realtors, the state's real estate association. If there is another recession, she says, "most people are not going to lose their house. Most people are not going to lose their jobs.â€? If a downturn does hit, probably toward the end of this year or the beginning of next year, most economists believe it will be brief and not nearly as painful as the last one. They anticipate that unemployment, currently at an extremely low 4%, will tick up slightly and there will be fewer new jobs created. But they don't envision widespread layoffs resulting in scores of foreclosures and plunging home prices, as we saw in 2008–09. “We’re at a record-low level of unemployment. The economy can’t stay here," says Chief Economist Danielle Hale of realtor.comÂŽ. She forecasts a recession beginning within the next two years. "This one will be mild." Why it looks like we're due for a recession Although a recession can be precipitated by a housing bust, trade war, or global event, this time the U.S. economy may simply become a victim of its own success. With national unemployment so low, employers have to compete hard for talent by offering higher wages. Those increased costs are often passed onto consumers. This in turn causes inflation as goods and services become more expensive. If inflation rises much higher than wages, then the country has a problem. Enter the U.S. Federal Reserve. It battles inflation by notching up interest rates. The downside is that makes it more expensive for businesses to borrow money to expand or bring on more workers. And that can effectively slow down the economy. It's like someone blowing too much air into a balloon—eventually a little needs to be let out or it'll pop. Similarly, the Fed needs to siphon off a little of the economy's helium. It hiked rates four times last year, when the economy was hurtling along, but this year it may do it only once, if at all. Actually, economic cycles in which the economy is growing and more jobs are being created historically don't last more than a few years. The longest stretched from 1991 to 2001. This summer will mark the longest economic expansion in U.S. history from the trough of the crisis in June 2009. So the good times eventually must come to an end. This slowdown, coming on the heels of a wild run-up in home prices, may feel like dĂŠjĂ vu. But the main culprit behind the previous housing market bust was the torrent of subprime mortgages doled out to underqualified and often uninformed buyers. When those owners defaulted, it created a domino effect, ultimately affecting all corners of the nation's economy.
Recession Watch: Will Another Downturn Rock the Housing Market? Builders Outlook
After that, lending laws were considerably tightened across the board. Borrowers today must be in much better financial shape in order to snag a mortgage. "Underwriting is a lot tighter, and the [loans] are a lot less risky," says Joel Kan, who oversees economic and industry forecasting at the Mortgage Bankers Association. "Households are in a better position to absorb the shock than they were back then." Will a recession lower home prices? Buyers on a budget shouldn't pin their hopes on a recession to create a vast clearance sale of deeply discounted properties. Prices aren't expected to plummet, although they may dip in more expensive markets. Overall, price appreciation will likely just continue to slow. But if the Fed lowers interest rates again to counteract a poor economy, mortgage rates will likely go down, too. That will also make it cheaper to buy a house. "If there is a recession, the people with stable jobs will see it [as] a second-chance opportunity to buy a home," says Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of RealtorsŽ. Yun doesn't anticipate a recession this year, or next. "Prices may [or may not] come down. But certainly buyers will be in a better negotiating position." And even in a shakier economy, overall demand for housing, which keeps prices up, isn't going to evaporate. The huge millennial population is getting older, settling down, and having children—and searching for homes of their own. Those life factors are not likely to change, and they create a massive demand for housing. A decade ago, it was mostly Gen Xers at that stage, a smaller generation with less impact. The places that are most likely to see prices sink are more expensive markets that have experienced years of steep price hikes. For example, Silicon Valley's San Jose, CA, could see corrections, says Hale. Markets with more housing than buyers, such as Miami, where new developments have been going up at a breakneck pace, may also soften, says Norm Miller, a real estate finance professor at University of San Diego. The luxury market, which is the priciest 5% of homes in any area, will also probably be affected. "There are just more expensive homes [than affordable ones] for sale, and so the luxury market is likely to be more vulnerable to price corrections in the event of a recession," says Hale. A recession could worsen the housing shortage One of the signatures of the past recession was the overabundance of newly built homes. When the economy collapsed and the buyers disappeared, builders across the nation were forced out of business basically overnight. Abandoned construction sites were littered across the country. The industry still hasn't caught up with the renewed demand, and another recession could worsen the situation. Only about 875,00 single-family homes were built last year, according to the National Association of Home Builders. But the nation needed about 1.1 million to ameliorate the shortage. If another downturn hits, builders will likely construct even fewer homes, says Rob Dietz, chief economist of the NAHB. That means when the country recovers, we could experience even greater housing shortages than we've seen over the past few years. The pace of single-family home construction growth is already slowing down, from 9% in 2017 to about 3% in 2018. Dietz predicts it will be less than 2% in 2019. Building is expected to remain strong in places with strong population growth, such as the Southeast, Texas, and the mountain states of
Montana, Idaho, Colorado, and Utah. Folks need places to live, after all. But the current higher mortgage rates make it harder for folks to buy homes. Meanwhile, inflation results in higher land, materials, and construction labor costs. That typically translates into fewer new homes going up. “For builders, it means that demands will fall back in some markets and they will pull back," says Dietz. Renters won't be spared by a recession Cash-strapped tenants hoping for a rent break likely won't get lucky even if the economy does start to slump. Rent price growth is likely to slow or even stall as fewer folks are going to be dropping big bucks on housing, says Greg Willett, chief economist at RealPage, a property management technology and analytics company focused primarily on rentals. But it's not likely to fall.
2019 Issue2
The exception is the luxury market, where landlords will have the most trouble finding tenants. "Luxury will feel the pain first,� says Willett. There could be some longer-term consequences as well as fewer rental developments are typically built when the economy sputters, so when things are a bit rosier, there may be fewer units available to fill demand. Depending on how long the recession lasts, some condo buildings that can't find buyers may eventually go rental. That's most likely in places with an oversupply of housing, such as Miami, Miller says. "[The last] financial crisis was unique with an unprecedented number of foreclosures, home price declines, and a stunning drop in homebuilding," says Dietz. “The question is whether we’re going to experience a soft landing, a bumpy landing, or a crash landing."
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2019 Issue 2
Economic Forescast
Elliot Eisenberg Economic & Policy Blog
While the most recent jobs report showed the unemployment rate at 4.0% — the lowest rate in almost 50 years — it also showed annual wage gains running at just 3.2%. While that is the best rate of growth in over a decade, late in the last business cycle, wage gains were over 4%, and at the height of the dot.com bubble, wage gains were over 5% a year. Shouldn’t the current tight job market result in faster wage growth as employers compete for increasingly scarce workers? The answer is “not really,” and it’s for several reasons. The single most important reason for slow wage growth is weak labor productivity growth, or the increase in output per worker per hour. As firms pay workers more, they try to keep their profit margins up by squeezing out inefficiencies, and thus pay for the higher wages out of increased worker productivity. Back in the 1990s, labor productivity growth averaged about
Builders Outlook
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Why Is Wage Growth So Lousy? 3%/year. In the run-up to the housing bust, it was well over 2%. By contrast, today’s productivity growth is about 1%! As a result, employers are not so eager to raise wages as they tend to reduce profits. Another major reason is demographics. Twenty years ago, the Baby Boomers were all in their prime working years. Today, close to 11,000/day retire and are being replaced by Millennials. The problem is that since Millennials are just starting their careers, they earn considerably less than the retiring Boomers. More importantly, the number of Millennials entering the labor force numbers about 14,000/day, exceeding by about 3,000/day, or 90,000/month, the number of retiring Boomers. While older generations have always retired as younger generations have entered the labor force, never have the two groups been of almost equal size. After accounting for this, wage growth is
currently closer to 4%. The final significant reason for slow wage growth is a lack of inflation. In the late 1990s, inflation, as measured by the CPI, was 3.5%/year, and was roughly 4%/year during the housing boom. Since 2010, however, inflation has been remarkably tame, and has hovered right around 2%. As a result, employers have not had to increase pay that much to keep up with inflation. If, for example, employers aim to increase real pay by 1%/year during the housing boom, that would have meant pay raises of 5%; today, 3% will do. There are, of course, many other reasons why wage growth is weak. They include a decline in the strength of unions, the increased prevalence of non-compete clauses in employment contracts, and global supply chains, all of which reduce the bargaining power of workers. There has also been a steep decline in the number of new
firms, in part due to the rise of superfirms like Google, Amazon and Facebook, which generally buy out any potential competitors, also reducing employer options. Last, but certainly not least, comes the dramatic rise in state licensing requirements which make it much more difficult for employees to work in other states, even if good jobs in the same field are available. While wage growth is not as strong today as it has been in prior recoveries, there are many reasons why. Hopefully, labor productivity will improve going forward, as that is something that employers and employees both benefit from. In addition, it would be great to see states reduce or eliminate licensing requirements where possible. And, where that is not possible, encouraging reciprocity across state lines would be a great improvement.
BUILDERS OUTLOOK • EPAB ON THE SCENE The future of NAHB outlined at IBS (Continued from front page)
The structure of the National Association of Home Builders governance structure is changing. After years of reviews and engaged discussion the NAHB Board of Directors voted to streamline the governance structure. The vote was taken in 2018 and will be implemented for the 2020 leadership year. Exactly what is changing? According to NAHB there are several changes coming. First NAHB will convert the current board into a Leadership Council, which will direct the Association on industry issues and elect the associations leadership. Secondly there will be a new streamlined corporate Board who will be charge with the administrative operation of NAHB. Third, adopt a process by which committees and their priorities can be easily created or modified to address new, emerging issues. Fourth, document and communicate the various NAHB leadership roles, making certain that leaders know the critical role they play in the success of the NAHB. There will be no change with day to day management with oversight from the Senior Officer Team.
The budget is the responsibility of the corporate board that will consist of the senior officer team, fifteen national area chairmen, special state directors, two associate leadership reps, fiftyone state reps, and past chairs serving as ex-officio status. Today’s NAHB is a bloated bureaucracy with over 1700 Board Members and over 135 executive board. In addition, there’s committees and councils as well as state and local members. The future NAHB will have a Corporate board of around 75 and a Leadership Council, the 1700 plus currently board members. Randy Noel, Chairman 2019, said this move will make governance much more flexible. “It’s like the Navy, when you have an aircraft carrier it’s a little harder to turn than a landing craft, so we need to make sure that when issues come up, we can get voting delegates quickly or maybe even utilizing technology,” Noel said. State and local associations will be looking at this model and seeing if it can be used by them as well. -Ray Adauto, EPAB
2019 Issue 2
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#Real Texas builders
Builders Outlook
2019 Issue 2
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www.elpasobuilders.com
The El Paso Association of Builders encourages you to work with our members. Builder members as of January 30, 2019
Althon Investments, LLC Jose Luis Martin Bain Construction Scott Bain Bella Vista Custom Homes, Inc. Edgar Garcia BIC Homes, LLC Sergio Cuartas Blue Sage Homes, LLC Jamie E. Gonzalez Blue Star Construction Carlos Villasana Bowling Construction Randy Bowling Carefree Homes Richard Aguilar Casas De Leon, LLC Nick Bombach Cisco Homes LLC Francisco Arroyos III Classic American Homes Priscilla Hernandez Crown Heritage Homes Lydia Mlouhi Cullers & Caldwell Builders John Cullers Cullers Homes Jason R. Cullers D B Innovations, LLC Dan Berry Dawco Home Builders Walter O. Lujan Deal-2-Deal Homes Delton Deal Del Rio Engineering, Inc. Sal Masoud Diamond Homes, LLC Valerie Bacquera E. Valencia Land Development LLC Eddie Valencia Eclat Homes & Design Veronica Guerra Edward's Homes, Inc. Eduardo Fernandez EPT Bella Custom Dream Homes, LLC Leti & Javier Navarrete EPT Land Communities David Bogas Everest Homes Edmundo Dena, Jr. Fortune Custom Homes Javier Andrade Gaddy Construction Charles Gaddy GMF Custom Homes, LP Frank Torres Guel Construction Rudy Guel Hakes Brothers LLC Chris Hakes Hanson Asset Management, LP Russell Hanson Homes by Design Leslie Driggers Hoard Hunt Communities, LLC Kathy Parry ICON Custom Home Builder, LLC Carlos Garcia Industrial Realty Group Incorporated Brent D. Harris JER Custom Homes, LLC Jorge E. Rodriguez Kayton Lee Residential, Inc. Brianna Barnes Lloyd Hamilton Construction Lloyd Hamilton, III LMJ Construction Co., LLC Mike Lopez Loyalty Homes Gustavo Loy M A Builders & Design, LLC Mustafa Ali Maravilla Homes Victor Robles Medlock Commercial Contractors, LLC Steve Medlock Metro Homes Judith Arrunada Millennium Homes Dan Ruth
Pacifica Homes, Inc. Juan Jose Vasquez Padilla Homes Misael Navarrete Palo Verde Homes Edgar Montiel Pointe Homes Carlos Villalobos R.C. Baeza & Associates Robert C. Baeza R.E. Welch Contractor Gordon Welch Rassette Homes, Inc. Donald Rassette Rio USA Freddy Klayel Rosewood Design & Build Brianna Barnes Santana Custom Homes Fernando Santana Southwest Land Development Serv. Doug Schwartz Spanish Oaks Custom Homes Juan R. Saenz The Heritage Group David Bingham Trejo Construction Co. Juan Trejo Tropicana Building Corp. Bobby Bowling IV Tropicana Development Greg Bowling Tropicana Homes Randy Bowling Tropicana Properties Demetrio Jimenez Uptown Homes, Inc. Francisco Baquera Valance Construction, LLC Oswaldo Prieto Villagi Homes, LLC Kristi Eddings Vista Del Sol Architectural Design Luis J. Lopez Will Harvey Development Will S. Harvey Winton/Flair / Accent Homes Herschel Stringfield ZIA Homes of El Paso LLC Preston Brown Associate members as of January 30,2019
150 Sunset Danny Heredia 2-10 Home Buyers Warranty James Hebert 4 Tech A/C Service Enrique Hernandez 84 Lumber Ernie Chavez 915 Siteworks, LLC Hugo Jasso A Plus Remodeling & Repairs Martin Arroyos ABC Supply Co., Inc. Larry Eck A C Refrigeration, LLC Angel Cabrera Acme Brick Company Brent Smith Adams Moulding & Lumber Tom Swahlen Agustin Favela Concrete Agustin Favela Alden R & R Services, LLC Alejandro Dena Allbrite Electrical Carlos Nunez Alpha Asphalt Gabriel Chavez Alvarado Plastering & Stucco, LLC Jorge Enrique Alvarado Amelia's Janitorial Services Amelia Gomez Area Iron & Steel Works, Inc. Fred L. Edmonston Jr. Atrium Homes Ricardo Bocardo Jr.
Bank of Texas Ray Owen Baron Supply David Trammell Barragan & Associates Benito Barragan Barraza Drywall Corp. Ignacio Barraza Barrett Airworks Alexandro Castro Bassett Woodworks Danny Murillo Beasley, Mitchell & Co., LLP Brad Beasley Bella Vista Realty Grisel Ortega Belmont's Air Conditioning, Inc. Rafael Belmonte Big A Construction Thelma Vasquez BMC Select David Quintana Boise Cascade Mike Flores Border Construction Specialties Ricardo Yvellez Border Solar Javier Ruiz Bordertown Carpets Brian M. Abraham Builders Source Appliance Gallery Sandra Lucero Bukaty Financial Companies Group Ruth Rivera C. D. Lee/Britton Insurance & Bonding Anthony Landavazo CMF Carlos Munoz Cabinet Masters Mike Robles Cadence Lending Group Carolyn De Leon Carpet Warehouse Erez Belkin Castillo Electric Jose Del Val CEA Engineering Group Jorge L. Azcarate Central Texas Metal Roofing Supply Co.,Inc. Ben Garza, III Centricity Brent R. Morgan Century 21 The Edge Scott Kesner City Bank Texas Bob Kotarski City Lights Thomas Brown Citizens Loan Center Jim Easley Cognent, Inc. Martin Paredes Commercial Insurance Brokers, Inc. Ken Foster Conde, Inc. Conrad Conde Copenhagen Imports Flemming Carlsen CQC Testing and Engineering, LLC Jaime Rojas David Hernandez Cabinets David Hernandez David J. Ellis Fee Office for Sierra Title David J. Ellis De La Torre Iron Works Alfredo de la Torre Del Sol Title Company Hector Phillips Delek US dba 7 Eleven Sonja Scanlan Demcon Disposal Management, LLC Maria Elena (Nena) Gomez Desert Quest Plumbing Hector Gonzalez Designer's Mart Valerie Edmiston Diaz Services, Inc. Emmanuel Diaz Dominguez Insurance Agency Victoria Dominguez Garage Doors and More Miguel Moran
Dorney Security John Dorney Dunn-Edwards Paints Nathan Gordon DWS Building Supply Sabrina Voorhies EDLR Plastering Eduardo De La Rosa E.F. Building Materials, Inc Efren Fraire ERA Sellers & Buyers Karla Rayos ESS Environmental and Safety Solutions Jose L. Garcia Ramirez Eagle Custom Cabinets Juan Benabidez Eagle Roofing Products Scott Aguilar Edgar's Flooring Edgar Enriquez Edmund Esper Edmund Esper El Paso Audio Video by Design Joe Gutierrez El Paso Building Materials Ken Wade El Paso Disposal Irma Parsons El Paso Mortgage Bankers Association Gilbert Pedregon El Paso Times Sal Hernandez, Justin Riley El Paso Truss Luis Mendiola El Paso Water Softeners Rebecca Estrada El Paso Winnelson Rene Goldfien Electrolux NA Adger Colley Elizardo Garcia Electric Elizardo Garcia EZE-R-DESIGNS Leticia Mata Farmers Ins. Mercedes Ruiz Agency Mercedes Ruiz Felipe Rocha Construction Felipe Rocha Ferguson Enterprises Inc. Albert Holguin First American Bank Louis Sauceda First Light Federal Credit Union Lorenzo Revelez First National 1870 Ernesto Avila Firth, Johnston, Bunn & Kerr Jay Kerr Forge Factory Strength & Conditioning Edmundo Portillo Foxworth Galbraith Lumber Dan Villarreal Franklin Building Materials Ricardo Aguilar /Cristina Sheldon Franklin Door and Trim Jesse C. Brown G2 Ram Electric Luis Cano GCC Sun City Materials, LLC Antonio "Tony" Chavez GE Appliances Christine R. Villanueva G & G Enterprises Gen. Contractor Juan F. Garcia GECU- Greater El Paso Credit Union Danny Galindo GEPAR-Greater El Paso Assoc. of Realtors Jason Sanchez Goodman Mfg. Jorge Guajardo Go Pro Refrigeration Humberto Diaz Great American Insurance Group Julie Tomlinson Greater El Paso Chamber of Commerce David Michael Jerome H P Roofing & Construction Heriberto Prieto Harris Real Estate Group Lane Harris Haskins Electric Charles B. Haskins, Jr.
2019 Issue 2
Hector De La Canal Real Estate Group Hector De. La Canal Hector Phillips fee Office for Sierra Title Hector Phillips Hercules Industries John Chaney Hernandez Roofing Concepcion Hernandez Home of Texas Amanda Eason Homes of El Paso Riley Stephens Home Pros Real Estate Group Penny Moore Home Sphere, LLC Chris Hoag HUB International Luis Rosas Imperial Construction Alexandro Garcia IES Residential Joshua Garnica Interceramic Tile & Stone Gallery David Holguin The Iron Snail Inc. David Zuniga J. B. Laminates Gina Rodriguez J. C. Balcorta Painting Cruz Balcorta J. F. Plastering Juan Florez JFM Enterprises, Inc. Jaime Flores J & H Concrete & Post Tension Jorge Herrera Jack White Building Specialties Claudia Lardizabal James L. Ellis, CPA, PC Jim Ellis Jimmy Garza Emergency Water Removal Jimmy Garza Jobe Materials, LP Charlie Tellez Joe Bernal Ins. & Financial Services, Inc. Joe M. Bernal Jose Moreno Dry Wall Jose Moreno Juan Carlos Perez Grading Juan Carlos Perez Keenan Supply Nancy Rivas Keller Williams Susan Flores Keller Williams Mo Goodarzi LOI Engineers Bernardino Olague L & P Building Supply Denise McConnell Legacy Real Estate Serv./TTI Prop. Man. Patrick Tuttle Leon Real Estate Jorge Leon Lone Star Title Co. of El Paso Sam Trimble
Builders Outlook
Lowes Home Improvement Johnny Rodriguez Loyas Shutters Alfredo Loya Magicstone Marco Gomez Majestic Realtors Patti Musshorn MAK Roofing & Construction Felix Vizarreta Marlo Building Services Roberto Martinez Masco Contract Serv dba Gale Insulation William Homan Masonite International Jesse Carlson/ Bob Westby Massey Johnson Josie Ledesma McCoy's Building Supplies Doug Danner Merrill Lynch Thomas Gabriel Miguel Sanchez Cano Miguel Sanchez Cano Minerva Al-Tabbaa Realtor Minerva Al-Tabbaa Mini Concrete Materials Joe Soto Moen Frank Graf Modern Exteriors Hector Macias Monster Link Marketing Raul Mendoza Moreno Cardenas, Inc. Roberto Moreno Morrison Supply Sam Shallenberger MTI Ready Mix, Inc. Tony Mullen New American Funding Tania Guzman New Era Foam George Tollen New Start Insulation Jose Carreon Oropeza Concrete Angel Oropeza Parra's A/C and Heating Service Aureliano Parra Pate & Appleby, LLP Richard De Santos Patriot Mortgage Randy Bowling Pella Windows Jason Bates Performance Glass & Aluminum Hector Hernandez Commerce Mortgage Stephen Sepulveda, Gilbert Pedregon Polar Mechanical LLC Francisco Amezquita Post Tension Steel Dennis Moore Powerfoam Insulation Arnie Pedersen
Prewire of El Paso, Inc. Steven Drury Prosperus Title & Escrow Alexandra Jade Hedrick Q Martins Plumbing Jose Martinez Quality Granite Hector Porras RGR Roofing, LLC Mario Rodriguez Ramon Romero Painting Ramon Romero Randall Smith, CPA Randall Smith Rebath of El Paso/Las Cruces Lisa Walling Remcon Self Storage Will Harvey Rey Construction Manuel Reyes Richman Group Affordable Housing Corp. Kevin Hoffman Rito Magallanes Rito Magallanes Rocky Mountain Mortgage Company Dean Inniss Roe, Brad Bradley Roe Rudolph Chevrolet Mike Ruffin SBNG, P.C. Tyler Smith S & J Drywall, LLC Yair Jalil & Sergio Jalil Saldivar Electric, Inc. Martin A. Saldivar Sarabias Blue Sanitation Monica Brown Segura Framing Erika Segura Senercon Border Solar Javier Ruiz Senpai Training and Development Leonardo Corral Sergio Herrera Framing Sergio Herrera Serrano's Construction Juan Serrano Service Master Commercial Heidi Avedician Sherwin Williams Paint Cruz Lopez Sierra Title Company Angelique Roman, Marielsa Pulido Simpson Strong-Tie Company, Inc. Ken Donham Snappy Publishing Ted Escobedo Soil Mechanics Lorenza Escareno Solar Smart Living Larry Perea Southwest Décor El Paso Corporation Chris Matthews Southwestern Prewire Joe Trejo
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Spectrum Technologies Miled Daou St. Mary's Custom Shutters Dolores Lopez Startech Heating and Air Conditioning Luis Procter Stewart Title of El Paso Cindy Bilbe Stone City Rocks Chris Baca StrucSure Home Warranty Scott Whisenant Supreme Lending Lisa Wren Su Casa Magazine Edwin Rosario Sun City International Doors Jorge Carmona Sun City Winnelson Dean Moore Sun West Windows and Glass Ernie Hernandez Team Juan Uribe, LLC Juan Uribe Texas Gas Services Maria Ortiz Texas Title Company Steve Raney TFCU Yolie Melendez-Estrada The Dorian Group/Ocean Gallery USA Miguel Angel Mercado The Home Systems Heating & Cooling, Inc. Jesus Chain TRE & Associates Linda Troncoso Trim Team Juan & Kris Hernandez United Site Services Ramon Armendariz USA General Contractors Javier Olmos VMP Painting Victor Prieto Value Stone Isabel Chacon Vantage Bank Josie Cantu Vision Consultants, Inc. Kelly Sorenson W.W. Sales Eric Hoppes Western Heritage Bank Kathy Carrillo WestStar Bank David Osborn WestStar Title Pam Ashworth Whirlpool Gwen Walker Wolf Air Arturo Alcantar X Construction Emmanuel Chavarria
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Model Construction Safety Plan The NEW plan includes the addition of recent OSHA requirements such as: Permit Required Confined Spaces Crystalline Silica Standards Access to the previous version of the Model Safety Plan is no longer available. To purchase the new online Model Safety Plan Version 4.0, visit TexasBuilders.org.
This plan is available to TAB members for only $299.99 (plus sales tax). You will receive: • TAB’s Model Construction Safety Program & Jobsite Safety Standards Package© that includes a User Guide and the Model Safety Plan. • Access to a new webinar that will train you and your employees on the use of the Model Safety Plan. • Upon completion of the webinar, a Certificate of Completion stating that you have completed the webinar that provided you with detailed information on developing your company’s safety plan using TAB’s OSHA-reviewed Model Safety Plan. Please watch to the end of the webinar for instructions on obtaining your certificate.
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Builders Outlook
2019 Issue 2
Lower interest rates, rising consumer confidence boost builder sentiment
o s a P l E f o Homes aso.com HomesofElP
Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes rose four points to 62 in February, according to the latest National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today in Las Vegas during the 75th annual International Builders’ Show.
“Ongoing reduction in mortgage rates in recent weeks coupled with continued strength in the job market are helping to fuel builder sentiment,” said NAHB Chairman Randy Noel, a custom home builder from LaPlace, La. “In the aftermath of the fall slowdown, many builders are reporting positive expectations for the spring selling season.” February marked the second consecutive month in which all the HMI indices posted gains. The index measuring current sales conditions rose three points to 67, the component gauging expectations in the next six months increased five points to 68 and the metric charting buyer traffic moved up four points to 48. “Builder confidence levels moved up in tandem with growing consumer confidence and falling interest rates,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “The five-point jump on the sixmonth sales expectation for the HMI is due to mortgage interest rates dropping from about 5 percent in November to 4.4 percent this week. However, affordability remains a critical issue. Rising costs stemming
from excessive regulations, a dearth of buildable lots, a persistent labor shortage and tariffs on lumber and other key building materials continue to make it increasingly difficult to produce housing at affordable price points.” Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for 30 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor. Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the South posted a one-point gain to 63 while the Northeast dropped two points to 43. The Midwest and West each remained unchanged at 52 and 67, respectively.
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2019 Issue 2
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Builders Outlook
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14
Builders Outlook
MARKET WATCH REALTOR.com More millennials are pursuing homeownership now than ever before. The national homeownership rate rose to 64.4 percent in the third quarter this year—an increase of half a percentage point over a year ago, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. That's largely attributed to the rise in new, first-time home buyers.
Millennial buying trends in 2019 Dana Bull, an agent with Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty who has significant experience working with millennial clients, shares five trends to expect in 2019 1. Rising Interest Rates Will Prompt Buyers to Change Strategy Just last week, mortgage rates rose to a seven-year high, with 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaging 4.94 percent. It’s more than likely that rates will climb over 5 percent in the new year. This will cause many buyers to pause and reevaluate their purchasing power and strategy, Bull says. “Even a quarter point has a real impact on housing affordability,” she says. This means you’ll need to take more time to help clients analyze deals and understand what their money can buy in this shifting market.
2. Increased Competition From Baby Boomers for Properties As millennials age and grow in their careers, they are acquiring more purchase power. According to the 2018
2019 Issue 2
5 Millennial Real Estate Trends in 2019
renovating a home to make it their own and the ability to see past outdated wallpaper or a wall that can be easily removed.” Keep this in mind as interest rates continue to rise in 2019 (re: trend number one) and you’re helping clients who want to get creative while staying in their price range.
National Association of REALTORS® Home Buyer and Seller Generational Trends Report, 30 percent of millennials purchased homes for $300,000 and higher in the past year, up from 14 percent in 2013. That means millennials and boomers are going head-to-head for the same homes today. That trend is only going to continue to grow in 2019, Bull predicts. Both groups also seek similar amenities, including walkable neighborhoods and smaller home sizes with more upgrades, she points out. “Buyers in different generations— with wildly different points of view—are competing for the same homes,” she
says. “For sellers and agents, catering to two different generations in marketing homes will also be a challenge.”
3. Willing to Put In Sweat Equity Millennials are becoming more savvy to renovations and repairs, and they may have HGTV to thank for that, Bull says. “Millennial buyers are still far more aware of the work, costs, and implications of a renovation than their parents would have been,” she says. “Popular TV shows mean a more educated millennial buyer who knows what to look for in terms of red flags. But also has more confidence around
4. Clients Who are Well-Researched and Prepared Millennial buyers are doing their online research and are entering the market well-prepared. Show your value as a REALTOR® in other ways, Bull recommends. “They are relying on real estate professionals not to introduce them to homes, most of which they can find online, but to show them what can’t be researched: neighborhoods that are up and coming, which properties stand to gain value in the coming years, and guidance when it comes to negotiations and inspections.”
5. Social Media’s Continued Impact Social media will continue to influence millennials’ homebuying habits, Bull says. This generation relies heavily on online reviews and social media presence to make purchasing decisions. A strong online reputation for real estate professionals is a must in catering to this market, she adds. Showcasing homes on social media— particularly Instagram—is essential for appealing to millennial clients.
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Builders Outlook
2019 Issue 2
6046 Surety Dr. El Paso, TX 79905 915-778-5387 • Fax: 915-772-3038
■ ExEcutivE OFFicERS PRESiDENt Sergio Cuartas vicE PRESiDENt Edgar Garcia SEcREtARY Sal Masoud ExEcutivE vicE PRESiDENt Ray Adauto PASt PRESiDENt Edmundo Dena
■ cOMMittEE cHAiRS: ASSOciAtES cHAiR Luis Rosas GOvERNMENt AFFAiRS Sal Masoud GOLF tOuRNAMENtS Sam Shallenberger FiNANcE cOMMittEE Kathy Carrillo/Treasurer cOMMuNitY OutREAcH Angelique Roman LAND uSE Sal Masoud EDucAtiON Patrick Tuttle iNDuStRY PROMOtiONS Ted Escobedo
■ ADviSORY tO tHE BOARD Jay Kerr, Firth, Johnston, Bunn & Kerr
■ BOARD OF DiREctORS Builders: Jaime Gonzalez, Blue Sage Homes Lee Gillett, Classic American Homes Lydia Mlouhi, Crown Heritage Homes Dan Berry, D B Innovations,LLC Delton Deal, Deal-2-Deal Eder Gallardo, Edwards Homes Leti Navarrete, EPT Bella Custom Dream Homes Kathy Parry, Hunt Companies Samira Gonzalez, Icon Custom Home Builders Laura Loy, Loyalty Homes JJ Vasquez Pacifica Homes Trevor Turner, Rassette Homes Fernie Santana, Santana Homes Jacob Barde, Tropicana Homes Associates: Sandra Lucero, Builders Source John Chaney, Hercules Industries Luis Rosas, HUB International Jorge Herrera, J & H Post Concrete & Tension Joe Bernal, Joe Bernal Insurance Patrick Tuttle, Legacy Real Estate Service Aaron Rich, Lone Star Title
Johnny Rodriguez, Lowe's Randall Smith, Randall Smith, Cpa Justin Hahn, Rocky Mountain Mortgage Angelique Roman, Sierra Title Ted Escobedo, Snappy Publishing Patricia Martinez, Stewart Title ■ tAB StAtE DiREctORS Randy Bowling, Life Director Sam Shallenberger Edmundo Dena Gus Loy Don Rassette Luis Rosas ■ NAtiONAL DiREctORS Bobby Bowling, IV Demetrio Jimenez
Honorary Life Members Rudy Guel Brad Roe Wayne Grinnell Don Henderson Anna Gill Mark Dyer Sam Shallenberger
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