Builders Outlook 2020 Issue 5 by Ted Escobedo

www.elpasobuilders.com

VOL 2020 ISSUE 5

BuildersOutlook PUBLISHED BY THE EL PASO ASSOCIATION OF BUILDERS: NATIONAL, STATE AND LOCAL HOME BUILDING INDUSTRY NEWS

Housing Data Hint at Potential for Economic Recovery

NAHB Provides economic outlook for building industry

Data shows effects of pandemic less than the industry expected

NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz provides the latest weekly economic analysis on the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic: Housing data was in focus this week, with April readings showing market impacts from government-imposed shutdowns intended to facilitate virus mitigation. While those impacts were strongly negative, the realized declines have been relatively smaller in the housing industry than initially forecasted. Moreover, the notable resiliency of housing demand amid historic job losses is an indicator of the potential of the housing sector to help lead the economy in an eventual rebound. While challenges still lie ahead — particularly the possibility for a large, second outbreak of the virus in the fall — the designation of home construction

as an essential industry combined with the reopening of major portions of the U.S. economy sets the stage for improving data for the housing sector in the months ahead. The benchmark measure of builder confidence, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), rebounded in May, increasing seven points to a still negative reading of 37. The gain in May nonetheless pointed to improvements for housing starts ahead, with April being a low point for the current recession. Single-family starts were down 25% in April from March, declining to an annualized rate of 650,000. The April level marks the slowest annualized pace since 2015 and is off 37% since the strong rate recorded in February. The strength of the early 2020 data means that even with recent declines, single-family starts remain 1% higher for the first four months of the year compared to the first four month of 2019. The NAHB Multifamily Production Index (MPI) showed a 22-point drop in the first quarter, falling to a negative reading of 27. This reading of the MPI is consistent with

declines for the multifamily forecast as job losses mount. Indeed, multifamily starts declined 40.5% in April to a 241,000 annualized rate. This represents a 62% decline from the peak January rate. A recovery for apartment construction will depend on the pace of job restoration as economies reopen. Existing home sales, as estimated by the National Association of Realtors, experienced the largest decline in 10 years. Despite being down 18% in April relative to March, current inventory remains tight, with only a 4.1-months’ supply. Pricing actually accelerated to a 7% year-over-year gain, which is another indicator of the potential gains for housing. Another positive indicator comes from the Mortgage Bankers Association mortgage data, which finds that mortgage applications for home purchases have increased for five straight weeks and are down only 1% compared to a year ago. Given this demand environment, thus far, relatively few builders are cutting prices to generate sales. In the April HMI, only 22% of builders reported using price incentives, and among

those, the typical price cut was only 5%. In contrast, 40% of builders reduced prices at the end of 2018, during the housing soft patch of 2018-2019. Despite these relatively encouraging housing data points, macro data continue to show historic challenges. Another 2.4 million jobless claims were filed this week, bringing the two-month total to almost 39 million total job losses. The data implies an unemployment rate of more than 17%, with our forecast suggesting a rate closer to 20% for the second quarter. Such job losses will have ripple effects on purchase data for consumers, although it is worth noting that prior economic research finds that duration matters for job losses. When unemployment is held to periods of less than six months, consumers are able to adapt without major changes in decisions regarding large purchase plans. The April job report found that 18 million individuals believed it was possible for them to regain their prior employment, which is an encouraging sign for a rebound

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GET MOVING! JOIN US AUGUST 15

T N E V E R E B M E M B A P E E V I EXCLUS This highly promoted event is an ideal opportunity to identify first time home buyers and offer your services as they begin their search for a new home. A special grand prize sweepstakes promotion will be featured in all event advertising to help encourage a great turn-out. Visitors can play to win $100,00. Game courtesy of Sierra Title. By participating in First Home Saturday, you will have the opportunity to meet first time home buyers at your exhibitor booth and receive contact data for visitors entering our sweepstakes. First Home Saturday is specifically designed for affordable home builders and those who wish to reach this valuable target market. LOCATION Bassett, with its central location and ample parking, is a perfect location for First Home Saturday. Recent demographic data indicates that this is an ideal venue to target first time buyers.

SHOWTIME The First Home Saturday Event will open Augist 15 at 10:00 AM and conclude at 4:00 PM. Exhibitors will be allowed to set up their booths starting at 4:00 PM June 26 and Saturday August 14 between 8:00AM - 9:30AM. ADVERTISING A media plan with radio, television, and print advertising wil begin prior to the event and run until Show Day. A social media campaign will also be launched two weeks before the event. EXHIBITOR BOOTHS Booths are available for $350 per space and a 6ft table. CORPORATE PARTNERSHIP Packages available and include featured prominence in all advertising and an exhibitor booth.

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2020Issue5

EPAB President’sMessage

Pray for protection as we face more challenges

PRINT & INTERNET PUBLISHING SOCIAL MEDIA & WEBSITE CONTENT MANAGEMENT

Edgar Garcia President El Paso Association of Builders

Here we are coming out of one thing and another pops out. The Covid 19 is one of the most destructive events we’ve seen because not only is it deadly, but it is so widespread. We are getting more and more testing done and that of course means more positive results. I am so proud of our members who have done the right things, facemasks, wash stations, temperature checks. I know for my company we’ve been very busy and grateful for being busy, but I think that is true for many other builders and businesses. You know that when you’re told to stay at home and work from there, we just couldn’t do it, so I’m thankful that our local, state and

national associations had the political will to demand we stay open. We have and so far, so good. My background as a former fireman has given me some real life experiences that impacted me. Going to a fire, helping someone at a car crash, or seeing someone die impacts you and you must find a channel for it. Those images and smells never really leave. The image of an innocent man being handcuffed and then killed by police is terrible and unspeakable. The video was hard to see, but the things going on now are as well. The protests against injustice is one thing we all support but rioting and looting is not. My

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firefighting brothers and sisters had to wear bullet proof vests to fight a fire, and that is a first as far as I can remember. We as builders don’t understand destroying for the sake of destroying, so it is so hard to watch so much of it targeting the businesses who are trying to come out of the virus. I hope that you will join me in condemning this and praying for our communities and country. We need to protect our way of life and get to the return of justice and safety. Stay safe, stay aware.

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Executive’sMessage

The road back to recovery is fraught with obstacles

Ray Adauto Executive Vice President El Paso Association of Builders

As we enter the fourth month of quarantine the state and the country are reopening slowly. Well almost. Because of political pressure from the county leadership and local politicians in the form of a letter to Governor Greg Abbott El Paso was stopped from implementing Phase II of the reopening like 99% of the state has done. Only El Paso and Amarillo were left out, even though Amarillo has significantly higher rates of Covid confirmations per capita the actions of the County Judge, county Health Director, Congresswoman Escobar, state Reps and local politicians applauded the move after they signed the letter. Mayor Dee Margo did not sign it. Covid as it turns out is quickly becoming a hot political item, although it is a virus that comes from the same family, SARS. What makes this one different is that Covid19 is

not a naturally occurring virus according to scientist. So, it is manufactured and it either escaped or was sent out, depending again on what you believe. One thing for sure that it has done is brought the worlds economy to its knees. And in that, perhaps the experiment worked, as it would seem virtually impossible to stop given the strength it had prior to Covid. Unemployment was at 3%, now it’s 30+%. Before there were lots of plans for new and exciting business ventures, money and jobs abundant. We were living a pretty good life. And then Covid. Today we see some big business names going bankrupt like Hertz, JC Penny, Nordstrom’s, Macy’s. People are needing food, where before they were giving food. Kids aren’t playing, and graduation may or may not happen, certainly not like we normally do. Even my 50th high

school graduation ceremony was cancelled. If this virus was intentionally released, then it is truly criminal. It has killed over 100,000 Americans, and hundreds of thousands around the world. It turns out I’m in the “high risk” group to catch and die from this. If there was a plan to get rid of us oldsters, this is one insidious way to do it. Our builders and the supporting suppliers and vendors have struggled through the myriad of rules, orders if you will, in order to continue working and building homes. I can testify that the early days of the lockdown were absolutely horrifying, as those who couldn’t work put us in their cross hairs. Why could we work and not them? What made us special, and more. Much more. Neighbor pitted against neighbor, family against family, friend against friend. Our

leisure activities stopped, our homes turned into schools, and if you were thinking of vacation forget it. For us the worst part was losing personal contact with family and friends. Social distancing sucks when it causes separation of your life. Sadly, it isn’t over yet. The Covid virus is mutating, and like all the flu’s we know of, it will be around a long time. Yes vaccines, yes testing, yes to all that. But frankly the cost has been too high. History should take note, don’t do what we did or allowed others to do to us. While evil things have happened there are yet rays of sunshine. I’m proud of our members for hanging in there and doing what is right. We will come out of this one way or another. Now we need to start to live again. I hope we get the chance.

2020Issue5

BuildersOutlook

NationalOutlook How the Multifamily Industry Is Adapting to COVID-19 Compliance

El Paso Disposal

NAHB

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected multiple facets of both business and day-to-day life. Multifamily properties experience a unique challenge in that they combine both under the same roof â&#x20AC;&#x201D; business operations as well as residential life â&#x20AC;&#x201D; along with a host of other components, such as common areas and amenities, as well as the compliance requirements to operate the facility. On Wednesday, June 3, NAHB will host a webinar, COVID-19 Compliance & Operational Challenges in Multifamily Property Management, to highlight best practices in property management and compliance and provide action plans for the COVID-19 crisis. One of the key challenges is how to adopt virtual protocols to connect with applicants and residents. â&#x20AC;&#x153;From a compliance standpoint, gathering information required by housing programs while being unable to meet with applicants and residents easily and safely in person presents real challenges,â&#x20AC;? shared Scott Michael Dunn of Costello Companies, one of the panelists for the upcoming webinar. â&#x20AC;&#x153;Of course, property managers have much more than just compliance work in their very people-centric job description. Every aspect of their job is affected by an inability to meet with applicant or residents as they have in the past.â&#x20AC;? Comparable to inspections, where cities have opted to go virtual to help keep construction projects moving forward, tax credit allocators are also exploring situation-based reasonable measures to ensure compliance. This includes measures such as the collection of electronic documents and scanned signatures, which may or may not have been previously permitted in certain jurisdictions. An additional example, Dunn noted, is looking to HUD guidance and best practices to determine if adjustments to state tax credit policies would be beneficial. â&#x20AC;&#x153;For several years, HUD has allowed for the collection of paystubs as third-party verification, and HOME also

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requires this,â&#x20AC;? he added. â&#x20AC;&#x153;Many states that have not allowed this in the past for tax credit certification to conform with other programs are now starting to do so as an option to meet COVID-19 challenges.â&#x20AC;? Dunn and his fellow panelists â&#x20AC;&#x201D; zWesley Daniel of ConAm Management, Susan Westbrook of the North Carolina Housing Finance Agency, and Jennifer Marchand of Oregon Housing and Community Services â&#x20AC;&#x201D; will share more practical ideas to identify and meet compliance and operational challenges in the multifamily market in their upcoming webinar on June 3 at 3 p.m. ET.Âş

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PARENTING IN A PANDEMIC: Tips to Keep the Calm at Home Fear, uncertainty, and being holed up at home to slow the spread of COVID-19 can make it tough for families to keep a sense of calm. But it's important to help children feel safe, keep healthy routines, manage their behavior and build resilience. Here are some tips from the American Academy (AAP) to help your family through the outbreak. Address children's fears

Children rely on their parents for safety, both physical and emotional. Reassure your children that you are there for them and that your family

will get through this together. Answer questions about the pandemic simply & honestly. Talk with children about any frightening news they hear. It is OK to say people are getting sick, but say following rules like hand washing and staying home will help your family stay healthy. Recognize your child's feelings. Calmly say, for example, “I can see that you are upset because you can't have your friends over." Guiding questions can help older children and teens work through issues. (“I know it is disappointing not to be able to hang with your friends right now. How do you think you can stay in touch with them?") Keep in touch with loved ones. Children may also worry about a grandparent who is living alone or a relative or friend with an increased risk of getting COVID-19. Video chats can help ease their anxiety. Model how to manage feelings. Talk through how you are managing your own feelings. (“I am worried about Grandma since I can't go visit her. The best I can do is to check in with her more often by phone. I will put a reminder on my phone to call her in the morning and the afternoon until this outbreak ends.") Tell your child before you leave the house for work or essential errands. In a calm and reassuring voice, tell them where you are going, how long you will be gone, when you will return, and that you are taking steps to stay safe. Look forward. Tell them that scientists are working hard to figure out how to help people who get ill, and that things will get better.

2020Issue5 Offer extra hugs and say “I love you" more often. Keep healthy routines During the pandemic, it is more important than ever to maintain bedtime and other routines. They create a sense of order to the day that offers reassurance in a very uncertain time. All children, including teens, benefit from routines that are predictable yet flexible enough to meet individual needs. Structure the day. With the usual routines thrown off, establish new daily schedules. Break up schoolwork when possible. Older children and teens can help with schedules, but they should follow a general order, such as: wake-up routines, getting dressed, breakfast and some active play in the morning, followed by quiet play and snack to transition into schoolwork, lunch, chores, exercise, some online social time with friends, and then homework in the afternoon. family time & reading before bed. A word about bedtimes Children often have more trouble with bedtime during any stressful period. Try to keep normal nighttime routines such as Book, Brush, Bed for younger children. Put a family picture by their bed for “extra love" until morning. Bedtimes can shift some for older children and teens, but it is a good idea to keep it in a reasonable range so the sleep-wake cycle isn't thrown off. Too little sleep makes it more challenging to learn and to deal with emotions. Remember to turn off cell phones and other mobile devices an hour before bedtime. CONTINUES >

2020Issue5

PARENTING IN A PANDEMIC: Tips to Keep the Calm at Home

Use positive discipline Everyone is more anxious and worried during the pandemic. Younger children may not have the words to describe their feelings. They're more likely to act out their stress, anxiety or fear through their behavior (which can, in turn, upset parents, particularly if they are already stressed). Older children and teens may be extra irritable as they miss out on time with friends and special events being cancelled. Some ways you can help your children manage their emotions and behavior: Redirect bad behavior. Sometimes children misbehave because they are bored or don't know any better. Find something else for them to do. Creative play. Suggest your children draw pictures of ways your family is staying safe. Make a collage and hang it up to remind everyone. Or, build an indoor fort or castle to keep the germs at bay, bringing in favorite stuffed animals or toys. Direct your attention. Attention--to reinforce good behaviors and discourage others--is a powerful tool.

BuildersOutlook Notice good behavior and point it out, praising success and good tries. Explaining clear expectations, particularly with older children, can help with this. Use rewards & privileges to reinforce good behaviors (completing school assignments, chores, getting along with siblings, etc.) that wouldn't normally be given during less stressful times. Know when not to respond. As long as your child isn't doing something dangerous and gets attention for good behavior, ignoring bad behavior can be an effective way of stopping it. Use time-outs. This discipline tool works best by warning children they will get a time-out if they don't stop. Remind them what they did wrong in as few words―and with as little emotion―as possible. Then, remove them from the situation for a pre-set length of time (1 minute per year of age is a good guide). Special Time In Even with everyone home together 24/7, set aside some special time with each child. You choose the time, and let your child choose the activity. Just 10 or 20 minutes of your undivided attention, even if only once every few days, will mean a lot to your child. Keep cell phones off or on silent so you don't get distracted. Avoid physical punishment. Spanking, hitting, and other forms of physical or “corporal" punishment risks injury and isn't effective. Physical punishment can increase aggression in children over time, fails to teach them to behave or practice self-control, and can

even interfere with normal brain development. Corporal punishment may take away a child's sense of safety and security at home, which are especially needed now. The AAP reminds parents and caregivers never to shake or jerk a child, which could cause permanent injuries and disabilities and even result in death. Tips for calming a fussy baby and advice for caregivers who have reached a breaking point can be found here. If you have a friend, relative, or neighbor with the new baby at home, think of ways you can reach out to provide support during the isolation period. Take care of yourself. Caregivers also should be sure to take care of themselves physically: eat healthy, exercise and get enough sleep. Find ways to decompress and take breaks. If more than one parent is home, take turns watching the children if possible. Remember to take a breath. In addition to reaching out to others for help, the AAP recommends parents feeling overwhelmed or especially stressed try to take just a few seconds to ask themselves: Does the problem represent an immediate danger? How will I feel about this problem tomorrow? Is this situation permanent? In many cases, the answers will deflate the panic and the impulse to lash out physically or verbally at children. Last Updated 5/20/2020 Source American Academy of Pediatrics (Copyright © 2020)The

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FlashbackOutlook

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EPABMembers&Services Builder-DeveloperMembers Althon Investments, LLC Jose Luis Martin 915-532-3100 Bain Construction Scott Bain 915-852-8620 Bella Vista Custom Homes, Inc. Edgar Garcia 915-433-4854 BIC Homes, LLC Sergio Cuartas 915-855-8236 Blue Sage Homes, LLC Jaime E. Gonzalez 915-787-9175 Blue Star Construction Carlos Villasana 915-217-6003 CS Custom Homes, LLC Steve Gonzalez 915-346-1107 Carefree Homes Richard Aguilar 915-590-8511 Casas De Leon, LLC Nick Bombach 915-584-5050 Cisco Homes LLC Francisco Arroyos III 915-633-8002 Classic American Homes Priscilla Hernandez 915-593-7707 Crown Heritage Homes Lydia Mlouhi 915-252-8193 Cullers & Caldwell Builders John Cullers 915-584-560

Cullers Homes Jason R. Cullers 915-584-5600 Dawco Home Builders Walter O. Lujan 915-587-5267 Deal-2-Deal Custom Homes dba Deal2Deal,LLC Delton Deal 915-217-9233 Del Rio Engineering, Inc. Sal Masoud 915-833-2400 Diamond Homes, LLC Valerie Baquera 915-449-9044 E.P.V.W. LLC Jim Volk 915-525-0478 E. Valencia Land Development LLC Eddie Valencia 915-855-0622 Eclat Homes & Design Veronica Guerra 915-630-6729 Edward's Homes, Inc. Eduardo Fernandez 915-849-8819 EPT Bella Custom Dream Homes, LLC Leti & Javier Navarette 915-779-4553 EPT Land Communities David Bogas 915-838-8100

AssociateMembers 3RD PARTY INSPECTIONS Vision Consultants, Inc. Kelly Sorenson 915-227-2100 ALARM SYSTEMS ADT Security Veronica Vazquez 9152583870 APPLIANCE DISTRIBUTORS Builders Source Appliance Gallery Sandra Lucero 915-775-1000 Morrison Supply Sam Shallenberger 915-778-3086 APPLIANCES GE Appliances Christine R. Villanueva 806-252-3683 Whirlpool Gwen Walker 505-220-3915 ASPHALT PAVING Alpha Asphalt Gabriel Chavez 915-252-6244 ASSOCIATION El Paso Mortgage Bankers Association Brenda Aguirre 915 204-3867 Greater El Paso Assoc. of Realtors Jason Sanchez 915-779-3521 Greater El Paso Chamber of Commerce David Michael Jerome 915-534-0522 ATTORNEY F B K N Law Firm Victor Firth 915-532-7500 AUDIO VIDEO/HOME THEATER DESIGN El Paso Audio Video Joe Gutierrez 915-346-9118 BANKS/BANKING SERVICES Bank of Texas Ray Owen

Everest Homes Edmundo Dena, Jr. 915-352-8721 Fortune Custom Homes Javier Andrade 915-856-7795 Gaddy Construction Charles Gaddy 915-581-3966 Guel Construction Rudy Guel 915-595-0979 Hakes Brothers LLC Ryan O'Hea 575-373-1120 Hanson Asset Management, LP Russell Hanson 915-842-0111 Hunt Communities, LLC Kathy Parry 915-298-0490 ICON Custom Home Builder, LLC Carlos Garcia 915-859-3713 Industrial Realty Group Inc. Brent D. Harris 915-877-4300 JER Custom Homes, LLC Jorge E. Rodriguez 915-249-6320 Lloyd Hamilton Contruction Lloyd Hamilton, III 915-588-8558 Loyalty Homes Gustavo Loy 915-471-1894

M A Builders & Design, LLC Mustafa Ali 915-587-9566 Maravilla Homes Victor Robles 915-328-8599 Metro Homes Judith Arrunada, Fernando Torres 915-231-6060 Pacifica Homes, Inc. Juan Jose Vasquez 915-857-1855 Padilla Homes Misael Navarrete 915-833-3839 Palo Verde Homes Edgar Montiel 915-584-9090 Pointe Homes Carlos Villalobos 915-790-1515 Punto Living,LLC Uriel Miramontes 915-309-4963 R.C. Baeza & Associates Robert C. Baeza 915-857-1818 R.E. Welch Contractor Gordon Welch 915-778-9977 Rassette Homes, Inc. Donald Rassette 915-585-3330 Santana Homes Fernando Santana 915-694-4256

Southwest Land Development Serv. Doug Schwartz 915-592-0290 Spanish Oaks Custom Homes Juan R. Saenz 432-238-3090 The Heritage Group David Bingham 915-598-6606 Trejo Construction Co. Juan Trejo 915-637-5193 Tropicana Building Corp. Bobby Bowling IV 915-821-3550 Tropicana Development Greg Bowling 915-757-1802 Tropicana Homes Randy Bowling 915-821-3550 Tropicana Properties Demetrio Jimenez 915-755-9113 Uptown Homes Residential, Inc. Francisco Baquera 915-240-4996 Veliz Company Carina Popoca 915-219-4000 Winton/Flair / Accent Homes Herschel Stringfield 915-584-8629 ZIA Homes of El Paso LLC Preston Brown 915-490-9525

Appears Alphabetically by Service or Product

915-313-6720 City Bank Texas Bob Kotarski 915-833-0267 Citizens Loan Center Jim Easley 915-275-0715 Sunflower Bank Ernesto Avila 915-881-6702 Vantage Bank Josie Cantu 915-594-3404 Western Heritage Bank Kathy Carrillo 915-782-2400 WestStar Bank David Osborn 915-747-1640 BATHROOM RENOVATIONS Rebath of El Paso/Las Cruces Lisa Walling 915-633-8101 BRICK Acme Brick Company Brent Smith 915-859-9171 BUILDING MATERIALS BMC Select David Quintana 915-218-5816 Boise Cascade Mike Flores 915-525-6037 DWS Building Supply Sabrina Voorhies 915-351-7300 E.F. Building Materials, Inc Efren Fraire 915-593-1301 El Paso Building Materials Ken Wade 915-549-1170 Franklin Building Materials Cristina Sheldon 915-855-3859 Simpson Strong-Tie Company, Inc. Ken Donham 505-991-4719 McCoy's Building Supplies Doug Danner 915-751-8261

L & P Building Supply Denise McConnell 575-527-8000 Foxworth Galbraith Lumber Dan Villarreal 915-779-7777 CABINET MANUFACTURING J. B. Laminates Gina Rodriguez 915-886-5510 CABINETS Cabinet Masters Mike Robles 915-256-5012 CIVIL ENGINEERS Moreno Cardenas Inc. Roberto Moreno 915-532-2091 COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE SERVICES: NAI El Paso Max Prestridge 915-345-2095 CONCRETE Oropeza Concrete Angel Oropeza 915-873-7391 CONCRETE & LANDSCAPING MATERIAL GCC Sun City Materials, LLC Antonio “Tony “ Chavez 915-565-4681 Jobe Materials, LP Charlie Tellez 915-298-9900 Mini Concrete Materials Joe Soto 915-852-4468 MTI Ready Mix, Inc. Tony Mullen 915-859-5767 CONCRETE ACCESSORIES & MASONRY-LANDSCAPE Border Construction Specialties Ricardo Yvellez 915-566-1688

CONCRETE WORK-POST TENSION J & H Concrete & Post Tension Jorge Herrera ‘ 915-581-3103

DISPOSAL HAULING Demcon Disposal Management, LLC Ryan Robles 915-577-9477

CONCRETE WORK Galindo Concrete Alfredo Galindo 915-355-0896

DOOR SHOP/ MILLWORK SUPPLIER Trim Team Juan Hernandez 915-856-0791

CONSULTING, COACHING AND TRAINING Senpai Training and Development Leonardo Corral 915-303-0743

DOORS Franklin Door and Trim Jesse C. Brown 940-210-0450 Masonite International Bob Westby 408-271-5553

CONSTRUCTION SUPPLIES: Silicone Specialties Inc. Robert Romero 915-591-6800 CONSULTING/ENGINEERING LOI Engineers Bernardino Olague 915-781-1532 915-871-1190 CORPORTATE RETIREMENT PLANS Bukaty Financial Companies Group Ruth Rivera 512-796-1205 CPA Beasley, Mitchell & Co., LLP Brad Beasley 575-528-6700 James L. Ellis, CPA, PC Jim Ellis 915-593-7070 915-598-8631 SBNG, P.C. Tyler Smith 915-544-6770 Randall Smith, CPA Randall Smith 915-225-5200 915-533-8266 CREDIT UNION First Light Federal Credit Union Lorenzo Revelez 915-225-0581 GECU- Greater El Paso Credit Union Danny Galindo 915-774-4733 TFCU Yolie Melendez-Estrada 915-843-8328

DRYWALL Candy Rodriguez 915-282-4544 DUMPSTER RENTAL/SPRAY FOAM INSULATION 915 Siteworks, LLC Miguel Chavez 915-859-3713 ELECTRICAL CONTRACTORS Castillo Electric Joe Castillo 915-877-3335 Haskins Electric Charles B. Haskins, Jr. 915-629-9196 IES Residential Joshua Garnica 915-356-5644 Allbrite Electric Carlos Nunez 915-630-9432 ENERGY STAR RATER Senercon Javier Ruiz 915-892-0547.

2020Issue5 ENGINEERING CEA Engineering Group Jorge L. Azcarate 915-544-5232. Conde, Inc. Conrad Conde 915-592-0283. TRE & Associates Linda Troncoso 915-852-9093. EXTERIOR FOIL SHEATHING Powerfoam Insulation 972-299-5556 EXTERIOR PATIO PRODUCTS Modern Exteriors Hector Macias 915-857-5126 FIREPLACES/INSTALLATION Jack White Building Specialties Claudia Lardizabal 915-855-8630 FLOORING Bordertown Carpets Brian M. Abraham 915-522-8993 FOAM INSULATION New Era Foam George Tollen 915-861-6683 FRAMERS Herrera’s Construction Sergio Herrera 915-328-6024 GARAGE DOORS Steven Escandon Garage Doors Steve Escandon 915-329-9188 Garage Doors And More Miguel Moran 915-831-9828 GRANITE/QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS Stone City Rocks Chris Baca 915-246-7614 Quality Granite Hector Porras 915-234-2410 HOME & AUTO INSURANCE State Auto/Association Insurance Solution Danner Bethel 512-203-2910 HOME FURNISHINGS Copenhagen Imports Flemming Carlsen 915-581-8897 915-584-7769 HOME WARRANTY 2-10 Home Buyers Warranty Leslie Schey 361-739-7739 Centricity Brent R. Morgan 800-749-0381X4790 Home of Texas Amanda Eason 210-540-7891 StrucSure Home Warranty Scott Whisenant 210-232-3947 HVAC A C Refrigeration, LLC Angel Cabrera 915-820-8503 Startech Heating and Air Conditioning Luis Procter 915-757-1982 Wolf Air Arturo Alcantar 915-694-8214 HVAC DUCTLESS MINI SPLIT Mitsubishi Electric Trane HVA 505-228-4264 HVAC EQUIPMENT Lennox Industries Brandon Walker 818-932-5063 Goodman Mfg. Jorge Guajardo 915-219-3896 HVAC SALES/INSTALLATION Belmont's Air Conditioning, Inc. Rafael Belmonte 915-778-7399 El Paso 4 Tech A/C Services Enrique Hernandez 915-877-0122 HVAC Supplies Hercules Industries John Chaney 915-778-9377

BuildersOutlook I T SUPPORT/PREWIRE All Tech Systems LLC Javier Terrones 915-777-2585 I T & WEB DESIGN Cognent, Inc. Martin Paredes 407-809-4417. INSURANCE Bundle Bee Insurance Agency Victoria Dominguez 915-598-3500 Great American Insurance Group Julie Tomlinson 513-412-4921 INSURANCE - RISK MANAGEMENT HUB International Luis Rosas 915-206-6023 INSURANCE AND BONDING C. D. Lee/Britton Insurance & Bonding Anthony Landavazo/Lisa Daniels 915-595-3393 IRON WORK PRODUCTS Area Iron & Steel Works, Inc. Fred L. Edmonston Jr. 915-833-9494 LEGAL SERVICES/TITLE COMPANY David J. Ellis Fee Office for Sierra Title David J. Ellis 915-566-2666. 915-566-0111 KITCHEN CABINETS Marcel Sierra Kitchens Marcela Villarreal 915-892-3008 LIGHTING City Lights Thomas Brown 915-533-6045. 915-533-6096 Designer's Mart Valerie Edmiston 915-778-9223 LIGHTING & BATH FIXTURES Ferguson Enterprises Inc. Albert Holguin 915-231-5836. 915-231-9357 LOW VOLTAGE WIRING Prewire of El Paso, Inc. Steven Drury 915-598-4937 Southwerstern Prewire Joe Trejo 915-549-2611 LUMBER 84 Lumber Ernie Chavez 915-584-8447 MIRROR, SHOWER DOOR, STOREFRONT,AUTOMATIC DOORS & CURTAIN WALLS Performance Glass & Aluminum Hector Hernandez 915-592-5583 MOLDING & LUMBER Adams Moulding & Lumber Tom Swahlen 915-584-1440 MORTGAGE COMPANIES Cadence Lending Group Carolyn De Leon 915-779-1633 915-706-2649 Patriot Mortgage Randy Bowling 915-757-9500 Rocky Mountain Mortgage Company Justin Hahn 915-593-3111 Supreme Lending Lisa Wren 601-549-6768 Commerce Mortgage Stephen Sepulveda, Gilbert Pedregon 915-209-3189 NEW CONSTRUCTION EQUIPMENT & SUPPLIES ProCon Shane Davis, 575-524-1671 NEWSPAPER El Paso Times Sal Hernandez, Justin Riley 915-546-6244. 915-546-6406 OFFICE COFFEE & WATER COOLER SERVICE Coffee Break Joe Petty 915-314-4248

PAINT DISTRIBUTOR Dunn-Edwards Paints Sandra Nieves 915-855-7535 915-855-8168 Sherwin Williams Paint Cruz Lopez 915-532-6921. PAYROLL SERVICES Paylocity Corporation Andy Moran 915-471-9846 PLUMBING J & L Vega Plumbing Co. Flavio Vega 915-867-5954 Big O Plumbing Alex Olmeda 915-412-1821 Q Martins Plumbing Jose Martinez 915-240-5218. PLUMBING & IRRIGATION SUPPLIES-DISTRIBUTORS Sun City Winnelson Dean Moore 915-532-1600 El Paso Winnelson Rene Goldfien 915-778-4640. W.W. Sales Eric Hoppes 505-463-8204 WinSupply West El Paso David Trammell 915-886-3697 PORTABLE RESTROOMS Sarabias Blue Sanitation Monica Brown 915-544-9022. 915-533-3108 Porta- Jons POST TENSION Post Tension Steel Dennis Moore 915-474-0180. 915-532-0119 PUBLICATIONS Homes of El Paso Riley Stephens 915-585-1000 PUBLISHING SERVICES Snappy Publishing, LLC Ted Escobedo 915-820-2800 READY MIX MTI Ready Mix, Inc. Tony Mullen 915-859-5767 REAL ESTATE SERVICES Home Pros Real Estate Group Penny Moore. 915-585-8806 Legacy Real Estate Services Patrick Tuttle 915-231-9994. Century 21 The Edge Scott Kesner 915-772-0553 Harris Real Estate Group Lane Harris 915-443-8423 Bella Vista Realty Grisel Ortega 915-491-2056 The Real Estate Agency Jesus Villanueva 915-412-9503 New Beginnings Real Estate Gordon Sather 915-241-6500 RES. & COMM BUILDING PRODUCTS Massey Johnson Josie Ledesma 915-487-3359 ROLL OFF DUMPSTERS Red Box Plus Steven St. Andre 915-226-9664 ROOFING HP Roofing Heriberto Prieto 915-727-2461 Imperial Roofing Alejandro Garcia 915-222-3838 USA General Contractors Javier Olmos 915-633-3339 ROOFING PRODUCTS ABC Supply Co., Inc. Larry Eck 915-533-0645 Eagle Roofing Products Scott Aguilar 928-220-3899. SHOWER ENCLOSURES Complete Glass Company Alonso Torres 915-408-2521

SIDING, WINDOWS, PATIO COVERS,CARPORTS Modern Exteriors Hector Macias 915-857-5126 SOLAR PANELS Border Solar Javier Ruiz 915-613-4168 Solar Smart Living Larry Perea 915-400-2995 STORMWATER/SAFETY ESS Environmental and Safety Solutions Jose L. Garcia Ramirez 915-775-1171 915-775-1174 STUCCO FINISHER Alvarado Plastering & Stucco Enrique Alvarado 915-691-3870 SURVEYING ENGINEERING Barragan & Associates Benito Barragan 915-591-5709 TESTING & ENGINEERING CQC Testing and Engineering,LLC Jaime Rojas 915-771-7766 TILE AND CARPET DF Tile & Carpet, Inc. David Finnegan 915-525-8954 TILE & NATURAL STONE Emser Tile Tim Collins 915-629-9317 Floor & Decor Pedro (Peter) Ramirez 915-407-5599 Interceramic Tile & Stone Gallery David Holguin 915-593-7357 TILE INSTALLATION Cano’s Tile Miguel Cano 915-226-2148

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TITLE & ESCROW COMPANIES Del Sol Title Co. Hector Phillips 915-838-8000 Lone Star Title Co. of El Paso Andy Quintana 915-545-2222 Prosperous Title Janette Coon 915-288-2462 Sierra Title Company Angelique Roman, Marielsa Pulido 915-544-3322 Stewart Title of El Paso Cindy Bilbe 915-225-8200 WestStar Title Kristine Johnson 915-849-5537 Texas Title Company Steve Raney 915-593-3400

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2020Issue5

MarketOutlook El Paso Builder Market Breakdown

By the El Paso Association of Builders Market Intelligence Committee

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Here is a collection of key housing market indicators

gathered from industry expert sources. The El Paso Builders Association also puts out a monthly Builder Trevor Turner, Market Intellegence Member Exclusive report detailing new home sales Chair numbers that are not available through the MLS or any other research organization. If you would like to access to a detailed proprietary information be sure to join the El Paso Association of Builders to gain access to this EPAB exclusive market data.

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Jump in mortgage applications for home purchases shows buyers are back Purchase apps were 6.7% higher than a year ago, MBA says By Kathleen Howley Housing Wire Applications for mortgages to purchase homes gained for the sixth consecutive week to a level that was 6.7% higher than a year ago, back when a deadly pandemic wasnâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t interrupting the spring homeÂbuying season. A seasonally adjusted index measuring purchase applications jumped 9% last week, according to a report from the Mortgage Bankers Association. Applications for refinancings fell 0.2% from the prior week, though the level was 176%

higher than a year ago, MBA said. Last weekâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s soÂcalled purchase apps were up 54% from early April when most U.S. states were under lockdown orders to keep people at home in an effort to stem the spread of COVIDÂ19, said Joel Kan, MBAâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting. â&#x20AC;&#x153;The housing market is continuing its path to recovery as various states reopen, leading to more buyers resuming their home search,â&#x20AC;? said Joel Kan, an MBA associate vice president. The surge in purchase demand drove the overall index, measuring both purchase and refi applications, higher by 2.7% on a seasonality adjusted basis from the prior week, the report said. Demand is being driven by a shortage of homes on the market that preceded the epidemic, coupled with mortgage rates near the lowest level ever recorded. The supply of properties on the

market at the end of April was 1.47 million, the National Association of Realtors said last week. Thatâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s the lowest level ever recorded for the month, said Lawrence Yun, NARâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s chief economist. Last week, the average U.S. rate for a 30Âyear fixed mortgage dropped to 3.24%, within one basis point of the allÂtime low set two weeks earlier,

according to Freddie Mac. The share of applications for mortgages backed by the Federal Housing Administration decreased to 11.2% from 11.5% in the week prior, the report said. The share of applications backed by the Veterans Administration fell to 12.4% from 13.4%, the report said.

2020Issue5

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2020Issue5

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2020Issue5

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RISK MANAGEMENT In the business world, knowing when to take action can be the difference between your company’s continual growth or eventual decay. Timing is everything. The coronavirus pandemic has created significant challenges and uncertainty for many, particularly those in the housing industry. While these challenges are substantial, now is not the time to simply stand idle and hope your business is lucky enough to survive. Now is the time to: Be proactive, not reactive. Surveys have shown most successful people want at least 80% of their efforts to be proactive and no more than 20% reactive. In recent months, many business leaders were pressed to be 80% reactive. Functioning this way is neither sustainable or beneficial to a successful business. It is critical now to move back to being predominantly proactive. List the things you can control and adjust your business plan accordingly. This will not only make you productive but also help your mindset. Prepare for some very challenging months ahead. Like with any home building or remodeling project, preparation is very important. When you know a storm is coming, you know what to do to prepare. Similarly, when you know there will be a tough cash-flow quarter, you know you need to shore up as much cash as possible (both spending and collecting). Prioritize. This crisis is unique because what is best for your community (and society as a whole) may not be ideal for your business. Many short-term aspects of your business might need to take the back burner until conditions improve and markets begin to normalize. You need to determine your priorities and identify any potential revenue-generating alternatives that might be needed to keep the doors open. Know your numbers. For a small business to survive a significant economic downturn, it’s critical to intimately know your numbers. Cash flow forecasts, website traffic, and even staff productivity are things that should be monitored constantly. If you’re “flying blind,” you aren’t likely to arrive safely at your destination. Reconnect with former clients and colleagues. Now is the time to be more connected with other people. This can be personal or professional. While your clients may not be in a position to buy a home or commit to a project, many would welcome a virtual check-in or even a simple email. Make a list of at least 50-100 friends, clients, family members and fellow HBA members, and just chip away a few each day. Think and plan. As the pace of your personal and professional life has gotten faster and faster, you probably spend less time refining your business plan. This is an opportunity to think about what you want your business to look like next year. What about five years from now? Ten years? Are you on track, or are there specific changes you can make now — or postcoronavirus — that can help put you in a better position to reach those goals? For more information and best practices on business continuity, visit nahb.org.

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VOL 2020 ISSUE 5

BuildersOutlook PUBLISHED BY THE EL PASO ASSOCIATION OF BUILDERS: NATIONAL, STATE AND LOCAL HOME BUILDING INDUSTRY NEWS

6046 Surety Dr. El Paso, TX 79905 915-778-5387 • www.elpasobuilders.com

■ EXECUTIVE OFFICERS PRESIDENT Edgar Garcia VICE PRESIDENT Sal Masoud SECRETARY Gus Loy EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT Ray Adauto PAST PRESIDENT Sergio Cuartas ASSOCIATES VICE PRESIDENT Luis Rosas ■ COMMITTEE CHAIRS: GOVERNMENT AFFAIRS Sal Masoud GOLF TOURNAMENTS Sam Shallenberger FINANCE COMMITTEE Kathy Carrillo/Treasurer COMMUNITY OUTREACH Angelique Roman LAND USE Sal Masoud MARKET INTELLIGENCE Trevor Turner EDUCATION Patrick Tuttle INDUSTRY PROMOTIONS Ted Escobedo ■ ADVISORY TO THE BOARD Jacob Barde ■ BOARD OF DIRECTORS BUILDERS Jaime Gonzalez, Blue Sage Homes Lee Gillett, Classic American Homes Lydia Mlouhi, Crown Heritage Homes Dan Berry, “D B Innovations,LLC Delton Deal, Deal-2-Deal Eder Gallardo, Edwards Homes Leti Navarrete, Ept Bella Custom Dream Homes Kathy Parry, Hunt Companies Samira Gonzalez, Icon Custom Home Builders Laura Loy, Loyalty Homes Victor Robles, Maravilla Homes JJ Vasquez, Pacifica Homes Trevor Turner, Rassette Homes Fernie Santana, Santana Homes Jacob Barde, Tropicana Homes ASSOCIATES Sandra Lucero, Builders Source John Chaney, Hercules Industries Luis Rosas, HUB International Jorge Herrera, J & H Post Concrete & Tension Patrick Tuttle, Legacy Real Estate Service Andy Quintana, Lone Star Title Frank Estrada, Morrison

Randall Smith, Randall Smith, CPA Angelique Roman, Sierra Title Ted Escobedo, Snappy Publishing Patricia Martinez, Stewart Title Courtney Yeatman, Weststar Bank Kathy Carrillo, Western Heritage Bank Henry Tinajero, Weststar Bank ■ TAB STATE DIRECTORS Randy Bowling, Life Director Sam Shallenberger Gus Loy ■ NATIONAL DIRECTORS Bobby Bowling, IV Demetrio Jimenez

Honorary Life Members Rudy Guel Brad Roe Wayne Grinnell Don Henderson Anna Gill Mark Dyer Sam Shallenberger Past Presidents Committed to Serve Frank Arroyos, John Cullers Edmundo Dena Frank Torres Rudy Guel Edgar Montiel Carlos Villalobos Doug Schwartz Don Rassette Robert Baeza Brad Roe Greg Bowling Randy Bowling Bobby Bowling IV Kelly Sorenson Herschel Stringfield Mark Dyer EPAB Mission Statement: The EL PASO ASSOCIATION OF BUILDERS is committed to strengthening the Building Industry though membership and advocacy. The El Paso Association of Builders is a 501C(6) trade organization. © 2020 Builder’s Outlook is published and distributed for the El Paso Association of Builders by Ted Escobedo, Snappy Publishing, LLC ted@snappypublishing.com El Paso • Texas • 915-820-2800

2020Issue5

BuildersOutlook

SummerMarketOutlook

The Summer Home-Buying Season May Be Much Hotter Than Expected Until recently, the prognosis for the housing market wasn't great. With the economy in a free fall, home sellers swiftly took down their "For Sale" signs and many buyers chose to wait out the coronavirus pandemic. It was like the pause button was pushed on the normally bustling spring home-buying season. REALTOR.COM By Clare Trapasso | May 27, 2020 But as states reopen their economies, the summer real estate market just might turn out to be hotter than anyone was anticipating. For the first time in more than two months, mortgage applications for home purchases were up year over year, rising an impressive 8.7% as buyers raced to lock in record-low mortgage rates in the week ending May 22. This is according to a weekly survey from the Mortgage Bankers Association that spans more than 75% of U.S. residential mortgage applications. The purchase loans did not include mortgage refinances for those who already own homes. Related Articles Coronavirus Is Likely To Upend the Spring Home-Buying Season—and Not Just in the Way You'd Expect In States Loosening Lockdowns, Will Real Estate Markets Rebound? As the Housing Market Shifts to Favor Buyers, This Remains the Biggest Hurdle "This is a bit of a bigger rebound than I expected," says realtor.com® Chief Economist Danielle Hale. "It's a sign that we are going to see a delayed seasonal bump in home sales. There's pent-up demand from people who weren't able to get out in the early part of the spring, and we're seeing that [materialize] now. Find homes for sale on "Normally we see sales really ramp up in March and April," she continues. But amid the pandemic and widespread job losses, many Americans wanted to wait not only until they felt more secure in their jobs but also until they could physically step into the homes they were considering. "We're going to see that ramp up in June and July," says Hale. The recovery may be thanks to folks becoming more comfortable with the idea of embarking on the home-buying process as they've gotten used to taking precautions such as wearing masks and keeping social distance. Plus, more sellers are listing their homes now that cities and states are loosening restrictions. And then there are those ultralow mortgage rates, hitting 3.08% on Wednesday for a 30-year fixed-rate loan, according to Mortgage News Daily. "The low mortgage rates, without a doubt, is helping to entice buyers back into the market," says Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors®. Folks may also look at it as a less volatile investment. "Real estate may be viewed as a safe asset in the upcoming years," says Yun.

Despite the highest unemployment since the Great Depression, buyers are also taking out larger mortgages again. The average loan size was about $340,200 in the week ending May 22. That was up from a low of $315,300 this year in the week ending April 3. While laid-off or vulnerable workers certainly don't have investment on their minds, today's intrepid buyers are better off financially—and are typically still employed, says MBA economist Joel Kan. Before the crisis, purchase applications had been rising about 10% annually. Then they plunged in mid-March as the nation declared a state of emergency, hitting their nadir in early April, with applications down more than 35% year over year. However, as time passed and states began reopening, more would-be homeowners began submitting applications again. In the previous week, applications were down only 1.5% annually in the seven days ending May 15. "The pandemic really hit us right at the time when home-buying activity really ramps up," says Kan. That's resulted in "a late home-buying season." The recovery has been uneven, though,

with the number of purchase applications remaining well below normal levels in the hardest-hit states. In New York, the nation's COVID-19 epicenter, purchase applications were still 16.9% less than a year ago in the week ending May 22. However, that was a big improvement over the previous week, when applications were down 32.8%. In Washington state, applications were 23.1% below the same week last year, while in California they were down only 1.7%. Despite the encouraging national numbers, it's likely too soon to declare a roaring comeback for the housing market. "I'd want to wait a couple of weeks so we know that this is really a trend and not a one-time blip," says Hale. Plus, there is still a severe housing shortage, which has only gotten worse during the public health crisis. Many sellers have pulled their properties off the market or are holding off on listing their abodes until the virus is under control and they can fetch top dollar for their residences. That can make it tough for buyers to find the right properties. "Sellers haven’t come back as quickly to

Showrrooom:

the market as buyers have," says Hale. "Buyers may be surprised by how competitive the market is.” This could result in higher prices this summer, as there will be more folks competing for homes than homes for sale. "Given the strength of this recovery, home prices will probably rise about 4% to 6% in 2020," predicts NAR's Yun. Hale also believes prices could go up and stay that way through the late summer. But if the coronavirus resurges in the fall and the economy continues to falter, prices could flatten or even dip a tiny bit by the end of the year. They're not likely to plunge like they did during the Great Recession, though, as demand is simply too high. "We have so many millennials who are at ages when they want to settle down and they want to buy a home, and that really helps keep the market busy," says Hale. Clare Trapasso is the senior news editor of realtor.com and an adjunct journalism professor at the College of Mount Saint VIncent. She previously wrote for a Financial Times publication, the New York Daily News, and the Associated Press. She is also a licensed real estate agent. Contact her at clare.trapasso@realtor.com. Follow @claretrap

9400 Gateway East El Paso, TX 79907 (915) 593-1301 (800) 356-9546 www w..effb bmi.com

BUILDERS OUTLOOK 2020 ISSUE 5