Builders Outlook2018 issue1 by Ted Escobedo

www.elpasobuilders.com

National, State & Local Building Industry News 2018: Issue 1

5 Housing Trends to Watch for this year Market conditions to influence housing beyond 2019

to a larger potential buyer pool as well as a more limited number of homes available for sale in this price range.

Home shoppers may have it easier in 2018. Inventory constraints of for-sale homes and rising home prices may finally start to ease next year, according to realtor.com®’s 2018 National Housing Forecast. “Next year (2018) will set the stage for a significant inflection point in the housing shortage,” says Javier Vivas, director of economic research for realtor.com®. “Inventory increases will be felt in higher priced segments after spring home buying season, which we expect to take hold and begin to provide relief for buyers and drive sales growth in 2019 and beyond.” Here’s a closer look at realtor.com®’s five housing prediction trends for 2018:

1. Inventory to start increasing: Realtor.com® projects positive yearover-year inventory growth by the fall of 2018—which will be the first time

since 2015. “Inventory declines are expected to decelerate slowly throughout the year, reaching a 4 percent year-over-year decline in March before increasing in early fall, after the peak home-buying months,” realtor.com® notes in its report. The cities expected to see inventory levels recover first are Boston; Detroit; Kansas City, Mo.; Nashville; and Philadelphia. The majority of this growth will be in the mid- to uppertier price points (which includes homes priced above $350,000). On the other hand, recovery in the starter home market likely will linger since levels are “significantly depleted by first time buyers,” realtor.com® notes.

3. Millennials to gain market share: Finally, the long-held predictions may hold true. Millennials may reach 43 percent of home buyers taking out a mortgage by the end of 2018, up from an estimated 40 percent in 2017, realtor.com® projects. The largest cohort of millennials are expected to turn 30 in 2020. "Millennials are a driving force in today's housing market," Vivas says. "They already dominate lower price home mortgage and are getting close to overtaking older generations for mid- and upper-tier mortgages. While financially secure in general, their debt to income ratios have started to increase as they compete for higher priced homes."

4. The South to lead in sales growth: Realtor.com® forecasts that Southern cities will top national averages in home sales growth in 2018. Markets like Tulsa, Okla.; Little Rock, Ark.; Dallas; and Charlotte,

N.C., are expected to be the highest performers. Sales in these markets are predicted to increase by 6 percent or more. Nationally, sales growths are predicted to grow by 2.5 percent. “The majority of this growth can be attributed to healthy building levels combating the housing shortage,” realtor.com® notes in its report. “With inventory growth just around the corner, these areas are primed for sales gains in years to come.”

5. Tax reform: Tax reform could dampen 2018 sales and price forecasts, realtor.com® reports. citing provisions that are likely to decrease incentives for mobility and reduce ownership tax benefits. “On the flip side, some taxpayers, including renters, are likely to see tax cuts. While more disposable income for buyers is positive for housing, the loss of tax benefits for owners could lead to fewer sales and impact prices negatively over time with the largest impact on markets with higher prices and incomes.”

From: realtor.com

2. Price appreciation to slow: Home buyers likely will see home prices moderate in the new year. Realtor.com® forecasts home prices to slow to a 3.2 percent growth year over year nationwide. For comparison, home prices in 2017 posted a 5.5 percent increase. The majority of the slowing price appreciation will be centered in the higher-priced ranges as more inventory becomes available. Entrylevel homes, on the other hand, likely will continue to see price gains due

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Builders Outlook

2018 Issue 1

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2018 Issue 1

President’s Message

Association Leadership ready to work hard in 2018

Builders Outlook Edmundo Dena

President, El Paso Association of Builders

Welcome to 2018. I’m proud to serve another term as President for the EPAB and look forward to doing so. I made the commitment in a time of need for the association and as with other past Presidents we always stand ready when the we are needed. I have often said that it takes a full year in office to get to the point of actually knowing what you’re doing. Well now I have the opportunity to put my knowledge to use and I promise that I will do that. But there is something that I want you to know up front. This job of President isn’t a one person show. It really takes a team and I’m honored that we have a great group of volunteer leaders ready, willing and able to take on the roles. The 2018 Board of Directors are dedicated to work for the benefit of all, and the newest members are anxious to make a difference.

We have an aggressive schedule for the year. Our first board meeting was jammed packed with reports and a bylaw change. We don’t change or modify the bylaws often so doing so was something we have been working on for a while. I want to thank Don Rassette for his leadership and the time and effort he has given to us. It was Don who quietly worked to bring some changes and to update some bylaws that needed to get done. We aren’t done yet as we have some serious work ahead of us. I think that what I want you to know that we are a committed board, a board ready to work. We also want to get more members so we need to work hard to do so. This is important as we are involved in many projects for the good of the industry. We’ve held talks with the City of El Paso, the County of El Paso, and soon we’ll be in

talks with other entities who regulate or influence our industry. I’m excited that Randall Smith is our first guest speaker for the year at our February general meeting. We need to know how best to utilize the new tax codes so we can continue to grow. I also am glad to see all the partnerships we have for upcoming events. Thank you for that. So as we move into 2018 I want to say that it’s important for all of us to be engaged in our association. Come to the meetings, come to the events. Use the association. Most of all let’s have a great 2018.

Executive’s Message Ray Adauto, executive Vice President ePAB

new year, new goals. The work of the association got rolling with the first board meeting of the year. lot’s of processes to get working through but none more important than getting the bylaws updated. The Board approved the move to incorporate the treasurer position out of the ladder and into a more permanent professional position coming out of the finance committee and approved by the executive. our new treasurer is Kathy Carrillo who will be working that position. Thanks to the board, the executive

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Builders Outlook

2018 Issue 1

And we are off and running at EPAB

and to Kathy for making this happen. The annual trip to the international builder’s show is something we look forward to. The trip to orlando is never easy and this year that trip was complicated with bad weather, delays and cancellations. My trip was supposed to be a no brainer. Fly to Houston, grab a bite for lunch, fly to orlando. Then the captain changed that for me and the others on board. First let me say thanks to the ground crew for noticing the leak of hydraulic fluid while we were on the tarmac. Changing planes, flight plans, and all that goes with that is better on the ground that while landing. The folks at Southwest Airlines were put in a no win position but they did the best they could. i learned a few lessons during the experience. First of all, there is nothing in your control

except your attitude. Here’s a life lesson for you. During an experience like this you are not the one in control except that. There were some silly examples of rudeness especially with a lady who was not a part of our flight but rather a flight to Austin. She didn’t hear the announcements (and yes there were at least three that i heard) that the gate for the flight to Austin had moved. Well apparently she didn’t and the flight left without her. Boy did she scream bloody murder! Had i been behind the desk i would have told her to go to American or greyhound and have a nice day. Clearly her fault, considering over 110 other passengers got on board the flight and maybe her luggage. Don’t know how the rest of her day went but then there’s always some Forrest gumpism for people like this.

i was able to see some of our members who attended the show. looks like everyone had a good review, but nothing is better than las Vegas for these types of gatherings. We’ll be looking into doing a board meeting at that show if we can. great show, lots to see and some cool things. our Parade of Homes is going full bang. nine builders will present April 7-15 in a jam packed week of new homes at Artcraft and Westside Drive. My thanks to Southwest land for their cooperation in bringing this show to fruition. Make plans to attend our Preview Party on Friday April 6. For a list of upcoming events please look on our coming events section or visit elpasobuilders.com

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National Builder News

2018 Issue 1

Remodeling Market Indicators Hit High

n The National Association of Home Builders’ (NAHB) Remodeling Market Index (RMI) posted a reading of 60 in the fourth quarter of 2017, up three points from the previous quarter and only the second time since 2001 the reading has reached 60. For 19 consecutive quarters, the RMI has been at or above 50, which indicates that more remodelers report market activity is higher compared to the prior quarter than report it is lower. The overall RMI averages ratings of current remodeling activity with indicators of future remodeling activity. “A booming stock market and low unemployment continue to fuel consumers’ investment in their homes,” said NAHB Remodelers Chair Joanne Theunissen, CGP, CGR, a remodeler from Mt. Pleasant, Mich. “Natural disaster-related repairs also caused strong demand for maintenance and repair projects.” Current market conditions increased four points from the third quarter of 2017 to 60. Among its three major components, major additions and alterations jumped seven points to 60, minor additions and alterations increased three points to 59, and the home maintenance and repair component rose three points to 61. The future market indicators index rose one point from the previous quarter to 59. Calls for bids decreased two points to 56, amount of work committed for the next three months rose two points to 58, the backlog of remodeling jobs gained a significant six points to 66 and appointments for proposals fell two points to 57. “At a high of 60, the RMI is consistent with the strong growth in home improvement spending in 2017,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “However, the surge in the backlog of remodeling jobs likely reflects supply-side challenges remodelers are facing in the form of skilled labor shortages and rising material prices.”

Builder Confidence Remains Strong

n Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes dropped two points to a level of 72 in January on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) after reaching an 18-year high in December 2017. “Builders are confident that changes to the tax code will promote the small business sector and boost broader economic growth,” said NAHB Chairman Randy Noel, a custom home builder from LaPlace, La. “Our members are excited about the year ahead, even as they continue to face building material price increases and shortages of labor and lots.” “The HMI gauge of future sales expectations has remained in the 70s, a sign that housing demand should continue to grow in 2018,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “As the overall economy strengthens, owner-occupied household formation increases and the supply of existing home inventory tightens, we can expect the single-family housing market to make further gains this year.” Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for 30 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor. The three HMI components registered relatively minor losses in January. The index gauging current sales conditions dropped one point to 79, the component charting sales expectations in the next six months fell a single point to 78, and the index measuring buyer traffic fell four points to 54. Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the West rose two points to 81, the South increased one point to 73, the Midwest inched up a single point to 70 and Northeast climbed five points to 59.

Builders Outlook

2018 Issue 1

Campaign Raises Safety Awareness Among Home Builders, Remodelers The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) launched Safety 365, a new member and public awareness campaign designed to ensure that building industry professionals have the information and resources to help keep construction workers safe and help minimize accidents, injuries and deaths. The initiative is designed to make construction safety a priority, every day, 365 days a year. “Our members realize the importance of jobsite safety because we know that our employees have families to return home to. We want to keep these workers safe from accidents and injuries,” said NAHB Chairman Randy Noel, a home builder and developer from La Place, La. “Safety 365 is an important initiative that will keep these efforts at the forefront of our industry.” The campaign is a joint effort of the NAHB Construction Safety Committee and Builders Mutual Insurance Co., which has supported NAHB’s workplace safety efforts since it worked with the association in 2006 to launch the SAFE awards, NAHB’s popular annual program honoring workplace safety efforts and highlighting innovative products and solutions.

Through posts on NAHBNow, the association’s blog; newsletter stories; tweets and other efforts, the Safety 365 campaign will highlight a different aspect of construction workplace safety each month and also promote safety off the job, including materials to help keep home owners safe when they’re working on DIY projects. “Builders Mutual is thrilled to be a part of such a critical initiative that looks to protect the health and wellbeing of the employees that build the American dream each and every day,” said Mike Gerber, senior vice president and chief marketing officer for Builders Mutual Insurance Co. “If the building industry continues to work together to raise the awareness of safety on the job-site, then home builders and their employees are better positioned for long-term success.” The campaign will align with NAHB’s vast array of educational resources, safety training materials, and news updates to help educate employers and workers on the various safety and health hazards the industry faces on the jobsite, and to better understand and comply with Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) requirements.

2018 Issue 1

Economic Forescast

Elliot Eisenberg Economic & Policy Blog

2018: Like 2017 But Slightly Better

The combination of solid, widespread global growth; strong labor markets; low inflation; improving commodity prices; a slightly weaker dollar; and continued easy monetary policy from most central banks sets the stage for a good year. Moreover, the recently passed front-loaded tax cuts here in the US will help by adding a pleasant tailwind to the domestic economy. The possibility of increases in infrastructure and defense spending, along with the continued deregulatory efforts of the Trump administration, make the domestic economic landscape heading into 2018 as strong as it has been since the end of the Great Recession. However, there are also economic headwinds. The fear of inflation could spook the Federal Reserve to raise rates more rapidly than expected, which would slow growth and unsettle financial markets. A large confidenceshattering drop in the stock market, for any number of reasons, might hurt the economy. With the now low tax rate on repatriated earnings, American firms might bring back substantial profits from abroad, and in the process, boost the dollar, which will hurt manufacturing activity. Lastly, geopolitical problems always lurk and could easily have negative growth implications. With all this in mind, I expect fullyear 2018 GDP to come in at 2.6%, slightly higher than the 2.3% growth experienced last year and the 2.1% average rate of growth since the end of the Great Recession. Headline inflation looks to pick up from roughly 2% to 2.3% in 2018, while core inflation (which excludes food and energy) will edge up only slightly. Because of the slow rise in core inflation, the Federal Reserve will probably have the luxury of time to raise the federal funds rate from where it is now, at 1.375%, to 2.125% by yearâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s end, with a quarterpoint rate increase roughly every three or four months with the first one in March.

Builders Outlook

Turning our attention to the labor market, I expect net new monthly job growth to average 150,000/month, which, while down from 167,000/month in 2017, is excellent given that we are late in the business cycle and few potential workers remain on the sidelines. The unemployment rate will fall from 4.1% today to 3.6% or even 3.5% by year end, a rate not seen since the late 1960s! As the labor market tightens, nominal wage growth should increase in 2018, with average annual wage increases rising from 2.4% to 2.75% and as much as 3% by the end of the year: a healthy rise. Because of faster GDP growth and the falling unemployment rate, 10-year Treasuries will end 2018 at 2.75%, and the rate on 30-year mortgages will be at or near 4.40%. However, continued easing of credit conditions and rising consumer spending due to continued strong employment growth and better wage growth will keep the economy and housing market on track. Despite passage of the new tax bill, which is likely to modestly slow home sales and house price appreciation in some high-cost areas because of the reduced benefits of homeownership, housing starts should increase by about 7%, to 1.29 million. Single-family starts will likely total 930,000, up from 850,000, while multifamily starts should flatline at about 360,000. New and existing home sales should collectively rise by about 3% and end the year at 6.35 million, with mortgage purchase volume advancing by $100 billion, and refinance activity falling by about $200 billion due to the rise in mortgage rates. Housing inventories will, regrettably, remain unchanged, and combined with limited new home building, home prices will rise by 5%. Motor vehicle sales will slip to 16.5 million from 17.1 million and the chances of a recession in 2018 is low given the very solid global economic conditions that currently prevail. I peg the chances of a recession in 2018 at just 15%.

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EPAB ON THE SCENE

Local members attend IBS Orlando

The text message was interesting. It said “heading to Orlando for the show”. It was from one of our associate members, someone who hadn’t attended the big industry show ever. Without revealing who that message came from I’m glad to report that they had a great time at the show, as did some other nearly 70,000 visitors. The contingent from El Paso was good considering it’s a long trip that takes you two time zones to cross and then all the activity at the city that normally hosts little mickeys and mini’s, a wizard or two and of course other attractions. Orlando is one busy hub and adding 70,000 visitors for one event is taxing on everyone and everybody. The NAHB yearly meeting and show starts several days before the show floor opens. There are education courses, talks, networking events and caucuses going on. It is one reason that the annual event is so popular and important. The Texas Association of Builders held such a caucus and brought the membership up to date on issues that NAHB is working on. This year the opening ceremony included special guest Terry Bradshaw who talked about business, himself and the antics of doing what and who he does it with. There were literally hundreds of displays ranging from 10 x 10 booths to 6000 square feet displays from the likes of GE, LG, Samsung and other multinational companies. There was a large contingent from China again and they continue to look at the U. S. housing market as a great place to be. Traditional suppliers were joined by some unusual displays and that’s what makes a trade show like this so fascinating. “I know we all had our favorite things to see but the one thing you take away from here is the enormity

of the show” said Henry Tinajero from WestStar Bank. He was joined in that by Laura Loy who said that there was too much to see and not enough time to see it all. “I can tell those members who haven’t been to the show that they need

to come, they need to see this, and they just might find something cool for their business,” she said. Although not all of the members who went were able to get together while at the show the contingent in the picture did

for this group shot. We are looking forward to next year in Las Vegas. Make plans to attend.

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Mortgage & Banking

•

Mortgage rates are surging due to the jump in U.S. bond yields.

• "Some lenders will be at 4.5 percent," says Matthew Graham of Mortgage News Daily.

Mortgage rates jump to highest in 4 years, ominous sign for spring housing Builders Outlook

2018 Issue 1

increase in home prices, but it has also given borrowers a new sense of normal. Both will hurt affordability this spring on several fronts. "Today is one more reason for Realtors and buyers to move up their spring schedule," said Chris Kopec, a mortgage loan consultant at Chicagobased Lakeside Bank. The housing market is already facing a supply crisis, with demand substantially higher than the supply of homes for sale. Higher mortgage rates will exacerbate that problem because most current homeowners have likely refinanced to rates in the 3 percent range over the past few years and will be reluctant to give those rates up, either to downsize or upsize to a new home. Hence, fewer new listings.\ For first-time buyers, even a quarter point difference in mortgage rates could price them out of the type of home they're looking to buy. Today's buyers

are saving less, due to high levels of student debt and high rent rates. Confidence in the current economy is driving spending even higher and savings even lower. "With spending rising faster, what also drove spending was credit card debt as the US savings rate is down to just 2.4 percent in December from 2.5 percent in November and 3 percent in October. September 2005 was the last time it was this low," Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer with Bleakley Advisory Group, wrote in a note to clients. "Lower taxes and higher wages couldn't have come at a better time for the average consumer, but some of that will likely go towards paying down some of the accumulated debt." Wages may be growing, but the rate is nowhere near the now-nearly 7 percent annual home price growth. Price gains are highest on the lower end of the housing market, where

• Higher mortgage rates, combined with higher home prices, will make this spring housing market even more challenging.

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The average rate on the popular 30year fixed started the year right around 4 percent but then began to climb on positive news in the U.S. economy, solid company earnings reports and a shift in foreign central bank policies which appear to now be following the Federal Reserve's tightening of monetary policy. The rate was at 4.28 percent by the end of last week. "Apart from central banks, there's a ton of bond market supply coming down the pike due to infrastructure and tax bill spending," Graham said. That new supply will send yields and, consequently, mortgage rates higher. Mortgage rates jump to the highest point in 4 years, an ominous sign for spring housing Mortgage rates jump to the highest point in 4 years, an ominous sign for spring housing A huge sell-off in the bond market is about to make buying a home more expensive. Mortgage rates, which loosely follow the yield on the 10-year Treasury, have been rising for the past few weeks, but are seeing their biggest move higher Monday. "Bottom line, rate sheets are going to be ugly this morning," wrote Matthew Graham, chief operating officer of Mortgage News Daily. "Some lenders will be at 4.5 percent on their best-casescenario 30-year fixed quotes."

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Mortgage rates jump to the highest point in 4 years, an ominous sign for spring housing A huge sell-off in the bond market is about to make buying a home more expensive. Mortgage rates, which loosely follow the yield on the 10-year Treasury, have been rising for the past few weeks, but are seeing their biggest move higher Monday. "Bottom line, rate sheets are going to be ugly this morning," wrote Matthew Graham, chief operating officer of Mortgage News Daily. "Some lenders will be at 4.5 percent on their best-casescenario 30-year fixed quotes."

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2018 Issue 1

Builders Outlook

nahb.org/MA

Builders Outlook

EPAB Membership Builder members as of January 31, 2018

AT Architectural Designs Elsa Taracena Accent Homes Mark Dyer Bain Construction Scott Bain Bella Vista Custom Homes, Inc. Edgar Garcia BIC Homes Antonio Cervantes

Blue Star Construction, LLC. Carlos Villasana Carefree Homes Richard Aguilar Casas De Leon, LLC Nick Bombach Classic American Homes Priscilla Hernandez Crown Heritage Homes Lydia Mlouhi Cullers & Caldwell Builders John Cullers Cullers Homes Jason R. Cullers D. R. Horton Homes Jaime Gonzalez Dawco Home Builders Walter O. Lujan Deal-2-Deal Homes dba Deal-2-Deal,LLC Delton Deal Del Rio Engineering, Inc. Sal Masoud Diamond Homes, LLC Valerie Baquera Donald Ward Builder, Inc. Donald Ward E. Valencia Land Development LLC Eddie Valencia Edward's Homes, Inc. Eduardo Fernandez EPT Bella Custom Dream Homes Leti & Javier Navarrete EPT Land Communities David Bogas Everest Homes Edmundo Dena, Jr. Fortune Custom Homes Javier Andrade Gaddy Construction Charles Gaddy GMF Custom Homes, LP Frank Torres Guel Construction Rudy Guel Hakes Brothers LLC Chris Hakes Hanson Asset Management, LP Russell Hanson Homes by Design Leslie Driggers Hoard Hunt Communities, LLC Kathy Parry Icon Custom Home Builder, LLC. Carlos Garcia Industrial Realty Group Incorporated Brent D. Harris JER Custom Homes, LLC Jorge E. Rodriguez Kayton Lee Residential, Inc. Brianna Barnes LMJ Construction Co., LLC Mike Lopez Lloyd Hamilton Construction Lloyd Hamnilton III Loyalty Homes Gustavo Loy M A Builders & Design, LLC Mustafa Ali Metro Homes, Inc. Fernando Torres, Judith Arrunada, Millennium Homes Dan Ruth Pacifica Homes, Inc. Juan Jose Vasquez Palace Homes, Inc. Robert Diaz Palo Verde Homes Edgar Montiel Pointe Homes Carlos Villalobos Porter Homes Albert Porter R.C. Baeza & Associates Robert C. Baeza R.E. Welch Contractor Gordon Welch Rassette Homes, Inc. Donald Rassette

2018 Issue 1

Updated every month, here is a list of the 2018 EPAB Membership. Remember to please do buinsess with fellow members.

Santana Custom Homes Fernando Santana Southwest Land Development Serv. Doug Schwartz The Heritage Group David Bingham Trejo Construction Co. Juan Trejo Tropicana Building Corp. Bobby Bowling IV Tropicana Development Greg Bowling Tropicana Homes Randy Bowling Tropicana Properties Demetrio Jimenez Villagi Homes, LLC Kristi Eddings Will Harvey Development Will S. Harvey Winton/Flair Homes Herschel Stringfield Associate Members as of January 31, 2018 2-10 Home Buyers Warranty Jeanine Jones 84 Lumber Ernie Chavez 915 Siteworks, LLC Dan Guevara ABC Supply Co., Inc. Larry Eck Acme Brick Company Vanessa Rocha; Steve Bush Adams Moulding & Lumber Tom Swahlen Area Iron & Steel Works, Inc. Fred L. Edmonston Jr. Atrium Homes Ricardo Bocardo Jr. Bank of Texas Ray Owen Barnett & Bennett Construction Ben Trzyna Baron Supply David Trammell Barragan & Associates Benito Barragan Barrett Airworks Alexandro Castro Beasley, Mitchell & Co., LLP Brad Beasley BMC Select Jaeson Iovinella Boise Cascade Mike Flores Border Solar Javier Ruiz Builders Source Appliance Gallery Kathy Rose, Sandra Lucero C. D. Lee/Britton Insurance & Bonding Anthony Landavazo; Lisa Daniels Cabinet Masters Mike Robles Cardel Design Group Lorraine Huit Casa Ford & Casa Nissan Luke Lowenfield CEA Engineering Group Jorge L. Azcarate Central Texas Metal Roofing Supply Co.,Inc. Ben Garza, III Centricity Brent R. Morgan Chaparral Materials, Inc. Leroy Trujillo City Bank Texas Bob Kotarski City Lights Thomas Brown Cognent, Inc. Martin Paredes Commercial Insurance Brokers, Inc. Ken Foster Conde, Inc. Conrad Conde Copenhagen Imports Flemming Carlsen CQC Testing and Engineering, LLC Jaime Rojas Dal-Tile Joseph Cepeda Delek US dba 7 Eleven Sonja Scanlan Demcon Disposal Management, LLC Maria Elena (Nena) Gomez Desert Quest Plumbing Hector Gonzalez Dunn Edwards Paints Nathan Gordon

Dorney Security John Dorney DWS Building Supply Sabrina Voorhies E.F. Building Materials, Inc. Efren Fraire Eagle Roofing Products Scott Aguilar El Paso Building Materials Ken Wade El Paso Disposal Irma Parsons El Paso Mortgage Bankers Association Gilbert Pedregon El Paso Star Ready-Mix Concrete Inc. David Armendariz El Paso Times Jose Molina El Paso Truss Luis Mendiola El Paso Winnelson Rene Goldfien Ferguson Enterprises Inc. Albert Holguin First American Bank Luis Sauceda

First Light Federal Credit Union Lorenzo Revelez First National 1870 Haley Merritt Firth, Johnston, Bunn & Kerr Jay Kerr Foxworth Galbraith Lumber Dan Villarreal Franklin Building Materials Ricardo Aguilar; Cristina Sheldon G2 Ram Electric Luis Cano GCC Sun City Materials, LLC Antonio “Tony” Chavez GECU- Greater El Paso Credit Union Brenda Aguirre Greater El Paso Chamber of Commerce GEPAR-Greater El Paso Assoc. of Realtors Jason Sanchez Hardware Specialties Jeff R. Paxton Harris Real Estate Group Lane Harris Haskins Electric Charles B. Haskins, Jr. Home of Texas Mark Smiley Home Performance Testing Fernando Garcia/Ray Gonzales HUB International Luis Rosas Insight Mortgage Company Shawn Weeks Interceramic Tile & Stone Gallery David Holguin Inter National Bank Natalie Ojeda J & H Concrete & Post Tension Jorge Herrera James L. Ellis, CPA, PC Jim Ellis Jimmy Garza Emergency Water Removal Veronica Buchanan Jobe Materials, LP Charlie Tellez Joe Bernal Insurance & Financial Services, Inc. Joe M. Bernal L & P Building Supply Denise McConnell Legacy Real Estate Services TTI Prop. Management. Patrick Tuttle Lennox Industrie Sharon Horton Lone Star Title Co. of El Paso Sam Trimble Love Engineering, Inc. Montez Love Majestic Realtors Patti Musshorn MAK Roofing & Construction Felix Vizarreta Masco Contract Services dba Gale Insulation Tom Harmon McCoy's Building Supplies Julie Reyes Mechanical Technologies Jaime Zubiate Merrill Lynch Thomas (Tommy) Gabriel Mingo’s Painting & Remodeling Erik Chavarria

Mini Concrete Materials Joe Soto Morrison Supply Sam Shallenberger MTI Ready Mix, Inc. Tony Mullen New American Funding Brenda Trillo New Era Foam George Tollen Passage Supply John Chaney Patriot Mortgage Randy Bowling Pella Windows Jason Bates Performance Glass & Aluminum Hector Hernandez Pioneer Bank Kathy Carrillo Prewire of El Paso, Inc. Steven Drury PRIDE Ascend Dr. Lonny Wright Post Tension Dennis Moore Powerfoam Insulation: Metlspan NCI Group, Inc. Arnie Pederson Randall Smith, CPA Randall Smith Real Estate Weekly Newspaper Riley Stephens Rebath of El Paso/Las Cruces Lisa Walling Remcon Self Storage Will Harvey

Richman Group Affordable Housing Corp. Kevin Hoffman Rocky Mountain Mortgage Company Dean Inniss Roe, Brad Bradley Roe Rudolph Chevrolet Mike Ruffin Saldivar Electric, Inc. Martin A. Saldivar

Sarabias Blue Sanitation Monica Brown SSenercon Javier Ruiz Sherwin Williams Paint Cruz Lopez Sierra Title Company/Lawyers Title Angelique Roman Simpson Strong-Tie Company, Inc. Ken Donham Snappy Publishing, LLC Ted Escobedo Solar Smart Living Larry Perea Southwest Décor El Paso Corporation Chris Matthews Spectrum Technologies Miled Daou Stewart Title of El Paso Cindy Bilbe StrucSure Home Warranty Scott Whisenant Su Casa Magazine Bob Skolnick Sun City Winnelson Dean Moore Texas Gas Services Mica Short Texas Title Company Steve Raney TFCU Yolie Melendez-Estrada The Dorian Group/Ocean Gallery USA Miguel Angel Mercado The Home Systems Heating & Cooling, Inc. Jesus Chain Trane Residential Solutions Robert Meske/ Kathleen Chacon TRE & Associates Linda Troncoso Trim Team Juan & Kris Hernandez USA General Contractors Javier Olmos Vision Consultants, Inc. Kelly Sorenson WestStar Home Loans Cinco Houghton

WestStar Bank David Osborn WestStar Title Janette Coon

2018 Issue1

JFEB

MAR APR MAY JUNE

Builders Outlook

2018 Calendar of Events

FEBRUARY 8,2018

BOARD/GENERAL MTG.

11:00 BOARD 12:00 GENERAL MEETING E L PA S O C LU B

MARCH 8, 2018 MARCH 14, 2018 MARCH 2123

BOARD MEETING SPEED SELLING TAB MEETING

12:00 NOON EPAB OFFICE EPAB OFFICE AUSTIN, TX

APRIL 615 APRIL 12, 2018

PARADE OF HOMES BOARD/GENERAL MEETING

APRIL 18, 2018 APRIL APRIL 28, 2018

GOLF TOURNAMENT YOUNG DESIGNERS JUDGING FIRST HOME SATURDAY

ARTCRAFT ESTATES 11:00 BOARD 12:00 GENERAL MEETING E L PA S O C LU B BUTTERFIELD TRAIL EPAB OFFICE BASSETT PLACE

MAY 10, 2018 MAY 16, 2018 MAY, 2018

BOARD MEETING BOWLING EVENT IDEA AWARDS

EPAB OFFICE

JUNE JUNE 14, 2018

SPEED SELLING BOARD/GENERAL MEETING

JUNE 15, 2018

CASINO NIGHT

EPAB OFFICE 11:00 BOARD 12:00 GENERAL MEETING E L PA S O C LU B EPAB OFFICE

Kudos Congratulations to Luis Rosas, vice president of HUB International, who was recently named as the 2017 Agent of the Year. The James F. Elliott Award. Rosas has been a Board Director for the EPAB for several years. He is cochair of the 2018 Spring Golf Tournament. Congratulations Luis. Well done!

Condolences Heartfelt condolences to Edmuno Dena on the loss of his aunt Maria Templin.

Advertise your business to the home building industry OBuutlildoeorsk Widely distributed throughout the city and available to readers online, the Builders Outlook is an important advertising medium for any business that want to reach this valuable market. Call Margaret: 915-778-5387

www.elpa

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ers.com

teady empl demand, oyment and econ affordable omic mortgage home price growth, pentup rates will gradual s and attrac keep upwa headwinds rd trend in 2016 the housing mark tive et on a and labor related to short . However, persi ages and stent , along with availability impeding rising mate a of to economismore robust recov rials prices are lots ery, acco participate ts who rding d in a Natio of Home nal Asso Builders ciation (NAHB) Constructi Fall on Forec astWebina r.

National,

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Industry News 2015: Issue 10

2016: Ho us Recovery ing to pick up steam amid challeng es

February 2017 •

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“This recover y is all about NAHB Chief jobs,” said people can Economist David they have, get good Crowe. incomes “If the more , the housing jobs that pay about purchas comfortable to move market will decent forward.” And while ing a new home.” they feel continue The good mortgag expecte news, Crowe e interest d to total U.S. rates are added, is averaging rise over the near-ter employm that well above ent of 142 4.5 percent m, percent Single-Family in 2016 in that occurrethe previous peak million is now Continu expecte 2017, Crowe said and 5.5 of 138 million d in 2008. Turning d to have The one to the forecases to Post Gains an impact this is not recovery. caveat is projectin t, NAHB been concent “As the g 719,000 that job is econom on the housing and wage 2015, up single-fa sector, which rated heavily growth has growth should y gets better, mily starts 11 percent in the service even though produce keep pace. job than goods tends to pay d last year. from the 647,000 in mortgag lower wages will still So production producing e rates Single-family units be low by Meanwh jobs. is projecte historica will rise, they very affordab addition l standar doubled ile, home equity al 27 percent d to increase le.” ds and since has an units. in 2016 $12.5 trillion. 2011 and now nearly to 914,000 Supply stands at On the multifam Headwi “The single ily side, 354,000 Crowe noted nds biggest people’s production units last asset in several portfolio hinderin 331,000 year, slightly ran at factors is the home most g a more said Crowe. level that robust recoverthat are NAHB survey level of they own,” is conside above the “That’s importa primary product y. Citing of its purchas ion. Multifam red a normal builders expecte ers of new nt because the sellers of reported members, 13 percent an same d to rise homes are the cost existing labor was 9 percent ily starts are this year concern of and homes. to 387,000 a and post The more the that concern significant problemavailability of that ratio shot s regarding lots decline equity to 378,000 a modest 3 percent units in 2011 up jumped in to 2011 and 58 percent Concern About one-fifth units to 61 percent and Residen s over building in 2014. tial remode in 2016. at 58 percent in 2014. of builders forecasted ling activity materials shared the among builders stood from 33 is over last to increase 6.8 percent in 2014, percent year and in 2011. up No doubt percent rise an addition in 2015 in 2016. ideas that that the home al 6.1 brought really made that much the showca together se home of actually more interesting. Continu The process ed Page setting up piecing the walls 6 together, the floor The annual a wall or and Fall Home in the ceiling the all that goes brought and the faint thousan on is not someth hearted. ds of people Garden show Judson ing Habitat “We were Williams into the for Conven asked by for show kicked tion could from Humanity to donate people were off October 9. Center as the this build, what we could,” Torres The throngs and I’m presented greeted by a proud of that we the showca told the Outlook very produce show compliments nicely . The rest waiting for se was quickly r Show of the of Technol taken to Antonio. ogy out a lot parts that some of the frame of San could be The show waste. used so and other Overall to not go showcase featured a spectac a very beautifu showcase to home by Metro Homes. l green new builder ular for years home that will continue member The design to come. was made to give of the display The Fall site in orderto be partially constru Home and show of Garden cted off its established to meet the time some time,” center was kind this year since was the only lines that even for the show. taken over the Sam Shallen said Associates Bowling “I have to with that for the Men’scivic Chairma Champi tell hustled addition and exhibito berger. “We had n to make al time we you center turned onship (ABC). bring to sure we new rs and that product really The civic into a have.” had complet to was a nice displays what’s the consumer e with state large bowling CTU Metro show,” said Fernanda great because thing to hot in the alley The present run into of the art I know world of said. situation staged the Homes. Beautifu o Torres of lanes. “We ing attractio walls,” Santos Wizard, s like this center or l and elegant n was Brian Santos when the halls we Our sincere the show house became ly demons civic that can use are the favorite who did the Wall winning thanks to trations and all the the fit several Best of efforts. of during CTU “I really of Show our shows,” said only ones Show for “We love coming the three day Acosta Realsuppliers and the Metro Homes Technol the off our modelsare excited to so many event. ogy. “We Tommy Mantini flexible but to El Paso be able folks of gratitud Estate. We also staff of David have to to show estate agents to the public the Outlook for the first time,” and seeing be e we would then again I know owe a and to the civic center to the exhibito . “The El have pent market and because we’re Brian told that this real rs who filleddebt Builders showed Paso Associa new to the we think has things for with good product during this up demand and year the product we tion other associa helped me get have the visitor it to s and lots event.” What impress other gigs of Home and to see. continue offer the consum a very good tions recomm ed many Our Spring of with aisles and d. er,” Torres endation,” and I’m grateful was 11-13, 2016.Garden Show is for the who has he continue on comfortablythe amount of roomthe carpeted authored reach potentiaDon’t miss this for March d. Santos, move to and several was one around. opportunity is an inventor l custome “how Technol of the nicest “I thought to rs. Visit ogy today compan and innovato to” books shows we’ve this Show ies at www.sh r for several owtechn relationship including Home had in ology.co Depot. information “My Depot and with Rubber Maid on the Springm to get Lowes is and Home show. really a great thing to See More Photos Page 8

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Joint Meeting unites industry

When Gilbert Pedregon approached the El Paso Association of Builders about hosting a meeting it wasn’t your average meeting idea. Gilbert told Ray that it would be “a meeting of the industry” to get to know each other and in doing so begin the process of working together on issues. The plan included inviting the Greater El Paso Association of Realtors (GEPAR), HREP, the Hispanic Real Estate Professionals association, and others. Gilbert’s idea came true in January as the meeting was held at the Fort Bliss Underwood golf course. The guest speaker was Michael Collins, Regional Director for MGIC and a survivor of the twin tower 9-1-1 attack. At that time Mike was just starting

January Board Meeting

The first board meeting of the year was held on January 18 at the EPAB office. The meeting was the initial gathering for the new board. In the meeting the board introduced themselves to each other and to announce the new committees that President Edmundo Dena has formed. The bylaws change was made to the ladder position, moving the Secretary Treasurer position to Secretary and make the treasurer position a part of the Finance Committee. The move is similar to the way the Texas Association of Builders leadership is set up. The proposal passed unanimously and is now incorporated into the bylaws. Also presenting were Angelique Roman and Brenda Aguirre for the Community Outreach committee. Projects that the association can be done were mentioned and support given to the effort. Kelly Sorenson heads up Builders Education and she announced that the committee would present as needed. The next meeting of the Board will take place February 8 at 11 am at the El Paso Club.

Builders Outlook training as a stock broker and was in day two of that training. His story, sometime emotional from the memories it triggered, was a story of courage, determination and living. The EPAB was well represented by the executive leadership. President Edmundo Dena, VP Sergio Cuartas, Secretary Edgar Garcia and past President Don Rassette. All four called the gathering a good thing. “I think that more meetings like this are good for the builders as we get to represent our association in an industry wide event,” Dena said.

2018 Issue 1

Builders Outlook

2018 Issue 1

6046 Surety Dr. El Paso, TX 79905 915-778-5387 â&#x20AC;˘ Fax: 915-772-3038

â&#x2013; ExEcuTivE OFFicERS PRESiDENT Edmundo Dena vicE PRESiDENT Sergio Cuartas SEcRETARY Edgar Garcia ExEcuTivE vicE PRESiDENT Ray Adauto PAST PRESiDENT Don Rassette â&#x2013; cOMMiTTEE cHAiRS Membership Ted Escobedo Patrick Tuttle

Sandra Lucero, Builders Source Ted Escobedo, Snappy Publishing Jorge Herrera, J&H Post Concrete & Post Tension Angelique Roman, Sierra Title Patrick Tuttle, Legacy Real Estate Sam Trimble, Lone Star Title Patricia Martinez, Stewart Title Randall Smith, Randall Smith, CPA

772-7495

â&#x2013; TABâ&#x20AC;&#x2C6;STATE DiREcTORS Randy Bowling - Life Director Sam Shallenberger Edmundo Dena

â&#x2013; NATiONAL DiREcTORS Bobby Bowling, IV Demetrio Jimenez Leslie Driggers Hoard -Alternate Antonio Cervantes - Alternate

Finance committee Kathy Carrillo/Treasurer Henry Tinajero

Honorary Life Members Mark Dyer Wayne Grinnell Don Henderson Anna Gill Brad Roe Rudy Guel

Community Outreach Angelique Roman Brenda Aguirre Patricia Martinez

Land Use Council Sal Masoud

Education Kelly Sorenson Delton Deal

â&#x2013; ADviSORYâ&#x20AC;&#x2C6;TOâ&#x20AC;&#x2C6;THE BOARD Jay Kerr, Firth, Johnston, Bunn & Kerr

â&#x2013; BOARDâ&#x20AC;&#x2C6;OFâ&#x20AC;&#x2C6;DiREcTORS Builders: Delton Deal, Deal 2 Deal J.J. Vasquez, Pacifica Homes Leti Navarrete, Bella Custom Dream Homes Bud Foster, Southwest Land Development Kathy Parry, HUNT Communities Lee Gillett, Classic American Laura Loy, Loyalty Homes Walter Lujan, Dawco Homes Fernando Torres, Metro Homes Leslie Driggers Hoard, Homes by Design Carlos Garcia, ICON Custom Sal Masoud, Del Rio Development Fernando Santana, Santana Custom Homes Chris Hakes, Hakes Brothers Associates: Joe Bernal, Joe Bernal Insurance Henry Tinajero, WestStar Bank Kathy Carillo, Pioneer Bank John Chaney, Passage Supply Luis Rosas, HUB International Brenda Aguirre, GECU Mortgage

2017 Member Of The Year â&#x20AC;&#x2C6; â&#x20AC;&#x2C6; â&#x20AC;&#x2C6; Donâ&#x20AC;&#x2C6;Rassette Rassette Homes

Past Presidents committed to Serve Edmundo Dena Edgar Montiel Frank Torres Frank Arroyos Greg Bowling Randy Bowling Bobby Bowling Iv Doug Schwartz John Cullers Robert Baeza Mark Dyer Kelly Sorenson Rudy Guel Brad Roe Herschel Stringfield Bob Bowling Iii Pat Woods

EPAB Mission Statement: The El Paso Association of Builders is a federated professional organization representing the home building industry, committed to enhancing the quality of life in our community by providing affordable homes of excellence and value. The El Paso Association of Builders is a 501C(6) trade organization. ÂŠ 2017 Builderâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Outlook is published and distributed for the El Paso Association of Builders by Ted Escobedo, Snappy Publishing, LLC ted@snappypublishing.com El Paso â&#x20AC;˘ Texas â&#x20AC;˘ 915-820-2800

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