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Scores are in:
2014: issue 4
So which states soared and which tanked?
Top improving states and metros Freddie Mac: Over half of metros continue to improve Brena Swanson @ HousingWire.com The housing market is recovering, and although it is at a slower pace than last month, more than half of the top 50 metro areas continue to record improving trends. According to Freddie Mac’s newest housing metric, the national February Multi-Indicator Market Index value stands at -3.11 points, down from -3.08 in January, indicating a weak housing market overall. However, on a year-over-year basis, the U.S. housing market has improved by 0.67 points, and the 3-month trend shows an improving housing market. This is compared to the nation’s alltime MiMi low of -4.49 in November 2010 when the housing market was at its weakest.
MiMi merges four economic indicators - purchase applications, payment-toincome, current on mortgage and employment -- with data from multiple sources, including Freddie’s daily business with more than 2,000 mortgage lenders across the country. “Despite a slowdown over the winter months, the housing market continues to show improvement in most states, although at a somewhat slower pace," Freddie Mac Chief Economist Frank Nothaft said." And while not all the MiMi indicators are trending in a better direction–in particular, home-purchase applications have weakened in many areas-- gains in local employment and loan performance have really helped many markets across the country, especially those that were hardest hit."
5 most improving states month-overmonth: South Carolina (+0.14) Louisiana (+0.7) Ohio (+0.07) Tennessee (+0.05) Nevada (+0.07) 5 most improving states year-overyear remain unchanged: Florida (+1.87) Nevada (+1.65) California (+1.08) South Carolina (+0.96) Texas (+0.93).
On the metro level, the five most improving metro areas month-overmonth: Charlotte, N.C. (+0.10) Columbus, Ohio (+0.09) Nashville, Tenn. (+0.07) New Orleans, La. (+0.07) Las Vegas, Nev. (+0.05) (tied) Memphis, Tenn. (+0.05) Miami, Fla. (+0.05). From one year ago, the most improving metros remained unchanged: Miami (+2.33) Orlando, Fla. (+1.91) Las Vegas (+1.64) Riverside, Calif. (+1.60) Tampa, Fla. (+1.49). For first place, the top ranking state and metro are: State: North Dakota at -0.48 Metro: San Antonio at -1.27
GSEs lower expectations on housing market Fannie, Freddie revise sales, construction forecasts downward The government-sponsored enterprises are lowering their housing expectations for 2014, citing shrinking inventory and tightened credit standards among other reasons. Freddie Mac lowered its forecast for home sales to 5.5 million, down about 100,000 sales from the prediction at the start of 2014. “Tight inventory may pose a significant challenge for home buyers in many markets across the country, which may result in higher home prices and sales being lower than expected,” said Freddie Mac chief economist Frank Nothaft. Doug Duncan, chief economist for Fannie Mae, says he now believes that new-home construction will hit 1.5 million housing units this year, which is 50,000 fewer than the original forecast from the start of 2014. “We have downgraded our housing forecast slightly due to a lackluster sales picture,” Duncan said. Digital Risk's CAO Tom Showalter says that the market is currently experiencing
Local inspection app now available The Android version of the Build El Paso Inspection app is now available in the play store. The City Development Department unveiled its first iPhone compatible mobile app for inspection requests – the Build El Paso Inspection app. “Between our efforts and the City [of El Paso’s] IT team and our partners at CityGovApp, we are extremely pleased to offer the public an easier and faster way to request much needed inspections on their building projects,” states Mathew McElroy, director of City Development. For the past few months, City Development along with the Department of Information Technology Services has been working with CityGovApp, Inc to develop a mobile application for inspection requests. The Build El Paso Inspection app will
friction as a result of economic factors like rising home prices, stagnant income levels, and investor participation in the marketplace, and that this friction will keep the housing market from revving up in 2014.
"You know what happens in an engine when you get too much friction and the car just doesn't rev as fast? It’s one of those friction-based arguments rather than a 'catastrophic change' based argument. What I’m saying is that there is so much friction here; the friction from the
regulators, the friction from the lenders, friction from the borrowers (median incomes aren't going up, coming up with down payments are tough, they aren't sure the house is priced correctly) every one of those reasonable propositions is a source of friction," Showalter said. This friction in the market is shrinking retail appetite, as investor demand slows. "What I’m seeing is that the investor is exiting and now you have to start seeing the influx of the retail buyer. The investors are gradually leaving the market as prices rise, and the retail buyer is waiting in the wings. There are some markets, like Miami and San Francisco that are driven by outside factors, but markets like St. Louis and Omaha and parts of California and Nevada that aren't driven by structural factors that are unique and powerful, they are going to suffer the friction as the retail buyer struggles to get back into the marketplace," Showalter said. Showalter notes that "as they get into this excessive friction situation, where in a normal environment for every 10 people
allow users to view their issued permit and request inspections on these permits. Build El Paso Inspection will dramatically increase the turnaround process from assigned permits to inspections. “Right now most inspections are scheduled manually which is time consuming for contractors and staff,” describes Victor MorrisonVega, deputy director of Building & Development Permitting (formally Building Permits & Inspections) – a division of City Development. “This mobile app will eliminate the middle-man and immediately take the request for an inspection and upload it directly into our system.” Build El Paso Inspection is available for download for all iPhone users.
About a month ago, the City Development Department unveiled its first mobile phone app, compatible only with iOS, for inspection requests – the Build El Paso Inspection app. Now Build El Paso Inspection app is available for all smartphones via Apple and Google Play store. “Between our efforts and the City [of El Paso’s] IT team and our partners at CityGovApp, we are extremely pleased to offer the public an easier and faster way to request much needed inspections on their building projects,” states Mathew McElroy, director of City Development. The Build El Paso Inspection app was developed with commercial and residential
that are thinking about doing a deal, where the normal turn rate is 6 in 10, the turn rate becomes 3 or 4 in 10. This is what’s happening in the country, we are making the average home seller nervous, the average home buyer nervous." While this stress on the market will likely slow growth in the coming quarters ahead, Showalter notes that there will be no major collapse. "I don't see things dropping off a cliff like it did when the meltdown occurred because this is a different kind of problem. It will be so hard to get it to climb at a high rate because there is just too much drag," he said. There is some upside, however. "One thing I do see happening as the prices start to drop and as median incomes don't necessarily drop is that you are going to see the affordability index start to go up. So more people will be able to buy a home, the question is how many fish will bite on that bait," Showalter said.
developers in mind; however, anyone can take advantage of its convenience. The app will allow users to view their issued permit and request inspections on these permits. Build El Paso Inspection will dramatically increase the turnaround process from assigned permits to inspections. “These mobile apps will eliminate the middle-man and immediately take the request for an inspection and upload it directly into our system,” shares Victor Morrison-Vega, deputy director of Building & Development Permitting under City Development. For more information about El Paso’s City Development Department, visit elpasotexas.gov/citydevelopment. Like them on Facebook at facebook.com/ElPasoCityDevelopment or follow them on Twitter @EPCityDev. For more information about El Paso’s City Development Department, visit elpasotexas.gov/city-development