Economic and Market Outlook

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pitcher.com.au
and
2023
Economic
Market Outlook April

International economy

In recent weeks we have seen an emergent banking crisis that had its origins in the coronavirus stimulus packages. The government support and cheap lending saw an influx of deposits for many US banks. They faced a choice to:

1. Originate more loans to take advantage of the capital influx, or

2. purchase higher yielding debt securities (mainly bonds) on the market.

The influx of government support and the recession fears back in 2020 meant Option 1 was off the table. Many banks chose Option 2 and bought higher yielding assets (mainly fixed rate ones such as government bonds and mortgage-backed securities).

This was the scenario besetting Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), the largest banking failure (~$US211 billion in assets1) in the US since the global financial crisis. SVB, like peers, had invested its excess deposits heavily in bonds. Ordinarily, if held to maturity the value of these bonds (shown on a bank’s balance sheet as assets) would cover liabilities (customer deposits). When the Federal Reserve (the Fed) lifted rates from a low of 0.08% in January 2022 to 4.1% by December, the market value of these bonds fell sharply To fund customer withdrawals SVB was forced to sell bonds at a loss, which became public knowledge once disclosed in their accounts. By extrapolation, investors soon realised that further withdrawals would crystallise more losses

The situation rapidly spiralled into a classic “bank run” where depositors withdrew funds on mass

This saw US authorities intervene in mid-March to guarantee all deposits held by SVB, and implicitly other troubled banks, to mitigate the risk of further runs on other banks The key risk now is whether this morphs into a more severe financial crisis. While other institutions look vulnerable or have been rescued (cue Credit Suisse2), the overall system appears to be largely intact. We may see other, smaller, banks be absorbed by larger peers, with First Republic Bank being one of the leading candidates. The larger, more regulated institutions such as JP Morgan or Bank of America have more robust capital positions and are far less susceptible to a bank run phenomenon given greater diversification in their customer base. That does not mean this saga is without consequence, however. By reducing the number of lenders, competition is reduced. The concern about profitability could see banks tighten their credit standards as they need to make up for the weaker returns of their asset portfolios. Arguably this is already the case with the Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Survey noting that the largest proportion of lenders are tightening credit standards since early 2020, to levels usually seen in recessions.

Percentage of US banks tightening lending standards to Large/Middle-Market firms (Mar-03 to Mar-23)

1 SVB Financial Group, Form 10-K as at 31 December 2022 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/719739/000071973923000021/sivb-20221231.htm

2 Credit Suisse stocks and shares, all you need to know, Forbes, 27 March 2023: https://www.forbes.com/advisor/au/investing/creditsuisse-shares-all-you-need-to-know/

2 Current as at 1 April 2023 Advisers at Pitcher Partners Sydney Wealth Management are authorised representatives of Pitcher Partners Sydney Wealth Management Pty Ltd, AFSL number 336950.
Source: FRED
-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Percentage tightening standards GlobalFinancial Crisispeak COVID peak

The withdrawal of credit makes it harder for businesses to reinvest in new staff and equipment, dragging on investment spending and overall economic growth as a result. It could also see debt-dependent sectors such as property struggle as they look to refinance their borrowings. We have begun to see stresses emerge in this space with a landlord owned by fund manager PIMCO defaulting on $US1.7 billion in mortgage debt held against office properties3 More loans are falling due in the year ahead which could see more defaults ensue with consequent credit losses impairing bank profitability and contributing to more conservative lending (leading to further credit tightening).

We see this saga as a net negative for the US economy to the extent it has spilled over to other markets (e.g. Credit Suisse) It also poses a negative for the broader global economy for similar reasons in our view. In addition, we are in a period where central banks have continued to tighten. In March, the European Central Bank (ECB) lifted rates by 0.5% while the Fed, despite the unfolding banking crisis, increased by 0.25%4 Nevertheless, global supply chain pressures have eased substantially suggesting further rate hikes are increasingly less likely.

GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index Breakdown (Jan-20 to Feb-23)

Sources: S&P Global, GEP

The picture in services is decidedly more mixed. Globally this sector has fared better than many have expected with recovery from lockdown restrictions and redistribution of consumer spending away from goods both being important drivers. The JP Morgan Global Services PMI, a broad measure of services sector business output, was 52.6 in February implying growth versus a much more modest 50 reading for manufacturing (readings above 50 imply expansion, readings below imply contraction) In the US, prices for core service, excluding the cost of housing (the blue line), are running at elevated levels of 6.1% growth for the year to February (versus a pre-pandemic average of 2%-2.5%) This poses a challenge for the Fed as it implies there is still work left to sufficiently cool demand and ensure headline inflation (the black line) does not remain at a level permanently above their long-term target of 2%.

US inflation – Headline versus Core services excluding shelter (Feb-13 to Feb-23)

3 Two office landlords defaulting may be just the beginning, AFR, 22 March 2023: https://www.afr.com/property/commercial/two-officelandlords-defaulting-may-be-just-the-beginning-20230320-p5ctrv

4 European Central Bank hikes rates despite market mayhem, pledges support if needed, CNBC, 16 March 2023 https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/16/ecb-rate-decision-march-meeting-lagarde-announces-new-rate-hike.html

3 Current as at 1 April 2023 Advisers at Pitcher Partners Sydney Wealth Management are authorised representatives of Pitcher Partners Sydney Wealth Management Pty Ltd, AFSL number 336950.
Continuing strength in services (which accounts for roughly 77% of GDP on a value-added basis) could see the Fed keep interest rates elevated for longer than markets expect. Maintaining a high level of interest rates
-2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Headline Inflation Coreservicesinflation excludingshelter
Source:Bloomberg

compounds the economic damage as a greater proportion of income is diverted towards borrowing costs and away from consumption or investment spending.

It also has implications for credit growth. The creation of new credit is a part of a healthy economy as new lending goes towards projects and assets that should help expand the economy over time. A higher cost of borrowing however raises the hurdle on the returns that these investments need to generate to be viable. If we look at the implication for the US and Eurozone, both economies are seeing negative credit impulses

Given the scale of the US and Europe’s contribution to the world economy, this would suggest weaker global growth in the year ahead.

Bloomberg credit impulse by region as a percentage of GDP (Mar-13 to Mar-23)

Overall, this is shaping up to a decidedly negative world view. The outlook in China however is somewhat less pessimistic. The economy is emerging from self-inflicted harm with the scale and length of its coronavirus restrictions. Business surveys are pointing towards stronger demand and consumer spending is picking up for the first time in several months with retail sales for January-February rising 3.5% year-on-year versus a fall of 1.8% in December 2022. Authorities have also set a growth target of 5% for 2023, a sizeable recovery from the 2.9% recorded in 2022 but below consensus expectations for above 5%5

On the policy front however there has been a marked reluctance to revisit past approaches that relied on stimulating investment in infrastructure, property and other fixed assets. That was the key to fuelling booms for commodities and manufactured goods in the past that benefitted exporters in Australia (mining) and Europe (industrials) respectively It appears this recovery will be more muted than past episodes. A modest expansion of the fiscal deficit from 2.8% of GDP in 2022 to 3% in 2023 also supports this perspective. While China will likely be a net positive for global growth this year it will not be the support some countries might have counted on

Conclusion

In summation we have a world beset with several major challenges. First, a banking crisis that raises the prospect of subdued credit creation and may still prompt new financial risks. Second, an unfavourable policy backdrop with central banks continuing to hike and look to slowdown economic activity to combat still elevated levels of inflation. Finally, there is a lack of meaningful offsets to support a more positive outlook. While China is a significant driver of the global economy, we do not believe it will be enough to change the trajectory of our outlook which is for weak growth and heightened recession risk. Caution remains advised in the near-term.

5 China sets modest growth target as economic risks persist, Bloomberg, 5 March 2023: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/202303-05/china-sets-modest-growth-target-as-economic-risks-persist?leadSource=uverify%20wall

4 Current as at 1 April 2023 Advisers at Pitcher Partners Sydney Wealth Management are authorised representatives of Pitcher Partners Sydney Wealth Management Pty Ltd, AFSL number 336950.
-10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Credit impulse (% of GDP) Euro US Source:Bloomberg

Part 2: Key economic indicators

5 Current as at 1 April 2023 Advisers at Pitcher Partners Sydney Wealth Management are authorised representatives of Pitcher Partners Sydney Wealth Management Pty Ltd, AFSL number 336950.
United States Economic snapshot Last reported result Date 2023e 2024e Growth (GDP) 0.90% Dec-22 0.8% 1.2% Inflation 6.00% Feb-23 4.1% 2.5% Interest rates 4.62% Mar-23 5.3% 3.9% Unemployment rate 3.60% Feb-23 3.9% 4.6% Composite PMI 50.1 Feb-23 Eurozone Economic snapshot Last reported result Date 2023e 2024e Growth (GDP) 1.90% Dec-22 0.5% 1.2% Inflation 8.50% Feb-23 5.7% 2.4% Interest rates 3.00% Mar-23 4.1% 3.4% Unemployment rate 6.60% Jan-23 6.9% 7.0% Composite PMI 52 Feb-23 China Economic snapshot Last reported result Date 2023e 2024e Growth (GDP) 2.90% Dec-22 5.3% 5.0% Inflation 1.00% Feb-23 2.3% 2.3% Interest rates 2.15% Mar-23 4.3% N/a. Unemployment rate 5.60% Feb-23 4.1% 4.0% Composite PMI 54.2 Feb-23 Japan Economic snapshot Last reported result Date 2023e 2024e Growth (GDP) 0.40% Dec-22 1.1% 1.1% Inflation 4.30% Jan-23 2.2% 1.2% Interest rates -0.10% Mar-23 0.0% 0.0% Unemployment rate 2.53% Dec-22 2.5% 2.4% Composite PMI 51.1 Feb-23
Source: Bloomberg
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Management +61
cameron.curko@pitcher.com.au

Australian economy

Our outlook for the Australian economy is framed around a backdrop of considerable uncertainty. The collapse of numerous banks in recent weeks in the United States and the enforced takeover of Credit Suisse, has highlighted the fragility of the global banking system and sent shudders through global investment markets.

Although swift action by central banks to prevent contagion has appeased markets for now, it is too soon to determine if this banking crisis will be contained If the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) taught us anything, it is that sometimes the first signs of trouble can prove to be just the tip of the iceberg of a much bigger problem, portending further trouble ahead. In this instance, the much bigger problem is not so much a liquidity problem but a solvency problem – the growing inability to service debt. This looming risk stems from the decade of ultra-low interest rates and seemingly endless rivers of cheap money.

Initially this was necessary for economies to recover after the shock of the GFC, with low rates helping companies focus on debt reduction and balance sheet repair. However, low rates also encouraged a new group of companies and households to borrow amounts beyond their means. The future solvency of these companies where they are currently unprofitable will be heavily reliant on either shareholder injections or the ability to rollover loans on maturity. With lending standards tightening significantly6 after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SV)B, it is this cohort of companies that is likely to struggle to be able obtain refinancing and be next in line to fail. Similarly, households that can no longer afford their mortgage repayments may soon be forced sellers or face bankruptcy in the absence of sufficient equity. As the chart below highlights for Australian households this burden has climbed significantly over the past year, adding to growing concerns of mortgage stress7 Accordingly, it would be premature to suggest that the worst is over given the underlying risks.

Mortgage repayments – percentage of household disposable income (Mar-09 to Dec-22)

Source: RBA, APRA, ABS; Note Dec-22 observation

is an estimate

Regardless of any deterioration in the current banking crises, our view that the Australian economy will continue to slow over the rest of the calendar year remains unchanged This is because a number of key events already set in motion are unlikely to be derailed. The first and foremost is the impending ‘mortgage cliff’.

Borrowers who took advantage of the ultra-low rates offered during the onset of the pandemic progressively roll off fixed rates of 2.0%-2.5%p a to much higher rates of at least 5.5%-6.0% this year and next. According to the RBA8, the number of fixed rate loans peaked at around 40% of total outstanding home loans in early 2022. Of these, 880,000 fixed rate loan facilities will expire in 2023 and 450,000 in 2024. Based on the

6 Net percent of domestic banks tightening lending standards to large and middle-market firms, FRED, 28 March 2023: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRTSCILM

7 Mortgage customers showing early signs of stress: NAB, AFR, 27 March 2023: https://www.afr.com/companies/financialservices/mortgage-customers-showing-early-signs-of-stress-nab-20230321-p5cu3d

8 RBA Bulletin March 2023: https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2023/mar/pdf/bulletin-2023-03.pdf

6 Current as at 1 April 2023 Advisers at Pitcher Partners Sydney Wealth Management are authorised representatives of Pitcher Partners Sydney Wealth Management Pty Ltd, AFSL number 336950.
6.0% 6.5% 7.0% 7.5% 8.0% 8.5% 9.0% 9.5% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Mortgage repayment (% of household disposable income) Mortgagerepaymentsaspercentageofdisposableincome(Mar-09toDec-22)

average new loan size in NSW of $725,0009 over a 30-year term, repayments will increase from $32,150 to $52,160 when the fixed rate period ends, an increase of 62%. This ensures that disposable incomes will be significantly eroded, if not in some circumstances, entirely depleted. Impacted households will have no choice but to dramatically pare back on expenditure.

Second, while generous government payments during COVID-19, coupled with lockdown induced savings provided generous savings buffers, these have been progressively unwound as mortgage payments have moved higher and will only accelerate in the months ahead.

Third, as activity moderates, businesses will start to feel the impact as orders decelerate and production lines slow. Fourth, this will naturally lead to a reduction in shifts or hours for workers before job cuts become inevitable.

Fifth, inflation, which was the buzz word of 2022, is virtually assured of decelerating. Wage demands will lessen as employees become more concerned about their future job prospects. Supply chain disruptions have already eased significantly and will continue to do so. Energy prices which peaked during the onset of the Ukraine war, have already fallen materially. Commodity prices too, will likely fall further as the global slowdown gathers more momentum.

Sixth, with inflation no longer a problem, the RBA will soon hit pause on ten consecutive interest rate hikes by taking comfort in the fact that demand suppression is virtually assured. This view now aligns with the futures market, which now implies that the cash rate has already peaked at 3.60% and is projected to fall to 3.20% by year end.

ASX 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures Implied Yield Curve (27 March 2023)

Source: ASX

Conclusion

In the RBA’s latest Statement on Monetary Policy10 , economic growth is expected to slow to 1.50% by calendar year end compared to the 2.7% growth recorded for the December quarter in 2022. The RBA’s preferred measure of inflation (the trimmed mean) is forecast to fall to 4.25% by year’s end, and unemployment is expected to only rise marginally to 3.75%. This Statement was released before the banking crisis began to unfold and so we believe risks remain skewed to the downside, increasing the risk of a recession. Despite the impending downturn, the likelihood of interest rates potentially falling by year’s end should provide welcome relief to most heavily indebted households that have been anxiously watching developments unfold with a mix of both fear and trepidation.

9 ABS Lending Indicators August 2022 released 4 Oct 2022. Loan size in NSW as at December 2021.

10 Statement on Monetary Policy February 2023, RBA: https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2023/feb/economic-outlook.html

7 Current as at 1 April 2023 Advisers at Pitcher Partners Sydney Wealth Management are authorised representatives of Pitcher Partners Sydney Wealth Management Pty Ltd, AFSL number 336950.
2.0% 2.2% 2.4% 2.6% 2.8% 3.0% 3.2% 3.4% 3.6% 3.8% Mar-23 Jun-23 Sep-23 Dec-23 Mar-24 Jun-24 Cash rate forecast Cashrateforecastasat27March2023 RBAcashrateasat8March2023 Source:Bloomberg

Part 2: Key economic indicators

8 Current as at 1 April 2023 Advisers at Pitcher Partners Sydney Wealth Management are authorised representatives of Pitcher Partners Sydney Wealth Management Pty Ltd, AFSL number 336950.
Economic snapshot Last reported result Date Growth (GDP) 2.70% Dec-22 Inflation 7.80% Dec-22 Interest rates 3.60% Mar-23 Unemployment rate 3.50% Feb-23 Composite PMI 50.6 Feb-23 Economic snapshot 2023e 2024e Growth (GDP) 1.8% 1.6% Inflation 5.4% 3.1% Interest rates 4.0% 3.2% Unemployment rate 3.9% 4.4% US Dollars per 1 Australian Dollar ($) 0.72 0.75
Source:
Bloomberg
Sydney Wealth Management +61 2 8236 7776 martin.fowler@pitcher.com.au

Australian equities

Overview

The S&P/ASX 200 Total Return Index returned 3.5% over the three months and 0.1% over the year to 31 March 2023

S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index cumulative return (Mar-22 to Mar-23)

Outlook

Recommendation: Maintain underweight

Source: S&P, Bloomberg

Australian equities are facing a period of significant uncertainty amid a weak global and domestic economic backdrop. Initial signs of weakness were prevalent in the recent corporate reporting season (1HFY23). With a handful of exceptions such as energy, healthcare and utilities, most other sectors disappointed earnings expectations. A slowdown in global industrial production and limited stimulus from China is likely to reduce demand for resources and other cyclical sectors such as industrial businesses. Bank margins face challenges from heightened competition (reducing profitability) and weak consumer demand as interest rate hikes bite. Consumer sentiment remains weak, which bodes poorly for the retail sector which has enjoyed the benefit of strong government stimulus in recent years.

Given these conditions, we believe there is further scope for earnings downgrades and heightened risk for further price corrections as economic activity slows. In conclusion, we continue to recommend investors retain an underweight exposure to Australian equities.

Sector view

Our outlook for some of the major sectors of the S&P/ASX 200 is as follows: Banks

Recommendation: Maintain underweight

We believe the downside risks continue to outweigh potential upside factors and we retain an underweight position on the banking sector.

Our credit growth outlook remains negative. New mortgage loans (excluding refinancing) are down over 35% for the year to January. To attract customers in a weak market, lenders must be willing to sacrifice margin in the form of lower rates or cashback and other incentives. This has the impact of lowering net interest margins and was a focus in the latest reporting result by Commonwealth Bank. The rising concern on this front saw CBA shares underperform in February as a result.

Credit quality still appears strong, but we have likely seen the bottom in arrears. S&P figures (see below chart) highlights the uptick in mortgage stress for mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) that they cover. In our

9 Current as at 1 April 2023 Advisers at Pitcher Partners Sydney Wealth Management are authorised representatives of Pitcher Partners Sydney Wealth Management Pty Ltd, AFSL number 336950.
-16% -14% -12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% Mar-22 Jun-22 Sep-22 Dec-22 Mar-23 Cumulative return (31 March 2022 = 0)

view, bad debts are likely to increase over the next 12 months as heavily indebted households and corporates struggle to meet repayments.

SPIN RMBS arrears rate (Jan-03 to Jan-23)

Source: S&P Global as of January 2023

The picture for bank operating efficiency matters more outside of turning points where rising credit risk and declining net interest margins are not as prominent factors as they are in the present day

Resources

Recommendation: Maintain underweight.

Iron ore prices continue to be supported by the ending of pandemic restrictions in China (up 4.2% quarter-todate). We saw confirmation of this in the latest S&P Steel Users PMI with the Asia region seeing a sharp uptick in February with the overall global PMI returning to expansion for the first time since October.

Source: S&P Global

11 S&P Global Steel Users PMI, S&P Global, 7 March 2023: https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/c5506b9fab1b4d53a22b14d686832880, , (accessed 23 March 2023).

10 Current as at 1 April 2023 Advisers at Pitcher Partners Sydney Wealth Management are authorised representatives of Pitcher Partners Sydney Wealth Management Pty Ltd, AFSL number 336950.
Steel Users PMI by region11
0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2% 1.4% 1.6% 1.8% 2.0% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Arrears rate

Despite the reopening bounce in activity, Authorities in China have guided towards a lower-than-expected economic growth target for 2023. In addition, they have been at pains to avoid adding significant stimulus, which could limit commodity price upside

Demand destruction due to rate hikes in the US and elsewhere, as well as soaring energy prices in Europe, remain an ongoing concern for growth as discussed earlier with forecasts for the broader global economy remaining anaemic in 2023, a decidedly negative prospect for resource demand. The bounce back anticipated for China remains an inadequate offset in our view. A material step change in stimulus may impact our outlook but this has not eventuated to date.

If we look to the medium-term outlook for iron ore below both market (forward) pricing and consensus forecasts are anticipating declines of between 25% and 39% from current spot prices. If we take 2022 underlying earnings as a starting point, and assume operating expenses and production are similar, then this could imply a decline of up to 40% in underlying profitability for a business such as Rio Tinto where iron ore accounts for the vast majority of underlying earnings (over 84% for FY22 before excluded items)12. Share prices for the sector are not necessarily accounting for this risk given current valuations.

Iron ore price (62% FE grade), US$/MT

Source: Bloomberg as of 22 March 2023

Taken together, we believe the significant headwinds to global growth continue to outweigh the “China reopening” narrative given the lack of additional stimulus there. The subdued medium-term outlook also gives us pause given current valuations. Accordingly, we maintain our resource sector underweight.

Retail Recommendation: Maintain underweight

Spending has shifted firmly from goods to services with the latter growing at 28.1% for the year to January 2023 versus 8.7% for goods consumption (both in nominal terms) The outlook in more recent weeks has softened however with much of the spending over November to January seemingly tied to travel and holiday related services but has since receded. ANZ research note credit card spending is flagging sizeable declines in discretionary categories as shown below whilst essentials e.g. groceries have held up comparably better. 12 Rio Tinto Annual Report 2022, page 65: https://newswire.iguana2.com/af5f4d73c1a54a33/rio.asx/3A613229/RIO_Rio_Tinto_2022_full_year_results

11 Current as at 1 April 2023 Advisers at Pitcher Partners Sydney Wealth Management are authorised representatives of Pitcher Partners Sydney Wealth Management Pty Ltd, AFSL number 336950.
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 2023 2024 2025 2026 Iron ore price (US$ per MT) Spotprice Forwardpricing Forecast(Median) -25.3% -39.3%

Household spending year-on-year change for week to 18 March 2023

Consumer sentiment has remained soft and a more refined measure of spending intentions (based on credit card data) has also weakened markedly. The CommBank HSI is correlated with real consumption spending (a measure that strips out price impacts to assess underlying demand). Current levels as of late February suggest a material softening during the March quarter after correctly identifying the weakness in the December quarter (reported in early March)

Annual growth in real household spending versus Spending Intentions Index (Sep-18 to Mar-23)

Source: Bloomberg

Lastly, if we look at business performance in the listed consumer discretionary sector, we note a number of firms reported strong results for the December 2022 half. The outlook however was decidedly less clear with several noting that the peak in sales had likely been reached13, with most flagging a tougher environment going forward.

Overall, we believe meaningful drags on consumer spending are now arising. This will bode poorly for the retail sector after recent years of above-average profits (boosted by government stimulus programs) with a return to pre-pandemic profitability likely to be accompanied by further share price weakness.

Australian Real Estate Investment Trusts (AREITs) Recommendation:

Maintain underweight.

The AREIT universe underperformed the broader market in the March quarter One driver was the impact of rising interest rates for sector profitability. While many REITs are at least partially hedged against rising

13 JB Hi-Fi says discounts on the way as sales slow, AFR, 13 February 2023: https://www.afr.com/companies/retail/jb-hi-fi-saysdiscounts-on-the-way-as-sales-slow-20230212-p5cjwt

12 Current as at 1 April 2023 Advisers at Pitcher Partners Sydney Wealth Management are authorised representatives of Pitcher Partners Sydney Wealth Management Pty Ltd, AFSL number 336950.
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-21 Mar-22 Jun-22 Sep-22 Dec-22 Mar-23 Annual growth CommBankHouseholdSpendingIntentionsIndex RealHouseholdconsumption Source:Bloomberg

interest rates, over time they have to refinance and effectively pay these higher rates as loans mature, and financing needs to be replenished. In addition, some are financed with floating rate debt that reprices more instantaneously and has an immediate impact on profitability in a rising rate environment. We saw this risk crystallise during the latest reporting period with some REITs seeing strong rental growth almost entirely offset by higher financing costs. In addition, many REITs in the low inflation environment opted for fixed rate rental escalation as opposed to inflation indexing. This means that rents have lagged rising input and financing costs In some segments demand also remains weak, most notably in the office market with physical occupancy improving but still well below pre-pandemic levels by 20% or more. This casts doubt on profitability as the net income generated by certain sectors may be permanently impaired.

Office physical occupancy in the four major CBDs relative to pre-COVID levels

Source: Dexus HY23 Results Presentation14

The sector continues to trade at a material discount to net asset value (assets less liabilities) with only five of the 24 firms trading at a premium. At face value this suggests an opportunity on valuation grounds to invest today and wait for the discount to gradually close and enjoy the capital appreciation that would result.

That view presupposes that the valuations underpinning book values are reasonable. We think that there is room for doubt with capitalisation (or “cap”) rates still trading at record lows for some sectors, particularly industrial property as shown below The valuation correction has only just begun for AREITs. Many businesses only noted minor expansion in cap rates if at all in the latest reporting season update during February. In their defence the transactions market has arguably justified this perspective with valuations largely ignoring the backdrop of higher financing costs. (The 10-year bond yield at 4.05% is sitting far above its recent low point of 0.61% in March 2020). In that environment office and industrial heavyweight Dexus (ASX: DXS) only saw a 0.16% expansion in its portfolio cap rate. We don’t believe these anomalies can persist and expect property valuations to fall further as cap rates adjust.

14 HY23 Results presentation, Dexus, 14 February 2023: https://newswire.iguana2.com/af5f4d73c1a54a33/dxs.asx/2A1430463/DXS_HY23_Results_presentation

13 Current as at 1 April 2023 Advisers at Pitcher Partners Sydney Wealth Management are authorised representatives of Pitcher Partners Sydney Wealth Management Pty Ltd, AFSL number 336950.

Source: Bloomberg

A-REITs enjoyed a strong start to the year, outperforming the market in January but have since declined with the rise in market volatility due to the banking crisis overseas. We believe the sector remains challenged given the above factors and would need to see a sustained decline in interest rates or further fall in asset values to improve our view on the sector Accordingly, we maintain our underweight outlook.

14 Current as at 1 April 2023 Advisers at Pitcher Partners Sydney Wealth Management are authorised representatives of Pitcher Partners Sydney Wealth Management Pty Ltd, AFSL number 336950.
Property capitalisation rates by sector (Feb-13 to Feb-23)
Sydney Wealth Management +61 2 9228 2415 cameron.curko@pitcher.com.au 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Capitalisation rate (net operating income divided by land value) Office Industrial Retail
&

International equities

Overview

The MSCI World (excluding Australia) Net Total Return Index (AUD) returned 9.2% over the past three months and 4.3% over the year to 31 March 2023

MSCI World excluding Australia Net Total Return Index (Mar-22 to Mar-23)

Outlook

Source: MSCI, Bloomberg

The outlook for international equities remains challenging.

On the positive side, valuations remain favourable, particularly outside the US, with major markets trading at discounts of over 10% to their long-term average price-earnings multiples. Normally such discounts provide attractive opportunities to accumulate equities. In addition, the reopening of China has spurred expectations of stronger global demand supporting firms providing natural resources and reliant on Chinese demand e.g., luxury goods. The recent US banking sector crisis and spill over into Europe may also see central banks pause their rate hikes to assess the damage and avoid compounding it.

However, there are several counterarguments that give us pause.

First, monetary policy remains unsupportive. Central banks have shown an unrelenting commitment to combat inflation, particularly in the US and Europe. This suggests that current interest rate levels may persist until we see broad-based economic weakness, such as significant job losses. The longer this scenario persists the greater the risk of lower asset prices as investors move capital to safer options such as cash.

We also harbour concerns that the outlook for slowing economic growth is not adequately reflected in earnings forecasts. The US is still predicted to grow profits approximately 5.9% per annum over the next three years to 2025. This remains difficult to reconcile with the below-average growth outlook. If earnings disappoint further, as would seem likely over coming quarters, then the risk of further market weakness in the short term is high.

Lastly the geopolitical environment continues to be unstable. The war in Ukraine shows no signs of abating, posing ongoing challenges for the global supply of energy and food. Further, the probability of China invading Taiwan in the next few years continues to rise.

On balance, we believe the case for being underweight global equities continues to be justified and maintain our underweight position.

Valuations

In the United States, operating earnings for S&P 500 companies are currently expected to decline by 0.8% in 2023, and then rise by 9.9% and 9% in 2024 and 2025 respectively. Assuming conventional long-term

15 Current as at 1 April 2023 Advisers at Pitcher Partners Sydney Wealth Management are authorised representatives of Pitcher Partners Sydney Wealth Management Pty Ltd, AFSL number 336950.
-14% -12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% Mar-22 Jun-22 Sep-22 Dec-22 Mar-23 Cumulative return (31 March 2022 = 0)

multiples, we estimate that the United States sharemarket (as measured by the S&P 500 Index) is overvalued by 8.8% in the near-term and undervalued by almost 7% in the medium-term.

Source: Bloomberg consensus estimates for 2023, 2024 and 2025 as of 29 March 2023

Over the March quarter we continued to observe rising share prices even as earnings expectations declined Two factors have been key. First, the deceleration of US inflation saw the “bad news is good news” narrative persist whereby investors are anticipating the Fed to halt or even cut rates sooner than previously anticipated to offset weaker economic growth. Second, the positive economic data emerging out of China saw a pickup in optimism for commodities and consequently resource stocks in anticipation of stronger Chinese demand.

12-month Forward Price-Earnings Ratios for major markets (Mar-06 to Mar-23)

Source: Bloomberg; Data as at 29 March 2023

16 Current as at 1 April 2023 Advisers at Pitcher Partners Sydney Wealth Management are authorised representatives of Pitcher Partners Sydney Wealth Management Pty Ltd, AFSL number 336950.
2023 calendar year forecast EPS earnings estimates (US$) S&P 500 fair value estimate Upside/(downside) S&P 500 = 4027.8 Consensus 220.2 3522.9 -12.5% If 10% below 198.2 3170.6 -21.3% If 10% above 242.2 3875.2 -3.8% 2024 calendar year forecast EPS earnings estimates (US$) S&P 500 fair value estimate Upside/(downside) S&P 500 = 4027.8 Consensus 242.4 3879.0 -3.7% If 10% below 218.2 3491.1 -13.3% If 10% above 266.7 4266.9 +5.9% 2025 calendar year forecast EPS earnings estimates (US$) S&P 500 fair value estimate Upside/(downside) S&P 500 = 4027.8 Consensus 264.2 4226.7 +4.9% If 10% below 237.8 3804.0 -5.6% If 10% above 290.6 4649.4 +15.4%

Consistent with the above, forward Price-to-Earnings (P/E) multiples for markets around the world are below longer-term averages as follows:

Source: Bloomberg. Data as at 29 March 2023.

Conclusion

Recommendation: Maintain underweight

In spite of more attractive valuations, we believe consensus earnings forecasts remain overly optimistic. We expect earnings expectations to be downgraded in coming months as global growth slows materially given challenges posed by inflation, the US banking crisis and rising interest rates. For these reasons we remain underweight.

Management +61 2 9228 2415 cameron.curko@pitcher.com.au

17 Current as at 1 April 2023 Advisers at Pitcher Partners Sydney Wealth Management are authorised representatives of Pitcher Partners Sydney Wealth Management Pty Ltd, AFSL number 336950.
Region Forward PE 15-year Average Forward PE Potential upside/downside All Country World (ex-US) 12.8x 14.3x +12.1% Australia 14.0x 15.8x +12.9% Europe 12.8x 14.3x +11.5% Emerging markets 12.1x 12.5x +3.5% Japan 13.4x 15.8x +17.9% UK 10.3x 13.3x +28.4% China 14.0x 12.3x -12.2%

Making business personal

Martin Fowler Partner | Pitcher Partners Sydney Wealth Management +61 2 8236 7776 martin.fowler@pitcher.com.au

Cameron Curko Head of Macroeconomics & Strategy | Pitcher Partners Sydney Wealth Management +61 2 9228 9173 cameron.curko@pitcher.com.au

Charlie Viola Partner | Managing Director –Pitcher Partners Sydney Wealth Management +61 2 8236 7798 charlie.viola@pitcher.com.au

Jordan Kennedy Partner | Pitcher Partners Sydney Wealth Management +61 2 9228 2423 jordan.kennedy@pitcher.com.au

Andrew Wilson Principal | Pitcher Partners Sydney Wealth Management +61 2 9228 2455 a.wilson@pitcher.com.au

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Adelaide Brisbane Melbourne Newcastle Perth Sydney Copyright © 2023. Any advice included in this newsletter is general only and has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situations or needs. Before acting on the advice you should consider whether it’s appropriate to you, in light of your objectives, financial situation or needs. You should also obtain a copy of and consider the Product Disclosure Statement for any financial product mentioned before making any decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Advisers at Pitcher Partners Sydney Wealth Management are authorised representatives of Pitcher Partners Sydney Wealth Management Pty Ltd, AFSL number 336950 Authors
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