OPINION
Uzair Younus
Pakistan’s second war on terror
which targeted TTP safe havens. Complicating this challenge is the growing capability of Baloch terror groups, which have also started to increase the tempo of their attacks. An example are the deadly army post attacks in Balochistan in early February, following which the security forces claimed that they had killed 20 militants in Panjgur and Noshki. These groups have allegedly found akistan’s second war on terror is becoming more safe havens across the border in Iran, with the interior ministry confirmviolent and more complex over the last few months. ing that “anti-Pakistan terror outfits are regrouping in Balochistan via With security personnel facing attacks on an almost Sistan.” The suicide bombing in Karachi shows that their capabilities daily basis, the situation in the peripheral regions near are only growing, meaning that Pakistan now must deal with growing the Afghan and Iranian borders has become tenuous. violence in both Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. As last week’s suicide bombing in Karachi by a female To deal with this growing violence, the country needs institutional bomber shows, terror groups are once again capable of carrying and political consensus. This consensus was last forged following the out attacks in urban centers. While a protracted game of thrones horrific APS tragedy. Following the ouster of Imran Khan, political templays out in Islamabad and its adjoining areas, not enough attention peratures are unlikely to come down, especially with elections around the is being paid to this ongoing war that is going to be much more corner. This is further complicated by the fact that the military establishchallenging to win for the Islamic Republic of Pakistan. ment is facing its own set of challenges due to the political crisis. Finally, There are three key reasons for why the second war on terror the army chief is on his way out, meaning that his own capabilities to is much more complex than the first: growing capabilities of both corral political leadership together are severely constrained. the radical Islamist and Baloch terror groups, a worsening political Winning against insurgencies is economically costly as well. Paying economy, and the withdrawal of U.S. troops in Afghanistan. for the increased tempo of military operations, aerial strikes, and investReports have consistently flagged that radical Islamist ment in new gear and technology all requires hard cash, especially foreign groups, in particular the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the currency. Money is also needed to win hearts and minds, both by doling Islamic State (ISIS-K), have significantly rebuilt their capabilities out cash and investing in developmental projects. Pakistan currently is in the last few months. This is evident in the growing tempo of confronting an economic crisis and is trying to negotiate the resumption terror attacks targeting Pakistani security forces and law enforceof the IMF program, meaning that the state’s capacity to fund major milment personnel. The worsening situation in Afghanistan means itary operations and development is extremely limited. Controlling the that these groups have safe havens from where they can plan and ballooning current account deficit is a priority, with reserves standing at execute sophisticated attacks targeting people within and outside less than two months of import cover. This financial crunch may further Afghanistan. An example is an alleged ISIS-K rocket attack on Uzworsen due to higher commodity prices in the international market. All bekistan, where 10 rockets were claimed to have been fired by the of which means that there is unlikely to be any spare cash available to group. While Uzbek authorities said that this was untrue, ISIS-K’s fund things that can win hearts and minds while defeating militants. growing capacity in northern Afghanistan has started to concern During the first war on terror, Pakistan had some level of inflows both the Taliban and other regional powers. Pakistan has faced and support coming from the U.S., whose military forces were stationed the brunt of this growing violence at the hands of the TTP and across the border in Afghanistan. Given that the Washington had long has upped the ante by carrying out airstrikes in Khost and Kunar encouraged Islamabad and Rawalpindi to deal with terror groups on its soil, Pakistan was able to get some level of financial and military assistance from Uncle Sam to pay for these operations. It could also count on U.S. forces to mop up terrorists escaping into Afghanistan. The U.S. is now solely occupied with the Ukraine and the Biden administration has no major interest in coming to Pakistan’s rescue. This lack of interest from Washington means that unlike the first war on terror, when The writer is Director of Pakistan could count on the U.S., it must now fight this war on its own, without major military and the Pakistan Initiative financial support. at the Atlantic Council, a Terror groups targeting Pakistan recognize the constraints faced by their enemy, which is why they Washington D.C.-based are becoming increasingly brazen and aggressive with their attacks. Given the current environment in think tank, and host of the Pakistan – you will find hardly a primetime show dedicated to the second war on terror – it is unlikely podcast Pakistonomy. He that the country will step up its game any time soon. There will be more condemnation over attacks, tweets @uzairyounus. some more visits to the frontlines, and press releases about martyrs. But beyond that, Pakistan seems neither capable nor serious about winning its second war on terror. n
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