Ocean Nexus Special Report - A Policy Analysis for Climate Adaptation in Japanese Fisheries

2025

CLIMATE ADAPTATION

A Policy Analysis for Climate Adaptation in Japanese Fisheries

CREDITS

OVERVIEW

Yoshitaka Ota, Ph.D. Yulan Kim, Ph.D. Yuto Furuzono Shingo Hamada, Ph.D. Yumeng Pang, Ph.D.

This report examines climate change adaptation strategies for Japan’s offshore, coastal, and aquaculture fisheries through an equity-centered lens. It analyzes key policy trade-offs and offers recommendations to strengthen support for vulnerable fishers and farmers, advance environmental justice, and promote sustainable, climate-resilient fisheries across Japan’s diverse coastal communities.

A Policy Analysis for Climate Adaptation in Japanese Fisheries

Yoshitaka Ota Yulan Kim Yuto Furuzono​ Shingo Hamada​ Yumeng Pang Ocean Nexus Special Report | 2025 oceannexus.org

Table of Contents Table of Contents​ 2 Executive Summary​ 3 Author Bios​ 5 Acknowledgments​ 7 Introduction to Nippon Foundation Ocean Nexus​ 7 1. Introduction​ 8 2. Policy Analysis for Offshore Fisheries: Considering Rationalization Strategies​ 11 2. 1. Introduction​ 11 2. 2. Background and Policy Problem​ 12 2. 3. Policy Options​ 13 2. 4. Criteria and Analysis​ 16 2. 5. Trade-Offs​ 19 Table 1: Policy matrix summarizing policy analysis.​ 20 3. Policy Analysis for Coastal Fisheries against Red Tide: Complementing the Mutual Aid System for Akkeshi Sea Urchin Harvesters​ 21 3. 1. Introduction​ 21 3. 2. Background and Policy Problem​ 21 3.2.1 Red Tide (Harmful Algal Bloom)​ 21 3.2.2 The Japanese Mutual Aid System​ 24 3.2.3 The Policy Problem​ 25 3. 3. Policy Options​ 26 3. 4. Criteria​ 27 Table 2: Political Feasibility Scale​ 28 Table 3: Distributive Equity Scale​ 29 3. 5. Analysis​ 30 Table 4: Policy Analysis Matrix​ 30 3. 6. Trade-offs and Discussion​ 31 4. Policy Analysis for Aquaculture against Ocean Acidification: Raising Awareness and Promoting Sustainable Aquaculture among Hinase Oyster Farmers​ 33 4. 1. Introduction​ 33 4. 2. Policy Options and Applications​ 34 4.2.1 Policy Options to Raise OA Awareness​ 34 4.2.2 Policy Options to Promote Sustainable Aquaculture​ 36 4. 3 Summary and Future Outlooks​ 40 References​ 41

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Executive Summary Japan plays a key role in the world’s production and consumption of seafood. In 2021, the fishing industry is estimated to have generated over 637 billion Japanese yen for the country’s GDP (Klein, 2024), and the Japanese government ranks as one of the top spenders globally in terms of public sector support for the fisheries sector (OECD, 2022).

Additionally, Japan ranks the highest in per capita seafood consumption globally, constituting one of the top three markets for seafood (Guillen et al., 2019; Swartz et al., 2010).

Climate change is rapidly changing Japanese fisheries, which have long been a significant economic and cultural part of Japanese life. This time of change presents an opportunity for the Japanese government to reconsider its approach to fisheries management.

Particularly, it presents an opportunity to center equity values in fisheries management, which have traditionally been overlooked relative to other public values such as economy, effectiveness,

and efficiency. As climate impacts disproportionately disadvantage

marginalized populations in fisheries, it is crucial to incorporate an environmental justice perspective into policymaking. This time of change serves as an opportunity to dismantle long-standing institutions that have been perpetuating social inequities.

This report presents a policy analysis for climate adaptation in Japanese fisheries. The policy analysis report is prepared for the Fisheries Agency of Japan. The objective is to provide the Japanese government with an assessment of policy options that they can consider for climate change adaptation. Findings are discussed in the form of tradeoffs between policy options. We seek to promote equitable policymaking by incorporating equity assessments into our policy analysis.

Japanese domestic marine fisheries can be classified into three categories: offshore, coastal, and aquaculture. Climate change impacts all three types of fisheries. Spanning across species and locations, the catch of certain offshore fisheries has been in rapid decline since 2010 due to unfavorable ocean environments (Furuzono, 2024). Coastal fisheries and aquaculture have been facing other forms of acute and persistent climate impacts, such as red tide events and threats of ocean acidification. This report consists of three distinct policy analyses for offshore fisheries, coastal fisheries, and aquaculture, addressing unique challenges that each type of fishery faces due to climate change.

The analysis for offshore fisheries focuses on Pacific saury. The policy problem is that there is too little profit from the fisheries to sustain the livelihoods of all the current saury fishers. We analyze rationalization strategies for saury fishers. Focusing on the 2021 Red Ocean Nexus Special Report | A Policy Analysis for Climate Adaptation in Japanese Fisheries

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Tide event that impacted the sea urchin harvesters in Akkeshi, Hokkaido, the analysis for coastal fisheries addresses the policy problem that under the current mutual aid program and compensation policy, sea urchin harvesters in Akkeshi remain too economically vulnerable to the impacts of red tide. The policy options explore how to improve the existing safety net for Akkeshi sea urchin harvesters. The analysis for aquaculture takes a two-pronged approach, focused on promoting ocean acidification awareness among Hinase oyster farmers on the one hand, and adaptation strategies on the other. The analysis focuses on the problem that Hinase oyster farmers remain too underprepared to address the impacts of ocean acidification, both in terms of awareness and sustainable aquaculture. The three analyses employ a suite of distinct methodologies to explore policy options for climate change adaptation and analyze their trade-offs.

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Author Bios Dr. Yoshitaka Ota is the founder of Nippon Foundation Ocean Nexus, a scholarly network of ocean researchers who devoted their research to advance ocean equity. At the University of Rhode Island, Dr. Ota is a Professor of Marine Affairs. Dr. Ota graduated University College London with Ph.D. in Anthropology and worked in universities and research institutes of the UK, Japan, Canada and the US as a researcher and professor. He has over 100 research publications, book chapters and reports. Dr. Ota has held the Professor of Practice position at the School of Marine and Environmental Affairs in University of Washington and has had various visiting and affiliate positions in US and Canada. He also has the Executive Masters of Public Administration from Evans Policy School at the University of Washington.

Dr. Yulan Kim is a policy research fellow at Ocean Nexus. She holds a Ph.D. in Public Policy and Management from the University of Washington. Her work focuses on public management and equitable policy analysis. In the context of ocean governance, she has focused on conducting policy analysis for fisheries management in response to climate change impacts. She collaborates with ocean scholars to introduce policy-driven and equity-oriented perspectives into research on marine affairs.

Yuto Furuzono has worked for the Fisheries Agency of Japan since 2014. After engaging in domestic fisheries management, aquaculture promotion, multilateral environmental treaties, etc., he applied to a two-year study abroad program sponsored by the government of Japan. He got a research opportunity at the University of Washington's School of Marine and Environmental Affairs (SMEA). He wrote a thesis on policy analysis regarding climate adaptation in Japanese fisheries and graduated from SMEA in 2024 with a Master's in Marine Affairs. This report draws from parts of his thesis.

Dr. Shingo Hamada is a professor of food studies at the Faculty of Liberal Arts, Osaka Shoin Women’s University, Osaka, Japan. His research revolves around the environmental history and cultural politics of seafood in coastal communities in the North Pacific. Trained in anthropology, he has conducted ethnographic fieldwork in Fukui, Hokkaido, Southeast Alaska, and Northeast Sweden. His publications include Seafood: from Ocean to the Plate, and several articles in English and Japanese on coastal conservation, marine policy, and gastronomic placemaking in artisanal fisheries. He holds a Ph.D. in Anthropology from Indiana University, and his research has been supported by the Fulbright Japan, the Japan Society of the Promotion of Science, the U.S. National Science Foundation, and Wenner-Gren Foundation.

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Dr. Yumeng Pang holds a Ph.D. in Aquatic Bioscience from the University of Tokyo. As a fisheries biologist, she has been focusing on the impacts of changing ocean conditions on marine organisms and ecosystems and its associations with fisheries/aquaculture productions. She has participated in the Japan Ocean Acidification (OA) adaptation project since 2022. Her work includes reviewing literatures on global OA research, learning about the latest OA monitoring techniques and introducing them to Japan, gathering and analyzing data on potential OA impacts on oyster aquaculture in Japan,and collaborating with Japanese local shellfish farmers to build a tailored OA adaptive framework based on their needs and challenges.

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Acknowledgments We extend our heartfelt gratitude for the invaluable support and collaboration provided by the Japanese government, organizations, and agencies, particularly the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries and the Fisheries Agency of Japan, whose financial support made our policy analysis on Japanese offshore fisheries possible. Special thanks go to Japan Erimo Fishing Cooperatives and Akkeshi Fishing Cooperatives for their data and insights, which were instrumental to our analysis of coastal fisheries facing red tide challenges, as well as to the Satoumi Research Institute and the Hinase oyster farmers for sharing their knowledge and experiences from the local oyster industry, enriching our policy analysis of Japanese aquaculture in the face of ocean acidification.

We are also deeply grateful to the Nippon Foundation Ocean Nexus Center for fostering connections and uniting researchers to address Japanese fishery and aquaculture challenges within a global context. In particular, we thank Professor Yoshitaka Ota for his invaluable guidance, Professor Wilf Swartz for his constructive feedback on the design of our policy analysis, Professor Andres Cisneros-Montemayor for his assistance with pertinent literature, and Dr. Kisei Tanaka for insightful discussions on climate change. Our appreciation also goes to Karin Otsuka Trudo and Ariel Wang for their dedicated research support, Dr. Sieme Bossier and Reuben Martinez for their feedback, and Associate Professor Emeritus David Fluharty at SMEA for his thoughtful suggestions and guidance.

Introduction to Nippon Foundation Ocean Nexus At Nippon Foundation Ocean Nexus, our mission is to establish social equity at the center of ocean governance. Transformational change begins with understanding how our relationship with the ocean deeply affects social justice and equity. Guided by principles of equity and justice, we connect scholars worldwide to share stories centered around historically marginalized perspectives. Researching the interconnections between inequities unique to each context and understanding the governance of the oceans is core to our ocean equity research and communications strategy. Our work holds powerful interests accountable for the consequences of systemic inequities. At Nippon Foundation Ocean Nexus, we aspire to create equitable oceans for humanity. Visit Oceannexus.org to learn more about Nippon Foundation Ocean Nexus ocean equity research.

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1.​

Introduction

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Climate change impacts are rapidly transforming the ocean environment, leading to the redistribution of marine resources both geographically and quantitatively. These shifts affect fish stock locations and productivity, profoundly impacting nations dependent on fisheries and aquaculture. As a major global producer and consumer of fishery products with rich marine resources, Japan is likely to experience significant impacts. Due to favorable geographic conditions, Japanese territorial waters and exclusive economic zones (EEZs) encompass some of the world’s most productive fishing grounds (Makino, 2011).

Naturally, fishery and aquaculture products have been an economically and culturally important part of the Japanese way of life. Japan's marine capture fisheries production is estimated to have generated over 637 billion Japanese yen for the country’s GDP in 2021 (Klein, 2024). In addition to its extensive fish production, Japan is also a major market for fish. In 2022, Japan imported an estimated 2.22 million tons of fishery products worth $15 billion, ranking as the world’s third-largest importer of fishery products (Kitada, 2023).

While climate change impacts are context-specific, they underscore the urgent need for policy-based adaptation strategies. Recognizing this, this report has been prepared for the Fisheries Agency of Japan to provide a policy analysis of adaptation options available to the Japanese government for addressing climate change in its fisheries sector. The report consists of three distinct policy analyses for Japanese offshore fisheries, coastal fisheries, and aquaculture.

Section 2 presents a policy analysis for Japanese offshore fisheries, considering rationalization strategies for saury fisheries. Since 2010, there has been a rapid decline in the catch of offshore Pacific saury. This has led to the policy problem that there is too little profit from the fisheries to sustain the livelihoods of all the current saury fishers. To address this problem, we focus on policy options of 1) management change of the current quota system, 2) partial permit termination, 3) income support, and 4) species diversification. The trade-offs of these options are assessed using eight distinct criteria: 1) estimated profit gain, 2) impacts on the local community through the unemployment of fishers, 3) cost to the government, 4) distributive equity, 5) procedural equity, 6) political feasibility, 7) uncertainty, and 8) duration. We use data sets of total landings and revenues (collected from the industry), catch quota share (sourced from the government), and costs (quoted from documents of a government-funded fishery-reform project) to quantitatively model the performance of each option to assess their trade-offs.

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Section 3 presents a policy analysis for Japanese coastal fisheries, focusing on the impacts of the 2021 Red Tide event on sea urchin fishery in Eastern Hokkaido, with Akkeshi as a case study. The policy problem is that under the current mutual aid program and compensation policy, sea urchin harvesters in Akkeshi remain too economically vulnerable to the impacts of the red tide. We explore three policy options including 1) modifying the mutual aid system to incorporate local adaptability, 2) subsidizing the establishment of community-based on-land hatcheries, and 3) subsidizing sea urchin farming. Six distinct criteria are used to assess the trade-offs of these policies including 1) effectiveness in mitigating the income loss of sea urchin harvesters against future red tide events, 2) cost to the government, 3) recovery prospects, 4) political feasibility, 5) distributional equity, and 6) environmental footprint. We use ethnographic methods to carry out the analysis, combining data collected through field interviews, media and archival data, and information provided by the Hokkaido Research Organization.

Section 4 focuses on Japanese aquaculture, more specifically on oyster farming in the Hinase region. Informed by a survey conducted on Hinase oyster farmers regarding their awareness of ocean acidification, we focus on two policy goals: to promote ocean acidification awareness and to foster sustainable aquaculture practices among Hinase oyster farmers. In terms of promoting ocean acidification awareness, we analyze the following policy options: 1) encouraging ocean monitoring and data sharing through community grants, 2) the production and dissemination of informational resources on ocean acidification and shellfish health, and 3) leveraging research grants for eelgrass restoration and as an ocean acidification management tool. In terms of promoting sustainable aquaculture, we review the following policy options: 1) subsidies to establish an on-land hatchery, 2) species diversification grants, 3) revision of regulations on site-specific buffering, 4) relocation subsidies, and 5) strengthening the cross-sector networking function of local oyster coops. Given the early state of ocean acidification recognition, data on the effectiveness of ocean acidification policies is insufficient to conduct a full policy analysis. Instead, we provide an overview of policy actions taken to mitigate ocean acidification impacts that have been adopted in other country contexts. We review the achievements and challenges of these policies as well as the likelihood of transferability to Japan.

Fisheries management has often resulted in creating and sustaining unintended inequities among various groups within fisheries that can be defined across dimensions of race and ethnicity,

gender,

place

of

residence,

operational size, etc. Despite presenting

unprecedented challenges, climate change opens a window of opportunity to push for change in combating the inequities that have historically been perpetuated in fisheries.

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Especially, given evidence that historically marginalized groups in fisheries will be the most severely impacted by climate change—impacts that are imposed upon them rather than caused by their actions—an environmental justice perspective is essential to designing climate adaptation strategies (Johnson & Welch, 2009).

Through this report, we call on the need to endorse an equity and justice perspective as governments consider policies for climate adaptation. In such a direction, each policy analysis in the report adopts criteria to assess various dimensions of equity. In the policy analysis for offshore fisheries, we consider distributive equity between the fishers that decide to remain versus exit the saury fishery, as well as between fishers from large, medium, and small-sized fleets. We also consider procedural equity among the saury fishers in terms of how the proposed policies affect fishers’ autonomy in deciding to remain versus exit the fishery. In the policy analysis for coastal fisheries, we consider distributive equity among different groups of fishers, focusing on gender and nationality given that these groups constitute some of the most marginalized groups in Japanese coastal fisheries. As such, equity considerations in policy analysis can take different forms and focus on different groups of individuals within fisheries. We demonstrate how equity values can guide policy decisions by evaluating their interaction with other key public values, such as economic viability, efficiency, and effectiveness—criteria to which policymakers must remain responsive. We hope this report illustrates how policymakers can actively center equity in their considerations for climate adaptation policies within fisheries.

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2.​

Policy Analysis for Offshore Fisheries: Considering Rationalization Strategies

2. 1. Introduction The adverse impacts of climate change on Japanese fisheries have been alarmingly apparent since 2010 in all sectors, from coastal fisheries and aquacultures to offshore fisheries. These impacts, such as catch declines, distribution changes, and mass mortalities, occur at an unprecedented level beyond the historical baseline, necessitating immediate post-incident financial relief to address the unanticipated economic damage.

While effective in the short term, the current fisheries insurance scheme in Japan is not designed to subsidize a continuing or persistent revenue loss, highlighting the urgent need for additional policies. Although research to elucidate the mechanism of changes and impacts is essential to explore fundamental solutions, it can take substantial time and research to elucidate the mechanisms of climate change impacts on fisheries. Also, it can be uncertain whether implementable solutions are identified even if the mechanisms are uncovered. In this regard, fisheries sectors must build resilience against adverse impacts to mitigate unavoidable damage.

The Japanese government has already launched discussion platforms such as the Fisheries Agency’s Study Group on the adaptation measures for fisheries and Ministry of Environment’s Regional Councils for adaptation, contributing to narrowing down measures to build resilience. The key message of the Study Group’s recommendations is diversification (Fisheries Agency of Japan, 2023). This strategy can be implemented for coastal fisheries because of its flexible management and operation as well as the ability to develop concerted actions among coastal fishers through FCAs. However, it is questionable if diversification can be feasible for offshore fisheries, especially ones relying on single species such as saury fisheries. The ongoing “fisheries policy reform” underscores output control based on Maximum Sustainable Yield to recover declined stocks and achieve sustainable use (Government of Japan, 2022). In doing so, the Study Group recommends improving stock assessment and data collection (Government of Japan, 2022). Although this policy is undoubtedly important as a fisheries management principle, policymakers should also prepare for the worst situation where a declining fish stock is unlikely to recover soon under climate change despite introducing robust catch limits. Some stocks targeted by offshore fisheries, such as saury and flying squid, are likely to be in such a situation now, and businesses involved in the fisheries are jeopardized due to their heavy reliance on saury and flying squid.

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This study provides a policy approach to address this problem, using data sets of the North Pacific saury fishery. The analysis points to the need to rationalize the fishery, which means reducing fishing capacity to adjust to a low stock level driven by climate change.

2. 2. Background and Policy Problem The landings of Pacific saury (Cololabis saira) in Japan were stable for more than three decades 1980-2014. However, the last eight years saw a rapid and dramatic decline in the catch, regardless of the continuing management (Japan Saury Stick-held Dip-net Fishery Cooperative Association, n.d.). Since 2019, the landings have been at historically low levels, less than 20 percent of the catch in 2014. The national TAC of saury was halved from 264,000 tons in the late 2010s to 118,131 tons in 2023, but the actual landing in 2023 was 24,433 tons, well below the TAC (Fisheries Agency of Japan, n.d.a). Pacific saury has been internationally managed since 2015 by a regional fisheries management organization, the North Pacific Fisheries Commission (NPFC), to ensure its sustainable use based on science. The result of the stock assessment conducted by the NPFC revealed that overfishing happened, and the saury stock was overfished during the decade 2010-2019 (NPFC, 2023) when catches on the High Seas increased and Japan's share decreased from about 50% to 20% (Nakayama et al., 2024).

Although overexploitation is one of the causes of catch decrease, environmental factors can be attributed as causal. Japan has saury's primary spawning ground off its coast, and Japanese fishers take advantage of the spawning migration. Recently, however, less migration has been observed, with the main fishing ground for Japanese fishers shifting eastward from Japan's EEZ to the High Seas. Japan Fisheries Research and Education Agency (2023) suggests the following hypothesis: Since 2010, anomalously warm water associated with weakened Oyashio flow has persisted off the coast of Japan, which may have blocked saury from migrating to its primary spawning area. The migration route has shifted eastward to the offshore area, and accordingly, Japan's historical fishing grounds have contracted. At the same time, the change in Kuroshio current may have contributed to transporting larval fish to farther offshore areas with less food availability, and stock biomass may have consequently decreased, driven by poorer growth and survival.

This change has caused adverse effects on saury fishers, such as less successful search for fish, fewer fishing opportunities, and increased fuel consumption, aside from the decrease in stock abundance. The fishery has become less viable due to revenue decreases and cost increases. It is safe to say the situation encompassing saury fishers has been stuck in an adverse pattern for multiple years and the prognosis is not positive in the

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foreseeable future. For the following policy analysis, this report defines the policy problem as “there is too little profit from the fisheries to sustain the livelihoods of all the current saury fishers.”

2. 3. Policy Options First, current revenue, cost, and net profit of the saury fishery are estimated for three categories based on fishing vessel size: small (38 vessels) - less than 20 gross tonnage (GT), medium (25 vessels) - 20 GT or more and less than 100 GT, and large (48 vessels) 100 GT or more. The aggregate revenue for each size class is calculated by allocating total revenue in proportion to “catch potential,” which is a function of individual catch quota possessed by each vessel. Costs are estimated based on data sets quoted from documents of “fisheries structural reforming projects” regarding the saury fishery, which include cost structure data for fishing vessels involved. Please see full report for details of profit estimation and data sets (catch and revenue: Japan Saury Stick-held Dip-net Fishery Cooperative Association, n.d.; vessel numbers and catch quota: Fisheries Agency of Japan, n.d.b; salary: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and tourism, 2023; other costs: Japan Saury Stick-held Dip-net Fishery Cooperative Association, 2018).

Next, a model is developed to simulate the fishery dynamics and project future scenarios from 2024 to 2030 under different policy options. Specifically, this model can project aggregate net profit and the number of vessels for each size class given several assumptions: (1) the landings and price will be constant until 2030, (2) the current low-level abundance and eastward shift of migration route are likely to continue, (3) the market demand for saury is unlikely to change significantly, (5) all cost-related parameters will be constant for simplification, (6) vessels will exit at the end of a year if the net profit in their respective size class is negative, (7) the catch potential determines the exit sequence, with the vessel with the lowest catch potential exiting first, and (8) the remaining vessels will increase their harvest as some vessels exit. In principle, this model assumes that the available saury is “re-allocated” to the remaining fishers each year, with the variables of this model being the number of vessels for each size class. Please see the full report for details of the model.

Four policy options are proposed: (1) management change (Individual Transferable Quota: ITQ) (Anderson et al., 2019; Fina, 2005; NPFMC, 2017; Edward & Pinkerton, 2019), (2) partial permit termination (Squires, 2010; Demura, 2006; Tanaka, 2017; Fisheries Agency of Japan, n.d.c), (3) income support (Cisneros-Montemayor et al., 2016; Fisheries Agency of Japan, n.d.d), and (4) diversification (Pinsky and Mantua, 2014; Steneck et al., 2011;

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Szuwalski et al., 2023) for consideration, referring to case studies regarding fishery rationalization. Option (1) changes the management system so that inefficient fishers will sell their quota to more profitable fishers willing to pay more for the quota than the inefficient fishers would earn from the fishery. In Option (2), the government terminates the permits of some vessels in exchange for providing one-shot relief to the vessel owners.

This option assumes that the total amount of relief (3,885,670 thousand yen (KJPY)) for 52 exiting vessels will be shared with the government (1,726,964 KJPY) and remaining fishers (2,158,706 KJPY). Option (3) curtails fishing efforts by shortening the fishing period (from 6 months to 5 months) in exchange for giving out income support to the vessel owners from 2024 to 2028, expecting cost reduction combined with income support to make the net profits positive. The amount of income support per vessel is equivalent to two-thirds of monthly running costs (small: 3,988 KJPY, medium: 5,424 KJPY, and large: 13,183 KJPY).

The total income support for five years will be 4,082,308 KJPY. Option (4) aims to increase revenue by issuing new permits for catching alternative species in order to make up for the revenue loss of the saury fishery, with targeted alternative species being Japanese sardine (Sardinops melanostictus). This option assumes that all small and medium-sized vessels start catching sardines, while large-sized vessels are not allowed to diversify to avoid conflicts between other resource users and overfishing. Another important assumption is that annual sardine harvest and price are 17,109 ton and 1,183 JPY/kg, respectively, and will be constant until 2030. Projected scenarios under each option are shown in Figure 1.

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​ Figure 1. Projected scenarios under each option. Left is a time series of net profit. Right is a time series of vessel size composition.

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2. 4. Criteria and Analysis Analysis of each option employing eight criteria is performed: (1) profit gain, (2) impacts on the local community, (3) cost to government, (4) distributive equity, (5) procedural equity, (6) political feasibility, (7) uncertainty, and (8) duration. Equity criteria are included because, unlike conventional overfishing issues, the current economic crisis of this fishery is not solely responsible for saury fishers, given that climate change is a significant driver.

Criterion (1) considers how much profit implementing the proposed policies will gain by introducing cumulative net profit in KJPY, defined as the sum of total net profit from the saury fishery from 2024 to 2030 (Figure 2). Aside from the status quo, only the income support option expects a negative cumulative net profit, suggesting that subsidies can alleviate deficits but be unable to gain sufficient profits. On the other hand, the permanent quota option expects the largest profit gain because of consolidation.

Figure 2. Time series of total net profit (KJPY) for each policy option. SQ: Status quo, 1-MC: Management change (Policy 1), 2-PT: Partial permit termination (Policy 2), 3-IS: Income support (Policy 3), and 4-D: Diversification (Policy 4). Cumulative net profit is the sum of total net profit from 2024 to 2030.

Criterion (2) considers the estimated number of exiting vessels and crew members who were employed thereon, and introduces a scale (the most negative, negative, and the least negative) as a metric of impacts on the local community. The management change option will cause the most negative impacts on communities due to it having the highest unemployment level driven by consolidation. In contrast, the diversification option will have

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the least negative impacts, keeping the largest number of crews in the fishery among the proposed scenarios.

Criterion (3) measures the total cost of implementing each policy to the central government of Japan in KJPY. The management change and diversification options do not require additional governmental budget funding, while the partial permit termination option will cost an estimated 1,726,964 KJPY for relief to exiting fishers, and the income support option necessitates budget funding for income support, costing 4,082,308 KJPY. Criterion (4) gauges the extent to which the proposed policies equitably distribute benefits and costs among the saury fishers in terms of (A) the remaining fishers versus the exiting fishers and (B) among the three size classes by introducing a scale (high, medium, and low) as a metric of distributive equity. As for discussion (A), the exiting fishers in the status quo scenario will suffer from deficits without support, whereas the remaining fishers can eventually recover profits. In contrast, the partial permit termination is a highly equitable option because the exiting fishers can receive compensation from the government and the remaining fishers. The distributive equity of the diversification option is also high because the least fishers will exit under the scenario. As for discussion (B), Figure 3 reveals that the distributive equity of the management change option is low because this consolidation scenario will end up with the widest disparity in favor of the large class. In contrast, the diversification option is highly equitable because this policy will enable small and medium-sized vessels to increase revenue by catching sardines, keeping a substantial number of vessels in the fishery.

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Figure 3. Cumulative net profit (KJPY) breaking down into size classes for each policy option. S: small, M: medium, and L: large size class. SQ: Status quo, 1-MC: Management change (Policy 1), 2-PT: Partial permit termination (Policy 2), 3-IS: Income support (Policy 3), and 4-D: Diversification (Policy 4).

Criterion (5) measures the extent to which the proposed policies give the saury fishers room for proactive decision-making on whether to exit or remain in the fishery by introducing a scale (high, medium, and low) as a metric of procedural equity. In the income support scenario, fishers with deficits will have no choice but to exit despite income support. On the other hand, the management change policy enables fishers to choose between selling their quota to exit or continuing the fishery. The permit termination option will also allow fishers to decide whether to remain or exit.

Criterion (6) measures the extent to which the proposed policies are accepted by the saury fishers and decision-makers (politicians and administrative agency), by introducing a scale (high, medium, and low) as a feasibility metric. The management change option can be the least feasible because Japan has never implemented this type of ITQ management. Fishers may express concerns about consolidation driven by this policy, making decision-makers hesitant to carry out this option. In contrast, diversification will be the most feasible option because the Study Group has already suggested this option.

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Criterion (7) measures how much uncertainty is expected where the policy benefits reach the saury fishers by introducing a scale (high, medium, and low) as an uncertainty metric.

The permit termination and income support options are less uncertain because the government can control the implementation. The expected outcome of the diversification option is highly uncertain because of the uncertainty of the sardine stock.

Criterion (8) measures the estimated duration until the net profit from the fishery becomes positive, attributed to the policy option. The total profit summing up all size classes will become positive the first in the permit termination option (in 2025), followed by the management change and diversification (in 2026), and the income support and the status quo (in 2028).

2. 5. Trade-Offs The policy analysis reveals trade-offs among policy options (Table 1). The ITQ option projects the highest profit gain but the most negative impacts on the local community and with the widest disparity among vessel size classes due to consolidation. The permit termination option results in high unemployment, but the economic burden of exiting fishers is shared with the government and the remaining fishers. Also, the profitability of the fishery will recover in the shortest time with less uncertainty, but a substantial amount of the government budget investment is required. The income support option requires the largest governmental expenditure to alleviate fishers’ deficits, but it will end up with the lowest profit gain and a high level of unemployment. The diversification option expects no additional governmental budget and has the least negative impacts on local communities because of the fewest existing fishers. Even smaller-scale vessels can remain in the fishery thanks to diversification, allowing for supplemental revenues from alternative fish (Japanese sardine). One caveat of this option is the uncertainty of sardine stock status.

The policy analysis results suggest the diversification or permit termination options, while the author hopes that stakeholders swiftly start communication using this policy analysis by adding or modifying policy options and criteria, if necessary, discussing key trade-offs among policy options, and implementing the best option equitably.

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Table 1: Policy matrix summarizing policy analysis.

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3. Policy Analysis for Coastal Fisheries against Red Tide: Complementing the Mutual Aid System for Akkeshi Sea Urchin Harvesters 3. 1. Introduction Between September to November 2021, the Pacific coastal area of Hokkaido, Japan experienced a red tide event. Referred to as “Akashio”, the red tide was caused by harmful algae, Karenia selliformis. Massive die-offs of several species such as sea urchin, whelk, sea cucumber, and octopi, occurred during the same period. With damages estimated to be up to 9 billion yen, this was the worst fisheries disaster in Japan in terms of damage caused by a harmful algal bloom. In this section, we analyze policy options that mitigate the impact of future red tide events in Japanese coastal fisheries. We focus our analysis on coastal sea urchin harvesters in Akkeshi, Hokkaido. The three policy options we analyze include 1) modifying the mutual aid system to incorporate local governance, 2) subsidizing the establishment of community-based on-land hatcheries, and 3) subsidizing sea urchin farming. The criteria we use to analyze these policies are 1) effectiveness in mitigating the income loss of sea urchin fishers against future red tide events, 2) cost, 3) recovery prospects, 4) political feasibility, 5) distributional equity, and 6) environmental footprint. We use ethnographic methods, combining data collected through field interviews, media and archival data, and information provided by the Hokkaido Research Organization. The report provides an analysis of the trade-offs of each policy option against the criteria and summarizes implications for mitigating the impacts of red tide events in Japanese coastal fisheries.

3. 2. Background and Policy Problem 3.2.1 Red Tide (Harmful Algal Bloom) The Japanese call Harmful Algal Bloom “Akashio” as the seawater color changes in red when occurring. Red tide is a phenomenon caused by an abnormal increase in a single phytoplankton, which gives the surface of seawater a discolored appearance. When phytoplankton occur in large numbers, they have a significant impact on the survival of other aquatic organisms. It is believed that the plankton clogs the gills of the fish and suffocates them, and the neurotoxins produced by the plankton kill the marine creatures.

While toxicity has been confirmed for Karenia mikimotoi (Km thereafter), which causes red tides in western Japan, and Karenia brevis (Kb, thereafter), the cause of this red tide, Ocean Nexus Special Report | A Policy Analysis for Climate Adaptation in Japanese Fisheries

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Karenia selliformis (Ks, thereafter) is under investigation and, so far, no toxicity has been reported.

Researchers refer to climate change as one of the reasons behind the sudden surge in Ks on the Pacific coast of Hokkaido. Since the strong warm currents do not reach off the east coast of Hokkaido, seawater becomes stagnant (Yamaguchi, 2022). Because of this, red tides are more likely to occur along the east coast of Hokkaido in early autumn. Large-scale red tide outbreaks caused by dinoflagellates were recorded off the east coast of Hokkaido in 1972-74 and 1983-86 (Shimada, 2021). A continuous study of the plankton causing red tides in the Tokachi coastal region began in 1985. However, unlike the red tides that occur in the inner bays of Japan's main islands, which generally cause a lot of damage to fisheries, the red tides along the Tokachi coast have historically occurred in open estuarine coastal areas (Shimada, 2021).

In the 2000s, the number of reported red tide outbreaks increased in other areas of Hokkaido. Red tides caused by Km were observed in Hakodate Bay in 2015 and 2021, resulting in the death of fall salmon landed from mid-October to early November 2021.

Abalone farming also suffered from the 2021 Km outbreak in Hakodate area. As far as official and available records go, the 2015 red tide outbreak was the first recorded fish and shellfish die-off on the Hokkaido coast (Shimada, 2021). Km is found in warmer waters and reported as a cause of red tides in the Kyushu region and the Seto Inland Sea. Km is thought to have propagated northward on the warm currents and proliferated in Hakodate Bay, resulting in the red tide. Global warming is believed to be behind the Hakodate red tide outbreak and die-off problem in 2015, and the 2021 outbreak of red tide off the coast of East Hokkaido may be one of the effects of climate change on the coastal ecosystem (Yamaguchi, 2022).

Ks may have nourished themselves on the nutrient-rich seafloor and then proliferated at the surface, where there are no longer any rivals. Typhoons and such do not come to Hokkaido very often in 2021, and compared to previous years, it became a place where water tended to accumulate and stay put. The warm water near the sea surface became nutrient-poor, killing other plankton. However, the newly propagated Ks are equipped with a hair-like structure called a flagellum, which allows them to swim freely in the water. Among them, Ks species can move with flagella. It can replenish nutrients at the bottom of the sea where nutrients are high, and then return to the sea surface to perform photosynthesis. Pacific Coastal Hokkaido became the place where Ks could increase while other species could not (Yamaguchi, 2022).

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The negative impacts of Red Tides are not limited to commercial fisheries. HABs produce toxins that may risk human health. In addition to public health, HABs can cause significant socioeconomic damage to recreation and tourism, aquaculture, and the food market (WHOI, 2022). They can also affect local livelihoods, including employment opportunities, food sovereignty, and community-based gift economies.

Among many fishery species, short-spined sea urchin (ezobafun’uni, Stringlylocentroutus intermedius) was one of the most affected fisheries targeted species in Akkeshi, Eastern Hokkaido. Sea urchin harvesters in Akkeshi use the diving method and they engage in the harvesting activity only four months in a year. They self-regulate the harvest by implementing a no-harvest period and also spend one month transplanting and transferring juvenile and small sea urchins to the coastal environment.

After the red tide outbreak was confirmed in September 2021, sea urchin harvesters voluntarily stopped harvesting sea urchins due to the mass die-off of sea urchins at sea and the risk of severe resource depletion. In 2022, they harvested sea urchins in October and November for testing purposes only, and were able to harvest in December. The annual value of their sea urchins in 2020 was 216,834,000 yen; the value decreased to 81,581,000 yen (-62.38% compared to 2020) and 69,164,000 yen (-68.1%) in 2021 and 2022, respectively. Although the sea urchin fishery is relatively more profitable than most coastal fisheries, sea urchin harvesters have been forced to work in other fisheries or non-fishery jobs during the month in which they would have been harvesting, but chose not to do so for conservation reasons.

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Figure 4: Monthly Production and Annual Price of Short-spine Sea Urchins in Akkeshi (2016-2022) 3.2.2 The Japanese Mutual Aid System The Fisheries Mutual Aid Program has more than 60 years of history and achievements in Japan. The Fisheries Mutual Aid Program aims to ensure the reproduction of fisheries and contribute to the stability of fisheries management by compensating losses that small and medium-sized fishermen may suffer due to abnormal events or unforeseen accidents, such as losses when the catch is reduced due to poor catch. Although public funds are used, this is different from subsidies or grants, where the government provides direct compensation for damages suffered by fishers. It is a mutual aid program based on the spirit of mutual relief for small and medium fishers, using the insurance mechanism.

The Fisheries Mutual Aid Program functions as the core of four types of insurance: Fishing Mutual Aid, Aquaculture Mutual Aid, Selected Aquaculture Mutual Aid, and Fishing Facilities Mutual Aid. Mutual Aid for Aquaculture provides compensation for damage to aquaculture production caused by natural disasters, including red tide, and is a property damage insurance program similar to general property and fire insurance. The Mutual Aid for Fishing Facilities is also a property insurance scheme that covers fishing gear and

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aquaculture facilities. On the other hand, unlike non-life insurance, Mutual Aid for Fishing Catch and Mutual Aid for Specific Aquaculture are yield insurance schemes that compensate for the loss of production value due to poor catch, low prices and changes in oceanic conditions caused by poor quality.

3.2.3 The Policy Problem The policy problem is that under the current mutual aid program and compensation policy, sea urchin harvesters in Akkeshi remain too economically vulnerable to the effects of red tide. Several factors contribute to this problem. The first is that the mutual aid program is not available to fishers who engage in semi-domesticated fisheries, such as urchin diving, which transplants young urchins into coastal environments. Sea urchin diving groups purchase and release juvenile sea urchins, but they do not feed them; the released sea urchins live and grow in the natural coastal environment, although divers transplant sea urchins from one location to another to provide a better nutritional environment for the sea urchins. It differs from aquaculture in that its practice, known as semi-domestication or semi-cultivation, does not provide harvesters with the ability to control species targeted for fishing in coastal waters. And because it is not aquaculture that offers relative controllability and accountability of the fishery species that the fishers cultivate, the Mutual Aid for Aquaculture is not applicable.

In addition, the Mutual Aid Program for Fishing Catch provides compensation for the value lost due to low yields. Under the current system, this program does not cover losses associated with the purchase and loss of sea urchin seedlings. Due to their sustainable practice of harvesting sea urchins through juvenile release, transplantation and harvesting, their fishery is not categorized as either fishing or farming, resulting in inflexibility in providing tailored support to small-scale sea urchin diving and industry in Akkeshi through the Mutual Aid programs.

In addition, the current system of mutual aid disregards the authority of local fishing cooperatives, which are the local management unit of these fisheries. This makes it difficult for fishing cooperatives to make adaptive, community-based decisions that take advantage of their local knowledge of the fishery. The sea urchin diving group established their current fishing practices from past experiences of overfishing. They organize the reduction of operating boats to 3 by all 31 permit holders working together, choosing intragroup cooperation over intragroup competition. Such local institutional arrangement for sustainable harvesting practice of infinite coastal fishery resources makes it difficult for

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them to be enrolled in the mutual aid programs, leaving them financially insecure against unexpected environmental and economic events.

Finally, the current compensation policy focuses on the purchase of seedlings, which take several years to become profitable. While Akkeshi sea urchin harvesters appreciate this compensation system as it increases the recruitment of sea urchins in their coastal areas, they remain economically challenged and exposed to the threat of future red tide events due to the uncontrollability of their semi-domesticated urchins. In addition, the local capacity for seedling production is limited by the current facilities and distribution system.

Considering these factors contributing to the problem, we analyze three policy options that the Japanese government can consider to reduce the vulnerability of Akkeshi sea urchin harvesters to future red tide events.

3. 3. Policy Options Policy Option 1. Modifying the mutual aid program to incorporate local adaptability This option involves introducing local adaptive and governance processes into the existing fishery mutual assistance program. The goal of this option is to maximize the effectiveness of the top-down program by harnessing the adaptive benefits of community-based management. The central government will establish processes to identify and engage representatives from sea urchin fishing cooperatives in Akkeshi to reevaluate the terms of the mutual aid program. Together, stakeholders will engage in a deliberative process to redefine the terms of the program for these fisheries. Inclusive decision-making processes through community-based deliberation will be established so that local fishing cooperatives can participate in decisions regarding details such as when the mutual aid program will be offset, the scope and extent of coverage, expectations regarding operations, and so on.

The underlying assumption is that this inclusive process will allow fishing cooperatives to modify the terms of the mutual aid program in a way that meets the unique needs of their particular fishery.

Policy Option 2. Subsidizing the establishment of community-based on-land hatcheries Under this option, the government will subsidize the establishment of a community-based land-based sea urchin hatchery in Akkeshi. The goal of this option is to ensure that sea urchin seedlings are protected from future red tide and other extreme events. Currently, sea urchin fishers in Akkeshi raise seedlings in a land-based hatchery that is jointly funded by three communities. This has proven to be somewhat effective in mitigating the impacts of the 2021 red tide event. The underlying assumption for this option is that establishing a new

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on-land hatchery or expanding the existing tri-municipal seedling production facility will reduce reliance on other regions and provide greater production security in the event of future red tide events.

Policy Option 3. Educating on and Subsidizing sea urchin farming Under this option, the government will provide information and subsidies to promote sea urchin farming in the Akkeshi fishery. The goal of this option is to educate sea urchin harvesters on the benefits of farming and subsidize the initial start-up costs so that harvesters can make an informed decision to incorporate farming into their current semi-domesticated operations. Farming has proven to be less susceptible to red tide impacts than harvesting from the wild. However, several factors are causing harvesters to be reluctant to engage in sea urchin farming. The underlying assumption for this option is that knowledge and information about the benefits of aquaculture, as well as assistance with start-up costs, are needed to incentivize the transition. In addition, the establishment of sea urchin farming could provide an opportunity for Akkeshi sea urchin harvesters to be enrolled in the Mutual Aid for Aquaculture Program.

3. 4. Criteria We use six distinct criteria to assess the trade-offs of these policies: 1) effectiveness in mitigating the income loss of sea urchin harvesters against future red tide events, 2) cost to the government, 3) recovery prospects, 4) political feasibility, 5) distributional equity, and 6) environmental footprint. Each criterion is explained below.

Criteria 1: Effectiveness The report focuses on the policy problem that under the current mutual aid program and compensation policy, sea urchin harvesters remain too economically vulnerable to red tide impacts. The effectiveness criterion assesses the extent to which implementing the proposed policies will address this problem (Bardach & Patashnik, 2016). We define economic vulnerability in terms of income loss caused by red tide events. The policy options presented in our analysis focus on stabilizing the income of sea urchin fishers.

Using the 2021 Red Tide case as a baseline for the economic losses a red tide event will inflict on sea urchin harvesters in Akkeshi, we focus on how much the policy option mitigates income loss for the fishers.

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Criteria 2: Cost This criterion measures the estimated total cost of implementing each policy to the Japanese government in Japanese Yen and is qualitatively assessed on a scale of high, medium, and low.

Criteria 3: Recovery Prospects This criterion assesses the likelihood of returning to normal operations in the following season and is qualitatively assessed on a scale of high, medium, and low.

Criteria 4: Political Feasibility Various stakeholders have interests involved in the operation of sea urchin fisheries in Akkeshi. We define this criterion as the extent to which this policy will be endorsed for implementation by various stakeholders whose interests are interrelated in these fisheries.

Stakeholders include the government, fishing cooperatives, individual fishers, and industries. Challenges can arise in policy adoption and implementation if there is strong opposition from one or more stakeholder groups, leading to a policy that is not feasible. We use a scale of high, medium, and low to assess options against the criteria of political feasibility (Table 2).

Table 2: Political Feasibility Scale Political Feasibility The degree of a policy's endorsement by stakeholders A policy is favorable to all or most stakeholder groups, leading to little or no opposition and broad support for political endorsement.

Scale

Highly

A policy is more or less favorable to certain stakeholder groups and is expected to cause some opposition in other stakeholder groups, but to an extent that such

Medium

opposition can be resolved for political endorsement.

A policy is favorable to certain stakeholder groups leading to some or strong opposition from other stakeholder groups, to an extent that such opposition cannot

Low

be resolved for political endorsement.

Criteria 5: Distributive Equity According to Kim and de Buen Kalman (2025), “distributive equity gauges the extent to which a policy intentionally distributes its benefits, costs, rights, responsibilities, and risks

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within and among historically advantaged and disadvantaged groups”(p.16). This criterion acknowledges female and foreign workers in the fisheries industry as historically marginalized groups within fisheries and in Japan in general. We consider how the policy options can change the distribution of costs, risks and benefits for these groups. We use the following distributive equity scale adapted from de Buen Kalman and Blume (2021) to assess policy options against this criterion (Table 3).

Table 3: Distributive Equity Scale Distributive Equity The distribution of a policy's costs and benefits A policy maximizes benefits to female and foreign workers who are more vulnerable to red tide impacts while most costs are absorbed by the other fishermen groups and the broader society.

A policy allocates significant benefits to female and foreign workers who are more vulnerable to red tide impacts while a significant portion of the costs are absorbed by other fishermen groups and the broader society.

Policy option has a "do no harm" neutral effect in terms of allocating costs and benefits between historically marginalized female and foreign workers affected by red tide and other fishermen groups and the broader society.

Scale

Highly equitable

Moderately equitable

No discernable equity impact

A policy allocates some benefits to female and foreign workers who are more vulnerable to red tide impacts while also allocating a significant portion of the costs

Moderately

to them, but not to an extent that threatens equity gains from previous policy

inequitable

initiatives.

A policy spares societal costs by minimizing benefits and/or maximizing costs to female and foreign workers who are more vulnerable to red tide impacts, to an extent that erodes equity gains from previous policy initiatives.

Highly inequitable

Criteria 6: Environmental Footprint We also consider the need to assess the potential environmental footprint of implementing each policy option. We consider how the policy options could cause additional environmental pressures, including the spatial dimension (e.g. environmental stressors on the local ecosystem) to the temporal dimension (e.g. increase in environmental uncertainty in the future), on a scale of high, medium, and low).

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3. 5. Analysis Table 4 summarizes our analysis of three policy options.

Table 4: Policy Analysis Matrix Effectiveness

Modifying

High

Cost

Low

Recovery

Political

Distributional

Environmental

Prospects

Feasibility

Equity

Footprint

Low

High

Moderately

Low

the mutual

inequitable

aid system Subsidizing

Medium

High

Low

High

on-land

No discernible

High

equity impact

hatcheries Subsidizing

Medium

Medium

farming

Medium

Medium

Moderately

Medium

equitable

Policy Option 1: Our analysis suggests that the policy option will cost the Japanese government the least among the three options. If the Akkeshi sea urchin diving group is enrolled in the current mutual aid program, it is estimated that they will receive approximately 206,581,000 yen, based on the three-year average of their annual production value from the previous five years, excluding the lowest and highest years. Assuming a subsidy rate of 65% from the national treasury, this policy option will cost approximately 134,277,650 yen per year for payment. And since it takes three years for juvenile sea urchins to grow to marketable size, the estimated total cost of implementing Policy Option 1 will be approximately 402,833,000 yen, assuming that payment under the Mutual Aid Program will continue for three years.

Policy option 1 also has high political feasibility as the Akkeshi sea urchin harvesting group has already been working in the cooperative system. In addition, policy option 1 will have the least environmental footprint compared to the other two options, which may have an impact on local ecosystems.

Policy Option2: Currently, the supply of sea urchin seedlings does not meet the demand, especially after the red tide disaster in 2011. To solve this problem, it is necessary to increase the production capacity of sea urchin seedlings by expanding the existing tri-municipal sea urchin seedling center or establishing a new municipal production center.

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Increasing production and introducing juvenile sea urchins into the diving areas will provide both physical and psychological support for Akkeshi sea urchin harvesters. The political feasibility of this option is high, as they are already practicing the purchase and release of sea urchin seedlings with the support of the subsidiary. The increase in sea urchin production will also increase job security for those who do not have commercial fishing permits, such as women and foreign workers employed in local seafood processing companies, including those specializing in sea urchin packaging.

Policy Option 3: Policy Option 3, which supports the introduction of sea urchin farming in Akkeshi, has the most positive recovery prospects of the three options. Because caged sea urchins can be moved and evacuated from red tide waters, sea urchin farmers can continue to produce sea urchins. Farming sea urchins will also allow them to be included in the Mutual Assistance Program for Aquaculture, just as neighboring fishing communities such as Hamanaka do with their sea urchin farming.

Option 3 also has the most positive prospects for distributive justice. Sea urchin farming can be conducted in or near fishing ports rather than at sea. Unlike diving, farming, which requires daily care of sea urchins such as feeding and recording their growth, will create additional employment opportunities for local women and foreign workers in the Akkeshi area.

3. 6. Trade-offs and Discussion Every policy intervention involves trade-offs. The weakness of these three policy options is the prospects for recovery. This is due to the nature of the sea urchin fishery. Sea urchins take several years to grow to a marketable size, regardless of production methods.

Purchasing and releasing mature sea urchins into coastal waters could be a quick solution to offset and mitigate the economic and ecological damage caused by red tide. However, this is a short-term solution that does not have a positive impact on local resilience.

We need to consider an effective policy intervention to increase local adaptability and resilience while systemizing compensation and mitigation for an unexpected disaster like red tide. The diversification and strengthening of sea urchin population recruitment at the local/community level is the best approach to address this need, while the modification of the current Mutual Aid Program policy to make it more flexible and adaptable to a diversity of coastal fisheries enhances the socio-economic security of sea urchin harvesters and

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others related to the sea urchin industry, such as onshore women and foreign nationals working in the seafood processing and distribution sectors.

One specific proposal we make here is to renovate and utilize the facilities at the Hokkaido National Fisheries Research Institute in Akkeshi to enhance local adaptability and resilience to future red tide events. HNFRI's Akkeshi Station is now closed, but its facilities are already equipped for hatchery operations. Renovation and use of this facility could be seriously considered for implementation of Policy Options 2 and 3 analyzed here.

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4. Policy Analysis for Aquaculture against Ocean Acidification: Raising Awareness and Promoting Sustainable Aquaculture among Hinase Oyster Farmers 4. 1. Introduction Ocean acidification (OA) is a serious threat to marine shelled mollusks, including oysters, scallops, clams, and so forth because the increase in seawater acidity (measured by declining pH) hinders the growth and calcification of marine shelled mollusks and leads to high mortality at the larval stage (Kroeker et al., 2013, Waldbusser et al., 2013). According to the early evidence, OA has inflicted significant damage on the aquaculture industry. For example, because of severe shellfish larvae die-offs due to ocean acidification in the Pacific Northwest, the United States has experienced a loss of $270 million in revenue and 3200 jobs per year in the shellfish aquaculture industry in Washington state alone (Washington State Blue Ribbon Panel on Ocean Acidification, 2012).

As the third largest global oyster aquaculture producer (Botta et al., 2020), Japanese oyster production in the year 2022 was 165,400 metric tonnes (Ministry of Agriculture, Forest and Fisheries, 2023). Hinase is located in one of the top five oyster production prefectures, Okayama prefecture. Currently, there are 94 oyster farmers in Hinase waters, generating 8 million annual revenues in 2009-2019 based on unpublished data from Hinase Fishery Cooperative. However, continuous in-situ monitoring and numerical modeling studies project that under the RCP 8.5 (business-as-usual) scenario, by the end of this century, there will be too little oyster production for sustainable farming as a result of low values of pH and aragonite saturation rate (Ωarag) in Hinase waters. Yet, Hinase oyster farmers remain too underprepared to address the impacts of OA. For example, almost half of oyster farmers stated that they barely know about OA in the questionnaire survey. In this report, we focus on the policy problem that Hinase oyster farmers remain too underprepared, both in terms of awareness and sustainable aquaculture to address the impacts of OA. Therefore, we present a review of policy options that the Japanese government can consider to address the problem.

In this report, we take a two-pronged approach to address the impacts of OA on Hinase oyster farms through a policy review. First, we review a set of policies that focus on raising OA awareness among Hinase oyster farmers. The second set of policies focuses on promoting sustainable farming practices that mitigate OA impacts. The intended audience

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of this report are policymakers in the Fisheries Agency of Japan under the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries of Japan who manage the Japanese aquaculture sectors. For each policy goal, we review a set of effective policy options that have been implemented in foreign contexts and assess their transferability to Hinase. While evidence on the performance of OA policies is limited due to the short timeframe of their implementation, a survey of available policy options that have been implemented will be informative to policymakers in the Japanese government at the national, prefectural, and local levels as they seek to raise awareness of OA and promote sustainable farming practices in the aquaculture sector.

4. 2. Policy Options and Applications 4.2.1 Policy Options to Raise OA Awareness A direct way to address the goal of raising OA awareness among oyster farmers is to provide them with knowledge and information. Our survey data shows that over half of the interviewed oyster farmers have not heard about or barely know about OA, suggesting that the provision of information could serve as an effective tool to raise awareness. Information is a policy tool that government officials can use to achieve desired policy outcomes by influencing citizen’s attitudes, beliefs, and behaviors (Salamon, 2002). The use of information as a policy tool can involve generating new information or using information that governments already possess and disseminating it to those who want or need that information (Salamon, 2002). It can also involve equipping certain populations with the capacity to generate and disseminate information on the government’s behalf (Salamon, 2002). In the past, Hinase oyster farmers have participated in collecting samples to monitor ocean conditions. Oyster farmers have expressed interest in receiving updates regarding the outcomes of monitoring activities they have been involved in. This suggests there is a high likelihood that knowledge sharing about OA will be favorably accepted by Hinase oyster farmers. Thus, we analyze the three policies below that target raising OA awareness among Hinase oyster farmers.

Policy Option 1. Encourage Monitoring and Data Sharing Through Community Grants The Japanese government will partner with the local government of Hinase to advertise the importance of monitoring to oyster farmers and subsidize costs for equipment purchases such as pH sensors to promote monitoring efforts among Hinase oyster farmers. Improving water quality monitoring, including carbonate chemistry data, directly informs oyster farmers of the environmentally stressful conditions. This allows for adaptive responses and leads to a greater understanding of how water quality affects shellfish health and mortality, Ocean Nexus Special Report | A Policy Analysis for Climate Adaptation in Japanese Fisheries

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which can also encourage oyster farmers to get involved with more advanced data collection beyond pH levels.

The Oregon Ocean Monitoring Group, formed in 2016, is composed of ocean monitoring experts and stakeholders consisting of state and federal resource managers, academics, industry, and NGOs. Operating with a vision of an ocean change monitoring network in Oregon, the group was successful in engaging local stakeholders to strategize on using information from a series of studies and monitoring projects as they plan for resilience in the iconic Oregon estuary.

The Japan Ministry of the Land, Infrastructure, and Transport has subsidized prefectures and designated cities to install automatic water quality monitoring systems. Thus, the current Water Quality Monitoring System for Public Waters can be used to conduct OA monitoring and share the data with aquaculture farmers, requiring little additional investment. Challenges will remain in eliciting buy-in and educating oyster farmers to partake in the monitoring efforts.

Policy Option 2. Production and Dissemination of Informational Resources on OA and Shellfish Health The Japanese government will produce and disseminate informational resources on OA and shellfish health to Hinase oyster farmers. Tasks will include creating outreach materials highlighting OA science and implications for oysters and hosting seminars to identify OA drivers (heavy rainfall, freshwater influx, etc.) that can lead to deformed larvae, poor adult growth, and mortality so that oyster farmers can recognize and be more responsive to environmental conditions in early stages of OA incidents.

The NOAA Ocean Acidification Program (OAP) provides the Ocean Acidification Resources for Communicators & Educators webinar series to reach educators, stakeholders, and rights holders across the country and provide tools for them to engage in OA education. The webinar series is widely used as an educational resource for OA education in the U.S. Study groups and work seminars have been previously hosted by fishery extension officers for Hinase oyster farmers to promote learning about environmental issues. The automaticity of this option is high as the existing channels for hosting study groups and work seminars can be leveraged to disseminate OA-related knowledge. Specific materials about OA and its potential impacts on shellfish growth can be added to these study groups and work seminars to raise OA awareness among oyster farmers and build the capacity to identify

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early signals reflected from larval stages. Fishery extension officers can act as stewards for oyster farmers to access this information.

Policy Option 3 Research Grant on eelgrass restoration and its use as an OA management tool The Japanese government will provide research grants to a local university/research institution to conduct a research project on the benefits of co-culturing oysters with eelgrass/marine plants as a potential strategy to mitigate OA impacts and expand sustainable oyster farming. The research team will host a community-engaged event to share research findings with Hinase oyster farmers.

An experimental study conducted in Oregon in 2015 as part of a USDA project demonstrated that eelgrass can modify water chemistry and have positive effects on the growth of oyster spats via photosynthesis and carbon dioxide uptake. Yet, uncertainty regarding the effectiveness of eelgrass in mitigating OA effects remains high, especially regarding its long-term impacts.

Scientific evidence showing the benefits of eelgrass restoration on oyster production to the Hinase oyster farmers remains scarce. Japanese oyster farmers expressed confusion about eelgrass benefits and believed that eelgrass already grows too much and is becoming driftweeds. Research in the Japanese context is required to establish the impacts of eelgrass restoration on oyster production for Hinase oyster farmers. The results must be communicated to Hinase oyster framers to inform them of the relationship between eelgrass restoration and oyster farming, particularly in terms of mitigating OA impacts.

4.2.2 Policy Options to Promote Sustainable Aquaculture Effective and cost-efficient farm management measures are indispensable for sustainable aquaculture. OA adaptive strategies related to farm management include a series of measures to improve operations efficiency for business success, such as introducing spatial/temporal flexibility in operations, diversifying cultured species, culturing methods, and gear types, and exploring diverse marketing channels (Ward et al., 2022; Green et al., 2023). In this section, we review policies implemented to serve such purposes. For communities impacted by environmental change, networking has been regarded as an adaptive strategy that builds connections and facilitates knowledge sharing across different stakeholder groups, including scientists, policymakers, regulators, other growers, and local community members (Barnes et al., 2016; Cross et al., 2019; Keil et al., 2021). Thus, we also

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review a policy option on strengthening the cross-sector networking function of fishing coops to enhance sustainable aquaculture in the community of Hinase oyster farmers.

Policy Option 1. Subsidies to Establish an On-land Hatchery The Japanese government will provide Hinase subsidies to establish and operate an on-land oyster hatchery. On-land hatcheries can ensure the supply of oysters in multiple life cycle stages and size classes and prevent the mortality of oysters in early life stages due to OA and other environmental stressors. Self-operated hatcheries also reduce the need to collect seedlings from the natural environment and protect against the negative impacts of regional seedling shortages.

Alaska’s only shellfish hatchery, Alutiiq Pride Shellfish Hatchery in Seward, has contributed to mitigating the oyster spat shortage in Alaska. It has also served as a successful research facility, providing invaluable support to farmers and other coastal residents. Meanwhile, challenges due to low marine water temperatures, which lead to high energy costs and higher oyster spat costs remain outstanding.

Some oyster farmers in Hinase expressed reluctance to purchase oyster seedlings from overseas or other prefectures due to risks of disease or bacterial influence, different culturing methods, and different tastes of oysters. Though oyster farmers can purchase enough seedlings from Miyagi and Hiroshima prefectures at present, there is a high possibility that seedling shortages may occur soon owing to the high demand for oyster production and acute environmental changes such as OA. Therefore, building an on-land hatchery could be a more suitable solution for Hinase oyster farmers to adapt to the OA-related environmental changes. Concerns among oyster farmers regarding financial, labor, and safety issues that are associated with an on-land hatchery establishment must be addressed.

Policy Option 2. Species Diversification Grants The Japanese government will provide direct grants to Hinase oyster farmers to diversify their aquaculture species. Culturing numerous, additional, or alternative species can help farmers enter new markets and help ensure alternative income is available if oyster production does poorly or is impacted by a mortality event due to OA. Researchers and shellfish farmers in Maine tested the viability of quahog and oyster polyculture as a way to diversify shellfish farms by using the vertical space of the water column. This project was replicated on three oyster farms in mid-coast Maine with

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continuous monitoring of quahog cohorts in 2017-2018 (Kramer, 2020). Overall, this project successfully integrated a new shellfish species on three existing oyster farms, and seven additional farms are now growing quahogs.

An experimental study in Japan (Yokohama, 2015) found that sea cucumber (A. japonicus) juveniles cultured below the Pacific oyster raft grew well, and exhibited a high survival rate (100%), indicating the possibility of co-culturing oysters and sea cucumbers. Growing sea cucumbers are expected to serve a role in bioremediation to benefit oyster farming while also generating additional income. Large-scale trials must be conducted to establish the Integrated multi-trophic aquaculture (IMTA) system composed of Pacific oysters and A. japonicus.

Policy Option 3. Revision of Regulations on Site-specific buffering The Japanese government will revise Japan’s Waste Management and Public Cleansing Act which currently regulates spreading oyster shells in the natural environment as a form of illegal dumping in Japan. This will allow Hinase oyster farmers to use oyster shells as a natural buffer against OA. Adding natural buffers to the environment can enhance carbonate chemistry, for example, crushed shell hash and soda ash (Clements and Chopin, 2017).

In Washington, shellfish companies (Taylor Shellfish, Mook Sea Farm, and others) began adapting to the acidified incoming seawater by adding soda ash to raise the pH to an optimal level for oyster farming. The effects are immediate, resulting in better larval production than before. However, a study found that soda ash pH buffering during early development may compromise later-life stages under stress conditions.

A study in the Niger Delta, Nigeria demonstrated the buffering efficiency of oyster shells on acidic borehole water for fish farming. Laboratory experiments and field studies support that buffering sediments with crushed shells can increase bivalve recruitment by raising the pH (~0.3) and saturation rate of surface sediment (Green et al., 2009, 2013). Oyster shell buffers are cheap and safe for aquaculture; no effects of shell hash in the water on the growth of oysters in later-life stages have been detected.

Some oyster farmers in Hinase have suggested spreading oyster shells in the water to defeat OA impacts in the questionnaire survey (Pang et al., unpublished), implying oyster farmers would be accepting of this option, given the change in regulations.

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Policy Option 4. Relocation Subsidies The Japanese government will subsidize oyster farmers who are willing to relocate to other geographical locations that may be more suitable for oyster aquaculture considering local environmental changes (Greenhill et al., 2020). Applications will be accepted voluntarily.

Eligibility criteria and detailed terms guiding relocation and resettlement will be developed.

In North Carolina, one of the climate adaptation options in practice is to relocate or acquire more leases, allowing farmers to move shellfish to different sites based on water quality and time of year. This practice has been successfully implemented, despite the potential risks of disease and parasite transferal associated with moving oyster seed, stock, and equipment.

Although some Hinase oyster farmers mentioned that they would like to move to other prefectures to conduct oyster aquaculture for better production performance, concerns related to the loss of the essence of Hinase local culture and the local economy were also raised during the in-person interviews (Pang et al., unpublished).

Policy Option 5. Strengthen the Cross-sector Networking Function of Oyster Coops The Japanese government will facilitate the development of collaborative networks by bringing together actors from government, industry, nonprofits, academia, and communities to engage in OA awareness efforts such as information sharing, building best practices for sustainable farming, communicating policy and scientific needs in the Hinase waters, and innovating operations such as diversifying marketing channels. OA is a wicked problem that requires the collaboration of various stakeholders across sectors and organizational boundaries. Thus, the resources required to effectively address OA-related issues are often dispersed across sectoral and organizational boundaries. To promote the pooling of resources to overcome fragmented, piecemeal efforts, governments can act as platforms to promote collaborative efforts within Oyster Coops in Hinase.

U.S. regional coastal acidification networks (CANs) work with scientists and stakeholder communities to identify knowledge gaps and information needs and recommend regional priorities for monitoring and research. They also facilitate engagement and information sharing between researchers and stakeholders, share best practices for observations and data collection, promote data sharing, develop outreach and synthesis materials, and serve as a resource hub for OA information in the region (Newton et al., 2015).

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To promote the pooling of resources to overcome fragmented, piecemeal efforts, governments can act as platforms to promote collaborative efforts within Oyster Coops in Hinase. Based on the questionnaire survey with Hinase oyster farmers, “Fish coop” was the top information source that fishermen/farmers would turn to learn more about the OA impacts, followed by scientists. Thus, to build up a strong network for information sharing and technical support, other actors must be better engaged in the network. One opportunity is to utilize the local fisher’s market “Gomino-iti” in Hinase to innovate marketing strategies beyond the coop-to-industry model so that the local residents in Hinase could engage more with the oyster industry and the associated environmental issues. Diversifying network actors can add resilience in cases of future OA attacks.

4. 3 Summary and Future Outlooks In this section, we reviewed policy options to promote OA awareness and sustainable farming practices among Hinase oyster farmers. The policy options were suggested based on cases from other countries (mainly U.S.), however, we analyze the achievements and challenges and assess the transferability of these policies to the Japanese context, considering existing resources or facilities in Japan. For example, we suggested conducting OA monitoring by leveraging current automatic water quality monitoring systems, which would require little additional investment. To increase the diversity of income sources for local farmers, we proposed to culture sea cucumber (A. japonicus) together with Pacific oysters based on an experimental study in Japan. Networking is a crucial way to bridge informational gaps among farmers, scientists, and other stakeholders.

To enhance farmers’ capability to adapt to OA through the joint efforts of different actors in the oyster industry, we suggested strengthening the cross-sector networking to improve operational efficiency, diversify marketing channels, and produce outreach materials for farmers to raise ocean acidification awareness.

This policy review took the oyster aquaculture in the Hinase area as an example but has the potential to be applied to other regions in Japan facing the potential threats of acute environmental stressors in the near future. Joint efforts between Japanese governments and shellfish farmers are necessary to overcome future OA threats and sustain aquaculture production and economy. The policy options reviewed in this report are guided by cost-efficient, human-centered, and locally-oriented design principles. We believe this policy review can encourage an equitable and inclusive decision-making working pattern in the future management of fish coops at both the local and national scale.

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