Ocean Nexus Special Report - A Policy Analysis for Climate Adaptation in Japanese Fisheries

CLIMATE ADAPTATION

A Policy Analysis for Climate Adaptation in Japanese Fisheries

CREDITS OVERVIEW

Yoshitaka Ota, Ph D

Yulan Kim, Ph D

Yuto Furuzono

Shingo Hamada, Ph D

Yumeng Pang, Ph D

This report examines climate change adaptation strategies for Japan’s offshore, coastal, and aquaculture fisheries through an equity-centered lens It analyzes key policy trade-offs and offers recommendations to strengthen support for vulnerable fishers and farmers, advance environmental justice, and promote sustainable, climate-resilient fisheries across Japan’s diverse coastal communities

YoshitakaOta YulanKim

YutoFuruzono ShingoHamada YumengPang

OceanNexusSpecialReport|2025

oceannexus.org

ExecutiveSummary

Japanplaysakeyroleintheworldʼsproductionandconsumptionofseafood In2021,the fishingindustryisestimatedtohavegeneratedover637billionJapaneseyenforthe countryʼsGDPKlein,2024,andtheJapanesegovernmentranksasoneofthetop spendersgloballyintermsofpublicsectorsupportforthefisheriessectorOECD,2022. Additionally,Japanranksthehighestinpercapitaseafoodconsumptionglobally, constitutingoneofthetopthreemarketsforseafoodGuillenetal.,2019;Swartzetal., 2010

ClimatechangeisrapidlychangingJapanesefisheries,whichhavelongbeenasignificant economic and cultural part of Japanese life Thistimeofchangepresentsanopportunity for the Japanese government to reconsider its approach to fisheries management Particularly, it presents an opportunity to center equity values in fisheries management, which have traditionallybeenoverlookedrelativetootherpublicvaluessuchaseconomy, effectiveness, and efficiency. As climate impacts disproportionately disadvantage marginalized populations in fisheries, it is crucial to incorporate an environmental justice perspective into policymaking This time of changeservesasanopportunitytodismantle long-standinginstitutionsthathavebeenperpetuatingsocialinequities

This report presents a policy analysis for climate adaptation in Japanese fisheries The policy analysis report is prepared for the Fisheries Agency of Japan The objective is to provide the Japanese government with an assessment of policy options that they can consider for climate change adaptation. Findings are discussed in the form of tradeoffs between policy options. We seek to promote equitable policymaking by incorporating equityassessmentsintoourpolicyanalysis

Japanese domestic marine fisheries can be classified into three categories: offshore, coastal, and aquaculture Climate change impacts all three types of fisheries Spanning across species and locations, the catch of certain offshore fisheries has been in rapid decline since 2010 due to unfavorable ocean environments Furuzono, 2024. Coastal fisheries and aquaculture have been facing other forms of acute and persistent climate impacts,suchasredtideeventsandthreatsofoceanacidification.Thisreportconsistsof three distinct policy analyses for offshore fisheries, coastal fisheries, and aquaculture, addressinguniquechallengesthateachtypeoffisheryfacesduetoclimatechange

The analysis for offshore fisheries focuses on Pacific saury The policy problem is that there is too little profit from the fisheriestosustainthelivelihoodsofallthecurrentsaury fishers We analyze rationalization strategies for saury fishers Focusing on the2021Red

Tide event that impacted the sea urchin harvesters inAkkeshi,Hokkaido,theanalysisfor coastal fisheries addresses the policy problem thatunderthecurrentmutualaidprogram and compensation policy, sea urchin harvesters in Akkeshi remain too economically vulnerable to the impacts of red tide The policy options explore how to improve the existing safety net forAkkeshiseaurchinharvesters Theanalysisforaquaculturetakesa two-pronged approach, focused on promoting ocean acidification awareness among Hinase oyster farmers on the one hand, and adaptation strategies on the other The analysis focuses on the problem that Hinase oysterfarmersremaintoounderpreparedto address the impacts of ocean acidification, both in terms of awareness and sustainable aquaculture.Thethreeanalysesemployasuiteofdistinctmethodologiestoexplorepolicy optionsforclimatechangeadaptationandanalyzetheirtrade-offs

AuthorBios

Dr YoshitakaOtaisthefounderofNipponFoundationOceanNexus,ascholarlynetworkof oceanresearcherswhodevotedtheirresearchtoadvanceoceanequity AttheUniversity ofRhodeIsland,Dr OtaisaProfessorofMarineAffairs Dr OtagraduatedUniversity CollegeLondonwithPh.D.inAnthropologyandworkedinuniversitiesandresearch institutesoftheUK,Japan,CanadaandtheUSasaresearcherandprofessor.Hehasover 100researchpublications,bookchaptersandreports.Dr.OtahasheldtheProfessorof PracticepositionattheSchoolofMarineandEnvironmentalAffairsinUniversityof WashingtonandhashadvariousvisitingandaffiliatepositionsinUSandCanada Healso hastheExecutiveMastersofPublicAdministrationfromEvansPolicySchoolatthe UniversityofWashington.

Dr.YulanKimisapolicyresearchfellowatOceanNexus.SheholdsaPh.D.inPublicPolicy and Management from the University of Washington. Her work focuses on public management and equitable policy analysis. In the context of ocean governance, shehas focused on conducting policy analysis for fisheries management in response to climate change impacts She collaborates with ocean scholars to introduce policy-driven and equity-orientedperspectivesintoresearchonmarineaffairs

YutoFuruzonohasworkedfortheFisheriesAgencyofJapansince2014 Afterengagingin domesticfisheriesmanagement,aquaculturepromotion,multilateralenvironmentaltreaties, etc., he applied to a two-year study abroad program sponsored by the government of Japan. He got a research opportunity at the UniversityofWashington'sSchoolofMarine and Environmental Affairs SMEA. He wrote a thesis onpolicyanalysisregardingclimate adaptation in Japanese fisheries and graduated from SMEA in 2024 with a Master's in MarineAffairs Thisreportdrawsfrompartsofhisthesis

Dr ShingoHamadaisaprofessoroffoodstudiesattheFacultyofLiberalArts,OsakaShoin WomenʼsUniversity,Osaka,Japan Hisresearchrevolvesaroundtheenvironmentalhistory and cultural politics of seafood in coastal communities in the North Pacific. Trained in anthropology, he has conducted ethnographic fieldwork in Fukui, Hokkaido, Southeast Alaska,andNortheastSweden.HispublicationsincludeSeafood:fromOceantothePlate, and several articles in English and Japanese on coastal conservation, marine policy,and gastronomic placemaking in artisanal fisheries He holds a PhD in Anthropology from IndianaUniversity,andhisresearchhasbeensupportedbytheFulbrightJapan,theJapan Society of the Promotion of Science, the US National Science Foundation, and Wenner-GrenFoundation.

Dr. Yumeng Pang holds a Ph.D. in Aquatic Bioscience from theUniversityofTokyo.Asa fisheriesbiologist,shehasbeenfocusingontheimpactsofchangingoceanconditionson marine organisms and ecosystems and its associations with fisheries/aquaculture productions ShehasparticipatedintheJapanOceanAcidificationOAadaptationproject since 2022 HerworkincludesreviewingliteraturesonglobalOAresearch,learningabout the latest OA monitoring techniques and introducing them to Japan, gathering and analyzing data on potential OA impacts on oysteraquacultureinJapan,and collaborating with Japanese local shellfish farmers to buildatailoredOAadaptiveframeworkbasedon theirneedsandchallenges.

Acknowledgments

Weextendourheartfeltgratitudefortheinvaluablesupportandcollaborationprovidedby theJapanesegovernment,organizations,andagencies,particularlytheMinistryof Agriculture,ForestryandFisheriesandtheFisheriesAgencyofJapan,whosefinancial supportmadeourpolicyanalysisonJapaneseoffshorefisheriespossible.Specialthanks gotoJapanErimoFishingCooperativesandAkkeshiFishingCooperativesfortheirdata andinsights,whichwereinstrumentaltoouranalysisofcoastalfisheriesfacingredtide challenges,aswellastotheSatoumiResearchInstituteandtheHinaseoysterfarmersfor sharingtheirknowledgeandexperiencesfromthelocaloysterindustry,enrichingour policyanalysisofJapaneseaquacultureinthefaceofoceanacidification

WearealsodeeplygratefultotheNipponFoundationOceanNexusCenterforfostering connectionsandunitingresearcherstoaddressJapanesefisheryandaquaculture challengeswithinaglobalcontext.Inparticular,wethankProfessorYoshitakaOtaforhis invaluableguidance,ProfessorWilfSwartzforhisconstructivefeedbackonthedesignof ourpolicyanalysis,ProfessorAndresCisneros-Montemayorforhisassistancewith pertinentliterature,andDr KiseiTanakaforinsightfuldiscussionsonclimatechange Our appreciationalsogoestoKarinOtsukaTrudoandArielWangfortheirdedicatedresearch support,Dr SiemeBossierandReubenMartinezfortheirfeedback,andAssociate ProfessorEmeritusDavidFluhartyatSMEAforhisthoughtfulsuggestionsandguidance.

IntroductiontoNipponFoundationOceanNexus

AtNipponFoundationOceanNexus,ourmissionistoestablishsocialequityatthecenter ofoceangovernance Transformationalchangebeginswithunderstandinghowour relationshipwiththeoceandeeplyaffectssocialjusticeandequity Guidedbyprinciplesof equityandjustice,weconnectscholarsworldwidetosharestoriescenteredaround historicallymarginalizedperspectives.Researchingtheinterconnectionsbetweeninequities uniquetoeachcontextandunderstandingthegovernanceoftheoceansiscoretoour oceanequityresearchandcommunicationsstrategy.Ourworkholdspowerfulinterests accountablefortheconsequencesofsystemicinequities AtNipponFoundationOcean Nexus,weaspiretocreateequitableoceansforhumanity VisitOceannexusorgtolearn moreaboutNipponFoundationOceanNexusoceanequityresearch

Introduction

Climatechangeimpactsarerapidlytransformingtheoceanenvironment,leadingtothe redistributionofmarineresourcesbothgeographicallyandquantitatively Theseshifts affectfishstocklocationsandproductivity,profoundlyimpactingnationsdependenton fisheriesandaquaculture.Asamajorglobalproducerandconsumeroffisheryproducts withrichmarineresources,Japanislikelytoexperiencesignificantimpacts.Dueto favorablegeographicconditions,Japaneseterritorialwatersandexclusiveeconomiczones EEZsencompasssomeoftheworldʼsmostproductivefishinggroundsMakino,2011 Naturally,fisheryandaquacultureproductshavebeenaneconomicallyandculturally importantpartoftheJapanesewayoflife Japan'smarinecapturefisheriesproductionis estimatedtohavegeneratedover637billionJapaneseyenforthecountryʼsGDPin2021 Klein,2024.Inadditiontoitsextensivefishproduction,Japanisalsoamajormarketfor fish.In2022,Japanimportedanestimated2.22milliontonsoffisheryproductsworth$15 billion,rankingastheworldʼsthird-largestimporteroffisheryproductsKitada,2023

While climate change impacts are context-specific, they underscore the urgent need for policy-basedadaptationstrategies Recognizingthis,thisreporthasbeenpreparedforthe FisheriesAgencyofJapantoprovideapolicyanalysisofadaptationoptionsavailabletothe Japanese government for addressing climate change in its fisheries sector The report consistsofthreedistinctpolicyanalysesforJapaneseoffshorefisheries,coastalfisheries, andaquaculture.

Section 2 presents a policy analysis for Japanese offshore fisheries, considering rationalization strategies for saury fisheries. Since2010,therehasbeenarapiddeclinein thecatchofoffshorePacificsaury Thishasledtothepolicyproblemthatthereistoolittle profitfromthefisheriestosustainthelivelihoodsofallthecurrentsauryfishers Toaddress this problem, we focus on policy options of 1 management change of the current quota system,2partialpermittermination,3incomesupport,and4speciesdiversification.The trade-offsoftheseoptionsareassessedusingeightdistinctcriteria:1estimatedprofitgain, 2 impacts on the local community through the unemployment of fishers, 3 cost to the government, 4 distributive equity, 5 procedural equity, 6 political feasibility, 7 uncertainty, and 8 duration We use data sets of total landings and revenues (collected from the industry), catch quota share (sourced from the government), and costs (quoted from documents of a government-funded fishery-reform project) to quantitatively model theperformanceofeachoptiontoassesstheirtrade-offs.

Section3presentsapolicyanalysisforJapanesecoastalfisheries,focusingontheimpacts of the 2021 Red Tide event on sea urchin fishery in Eastern Hokkaido,withAkkeshiasa case study. The policy problem is that under the current mutual aid program and compensationpolicy,seaurchinharvestersinAkkeshiremaintooeconomicallyvulnerable to the impacts of the red tide We explore three policy options including1modifyingthe mutual aid system to incorporate local adaptability, 2 subsidizing the establishment of community-based on-land hatcheries, and 3 subsidizing sea urchin farming Six distinct criteria are used to assess the trade-offs of these policies including 1 effectiveness in mitigatingtheincomelossofseaurchinharvestersagainstfutureredtideevents,2costto thegovernment,3recoveryprospects,4politicalfeasibility,5distributionalequity,and6 environmentalfootprint Weuseethnographicmethodstocarryouttheanalysis,combining data collected through field interviews,mediaandarchivaldata,andinformationprovided bytheHokkaidoResearchOrganization

Section 4 focuses on Japanese aquaculture, more specifically on oyster farming in the Hinase region. Informed by a survey conducted on Hinase oysterfarmersregardingtheir awareness of ocean acidification, we focus on two policy goals: to promote ocean acidification awareness and to foster sustainable aquaculture practices among Hinase oyster farmers In terms of promoting ocean acidification awareness, we analyze the following policy options: 1 encouraging ocean monitoring and data sharing through community grants, 2 the production and dissemination of informational resources on ocean acidification and shellfish health, and 3 leveraging research grants for eelgrass restoration and as an ocean acidification management tool. In terms of promoting sustainableaquaculture,wereviewthefollowingpolicyoptions:1subsidiestoestablishan on-land hatchery, 2 species diversification grants, 3 revision of regulations on site-specific buffering, 4 relocation subsidies, and 5 strengthening the cross-sector networking function of local oyster coops Given the early state of ocean acidification recognition, data on the effectiveness of ocean acidification policies is insufficient to conduct a full policy analysis. Instead, we provide an overview of policyactionstakento mitigateoceanacidificationimpactsthathavebeenadoptedinothercountrycontexts.We review the achievements and challenges of these policies as well as the likelihood of transferabilitytoJapan

Fisheries management has often resultedincreatingandsustainingunintendedinequities among various groupswithinfisheriesthatcanbedefinedacrossdimensionsofraceand ethnicity, gender, place of residence, operational size, etc Despite presenting unprecedented challenges, climate change opens a window of opportunity to push for change in combating the inequities that have historically been perpetuated in fisheries.

Especially,givenevidencethathistoricallymarginalizedgroupsinfisherieswillbethemost severely impacted by climate change impacts that are imposed upon them rather than caused by their actions an environmental justice perspective is essential to designing climateadaptationstrategiesJohnson&Welch,2009

Through this report, we call on the need to endorseanequityandjusticeperspectiveas governments consider policies for climate adaptation In such a direction, each policy analysis in the report adopts criteria to assess variousdimensionsofequity Inthepolicy analysis for offshore fisheries, we consider distributive equity between the fishers that decide to remain versus exit the saury fishery, as well as between fishers from large, medium, and small-sized fleets. We also consider procedural equity among the saury fishersintermsofhowtheproposedpoliciesaffectfishersʼautonomyindecidingtoremain versus exit the fishery Inthepolicyanalysisforcoastalfisheries,weconsiderdistributive equity among different groups of fishers, focusing on gender and nationality given that these groups constitute some of the most marginalized groups in Japanese coastal fisheries. As such, equity considerations in policy analysis can take different forms and focusondifferentgroupsofindividualswithinfisheries.Wedemonstratehowequityvalues canguidepolicydecisionsbyevaluatingtheirinteractionwithotherkeypublicvalues,such as economic viability, efficiency, and effectiveness criteria to which policymakers must remain responsive We hope this report illustrates how policymakers can actively center equityintheirconsiderationsforclimateadaptationpolicieswithinfisheries

2. PolicyAnalysisforOffshoreFisheries:Considering RationalizationStrategies

2.1.Introduction

TheadverseimpactsofclimatechangeonJapanesefisherieshavebeenalarmingly apparentsince2010inallsectors,fromcoastalfisheriesandaquaculturestooffshore fisheries.Theseimpacts,suchascatchdeclines,distributionchanges,andmass mortalities,occuratanunprecedentedlevelbeyondthehistoricalbaseline,necessitating immediatepost-incidentfinancialrelieftoaddresstheunanticipatedeconomicdamage Whileeffectiveintheshortterm,thecurrentfisheriesinsuranceschemeinJapanisnot designedtosubsidizeacontinuingorpersistentrevenueloss,highlightingtheurgentneed foradditionalpolicies.Althoughresearchtoelucidatethemechanismofchangesand impactsisessentialtoexplorefundamentalsolutions,itcantakesubstantialtimeand researchtoelucidatethemechanismsofclimatechangeimpactsonfisheries.Also,itcan beuncertainwhetherimplementablesolutionsareidentifiedevenifthemechanismsare uncovered Inthisregard,fisheriessectorsmustbuildresilienceagainstadverseimpactsto mitigateunavoidabledamage

TheJapanesegovernmenthasalreadylauncheddiscussionplatformssuchasthe FisheriesAgencyʼsStudyGroupontheadaptationmeasuresforfisheriesandMinistryof EnvironmentʼsRegionalCouncilsforadaptation,contributingtonarrowingdownmeasures tobuildresilience.ThekeymessageoftheStudyGroupʼsrecommendationsis diversificationFisheriesAgencyofJapan,2023 Thisstrategycanbeimplementedfor coastalfisheriesbecauseofitsflexiblemanagementandoperationaswellastheabilityto developconcertedactionsamongcoastalfishersthroughFCAs However,itisquestionable ifdiversificationcanbefeasibleforoffshorefisheries,especiallyonesrelyingonsingle speciessuchassauryfisheries.Theongoing“fisheriespolicyreformˮunderscoresoutput controlbasedonMaximumSustainableYieldtorecoverdeclinedstocksandachieve sustainableuseGovernmentofJapan,2022.Indoingso,theStudyGrouprecommends improvingstockassessmentanddatacollectionGovernmentofJapan,2022 Although thispolicyisundoubtedlyimportantasafisheriesmanagementprinciple,policymakers shouldalsopreparefortheworstsituationwhereadecliningfishstockisunlikelytorecover soonunderclimatechangedespiteintroducingrobustcatchlimits.Somestockstargeted byoffshorefisheries,suchassauryandflyingsquid,arelikelytobeinsuchasituation now,andbusinessesinvolvedinthefisheriesarejeopardizedduetotheirheavyrelianceon sauryandflyingsquid

Thisstudyprovidesapolicyapproachtoaddressthisproblem,usingdatasetsoftheNorth Pacificsauryfishery.Theanalysispointstotheneedtorationalizethefishery,whichmeans reducingfishingcapacitytoadjusttoalowstockleveldrivenbyclimatechange.

2.2.BackgroundandPolicyProblem

ThelandingsofPacificsauryCololabissaira)inJapanwerestableformorethanthree decades1980 2014 However,thelasteightyearssawarapidanddramaticdeclineinthe catch,regardlessofthecontinuingmanagementJapanSauryStick-heldDip-netFishery CooperativeAssociation,nd) Since2019,thelandingshavebeenathistoricallylowlevels, lessthan20percentofthecatchin2014 ThenationalTACofsaurywashalvedfrom 264,000tonsinthelate2010sto118,131tonsin2023,buttheactuallandingin2023was 24,433tons,wellbelowtheTACFisheriesAgencyofJapan,n.d.a).Pacificsauryhasbeen internationallymanagedsince2015byaregionalfisheriesmanagementorganization,the NorthPacificFisheriesCommissionNPFC,toensureitssustainableusebasedon science TheresultofthestockassessmentconductedbytheNPFCrevealedthat overfishinghappened,andthesaurystockwasoverfishedduringthedecade2010 2019 NPFC,2023whencatchesontheHighSeasincreasedandJapan'ssharedecreased fromabout50%to20%Nakayamaetal.,2024.

Althoughoverexploitationisoneofthecausesofcatchdecrease,environmentalfactors canbeattributedascausal.Japanhassaury'sprimaryspawninggroundoffitscoast,and Japanesefisherstakeadvantageofthespawningmigration Recently,however,less migrationhasbeenobserved,withthemainfishinggroundforJapanesefishersshifting eastwardfromJapan'sEEZtotheHighSeas JapanFisheriesResearchandEducation Agency2023suggeststhefollowinghypothesis:Since2010,anomalouslywarmwater associatedwithweakenedOyashioflowhaspersistedoffthecoastofJapan,whichmay haveblockedsauryfrommigratingtoitsprimaryspawningarea.Themigrationroutehas shiftedeastwardtotheoffshorearea,andaccordingly,Japan'shistoricalfishinggrounds havecontracted Atthesametime,thechangeinKuroshiocurrentmayhavecontributedto transportinglarvalfishtofartheroffshoreareaswithlessfoodavailability,andstock biomassmayhaveconsequentlydecreased,drivenbypoorergrowthandsurvival

Thischangehascausedadverseeffectsonsauryfishers,suchaslesssuccessfulsearch forfish,fewerfishingopportunities,andincreasedfuelconsumption,asidefromthe decreaseinstockabundance.Thefisheryhasbecomelessviableduetorevenue decreasesandcostincreases.Itissafetosaythesituationencompassingsauryfishershas beenstuckinanadversepatternformultipleyearsandtheprognosisisnotpositiveinthe

foreseeablefuture.Forthefollowingpolicyanalysis,thisreportdefinesthepolicyproblem as“thereistoolittleprofitfromthefisheriestosustainthelivelihoodsofallthecurrent sauryfishers.ˮ

2.3.PolicyOptions

First,currentrevenue,cost,andnetprofitofthesauryfisheryareestimatedforthree categoriesbasedonfishingvesselsize:small38vessels)-lessthan20grosstonnage GT,medium25vessels)-20GTormoreandlessthan100GT,andlarge48vessels)100GTormore Theaggregaterevenueforeachsizeclassiscalculatedbyallocatingtotal revenueinproportionto“catchpotential,ˮwhichisafunctionofindividualcatchquota possessedbyeachvessel.Costsareestimatedbasedondatasetsquotedfromdocuments of“fisheriesstructuralreformingprojectsˮregardingthesauryfishery,whichincludecost structuredataforfishingvesselsinvolved.Pleaseseefullreportfordetailsofprofit estimationanddatasets(catchandrevenue:JapanSauryStick-heldDip-netFishery CooperativeAssociation,nd;vesselnumbersandcatchquota:FisheriesAgencyofJapan, ndb;salary:MinistryofLand,Infrastructure,Transportandtourism,2023;othercosts: JapanSauryStick-heldDip-netFisheryCooperativeAssociation,2018.

Next,amodelisdevelopedtosimulatethefisherydynamicsandprojectfuturescenarios from2024to2030underdifferentpolicyoptions.Specifically,thismodelcanproject aggregatenetprofitandthenumberofvesselsforeachsizeclassgivenseveral assumptions:1thelandingsandpricewillbeconstantuntil2030,2thecurrentlow-level abundanceandeastwardshiftofmigrationroutearelikelytocontinue,3themarket demandforsauryisunlikelytochangesignificantly,5allcost-relatedparameterswillbe constantforsimplification,6vesselswillexitattheendofayearifthenetprofitintheir respectivesizeclassisnegative,7thecatchpotentialdeterminestheexitsequence,with thevesselwiththelowestcatchpotentialexitingfirst,and8theremainingvesselswill increasetheirharvestassomevesselsexit.Inprinciple,thismodelassumesthatthe availablesauryis“re-allocatedˮtotheremainingfisherseachyear,withthevariablesofthis modelbeingthenumberofvesselsforeachsizeclass Pleaseseethefullreportfordetails ofthemodel

Fourpolicyoptionsareproposed:1managementchangeIndividualTransferableQuota: ITQAndersonetal.,2019;Fina,2005;NPFMC,2017;Edward&Pinkerton,2019,2 partialpermitterminationSquires,2010;Demura,2006;Tanaka,2017;FisheriesAgencyof Japan,n.d.c),3incomesupportCisneros-Montemayoretal.,2016;FisheriesAgencyof Japan,ndd),and4diversificationPinskyandMantua,2014;Stenecketal,2011;

Szuwalskietal.,2023forconsideration,referringtocasestudiesregardingfishery rationalization.Option1changesthemanagementsystemsothatinefficientfisherswill selltheirquotatomoreprofitablefisherswillingtopaymoreforthequotathanthe inefficientfisherswouldearnfromthefishery InOption2,thegovernmentterminatesthe permitsofsomevesselsinexchangeforprovidingone-shotrelieftothevesselowners Thisoptionassumesthatthetotalamountofrelief3,885,670thousandyenKJPYfor52 exitingvesselswillbesharedwiththegovernment1,726,964KJPYandremainingfishers 2,158,706KJPY.Option3curtailsfishingeffortsbyshorteningthefishingperiod(from6 monthsto5months)inexchangeforgivingoutincomesupporttothevesselownersfrom 2024to2028,expectingcostreductioncombinedwithincomesupporttomakethenet profitspositive Theamountofincomesupportpervesselisequivalenttotwo-thirdsof monthlyrunningcosts(small:3,988KJPY,medium:5,424KJPY,andlarge:13,183KJPY Thetotalincomesupportforfiveyearswillbe4,082,308KJPY Option4aimstoincrease revenuebyissuingnewpermitsforcatchingalternativespeciesinordertomakeupforthe revenuelossofthesauryfishery,withtargetedalternativespeciesbeingJapanesesardine Sardinopsmelanostictus).Thisoptionassumesthatallsmallandmedium-sizedvessels startcatchingsardines,whilelarge-sizedvesselsarenotallowedtodiversifytoavoid conflictsbetweenotherresourceusersandoverfishing Anotherimportantassumptionis thatannualsardineharvestandpriceare17,109tonand1,183JPY/kg,respectively,andwill beconstantuntil2030 ProjectedscenariosundereachoptionareshowninFigure1

Figure1.Projectedscenariosundereachoption.Leftisatimeseriesofnetprofit.Rightisa timeseriesofvesselsizecomposition

2.4.CriteriaandAnalysis

Analysisofeachoptionemployingeightcriteriaisperformed:1profitgain,2impactson thelocalcommunity,3costtogovernment,4distributiveequity,5proceduralequity, 6politicalfeasibility,7uncertainty,and8duration.Equitycriteriaareincludedbecause, unlikeconventionaloverfishingissues,thecurrenteconomiccrisisofthisfisheryisnot solelyresponsibleforsauryfishers,giventhatclimatechangeisasignificantdriver

Criterion1considershowmuchprofitimplementingtheproposedpolicieswillgainby introducingcumulativenetprofitinKJPY,definedasthesumoftotalnetprofitfromthe sauryfisheryfrom2024to2030Figure2 Asidefromthestatusquo,onlytheincome supportoptionexpectsanegativecumulativenetprofit,suggestingthatsubsidiescan alleviatedeficitsbutbeunabletogainsufficientprofits.Ontheotherhand,thepermanent quotaoptionexpectsthelargestprofitgainbecauseofconsolidation.

Figure2 TimeseriesoftotalnetprofitKJPYforeachpolicyoption SQStatusquo,1 MC Management change Policy 1, 2 PT Partial permit termination Policy 2, 3 IS Income support Policy 3, and 4 D Diversification Policy 4. Cumulative net profitisthesumof totalnetprofitfrom2024to2030.

Criterion 2 considers the estimated number of exiting vessels and crew members who wereemployedthereon,andintroducesascale(themostnegative,negative,andtheleast negative) asametricofimpactsonthelocalcommunity Themanagementchangeoption will cause the most negative impacts on communities due to it having the highest unemploymentleveldrivenbyconsolidation Incontrast,thediversificationoptionwillhave

the least negative impacts, keeping thelargestnumberofcrewsinthefisheryamongthe proposedscenarios.

Criterion3measuresthetotalcostofimplementingeachpolicytothecentralgovernment of Japan in KJPY. The management change and diversification options do not require additionalgovernmentalbudgetfunding,whilethepartialpermitterminationoptionwillcost an estimated 1,726,964 KJPY for relief to exiting fishers, and the income support option necessitatesbudgetfundingforincomesupport,costing4,082,308KJPY

Criterion4gaugestheextenttowhichtheproposedpoliciesequitablydistributebenefits andcostsamongthesauryfishersintermsofAtheremainingfishersversustheexiting fishersandBamongthethreesizeclassesbyintroducingascale(high,medium,and low)asametricofdistributiveequity.AsfordiscussionA,theexitingfishersinthestatus quoscenariowillsufferfromdeficitswithoutsupport,whereastheremainingfisherscan eventuallyrecoverprofits Incontrast,thepartialpermitterminationisahighlyequitable optionbecausetheexitingfisherscanreceivecompensationfromthegovernmentandthe remainingfishers Thedistributiveequityofthediversificationoptionisalsohighbecause theleastfisherswillexitunderthescenario.AsfordiscussionB,Figure3revealsthatthe distributiveequityofthemanagementchangeoptionislowbecausethisconsolidation scenariowillendupwiththewidestdisparityinfavorofthelargeclass.Incontrast,the diversificationoptionishighlyequitablebecausethispolicywillenablesmalland medium-sizedvesselstoincreaserevenuebycatchingsardines,keepingasubstantial numberofvesselsinthefishery

Figure 3. Cumulative net profit KJPY breaking down into size classes for each policy option. S small, M medium, and L large size class. SQ Statusquo,1 MCManagement change Policy 1, 2 PT Partial permit terminationPolicy2,3 ISIncomesupportPolicy 3,and4 DDiversificationPolicy4

Criterion 5 measures the extent to which the proposed policies give the saury fishers room for proactive decision-making on whether to exit or remain in the fishery by introducingascale(high,medium,andlow)asametricofproceduralequity Intheincome support scenario, fishers with deficits will have no choice but to exit despite income support. On the other hand, the management change policy enables fishers to choose between selling their quotatoexitorcontinuingthefishery.Thepermitterminationoption willalsoallowfisherstodecidewhethertoremainorexit

Criterion6measurestheextenttowhichtheproposedpoliciesareacceptedbythesaury fishersanddecision-makers(politiciansandadministrativeagency),byintroducingascale (high,medium,andlow)asafeasibilitymetric Themanagementchangeoptioncanbethe leastfeasiblebecauseJapanhasneverimplementedthistypeofITQmanagement Fishers may express concerns about consolidation driven by thispolicy,makingdecision-makers hesitant tocarryoutthisoption.Incontrast,diversificationwillbethemostfeasibleoption becausetheStudyGrouphasalreadysuggestedthisoption.

Criterion 7 measureshowmuchuncertaintyisexpectedwherethepolicybenefitsreach the sauryfishersbyintroducingascale(high,medium,andlow)asanuncertaintymetric. The permit termination and income support options are less uncertain because the government can control the implementation The expected outcome of thediversification optionishighlyuncertainbecauseoftheuncertaintyofthesardinestock

Criterion8measurestheestimateddurationuntilthenetprofitfromthefisherybecomes positive, attributed to the policy option The total profit summing up all size classes will become positive the first in the permit termination option (in 2025, followed by the management change anddiversification(in2026,andtheincomesupportandthestatus quo(in2028.

2.5.Trade-Offs

Thepolicyanalysisrevealstrade-offsamongpolicyoptionsTable1.TheITQoption projectsthehighestprofitgainbutthemostnegativeimpactsonthelocalcommunityand withthewidestdisparityamongvesselsizeclassesduetoconsolidation Thepermit terminationoptionresultsinhighunemployment,buttheeconomicburdenofexitingfishers issharedwiththegovernmentandtheremainingfishers Also,theprofitabilityofthe fisherywillrecoverintheshortesttimewithlessuncertainty,butasubstantialamountof thegovernmentbudgetinvestmentisrequired.Theincomesupportoptionrequiresthe largestgovernmentalexpendituretoalleviatefishersʼdeficits,butitwillendupwiththe lowestprofitgainandahighlevelofunemployment Thediversificationoptionexpectsno additionalgovernmentalbudgetandhastheleastnegativeimpactsonlocalcommunities becauseofthefewestexistingfishers Evensmaller-scalevesselscanremaininthefishery thankstodiversification,allowingforsupplementalrevenuesfromalternativefish Japanesesardine).Onecaveatofthisoptionistheuncertaintyofsardinestockstatus.

Thepolicyanalysisresultssuggestthediversificationorpermitterminationoptions,while theauthorhopesthatstakeholdersswiftlystartcommunicationusingthispolicyanalysisby addingormodifyingpolicyoptionsandcriteria,ifnecessary,discussingkeytrade-offs amongpolicyoptions,andimplementingthebestoptionequitably

Table1Policymatrixsummarizingpolicyanalysis.

3.PolicyAnalysisforCoastalFisheriesagainstRedTide: ComplementingtheMutualAidSystemforAkkeshiSeaUrchin Harvesters

3.1.Introduction

BetweenSeptembertoNovember2021,thePacificcoastalareaofHokkaido,Japan experiencedaredtideevent Referredtoas“Akashioˮ,theredtidewascausedbyharmful algae,Kareniaselliformis.Massivedie-offsofseveralspeciessuchasseaurchin,whelk, seacucumber,andoctopi,occurredduringthesameperiod.Withdamagesestimatedtobe upto9billionyen,thiswastheworstfisheriesdisasterinJapanintermsofdamagecaused byaharmfulalgalbloom Inthissection,weanalyzepolicyoptionsthatmitigatetheimpact offutureredtideeventsinJapanesecoastalfisheries Wefocusouranalysisoncoastal seaurchinharvestersinAkkeshi,Hokkaido Thethreepolicyoptionsweanalyzeinclude1 modifyingthemutualaidsystemtoincorporatelocalgovernance,2subsidizingthe establishmentofcommunity-basedon-landhatcheries,and3subsidizingseaurchin farming.Thecriteriaweusetoanalyzethesepoliciesare1effectivenessinmitigatingthe incomelossofseaurchinfishersagainstfutureredtideevents,2cost,3recovery prospects,4politicalfeasibility,5distributionalequity,and6environmentalfootprint We useethnographicmethods,combiningdatacollectedthroughfieldinterviews,mediaand archivaldata,andinformationprovidedbytheHokkaidoResearchOrganization Thereport providesananalysisofthetrade-offsofeachpolicyoptionagainstthecriteriaand summarizesimplicationsformitigatingtheimpactsofredtideeventsinJapanesecoastal fisheries.

3.2.BackgroundandPolicyProblem

3.2.1RedTideHarmfulAlgalBloom)

TheJapanesecallHarmfulAlgalBloom“Akashioˮastheseawatercolorchangesinred whenoccurring Redtideisaphenomenoncausedbyanabnormalincreaseinasingle phytoplankton,whichgivesthesurfaceofseawateradiscoloredappearance When phytoplanktonoccurinlargenumbers,theyhaveasignificantimpactonthesurvivalof otheraquaticorganisms.Itisbelievedthattheplanktonclogsthegillsofthefishand suffocatesthem,andtheneurotoxinsproducedbytheplanktonkillthemarinecreatures. WhiletoxicityhasbeenconfirmedforKareniamikimotoiKmthereafter),whichcausesred tidesinwesternJapan,andKareniabrevisKb,thereafter),thecauseofthisredtide,

KareniaselliformisKs,thereafter)isunderinvestigationand,sofar,notoxicityhasbeen reported.

ResearchersrefertoclimatechangeasoneofthereasonsbehindthesuddensurgeinKs onthePacificcoastofHokkaido.Sincethestrongwarmcurrentsdonotreachofftheeast coastofHokkaido,seawaterbecomesstagnantYamaguchi,2022 Becauseofthis,red tidesaremorelikelytooccuralongtheeastcoastofHokkaidoinearlyautumn Large-scale redtideoutbreakscausedbydinoflagellateswererecordedofftheeastcoastofHokkaido in1972 74and1983 86Shimada,2021 Acontinuousstudyoftheplanktoncausingred tidesintheTokachicoastalregionbeganin1985.However,unliketheredtidesthatoccur intheinnerbaysofJapan'smainislands,whichgenerallycausealotofdamageto fisheries,theredtidesalongtheTokachicoasthavehistoricallyoccurredinopenestuarine coastalareasShimada,2021

Inthe2000s,thenumberofreportedredtideoutbreaksincreasedinotherareasof Hokkaido RedtidescausedbyKmwereobservedinHakodateBayin2015and2021, resultinginthedeathoffallsalmonlandedfrommid-OctobertoearlyNovember2021 Abalonefarmingalsosufferedfromthe2021KmoutbreakinHakodatearea.Asfaras officialandavailablerecordsgo,the2015redtideoutbreakwasthefirstrecordedfishand shellfishdie-offontheHokkaidocoastShimada,2021.Kmisfoundinwarmerwatersand reportedasacauseofredtidesintheKyushuregionandtheSetoInlandSea Kmis thoughttohavepropagatednorthwardonthewarmcurrentsandproliferatedinHakodate Bay,resultingintheredtide GlobalwarmingisbelievedtobebehindtheHakodateredtide outbreakanddie-offproblemin2015,andthe2021outbreakofredtideoffthecoastof EastHokkaidomaybeoneoftheeffectsofclimatechangeonthecoastalecosystem Yamaguchi,2022.

Ksmayhavenourishedthemselvesonthenutrient-richseafloorandthenproliferatedatthe surface,wheretherearenolongeranyrivals.TyphoonsandsuchdonotcometoHokkaido veryoftenin2021,andcomparedtopreviousyears,itbecameaplacewherewatertended toaccumulateandstayput Thewarmwaterneartheseasurfacebecamenutrient-poor, killingotherplankton However,thenewlypropagatedKsareequippedwithahair-like structurecalledaflagellum,whichallowsthemtoswimfreelyinthewater.Amongthem,Ks speciescanmovewithflagella.Itcanreplenishnutrientsatthebottomoftheseawhere nutrientsarehigh,andthenreturntotheseasurfacetoperformphotosynthesis.Pacific CoastalHokkaidobecametheplacewhereKscouldincreasewhileotherspeciescouldnot Yamaguchi,2022

ThenegativeimpactsofRedTidesarenotlimitedtocommercialfisheries.HABsproduce toxinsthatmayriskhumanhealth.Inadditiontopublichealth,HABscancausesignificant socioeconomicdamagetorecreationandtourism,aquaculture,andthefoodmarket WHOI,2022 Theycanalsoaffectlocallivelihoods,includingemploymentopportunities, foodsovereignty,andcommunity-basedgifteconomies

Amongmanyfisheryspecies,short-spinedseaurchin(ezobafunʼuni,Stringlylocentroutus intermedius)wasoneofthemostaffectedfisheriestargetedspeciesinAkkeshi,Eastern Hokkaido SeaurchinharvestersinAkkeshiusethedivingmethodandtheyengageinthe harvestingactivityonlyfourmonthsinayear.Theyself-regulatetheharvestby implementingano-harvestperiodandalsospendonemonthtransplantingandtransferring juvenileandsmallseaurchinstothecoastalenvironment.

AftertheredtideoutbreakwasconfirmedinSeptember2021,seaurchinharvesters voluntarilystoppedharvestingseaurchinsduetothemassdie-offofseaurchinsatsea andtheriskofsevereresourcedepletion In2022,theyharvestedseaurchinsinOctober andNovemberfortestingpurposesonly,andwereabletoharvestinDecember The annualvalueoftheirseaurchinsin2020was216,834,000yen;thevaluedecreasedto 81,581,000yen 62.38%comparedto2020and69,164,000yen 68.1%in2021and 2022,respectively.Althoughtheseaurchinfisheryisrelativelymoreprofitablethanmost coastalfisheries,seaurchinharvestershavebeenforcedtoworkinotherfisheriesor non-fisheryjobsduringthemonthinwhichtheywouldhavebeenharvesting,butchose nottodosoforconservationreasons

Figure 4 Monthly Production and Annual Price of Short-spine Sea Urchins in Akkeshi 2016 2022

3.2.2TheJapaneseMutualAidSystem

TheFisheriesMutualAidProgramhasmorethan60yearsofhistoryandachievementsin Japan TheFisheriesMutualAidProgramaimstoensurethereproductionoffisheriesand contributetothestabilityoffisheriesmanagementbycompensatinglossesthatsmalland medium-sizedfishermenmaysufferduetoabnormaleventsorunforeseenaccidents,such aslosseswhenthecatchisreducedduetopoorcatch.Althoughpublicfundsareused, thisisdifferentfromsubsidiesorgrants,wherethegovernmentprovidesdirect compensationfordamagessufferedbyfishers.Itisamutualaidprogrambasedonthe spiritofmutualreliefforsmallandmediumfishers,usingtheinsurancemechanism.

TheFisheriesMutualAidProgramfunctionsasthecoreoffourtypesofinsurance:Fishing MutualAid,AquacultureMutualAid,SelectedAquacultureMutualAid,andFishingFacilities MutualAid MutualAidforAquacultureprovidescompensationfordamagetoaquaculture productioncausedbynaturaldisasters,includingredtide,andisapropertydamage insuranceprogramsimilartogeneralpropertyandfireinsurance.TheMutualAidfor FishingFacilitiesisalsoapropertyinsuranceschemethatcoversfishinggearand

aquaculturefacilities.Ontheotherhand,unlikenon-lifeinsurance,MutualAidforFishing CatchandMutualAidforSpecificAquacultureareyieldinsuranceschemesthat compensateforthelossofproductionvalueduetopoorcatch,lowpricesandchangesin oceanicconditionscausedbypoorquality

323ThePolicyProblem

Thepolicyproblemisthatunderthecurrentmutualaidprogramandcompensationpolicy, seaurchinharvestersinAkkeshiremaintooeconomicallyvulnerabletotheeffectsofred tide Severalfactorscontributetothisproblem Thefirstisthatthemutualaidprogramis notavailabletofisherswhoengageinsemi-domesticatedfisheries,suchasurchindiving, whichtransplantsyoungurchinsintocoastalenvironments.Seaurchindivinggroups purchaseandreleasejuvenileseaurchins,buttheydonotfeedthem;thereleasedsea urchinsliveandgrowinthenaturalcoastalenvironment,althoughdiverstransplantsea urchinsfromonelocationtoanothertoprovideabetternutritionalenvironmentforthesea urchins Itdiffersfromaquacultureinthatitspractice,knownassemi-domesticationor semi-cultivation,doesnotprovideharvesterswiththeabilitytocontrolspeciestargetedfor fishingincoastalwaters.Andbecauseitisnotaquaculturethatoffersrelativecontrollability andaccountabilityofthefisheryspeciesthatthefisherscultivate,theMutualAidfor Aquacultureisnotapplicable.

Inaddition,theMutualAidProgramforFishingCatchprovidescompensationforthevalue lostduetolowyields Underthecurrentsystem,thisprogramdoesnotcoverlosses associatedwiththepurchaseandlossofseaurchinseedlings Duetotheirsustainable practiceofharvestingseaurchinsthroughjuvenilerelease,transplantationandharvesting, theirfisheryisnotcategorizedaseitherfishingorfarming,resultingininflexibilityin providingtailoredsupporttosmall-scaleseaurchindivingandindustryinAkkeshithrough theMutualAidprograms.

Inaddition,thecurrentsystemofmutualaiddisregardstheauthorityoflocalfishing cooperatives,whicharethelocalmanagementunitofthesefisheries.Thismakesitdifficult forfishingcooperativestomakeadaptive,community-baseddecisionsthattakeadvantage oftheirlocalknowledgeofthefishery Theseaurchindivinggroupestablishedtheir currentfishingpracticesfrompastexperiencesofoverfishing Theyorganizethereduction ofoperatingboatsto3byall31permitholdersworkingtogether,choosingintragroup cooperationoverintragroupcompetition.Suchlocalinstitutionalarrangementfor sustainableharvestingpracticeofinfinitecoastalfisheryresourcesmakesitdifficultfor

themtobeenrolledinthemutualaidprograms,leavingthemfinanciallyinsecureagainst unexpectedenvironmentalandeconomicevents.

Finally,thecurrentcompensationpolicyfocusesonthepurchaseofseedlings,whichtake severalyearstobecomeprofitable.WhileAkkeshiseaurchinharvestersappreciatethis compensationsystemasitincreasestherecruitmentofseaurchinsintheircoastalareas, theyremaineconomicallychallengedandexposedtothethreatoffutureredtideevents duetotheuncontrollabilityoftheirsemi-domesticatedurchins Inaddition,thelocal capacityforseedlingproductionislimitedbythecurrentfacilitiesanddistributionsystem Consideringthesefactorscontributingtotheproblem,weanalyzethreepolicyoptionsthat theJapanesegovernmentcanconsidertoreducethevulnerabilityofAkkeshiseaurchin harvesterstofutureredtideevents.

3.3.PolicyOptions

PolicyOption1.Modifyingthemutualaidprogramtoincorporatelocaladaptability

Thisoptioninvolvesintroducinglocaladaptiveandgovernanceprocessesintotheexisting fisherymutualassistanceprogram Thegoalofthisoptionistomaximizetheeffectiveness ofthetop-downprogrambyharnessingtheadaptivebenefitsofcommunity-based management Thecentralgovernmentwillestablishprocessestoidentifyandengage representativesfromseaurchinfishingcooperativesinAkkeshitoreevaluatethetermsof themutualaidprogram.Together,stakeholderswillengageinadeliberativeprocessto redefinethetermsoftheprogramforthesefisheries.Inclusivedecision-makingprocesses throughcommunity-baseddeliberationwillbeestablishedsothatlocalfishingcooperatives canparticipateindecisionsregardingdetailssuchaswhenthemutualaidprogramwillbe offset,thescopeandextentofcoverage,expectationsregardingoperations,andsoon Theunderlyingassumptionisthatthisinclusiveprocesswillallowfishingcooperativesto modifythetermsofthemutualaidprograminawaythatmeetstheuniqueneedsoftheir particularfishery.

PolicyOption2.Subsidizingtheestablishmentofcommunity-basedon-landhatcheries

Underthisoption,thegovernmentwillsubsidizetheestablishmentofacommunity-based land-basedseaurchinhatcheryinAkkeshi.Thegoalofthisoptionistoensurethatsea urchinseedlingsareprotectedfromfutureredtideandotherextremeevents Currently,sea urchinfishersinAkkeshiraiseseedlingsinaland-basedhatcherythatisjointlyfundedby threecommunities Thishasproventobesomewhateffectiveinmitigatingtheimpactsof the2021redtideevent.Theunderlyingassumptionforthisoptionisthatestablishinganew

on-landhatcheryorexpandingtheexistingtri-municipalseedlingproductionfacilitywill reducerelianceonotherregionsandprovidegreaterproductionsecurityintheeventof futureredtideevents.

PolicyOption3.EducatingonandSubsidizingseaurchinfarming

Underthisoption,thegovernmentwillprovideinformationandsubsidiestopromotesea urchinfarmingintheAkkeshifishery Thegoalofthisoptionistoeducateseaurchin harvestersonthebenefitsoffarmingandsubsidizetheinitialstart-upcostssothat harvesterscanmakeaninformeddecisiontoincorporatefarmingintotheircurrent semi-domesticatedoperations Farminghasproventobelesssusceptibletoredtide impactsthanharvestingfromthewild.However,severalfactorsarecausingharvestersto bereluctanttoengageinseaurchinfarming.Theunderlyingassumptionforthisoptionis thatknowledgeandinformationaboutthebenefitsofaquaculture,aswellasassistance withstart-upcosts,areneededtoincentivizethetransition Inaddition,theestablishment ofseaurchinfarmingcouldprovideanopportunityforAkkeshiseaurchinharvesterstobe enrolledintheMutualAidforAquacultureProgram

3.4.Criteria

We use six distinct criteria to assess the trade-offs of these policies: 1 effectiveness in mitigatingtheincomelossofseaurchinharvestersagainstfutureredtideevents,2costto thegovernment,3recoveryprospects,4politicalfeasibility,5distributionalequity,and6 environmentalfootprint.Eachcriterionisexplainedbelow.

Criteria1Effectiveness

The report focuses on the policy problem that under the currentmutualaidprogramand compensationpolicy,seaurchinharvestersremaintooeconomicallyvulnerabletoredtide impacts The effectiveness criterion assesses the extent to which implementing the proposed policies will address this problem Bardach & Patashnik, 2016 We define economic vulnerability in terms of income loss caused by red tide events The policy options presented in our analysis focus on stabilizing the income of sea urchin fishers. Using the 2021 Red Tide case as abaselinefortheeconomiclossesaredtideeventwill inflict on sea urchin harvesters in Akkeshi, we focus on how much the policy option mitigatesincomelossforthefishers

Criteria2Cost

This criterion measures the estimated total cost of implementing each policy to the Japanese government in Japanese Yen and is qualitatively assessed on a scale of high, medium,andlow.

Criteria3RecoveryProspects

This criterion assesses the likelihood of returning to normal operations in the following seasonandisqualitativelyassessedonascaleofhigh,medium,andlow

Criteria4PoliticalFeasibility

Various stakeholders have interests involved in the operation of sea urchin fisheries in Akkeshi We define this criterion as the extent to which this policy will be endorsed for implementation byvariousstakeholderswhoseinterestsareinterrelatedinthesefisheries Stakeholders include the government, fishing cooperatives, individual fishers, and industries. Challenges can arise in policy adoption and implementation if there is strong oppositionfromoneormorestakeholdergroups,leadingtoapolicythatisnotfeasible.We use a scale of high, medium, and low to assess options against the criteria of political feasibilityTable2

Table2PoliticalFeasibilityScale

PoliticalFeasibility

Thedegreeofapolicy'sendorsementbystakeholders

A policy is favorable to all or most stakeholder groups, leading to little or no oppositionandbroadsupportforpoliticalendorsement.

A policy is more or less favorable to certain stakeholdergroupsandisexpectedto cause some opposition in other stakeholder groups, but to an extent that such oppositioncanberesolvedforpoliticalendorsement.

Scale

Highly

Medium

A policy is favorable to certain stakeholder groups leading to some or strong opposition from other stakeholder groups, toanextentthatsuchoppositioncannot beresolvedforpoliticalendorsement. Low

Criteria5DistributiveEquity

According to Kim and de Buen Kalman 2025, “distributive equity gauges the extent to which a policy intentionally distributes its benefits, costs,rights,responsibilities,andrisks

within and among historically advantaged and disadvantaged groupsˮ(p.16).Thiscriterion acknowledges female and foreign workers in the fisheries industry as historically marginalized groups within fisheries and inJapaningeneral.Weconsiderhowthepolicy options can change the distribution of costs, risks andbenefitsforthesegroups Weuse the following distributive equity scale adapted from deBuenKalmanandBlume2021to assesspolicyoptionsagainstthiscriterionTable3

Table3DistributiveEquityScale

DistributiveEquity

Thedistributionofapolicy'scostsandbenefits

A policy maximizes benefits to female and foreign workers who are more vulnerable to red tide impacts while most costs are absorbed by the other fishermengroupsandthebroadersociety

A policy allocates significant benefits to female andforeignworkerswhoaremore vulnerable to red tide impacts while a significantportionofthecostsareabsorbed byotherfishermengroupsandthebroadersociety

Policy option has a "do no harm" neutral effect in terms of allocating costs and benefits between historically marginalized female and foreign workers affectedby redtideandotherfishermengroupsandthebroadersociety.

A policy allocates some benefits to female and foreign workers who are more vulnerable toredtideimpactswhilealsoallocatingasignificantportionofthecosts to them, but not to an extent that threatens equity gains from previous policy initiatives.

A policy spares societal costs by minimizing benefits and/or maximizing costs to female and foreign workers who are more vulnerable to red tide impacts, to an extentthaterodesequitygainsfrompreviouspolicyinitiatives.

Criteria6EnvironmentalFootprint

Scale

Highly equitable

Moderately equitable

Nodiscernable equityimpact

Moderately inequitable

Highly inequitable

Wealsoconsidertheneedtoassessthepotentialenvironmentalfootprintofimplementing each policy option We consider how the policy options could cause additional environmental pressures, including the spatial dimension(e.g.environmentalstressorson thelocalecosystem)tothetemporaldimension(e.g.increaseinenvironmentaluncertainty inthefuture),onascaleofhigh,medium,andlow).

3.5.Analysis

Table4summarizesouranalysisofthreepolicyoptions.

Table4PolicyAnalysisMatrix

Modifying themutual aidsystem

Subsidizing on-land hatcheries

Subsidizing farming

PolicyOption1

Our analysis suggests that the policy option will cost the Japanese governmenttheleast among the three options. If the Akkeshi sea urchin divinggroupisenrolledinthecurrent mutual aid program, it is estimated that they will receive approximately 206,581,000 yen, based on the three-year average of their annual production value from the previous five years, excluding the lowest and highest years Assuming a subsidy rateof65%fromthe national treasury, this policy option will cost approximately 134,277,650 yen per year for payment.Andsinceittakesthreeyearsforjuvenileseaurchinstogrowtomarketablesize, theestimatedtotalcostofimplementingPolicyOption1willbeapproximately402,833,000 yen,assumingthatpaymentundertheMutualAidProgramwillcontinueforthreeyears

Policyoption1alsohashighpoliticalfeasibilityastheAkkeshiseaurchinharvestinggroup has already been working in the cooperative system Inaddition,policyoption1willhave the least environmental footprint compared to the other two options, which may havean impactonlocalecosystems

PolicyOption2

Currently, the supply of sea urchin seedlings does notmeetthedemand,especiallyafter the red tide disaster in 2011. To solve this problem, it is necessary to increase the production capacity of sea urchin seedlings by expanding the existing tri-municipal sea urchinseedlingcenterorestablishinganewmunicipalproductioncenter.

Increasingproductionandintroducingjuvenileseaurchinsintothedivingareaswillprovide both physical and psychological support for Akkeshi sea urchin harvesters. The political feasibilityofthisoptionishigh,astheyarealreadypracticingthepurchaseandreleaseof sea urchin seedlings with the support of the subsidiary The increase in sea urchin production will also increase job security for those who do not have commercial fishing permits, such as women and foreign workers employed in local seafood processing companies,includingthosespecializinginseaurchinpackaging

PolicyOption3

Policy Option 3, whichsupportstheintroductionofseaurchinfarminginAkkeshi,hasthe mostpositiverecoveryprospectsofthethreeoptions.Becausecagedseaurchinscanbe moved and evacuated from red tide waters, sea urchin farmers can continue to produce sea urchins. Farming sea urchins will also allow them to be included in the Mutual Assistance Program for Aquaculture, just as neighboring fishing communities such as Hamanakadowiththeirseaurchinfarming

Option 3 also has the most positive prospects for distributive justice Sea urchin farming canbeconductedinornearfishingportsratherthanatsea Unlikediving,farming,which requires daily care of sea urchins such as feeding andrecordingtheirgrowth,willcreate additional employment opportunities for local women and foreign workers in the Akkeshi area.

3.6.Trade-offsandDiscussion

Everypolicyinterventioninvolvestrade-offs.Theweaknessofthesethreepolicyoptionsis theprospectsforrecovery Thisisduetothenatureoftheseaurchinfishery Seaurchins takeseveralyearstogrowtoamarketablesize,regardlessofproductionmethods Purchasingandreleasingmatureseaurchinsintocoastalwaterscouldbeaquicksolution tooffsetandmitigatetheeconomicandecologicaldamagecausedbyredtide However, thisisashort-termsolutionthatdoesnothaveapositiveimpactonlocalresilience.

Weneedtoconsideraneffectivepolicyinterventiontoincreaselocaladaptabilityand resiliencewhilesystemizingcompensationandmitigationforanunexpecteddisasterlike redtide.Thediversificationandstrengtheningofseaurchinpopulationrecruitmentatthe local/communitylevelisthebestapproachtoaddressthisneed,whilethemodificationof thecurrentMutualAidProgrampolicytomakeitmoreflexibleandadaptabletoadiversity ofcoastalfisheriesenhancesthesocio-economicsecurityofseaurchinharvestersand

othersrelatedtotheseaurchinindustry,suchasonshorewomenandforeignnationals workingintheseafoodprocessinganddistributionsectors.

OnespecificproposalwemakehereistorenovateandutilizethefacilitiesattheHokkaido NationalFisheriesResearchInstituteinAkkeshitoenhancelocaladaptabilityandresilience tofutureredtideevents HNFRI'sAkkeshiStationisnowclosed,butitsfacilitiesarealready equippedforhatcheryoperations Renovationanduseofthisfacilitycouldbeseriously consideredforimplementationofPolicyOptions2and3analyzedhere

4.PolicyAnalysisforAquacultureagainstOceanAcidification: RaisingAwarenessandPromotingSustainableAquacultureamong HinaseOysterFarmers

4.1.Introduction

OceanacidificationOAisaseriousthreattomarineshelledmollusks,includingoysters, scallops,clams,andsoforthbecausetheincreaseinseawateracidity(measuredby decliningpHhindersthegrowthandcalcificationofmarineshelledmollusksandleadsto highmortalityatthelarvalstageKroekeretal.,2013,Waldbusseretal.,2013.Accordingto theearlyevidence,OAhasinflictedsignificantdamageontheaquacultureindustry.For example,becauseofsevereshellfishlarvaedie-offsduetooceanacidificationinthe PacificNorthwest,theUnitedStateshasexperiencedalossof$270millioninrevenueand 3200jobsperyearintheshellfishaquacultureindustryinWashingtonstatealone WashingtonStateBlueRibbonPanelonOceanAcidification,2012.

AsthethirdlargestglobaloysteraquacultureproducerBottaetal.,2020,Japaneseoyster productionintheyear2022was165,400metrictonnesMinistryofAgriculture,Forestand Fisheries,2023.Hinaseislocatedinoneofthetopfiveoysterproductionprefectures, Okayamaprefecture Currently,thereare94oysterfarmersinHinasewaters,generating8 millionannualrevenuesin2009 2019basedonunpublisheddatafromHinaseFishery Cooperative However,continuousin-situmonitoringandnumericalmodelingstudies projectthatundertheRCP85(business-as-usual)scenario,bytheendofthiscentury, therewillbetoolittleoysterproductionforsustainablefarmingasaresultoflowvaluesof pHandaragonitesaturationrateΩarag)inHinasewaters.Yet,Hinaseoysterfarmersremain toounderpreparedtoaddresstheimpactsofOA.Forexample,almosthalfofoysterfarmers statedthattheybarelyknowaboutOAinthequestionnairesurvey Inthisreport,wefocus onthepolicyproblemthatHinaseoysterfarmersremaintoounderprepared,bothinterms ofawarenessandsustainableaquaculturetoaddresstheimpactsofOA Therefore,we presentareviewofpolicyoptionsthattheJapanesegovernmentcanconsidertoaddress theproblem.

Inthisreport,wetakeatwo-prongedapproachtoaddresstheimpactsofOAonHinase oysterfarmsthroughapolicyreview.First,wereviewasetofpoliciesthatfocusonraising OAawarenessamongHinaseoysterfarmers Thesecondsetofpoliciesfocuseson promotingsustainablefarmingpracticesthatmitigateOAimpacts Theintendedaudience

ofthisreportarepolicymakersintheFisheriesAgencyofJapanundertheMinistryof Agriculture,ForestryandFisheriesofJapanwhomanagetheJapaneseaquaculture sectors.Foreachpolicygoal,wereviewasetofeffectivepolicyoptionsthathavebeen implementedinforeigncontextsandassesstheirtransferabilitytoHinase Whileevidence ontheperformanceofOApoliciesislimitedduetotheshorttimeframeoftheir implementation,asurveyofavailablepolicyoptionsthathavebeenimplementedwillbe informativetopolicymakersintheJapanesegovernmentatthenational,prefectural,and locallevelsastheyseektoraiseawarenessofOAandpromotesustainablefarming practicesintheaquaculturesector.

4.2.PolicyOptionsandApplications

4.2.1PolicyOptionstoRaiseOAAwareness

AdirectwaytoaddressthegoalofraisingOAawarenessamongoysterfarmersisto providethemwithknowledgeandinformation.Oursurveydatashowsthatoverhalfofthe interviewedoysterfarmershavenotheardaboutorbarelyknowaboutOA,suggestingthat theprovisionofinformationcouldserveasaneffectivetooltoraiseawareness Information isapolicytoolthatgovernmentofficialscanusetoachievedesiredpolicyoutcomesby influencingcitizenʼsattitudes,beliefs,andbehaviorsSalamon,2002.Theuseof informationasapolicytoolcaninvolvegeneratingnewinformationorusinginformation thatgovernmentsalreadypossessanddisseminatingittothosewhowantorneedthat informationSalamon,2002 Itcanalsoinvolveequippingcertainpopulationswiththe capacitytogenerateanddisseminateinformationonthegovernmentʼsbehalfSalamon, 2002 Inthepast,Hinaseoysterfarmershaveparticipatedincollectingsamplestomonitor oceanconditions Oysterfarmershaveexpressedinterestinreceivingupdatesregarding theoutcomesofmonitoringactivitiestheyhavebeeninvolvedin.Thissuggeststhereisa highlikelihoodthatknowledgesharingaboutOAwillbefavorablyacceptedbyHinase oysterfarmers.Thus,weanalyzethethreepoliciesbelowthattargetraisingOAawareness amongHinaseoysterfarmers

PolicyOption1 EncourageMonitoringandDataSharingThroughCommunityGrants

TheJapanesegovernmentwillpartnerwiththelocalgovernmentofHinasetoadvertisethe importanceofmonitoringtooysterfarmersandsubsidizecostsforequipmentpurchases suchaspHsensorstopromotemonitoringeffortsamongHinaseoysterfarmers Improving waterqualitymonitoring,includingcarbonatechemistrydata,directlyinformsoyster farmersoftheenvironmentallystressfulconditions.Thisallowsforadaptiveresponsesand leadstoagreaterunderstandingofhowwaterqualityaffectsshellfishhealthandmortality,

whichcanalsoencourageoysterfarmerstogetinvolvedwithmoreadvanceddata collectionbeyondpHlevels.

TheOregonOceanMonitoringGroup,formedin2016,iscomposedofoceanmonitoring expertsandstakeholdersconsistingofstateandfederalresourcemanagers,academics, industry,andNGOs Operatingwithavisionofanoceanchangemonitoringnetworkin Oregon,thegroupwassuccessfulinengaginglocalstakeholderstostrategizeonusing informationfromaseriesofstudiesandmonitoringprojectsastheyplanforresiliencein theiconicOregonestuary

TheJapanMinistryoftheLand,Infrastructure,andTransporthassubsidizedprefectures anddesignatedcitiestoinstallautomaticwaterqualitymonitoringsystems.Thus,the currentWaterQualityMonitoringSystemforPublicWaterscanbeusedtoconductOA monitoringandsharethedatawithaquaculturefarmers,requiringlittleadditional investment Challengeswillremaininelicitingbuy-inandeducatingoysterfarmersto partakeinthemonitoringefforts

PolicyOption2 ProductionandDisseminationofInformationalResourcesonOAand ShellfishHealth

TheJapanesegovernmentwillproduceanddisseminateinformationalresourcesonOA andshellfishhealthtoHinaseoysterfarmers.Taskswillincludecreatingoutreachmaterials highlightingOAscienceandimplicationsforoystersandhostingseminarstoidentifyOA drivers(heavyrainfall,freshwaterinflux,etc.)thatcanleadtodeformedlarvae,pooradult growth,andmortalitysothatoysterfarmerscanrecognizeandbemoreresponsiveto environmentalconditionsinearlystagesofOAincidents

TheNOAAOceanAcidificationProgramOAPprovidestheOceanAcidificationResources forCommunicators&Educatorswebinarseriestoreacheducators,stakeholders,andrights holdersacrossthecountryandprovidetoolsforthemtoengageinOAeducation The webinarseriesiswidelyusedasaneducationalresourceforOAeducationintheU.S.

Studygroupsandworkseminarshavebeenpreviouslyhostedbyfisheryextensionofficers forHinaseoysterfarmerstopromotelearningaboutenvironmentalissues.Theautomaticity ofthisoptionishighastheexistingchannelsforhostingstudygroupsandworkseminars canbeleveragedtodisseminateOA-relatedknowledge SpecificmaterialsaboutOAandits potentialimpactsonshellfishgrowthcanbeaddedtothesestudygroupsandwork seminarstoraiseOAawarenessamongoysterfarmersandbuildthecapacitytoidentify

earlysignalsreflectedfromlarvalstages.Fisheryextensionofficerscanactasstewardsfor oysterfarmerstoaccessthisinformation.

PolicyOption3ResearchGrantoneelgrassrestorationanditsuseasanOAmanagement tool

TheJapanesegovernmentwillprovideresearchgrantstoalocaluniversity/research institutiontoconductaresearchprojectonthebenefitsofco-culturingoysterswith eelgrass/marineplantsasapotentialstrategytomitigateOAimpactsandexpand sustainableoysterfarming Theresearchteamwillhostacommunity-engagedeventto shareresearchfindingswithHinaseoysterfarmers

AnexperimentalstudyconductedinOregonin2015aspartofaUSDAproject demonstratedthateelgrasscanmodifywaterchemistryandhavepositiveeffectsonthe growthofoysterspatsviaphotosynthesisandcarbondioxideuptake.Yet,uncertainty regardingtheeffectivenessofeelgrassinmitigatingOAeffectsremainshigh,especially regardingitslong-termimpacts

Scientificevidenceshowingthebenefitsofeelgrassrestorationonoysterproductiontothe Hinaseoysterfarmersremainsscarce Japaneseoysterfarmersexpressedconfusion abouteelgrassbenefitsandbelievedthateelgrassalreadygrowstoomuchandis becomingdriftweeds.ResearchintheJapanesecontextisrequiredtoestablishtheimpacts ofeelgrassrestorationonoysterproductionforHinaseoysterfarmers.Theresultsmustbe communicatedtoHinaseoysterframerstoinformthemoftherelationshipbetween eelgrassrestorationandoysterfarming,particularlyintermsofmitigatingOAimpacts

422PolicyOptionstoPromoteSustainableAquaculture

Effectiveandcost-efficientfarmmanagementmeasuresareindispensableforsustainable aquaculture OAadaptivestrategiesrelatedtofarmmanagementincludeaseriesof measurestoimproveoperationsefficiencyforbusinesssuccess,suchasintroducing spatial/temporalflexibilityinoperations,diversifyingculturedspecies,culturingmethods, andgeartypes,andexploringdiversemarketingchannelsWardetal.,2022;Greenetal., 2023.Inthissection,wereviewpoliciesimplementedtoservesuchpurposes.For communitiesimpactedbyenvironmentalchange,networkinghasbeenregardedasan adaptivestrategythatbuildsconnectionsandfacilitatesknowledgesharingacrossdifferent stakeholdergroups,includingscientists,policymakers,regulators,othergrowers,andlocal communitymembersBarnesetal,2016;Crossetal,2019;Keiletal,2021 Thus,wealso

reviewapolicyoptiononstrengtheningthecross-sectornetworkingfunctionoffishing coopstoenhancesustainableaquacultureinthecommunityofHinaseoysterfarmers.

PolicyOption1.SubsidiestoEstablishanOn-landHatchery

TheJapanesegovernmentwillprovideHinasesubsidiestoestablishandoperatean on-landoysterhatchery.On-landhatcheriescanensurethesupplyofoystersinmultiple lifecyclestagesandsizeclassesandpreventthemortalityofoystersinearlylifestages duetoOAandotherenvironmentalstressors Self-operatedhatcheriesalsoreducethe needtocollectseedlingsfromthenaturalenvironmentandprotectagainstthenegative impactsofregionalseedlingshortages

Alaskaʼsonlyshellfishhatchery,AlutiiqPrideShellfishHatcheryinSeward,hascontributed tomitigatingtheoysterspatshortageinAlaska.Ithasalsoservedasasuccessfulresearch facility,providinginvaluablesupporttofarmersandothercoastalresidents.Meanwhile, challengesduetolowmarinewatertemperatures,whichleadtohighenergycostsand higheroysterspatcostsremainoutstanding

SomeoysterfarmersinHinaseexpressedreluctancetopurchaseoysterseedlingsfrom overseasorotherprefecturesduetorisksofdiseaseorbacterialinfluence,different culturingmethods,anddifferenttastesofoysters Thoughoysterfarmerscanpurchase enoughseedlingsfromMiyagiandHiroshimaprefecturesatpresent,thereisahigh possibilitythatseedlingshortagesmayoccursoonowingtothehighdemandforoyster productionandacuteenvironmentalchangessuchasOA.Therefore,buildinganon-land hatcherycouldbeamoresuitablesolutionforHinaseoysterfarmerstoadapttothe OA-relatedenvironmentalchanges Concernsamongoysterfarmersregardingfinancial, labor,andsafetyissuesthatareassociatedwithanon-landhatcheryestablishmentmust beaddressed

PolicyOption2 SpeciesDiversificationGrants

TheJapanesegovernmentwillprovidedirectgrantstoHinaseoysterfarmerstodiversify theiraquaculturespecies.Culturingnumerous,additional,oralternativespeciescanhelp farmersenternewmarketsandhelpensurealternativeincomeisavailableifoyster productiondoespoorlyorisimpactedbyamortalityeventduetoOA.

ResearchersandshellfishfarmersinMainetestedtheviabilityofquahogandoyster polycultureasawaytodiversifyshellfishfarmsbyusingtheverticalspaceofthewater column Thisprojectwasreplicatedonthreeoysterfarmsinmid-coastMainewith

continuousmonitoringofquahogcohortsin2017 2018Kramer,2020. Overall,thisproject successfullyintegratedanewshellfishspeciesonthreeexistingoysterfarms,andseven additionalfarmsarenowgrowingquahogs.

AnexperimentalstudyinJapanYokohama,2015foundthatseacucumberA.japonicus) juvenilesculturedbelowthePacificoysterraftgrewwell,andexhibitedahighsurvivalrate 100%,indicatingthepossibilityofco-culturingoystersandseacucumbers Growingsea cucumbersareexpectedtoservearoleinbioremediationtobenefitoysterfarmingwhile alsogeneratingadditionalincome Large-scaletrialsmustbeconductedtoestablishthe Integratedmulti-trophicaquacultureIMTAsystemcomposedofPacificoystersandA. japonicus.

PolicyOption3.RevisionofRegulationsonSite-specificbuffering

TheJapanesegovernmentwillreviseJapanʼsWasteManagementandPublicCleansingAct whichcurrentlyregulatesspreadingoystershellsinthenaturalenvironmentasaformof illegaldumpinginJapan ThiswillallowHinaseoysterfarmerstouseoystershellsasa naturalbufferagainstOA Addingnaturalbufferstotheenvironmentcanenhance carbonatechemistry,forexample,crushedshellhashandsodaashClementsandChopin, 2017.

InWashington,shellfishcompaniesTaylorShellfish,MookSeaFarm,andothers)began adaptingtotheacidifiedincomingseawaterbyaddingsodaashtoraisethepHtoan optimallevelforoysterfarming.Theeffectsareimmediate,resultinginbetterlarval productionthanbefore However,astudyfoundthatsodaashpHbufferingduringearly developmentmaycompromiselater-lifestagesunderstressconditions

AstudyintheNigerDelta,Nigeriademonstratedthebufferingefficiencyofoystershellson acidicboreholewaterforfishfarming Laboratoryexperimentsandfieldstudiessupport thatbufferingsedimentswithcrushedshellscanincreasebivalverecruitmentbyraisingthe pH0.3andsaturationrateofsurfacesedimentGreenetal.,2009,2013.Oystershell buffersarecheapandsafeforaquaculture;noeffectsofshellhashinthewateronthe growthofoystersinlater-lifestageshavebeendetected.

SomeoysterfarmersinHinasehavesuggestedspreadingoystershellsinthewaterto defeatOAimpactsinthequestionnairesurveyPangetal,unpublished),implyingoyster farmerswouldbeacceptingofthisoption,giventhechangeinregulations

PolicyOption4.RelocationSubsidies

TheJapanesegovernmentwillsubsidizeoysterfarmerswhoarewillingtorelocatetoother geographicallocationsthatmaybemoresuitableforoysteraquacultureconsideringlocal environmentalchangesGreenhilletal.,2020.Applicationswillbeacceptedvoluntarily. Eligibilitycriteriaanddetailedtermsguidingrelocationandresettlementwillbedeveloped

InNorthCarolina,oneoftheclimateadaptationoptionsinpracticeistorelocateoracquire moreleases,allowingfarmerstomoveshellfishtodifferentsitesbasedonwaterquality andtimeofyear Thispracticehasbeensuccessfullyimplemented,despitethepotential risksofdiseaseandparasitetransferalassociatedwithmovingoysterseed,stock,and equipment.

AlthoughsomeHinaseoysterfarmersmentionedthattheywouldliketomovetoother prefecturestoconductoysteraquacultureforbetterproductionperformance,concerns relatedtothelossoftheessenceofHinaselocalcultureandthelocaleconomywerealso raisedduringthein-personinterviewsPangetal,unpublished)

PolicyOption5 StrengthentheCross-sectorNetworkingFunctionofOysterCoops

TheJapanesegovernmentwillfacilitatethedevelopmentofcollaborativenetworksby bringingtogetheractorsfromgovernment,industry,nonprofits,academia,andcommunities toengageinOAawarenesseffortssuchasinformationsharing,buildingbestpracticesfor sustainablefarming,communicatingpolicyandscientificneedsintheHinasewaters,and innovatingoperationssuchasdiversifyingmarketingchannels.OAisawickedproblemthat requiresthecollaborationofvariousstakeholdersacrosssectorsandorganizational boundaries Thus,theresourcesrequiredtoeffectivelyaddressOA-relatedissuesareoften dispersedacrosssectoralandorganizationalboundaries Topromotethepoolingof resourcestoovercomefragmented,piecemealefforts,governmentscanactasplatformsto promotecollaborativeeffortswithinOysterCoopsinHinase

US regionalcoastalacidificationnetworksCANsworkwithscientistsandstakeholder communitiestoidentifyknowledgegapsandinformationneedsandrecommendregional prioritiesformonitoringandresearch.Theyalsofacilitateengagementandinformation sharingbetweenresearchersandstakeholders,sharebestpracticesforobservationsand datacollection,promotedatasharing,developoutreachandsynthesismaterials,andserve asaresourcehubforOAinformationintheregionNewtonetal,2015

Topromotethepoolingofresourcestoovercomefragmented,piecemealefforts, governmentscanactasplatformstopromotecollaborativeeffortswithinOysterCoopsin Hinase.BasedonthequestionnairesurveywithHinaseoysterfarmers,“Fishcoopˮwasthe topinformationsourcethatfishermen/farmerswouldturntolearnmoreabouttheOA impacts,followedbyscientists Thus,tobuildupastrongnetworkforinformationsharing andtechnicalsupport,otheractorsmustbebetterengagedinthenetwork One opportunityistoutilizethelocalfisherʼsmarket“Gomino-itiˮinHinasetoinnovate marketingstrategiesbeyondthecoop-to-industrymodelsothatthelocalresidentsin Hinasecouldengagemorewiththeoysterindustryandtheassociatedenvironmental issues.DiversifyingnetworkactorscanaddresilienceincasesoffutureOAattacks.

4.3SummaryandFutureOutlooks

Inthissection,wereviewedpolicyoptionstopromoteOAawarenessandsustainable farmingpracticesamongHinaseoysterfarmers Thepolicyoptionsweresuggestedbased oncasesfromothercountries(mainlyUS),however,weanalyzetheachievementsand challengesandassessthetransferabilityofthesepoliciestotheJapanesecontext, consideringexistingresourcesorfacilitiesinJapan.Forexample,wesuggested conductingOAmonitoringbyleveragingcurrentautomaticwaterqualitymonitoring systems,whichwouldrequirelittleadditionalinvestment.Toincreasethediversityof incomesourcesforlocalfarmers,weproposedtocultureseacucumberA japonicus) togetherwithPacificoystersbasedonanexperimentalstudyinJapan Networkingisa crucialwaytobridgeinformationalgapsamongfarmers,scientists,andotherstakeholders ToenhancefarmersʼcapabilitytoadapttoOAthroughthejointeffortsofdifferentactorsin theoysterindustry,wesuggestedstrengtheningthecross-sectornetworkingtoimprove operationalefficiency,diversifymarketingchannels,andproduceoutreachmaterialsfor farmerstoraiseoceanacidificationawareness.

ThispolicyreviewtooktheoysteraquacultureintheHinaseareaasanexamplebuthasthe potentialtobeappliedtootherregionsinJapanfacingthepotentialthreatsofacute environmentalstressorsinthenearfuture JointeffortsbetweenJapanesegovernments andshellfishfarmersarenecessarytoovercomefutureOAthreatsandsustainaquaculture productionandeconomy.Thepolicyoptionsreviewedinthisreportareguidedby cost-efficient,human-centered,andlocally-orienteddesignprinciples.Webelievethis policyreviewcanencourageanequitableandinclusivedecision-makingworkingpatternin thefuturemanagementoffishcoopsatboththelocalandnationalscale

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