Axis - West Melbourne

EDITION 1 | 2025 WESTERN MELBOURNE

WHERE DATA MEETS DIRECTION

A GUIDE BY OBRIEN REAL ESTATE

OBRIEN REAL ESTATE IS A LEADING VICTORIAN AGENCY NETWORK WITH DEEP EXPERTISE ACROSS MELBOURNE. WE COMBINE RIGOROUS DATA ANALYSIS WITH ON‑THE‑GROUND MARKET KNOWLEDGE TO HELP INVESTORS MAKE CONFIDENT DECISIONS.

A GUIDE TO PROPERTY TRENDS, MARKET MOVEMENTS, AND INVESTMENT INSIGHTS ACROSS MELBOURNE’S WEST

4

Melbourne’s western corridor continues to outperform the broader metropolitan market on both population expansion and infrastructure spend. The western suburbs are experiencing significant growth, driven largely by affordability, making this part of Melbourne an increasingly popular choice for homebuyers and investors alike.

With the West Gate Tunnel nearing completion, Melbourne Airport Rail funded to 2032, and the Victorian Big Build funnelling billions into road, rail and health assets, investors have a once‑in‑a‑generation opportunity to capture long‑term value uplift. Axis applies a five-pillar framework to identify the key drivers of growth.

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

Infrastructure Development Population Growth & Demographics Economic/Employment Growth Government Planning/Policy Market Cycle

OBRIEN REAL ESTATE

AXIS | WEST

We apply the framework to 18 key suburbs and help investors and home buyers match strategy to suburb characteristics.

CONTENTS

07

SUBURB SNAPSHOTS

16

MARKET DASHBOARD

20

INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT

22

POPULATION DEMOGRAPHICS

26

OCCUPANCY SNAPSHOT

30

ECONOMIC & EMPLOYMENT GROWTH

38

GOVERNMENT POLICY PLANNING

40

MARKET CYCLE

5

SUBURB METHODOLOGY SELECTION AFFORDABILITY

Either low prices suiting buyers on a budget or relative affordability compared to nearby suburbs.

6 AMENITY

Being the level of lifestyle benefits, from bars and restaurants to boutiques and parklands.

FAMILY APPEAL

Such as dwelling type, perceived safety and proximity to good schools.

LOCATION

OBRIEN REAL ESTATE

AXIS | WEST

Including proximity to the CBD or major hubs, or closeness to natural amentities like beaches.

INVESTMENT PROSPECTS

From rental market conditions to expected imminent upside.

GENTRIFICATION

Being the changing face of a suburb

POPULATION GROWTH

Representing a projected increase in the number of locals.

DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE

Indicating a shift from the current make-up of residents, for example young families replacing downsizing elderly locals.

INFRASTRUCTURE

Looking at major investments in projects that will benefit the suburb or surrounds.

City of Melton

31km

from the CBD

419.7%

5 year population growth

NDA

avg length of ownership

18

parks

6.8 sq km

size

SCHOOLS Government school zones: Aintree Primary School (opened 2021) Yarrabing Secondary College (opened 2024)

SUBURB SNAPSHOTS

AINTREE (WOODLEA)

KEY DEVELOPMENTS • Woodlea Town Centre: $400m retail, dining and civic hub due 2026 • Melbourne Business Park (260 ha logistics estate on Boundary Rd) tipped to create 18 000 jobs—demand driver for rental stock.

GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS • Woodlea Town Centre brings specialty cafés, pilates studios and a Coles– anchored dining lane.

• New primary and secondary schools attract double-income professionals • 70%+ owner-occupation fosters prideof-place landscaping and façade upgrades POTENTIAL DRAWBACK Large pipeline of greenfield lots; prices may track land-release cadence rather than broader market cycle.

https://woodlea.com.au/parks/aintree-reserve/

7

ALBION City of Brimbank

14km

from the CBD

-8.4%

5 year population growth

12 years

avg length of ownership

8 2.5 sq km

parks size

SCHOOLS Government school zones: Albion Primary School, Sunshine College catchment KEY DEVELOPMENTS • Adjacency to Sunshine Superhub Station positions Albion for spill‑over gentrification • Large lot sizes (600 m²+) offer redevelopment upside GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS • Heritage cottages near Albion Station undergoing architect-led renovations • Derrimut Street micro-roastery and weekend farmers’ market draw Footscray spill-over crowd • Sunshine Superhub planning lifts investor interest in town-house infill lots POTENTIAL DRAWBACK Perceived lower socio‑economic profile slows buyer pool expansion.

DEFINITION https://news.brimbank.vic.gov.au/planning-for-the-albion-quarter/

NDA: no data available

ALTONA City of Hobson’s Bay

13km

from the CBD

6.8%

5 year population growth

13 years

avg length of ownership

31

parks

16.6 sq km

size

SCHOOLS Government school zones: Altona Primary School, Altona College (P-12) KEY DEVELOPMENTS • Scarce bayside land plus lifestyle amenity drives long‑run scarcity premium.

• Altona pier and beachfront revitalisation adds tourism and hospitality jobs.

GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS • Foreshore revitalisation adds boardwalk eateries and craft-beer taprooms.

• EV-friendly townhouse projects replace light-industrial sheds off Pier Street.

• Median income now exceeds metro average, signalling white-collar influx POTENTIAL DRAWBACK Price point limits tenant pool relative to inner‑west alternatives.

https://www.parks.vic.gov.au/projects/melbourne-region/altona-pierredevelopment

8

BRAYBROOK/TOTTENHAM City of Maribyrnong

9km 5.3%

5 year population growth

14 years

avg length of ownership

29 8.2 sq km

parks size

KEY DEVELOPMENTS • Tottenham Precinct industrial rezoning to unlock 3,000 dwellings.

• Affordable alternative to Footscray within 10‑km ring.

GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS • Tottenham Precinct rezoning sparks warehouse-to-loft conversions.

• Pop-up art shows in former quarries and new Vietnamese–fusion cafés on Ballarat Rd. • RMIT student spill-over driving demand for boutique rentals.

POTENTIAL DRAWBACK Ongoing soil‑remediation costs in former industrial parcels.

AXIS | WEST OBRIEN REAL ESTATE

from the CBD

SCHOOLS Government school zones: Dinjerra Primary School, Braybrook College

https://braybrookhotel.com.au/

City of Melton

21km

from the CBD

1.2%

5 year population growth

12 years

avg length of ownership

50

parks

10.50 sq km

size

SCHOOLS Government school zones: Caroline Springs College (P-9 & 10-12), Brookside Secondary College zone, Springside West Secondary College.

KEY DEVELOPMENTS • CS Square plaza upgrade and Lakeside promenade activation drive lifestyle appeal and retail employment.

• Western Interstate Freight Terminal (WIFT) earmarked 3 km west—expected to anchor 39 000 logistics jobs regionwide.

GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS • Lakeside promenade activation sees cocktail bars and yoga studios replace takeaway shops.

• CS Square expansion introduces higher-end retailers.

• Average household income up 14% since 2016 Census

https://www.visitmelbourne.com/regions/melbourne/see-and-do/art-and-culture/ literature/caroline-springs-library-and-learning-hub

POTENTIAL DRAWBACK Increasing traffic on Ballarat Rd/M80 as population swells; future value uplift hinges

9

COBBLEBANK City of Melton

38km

from the CBD

100%

5 year population growth

NDA

avg length of ownership

7 8.7 sq km

parks size

SCHOOLS Government school zones: Cobblebank Secondary School (opens 2026), Strathtulloh Primary School zone KEY DEVELOPMENTS • Melton Hospital: ($900m, 17-storey campus) begins main works in 2026, bringing ~3,975 ongoing health jobs.

• Cobblebank Metropolitan Activity Centre (retail + commercial) and Toolern Town Centre structure plan forecast 10,000+ permanent jobs by 2040.

• Melton rail duplication/electrification to Sunshine will cut travel time; staging still subject to final funding—timeline risk if budgets tighten.

GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS • Melton Hospital construction draws health professionals scouting nearby house-and-land packages.

• Cobblebank Village opens with gastropub and artisan bakery.

• Early price gap to metro median narrowing each quarter POTENTIAL DRAWBACK Reliant on Melton rail electrification timing for CBD commute improvements.

https://cobblebankcsh.com.au/location

SUBURB SNAPSHOTS

CAROLINE SPRINGS (CS)

DEER PARK/DERRIMUT City of Brimbank

17km

from the CBD

0.1%

5 year population growth

15 years

avg length of ownership

30

parks

8.6 sq km

size

SCHOOLS Deer Park North Primary School, Victoria University Secondary College KEY DEVELOPMENTS • Station grade‑separation complete; V/ Line service upgrade flagged.

• New Derrimut industrial estate supports local employment hub.

GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS • Costco-anchored retail hub spurs café clusters along Station Rd • Grade-separation and station rebuild improve walkability, encouraging townhouse developments • Vacancy rate <1% signals strong tenant demand from young workers POTENTIAL DRAWBACK Industrial‑residential interface can deter owner‑occupiers in some pockets.

https://www.insideconstruction.com.au/construction-features/sustainabilitytakes-centre-stage-at-new-deer-park-station/

10

FOOTSCRAY City of Maribyrnong

6km

from the CBD

4.8%

5 year population growth

11 years

avg length of ownership

25

size

OBRIEN REAL ESTATE

AXIS | WEST

5 sq km

parks

SCHOOLS Government school zones: Footscray City Primary School, Footscray High (Barkly campus) KEY DEVELOPMENTS • Metro Tunnel and new Footscray Hospital (2026) cement health‑education precinct.

• Cultural and culinary hub attracts young professionals; solid rental demand.

GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS • Continuous café strip renewal on Hopkins St and Leeds St • Craft-brewery trail (Hop Nation, Mr West, Up There) a magnet for innernorth creatives • New Footscray Hospital set to lift whitecollar daytime population POTENTIAL DRAWBACK Significant apartment pipeline may suppress capital growth short‑term.

https://www.visitvictoria.com/regions/melbourne/see-and-do/nature-and-wildlife/ parks-and-gardens/footscray-park

City of Melton

24km

from the CBD

50%

5 year population growth

NDA

avg length of ownership

6

parks

10.50 sq km

size

SCHOOLS Government school zones: Springside West Primary Secondary College, Fraser Rise Primary (opens 2026)

SUBURB SNAPSHOTS

FRASER RISE

KEY DEVELOPMENTS • Plumpton Town Centre and Kororoit Creek road duplication enhance services.

• Strong yield (4%+) in brand‑new stock attracts SMSF investors.

GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS • Plumpton Major Activity Centre pre-leasing to gourmet grocers and boutique gyms • High share of bachelor-degree residents (29%) for a greenfield estate • Surge in duplex approvals aimed at young professionals POTENTIAL DRAWBACK Reliant on Melton rail electrification timing for CBD commute improvements.

https://westwoodland.com.au/westwoods-fraser-rise-named-as-the-nextproperty-hot-spot/

11

HILLSIDE City of Melton

23km

from the CBD

1.6%

5 year population growth

NDA

avg length of ownership

29 8.2 sq km

parks size

SCHOOLS Government school zones: Hillside Primary School, Sydenham Hillside Primary, Copperfield College Senior Campus KEY DEVELOPMENTS • Calder Park Drive grade-separation & Melton rail upgrade ($650m) will ease congestion and add rail capacity by 2028 • Proximity to Watergardens Town Centre (planned commercial expansion) supports retail and office employment GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS • Watergardens Town Centre makeover adds laneway dining, co-working lounge • Upgraded rail and road links shorten CBD commute, enticing city workers • Knock-down-rebuilds replacing 1990s stock with architect-designed homes POTENTIAL DRAWBACK Limited new land—price upside relies on urban-infill approvals and rail upgrade delivering on schedule.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hillside,_Victoria

MANOR LAKES City of Wyndham

33km

from the CBD

-4.5%

5 year population growth

9 years

avg length of ownership

9 16 sq km

parks size

SCHOOLS Government school zones: Manor Lakes College (P-12), Ngarri Primary School (opened 2023) KEY DEVELOPMENTS • Manor Lakes Central expansion (additional 11,385m² retail) adds ~400 ongoing jobs and lifts local amenities.

• Wyndham Vale rail corridor upgrade improves peak frequency; long-term plan for electrification to Geelong GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS • Stage-2 Manor Lakes Central brings Kmart, brew-bar and medical hub • New Ngarri Primary and earlylearning centres signal family-friendly repositioning • Increasing tertiary-educated cohort fuels demand for larger homes POTENTIAL DRAWBACK Commuter-belt location makes capital growth sensitive to petrol prices and railcapacity improvements.

https://www.suburbandevelopment.vic.gov.au/suburban-revitalisation/melton

12

MELTON City of Melton

45km

from the CBD

-1.4%

5 year population growth

11 years

avg length of ownership

23

size

OBRIEN REAL ESTATE

AXIS | WEST

20.3 sq km

parks

SCHOOLS Government school zones: Melton Primary School, Melton Secondary College, Cobblebank Secondary (planned).

KEY DEVELOPMENTS • Melton rail duplication to Sunshine and eventual electrification will cut commute times • Affordable land attracts first‑home buyers, underpinning entry‑level demand GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS • High Street café scene emerging (Third Chapter, Craft & Co) • Council façade-grant program incentivises shop-top housing and art murals • Proposed Western Intermodal Freight Terminal attracts cashed-up logistics managers POTENTIAL DRAWBACK Longer distance to CBD may deter some tenants during economic slowdowns.

https://www.suburbandevelopment.vic.gov.au/suburban-revitalisation/melton

City of Wyndham

22km

from the CBD

33.8%

5 year population growth

10 years

avg length of ownership

97 38.9 sq km

parks size

SCHOOLS Government school zones: Point Cook (P-9), Alamanda College (K-9)

SUBURB SNAPSHOTS

POINT COOK KEY DEVELOPMENTS • Sneydes Road interchange and expanded Aviation Road overpass easing congestion • Coastal lifestyle and school precincts keep vacancy below 2% GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS • Waterfront dining at Sanctuary Lakes and emerging craft-coffee scene on Sneydes Rd • High bachelor-degree rate (41 %) drives demand for premium childcare and pilates studios • Strong EV adoption visible in townhouse estates POTENTIAL DRAWBACK Aircraft noise corridor and limited rail capacity during peak.

https://www.visitmelbourne.com/regions/melbourne/see-and-do/nature-andwildlife/national-parks-and-reserves/point-cook-coastal-park

13

SUNSHINE City of Brimbank

12km

from the CBD

-3.3%

5 year population growth

14 years

avg length of ownership

18 4.7 sq km

https://engage.vic.gov.au/sunshine

parks size

SCHOOLS Government school zones: Sunshine Primary School, Sunshine College (West & Senior) KEY DEVELOPMENTS Melbourne Airport Rail via Sunshine Station Superhub delivers 16‑min airport trip by 2032.

GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS • Sunshine Station Superhub works spark café-strip upgrades along Hampshire Road (specialty coffee, craft-beer taproom, co-working lofts) • Victoria University Sunshine campus expansion brings design and healthscience students, lifting demand for boutique rentals • Weekend farmers’ and makers markets in Sunvale Community Park attract inner-north visitors • Heritage shopfronts on Devonshire Road receiving council façade-refresh grants; several weatherboard cottages undergoing architect-led renovations • Street-art festival and laneway murals funded through Brimbank Cultural Strategy signal creative-industry presence POTENTIAL DRAWBACK Short‑term construction disruption and nearby apartment oversupply.

ST ALBANS City of Brimbank

15km

from the CBD

2%

5 year population growth

15 years

avg length of ownership

36

parks

13 sq km

size

SCHOOLS Government school zones: St Albans East Primary School, St Albans Secondary College KEY DEVELOPMENTS Level‑crossing removals completed; upgraded station improves rail frequency.

Proximity to Sunshine Health, Education & Innovation Precinct underpins job growth.

GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS • $230m station upgrade sparks Vietnamese-fusion eateries and dessert bars on Alfrieda St • Town-house infill replacing post-war weatherboards • Victoria Uni health precinct expansion boosting student rental demand POTENTIAL DRAWBACK Ageing housing stock requires higher cap‑ex for compliance/renovation.

14 https://www.stalbanstowncentre.com.au/about

TARNEIT City of Wyndham

25km 63.1%

5 year population growth

7 years

avg length of ownership

50 AXIS | WEST

from the CBD

38.2 sq km

parks size

SCHOOLS Government school zones: Tarneit College (P-9), Tarneit Senior College KEY DEVELOPMENTS Tarneit North rail station (approved) and Wyndham Stadium precinct will uplift amenities. Australian Bureau of Statistics lists Tarneit among Australia’s top‑five population growth suburbs.

GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS • Tarneit Central lifestyle precinct hears first Michelin-guide chain (Tim Ho Wan) outside CBD • Railway car-park redevelopment slated for mixed-use apartments • 26% of residents under 15 → demand for play-space-centric café concepts

OBRIEN REAL ESTATE

POTENTIAL DRAWBACK Greenfield supply pipeline may put a ceiling on price growth in softer markets.

https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/it-might-be-sketchy-after-darkbut-there-s-a-reason-why-tarneit-is-the-happiest-suburb-20230730-p5dsbx.html

City of Wyndham

19km

from the CBD

42.4%

5 year population growth

9 years

avg length of ownership

16

parks

3.8 sq km

size

SCHOOLS Government school zones: Laverton College (P-12), Seabrook Primary School

SUBURB SNAPSHOTS

WILLIAMS LANDING KEY DEVELOPMENTS • Master‑planned town centre with major employers (Target HQ) • Direct freeway and rail access drives above‑average household incomes GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS • Overton Rd café corridor now hosts specialty roasters and child-friendly brunch venues • Commercial towers bring white-collar lunch-time economy • Premium apartment projects (Parkgreen, Summit) achieving $9k +/ m² off-plan POTENTIAL DRAWBACK Significant apartment pipeline may suppress capital growth short‑term.

15 https://ndy.com/experience/williams-landing-station

WERRIBEE City of Wyndham

32km

from the CBD

24%

5 year population growth

10 years

avg length of ownership

69

parks

42.7 sq km

size

SCHOOLS Government school zones: Werribee Primary School, Werribee Secondary College (select entry) KEY DEVELOPMENTS Werribee East Employment Precinct slated to bring 58,000 jobs. Riverwalk and Princes Freeway upgrade enhance family appeal and CBD access.

GENTRIFICATION SIGNALS • Wyndham Park riverfront activation (artisan market, open-air cinema) draws weekend visitors • University of Melbourne’s U-Vet relocation and Riverwalk Primary attract educated households • Historic shopfronts along Watton St undergoing terrace-style refurbishments POTENTIAL DRAWBACK Ongoing house‑and‑land releases could cap short‑term capital growth.

https://www.visitmelbourne.com/regions/melbourne/destinations/werribee

HOUSES SUBURB

OBRIEN REAL ESTATE

AXIS | WEST

16

MEDIAN HOUSE PRICE

MEDIAN WEEKLY RENT

GROSS RENTAL YIELD

5-YEAR COMPOUND GROWTH

AINTREE

$721,250

$535

4.0%

18.24%

ALBION

$755,000

$492

3.4%

7.09%

ALTONA

$1,170,000

$600

3.0%

28.57%

BRAYBROOK

$745,000

$565

3.6%

13.05%

CAROLINE SPRINGS

$736,000

$550

3.6%

11.59%

COBBLEBANK

$610,000

$460

4.1%

20.20%

DEER PARK

$665,500

$500

3.8%

16.04%

FOOTSCRAY

$920,000

$600

3.5%

12.20%

FRASER RISE

$700,000

$525

4.0%

12.00%

MARKET DASHBOARD SUBURB

MEDIAN HOUSE PRICE

MEDIAN WEEKLY RENT

GROSS RENTAL YIELD

5-YEAR COMPOUND GROWTH

HILLSIDE

$790,000

$530

3.5%

21.54%

MANOR LAKES

$641,000

$480

3.8%

14.87%

MELTON

$479,000

$400

4.2%

22.82%

POINT COOK

$770,000

$560

3.7%

21.26%

SUNSHINE

$782,500

$500

3.4%

4.33%

ST ALBANS

$666,500

$470

3.6%

11.08%

TARNEIT

$655,000

$530

4.3%

16.96%

WILLIAMS LANDING

$815,000

$590

4.0%

23.48%

WERRIBEE

$610,000

$470

3.9%

19.61%

17

UNITS SUBURB

OBRIEN REAL ESTATE

AXIS | WEST

18

MEDIAN UNIT PRICE

MEDIAN WEEKLY RENT

GROSS RENTAL YIELD

5-YEAR COMPOUND GROWTH

AINTREE

NDA

NDA

4.7%

NDA

ALBION

$281,000

$390

4.6%

-24.05%

ALTONA

$709,250

$490

4.1%

11.69%

BRAYBROOK

$610,000

$520

4.5%

3.87%

CAROLINE SPRINGS

$500,000

$500

5.0%

6.38%

COBBLEBANK

NDA

NDA

5.2%

NDA

DEER PARK

$510,000

$440

4.8%

8.51%

FOOTSCRAY

$475,000

$510

5.9%

-4.62%

FRASER RISE

NDA

NDA

4.6%

NDA

MARKET DASHBOARD SUBURB

MEDIAN HOUSE PRICE

MEDIAN WEEKLY RENT

GROSS RENTAL YIELD

5-YEAR COMPOUND GROWTH

$580,000

$450

4.7%

14.74%

NDA

NDA

4.7%

NDA

MELTON

$379,000

$380

5.3%

19.18%

POINT COOK

$530,000

$490

4.8%

16.48%

SUNSHINE

$458,000

$460

4.6%

17.44%

ST ALBANS

$508,000

$430

4.7%

12.14%

TARNEIT

$458,000

$460

4.9%

16.54%

WILLIAMS LANDING

$410,000

$487

5.6%

0.74%

WERRIBEE

$430,000

$410

4.9%

12.27%

HILLSIDE

MANOR LAKES

19

With the new Metro Tunnel, Western Distributor and West Gate Tunnel due to open late 2025, and Footscray Hospital due to open February 2026, it is clear that Victoria is “on the move”.

20

The west leads Victoria for committed transport spend. The West Gate Tunnel will shave up to 20 minutes off peak commutes from Werribee and Point Cook, while the Sunshine Station Superhub anchors both Suburban Rail Loop and Melbourne Airport Rail. Improved accessibility historically inflates land values within a 2km radius of new stations and interchanges.

OBRIEN REAL ESTATE

AXIS | WEST

The federal government has upped its pledge by $2b to now total $7b contribution to Airport Rail Link in order to get the project kick started.

Part of the pledge goes towards 6kms of tracks between Footscray and Sunshine which will be upgraded with new signalling and a separation that will allow the Melton train line to become electrified. Works are expected to take 4 years alone which includes a major upgrade to the Sunshine Station (which is being coined the Southern Cross Station of the West).

Part of the Airport Rail link includes a massive rail bridge and Keilor East Train Station. All rail works for the west means better regional train services, which will take up to 2033 to complete and see trains coming out of Tullamarine.

INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT The electrification of the Melton line is not included in this time line and neither is it in combined State and Federal budgets of $12b.

The costs to build will be massive with new tracks to be laid. Future budgets will hopefully approve these works in years to come.

The 2025-26 Victorian State Budget includes increased funding for V/Line services, specifically focusing on boosting regional train services and improving reliability. This includes $52 million to increase carriages on Bendigo weekend services, add extra peak hour services to Seymour, and deliver 40-minute interpeak services between Traralgon and Melbourne.

The budget also commits $270 million to maintain V/Line’s network and ensure a reliable and safe passenger experience. Additionally, $99 million is allocated to increase services on the Sandringham, Craigieburn, Upfield, Werribee, and Gippsland lines.

Suburban Rail Loop (SRL) Airport extends from Melbourne Airport to Sunshine. SRL Airport will connect Melbourne Airport to Victoria’s regional and metropolitan train network for the first time, with direct access to Melbourne Airport from more than 30 stations without the need to change trains. A new station in Keilor East will also be built as part of the project. A regional rail connection will also be built from Werribee to Sunshine as part the SRL West project.

A new Tram Maintenance Facility is being built in Maidstone to house, clean and maintain Victoria’s newest trams. These new and improved trams will be rolling out across route 57 and 82.

The Victorian Government has committed more than $900 million to deliver a new Melton Hospital in 2029. The brand-new hospital will support the growing and diverse communities of Caroline Springs, Rockbank, Melton, Bacchus Marsh and Gisborne. It will ensure the people of Melbourne’s west get the care they need, close to home.

The hospital will be Victoria’s first all-electric hospital and with a 24-hour emergency department, 274 beds, an intensive care unit, maternity and neonatal services, mental health services, radiology services and ambulatory care. Once completed, Melton Hospital will have the capacity to treat 130,000 patients each year and see almost 60,000 patients in the emergency department.

https://woodmarsh.com.au/portfolio/westgate-tunnel/

21

POPULATION DEMOGRAPHICS Out of all of Western Melbourne, Wyndham has the second largest population forecast, tipped to jump 47 percent by 2046. Melton has the largest forecast with a staggering 89 percent, underpinning sustained housing demand. Tarneit and Fraser Rise alone will require an additional 38,000 dwellings over the next two decades.

SUBURB

OBRIEN REAL ESTATE

AXIS | WEST

22

MEDIAN WEEKLY INCOME

AVG HOUSEHOLD SIZE

AVG BEDROOMS PER DWELLING

SUNSHINE

$1,566

2.6

2.8

WERRIBEE

$1,645

2.7

3.3

TARNEIT

$2,103

3.4

3.7

ST ALBANS

$1,205

2.8

3

FRASER RISE

$2,276

3.2

3.7

ALTONA

$1,826

2.3

2.9

POINT COOK

$2,392

3.2

3.8

MELTON

$1,058

2.4

3.1

DEER PARK

$1,456

2.9

3.2

OWNERSHIP PERCENTAGE

RENTING PERCENTAGE

TOTAL DWELLINGS

75.3

58.6

3,984

75.3

59

19,890

71.6

65.3

17,274

65

52.9

14,455

72.3

62.4

2,869

79.2

61.9

5,440

74.7

68.4

22,500

67.2

50.5

3,537

67.8

54.8

6,641

23

POPULATION DEMOGRAPHICS SUBURB

MEDIAN WEEKLY INCOME

AVG HOUSEHOLD SIZE

AVG BEDROOMS PER DWELLING

WILLIAMS LANDING

$2,582

3.2

3.7

FOOTSCRAY

$1,763

2.1

2.2

BRAYBROOK

$1,451

2.7

2.8

ALBION

$1,310

2.3

2.5

COBBLEBANK

$1,920

3.4

3.8

AINTREE

$2,348

3.1

4

MANOR LAKES

$2,296

3.3

3.7

HILLSIDE

$2,190

3.2

3.6

CAROLINE SPRINGS

$2,134

3.1

3.5

OBRIEN REAL ESTATE

AXIS | WEST

24

OWNERSHIP PERCENTAGE

RENTING PERCENTAGE

TOTAL DWELLINGS

74.4

73.6

3,186

79.3

63.9

9,873

68.2

60.8

3,973 25

77.8

58.6

2,202

72.3

62.2

1,127

70

66.4

2,317

77.6

65.1

4,052

73

58.7

5,695

72.1

61.2

8,226

OCCUPANCY SNAPSHOT

OBRIEN REAL ESTATE

AXIS | WEST

26

SUBURB

PEOPLE

LABOUR FORCE PERCENTAGE

% AGED 65+

SUNSHINE

9,445

60.5

14

WERRIBEE

50,027

62.1

13.1

TARNEIT

56,370

69.6

4.1

ST ALBANS

38,042

48.7

17.8

FRASER RISE

9,097

74.5

4.2

ALTONA

11,490

62.7

19.4

POINT COOK

66,781

71.4

5.9

MELTON

7,953

45.6

20.4

DEER PARK

18,145

54.8

14.5

MEDIAN AGE

% UNDER 15

BACHELOR PERCENTAGE

35

16.2

29.8

35

20.5

21.3

30

29

37.7

36

16.3

16.5

31

28.1

30.2

42

17.2

31.8

33

27.4

41.1

40

18.8

9.6

27

DEFINITIONS LABOUR FORCE PERCENTAGE: The percentage of people working in the labour industry.

35

20.3

19

BACHELOR PERCENTAGE: The percentage of people with a bachelor’s degree.

OCCUPANCY SNAPSHOT

OBRIEN REAL ESTATE

AXIS | WEST

28

SUBURB

PEOPLE

LABOUR FORCE PERCENTAGE

% AGED 65+

WILLIAMS LANDING

9,448

73.9

3.8

FOOTSCRAY

17,131

68.7

11

BRAYBROOK

9,682

58.4

12.3

ALBION

4,334

58.8

15.1

COBBLEBANK

3,601

69.6

2.4

AINTREE

7,982

75.2

3

MANOR LAKES

12,675

73.6

4

HILLSIDE

17,331

69.5

9.6

CAROLINE SPRINGS

24,488

68.9

8.3

OCCUPANCY SNAPSHOT

MEDIAN AGE

% UNDER 15

BACHELOR PERCENTAGE

31

24.3

48.5

34

10.6

43.2

34

5.5

27.1

35

14.2

27.7

29

32.1

28.4

30

31.6

39.1

31

29.8

39.2

36

19.6

21

35

22.9

27.7

29

ECONOMIC & EMPLOYMENT GROWTH The Victorian Government’s Activity Centre Program, aims to build 300,000 new homes within the eventual 60 activity centres, of which only 10 have so far been released these being: Preston (High Street), Broadmeadows, Niddrie (Keilor Road), North Essendon, Moorabbin, RIngwood, Frankston, Epping, Camberwell Junction and Chadstone Activity Centre.

The activity centres aims for housing to be well-located by allowing the maximise use of existing infrastructure, services, jobs, green space and public transport. The idea for residents in living in these new zones will make day-to-day life easier, more convenient, and more sustainable. Following strong community feedback on the first 10 activity centres in 2024, Victorians valued strong transport connections. Planning for the next 25 activity centres is underway and will be released in later in 2025.

30

AINTREE (WOODLEA) PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

•

•

•

OBRIEN REAL ESTATE

AXIS | WEST

•

Melbourne Business Park (260 ha): 18,000 local jobs across logistics, manufacturing and wholesale trade when built out $45m Woodlea Town Centre retail/dining hub (opened 2021) adds several hundred retail & hospitality roles

Logistics & warehousing, large-format retail, construction

Stockland / Mt Atkinson & Mirvac JV at Melbourne Business Park; Woodlea Town Centre mixed-use precinct; Hopkins Rd Business Precinct

ALBION PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

•

•

•

Shares the Sunshine Superhub employment uplift. Albion Station redevelopment included in the same works package, adding rail & construction

Construction, rail operations

Albion Station rebuild; commercial TOD opportunities around the new concourse

PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

•

•

•

Limited land supply equals modest absolute job growth; focus on renewed foreshore tourism/ hospitality and high-tech industry in the Williamstown Rd petro-chem cluster

Petro-chemicals, marine services, tourism

Altona pier & beachfront revitalisation program; Hobsons Bay Smart Energy precinct.

ECONOMIC & EMPLOYMENT GROWTH

ALTONA

BRAYBROOK PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

•

•

•

•

Tottenham Precinct urban-renewal (former freight yards, $1.2 bn): rezoning approved 2024 for ~3 000 dwellings plus ≈2 500 permanent jobs in neighbourhood retail, health and education once fully built-out (2032).

Central West shopping-centre master-plan (lodged 2025) earmarks 18 000 m² extra commercial floorspace → 300 construction jobs, 600 ongoing roles in specialty retail & medical suites.

Neighbourhood retail & services, small-format logistics (“last-mile”), education & allied health

Tottenham Precinct mixed-use campus (lead developer: Perri Projects & Salta); Central West upgrade (Tipalea Partners); new microfulfilment centres for Woolworths/Coles taking advantage of West Gate Tunnel connectivity

31

CAROLINE SPRINGS (CS) PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

•

•

•

•

Western Interstate Freight Terminal (Truganina) plus proposed Outer Metro Road will underpin 39,000 freight & logistics jobs across the region; CS sits less than 3km east of the 100km freight corridor CS Square plaza upgrade driving new lifestyle appeal & retail employment

Freight & logistics, warehousing, retail

Western Intermodal Freight Terminal; CS Square mall expansion; Outer Metropolitan Ring transport corridor.

COBBLEBANK PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

•

•

•

•

Melton Hospital: 2,400 construction jobs and 3,975 ongoing health jobs in year 1 of operations (opens 2029).

Council forecasts the hospital will catalyse 22,000 additional jobs in the Cobblebank Metropolitan Activity Centre. melton.vic.gov.au westernhealth.org.au

Healthcare, retail & commercial services, construction

New Melton Hospital campus; Cobblebank Metropolitan Activity Centre retail & office precinct; rail duplication/ electrification to Sunshine. conversations.melton.vic. gov.au

DEER PARK PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

•

•

•

Costco Ardeer $118m warehouse opened Apr 2025; typical Costco format generates ≈300–350 ongoing retail roles plus seasonal

Large-format retail, logistics

Costco (Ardeer), additional auto & tradesupply outlets clustering along Ballarat Rd

FOOTSCRAY

32

PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

•

•

•

New Footscray Hospital ($1.5bn, 500 beds) completes 2026; Western Health & Compass Group expect 2,000 clinical & 300 support

Health, tertiary education, creative industries

Victoria Uni research hub; Metro Tunnel western portal; NEXTDC M3 data centre nearby

FRASER RISE/PLUMPTON PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

•

•

•

Plumpton Town Centre & sports reserve will anchor a new community hub; Melton Local Government Area (LGA) forecasts +89 % population ~40,000 extra local jobs by 2046 (retail, education, services)

Retail services, education, construction

Plumpton Major Activity Centre; Kororoit Creek road-duplication tradesuppliers strip

OBRIEN REAL ESTATE

AXIS | WEST

HILLSIDE/SYDENHAM PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

•

•

•

•

Calder Park Dr level-crossing removal & road bridge—part of Sunbury Line program—supports hundreds of construction roles through to 2025. bigbuild. vic.gov.aubigbuild.vic.gov.au Watergardens Town Centre refresh and tenant expansion continues to add retail jobs (21 vacancies listed Feb 2025).

Retail & hospitality, transport, construction

Watergardens Town Centre (QIC); Sunbury Line capacity upgrade; Calder Park Drive roadbridge infrastructure.

ECONOMIC & EMPLOYMENT GROWTH

FIG 1

33

FIG 2

FIG 3 DEVELOPMENTS IN THE WEST FIG 1: Metro Tunnel FIG 2: Sunshine Station Regional Superhub FIG 3: Artist impression of Airport Station

FIG 4

34

AXIS | WEST

FIG 5

OBRIEN REAL ESTATE

FIG 6 DEVELOPMENTS IN THE WEST FIG 4: 14km of new bike and walking trails from Westgate Freeway to CBD FIG 5: Footscray Hospital FIG 6: Melton Hospital

PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

•

•

•

•

Manor Lakes Central (Stage 2): $60m expansion creating 300 construction jobs and 400 ongoing retail positions. denniscorp.com.aumanorlakes.com.au Wyndham Vale rail-corridor upgrade supports short-term civil-construction employment.

Retail & personal services, transport, education

Expanded Manor Lakes Central (Kmart, 20+ specialty stores); upgraded Wyndham Vale Station; Anytime Fitness & specialty food anchors.

ECONOMIC & EMPLOYMENT GROWTH

MANOR LAKES

MELTON PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

•

•

•

Western Interstate Freight Terminal (WIFT) proposal in Truganina & Outer Metro Ring Road package could create 39,000 jobs across logistics, warehousing & road/rail worksleadwest.com.au

Freight & warehousing, advanced logistics

National Intermodal freight hub (subject to Commonwealth approval)

35

POINT COOK PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

•

•

•

No single mega-project but steady expansion of education & defence-adjacent jobs (RAAF Williams), plus retail growth in Sneydes Rd precinct

Education, defence services, retail

Future secondary college campus; new large-format homemaker centre

SUNSHINE PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

•

•

•

•

1,200 construction jobs on the Sunshine Station Superhub (2026-30) Brimbank projects the resident & jobs population to double by 2050 within the Sunshine Priority Precinct brimbank.vic.gov.au

Transport & logistics, education, health

Melbourne Airport Rail operations hub; Victoria University campus expansion; retail cluster anchored by Highpoint West

ST ALBANS PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

•

•

•

Station grade-separation complete; healthcare services growth tied to Sunshine Hospital precinct (see above). No discrete LGA forecast, but Brimbank’s +19% population growth implies 8,000 extra local jobs by 2046

Health, allied services, small-scale manufacturing

Sunshine Health, Education & Innovation Precinct spill-over tenancies

TARNEIT PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

•

•

•

•

Wyndham Stadium Precinct: 835 construction jobs + 125 ongoing roles (stadium ops, allied health, retail) Future mixed-use “mini-Melbourne” entertainment hub tipped to add further hospitality

Sport & entertainment, hospitality, retail

Western United FC 15,000-seat stadium, Ironbark Fields sporting complex

36

OBRIEN REAL ESTATE

AXIS | WEST

WILLIAMS LANDING PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

•

•

•

Master-planned CBD continues to fill: Target HQ & SEEK / MyDeal offices anchor 2,500+ white-collar roles once final towers delivered (council EOI data, 2024)

ICT, head-office admin, retail

Cedar Woods stage-4 commercial towers; Wyndham City Civic Centre satellite

WERRIBEE PROJECTED NEW JOBS/MAJOR PROJECTS

KEY GROWTH INDUSTRIES

FLAGSHIP NEW EMPLOYERS/ ASSETS

•

•

•

East Werribee Employment Precinct slated for 58,300 permanent jobs across health, education, tech & agribusiness vpa.vic.gov.au vic.gov.au

Bio-science, advanced manufacturing, higher-ed

St Vincent’s Private Hospital, CSIRO Agribio hub, university research campuses

ECONOMIC & EMPLOYMENT GROWTH

FIG 7

37

FIG 8

FIG 9 DEVELOPMENTS IN THE WEST FIG 7: West Gate Tunnel FIG 8: Hudson Hub - new commercial project in WIlliams Landing - https://www. cedarwoods.com.au/williams-landing/commercial/offices-for-sale/hudson-hub/ FIG 9: Costco Ardeer - https://mainbrace.com.au/projects/costco-ardeer/

GOVERNMENT POLICY PLANNING The Labor government’s housing promises from the recent 2025 federal election, focusing on how they plan to support Australians into housing, assist first-home buyers, address deposit challenges, support renters, enhance affordability, and boost home construction.

38

SUPPORT FOR FIRST HOME BUYERS

OBRIEN REAL ESTATE

AXIS | WEST

Deposit Scheme (Expanded First Home Guarantee) Labor has expanded the existing First Home Guarantee scheme, allowing all first-home buyers to purchase a home with just a 5% deposit without paying Lenders Mortgage Insurance (LMI). Previously, this scheme had income and participant caps, but the expansion removes these limitations, making it accessible to a broader range of buyers. For example, a Sydneysider could buy a $1 million property with a $50,000 deposit, saving up to $20,000 in LMI costs.

Help to Buy Shared Equity Scheme This initiative enables eligible buyers to copurchase a home with the government, which can contribute up to 40% of the purchase price for new homes (30% for existing homes). This reduces the amount buyers need to borrow, lowering monthly repayments and making homeownership more attainable. Help to Buy is expected to open for applications later this year (following registration of the program directions, passage of state legislation, and implementation

by Housing Australia). Purchase price cap increasing to 950k (up from $800k) for Metro Melbourne and 650k for regional (unchanged).

Construction of 100,000 Homes for FirstHome Buyers Labor has committed $10 billion to build up to 100,000 homes exclusively for first-home buyers. These homes will be constructed in partnership with states, developers, and community housing providers, with construction commencing in 2026-27 and occupancy beginning the following financial year.

Housing Australia Future Fund (HAFF) The HAFF is a $10 billion investment fund aimed at building 30,000 new social and affordable homes over five years. The fund’s returns are used to finance the construction of these homes, addressing the housing supply shortage and improving affordability.

SUPPORT FOR RENTERS

BROADER HOUSING SUPPLY INITIATIVES

Commonwealth Rent Assistance (CRA) Labor plans to increase the CRA payments to provide additional support to low-income renters, helping to alleviate rental stress and improve housing affordability.

National Housing Accord Labor has set a target to build 1.2 million new homes by mid-2029 through the National Housing Accord. This ambitious plan involves collaboration with state governments and the private sector to accelerate housing construction and address the national housing shortage.

One key reason new home construction hasn’t progressed as quickly as the government anticipated is that taxes make up 42% of the total cost of building a new home.

Build-to-Rent Incentives To boost the supply of rental properties, Labor has introduced tax incentives for developers to construct build-to-rent housing. This initiative aims to deliver approximately 80,000 additional rental units over a decade, increasing rental availability and stabilising prices.

ADDITIONAL MEASURES Ban on Foreign Purchases of Existing Homes To prioritise Australian buyers and reduce competition in the housing market, Labor has implemented a two-year ban on foreign investors purchasing existing residential properties.

39

MARKET CYCLE Melbourne’s western corridor is entering a rare window of value.

Median house prices sit 15-30 per cent below the metropolitan benchmark, yet billions in committed infrastructure— West Gate Tunnel, Melbourne Airport Rail and the Sunshine Superhub — are already under construction. Population forecasts point to Wyndham and Melton LGAs, growing by 155,557 and 214,859 respectively, underpinning rental demand and long-term capital growth.

Savvy buyers can still access spacious three- and four-bedroom homes for

OBRIEN REAL ESTATE

AXIS | WEST

40

the price of an inner-city apartment, lock in yields above four per cent and ride the upswing as major projects complete and constrained supply meets accelerating household formation.

This is the west’s pivotal moment.

Nationally across the 6 major capital cities, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide have had a 5-year boom in real estate from 2020 to today, the chart at right shows you the generational opportunity that exists in Melbourne with only a 2.8% increase.

MARKET CYCLE

MAY 2020 T0 MAY 2025 (POST COVID) 5 YEAR GROWTH DATA CITY

MAY 2020

MAY 2025

5 YR GROWTH

SYDNEY

$885,159

$1,203,395

+35.9%

MELBOURNE

$770,000

$791,303

+2.8%

41

BRISBANE

$506,553

$917,992

+81.3%

ADELAIDE

$475,000

$829,695

+74.6%

PERTH

$465,291

$813,810

+74.9%

HOBART

$519,739

$673,858

+29.7%

*Note: figures are approximate, based on available data. Prices are for combined dwellings for houses & units.

MAY 2015 TO MAY 2020 (PRE COVID) Winding the clock back 5 years prior to Covid the numbers show a different growth pattern particularly for Melbourne, where it has enjoyed the title of the 3rd best performing capital city with 26.2% growth, a stark contrast to the 2.8%, 5 years later. Hobart experienced the highest growth over the five-year period, with a significant increase of 55.1% in median dwelling prices.

10 YEAR GROWTH DATA CITY

OBRIEN REAL ESTATE

AXIS | WEST

42

MAY 2015

MAY 2020

5 YR GROWTH

SYDNEY

$690,000

$885,159

+28.3%

MELBOURNE

$610,000

$770,000

+26.2%

BRISBANE

$490,000

$506,553

+3.4%

ADELAIDE

$405,000

$475,000

+17.3%

PERTH

$513,000

$465,291

-9.3%

HOBART

$335,000

$519,739

+55.1%

*Note: May 2015 figures are approximate, based on available data. Prices are for combined dwellings for houses & units.

MARKET CYCLE

43

OBRIEN REAL ESTATE

AXIS | WEST

44

MARKET CYCLE

MAY 2015 TO MAY 2025 The table below paints the stories of growth over the last 10 years. Adelaide and Hobart had the highest growth over the past decade, with increases of 104.9% and 101.2%, respectively. This growth is attributed to factors such as affordability, lifestyle appeal, and increased interstate migration. Brisbane has also seen significant growth of 81.3%, driven by strong population growth and infrastructure development. Perth’s growth of 58.7% reflects a recovery from earlier market downturns, supported by the mining sector and increased demand. Sydney and Melbourne have experienced more moderate growth of 48.6% and 29.7%, respectively, due to higher base prices and affordability constraints.

10 YEAR GROWTH DATA CITY

MAY 2015

MAY 2025

10 YR GROWTH

SYDNEY

$810,000

$1,203,395

+48.6%

MELBOURNE

$610,000

$791,303

+29.7%

BRISBANE

$506,553

$917,992

+81.3%

ADELAIDE

$405,000

$829,695

+104.9%

PERTH

$513,000

$813,810

+58.7%

HOBART

$335,000

$673,858

+101.2%

*Note: May 2015 figures are approximate, based on available data. Prices are for combined dwellings for houses & units.

45

MAY 2023 TO MAY 2025 Judging by the table below, the 2 year trend across the 6 capital cities paints a renewal of growth for all states a part from Melbourne. Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth have experienced the highest growth over the past two years, each with approximately 10% increases in median dwelling values.

Sydney has seen moderate growth of 4.6%, while Hobart’s growth has been more subdued at 2.1%.

Melbourne is the only capital city to record a decline in median dwelling values over the two-year period, with a decrease of 2.3%.

2 YEAR GROWTH DATA CITY

AXIS | WEST

46

MAY 2023

MAY 2025

2 YR GROWTH

SYDNEY

$1,150,000

$1,203,395

+4.6%

MELBOURNE

$810,000

$791,303

-2.3%

BRISBANE

$834,000

$917,992

+10.1%

ADELAIDE

$754,000

$829,695

+10.0%

PERTH

$740,000

$813,810

+10.0%

HOBART

$660,000

$673,858

-2.1%

OBRIEN REAL ESTATE

*Note: Somes figures are approximate, based on available data. Prices are for combined dwellings for houses & units.

MARKET CYCLE

IN

SUMMARY

Melbourne’s comparatively modest property growth over the past decade and particularly the last 5 and 2 years can be attributed to a range of factors—many of which extend beyond government policy. At the heart of it is what can best be described as a COVID-19 hangover—a unique circumstance that no other capital city faced to the same extent.

While government initiatives like the 10-year COVID Land Tax levy and the introduction of stricter regulations for landlords (rental providers) have certainly played a role, they are only part of the story.

Victoria also faces significant state debt, yet it is actively investing in its future through transformative infrastructure programs such as the Big Build. When it comes to tenancy reforms, Victoria has led the nation, and while some may criticise the extent of these changes, other states are expected to follow suit—if not fully, then in part.

Another contributing factor to Melbourne’s slower growth may lie in the lack of new support mechanisms for first-home buyers.

The stamp duty concessions have remained unchanged since 2017. It still offers a full exemption up to $600,000 and a partial concession up to $750,000—providing no adjustment for inflation or market movement since 2017.

Taxation on investment properties also remains a point of contention. The recently passed Fire Services Levy—as of May 2025—now places a heavier financial burden on landlords compared to owneroccupiers, with the government anticipating an additional $2 billion in revenue.

But within this uncertainty lies opportunity.

As Warren Buffett famously said, “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” For astute investors, Melbourne’s market conditions may represent precisely that kind of moment.

To summarise, Melbourne landlords have had 2 varied reactions to the Government policy. The first being “it’s all too hard” and “we’re not playing anymore”. The second being, “we’re in it for the long run”.

A recent study conducted over two decades puts these mindsets into perspective, approximately one in five investment properties are sold within the first year of ownership, while 28 per cent are held for more than 20 years. The motto should always be “buy well and never sell”.

47

In 2025, realestate.com.au announced their Hot 100 Suburbs of Victoria, 3 of which being suburbs in Melbourne’s west. Werribee, Sunshine West and Braybrook were named in the Hot 100 Suburbs, due to their affordable housing, with houses being up to 20% cheaper than what was typically seen in other parts of Victoria. Shepparton and Karingal were also included in the Hot 100 for their affordability.

SUBURB

MEDIAN HOUSE PRICE

MEDIAN UNIT PRICE

WERRIBEE

$613,750

$430,000

SUNSHINE WEST

$675,500

$605,000

BRAYBROOK

$730,000

$600,000

KARINGAL

$865,000

$490,000

SHEPPARTON

$460,000

$380,000

48

OBRIEN REAL ESTATE

AXIS | WEST

More information can be found here: https://www.realestate.com.au/insights/hottest-affordable-suburbs-for-2025-in-yourstate/ Source: PropTrack.

MARKET CYCLE

FIG 10

49

FIG 11

FIG 12 TOP 100 SUBURBS FIG 10: Braybrook - Camp Ground Kitchen & Bar - https://www.visitmelbourne.com/ regions/melbourne/destinations/melbournes-west FIG 11: Werribee - Werribee River - https://www.wyndham.vic.gov.au/visitor-economyindustry-hub FIG 12: Sunshine West - Sunshine Social - https://www.mammaknowswest.com.au/ mammasyummies-content/sunshine-social-sunshine-west

SOURCES & DISCLAIMER

50

Data sources: realestate.com.au Forecast.id SQM Research Victorian Government Big Build project announcements.

Census 2021 Victorian Planning Authority Cotality Chat GPT The information contained in the Axis Guide is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice.

While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the information provided. Readers are encouraged to seek independent professional advice before making any property or financial decisions.

OBrien Real Estate disclaims all liability for any loss or damage arising from reliance on the information contained in this guide.

OBRIEN REAL ESTATE

AXIS | WEST

WORDS & DATA BY JASON MUDFORD DESIGN & CREATIVE BY OLIVIA WARDEN

SCAN TO DOWNLOAD YOUR INTERACTIVE, DIGITAL COPY

OUR PARTNERS IN PROPERTY 51

Blank Financial Mortgage Broker 1800 1 BLANK

Victorian Statewide Conveyancing Professional conveyancing services 03 8790 5488 info@victorianstatewide.com.au

TDA Tax Depreciation Tax Depreciation Specialists 1300 417 317

WHERE DATA MEETS DIRECTION

OBRIEN DEER PARK 2/19 RADNOR DRIVE, DEER PARK 03 9307 4488 OBRIEN MELTON 284-286 HIGH STREET, MELTON 03 9743 9743 OBRIEN SEDDON 156 VICTORIA STREET, SEDDON 03 9191 1995 OBRIEN ST ALBANS 22 ALFRIEDA STREET, ST ALBANS 03 9366 8188 OBRIEN SUNSHINE 4A/282 HAMPSHIRE ROAD, SUNSHINE 03 9311 6884 OBRIEN SYDENHAM 17B OVERTON LEA BOULEVARD, SYDENHAM 03 9449 4488 OBRIEN WERRIBEE 2/85 SYNNOT STREET, WERRIBEE 03 9742 7557