NCBIA August 2022 BUILDER Newsletter

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BUR ILDE NEWSLETTER N O R T H C O A S T B U I L D I N G I N D U S T R Y A S S O C I A T I O N north coast bia, sheffield village, oh 44035 www.ncbia.com August 2022 vol. XLIII no. 8 Don's Miss the Annual NCBIA Clambake! Saturday, September 24th, 2022

There has never been a better time to be a Carter Lumber customer in the service.materialsourmorearea.Cleveland/AkronWenowhaveevenresourcestoprovidecustomerswithqualityandexceptional We’re more than just a lumberyard! Contact your nearest store location to see how having Carter Lumber as a part of your team can help you grow your business and your bottom line. carterlumber.com 41625 Griswold Rd. Elyria, OH 44035 • (440) 934-5266 6199 SOM Center Rd. Solon, OH 44139 • (440) 248-5355 467 Center St. Chardon, OH 44024 • (440) 286-3833 172 N. Case Ave. Akron, OH 44305 • (330) 784-5441 3779 Manchester Rd. Akron, OH 44319 • (330) 645-6404 3725 Medina Rd. Medina, OH 44256 • (330) 725-6760 6320 N. Ridge Rd. Madison, OH 44057 • (440) 428-1110 IMAGINE THE POSSIBILITIES

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These are who represent DC Construction Kousma, (alternate) Construction at Construction Majzun, Construction Co. (alternate) Vice-President Builder at

& Right

Felton, Guardian Title Jack

Lake Star

Tom

Dale Yost Construction Liz Schneider Dollar Bank Mary

Vorndran, 84 Lumber Tom

Sr. NAHB Life Director Randy Strauss, Strauss

LLC Randy Strauss, Strauss

NCBIA Office 5077 Waterford Dr. Suite 302 Sheffield Village, OH 44035 Phone: 440.934.1090 info@ncbia.com | www.ncbia.com NCBIA Staff Executive Officer Judie Docs | judie@ncbia.com Executive Assistant LaBreeska Bellan | labreeskancbia@gmail.com Marketing Associate Ashlyn Bellan | ashlynncbia@gmail.com 2022 NCBIA Officers President Sara Majzun, Majzun Construction Co. Vice President Tim King, K. Hovnanian Homes - Ohio Division Associate Vice President John Toth, Floor Coverings International Treasurer Melanie Stock, Treasurer, First Federal Savings of Lorain Secretary Mike Meszes, Secretary, DRC Construction Co. 2022 NCBIA Board of Directors Sam Hudspath, All Construction Services Dan Bennett, Bennett Builders & Remodelers Kevin Walker, Great Lakes Properties & Investments Dave Linna, Linna Homes & Remodeling Jason Rodriguez, Lorain County Joint Vocational School Mike Gidich, MDG Maintenance, LLC Brian Schwab, RestorePro, Inc. Dave Weisenberger, Tusing Builders & Roofing Services North Coast Building Industry Association (NCBIA) BUILDER newsletter is the official newsletter of the NCBIA and is published monthly by the NCBIA. The NCBIA is an affiliate of the Ohio Home Builders Association (OHBA) & the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). Advertising Policy - The North Coast Building Industry Association reserves the right to reject advertising in the Builder newsletter based on content. Acceptance of advertising does not imply endorsement of the product or service advertised. NCBIA Life Directors

our members

Sara

Home Technologies August 2022 www.ncbia.com page 3

our local industry in Washington

Kousma Insulation

Jeremy Caruso,

Inc. 2022 NAHB Delegates

Jack

OHBA Area 2

Caruso Cabinets

Chris

Tom

Bob Yost, H. Kousma,

Majzun

Mary(alternate)Felton, Guardian Title

Home Technologies OHBA Past Presidents Randy Strauss, 1996 2022 OHBA Trustees Randy Strauss, Strauss

Sr., Majzun

Jeff Hensley, Building Majzun Construction Co. S. Majzun Jr., Majzun Construction Co. Novotny, Construction Lahetta, Lahetta Builders,

and Columbus: Randy Strauss, Strauss

CALENDAR 2022 OF EVENTS Rev. 8/16/2022 Wednesday19 CAREERS IN CONSTRUCTIONGENERALMONTHMEMBERSHIP MEETING & ELECTION NIGHT Membership Event TBD Ahern’s Banquet Center, Avon Lake 24 Membership Event Amherst Twp. Park, Amherst Twp. 3:00 & 5:00 PM Wednesday9 Wednesday16 Thursday24 SPIKE APPRECIATION MONTHOHBA FALL BOARD State Event THANKSGIVING | OFFICE CLOSED EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE & BOARD MEETINGS Board Thursday15 Monday26 CHRISTMAS (OBSERVED) OFFICE CLOSED TBD UGLY SWEATER MIXER Social Event 4:30 - 6:30 PM Elected Officials ReceptionWednesday 25 Membership Event Parker’s Grill & Tavern, Avon Lake 3:00 & 5:00 PM Monday5 Wednesday14 LABOR DAY OFFICE CLOSED EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE & BOARD MEETINGS NATIONAL MEMBER APPRECIATION MONTH Board Saturday24 CLAMBAKE Social Event1:00TDB PM SOFTBALL GAME & FAMILY PICNICSaturday20 Social Event Amherst Eagles, Amherst Tuesday-Thursday25-27 NAHB Fall Leadership Meeting National Event TBD Kansas City, Mo. Columbus 5:00 - 7:00 PM Member MixerThursday ZZ’s Big Top, Avon 34 21 & OLDERONLYPLEASE SPONSORSHIP OPPORTUNITIES EVENT SPONSORS @ $699 RAFFLE BOARD SPONSORS @ $249 DESSERT SPONSOR @ $199 TABLE SPONSORS @ $99 YES, I WILL PROVIDE A BASKET FOR THE BASKET RAFFLE YES, I WILL DONATE A BOTTLE OF BOOZE FOR OUR BOOZE BASKET NOTE NCB A w l create a basket fo you for on y $ 00 Yes p ease bil me or this # CHICKEN CLAMBAKE DINNER # STEAK FRY CLAMBAKE DINNER # DOZEN CLAMS @ $12 PER DOZEN # TOTAL PEOPLE ATTENDING n c l u d e s : B r o t h C h o w d e r G r e d C h i c k e n B r e a s t R e d s k i n P o t a t o e s C o r n D o z e n C l a m s R o s & B u t t e r & D e s s e r t I n c u d e s : B r o t h C h o w d e r S t e a k R e d s k i n P o t a t o e s C o r n D o z e n C l a m s R o l l s & B u t t e r & D e s s e r t DINNER OPTIONS A m h e r s t E a g l e s 1 1 6 1 M i l a n A v e , A m h e r s t I c udes: 8 d e t ckets Recog tio at the e e t Recogn tion in BUILDER ne s etter List ng on placemat Table S gnage Banner you prov de to hang at the venue Inc udes: Your company name on each and every reverse raff e ticket sold from e her $5 or $ 0 board at he event Inc udes: L sting on event p acemat and signage on desser tab e Inc udes: L sting on event p acemat call office to pay by credit card or reg ster onl ne at www ncb a com S A T S E P T 2 4 2 0 2 2 5 : 3 0 1 0 : 0 0 TH N C B I A A N N U A L CLAMBAKECLAMBAKE Rev. 8.15.22 Reverse Raffle! Booze Basket Raffle! Basket Raffle! R A F F L E B O A R D S P O N S O R S E V E N T S P O N S O R S DESSERT SPONSORS TABLE SPONSORS Ema Comp e ed orms to ud e@ncb a com or Ma to 5077 Wa er ord Dr ve Su te 302 Shef e d Vi age OH 44035 Amy Vorndran ATTENDEE NAME(S) ATTENDEE NAME(S) COMPANY NAME 9 43

Table Contentsof 6 -Menu of Services 7 -Save the Dates 8-Executive Officer’s Report 9 - NCBIA Annual Clambake 11-15 - 2022 Annual Golf Outing Photo Gallery 16 - Thank You! - Auditors Meeting Event Sponsors and Photo Gallery 17-19 - 2022 Annual Softball Game Photo Gallery 20 - Eye on Housing: Single-Family Homes Started in 2021 22 - Eye on the Economy: Has Inflation Peaked? 23 - NAHB NOW: A Full-Court Press on Housing Affordability 24 - Eye on Housing: June Job Openings and Monetary Policy Considerations 25 - Eye on Housing: High Home Prices is the Main Reason Active Buyers Can't Seal the Deal 27 - Eye on the Housing: Housing Share of GDP Lower in the Second Quarter of 2022 29 Banks Report Unchanged Home Lending Standards 31 - More Prospective Buyers are Actively Searching for a Home 33 - NAHB NOW: International Builders Show-OHIO 34 2022 Calendar of Events 35 OHBA Executive VP Column 37 - NAHB NOW: Changes Made to Democrats' Flawed Inflation Reduction Act; Work Continues to Improve Bill 38 - NAHB NOW: Canadian Lumber Tariffs Cut by More Than Half 39 Thanks for Renewing! Sorry to See You Go! 40 - OHBA Benefits: It May Be Hard Now, But it Gets Better. Here's How... 41 Thank you, Spikes!! 43 - NAHB NOW: International Builders Show 2023 Countdown 44 NAHB Membership $avings 45 - Sedgwick Workers Compensation $avings!

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August 2022 www.ncbia.com page 7 Do you have some business news to share? Business anniversaries, accomplishments, awards, publications, etc.? Send to judie@ncbia.com. We want to hear from you! Save the Date! Want to be a sponsor for any of these events? Let us know! Sponsor early to get maximum exposure!!!!! Call or email Judie at judie@ncbia.com for marketing opportunities to help your bottom line!!!!! Thursday, August 25th Member Mixer 5-7 PM ZZ's Big Top 35015 Detroit Road Saturday, September 24th 5:30-9:30ClambakePM Amherst Eagles 1161 Milan Avenue, Amherst Wednesday, October 19th General Membership Meeting & Election 5:00-7:00Night Ahern's Banquet Center If726AvonBeldenRoad,AvonLakeyouwouldliketoparticipate in a committee, please email Judie Docs at judiencbia@gmail.com. Check the website at www.ncbia.com for up-to-date changes, additions, and corrections to these events!

• Control Chaos – Minimize Time and Maximize Energy

• Share experiences, learn best practices and discuss solutions to common challenges with other EOs

I am writing from Scottsdale, Arizona because I was fortunate to receive a NAHB scholarship to attend their Association Management Conference.

• Crafting Mutually Beneficial Volunteer Opportunities

• Closing Keynote – Quit Hitting Snooze and Take Action - How to recognize and address three things EO’s often “snooze on” and tips for addressing them head-on. How to have a greater awareness of what to prioritize for a more successful and less stressful year. Courtney Ramsey, MBA, Professional in Human Resources, Certified Training Professional with ATD, Leadership Development Consultant.

The NAHB Association Management Conference (AMC) is the premier professional development conference for HBA Executive Officers (EOs)/CEOs. At AMC, EOs gather to learn, share their experiences and network with peers to discuss challenges, crowdsource solutions and exchange best practices.

• Culture First Mindset-Creating an Atmosphere of Compassion, Connection and Clarity

• How to Create a Cult-Like Following for your Association

by Judie Docs, CSP, MCSP, MIRM, CMP, CGP

EXECUTIVE OFFICER’S REPORT

• Volunteer Leadership and Development

• Magic of Leadership – Steps to Take You Association to the Next Level

Stacey Hanke, Best Selling Author, Communications & Influence Strategist, Forbes and New York Times Contributor, Executive Coach and Leadership Expert shared the best practices on communication to influence others to take action.

Once again AMC was great, and I am excited to implement some of the things I learned. It was extremely hot here. Right now, as I am writing this (8/11 7:42 p.m.) it is 102 degrees. It is still in the high 80’s – lower 90’s during the night. It was not dry heat that everyone told me about because they had more rain the day before I got there than they had all last year, so it was humid. I found out that they had a monsoon the night before, so the humidity was high. There was another monsoon my first night, but I slept through it (:

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• Executive Officer Idea-A-Thon

• Create a network of Eos to connect with, learn from and discuss ideas throughout the year

• Learn the latest in advocacy, non-dues revenue generation, governance and more

THE NAHB ASSOCIATION Management Conference

• Actionable steps to build more efficient and effective associations for members

This year’s conference was amazing, offering 25+ sessions and the sessions I attended included:

• Ways to strengthen your membership through strategic recruitment and retention planning

AMC offers:

Opening keynote – Influence Redefined….in today’s virtual, in-person and hybrid world communication with influence is harder and more critical than it’s ever been.

• State of Affairs – included presentations by NAHB Senior Officers

21 OLDER&ONLYPLEASE SPONSORSHIP OPPORTUNITIES _____EVENT SPONSORS @ $699 _____RAFFLE BOARD SPONSORS @ $249 _____DESSERT SPONSOR @ $199 _____TABLE SPONSORS @ $99 _____YES, I WILL PROVIDE A BASKET FOR THE BASKET RAFFLE _____YES, I WILL DONATE A BOTTLE OF “BOOZE” FOR OUR BOOZE BASKET NOTE: NCBIA will create a basket for you for only $100 Yes, please bill me for thi s Amherst Eagles 1161 Milan Ave., Amherst Includes: 8 dinner tickets, Recognition at the event, Recognition in BUILDER newsletter, Listing on placemat, Table Signage, Banner (you provide) to hang at the venue Includes: Your company name on each and every reverse raffle ticket sold from either $5 or $10 board at the event Includes: Listing on event placemat and signage on dessert Includes:tableListing on e vent placemat call office to pay by credit card or register online at 5:30-10:00www.ncbia.comSATSEPT242022TH $50$50PERPERSONPERPERSON NCBIA ANNUAL CLAMBAKECLAMBAKE Rev. 8.15.22 #____ CHICKEN CLAMBAKE DINNER #____ STEAK FRY CLAMBAKE DINNER #____ DOZEN CLAMS @ $12 PER DOZEN #____ TOTAL PEOPLE ATTENDING Includes: Broth, Chowder, Grilled Chicken Breast, Redskin Potatoes, Corn, 1 Dozen Clams, Rolls & Butter, & Dessert Includes: Broth, Chowder, Steak, Redskin Potatoes, Corn, 1 Dozen Clams, Rolls & Butter, & Dessert DINNER OPTIONS Reverse Raffle! Booze Basket Raffle! Basket Raffle! RAFFLESPONSORSBOARDSPONSORSEVENT SPONSORSDESSERT SPONSORSTABLE Email Completed forms to judie@ncbia.com or Mail to 5077 Waterford Drive, Suite 302, Sheffield Village, OH 44035. Amy Vorndran COMPANY__________________________________ATTENDEENAME(S)ATTENDEENAME(S)NAME

© 2019 Hastings Mutual Insurance Company SS-1 (10/19) Select Contractors Building Your Business (800) www.hastingsmutual.com442-8277 404 E. Woodlawn Ave. Hastings, MI 49058 For more information contact:Broadened Coverage This coverage helps if there’s damage to property used by you or your employees that belongs to someone else. It has a limit of $2,500 per occurrence, with a $100 deductible. Builders Risk and Installation Floater “Floater” coverage is for anything that oats, or moves from place to place — like your supplies and machinery. It also covers damage to the structures you’re working on, including scaffolding, foundations, and more. This has a limit of $5,000, with a $250 deductible. Portable Tools Coverage on your tools has a limit of $1,000 per tool, to a maximum of $2,500. It also has a $500 deductible.Theinformation referred to is not a policy. Refer to your policy for speci c coverage. The Nelson Agency, Inc. 116 4th St., Elyria, OH 44035 Phone: 440-323-8002 Fax: Drywallersinsurance1@prodigy.net440-323-8055 A member of: Theresa Riddell (440) adamsb@sprouseagency.comtmycps@oh.rr.com420-1175-OR-BrettAdams(419)515-0506 page 10 www.ncbia.com August 2022

2022 Golf Classic PHOTO GALLERY August 2022 www.ncbia.com page 11

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G O L F C A R T S P O N S O R D R I V I N G R A N G E W A T E R Tammy Koleski Golf ClassicA N N U A L NCBIA 2022 P R E S E N T I N G S P O N S O R S S C O R E C A R D S P O N S O R B B Q S P O N S O R S S K I L L P R I Z E S P O N S O R S P H O T O S P O N S O R S K E G S P O N S O R S P I N K B A L L S P O N S O R S O F T D R I N K S P O N S O R S H O L E S P O N S O R S D O N A T I O N S C I G A R S L U N C H Special thanks to Bucky & Joanne Kopf and the Sweetbriar Golf Course staff for all their generous donations and efforts to make this golf outing GREAT!!

Annual Softball Game PHOTO GALLERY August 2022 www.ncbia.com page 17

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Shirt Sponsors Drink Sponsor Field Sponsor Dessert Sponsor THANK YOU to our Sponsors who help us make this event possible!! August 2022 www.ncbia.com page 19

Among all the nine Census divisions, the South Atlantic, West South Central and Mountain Divisions led the way with the most new singlefamily units started in 2021. These three divisions represent 20 states and Washington, D.C., approximately 41% of United States, while the number of new single-family housing starts in these three divisions accounted for more than two thirds of the total new single-family housing starts in 2021. In addition, single-family units started in the Pacific Division increased to 106,240 in 2021, exceeding 100,000 for the second straight year since the 2008 recession. There were 93,693 new single-family units started in the East North Central Division in 2021. While the Pacific Division accounted for 9% of the total new single-family housing starts, the East North Central Division accounted for 8%. The other four divisions, including East South Central, West North Central, Middle Atlantic and New England, accounted for the remaining 16% of the total new singlefamily housing starts.

A ccording to NAHB analysis of the Survey of Construction (SOC), new single-family starts expanded at a fast pace in 2021. Nationally, 1,133,145 new single-family units were started in 2021, 14% higher than the units started in 2020. It marked the fastest growth rate since 2013 and the highest count of starts since the Great Recession.

EYE ON HOUSING page 20 www.ncbia.com August 2022

BY: JING FU

SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES Started in 2021

The NAHB Freight Shipment Program offers exclusive access to low cost, customized inbound and outbound LTL rates for air, ground, international LTL, truckload, rail and intermodal freight services with world-class freight carriers. From a single shipment to your complete supply chain, our freight experts will find a way to make it happen. With decades of experience and an international network at their fingertips, your dedicated freight team will make the complex simple. Call: 1-800-MEMBERS (636-2377) | Visit: www.1800member.com/nahb M-F, 8 a.m.- 5 p.m. ET To start savings, simply: Tailored Solutions for Your Shipping Needs. NAHB members can save at least 75% on less-than-truckload (LTL) shipments over 150 lbs.

Indeed, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey data of open, unfilled jobs show a net slowdown in hiring intentions by employers as the number of open jobs has declined for three straight months, falling to 10.7 million open jobs in June. This is still a greatly elevated reading due to the ongoing labor shortage, but the recent trends show a pivot for the labor market that will be reflected in the monthly jobs reports later this year.

Overall, combining the two quarters of GDP declines with the ongoing housing downturn for sales, permits, starts and home builder sentiment, the evidence now exists that the economy experienced at the very least a downturn during the first half of the year, with a reasonable basis to call it a recession. Weak housing and economic data will continue in the coming months given tightening of financial conditions; however, some stabilization lies ahead as inflation appears to be at an inflection point and bond markets are signaling a deceleration of interest rate increases for long-term instruments like mortgages. As a result, the probability of a hard landing for the economy has slightly declined in recent weeks.

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BY: ROBERT DIETZ

M arkets received good news — or at least better than-expected news — with Wednesday’s consumer inflation report: The Consumer Price Index was up “only” 8.5% in July compared to a year ago. Nonetheless, this was lower than the 9% gain estimated in June and less than consensus forecast expectations. Combined with clear evidence of a February peak for the core Personal Consumption Expenditures measure of inflation (the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge), the data appear to show that slowing economic conditions produced by tighter monetary policy from the Fed is lowering the rate of inflation growth. The July inflation data does not mean prices are falling or will even stop increasing. But the rate of increase is slowing, and this trend is what the Fed wants to see. Consequently, the Fed is likely to increase the federal funds rate by less than 75 basis points at its September meeting. Bond markets liked the July inflation report as well, with the 10-year Treasury rate now at 2.8%, below the nearly 3.5% peak in mid-June. This leaves open the question of whether a recession is underway in the United States. GDP data indicate the answer is yes. After posting a -1.6% growth rate in a disappointing first quarter of 2022, GDP registered another quarterly decline (-0.9%) during the spring, triggering the rule-of-thumb definition of a recession of two consecutive quarters of decline. However, the biggest missing ingredient, according to how recessions are officially defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research, is a weak labor market. In fact, for July, employment expanded by 528,000 jobs and the unemployment rate was a very low 3.5%. However, these positive data are the result of a separate, ongoing, post-pandemic recovery in the service sector that is masking job losses due to GDP declines for the first half of 2020. Thus, the traditional readings of the labor market may create a disconnect between what appeared to be a recession for the first half of this year, and ultimately weakness in the job market that will materialize in late 2022 and early 2023.

HAS INFLATION Peaked? EYE ON THE ECONOMY

A FULL-COURT PRESS ON Housing Affordability

Meanwhile, Konter followed up his congressional testimony with an opinion piece in MarketWatch outlining solutions that are needed to enable builders to construct muchneeded entry-level housing. The title of the opinion piece told the story: "I’ve been building homes for 40 years, and here’s what has to change if the U.S. wants more starter homes: Tackle lumber prices, alter tax breaks and cut regulation."

August 2022 www.ncbia.com page 23 NAHB NOW

With NAHB's strong backing, Sens. John Thune (R-S.D.) and Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) called on the Biden administration to act on lumber tariffs and Rep. Norma Torres (D-Calif.) spoke on the House floor regarding the urgent need to resolve America’s housing affordability challenges and to call on the administration to prioritize lumber and building material prices.

N AHB continues to work tirelessly to enact solutions to the growing housing affordability crisis and to keep housing front and center among policymakers and the media. On July 20, NAHB Chairman Jerry Konter testified before Congress and urged lawmakers to act on the housing crisis.

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Looking forward, attracting skilled labor will remain a key objective for construction firms in the coming years. However, while a slowing housing market will take some pressure off tight labor markets, the longterm labor challenge will persist beyond an ongoing macro slowdown.

JUNE JOB OPENINGS AND

Since that time however, the sector layoff rate has been below 3%, with the exception of February 2021 due to weather effects. The number of quits in construction in June (179,000) was effectively flat relative to the measure a year ago (177,000).

EYE ON HOUSING

As forecasted over the last two months, the count of open construction jobs is now falling, declining from 405,000 in May to 334,000 in June. The construction job openings rate ticked down to 4.2% in June, after reaching a data series high of 5.5% in April.

Monetary Policy Considerations

The housing market remains underbuilt and requires additional labor, lots and lumber and building materials to add inventory. However, the market is slowing due to higher interest rates, yielding a slowing of the count of unfilled positions in the sector. Hiring in the construction sector dipped to a 4.5% rate in June. The post-virus peak rate of hiring occurred in May 2020 (10.4%) as a rebound took hold in home building and Despiteremodeling.slowing of building activity, construction sector layoffs remained low at a 1.7% rate in June. In April 2020, the layoff rate was 10.8%.

T he construction labor market is cooling off as economic activity slows in response to tighter monetary policy per the latest job openings data. Given the Fed’s dual mandate of fighting inflation and maintaining maximum employment, macro price and jobs data are key to informing the Fed’s future policy moves. Inflation remains near a 40-year high and payroll employment growth is seemingly hot. According to BLS July estimates, payroll employment grew by 528,000 positions. However, the jobs numbers continued to be influenced by a post-covid service sector rebound. Consequently, the Fed needs to be watching the open jobs data to see if the labor market is slowing. And the overall numbers are consistent with a slowing employment market. The count of open jobs for the overall economy fell from 11.3 million to 10.7 million in June. This marks the third consecutive monthly decline after the job openings total reached an all-time high of 11.9 million in March. As this total declines in future months, it will weaken a source of inflation pressure as tighter monetary policy slows the economy. In fact, it can be argued that the job openings total is more important for monetary policy than the monthly jobs total as employers slow recruiting during the second half of 2022. And as job openings slow, it will provide data support for the Fed to slow tightening of monetary policy.

BY: ROBERT DIETZ

BY: ROSE QUINT ON

All data are derived from national polls of representative samples of American adults conducted for NAHB by Morning Consult. Results are seasonally adjusted. A description of the poll’s methodology and sample characteristics can be found here. This is the final post in a series of six highlighting results for the 2nd quarter of 2022.

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Meanwhile, the share who plan to give up their home search until next year or later was unchanged at 25% between the first and second quarters of 2022. This share has increased or remained flat in each of the past four quarters.

**Results come from the Housing Trends Report (HTR) – a research product created by the NAHB Economics team with the goal of measuring prospective home buyers’ perceptions about the availability and affordability of homes for-sale in their markets. The HTR is produced quarterly to track changes in buyers’ perceptions over time.

HIGH HOME PRICES IS THE MAIN REASON Active Buyers Can't Seal the Deal

EYE

A

n earlier post revealed that 63% of buyers who were actively engaged in the process of finding a home in the 2nd quarter of 2022 have spent 3+ months searching for a home without success. The most common reason these long-term searchers cite for not having bought by now is their inability to find an affordable home (43%). In second place is getting outbid by other buyers (35%), followed by the inability to find a home in a desirable neighborhood (32%), or a home with desirable features (29%).

HOUSING

When asked what they are most likely to do next if still unable to find a home in the next few months, 46% of active buyers searching for 3+ months said they will continue looking for the ‘right’ home in the same location (down from 52% a quarter earlier); 38% will expand their search area (unchanged), 30% will accept a smaller/older home (up from 20%), and 26% will buy a more expensive home (up from 19%)

ousing's share of the economy edged lower at the end of the first half of 2022. For the second quarter of 2022, overall GDP declined at a 0.9% annual rate, following a 1.6% decrease in the first quarter.

For the second quarter, RFI was 4.7% of the economy, recording a $1.2 trillion seasonally adjusted annual pace. The second impact of housing on GDP is the measure of housing services, which includes gross rents (including utilities) paid by renters, and owners’ imputed rent (an estimate of how much it would cost to rent owner-occupied units) and utility payments. The inclusion of owners’ imputed rent is necessary from a national income accounting approach, because without this measure, increases in homeownership would result in declines for GDP.

For the second quarter, housing services represented 11.9% of the economy or $3.0 trillion on seasonally adjusted annual basis.

Housing’s share of GDP decreased to 16.6%, slightly below the first quarter share of 16.7%.

In the second quarter, the more cyclical home building and remodeling component – residential fixed investment (RFI) – decreased to 4.7% of GDP. Home construction will face growing challenges as higher interest rates due to tightening monetary policy increase housing affordability challenges. RFI subtracted 71 basis points from the headline GDP growth rate in the second quarter of 2022.

SHARE

Taken together, housing’s share of GDP was 16.6% for the quarter. Historically, RFI has averaged roughly 5% of GDP while housing services have averaged between 12% and 13%, for a combined 17% to 18% of GDP. These shares tend to vary over the business cycle. However, the housing share of GDP lagged during the post-Great Recession period due to underbuilding, particularly for the single-family sector. The recent expansion in housing activity has increased these shares to near historic norms.

of 2022 EYE ON HOUSING BY: DANUSHKA NANAYAKKARA-SKILLINGTON August 2022 www.ncbia.com page 27

Housing-related activities contribute to GDP in two basic ways.

H

HOUSING OF GDP LOWER in the Second Quarter

The first is through residential fixed investment (RFI). RFI is effectively the measure of the home building, multifamily development, and remodeling contributions to GDP. It includes construction of new singlefamily and multifamily structures, residential remodeling, production of manufactured homes and brokers’ fees.

Do you want to opt-in to our referral program? Just email judie@ncbia.com $ 7 . 0 0 / e a c o n t a c t j u d i e @ n c b i a . c o m t o o r d e r Y o u r N e w H o m e a n d H o w t o T a k e C a r e o f I t h a s a n i n v i t i n g n e w l o o k a n d c o n t i n u e s t o b e a p e r f e c t c u s t o m e r h a n d o u t a t c l o s i n g R e m e m b e r : c u s t o m e r c a r e i s t h e k e y t o a b u i l d e r ’ s w a r r a n t y p r o g r a m . page 28 www.ncbia.com August 2022

n the second quarter iteration of the Federal Reserve Board’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) on Bank Lending Practices, banks reported largely unchanged lending standards across all residential real estate (RRE) loans. Major net shares of banks reported weaker demand for most RRE loans except for home equity lines of credit, for which a significant net share of banks reported stronger demand. The second quarter also saw tighter credit standards for Commercial Real Estate (CRE) loans and Commercial and Industrial (C&I) loans. The below figure derived from the SLOOS shows that RRE credit standards relative to the first quarter of 2022, tightened by no more than 5.6 percent, except for subprime mortgages for which banks tightened standards by 12.5 percent. Government-issued mortgages, such as FHA and VA loans, were the only category of RRE loans that showed a loosening of credit standards, that too, by a negligible amount of -1.9 percent.

I

Although major net shares of most banks reported weaker demand for RRE loans, a small fraction of banks reported moderately to substantially stronger demand across all loan categories except subprime residential mortgages. For loans extended to homeowners based on their homes’ market values, a positive net share of 41.1 percent of banks surveyed reported moderately stronger demand for home equity lines of credit and 5.4 percent of banks reported substantially stronger demand. Meanwhile, banks reported tighter lending standards for all Commercial Real Estate (CRE) loan categories and weaker demand in construction and land development loans and nonfarm nonresidential loans. A modest net share of banks, 6.1 percent, reported stronger demand for loans secured by multifamily residential properties. In Q1 2022, multifamily loans’ demand, on net, was 18.5 percent stronger. In the following quarter’s survey, 4.5 percent of banks reported substantially stronger demand, 18.2 percent indicated moderately stronger, and 60.6 percent of banks reported unchanged demand. The questions were subdivided between large commercial banks and other commercial banks.

In SLOOS’s last category, Commercial and Industrial (C&I) loans, banks reported a tightening of lending standards across all firm sizes, citing unfavorable economic conditions for the tightening. Thirty-three percent of banks reported moderately stronger demand for C&I loans made to large and middle-market firms while 29 percent of banks reported moderately stronger demand for loans made to small firms. Interestingly, the survey asks banks to use only funds disbursed to measure C&I loan demand.

BY: LITIC MURALI

EYE ON HOUSING

August 2022 www.ncbia.com page 29

BANKS REPORT UNCHANGED Home Lending Standards

page 30 www.ncbia.com August 2022

T

**Results come from the Housing Trends Report (HTR) – a research product created by the NAHB Economics team with the goal of mea suring prospective home buyers’ perceptions about the availability and affordability of homes for-sale in their markets. The HTR is produced quarterly to track changes in buyers’ perceptions over time. All data are derived from national polls of representative samples of American adults conducted for NAHB by Morning Consult. Results are seasonally adjusted. A description of the poll’s methodology and sample characteristics can be found here . This is the fifth in a series of six posts highlighting resu lts for the 2nd quarter of 2022.

EYE ON HOUSING

August 2022 www.ncbia.com page 31

he share of prospective home buyers who are actively engaged in the process to buy a home rose to 49% in the second quarter of 2022, after declining for three straight quarters. The pivot is likely driven by less competition from buyers who have exited the market, which has encouraged many of those remaining to become active buyers. Except for the South, the share of prospective buyers actively searching for a home rose in every region between the first and second quarters of 2022: Northeast (50% to 54%), Midwest (40% to 51%), and West (46% to 57%).

MORE PROSPECTIVE BUYERS ARE Actively Searching for a Home

BY: ROSE QUINT

In the second quarter of 2022, the share of active buyers who have been looking for a home for 3+ months fell to 63%, down from 67% in the previous quarter. The share is at its lowest point in almost two years (since the third quarter of 2020, when it was 62%). Before the pandemic (between the first quarters of 2018 and 2020), fewer than 60% of active buyers shopped for a home for 3+ months.

page 32 www.ncbia.com August 2022 Warranty book Updated and Available FOR ONLY $30 EACH! In a binder so you can include other walkthrough documents, warranties, etc. NEW HOME BUYERS LIMITED WARRANTY BOOKS NOW AVAILABLE Email your order to judie@ncbia.com NPPMembers,isamember benefit provider of the North Coast Building Industry Association. Through our partnership with NPP, eligible members can save 22% OFF Verizon monthly access fees* and up to 35% OFF cool accessories. Just visit https://mynpp.com/association/north-coast-bia to sign up with NPP for free. Once you enroll your business and activate the Verizon business discount, there is a similar offer for your employees. Employees can save up to 18% OFF Verizon monthly access fees and up to 25% OFF select accessories. NPP has a catalog of business offers and deals for businesses and employees. Membership is free and there is no obligation to purchase. Restrictions may apply. *Unlimited plans are not eligible for corporate and employee line discounts. All Verizon Wireless offers are for a limited time only and are subject to equipment availability. Verizon Wireless reserves the right to change or modify all offers at any time without notice. All terms and conditions are subject to and governed by Verizon Wireless' Agreement with Customer, including, but not limited to, Customer eligibility requirements. Every effort is made to ensure the accuracy of the Verizon Wireless offers, however, Verizon Wireless is not responsible for any errors or omissions. Restrictions may apply. Visit mynpp.com for details New Home Buyers Limited Warranty and Standards Manual Caring for Your New Home Presented by:

- We have been very fortunate to be able to get Resorts World as an Ohio hotel. This property is less than 2 years old and is a part of the Hilton Hotels. This property has underground transportation to the LVCC. Starting at Resorts World you can get off at the West Hall, Central Hall and finally at the South Hall. The Resorts World connection has just been completed in the last month or so. These connections are using Teslas for the connections. Obviously, the NAHB bus transportation will still be available. There will be a modest charge for the underground while the bus transportation is free with your Expo Badge. Register right away starting September 1ST for the free Expo Pass and make sure to get your hotel at that time as these 2 hotels will sell out quickly.

NAHB NOW

August 2022 www.ncbia.com page 33

OHIO

CALENDAR 2022 OF EVENTS Rev. 8/16/2022 Wednesday19 CAREERS IN CONSTRUCTIONGENERALMONTHMEMBERSHIP MEETING & ELECTION NIGHT Membership Event Ahern’s Banquet Center, Avon Lake 24 Membership Event Amherst Twp. Park, Amherst Twp. 3:00 & 5:00 PM Wednesday9 Wednesday16 Thursday24 SPIKE APPRECIATION MONTHOHBA FALL BOARD State Event THANKSGIVING | OFFICE CLOSED EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE & BOARD MEETINGS Board Thursday15 Monday26 CHRISTMAS (OBSERVED) OFFICE CLOSED TBD UGLY SWEATER MIXER Social Event 4:30 - 6:30 PM Elected Officials ReceptionWednesday 25 Membership Event Parker’s Grill & Tavern, Avon Lake 3:00 & 5:00 PM Monday5 Wednesday14 LABOR DAY | OFFICE CLOSED EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE & BOARD MEETINGS NATIONAL MEMBER APPRECIATION MONTH Board Saturday24 CLAMBAKE Social Event1:00TDB PM SOFTBALL GAME & FAMILY PICNICSaturday20 Social Event Amherst Eagles, Amherst 5:00-7:00 PM 25-27 Tuesday-Thursday NAHB Fall Leadership Meeting National Event TBD Kansas City, Mo. Columbus 5:00 - 7:00 PM Member MixerThursday ZZ’s Big Top, Avon

That’s the best I can put it. While state government keeps us busy at OHBA, we must keep an eye on the events at the US Capitol. Aside from January 6 hearings with possible criminal indictments and a Roe vs Wade groundswell; an expected political sweep may be in question. Just learned the democrats in the Senate got the needed vote to put a major climate change and tax increase over the top. House concurrence and presidential approval is expected.Stateevents

PS- a late reading of the recent climate control bill in congress may impact energy codes.

ALWAYS SOMETHING HAPPENING

OHBA EXECUTIVE VP COLUMN

August 2022 www.ncbia.com page 35

by Vincent J. Squillace, CAE, OHBA Exec. VP

have all eyes on the Ohio Supreme Court caused special election in early august. Four of the justices just plain would not agree with the appointed apportionment panel proposed maps; four of them and threw a monkey wrench into the process causing the late primary. A historic low voter turnout is expected and with a number of contested primaries on the ballot, some unexpected results are expected. After the November General Elections all new districts must be drawn. The penultimate arbiter of those districts will be a new Ohio Supreme Court. Here we continue to advocate for any and all measures to assure an adequate stock of affordable housing is built. Most headwinds come from the environmental community and rigid local government regulations. Also, in our many discussions with state legislators it is clear they just do not understand the land development process and how it impacts the final price of a new house. As elementary as it sounds, it is surprising how so many just do not understand how land development regulations find their way to the final price of a home. Given all this it merely underscores the need to keep legislators and regulators informed. That is what the HBA association effort is all about.

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CHANGES MADE TO DEMOCRATS' FLAWED

However, the bill includes structural changes to the Section 45L new energy efficient home tax credit, which provides builders a $2,000 tax credit on homes by meeting specific energy savings on homes built above the baseline IECC, that would effectively render the tax credit null and void for most builders.

s the Senate rushes forward to pass the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, NAHB remains opposed to the bill even as we were able to work with Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) to obtain key changes as it related to carried interest and how companies can deduct depreciated assets from taxes.

NAHB continues to push for a better strategy — where the Department of Energy takes the lead to help states advance the codes in a manner that best fits the needs of state and local governments.

Further, NAHB fought successfully to defeat a measure that would have extended the 3.8% Net Investment Income Tax (NIIT) to active investors, including NAHB members. The NIIT applies to capital gains and rental income, among other investment streams, and would have directly increased the cost of housing.

On the codes front, the legislation contains $1 billion in grants for paying state and local governments to adopt more stringent energy code regulations. The practical effect will be to raise housing costs even further while doing very little to provide meaningful savings for residential homes and apartments. Two-thirds of the funds, or $670 million, will be made available for the adoption of energy regulations for residential and commercial buildings that meet the zero energy provisions in the 2021 edition of the International Energy Conservation Code (IECC). These zero-energy targets are not appropriate for most jurisdictions and not cost-effective for consumers.

August 2022 www.ncbia.com page 37

A Victory on Carried Interest

Changing the rules to make ENERGY STAR the sole means to qualify for the 45L tax credit is counterproductive because it is a niche market that will never be widely adopted — less than 10% of single-family and multifamily units were certified in 2020.

The Inflation Reduction Act is expected to pass both chambers of Congress before mid-August because Senate Democrats are determined to fast-track the legislation through what is known as “reconciliation.” This is an expedited process that allows the bill to pass the Senate with just 50 votes and without any Republican support.

Inflation Reduction Act; Work Continues to Improve Bill A

During the week of Aug. 1, NAHB Chairman Jerry Konter issued a strong rebuke of the bill because it contained several changes to the taxation of real estate and new building and energy code requirements that will raise the cost of housing. Konter urged Senate Democrats to rework the bill by eliminating these onerous provisions, and NAHB also sent a letter to Senate leaders that went into more detail expressing our opposition to the bill. And although the bill does include positive provisions for housing, NAHB believes that overall the bad outweighs the good, despite the 11th hour changes to the legislation that NAHB helped to push through.

NAHB NOW

New Codes Requirements

In the tax arena, NAHB strongly supported the efforts of Sen. Sinema to kill an onerous provision on carried interest that would have affected existing real estate partnership agreements and the treatment of Section 1231 gains at a time when housing has entered an industry recession.

On the positive side, the legislation includes long-term extensions for many other existing energy tax incentives, and $4.3 billion for the HOMES Rebate Program, an energy-efficient retrofit program.

“These duties have caused unjustified harm to the Canadian industry and its workers,” Ng added. “They also amount to a tax on U.S. consumers, exacerbating housing unaffordability at a time of increased supply challenges and inflationary pressures.”

AHB's tireless efforts calling on the Biden administration to eliminate — or at the very least reduce — duties on Canadian lumber shipments into the United States has taken a step in the right direction, with the Department of Commerce moving to cut tariffs by more than half and Canada seeking a new legal solution that would completely eliminate the tariffs.

Although lower tariffs could help to ease extreme price swings in the lumber market that have added $14,300 to the price of a typical new home since the early stages of the pandemic in the spring of 2020, the fact remains that the Commerce action does not adequately address the issues surrounding Canadian lumber — that all parties must come to the table to negotiate a long-term solution that puts an end to the tariffs.

Ng said that Canada intends to challenge the final results of the third administrative reviews, including through launching a dispute settlement process under Chapter 10 of the USMCA.

USMCA NAHB NOW page 38 www.ncbia.com August 2022

The new 8.59% lumber tariff is expected to take effect later this month.

Cut by More Than Half

That is the message that NAHB continues to send to the Biden administration. At the same time, NAHB supports Canada’s efforts to address legal issues surrounding these unfair tariffs. Canada reacted to the news out of the Commerce Department by requesting a dispute settlement through the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement (USMCA).

CANADIAN LUMBER TARIFFS

The Department of Commerce has issued its final third administrative review to reduce duties on shipments of Canadian lumber into the United States by more than half from 17.99% to 8.59%. This is even lower than the initial third administrative review that would have set the tariffs at 11.64%.

N

“Canada is disappointed that the United States continues to impose unwarranted and unfair duties on Canadian softwood lumber,” said International Trade Minister Mary Ng. “While the duty rates will decrease from the current levels for the majority of exporters, the only truly fair outcome would be for the United States to cease applying baseless duties to Canadian softwood lumber.”

Thanks for Renewing! Victoria Caruso-Myers, Caruso Cabinets Melanie Stock, First Federal Savings of Lorain Tim Conrad, Graves Lumber Jon Hammer, Infinity from Marvin Joe Hart, North Coast Integrated Technologies Kim Luccioni, North Star Builders Bryan Lazor, WCCV Flooring, LLC Sorry to See You Go! Don Holztrager, Holztrager Homes Kelly Kreischer, K. Hovnanian Homes Tim Slager, Slager Painting August 2022 www.ncbia.com page 39

OHBA BENEFITS

That’s why I’m here to remind you of an amazing resource from Small Business Growth Partners that’s available to you by being part of our SBGPHBA. offers a complimentary Business Diagnostic and Plan of Action (BPA) to help homebuilders, remodelers, and plumbers just like you grow and scale their business. You can:

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And let me tell you, the value of these assessments is unmatched.

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Rooting for you,

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Thanks to our partnership, a BPA analysis comes at no cost to you. Where else can you get access to the industry’s finest business coaches for $0?

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It can be stressful owning a construction company right now, especially with a possible recession on the way.

But despite how overwhelming it can be, I want you to remember something very important.

When it comes to business, there’s no shortage of strategy. You can pivot at any time and go from struggling to stay afloat to running a thriving business—even when the rest of the world is panicking.

There are no strings attached and you've got nothing to lose.

IT MAY BE HARD NOW, But it Gets Better. Here's How.

•Attachments:

• FAQ's • BPA Redemption Steps - Clickable page 40 www.ncbia.com August 2022

All you need is someone to show you exactly how to do it.

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page 42 www.ncbia.com August 2022

IBS 2023 Countdown: Registration Opens September 1st! Mark your Calendar or set an alarm on your phone. Stay tuned for the best deals and biggest discounts on IBS Registration that only happen in September. NAHB International Builders' Show® January 31 - February 2 | Las Vegas | #IBS2023 NAHB NOW August 2022 www.ncbia.com page 43

page 44

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ODP At Previously Office Depot®, ODP Business Solutions™ is here to help you work better. Best of all? NAHB members save more when shopping online. Here's a 10% off coupon to use on your next online purchase. See coupon for details. Expires 09/24/2022.

you

you

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Click on the link and fill out the form

OHBA’S workers' compensation group program TO: OHBA Members Ohio Home Builders Association

If you have any questions, please feel

Important

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Now is

Temporary Authorization to Review Information form (AC-3). This Ohio Bureau of Workers’ Compensation (BWC) form allows us to evaluate prospective members for placement in OHBA’s group program. the AC-3 form completion from prospective members, Sedgwick has created an online form: OHBA’s link is: www.sedgwick.com/ac3/ohiohomebuilders to find out what can save! free to contact Robert Nicoll at 330.418.1824 or via email at robert. nicoll@sedgwick.com. notice Sedgwick is moving into the building next door to our current location effective August 8, 2022. To ensure receive mail recommend sending mail to our post office box. That address is PO Box 884, Dublin, Ohio 43017. If are using a courier (UPS, FedEx) and require a physical address, please Dublin, Ohio 43016.

Sedgwick is honored to be OHBA’s workers’ compensation program administrator. the time to get a free quote and save on your workers’ comp premium. Sedgwick needs to file a BWC

August 2022 www.ncbia.com page 45

use 5555 Glendon Court,

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CUSTOMER NAME Earn Speedy Rewards on eligible purchases at Speedway. Special Association Discount for the North Coast Building Industry Association SuperFleet Mastercard® Association Fueling Program A fuel card program designed with associations in mind. Call Holden Moll at 1-760-918-5933 or email holden.moll@fleetcor.com to start earning your association savings! Be sure to reference the North Coast Building Industry Association for your special 25¢ discount. EARN AN ADDITIONAL 25¢ PER GALLON!† • Save 5¢ per gallon at Speedway locations* • Over 3,400 fueling locations in the U.S. • Over 175,000 locations nationwide that accept Mastercard cards** • Custom card controls and increased security • Online reporting and account management †Limited time offer valid for new Speedway SuperFleet Mastercard applications received from 3/7/2022 through 12/31/2022. New approved accounts will earn 25 cents per gallon rebate on Speedway fuel purchases in the first three months after account setup. Rebates are cents per gallon based on the number of gallons purchased at Speedway locations per calendar month. The maximum promotional rebate in any one-month period, regardless of billing terms, is $500. Rebates are subject to forfeiture if account is not in good standing. *Rebates are cents per gallon based on the number of gallons purchased at Speedway locations per calendar month. Rebates will be reflected on your billing statement in the form of a statement credit. Not valid on aviation, bulk fuel, propane or natural gas purchases. Rebates are subject to forfeiture if account is not in good standing. Program pricing is subject to change any time beginning 12 months after sign-up. **Please see Client Agreement – at www.fleetcor.com/terms/superfleet-mc – for rate, fee and other cost and payment information. Fuel purchases at locations other than Speedway locations are subject to an out-of-network transaction fee. The SuperFleet Mastercard® is issued by Regions Bank, pursuant to a license by Mastercard International Incorporated. Mastercard is a registered trademark, and the circles design is a trademark of Mastercard International Incorporated. © 2022 FLEETCOR, P.O. Box 1239, Covington, LA, 70434.

If any current member refers another business, that member will receive a $50.00 credit to their billing statement once the new business they referred begins to fuel at Speedway. PLEASE NOTE TO BE ELIGABLE ALL APPLICANTS MUST GO THROUGH YOUR ASSOCATION REP FOR SPEEDWAY HOLDEN MOLL. JUST HAVE YOUR NEW MEMBER TELL HOLDEN WHO RECOMMENDED THEM. Holden F Moll Site Management 1902faxc.o.760.918.5933Team442.291.9833760.918.5932WrightPlSte.200Carlsbad,CA92008 Holden.moll@fleetcor.com

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