North Coast Building Industry Association (NCBIA) BUILDER newsletter is the official newsletter of the NCBIA and is published monthly by the NCBIA. The NCBIA is an affiliate of the Ohio Home Builders Association (OHBA) & the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB).
Advertising Policy - The North Coast Building Industry Association reserves the right to reject advertising in the Builder newsletter based on content. Acceptance of advertising does not imply endorsement of the product or service advertised.
Melanie Stock, First Federal Savings of Lorain Treasurer
Sara Majzun, Majzun Construction Company
Secretary
Jon Sherer, Ascent Custom Homes and Remodeling
Immediate Past President
Tim King, K. Hovnanian Homes
2025 NCBIA Board of Directors
Sam Hudspath, All Construction Services
Joey McCormick, Bumble Bee Blinds
Shannon Niebes, Royalty Roofing
Jason Rodriguez, The S.J.R. Building Co.
Theresa Riddell, The Nelson Agency
Kevin Walker, Walker Wealth Managements
NCBIA Life Directors
Jeremy Vorndran, 84 Lumber
Tom Caruso, Caruso Cabinets
Bob Yost, Dale Yost Construction
Liz Schneider Dollar Bank
Mary H. Felton, Guardian Title
Jack Kousma, Kousma Insulation
Jeff Hensley, Lake Star Building & Remodeling
Dave Linna, Linna Homes & Remodeling
Chris Majzun Jr., Majzun Construction Co.
Chris Majzun Sr., Majzun Construction Co.
Jim Sprague, Maloney + Novotny, LLC
Randy Strauss, Strauss Construction
Tom Lahetta, Tom Lahetta Builders, Inc.
2025 NAHB Delegate
This member represents our local industry in Washington DC
Jason Scott, Greyhawk Development
John Toth, Floor Coverings International (Alternate)
NAHB Senior Life Delegate
Randy Strauss, Strauss Construction
Ohio’s State Rep. to NAHB
Randy Strauss, Strauss Construction
OHBA 2025 President
Merle Stuzman, Weaver Custom Homes
OHBA Past President
Randy Strauss, 1996
2025 OHBA Trustees
Jason Scott, Greyhawk Development
John Toth, Floor Coverings International
Mary H. Felton, Guardian Title (Alternate)
Jason Rodriguez, The S.J.R. Building Co. (Alternate)
OHBA Area 2 Vice-President
Ric Johnson, CAPS Builder & Right at Home Technologies
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NCBIA
- Eye on Housing: Inflation Eased Ahead of Tariffs
2025 NCBIA Home and Remodeling Show Thank You Sponsors! And Photo Gallery!
Welcome New Members! Applying for Membership! Thanks for Renewing! Sorry to See you Go!
Night at the Races Flyer! 48 - Eye on Housing: Gains for Custom Home Building
Eye on the Economy: Policy Uncertainty a Rising Risk Factor
Thank you Spikes!
- Eye on Housing: Softwood Lumber Prices Continue to Lead Price Growth for Building Materials 51 - Eye on Housing: HBGI Q4 2024: Single-Family Construction Ends Year with Growth 54Eye on the Economy: Fed Remains in Wait and See Mode
What people are saying:
“Thank You for the opportunity to take part in the show. It was great to get my name and service out there. We got A LOT of leads and potential customers and a couple customers”
Copies Training Room
“Great show this year. We had as many contact leads the first day (1/2 way through the first day) as we had the entire show last year and several scheduled not just leads.”
$35 per hour
Contact Ashlyn Bellan-Caskey at ashlynncbia@gmail.com
$50 each (plus shipping, if applicable)
$10 each (plus shipping, if applicable) Your New Home Blueprint/Drawing
For more information on any of these products & services, please contact the NCBIA Office at (440) 934-1090 or email judie@ncbia.com
“I’ve gotten a few good leads at the show. If we walk away with a few good leads from this or any show, it’s worth the time and cost to be a participant. Not everyone is going to want or necessarily need our services right now (from this show), but at least our name is out there, and they can contact us when they do need us.”
Design Services Warranty Books
$50 each (plus shipping, if applicable)
$35 per hour
Contact Ashlyn Bellan-Caskey at ashlynncbia@gmail.com
“I heard about the show on K96 this morning while I was out and thought, Hey, I think I’ll go over and check it out!”
$10 each (plus shipping, if applicable) Your New Home
“Thank you for telling us about the show. We have a few projects we’re going to be doing this year, and the exhibitors you had were very helpful.”
*Subject to change 6/10/24 *Subject to change 6/10/24
“We love this show. We had two projects done last year from vendors we found at the show. We come every year.”
“We received more leads on the first day of this year’s show, than the entire show last year. I think the venue helped a lot.”
“Glad to see the show move to LCCC.”
Save the Date!
Want to be a sponsor for any of these events? Let us know! Sponsor early to get maximum exposure!
Call or email Judie at judie@ncbia.com for marketing opportunities to help your bottom line!
Saturday, April 26, 2025
Night at the Races
5:30-11 PM
American Legion Post 211 31972 Walker Road, Avon Lake
Wednesday, May 7, 2025
Builder's Forum Codes Update with Ric Johnson Residential Construction Advisory Committee Ohio Board of Building Standards 4-5 PM
General Membership Meeting/Circle of Excellence Awards
5-7:30 PM
Tom's Country Place 3442 Stoney Ridge Road, Avon
Monday, May 19, 2025
Learn Your WHY and Make More Impact Workshop - FREE Facilitated by:
Maria Leali of ActionCOACH
Certified WHY.os Coach More Info To Come 11AM - 12:30 PM
NCBIA Office
5321 Meadow Lane Court - B, Suite #23 Sheffield Village, OH
Check the website at www.ncbia.com for up-to-date changes, additions, and corrections to these events!
This Builder Newsletter is sponsored by
Do you have some business news to share?
Business anniversaries, accomplishments, awards, publications, etc.? Send to judie@ncbia.com. We want to hear from you!
What people are saying:
“ “
“This is our first time coming to your show. The Kid’s Corner is so great for the kids to teach them about building. And it’s so nice they can actually build on their own and take the fun project with them.”
“ “
“We had a fantastic experience at the Home Show. As a new business, shows can be tough to gauge, and this is 1 we will do moving forward every year. We had a ton of traffic and booked several new appointments. Highly recommend this show to any business. “
WHAT YOUR NCBIA Membership Means to YOU!
For over 80 years the NCBIA has been making the dream of home ownership a reality in Lorain, Huron, and Erie Counties. During that time a lot has changed, and the association has evolved. This is always true of groups like ours, evolution is a necessary part of ongoing success. The key component for members of the association is value. The NCBIA must continue to bring value to its members and also the communities that we serve. This month I want to start to review the value propositions that we are hopefully delivering to our members from my perspective.
Advocacy for the Building Industry: As a member of the NCBIA you are also a member of the national and state level organizations, NAHB and OHBA and a portion of your dues helps to fund them. These organizations are the primary groups that lobby and fight for our industry; their work is not often seen in our daily lives but it is constantly going on. The best example I can think of happened at the onset of COVID. Many of our industry counterparts in neighboring states were sitting at home unable to work but thanks in great part to the OHBA, we were deemed essential workers and because of that, we were able to continue to work. Today, the NAHB is fighting hard to delay or minimize the impacts of potential tariffs on softwoods and gypsum, among other critical items, that threaten to significantly hurt our industry as well as the country as a whole.
Supporting the industry where you earn your living: As a member of the NCBIA you are supporting your industry. Your involvement within the association is how you stay engaged and give back to your industry, and in turn the health of our business sector is strengthened by its active and engaged members. I strongly encourage each member to increase their participation in the association through joining a committee, attending events, and networking with other members.
Discounts available to members: Saving money is a perk that doesn’t need much explanation. Discounts start with group ratings on your worker’s compensation that can result in savings up to 53%. Programs with Lowe’s, Speedway/7 Eleven, Hastings, Verizon, FTD, as well as the HBA rebates program offer real savings to our members. These discounts alone can often cover the costs of membership.
Work with members of the NCBIA: As members of the association we abide by a code of ethics, and that code encourages our members to work with other members within the association. While it is not an entitlement to get work from other members, it is a conduit for members to work together and to find ways to collaborate on serving the needs of our communities and our respective customers. The bonds created by members engaging with and relying on other members to serve our respective customers is a major driver of benefit within the NCBIA.
Personal relationships: As a member of the NCBIA you have the opportunity to engage with other members to develop friendships and partnerships. These very often result in lifelong relationships that may begin or be enhanced through membership. This is evident through our generational members who literally “grew up” in the association as well as those relationships that were started simply by meeting at an event hosted by the association.
I encourage all members to spend some time thinking about the value you get from the NCBIA. As an association, our goal is to provide value to our members. As a member, it is your responsibility to get involved and create value for yourself and also for the association as a whole. How can your participation make the association better, which in turn will make your membership more valuable?
As I finish writing this article, I want to leave you with a quote to consider as it relates to the NCBIA. “Alone we can do so little, together we can do so much” — Helen Keller
All the best, John
John Toth, Floor Coverings International
by Judie Docs, CSP, MCSP, MIRM, CMP, CGP
2024 CIRCLE OF Excellence
Nominate a Fellow Member for the Circle of Excellence!
One of the best ways to recognize the hard work and dedication of an NCBIA member is by nominating them for the Circle of Excellence Awards!
Who Deserves to Be Honored?
Do you know a builder, remodeler, or associate who has gone above and beyond? Now is the time to celebrate their achievements! With multiple award categories available, there’s an opportunity for everyone to be recognized.
Why Nominate Someone?
Show your appreciation for the outstanding work of your peers.
Highlight the top projects completed by NCBIA’s finest professionals. Strengthen our industry by celebrating excellence and innovation. Why Enter Yourself?
Gain recognition as a leader in your field. Showcase your company’s achievements and build credibility. Advertise your business as an “award-winning” company!
Get Your Entries Ready!
The deadline has been extended a bit, but its still just around the corner. April 11, 2025, is the deadline.
Choose your category and submit your nomination today! The Call for Entries follows this article. Who are you most proud of? Who do you think deserves to be recognized? Enter yourself or nominate someone else for the Circle of Excellence today!
If you have any questions, please email me (judiencbia@gmail.com) or give me a call.
Why Enter?
Circle of Excellence celebrates the top projects completed by the finest builders, remodelers, and all other members of the North Coast Building Industry Association (NCBIA). Winning a Circle of Excellence award allows your company to advertise to consumers as an “award-winning” company.
Eligibility
The candidate must be a NCBIA member in good standing. Entry must have been created, produced, or marketed between November 1, 2023 and December 31, 2024.
Entry Preparation
Complete entry must be received by the NCBIA and may be submitted via email with ONE attachment of required items, or in a binder delivered to the NCBIA office, No later April 11, 2025 Payment of the entry fee must accompany entry. Each entry must be sent separately, clearly marked with what category it is for and who is submitting it.
Award Categories
BUILDER OF THE YEAR
Entry Fee: $75
Entry Requirements:
Candidate must be a full-time builder.
Please submit a paragraph explaining why you (or the person you are nominating) deserves this award.
Marketing:
Provide a set of floor plans (front elevation & plans) without identifying your company name or location of home.
Submit photos of front elevation, kitchen, master suite and one room of choice.
DEVELOPER OF THE YEAR
Entry Fee: $75
Entry Requirements:
Please submit a paragraph explaining why you (or the person you are nominating) deserves this award.
Entry Fee: $75
Entry Requirements:
REMODELER OF THE YEAR -SMALL VOLUME Under $3,000,000
Please submit a paragraph explaining why you (or the person you are nominating) deserves this award.
Marketing:
Submit four photos (before and after) of your most impressive project.
Entry Fee: $75
Entry Requirements:
REMODELER OF THE YEAR -LARGE VOLUME Over $3,000,000
Please submit a paragraph explaining why you (or the person you are nominating) deserves this award.
Marketing:
Submit four photos (before and after) of your most impressive project.
ASSOCIATE OF THE YEAR
Entry Fee: $75
Entry Requirements:
Please submit a paragraph explaining why you (or the person you are nominating) deserves this award.
SUPPLIER OF THE YEAR
Entry Fee: $75
Entry Requirements:
Please submit a paragraph explaining why you (or the person you are nominating) deserves this award.
TRADE OF THE YEAR
Entry Fee: $75
Entry Requirements:
Please submit a paragraph explaining why you (or the person you are nominating) deserves this award.
AFFILIATE OF THE YEAR
Entry Fee: $75
Entry Requirements:
Please submit a paragraph explaining why you (or the person you are nominating) deserves this award.
SALES MANAGER OF THE YEAR
Entry Fee: $75
Entry Requirements:
Please submit a paragraph explaining why you (or the person you are nominating) deserves this award.
ROOKIE SALES PROFESSIONAL OF THE YEAR
Entry Fee: $75
Entry Requirements:
Please submit a paragraph explaining why you (or the person you are nominating) deserves this award.
Entry Fee: $75
Entry Requirements:
BEST SALES/DESIGN CENTER
Please submit a paragraph explaining why this sales/design center deserves this award. Submit three photos of the sales/design center.
BEST SUPERINTENDENT/PRODUCTION MANAGER
Entry Fee: $75
Entry Requirements:
Describe the primary responsibilities of the nominated person. Explain why this person should be recognized.
BEST DEVELOPMENT ENTRANCE/SIGNAGE
Entry Fee: $75
Entry Requirements:
Submit one photo of the entrance/signage of development.
BEST PRODUCTION HOME
Entry Fee: $75 per entry
Entry Requirements:
Submit one copy of the floor plan
Submit color photo of each: exterior, main living area, master suite, kitchen and rooms/area of your choice
Brief description of the project.
Best Single-Family Product Design
Under 2,000 square feet
2,001-3,000 square feet
3,001-4,000 square feet
Over 4,000 square feet
Best Condo/Cluster Product Design
Under 2,000 square feet
2,001-3,000 square feet
3,001-4,000 square feet
Over 4,000 square feet
BEST PRODUCTION HOME FRONT ELEVATION
Entry Fee: $75
Entry Requirements:
Submit one photo of the front elevation.
BEST PRODUCTION HOME CREATIVE USE OF SPACE
Entry Fee: $75
Entry Requirements:
Brief description of the area. Submit 2-3 color photos of the area.
BEST PRODUCTION HOME UNIVERSAL DESIGN FLOOR PLAN
Entry Fee: $75
Entry Requirements:
Submit one photo of the front elevation.
BEST PRODUCTION HOME FLOOR PLAN
Entry Fee: $75 per entry
Entry Requirements:
Submit one photo of the floor plan.
Brief description of the project.
Under 2,000 square feet
2,001-3,000 square feet
3,001-4,000 square feet
Over 4,000 square feet
BEST PRODUCTION HOME INTERIOR MERCHANDISING
Entry Fee: $75
Entry Requirements:
Submit at least three photos of interior merchandising.
BEST CUSTOM HOME
Entry Fee: $75 per entry
Entry Requirements:
Submit one copy of the floor plan.
Submit color photo of each: exterior, main living area, master suite, kitchen and rooms/area of your choice.
Brief description of the project.
Best Single-Family Custom Home
Under 2,000 square feet
2,001-3,000 square feet
3,001-4,000 square feet
Over 4,000 square feet
BEST CUSTOM HOME FRONT ELEVATION
Entry Fee: $75
Entry Requirements:
Submit one photo of the front elevation.
BEST CUSTOM HOME FLOOR PLAN
Entry Fee: $75
Entry Requirements:
Submit one photo of the floor plan.
Brief description of the project.
Under 2,000 square feet
2,001-3,000 square feet
3,001-4,000 square feet
Over 4,000 square feet
BEST CUSTOM HOME INTERIOR MERCHANDISING
Entry Fee: $75
Entry Requirements:
Submit at least three photos of interior merchandising.
BEST CUSTOM HOME CREATIVE USE OF SPACE
Entry Fee: $75
Entry Requirements:
Brief Description of the area. Submit 2-3 color photos of the area.
CUSTOM HOME UNIVERSAL DESIGN FLOOR PLAN
Entry Fee: $75
Entry Requirements:
Submit one copy of the floor plan. Brief description of the project.
BEST TRENDSETTING TECHNOLOGY IN HOME DESIGN (PRODUCTION OR CUSTOM)
Entry Fee: $75
Entry Requirements:
Brief description of trendsetting technology. Submit at least one photo of the technology.
Entry Fee: $75
Categories:
BEST LANDSCAPING DESIGN
Best Residential Landscape Best Commercial Landscape
Entry Requirements:
Submit before and after photo(s).
BEST COMMUNITY (PRODUCTION OR CUSTOM)
Entry Fee: $75
Categories:
Best Single-Family Community Best Cluster/Condo Community
Entry Requirements:
Submit description of community. Submit Plat.
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN NEW HOME SALES
Entry Fee: $75 per entry
Entry Requirements:
Must be a salesperson representing a builder.
Must be new home construction sales.
Total volume closed transactions between November 1, 2023 and October 31, 2024. All entry forms must be validated by the builder with list of transactions, total volume of transactions and date transactions closed.
Categories:
Bronze Award
Silver Award
Gold Award
Platinum Award
$1,000,000-$2,000,000
$2,000,001-$5,000,000
$5,000,001-$10,000,000
$10,000,001 and over
BEST MARKETING
Entry Fee: $75 per entry
Entry Requirements:
Submit copy of marketing piece.
Best Advertisement-Builder Category
Best Marketing Piece (online or print) - Ad, Brochure, Flyer, Newsletter, Website
Best Advertisement-Associate Category
Best Marketing Piece (online or print) - Ad, Brochure, Flyer, Newsletter, Website
BEST COMMERCIAL BUILD
Entry Fee: $75 per entry
Entry Requirements:
Submit one copy of the floor plan. Submit color photo of each: exterior & up to four interior photos.
Under 3,000 square feet
Over 3,000 square feet
BEST COMMERCIAL REMODEL
Entry Fee: $75 per entry
Entry Requirements:
Submit before and after photo(s).
Under $150,000
Over $150,000
Small and Large Volume Remodelers
The following Categories are available for BOTH Small and Large Volume Remodeling Companies -SMALL VOLUME Under $3,000,000/yr -LARGE VOLUME Over $3,000,000/yr
BEST KITCHEN REMODEL
Entry Fee: $75 per entry
Categories:
Small Volume Remodeler (Under $3,000,000)
Large Volume Remodeler (Over $3,000,000)
Entry Requirements:
Submit before and after photo(s).
Under $50,000
$50,001 - $100,000
Over $100,000
BEST BATHROOM REMODEL
Entry Fee: $75 per entry
Categories:
Small Volume Remodeler (Under $3,000,000)
Large Volume Remodeler (Over $3,000,000)
Entry Requirements:
Submit before and after photo(s).
Under $25,000
$25,001 - $50,000
Over $50,000
BEST BASEMENT REMODEL
Entry Fee: $75 per entry
Categories:
Small Volume Remodeler (Under $3,000,000)
Large Volume Remodeler (Over $3,000,000)
Entry Requirements:
Submit before and after photo(s).
Under $50,000
$50,001 - $100,000
Over $100,000
BEST ADDITION
Entry Fee: $75 per entry
Categories:
Small Volume Remodeler (Under $3,000,000)
Large Volume Remodeler (Over $3,000,000)
Entry Requirements:
Submit before and after photo(s).
Under $50,000
$50,001 - $100,000
Over $100,000
BEST AGING-IN-PLACE REMODEL
Entry Fee: $75 per entry
Categories:
Small Volume Remodeler (Under $3,000,000)
Large Volume Remodeler (Over $3,000,000)
Entry Requirements:
Submit before and after photo(s).
Under $50,000
$50,001 - $100,000
Over $100,000
BEST ENTIRE HOUSE REMODEL
Entry Fee: $75 per entry
Categories:
Small Volume Remodeler (Under $3,000,000)
Large Volume Remodeler (Over $3,000,000)
Entry Requirements:
Submit before and after photo(s).
Under $250,000
$250,001 to $500,000
$500,001 to $1,000,000
Over $1,000,000
Important Dates:
Deadline for Entry Forms and Upload Entries Online: Friday, April 11, 2025 (as well as for binders)
Award Ceremony: Wednesday, May 7, 2025
Location : Tom's Country Place, 3442 Stoney Ridge Road, Avon
Once entry form is received, information on how to upload your entries will be emailed to you.
Company Name (as you would like it to appear on an award):
Contact Person:
Address:
City, State & Zip:
Email address:
# of Entries X $75 per entry = Total Amount Due:$ Check Enclosed Made Payable to NCBIA Send Invoice Pay by Credit Card
Credit Card Authorization
Name on Card:
Billing Address:
Card Number:
Expiration: / CRV: Billing Zip:
Signature:
A 3% Convenience Fee Will Be Charged for all Credit Card Payments
If you would rather call with credit card information - 440-289-4284 - Judie
Mail Completed form along with entry sheet to : 5321 Meadow Lane Court -B Suite 23, Sheffield Village, OH 44035 or email (judie@ncbia.com) by Friday, April 11, 2025
Entries: Please check the categories below that you are entering.
BUILDER OF THE YEAR
DEVELOPER OF THE YEAR
REMODELER OF THE YEAR-
Small Volume ( Under $3,000,000)
REMODELER OF THE YEARLarge Volume ( Over $3,000,000)
ASSOCIATE OF THE YEAR
SUPPLIER OF THE YEAR
TRADE OF THE YEAR
AFFILIATE OF THE YEAR
SALES MANAGER OF THE YEAR
ROOKIE SALES PROFESSIONAL OF THE YEAR
BEST SALES/DESIGN CENTER
BEST SUPERINTENDENT
/PRODUCTION MANAGER
BEST DEVELOPMENT ENTRANCE/SIGNAGE
□ Under 2,000 square feet
□ 2,001-3,000 square feet
□ 3,001-4,000 square feet
□ Over 4,000 square feet
BEST PRODUCTION HOME - BEST CONDO / CLUSTER PRODUCT DESIGN
□ Under 2,000 square feet
□ 2,001-3,000 square feet
□ 3,001-4,000 square feet
□ Over 4,000 square feet
BEST PRODUCTION HOME - SINGLE-FAMILY PRODUCT DESIGN BEST PRODUCTION HOME FRONT ELEVATION
Entries: Please check the categories below that you are entering.
LARGE VOLUME REMODELER CATEGORIES ( Over $3,000,000)
BEST KITCHEN REMODEL - LARGE VOLUME REMODEL
□ Under $50,000
□ $50,001 - $100,000
□ Over $100,000
BEST BATHROOM REMODEL - LARGE VOLUME REMODEL
□ Under $25,000
□ $25,001 - $50,000
□ Over $50,000
BEST BASEMENT REMODEL - LARGE VOLUME REMODEL
□ Under $50,000
□ $50,001 - $100,000
□ Over $100,000
BEST ADDITION - LARGE VOLUME REMODEL
□ Under $50,000
□ $50,001 - $100,000
□ Over $100,000
BEST AGING-IN-PLACE REMODEL - LARGE VOLUME REMODEL
□ Under $50,000
□ $50,001 - $100,000
□ Over $100,000
BEST ENTIRE HOUSE REMODEL - LARGE VOLUME REMODEL
□ Under $250,000
□ $250,001 - $500,000
□ $500,001 - $1,000,000
□ Over $100,000
OHBA EXECUTIVE VP
2025 NAHB LEGISLATIVE Conference
OHBA will be working on trying to secure meetings with Senators Husted and Moreno for Wednesday, June 11th in DC in conjunction with NABH Legislative Conference. If the senators are available to meet, we will the n share the time and location with you.
If you want OHBA to set-up any meetings with your local representative, please let us know.
Thank you!
Ohio Home Builders Association
Phone- 614/228-6647
2025 NAHB Legislative Conference
Save the Date for Legislative Conference
June 11, 2025
More than 900 business professionals engaged in all facets of r esidential construction trekked to Capitol Hill on June 12, 2024, to call on Congress to ease the chronic headwinds that are fanning the nation’s housing affordability crisis and impeding builders from boosting housing production. In more than 250 individual meetings with their representatives and senators, housing advocates urged lawmakers to act on three key issues ou tlined in NAHB’s housing plan—adopt reasonable and cost-effective building codes, ease severe shortages of distribution transformers, and promote careers in the skilled trades—to help builders make homeownership and renting more affordable.
by Vincent J. Squillace, CAE, OHBA Exec. VP
2025 NAHB Membership Drive
NAHB’s Membership Drive program is an exciting opportunity for HBAs to focus on membership recruitment and retention efforts while competing for prizes. New this year, new members and the NAHB member who recruited them will receive a free NAHB T-shirt, guaranteed to the first 1,000 orders.
Two HBA Prize Categories:
HBAs with 4.00%-6.99% Builder and Associate Member net growth will receive:
• One (1) complimentary IBS registration (Expo+Education)
• $750 travel stipend to assist with travel expenses
• $100 award for the HBA Executive Officer
• 2x bonus Spike credits
HBAs with 7% or higher Builder and Associate Member net growth will receive:
• Two (2) complimentary IBS registrations (Expo+Education)
• Two (2) $750 travel stipends to assist with travel expenses
• $150 award for the HBA Executive Officer
• 3x bonus Spike credits
IBS Prize Details
The 2026 NAHB International Builders’ Show is Feb. 14-19 in Orlando. If your HBA qualifies for a prize, you can choose a member (or members) to receive a complimentary IBS registration and travel stipend to attend the show. It’s a great way to help a member attend IBS for their first time or thank a top member recruiter.
What does the IBS Expo+Education Pass include?
• 3-day access to 100+ IBS education sessions
• 3-day entry to the IBS and KBIS exhibit floors and IBS Centrals
EYE ON HOUSING
U.S. SAWMILL PRODUCTION
Capacity Constant in 2024
Sawmill and wood preservation firms reported lower capacity utilization rates coupled with level production and capacity throughout 2024. Despite no growth in production in 2024, utilization rates have trended downwards since 2017 as sawmills have expanded production capability. Even with more production capability, real output has not followed as output remains lower than 2018.
Capacity utilization rates are a ratio of actual production and potential production capabilities for firms. The utilization rate for sawmills and wood preservations firms was 64.7% in the fourth quarter on a four-quarter moving average basis. As utilization rates have shifted lower, the gap between full production capability and actual production has grown. Actual production is typically lower than full capability due to multiple factors ranging from insufficient materials and orders to lack of labor.
By combining the Federal Reserve’s production index and the Census Bureau’s utilization rate, we can compose a rough index estimate of what the current production capacity is for U.S. sawmills and wood preservation firms. Shown below is a quarterly estimate of the production capacity index. This capacity index measures the real output if all firms were operating at their full capacity.
Based on the data above, sawmill production capacity has increased from 2015 but remains lower than peak levels in 2011. Most of the recent capacity gains took place between 2023 and 2024, followed by little gain over the course of 2024. As evident above, there is ample room to increase production of domestic lumber, but current production levels remain much unchanged over the past several years.
Employment is an important factor for ensuring firms reach their full capacity. For sawmill and wood preservation firms, the number of employees declined to its lowest level since 2021, reporting an average of just over 89,000 employees across the industry in the fourth quarter. Employment declines, likely due to a weak lumber market in 2024, help explain why utilization rates have fallen. With fewer workers, it is less likely that a firm can increase production to its full capability.
Since U.S. firms do not produce at their full potential, imports help to supplement domestic supply, especially in the softwood lumber market. According to Census international trade data , existing tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber have not reduced the need for imports to meet domestic consumption but have made the U.S. more reliant on nonNorth American lumber, resulting in unnecessarily complex supply chains. The current AD/CVD Canadian softwood lumber tariff rate stands at 14.5% and is expected to double under the administrative review process by the Department of Commerce. Potential tariffs on lumber, such as the ongoing 232 investigation and 25% on all Canadian goods, could push tariffs rates on Canadian softwood lumber above 50% later this year. Higher tariffs on softwood lumber mean higher costs for builders who use lumber as a key input to construction. Given the current housing unaffordability crisis, any additional costs will continue push homeownership and affordable housing further out of reach for households in the U.S.
mynpp.com/north-coast-bia/
EYE ON HOUSING
INFLATION EASED Ahead of Tariffs
BY: FAN-YU KUO
Inflation slowed to a 3-month low in February, with decreases in airfares and gasoline partially offsetting shelter increases. Despite the easing, the report does not capture upcoming tariff impacts. The inflationary pressure from tariffs and trade war would weigh on the economy and complicate the Fed’s path to its 2% target. Meanwhile, while housing drove nearly half of February’s inflation increase and remains higher than the 2019 pre-pandemic average of 3.4%, it continues to show signs of cooling – the year-overyear change in the shelter index remained below 5% for a sixth straight month and posted its lowest annual gain since December 2021.
While the Fed’s interest rate cuts could help ease some pressure on the housing market, its ability to address rising housing costs is limited, as these increases are driven by a lack of affordable supply and increasing development costs. In fact, tight monetary policy hurts housing supply because it increases the cost of AD&C financing. This can be seen on the graph below, as shelter costs continue to rise at an elevated pace despite Fed policy tightening. Additional housing supply is the primary solution to tame housing inflation and with it, overall inflation. This emphasizes why the cost of construction, including the cost of building materials, matters not just for housing but also the inflation outlook and the path of future monetary policy.
Consequently, the election result has put inflation back in the spotlight and added additional upside and downside risks to the economic outlook. Proposed tax cuts and tariffs could increase inflationary pressures, suggesting a more gradual easing cycle with a slightly higher terminal federal funds rate. However, economic growth could also be higher with lower regulatory burdens. Given the housing market’s sensitivity to interest rates, a higher inflation path could extend the affordability crisis and constrain housing supply as builders continue to grapple with lingering supply chain challenges.
During the past twelve months, on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the Consumer Price Index rose by 2.8% in February, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ report. This followed a 3.0% year-over-year increase in January. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the “core” CPI increased by 3.1% over the past twelve months, marking the first notable decline after hovering between 3.2% and 3.3% since June 2024. A large portion of the “core” CPI is the housing shelter index, which increased 4.2% over the year, the smallest year-over-year increase since December 2021. Meanwhile, the component index of food rose by 2.6%, and the energy component index fell by 0.2%.
On a monthly basis, the CPI rose by 0.2% in February (seasonally-adjusted), after a 0.5% increase in January. The “core” CPI increased by 0.2% in February.
The price index for a broad set of energy sources rose by 0.2% in February, with declines in gasoline (-1.0%) offset by increases in electricity (+1.0%), natural gas (+2.5%) and fuel oil (+0.8%). Meanwhile, the food index rose 0.2%, after a 0.4% increase in January. The index for food away from home increased by 0.4% and the index for food at home remained unchanged.
The index for shelter (+0.3%) was the largest contributor to the monthly increase in all items index, accounting for nearly half of the total increase. Other top contributors that rose in February include indexes for medical care (+0.3%), used cars and trucks (+0.9%), household furnishings and operations (+0.4%), as well as recreation (+0.3%). Meanwhile, the index for airline fares (-4.0%) and new vehicles (-0.1%) were among the few major indexes that decreased over the month.
The index for shelter makes up more than 40% of the “core” CPI, rose by 0.3% in February, following an increase of 0.4% in January. Both indexes for owners’ equivalent rent (OER) and rent of primary residence (RPR) increased by 0.3% over the month. Despite the moderation, shelter costs remained the largest contributors to headline inflation.
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EYE ON HOUSING
GAINS FOR CUSTOM Home Building
NAHB’s analysis of Census Data from the Quarterly Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design survey indicates gains for custom home builders after a period slight softening of market share. The custom building market is less sensitive to the interest rate cycle than other forms of home building. There were 47,000 total custom building starts during the fourth quarter of 2024. This marks a 7% increase compared to the fourth quarter of 2023. Over the last four quarters (2024 as a whole), custom housing starts totaled 181,000 homes, just below a 2% increase compared to the prior four quarter total (178,000 in 2023).
Multifamily starts ended the year down 25% from 2023. In December, and on a three-month moving average basis, there were 1.7 apartments completing construction for every one apartment starting construction. Multifamily construction will stabilize later in 2025 as more deals pencil out, with the industry supported by a low national unemployment rate.
BY: ROBERT DIETZ
Currently, the market share of custom home building, based on a one-year moving average, is approximately 18% of total single-family starts. This is down from a prior cycle peak of 31.5% set during the second quarter of 2009 and the 21% local peak rate at the beginning of 2023, after which spec home building gained market share.
Note that this definition of custom home building does not include homes intended for sale, so the analysis in this post uses a narrow definition of the sector. It represents home construction undertaken on a contract basis for which the builder does not hold tax basis in the structure during construction.
SOFTWOOD LUMBER PRICES CONTINUE to Lead Price Growth for Building Materials
PPrices for inputs to new residential construction— excluding capital investment, labor, and imports—were up 0.5% in February according to the most recent Producer Price Index (PPI) report published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The increase in January was revised downward to 1.1%. The Producer Price Index measures prices that domestic producers receive for their goods and services, this differs from the Consumer Price Index which measures what consumers pay and includes both domestic products as well as imports.
The inputs to the New Residential Construction Price Index grew 0.7% from February of last year. The index can be broken into two components—the goods component increased 1.2% over the year, while services decreased 0.1%. For comparison, the total final demand index, which measures all goods and services across the economy, increased 3.2% over the year, with final demand with respect to goods up 1.7% and final demand for services up 3.9% over the year.
Input Goods
The goods component has a larger importance to the total residential construction inputs price index, representing around 60%. For the month, the price of input goods to new residential construction was up 0.6% in February.
The input goods to residential construction index can be further broken down into two separate components, one measuring energy inputs with the other measuring goods less energy inputs. The latter of these two components simply represents building materials used in residential construction, which makes up around 93% of the goods index.
BY: JESSE WADE
Energy input prices grew 2.6% between January and February but remained 8.5% lower compared to one year ago. Building material prices were up 0.5% between January and February while they were up 2.0% compared to one year ago.
Among materials used in residential construction, lumber and wood products ranks 3rd in terms of importance for the Inputs to New Residential Construction Index. Nonmetallic mineral products and metal products rank 1st and 2nd, respectively. The top lumber and wood products include general millwork, prefabricated structural members, notedge worked softwood lumber, softwood veneer/plywood and hardwood veneer/plywood. Prices for these wood commodities experienced little growth for most of 2024. Currently, softwood lumber prices were 11.7% higher compared to one year ago while on a monthly basis, prices rose 3.0%. This marks the fourth straight month where yearly price growth was above 10% for softwood lumber.
Input Services
While prices of inputs to residential construction for services were down 0.1% over the year, they were up 0.4% in February from January. The price index for service inputs to residential construction can be broken out into three separate components: a trade services component, a transportation and warehousing services component, and a services excluding trade, transportation and warehousing component. The most significant component is trade services (around 60%), followed by services less trade, transportation and warehousing (around 29%), and finally transportation and warehousing services (around 11%). The largest component, trade services, was down 1.5% from a year ago. The services less trade, transportation and warehousing component was up 1.6% over the year. Lastly, prices for transportation and warehousing services advanced 2.2% compared to February last year.
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EYE ON HOUSING
HBGI Q4 2024: SINGLE-FAMILY Construction Ends Year with Growth
The continued shortage of existing homes for sale has helped to keep new single-family construction growing across all regions, according to the latest National Association of Home Builders release of the Home Building Geography Index (HBGI). Despite persistent factors that continue to affect housing affordability, including a limited supply of buildable lots, rising construction costs, and a shortage of skilled labor, single-family construction grew over all four quarters of 2024. Multifamily construction remained lackluster but did feature some growth in lower density areas.
Single-Family
All HBGI-tracked geographies posted another quarter of growth in the fourth quarter after peaking in the second quarter. The HBGI is constructed using permit data, which has continued to post higher volumes than last year despite residential construction dealing with persistent structural issues.
Among the HBGI geographies, the highest growth in the fourth quarter of 2024 was registered in small metro core counties, which increased 10.3% year-over-year on a fourquarter moving average basis (4QMA). The market with the lowest level of growth was non metro/micro counties which were up 4.8% year-over-year (4QMA).
In terms of market share, single-family construction took place primarily in small metro core county areas, representing 29.1% of single-family construction. The smallest single-family construction market remained non metro/micro county areas, with a 4.2% market share.
BY: JESSE WADE
Multifamily
Multifamily construction continued to register negative growth rates across the largest markets, with large metro core county areas posting a decline of 13.5% quartering in the fourth quarter (4QMA). While permit levels remain lower for new multifamily construction, there were some positive signs in less densely populated areas. Small metro outlying county areas had the largest growth rate in the fourth quarter at 9.0%, the second consecutive quarter of growth. These areas make up around 5.0% of the total multifamily construction market.
The fourth quarter of 2024 HBGI data along with an interactive HBGI map can be found at http://nahb.org/ hbgi.
EYE ON THE ECONOMY
FED REMAINS IN WAIT and See Mode
In a widely anticipated move, the Federal Reserve remained on pause with respect to rate cuts at the conclusion of its March meeting, maintaining the federal funds rate in the 4.25% to 4.5% range. While the central bank acknowledged that the economy remains solid, it emphasized a data- and policy-dependent approach to future monetary policy decisions due to increased uncertainty. According to Chair Powell, the Fed “is not in any hurry” to enact policy change and is well positioned to wait to make future interest rate moves. However, in a small dovish step, the Fed slowed the pace of its balance sheet reduction, but only for Treasuries. The Treasury security runoff will be reduced from $25 billion a month to $5 billion. The mortgage-backed security run-off process will remain at a $35 billion a monthly rate. Chair Powell stated that the change was not a signal of broader economic issues and was just a technical adjustment to the long-run goal of balance sheet reduction
Although the Fed did not directly address ongoing trade policy debates (and particularly trade and tariff details expected on April 2) and their economic implications, it reaffirmed that future monetary policy assessments would consider “a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures, and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.”
BY: ROBERT DIETZ
With respect to prices, the Fed’s March statement noted that “inflation remains somewhat elevated.” For example, the CPI is at a 2.8% year-over-year growth rate. Shelter inflation, while improving as noted by Chair Powell, continues to run at an elevated 4.2% annual growth rate, significantly above the CPI. These costs are driven by challenges such as financing costs, regulatory burdens, rising insurance costs, and the structural housing deficit.
The March Fed statement highlighted the central bank’s dual mandate, noting its ongoing assessment of the “balance of risks.” Crucially, the Fed reiterated its “strong commitment to support maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.”
The Fed also published its updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). The central bank reduced its GDP outlook for 2025 from 2.1% growth to just 1.7% (measured as percentage change from the fourth quarter of the prior year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated). Policy uncertainly likely played a role for this adjustment.
The Fed made only marginal changes to its forecast for unemployment, pointing to a 4.3% jobless rate for the fourth quarter of 2025. The Fed did lift its inflation outlook, increasing its forecast for Core PCE inflation from 2.5% for the year to 2.8%. Forecasters, including NAHB, have lifted inflation estimates for 2025 due to tariffs, although tariffs may only produce a one-off shift in the price level rather than a permanent increase for the inflation rate. Nonetheless, Chair Powell noted that tariffs have already affected inflation forecasts for 2025. The Fed’s SEP also indicated that the Fed may cut twice this year, placing the federal funds rate below 4% during the fourth quarter of 2025. However, those FOMC members who saw less than two rate cuts this year were more likely to forecast no rate cuts at all for 2025.
Looking over the long run, the SEP projections suggest that the terminal rate for the federal funds rate will be 3%, implying six total twenty-five basis point cuts in the future as rates normalize. This is lower than our forecast, which suggests a higher long-run inflation risk path and a terminal rate near 3.5%. A lower federal funds rate means lower AD&C loan rates for builders, which can help with housing supply and hold back shelter inflation.
EYE ON THE ECONOMY
POLICY UNCERTAINTY a Rising Risk Factor
The Trump 2.0 administration is undertaking a dramatic set of economic policy changes. In just a few weeks, the president has proposed and/or enacted an aggressive slimming of government staffing, increased tariffs and trade barriers, supported the extension of existing tax cuts, proposed a broad deregulation effort, reversed immigration policy, and outlined a reworking of U.S. foreign policy that is more independent from the longstanding post-World War II system.
Estimating the net positive/negative effects of this evolving new set of economic rules is challenging. Although reduced regulatory costs and an extension of the 2017 tax reform are positive developments for home builders, higher tariffs and mass deportations are risk factors for the industry and the general inflation outlook. Anecdotally, I am hearing from builders that the cost impacts of tariffs on the average price of a new home could range between $7,500 to $10,000.
In fact, the pace of change may be too much for markets to absorb. While surveys suggest broad support among businesses for much of the Trump administration's policies, investors have reduced holdings of stocks and equities and, instead, have purchased U.S. Treasury bonds as a flight to quality in response to higher risk. For example, some investors hoped that tariff threats on Canada and Mexico were a negotiating stance. Instead, such 25% tariffs are now becoming North American trade policy.
As a result of these financial risks, the 10-year Treasury rate has fallen from 4.8% in mid-January to below 4.2%. This has moved mortgage rates slightly lower, even as the Fed has been on pause. Lower long-term interest rates are a net positive for the industry, even though the decline is a result of reduced growth expectations for 2025.
Housing is off to a slow start for the year. New home sales decreased in January to a three-month low, as housing affordability continues to sideline potential home buyers. Sales of newly built, single-family homes in January decreased 10.5% to a 657,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate. New single-family home inventory in January continued to rise to a level of 495,000, up 7.4% compared to a year earlier. This represents a 9-month supply at the current building pace. Completed ready-to-occupy inventory was at a level of 118,000, up 39% compared to a year ago.
While new home inventory levels have increased to measures that would, in normal market conditions, suggest a slowdown for single-family home building, resale inventory remains lean. Total existing home sales fell 4.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.08 million in January. However, sales were 2.0% higher than a year ago, marking the fourth consecutive month of annual increases. Although existing home inventory is up 16.8% from a year ago, the current 3.5-month supply remains low compared to balanced market conditions (4.5- to 6-month supply) and illustrates the long-run need for more home construction.
The future pace of new and existing home sales will depend on macro factors, including labor market conditions and economic growth. Tariffs (external sales taxes) are a significant headwind, with shortterm increases for prices of key building materials like softwood lumber.
Moreover, there is a certain amount of "complacency" risk among markets. Change and reform can be positive factors, but markets do not like uncertainty. And the unwinding of established economic and financial systems can produce wide-ranging economic consequences, particularly if the potential benefits of such changes are in the future while the costs are here today.
Terry
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