Market Commentary
The property market is not – and never has been – an industry that stays the same for long. A seller’s market soon becomes a buyer’s market, a buyer's market becomes a seller’s market, and the cycle continues.
The current cycle was particularly long, running from approximately 2009 - 2022. It extended due to money being printed and the lowering of the interest rate to keep the economy going. In general though, cycles range from every 2 - 4 years to every 5 - 10 years.
Over the past two years, there has been unprecedented growth in the Christchurch housing market. To look at the month of September year on year between 2016 and 2020, the median house sale price in Christchurch increased by 9.7%. Compare this with the period from 2020 to 2022, there was a 43.3% increase.
Looking at West Melton, the difference is even greater. The median house sale price increased by 3.2% from September 2016 to 2020, whereas the past two years shows an extraordinary increase of 50.5%.
As the saying goes, what goes up, must come down. And, the faster something goes up, the harder it hits. A number of regions around New Zealand are already seeing a drop in median sale prices. Although this trend isn't yet apparent in Christchurch and the surrounding suburbs, it is inevitable that we will see a return to a healthy growth rate of 2 - 4% in the coming months. A growth rate sitting around 40 – 50% is simply not sustainable, nor healthy.
In the basic economy of real estate: when the interest rate is low, homes are worth more; when the interest rate is high, homes are worth less. In September 2021, the fixed interest rate was sitting around 2.5%; homes were selling for record prices and everyone wanted to buy. There was a sense of "panic" buying as stock levels were low. In September 2022, the interest rate was closer to 5%. And as we see interest rates hiking to even 8% and higher, affordability takes its toll. More homes are on the market and buyers are only willing to pay what a home is realistically worth – despite what it “might” have sold for six months ago.
There is nothing unusual about what is happening. We are in a period where house prices will become more stable. As long as you are well placed for the increase in mortgage rates, there is nothing to be concerned about. And as always, if you are buying and selling in the same market, it is always going to be the right time to sell.
Should you ever need any real estate advice, I am always here to help. And if you are thinking of selling and would like to discuss how an area specialist can benefit you, please reach out anytime.
Nathan NajibA little about Nathan Najib
Nathan is proud of the life he has created. Every day he is living his desire to change the world of real estate from something it should never have been, to something that supports the community and helps others.
Starting out in the real estate business at 19, by 23 Nathan was recognised as being one of the best in the industry. However, he felt there was something fundamentally wrong and wanted to make a difference. He decided to build his own vision: To create the most people-focused real estate company on earth.
Now Najib Real Estate is changing the perception of real estate, bringing integrity and transparency to the process. It holds close the philosophy that the interest of the client always comes first. We know what is important, and we are always ready to listen to you and your needs.
Embedded in everything we undertake, Najib is committed to its core values of: Health, Humility, Commitment, Progress, and Recognition and Celebration.
Success at Najib Real Estate means treating people well, building long lasting relationships, and making the process as simple and transparent as possible. We go above and beyond, and provide an excellent experience that keeps clients coming back time and time again.
West Melton Breakdown in the last 6 months $1,200,000 Median Selling Price 19 Properties Changed Hands $2,150,000 Highest Selling Price 45 Average Days on the Market 3% increase 45.5% decline 7% increase 1% decline Residential Sales (including sections) April 2022 - September 2022 33 Najib's Average Days on the Market
115 Silver Peaks Drive, West Melton
Sold by Nathan Najib for $2,150,000 May 2022
"What a pleasure it was to deal with Nathan and his team at Najib Real Estate. From the initial consult I felt a sense of comfort with Nathan. The process was streamlined and constant updates kept my mind at ease, knowing they were doing their utmost to market and present the property to make it stand out from the rest. Right up to auction day I was kept informed. Being the first time I have sold a property this way, it was reassuring and took a lot of stress away. The auction was a complete success with both happy vendors and purchasers, which is the perfect outcome."
Lee
4 2 2
"Thanks again Najib Real Estate for making the next step in life a breeze."
(Vendor)
119 Adams Road, West Melton
Sold by Nathan Najib for $1,200,000
May 2022
"Without Nathan’s ability to be flexible in his sales techniques our end result would have had a very different outcome. Because of the communication and ability to be flexible, we highly recommend Nathan and his team if you are looking for a great end result in a changing market."
Gary and Kirsty (Vendors and Purchasers)"Selling with Nathan was a great experience."
4 2 2
9 Westview Crescent, West Melton
Sold by Nathan Najib for $850,000
June 2022
"Nathan and his team are extremely easy to deal with. They look after you with your needs and wants. With their professional attributes, the job they do is really good, and they get a great outcome. Absolutely highly recommended."
Lindsay (Vendor)"A team with all the skills."
4 2 4
4/186 Knights Road, West Melton
Sold by Nathan Najib for $2,300,000
July 2022
"We were approached by Nathan to sell our property in West Melton. The team at Najib Real Estate made what could have been a stressful and difficult process, as seamless as it could be. Nathan listened to our requirements and worked hard to produce a mutual agreement through careful negotiation with us and the purchasers. Nathan cares passionately about real estate and works hard to get results. The team had great communication, keeping us up to date with all that was happening."
Richard and Raewynne (Vendors)"Professional and passionate sales team."
4 2 5
Lot 2, 91 Iris Taylor Avenue, West Melton
Sold by Nathan Najib for $600,000
July 2022
"We were impressed with Nathan's knowledge and courteous manner. Since meeting Nathan we have followed his presence in the area and noted how successful he has been. Nathan has always kept in touch with us. When we decided to subdivide our section Nathan came to mind immediately having had excellent reports from others in the area who have also subdivided or sold their homes with him. We would not hesitate to recommend Nathan to anyone thinking of selling or buying.
Murray and Maree (Vendors)"Nathan is very professional, knowledgeable, caring and personable."
1468m2
9 Royston Common, West Melton
Sold by Nathan Najib for $1,400,000September 2022
"Nathan communicated with us on a regular basis from the first time he came around to appraise our house until the offer went unconditional. 100% for communication. Nathan works hard and does the hard mahi to sell your property at a price that works for everyone. Nathan is a skilled negotiator and has excellent professional people on his team and this means the whole process of selling your home is seamless. Well done Team Najib."
Murray and Barbara (Vendors)"Excellent knowledge and service."
4 2 4
Residential Sales in West Melton
April 2022 - September 2022
Address Bedrooms Sales Date Land size (m2) Price
1 115 Silver Peaks Drive 4 May 2022 5431m2 $2,150,000
2 84 Preston Avenue 5 September 2022 5511m2 $1,590,000
3 62 Iris Taylor Avenue 4 May 2022 1301m2 $1,495,000
4 181 B Halkett Road 5 May 2022 1800m2 $1,475,000
5 9 Royston Common 4 September 2022 1025m2 $1,400,000
6 27 Jacks Drive 5 April 2022 1529m2 $1,340,000
7 64 Preston Avenue 4 May 2022 849m2 $1,250,000
8 98 Silver Peaks Drive 4 September 2022 2068m2 $1,250,000
9 9 Shona Lane 4 June 2022 1080m2 $1,245,000
10 788 Weedons Ross Road 5 July 2022 1201m2 $1,200,000
11 32 Silver Peaks Drive 4 June 2022 1613m2 $1,170,000
12 4 Kingsdowne Drive 3 July 2022 900m2 $1,150,000
13 12 Laird Place 6 September 2022 1764m2 $1,040,000
14 2 Laird Place 4 May 2022 1225m2 $910,000
15 9 Westview Crescent 4 June 2022 1162m2 $850,000
Address Bedroom Sales Date Land size (m2) Price
16 Lot 2/91 Iris Taylor Avenue n/a July 2022 1468m2 $600,000
17 59 Ridgeland Way n/a August 2022 3251m2 $575,000
18 Lot 84 Ridgeland Way n/a July 2022 3428m2 $556,800
19 7 Jacks Drive n/a May 2022 596m2 $435,000
Lifestyle Property Sales in West Melton
April 2022 - September 2022
Address Bedrooms Sales Date Land size (m2) Price
1 605 Hoskyns Road 4 June 2022 196700m2 $3,400,000
2 4/186 Knights Road 4 July 2022 42452m2 $2,300,000
3 22678 Bells Road 6 August 2022 42800m2 $2,145,000
4 3/820 West Coast Road 4 May 2022 39900m2 $1,820,000
5 105 McKays Road 4 May 2022 41000m2 $1,800,000
6 128 Langdales Road 5 July 2022 40700m2 $1,720,000
7 32 Finlays Road 4 August 2022 40900m2 $1,490,000
8 496 West Melton Road 4 August 2022 43600m2 $1,360,000
9 508 Halkett Road 5 August 2022 54000m2 $1,350,000
10 589 Old West Coast Road 5 July 2022 59300m2 $1,320,000
11 80 Genesis Drive 4 August 2022 8548m2 $1,270,000
12 173 Bells Road 4 June 2022 40700m2 $1,265,000
13 119 Adams Road 4 May 2022 40000m2 $1,200,000
14 74 Alpineview 5 May 2022 40500m2 $1,025,000
West Melton Annual Sales Data
Residential House and Section Sales
Year Number of House Sales Median House Sale Price % Change Median Days to Sell (Residential Houses) Number of Section Sales Median Section Sale Price % Change
2012 33 $600,000 -8.68% 61 171 $211,000 0.48%
2013 56 $654,500 9.08% 40 143 $215,000 1.90%
2014 69 $690,000 5.42% 35 30 $279,000 29.77%
2015 52 $722,500 4.71% 37 34 $265,000 -5.02%
2016 47 $790,000 9.34% 32 52 $263,000 -0.75%
2017 40 $805,000 1.90% 34 55 $259,000 -1.52%
2018 54 $804,000 -0.12% 51 33 $264,000 1.93%
2019 58 $799,000 -0.62% 41 35 $266,900 1.10%
2020 76 $841,000 5.26% 41 26 $285,000 6.78%
2021 50 $1,107,500 31.69% 26 16 $450,000 57.89%
Why we use Price Guides
"We really appreciated the price guide approach to marketing."
VivienneMilmine(Vendor)
When you are selling your home, you want to know that you are selling it for the highest price possible. In order to achieve the maximum sale price, your property needs to be priced fairly from the start, and this needs to be transparent to buyers.
By putting a price guide on a property, it immediately allows prospective buyers to see if the home is in their price range. Most buyers will move straight past a listing online if they don’t see a price – or price range. How often do you see an item in a shop with no price and immediately continue walking as you think it will be out of your budget?
People are time-poor. They don’t want to spend time phoning or emailing an agent, and then wait for a reply, only to find out that the home is not in their budget, or worse, to be told they’re not sure and to just come for a look. In this modern world with technology at our fingertips constantly, we expect ALL of the information to be available in front us at just the click of a button. Equally, buyers don’t want to see how much a home sold for later and regret not putting in an offer.
By putting a price range on a home, not only are we reaching 100% of the potential market, but we are also offering potential buyers some certainty. They can visit an open home with the confidence that they are in the right ballpark.
Both vendors and buyers want authentic, honest and accurate advice. Although it may not be possible to give an exact sale price, a good real estate agent should know within 10% what a home is worth. Despite the argument that a home will sell for “what the market thinks its worth”, this is not necessarily the case if you are only attracting a small percentage of its potential buyers.
Having a price guide brings clarity to the selling and buying process. And it is just that – a price guide. It needs to be flexible with feedback following open homes and inspections. A price guide does not cap the price of a home either. With competition created between buyers, and in a multiple offer situation, a home may well sell for above and beyond a guide.
At Najib, it is our preference to have a price guide - or price - on all our listings. Price guides bring transparency to real estate and make sure that everyone is happy with the end result.
Nathan Najib
Specialising in West Melton
m 027 514 0775
116 Peterborough Street Christchurch Central 8013
najibrealestate.co.nz
@ nathan@najibre.co.nz Licensed REAA 2008