Summer 2020 NACAT News

Page 1

NORTH AMERICAN COUNCIL OF AUTOMOTIVE TEACHERS

VOL. 34

Summer 2020

NO. 2


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Article

Effects of Reactive Social Distancing on the 1918 Influenza Pandemic By: Duo Yu, Qianying Lin, Alice PY Chiu, and Daihai He Abstract

The 1918 influenza pandemic was characterized by multiple epidemic waves. We investigated reactive social distancing, a form of behavioral response where individuals avoid potentially infectious contacts in response to available information on an ongoing epidemic or pandemic. We modelled its effects on the three influenza waves in the United Kingdom. In previous studies, human behavioral response was modelled by a Power function of the proportion of recent influenza mortality in a population, and by a Hill function, which is a function of the number of recent influenza mortality. Using a simple epidemic model with a Power function and one common set of parameters, we provided a good model fit for the observed multiple epidemic waves in London boroughs, Birmingham and Liverpool. We further applied the model parameters from these three cities to all 334 administrative units in England and Wales and including the population sizes of individual administrative units. We computed the Pearson’s correlation between the observed and simulated for each administrative unit. We found a median correlation of 0.636, indicating that our model predictions are performing reasonably well. Our modelling approach is an improvement from previous studies where separate models are fitted to each city. With the reduced number of model parameters used, we achieved computational efficiency gain without over-fitting the model. We also showed the importance of reactive behavioral distancing as a potential non-pharmaceutical intervention during an influenza pandemic. Our work has both scientific and public health significance.

Continued on page 9 About the Authors

Duo Yu • Roles: Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Validation, Writing – original draft • Affiliations: Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Kowloon, Hong Kong (SAR), China, Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Texas, Health Science Center at Houston, Houston, United States of America Qianying Lin • Roles: Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Validation, Visualization, Writing – original draft • Affiliation: Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Kowloon, Hong Kong (SAR), China Alice PY Chiu • Roles: Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Validation, Visualization, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing • Affiliation: Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Kowloon, Hong Kong (SAR), China Daihai He • Roles: Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Funding acquisition, Investigation, Methodology, Project administration, Resources, Software, Supervision, Validation, Visualization, Writing – review & editing • Affiliation: Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Kowloon, Hong Kong (SAR), China This article is being reprinted with permission under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The license can be viewed at: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Citation: Yu D, Lin Q, Chiu AP, He D (2017) Effects of reactive social distancing on the 1918 influenza pandemic. PLoS ONE 12(7): e0180545. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0180545

Summer 2020 | www.nacat.org |  3


JOIN US ONLINE AT:

HTTP://WWW.NACAT.ORG Officers

President 2019 - 2021 Curt Ward

Vice President / President Elect 2019 - 2021 Tom Millard

Secretary / Treasurer 2018 - 2020 Jim Voth Red River College Z117-2055 Notre Dame Ave Winnipeg, MB R3H 0J9

Warren Tech 13300 W 2nd PL, Auto Tech BLDG C Lakewood, CO 80228

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Board Members Chairman of the Board 2019-2020 Steve Gibson

Board Member 2017-2020 Tom Millard

Board Member 2017-2020 Stephen Tucker

Board Member 2018-2021 Tim Isaac

Board Member 2018-2021 Louie Longhi

Board Member 2018-2021 Rick Martineau

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K&N Engineering 1455 Citrus Street Riverside, CA 92507

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NACAT News is the official publication of the North American Council of Automotive Teachers. NACAT News is currently published three times per year. NACAT assumes no responsibility for the contents or accuracy of articles, advertising, or editorials. No permission is required to reproduce articles for educational use. Copyrighted material and sources should be credited.

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4  NACAT News

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Article

Developing Micro-Teaching Video As Learning Media In Automotive Teacher Education By: Herminarto Sofyan,Tawarjono Us, Muhkamad Wakid, and Bambang Sulistyo Abstract

The purpose of this research were: (1) to produce an appropriate micro-teaching video for the student teachers of Teacher Professionalism Training Program of Automotive Engineering Education, (2) to find out their responses to the micro-teaching video, and (3) to find out the effectiveness of the micro-teaching video in teaching the students. This research employed ADDIE model consisting of five stages namely analysis, design, development, implementation and evaluation. The product of this research was validated by the experts of media and materials in automotive engineering field. The product was tested on the students of Teacher Professionalism Training Program of Automotive Engineering Education Department. The research data were collected using questionnaire and observation sheet, and were analyzed through quantitative descriptive analysis. The results showed that: (1) micro-teaching video as learning media was classified into ‘very good’ level with the mean score 4.89 by the media expert, and also categorized into ‘very good’ with the mean score 4.67 by the materials expert, (2) the student teachers’ responses to the video during the try-out were classified into ‘very good’ level with the mean score 4.20, and (3) micro-teaching video as learning media wasassumed to effectively improve the student teachers’ teaching skills. There was a significant improvement on the student teachers’ practice score, from 77.26 in the first practice to 83.59 in the second practice. In conclusion, micro-teaching video is an appropriate and effective learning medium for student teachers in Teacher Professionalism Training Program.

Continued on page 10

Introduction

Teacher Professionalism Training Program is a mean to prepare graduate students to hone their aptitude and interest to be professional teachers. It is expected that after finishing this program, they can fully master teacher’s competences as stated in

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6  NACAT News

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Officer and Board Update

Chairman of the Board NACAT Conference and Expo time is almost here! Have you registered yet? If you haven’t, please consider joining us July 20-23 at the Cincinnati Marriott Rivercenter on the beautiful Cincinnati, OH/Northern Kentucky riverfront. Our conference team along with Sue Cline from the Northern Kentucky Convention and Visitors Bureau have made every effort to bring us a top-tier instructor training event in 2020. If you have attended past NACAT conferences and haven’t returned in a few years, the 2020 Conference and Expo will be a new experience for everyone! What have we changed?

NEW Conference Schedule offers travel-friendly planning options. New for 2020, the NACAT Conference and Expo has a new condensed schedule. Conference and Expo check-in will open Monday morning July 20, with the annual NACAT business meeting being held at 12:00. Monday afternoon has an additional BONUS training session available from 1:30-3:00, and the first conference session from 3:30-5:00. We’ll close out Monday with our opening welcome reception from 6:00-7:30. Tuesday will look similar to past years, with our New Member event moving to a breakfast from 7:00-8:00. Training sessions are scheduled 8:00-9:30, 10:00-11:30, 2:00-3:30, and 4:00-5:30. New this year is a group lunch with keynote speaker delivering insights and commentary on some of the hottest topics in the classroom, shop, and industry. Tuesday evening will be the NACAT BBQ and Valve Cover Races from 6:30-9:30. On Wednesday morning, training sessions run from 8:00-9:30 and 10:00-11:30, with the NACAT Expo open all afternoon from 1:00-5:00. Thursday will look very similar to Tuesday, with training sessions at 8:00-9:30, 10:00-11:30, 2:00-3:30, and 4:00-5:30, and another group lunch with keynote speaker. The closing awards banquet ends the week Thursday evening from 6:00-9:30. Did I mention your Tuesday and Thursday lunches earn you training hours? You can learn and earn while you eat! This entire package fits into a trip with 1 less night hotel stay than previous years. Plan and Manage Your Conference Experience with the NACAT App! On the top of my “I can’t believe it!” list, NACAT now has an app!!! The NACAT App will bring the conference schedule, training session summaries, expo exhibitors, and more to the palm of your hand. Schedule changes, updates, and news broadcast straight to your device via push notifications. Unbelievable! Can you tell I’m excited?? The Conference and Expo is 100% Self Contained in the Marriott Rivercenter. Just 12 miles from Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport, transportation costs to/from the Marriott will be very affordable. Once onsite at the hotel, you won’t need to worry about going anywhere else, so you can fully concentrate on your professional development. Non-Members: Your Conference Registration Fee Includes 1 Year NACAT Membership! A little known fact, if you are not a NACAT Member and pay the non-member registration fee to attend the NACAT Conference and Expo, a 1 year NACAT membership is included. That means you will be a member when registration opens for the 2021 Conference and qualify for the discounted member rate! The NACAT Board has worked very hard to bring you the best training value for your time and money. There is no other organization producing training for automotive instructors that is run by other instructors. NACAT is unique and we are very proud of that. I hope you will plan on joining us in July as we come together to advance our knowledge and skills, solve problems, and prepare our students for meaningful, rewarding , Board Chair careers.

Steve Gibson

Program Coordinator, K&N Engineering

“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.” - William Arthur Ward Summer 2020 | www.nacat.org |  7


Officer and Board Update

NACAT President

Fellow NACAT Members, As I sit down to write this update; daylight savings time is upon us in Chicago, and the spring semester is rapidly coming to a close. I hope everyone has enjoyed a productive school year. With the conclusion of the spring semester my focus begins to turn toward the annual NACAT conference. I am particularly excited about this year’s conference; as the NACAT organization has begun the process of rebranding itself. The Board and officers, led by the efforts of Jason Bronsther, have created an all new, modern logo for the organization. The logo represents the excitement and energy associated with the modern technology that we are tasked with teaching to the future of our industry. The logo is just a beginning. We are working very hard to increase membership, reimagine our conference, and provide you the tools you need to have a better classroom experience with your students. Stay tuned as we move forward in this process. The conference this year will be held at the Cincinnati Marriot at River Center in Covington, KY. This location is across the Ohio River from the Cincinnati Central Business District and about 14 minutes from the airport. The conference will utilize space in the hotel for the technical classes and the Expo will be held in the convention center across the street. The new conference format will include two lunch sessions that will have great food and excellent information. As always, the valve cover races will be held at the BBQ; tune up those wheels and be ready to race! If you have not done so already, reserve your room at the Marriot and register for the conference. We are looking forward to seeing all of our NACAT family at this year’s conference. We are especially excited to see those members who were unable to travel to Calgary last summer. If you have not done so already, share the conference information with a fellow instructor. It is always exciting to see our NACAT family grow. Lastly, know that it is the goal of NACAT to be an organization for teachers that is run by teachers. We would love to have your involvement. There are opportunities to run for Board and officer positions each year. I look forward to seeing everyone in July,

Curt Ward, President Share Updates, Submit Articles! Do you have an update on a member you would like to share? Information on great or interesting happenings at a school, on a new restoration, congratulations that should be wished or condolences given? We want to hear from you! Please e-mail any submissions to nacatnews@nacat.org. Editorial privilege is implied.

Be certain to follow NACAT’s social media activity: Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/NACAT4autoteachers Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/nacat_automotive Linkedin: http://www.linkedin.com/groups/North-American-Council-Automotive-Teachers-7474530 NACAT Family on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/groups/1444881022460669/ Twitter: https://www.twitter.com/Official_NACAT YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/officialNACAT 8  NACAT News


Article: Social Distancing

Continued from page 3 Introduction

The influenza pandemic of 1918 had been regarded as the deadliest pandemic in history. It had caused an estimated 50 to 100 million deaths worldwide [1, 2]. Due to its exceptional lethality and unusual epidemiological features, an in-depth understanding of the 1918 pandemic could provide insights to future influenza pandemic control and intervention. The 1918 pandemic was characterized by multiple waves of mortality. In the United Kingdom, the pandemic took place as three distinct waves: the first wave in the summer 1918, the second wave in the autumn of the same year, and the third wave in the spring of 1919. Behavioral epidemiology of infectious diseases focuses on behavior of the individuals as a key factor to predict infection trajectories [3]. “Reactive social distancing” is a form of behavioral responses where individuals avoid potentially infectious contacts in response to available information on an ongoing epidemic or pandemic. Such behavioral responses could include avoiding mass gathering, putting on protective masks, actively maintaining personal hygiene and getting vaccinated [4]. However, the exact nature of behavioral responses could vary from disease to disease. Many previous studies investigated multiple waves of 1918 influenza pandemic. Merler et al. proposed co-infections as a determinant of multiple waves [5]. Several other studies have focused on identifying the underlying causes of multiple waves and the impact of behavioral responses [6–8]. He et al. showed that human behavioral response was a key factor that was responsible for the temporal changes in transmission rates of the three epidemic waves in England and Wales. They described the behavioral response in the form of a Power function which described the proportion of recent mortality over the whole population, and said response has the largest impact on the epidemic waves of weekly infections [6]. Poletti et al. studied the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic and concluded that human behavioral changes responding to the total number of infections could have a significant impact on the timing, dynamics and magnitude of the epidemic spread [7]. Bootsma and Ferguson modelled the behavioral responses in the form of the Hill function which described the number of mortality. They showed that the response could have a stronger impact on the weekly deaths than on the overall mortality [8]. These studies all pointed towards human behavioral responses being a key factor in the occurrence of multiple waves in the 1918 influenza pandemic. Although previous studies investigated the impact of behavioral responses on the 1918 influenza pandemic, many questions remain unanswered. The impact of reactive social distancing on the final epidemic size remains unknown. Previous studies which used an epidemic model that included a common set of parameters for different cities did not result in a good model fit. They also lacked a comparison of different forms of functions describing behavioral responses [6, 8]. In this study, we aimed to compare two mathematical functions of reactive social distancing: Power function, which is a function of the proportion of recent influenza mortality in a population, and Hill function, which is a function of recent influenza mortality. This manuscript is arranged as follows: we fitted our model with the same set of input parameters to the observed data in London boroughs, Birmingham and Liverpool. We applied those model parameter values obtained from fitting three cities to all 334 administrative units in England and Wales using population sizes of individual administrative units. We estimated the impact of reactive social distancing on the final epidemic size. In the S1 Appendix, we demonstrated theoretically how oscillations are induced by reactive social distancing. Methods Data We analysed data on weekly influenza deaths between June 29, 1918 and May 10, 1919 from 334 administrative units in London boroughs, Birmingham and Liverpool in England. These data are publicly available from UK Data Services [9]. Daily temperature data for the same time period are obtained from UK Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change, where they provided Central England temperature data (http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/download.html).

Continued on page 12 Summer 2020 | www.nacat.org |  9


Article: Micro-Teaching

Continued from page 6

StandarNasionalPendidikan to get the professional teaching certificate. In this program, most of the activities consist of workshop, teaching kits development, and micro-teaching. These activities are assumed to be the keys to reach teachers’ professionalism duties namely educating, teaching, guiding, facilitating, training, assessing and evaluating students. Additionally, the rationale behind those activities is to make student teachers of Teacher Professionalism Training Program experience a real situation of a proper teaching practice in a certain time allocation. In accordance with PermenRistekdiktiNumber 55 Year 2017 about teacher standard, it is mentioned that teaching practice is conducted in the form of micro-teaching in which the activities include: planning under the instructor’s guidance, conducting teaching process in the laboratory, giving evaluation and feedback, and giving enrichment/remedial. Currently, there are no technical instruction and micro-teaching sample available for automotive engineering education. The sample is needed to give a direction on how effective and efficient micro-teaching model should be like. Another reason is that if the micro teaching is not optimally conducted, the teacher professionalism training program will possibly result in failure in training and producing professional teachers. Therefore, the above elaborated problem should be overcome by a precise solution in order to keep the program successfully training and producing professional teachers as the end products. Regarding the previous discussion, the problems in this research can be formulated as (1) what kind of micro-teaching video that is appropriate for automotive engineering education; (2) how the student teachers of teacher professionalism training program respond to the developed video; and (3) how effective the micro-teaching video is. Furthermore, based on the formulated problems, the objectives of this research are: (1) to develop a micro-teaching video containing the proper model of teaching practices in automotive engineering field, (2) to find out the student teachers’ responses to the use of micro-teaching video as their learning media, and (3) to find out the effectiveness of the developed video as learning media in automotive engineering education. Teaching has a goal to help students learn. The teacher’s duties are to prepare and plan the students’ learning experience, to guide them to get through the planned learning experience so they can enhance their skills or ideas about the learned materials (Leighbody, 1968). Micro-teaching is one of the models of teaching or training practices. In the real context, teaching can consist of many actions, including the technical materials delivery, the use of methods, the use of media, learning guidance, motivation support, classroom management, assessment, and so forth. In other words, teaching is a very complex action. In consequence, to have and master the basic teaching skills, the student teachers should learn part by part. It means that each component of the skills should be learned separately and independently. That kind of learning process focusing on the basic teaching skills separately is what is meant by micro-teaching. Cooper & Allen (1971) and Mohan (2007) define micro-teaching as teaching situation made up in limited time and with few number of students, between 5 until 20 minutes with 3 up to 10 students, and followed by assessment or feedback given by supervisor or lecturer. Karckay and Sanli (2009) state that micro-teaching is a technique which can be used for various professional development. Micro-teaching is aimed at developing teaching skills. As specified by Steiner et al (2009), there are several steps in conducting micro-teaching such as: (a) preparation, (b) presentation, (c) video watching, (d) discussion and analysis, and (e) feedback. Moreover, Kumar (2008) states six stages of conducting micro teaching which are: (1) planning, (2) teaching, (3) giving feedback, (4) revising the plan based on the feedback, (5) teaching, and (6) giving feedback. Based on the explanations above, it can be concluded that micro-teaching is one of the teaching and training practice models conducted within a limited scope and simplified situation in order to develop basic teaching skills. The rationales of implementing micro-teaching in student teachers’ training are: (1) to solve the time limitation in traditional teaching training, (2) to break down the complex teaching skills into some parts so that they can be learned specifically and learned in turn, and (3) to expand the chance of teaching practice. Micro-teaching is similar to the real teaching, yet some aspects such as the number of students, time allocation, skills focus, basic competence, learning results and learning materials are all being limited. In other words, micro-teaching can be perceived as a real teaching experience but in a smaller scale. Furthermore, the important things for the teaching and learning process are teaching method and teaching media. Choosing a certain teaching method will affect the criteria of selecting the suitable teaching media, including the teaching goals, task types, expected students’ responses and mastery after the lesson end, teaching or learning context, and also students characteristics. Furthermore, one of the functions of teaching media is as an aid in teaching that can influence the teaching and learning

10  NACAT News

Continued on page 16


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Summer 2020 | www.nacat.org |  11


Continued from page 9

Article: Social Distancing Social Distancing

Behavioral functions are used to model how people reduce their exposure to potentially infectious contacts in response to the reported mortality during an influenza pandemic [6, 8]. In Eq (1), we described three forms of behavioral functions (B(W(t)) that could affect the transmission rates: the Power function [6], the Hill function [8] and the modified-Hill function. We denote the recent mortality as W(t), the total population size as N, and the intensity of behavioral response as κ or N/κ. We compared the Taylor series expansion of the Power function and the Hill function at W(0) = 0. We noted that the coefficient of W(t) in the Hill function, N/κ, is comparable to the κ in the Power function. They both indicated the intensity of behavioral responses which depended on the perceived risk of infection. Furthermore, we obtained a Modified-Hill function when we replaced κ with N/κ in the Hill function. The first two terms of the Taylor series expansion in the Power function and the modified-Hill function are identical. As shown in Fig 1, when is close to zero, the Taylor series expansion suggests that the Power function and the modified-Hill function lead to almost the same value. However, when the proportion of recent mortality gets larger, the value of the Power function approaches those of the Hill function. The key difference is whether W(t) is scaled by N or not, i.e. whether we are considering the proportion of recent mortality or the exact mortality. Fig 1. Simulation comparison of the three behavioral functions using the same parameter settings: N = 4000,000, κ = 1350. Black line, red dashed line and blue dotted line represent Power function, Hill function and modified-Hill function, respectively. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0180545.g001

Model We employed a simple Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model which included a behavioral function. Similar results were achieved if an additional “exposed” class is included [6]. The model is represented as follows: As in Eq (2), we assumed people behaved with reactive social distancing according to W, where such behavior could be described as an exponential function with decaying rate λ, which referred to the exponentially fading memories of information variables in behavioral epidemiology [4]. As in previous studies on the 1918 pandemic, we adopted the simplifying assumption that population size (N) is constant throughout the pandemic course, although this assumption is not realistic due to the large number of influenza mortality. The population sizes in London boroughs, Birmingham and Liverpool were approximately 4,484,523, 919,444 and 802,940 during the study period respectively. ϕ denotes the case-fatality ratio. Parameters γ, g and λ are rates at which individuals moved from one class to the next. γ−1 is the mean infectious period, fixed at four days [10]. g−1 is the mean time from loss-of-infectiousness to death, fixed at eight days. Thus, the mean duration from infection to death is 12 days [8]. λ−1 is the mean duration of delay in behavioral responses. Following [6], β(t) is the transmission rate function which takes the following form:

Continued on page 19 12  NACAT News


Article

Success with EASE: Who benefits from a STEM learning community? (Part I) By: Sabrina Solanki, Peter McPartlan, Di Xu, and Brian K. Sato Abstract

During the past few decades, there has been a nationwide push to improve performance and persistence outcomes for STEM undergraduates. As part of this effort, recent research has emphasized the need for focus on not only improving the delivery of course content, but also addressing the social-psychological needs of students. One promising intervention type that has been proposed as a multifaceted way to address both cognitive and social-psychological aspects of the learning process is the learning community. Learning communities provide students with opportunities to build a strong support system in college and are generally associated with increased student engagement and integration with campus systems and cultures. In this study, we examine the impact of a learning community intervention for first-year biological sciences majors, the Enhanced Academic Success Experience (EASE) program. Incoming freshmen are assigned to EASE based on their SAT (or ACT equivalent) Math score, a metric demonstrated to be a key predictor of student success in the program. We find that enrollment in EASE is correlated with higher STEM course grades; an increase of 0.25 (on a 0–4 point scale) in cumulative first-year GPA; and gains in non-academic outcomes, such as measures of sense of belonging and academic integration. Further, these outcomes are more pronounced for particular subgroup populations. For example, whereas surveyed male students seemed to benefit academically from participating in a learning community, female students reported a greater sense of belonging in regard to the biological sciences major and reported higher values for behavioral indicators of academic integration. Lastly, we find that the EASE program is positively correlated with students’ intention to stay in the biological sciences major. And, among the three race-oriented groups, this impact is most pronounced for under-represented students. In light of these findings, we discuss the potential of discipline-specific learning community programs to improve academic outcomes for students most at risk of leaving STEM majors, such as students underprepared for college level coursework.

Continued on page 18 About the Authors

Sabrina Solanki • Roles: Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Methodology, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing • Affiliations: School of Education, University of California, Irvine, United States of America Peter McPartlan • Roles: Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Methodology, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing • Affiliation: School of Education, University of California, Irvine, United States of America Di Xu • Roles: Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Methodology, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing • Affiliation: School of Education, University of California, Irvine, United States of America Brian K. Sato • Roles: Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Project administration, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing • Affiliation: Department of Molecular Biology and Biochemistry, University of California, Irvine, United States of America This article is being reprinted with permission under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The license can be viewed at: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Citation: Solanki S, McPartlan P, Xu D, Sato BK (2019) Success with EASE: Who benefits from a STEM learning community? PLoS ONE 14(3): e0213827. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0213827

Summer 2020 | www.nacat.org |  13


The Electric and Hybrid Electric Vehicle Corner By Curt Ward

Low Voltage Systems On an electric or hybrid electric vehicle the 12 volt battery can be one of the most overlooked electric systems on the vehicle. In this month’s article we are going to explore the low voltage battery system and the diagnostics associated with it. The heart of the low voltage system is the 12 volt battery. Every hybrid and electric vehicle in production today has a low voltage battery. In many case the battery is not located under the hood. Instead it is in the trunk, or under a seat. Out of sight generally translates into out of mind when it comes to maintenance and diagnosis. If the battery is not under the hood, it is most likely an AGM (Absorbed Glass Mat) design. The primary purpose of the low voltage battery is to provide the needed energy to power up the high voltage system. It is also responsible for the balance of the 12 volt systems such as light, wipers, etc. The typical low voltage battery is smaller than a conventional gasoline engine vehicle because it is not used to energize the starter motor. As such, it lasts longer and is not considered when there is a charging system problem. When testing an AGM design 12 volt battery specific procedures should be followed to ensure accuracy and to ensure the battery is not damaged. A CATIII multimeter should be used when measuring system voltage. This type of multimeter must be used with meter leads that also meet the CATIII standard. An AGM battery should be charged to 12.5 volts at 68° F (20°C) before testing. Before testing the 12 volt battery on a hybrid or electric vehicle, make sure the correct battery has been installed in the vehicle. Many times, a battery “that fits” is installed due to the cost of an AGM design battery. When load testing the 12 volt battery a conductance meter, such as a Midtronics meter, must be used to ensure the test is completed correctly. A typical carbon-pile type tester may damage the battery. If the battery must be recharged, a battery charger with an AGM setting needs to be used. A typical AGM battery must be charged at a rate of between 4-5 amps and over a period of 10-12 hours. A battery charger without an AGM setting may provide a voltage and amperage above the rated vales which will result in damage to the battery. There is not an alternator on most hybrid and electric vehicles. Instead, the 12 volt battery is charged by the DC-DC converter. The DC-DC converter steps the voltage from the high voltage battery down to the desired level. If diagnostics need to be performed on the DC-DC converter because the 12 volt battery is being under charged, the use of personal protective equipment must be used. When diagnosing a trouble code in the DC-DC converter for an undercharging condition, begin by making sure the correct vehicle is installed in the vehicle. The use of a flooded battery in place of an AGM design may cause a trouble code in a DC-DC converter. If the 12 volt battery is dead, it is likely the vehicle will not unlock remotely or the transmission may not come out of park. Follow the procedures for correctly gaining access to the battery or the remote battery connection location so that the correct battery charger can be connected. These vehicles cannot be “jump started” like a conventional gasoline engine vehicle. As hybrid and electric vehicles age, it is not uncommon for the 12 volt batteries to become weak and fail. The 12 volt battery should be tested as part of a routine inspection each time the engine oil on a hybrid vehicle is changed. The 12 volt battery on an electric vehicle should be tested after three years and every year after that. With the correct equipment and the proper service information, the battery can be tested and replaced if needed, before the condition results in the need for a flat-bed tow truck.

“He who opens a school door, closes a prison.” - Victor Hugo 14  NACAT News


See you in Northern Kentucky at NACAT #WhatsInTheToolBox

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Summer 2020 | www.nacat.org |  15


Continued from page 10

Article: Micro-Teaching

process planned and carried out by teachers (Azhar, 2005). Meanwhile, Gagne in Sadiman (2007) defines media as various components in students surrounding which can stimulate them to learn. Moreover, Briggs (1970) states that media is any kind of physical tools which can present message and stimulate students to learn. Books, films, cassettes, and frame films are several examples of teaching media. Heinich, et al in Azhar (2002) provides the term ‘medium’ as a mean to deliver information from the source to the recipient. Teaching media have some general characteristics such as (1) teaching media, seeing from its physical form, is known as hardware, a thing that can be seen, heard, or touch by human’s senses; (2) teaching media as non-physical form is called as software, the essential information within the hardware which is delivered to the students; (3) the media are mostly in the form of visual and audio content; (4) teaching media are helping tools for the learning process either inside or outside the classroom; (5) teaching media serve as communication and interaction tools between teacher and students during the teaching and learning process; (6) teaching media can be used massively in large and small group or even individually; (7) teaching media can refer to the attitude, act, organization, strategy and management related to the implementation of knowledge. Video as teaching media is a complex tool since the information delivery is more communicative compared to that of picture. The information presented in the video is perceived as a whole portrayal that illustrates the real condition. Video provides several advantages which will be very useful to be used in the teaching and learning process (Apri, 2017). One of the advantages of video as teaching media is that it can show movements or events which can be slowed or fast forwarded. The criteria of selecting teaching media should be based on the belief that media is a part of the whole instructional system as stated by Dick and Carey in Sadiman (2002: 86). There are several factors to determine the choice of teaching media. They are (1) the limitation of local resource, which means that if the teaching media are not available nearby, they have to be bought or made by hand, (2) there should be budget, workers, and facilitation if the media need to be bought or self-made, (3) other factors related to flexibility, practicality, and endurance of the teaching media to be used in a long time. It means that the media can be used anywhere and anytime by making use of any available equipment in surrounding, and should be easily carried and moved; and (4) the effectiveness of the media to be used in the long time. The micro teaching study by Karckay and Sanli (2009) tested the impact of micro teaching application to improve teaching competence of student teachers. The study was experimental research using pretest and post-test design yet without the existence of controlled group. The result of the study showed that the activity in the micro-teaching can have effect on student teachers’ teaching competence. The study on the use of video recording for student teachers training program was also conducted by Koc (2011). The study was conducted by dividing the group of micro-teaching practice and analyzing every recording of the micro teaching processes. The results of the study showed that the training on student teachers using video analysis were able to improve their motivation and empathy, and build professional identity of the participants. Another study of micro-teaching model integrated with social media as teaching media was conducted by Apri (2007). The results of the study showed that there was improvement in teaching competences of student teachers in several aspects such as lesson plan making, assessment during the teaching action, and personality assessment. Method This research was Research and Development which followed a model of ADDIE consisting of five stage namely analysis, design, development, implementation, and evaluation. This model was chosen because it has been used widely in developing various teaching media. The research was conducted in Automotive Engineering Education Department of Engineering Faculty of Yogyakarta State University. The subjects of the research were the micro-teaching instructors as validators and the student teachers of Teacher Professionalism Training Program in Automotive Engineering Education Department of Engineering Faculty of Yogyakarta State University as the research subjects. The research data were collected by means of several instruments such as: (1) questionnaires which were used to get validation from the media and materials experts, and students’ responses, (2) observation sheet as guidelines in observing the micro-teaching process, (3) interview to gather the supporting data. The data analysis used was quantitative descriptive analysis. The research focused on the development of micro-teaching video as the learning media for the student teachers of Teacher Professionalism Training Program in Automotive Engineering Education Department. The stages of the development are elaborated in Table 1. Continued on page 20

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Continued from page 13

Article: EASE Introduction

A considerable number of studies in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) education research fields have focused on improving outcomes for undergraduate students using two intervention types: interventions that impact content delivery both inside and outside the classroom and those that address social-psychological aspects of the student experience. Examples of interventions include the incorporation of active learning strategies [1–3], the structuring of at-home activities that help students prepare for class [4–5], and values-affirmation writing exercises [6–7]. Interventions of this nature have been developed in response to nationwide concern regarding the low persistence of STEM undergraduates in their academic majors—an issue that disproportionately impacts underrepresented minority (URM) students, low-income students, and first-generation college-going students [8]. Another tactic used to improve STEM outcomes has been to alter the college student experience at the program or institutionwide level. Examples of interventions utilizing this model include summer bridge programs, structured independent research experiences, and STEM learning centers [9–13]. In the same vein are learning community programs, the focus of the present study. Learning communities are intentionally designed to increase opportunities for students to interact with peers, faculty, and the curriculum, which allows for the construction of a strong support system. A number of studies have found a positive correlation between participation in a learning community and traditional academic markers of success, also finding positive outcomes for students most at risk for leaving college, such as students underprepared for college-level coursework [14–15]. Unlike the majority of studies about learning communities, the present study is unique in that it examines whether a learning community can be particularly beneficial within a specific discipline—the biological sciences—and therefore has the potential to contribute to the small but growing body of work on learning communities in STEM education. Learning Communities Learning communities, at its core, promote peer-to-peer and student-faculty interaction and provide students with a number of opportunities to build a strong support system. The majority Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid, and ElEctric VEHiclE of learning communities incorporate active and collaborative learning activities (e.g., students co-enrolling in courses) and promote involvement in complementary academic and social ACDC is your place for: activities that extend beyond the classroom (e.g., students meet • Safety Equipment • Books and Training Aids weekly in a study skills course and/or with a group mentor). • Live Webinars • Tools and Equipment Faculty involved in learning communities are encouraged • Used EMV Parts • Used Hybrid/EV Vehicles to use active pedagogical strategies that foster meaningful ACDC hAs A DEDICATED TRAINING FACILITY interaction between students and instructors. They are also Do you have a new Instructor? We offer 3-day, 5-day, and 7-day TRAIN-THE-TRAINER Classes. encouraged to engage with one another and think about ways to support student learning outcomes [15]. All of these AsE L3 sTuDY GuIDE Our ASE L3 Hybrid Study Guide includes practice components build institutionalized social support networks test and webinar. Get your students ready for ASE that subsequently buttress academic support systems [15– L3 certification, enabling them to work on hybrid 26]. and electric vehicles. Continued on page 22

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Article: Social Distancing

where the four components are described as follows: 1. β0 is the constant baseline transmission rate. 2. e−ξT(t) is the term representing the temperature effect, T(t) is the daily time series for temperature, where we simulated from the weekly time series obtained from UK Met Office. The parameter ξ describes the intensity of the temperature effect. 3. [1 + αH(t)] is the school term factor. It has an amplitude parameter α and a school day function H(t). H(t) is a step function that takes a large value on school days and a small value on holidays [6]. Easter and Christmas holidays are known. The summer vacation period (t1, t2), which are unknown, has to be estimated. During the 1910’s, a large number of adults and school children were involved in summer harvesting. Thus there were an impact on influenza transmission [6]. 4. The last factor is the human behavioral term B(W(t);κ, N) that is expressed differently for the Power function, Hill function and modified-Hill function. W(t) denotes the recent influenza mortality. κ or N/κ represent the intensity of human behavioral response towards the perceived risk of influenza infection. Finally, we define the basic reproductive number with W(t) = 0. We have W = 0 at disease-free equilibrium [6]. Since the temperature effect is on average smaller than one, we have . However, we chose to estimate the effective reproductive number, , instead. is defined as the average number of secondary case of infection per primary case at time t [11]. It is more appropriate to use than R0 in this study because we need to estimate the final epidemic size, which reflects the depletion of susceptible individuals under reactive social distancing. We have [12]. An indicates that the epidemic is under control. Modelling Framework We fit the model as described in Fig 2 to the reported weekly influenza deaths from the three largest cities: London boroughs, Birmingham and Liverpool during the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic. We further modelled for all 334 administrative units in England and Wales by incorporating their respective population sizes (N), and using the epidemiological parameters of the three cities. A key difference from previous models by Bootsma and Ferguson [8] and He et al. [6] is that they used distinct parameters for different administrative units. By using a common set of parameters, we greatly reduced the number of free parameters and computational time in our work. Previous studies showed that the transmissibility during the pandemic showed little spatial variations [13, 14], thus our assumption is also biologically plausible. We simulated the epidemic dynamics in Eq (2) using the Partially Observed Markov Process model (POMP, also known as Hidden Markov Model) within a plug-and-play framework [15]. Using the iterated filtering method [16, 17], we computed the maximum likelihood estimate of the following parameters: baseline transmission rate (β0), casefatality ratio (ϕ), impact of school term (α), impact of air temperature (ξ), intensity of reactive social distancing (κ), decay rate of reactive social distancing (λ), and school term start date (t1) and end date (t2). We used Euler-multinomial Fig 2. Schematic diagram showing the transmission dynamics during algorithm with a fixed daily time step and incorporated the an influenza pandemic. S, I and R denote the number of susceptible, daily temperature and school dates for model-fitting. We infectious, and recovered individuals, respectively; D denotes the number accounted for measurement noise and used negative of infected individuals who are no longer infectious and are progressing binomial process to compute the maximum log-likelihood to death in influenza or pneumonia causes; M denotes the cumulative number of influenza-related deaths; and W denotes recent influenza (See S1 Text for details). The POMP model has been widely mortality, a proxy indicator for the perception of pandemic severity. used in infectious diseases modelling studies, including https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0180545.g002 Ebola, cholera, malaria, influenza, as well as studies in finance and ecological dynamics [15, 18–35]. The POMP package in R was implemented (http://kingaa.github.io/pomp/).

Continued on page 23 Summer 2020 | www.nacat.org |  19


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Article: Micro-Teaching

Results and Discussions The assessment on the micro-teaching video was one by the experts of media and materials. The assessment for media expert was performed on three aspects, namely format, content, and language. On these three aspects, the product was categorized as “very good/ appropriate” with the mean score 4.88 for format aspect, 5.00 for content aspect, and 4.80 for language aspect. Moreover, the assessment done by the materials expert resulted the mean score 4.67 categorized as “very good/appropriate”. Before implementing the micro-teaching video in real practices, the participants’ opinion regarding the format, content, and language of the video was gathered by questionnaires. Based on their responses, all of the aspects was categorized as “very good/ appropriate” with the mean score 3.70 in format aspect, 4.50 in content aspect and 4.30 in language aspect. Thus, based on the media expert, materials expert, and students’ responses, the micro-teaching video can be categorized as an appropriate and excellent learning medium.

The product’s evaluation was then continued by conducting try-out to see the effectiveness of the Table 1: Developmental Stages of ADDIE Model. developed video in improving the targeted student teachers’ teaching skills. In the first try out, the student teachers conducted teaching practices as usual and the instructor observed them and scored them. Their average score of their practices on the first try-out was 77,26. Furthermore, on the second try-out, the instructor played the micro-teaching video before the student teachers started their teaching practices. They were asked to pay attention to, listen to, and observe the video containing the appropriate sample of teaching practices that meet the teaching and learning requirements based on the arranged lesson plan. After they had done the observation, one by one they conducted the teaching practice under the guidance of the instructor. Based on the assessment results through observation, there was an improvement on their teaching practices after they watched the video compared to those before they watched the video. As for information, they did not watch the video on the first try-out. They watched the video on the second try-out and then implemented what they had seen as the learning reference for the micro-teaching. Furthermore, there was an improvement on the assessment result. In the second try-out, their average of teaching practice score increased to 83.59. Both experts of media and materials agreed that the micro-teaching video as micro teaching media for the student teachers of Teacher Professionalism Training Program of Automotive Engineering Department was appropriate to be used as learning media. This result was inline with the major role of teaching and learning media as an aid for the teacher to help any kind of teaching and learning process, one of which is the micro-teaching process. The result of this research also highlighted that micro-teaching video has fulfilled the three types of media feasibility which are practicality, technicality, and affordability (LPPPMP, 2016). The main components in micro teaching media consist of basic teaching skills such: (1) the skills of opening and ending the lesson, (2) explaining the materials, (3) giving reinforcement, (4) using media and tools or learning, (5) arranging learning scenarios, (6) varying the lesson, (7) guiding discussion, (8) managing the class, (9) giving questions, and (10) conducting the evaluation (LPPMP, 2016). Those basic teaching skills were presented in the micro-teaching video to help the student teachers learn and repeat the video as well as understand how the skills are applied in the real instructional practices.

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Article: EASE

The positive impacts of learning communities such as the Meyerhoff Scholars Program [27] and Posse Foundation programs [28] exemplify the important role social integration plays in academic success, which long-standing theories of college persistence have espoused [29–30]. As documented in literature from the past two decades, a common measure of students’ social integration is sense of belonging, which is based on perceived social support, connectedness, and mattering [31]. The ways in which sense of belonging is associated with persistence have become increasingly apparent, with research detailing that it is positively linked to students’ motivation [31–33], engagement [34], and achievement [35]. Thus, it has become clear that the potential of learning communities to further students’ sense of belonging is one of the defining components of this intervention type [36]. Extant Literature Prior research has documented that first-year students who participate in learning communities have higher grades, retention rates, and self-reported levels of engagement than their peers who have not had a learning community experience. Further, learning community students report studying more with peers outside of class and becoming more involved in academic activities [19; 22–26]. Zhao and Kuh [26], for example, used the National Survey of Student Engagement—a survey widely used to assess the quality of the undergraduate college experience—to estimate the impact of learning communities on a myriad of student outcomes. Learning community participation was positively associated with a number of outcomes related to student engagement, such as academic effort, academic integration, and collaborative learning. Learning community participants were also more likely to interact with faculty members. Lastly, students in learning communities reported being more satisfied with their college experience as compared to students who did not participate in learning communities. For student outcomes, effect sizes ranged from 0.23 to 0.60. Thus, even though the authors note limitations to the study, the moderate correlations documented in their paper substantiate the idea that learning communities are a powerful support structure that can impact the overall student experience in college. The most rigorous evaluation of learning communities to date comes from a recent report by MDRC [37]. Using random assignment, MDRC evaluated the impacts of a one-semester learning community program on students assigned to developmental English classes at six different community colleges. In general, the study failed to find any consistent evidence that learning communities positively influenced students’ college persistence and academic performance. A number of plausible reasons could explain these null effects. Students participating in the learning community programs this study assessed came from a variety of fields. The lack of common interests and goals represented could have substantially weakened the connections between students and sense of belonging, a major component of learning communities that is often cited as being highly correlated to student academic progress and retention decisions. Also, all six programs’ interventions lasted only one semester, and programs included only one component of a learning community: paired courses. It is important to note, however, that the MRDC study makes a unique contribution to the literature about learning communities, as it is the only learning community study to use the gold standard in research design: randomization of participants for treatment and control conditions. Findings can therefore be viewed as having a causal interpretation, which is important because they therefore shed light on the possibility that correlational studies, most of which have shown positive impacts, could be over-stating the benefits of participating in a learning community program. The implications of using correlational research design in relation to the present study is discussed in the last section of this paper. Most published learning community studies were implemented for the general population of first-year college students or for those in developmental education programs, such as MDRC [37]. Only a small number were implemented in STEM programs. The nature of STEM programs, however, makes students well-positioned to reap the benefits of a learning community. This is because students in STEM programs often face discouragement and a loss of confidence due to initially low grades; they experience the weakening of morale as a result of competitive STEM culture and the generally unwelcoming atmosphere of STEM courses. Further, students are often overwhelmed by STEM’s rigorous curriculum, fast-paced instruction, demand for independent work, and content overload in courses taught by often unengaging STEM faculty [38,39]. In contrast, inclusive learning communities provide academic support and are headed by faculty interested in effective instruction and strong student-instructor relationships, indicating that these communities can foster positive student development in STEM.

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Article: Social Distancing

We performed model fittings of the POMP package on workstations. We transformed all parameters into the range (−∞, ∞), by taking logarithm on all positive parameters, or using the logistic function to the parameters that have values between 0 and 1. We used the Iterated Filtering method for multiple times to achieve convergence of model fitting. At each iteration, the current estimates were used as the initial parameter values to ensure that the log-likelihood is improved at each iteration. In order to check that the maximum log-likelihood is indeed a true global maximum, we chose to fix each parameter at several points (e.g. 20 points) across a wide range of values and perform iterated filtering on other parameters. This step yielded the maximum log likelihood as a function of this parameter. Consequently, we achieved convergence of the maximization on smooth maximization profiles. The likelihood-based inference framework is further discussed in S1 Text and S1 Fig. Some oscillations induced by reactive social distancing are discussed in S1 Appendix. Results Baseline Fitting Results Fig 3 shows the best-fitting simulation models using three different behavioral functions, i.e. a model with the Power function (Fig 3(a)–3(c)), the Hill function (Fig 3(d)–3(f)) and the modified-Hill function (Fig 3(h)–3(j)). The inset panels show the log-likelihood profile of each model as a function of the parameter κ. Since the number of parameters of the three models are the same, their maximum log-likelihoods (MLL) could be directly compared. The MLLs for the Power function, the Hill function and the modified-Hill function are -596.12, -659.58 and -596.34, respectively. Since a larger MLL indicates a better model fit, and the Power function and the modified-Hill function have very similar goodness-of-fit levels, we concluded that these two functions provided the best model choice in this study. Fig 3. Simulation comparisons of the weekly influenza mortality during the 1918 pandemic in London boroughs, Birmingham and Liverpool. We modelled using three different behavioral functions: (a-c) Power function, (d-f) Hill function, and (g-i) modified-Hill function. Bold blue line: reported cases; thin red line: simulation median. The shaded area indicates the 95% confidence interval. The inset panels show the profile log-likelihood as a function of κ. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0180545.g003

Previous studies assumed key parameters such as Ro and κ to be different for each city in order to achieve the best model fit [6, 8]. In contrast, our model uses a common set of parameters (i.e. same κ and Ro in the three cities) but different population sizes and initial conditions for each of the three cities. Of these models, the Power function and the modified-Hill function demonstrated good model fit (Fig 3). Fig 4 (page 27) compares the three behavioral functions with the maximum likelihood estimates of κ. The Power function and the modified-Hill function largely overlaps, but the Hill function clearly deviates from the other two functions.

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“You’re in pretty good shape for the shape you are in.” - Dr. Seuss Summer 2020 | www.nacat.org |  23


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Article: Micro-Teaching

In addition, the positive responses given by the student teachers towards the use of the developed video were also a sign that this media categorized as appropriate. The responses also indicated that the micro-teaching video has fulfilled the criteria of appropriate media which are easy to use, can be used repeatedly, and contain audio, visual, and kinesthetic elements (Selss and Glasgow, 1990). The developed video was also assumed to effectively improve the student teachers’ teaching skills, which is similar to the result of the study conducted by Apri (2017). The study showed the competence improvement of student teachers in the process of lesson plan making, assessing the teaching and learning process, and assessing personality. Another study by Koc (2011) also presented the similar result where the use of video analysis during the student teachers’ training education could improve their motivation and empathy, and build professional identity. Empirically, through the teaching and learning video, the student teachers had chance to learn and experience how to teach according to the teaching principles such as how to open and end the class properly, how to explain the lesson materials, and how to evaluate the learning process. All of these were presented in the video. It is expected that the student teachers seriously pay attention, observe, and imitate or even implement what they watch in their micro-teaching practice. It is also expected that they can educate themselves independently through the phase of seeing, listening, and implementing. As stated by Biggs and Tang (2007), learning to listen, if it is combined with learning to observe, will result in 50% understanding. If they combine it with learning to use and do it in the real life, their understanding will reach 80%. Those understanding will steadily improve until the highest level which is 90% if they share what they have learned to others. Conclusions Based on the data analysis and previous discussion, some conclusions can be drawn as follows. • The micro-teaching video illustrating the steps of appropriate teaching model such as arranging lesson plan, learning materials, media, and evaluation instruments; presenting the teaching set; and conducting the micro teaching is successfully made. The video is developed so that it can be used classically by lecturer or instructor in the classroom or independently by student teachers. Each learning material is presented as interesting as possible to improve the student teachers’ motivation. Furthermore, based on the analysis results, video as micro teaching media categorized as very good/appropriate by the experts on media and materials. The average mean score of the media seeing from the three aspects was 4.89. Meanwhile, 4.67 was that of the materials aspect. • The student teacher’s gave positive responses towards the use of micro-teaching video as learning media. During the try out, the obtained average mean score was 4.20, categorized as very good/appropriate to be used in the teaching and learning process. • Micro-teaching video can effectively enhance the student teachers’ teaching skills during their practices in Teacher Professionalism Training Program. That is supported by a fact that their micro-teaching mean score was improved from 77.26 in the first try out to 83.59 in the second try out. Thus, it can be concluded that video as micro teaching media was very effective to be used for the teaching and learning process since it can help the student teachers successfully train their teaching skills. References 1. Apri Nuryanto. (2017). Model Microteaching Terintegrasi dengan Media Jejaring Sosial. Disertasi. Yogyakarta: PPs UNY. 2. AzharArsyad, (2002). Media Pembelajaran. Jakarta: PT Raja Grafido Persada. 3. Briggs, J., & Tang, C. (2007). Teaching for quality learning at university: what the student does, 3 rd edition. New York: McGraw-Hill. 4. Cooper and Allen, 1971. Basic Teaching Skills. London: Oxford University Press. 5. Fry, H., Ketteridge, S., & Marshall,S. (2011). A. Handbook for teaching and learning in higher education: enhancing academic practice, third edition.New York: Taylor & Francis.

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Article: Social Distancing Fig 4. Comparison among the values of three behavioral functions with their best-fitted Îş. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0180545.g004

Fig 5 shows the estimated daily reproductive number R0 (thin red curve) and the effective reproductive number, Reff (blue bold curve). Since we assumed all input parameters to be identical, the estimated daily reproductive numbers were identical in all three cities. We set W = 0, therefore fluctuations in daily reproductive numbers can only be due to changes in school terms and daily temperature. For the effective reproductive number, we used the estimated W(t) and the susceptibles, S(t). Thus Reff is different between the cities. When Reff is different from 1, the mortality curve changes with a time lag of about 12 days. We summarised all parameters estimated in the best-fit model that uses a Power function in Table 1. All parameter values are largely biologically reasonable [6, 8]. Thus, we found a model with common parameter values in all three cities. The only differences are in the population sizes and the initial conditions, where we denoted the initial susceptible population and initial population size to be S0 and I0, respectively. The estimated initial conditions were similar among the three cities. Fig 5. Estimated daily basic reproductive number Ro (thin red curve), effective reproductive number Reff (bold blue curve) and weekly influenza mortality (shaded region). The average basic reproductive number is 3.24 in the three cities. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0180545.g005

Table 1. Summary of all parameters estimated in the best-fit model using the Power function. Distinct parameters could have different values for the three cities. Common parameters have the same values for all three cities. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0180545.t001

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Article: EASE

The few studies about learning communities in STEM education show positive impacts. In Dagley et al. [18], for example, researchers evaluated the EXCEL program, a first-year learning community for STEM students at the University of Central Florida. In addition to offering traditional learning community components, EXCEL gives participants the option to live together in on-campus residential housing, which appears to be beneficial since, in this particular context, a number of social interactions brought faculty and students to the residential space to engage in informal activities. When Dagley et al. [18] compared the learning outcomes of EXCEL participants to those of a comparison group of students who had declared a STEM major and had the same standardized test math score range, they found that first-year retention, long-term retention, and graduation rates were higher for the EXCEL cohorts than for the comparison group. Specifically, retention of students in a STEM major was 43% higher for program participants than for the comparison group. Further, female, African-American, and Hispanic individuals in the program were correlated with higher retention and graduation rates than similar comparison students. The Present Study In this study, we evaluate the Enhanced Academic Success Experience (EASE) program, a learning communities program implemented in the school of biological sciences at a large university in the Western United States, the University of California, Irvine. Specifically, we explore whether the benefits learning communities offer at the college level and for first-year students can have similar impact when a learning community is instituted within a specific field of study, such as biological sciences. Within learning community literature, only a few programs have been implemented and evaluated in STEM fields, as noted earlier. However, these studies have shown that learning communities can play an important role in fostering an early sense of engagement and institutional identification [40], which can be especially important as students face the challenges inherent in STEM courses of study [41]. We also focus our efforts on evaluating the ways in which the EASE program impacts certain subgroups. For example, learning communities may especially affect the academic performance and persistence of underrepresented populations in college, such as first-generation college students. First-generation college students have parents who have not attained a four-year college degree and often come from families with fewer financial resources, in addition to having attended lower quality high schools than their continuing-generation peers. As a result, many begin their college career requiring additional academic support and are uncertain about how to successfully navigate the college experience [42]. The support system a learning community provides therefore has the potential to reduce socioeconomic achievement gaps in college. Learning communities also provide students with an environment that fosters feelings of belonging. Indeed, upon their arrival in college underrepresented populations are prone to feeling a lack of belongingness, which is an important component of social integration and predictor of persistence [31,36,43]. Cultural Mismatch Theory has offered an explanation for why underrepresented populations, such as first-generation students, are more prone to experience this phenomenon. First proposed by Stephens, Fryberg, Markus, Johnson, and Covarrubias [44], Cultural Mismatch Theory illuminates the stark contrast between the community-oriented values typical of first-generation students and the values of the university environment. Specifically, it purports that individual performance is contingent upon whether people experience a match or a mismatch between their own cultural norms and the norms that are institutionalized in a given setting. First-generation and low-income students often come from working-class communities that value interdependence and attention paid to others, yet higher education culture emphasizes independence and competition [38,44]. This contrast is especially evident in competitive STEM disciplines and can make first-generation students especially likely to perform poorly and drop out. First-generation URM students must also combat additional belongingness issues, as they are likely to react negatively when encountering challenges in college, interpreting them as evidence that they do not belong at their institution or within their major [45]. In promoting social support, learning communities may be capable of improving belongingness for underrepresented groups [36]. Continued on page 31

“Keep away from people who try to belittle your ambitions. Small people always do that, but the really great makes you feel that you, too, can become great.� - Mark Twain

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Article: Social Distancing

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Impact of Reactive Social Distancing As the goodness-of-fit of the models were similar between the Power function and the modified-Hill function, we chose the Power function for further exploration of the theoretical impacts of reactive social distancing on the pandemic. The theoretical impact depends on the intensity parameter (κ) and the decay parameter (λ). We introduced the final epidemic size (Z) and the weekly mortality which reflect the magnitude of the pandemic. The basic reproductive number R0 is the key epidemiological parameter in infectious disease transmission. It is defined as the average number of secondary cases arising from an average primary case in an entirely susceptible population [36]. If , the disease will spread. However, if R0 < 1, the disease will not spread [37]. The final epidemic size is the proportion of a population who have been infected during an epidemic. It is determined when the epidemic ends and there are no more infectious individuals in the population. Suppose s(∞) is the proportion of susceptible at the end of the epidemic. Then the final size of the epidemic can be defined as 1 − s(∞). Without human behavioral intervention, s(∞) is the root of the final-size equation [38, 39], Therefore, the final epidemic size can be calculated as follows: With the inclusion of the behavioral term, the effective reproductive number is smaller, which leads to a smaller final epidemic size. However, a closed-form solution could not be obtained, and numerical simulation is needed. Figs 6 and 7 show the simulation results of the impact of the behavioral term on the final epidemic size and weekly mortality, respectively. Fig 6. Contour plots of the cumulative number of deaths with R0=1.5 (panel a) and R0=2 (panel b). N = 2,000,000, S0 = 0.8N, I0 = 100, g−1 = 8, γ−1 = 4, ϕ = 0.01. κ represents the intensity of reactive social distancing behavior, and λ represents the rate of decay of reactive social distancing behavior. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal. pone.0180545.g006

Continued on page 30 Fig 7. Cumulative number of weekly mortality using different values of κ and λ. With N = 2,000,000, S0 = 0.8N, I0 = 100, g−1 = 8, γ−1 = 4 and ϕ = 0.01, the effects of κ and λ on the simulated weekly mortalities are shown in panels (a) and (b) respectively. In panels (a), we fixed λ−1 = 10 days, and the cumulative weekly mortalities are 16% smaller when we have κ = 10,000 than κ = 1,000. In panel (b), when we fixed κ = 10,000, the cumulative weekly mortalities will be 27% smaller when we have λ−1 = 5 days than λ−1 = 20 days. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal. pone.0180545.g007

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Article: Micro-Teaching

6. Karckay, A.T., & Sanli, S. (2009). The effect of microteaching application on the preservice teachers’teacher competency levels. Jurnal Procedia Social and Behavioural Sciences I, 844-847. 7. Koc M. (2011). Let’s make a movie: investigating pre-service teacher’ reflection on using video-recorded role playing cases in Turkey. Teaching and Teacher Education 27, 95-106. 8. Kumar, S. (2008, Nopember 2015). Educational technology. Retrieved Oktober 12, 2011, from Introduction to microteaching: http://sathitech.blogspot.com/2008/11/introduction-to-mikroteaching.html 9. Kyriacou., C. (2009) Effective teaching in shools, third edition: theory ang practice. Cheltenham: Stanley Thornes. 10. Leighbody, G.B. (1968). Method of teaching shop and technical subjects. New York: Delmar. 11. Lembaga Pengembangan dan Penjaminan Mutu Pendidikan (LPPMP), (2016). Pekerti Buku 1. Yogyakarta: UNY Press. 12. Mc. Laughin, S. And Moulton, J. (1975), Evaluating Performance Training Methods: A Manual for Teacher Trainer, UNESCO. 13. Mohan, R. (2007). Innovative science teaching for physical science teachers, 3rd ed. New Delhi: Prentice-Hall. 14. Peraturan Pemeritah No 19 Tahun 2007, tetangg Perubahan Peraturan Presiden No 74 Tahun 2008 tentang Guru, Pasal 8. 15. Sadiman, Arif.S. (2007). Media Pendidikan, Pengertian, Pengembangan,adan Pemanfaatannya. Jakarta: PT Raja Grafindo Persada. 16. Seels, B.B. dan Glasgow, Z. (1990). Exercises in Instructional Design. Columbus: Merril Publishing Company. 17. Steiner, T., Sonntag, H., & Bokonjic, D. (2009). Handbook of teaching and learning in medicine. Retrieved Juli 4, 2012, from manual of teaching and learning in medicine: http://www.bhmed-emanual.org 18. Undang-Undang No 14 Tahun 2005 Tentang Guru dan Dosen.

This article is being reprinted with permission under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License. The license can be viewed at: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ Citation: Sofyan H, Us T, Wakid M, & Sulistyo B (2018) Developing Micro-Teaching Video As Learning Media In Automotive Teacher Education. Journal of Physics: Conference Series, Volume 1273, International Conference on Vocational Education of Mechanical and Automotive Technology. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1742-6596/1273/1/012059/pdf

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Article: Social Distancing

Fig 7 shows the cumulative number of weekly mortality by varying the values of the intensity parameter (κ) and decay parameter (λ) in the behavioral term. In Fig 7(a), increasing κ from 1,000 to 10,000 generates oscillations in the simulated weekly mortalities. In Fig 7(b), by fixing κ at 10,000, λ serves as a tuning parameter which changes the frequency and duration of the oscillations. Applying the Model to 334 Administrative Units We applied our model with parameter values from fitting the three largest cities to all 334 administrative units in England and Wales. The only parameter we need to incorporate into this model are the population sizes of the administrative units. As the three cities had similar initial conditions, we used that of Liverpool’s. The results are displayed in Fig 8. We computed the Pearson’s correlations between the observed (Fig 8(a)) and simulated data that considers school term, temperature and behavioral changes (Fig 8(b)) for each administrative unit. The median correlation is 0.636. This shows that our model performs reasonably well in at least half of the 334 administrative units using only data from three major cities. Previous studies showed that the model fit is inadequate when the behavioral terms are removed, even if the cities are being fitted separately [6, 8]. In Fig 8(c), we set W = 0 and using other parameters from Fig 8(b), we show the simulation results of the 334 administrative units. The model can only yield the first two waves with the third wave missed. Furthermore, we compared the overall attack rates in the two scenarios: using all three factors, the estimated infection attack rate is about 28.5% (95% confidence interval (CI): 14.1%, 35.9%). Without behavioral changes, the estimated infection attack rate is about 40.8% (95% CI: 34.0%, 46.9%). Thus, there are substantial reduction in attack rates due to behavioral changes.

Fig 8. Comparison between the observed and simulated patterns of influenza mortality in 334 administrative units. (a) Observed data. (b) Simulated data that considers school term, temperature, and behavioral changes. (c) Without behavioral changes. Administrative units are ordered in descending population sizes from top to bottom. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal. pone.0180545.g008

We discussed the oscillations induced by reactive social distancing in S1 Appendix. We obtained an interesting linear relationship between the durations of behavioral reaction and the period of transient oscillations (S1 Appendix). Discussion and Conclusions Our study compared three forms of behavioral functions that described reactive social distancing, which assumes individuals either respond to the number of recent mortality or the proportion of mortality in the overall population. Using simple epidemic models to fit mortality cases in London boroughs, Birmingham and Liverpool, we showed the behavioral functions in the form of the Power function or the modified-Hill function outperformed the Hill function in terms of model fit. These results suggest that the proportion of mortality plays a more important role than the number of recent mortality.

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Article: EASE

The EASE Program The EASE program at the University of California, Irvine follows a learning communities model; it is a multi-faceted program that aims to improve freshman students’ performance and persistence in biological sciences. Eligibility is determined by the Department of Biological Sciences during the summer prior to the start of the school year. Specifically, all incoming freshmen with SAT (or ACT equivalent) Math scores of lower than 600 are enrolled in the EASE program. Administrators in the Biological Sciences department assign students to cohorts (roughly 25 students per cohort group for a total of sixteen cohorts) and adjust schedules accordingly so that student groups are enrolled in the same course section for all first-year STEM courses. EASE students are made aware of their EASE status at the summer Student-Parent Orientation Program (SPOP). EASE provides a number of ways for students to become integrated into campus culture and campus systems, both academically and socially [29–30]. Specifically, students in the EASE program are provided the following resources: 1. Academic remediation: EASE students are required to take an additional developmental chemistry course online the summer prior to college matriculation. This course is designed to prepare biological sciences majors for college-level courses in chemistry and biology. 2. Academic and social support: Each cohort is enrolled in the same biology and chemistry courses (lectures and discussion sections) for one year. The majority of EASE students co-enrolled in 5 courses during their first year, one of which was a preparatory general chemistry course during the first academic quarter and was required in order to proceed with the rest of the general chemistry curriculum. The main goal of co-enrollment is for cohorts to engage in learning activities and develop strong relationships, which is hoped to increase students’ sense of belonging in the biological sciences department and at the institution. Each cohort is also matched with a senior biological sciences mentor. Mentors are upperclassman biological sciences majors selected by the department; they have a tutoring background and have excelled in introductory biological sciences courses. The mentors provide increased academic support and serve as students’ main guide to all campus resources and opportunities. Lastly, EASE students participate in a weekly 50-minute seminar led by an EASE mentor. Seminar topics are generally academic in nature and focus particularly on study skills and metacognition. General first-year issues are also discussed, in addition to advice about how to navigate the first-year experience. The personalized advising and guidance students receive through the EASE program is intended to not only fill students’ knowledge gaps, but also provide support as students develop academic and social-emotional skills during their first year in college. In analyzing the EASE program, we expected social integration within the biological sciences major to manifest itself in two particular ways. First, in keeping with other studies’ finding that learning communities impact students’ sense of institutionspecific belonging [36, 21], we expected learning communities to improve students’ sense of belonging within the biological sciences major, thereby strengthening students’ belief that they fit the subject and that their involvement is valued [36]. Second, as students often enter college with academic and social concerns about the challenges they will face [33], we anticipated that the social support systems in EASE would assuage these concerns, including those about being socially ostracized and being judged for poor performance. Evidence of the program’s effect on students’ academic integration was expected to manifest itself in distinct ways as well. First, we anticipated that students would engage more in course-related behaviors, such as visiting faculty during office hours, participating in student study groups, and using other campus resources. Because the social support features of learning communities are designed to encourage academic collaboration, we hypothesized that we would find evidence of improved academic integration in interactions with teachers, advisors, and study groups [46]. We also expected that the program’s supplemental instruction and advising would support students’ interest in the biological sciences, with academic interest serving as an especially strong predictor of persistence among undergraduate students [47–48]. Consequently, we predicted that furthered course-related behaviors and interest in the biological sciences major would correspond with higher grades in students’ biological science courses.

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Article: Social Distancing

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Our modelling techniques are an improvement compared with earlier studies [6, 8]. We showed that a common set of parameters and temperature from Central England could be used for modelling the 334 administrative units. Bootsma and Ferguson [8] developed an epidemic model to study the impacts of public health interventions on the 1918 influenza pandemic in 16 US cities. He et al [6] proposed another epidemic model which incorporates school opening and closing, temperature changes and changes in human behavioral responses during the 1918 influenza pandemic in 334 administrative units in England and Wales. However, in both studies, instead of using a common set of model input parameters, unique model input parameters were needed for model fitting of each city or administrative units. Here, our model requires only a common set of parameters for the three-city or the subsequent 334-administrative unit model-fitting procedure, and the reduced number of parameters used represented significant improvement in computational efficiency and resulted in more robust estimates. Caley et al. [40] studied the 1918 influenza pandemic in Australia and showed that reactive social distancing had a significant impact on the observed multiple epidemic wave and final epidemic size. Our effective reproductive numbers are comparable to these studies. Our theoretical damping oscillation results provide a plausible explanation to the observed multiple waves, where reactive social distancing in response to the high recent proportion of influenza deaths could lead to a dampening of epidemic waves. However, with the decline in the proportion of influenza deaths, public risk perception could be lowered as well, leading to less social distancing which could eventually induce another epidemic wave. In addition, we showed that reactive social distancing could lead to reduction in final epidemic size. Our findings are plausible and are consistent with earlier mathematical modelling studies on the 1918 influenza pandemic. Our estimated initial proportion of susceptible individuals are around 0.650, which are comparable with previous studies by Mathews et al [41], Bolton et al. [42], Gani et al. [43] and He et al. [6]. Our estimates of the initial number of infectious individuals and school term intensity are also consistent with He et al [6]. Compared to previous studies, our methods provide several improvements. First, by using a common set of model parameters for fitting the three-city model, we have greatly enhanced our computational efficiencies and have also resulted in more robust estimates of the final epidemic size. Second, by comparing different forms of social distancing, we identified that people responded most to the proportion of influenza mortality during the 1918 pandemic. Third, our theoretical results suggest an almost perfect linear relationship between the mean period of damping oscillations and the duration of reactive social distancing under ideal conditions. These findings have important implications on the impact of behavioral reaction on influenza pandemic waves. Major limitations of our study include the lack of direct historical behavioral data on quantifying the extent of reactive social distancing. Also, other non-pharmaceutical interventions could have played a role on the influenza pandemic patterns observed, but these measures are not considered in our model. There could be differences in summer vacation periods and daily temperature data in the three cities. However, such detailed data are not accessible to us. In future epidemics or pandemics, such information can be gathered and incorporated into the framework developed in this work. Furthermore, our model failed to achieve reasonable model fits for small administrative units due to their smaller population sizes because the model parameters are estimated from large cities. We were indeed more interested in fitting large cities. Finally, we did not consider the effect where epidemics in small administrative units are likely driven by large cities. In conclusion, a simple model that considers reactive social distancing, temperature, and school term could explain the observed multiple waves and final epidemic size in London boroughs, Birmingham and Liverpool during the 1918 influenza pandemic. Despite societal changes, our historical analyses on the 1918 pandemic could still serve as an evidence base for future pandemic planning. Supporting Information • S1 Text. Likelihood based inference framework. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0180545.s001 (PDF) • S1 Fig. Temperature in England and Wales 1918-1919. Temperature data in Central England from June 29, 1918 to May 10, 1919 was downloaded from the UK Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change. https://doi.org/10.1371/ journal.pone.0180545.s002 (PDF) Continued on page 36

• S1 Appendix. Oscillations induced by reactive social distancing. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0180545.s003 (PDF)

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Summer Elections - 2020 North American Council of Automotive Teachers (NACAT) is currently accepting nominations from individuals to fill a number of board positions and vital officer position. NACAT is a family-centered organization comprised of member educators who provide mentoring, educational support, and voice for automotive educators in secondary and post-secondary schools throughout North America. The organization is investing in the repair industry of tomorrow, and is recognized for the exemplary cutting-edge conference it provides to educators each year in different regions of the United States or Canada. Are you an individual who currently works in the field of automotive education? Do you want to contribute to the industry that has become your profession? Are you an individual that has the desire and intent to use your unique qualities and talents to make the automotive repair industry a better place for the technician and industry of tomorrow? Do you work well with others in efforts to create a common good? If you answered “yes” to those questions and you are currently a NACAT member of record, and have been for a minimum of 24 months, you are certainly an individual who should consider our open positions. Positions for 2020: • Board Member (Three seats open, each with a 3 year term) • Secretary / Treasurer (2 year term) For more information on the open positions, or to learn how to submit a nomination form for one of the open positions, please go to http://www.nacat.org.

“As human beings, our job in life is to help people realize how rare and valuable each one of us really is, that each of us has something that no one else has- or ever will have- something inside that is unique to all time. It’s our job to encourage each other to discover that uniqueness and to provide ways of developing its expression” - Fred Rogers Is Your NACAT Membership Current? Is your membership in NACAT current? The membership year runs September 1 - August 31. As a reminder, NACAT members enjoy the following benefits: • NACAT members receive a discounted registration to the NACAT Conference. This annual event provides technical training and professional development classes. The sessions are presented by the industry’s leading subject matter experts. The conference tradeshow provides attendees time to meet textbook authors, publishers and manufacturers of training aides. There is plenty of time for networking, fun, and industry awards in a very family friendly atmosphere. • NACAT members are eligible to receive awards and scholarships. • NACAT members receive three (3) issues of the NACAT News per year. • NACAT Members receive nine (9) issues of the NACAT eNews per year. • NACAT members receive preferred pricing on equipment, subscriptions, tools and training aides from NACAT’s industry friends. This information is available in the NACAT News and the NACAT website. • NACAT members have access to the shared resources repository at the NACAT website. • NACAT members make life-long friendships through this network of like-minded individuals. Members are part of a family of educators preparing people for careers in the automotive industry or wherever life may lead them.

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Article: EASE

The conceptual model in Fig 1 depicts the hypothesized mechanisms through which EASE was expected to impact persistence. The model is based on popular theories of college persistence that emphasize the complementary roles of academic integration and social integration; the measures used in the present study are listed as indicators of academic and social integration. It is important to note that the present study measures only the total association of the learning community, with academic and social integration functioning acting as independent entities. However, as the vertical arrows in the model convey, we believe both that persistence is generated through academic and social integration and that these factors are mutually reinforcing. For instance, a greater sense of belonging within the biological sciences major (social integration) would be expected to enhance a student’s interest in biology (academic integration) [35]. By the same token, students who get higher grades (academic integration) as a result of EASE’s supplementary instruction would be expected to have fewer academic and social concerns (social integration) [49].

Fig 1. Conceptual model of EASE learning community program. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0213827.g001

In this study, we address the following research questions: 1. Is enrollment in the EASE program correlated with improved academic outcomes? 2. Is enrollment in the EASE program correlated with social-psychological measures of the student experience? 3. Are students in the EASE program more likely to remain in the biological sciences major than students not enrolled in the program? 4. Do the impacts of the EASE program vary by student subgroup?

Continued in Fall 2020: Methods, Results, Discussion, & References

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Hyundai Launches the Hyundai Women in STEM Scholarship To celebrate International Women’s Day, Hyundai has introduced the Hyundai Women in STEM Scholarship to help the next generation of women leaders. The scholarship helps close the gender gap in engineering, mobility and autonomous driving fields by awarding female students interested in pursuing an education and career in those disciplines. Five female STEM students who are driven by better will receive a scholarship in the amount of $10,000 each. “At Hyundai, we understand that building a better future starts with investing in the young women inventing it today,” said Angela Zepeda, CMO, Hyundai Motor America, “We hope this scholarship program helps funnel more women into the STEM fields, resulting in a significant impact to the gender gap that still exists today.” Participants must be high school seniors or undergraduate students who are female, reside in the United States and wish to pursue a STEM-related field of education. Eligible students can apply for the award by writing an essay of 500 words or more on why they chose to pursue a STEM-related field and what drives them to be better. Applications are open now until June 30, 2020. More information can be found at https://www.tun.com/blog/hyundai-women-in-stem-scholarship/. Hyundai Motor America At Hyundai Motor America, we believe everyone deserves better. From the way we design and build our cars to the way we treat the people who drive them, making things better is at the heart of everything we do. Hyundai’s technology-rich product lineup of cars, SUVs and alternative-powered electric and fuel cell vehicles is backed by Hyundai Assurance—our promise to create a better experience for customers. Hyundai vehicles are sold and serviced through more than 830 dealerships nationwide and nearly half of those sold in the U.S. are built at Hyundai Motor Manufacturing Alabama. Hyundai Motor America is headquartered in Fountain Valley, California, and is a subsidiary of Hyundai Motor Company of Korea.

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Article: Social Distancing

Continued from page 32 References

1. Johnson NP, Mueller J. Updating the accounts: global mortality of the 1918-1920 “Spanish” influenza pandemic. Bull Hist Med. 2002; 76:105–15. pmid:11875246 2. Barry JM. The site of origin of the 1918 influenza pandemic and its public health implications. J Transl Med. 2004;2:3. pmid:14733617 3. Bauch C, d’Onofrio A, Manfredi P. Behavioral Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases: An Overview. In Modeling the Interplay between Human Behaviour and the Spread of Infectious Diseases, Manfredi P and d’Onofrio A, eds., Springer Verlag, New York, 2013, pp. 1–19. 4. d’Onofrio A, Manfredi P, Salinelli E. Vaccinating behaviour, information, and the dynamics of SIR vaccine preventable diseases. Theor Popul Biol. 2007; 71:301–17. pmid:17335862 5. Merler S, Poletti P, Ajelli M, Caprile B, Manfredi P. Coinfection can trigger multiple pandemic waves. J Theor Biol. 2008; 254:499–507. pmid:18606170 6. He D, Dushoff J, Day T, Ma J, Earn DJ. Inferring the causes of the three waves of the 1918 influenza pandemic in England and Wales. Proc Biol Sci. 2013; 280:20131345. pmid:23843396 7. Poletti P, Caprile B, Ajelli M, Pugliese A, Merler S. Spontaneous behavioural changes in response to epidemics. J Theor Biol. 2009; 260:31–40. pmid:19446570 8. Bootsma MC, Ferguson NM. The effect of public health measures on the 1918 influenza pandemic in U.S. cities. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2007; 104:7588–93. pmid:17416677 9. Johnson N. 1918-1919 Influenza Pandemic Mortality in England and Wales. [data collection]. UK Data Service. 2011. SN: 4350. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.5255/UKDA-SN-4350-1. 10. Mills CE, Robins JM, Lipsitch M. Transmissibility of 1918 pandemic influenza. Nature. 2004; 432:904–6. pmid:15602562 11. Nishiura H, Chowell G. Early transmission dynamics of Ebola virus disease (EVD), West Africa, March to August 2014. Euro Surveill. 2014; 19. pii:20894. 12. Chowell G, Hengartner NW, Castillo-Chavez C, Fenimore PW, Hyman JM. The basic reproductive number of Ebola and the effects of public health measures: the cases of Congo and Uganda. J Theor Biol. 2004; 229:119–26. pmid:15178190 13. Chowell G, Bettencourt LM, Johnson N, Alonso WJ, Viboud C. The 1918-1919 influenza pandemic in England and Wales: spatial patterns in transmissibility and mortality impact. Proc Biol Sci. 2008; 275:501–9. pmid:18156123 14. Eggo RM, Cauchemez S, Ferguson NM. Spatial dynamics of the 1918 influenza pandemic in England, Wales and the United States. J R Soc Interface.2011; 8:233–43. pmid:20573630 15. He D, Ionides EL, King AA. Plug-and-play inference for disease dynamics: measles in large and small populations as a case study. J R Soc Interface. 2010; 7:271–83. pmid:19535416 16. Ionides EL, Bretó C, King AA. Inference for nonlinear dynamical systems. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2006; 103:18438–43. pmid:17121996 17. Ionides EL, Bhadra A, King AA. Iterated Filtering. Ann Stat. 2011; 39:1776–802. 18. King AA, Ionides EL, Pascual M, Bouma MJ. Inapparent infections and cholera dynamics. Nature. 2008; 454:877–80. pmid:18704085 19. Breto C, He D, Ionides EL, King AA. Time series analysis via mechanistic models. Ann Appl Stat. 2009; 3:319–48. 20. King AA, Domenech de Cellès M, Magpantay FM, Rohani P. Avoidable errors in the modelling of outbreaks of emerging pathogens, with special reference to Ebola. Proc Biol Sci. 2015;282:20150347. pmid:25833863 21. He D, Dushoff J, Day T, Ma J, Earn DJD. Mechanistic modelling of the three waves of the 1918 influenza pandemic. Theor. Ecol. 2011; 4:283–8. Continued on page 37

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Article: Social Distancing

Continued from page 36

22. Camacho A, Ballesteros S, Graham AL, Carrat F, Ratmann O, Cazelles B. Explaining rapid reinfections in multiple-wave influenza outbreaks: Tristan da Cunha 1971 epidemic as a case study. Proc Biol Sci. 2011; 278:3635–43. pmid:21525058 23. Earn DJ, He D, Loeb MB, Fonseca K, Lee BE, Dushoff J. Effects of school closure on incidence of pandemic influenza in Alberta, Canada. Ann Intern Med. 2012; 156:173–81. pmid:22312137 24. Shrestha S, Foxman B, Weinberger DM, Steiner C, Viboud C, Rohani P. Identifying the interaction between influenza and pneumococcal pneumonia using incidence data. Sci Transl Med. 2013;5:191ra84. pmid:23803706 25. Laneri K, Bhadra A, Ionides EL, Bouma M, Dhiman RC, Yadav RS, et al. Forcing versus feedback: epidemic malaria and monsoon rains in northwest India. PLoS Comput Biol. 2010;6:e1000898. pmid:20824122 26. Bhadra A, Ionides EL, Laneri K, Pascual M, Bouma M, Dhiman RC. Malaria in Northwest India: Data analysis via partially observed stochastic differential equation models driven by Lévy noise. J Am Stat Assoc. 2011; 106:440–51. 27. Roy M, Bouma MJ, Ionides EL, Dhiman RC, Pascual M. The potential elimination of Plasmodium vivax malaria by relapse treatment: insights from a transmission model and surveillance data from NW India. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2013; 7:e1979. pmid:23326611 28. Zhou J, Han L, Liu S. Nonlinear mixed-effects state space models with applications to HIV dynamics. Stat Probab Lett. 2013; 83:1448–56. 29. Lavine J, Rohani P. Resolving pertussis immunity and vaccine effectiveness using incidence time series. Expert Rev Vaccines. 2012; 11:1319–29. pmid:23249232 30. Blackwood JC, Cummings DA, Broutin H, Iamsirithaworn S, Rohani P. Deciphering the impacts of vaccination and immunity on pertussis epidemiology in Thailand. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2013; 110:9595–600. pmid:23690587 31. Blake IM, Martin R, Goel A, Khetsuriani N, Everts J, Wolff C, et al. The role of older children and adults in wild poliovirus transmission. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2014; 111:10604–9. pmid:25002465 32. Ionides EL. Discussion on “Feature Matching in Time Series Modeling” by Y. Xia and H. Tong. Stat Sci. 2011; 26:49–52. 33. Blackwood JC, Streicker DG, Altizer S, Rohani P. Resolving the roles of immunity, pathogenesis, and immigration for rabies persistence in vampire bats. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2013; 110:20837–42. pmid:24297874 34. Bhadra A. Discussion of Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo methods by Andrieu et al. J R Stat Soc B. 2010; 72:314–5. 35. Breto C. On idiosyncratic stochasticity of financial leverage effects. Stat Probab Lett. 2014; 91:20–26. 36. Keeling M, Rohani P. Modeling infectious diseases in humans and animals. Princeton University Press, 2007. 37. van den Driessche P, Watmough J. Reproduction numbers and sub-threshold endemic equilibria for compartmental models of disease transmission. Math Biosci. 2002; 180:29–48. pmid:12387915 38. Diekmann O, Heesterbeek JAP. Mathematical epidemiology of infectious diseases: Model building, analysis and interpretation. Wiley, 2000. 39. Ma J, Earn DJD. Generality of the final size formula for an epidemic of a newly invading infectious disease. Bull Math Biol. 2006; 68:679–702. pmid:16794950 40. Caley P, Philp DJ, McCracken K. Quantifying social distancing arising from pandemic influenza. J R Soc Interface. 2008; 5:631–9. pmid:17916550 41. Mathews JD, McCaw CT, McVernon J, McBryde ES, McCaw JM. A biological model for influenza transmission: pandemic planning implications of asymptomatic infection and immunity. PLoS One. 2007; 2:e1220. pmid:18043733 42. Bolton KJ, McCaw JM, McVernon J, Mathews JD. The influence of changing host immunity on 1918-19 pandemic dynamics. Epidemics. 2014; 8:18–27. pmid:25240900 43. Gani R, Hughes H, Fleming D, Griffin T, Medlock J, Leach S. Potential impact of antiviral drug use during influenza pandemic. Emerg Infect Dis. 2005; 11:1355–62. pmid:16229762

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Let’s Escape! In this issue you saw some items which reflect the current world pandemic. There was an article which sought to provide insight of the United Kingdom during last century’s influenza pandemic. It was selected while being home due to mass closures: businesses, K-12 schools, universities, colleges, technical schools, and beyond. States were being told to “shelter-inplace” and the United States - Canada border was closed to non-essential traffic. My hope would be that we don’t experience wave after wave of the SARS-Cov-2 virus and COVID-19 infections while some of the closures which existed at the time of writing would be back open, but I wished provide some resources in event the closures and personal isolation are still the norm. What can you do if you cannot go anywhere and must isolate? How about a virtual trip to some automotive museums? • Porshe Museum https://www.porsche.com/all/transitional/museum/kugelpanoramen/Tour_Porsche_high_res/Museumstour_hr_en.html • Mercedes-Benz Museum https://www.mercedes-benz.com/en/classic/museum/exhibition/ • Museo Lamborghni https://www.google.com/maps/@44.6591361,11.1257742,3a,75y,262.95h,86.53t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1s0YqKxyW H1sQAAAQIuAy4iw!2e0!7i9692!8i4846?hl=en • National Corvette Museum https://www.google.com/maps/@37.0042596,-86.3744149,2a,75y,44.82h,79.74t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1s3ch81PSB BYcpaddKlw4P9g!2e0!7i13312!8i6656?hl=en • Petersen Automotive Museum https://www.google.com/maps/@34.0621745,-118.3610787,2a,75y,111.66h,65.17t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sCV1OJ ZQelVMv5wBXo3oPmw!2e0!7i13312!8i6656 • Lane Motor Museum https://www.google.com/maps/@36.1402833,-86.7341045,3a,75y,211.42h,68.1t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1sAF1QipP ZQ6RRlCPM02f_l7eEWsLgq7k5lav1PURDkPZS!2e10!3e11!7i8192!8i4096 • Ferrari Museum (two of them) Maranello - https://www.google.com/maps/@44.5296989,10.8614508,2a,90y,299.36h,75.99t/ data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1s2hVb3-aosLHQMwUS3BAPtg!2e0!7i13312!8i6656 Modena - https://www.google.com/maps/@44.652239,10.9366808,3a,75y,186.23h,92.73t/data=!3m8!1e1!3m6! 1sAF1QipO92x6fXMZRD_FHV9CFTepYjoa6IN8A8EPhWSki!2e10!3e11!6shttps:%2F%2Flh5.googleusercontent.com%2Fp%2FAF1QipO92x6fXMZRD_FHV9CFTepYjoa6IN8A8EPhWSki%3Dw203-h100-k-no-pi-0ya133.84018-ro-0-fo100!7i8704!8i4352 • Toyota Museum https://www.google.com/maps/@35.1727833,137.0581267,2a,75y,333.6h,90t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sEFIzZxKLDZI7-iNK4q6VQ!2e0!7i13312!8i6656 How about some car related shows on a streaming service? • Netflix: Formula 1: Drive to Survive, West Coast Customs, Fastest Car, Car Masters: Rust to Riches, Hyperdrive, Rust Valley Restorers, Fast and Furious Spy Racers, Highway Thru Hell, Outback Truckers, APEX: The Story of the Hypercar, The 24 Hour War, Williams, Shelby American, Drive, Uppity: The Willy T. Ribbs Story, Paul Hollywood’s Big Continental Road Trip, Senna • Hulu: Top Gear USA, Fast N Loud, Diesel Brothers, Initial D, Hurley, Blink of an Eye (requires Hulu Live TV bundle) • Amazon Prime: The Grand Tour, Le Mans Racing is Everything, The Gymkhana Files, Winning: The Racing Life of Paul Newman, Hunt vs. Lauda, Crash and Burn, 1, Detroit Muscle, Classic Cars, Vintage Car Films, Drag Racing Films • Disney+: Cars, Cars 2, Cars 3, Herbie Fully Loaded, The Love Bug, Herbie Rides Again, Herbie Goes to Monte Carlo, Herbie Goes Bananas

38  NACAT News


Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and you What is coronavirus disease 2019?

What are severe complications from this virus?

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a respiratory illness that can spread from person to person. The virus that causes COVID-19 is a novel coronavirus that was first identified during an investigation into an outbreak in Wuhan, China.

Some patients have pneumonia in both lungs, multi-organ failure and in some cases death.

Can I get COVID-19? Yes. COVID-19 is spreading from person to person in parts of the world. Risk of infection from the virus that causes COVID-19 is higher for people who are close contacts of someone known to have COVID-19, for example healthcare workers, or household members. Other people at higher risk for infection are those who live in or have recently been in an area with ongoing spread of COVID-19. Learn more about places with ongoing spread at https:// www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/transmission. html#geographic. The current list of global locations with cases of COVID-19 is available on CDC’s web page at https://www.cdc.gov/ coronavirus/2019-ncov/locations-confirmed-cases.html.

How does COVID-19 spread? The virus that causes COVID-19 probably emerged from an animal source, but is now spreading from person to person. The virus is thought to spread mainly between people who are in close contact with one another (within about 6 feet) through respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs or sneezes. It also may be possible that a person can get COVID-19 by touching a surface or object that has the virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose, or possibly their eyes, but this is not thought to be the main way the virus spreads.Learn what is known about the spread of newly emerged coronaviruses at https://www.cdc.gov/ coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/transmission.html.

What are the symptoms of COVID-19? Patients with COVID-19 have had mild to severe respiratory illness with symptoms of: • fever • cough • shortness of breath

People can help protect themselves from respiratory illness with everyday preventive actions. • Avoid close contact with people who are sick. • Avoid touching your eyes, nose, and mouth with unwashed hands. • Wash your hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds. Use an alcohol-based hand sanitizer that contains at least 60% alcohol if soap and water are not available.

If you are sick, to keep from spreading respiratory illness to others, you should • Stay home when you are sick. • Cover your cough or sneeze with a tissue, then throw the tissue in the trash. • Clean and disinfect frequently touched objects and surfaces.

What should I do if I recently traveled from an area with ongoing spread of COVID-19? If you have traveled from an affected area, there may be restrictions on your movements for up to 2 weeks. If you develop symptoms during that period (fever, cough, trouble breathing), seek medical advice. Call the office of your health care provider before you go, and tell them about your travel and your symptoms. They will give you instructions on how to get care without exposing other people to your illness. While sick, avoid contact with people, don’t go out and delay any travel to reduce the possibility of spreading illness to others.

Is there a vaccine? There is currently no vaccine to protect against COVID-19. The best way to prevent infection is to take everyday preventive actions, like avoiding close contact with people who are sick and washing your hands often.

Is there a treatment? There is no specific antiviral treatment for COVID-19. People with COVID-19 can seek medical care to help relieve symptoms.

For more information: www.cdc.gov/COVID19 CS 314937-H 03/06/2020

Summer 2020 | www.nacat.org |  39


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