Annual Market Report 2021 - Gary Paul Baker

2021 ANNUAL MARKET REPORT

831.624.2300 montereycoastrealty.com

Carmel-by-the-Sea & Carmel Point

Dolores and Seventh Carmel-by-the-Sea

Greater Carmel

DRE#01871677

Carmel Valley Pebble Beach Carmel Highlands, Big Sur & South Coast Monterey Pacific Grove Seaside Marina

Letter from Gary Paul 831.624.2300 montereycoastrealty.com Dolores and Seventh Carmel-by-the-Sea

Dear Friends, Happy New Year to all! 2021 was a fantastic year in real estate. I couldn’t be more thankful for the trust that my clients have instilled in me and my team. We were able to help so many people carry out their real estate dreams by selling or buying in this ever changing and dynamic market.

The Monterey Peninsula has proven to be in extremely high demand with low inventory, increasing prices and minimal days on market. Homes are selling way faster than they ever have. In this market it is essential that everyone finds an agent that can navigate multiple offers and successfully negotiate the best price and terms as well as win the deal!

I’m grateful that we were able to do just that for so many. I look forward to the 2022 Monterey Peninsula real estate market being just as active, exciting, and prosperous as 2021!

Thank you once again to all my clients, friends, and colleagues. Your support and trust have allowed me to start and grow my real estate business in 2021. Without you and my team, I would not have had nearly the success that I had last year. This year I will continue my commitment to my clients and dedication to my real estate profession. If you are interested in reaching your real estate goals this year or know of someone else who would like to buy or sell, I would be honored to assist them.

Thank you once again!

Gary Paul Baker Kim DiBenedetto Fine Estates 831.717.7959 gary@montereycoastrealty.com GaryNegotiatesHomes.com DRE#02111657

2

2021 ANNUAL MARKET REPORT

My Recent Sales Activity

1027 Ocean View Boulevard, Pacific Grove SP: $4,900,000 • Represented Seller

926 Ruth Court, Pacific Grove SP: $1,500,000 • Represented Buyer

866 Sunset Drive, Pacific Grove SP: $1,059,000 • Represented Seller

3

Q3 2021 Market Overview 831.624.2300 montereycoastrealty.com Dolores and Seventh Carmel-by-the-Sea

T

he Monterey Peninsula is one of the most beautiful places on earth. With “home” continuing to be more important than ever, demand for housing in this area remains very high. All of the reasons families have decided to relocate from urban markets to this area remain. At the same time the frenzy levels of 2020 have started to subside. While each of the nine markets we track in this report can vary, overall, it is safe to say that The Peninsula is beginning to normalize at what seems like healthy and potentially more sustainable levels.

In most of our nine markets, sales and volumes in the current quarter are lower than Q2 of this year and down more from the second half of last year.

However, our year-to-date levels are higher this year than last. COVID had all but shut down a few months in early 2020 and those months in 2021 were flourishing. Overall, 2021 looks like it will land higher in volume that 2020. Said plainly, our market appears to be slower now than last year, but busier than any other year we’ve ever had. With demand remaining high, we believe this is a much healthier level and one that several economists are calling a new normalization of our markets.

If you or any of your friends or family are considering a real estate transaction in this market, it has never been more important to enlist a market leading company and knowledgeable agent to guide you through the dynamic changes we are experiencing. At Carmel Realty Company and Monterey Coast Realty we engage a powerful in-house analytics team to track every key indicator in our market. We then pair this data with the market’s most experienced and successful agents to deliver exceptional results for our clients.

Please enjoy the following quarterly market report and let us know if we can provide you with any additional information or support.

4

2021 ANNUAL MARKET REPORT

Table of Contents Carmel-by-the-Sea & Carmel Point ................................6 Greater Carmel ...................................................................8 The areas outside of Carmel-by-the Sea & Carmel Point

Carmel Valley .................................................................. 10 Including The Santa Lucia Preserve

Pebble Beach ...................................................................12 Carmel Highlands, Big Sur & South Coast ...................14 Monterey ...........................................................................16 Pacific Grove ....................................................................18 Seaside ............................................................................. 20 Marina ............................................................................... 22

5

831.624.2300 montereycoastrealty.com Dolores and Seventh Carmel-by-the-Sea

C A R M E L - BY-T H E - S E A M A R K E T U P D AT E

SALES BY SEGMENT

C

armel-by-the-Sea continued to experience an increase in home values as a result of very low inventory of homes available for sale. The average sales price reached an all-time high of $3.8M over the 4th quarter. There were only five listings remaining active at the end of the year. Sales volume in Carmelby-the-Sea also climbed to a near record high of $182M in Q4 2021, a sizable increase of 54% over the previous quarter. Sales volume overall for 2021 beat out 2020 by 14%.

<$1M | 0 $1M-2M | 9 $2M-3M | 10 $3M-5M | 18 $5M+ | 11

21%

$3,804,392 AV E R AG E S E L L I N G P R I C E

20.8% 2021 vs 2020

23%

26.1% Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020

$182.6M

48

37

SALES VOLUME

UNITS SOLD

D AY S O N M A R K E T

5.6% 2021 vs 2020 14.3%

48.2% 2021 vs 2020 2.8%

14% 2021 vs 2020 8.1%

Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020 6

38%

19%

Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020

Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020

2021 ANNUAL MARKET REPORT

Carmel-by-the-Sea & Carmel Point Days on Market

Average vs Median Sales Price

$4M

40

$3M

30

$2M

20

$1M

10

Q4 2020

Q1 2021

Q2 2021

Average

Q3 2021

Q4 2020

Q4 2021

Q1 2021

Closed Sales Volume by Quarter

Q4 2021

Average vs Median Sales Price

by Quarter

Closed Sales by Quarter

80

$4M

$150M

60

$3M

$100M

40

$50M

20

Q2 2020

Q3 2021

Median

$200M

Q1

Q2 2021

Q3

Q4 2021

$2M

$1M

Q1

Q1

Q2 2020

Q3

Q4 2021

Q2

2020 Average 2021 Average

Q3

Q4 2020 Median 2021 Median

7

831.624.2300 montereycoastrealty.com Dolores and Seventh Carmel-by-the-Sea

G R E AT E R C A R M E L M A R K E T U P D AT E

SALES BY SEGMENT

T

he Greater Carmel market experienced a reduction in average sale price from the highs of Q4 2020 and Q1 2021. Average sales prices have dropped to just under $1.8M this quarter as a result of fewer high-priced homes selling in the last three months of the year.

For the entire year of 2021 average sale prices remained slightly over $2M. Demand has remained strong in this area with 97 homes changing hands throughout 2020, consistent with the 101 sold in 2020. Inventory in this market has dried up, with just 4 active listings at the end of the year, down 77% from year-end 2020.

<$1M | 5 $1M-2M | 9 $2M-3M | 4 $3M-5M | 4 $5M+ | 0

41%

$1,794,581

23%

AV E R AG E S E L L I N G P R I C E

11.6% 2021 vs 2020 19.5% Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020

18%

$39.5M

22

49

SALES VOLUME

UNITS SOLD

D AY S O N M A R K E T

4% 2021 vs 2020 29%

27.4% 2021 vs 2020 31%

7.2% 2021 vs 2020 42.8% Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020

8

18%

Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020

Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020

2021 ANNUAL MARKET REPORT

Greater Carmel

The areas outside of Carmel-by-the Sea & Carmel Point

Days on Market

Average vs Median Sales Price

$2.4M

80

$1.8M

60

$1.2M

40

$600K

20

Q4 2020

Q1 2021

Q2 2021

Average

Q3 2021

Q4 2020

Q4 2021

Q1 2021

Q2 2021

Q3 2021

Q4 2021

Median

Average vs Median Sales Price

by Quarter

Closed Sales by Quarter

Closed Sales Volume by Quarter

$70M

40

$53M

30

$35M

20

$18M

10

$2.4M

$1.8M

$1.2M

$600K

Q1

Q1

Q2 2020

Q3

Q4 2021

Q1

Q2 2020

Q3

Q4 2021

Q2

2020 Average 2021 Average

Q3

Q4 2020 Median 2021 Median

9

831.624.2300 montereycoastrealty.com Dolores and Seventh Carmel-by-the-Sea

C A R M E L VA L L E Y M A R K E T U P D AT E

SALES BY SEGMENT

C

armel Valley sales activity increased at an incredible rate during 2021. The total number of sales for 2021 reached 299, an 18% increase over 2020 and 50% increase in the last two years. This larger number of sales combined with a 15% increase in average sale price, resulted in $551M in total sales volume during 2021. Quarter 4 of 2021, showed a lower average sales price than Q3 due to only two $5M+ sales in the market, which is about half the number high-priced homes sold over the previous 3 quarters.

<$1M | 23 $1M-2M | 31 $2M-3M | 13 $3M-5M | 8 $5M+ | 2

30%

$1,788,402 AV E R AG E S E L L I N G P R I C E

3%

14.9% 16.3% Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020 2021 vs 2020

17% 10%

$137.7M

77

39

SALES VOLUME

UNITS SOLD

D AY S O N M A R K E T

18.2% 2021 vs 2020 1.3%

32.3% 2021 vs 2020 32.8%

35.7% 2021 vs 2020 14.8%

Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020 10

40%

Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020

Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020

2021 ANNUAL MARKET REPORT

Carmel Valley

Including The Santa Lucia Preserve

Days on Market

Average vs Median Sales Price

$2.1M

60

$1.6M

45

$1.1M

30

$525K

15

Q4 2020

Q1 2021

Q2 2021

Average

Q3 2021

Q4 2020

Q4 2021

Q1 2021

Q2 2021

Q3 2021

Q4 2021

Median

Closed Sales Volume by Quarter

Average vs Median Sales Price

by Quarter

Closed Sales by Quarter

100

$2.1M

$135M

75

$1.6M

$90M

50

$45M

25

$180M

$1.1M

$525K

Q1

Q2 2020

Q3

Q4 2021

Q1

Q1

Q2 2020

Q3

Q4 2021

Q2

2020 Average 2020 Average

Q3

Q4 2021 Median 2021 Median

11

831.624.2300 montereycoastrealty.com Dolores and Seventh Carmel-by-the-Sea

P E B B L E B E AC H M A R K E T U P D AT E

SALES BY SEGMENT

P

ebble Beach had a healthy sales volume this quarter selling 39 homes for $153M in value. This volume is 28% higher than the previous quarter but still 16% below 4th quarter of last year. For the year, sales volume of $665M represents a record year for Pebble Beach, 33% above 2020 which was on its own a record year as well.

The average sales price in Pebble Beach for the year was the highest on record at $4.3M, a 32% increase over 2020. Inventory is very tight in this market as well with just 18 homes currently listed for sale compared to 42 at this same time last year.

21%

$3,945,114

18% 8%

21%

AV E R AG E S E L L I N G P R I C E

32.6% 2021 vs 2020 19.9% Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020

33%

$153.9M

39

46

SALES VOLUME

UNITS SOLD

D AY S O N M A R K E T

0.7% 2021 vs 2020 30.4%

41.1% 2021 vs 2020 13.2%

33.4% 2021 vs 2020 16.5%

Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020 12

<$1M | 3 $1M-2M | 13 $2M-3M | 8 $3M-5M | 8 $5M+ | 7

Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020

Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020

2021 ANNUAL MARKET REPORT

Pebble Beach Days on Market

Average vs Median Sales Price

$5M

60

$3.8M

45

$2.5M

30

$1.3M

15

Q4 2020

Q1 2021

Q2 2021

Average

Q3 2021

Q4 2020

Q4 2021

Q1 2021

Q2 2021

Q3 2021

Q4 2021

Median

Closed Sales Volume by Quarter

Average vs Median Sales Price

by Quarter

Closed Sales by Quarter

60

$5M

$165M

45

$3.8M

$110M

30

$55M

15

$220M

$2.5M

$1.3M

Q1

Q2 2020

Q3

Q4 2021

Q1

Q1

Q2 2020

Q3

Q4 2021

Q2

2020 Average 2021 Average

Q3

Q4 2020 Median 2021 Median

13

831.624.2300 montereycoastrealty.com Dolores and Seventh Carmel-by-the-Sea

C A R M E L H I G H L A N D S M A R K E T U P D AT E

SALES BY SEGMENT

F

or the 10-year period leading up to 2020, the Carmel Highlands, Big Sur, and South Coast market averaged 13 home sales per year. This year there were 54 homes sold, nearly matching the record of 56 homes sold in 2020. Total sales volume topped $200M during 2021 for the first time. The average sale prices remained strong at over $4M for the third straight quarter. This region, known for its high-priced sales along Highway 1, did see four sales over $5M during Q4 and 14 sales over $5M in 2021. At the end of the year there were 17 homes listed for sale compared to 31 at this same time last year.

$4,087,216

<$1M | 2 $1M-2M | 3 $2M-3M | 2 $3M-5M | 3 $5M+ | 4

21%

14%

14%

AV E R AG E S E L L I N G P R I C E

21%

11.4% 2021 vs 2020 22.6% Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020

$57.2M

14

75

SALES VOLUME

UNITS SOLD

D AY S O N M A R K E T

3.6% 2021 vs 2020 26.3%

9.7% 2021 vs 2020 15.7%

7.4% 2021 vs 2020 9.7% Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020

14

29%

Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020

Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020

2021 ANNUAL MARKET REPORT

Carmel Highlands, Big Sur & South Coast Days on Market

Average vs Median Sales Price

$5M

140

$3.8M

105

$2.5M

70

$1.3M

35

Q4 2020

Q1 2021

Q2 2021

Average

Q3 2021

Q4 2020

Q4 2021

Q1 2021

Q2 2021

Q3 2021

Q4 2021

Median

Average vs Median Sales Price

by Quarter

Closed Sales by Quarter

Closed Sales Volume by Quarter

30

$90M

$7M

$5.3M

$68M

20

$3.5M

$45M

10 $1.8M

$23M

Q1

Q1

Q2

2020

Q3

Q4

2021

Q1

Q2

2020

Q3

Q4

2021

Q2

2020 Average 2021 Average

Q3

Q4 2020 Median 2021 Median

15

831.624.2300 montereycoastrealty.com Dolores and Seventh Carmel-by-the-Sea

M O N T E R E Y M A R K E T U P D AT E

SALES BY SEGMENT

T

he Monterey and Del Rey Oaks market has been active all year long. The 109 sales that took place in Q4 of this year contributed to the region having its strongest year on record with 412 sales in 2021.

The total volume in the market hit a record high of $473M up 34% over the previous year, and the average sale price hit a record high in 2021 at $1.15M. In Q4 alone the average sale price was even higher at $1.22M as a result of more homes selling in $3M+ price range. Demand was high and the pace of these sales was fast, with an average of only 26 days on the market per sale. Inventory has started to dip, but the Monterey market remains healthy and primed for a great 2022.

< $800k | 34 $800k - 1.2M | 36 $1.2M - 2M | 25 $2M - 3M | 7 $3M+ | 7

$1,227,368

31%

AV E R AG E S E L L I N G P R I C E

6%

9.4% 2021 vs 2020 13.3% Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020

23%

6%

$133.8M

109

30

SALES VOLUME

UNITS SOLD

D AY S O N M A R K E T

34.9% 2021 vs 2020 14.4%

Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020 16

33%

23.4% 2021 vs 2020 0.9%

Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020

39.5% 2021 vs 2020 3.4%

Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020

2021 ANNUAL MARKET REPORT

Monterey & Del Rey Oaks Days on Market

Average vs Median Sales Price

35

$1.3M

28

$975K

21

$650K 14

$325K

7

Q4 2020

Q1 2021

Q2 2021

Average

Q3 2021

Q4 2020

Q4 2021

Q1 2021

Q2 2021

Q3 2021

Q4 2021

Median

Closed Sales Volume by Quarter

$140M

Average vs Median Sales Price

by Quarter

Closed Sales by Quarter

110

$1.3M

88 $1.1M

$105M

66 $950K

$70M

44 $775K

$35M

22

Q1

Q1

Q2 2020

Q3

Q4 2021

Q1

Q2 2020

Q3

Q4 2021

Q2

2020 Average 2021 Average

Q3

Q4 2020 Median 2021 Median

17

831.624.2300 montereycoastrealty.com Dolores and Seventh Carmel-by-the-Sea

PAC I F I C G R O V E M A R K E T U P D AT E

SALES BY SEGMENT

P

acific Grove had another very strong quarter contributing to an unprecedented 2021. Sales volume hit a record $337M for the year climbing 39% between 2020 and 2021. Limited inventory and extremely high demand elevated prices to record highs in average and median price. Average sale price rose 27% from under $1.2M in 2020 to over $1.5M in 2021. Our internal data shows that 41% of the sales in this market in 2021 went for over asking price. At year-end 2021, only 6 properties remained on the market and with demand remaining high we expect continued upward pricing pressure and a multiple offer environment for at least the next few quarters.

< $800k | 4 $800k - 1.2M | 16 $1.2M - 2M | 17 $2M - 3M | 4 $3M+ | 4

36%

$1,586,464

9%

AV E R AG E S E L L I N G P R I C E

27.1% 2021 vs 2020 21.9% Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020

9%

$71.4M

45

29

SALES VOLUME

UNITS SOLD

D AY S O N M A R K E T

9.3% 2021 vs 2020 28.6%

31.7% 2021 vs 2020 34.1%

38.9% 2021 vs 2020 12.9% Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020

18

9%

38%

Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020

Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020

2021 ANNUAL MARKET REPORT

Pacific Grove Days on Market

Average vs Median Sales Price

50

$1.6M

40

$1.2M

30

$800K 20

$400K

10

Q4 2020

Q1 2021

Q2 2021

Average

Q3 2021

Q4 2020

Q4 2021

Q1 2021

Q2 2021

Q3 2021

Q4 2021

Median

Closed Sales Volume by Quarter

$100M

Average vs Median Sales Price

by Quarter

Closed Sales by Quarter

80

$75M

60

$50M

40

$25M

20

$1.6M

$1.2M

$800K

$400K

Q1

Q1

Q2 2020

Q3

Q4 2021

Q1

Q2 2020

Q3

Q4 2021

Q2

2020 Average 2021 Average

Q3

Q4 2020 Median 2021 Median

19

831.624.2300 montereycoastrealty.com Dolores and Seventh Carmel-by-the-Sea

S E A S I D E M A R K E T U P D AT E

SALES BY SEGMENT

A

fter a down year in 2020, Seaside experienced its best year in 2021. Total sales volume of $156M increased the most of any market, up over 72% from the prior year. There were 208 homes sold in 2021 which was the first time the Seaside market broke 200 sales in a year since 2011. Average sale price also reached a record high for the year, topping $750k for the first time. Like most other markets, inventory remains tight with just 12 homes for sale at the end of 2021.

< $400k | 1 $400k - 600k | 8 $600k - 800k | 37 $800k- 1M | 15 $1M+ | 5

56%

$738,852

12%

AV E R AG E S E L L I N G P R I C E

2%

22.9% 2021 vs 2020 16.2% Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020

23%

$48.8M

66

20

SALES VOLUME

UNITS SOLD

D AY S O N M A R K E T

72.7% 2021 vs 2020 82.5%

Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020 20

8%

40.5% 2021 vs 2020 57.1% Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020

30.8% 2021 vs 2020 37.5% Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020

2021 ANNUAL MARKET REPORT

Seaside Days on Market

Average vs Median Sales Price

$900K

40

$675K

30

$450K

20

$225K

10

Q4 2020

Q1 2021

Q2 2021

Average

Q3 2021

Q4 2020

Q4 2021

Q1 2021

Q2 2021

Q3 2021

Q4 2021

Median

Average vs Median Sales Price

by Quarter

Closed Sales by Quarter

Closed Sales Volume by Quarter

$50M

70

$900K

$38M

52.5

$675K

$25M

35

$13M

17.5

$450K

$225K

Q1

Q1

Q2 2020

Q3

Q4 2021

Q1

Q2 2020

Q3

Q4 2021

Q2

2020 Average 2021 Average

Q3

Q4 2020 Median 2021 Median

21

831.624.2300 montereycoastrealty.com Dolores and Seventh Carmel-by-the-Sea

M A R I N A M A R K E T U P D AT E

SALES BY SEGMENT

M

arina began 2021 with some of the tightest inventory in the region and closed the year the same way, finishing the year with just six homes on the market. As a result, units sold decreased by 28% in 2021 vs 2020. Driven by higher average prices, total sales volume fell only 19%. Strong demand and limited supply drove the average sale price up to $780K in 2021, nearly a 12% increase over 2020. The average listing sold in just 11 days on the market, easily the shortest timespan across the Peninsula. With high demand and increasing prices, ten percent of all sales are now over $1M in the Marina market.

$780,182

< $600k | 6 $600k - 800k | 14 $800k - 1M | 11 $1M - 1.2M | 0 $1.2M - 2M | 2

42% 18%

AV E R AG E S E L L I N G P R I C E

11.8% 2021 vs 2020 7.8% Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020

33%

$25.7M

33

11

SALES VOLUME

UNITS SOLD

D AY S O N M A R K E T

28.6% 2021 vs 2020 45.9%

63.3% 2021 vs 2020 57.7%

19% 2021 vs 2020 41.7% Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020

22

6%

Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020

Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020

2021 ANNUAL MARKET REPORT

Marina Days on Market

Average vs Median Sales Price

35

$900K

28

$775K

21

$650K 14

$525K

7

Q4 2020

Q1 2021

Q2 2021

Average

Q3 2021

Q4 2020

Q4 2021

Q1 2021

Q2 2021

Q3 2021

Q4 2021

Median

$75M

Average vs Median Sales Price

by Quarter

Closed Sales by Quarter

Closed Sales Volume by Quarter

100

$900K

75

$775K

$60M

$45M $650K

50 $30M

$525K

25 $15M

Q1

Q1

Q2 2020

Q3

Q4 2021

Q1

Q2 2020

Q3

Q4 2021

Q2

2020 Average 2021 Average

Q3

Q4 2020 Median 2021 Median

23

2021 ANNUAL MARKET REPORT

Results Driven Experts

Gary Paul Baker 831.717.7959

gary@montereycoastrealty.com DRE#02111657