2025 Mining Pulse - Issue 2

THE MINING I S S U E 2 | T U E S DAY 4 F E B R UA R Y 2 02 5

3-6 February 2025 CTICC, Cape Town South Africa

Join the conversation | @miningindaba | #MI25

FUEL YOUR KNOWLEDGE – TODAY’S INTERACTIVE WORKSHOPS AWAIT! MINISTERIAL SYMPOSIUM ‘25 – NOT JUST A CONVERSATION, BUT A DEFINING MOMENT FOR AFRICA’S MINING FUTURE – UNITY IN VISION, POWER IN ACTION! As Africa stands at the crossroads of unprecedented opportunity, the time to forge a unified mining value chain is now. This year’s symposium brought together government leaders, industry visionaries, and key stakeholders to drive tangible progress in policy harmonisation, investment, and regional economic integration.

WORKSHOP 3 Unlocking potential: Value addition and industrial transformation in Africa Tuesday, 04 February

CTICC2

09:30-11:00

Sponsored by:

WORKSHOP 4 Mining and Zero harm: achieving the goal

Breaking Barriers, Unlocking Potential

Tuesday, 04 February

Africa’s immense mineral wealth holds unparalleled promise, yet regulatory hurdles and fragmented strategies have long stalled progress. The symposium tackled these pressing challenges – streamlining permitting, strengthening resource stewardship, and advancing downstream value addition – ensuring Africa’s minerals drive its own economies. As nations move beyond pit-to-port models, the focus on local beneficiation is proving essential for energy security, industrial growth, and long-term prosperity.

CTICC2

13:00-14:30

Sponsored by:

WORKSHOP 5 Do responsible mining standards really drive positive outcomes for mining in Africa

A Collective Path to Sustainable Growth The symposium was more than just dialogue – it was a commitment to action.

Tuesday, 04 February CTICC2

Key roundtable sessions focused on:

15:30-17:00

Sponsored by:

• Permit Issuance & Exploration – Streamlining processes to accelerate investment and unlock Africa’s mineral potential.

• Resource Stewardship – Ensuring fair revenue distribution, job creation, and sustainable community benefits.

• Downstream Value Addition – Driving industrial growth by shifting from raw exports to local processing and manufacturing.

By addressing these critical areas, the symposium laid the groundwork for a more sustainable, selfsufficient, and prosperous African mining sector.

With global demand for critical minerals surging, Africa made bold strides to claim its place at the forefront of the mining industry. By adopting best practices, harnessing technology, and strengthening collaboration, the symposium laid the groundwork for a mining sector that champions inclusive and sustainable development.

The time for Africa is now. United in vision, its leaders charted a bold course toward sustainable growth.

Venue: CTICC 2 | Floor 3 | Watsonia Room.

Laura Nicholson, Head of Content & Strategic Partnerships

*Open to all delegates, limited seating available – arrive early to secure your spot.

Students at the forefront: taking center stage in mining’s future What does an explorer of the future look like?

New approach, new investment opportunities?

Thabo Stephen Kgarabjang Tuesday, 04 February Disruptive Discussions Stage, CTICC1

11:15-12:00

Disruption required - time for a new deal with local communities?

DISRUPTIVE DISCUSSIONS 09:05-09:45 Africa’s infrastructure potential: Replicating a successful Brazilian business model

13:20-14:05 Tailings: Launch of the Global Tailings Management Institute

09:45-10:30 Industrialising Africa - what will it take to increase investment in midstream and downstream manufacturing facilities?

14:05-14:45 A new talent pool - preparing tomorrow’s next generation of miners in an evolving technology world

10:30-11:15 Transforming governments’ permitting process - can the dream become reality?

Tumelo Tsoku Tuesday, 04 February Disruptive Discussions Stage, CTICC1

YOUR TUESDAY AGENDA – 4 FEBRUARY 2025

12:00-12:45

The communities we leave behind: mine closure Helene-Marie Stander Tuesday, 04 February Sustainability Series Stage, CTICC1

13:00-14:00

Tailings: launch of the Global Tailings Management Institute

14:45-15:05 Leader spotlight – Harmony 15:05-15:25 Leader spotlight – Glencore

11:15-12:00 What does an explorer of the future look like? New approach, new investment opportunities?

15:25-15:45 Leader spotlight – B2Gold Corporation

12:00-12:45 Disruption required - time for a new deal with local communities?

15:45-16:05 Leader spotlight – Government of United States and KoBolds Metals

12:45-13:20 Leader spotlight – Ivanhoe Mines

16:05-17:15 The auto industry moves upstream - how the world’s leading automotive firms are securing critical minerals

Phumudzo Gift Munyai-Matshotshi Tuesday, 04 February Disruptive Discussions Stage, CTICC1

TECH & INNOVATION HUB

13:30-14:05

The big question - How Africa can develop a globally competitive infrastructure platform Ramphabana Khethani Tom Tuesday, 04 February Intergovernmental Summit Track, CTICC 2

14:00-14:45

A new talent pool - preparing tomorrow’s next generation of miners in an evolving technology world Peace Zowa Tuesday, 04 February Disruptive Discussions Stage, CTICC1

14:05-14:45

Why aren’t miners putting circularity at the heart of their strategies?

Sage Govander Tuesday, 04 February Sustainability Series Stage, CTICC1 4

9:15-10:00 The New Edge - 4Sight and Armada – powered by Starlink with their Microsoft technology support delivering mining solutions at the edge.

10:00-10:45 Is policy a blocker to technology and innovation?

13:20-14:05 What is the role of technology in building and undermining sustainability in African mining?

14:05-14:25 Tech in Action: Transforming tire maintenance

10:45-11:05 Tech in Action session

14:25-15:10 Technology and net-zero: how technology can enable decarbonisation

11:05-12:05 JOGMEC Session: Building Supply Chain Robustness in the Development of Mineral Resources Together

15:30-16:15 Are people the biggest technological progress blocker?

12:05-12:25 Tech in Action: Patented AZTEC Upflow Reactor (AZ-UFR): Gold Recovery from Tailings and Reduced Detox Reagents

16:15-16:35 Tech in Action session: Applicability of video analytics in health and safety

16:15-17:15

Join the conversation: @miningindaba | #MI25

Join the conversation: @miningindaba | #MI25

5

YOUR TUESDAY AGENDA – 4 FEBRUARY 2025 INVESTMENT PROGRAMME 10:00-10:05 Host welcome remarks 10:05-10:50 Panel Discussion: Commodity outlook – an African perspective

INTERGOVERNMENTAL SUMMIT 12:00-14:00 The Global Investor Commission on Mining 2030 - Ensuring Inclusion of Local Voices & Equitable Distribution of Benefits

Intergovernmental Summit Track 1

14:00-16:00 The Dealmakers Den

09:15-10:15 Vision to Action - role of governments in advancing value chain development for critical energy transition minerals in Africa

11:00-11:45 Commodity Roundtables - Graphite, Lithium and Rare Earth Elements 11:45-12:00 Commodity Roundtable Summary

SUSTAINABILITY SERIES 09:00-10:00 What needs to change to harness the full potential of ASM?

14:00-15:00 Is achieving the social license to operate enough to future proof African mining?

10:00-11:00 Corruption in mining why is it so hard to talk about?

15:15-16:15 Who owns Africa’s minerals? What could Africa gain from Minerals as a Service?

11:00-12:00 Are we leading the right way to Future-Proof African mining?

16:15-17:15 Why aren’t miners putting circularity at the heart of their strategies?

13:00-14:00 The communities we leave behind: mine closure

Technology Adoption and Transformation in the African Mining Industry Be a catalyst for change in Africa’s technology revolution! Complete our survey and play a pivotal role in shaping the future of Mining Indaba and driving the conversations that matter most.

YOUR TUESDAY AGENDA – 4 FEBRUARY 2025

Today’s Social Agenda

Happy Hour 16:30-17:30

Wine Farm - Exhibition Hall

09:10-09:15 Chairperson opening address

10:15-12:00 Country Showcase - Republic of Angola 12:00-13:00 Turning extraction into value addition-catalysing inclusive growth on the continent

16:30-17:15 A nexus approach - framing African minerals within the global security matrix

14:00-14:45 The big question - How Africa can develop a globally competitive infrastructure platform?

17:15-17:20 Closing remarks

Intergovernmental Summit: Investment Forums 10:00-2:00 Nigeria Investment Forum - *Strictly by invitation only* 14:00-16:00 1st Korea-Africa Critical Minerals Dialogue *Strictly by invitation only*

Intergovernmental Summit Track 2 09:30-11:00 An Integrated Approach to the Development of South Africa’s Critical Minerals

14:00-15:00 Diamonds-critical for Africa’s socio-economic development

11:00-11:30 Bras de fer au Sahel : gagnant-gagnant ou perdantperdant? / Tensons in the Sahel: A Win-Win or LoseLose Game?

15:30-16:00 In Conversation with 16:00 - 17:30 Country Showcase-Republic of Zambia

11:30-13:00 Country Showcase – Republic of Guinea

(Strictly by invite only)

18:00–22:00 Sponsored by:

15:30-15:45 Partners of Africa-United Kingdom 15:45-16:30 The climate imperative - Prioritising a continental just energy transition

Anglo American Gala Dinner Share your insights – Scan to complete the survey today!

14:45-15:30 The symbiotic approach-strengthening global mineral supply through greater African industrialisation

Where Ambition Meets Investment

A high-stakes arena where junior mining companies pitch Africa-focused critical minerals projects to elite investors. Only the most compelling ventures will capture the attention of industry leaders, turning vision into reality. Innovation, opportunity, and investment—this is where mining’s future takes shape.

SA’s new mining cadastre due mid-year, but will it work? David McKay, Miningmx

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THE South African government’s new mining cadastral system is due to be launched midyear but officials at the Minerals Council were unsure if it would be road-worthy.

“The minister (Gwede Mantashe) confirmed on Sunday that they were on track to deliver,” said Mzila Mthenjane, CEO of the Minerals Council of South Africa. “Whether that means it is being installed and it will function or it will then be tested, I am uncertain,” he said, adding that the presumption is it would be working once installed.

PGM Consortium consisting of Canadian companies GeoTech Systems, MITS Institute and Gemini GIS & Environmental Services were selected in January 2024 to design and implement a new mining cadastre replacing the derelict SAMRAD (South African Mineral Resources Administration System).

The administrative task is enormous, however.

Migrating data from SAMRAD to the new cadastre also requires resolving between a 2,500 to 3,000 licence application backlog, although Mthenjane said much of the backlog consisted of duplicate applications, known as ‘over-pegging’ which would be rejected.

Said Hugo Pienaar, chief economist at the council: “They are testing it (cadastre) in the Northern Cape initially. It is being tested as we speak. So the question is now if it runs there do they palm it out to the broader country? I don’t think we should commit to the middle of this year, but when it goes live it would have been tested,” he said.

The need for a professional cadastral system to replace SAMRAD, which is vulnerable to manipulation and is not transparent, could not be more urgent.

Mthenjane said South Africa had a massive window of opportunity to promote itself to exploration companies and lenders, especially given political crisis in the so-called ‘coup belt’ in West Africa and the Sahel.

He also said South Africa’s exploration industry should “not carry the burden of legislation” by demands for empowerment. This is in terms of proposed amendments to the Minerals and Petroleum Resources Development Act which is being contemplated by Government.

Mantashe said previously there was no demand for empowerment for companies conducting exploration in South Africa, although regional offices still ask for it prior to consenting to a prospecting licence application.

“The impact of the cadastre is huge in terms of exploration,” said Mthenjane. “It does instill confidence if you can prospect for a new mine and give hope that new orebody could be found and development of mine where see investment in mining.

“I’ve described the Northern Cape has last frontier for mining in South Africa if you look at the activity there. But we do need to look at ourselves as relative to other countries and take advantage of what’s happening unfortunately there.

“We need clear rules on prospecting and separate exploration from mining. Exploration must be less demanding in terms of environment and less demands on exploration and not carry burden of legislation in terms of demand for empowerment,” he said.

“Rather defer those requiresments once you have proven an orebody and see the value. Then you can think of localisation. But at the exploration stage you need to give prospects all the support they need to prove a viable and lucrative mining development.”

Mining Indaba 2025 A United Force Driving Africa’s Future

A new era begins – bold, powerful, and unstoppable. Industry leaders, investors, and governments stand together, forging partnerships that will redefine Africa’s mining landscape. This is the moment for action, innovation, and transformation.

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“This partnership reaffirms Mining Indaba as the key platform for critical discussions on policy, investment, and sustainability, ensuring it continues to drive impact and create opportunities across Africa.” – Mr. Frans Baleni, Chairman of the Executive Advisory Board, Mining Indaba, Hyve Events SA. “Formalising our partnership with Hyve Events SA strengthens our commitment to Mining Indaba as a premier platform for collaboration and sustainable growth in Africa’s mining sector.” – Mr. Jacob Mbele, DMPR Director General.

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Leading the Way in Sustainable Growth and Industry Transformation Featured Sessions For Downstream Buyers:

Corruption in mining – why is it so hard to talk about?

Tuesday, 04 February

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Mining Review Africa’s focus is to bring you the highest standard of technical content and mining-relevant news on a daily basis, facilitated by an editorial team with extensive experience in the field.

CTICC1, Sustainability Series Stage

The auto industry moves upstream – how the world’s leading automotive firms are securing critical minerals Tuesday, 04 Februar

10:00-11:00 Moderator: • Benjamin Katz, Sector lead, mineral supply chains, OECD Centre for Responsible Business Conduct Speakers: • David Liebscher, Deputy Head of the International Corruption Unit , National Crime Agency • Sean Gilbertson, CEO , Gemfields • Joanne Jones, Strategy and Communications Director, EITI • Werner Duvenhage, MD, Rio Tinto Iron Titanium – Africa Operations

CTICC1, Disruptive Discussions Stage 16:05-17:15 Moderator: • Dr. Martyn Davies, Partner, Arena Partners

Speakers: • Hon. Dr. Situmbeko Musokotwane (MP), Minister of Finance and National Planning, Republic of Zambia • Mike Whitfield, MD, Stellantis Sub-Sahara Africa and South Africa, Stellantis • Tatiana Aguilar, Mining and Metals Industry Manager, World Economic Forum • David Jarvis, Acting COO, Industrial Development Corporation • Riaz Haffejee, SVP, Toyota South Africa Motors Director, Michelin

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Copper is set for a breakout period over the next decade and Africa could become the biggest beneficiary of its rise, according to a panel of commodities experts.

whether we can cooperate and work with China to develop new projects. If we are not going to be able to work effectively with China, we’re going to threaten our ability to meet those targets.”

An estimated 8.5mt pa additional copper is required for the energy transition and global electrification trends, potentially supercharging a market which is already stretched by supply-demand fundamentals.

Africa could provide the model for cooperation with China, Horrocks-Taylor said, pointing to the successful collaboration on projects such as Kamoa copper in DR Congo and Simandou iron ore in Guinea.

Panellists in the forum were unanimous in their support for the metal, but renowned copper devotee Nicholas Snowden was most bullish of all.

“If we don’t work effectively with China, we won’t meet those targets,” he said Raj Khatri, head of metals and mining EMEA, Canaccord Genuity Ltd said markets were poised ready to fund copper developments, they just needed opportunities.

Snowden – head of metals and mining research at Mercuria Energy Trading – tagged copper “the new oil” four years ago and despite modest price movement in the intervening period, he is more convinced than ever the market is turning in favour of higher prices.

“When I said it was Commodity Outlook the new oil, I was looking at the second half of this decade as the point at which the scarcity crunch would impact the market,” Snowden told a packed Investment Programme auditorium. “I think we are already at the point where the raw material market has priced in that scarcity and the deficits we are seeing in the concentrate market will pass into the metal market.”

Standard Chartered Bank’s Richard HorrocksTaylor was equally adamant copper demand would be strong in the coming decade but questioned how supply would keep up.

“The world needs 60mt of copper by 2050, and to develop those mines will require a huge amount of capital and people,” he said. “The issue is with the geopolitical dynamics now out in the world is Join the conversation: @miningindaba | #MI25

“Strategically, everyone wants copper but there are very few opportunities out there,” he said.

“The high-quality projects will have big demand but also smaller projects will be in demand as well, because it is just so hard to get copper.”

Such enthusiasm is good news for countries taking a prominent role on the global stage. DR Congo recently became the world’s No.2 copper producer, Zambia has plans to double production and Botswana is emerging as another copper province with MMG and Australian mid-tier Sandfire Resources undertaking major expansions.

Snowden said Africa was better placed to benefit from copper’s surge than it was during the last commodity super cycle.

“A lot has been learnt by companies and governments in Africa,” he said. “There is now genuine dialogue between stakeholders and symbiotic growth together.“I think this is just the beginning of a golden age for African mining.”

15

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Adding value to metals and minerals in Africa emphasised as a must at Mining Indaba

By Martin Creamer, Editor, Mining Weekly

Investing in African Mining Indaba presenters on Monday spoke repeatedly of the need for Africa to add value to its metals and minerals on the continent itself rather than allowing this to take place elsewhere.

Digging African raw ore out of African ground and shipping it to richer countries for processing was displayed as a practice that must end as fast as possible.

All African countries are now being urged to process mined material in Africa for the benefit of the continent amid the reality of the continent hosting significant reserves of industrially important minerals that include manganese, copper, nickel, cobalt, titanium, vanadium, lithium, and rare earths, as well as most of the world’s chromium and platinum group metals (PGMs).

With the growing demand for these minerals, it was repeatedly posited on day-one of Investing in African Mining Indaba that the continent has a duty to ensure that its people share in the wealth that African countries host.

African leaders were urged to take charge of the growing demand for critical endowments to implement Africa’s industrialisation, South Africa’s re-industrialisation and put an end to the export of raw ore.

On the South African front, it was pointed out that South Africa’s PGM production alone in 2021 reached a decadehigh 285 t and notwithstanding the decline in the PGM basket price, in 2023, South Africa was the world’s largest producer of PGMs, accounting for 73% of global new mine supply of platinum, 38% of palladium and 81% of rhodium supply to global commodity markets.

Moreover, South Africa has about 37% of the world’s manganese ore reserves, and also leads in manganese production with an output of 7.2-million tonnes in 2023.

But despite the country formerly earning significant value-added revenue by processing the ore domestically into ferromanganese, only 2% of the major manganese ore available is now processed in South Africa.

The same applies to the processing of the large volumes of mined chromium into ferrochrome, also a strong former South African-held market that was badly impacted by the high prices that Eskom began charging for electricity “We’re mindful that for local beneficiation to succeed, we need to guarantee consistent, reliable, and affordable electricity supply. Despite the recent setback, I can assure you that, now that we have reached over nine months with no electricity interruptions, government is working on measures to reduce administered prices, and in so doing reduce the cost of doing business in South Africa,” South African Minerals and Petroleum Resources Minister Gwede Mantashe promised during his keynote Mining Indaba presentation covered by Mining Weekly.

“We’re also considering sustaining commodity-linked tariffs, as well as consolidating and applying incentives and other existing financial instruments to support and encourage beneficiation,” Mantashe revealed.

What is being urged by African leaders is for mineral beneficiation to extend as close as possible to point of production so that the continent can put an end to the export of wealth from communities that are in significant need of it.

“We’re, however, alive to the fact that there can be no mining or beneficiation without exploration; hence, our steadfastness to reignite exploration investment and, in so doing, turn South Africa into an exploration site,” Mantashe disclosed.

“Our efforts in this regard are beginning to take shape, as evidenced by progress made since we launched the country’s exploration fund during the last Mining Indaba.

“During the previous Mining Indaba, we committed to putting in place a new mining licensing system to enhance efficiency and transparency in our systems and thereby guarantee regulatory certainty in the South African mining Industry.

“I can report to you that the department and the PMG Consortium are currently finalising the design and configuration phase which is at the heart of the new system. This phase covers all aspects of mining regulations, value chain including, inter alia, the client management functionality, rights application submission and processing, and the rights application tracking functionality,” Mantashe added.

“This phase of the project is anticipated to be completed in the next few weeks, and will, thereafter, be followed by the testing and deployment of the new system into the department’s ICT system. Despite the ongoing work to develop the new mining licensing system, I can also report to you that the department continues to clear the backlog in prospecting and mining applications.

Between our last meeting here and December 2024, the department processed and finalised 114 mining rights, 982 prospecting rights, and 385 mining permits and ancillaries,” Mantashe reported.

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Empowering Tomorrow’s Mining Leaders with Bold Ideas and Visionary Voices

Penelope Masilela, Multimedia Journalist– Mining Review Africa

THE FUTURE OF MINING IS YOURS TO DISCOVER Unlock industry secrets, expert insights, and critical discussions all in one place. Visit miningindaba.com/MITV now and subscribe to @MiningIndabaTV on YouTube to never miss an update. The countdown to tomorrow’s mining world starts now!

A glimpse of the pioneering speaker lineup: Martina Biene

Rentia van Tonder

Chairperson and MD, Volkswagen Group Africa

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Darias Jonke Head of Government & International Relations Americas, Anglo American 18

Neal Rigby Corporate Consultant Mining, SRK CONSULTING Join the conversation: @miningindaba | #MI25

In today’s competitive and evolving mining industry, operational efficiency, safety, and profitability are essential drivers for success. Volvo has introduced advanced digital solutions to enhance operational efficiency, safety, and profitability in the construction and mining industries. These solutions, leveraging telematics data and digital technologies, reduce CO2 footprint, costs, and waste, supporting digital transformation in site management.

Mörkberg said one of the most crucial benefits of Volvo’s digital solutions is the improvement in safety standards. By tracking machine performance and usage, Volvo’s systems can identify potential issues before they become major problems, allowing for proactive maintenance. This not only reduces the risk of accidents but also ensures equipment is always running at optimal performance, further reducing costly repairs and delays.

During the Tech in Action session at Investing in Africa Mining Indaba, Andrey Komov, Head of Productivity International Region, Volvo Construction Equipment, and Niklas Mörkberg, Head of Consultancy and Training, Volvo Construction Equipment, highlighted how the company is assisting the mining industry in embracing digital transformation.

“Cost management is crucial for businesses, as it helps optimise fleet utilisation, reduce idle time, and increase productivity. Telematics analytics provide detailed insights, reducing fuel consumption, cutting maintenance costs, and extending equipment life, ultimately leading to improved bottom-line profitability,” explained Mörkberg.

Volvo’s integration of telematics and digital technologies offers fleet managers real-time insights into machine performance, usage, and health, enabling informed decisions to improve efficiency and reduce downtime, ultimately increasing productivity and profitability.

In an era where sustainability is more important than ever, Volvo’s digital solutions play a pivotal role in reducing environmental impact. Komov added that the ability to monitor fuel consumption and emissions in real time allows companies to optimise their fleets for maximum efficiency. By identifying areas where fuel usage can be minimised, operators can reduce the carbon footprint of their operations significantly.

Komov explained that real-time production monitoring systems, commonly used in mixedbrand fleets, provide a seamless integration of data from different machines, allowing operators to manage all equipment on-site through a single platform, saving time and resources, and resulting in a cohesive and efficient management system.

Join the conversation: @miningindaba | #MI25

Additionally, digital systems enable better waste management by tracking equipment usage, reducing overuse, and ensuring that materials are used efficiently. By regulating these factors, companies can effectively reduce waste, thereby achieving their environmental and corporate social responsibility objectives.

19

Africa Needs Mineral Security, Too. As delegates converge on Cape Town discussions once again centre on Africa’s critical minerals.

Africa has long served as a raw materials supplier and with the recent passing of Europe’s Critical Raw Materials Act, Europe is seeking partnerships to secure minerals in return for greater in-country processing.

Yet a recurring question will be asked in the halls of Cape Town’s Convention Centre: Critical to whom?

I AM THE NEW FACE OF MINING FAMA MINE PLANNING ENGINEER SENEGAL

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Developing local value chains will be vital for Africa’s mineral security. Africa consumes just 4% of global fertiliser production, and exports most of the 30 Mt it produces annually. Local alternatives, like crushed rocks can yield better results while removing carbon dioxide. In Brazil, the Rochagem movement has pioneered rocks for crops, cutting costs by up to 80% while maintaining or improving productivity.

The term ‘critical minerals’ is widely associated with the energy transition, but it’s true meaning is more nuanced.

Criticality has two parts. First economic importance and a lack of substitutes; and second, supply risk and vulnerability to disruption. Think less ‘critical to the energy transition’ and more in a ‘critical condition in hospital.’

Similarly, sub-Saharan Africa consumes just 3% of global cement production – 128 kg per person compared to a world average of 549. The high price of imported cement inhibits development, infrastructure, disaster recovery, and coastal protection. A revolution is underway with limestone calcined clay cement, using local materials and reducing emissions by up to 40% and costs by 25%.

Both criteria depend on perspective – whose security is being protected. Europe already enjoys robust supply chains for most minerals, making its critical raw materials list selective – not just energy transition minerals like lithium and cobalt, but also beryllium for missiles, tantalum for electronics, and even coking coal – yes coal – where Europe lacks local supply.

For globally integrated mineral-based products like solar panels and batteries, affordability remains elusive. Despite the DRC producing 75% of the world’s cobalt, Africa will account for just 0.1% of the lithium ion battery market by 2030. Latin America faces similar disparities – exporting 1980 kt of lithium between 2002 and 2022, but receiving only 13 kt in finished goods – over 150 times less.

But what if we flipped the question and asked – what are the mineral security needs of Africa’s people? What would a critical raw materials list look like from the perspective of the Global South – or even the world’s poor?

New economic models, like as ‘Minerals as a Service’, propose leasing rather than selling raw materials, capturing royalties at each transformation stage.

Extending this approach, manufacturers could be required to sell finished goods back to mineral-producing countries at affordable prices. European support is crucial, as is technical cooperation – especially given that the minerals sector receives just 0.23% of ODA.

Such a list would be starkly different: cement for housing and infrastructure, fertilisers for agriculture, salt for nutrition and food preservation, and chlorine for water purification, among others.

Viewed through a universal lens of human security, mineral security shifts from national security and capturing the benefits of extraction, to access, affordability, and sufficiency for all. Just as food security aims for universal nutrition, mineral security must address human development needs – shelter, mobility, communication, energy and sustenance.

BECAUSE OUR METALS ARE ESSENTIAL TO THE ENERGY TRANSITION AND TO HUMAN DEVELOPMENT

Daniel M. Franks

If Europe wants stable access, it must go beyond offering a larger share of processing for minerals destined for export. Instead, it must help shape a fairer approach to mineral security – one where affordability and sufficiency enable Africa’s people to meet their own needs.

announced new ICE vehicle sales bans set to take effect from the end of this decade onwards. More recently, measures to protect local manufacturers from low-cost Chinese BEV imports have contributed to weaker overall automotive sales.

Auto sector uncertainty stalls PGM markets in 2025 Wilma Swarts, Director of PGM Research, Metals Focus The automotive industry has long been a cornerstone of the global economy, shaping demand for a wide array of raw materials, particularly platinum group metals (PGMs), which have been crucial in controlling vehicle exhaust emissions since the mid-1970s. Until recently, internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles dominated the sector and accounted for as much as two-thirds of PGM demand.

From 2020 onwards, a divergence in powertrains became more pronounced, signalling a potential shift in the types of raw materials required and casting uncertainty over the prospects for PGM demand.

In the automotive sector, PGM demand hinges predominantly on three variables: production volumes, powertrain selection, and emission regulations.

Global vehicle production is expected to reach nearly 93M units this year, 3M more than in 2024 but still 3M below the 2017 peak. For context, a decade ago, general automotive forecaster consensus was that vehicle production by 2020 would be 103M, but in reality only 74M vehicles were manufactured. Now, forecasters are expecting global production to reach the 2017 peak only by 2026.

Essentially, for every ICE car not produced, the industry

loses between 3g-7g of PGM demand. The trend of lower global production negatively impacts PGM demand.

The shift in powertrains from ICE to pure battery electric vehicles (BEVs) is another critical factor. After years of planning, large-scale adoption of BEVs had been held back by several factors, such as infrastructure constraints, the price premium for a BEV compared to the equivalent ICE model, and consumer reticence due to lingering concerns over range anxiety. However, a combination of punitive and rewarding incentives introduced by governments, along with supply chain disruptions caused by the pandemic, helped accelerate adoption. For example, BEV production grew from 1.7M units in 2019 to 4.7M units in 2021. Volumes doubled in 2022 and breached 10M units by 2023. By 2024, pure BEVs accounted for 13% of global vehicle production, while hybrids (a combination of battery and internal combustion powertrains) made up 22%. For context, the 14.2M BEVs expected to be produced this year will displace some 1.8Moz of PGMs, almost 30% of South African mine production.

The political landscape, along with incentives and penalties, also plays a key role. In Europe, EV incentives have increasingly given way to penalties for car manufacturers, who can only meet their CO2 targets by ensuring a larger share of BEV sales. Additionally, many countries have

In the US, potential rollbacks of EV incentives by the Trump administration and the threat of punitive import tariffs have clouded BEV outlooks but could help sustain PGM demand.

It remains unclear whether reduced BEV production will be offset by higher ICE and hybrid production or lead to broader production cuts, as witnessed in early 2024.

Historically, higher PGM loadings per vehicle have supported demand. These are driven by stricter emissions regulations—such as Euro 7 in Europe, EPA (Environmental Protection Agency) and CARB (California Air Resources Board) standards in the United States, and China 6 standards in one of the world’s largest vehicle markets. The tighter regulations typically require increased loadings which have helped offset the impact of BEV growth. However, the pace of regulatory tightening on vehicle exhaust emissions appears to have peaked. Neither OEMs nor policymakers are likely to prioritise stricter emissions standards in the near term, given the ongoing transition to BEVs. As a result, further gains from higher PGM loadings are limited, especially as the shift towards BEVs progresses, reducing reliance on traditional ICE technologies.

While the automotive sector will remain a mainstay of PGM demand in the years to come, as ICE vehicles will remain the dominant powertrain, evolving forces are reshaping its future. A legislative shift towards electrification has eased emissions regulations, while the expanding BEV market share is accelerating the decline in ICE production. That said, there may be some limited upside for ICE vehicles through the rollback of EV incentives and the imposition of tariffs on Chinese BEVs, though the road ahead is likely to be bumpy.

Estimated PGM demand displaced by BEVs PGM Demand Lost

Moz 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

THE

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The Minerals Critical to Africa’s prosperity

By Gareth Tredway, Tavistock

When it comes to OECD countries (think Europe, North America and Australia) the definition of the term Critical Minerals talks specifically to minerals that are a vital enabler for clean energy transitions.

Within that impressive number lies some of the world’s largest developed and undeveloped deposits of iron ore, coal, potash, manganese, gold and PGMs, along with large deposits of green minerals, such as copper, lithium and graphite.

There are however other more traditional minerals that are themselves critical for another reason – they are essential to Africa’s prosperity and must be nurtured to ensure the benefits are felt by all stakeholders for generations to come.

Maintaining production from these mines for decades to come, and unlocking the giant greenfield deposits for the future, is something that requires all stakeholders ie. Governments, miners, investors and local communities to see eye-to-eye, with long term agreements in place to ensure all parties benefit.

As the United Nations Environment Programme points out, Africa is home to some 30 percent of the world’s mineral reserves, eight per cent of the world’s natural gas and 12 per cent of the world’s oil reserves.

In most African countries, natural capital accounts for between 30 percent and 50 percent of total wealth.

Of course, many of these mineral deposits involve bulk commodities, requiring large investment and infrastructure in place to allow for them to be delivered to global markets via seaborne trade.

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Today’s discussions at the Investing in Africa Mining Indaba, will involve leaders from all of stakeholders.

This is vital to ensure we can find solutions to finally developing some Africa’s vast mineral reserves for the benefit of the continents people.

These fixes are also starting to feed into the export numbers with Bloomberg just reporting that the country managed to increase coal exports via the Richard’s Bay Terminal for the first time in 7 years during 2024.

South Africa is a good example where years of steady supply of iron ore, manganese and coal to the rest of the world, suffered several infrastructure failures, first with power and parastatal, Eskom’s well publicised loadshedding, followed by the more recent troubles with national freight giant, Transnet.

While, South Africa is just one example of how a coming together of stakeholders can ensure a countries’ commodities are efficiently exploited for everyone’s benefit, there are no doubt similar cases on the continent where transparent dialogue between stakeholders could expedite the development of major mining projects.

While this has the obvious effect miners profits and therefore taxes and export revenues, it also dampens investor confidence in the country, restricting growth.

Positively, a coming together of industry and government that was discussed at last year’s conference, has seen promising results over the past 12 months.

In conclusion, while much has been made regarding the world’s transition to a greener future, many fossil fuels and precious metals, remain in high demand and will continue to be consumed for decades. It is vital that Africa continues to benefit from this demand by attracting investment and ensuring their stable supply. Let’s talk.

In January, Eskom marked 300 days without load shedding, a milestone last reached as far back as June 2018, or 6 and a half years earlier.

At Transnet, news emerged a few weeks ago agreements with some of the country’s biggest miners were imminent and could pave the way for them to spend billions of rand to help fix crucial rail lines and boost shipments.

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