Mining Pulse Issue 4

THE MINING I S S U E 4 | T H U R S DAY 6 F E B R UA R Y 2 02 5

3-6 February 2025 CTICC, Cape Town South Africa

Join the conversation | @miningindaba | #MI25

THANK YOU FOR JOINING US ON THE JOURNEY TO FUTURE-PROOF...

AFRICA’S MINING INDUSTRY

Transforming Today. Leading Tomorrow. Unlocking Africa’s Boundless Future.

YOUR THURSDAY AGENDA – 6 FEBRUARY 2025 YOUNG LEADERS PROGRAMME 09:00-09:10 Opening Address 09:10-09:30 Ministerial perspective: South Africa’s G20 presidency and African critical minerals 09:30-09:50 Ministerial perspective: Botswana, mining and the future of the industry 09:50-10:30 Leadership: Fireside Chat with CEO

10:30-11:10 Voices of the Future: Young Professionals Perspectives on the Controversies Surrounding African Mining

From Pitch to Victory: The Dealmakers Den Winner Rises

11:35-12:15 Geopolitics, Africa and the real business of critical minerals 12:15-12:50 Technology & Innovation where you need it most in mining?

12:50-13:30 Future Proof: careers, skills and values for the future workplace

SUSTAINABILITY SERIES 09:00-09:30 Joint OECD-LME-RMI event on Responsible Mineral Supply chains: Making criticality count at the regional level

11:30-13:00 Joint OECD-LME-RMI event: Beyond derisking: new approaches for mobilising responsible finance for minerals

09:30-11:00 Joint OECD-LME-RMI event: Transparency from the ground up: emerging approaches for connecting mines to the supply chain for more credible due diligence

Technology Adoption and Transformation in the African Mining Industry Be a catalyst for change in Africa’s technology revolution! Complete our survey and play a pivotal role in shaping the future of Mining Indaba and driving the conversations that matter most.

Share your insights – Scan to complete the survey today!

Enjoy an exclusive trial

Adrian O’Brien from Midnight Sun Mining

Adrian O’Brien from Midnight Sun Mining has clinched the first round of The Dealmakers Den! With Frontier Rare Earths as runner-up, we celebrate all participants for bringing their A-game to the stage!

Young professionals believe mining can develop Africa – the industry should be confident about this too Young professionals desire to stay in mining. The industry must continue to provide opportunities for career growth and advancement into leadership positions.

Young talent is excited about AI and technology believing that it will enhance their careers.

There is a widespread belief that the industry can grow African economies and develop its people. Therefore, mining should position itself strategically as a catalyst for development.

Although some young professionals believe that government should apply light touch regulations to artisanal mining, the majority strongly think it should be completely professionalised and regulated.

50%

78%

6 in 10

intend to be in the industry for 10+ years.

feel very positive towards the impact that AI and Technology will have on their career. agree that mining helps drive economic growth and development in Africa.

56% agree that government and regulators should regulate artisanal mining in Africa.

Young professionals believe that mining companies should do more to share the benefits and value of mining with African host countries.

72% agree that African countries don’t receive their fair share of benefits from their mining industry.

Our conclusion is young professionals see themselves in the industry for the long-term, taking up senior leadership roles. They believe mining can drive African development but think Africa does not receive its fair share of the benefits. They want government to regulate artisanal mining and do more to professionalise and support the industry.

As young professionals believe in mining’s capacity to develop the continent, the opportunity exists to empower this generation to help explain mining to their more skeptical communities and even governments. Young people see technology and AI as likely to enhance their careers and see both as good for the industry.

Brunswick Survey (Jan 17–29, 2024); participants: 255 professionals in the mining industry aged 20–35 across South Africa (84%) and 16 other countries; respondents based on gender: 51% Male / 49% Female.

As you can see below, when the LBMA asked leading analysts for their predictions for 2024, even the most bullish of them all was off by almost 10% in terms of the average price, and almost 30% from the record high gold spot price of $2,788.54.

As we move into 2025, it is our view that a sustained high gold spot price is here to stay, with likely geopolitical uncertainty under Donald Trump’s presidency potentially adding further upside to the price. For the miners we are already at a very healthy gold price which should lead to continued strong free cash flows. This should lead to improved share price performance, buybacks, dividends and further M&A.

Analyst's Gold Price Predictions for 2024

2400 2300 2200 2100 2000 1900 1800

Winning Forecast

Actual 2024 AvgPrice

Analysts’ 2024 Forecast Avg

Source: LMBA

Gold’s Journey Through 2024 The year 2024 was one which unfolded with a series of high-stakes events and pressing global challenges.

From the lurking threat of ongoing global inflation, potential stagflation and perhaps even a recession.

US rate expectations were a material driver of the gold price, when easing inflationary pressures led expectations for rate cuts by the US federal reserve, which helped break gold’s $2,000/oz resistance level in March 2024 and saw it quickly rally to $2,390/oz.

This was further supported by China’s economic slowdown, in part due to their ongoing property crisis.

Physical gold exchange-traded funds (ETF’s) returned to net buying in June, whilst central bank demand remained strong following Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent weaponisation of the US dollar. This saw gold repeatedly make new all-time highs, reaching $2,787/oz at the end of October 2024.

which saw a reduction in rate cut expectations, over-riding the impacts of enhanced geopolitical turmoil on the gold price in the short term.

This underscores just how outstanding gold’s performance was last year, far exceeding analyst’s predictions.

It was sadly a year fraught with international conflict that raged on and challenged geopolitical landscapes and global stability, although the direct impact of these on the gold price was unclear.

Inflation, rate expectations and geopolitical uncertainty that drives central bank demand remained more significant drivers of the gold price

Two Types of People’s Bank Impact

Gold exited the year just short of all time highs, with the spot price of gold rosing a whopping 27.2% from 1st January 2024 ($2051.4/oz) to 31st December 2024 (2609.1/oz)

Evidently there were other drivers of this price asides from wars and the wider economic backdrop, which caused the uncoupling of the traditional interest rate and gold spot price relationship.

Central bank demand remained strong throughout the year, especially from the likes of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) who sought to diversify away from US treasuries and US economic hegemony and thus stocked up on gold.

As we mentioned, we also saw exchange-traded funds (ETF’s) colloquially termed the “people’s central bank” (not to be confused with the aforementioned PBOC) move from being net-sellers to net-buyers of the gold metal as well, further supporting the price, and as signal from investors that they wanted the metal in their portfolios.

The United States election saw Donald Trump elected as the next president on the 5th of November which put a pause to gold’s gains, as it was then viewed his policies may prove more inflationary,

The gold mining sector has lagged the gold spot price through 2024 (the Golden Prospect Precious Metals NAV was up 20.20% vs a 27.0% gold price gain in sterling), in part due to market concerns that cost inflation pressures may squeeze margins. Producer cost pressures appear to be easing, with lower fuel, labour and steel cost inputs, so unlike the post Covid-19 period, these margins should be more sustainable.

Golden Prospect Precious Metals (LSE:GPM) provides investors an opportunity to gain access, through a UK vehicle, to the lagging global precious metals mining equities, and with a greater potential upside to the gold price. GPPM has historically performed well during period of spot gold price rallies such as during the 2008 Financial Crisis and the COVID pandemic as you can see in the chart below.

Golden Prospect Precious Metals Share Price 140 120

Share Price (GBX)

2024: gold up over 25%, miners lagged, but Trump’s policies should be good for gold, and miners’ margins look more sustainable.

Looking Ahead for Gold and the Miners

Gold Price Per Troy Oz ($)

Golden Prospect Precious Metals – Mining Pulse Indaba

Forecasts Fell Short, Very Short

100 80 60 40 20 0

17 13 12 15 14 21 18 19 16 10 /11 24 22 20 23 09 2/ 1/2/ 1/2 1/2/ 1/2/ 1/2/ 1/2/ 1/2/ 1/2/ 1/2/ 1/2/ /2/ 1/2/ /2/ /2/ /2/ 1 1 1 1 1/

Robert Crayfourd

Keith Watson

Robert Crayfourd and Keith Watson are the cofund managers of Golden Prospect Precious Metals (LSE:GPM), the investment trust investing in smaller cap gold and precious metal mining equities.

8

Join the conversation: @miningindaba | #MI25

Join the conversation: @miningindaba | #MI25

9

We connect mining CEOs & funds 1-2-1.

121 Mining Investment events connect portfolio managers and analysts from institutional funds, private equity groups and family offices with mining company management teams, both in-person and online.

Featuring cash-generating producers, near-production development companies, project generators, and exploration projects, 121 Mining Investment events offer something for everyone.

Get in contact to find out why 121 Mining Investment is the world’s leading dedicated mining investment event series.

OUR EVENTS

Innovation. Strategy. Impact.

– Catch It All Here!

645 Mining companies

The most critical mining discussions, all in one place. Unlock industry secrets, expert insights, and groundbreaking strategies.

Don’t Miss Out! Visit miningindaba.com/MITV now and subscribe to @MiningIndabaTV on YouTube to stay ahead.

Raw insights, bold strategies – hear it first from the experts

Qualified investors taking meetings

Marketing Executive, Manganese Metal Co

Ricardo Rosa Microsoft Africa’s Director for Enterprise Commercial

Benitha Tambwe

Meetings on average per company

24-25 June 2025

New York

Hong Kong

24-25 September 2025

17-18 November 2025

24-25 November 2025

09-10 February 2026

Global Online

Dubai

London Autumn

Cape Town

Executive Director, Mandela Mining Precinct

Expert-Head Partnerships Monitoring, DRC Ministry of Mines (CTCPM)

APAC ada.calvert@weare121.com

Americas (Western) josie.robertson@weare121.com

10

Join the conversation: @miningindaba | #MI25

EMEA dee.sember@weare121.com

Americas (Eastern) lauren.grant@weare121.com

Julie Courtnage

15

1-2-1 meetings between mining companies and investors

09-10 June 2025

London Spring

Dan Marokane

10,457

OUR UPCOMING 121 MINING INVESTMENT EVENTS

12-13 May 2025

Madelein Todd

CEO, Eskom

2,914

To find out more about our other 121 events please reach out to our dedicated account managers: For investors passes joao.oliva@weare121.com lucy.kelly@weare121.com

www.weare121.com

INVESTMENT INNOVATION IMPACT The Best of 121 Mining Cape Town 2025 121 Mining Investment Cape Town 2025 brought together 93 junior mining companies to meet with 530 investors from both Africa and abroad, for 1-2-1 meetings and a full two-day conference programme covering the key themes for the global and regional mining and investment communities.

The conference commenced with two fantastic opening panels, discussing topical issues dominating the African mining narrative today, including the effect of geopolitics on the industry, the ways in which governments can work to increase involvement in the value chain across Africa, creating more

Amy Rotman, Content Director, 121 Events & The Assay

opportunities for local communities, and how legislations can change to best allow African nations to prosper from the mining of their mineral rich lands.

As the two-day event came to an end, mining company executives and investors were able to enjoy a selection of local wines, gins, drinks, and foods to backdrop of Cape Town’s beautiful Table Mountain.

The discussions and deals made at 121’s Mining Investment Cape Town event pave the way for more upcoming 121 events across the globe, including London, New York, Hong Kong, and Dubai.

THE

B2Gold plans to build $129m underground mine in Namibia

By David McKay

CANADIAN gold miner B2Gold said a preliminary economic assessment of the Antelope deposit near Otjikoto mine in Namibia supported development of an 65,000 ounce a year underground gold mine requiring pre-production capital of $129m.

Including gold processed from low-grade stockpiles at Otjikoto, production will total 110,000 oz/year.

The Antelope deposit is located four kilometres from the original Otjikoko pit. Underground mining will be from 2029 through 2032. All-in sustaining costs (AISC) at the mine is forecast to be $1,095/oz.

B2Gold will spend $10m this year derisking the Antelope deposit. This will include early work planning, getting project permits and committing to long-lead orders. Technical work will also continue while cost assumptions would be refined, the company said in its PEA. In terms of permitting, the Antelope deposit is contained within the existing Otjikoto mining lease.

Production from Antelope comes as Otjikoto – which once figured in the reckoning of former South African mining house Avmin in the Nineties – ramps down in 2026. Underground mining operations at the mine’s Wolfshag reserve are expected to continue through to 2026, according to the company in January last year.

14

B2Gold said the project had strong economics. Using a gold price assumption of $2,400/oz, which could be conservative given today’s price for the metal ($2854/ oz), the mine will yield an after-tax cash flow of $185m.

Assuming a discount rate of 5%, the net present value after tax of the project is $131m, generating an internal rate of return of 35% and a project payback on pre-production capital of 1.3 years.

There is also the potential for expansion. B2Gold said the Antelope deposit remains open along strike in both directions “highlighting strong potential for future resource expansion”.

B2Gold said last month it would also continue to invest in Mali, where the military government is currently in an arm-wrestling match with Barrick Gold amid allegations of unpaid taxes.

B2Gold plans to invest $10m in exploration at its Mali mine, Fekola. “From a B2Gold perspective, we have seen a reduction in risk since the signing of our settlement agreement,” Clive Johnson, CEO of B2Gold, told Reuters.

Join the conversation: @miningindaba | #MI25

Ready to make your mark in the digital mining space?

Don’t just participate – lead the conversation.

Contact us today and let your story shape the future of mining! fred.noce@miningindaba.com

INVESTOR ENGAGEMENT PROGRAMME The Assay and 121 Group are offering 12-months of promotional coverage to our unparalleled network of institutional resource investors. Get your company, story and news seen by the right people.

MAGAZINE PROFILES

NEWS RELEASE REPORTING

WEBSITE PROFILE

SOCIAL MEDIA COVERAGE

ASSAY WEEKLY FEATURES

VIDEO INTERVIEWS

Future-proofing communities: Shifting focus beyond mining dependence Penelope Masilela, Multimedia Journalist– Mining Review Africa As mining continues to play a dominant role in many communities, particularly those heavily reliant on its economic contributions, the need to explore sustainable alternatives is increasingly urgent. Futureproofing communities requires a comprehensive approach that taps into diverse stakeholder perspectives, experiences, and expertise.

In mining communities, the question arises: is it realistic to build alternative livelihoods that are both sustainable and viable in the long term? To answer this, key industry leaders, including Kgosi Nyalala Molefe, John Pilane, Senior Traditional Leader of the Bakgatla-Ba-Kgafela Traditional Community; Tebello Chabana, Senior Executive for Public Affairs and Transformation at the Minerals Council South Africa; Bongiwe Mabusela, Director of Empowerment Transactions Assessment at the Department of Mineral Resources & Energy; and Thabisile Phumo, EVP of Stakeholder Relations at Sibanye Stillwater, have discussed the challenges of future-proofing and transitioning away from mining as a primary economic driver.

The importance of planning for mine closure Chabana stressed the importance of planning for mine closure well in advance. He argued, “Mines should plan with closure in mind. The loss is finite, and at some stage, development must shift to other local economies during the life of the mine.” Chabana acknowledged that many mines are mature and have left a significant legacy, making the planning process challenging but critical for future sustainability. He also highlighted the instability of local municipalities, which often fail to provide essential services, particularly in mining areas. He believes addressing this issue is key to futureproofing mining communities and ensuring that local provisions are adequate for long-term sustainability.

Role of mining companies in communities Phumo emphasised the critical role mining companies play in the local community. She highlighted that mining companies cannot be separated from the socio-economic challenges surrounding them. According to Phumo, futureproofing communities requires collaboration between all parties involved to ensure the long-term sustainability of these areas. “We need to work together to create a common agenda,” she said, adding that it is vital to acknowledge the contributions of local communities, mining companies, government, and indigenous knowledge.

Inclusive development Kgosi Pilane echoed the importance of inclusive development. He reflected on the progress made since 2016, when mining companies would often discuss communities without involving them. “We have seen progress, but mining companies must understand that their role extends beyond operating a mine. They must actively engage with the local community and consider their future once mining ends,” he said.

Pilane emphasised that mining companies should focus on diversifying business opportunities, including agriculture, infrastructure, and other sectors, rather than solely relying on mining. “Communities often resist alternatives because mining-related opportunities provide immediate economic benefits, but they must understand the longterm potential of diversified economies,” he argued.

He also criticised past practices where mining companies built exclusive infrastructure, such as hospitals and schools, that were inaccessible to the broader community. “Mining companies must create inclusive development projects that benefit the entire community, not just their workers,” Pilane said.

In conclusion, Chabana emphasised the importance of preventing coercion, violence, and breaking the law to force companies to make decisions under duress.

17

Barrick Gold reaffirms its commitment to sustainability

By Rebecca Campbell, Creamer Media Senior Deputy Editor

Global gold and copper miner Barrick Gold Corporation was committed to sustainability, highlighted the company’s group sustainability executive Grant Beringer. He was speaking at the annual Digby Wells Sustainability Breakfast, on the fringes of the Mining Indaba 2025 conference, in Cape Town.

“The space that we’re in, sustainability, is everchanging,” he pointed out. “Sustainability for Barrick is the bridge to achieving the UN [Sustainable Development Goals]. It’s how we create long-term value for all our stakeholders.”

He emphasised that all the aspects of sustainability were interconnected. Further, all actions must be rooted in science to be successful and sustainable.

He cited Barrick’s support of, and involvement in, the initiative to create a single global consolidated mining standard, to replace the current four major mining standards, issued by different industry bodies. This initiative involved the World Gold Council, the International Council on Mining and Metals, the Towards Sustainable Mining initiative, and the Copper Mark. “We are intimately involved with this initiative.” Fortunately, there was significant commonality between the existing standards.

The idea, he explained, was to create a single, credible, clear and accessible standard which even junior miners could apply. The proposed standard 18

First World Problems Michelle Manook, Chief Executive FutureCoal Are we investing in a responsible energy transition?

Or travelling down an ideological path where rich nations with a high standard of living are creating a crisis for the rest of the world.

structure involved four areas, namely ethical business practices, worker and social safeguards, social performance, and environmental stewardship. These four areas embraced a total of 24 categories.

McKinsey’s 2022 analysis estimated the energy transition will cost US$275 trillion—2.7 times the combined GDP of 195 countries. That’s over $9 trillion a year—nearly $4 trillion more than what we’re already spending on EVs, batteries, and renewables.

Outsiders, including NGOs, had to be involved in the process. “The days when the industry can mark its own homework are past,” he affirmed.

Who will pay for this transition? The expectation is, we will.

The draft consolidated standard proposed three performance levels – foundational practice, good practice, and leading practice. Foundational practice would be the starting point, the level of minimum industry standards, for companies that needed extra time and/or resources to reach the level of good practice, which was the level in line with full industry standards. He pointed out that having companies on the foundational practice level was much better than them not adopting standards at all.

The public consultation process for the new standard has just been completed, he reported. But there would be a future public review process, as well.

Also regarding sustainability, Beringer highlighted Barrick’s own, internal, Biodiversity Residual Impact Assessment [BRIA] initiative. “It empowers our teams to measure our biodiversity impact, both positive and negative. It gives us tangible metrics that we can measure against.”

Join the conversation: @miningindaba | #MI25

The irony is this ‘feel good, do right’ movement has the developed world going backwards and the developing world unable to move forward.

The United Kingdom—the world’s first major economy to phase out coal—saw once-thriving coal communities now facing high unemployment, child poverty, and soaring energy bills. Despite this, in 2023, UK offshore wind power tariffs increased by 66% to make renewables, the preferred energy option, viable.

New Zealand’s government found its “Net Zero” ambitions would drain more public funds than the combined budgets for welfare, health, education, defence, and environmental programmes.

By 2024, electricity prices across Europe had risen more than 70% from 2020 levels. At the height of the energy crisis, some European countries energy prices surged by up to 500% between 2021—2022. In the UK, the energy price cap increased by over 270% from 2020—2023, forcing some households to avoid using energy altogether during winter.

Like dominoes, one-piece falls, and the rest follow.

Jobs lost. Living costs soaring. Regional economies wiped out. Infrastructure grossly underfunded.

So, I ask again, have we invested in this (biased) energy transition responsibly, justly, realistically?

Join the conversation: @miningindaba | #MI25

Prematurely abandoning any secure baseload energy does not make for robust, prosperous economies.

Not seeking to understand the available technologies which allow energies to reduce emissions meaningfully is negligent. The inability to admit and embrace that there is more than one solution is arrogant.

If we are to “Future-Proof African Mining, Today” then let us retire ‘transition’ jargon in favour of an Energy Addition approach.

Responsible investment in this approach is about helping nations build resilience. It is not about creating problems. It is about solving them.

Our Sustainable Coal Stewardship roadmap embodies this.

It guides coal-producing and consuming nations to maximise the value of their coal resources for both economic and environmental benefits. Every strategy is rooted in proven technologies already driving growth in countries like China and India, while helping them meet environmental targets.

FutureCoal’s latest report, “Roadmap for a Sustainable Coal Value Chain,” shows how investing in existing global coal fleet with ultra-supercritical technology could inject over $1.5 trillion into the global economy.

The report also highlights how coal can produce highvalue products—steel, cement, aluminium, hydrogen, chemicals, and critical minerals—all while ensuring economies and communities thrive, leaving no one behind.

We’re working to shift attitudes toward financing these investments to help countries like South Africa to secure energy and grow their economies.

Moreover, we must ensure that South Africa leads thermal power technologies. Tertiary institutions like the University of Witwatersrand, with the support of companies, such as Eskom and Sasol, have the potential to claim a leading position in advanced coal innovation, which will need unbiased, inclusive policies.

Our global energy ‘problems’ and opportunities are not that different it seems.

19