MBP E-Newsletter: October 27/2023

E-Newsletter MBP district meetings continue in dsfsfa Ste. Rose, Swan River and Neepawa An update from MBP October 27, 2023

mbbeef.ca

Producers from odd-numbered districts are invited to attend a meeting in an even-numbered district if it is convenient for them, but they are not eligible to vote in the director elections there.

Advance registration is appreciated to assist with meal counts for in-person meetings.

Please consider this your invitation to attend a fall 2023 Manitoba Beef Producers (MBP) meeting in districts 8, 12, and 14 where director elections are required, or to participate in a virtual meeting on November 7 to learn more about what MBP has been doing on your behalf this year.

The in-person meetings in districts 8, 12, and 14 will start at 4:30 p.m. with some presentations. There will be a break around 5:45 p.m. for a free beef on a bun meal and fellowship. At 6:30 p.m. presentations will resume and director elections will be held. There will also be an opportunity to explore possible resolutions for debate at the 45th AGM or to suggest action items for MBP.

There will be an evening virtual meeting to provide updates to those unable to attend an in-person meeting. It will be held on Tuesday, November 7 starting at 7 p.m.

Regarding resolutions, if you are unable to attend a district meeting, MBP has a form available on its website for producers wishing to put forward resolutions to be considered for possible debate at the 45th AGM. Re: director elections, if you would like to let your name stand for director in an even-numbered district, or, if you know of someone who would be a good addition to MBP’s board of directors, please contact our General Manager Carson Callum for more details. Nominations for even-numbered districts remain open until those respective meetings.

Time to Complete the October Agri-Climate Impact Reporter Producer Survey (Information From Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada) The Agroclimate Impact Reporter (AIR) is a tool to help connect Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) with people in Canada's agricultural community. AAFC relies on its network of AIR volunteers to provide information regarding agroclimate impacts on farm operations across the country.

The AIR network provides valuable and reliable data that are mapped and used in the assessment and development of policies and programs including AgriRecovery and the Livestock Tax Deferral Provision, which can provide assistance to the industry during extreme weather and climate conditions and events.

AAFC is collecting AIR reports for AIR for the month of October. This is the final AIR survey of 2023. To let the Science and Technology Branch of AAFC know what the conditions are like this month in your area, please respond to one of the links below: English French To view previous Agroclimate Impact maps, follow this link. Or see some of the other resources we produce on the AAFC Weather and Drought home page.

To learn more about AIR, follow this link. Thank you for your participation in this important initiative.

Resolutions Suggestion Form for 45th Manitoba Beef Producers AGM MBP’s board of directors is now accepting in writing suggested resolutions for potential debate at its 45th Annual General Meeting set for February 8-9, 2024, back at the Victoria Inn Hotel & Conference Centre at 3550 Victoria Avenue in Brandon.

If the resolution is deemed to be in order by MBP’s Resolutions Committee it will be considered for debate at the AGM. In consultation with the resolution’s author, proposed resolutions may be subject to editing by MBP for clarity and to ensure consistency of formatting across all resolutions.

Please note: If the resolution covers off matters on which MBP is already conducting advocacy work, it may be deemed to be redundant and not taken forward for debate so as to ensure there is time to debate resolutions on emerging matters. As well, it is also important that proposed resolutions deal with something that is potentially achievable and clearly state the actions you are asking MBP to consider taking. The sample resolution format is below and two examples are on the second page.

Send the proposed resolution and your contact information to info@mbbeef.ca to the attention of General Manager Carson Callum and Policy Analyst Maureen Cousins. Or, you may fax it to 1-204-774-3264 or mail it to 220-530 Century Street, Winnipeg MB R3H 0Y4. For resolutions to be considered in time to be published in the December edition of Cattle Country prior to the 45th AGM, they need to be received by MBP no later than 9 a.m. Thursday, November 9, 2023. Otherwise they will be accepted for consideration until 9 a.m. Friday, January 26, 2024. All resolutions for debate will be posted on MBP’s website.

Whereas

Whereas

Be it resolved to recommend that Manitoba Beef Producers

Your name: Address: (include MBP District number if known) Phone Number:

Email Address:

Sample Resolutions Arising from Past Manitoba Beef Producers District Meetings Example 1 Whereas blackbirds cause significant losses to producers’ crops.

Be it resolved to recommend that Manitoba Beef Producers lobby the Minister of Sustainable Development to include blackbird damage as eligible for claims under the Wildlife Damage Compensation Program for Crop Damage.

Example 2 Whereas Manitoba Agriculture recognizes that bale grazing of beef cattle can save producers time, effort and money and help distribute valuable nutrients to the soil to enhance future productivity; and Whereas even though this practice is well utilized by Manitoba’s beef producers, they currently receive no compensation for wildlife damage to bales left in fields or pastures for feeding purposes.

Be it resolved to recommend that Manitoba Beef Producers lobby the provincial government for changes to the Wildlife Damage Compensation Program for Crop Damage to ensure that baled hay that remains on fields for use as part of an extended feeding regime becomes eligible for compensation related to wildlife damage.

With extreme drought conditions and feed shortages across the prairies, beef cattle producers are making critical decisions that can have a big impact on herd productivity and profitability that goes beyond the summer season.

Register for this live November 15 BCRC webinar to learn key insights on how to give your herd its best chance to withstand severe or prolonged drought. Click on the graphic to register.

8:00 PM in MB

Government Of Canada Extends Workforce Solutions Road Map and Introduces New Wage Requirements Under the Temporary Foreign Worker Program (October 26, 2023 Employment and Social Development Canada News Release) The Government of Canada is

supporting Canadian employers and helping them adapt to current economic conditions. Canada is experiencing continued low unemployment rates and while there are some signs that labour shortages are easing, the rebound is inconsistent, and certain sectors, such as hospitals, food manufacturing, construction, and accommodation and food services, are still facing challenges.

In April 2022, the Government introduced the Temporary Foreign Worker (TFW) Program Workforce Solutions Road Map to help employers fill job vacancies in the wake of labour shortages.

The Minister of Employment, Workforce Development and Official Languages, Randy Boissonnault, announced changes to the Road Map, to better reflect current labour market conditions and the economic outlook for the future. These extended measures will be in place until August 30, 2024, and will be reviewed as labour market and economic conditions continue to evolve in the following months. They include: • continuing to allow employers in seven sectors with demonstrated labour shortages to hire up to 30% of their workforce through the TFW Program for positions under the provincial or territorial median hourly wage; • maintaining the maximum duration of employment for positions under the provincial or territorial median hourly wage at up to two years; and • adjusting the Labour Market Impact Assessment (LMIA) validity period from the current 18-month maximum to a maximum of 12-months to better respond to the labour market.

Along with these temporary measures and to better support workers and address concerns of wage suppression, employers will now be required as of

January 1, 2024, to annually review temporary foreign workers’ wages to ensure that they reflect increases to prevailing wage rates for their given occupation and region of work. Through periodic wage increases, these reviews will ensure that employers continue to pay temporary foreign workers at the prevailing wage level throughout their period of employment.

The TFW Program Workforce Solutions Road Map helps employers respond to current labour market needs, while helping to ensure that Canadian jobs and wages are prioritized. Market conditions will continue to be carefully monitored to ensure that the program adapts to changes in the Canadian economy while protecting temporary foreign workers in Canada.

Quotes “Temporary foreign workers are essential to Canada’s economy, and many sectors continue to rely on their contribution when faced with persistent job vacancies amid acute labour shortages. That is why we are extending these temporary measures for an additional 10 months.

However, they will be adjusted as the labour market continues to evolve rapidly following Canada’s unprecedented economic recovery. At the same time, we are also introducing permanent new wage requirements that will require employers to review wages annually when prevailing wages go up, in order to avoid wage suppression and ensure that workers’ wages are protected and can grow.

Employers must understand that the Temporary Foreign Worker Program should be supporting wage growth in this country, not preventing it.”

– Minister of Employment, Workforce Development and Official Languages, Randy Boissonnault continued on page 8

Government Of Canada Extends Workforce Solutions Road Map and Introduces New Wage Requirements Under the Temporary Foreign Worker Program Quick facts • Employers can continue to hire up to 30% of their workforce through the TFW Program in the following seven sectors: Food Manufacturing (NAICS 311); Wood Product Manufacturing (NAICS 321); Furniture and Related Product Manufacturing (NAICS 337); Accommodation and Food Services (NAICS 72); Construction (NAICS 23); Hospitals (NAICS 622); and Nursing and Residential Care Facilities (NAICS 623).

•

The unemployment rate was at 5.5% in September 2023, and has remained unchanged for three consecutive months.

•

As of October 8, 2023, the program continued to see an increase in demand in the last fiscal year (2023-24), with the number of files created rising by approximately 40% (year to date) compared to the same period last fiscal year.

•

As of April 2023, the program has transitioned to the LMIA Online Portal as the primary method to submit LMIAs. This shift to an online system will further improve processing and is helping employers address their labour market needs quickly.

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The Government recently announced the Recognized Employer Pilot (REP), which will help streamline processes for employers with the highest standards of worker protection. REP will be more responsive to labour market shortages and will reduce the administrative burden for repeat employers who demonstrate a history of program compliance, while ensuring temporary foreign workers are protected.

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As part of the Government’s broader commitment to help protect temporary foreign workers from mistreatment and abuse, Budget 2021 committed $49.5 million over three years to implement a new Migrant Worker Support Program to better support temporary foreign workers by addressing power imbalances between employers and workers.

Chief Veterinary Officers from across Canada collaborate to protect animal health and welfare (October 26, 2023 Canadian Food Inspection Agency News Statement) This week, federal, provincial and

territorial Chief Veterinary Officers came together to advance a range of pressing animal health issues at the 2023 Council of Chief Veterinary Officers Annual Meeting in Guelph.

The annual meeting provides an important opportunity for officials from across Canada to discuss shared challenges and opportunities on national issues of animal health and welfare, livestock production and public health. Topics on this year's agenda included Foot-and-Mouth Disease preparedness, and the status of Canada's Foot-and-Mouth Disease vaccine bank, chronic wasting disease, and opportunities to collaborate on One Health projects.

In addition to participating in engaging sessions, representatives had the opportunity to tour the Ontario Veterinary College Animal Hospital, Equine Guelph and the Dairy Research Centre.

Dr. Mary Jane Ireland, Canada's Chief Veterinary Officer represented the Canadian Food Inspection Agency.

"The Council of Chief Veterinary Officers Annual Meeting provides a forum for veterinary leaders from across Canada to come together to broaden our network and create linkages among our work," she said. "Using an integrated One Health approach and our shared expertise, we are working together to ensure robust animal health from coast-to-coast-to-coast."

Animal health is a shared responsibility. The Council of Chief Veterinary Officers harnesses the experience and expertise of federal, provincial, territorial government veterinarians with the aim of ensuring consistency of approaches, improved information sharing, and better outcomes for animals and Canadians.

Manitoba Beef and Forage Production Conference You’re invited to Working On the Farm with Hands-On Science!

December 12 & 13, 2023 Victoria Inn, Brandon Manitoba Manitoba Agriculture, Manitoba Beef & Forage Initiatives and Manitoba Beef Producers invite you to attend this inaugural event.

Conference presentations include:

Smart Farm Technology – Dr. Susan Markus, Livestock Research Scientist, Lakeland College Key Findings from the Canadian Cow-Calf Surveillance Network – Dr. John Campbell, Western College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Saskatchewan Setting Up a Grazing Plan - Anneliese Walker, a Grazing Success mentor for MaiaGrazing, a market-leading grazing management software solution.

Breakout topics include:

Pasture Rejuvenation; Using Implants in Beef Production; Calving Troubleshooting; Intercropping for Forage Production; Farm Transition; Beef Nutrition and more…

Each breakout technical presentation will be paired with a producer presentation to show how the science can be applied on farm.

And an evening Banquet featuring Lewellyn Melnyk – Author, farmer and mental health advocate, a journalist by trade and a farmer by choice.

For conference details and to register click the link below.

Manitoba Beef and Forage Production Conference – Program and Registration For more information contact: 1-844-769-6224, agriculture@gov.mb.ca

/ Non classifié Call for Producer Participation in a ResearchUnclassified Project on Bovine Anaplasmosis Between 1968 to 2000, Canada had at least one outbreak every decade

What is Bovine Anaplasmosis?

A production-limiting disease caused by the blood-borne bacterium Anaplasma marginale Causes anemia, fever, reduced weight gain, decreased lactation and calving success, spontaneous abortions, and death Spread by blood-contaminated equipment and tools, re-use of needles, ticks, and biting flies

Economic Impacts & Disease Control The economic cost of anaplasmosis is estimated at $660 USD per animal (2021)

Since 2008, the number of anaplasmosis cases in Canadian cattle herds has increased Sources of infection are often unknown. Multiple cases over the last decade suggests that anaplasmosis may become established in some regions of Canada

Vaccines are not available to prevent disease and antibiotics do not eliminate infection Risks of disease include importation of infected animals, husbandry practices, difficulty identifying infected animals, and tick or biting fly presence

Project Goals

What we will do

Project Outcomes

1. Determine the occurrence of anaplasmosis within beef cattle herds in western Canada

1. Test beef cattle herds, ticks and flies for Anaplasma

2. Survey herd management practices that may affect the risk of anaplasmosis

2. Conduct an online survey to document current cattle husbandry practices

Current representation of risk factors for bovine anaplasmosis, including where anaplasmosis occurs & animal management practices

3. Develop a chute-side test that can detect infected cattle quickly

3. Use cattle blood to develop a test that detects Anaplasma marginale, but not bacteria that don’t cause anaplasmosis

Quick and simple diagnostic tool to detect animals infected with A. marginale

Development of practical and appropriate methods for preventing the introduction and spread of anaplasmosis in beef cattle herds.

Quick and effective response to infections for improved animal health and welfare

How can you get involved?

1

Allow us to get blood samples from your cattle once per year.

2

Grant us permission to access pastures to collect ticks and horseflies.

3

Complete a questionnaire on cattle management practices

*Results are for research purposes only and will not be reported to animal health authorities *All participants in blood collection will be compensated monetarily

Funded by:

For more information or to volunteer, please contact Shaun Dergousoff, project lead (shaun.dergousoff@agr.gc.ca) Project Researchers: Kateryn Rochon - University of Manitoba Neil Chilton - University of Saskatchewan Justin Pahara - Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Dale Douma - Manitoba Agriculture & Resource Development

October 24, 2023 FCC’s 2023 Cattle and hog outlook update: Markets show two different price trajectories Martha Roberts Economics Editor This is the third and final quarterly update to our 2023 Outlook for cattle and hogs published in January. Over the last two weeks, we updated our Outlooks for dairy and major crops.

The 2023 drought will ensure diminished margins for some western livestock producers, but the overall cattle outlook is positive as strong global and domestic demand bolsters consumption even in the face of high beef prices. Production, given the small beef herd, will struggle to keep up to that demand. For the hog sector, profitability will continue to be challenged by lower prices. Domestic consumption growth will provide a muchneeded boost as pork’s prices will lure more consumers than either beef or chicken, but with drought-induced feed costs rising, the next three months aren’t likely to get any easier than they’ve been recently.

Prices: Two trajectories for two sectors Some good news: prices expected for the next three months (the outlook period) have either stabilized or risen since our August outlook for the cattle and hog sectors. Forecasted cattle prices are, on average, a whopping 33% higher year-over-year (YoY) and 50% higher than their five-year averages for each class as demand remains strong and supplies tighten. Our projected feeder hog prices (Ontario and Manitoba) haven’t changed since August and are still well under last year’s prices and the five-year averages. Isowean prices also continue to lag YoY and the five-year average.

Table 1: Prices stop falling for hogs and continue to rise for cattle

Sources: Statistics Canada, AAFC, USDA, CanFax, CME Futures, and FCC calculations Cattle sector margins forecasted to be positive Cow/calf sector profitability will continue to be robust throughout the outlook period, given the underlying strength of prices. There’ll be more pressure on cattle sector profitability in areas where the drought impacted feed grains. That also holds true for finishing feedlots who may see pressure from U.S. feedlots for Canadian

feeder cattle, pushing those prices higher. Given the strength in demand, however, feedlot margins should be positive throughout the outlook period.

Isowean margins continue to see heavy pressure Isowean profitability turned negative in 2022, but 2023 has been particularly challenging with falling prices and increased expenses. Producers who have weathered the storm can look ahead to 2024 when margins are expected to take a jump in the right direction.

This year, we’re monitoring the North American drought’s impact on U.S. and Canadian cattle herds, red meat demand and input costs as the most significant forces on livestock profitability.

About those feed costs The trend we pointed to in our August update of feedlots’ early spike in corn imports has stabilized as a longerterm trend. Canadian imports of U.S. corn destined for western operations have continued, and as of September, are just below the record imports of the 2021-22 crop year.

There’s a direct link to feedlots’ bottom lines. In 2023, it costs more to use homegrown feed (barley) than imported corn (Figure 1). While these costs don’t include the import costs of transportation, they also discount the savings that the use of corn enables. Feeding properly processed corn can use up to 10% fewer pounds per day relative to barley use. There’s some relief in the extra supply of off-grade, non-feed crops made available from the drought but, overall, the use of Canadian crops as feed will suppress margins.

Figure 1: Drought makes imported corn the feed of choice

Sources: CanFax, Statistics Canada, CME, FCC calculations Ontario corn prices have also risen from our August outlook update but remain at 2022 average prices. At that price, they’ll be well in excess of the five-year average, applying more pressure to hog margins.

Table 2: Ontario corn prices remain elevated

Sources: Statistics Canada, AAFC, USDA, CanFax, CME Futures, and FCC calculations North American beef herd continues to shrink The 2023 drought has led the cattle sector to cull more, despite the strength in markets. While the strong prices we’re seeing now are normally associated with heifer retention and herd rebuilding efforts, the dryness across the U.S. Midwest and the Canadian prairies has prompted increased herd liquidation since 2021. Heifer and cow slaughter has trended generally higher each year as a percentage of total cattle slaughter (Figure 2).

Figure 2: Heifer and cow culls higher in 2023 than recent historical trends

Source: AAFC Lower beef production hampers supplies As noted in August, the upward trend in slaughter produced an initial bump in beef production — and record U.S. production in 2022 — that has since turned into lower numbers of slaughter-ready cattle. In 2023, Canadian and U.S. beef production is down YoY as a result.

As of September 30, the year-to-date Canadian beef production (fed and non-fed) was down 6% YoY and the U.S. was down 2%. It may very well not pick up in the next two years for either country as there will likely

continue to be more reasons to cull than to not cull. Even when it’s time to reverse the trend, it’ll be neither quick nor simple to get more cattle on North American operations.

The drag on production will help to lower Canada’s beef stocks-to-use ratio (ending stocks/utilization) this year to 2.2% (Figure 3). That’s lower YoY and compared to the five-year average (2018 – 2022) and one of the lowest five-year average levels since the early 2000s.

The ratio accounts for lower utilization as well, with both domestic consumption and exports trimmed. Already trending down, it could near the lows of 2000 in 2024, suggesting beef prices have not yet reached their peak.

While high prices will undoubtedly deter some consumers, Canadian consumer preferences for beef remain strong, outpacing consumption.

Figure 3: Canadian beef in low supply

Source: USDA * Production includes imports; Utilization includes domestic use and exports In a similar response to North America’s lack of moisture, Argentina’s drought has sent the country’s beef production into high gear. In fact, global beef production is forecasted up for 2023 based on higher slaughter in several regions due to widespread drought conditions. In the European Union, high input costs are forcing liquidations.

There remains global demand for beef, with non-U.S. domestic consumption expected to rise 1.3% YoY. Notably, China, the world's second-largest beef consumer behind the U.S., is forecast to grow 3.0% YoY as the country’s burgeoning middle class continues to develop a preference for what was once almost exclusively a western staple. There are downside risks though. According to the International Monetary Fund’s latest World Economic Outlook, global GDP growth will slow from 3.5% last year to 3.0% this year and 2.9% in 2024, a development that will weigh on consumption in the months ahead.

Pork production

Total global pork production is expected to stay flat this year, with U.S. (1.4%) and China (1.1%) expected to grow, offsetting losses in the European Union (2.9%) and the U.K. (14.4%).

Canada’s pork stocks-to-use ratio shows the small YoY contraction in expected production – the latest year in a downward trend since the buying spree induced by the pandemic in 2020 and China’s African Swine Fever outbreak (Figure 4). The pork ratio, at 3.2%, is higher relative to beef.

Figure 4: China’s splurge-buying of Canadian pork may be over, but consumption shows resilience

Source: USDA * Production includes imports; Utilization includes domestic use and exports Production remains elevated compared to pre-2020 though, as does consumption, which will be fairly onesided. Canada’s exports are expected to shrink 8.0% YoY as non-U.S. pork consumption is forecast to be the same as last year’s and U.S. pork consumption is expected to drop 1.9%. One bright spot: China’s pork consumption will likely expand 1.3% YoY. Instead, this year’s total utilization for Canada will be supported by domestic use. Canadian pork consumption is slated to grow 6.8% YoY, thanks to the large differential in pork prices compared to chicken and beef, pork’s main competitors. Pork, in fact, was one of very few items in Canada’s Consumer Price Index basket that's had negative price growth in the last two years.

There’s good news mixed with some warning signs. Pork consumption has benefitted from that relatively favourable pricing, but it faces lacklustre demand. The FCC meat demand index (for beef, pork and chicken) shows that consumer preferences for beef and chicken exceed that for pork.

Bottom line Beef’s elevated prices at retail and in food service will take a bite out of consumption this year, but not as much as you might think. The loss of production, a direct result of the small beef herd, will take another bite. It speaks

to a coming year of solid returns for the sector. On the other hand, the hog and pork sector will benefit from a significant increase in domestic consumption, but that good news is tempered by expectations of a large dip in exports and the reality that Canadians are buying pork because it’s relatively less expensive.

Martha Roberts Economics Editor Martha joined the Economics team in 2013, focusing on research insights about risk and success factors for agricultural producers and agri-businesses. She has 25 years’ experience conducting and communicating quantitative and qualitative research results to industry experts. Martha holds a Master of Sociology degree from Queen’s University in Kingston, Ontario and a Master of Fine Arts degree in non-fiction writing from the University of King’s College. https://www.fcc-fac.ca/en/knowledge/economics/2023-cattle-hog-outlook-updateoctober.html?utm_source=Subscribe+to+FCC+email&utm_campaign=2419c4403eFCC_K_N_10_27_2023_EN&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_ecca3657d7-2419c4403e18276825&mc_cid=2419c4403e&mc_eid=10f0a6cdc3