Mackerras Pendulum Federal GOVERNMENT SEATS
OPPOSITION SEATS
Liberal National Other Total Majority 3 91 32 73 15
Labor / Ind / Greens majority
Mallee (Nat, Vic) Maranoa (Nat, Qld) Mitchell (Lib, NSW) Farrer (Lib, NSW) Bradfield (Lib, NSW) Murray (Lib, Vic) Parkes (Nat, NSW) New England (Nat, NSW) Wentworth (Lib, NSW) Riverina (Nat, NSW) Berowra (Lib, NSW) Mackellar (Lib, NSW) Curtin (Lib, WA) Moncrieff (Lib, Qld) Cook (Lib, NSW) Kennedy (Katter, Qld) Barker (Lib, SA) Groom (Lib, Qld) Gippsland (Nat, Vic) North Sydney (Lib, NSW) Warringah (Lib, NSW) Durack (Lib, WA) O’Connor (Lib, WA) Calare (Nat, NSW) Menzies (Lib, Vic) Fadden (Lib, Qld) Lyne (Nat, NSW) Hume (Lib, NSW) Forrest (Lib, WA) Grey (Lib, SA) Tangney (Lib, WA) Wide Bay (Nat, Qld) McPherson (Lib, Qld) Cowper (Nat, NSW) Canning (Lib, WA) Moore (Lib, WA) Mayo (Lib, SA) Hughes (Lib, NSW) Wright (Lib, Qld) McMillan (Lib, Vic) Flinders (Lib, Vic) Fairfax (Palmer, Qld) Kooyong (Lib, Vic) Goldstein (Lib, Vic) Sturt (Lib, SA) Wannon (Lib, Vic) Higgins (Lib, Vic) Fisher (Lib, Qld) Pearce (Lib, WA) Stirling (Lib, WA) Indi (McGowan, Vic) Hinkler (Nat, Qld) Bowman (Lib, Qld) Ryan (Lib, Qld) Aston (Lib, Vic) Bennelong (Lib, NSW) Dawson (Nat, Qld) Swan (Lib, WA) Casey (Lib, Vic) Boothby (Lib, SA) Longman (Lib, Qld) Dickson (Lib, Qld) Flynn (Nat, Qld) Herbert (Lib, Qld) Hasluck (Lib, WA)
20
5.7
Leichhardt (Lib, Qld)
18
5.6
Dunkley (Lib, Vic)
16
5.2
Burt (Lib, WA)
14 12 10 8 6 4 2
4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.0
Macquarie (Lib, NSW) Forde (Lib, Qld) Brisbane (Lib, Qld) Reid (Lib, NSW) Bass (Lib, Tas) La Trobe (Lib, Vic) Corangamite (Lib, Vic)
%
%
20
20
15
SWING TO LIBERAL / NATIONAL PARTIES
23.7 22.3 22.1 21.5 21.2 20.9 20.2 20.1 19.4 19.2 19.1 18.9 18.7 18.0 17.3 17.2 16.6 16.5 15.8 15.6 15.4 15.3 15.1 14.7 14.5 14.4 14.3 14.2 14.1 13.6 13.4 13.2 13.1 13.0 12.8 12.7 12.6 12.0 11.9 11.9 11.8 11.7 11.1 11.0 10.1 10.1 9.9 9.8 9.6 9.3 9.2 9.1 8.9 8.6 8.2 7.8 7.6 7.5 7.2 7.2 6.9 6.8 6.6 6.2 5.9
SWING TO LABOR PARTY
150 148 146 144 142 140 138 136 134 132 130 128 126 124 122 120 118 116 114 112 110 108 106 104 102 100 98 96 94 92 90 88 86 84 82 80 78 76 74 72 70 68 66 64 62 60 58 56 54 52 50 48 46 44 42 40 38 36 34 32 30 28 26 24 22
Labor Greens Independent 57 1 1
Total 59
Batman (Vic)
21.0
150
Wills (Vic)
20.8
148
Melbourne (Greens, Vic)
19.3
146
Grayndler (NSW)
18.1
144
Gellibrand (Vic)
16.6
142
Gorton (Vic)
16.2
140
Sydney (NSW)
14.7
138
Scullin (Vic)
14.4
136
Fowler (NSW)
14.3
134
Port Adelaide (SA)
14.1
132
Calwell (Vic)
13.9
130
Fenner (ACT)
12.7
128
Lalor (Vic)
12.2
126
Blaxland (NSW)
12.1
124
Cunningham (NSW)
11.9
122
Maribyrnong (Vic)
11.4
120
Chifley (NSW)
11.2
118
Kingston (SA)
9.8
116
Newcastle (NSW)
9.4
114
Watson (NSW)
9.2
112
Holt (Vic)
9.1
110
Denison (Ind, Tas)
8.9
108
Corio (Vic) Canberra (ACT) Hotham (Vic) Shortland (NSW)
7.8 7.4 7.3 7.2
106 104 102 100
Whitlam (NSW) Hunter (NSW) Werriwa (NSW)
6.6 6.2 6.1
98 96 94
Fremantle (WA) Barton (NSW) Blair (Qld) Franklin (Tas) Makin (SA)
5.9 5.4 5.3 5.1 5.1
92 90 88 86 84
Ballarat (Vic)
4.9
82
Rankin (Qld)
4.8
80
McMahon (NSW)
4.2
78
Adelaide (SA)
4.0
76
15
10
10
9
9
8
8
7
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
Isaacs (Vic)
3
3
Capric o
rnia (N at Petrie (Lib, Qld) , Qld)
s)
(Lib , Ta
Lyo ns
So lom on
32
30
28
0.6
0.8
1.3
1.5
24
26
Lib-Nat 53.5%
1 1
2
3.9 74 Oxley (Q ld) 3.8 Brand Melb 72 ( WA) ourn e Por 3.7 ts ( Vi Wak c) 70 efiel 3.6 d (SA Jaga ) 68 jaga 3.5 ( Vic G ) G Kin ri 66 3.2 gsf reenw ffith (Q ld) ord ay (NS 64 Sm 3.0 W) ith ( P N 62 ert Ri S 2.9 ch h ( W) m Bru W A) on ce 2.8 60 ( d (N Vic) 2.7 SW 58 ) 1.9 56 1.8 54 52
50 48 7 1. 46 1.6 44 ic) 1.4 (V ) 42 ld m 1.3 ol (Q ) 40 ish ton (Qld 1.2 Ch re y ic) e o l M Lil go ( V W ) 1.1 38 i S nd (N Be atta SW ) 0.9 N ( 36 ram on T) Par aters iari (N 0.2 P g n i L n ( Vic) McEwe 34 0.1 Dobell (NSW )
T)
2
(Li b, N
ther at / O Lib / Najority m
ib, WA) owan (L , NSW ) C 3.9 e (Lib 2 Gilmor (Lib, Qld) 3.8 er Bonn (Lib, Vic) NSW ) 4 in b, 3.7 k a De n (Li W ) o s 6 t r S e 3.2 Rob (Nat, N , NSW ) W ) S e b 8 ) 3.2 Pag say (Li (Lib, N d r s) , NSW u a Lin 3.1 T h 10 t , ib car (Lib (L 3.0 Ma 12 on naro W ) d d A) Bra n-Mo b, NS 14 2.8 ,S b i i e L (L Ed ks ( 2.6 16 rsh an a B 5 m 2. 18 ind 1 . H 2 20 1.9 22
Labor 46.5%
KEY 1.9
Swing required to take seat
24
Majority in seats
Result of general election, 7 September 2013 as adjusted for redistributions completed in January 2016 for New South Wales, Western Australia and the Australian Capital Territory. The NSW seats of Barton, Paterson and Dobell are shown in red to indicate that they are held by the Liberal Party but become notionally Labor under boundary changes.