Mackerras US Pendulum Electing Donald Trump 2016
REPUBLICAN STATES
STATES ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTE MAJORITY
530 527 520 516 513 505 496 490 479 475 469 466 460 452
19.9 19.3 18.4 16.0 15.7 14.4 14.3 13.7 13.6 12.4 11.2 11.2 10.2 10.2
441 431 425 422
Missouri Mississippi Alaska South Carolina
5.6 5.1
406 368
Maine District Iowa
4.8 4.3
350
%
20
North Dakota Oklahoma Idaho South Dakota Kentucky Alabama Arkansas Tennessee Nebraska Utah Montana Kansas Louisiana Indiana
9.9 9.1 8.4 7.5
413 412
%
Wyoming West Virginia
45.7
3
Hawaii California Vermont Massachusetts Maryland New York
17.5 16.2 15.2 14.7 14.1 11.8
7 62 65 76 86 115
Illinois Washington Rhode Island New Jersey Connecticut Oregon
9.1 8.8 8.4 7.3 7.2 6.2
135 147 151 165 172 179
Delaware
6.0
182
New Mexico
4.7
187
20
10
10
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3 Needed to Win
Georgia
270
2 1
ina
arol th C Nor
1.9
a
zon Ari
1.9 9
31
k
as br
str
i aD
2.9
200
Colorado
2.7
209
1 Ma
ine
Ne
Ne
va d
1.6 21
a
1.3
nia Michigan
sylv a Pen n
0.4
248
268
51.11%
8 22
0.2
ida Wis con sin
Flo r
0.5
0.9
0.7
ta
eso
8
232
278
nn
21
0.2
30 7
Mi
shire
o m
Rep
p Ham
De
W in
2
1.3
New
8
cr at ic
Virginia
2
ict
30
48.89%
District of Columbia
Texas Ohio
2.7
334
20 1 232
SWING TO REPUBLICANS
25.8 22.2
STATES DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTE
SWING TO DEMOCRATS
538 535
DEMOCRATIC STATES
30 306 74
ubli ca l W in
Result of US Presidential Election, November 8, 2016, The percentage swings have been taken from the table overleaf.
KEY
Swing required
4.8 to take state 406
Cumulative electral college vote
Official 2016 Presidential Vote STATE
CLINTON (DEM) VOTES
%
TRUMP (REP) VOTES
%
TWO-PARTY VOTES
% SWING TO REPUBLICAN
% SWING TO LOSE
Alabama
729,547
35.63
1,318,255
64.37
2,047,802
3.15
14.4 R
Alaska
116,454
41.61
163,387
58.39
279,841
1.07
8.4 R
Arizona
1,161,167
48.11
1,252,401
51.89
2,413,568
-2.72
1.9 R
Arkansas
380,494
35.71
684,872
64.29
1,065,366
2.14
14.3 R
California
8,753,788
66.13
4,483,810
33.87
13,237,598
-4.26
16.2 D
Colorado
1,338,870
52.68
1,202,484
47.32
2,541,354
0.07
2.7 D
Connecticut
897,572
57.14
673,215
42.86
1,570,787
1.63
7.2 D
Delaware
235,603
56.00
185,127
44.00
420,730
3.45
6.0 D
District of Columbia
282,830
95.70
12,723
4.3
295,553
-3.11
45.7 D
Florida
4,504,975
49.38
4,617,886
50.62
9,122,861
1.06
0.7 R
Georgia
1,877,863
47.34
2,089,104
52.66
3,967,067
-1.00
2.7 R
Hawaii
266,891
67.44
128,847
32.56
395,738
4.27
17.5 D
Idaho
189,765
31.69
409,055
68.31
598,820
1.89
18.4 R
Illinois
3,090,729
59.02
2,146,015
40.98
5,236,744
-0.44
9.1 D
Indiana
1,033,126
39.88
1,557,286
60.12
2,590,412
4.91
10.2 R
Iowa
653,669
44.94
800,983
55.06
1,454,652
8.02
5.1 R
Kansas
427,005
38.89
671,018
61.11
1,098,023
-0.12
11.2 R
Kentucky
628,854
34.33
1,202,971
65.67
1,831,825
4.13
15.7 R
Louisiana
780,154
39.83
1,178,638
60.17
1,958,792
1.42
10.2 R
Maine
357,735
51.60
335,593
48.40
693,328
6.26
16 D
Maryland
1,677,928
64.02
943,169
35.98
2,621,097
0.70
14.1 D
Massachusetts
1,995,196
64.65
1,090,893
35.35
3,086,089
-2.77
14.7 D
Michigan
2,268,839
49.88
2,279,543
50.12
4,548,382
4.92
0.2 R
Minnesota
1,367,716
50.83
1,322,951
49.17
2,690,667
3.11
0.9 D
Mississippi
485,131
40.91
700,714
59.09
1,185,845
3.29
9.1 R
Missouri
1,071,068
40.18
1,594,511
59.82
2,665,579
5.04
9.9 R
Montana
177,709
38.89
279,240
61.11
456,949
4.08
11.2 R
Nebraska
284,494
36.45
495,961
63.55
780,455
2.3
13.6 R
Nevada
539,260
51.29
512,058
48.71
1,051,318
2.11
1.3 D
New Hampshire
348,526
50.20
345,790
49.8
694,316
2.63
0.2 D
New Jersey
2,148,278
57.28
1,601,933
42.72
3,750,211
1.48
7.3 D
New Mexico
385,234
54.65
319,666
45.35
704,900
0.65
4.7 D
New York
4,556,118
61.77
2,819,533
38.23
7,375,651
2.53
11.8 D
North Carolina
2,189,316
48.10
2,362,631
51.90
4,551,947
0.87
1.9 R
North Dakota
93,758
30.19
216,794
69.81
310,552
9.69
19.9 R
Ohio
2,394,164
45.73
2,841,005
54.27
5,235,169
5.78
4.3 R
Oklahoma
420,375
30.7
949,136
69.3
1,369,511
2.53
19.3 R
Oregon
1,002,106
56.16
782,403
43.84
1,784,509
0.11
6.2 D
Pennsylvania
2,926,441
49.62
2,970,733
50.38
5,897,174
3.11
0.4 R
Rhode Island
252,525
58.31
180,543
41.69
433,068
6.01
8.4 D
South Carolina
855,373
42.54
1,155,389
57.46
2,010,762
2.15
7.5 R
South Dakota
117,458
34.03
227,721
65.97
345,179
6.75
16.0 R
Tennessee
870,695
36.38
1,522,925
63.62
2,393,620
3.27
13.7 R
Texas
3,877,868
45.29
4,685,047
54.71
8,562,915
-3.30
4.8 R
Utah
310,676
37.62
515,231
62.38
825,907
-12.25
12.4 R
Vermont
178,573
65.19
95,369
34.81
273,942
3.06
15.2 D
Virginia
1,981,473
52.83
1,769,443
47.17
3,750,916
-0.86
2.9 D
Washington
1,742,718
58.79
1,221,747
41.21
2,964,465
-1.16
8.8 D
West Virginia
188,794
27.84
489,371
72.16
678,165
8.49
22.2 R
Wisconsin
1,382,536
49.59
1,405,284
50.41
2,787,820
3.93
0.5 R
Wyoming
55,973
24.29
174,419
75.71
230,392
4.55
25.8 R
TOTAL USA
65,853,510
51.11
62,984,824
48.89
128,838,334
0.85
Note that the cobined vote for all other candidates was 7,830,410. Of individual candidates in that group the most significant were 4,488,919 for Gary Johnson (Libertarian), 1457,044 were for Jill Stein (Green) and 731,263 were for Evan McMullin, an Independent.