Federal Pendulum 2019

Page 1

General Election 18 May 2019 Counts not conventional for two-party preferred vote Clark (Tasmania)

Andrew Wilkie (Independent) Ben McGregor (Labor) Swing needed by Labor: 22.2%

Cooper (Victoria)

Ged Kearney (Labor) David Risstrom (Greens) Swing needed by Greens: 14.7%

Cowper (NSW)

Pat Conaghan (Nationals) Robert Oakeshott (Independent) Swing needed by Oakeshott: 6.8%

Farrer (NSW)

Sussan Ley (Liberal) Kevin Mack (Independent) Swing needed by Mack: 11.0%

Grayndler (NSW)

Anthony Albanese (Labor) Jim Casey (Greens) Swing needed by Greens: 16.3%

Indi (Victoria)

Helen Haines (Independent) Steve Martin (Liberal) Swing needed by Liberal: 1.4%

Kennedy (Queensland)

Bob Katter (Independent) Frank Beveridge (Liberal National Party) Swing needed by Liberal National Party: 13.4%

Kooyong (Victoria)

Josh Frydenberg (Liberal) Julian Burnside (Greens) Swing needed by Greens: 5.7%

Maranoa (Queensland)

David Littleproud (Liberal National Party) Rosemary Moulden (Pauline Hanson’s One Nation) Swing needed by Pauline Hanson’s One Nation: 22.5%

Mayo (SA)

Rebekha Sharkie (Centre Alliance) Georgina Downer (Liberal) Swing needed by Liberal: 5.2%

Melbourne (Victoria)

Adam Bandt (Greens) Lauren Sherson (Liberal) Swing needed by Liberal: 21.9%

New England (NSW)

Barnaby Joyce (Nationals) Adam Blakester (Independent) Swing needed by Blakester: 14.4%

Warringah (NSW)

Zali Steggall (Independent) Tony Abbott (Liberal) Swing needed by Liberal: 7.3%

Wentworth (NSW)

Dave Sharma (Liberal) Kerryn Phelps (Independent) Swing needed by Phelps: 1.4%

Wills (Victoria)

Peter Khalil (Labor) Adam Pulford (Greens) Swing needed by Greens: 8.2%

48,653 18,808

72.12% 27.88%

63,017 34,464

64.65% 35.35%

59,932 45,596

56.79% 43.21%

59,260 37,989

60.94% 39.06%

63,529 32,285

66.30% 33.70%

51,886 49,070

51.39% 48.61 %

58,231 33,717

63.33% 36.67%

55,159 43,870

55.70% 44.30%

67,239 25,521

72.49% 27.51%

62,124 50,552

55.14% 44.86%

66,852 26,212

71.83% 28.17%

62,637 34,683

64.36% 35.64%

52,728 39,395

57.24% 42.76%

46,050 43,704

51.31% 48.69%

55,898 40,192

58.17% 41.83%


Mackerras Pendulum Federal - 2019 Result

GOVERNMENT SEATS

OPPOSITION SEATS

Liberal Nationals Other Total Majority 4 81 11 61 16

145 143 141 139 137 135 133 131 129 127 125 123 121

19.9 19.5 19.1 19.0 18.7 17.7 17.0 16.7 16.6 16.3 15.7 15.4 15.2

Farrer (Lib, NSW) Riverina (Nat, NSW) Cook (Lib, NSW) Barker (Lib, SA) Mitchell (Lib, NSW) New England (Nat, NSW) Parkes (Nat, NSW) Gippsland (Nat, Vic) Bradfield (Lib, NSW) Mallee (Nat, Vic) Berowra (Lib, NSW) Moncrieff (Lib, Qld) Lyne (Nat, NSW)

119 117 115 113 111 109 107 105 103 101 99 97 95 93 91 89 87 85 83 81 79 77 75 73 71 69

14.8 14.7 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.5 14.5 14.4 14.2 13.5 13.4 13.3 13.3 13.2 13.0 12.8 12.7 12.4 12.2 11.9 11.7 11.6 11.5 10.4 10.3 10.2

Durack (Lib, WA) Dawson (Nat, Qld) Wright (Lib, Qld) Forrest (Lib, WA) Kennedy (Katter, Qld) Hinkler (Nat, Qld) O’Connor (Lib, WA) Curtin (Lib, WA) Fadden (Lib, Qld) Fairfax (Lib, Qld) Grey (Lib, SA) Calare (Nat, NSW) Mackellar (Lib, NSW) Wide Bay (Nat, Qld) Hume (Lib, NSW) Indi (Haines, Vic) Fisher (Lib, Qld) Capricornia (Nat, Qld) McPherson (Lib, Qld) Cowper (Nat, NSW) Moore (Lib, WA) Canning (Lib, WA) Tangney (Lib, WA) Wannon (Lib, Vic) Bowman (Lib, Qld) Aston (Lib, Vic)

67 65 63 61

9.9 9.9 9.5 9.3

Wentworth (Lib, NSW) Hughes (Lib, NSW) Page (Nat, NSW) North Sydney (Lib, NSW)

59 57 55 53

8.7 8.6 8.4 8.4

Flynn (Nat, Qld) Forde (Lib, Qld) Petrie (Lib, Qld) Herbert (Lib, Qld)

51 49 47 45 43

7.8 7.6 7.6 7.5 7.4

Goldstein (Lib, Vic) Menzies (Lib, Vic) Pearce (Lib, WA) Bonner (Lib, Qld) Monash (Lib, Vic)

41 39 37 35 33

7.0 6.9 6.7 6.3 6.1

Bennelong (Lib, NSW) Sturt (Lib, SA) Kooyong (Lib, Vic) Banks (Lib, NSW) Ryan (Lib, Qld)

31

5.7

Stirling (Lib, WA)

9

9

8

8

7

7

6

6

5

5

32

1

3

/Na t/O th

er m

ajori

(Lib, Vic ) Bass (Lib, Tas)

11

Lib

9

7

5

ity

3 2 1 1

Chisholm 0.6

2.7

5 3

m ns

Re Br id ( ad Li do b, 2.6 Sw n NS (L W an ib ) 2.2 Ma (Li ,T b, yo (Sh WA as) Wa rrin a ) gah rkie, (St SA) egg 1.4 all, NS B oo W) thby (Lib , SA )

2

10

4

151 149 147 145

Calwell (Vic) Sydney (NSW) Melbourne (Greens, Vic) Canberra (ACT) Clark (Wilkie, Tas) Gorton (Vic)

18.8 18.7 17.1 17.1 16.2 15.4

143 141 139 137 135 133

Gellibrand (Vic) Blaxland (NSW) Fraser (Vic) Bruce (Vic) Spence (SA) Fowler (NSW) Newcastle (NSW) Watson (NSW) Cunningham (NSW) Lalor (Vic) Chifley (NSW) Franklin (Tas) Kingston (SA) Maribyrnong (Vic) Ballarat (Vic) Whitlam (NSW) Fenner (ACT) Corio (Vic)

14.9 14.8 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.0 13.9 13.6 13.5 12.5 12.4 12.3 12.0 11.2 11.0 11.0 10.6 10.4

131 129 127 125 123 121 119 117 115 113 111 109 107 105 103 101 99 97

Makin (SA) Barton (NSW) Bendigo (Vic)

9.8 9.5 9.1

95 93 91

Kingsford Smith (NSW) Holt (Vic) Macarthur (NSW) Adelaide (SA)

8.9 8.7 8.4 8.2

89 87 85 83

Bean (ACT)

7.6

81

Fremantle (WA) Brand (WA) McMahon (NSW) Jagajaga (Vic) Hindmarsh (SA) Rankin (Qld) Isaacs (Vic) Oxley (Qld) Macnamara (Vic)

7.0 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.4 6.3

79 77 75 73 71 69 67 65 63

15

10

3.1

3.

20

26.4 25.9 23.9 21.7

4

Hotham (Vic) 6.0 61 Werriwa (NSW) 5.5 59 Lingiari (NT ) 5.5 57 Lyons (Tas) 5.2 Paterson 55 (NSW ) McEwe 5.1 n (Vic) 53 5.1 Burt 5 1 ( WA ) Per Sh 5 t .0 h ort ( WA lan ) 49 Ric d( 5.0 hm NS W) on Pa d( 47 rra NS 4.5 W m ) at ta (N 4.1 45 SW ) 43 3.5 41

Labor 48.5%

39

e re /G I nd or/

7

aj or

20

Total 70

Cooper (Vic) Wills (Vic) Grayndler (NSW) Scullin (Vic)

37 3.1 35 33 T) 3.0 (N 31 2.9 on ) m .8 W 9 2 S 2 lo (N ld) So 2.8 er (Q ) 27 nt th W S 7 . 2 HuGriffiay (N ( Vic) w ) y 25 1.9 en kle SW Gre Dun e (N ) r 23 .5 1 Qld mo Gil eton ( W ) 21 1.3 S r Mo bell (N ld) 1.1 Do lair (Q ) B ic 19 ite ( V ngam 0.9 ) Cora W S 7 1 onaro (N 0.7 Eden-M Cowan (WA) 15 0.7 Lilley (Qld) Macquarie (NSW) 0.2 13

La b

Lib-Nat 51.5%

5.7

9

%

15

Flinders (Lib, Vic) ib, WA) Hasluck (L 5.4 W) 27 (Lib, NS Lindsay .1 5 , Qld) ne (Lib 25 Brisba (Lib, Vic) in 5.0 c) Deak (Lib, Vi , Qld) 23 ) y b i e ic) 4.8 Cas on (L ib, V , NSWd) s L l ( b 1 k i 2 4.7 Dic robe n (L ib, Q a T rtso dt (L Vic) ld) 7 L . 9 4 1 , Q be ar Ro chh (Lib Lib, 4.5 i s ( e n i L 17 an gg 4.3 Hi ngm 2 . 15 o 4 L 3.9 13 3.3 11

29

%

SWING TO LIBERAL / NATIONAL PARTIES

Maranoa (Nat, Qld) Groom (Lib, Qld) Nicholls (Nat, Vic)

SWING TO LABOR PARTY

25.5 20.5 20.1

0.5

151 149 147

Labor Greens Independent 68 1 1

ty

Result of 46th general election for the Australian House of Representatives, 18 May 2019. For more information see other side.

KEY 5.4

Swing required to take seat

27

Majority in seats


Issuu converts static files into: digital portfolios, online yearbooks, online catalogs, digital photo albums and more. Sign up and create your flipbook.