ACU Pendulum WA 2021

Page 1

Western Australian Electoral Pendulum Majority 21

Labor 40

Armadale Warnbro Rockingham Mirrabooka Fremantle Basssendean Kwinana Butler West Swan Mandurah Maylands Willagee Cannington Victoria Park Baldivis Thornlie Collie-Preston Cockburn Kimberley Midland Perth Morley Swan Hills Belmont Bunbury

9 7

9.6 9.5

Landsdale Forrestfield

5 3

8.6 8.1

Wanneroo Balcatta

5 4

u lam

3

2 1

53 51 49 47 45 43

Nedlands (Lib)

8.3

41

Bateman (Lib) South Perth (Lib)

7.8 7.2

39 37

Kalgoorlie (Lib)

6.2

35

Scarborough (Lib)

5.6

33

1 2

3

Riverto

n (Lib)

Dar

ling

Ran

4.4

31

ge (

Lib)

3.5

29

44.4% 27

17

1.2

1.4

14.7 13.3 12.8 11.7 10.2 10.1

4

0.7

15

Vasse (Lib) Cottesloe (Lib) Warren-Blackwood (Nat) Churchlands (Lib) Carine (Lib) North West Central (Nat)

1.4

Joondalup

ko da

13

55

t) (Na

2.3

19.5

ton

b Pil

Moore (Nat)

d ral

a ar

rray

Ka

59 57

5

t -W ellin Kings gto ley n

a nd

25

19

3.6

25.9 22.6

Ge

Majority in seats

7 6

23

5

7

0.4

Swing required to take seat

8

(Lib) sville Dawe ) Hillarys (Lib

8.6

8 6

on Bict

11

KEY

9

Lawley t n u o M

2.5

55.6%

9

Albany Burns Beach

4.1

9

10

0.1

5.9 5.4

7

10

Mu

3 5

15

Southern River

Roe ( Nat) Central Wheatbelt (Nat)

20

15

21

7.9

Lib - Nat Seats

%

20

Jan

Labor majority

1

%

Total 19

National 6

SWING TO LABOR PARTY

25.2 23.8 23.4 23.3 21.3 21.5 20.7 20.5 18.4 18.0 17.8 17.7 17.6 16.5 16.4 15.8 14.8 14.3 13.0 12.8 12.6 12.3 12.1 11.4 10.9

SWING TO LIBERAL / NATIONAL PARTIES

59 57 55 53 51 49 47 45 43 41 39 37 35 33 31 29 27 25 23 21 19 17 15 13 11

1.8

Lib-Nat majority

Labor Seats

Liberal 13

Result of general election,11 March 2017, as adjusted for boundary changes implemented in November 2019 by the redistribution. The electoral district of Landsdale is shown in red to indicate its name change from Girrawheen. No seat has changed party notionally. The percentage swings required to lose have been taken from the table overleaf except in cases of major boundary changes. Geraldton was won in 2017 by Ian Blayney for the Liberal Party but in mid-2019 he switched to the National Party. Darling Range is shown according to the by-election results on 23 June 2018.


Western Australian Two-Party Preferred Votes by Electoral District, 11 March 2017, Legislative Assembly District

Labor Votes

%

Lib - Nat

%

Swing to Labor

Swing Needed

Winner

Albany

12,988

55.10

10,585 (Nat)

44.90

4.0

5.1

Peter Watson (Labor)

Armadale

17,008

75.17

5,619 (Lib)

24.83

15.5

25.2

Tony Buti (Labor)

Balcatta

12,950

55.83

10,247 (Lib)

44.17

13.0

5.9

David Michael (Labor)

Baldivis

16,970

67.88

8,029 (Lib)

32.12

11.5

17.9

Reece Whitby (Labor)

Bassendean

15,967

71.50

6,365 (Lib)

28.50

16.3

21.5

Dave Kelly (Labor)

Bateman

9,148

40.54

13,418 (Lib)

59.46

13.6

9.5

Dean Nalder (Lib)

Bicton

11,968

52.93

10,641 (Lib)

47.07

13.0

3.0

Lisa O’Malley (Labor)

Belmont

13,162

61.40

8,273 (Lib)

38.60

12.3

11.4

Cassie Rowe (Labor)

Burns Beach

12,400

52.53

11,207 (Lib)

47.47

14.4

2.6

Mark Folkard (Labor)

(a)

Butler

16,641

69.45

7,321 (Lib)

30.55

18.6

19.5

John Quigley (Labor)

Bunbury

14,003

60.85

9,010 (Lib)

39.15

23.1

10.9

Don Punch (Labor)

Cannington

14,190

68.05

6,662 (Lib)

31.95

16.0

18.1

Bill Johnston (Labor)

Carine

9,871

40.95

14,233 (Lib)

59.05

9.1

9.1

Tony Krsticevic (Lib)

Central Wheatbelt

6,111

27.43

16,166 (Nat)

72.57

-1.4

22.6

Mia Davies (Nat)

Churchlands

8,599

36.78

14,778 (Lib)

63.22

6.9

13.3

Sean L’Estrange (Lib)

Cockburn

15,311

65.93

7,911 (Lib)

34.07

11.5

16.0

Francis Logan (Labor)

Collie-Preston

16,003

64.71

8,728 (Lib)

35.29

17.7

14.8

Mick Murray (Labor)

Cottesloe

8,590

36.73

14,799 (Lib)

63.27

7.7

13.3

Colin Barnett (Lib)

Darling Range

14,788

55.80

11,712 (Lib)

44.20

19.0

5.8

Barry Urban (Labor)

Dawesville

12,204

49.31

12,547 (Lib)

50.69

12.0

0.7

Zak Kirkup (Lib)

Forrestfield

13,281

59.43

9,067 (Lib)

40.57

11.5

9.5

Stephen Price (Labor)

Fremantle

17,127

73.05

6,318 (Lib)

26.95

7.7

23.1

Simone McGurk (Labor)

Geraldton

10,201

48.67

10,759 (Lib)

51.33

21.5

1.4

Ian Blayney (Lib)

Girrawheen

15,883

66.71

7,927 (Lib)

33.29

14.0

16.8

Margaret Quirk (Labor)

Hillarys

10,820

45.91

12,749 (Lib)

54.09

12.1

4.1

Peter Katsambanis (Lib)

Jandakot

12,835

51.02

12,323 (Lib)

48.98

19.0

1.1

Yaz Mubarakai (Labor)

Joondalup

11,737

50.60

11,460 (Lib)

49.40

11.0

0.6

Emily Hamilton (Labor)

Kalamunda

12,268

52.50

11,100 (Lib)

47.50

12.8

2.5

Matthew Hughes (Labor)

Kalgoorlie

6,656

43.82

8,533 (Lib)

56.18

10.7

6.2

Kyran O’Donnell (Lib)

Kimberley

7,381

63.01

4,333 (Lib)

36.99

7.9

13.1

Josie Farrer (Labor)

Kingsley

11,541

50.67

11,234 (Lib)

49.33

14.7

0.7

Jessica Stojkovski (Labor)

Kwinana

14,251

68.08

6,683 (Lib)

31.92

13.8

18.1

Roger Cook (Labor)

Mandurah

15,836

68.00

7,451 (Lib)

32.00

10.2

18.0

David Templeman (Labor)

Maylands

15,509

67.86

7,345 (Lib)

32.14

15.2

17.9

Lisa Barker (Labor)

Midland

15,315

63.05

8,976 (Lib)

36.95

12.6

13.1

Michelle Roberts (Labor)

Mirrabooka

14,879

69.18

6,629 (Lib)

30.82

14.6

19.2

Janine Freeman (Labor)

Moore

6,795

32.06

14,400 (Nat)

67.94

5.2

18.0

Shane Love (Nat)

Morley

13,064

61.43

8,203 (Lib)

38.57

16.2

11.5

Amber-Jane Sanderson (Labor)

(b)

Mount Lawley

12,767

54.04

10,858 (Lib)

45.96

12.9

4.1

Simon Millman (Labor)

Murray-Wellington

12,082

51.39

11,430 (Lib)

48.61

13.4

1.4

Robyn Clarke (Labor)

Nedlands

9,728

41.72

13,588 (Lib)

58.28

10.9

8.3

Bill Marmion (Lib)

North West Central

2,947

40.46

4,337 (Nat)

59.54

2.0

9.6

Vincent Catania (Nat)

Perth

14,815

61.82

9,148 (Lib)

38.18

14.5

11.9

John Carey (Labor)

Pilbara

7,393

52.28

6,748 (Nat)

47.72

13.8

2.3

Kevin Michel (Labor)

Riverton

10,153

45.64

12,092 (Lib)

54.36

8.4

4.4

Mike Nahan (Lib)

Rockingham

16,174

73.37

5,869 (Lib)

26.63

10.2

23.4

Mark McGowan (Labor)

5,696

25.34

16,780 (Nat)

74.66

2.9

24.7

Peter Rundle (Nat)

Scarborough

10,100

44.44

12,629 (Lib)

55.56

11.7

5.6

Liza Harvey (Lib)

Roe

(b)

South Perth

10,187

42.85

13,585 (Lib)

57.15

12.9

7.2

John McGrath (Lib)

Southern River

13,170

57.86

9,591 (Lib)

42.14

18.9

7.9

Terry Healy (Labor)

Swan Hills

17,703

64.52

9,734 (Lib)

35.48

18.2

14.6

Jessica Shaw (Labor)

Thornlie

14,965

65.79

7,781 (Lib)

34.21

14.0

15.8

Chris Tallentire (Labor)

Vasse

8,421

35.31

15,429 (Lib)

64.69

6.6

14.7

Libby Mettam (Lib)

Victoria Park

15,064

66.48

7,595 (Lib)

33.52

12.4

16.5

Ben Wyatt (Labor)

Wanneroo

13,361

57.25

9,975 (Lib)

42.75

18.5

7.3

Sabine Winton (Labor)

Warnbro

16,800

73.72

5,988 (Lib)

26.28

13.2

23.8

Paul Papalia (Labor)

Warren-Blackwood

8,622

36.59

14,942 (Nat)

6341

2.1

13.5

Terry Redman (Nat)

West Swan

15,812

67.13

7,744(Lib)

32.87

17.9

17.2

Rita Saffioti (Labor)

Willagee

13,948

65.49

7,351 (Lib)

34.51

13.4

15.5

Peter Tinley (Labor)

TOTAL

734,159

55.57

586,935

44.43

12.9

Notes: (a) The two-candidate vote was actually between Labor and the Independent candidate Whitefield who now needs a swing of 7.3% to take the seat from Labor. The two-party statistics shown here are merely my estimate. (b) These were seats won by The Nationals. The Liberal Party now needs swings of 14% in Moore and 14.5% in Roe. The two-party statistics shown here are merely my estimates. (c) In the redistribution the effects on marginal seats are these: the following Labor seats have been strengthened: Albany from 5.1 to 5.9, Bicton from 3.0 to 3.6, Burns Beach from 2.6 to 5.4, Jandakot from 1.1 to 1.8 and Kingsley from 0.7 to 1.2. The following Labor seat has been weakened: Joondalup from 0.6 to 0.1. The Liberal seat of Hillarys has been weakened from 4.1 to 0.4. For Pendulum see other side


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