Western Australian Electoral Pendulum Majority 21
Labor 40
Armadale Warnbro Rockingham Mirrabooka Fremantle Basssendean Kwinana Butler West Swan Mandurah Maylands Willagee Cannington Victoria Park Baldivis Thornlie Collie-Preston Cockburn Kimberley Midland Perth Morley Swan Hills Belmont Bunbury
9 7
9.6 9.5
Landsdale Forrestfield
5 3
8.6 8.1
Wanneroo Balcatta
5 4
u lam
3
2 1
53 51 49 47 45 43
Nedlands (Lib)
8.3
41
Bateman (Lib) South Perth (Lib)
7.8 7.2
39 37
Kalgoorlie (Lib)
6.2
35
Scarborough (Lib)
5.6
33
1 2
3
Riverto
n (Lib)
Dar
ling
Ran
4.4
31
ge (
Lib)
3.5
29
44.4% 27
17
1.2
1.4
14.7 13.3 12.8 11.7 10.2 10.1
4
0.7
15
Vasse (Lib) Cottesloe (Lib) Warren-Blackwood (Nat) Churchlands (Lib) Carine (Lib) North West Central (Nat)
1.4
Joondalup
ko da
13
55
t) (Na
2.3
19.5
ton
b Pil
Moore (Nat)
d ral
a ar
rray
Ka
59 57
5
t -W ellin Kings gto ley n
a nd
25
19
3.6
25.9 22.6
Ge
Majority in seats
7 6
23
5
7
0.4
Swing required to take seat
8
(Lib) sville Dawe ) Hillarys (Lib
8.6
8 6
on Bict
11
KEY
9
Lawley t n u o M
2.5
55.6%
9
Albany Burns Beach
4.1
9
10
0.1
5.9 5.4
7
10
Mu
3 5
15
Southern River
Roe ( Nat) Central Wheatbelt (Nat)
20
15
21
7.9
Lib - Nat Seats
%
20
Jan
Labor majority
1
%
Total 19
National 6
SWING TO LABOR PARTY
25.2 23.8 23.4 23.3 21.3 21.5 20.7 20.5 18.4 18.0 17.8 17.7 17.6 16.5 16.4 15.8 14.8 14.3 13.0 12.8 12.6 12.3 12.1 11.4 10.9
SWING TO LIBERAL / NATIONAL PARTIES
59 57 55 53 51 49 47 45 43 41 39 37 35 33 31 29 27 25 23 21 19 17 15 13 11
1.8
Lib-Nat majority
Labor Seats
Liberal 13
Result of general election,11 March 2017, as adjusted for boundary changes implemented in November 2019 by the redistribution. The electoral district of Landsdale is shown in red to indicate its name change from Girrawheen. No seat has changed party notionally. The percentage swings required to lose have been taken from the table overleaf except in cases of major boundary changes. Geraldton was won in 2017 by Ian Blayney for the Liberal Party but in mid-2019 he switched to the National Party. Darling Range is shown according to the by-election results on 23 June 2018.
Western Australian Two-Party Preferred Votes by Electoral District, 11 March 2017, Legislative Assembly District
Labor Votes
%
Lib - Nat
%
Swing to Labor
Swing Needed
Winner
Albany
12,988
55.10
10,585 (Nat)
44.90
4.0
5.1
Peter Watson (Labor)
Armadale
17,008
75.17
5,619 (Lib)
24.83
15.5
25.2
Tony Buti (Labor)
Balcatta
12,950
55.83
10,247 (Lib)
44.17
13.0
5.9
David Michael (Labor)
Baldivis
16,970
67.88
8,029 (Lib)
32.12
11.5
17.9
Reece Whitby (Labor)
Bassendean
15,967
71.50
6,365 (Lib)
28.50
16.3
21.5
Dave Kelly (Labor)
Bateman
9,148
40.54
13,418 (Lib)
59.46
13.6
9.5
Dean Nalder (Lib)
Bicton
11,968
52.93
10,641 (Lib)
47.07
13.0
3.0
Lisa O’Malley (Labor)
Belmont
13,162
61.40
8,273 (Lib)
38.60
12.3
11.4
Cassie Rowe (Labor)
Burns Beach
12,400
52.53
11,207 (Lib)
47.47
14.4
2.6
Mark Folkard (Labor)
(a)
Butler
16,641
69.45
7,321 (Lib)
30.55
18.6
19.5
John Quigley (Labor)
Bunbury
14,003
60.85
9,010 (Lib)
39.15
23.1
10.9
Don Punch (Labor)
Cannington
14,190
68.05
6,662 (Lib)
31.95
16.0
18.1
Bill Johnston (Labor)
Carine
9,871
40.95
14,233 (Lib)
59.05
9.1
9.1
Tony Krsticevic (Lib)
Central Wheatbelt
6,111
27.43
16,166 (Nat)
72.57
-1.4
22.6
Mia Davies (Nat)
Churchlands
8,599
36.78
14,778 (Lib)
63.22
6.9
13.3
Sean L’Estrange (Lib)
Cockburn
15,311
65.93
7,911 (Lib)
34.07
11.5
16.0
Francis Logan (Labor)
Collie-Preston
16,003
64.71
8,728 (Lib)
35.29
17.7
14.8
Mick Murray (Labor)
Cottesloe
8,590
36.73
14,799 (Lib)
63.27
7.7
13.3
Colin Barnett (Lib)
Darling Range
14,788
55.80
11,712 (Lib)
44.20
19.0
5.8
Barry Urban (Labor)
Dawesville
12,204
49.31
12,547 (Lib)
50.69
12.0
0.7
Zak Kirkup (Lib)
Forrestfield
13,281
59.43
9,067 (Lib)
40.57
11.5
9.5
Stephen Price (Labor)
Fremantle
17,127
73.05
6,318 (Lib)
26.95
7.7
23.1
Simone McGurk (Labor)
Geraldton
10,201
48.67
10,759 (Lib)
51.33
21.5
1.4
Ian Blayney (Lib)
Girrawheen
15,883
66.71
7,927 (Lib)
33.29
14.0
16.8
Margaret Quirk (Labor)
Hillarys
10,820
45.91
12,749 (Lib)
54.09
12.1
4.1
Peter Katsambanis (Lib)
Jandakot
12,835
51.02
12,323 (Lib)
48.98
19.0
1.1
Yaz Mubarakai (Labor)
Joondalup
11,737
50.60
11,460 (Lib)
49.40
11.0
0.6
Emily Hamilton (Labor)
Kalamunda
12,268
52.50
11,100 (Lib)
47.50
12.8
2.5
Matthew Hughes (Labor)
Kalgoorlie
6,656
43.82
8,533 (Lib)
56.18
10.7
6.2
Kyran O’Donnell (Lib)
Kimberley
7,381
63.01
4,333 (Lib)
36.99
7.9
13.1
Josie Farrer (Labor)
Kingsley
11,541
50.67
11,234 (Lib)
49.33
14.7
0.7
Jessica Stojkovski (Labor)
Kwinana
14,251
68.08
6,683 (Lib)
31.92
13.8
18.1
Roger Cook (Labor)
Mandurah
15,836
68.00
7,451 (Lib)
32.00
10.2
18.0
David Templeman (Labor)
Maylands
15,509
67.86
7,345 (Lib)
32.14
15.2
17.9
Lisa Barker (Labor)
Midland
15,315
63.05
8,976 (Lib)
36.95
12.6
13.1
Michelle Roberts (Labor)
Mirrabooka
14,879
69.18
6,629 (Lib)
30.82
14.6
19.2
Janine Freeman (Labor)
Moore
6,795
32.06
14,400 (Nat)
67.94
5.2
18.0
Shane Love (Nat)
Morley
13,064
61.43
8,203 (Lib)
38.57
16.2
11.5
Amber-Jane Sanderson (Labor)
(b)
Mount Lawley
12,767
54.04
10,858 (Lib)
45.96
12.9
4.1
Simon Millman (Labor)
Murray-Wellington
12,082
51.39
11,430 (Lib)
48.61
13.4
1.4
Robyn Clarke (Labor)
Nedlands
9,728
41.72
13,588 (Lib)
58.28
10.9
8.3
Bill Marmion (Lib)
North West Central
2,947
40.46
4,337 (Nat)
59.54
2.0
9.6
Vincent Catania (Nat)
Perth
14,815
61.82
9,148 (Lib)
38.18
14.5
11.9
John Carey (Labor)
Pilbara
7,393
52.28
6,748 (Nat)
47.72
13.8
2.3
Kevin Michel (Labor)
Riverton
10,153
45.64
12,092 (Lib)
54.36
8.4
4.4
Mike Nahan (Lib)
Rockingham
16,174
73.37
5,869 (Lib)
26.63
10.2
23.4
Mark McGowan (Labor)
5,696
25.34
16,780 (Nat)
74.66
2.9
24.7
Peter Rundle (Nat)
Scarborough
10,100
44.44
12,629 (Lib)
55.56
11.7
5.6
Liza Harvey (Lib)
Roe
(b)
South Perth
10,187
42.85
13,585 (Lib)
57.15
12.9
7.2
John McGrath (Lib)
Southern River
13,170
57.86
9,591 (Lib)
42.14
18.9
7.9
Terry Healy (Labor)
Swan Hills
17,703
64.52
9,734 (Lib)
35.48
18.2
14.6
Jessica Shaw (Labor)
Thornlie
14,965
65.79
7,781 (Lib)
34.21
14.0
15.8
Chris Tallentire (Labor)
Vasse
8,421
35.31
15,429 (Lib)
64.69
6.6
14.7
Libby Mettam (Lib)
Victoria Park
15,064
66.48
7,595 (Lib)
33.52
12.4
16.5
Ben Wyatt (Labor)
Wanneroo
13,361
57.25
9,975 (Lib)
42.75
18.5
7.3
Sabine Winton (Labor)
Warnbro
16,800
73.72
5,988 (Lib)
26.28
13.2
23.8
Paul Papalia (Labor)
Warren-Blackwood
8,622
36.59
14,942 (Nat)
6341
2.1
13.5
Terry Redman (Nat)
West Swan
15,812
67.13
7,744(Lib)
32.87
17.9
17.2
Rita Saffioti (Labor)
Willagee
13,948
65.49
7,351 (Lib)
34.51
13.4
15.5
Peter Tinley (Labor)
TOTAL
734,159
55.57
586,935
44.43
12.9
Notes: (a) The two-candidate vote was actually between Labor and the Independent candidate Whitefield who now needs a swing of 7.3% to take the seat from Labor. The two-party statistics shown here are merely my estimate. (b) These were seats won by The Nationals. The Liberal Party now needs swings of 14% in Moore and 14.5% in Roe. The two-party statistics shown here are merely my estimates. (c) In the redistribution the effects on marginal seats are these: the following Labor seats have been strengthened: Albany from 5.1 to 5.9, Bicton from 3.0 to 3.6, Burns Beach from 2.6 to 5.4, Jandakot from 1.1 to 1.8 and Kingsley from 0.7 to 1.2. The following Labor seat has been weakened: Joondalup from 0.6 to 0.1. The Liberal seat of Hillarys has been weakened from 4.1 to 0.4. For Pendulum see other side