The Noble Agency | INSIDER : An Arizona Luxury Real Estate Report 2021

INSIDER

2021

LUXURY REPORT 1

THE NOBLE AGENCY

The meaning of luxury is in the eye of the beholder. To some it’s time, to others it’s freedom.

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from the CEO As 2020 came to a close, many of us are looking forward to 2021 with renewed hope. Last year was filled with many challenges as we navigated the waters of the pandemic, social unrest, and the presidential election. Through it all we found more compassion, strength and unity.

We also believe in silver linings and despite the year, we took a leap of faith. The Noble Agency, Arizona’s premiere boutique luxury real estate brokerage, opened in May of 2020. It has been a life-changing journey filled with incredibly talented people - staff, global real estate advisors and partners. Our loft-style office, located near Scottsdale Quarter, is off Greenway-Hayden Loop overlooking the McDowell’s, Pinnacle Peak, Camelback and Mummy Mountain. How lucky are we?

Our global real estate advisors have served over 100 buyers and sellers with more than $110 million in sales in 2020 and it doesn’t stop there.

Thank you to our group, partners, family, and friends for your support.

And thank you to our loyal clients. We love what we do and we’re grateful and honored to serve you.

Wishing you and yours a healthy and prosperous new year.

Monica Monson CEO + Designated Broker/Owner The Noble Agency

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MARKET recap When it comes to breaking record years, 2020 was the leader in luxury real estate in Arizona. The State of Arizona ranked 3rd in the nation for population growth behind Texas and Florida according to the latest 2020 Census release.

The full report will come out later this year and we expect for California to show as the top source of inbound migration for Greater Phoenix. Moving companies such as Atlas, United Van Lines and North American have released their annual migration reports and two of the three list Arizona in their Top Five states for inbound moves.

Supply is down 51%. Median home prices have risen 15.5% year-over-year with median rental rates rising 12.9%. Rising home prices and low mortgage rates have created a demand that is keeping our market in a strong sellers position. As our population continues to grow, the housing gap is becoming harder to close.

Over the last decade, we have experienced underbuilding and a limited number of new properties. It will take months to years for the market to start to move but as prices rise and affordability increases, we will eventually see demand begin to drop. In 2021, home prices are still projected to rise but possibly at a slower rate in the latter half of the year.

Market Data Source: Cromford Report / Tina Tamboer

2020

Greater Phoenix

While the number of listings barely changed last year, Buyers still experienced limited inventory with the lowest amount of supply v. demand in history.

Luxury sales were up 7.7% year-over-year and by the end of December annual luxury sales were up 48.7%. This is extraordinary and unprecedented with over 2,575 sales over $1m. The highest ultra luxury sale recorded in 2020 was a single-family residence at $24 million. Three others ranging from just over $17 million to just over $20 million.

The busiest sector of the luxury market was homes between $5 and $10 million with 56 closings.

luxury sales #3 Market

Arizona ranked for population growth nationally.

48.7%

By end of December, luxury sales hit an all-time high.

7.7%

Luxury sales increase Year-Over-Year

$24 M

Arizona’s record breaking residential sale.

Market data from Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service for homes over $1 million.

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LUXURY SNAPSHOT

by city

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Scottsdale

# CLOSINGS

AVERAGE PRICE / SF

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

$1,000,000 - $1,999,999

1,258

$337.13

107

$2,000,000 - $2,999,999

239

$457.58

155

$3,000,000 - $3,999,999

93

$569.65

186

$4,000,000 - $4,999,999

17

$625.60

288

$5,000,000 - $5,999,999

12

$683.69

174

$6,000,000 - $6,999,999

4

$762.25

253

$7,000,000 - $7,999,999

3

$966.41

53

$8,000,000 - $8,999,999

2

$778.07

399

$9,000,000 - $9,999,999

-

-

-

$10,000,000 - $14,999,999

1

$1,345.82

131

$15,000,000+

1

$1,551.44

498

Paradise Valley

# CLOSINGS

AVERAGE PRICE / SF

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

$1,000,000 - $1,999,999

248

$391.53

107

$2,000,000 - $2,999,999

139

$467.74

161

$3,000,000 - $3,999,999

50

$545.35

158

$4,000,000 - $4,999,999

39

$599.34

177

$5,000,000 - $5,999,999

11

$634.29

303

$6,000,000 - $6,999,999

6

$921.98

157

$7,000,000 - $7,999,999

1

$711.68

22

$8,000,000 - $8,999,999

3

$795.36

45

$9,000,000 - $9,999,999

1

$659.91

243

$10,000,000 - $14,999,999

1

$797.91

0

$15,000,000+

3

$1,046.64

70

Market Data Source: Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service

7

Phoenix

# CLOSINGS

AVERAGE PRICE / SF

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

$1,000,000 - $1,999,999

224

$250.49

95

$2,000,000 - $2,999,999

71

$465.66

115

$3,000,000 - $3,999,999

23

$562.21

158

$4,000,000 - $4,999,999

5

$541.68

193

$5,000,000 - $5,999,999

1

$615.75

203

$6,000,000 - $6,999,999

-

-

-

$7,000,000 - $7,999,999

1

$2,839.80

714

$8,000,000+

--

-

-

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Fountain Hills

# CLOSINGS

AVERAGE PRICE / SF

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

$1,000,000 - $1,999,999

99

$308.29

180

$2,000,000 - $2,999,999

12

$336.64

231

$3,000,000 - $3,999,999

3

$461.89

88

$4,000,000 - $4,999,999

-

-

-

$5,000,000 - $5,999,999

2

$540.48

359

$6,000,000+

-

-

-

Cave Creek/Carefree

# CLOSINGS

AVERAGE PRICE / SF

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

$1,000,000 - $1,999,999

82

$309.10

156

$2,000,000 - $2,999,999

9

$478.75

258

$3,000,000 - $3,999,999

7

$386.23

265

$4,000,000 - $4,999,999

1

$368.18

150

$5,000,000+

-

-

-

# CLOSINGS

AVERAGE PRICE / SF

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

East Valley $1,000,000 - $1,999,999

223

$250.49

95

$2,000,000 - $2,999,999

13

$363.79

99

-

-

-

$3,000,000+

Market Data Source: Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service

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Chicago Title is a member of the FNF family of companies and the nation’s largest group of title companies and title insurance underwriters. Collectively, we issue more title insurance policies than any other title company in the United States. Our standings with third-party rating agencies are a testament to our longevity, financial strength, and claims paying ability. For 13 of the last 14 years, we have held a position on the FORTUNE 500® list.

2020 Q3 Report

9.2

35.1

$

$

528

847

571

billion

billion

billion

million

thousand

thousand

FNF Market Cap

Investment Portfolio

Total Revenue

Adjusted Pre-Tax Earnings

Direct Orders Opened

Direct Orders Closed

375

32.7%

A

A2

Standards & Poor’s

Moody’s

$

1.6

$

$

1.48

$

2.5

billion

Adjusted EPS

FORTUNE 500® 2020

Market Share

Claim Reserves

Adjusted EPS to Common Shareholders Diluted

Highest Ranked Company in the Title Insurance Industry

Overall Market Share ( Source: ALTA 6 Months 2020)

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When it comes to your safety, we’ve got you covered. #getnoble

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NEIGHBORHOODS to watch Silverleaf 2019

2020

% change

48

61

+27%

$3,245,461

$3,797,667

+17%

AVERAGE PRICE/SF

$528.69

$578.95

+10%

SALE TO LIST PRICE

94%

95%

+1%

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

254

215

-15%

HOMES SOLD AVERAGE SALES PRICE

DC Ranch Country Club 2019

2020

% change

99

112

+13

$1,312,542

$1,758,151

+34

AVERAGE PRICE/SF

$342.17

$392.10

+15%

SALE TO LIST PRICE

97%

96%

-1%

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

125

158

+26%

HOMES SOLD AVERAGE SALES PRICE

Market Data Source: Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service

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Paradise Valley 2019

2020

% change

330

384

+16%

$2,379,629

$2,428,385

+20%

AVERAGE PRICE/SF

$412.74

$439.20

+6%

SALE TO LIST PRICE

94%

96%

+2%

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

275

201

-27%

2019

2020

% change

34

44

+29%

$1,456,382

$1,403,597

-4%

AVERAGE PRICE/SF

$296.86

$301.05

+1%

SALE TO LIST PRICE

95%

95%

-

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

250

240

-4%

2019

2020

% change

46

56

+21%

$1,104,382

$1,178,641

+6%

AVERAGE PRICE/SF

$305.53

$335.38

+10%

SALE TO LIST PRICE

97%

97%

-

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

125

89

-29%

HOMES SOLD AVERAGE SALES PRICE

Desert Highlands HOMES SOLD AVERAGE SALES PRICE

Windgate Ranch HOMES SOLD AVERAGE SALES PRICE

Market Data Source: Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service

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Desert Mountain 2019

2020

% change

148

210

+41%

$1,879,166

$1,937,516

+3%

AVERAGE PRICE/SF

$374.83

$405.97

+8%

SALE TO LIST PRICE

94%

96%

+2%

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

275

201

-27%

2019

2020

% change

48

61

+27%

$3,245,461

$3,797,667

+17%

AVERAGE PRICE/SF

$528.69

$578.95

+10%

SALE TO LIST PRICE

94%

95%

+1%

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

254

215

-16%

2019

2020

% change

105

106

+1%

$1,025,717

$1,087,656

+6%

AVERAGE PRICE/SF

$331.79

$347.04

+4%

SALE TO LIST PRICE

96%

96%

-

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

138

112

-19%

HOMES SOLD AVERAGE SALES PRICE

Arcadia 85018 HOMES SOLD AVERAGE SALES PRICE

Biltmore HOMES SOLD AVERAGE SALES PRICE

Market Data Source: Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service

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WHAT’S IN STORE custom luxury homes Luxury real estate in Arizona is the hottest it has ever been historically. We interviewed three custom home builders in town to get their take on the lastest trends and what’s in store for 2021. Here’s what they had to say:

more money on their homes. they want it to be a sanctuary since they are not traveling as much. On the negative side, some clients are concerned about Prop 208 and the increase in taxes.

How did the events of 2020 impact your business or the custom home industry?

What are the biggest trends in luxury you are seeing this year?

TEMAC: The events of 2020 increased business.

Inventory sold quickly for more money with the higher demand.

TEMAC: Multiple home offices, space for homeschooling kids and lounge/playrooms.

Zoom/digital conferencing has made a huge impact in daily lives so we’ve begun installing integrated in-home video conferencing features as a standard in new construction.

G.S.FRIES: 2020 really highlighted the value of “home” for a lot of people. We do a lot of remodeling as well as construction and we have seen an uptick in business on all fronts. Clients want to make their homes more adaptable to how they live.

AFT: On a positive note, clients are spending THE NOBLE AGENCY | INSIDER

G.S.FRIES: There is more focus on how to make a home function better. In the past, clients were focused on typical features. Now they are looking for their homes to accommodate their personal needs and those vary from client to

TIM McCORMACK

GARY FRIES

temac.com

temac_built_

gsfries.com

g.s.friesconstruction

client. Some want space to work or exercise. It just needs to function for their lifestyle. I don’t see a significant change in the size of homes as there is more of a focus on the value of space utilization.

AFT: People are investing more money into home amenities such as cold plunge pools, dry saunas, home gyms, touchless faucets and multiple home offices for family members.

What is the current demand for luxury builds right now?

TEMAC: Demand is above average right now.

G.S.FRIES: Without question this year will be one of the busiest if not the busiest for us.

AFT: Demand is at a record high. We had an above average year and the market is busier than ever.

BRAD LEAVITT

aftconstruction.com

aft_construction

What are your predictioons for 2021 in the Valley?

TEMAC: Demand will remain high and inventory low. Land infill properties are hard to get and require quick action because capital is readily available and it’s very competitive. I saw a lot in Arcadia and had two hours to respond because they are going that fast.

G.S.FRIES: The market will continue to be HOT. Who doesn’t want to live here? We reside in the top 2 or 3 places in the country that people want to live. People want this lifestyle.

AFT: We are expecting continued growth. With the lock downs, taxes and colder climates, it’s pushing people toward Arizona. We are also going to be seeing a lot more out of state buyers building here.

17

LUXURY HOUSING heads into robust year, with remote work, vaccine driving trends Source: Mansion Global | Written by: Beckie Strum

Demand for single-family homes, private outdoor space and enough room to work remotely will drive robust luxury home sales in 2021—benefiting some of the world’s top luxury markets more than others.

There is now ample data from around the world to support what began as mere speculation nine months ago: That the global Covid-19 pandemic would spur an unprecedented shift in lifestyle choices and housing needs, marked by an overwhelming preference for larger houses, more amenities and less population density.

“We expect the luxury market to perform well,” said George Ratiu, senior economist at realtor. com. With economic recovery underway, a vaccine boosting confidence and a strong stock market, a so-called “wealth effect” will drive the “upper end of the consumer market,” he said.

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Meanwhile, a willingness, and even enthusiasm, among major employers to offer remote work or greater flexibility to employees long-term has cemented what might have been housing trends contained to the pandemic into market shifting forces.

That means 2021 will be a strong year for cities with ample single-family housing stock, preferably on large lots, as is the case in places such as Los Angeles, Sydney and greater Miami.

Meanwhile, San Francisco and New York City face a slower recovery, though one that’s on the horizon as vaccines and increased travel bring vibrant urban centers back to life.

19

TRENDS in luxury Every year interior design trends fade in and out. From color palettes to finishes to furniture styles. We see lights, darks and pops of color.

Some very soft and soothing with others bold and beautiful.

Trends in Arizona began to shift a few years ago when large estate properties began to fade into demand for mid-size and smaller homes. Buyers wanted all of the details and quality they could find in larger custom

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homes but wanted to simplify and have less maintenance. They desired more time to enjoy life and travel. But, the effects of 2020 and the pandemic began to shift that trend.

With the new norm of living, working and schooling from home, buyers put more time and money into simple luxuries like dedicated home offices, more spacious and flexible rooms and generous outdoor spaces. And, home organization was the key.

1 2 3 4

great outdoors When you are spending a lot of time at home, it’s important to have outdoor spaces that give you the luxury of play time, fresh air, relaxation and rejuvenation. Outdoor spaces are trending big for 2021.

private home offices The work-from-home concept has never been more important than now. Wellequipped home offices allow flexibility to work remotely without skipping a beat.

more spacious interiors Flexible spaces like a bonus room or home theater have become more popular to allow extra space for home schooling, working on projects or gathering as a family.

sustainability As homeowners invest back into their homes, whether remodeling, refurnishing or accessorizing, they are more conscious than ever about sustainable luxury products and being socially responsible.

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FENG SHUI for home + business Contributor: Feng Shui by Jen®

Feng Shui is available to all types of properties: Primary or Secondary Home, Single-Family, Condominium, Rental Apartments, Investments, and Business Offices.

In Classical Feng Shui, structures are often viewed as “containers of Qi.” The energy outside (external environment) as well as inside (internal forms) of a building can greatly influence the wellbeing of the residents. That’s why the authentic application of Feng Shui has nothing to do with odd décor or “new age” gimmicks.

On the contrary, the power of Feng Shui lies in the subtlety of the abstract forces of the internal and external environment. When properly performed, Feng Shui can bring you balance, harmony, and prosperity. It eliminates all the guesswork of building and arranging your living space.

What is Feng Shui?

Feng Shui (pronounced “fung-shway”) is a 6000-year-old wisdom from ancient China. The name literally translates to mean wind-water, and it is the study of Qi (energy) flow in the living environment and harnessing positive and benevolent energies to support THE NOBLE AGENCY | INSIDER

and influence life. Although popularly misunderstood, traditional Feng Shui is anything but mythical or esoteric; rather, it is a discipline similar to Traditional Chinese Medicine that is derived from a set of knowledge including the theory of Yin and Yang, the principles of the Chinese Five Elements, and the concept of Qi (energy) — these are the very foundation of the science of Chinese Metaphysics.

What is the difference between Classical and Western Feng Shui?

Classical Feng Shui should not be confused with Western Feng Shui. Western Feng Shui is associated primarily with the application using the “Bagua Map” method for locating the “love corner” or the “wealth corner” of a home.

The traditional approach does not use this simplified methodology; instead, it relies on the use of a Luo Pan (Feng Shui Compass) to understand the natal chart and directional energies of the home, systematically working from the outside-in.

Classical Feng Shui essentially boils down to the study of four important factors: (i) the external environment, (ii) the internal

property, (iii) the influence of time, and (iv) the people living inside the home. These factors provide for a more comprehensive, extensive, and accurate Feng Shui evaluation.

Also, unlike its western counterpart, Classical Feng Shui does not place an emphasis on obvious interior designs (i.e., painting your door red) or object placement (i.e., hanging crystals). This sophisticated system relies on the power of subtlety.

Furthermore, Classical Feng Shui is a “macro” practice that first focuses on the external environment such as the natural landforms surrounding the property. Only then does the analysis move “inward” to focus on the internal floor plan using formulas and other models of calculations.

Classical Feng Shui leaves no guesswork and can often provide very precise and in depth assessment that is tailored specifically to the individuals occupying the home.

Jen Stone (née Nicomedes) is the Founder and Owner of Feng Shui by Jen®, providing comprehensive Classical Feng Shui consulting services for both residences and commercial spaces.

Jen represents the prestigious Raymond Lo School of Feng Shui and Destiny (Hong Kong) and teaches a 5-Day Feng Shui Practitioners Training program in the North America and overseas, including Dubai, Tokyo, Istanbul, and Hong Kong.

She publishes a triannual magazine called Feng Shui Journal and wrote The First Guidebook for Feng Shui Enthusiasts. Known for her dynamic, honest, and refreshing teaching style and no-nonsense approach, Jen has garnered a demand for educational talks on many Chinese Metaphysical subjects with an emphasis on debunking and demystifying popular western myths and misconceptions around Feng Shui, which has led to her appearances in numerous prints and TV interviews.

In 2018, Jen established the International Feng Shui Association USA Chapter, a 501(c)3 nonprofit organization, in an effort to promote, elevate, and revive authentic Classical Feng Shui in the West, and currently sits as the president. www.ifsausa.org.

23

TIPS + TRICKS for an organized move Let’s face it. Moving is overwhelming! There are several ways you can remove the stress out of moving day and we’re here to help. 1) Start Early - remember how much stuff one can accumulate in a home and garage.

Prepare a couple weeks in advance by going through closets and tossing or donating items that you no longer need. Less stuff = less packing! 2) Hire a Professional Mover - moving is expensive but hiring the right mover can be worth every penny to make sure your belongings are well cared for during the journey.

Whether needing a full-service pack/move or self-packing with assistance on moving day, a professional mover will make all the difference. 3) Be Organized, List and Label - Yes, it’s time for you to find your inner Marie Kondo! Keep a list as you are packing and clearly mark boxes with labels to quickly identify which boxes go into which rooms. Happy moving!

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2021

PANTONE yellow + gray Every year the Pantone Color Institute conviens and presents the world with the color that they feel represents the year that lies ahead. In a decision befitting the complexities of last year, the color authority, which standardizes swatches for the design industry, revealed not one, but two hues for its Color of the Year: the neutral Ultimate Gray and vibrant yellow Illuminating.

“It’s a combination that speaks to the resilience, the optimism, hope and positivity that we need, as we reset, renew, reimagine and reinvent,” said Laurie Pressman, vice president of the Pantone Color Institute and executive director, Leatrice Eiseman.

It’s the first time a shade of gray has been selected, and the second time two colors have been chosen. In the marketplace you will see that Pantone’s Color(s) of the Year will reflect in fashion, beauty and home decor trends.

Therapeutically the colors are meant to soothe, calm and/or uplift and after 2020’s global pandemic, that is exactly the direction we want to be heading.

According to Pantone’s press statement, Illuminating is associated with optimism and vivacity, while Ultimate Gray encourages “feelings of composure, steadiness and resilience.”

However you interpret Pantone’s choices this year, Pressman and Eiseman emphasize the strength of bringing two contrasting colors together.

“I think (one) thing that’s become abundantly clear during this time...across the world is this deeper understanding of how much we need each other,” said Pressman. “How our connections to other people, our relationships with other people, give us that emotional support.”

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MONICA MONSON CEO + Designated Broker/ Owner

CHRIST IAN CORBETT REALTOR® Monson Luxury Group

MICHELLE SAROCKA REALTOR® Monson Luxury Group

DEBORAH FARRAR REALTOR® Monson Luxury Group

LEAH WALCZAK REALTOR®

JOHN NEISCH REALTOR®

JE T’AIME GREEN REALTOR®

NOLAN HYNES REALTOR®

MICHELE GEWENIGER REALTOR®

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T RACY FIT ZGERALD REALTOR® Fitzgerald Luxury Group

T IM FIT ZGERALD REALTOR® Fitzgerald Luxury Group

NICOLE HUMPHREY REALTOR®

KEVIN GURRY REALTOR® Fitzgerald Luxury Group

ASHLEY REISING REALTOR®

CINDY DAVIS REALTOR®

HEAT HER NICOSIA REALTOR® Fitzgerald Luxury Group

ANGELICA FRANCO Director of Marketing + Events

T RACEY GOETT L Licensed Executive Assistant / Transaction Coordinator

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We’re kicking off 2021 like...

480.420.4LUX (4589) | thenobleagency.com 15551 N. Greenway Hayden Loop, Suite 200 Scottsdale, AZ 85260

The master class of luxury real estate.™

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