City Resilience Profiling Tool Implementation in Yakutsk Mid-Term Report
Prepared by: UN-Habitat City Resilience Profiling Programme with the support of the City Administration of Yakutsk
Executive Summary
Introduction
Overview of CRPT Implementation Process
Urban Context
Annexes & Appendices
Going Forward
Preliminary Risk Analysis Data Assessment
Table of Contents
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Introduction
Chapter 1: Overview of CRPT Implementation Process
1.1. CRPT Methodology Description
1.2. Implementation Process in Yakutsk
Chapter 2: Urban Context
2.1. City Overview
2.2. Conditioning Factors and Challenges
Chapter 3: Preliminary Risk Analysis
3.1. Preliminary Shocks Analysis
-------3.1.1. Identification of Shocks
-------3.1.2. Preliminary Prioritisation of Shocks
-------3.1.3. Initial Conclusions
3.2. Preliminary Stresses Analysis
-------3.2.1. Preliminary Identification of Stresses
-------3.2.2. Initial Conclusions
3.3. Next Steps
Chapter 4. Data Assessment
4.1. City ID Assessment
4.2. Risk Reduction Assessment
4.3. Urban Element Assessment
-------4.3.1. Built Environment
-------4.3.2. Supply Chain and Logistics
-------4.3.3. Basic Infrastructure
-------4.3.4. Mobility
-------4.3.5. Municipal Public Services
-------4.3.6. Social Inclusion and Protection
-------4.3.7. Economy
-------4.3.8. Ecology
4.4. Next Steps
Going Forward
Annexes
i. Detailed Implementation Process
ii. Key Messages (Climate Change)
iii. Bibliography & References
Appendices
i. Selected List: Shocks
ii. Selected List: Stresses & Stressors
Executive Summary
2. Executive Summary
Over the past year, UN-Habitat City Resilience Profiling Programme (CRPP) and the City Administration of Yakutsk has been in the process of implementing the City Resilience Profiling Tool (CRPT) to build resilience in the city through enhancing capacities and developing targeted recommendations for actions. This Mid-term Technical Report was written to present preliminary analytical findings and guide the succeeding phases towards the successful completion of the project. Early findings from this implementation process include:
߰ Yakutsk faces a myriad of enduring challenges due to its geographical characteristics as well as emerging challenges, namely climate change and population growth and urbanization, that together continue to shape the city.
߰ Most identified shocks of Yakutsk, particularly those tentatively prioritised as its most critical (floods, wildfire and subsidence form permafrost thawing), are projected to increase in both frequency and impact due to climate change trends.
߰ The preliminary identification of stresses in Yakutsk highlights issues derived from increased anthropogenic pressures on the environment and gaps in community and territorial development; however, the transversal perspective provided by CRPT data assessment still needs to be applied to adequately capture the presence of other relevant stresses.
߰ While the quality of data collected and reported for components that reached substantial completion is relatively high and informative, due to challenges faced in the process, the progress of the data collection itself is slow and the current amount is still insufficient to complete a robust risk analysis and perform a stakeholder analysis.
More rigorous data collection efforts and discussions with the City Administration are needed to complete the analysis of the risks faced by Yakutsk and understand the actors involved in order to determine Lines of Action that can lead to evidence-based and implementable Actions for Resilience. Going forward, the Yakutsk Focal Points and UN-Habitat CRPP should follow these general next steps:
1. Establish a Resilience Board who would be tasked with supplementing and validating information and serve as the repository for all CRPT outputs in Yakutsk.
2. Complete Data Collection and Data Assessment for all data SETs through a combination of data mining from municipal resources and external sources, and conducting technical meetings and workshops.
3. Finalise Analysis – specifically the Risk Analysis and the Local Government and Stakeholders Analysis – upon progressive completion of data collection.
4. Determine Lines of Action by presenting analysis and reaching a consensus with the municipality (Resilience Board) and other relevant stakeholders.
5. Co-develop Recommendations of Actions for Resilience using knowledge of the current state of the city and its trend scenario based on the existing development trajectory, in order to target a resilient and sustainable development scenario.
6. Deliver outputs that enable integration into local government processes for planning and monitoring interventions.
These recommended steps allow not only for the successful completion of the project itself, but more importantly, the incorporation of resilience principles and processes in Yakutsk even after the project has ended. In doing so, the objective of making Yakutsk more inclusive, sustainable and resilient to its existing and projected risks can be achieved.
Introduction
Introduction
With over half of the global population living in cities, and with around 3 billion more people expected to live in urban areas by 2050, cities are facing unprecedented demographic, environmental, economic, social and spatial challenges. Rapid urbanization coupled with new and magnified challenges resulting from climate change are resulting in more people facing more risk in our cities. Building resilience into cities and to the urbanization process is therefore essential if we are to ensure that development gains are not lost when cities are inevitably hit by shocks, stresses or challenges. UN-Habitat’s urban resilience work aims to support local governments and relevant stakeholders to transform urban areas into safer and better areas to live in, and improve their capacity to absorb, adapt and recover from these potential shocks and stresses, while transforming itself in a positive way towards sustainability.
UN-Habitat has been working closely with the City Administration of Yakutsk to create a comprehensive profile of the city and recommend actions to improve its resilience through the City Resilience Profiling Programme (CRPP) and its associated City Resilience Profiling Tool (CRPT). The CRPT provides a universal framework that utilises verifiable and contextualized data of the city to establish their “resilience profile” and form an analysis and diagnosis of its most pressing challenges. This profile and diagnosis provides a base for the creation of evidence-based and implementable “Actions for Resilience” (A4R) that are then incorporated into urban development strategies and existing management processes. Through strong guidance in policy-making, this process is designed to support the local government to take an informed decision-making approach and to contribute to long-term, resilient and sustainable urban development.
This Mid-term Technical Report (Report) aims to provide the partner city with updates on the progress of the City Resilience Profiling Tool (CRPT) implementation. It presents the status and preliminary findings from the implementation process. The Report is divided into several chapters, each serving a specific purpose, as follows:
1. Overview of CRPT Implementation Process: provides a brief description of the CRPT methodology and how it is currently being implemented in Yakutsk.
2. Urban Context: grounds the report in the context of Yakutsk, providing an overview of its development narrative and current conditions and challenges to be considered in succeeding analyses.
3. Preliminary Risk Analysis: presents the first among a series of analyses that together forms the diagnosis of Yakutsk. The analysis in this chapter focuses on the essential discussion on the shocks and stresses faced by Yakutsk, based on input from the initial stages of the implementation process.
4. Data Assessment: reports on the status of the data required to complete the analysis and diagnosis of the city, including challenges in data collection and measures on how to address these.
5. Going Forward: highlights key findings from this Report and proposes next steps for the succeeding stages of implementation.
Reviewing the process and setting forth ways forward provides guidance to UN-Habitat CRPP and the City Administration of Yakutsk on how to ensure both the successful completion and the best possible output from this implementation process, towards a resilient and sustainable Yakutsk City.
Overview of
1. Overview of CRPT Implementation Process
UN-Habitat’s flagship tool for urban resilience, the City Resilience Profiling Tool, provides a cross-cutting diagnostic and actionoriented approach for resilience-based sustainable urban development. Its methodology is based on UN-Habitat’s definition of urban resilience, which encompasses a theoretical approach followed by a more practical description on what resiliencebuilding efforts entail and target.
Urban resilience is the measurable ability of any urban system, with its inhabitants, to maintain continuity through all shocks and stresses, while positively adapting and transforming toward sustainability.
A resilient city assesses, plans and acts to prepare for and respond to hazards – natural and human-made, sudden and slow-onset, expected and unexpected – in order to protect and enhance people’s lives, secure development gains, foster an investable environment, and drive positive change.
These definitions are important for cities implementing the CRPT and their collaborative partners as they outline the overall objective for the city. Without a shared understanding, engagement of stakeholders and buy-in from partners is challenging.
The Urban Resilience Principles were developed to guide the process of achieving urban resilience in cities. Note that these principles are embedded within the structure, design, and implementation approach of the CRPT.
The following sections present the methodology used by CRPT to analyse, diagnose and recommend actions for resilience in cities, before proceeding to detail how this methodology is currently being implemented in Yakutsk. It is essential to understand how the different phases and activities in the process coalesce not only towards implementable actions, but also towards increasing the city stakeholders’ awareness and capacities for resilience. Taking stock of the process at this mid-point further exposes the advantages and difficulties of implementing the CRPT in this unique context in order to provide a clearer direction on the next steps.
Urban
Resilience Principles
Principle 1:
Dynamic nature of urban resilience
Resilience is not a condition but a state that cannot be sustained unless the system evolves, transforms and adapts to current and future circumstances and changes. Therefore, building resilience requires the implementation of contextspecific and flexible plans and actions that can be adjusted to the dynamic nature of risk and resilience;
Principle 2:
Systemic approach to cities
Recognising that cities are comprised of systems interconnected through complex networks and that changes in one part have the potential to propagate through the whole network, building resilience requires a broad and holistic approach that takes into account these interdependencies when the urban system is exposed to disturbances;
Principle 3:
Promote participation in planning and governance
A resilient system ensures the preservation of life, limitation of injury, and enhancement of the ‘prosperity’ of its inhabitants by promoting inclusiveness and fostering comprehensive and meaningful participation of all, particularly those in vulnerable situations, in planning and various governance processes. Such an approach can ensure sense of ownership, thus achieving successful implementation of plans and actions.
Principle 4:
Multi-stakeholder engagement
A resilient system should ensure the continuity of governance, economy, commerce and other functions and flows upon which its inhabitants rely. This necessitates promoting open communication and facilitating integrative collaborations between a broad array of stakeholders ranging from public entities, private sector, civil society, and academia to all city’s inhabitants.
Principle 5:
Strive towards development goals
Resilience building should drive towards, safeguard and sustain development goals. Approaches to resilience should ensure that efforts to reduce risk and alleviate certain vulnerabilities does not generate or increase others. It must guarantee that human rights are fulfilled, respected and protected of under any circumstances.
1.1 CRPT: Methodology and Alignment with International Agenda 2030
The implementation of the CRPT is characterized by four overlapping steps: 1) data collection, 2) analysis, 3) diagnosis, and 4) recommendations for actions for resilience. In order to better understand how the data collected leads to derived actions, clarity regarding how these key implementation processes are pursued and relate to one another is required. The implementation process is discussed briefly in the section below.
To facilitate the data collection and analysis steps, the CRPT is structured in four SETs. Each SET serves a specific focus, through which information covering the entire urban system are mapped, analysed and inter-related. Data analysed throughout these SETs, and subsequently presented in this report, are derived from existing databases, official documents, research and publications, among other verifiable sources. While much of these data provide quantitative information to conduct evidencebased analysis of the city, findings are complemented by a qualitative sources gathered through workshops, expert readings, etc., in an attempt to capture the city’s nuances and contextual realities. Together, quantitative and qualitative data collection and analysis lead to an in-depth diagnosis of the city, thereby providing a base for the development of Actions for Resilience
As is illustrated in the diagram below, data is primarily collected in SET 1 – City ID, for context-related information, and in SET 4 – Urban Elements, for performance-related information. These data provide a basis to analyse the current strengths and weakness of the Urban System and its performance – the WHAT.
Following this synthesis of data comprising the WHAT, information gathered regarding key stakeholders (including the local government) and shocks, stresses and challenges (to which the city is found to be more or less vulnerable) are incorporated into the analysis.
In SET 2, stakeholder-related information is used to analyse the role and relationships of the different institutions and organisations acting in the city and determine the most influential actors – the WHO. This is captured in a Local Government and Stakeholder Analysis, which provides a brief mapping on the local government’s structure, roles, and responsibilities, sa well as an overview of the key stakeholders from outside the local government (e.g. regional, provincial, national government, private companies, community organisations, NGOs, etc.).
SET 3 provides information regarding the existence, interactions, and prioritisation of the shocks, stresses and challenges in the city – the WHY. The Shocks and Stresses Analysis that examines the WHY by providing an overview of the various hazards faced by the city and summarizes the analytical process conducted through which an identification and prioritization of these were determined. This would include whether or not, and to what degree, risk reduction measures have been established to address these.
Information on the existing development efforts, based on established policy and/or legal frameworks, which guides the future development of the city (i.e. existing policies, plans and initiatives), provides a lens through which to apply findings derived from data collected in the aforementioned four SETs. This information is organised in an inventory that coherently maps these in relation to WHAT the issues are, WHO are able to act, and WHY action should be done, to determine current areas of focus, gaps and overlaps – to formulate HOW to act.
The result of these analyses is Lines of Actions or thematic areas of prioritisation, which are identified and agreed upon with the local government. Following a consolidation of CRPT analytical and diagnostic findings and integration of input from the local government and other key stakeholders, a focused, consensus-derived path towards resilience is formed. The Lines of Actions explore these resulting themes, presenting a culmination of collected data findings and preliminary analytical efforts, in combination with key stakeholder input derived from the several workshops conducted in conjunction with the local government. These Lines of Action can vary in scope but relate directly to both quantitative and qualitative information, representing a synthesis of each methodological step in the CRPT implementation.
From these Lines of Action, recommendations for Actions for Resilience (A4R) are developed and proposed in order to co-create a resilient and sustainable roadmap for the city. These Actions are intended to be both implementable and feasible, yet precise in targeting and ambitious in their expected impact.
At the end of the implementation process, the CRPT should be able to provide the city with the following outputs:
߰ Stakeholder engagement and awareness on risks, capacities, strengths and opportunities in an effort to increase commitments to build resilience at the local level and develop a shared vision for a resilient city.
߰ Development of objective knowledge regarding the urban system based on measurable, verifiable and results-focused data collection and diagnosis that can inform decision-making and investment priorities.
߰ Development of a City Profile and Resilience Diagnosis, which will provide a snapshot in time of Yakutsk, identification of stakeholders, hazards, and an evaluation of all aspects of the urban system.
߰ Recommendations for Actions for Resilience developed in coordination with the local government with support from relevant stakeholders that are informed by the CRPT analysis in line with city strategy and plans.
With increased capacities and practical methods for monitoring the city’s resilience and creating further actions, and consequently reporting and delivering on development targets, at the conclusion of the implementation process the local government will be well-positioned to embed resilience in all future decision-making and continuously work towards a resilient and sustainable city.
This methodology was developed in alignment with globally agreed inter-governmental frameworks that promote resilient and sustainable cities. Aligning CRPT with these frameworks enables the local governments who have implemented CRPT to better understand, report, and deliver on targets.
International Frameworks
Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction
The Sendai Framework calls for resilience on all levels, from local to regional and national. CRPT contributes to the Framework’s overall objective to reduce vulnerability to disasters and increase preparedness for response and recovery, including contributions to the Four Priorities for Action:
Ϙ Priority 1. Contribution: Building evidence-based knowledge on disaster risk reduction
Ϙ Priority 2. Contribution: Strengthening disaster risk governance through the adoption of plans
Ϙ Priority 3. Contribution: Investment in risk reduction for resilience
Ϙ Priority 4. Contribution: Scaling-up of preparedness and a ‘build-back better’ approach in recovery
Sustainable Development Goals
Urban resilience relates to key elements of sustainable urban development and the goals of the post-2015 Sustainable Development Agenda, notably in Goals 1, 2, 3, 9, 11, 13 and 14 where resilience is referenced but also in other goals where it is implied. Resilience is also a strong component of many of the stated aims throughout the preamble and paragraphs 7, 9, 14, 23, 29 and 33 of the Declaration to the SDGs.
Paris Agreement on Climate Change
Article 7 calls for strengthening of resilience to climate change in the pursuit of sustainable development. By engaging local governments in these efforts, resilience in cities contributes to the following principles of the Paris Agreement:
Ϙ Adaptation (dealing with impacts of climate change)
Ϙ Loss and Damage (minimizing loss and damage linked to climate change)
Ϙ Role of cities (building resilience)
World Humanitarian Summit – Agenda for Humanity
The core responsibilities defined at the World Humanitarian Summit have strong foundations in resilience thinking and building. The approach adopted by UN-Habitat to build resilience contributes to Core Priority 1D, 4A, 4B, 4C, and 5A.
New Urban Agenda
Advancing the urban resilience agenda and working globally delivers on a number of key goals of the New Urban Agenda agreed by Member States during Habitat III, most prominently:
Ϙ New resilient planning paradigms in urban systems
Ϙ Legal and regulatory frameworks to enable and govern urban development
Ϙ Analysing risks inherent in urban areas
Ϙ Promoting good practice in local economic, development strategies through marketing safer, resilient cities are fulfilled, respected and protected of under any circumstances
1.2 Implementation Process in Yakutsk
Project Objetive
To make the City of Yakutsk more inclusive, sustainable, and resilient through strengthening the knowledge and capacity of the local government and develop targeted actions for building resilience.
Since early 2016, UN-Habitat CRPP has been engaged in building resilience with the City Administration of Yakutsk through a series of awareness-raising and training events and activities. These include Yakutsk’s inclusion in the UN-Habitat’s “Trends in Urban Resilience” publication, as well as UN-Habitat participation in the Yakutsk’s Foresight Fleet 2017, among others. The implementation of the CRPT officially began in May 2018, and for the following 2-year process, UN-Habitat CRPP has been working together with the Yakutsk City, primarily through designated personnel (Focal Points) to collect data and engage stakeholders in order to create an in-depth City Profile, Resilience Diagnosis and Actions for Resilience for Yakutsk.
Assigned municipal Focal Points received training on urban resilience more generally and the CRPT more specifically, not only regarding key concepts and rationale but also in specificities on data collection and analysis. The Yakutsk Focal Points, in coordination with designated UN-Habitat personnel, would directly implement the CRPT in Yakutsk for the project. To ensure sufficient knowledge and support for the municipality, UN-Habitat hosted two Focal Point Training events in the Barcelona office, complemented by additional remote training sessions and regular meetings remotely performed with Yakutsk municipal Focal Points and UN-Habitat CRPP. Furthermore, UN-Habitat performed a number of awareness-raising and capacity-building sessions during periodic field visits in Yakutsk to further engagement with key city partners.
The CRPT is being implemented in Yakutsk following the methodology previously described, consisting of the overlapping steps of data collection, analysis, diagnosis and recommendations for action. These efforts are primarily conducted through data mining, technical meetings, and workshops. The workshops in particular aim not only to populate and derive necessary information, but also to engage and train municipal technicians and councilors, as well as other relevant stakeholders, on urban resilience and its transversal nature. The aim of periodic meetings, dialogue, discussions and workshops, once the first phases of data mining and data collection have been carried out, is to build a Resilience Board composed a multi-sectorial group of representatives within Yakutsk municipality, who will be the custodian of the work performed and lead resilience efforts towards the future.
Data collection (discussed further in Chapter 4. Data Assessment) is currently ongoing in Yakutsk. However, early results from the data collection has produced a City Snapshot, published on the Urban Resilience Hub, which provides a general contextual overview of the city (see Chapter 2), as well as a preliminary risk analysis (see Chapter 3). The completion of data collection will provide a complete City Profile, which would serve as the basis for the Resilience Diagnosis and lead to the composition of the recommendations for Actions for Resilience
Urban Context Urban Context
2. Urban Context
In order to properly evaluate the current state of the city, anticipate its development trend, and guide it towards a resilient and sustainable scenario, it is paramount to understand the city’s context and derive the factors that are affecting its overall development. Yakutsk, in particular, has unique challenges that should be carefully studied and considered when diagnosing and recommending resilience-building actions.
Drawing mostly from information provided by the local government in SET 1 – Urban Context and the City Snapshot, this chapter provides a brief description of and key information about the city. It then proceeds to highlight conditioning factors and challenges identified through input from the municipality and supplemented by additional studies.
2.1. City Overview
Area Region
Climate Typle (Köppen-Geiger)
Average Annual Temperature Temperature Amplitude
Frost Days Ice Days
Heating Degree Days
Average Annual Precipitation
Population Size
Population Density
Population Growth
Ethnic and/or National Groups Life Expectancy
Local Gross Domestic Product Main Economic Sectors
Median Income
Table 1: Key Information City of Yakutsk
3604 km2 (“Yakutsk Gorod” City District) / 171.4 km2 (city of Yakutsk) Sakha Republic (Yakutia), Far East Region, Russian Federation
90,08 inhabitants/km2 (City District), 1790 inhabitants/km2 (City of Yakutsk)
11.7% (from 2011-2016)
Sakha (Yakut) - 48%, Russian - 38%, Other - 15%
70.4 years
2.14 billion USD
Service, Heavy Industrial, Light Industrial 1043.62 USD
Source: CRPT data collection process, UN-Habitat CRPP (2019)
Yakutsk is the capital of the Sakha Republic (Yakutia) and located just south of the Arctic Circle at the Far East region of the Russian Federation. It is the world’s largest settlement built on continuous permafrost and known as the coldest city on earth. Its temperature averages -8.8°C with extreme seasonal differences ranging from -60°C in winter to +40°C in summer.
Yakutsk originated as a fortress in the mid-17th century. Due to its severe climate, it was used as a “prison without bars” for exiled revolutionaries. In the mid-19th century, Yakutsk became the centre of the newly recognised independent region of Yakutia (now the Republic of Sakha). This coincided with the industrial development of the region, primarily due to mining, which transformed Yakutsk into an economic hub and spurred the growth of the city, making it into a political, social, and cultural centre not only of Yakutia, but also of the entire Far East.
Currently, Yakutsk remains as the centre of the region and where the majority of the governmental, educational and business institutions are located. It is home to about a third of the population of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia). In 2017, there were 328 493 inhabitants, of which 47% are Sakha (Yakut), 38% are Russian and the remaining 15% are a mix of different ethnicities, mostly from Central Asia. The population is fairly young, with an average age of 32.3 years.
Approximately 95% of the population live in the urban area of Yakutsk (city of Yakutsk). This covers a thin strip of land (about 3km wide) with an area of 174.1 km2 at the Tuymaada Valley along the left bank of Lena River, while the entirety of Yakutsk City District (“Yakutsk Gorod”) has a total area of 3604 km2. The City District includes the islands and villages north and south of the river from the Tabaginsky Cape to the Kangalassky Cape, and the vast forest lands to the west of the valley. Outside the territory of Yakutsk but within its sphere of influence are the independent Zhatay municipal district and the villages located on the other side of Lena River. The right side of the river is also where the closest train connection is located. So far, there are no bridges or any permanent crossings connecting the two sides of Lena River.
“Yakutsk Gorod” City District Russia
City of Yakutsk
Republic of Sakha
Figure 1. Yakutsk Location
Source: CRPP compilation based on Google Satellite & City Administration data
The urban “city of Yakutsk” itself is composed of 8 districts. Tsentral’ny is the central district of Yakutsk which is characterised by a mixed fabric of historical, administrative (both of local and regional levels), business and leisure types of buildings. Next to it lies Oktyabr’sky, which also includes some key facilities, such as central bus station, North-Eastern Federal University, Museum of Mammoth, among others, as well as two largest green areas within the city’s built environment - Viluysk cemetery and a central park, which is shared with Tsentral’ny. In general, the two districts are considered prestigious to live in and have higher rents.
Embracing them from the top and the right side lies Stroitel’ny, - named after several construction factories located in this area, which now ceased their operations, or are working at a limited capacity. Saisarsky district, named after one of the biggest lakes within Yakutsk, borders with Oktyabr’sky from the other side, separated by a Viluysky road, connecting with the cities in the West. Previously a village, it has one of the largest areas of detached housing within Yakutsk. Avtodorozhny, located in the south of the city, stretches along the Pokrovsky road which links Yakutsk with other cities in the south-west, passing through Vladimirovka and Tabaga to the city of Pokrovsk, right to Mokhsogollokh, the center of the construction industry of Yakutia, and then to Lensk and Olekminsk. Previously a construction area, it is mainly comprised of detached housing and supporting industries, such as a poultry farm.
In the north of the city Gagarinsky district hosts the international airport of Yakutsk and the supporting businesses around it. Gubinsky district, features a city beach and a dam which connects Yakutsk to Malyi Khatystakh, one of the ‘green meadow’ islands in the Lena river. Up from Gubinsky, to the same side of the highway connecting the city to the airport and the North, lies Promyshlenny, which is an industrial part of the city. It features Yakutsk Port and related warehousing and transit shipment zones of industrial, technical and consumer goods, which are being carried out from Yakutsk to most of the Republic’s regional districts (‘uluses’). It also hosts important service-providing facilities, such as an electricity station, water intake and wastewater treatment plant, as well as various food and serviceproviding factories. Finally, Markha represents a newly created expansion of the city in the north.
The urban morphology type of the city of Yakutsk can be considered mixed, with no clear dominance of one type of housing across districts, due to the ray-like urban form of the city radiating from its core.
While most of the surrounding villages are mainly used for residential and agricultural purposes, such as farming and cattle raising, it is important to highlight Magan, which has an airport for inter-regional flights, and is an important hub for transport in the inter-seasons. In the near future, Staraya Tabaga may have a growing importance, as it will be a first bridging point on the left side of the river when the railway extension from Nizhny Bestyakh across the Lena river is built.
Table 3. Administrative divisions and districts of Yakutsk
Source: CRPP compilation based on OpenStreetMap & City Administration Data
Ecosystems Characterisation:
Except for the Tuymaada valley and Magan village, the rest of Yakutsk City District is barely inhabited and is mostly constituted of forests. The inhabited area is composed of 11 settlements comprising 6.9% total land area, while agricultural lands (land plots for gardening, farming, agricultural production and agricultural use) occupy 13.8% of total land area. Forest lands occupy a majority of the area at 74.2%. The remaining land is dedicated to industry, energy, transport, communications and other special purposes. The geological structure of the city of Yakutsk and its suburbs is described as an ancient bent of the Siberian platform, filled with marine sediments of Mesozoic age, covered with sand, loams and other sedimentary rocks of later periods.1
The city of Yakutsk is located in a flat area along in the valley of the Lena River (Tuymaada valley), edged by a slightly hilly plain that towers over the valley at about 100 meters covered with pine-larch taiga. The city proper is separated from the river bed of the Lena by a wide grassy plain called “The Green Meadow”, which is the flood plain of the Lena River and is inundated by high water in spring.
Apart from the mighty body of the Lena river, the city of Yakutsk, being situated on alluvial grounds, has a vast multitude of lakes, streams and other areas of water, in total counting up to more than 200 water bodies, including 190 lakes, located within its boundaries.2 For this reason, water forms an essential part of the built environment of Yakutsk, contributing to its urban form, environmental quality and storm water system. One of the essential linking elements of the water system is Gorodskoy Kanal, or GorKanal, - a city canal which forms two rings connecting an entire system of lakes and river between themselves and the Lena river. GorKanal takes its start in the south of the city from Shestakovka river, and then follows through man-made canal to Atlassovskie and Sergylakh lakes, where it is divided into bigger (Bolshoe) and smaller (Maloe) rings, navigating around the city and ending up in Lena river in North-East end of Yakutsk.3
Figure 3. Map of Water and Green Areas of Yakutsk
Source: CRPP compilation based on OpenStreetMap & City Administration Data
Administrative Characterisation:
Yakutsk is a City District within the government of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), a region of the Russian Federation. The City District is led by a City Administration that is headed by a Mayor elected every 5 years. The Mayor selects two First Deputy Mayors as heads of Municipal Affairs and Territory Development. Several deputies are appointed to head the areas of economy and finance, agriculture, trade and business development, social affairs, and finally one deputy leads the City Administration as Chief of Staff. The City District is further subdivided into administrative districts, which covers the “city of Yakutsk” and its suburban villages..
Head of the City District City of Yakutsk”
• Management of architecture and urban development policy
• Department of law
• Human resource management
• Office of interaction with law enforcement agencies
• Department of control and audit
• Administrative commission
• Department of external affairs and implementation of Investment projects
First Deputy Head of City Facilities
• Department of housing and communal services and energies
• MKU “Office of civil defense, protection of the population and territory from natural and technological disasters, fire safety”
• MKU “City’s facilities management service”
• Territorial authorities
• MBU “Ritual”
Deputy Head of Agriculture, Trade, and Entrepreneurship Development
• Department of entrepreneurship, consumer market, tourism and transport development
• Department of agriculture
• MUP “Public transport company of Yakutsk”
• Territorial authorities
• MUP “Gorsnab”
Deputy Head - Head of MKU “Management of Internal Affairs”
• MKU “Management of internal affairs”
First Deputy Head of Territorial Development
• Department of urban development
• MBU “The main institution of architecture and planning”
• Road management
• MKU “Department of housing relations”
• MKU “Glavstroy”
• MUP “Agency of territorial development”
Deputy Head - Head of Apparatus
• Management of administration’s activities
• Department of accounting and reporting
• Management of the implementation of normation technology and municipal services
• Department of relations with public media
• MKU “Center of information technologies”
Deputy Head for Social Affairs
• Department of education system
• MKU “Centralized accounting of municipal educational institutions”
• Department of Culture and spiritual development
• MKU “Centralized library system”
• MKU “Centralized accounting of municipal cultural institutions”
• Management of young generation and family policy
• Department of physical culture and sports
• MKU “Agency for physical culture and sport”
• Commission for minors and protection of their rights
• Department of trusteeship and guardianship
• Department of labor protection
compilation based on City Administration Data
The local government created the strategic plan, Strategy of social and economic development of Yakutsk until 2032, which proposes three complementary models of development:
• Industrial model that involves the development of the city as an industrial and service center;
• Post-industrial model assumes high rates of growth through the active investment and demand stimulation for the new quality services;
• Development model based on the “knowledge economy” that implies the creation of conditions for the mass emergence of new innovative companies in all sectors of the economy.
Through this strategy, the City Administration of Yakutsk targets to achieve high quality and standard of living of citizens based on the harnessing of economic, scientific, educational, cultural and innovation potentials, comprehensive modernization of the urban environment and the transition to a model of sustainable development of the city of Yakutsk.4
Figure 4. Organisational chart of the City Administration of Yakutsk Source: CRPP
2.2. Conditioning Factors and Challenges
Yakutsk has achieved a state of development rare for settlements in similar conditions. However, it is important to highlight the overarching challenges, due to enduring or emerging factors, which require Yakutsk’s continued adaptation in order to advance on its development targets.
• Remoteness
• Extreme climate conditions
• Permafrost
• Climate change
• Population growth and urbanization
• Institutional coordination
Enduring Challenges:
Remoteness
Yakutsk has a distinctly remote location in the northeast portion of Siberia where the closest significant urban area is over a thousand kilometers away. This isolation is enhanced by the lack of physical infrastructure connecting it to the rest of the country. The main road and train line leading to the southern part of Russia is at the other side of the Lena River, of which there is no permanent crossing, and the road leading to the west have stretches that have not yet been fully built. The only consistent option for travel outside Yakutsk is through air travel, as land and water routes are only available on specific seasons of the year (winter for the ice roads and summer for river ferries and barges).
Extreme climate conditions
Yakutsk has a dry subarctic continental climate with severe winters and hot summers, with a difference of over 100°C between the two periods. Cold winds from the Arctic Ocean are brought to Yakutsk by the natural northwestern flow of the atmosphere, which makes the city one of the coldest in the world (256 heating days with an average temperature of -20.6°C). The winter season is long with extremely low temperatures, lasting from the beginning of October to the end of April, and averaging -38°C in January with lows reaching -60°C. In summer, the daily temperature amplitudes are very large, with daytime temperatures in July sometimes exceeding +30°C, and at other times, exhibiting frosts. Rain and snowfall in Yakutsk is considered low.
Permafrost
The city of Yakutsk is built entirely on continuous permafrost. While the contruction-climatic zoning characterizes the permafrost type as partially favorable to construction of buildings and structures (zone IA)5 there is unavoidable inherent difficulty building with these soil conditions due to their materiality and seasonality, including high capital and maintenance costs, and the need for complex monitoring to ensure continuous functionality of the facilities. In addition, the increased thawing of permafrost due anthropogenic pressures, exacerbated by climate change, is further threatening this very foundation of the city, causing ground subsidence, deterioration of housing and infrastructure, among other issues.6
Emerging Challenges:
Climate Change
While climate change impacts can be felt worldwide in varying degrees, the Arctic zone is particularly affected in terms of increased speed and strength, known as the “Arctic Amplification”7. Yakutsk, for one, is projected as very likely to be significantly affected by intense warming by the end of the 21st century with a projected increase of 4°C (RCP 4.5) to 8°C (RCP 8.5). Warming shows a visible seasonality, with greater intensity from mid-autumn to early-spring. Apart from these seasonal effects and the increasing risk of other hazards, the changing climate has particularly significant implications on the future stability of permafrost, which would be experiencing far faster thawing than expected. Furthermore, permafrost contains a large reservoir of greenhouse gases (methane), which through their release in the atmosphere will enhance ongoing warming.
Population Growth and Urbanisation
Yakutsk is experiencing rapid population growth, due to relatively high birth rates and increasing migration. The population of Yakutsk grew by a third since the 1990s, and just from 2011-2016, increased by 11.8%. From the year 2000, an estimated 46 000 migrants have arrived in Yakutsk, with an average of about 6 000 per year in recent years. This migration is mostly intra-regional, from rural areas within Sakha Republic (78.5% of migrants in 2017). While urbanisation can be beneficial for Yakutsk’s development potential, it is also pushing its current capacities to the limits, adding pressure on the city’s already delicate environment.
Institutional Coordination
The existence of varying levels of jurisdictions and competencies, often overlapping, among different governmental levels raises concerns on the difficulties of coordination on local-scale development, especially considering the unique conditions of Yakutsk. Furthermore, there is limited space for independent local-level decision-making, as the central government retains a considerable presence in the local decisions through federal policies and representation in state companies.8
Together with the knowledge of the context of the city, these identified challenges serve as overarching themes that continuously affect Yakutsk. These should be taken into consideration when analyzing the urban system and how this intersects with the plausible shocks and stresses faced by the city, explored further in the next chapter.
Figure 5. Change in average air temperature in Yakutsk due to Climate Change based on RCP 8.5 Scenario Projections
Source: Annex ii
Preliminary Risk Analysis
3. Preliminary Risk Analysis
This chapter presents an overall mapping of the most prevalent issues affecting the city of Yakutsk, based on early results from the CRPT implementation. This chapter aims to assess the city’s proneness to shocks and the stresses affecting its performance while taking into consideration the city’s contextual conditions and challenges discussed in the previous section. The preliminary identification and analysis discussed herein will directly contribute to the diagnosis derived at the latter part of the implementation process, by highlighting the weaknesses and pressures present in the city, along with the potential threats they pose, and laying the groundwork for designing implementable and adaptable actions at the local level aimed at decreasing the possible impacts of these threats.
A list of plausible shocks and initially identified stresses of Yakutsk were determined during the initiation stages of the implementation process, culminated through a workshop held during the UN-Habitat CRPP mission to Yakutsk in July 2017. With the facilitation of the CRPP team, the city’s most prevalent shocks and stresses were defined by members of the City Administration of Yakutsk and various stakeholders present during the workshop, and elaborated further with the municipal Focal Points during the data collection process. The preliminary identification, from a mix of local knowledge enhanced by CRPP’s urban resilience expertise and other studies, provides an initial focus for analysis that will then be verified and modified based on the results of the succeeding steps. More in-depth dialogue and bilateral meetings are needed to finally co-produce the risk profile of the city with Yakutsk City Administration.
3.1. Preliminary Shocks Analysis
Shocks are uncertain, abrupt or long-onset events that have potential to impact the urban system, moving it to a disturbed state. The CRPT recognises six main groups of shocks relevant to urban areas: Natural, Biological, Environmental, Technological, Complex and Societal. Figure 5 below graphically represents the organisation of potential shocks evaluated as a part of the CRPT implementation (see Appendix 1. Complete list of Shocks).
The first four shocks are consistent with the officially recognised taxonomy provided by UNISDR, the custodian of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. However, UN-Habitat with its specific urban focus, acknowledges Complex shocks, under which convergences of systemic failures lead to a wider supply crisis, and Societal shocks, which are primarily caused by the outbursts from social issues.
Drawing from the CRPT shocks taxonomy, the local government identified a list of plausible shocks faced by Yakutsk as the first stage to understand the current and projected impacts of these events on the city. The following sections bring together data collected from local knowledge, documentary analysis including public coverage of events, and specific studies on risk and climate change, to present on overview of these identified shocks in Yakutsk and provide a framework for prioritisation.
3.1.1. Identification of Shocks
Yakutsk, located in a remote area just south of the Arctic circle and built on permafrost, has high exposure to various types of shocks ranging from natural to complex (see Figure 7), as identified by the municipality. Presented in this section is an overview of the documented shocks identified in Yakutsk.
Figure 6. CRPT Wheel of Shocks
Floods in Yakutsk occur on a seasonal basis due to proximity of the city to the Lena River. Ice break-up on Lena in mid-May causes ice jamming in the lower parts of the river, which can significantly reduce the flow and cause upstream flooding. Due to an earlier annual ice opening on the river (in the last years, 4-10 days earlier than historically registered date), the risk of reaching maximum water levels is also increasing.9 Flood can also occur due to abnormal precipitation caused by rainstorms and earlier snowmelt. Decreasing snow cover in the region further contributes to greater climate variability.10 With major water canals within the city boundaries often waterlogged, current stormwater drainage system further increases flood risk. Anthropogenic pressure on the territory, such as deforestation, agricultural land development, buildings, road, oil and gas pipelines construction further alter the water cycle and increase flood risk.
For Yakutsk, the level of the flooding risk is high and recurrent, particularly in the suburban areas. While the city center is located on an alluvial terrace and is protected by a dyke, floods mainly affect suburban areas, located under the flood plain, such as Markha district or Tabaga village, which consist mainly of private development. In general, the north-eastern part of Yakutsk is more vulnerable to floods than the southern part. However, there are also significant disparities of one case to another with variations on a very local scale.
While waterlogging is common seasonally, there are major flood events that occurred in 2001, 2003, 2007, 2008, 2018 and required the application of regional emergency status in Yakutia. In 2001, in one of the largest episodes of
Figure 8. Flood and Wildfire Risk Map
Source: CRPP compilation based on OpenStreetMap & City Administration Data
flooding, the water level in the city rose to 9.1 meters (critical levels occur above 7.8 meters). The water was held back by a protective dam, reinforced with sandbags by volunteers; however, Darkylah area in North-East was flooded, while YaTETс power plant and residential areas nearby the river channel were under the threat of flooding. The latest major flooding event in May 2018 affected a significant portion of Tabaga village.11
Out of all regions in Russia, Yakutia has seen the most catastrophic floods in the past 16 years, although within the city limits of Yakutsk there has never been flooding critical enough to require humanitarian help. The frequency of catastrophic floods has also increased by 15% compared to the 1990s.12 In 2018, a total damage worth 1.5 billion rubles was estimated from floods in the region.13
Wild Fire
Wild fires take place on a seasonal basis due to a dry climate in summer with low precipitation levels (under 200 mm per year), exacerbated by repeated man-made accidents. The boreal forest vegetation type found in the region mainly consists of highly flammable Siberian larch trees, and is prone to fire particularly in May and June. Fires can also occur in July and August during drought periods. Wild fires are commonly caused by dry thunderstorms or are man-induced. Typically, 90% of fires within 90 kilometers of a settlement are caused by people, while outside that area, 40% of the fires are set by people and 60% are caused by lightning.14
With vast areas of forestland as part of its jurisdiction, wild fires are a significant concern for Yakutsk City District. In 2011, severe forest fires in the vicinity of the city of Yakutsk presented a high risk for near-by villages. In 2016, wild fires in the Kenkema natural reserve within the Yakutsk Gorod covered almost 23 hectares of forest. In 2017, wild fires near Yakutsk caused air pollution in the city with excess concentration of carbon monoxide at 5.2 mg/m3 (1,04 MPC).
Wild fires in Yakutia often require a declaration of regional emergency status and additional external intervention of machinery and workforce. They cause significant losses in biomass and biodiversity,air pollution, as well as high additional costs associated with the extensive use of fire fighting resources. In 2018, there were 134 forest fires registered in the region with a total area of 91 719 ha covered by fire. Direct damage from forest fires in Yakutia is estimated at 90.5 million rubles.15
Figure 7. Yakutsk wheel of identified shocks
Natural Shocks:
Floods
Extreme Meteorological Conditions
Cold waves are common in winter months when temperature goes below -45°C, typically leading to disruption in education activities for school children (for each age group, it ranges from -45°C to -50°C)16. Fog is observed on a frequent basis both during and outside the typical winter months, with an average of 18, 19 and 12 foggy days in December, January and February respectively17 and recently in the autumn and summer months, activity that is partly explained by the delayed ice formation on the river every year due to climate change. The overall trend for humidity in Yakutsk is increased growth over the past 40 years, with an average 68% humidity18. In winter, when temperatures are below -40°C, fog contributes to lower oxygen levels in the air, leading to noticeable difficulties in respiration. Fog also results in the disruption of the mobility system, such as delays in transport, airport and ferry services, as well as an increase in frequency of road accidents. In 2009, due to fog, two ferries at the entrance to Yakutsk Port crashed into each other, with one person deemed missing.
Storm
The area is exposed to a growing number of wind storms, typically taking place in spring and often combined with snow and precipitation discharges. Storm gusts can reach up to 18-19 meters/second within the urban area, and up to 24m/s within Yakutsk Gorod19. Storms cause significant damage to urban infrastructure, downing trees, traffic lights, bus stops and roofs, thus potentially increasing the risk of a sudden failure of energy supplies, urban fire and disruption of other services. In 2018, more than 50 000 people were left without electricity in some districts of Yakutsk because of a storm.
Subsidence
Permafrost thawing due to temperature changes leads to subsequent land subsidence, as the thawed ice empties space within the ice-rich ground structure. These collapsed land surfaces, known as thermokarst, distort the terrain, resulting in the eventual transformation of existing landforms and of the ecosystem. Released water contributes to a deeper permafrost thawing and facilitates emission of greenhouse gases from the carbon-rich Arctic wetlands20
Within the city limits, subsidence is common, and is said to have damaged more than 300 buildings within the past 30 years, as well as the existing road infrastructure. For instance, subsidence has been repeatedly reported along Dzerzhinsky street and has required the installation of ground cooling technologies, such as thermosyphons. Ground movements under the Babushkina street in the Promyshlenny district in 2011 led to a collapse of a 24-apartment building in 2011, and frequent collapses of inter-building area (e.g. collapse of a parking lot in 2016)21 The stability of some key buildings, such as city hospitals, often needs to be reinforced by ground cooling technologies. Additionally, thermokarst is altering land use more broadly: land previously used for agriculture or pasture becomes unusable. Subsidence also presents risks in new private development areas, although the government warns about the dangers of building in certain areas due to subsidence, such warnings tend to be ignored.
Technological Shocks:
Failure of Infrastructure and Services:
In Yakutsk, there is a high number of buildings (about 1.500 wooden apartment houses) in a dilapidated state that are not recognized to have an emergency status22. Most of the infrastructure is worn out due to the severe climate and longer exposure periods, which substantially increases the risk of breakdown. For instance, an incident involving the Yakutsk power plant in October 2017 left the city and the near-by villages without energy. Furthermore, buildings and infrastructure (e.g. roads) are often constructed without adequate consideration of permafrost conditions, which accelerates their deformation. Heat pipeline ruptures are also common and contribute to faster permafrost thawing around buildings, further land surface collapse, and building deformation.
Urban Fire
Around 40% of all urban fire in Yakutsk occurs in the residential sector, mainly involving private housing, which consists typically of wooden houses. Primary causes of urban fires include careless handling of fire and short circuits, and private wooden houses without central heating that rely on traditional heating systems (i.e. stoves)23. In 2018, a total of 155 fires in the residential sector were registered, resulting in the death of 24 people. Those predominantly affected in urban fire are vulnerable groups, such as children and elderly.
Complex Shocks:
Failure of Supplies
The city relies heavily on annual, imported life-supporting goods supplies delivered to the city via rail and waterways as part of a federal programme called “Severnyi Zavoz”. Goods are typically sent by rail to Irkutsk region and are then transported down the river to reach various settlements of Yakutia due to the absence of rail links and road access to Yakutsk. Major disruption occurred in 2013 caused by low water levels in rivers and resulting shorter navigation periods, which could not assure the timely delivery of the supply to the region. This caused panic in the city about possible future product deficits and provoked bulk-buying, which eventually led to a surge in prices. Given the circumstances, goods were delivered by air transport and later by winter ice roads, resulting in costs estimated at 900 million rubles24
Biological Shocks:
Infectious Diseases
Annual flu outbreaks affect a major part of the population of the city due to severe low temperatures. In 2018, flu outbreak led to a significant disruption in school activities, with more than 20% of school-aged children affected. Tuberculosis and HIV, while historically being socially-significant diseases (SSD) in Yakutsk, are currently on a decline due to strong prevention measures by governmental institutes dedicated to combating these diseases. Regarding Tuberculosis there are annual prevention checks covering about 85% of the population, resulting in decreased number of new cases with 568 newly registered cases in 2016. Tuberculosis is expected to be eradicated by 2030, an official deadline set by the federal government of Russia and 5 years ahead of the global deadline set by the WHO. However, other diseases, such as gonorrhea, are still prevalent.
Source: CRPP compilation based on NASA Earth Obseratory and city administration data
3.1.2. Preliminary Prioritisation of Shocks
In order to build resilience from shocks in Yakutsk, a framework for prioritisation has been adopted based on the frequency and impact of each identified shock (presented in the previous section), centred around the constituents of the urban system – people, assets and processes – affected by these adverse events. Based on existing data, this section displays impacts of each shock identified regarding:
People such as population injured, affected or displaced;
Assets encompassing both built and natural; and,
Processes that have implications on the city’s economy and functions, and people’s well-being and livelihoods.
In addition, this section presents how climate change trends have the potential to exacerbate the frequency and impacts of the shocks identified, which is particularly important for Yakutsk as it is considered a high risk-prone location to climate change effects, with the rate of climate change in the Arctic region about 2 times higher than the global average25. This section concludes by organising these shocks into zones that link to priority actions based on a qualitative analysis of all the aforementioned information.
These necessary information are organised in a chart, which presents information on each shock identified based on its classification systems in the CRPT Table of Shocks (see Appendix 1), including other shocks triggered by the occurrence of this shock. It then proceeds to describe the frequency of its occurrences, its impacts on people, assets and processes, and projections on how climate change trends can affect the shock’s recurrence or impacts.
Extreme Meteorological Conditions
(Cold Wave & Fog)
Group: Natural Type: Extreme Meteorological Conditions Sub-type: Cold Wave, Fog
Triggered Secondary Shocks: Biological shocks, Public services breakdown, Failure of supplies
Triggered Secondary Shocks: Basic infrastructure breakdown, Public services breakdown
Cold waves are common in winter months when temperature goes below -45°C.
Fog formation typically occurs in winter months, however in the last years it has been affecting the city occasionally in summer and autumn as well.
COLD WAVE:
Disruption in school activities. In 2018, a total of 26 cold-wave caused school day-offs was registered.
FOG:
Disruption in transport services. In 2018: Around 13 flights were delayed and ferries had to pause their service.
Persistent cold weather episodes (cold waves) are expected to become less frequent, shorter and slightly less severe in the target area by 2100 even under the moderate climate change scenario (RCP4.5). On the other hand, fogs have lately been occurring also in autumn and summer months, partly explained by the delayed ice formation on the river every year due to climate change.
While occurring only occasionally, strong winds are getting more common in Yakutsk.
Significant damage to urban infrastructure.
Disruption of services. In 2018: Storm left than 50 000 people were left without electricity in some parts of Yakutsk.
The intensified warming of local climate by the end of the 21st century, is likely to maintain or to exacerbate the current exposure of Yakutsk to storms.
Shocks Frequency of Occurences
Flood
Group: Natural Type: Flood
Sub-type: Fluvial Flooding, Pluvial/ Snowmelt Flooding, Ice Jam Flooding
Triggered Secondary Shocks: Water body degradation, Sudden water pollution, Inland erosion
Area is exposed to periodic flooding, with major flood events registered in:
• 2001
• 2003
• 2007
• 2008
• 2018, mainly induced by Ice Jamming in the lower parts of the Lena River in spring.
Wild Fire
Group: Natural Type: Wild Fire
Sub-type: Forest Fire
Triggered Secondary Shocks: Urban fire, Sudden air pollution, Biodiversity loss
Occurs over Yakutia on a seasonal basis in late May-July. In 2018, a total of 134 forest fires were registered in Yakutia.
Impacts on People, Assets, and Processes
Flooded residents in suburban villages. In May 2018, in Tabaga village within Yakutsk Gorod, 67 residents were flooded, including 14 children.
Damage to urban infrastructure and housing, particularly detached houses in the suburban villages.
Disruption in mobility system and education due to waterlogging.
High economic costs. In 2018, a total damage worth 1.5 billion rubles was estimated from floods in Yakutia region26
Air pollution increasing health risks. In 2017: wild fires in the near-by areas of Yakutsk caused air pollution in the city with excess concentration of carbon monoxide at 5.2 mg/m3 (1,04 MPC).
High economic costs. In 2018: direct damage from forest fires in Yakutia was estimated at 90.5 million rubles27
Climate Change Trends*
In response to the future projected changes in air temperature and precipitation, Yakutsk and its surroundings are likely to remain prone to floods, due to the proximity of Lena River. This risk is expected to be high especially in spring due to a likely earlier snowmelt, but also to the transport of ice banks by the river.
Subsidence (from Permafrost Thawing)
Group: Natural Type: Mass Movement Sub-type: Subsidence
Triggered Secondary Shocks: Built Infrastructure Breakdown, Urban Fire
Within the city limits, subsidence is common, affecting existing infrastructure and reported to have significantly damaged more than 300 buildings within the past 30 years.
Casualties from damage to buildings and infrastructure. In 2011: About 72 people were affected when a 3-storey housing block on Babushkina street collapsed due to ground movements
Currently, around 30% of buildings in Yakutsk have damages from ground movements.28 In the future, 70% of the infrastructure could need to be rebuilt.
Alteration of landscape and land use purposes.
Projected seasonal warming is expected to have significant implications on the future stability of permafrost due to changes in the freezing regimes (intensification of freezing-thawing cycles and the expected earlier snowmelts (followed by runoffs) in response to the winter and spring warmth). The area of Yakutsk City and its surroundings is likely to experience a far faster thawing of permafrost than expected.
An increasing exposure to drought and wild fires is expected due to projected signals of lengthening of summer dry intervals and a growing frequency and persistence of hot-weather episodes. More prolonged dry days are expected in summer (up to 14% in near-future and 6% in the far-future).
Failure of Infrastructure & Services
Group: Technological Type: Failure of Infrastructure and Services
Sub-type: Built Infrastructure Breakdown, Basic Infrastructure Breakdown
Triggered Secondary Shocks: Urban fire, Failure of supplies
Apart from common ruptures of heating pipes and damages in road infrastructure, there have been few other recorded instances of actual failure. However, there is continuous risk of occurrence due to the dilapidated state and lack of strict regulations for building on permafrost of many of the infrastructure in Yakutsk.
Disruption of essential services. In January 2013, rupture of heating pipes in Stroitel’ny district put 3,000 people at risk of being left without heating under -50°C. In 2017, an incident involving Yakutsk power plant left Yakutsk and near-by areas without energy supply 29. A total of 476 000 people were affected.
Permafrost thawing leads to land surface collapses and thermokarst formations, putting existing infrastructure systems and buildings at risk.
Urban Fire
Group: Technological
Type: Non-Industrial Incident
Sub-type: Urban Fire
Triggered Secondary Shocks: Built infrastructure breakdown, Public services breakdown
Fires frequently occur every year, with 388 fires registered the territory of Yakutsk and its suburbs just in 2016.
A total of 24 people died in fires in Yakutsk, predominantly these are children and elderly people. In 2016, 155 fires occurred in the residential sector.
The projected increased occurrence and spread of wild fire as well as failures in buildings and infrastructure from permafrost thawing presents a potential source for urban fires.
Rare occurrence but considered a continuous concern. A major disruption occurred in 2013 caused by shallowing water levels in rivers and shorter navigation periods.
Caused panic in the city about possible future product deficit and provoked bulkbuying, which led to a surge in prices.
Preliminary cost of sending the goods in the emergency mode by air transport and later by winter ice roads was estimated at 900 million rubles.
The reliance of Yakutsk on annual life-supporting goods supplies from other regions makes it sensitive to changes in the water course and failure of infrastructure. Increasing drought may also potentially affect local production of food.
While historical key socially significant diseases are currently declining, other diseases are still prevalent.
In particular, flu outbreaks affect a large portion of the population every year on a seasonal basis due to severe low temperature weather.
In 2018, at least 293,432 cases of flu were registered in Yakutia and about 20% of school-age children in Yakutsk were affected.
Disruption in schools and education services. High pressure on health services (hospitals and clinics).
While temperature increase might not significantly affect the evolution of current diseases, ecological changes and thawing permafrost might uncover unknown diseases, or prolong transmission periods, possibly leading to their future outbreaks.
A comparative assessment was based on individual events that have taken place in Yakutsk, considering the following criteria as previously explained:
• Frequency of occurrence on different areas of the city
• Magnitude of impacts on people, assets and processes
• Projections of climate change trends in Yakutsk and how trends may worsen the impacts of identified shocks
The matrix below (see Figure 8) reflects this assessment by placing the shock in a particular zone. While all shocks should be considered in the resilience-building process, each zone corresponds to a specific level of focus and type of action that city must address with.
• ZONE 1: Low Frequency-Low Impact (LF-LI)
• ZONE 2: High Frequency-Low Impact (HF-LI)
• ZONE 3: Low Frequency-High Impact (LF-HF)
• ZONE 4: High Frequency-High Impact (HF-HI)
Shocks are considered high frequency if their events occur several times in the recent past or with seasonal regularity, and high impact if an individual shock event has had considerable negative effects on people, assets and processes, often in form of lives lost, assets damaged, major economic losses, and/or disruptions to essential services. Arrows indicating potential movement of the shock to higher/lower frequency and/or higher/lower impact (of individual shock events) due to climate change trends are also reflected.
As seen in the matrix, floods and wild fire, two “natural” shocks that are already considered main issues by the municipality, remain within the critical zone (Zone 4) joined by subsidence due to permafrost thawing, which due to its links to other technological and environmental shocks, have significant cascading effects. However, shocks among all zones are expected to increase in frequency of occurrences and/or impacts due to climate change effects, whether directly - such as floods, wild life, and subsidence from permafrost thawing – or indirectly.
Indirect consequences of climate change include the destruction of services and infrastructure, utility systems, public spaces, public and private buildings, as well as failures of supplies. The effects are also enhanced by the challenges faced by Yakutsk such as extreme climate conditions, geographical remoteness of the city and its periodic isolation from the major transport networks. Moreover, the city’s inhabitants are largely dependent on an annual delivery from other regions, which is sensitive to climatic risks (e.g. low water levels in rivers) due to environmental implications. Thus, together with the trajectory of the city’s development, climate change brings about more factors that will alter the historical patterns of shocks.
Figure 8. Shocks Prioritisation Matrix
Based on initial discussions with the municipality regarding the existing risk reduction measures, the ZONE 4 shocks of floods and wild fires have an existing system and protocols in place to prepare for and respond to these events, albeit lacking in financing mechanisms (refer to chapter 4.1. Risk Reduction Data Assessment). While these measures are updated annually, whether this system considers the changes brought about by projected climate trends, its interdependencies with other shocks and it cascading impacts still remains a question. In general, more information is still needed to determine the state of risk reduction in Yakutsk, specifically on how these are applied to those shocks in other zones that are presently considered less severe on its own.
3.1.3. Initial Conclusions
By assessing the plausible shocks of Yakutsk based on occurrences, impacts and climate trends, CRPP is able to categorise them into actionable zones that would be used further the resilience diagnosis and action recommendations. This chapter has primarily corroborated the initial identification of prevalent shocks by the city, while adding information on how climate change is projected to affect these shocks through scientific studies. While Yakutsk already faces significant historical shocks, almost all of these identified shocks are projected to increase in severity due to climate change effects, marking Yakutsk as a high risk-prone location. The heightened risk is associated in large part with an increasing frequency and impact of shock events, particularly flood, wildfire, and subsidence from permafrost thawing, which are considered the most critical shocks for Yakutsk.
However, before the analysis on shocks can be completed, it is imperative for the municipal Focal Points in coordination with UN-Habitat CRPP to complete two further steps:
1. Gather more information on the existing Risk Reduction Measures for each of the shocks identified in Yakutsk from interviews with the officer/s-in-charge in the local level to derive the Risk Reduction Key Findings 2. Co-production of the Preliminary Prioritisation of Shocks and Risk Reduction Key Findings by the municipality and other relevant stakeholders
It is also important to highlight that the interplay between shocks directly impacts the stresses that the city is undergoing and challenges it faces. Conversely, vulnerabilities and weaknesses present in the urban system due to pressures posed by stresses aggravate the impacts of shocks. These stresses are further discussed in the following sub-chapter.
3.2. Preliminary Stresses Analysis
In addition to risks from a variety of shocks described in the pervious section, cities are also subject to stresses. These are chronic and ongoing dynamic pressures, which have cumulative impacts that undermine the urban system, rendering it fragile and vulnerable. Stressors are the negative factors, processes or activities that lead to the generation of stresses.
The SDGs and NUA are frameworks targeting positive development that should be met at the local level. The CRPT recognises that negative deviations from the targets included in these frameworks undermine resilient and sustainable urban development. Using these frameworks as a basis, a generic list of stresses linked to the negative deviations of each SDG was defined by the CRPT. Using the NUA as the urban lens for looking into the SDGs, it further links the stresses to CRPT indicators using a number of stressors highlighted throughout the NUA. This comprehensive list (see Appendix 2) serves as a starting selection, and is open to additions or modifications based on local context.
From the generic (open) stresses list, the CRPT process identifies the city’s most prevalent stresses/stressors through a combination of a) local knowledge, b) indicator assessment, and c) expert reading. Local knowledge provides a primarily context-centric identification of prevalent stresses, while the assessment of negative results of indicators in order to determine the existence of stressors provides a complementary data-driven approach. To ensure a comprehensive understanding of the existing stresses in the system, CRPP’s experts also conduct qualitative reading of the data collected, drawing on an extensive review of theoretical and empirical research by both academia and practitioner works in the field, as another layer of analysis. This would nuance the identified stresses/stressors or detect further stresses/stressors not previously identified. Through these three intersecting modes of identification, CRPT is able to derive which stresses and underlying stressors are most prevalent and relevant to address, and from its links to various indicators, present the Current Scenario of the city.
3.2.1. Preliminary Identification of Stresses
The section below presents the initially identified stresses and stressors of Yakutsk, before proceeding to describe how these are currently affecting the city. These stresses/stressors were determined primarily by representatives of the local government and other relevant stakeholders during the workshop in July 2017, and have since been categorised according to the SDG framework and elaborated by UN-Habitat project personnel into a preliminary list of stresses/stressors, as seen in the table below.
Permafrost
Inadequate
Table 4. Initial list of Yakutsk Stresses and Stressors
Each stress/stressor undergoes an initial linking to the supporting indicators covering the different urban elements in SET4 data collection to guide the analysis and highlight which of the indicators should be prioritised. This linking followed a set of criteria to categorise the strength of the relationship.
Criteria for linking stressors with supporting indicators
Indirectly related - may be a driver/impact
Directly related - is a driver/impact
Directly detects the presence of a stressor
Supporting indicators where data has been collected are assessed based on benchmarks formulated from international standards, various tools and frameworks on sustainable and resilient cities, and other unique measures in collaboration with practitioners in relevant fields.
Criteria for linking stressors with supporting indicators
Positive performance - potential capacity
Somewhat positive performance
Somewhat negative performance
Negative performance - potential vulnerability
Data provided cannot be benchmarked and is assssed based on a qualitative reading
Data is not available or accessible for the supporting indicator
Data is still pending collective process
The diagram below represents the Current Scenario of Yakutsk based on the performance of the urban system through presenting the supporting indicators that have a strong or identifying connection to the stresses/stressors identified in the preliminary list. Indicators with available data have also been benchmarked and colour-coded accordingly.
Presented next are brief descriptions of each preliminary identified stress, their associated stressors and the indicators linked to each stress/stressor, which will support in determining the prevalence of the stress through evidence and which factors can address the issue, for the succeeding steps of the implementation process.
Unregulated Urban Growth:
Yakutsk is experiencing high population growth due to increasing urbanisation and migration. While not intrinsically a negative phenomenon, in the urban area of Yakutsk where most of the population is concentrated, this increasing density is furthering the anthropogenic pressure on the delicate environment. This has led to a pattern of unregulated urban growth exacerbated by the shortage of space for the development of the economy and infrastructure of the city 30 This growth is typified by the expansion of Yakutsk’s urban footprint (estimated at 12% from 2015 to 2017) and the intensification of development in sensitive areas of the city, such as along the banks of Lena River or into the other land uses such as the forestlands, exposing the city to further risks. A strong intra-annual increase of development activity during the period from April to October can also be observed leading to a specific seasonality of the stress. 31
The provision of housing lots, in particular, remains a significant issue as there is a large backlog in the provision of these lots to eligible families with a steadily estimated increase.32 This translates into a steady expansion of the urban area, while more sustainable planned solutions of developing the suburban villages and villages across Lena river to become tenable areas for settlement for the growing population are still in development 33
Stressors:
Urban sprawl
Social Inequity
The population of Yakutsk, and Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) in general, suffers from high costs and low purchasing power compared to other regions of Russia linked to severe natural-climatic discomfort. However, this factor is not adequately captured by the Subsistence Minimum, leading to insufficient subsidies by the Federal government and underestimation of other social guarantees, such as minimum wage, benefits and pensions, all of which is reflected in the decrease in quality of life34 On a more local scale, existing social stratification and the recent population dynamics of high urbanization and migration rates have been reported to increased social and ethnic tensions in the city, particularly towards international migrants, with a few instances of unrest that disrupted economic processes in the city taking place within recent years.
Stressors:
Ecosystem Degradation
As Yakutsk’s ecosystem is already undergoing vast changes due to climate change, it is also threatened by anthropogenic pressures, which are only expected to increase as Yakutsk continues to develop. Observed events, pollution from human activities and for-profit pressure on the natural environment lead to compounding ecosystem degradation and wildlife loss. There exists significant levels of air, soil and water contamination (e.g. water bodies in Lena river basin are considered “very contaminated”), due in particular to industrial and agricultural activities, which are concentrated in the territory of Yakutsk. This exerts a high pressure to the environment, expelling high levels of emissions (effluents, thermal, acoustic, etc.). Some prime polluters include excessive vehicular emissions and improper waste disposal.
Furthermore, the quality of permafrost continues to be affected by the negative processes and structures built above it 35 particularly since Arctic infrastructure in the permafrost zone is often built without considering possible climate warming36 Methods, materials and design specifically of roads and buildings contribute to the deterioration of permafrost by hindering the refreezing of its active layer. For example, a large percentage of wooden buildings within Yakutsk city are built directly on permafrost. While buildings sustained on piles have a cooling air cushion to ensure no ground heating below them, frequent water pipeline ruptures in the inter-building area further contribute to faster and deeper permafrost thawing within the city.
Stressors:
3.2.2. Initial Conclusions
The stresses/stressors identified by the municipality and described in this chapter are related primarily to issues on territorial development, highlighting the negative consequences of increasing anthropogenic pressures, particularly in certain areas of Yakutsk, as well as the gaps in the current development pattern of the city. However, to ensure a greater transversal perspective of the stresses faced by the city, the following steps still need to be undertaken:
1. Gather more data (see Chapter 4.3 Urban Element Data Assessment).
2. Determine additional stresses/stressors identified by the CRPT by taking note of negative performance indicators (orange/red), particularly from the Elements/Components that are not strongly linked to any stress/stressor. This may imply that there are some aspects of the urban system that we may not be currently considering in the preliminary identification.
3. Refinement of stresses/stressors and their linked indicators after sufficient data has been collected, benchmarked and qualitatively analysed by CRPP experts.
4. Preliminary Prioritisation of Stresses through providing each stressor a collective value based on the linked indicators (benchmarks and strength of connection), in order to determine the relevance of acting on a particular stressor and ranked accordingly.
5. Final co-production of Identification of Stresses and the Preliminary Prioritisation of Stresses, as well as potential un-identified links with Shocks prioritised, as well as first inception of Lines of Actions for Resilience by the municipality and other relevant stakeholders.
3.3. Next Steps
Through the previous sub-chapters, the CRPT exposes the prevalent shocks and stresses that Yakutsk faces and the understanding of which are essential for designing actions seeking to build the city’s resilience. However, this remains a preliminary analysis due to current limitations in the data collection process, and can only be finalized after the following steps:
• Completion of Data Collection (see 4. Data Assessment), specifically:
• For Shocks: Risk Reduction Measures
• For Stresses: Urban Elements
• Updated Preliminary Shocks Analysis with Risk Reduction Measures
• Updated Preliminary Stresses Analysis with tool-derived stresses/stressors
• Linkage between Shocks and Stresses Analysis
• Co-production of the Risk Analysis by the municipality
Upon co-production of the Risk Analysis, interactions among risks and the components of the urban system can be drawn to determine the Lines of Action, which in turn would determine the focus of the recommended actions. Lines of Action are where the majority of risks to the urban system converge and concentrate, but are also where opportunities for maximizing the outcome of actions for resilience lie. These should take into consideration how shocks and stresses increase exposure and vulnerability to risk, and how these together with the enduring and emerging challenges of Yakutsk impact the urban system.
increases vulnerability, intensifying impact
Challenges
Shocks
Stresses
Data Assessment
4. Data Assessment
This chapter provides a high level overview of the data needed for the analytical and diagnostic processes of the CRPT. Each sub-chapter presents a specific type of data collected:
• City ID Data Assessment corresponds to SET 1 data collection, focused contextual information about the city (see Chapter 2. Urban Context).
• Risk Reduction Data Assessment acts as survey for determining the existence of risk reduction measures for each identified shock (see Chapter 3.1. Shocks).
• Urban Element Data Assessment corresponds to SET4 data collection, which relies on indicators and benchmarks to determine the city’s urban performance and inform on the stresses (see Chapter 3.2. Stresses).
If data is already available, initial lists of relevant stakeholders, as well as the policies, plans and initiatives related to each component are also provided, leading to the future analysis of Local Government and Stakeholders, and formulation of the Trend Scenario as described in the CRPT Methodology.
By providing an overview of all the pieces of data required for a robust and transversal analysis, this chapter presents a realistic picture of the status of the CRPT implementation in the city and informs on how best to proceed.
Risk Reduction Data Assessment
Risk Reduction Measures are mechanisms existing in the city that aims to systematically address identified risks, manage residual effects, and adequately respond and recover from shock events.
Data Completion Assessment:
City ID Assessment
Data Completion Assessment:
City ID provides an overview of Yakutsk by gathering contextual information on various topics that give the city its unique identity, attune analysis to the its realities, and highlight the hazards and challenges faced by the city.
of the “Executive directorate on the elimination of the
of spring floods and
of restoring works in
of Sakha (Yakutia)”
The
Stakeholder
Stakeholder
Ministry of Economics of Russia
Ministry of Economics of Russia
Office of the Federal Register of Republic of Yakha (Yakutia)
Office of the Federal Register of Republic of Yakha (Yakutia)
Municipal program “Provision of housing for the population of the urban district “city of Yakutsk” for 2018-2022”
Cadastral chamber of Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)
Cadastral chamber of Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)
Department of forest matters of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)
Department of forest matters of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)
Municipal program “Complex transport infrastructure development of the urban district “city of Yakutsk” for 2017-20132”
Environmental Prosecutor’s Office
Environmental Prosecutor’s Office
Ministry of Property and Land Relations of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)
Ministry of Property and Land Relations of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)
Municipal program “Development of property and land complex of the urban district “city of Yakutsk” for 2018-2022”
Department of Cultural Heritage Protection of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)
Department of Cultural Heritage Protection of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)
Municipal program “Formation of the modern urban environment in the territory of the urban district “city of Yakutsk” for 2018-2022
MKU Agency of Land Relations
MKU Agency of Land Relations
“Rosimushestvo”, Upravleniye Federal’nogo Agentstva Po Upravleniyu Gosudarstvennym Imushchestvom in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)
“Rosimushestvo”, Upravleniye Federal’nogo Agentstva Po Upravleniyu Gosudarstvennym
Stakeholder
PAO Yakutaskenergo
AO Sakhaenegro
AO Teploenegroservis
Yakutskaya GRES
Yakutskaya TETC
Energosbyt
MUP Teploenergiva
AO NK Tuimaada-Neft
AO Tujmaadaneftegaz
OOO Anabarneftegaz
OOO Chochimbal
AO Sakhatransneftegaz
AO Respublikanskaya
Investicionnaya Kompaniya
Razrez Kangalassky
MUP Jilkomservis
OAO Yakutskekoseti
Ministry of Housing and Utilities
Sector of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)
AO Teploenergia
AO Yatek
AO Vodokanal
Government Development Plan
Terri orial scheme of waste management of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) for 2017-2 026 and the forecast period until the year of 2036
Municipal program “Integrated development of municipal infrastructure systems of the city district” the city of Yakutsk “for 20142032”
Decree of the Governments of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) of 27 May 2010 № 254 “On the approval of the concept of development of the water economic complex of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) until 2020”
Municipal program “Maintenance of functioning and development of housing and communal services of city district “city of Yakutsk” in 2018-2022”
Investment program of PAO “Yakutskenergo” for the period 2019-2023
Investment program of AO “Vodokanal” for 2018-2023
Municipal program “Culture in the territory of the urban district “city of Yakutsk” for 2018-2020”
Target department program
“Public and external relations, information policy of the “city of Yakutsk” in 2018-2022”
Target department program
“Ensuring the functioning of suburban areas of Yakutsk in 2018-2022”
Target department program
“Ensuring the functioning of city districts of the “city of Yakutsk” in 2018-2022”
Stakeholder
Ministry of Economics of Russia
Office of the Federal Register of Republic of Yakha (Yakutia)
Cadastral chamber of Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)
Department of forest matters of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)
Environmental Prosecutor’s Office
Ministry of Property and Land Relations of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)
Department of Cultural Heritage Protection of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)
MKU Agency of Land Relations
“Rosimushestvo”, Upravleniye Federal’nogo Agentstva Po Upravleniyu Gosudarstvennym Imushchestvom in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)
Municipal program “Provision of housing for the population of the urban district “city of Yakutsk” for 2018-2022”
Municipal program “Integrated development of social infrastructure of the urban district “city of Yakutsk” in 2017-2032”
Municipal program “Complex transport infrastructure development of the urban district “city of Yakutsk” for 2017-20132”
Municipal program “Prevention of crimes on the territory of the urban district “city of in 2018-2022”
Municipal program “Development of property and land complex of the urban district “city of Yakutsk” for 2018-2022”
Municipal program “Development of education in the urban district “city of Yakutsk” in 2018-2022”
Municipal
Municipal program “Formation of the modern urban environment in the territory of the urban district “city of Yakutsk” for 2018-2022
“city
Target department program “Human resource development. Improvement of labor conditions and safety in the “city of Yakutsk” in 2018-2022”
4.4. Next Steps
While an essential aspect of the CRPT process, the status of ongoing data collection for the Yakutsk city implementation still remains in its beginning stages. For components that have reached substantial completion, the quality of the data collected is high and informative. However, barriers in the form of data availability exists in some components, and in many cases, the data collection itself is still pending. Challenges for data collection include:
• Time and resources spent in translation of documents
• Coordination with different departments
• Unavailability of spatial information and need for GIS data
• Limited availability of data at the local level (regional data is often more common)
The table below consolidates and describes the progress on each SET.
To ensure the successful completion of the data collection process, and the CRPT process in general, the following steps should be taken:
1. Complete and submit first attempt at data collection for all CRPT Urban Elements by the municipality Focal Points
2. Perform progressive data assessment by UN-Habitat CRPP to progressively perform data assessment to establish the completion and quality of data, and advice on how to proceed
3. Complete Risk Reduction Measures to be accomplished by joint interview with the officer-in-charge, supplemented by documentary analysis
4. Complete Local Government decision-making and decision-implementation questionnaires to be accomplished through interview with relevant official
5. Conduct series of workshops and interviews with different departments to supplement and validate collected data
By completing the data collection process, not only would the analysis and diagnosis of the city’s resilience from the CRPT implementation be robust and transversal, Yakutsk would also have an extensive yet consolidated database for monitoring progress and future resilience work.
Decision-making Questionnaire
Decision-implementation Questionnaire
Stakeholder Mapping
Inventory - Policies, Plans and Initiatives
Table 5. City Progress Reporting
Going Forward
5. Going Forward
While engagement with Yakutsk began in 2016, the official implementation of the CRPT in Yakutsk has only now reached its mid-point. Throughout this engagement, the positive relationship between UN-Habitat and the City Administration of Yakutsk has borne fruitful early results in the form of various advocacy and capacity-building activities, and a preliminary analysis, as presented in this report.
Steps on how to proceed to finalise the preliminary risk analysis and how to move forward with the data collection has been described in detail in the preceding chapters. Once this has been accomplished, the essential stage of determining Lines of Action can be undertaken.
The determination of Lines of Action is based on a transversal qualitative analysis that brings together diagnosis outcomes of both the current scenario (current performance of the urban system, its underlying compositions and interrelationships, and encountered risks) and the trend scenario (projection of the future state of the urban system if current trajectories of risks and existing interventions are maintained). In particular, Lines of Action take stock of the data gathered to highlight themes under which the most vulnerable elements of the urban system are addressed. Vulnerable elements of the urban system are those that are / will be most likely exposed to the effects of shocks while undergoing chronic pressures posed by combinations of stresses, including those driven by inadequate statuary planning and urban policy.
Apart from understanding how risks interplay in the system, determining these Lines of Action, and eventual design of recommended actions that are feasible and implementable, requires an understanding as well as active involvement of the local government and other relevant stakeholders of the city. Thus, with the support of the municipality, it is imperative to delve deeper into the local government decision-making and decision-implementation processes, and to map the relevant actors captured by the Local Government and Stakeholders Analysis as described in the CRPT Methodology.
The table below establishes milestones for the period following this mid-term technical report until the submission of the final report. Each milestone necessitates a series of activities, which would be agreed upon with the City Administration of Yakutsk, such as technical meetings and workshops.
An essential component to this next period would be to establish a Resilience Board composed of a multi-sectoral group of political representatives and technical specialists. Tentative attempts to create this Board have been made previously, but now that initial findings have been determined, it is the ideal time to reignite this Board in order to supplement and validate findings from CRPT, and be the keepers of the outputs of the CRPT resilience process in the city.
This will ensure that the outcomes of this partnership would be integrated in the different sectors of the municipality and continue to be of use to the city. Through following these steps, the objective of this project – to make Yakutsk more inclusive, sustainable, and resilient through strengthening the knowledge and capacity of the local government and develop targeted actions for building resilience – would be met and built upon in the future.
Table 6. Future Milestones of CRPT Implementation in Yakutsk
