May 2025
Kaiser Partner Privatbank achieves strong annual result in 2024 and further expands its position as a private trust bank
Strong annual result 2024
Kaiser Partner Privatbank
achieves strong annual result in 2024 and further expands its position as a private trust bank
Kaiser Partner Privatbank had a very successful financial year in 2024: With a profit of CHF 9.1 million (+60.9 %), revenues of CHF 53.5 million (+48.9 %) and a net inflow of new funds of CHF 1.81 billion, the Liechtenstein private bank grew significantly despite a challenging market environment.
“2024 was a year that challenged us – but also inspired us. Our bank grew profitably and in a future-oriented way –in assets under management, in earnings and in overall performance,” explains Fritz Kaiser, Chairman of the Board of Directors. ”With the integration of our wealth advisory and trust services, we have realized a central element of our vision: Kaiser Partner Private Trust Bank. It stands for comprehensive support for entrepreneurial families and wealthy individuals – with foresight, an international network and clear values.”
CEO Christian Reich adds: “The positive figures reflect the consistent implementation of our long-term strategy. With our Kaiser Partner Wealth Table methodology, we secure and manage wealth responsibly and across generations – far beyond traditional private banking. We are particularly proud of the achievements of our young, dedicated team. Our culture of trust, personal responsibility and shared values is the basis for sustainable success.”
Kaiser Partner Privatbank will continue to focus on targeted innovation, always based on a clear set of values. This includes digital infrastructures, artificial intelligence and new investment solutions. The protection and security of our clients and the long-term preservation and development of their assets are our top priorities.
With its value-oriented approach and multi-award-winning service quality – including the gold medal in the latest Fuchs-Richter Report – the bank is strengthening its role as a forward-looking private trust bank.
The astonishingly large size of the punitive tariffs announced by Donald Trump in early April was a shock in itself.
Chart of the Month
In a Nutshell
Our view on the markets
Dip in growth (and forecasts) with unknown half-life
The astonishingly large size of the punitive tariffs announced by Donald Trump in early April was a shock in itself, but then the chaos in the weeks thereafter, which included constantly changing tariff rates, temporary suspensions and an array of exemptions, became too much even for many economists. While Goldman Sachs corrected its recession forecast for the USA twice in a very short space of time, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) had to revise its spring report several times in rapid succession in view of the extremely fluid situation. The half-life of any projections and the duration of the impending economic downturn are eminently incalculable because uncertainty looks set to stay very elevated for the time being.
Where is the Trump put?
April 2 – the date of “Liberation Day” – was picked deliberately by Donald Trump’s advisors. If it had come one day earlier, market observers and investors probably would have suspected that an April Fool’s joke was being played on them. The large reciprocal and retaliatory tariffs indeed caught even diehard MAGA fans on the wrong foot. In any case, they dealt a shock to equity markets around the world, causing steep share-price
plunges. The US president reacted nonchalantly for a long time to the tumbling stock prices. The strike level of the Trump put evidently is surprisingly low and is likely to continue to keep market participants busy.
Sleepless on the stock exchange
In the present day and age, the next trade is just a quick click on your smartphone away. But not only is that immediate availability enticing, there are also hardly any time restraints on stock-market transactions anymore. Round-the-clock trading is enjoying increasing popularity among individual private investors and reflects the consumption culture of a digitalized society. However, the freedom of nonstop trading has risks and side effects. Whoever favors investing for the long term over short-term speculation should preferably refrain from placing spur-of-the-moment buy orders during sleepless nights and should instead drink a cup of warm milk.
Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” hasn’t liberated US consumers and businesses from anything thus far except from having any certainty or security about their future economic situation. By means of a simple and factually questionable calculation formula for levying reciprocal tariffs, the US president has created trouble not just for friend and foe alike, but above all for his country’s own economy and has it headed toward a near-certain (technical) recession unless a quick course correction is made. The 90-day suspension of reciprocal tariffs against most of America’s trading partners hardly alters the massive increase in the average effective tariff rate on imports to the USA, particularly since the spiral of escalation with China has been ratcheted to the max. Officials in the White House by now have recognized that the harm already inflicted is huge, the tariffs regime against China is unsustainable, and a de-escalation is urgently necessary. Backpedaling seems difficult, though, in no small part because China may actually have the upper hand. One hope remains: if anyone is capable of selling the last few weeks as a victory to his voter base, that person is Donald Trump.
Macro Radar
Taking the pulse of economic activity
Dip in growth (and forecasts) with unknown half-life
The astonishingly large size of the punitive tariffs announced by Donald Trump on April 2 (“Liberation Day”) was already a shock in itself, but then the chaos in the weeks thereafter, which included constantly changing tariff rates, temporary suspensions and an array of exemptions, became a bit too much even for the best and brightest of economists. While Goldman Sachs raised its recession forecast for the USA and then swiftly retracted it, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) evidently had to revise its spring report several times in rapid succession in view of the extremely fluid situation. The economic activity projections that have now been issued (based on the data available as April 14) have markedly worsened compared to January and envisage a substantial slowdown in global economic growth for this year (2024: +3.3%; 2025: +2.8%). However, the half-life of any forecasts and the duration of the impending economic downturn are eminently incalculable because uncertainty looks set to stay very elevated for the time being.
China is fighting back and has the upper hand China in recent weeks has shown itself to be a worthy, well-prepared, and perhaps ultimately a superior opponent in the slugfest with the USA. China not only imposed counter-tariffs to the tune of 125%, but also reciprocated Trump’s “art of the deal” tactics by implementing a range of countermeasures such as placing restrictions on exports of critical minerals, slapping sanctions on US companies, and halting imports (Boeing aircraft, liquified natural gas), to name a few. While the US president will soon have to present the fruits of his deeds to the public with an eye toward the midterm elections in 2026, President Xi in contrast will likely have more endurance (and greater pain tolerance).
Deflationary tendencies – sooner or later
The new tariffs regime appears destined to initially drive up inflation in the USA. Partially empty store shelves are also to be expected; many products from China are particularly likely to be missing because they cannot be substituted on short notice. A quick and above all credible change of course by the Trump administration would be needed in the weeks ahead to avert a scenario of that kind. In the longer run, though, tariffs are a form of taxation that mutes demand on the part of American businesses and consumers and has a deflatio-
nary impact. Developments in recent weeks have already exerted a near-term deflationary effect in Europe. On one hand, the euro and the Swiss franc have appreciated sharply, and on the other hand, US demand for European goods that have now become more expensive looks set to decrease. Last but not least, one can expect to see the existing surfeit of Chinese goods on the world market find its way to Europe (at low prices).
Further diverging central-bank paths (for now)
The European Central Bank (ECB) lowered its policy interest rate in April by 25 basis points to 2.25%. The turbulence in the international trade continuum and its implications for economic growth and inflation are likely to bring about two or three more quarter-point interest-rate cuts in the months ahead. In Switzerland, meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank might find itself compelled to cut its policy rate again in June to 0%. The transatlantic interest-rate differential looks set to stay wide and is likely to continue to widen for the time being. The US Federal Reserve chairman thus far has resisted the US president’s call for lower interest rates and currently sees no reason to cut them in the face of a potential inflation shock. But a reason might emerge if the USA slips into a (self-inflicted) recession in the months ahead.
Developments in recent weeks have already exerted a near-term deflationary effect in Europe.
Mounting job insecurity… | …likely to dampen consumer spending US consumer confidence (percentage of respondents who anticipate poorer job prospects six months from now)
Sources: Conference Board, Kaiser Partner Privatbank
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Equities: Where is the Trump put?
• April 2 – the date of “Liberation Day” – was picked deliberately by Donald Trump’s advisors. If it had come one day earlier, market observers and investors probably would have suspected that an April Fool’s joke was being played on them. Liberation Day and the size of the announced reciprocal and retaliatory tariffs indeed caught even diehard MAGA fans on the wrong foot. In any case, it dealt a shock to equity markets around the world, causing steep share-price plunges. The USA’s S&P 500 index dropped by more than 10% within the span of two trading sessions, marking a crash with few parallels in history (1987, 2008, 2020). The US president initially reacted nonchalantly to the tumbling stock prices. Once the drop in prices on the US equity market hit 20% off the February high, a significant retracement ensued after the US administration suspended the new tariffs regime for 90 days. The strike level of this Trump put was once again surprisingly low.
• The impacts of the raised tariffs and the effects of the escalating tariff war particularly against China won’t be completely visible yet in corporate revenue and profit figures for the first quarter. Analysts, as they so often do, have significantly lowered their earnings projections ahead of the first-quarter results releases to facilitate customary upside surprises. The numbers are already old hat even more than they usually are, making guidance for the rest
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Valuation
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Investor sentiment
of the year all the more important. The warnings being voiced by business leaders about the outlook are unmistakable. A new tariffs regime under which the average tariff rate on imports to the USA would amount to 15% to 20% even after substitution effects would be devastating for many sectors of the economy. Tariffs above 100% against China would be tantamount to an import embargo. Unless the White House swiftly changes its course, the earnings outlook for 2025 threatens to dim rapidly in the weeks ahead. Although downward revisions over the course of a year are observable almost annually, if the revision process unfolds startlingly and chaotically quickly, it normally is associated with substantial volatility and a drop in stock prices.
• In the wake of the recent rebound, the (US) equity market currently is not priced for a recession scenario. So, it has a correspondingly long way to fall in the months ahead if Trump fails to make a number of deals soon. Since it’s unrealistic that the USA
Unless the White House swiftly changes its course, the earnings outlook for 2025 threatens to dim rapidly in the weeks ahead.
Movements on the US bond market have been surprising in recent weeks.
will completely backpedal on the matter of punitive tariffs, it would already be positive news if the average US tariff on imports ended up amounting to less than 10%. The thing for investors to do at this point is to keep their cool. A regionally well diversified portfolio has done better year-to-date than the news flow would lead one to presume.
Fixed income: Loss of confidence in US Treasurys
• Movements on the US bond market have been surprising in recent weeks because Trump’s punitive tariffs did not spark a customary flight to safety, contrary to what one normally would expect to see in the face of heightened risks of a recession. Selling pressure predominated instead, causing the yield on 10-year US Treasury notes to rise considerably. Hedge funds’ unwinding of leveraged bond strategies (basis trading) was probably one reason for this unfamiliar sight. However, a certain loss of confidence in the USA as a predictable player on the international economic stage and in the US dollar as an irreplaceable world reserve currency cannot be entirely denied.
• The sharp spike in yields on long-term US Treasury bonds was probably the real reason for the gradual de-escalation of tariff threats since mid-April. In this sense, the fixed-income market (more than the equity market) is the actual disciplinary instrument checking the erratic actions of the Trump administration. The tolerance threshold for the US president and his Treasury secretary evidently lies at a level of around 4.5% for 10-year yields. While that appears to constrain yields’ upside potential beyond that level, there is plenty of room for them to head downward. In the event of a recession, 10-year US Treasurys appear likely at the least to move toward 3%, accompanied by corresponding price gains. Even if some people currently have their doubts about the investability of US Treasury bonds, they nonetheless are likely to be good insurance right now against an adverse macroeconomic scenario.
• Credit spreads on lower-rated bonds have widened in recent weeks in the face of the increased uncertainty on the part of market participants, but they are still at relatively tight levels from a historical standpoint and do not compensate for the likewise increased risks to economic activity. We advise investors to stay defensive in this segment of the bond market and to not let themselves be seduced by the optically high yields to maturity.
Alternative
assets: Private equity under Trump 2.0
• Elite US universities also haven’t been spared from Donald Trump’s wrath since his inauguration. He hasn’t left it just at verbal attacks, but has also even cut funding for a number of institutions. Harvard, Yale, and the like are now facing a combination of
concerns about the funding situation, a weak equity market, and their high investment portfolio allocations to illiquid private-market assets. Several universities have recently announced their intention to offload large private equity holdings, but they will only be able to do that on the secondary market at substantial price discounts. The buyers of those holdings presumably look set to benefit from discounts ranging from 15% to 20%. Semi-liquid evergreen funds, which by now are readily accessible to individual private investors, will also profit from an attractive supply-and-demand situation on the secondary market in this macroeconomically and geopolitically volatile year. However, apart from this “special business cycle,” the prospects for the private equity sector are actually mediocre. The hopes placed in Trump for lower taxes and deregulation have not been fulfilled thus far. Meanwhile, the turbulence on the stock market has soured the climate for M&A deals and IPOs so severely that private equity managers will continue to have difficulty placing their companies on the market and realizing profits for the time being.
Currencies: US dollar under pressure
• EUR/USD: The euro, as an “anti-dollar” currency, benefited in April from the loss of confidence in the greenback. The EUR/USD exchange rate climbed to its highest level since the end of 2021 at a price of almost 1.16. A downward retracement in the near future would not be surprising now because pressure is mounting on the US administration to strike compromises in the trade war and because the euro, too, has some fundamental shortcomings. In the long term, though, even prices above the USD 1.20 mark now no longer seem beyond reach, especially if the dollar’s reputation doesn’t get mended soon.
• GBP/USD: The price of the British pound also is predominantly being driven right now by international politics. Sterling’s rally, like that of the euro, appears poised to run out of steam in the near term, in no small part because last year’s high is a technical impediment on the GBP/USD price chart at the moment. Meanwhile, the British currency remains on a par with the US dollar from an interest-rate perspective.
• EUR/CHF: In the midst of the market turmoil in recent weeks, the Swiss franc ranked among the few bastions of safety. The EUR/CHF exchange rate didn’t find a floor until it reached last year’s low at just above the 0.92 level. The prospect of further rate cuts by the European Central Bank and an attendant narrowing of interest-rate differentials are one of the reasons making a case for a continued strong franc in the near future. The Swiss National Bank may soon be called on to take action again.
The price of gold has been on a run thus far in 2025 and has already risen by a good one-third year-to-date to intermittently as high as USD 3,500 per ounce. In a time of elevated political uncertainty in which international norms are being challenged and the status of the US dollar and the value of US Treasury bonds are being questioned, investors can all agree on at least one thing: gold is the best insurance in this environment. From a technical analysis perspective, there’s no limit to the gold rally per se apart from an overly steep (exponential) rate of the price climb. That’s exactly what was observable in April, and it caused the price of gold to dip from its recent peak. If the White House reacts to the unequivocal signals from the financial market and de-escalates the tariff war, this short-term U-turn in the gold price could extend further. But a major price pullback for the precious metal would once again be merely another buying opportunity because the blow to confidence after the first 100 days of the Trump 2.0 presidency is immense and will continue to reverberate. Individual private investors and central banks in emerging-market countries are both likely to snap up gold on price dips.
Chart in the Spotlight
Sources: Bloomberg, Kaiser Partner Privatbank
Theme in Focus
Sleepless on the stock exchange
In the present day and age, the next trade is just a quick click on your smartphone away. But not only is that immediate availability enticing, there are also hardly any time restraints on stock-market transactions anymore. Round-the-clock trading is enjoying increasing popularity among individual private investors and reflects the consumption culture of a digitalized society. However, the freedom of nonstop trading has risks and side effects. Whoever favors investing for the long term over short-term speculation should preferably refrain from placing spur-of-the-moment buy orders during sleepless nights and should instead drink a cup of warm milk.
For finance pros on the Pacific coast, the trading day often begins when they are still fast asleep in bed –at 6:30 a.m.
Bell-ringing (now just) for show Miss Piggy, Robert Downey Jr., Donald Trump, and Volodymyr Zelenskyy – over the past several decades, a variety of celebrities from culture, society, business, and politics have rung the daily opening and closing bell for trading on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). But ever since floor trading migrated to the digital realm, if not before then, the old bell-ringing ritual now seems like a relic of bygone times that still continues to this day only as a tradition-steeped staged enactment for television. However, the ringing of the bell in the cradle of American capitalism still serves today as a reminder that (official) US stock trading has a beginning and an end. Apart from a few miniscule adjustments, the current time window from 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. (New York time) hasn’t changed since the 1950s, not even under the influence of the growing importance of major investors in the western United States. For finance pros on the Pacific coast, the trading day often begins when they are still fast asleep in bed – at 6:30 a.m. But the time limitations on stock trading have increasingly been blurring for some time now. What started around two decades ago with the introduction of pre- and posttrading periods (from 4:00 a.m. to 9:30 a.m. and from
4:00 p.m. to 8:00 p.m., respectively) could soon turn into a continuous trading loop (interrupted only by weekends for now).
(Almost) nonstop, but not without risk
The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) at the end of last year greenlighted the launch of the 24X National Exchange, which from mid-2025 onward wants to offer continuous stock trading from Monday through Friday interrupted by only a one-hour break each day. The NYSE also plans to massively widen its trading window and is pressing ahead with a 22/5 trading project. New and established exchange and brokerage operators sense enormous interest, particularly among individual private investors. At a time when many businesses would like to see their employees resume spending more workdays onsite on company premises, trading before and after work seems all too alluring to many people. A few online brokers recognized this interest early on. Interactive Brokers (since 2022) and Robinhood (since 2023) by now already allow thousands of stocks to be traded after hours, but not at “official”, understandable prices and not without side effects. Although the risk is constrained because investors can only work with limited orders that set a maximum buying price or minimum selling price, it’s possible that an order gets only partially executed. Moreover, price volatility is high during off-peak hours because only few market participants are active at those times and the resulting illiquidity hinders trading. At the same time, hidden trading costs are also elevated, which is recognizable by wider spreads between bid and ask prices. Another thing not in investors’ favor is that no best-execution rules apply for trading platforms during off-market hours, which means that different prices for the same stock can prevail simultaneously in different places.
The weekend Bitcoin rollercoaster
Stocks essentially are relative latecomers to the nocturnal nonstop trading party. Round-the-clock trading has already been an established practice on currency markets since the 1980s. Trading of futures on major international stock indices has likewise been going on practically nonstop since the 1990s. But the financial world entered a new dimension at the start of the 2010s with the advent of cryptocurrencies, the first true 24/7 market. Ever since then, the preeminent cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, has been a speculative asset and at the same time also a quick-reacting risk barometer for economic and geopolitical news flow at any time, even on weekends. Continuous Bitcoin trading is also, in no small part, an experiment in real time on the question of whether it would be a good idea to also open up weekend trading in stocks. It’s an experiment with a negative outcome at least for those investors who seek stress-free relaxation on weekends and whose aim is long-term asset growth rather than shortterm speculation. That’s because Bitcoin already has frequently been tossed about like a plaything by news flow, particularly on weekends (see chart).
Is Wall Street ready?
The cryptocurrency casino open around the clock is surely one reason why individual private investors desire more freedom also when it comes to stock trading. Their enthusiasm, however, is not unreservedly shared on Wall Street, except by securities exchanges and platforms that expect to do more business. Question marks predominate instead. There’s the question, for instance, of how the daily closing price of a stock – a key reference point for over USD 30 trillion of assets under management in mutual funds and ETFs – is to be determined in a world of 24/7 trading. The fact that clearinghouses are closed on weekends as intermediaries between buyers and sellers also stands in the way of weekend trading unless transactions take place exclusively on a blockchain. And last but not least, who in the already stressed and frazzled financial industry as is wants to toil on weekends, even officially? A market that never sleeps and which compels a substantial part of its workforce to constantly react to the latest market movements is unlikely to be in the physiological and psychological interest of workers and employers. Despite already extensive pre- and post-trading, 80% of all US stock trading these days still takes place during the six-and-a-half-hour time window bookended by the ringing of the stock-market bell. So, the financial industry appears destined for a long while yet to waver between a sense of inevitability about ever longer trading hours and the question of whether they are really necessary.
It's better to drink a cup of warm milk… The sensibleness of endless trading is also questionable with regard to its ramifications for individual private investors’ investment success. The possibility to trade at all hours of the day or night tends to encourage shortterm stock speculation and to divert one’s focus from a company’s fundamentals. However, if an investment decision is not the result of a rational thinking process but is instead merely a visceral reaction to the latest news or share-price movements, then it is no longer an investment decision. Better Markets, a nonprofit organization that advocates for fairness in the financial marketplace, also has a resolute opinion on the subject: “…investing in individual stocks during off-hours trading is already a risky gamble. And human nature dictates that risky gambles are more popular at night. So, imagine what the consequences would be if stock-market ‘gambling,’ combined with the gamification techniques that induce trading, was available 24 hours a day…we don’t have to imagine the consequences. In 2018, the Supreme Court legalized sports gambling. Sports gambling addiction is now approaching a national epidemic to rival the opioid crisis.” Experience shows that disclaimers warning about the elevated risk associated with nighttime trading are unlikely to be enough on their own to deter bored investors from succumbing to the temptation of spur-of-the-moment stock transactions.
The sensibleness of endless trading is also questionable with regard to its ramifications for individual private investors’ investment success.
The time of day matters | There is adequate volume only during official trading Average daily trading volume on US equity market, in USD billion (Eastern Standard Time, Q4 2024)
Sources: Cboe Global Markets, Kaiser Partner Privatbank
(2004–2023)
Meanwhile, it has been adequately proven that having more time to trade really isn’t helpful for individual private investors. This is evidenced by extensive data particularly on the US equity market. A study1 from last year, for instance, showed that investors who live west of a time zone border pay 2.9% more in capital gains taxes than their neighbors in the adjacent time zone to the east do. The sizable outperformance by “western” investors owes to the fact that the stock market in New York closes an hour earlier for them (it actually closes at 1:00 p.m. for investors on the US west coast). Since they have a shorter time window for trading stocks during normal office or waking hours, they trade less frequently than “eastern” investors do. Furthermore, they invest less in single stocks and are more invested in equity mutual funds. An analysis conducted by Morningstar likewise shows that the possibility to engage in trading tends to harm more than help investor performance. It found that the capital-weighted return on US mutual funds and ETFs was lower in each of the last ten years than the buy-and-hold return on the underlying indices. The gap between the investor return (on the average invested US dollar) and the index return was particularly wide (2024: 2.6 percentage points) in single stock sectors, a playground for many individual private investors.
2 J. Li, X. Liu, Q. Ye, F. Zhao, X. Zhao (2023): „It Depends on When You Search“ Mind the gap | Buy-and-hold beats do-it-yourself
…and to make use of breaks in the trading action Greed and fear, but also impulsive, ill-considered trading decisions on the part of investors are the causes of the partially large performance gap. They routinely lead to buying at excessively high prices and to subsequent selling at overly low ones. A study by Georgetown University2 has confirmed that those who take more time to make decisions operate more sagaciously. It found that investors who research companies on weekends have a better nose for good stocks than those who do their researching on weekdays. Stocks in the S&P 500 index that exhibit a higher Google search volume on a given weekend than on previous weekends or in comparison to other companies generally have a better share-price performance. A cool-headed, prudent “Sunday investor” thus operates more successfully than a “Monday investor” does. Those who lack temperance can escape the temptation of incessant trading in a different way. The best means of guarding against overtrading is to not have the possibility to make spurof-the-moment trades in the first place. Such protection can be implemented, for example, by allocating a larger share of one’s wealth to private-market assets. Although private-market assets in the form of semi-liquid evergreen funds are tradable these days (unlike traditional 10-plus-year closed-end funds), they are illiquid enough to make spur-of-the-moment transactions impossible.
However, breaks in trading are useful not just for individual private investors. In the past, nights and especially weekends heretofore largely devoid of trading activity have also routinely been times during which politicians have drawn up emergency plans. During the 2008 financial crisis, for example, US President Barack Obama and his economic advisors invariably tried to present new solutions always before the chiming of the stock-market bell at 9:30 a.m. New York time. For good reason, the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers likewise was communicated before Monday morning to allow the markets to digest at least part of the bad news beforehand. In a world of round-the-clock trading seven days a week, crisis managers would be under even more pressure than usual and would not necessarily react in the most well-considered way.
1 E. deHaan, A. Glover (2024): „Market Access and Retail Investment Performance”
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