To: Hal Doiron, Chairman, The Right Climate Stuff From: Ed Berry, Atmospheric scientist July 11, 2018
Subject: Man-made contributions to global warming A key insight that my study has produced is: Inflows don’t add to the level of carbon dioxide. Inflows set balance levels. Then actual levels approach balance levels according to a residence time of about 4 years. This leads, with some simple math, to the conclusion that the ratio of human-produced to nature-produced carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is equal to the ratio of their inflows, which is about 1:20. This conclusion is supported by common sense. Numerically, this means the 410-ppm present level of carbon dioxide is the sum of about 18 ppm caused by human inflows and 392 ppm caused by natural inflows. It also means that 18 ppm is the most that present human emissions increase the balance level of atmospheric CO2, and the most that the level of atmospheric CO2 can be reduced by eliminating all human CO2 emissions. This is independent of changes in natural emissions. Therefore, the concerns about heating by human CO2 are 4 percent of the total heating, whatever it may be, caused by the observed increase in atmospheric CO2. This is my hypothesis. My answer to the question of "what happened to all the human CO2" is that it has been absorbed by nature in the same proportion that natural CO2 is absorbed by nature. Human emissions behave exactly like a 4-percent increase in natural emissions. No one can measure natural emissions and absorptions within 4 percent. So, it is impossible to confirm or deny my hypothesis using data alone. My hypothesis rests on simple physics and logic. My hypothesis agrees with Salby and many others, and it disagrees with the IPCC. Ed Berry 1