Top-Tier Real Estate S P R I N G 2 0 2 2 : S TAT E O F L U X U R Y
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Contents E XECU TIV E SU M M A RY
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VA N C O U V ER 6 CA LG A RY 8 G RE AT ER TO RO N TO A RE A (GTA)
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M O N T RÉ A L 1 2
COVER: MLS# R2668828 LEFT: MLS# C5484265 Disclaimer The information contained in this report references market data from MLS boards across Canada. Sotheby’s International Realty Canada cautions that MLS market data can be useful in establishing trends over time but does not indicate actual prices in widely divergent neighborhoods or account for price differentials within local markets. This report is published for general information only and not to be relied upon in any way. Although high standards have been used in the preparation of the information and analysis presented in this report, no responsibility or liability whatsoever can be accepted by Sotheby’s International Realty Canada or Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates for any loss or damage resulting from any use of, reliance on, or reference to the contents of this document.
Executive Summary 2 02 2 FIRS T Q UA R T ER HI G H LI G H T S
• Rising inflation and favourable interest rates continue to strengthen demand for Canadian real estate as a hedge investment. • Greater Toronto Area luxury residential sales over $4 million rose 30% year-over-year, as City of Toronto $4 million-plus transactions climbed 29%. Condominium sales gains dominated the $1 million-plus market, with annual gains of 120% and 72% in the GTA and City of Toronto respectively. • Vancouver luxury residential sales were capped by the city’s significant inventory deficit, as residential sales over $4 million contracted 14% year-over-year overall. Annual percentage gains in $1 million-plus condominium sales surpassed other top-tier housing types at 29% with 559 units sold, just shy of the 599 $1 million-plus single family homes sold in the city. • Calgary posted annual gains of 82% in residential sales over $1 million as buoyant consumer optimism and improving economic performance drove new demand and a sellers’ market. • Montréal sales over $4 million were up 140% year-over-year; approximately one in three $1 million-plus sales were in the luxury condo market.
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Against a backdrop of global turbulence, Canada’s luxury real estate market stood as a bulwark of strength in the first quarter of 2022. While scarce inventory continued to undermine prospective sales, the continued upswell of consumer optimism, economic revitalization, demand for housing mobility, and renewal of urban life bolstered top-tier sales across all major metropolitan areas in the initial months of the year, particularly in the market for condominiums over $1 million. According to new data compiled by Sotheby’s International Realty Canada, residential sales in Canada’s largest luxury real estate markets continued to climb in the first quarter of 2022, following a record-breaking performance in 2021. The robust performance of the Greater Toronto Area (Durham, Halton, Peel, Toronto and York) luxury market in the initial months of the year foreshadows strength across every residential housing segment through the spring market. Residential real estate sales (condominiums, attached and single family homes) over $4 million from January 1– March 31, 2022, increased 30% year-over-year with seven sales over $10 million, an adjustment from nine properties sold above this ultra-luxury price point in the first quarter of 2021. $4 million-plus condominium sales surged to lead the market with 160% annual gains, while single family home sales increased 24%. Four attached homes sold over $4 million where none had sold during this time in 2021. Overall, $1 million-plus residential sales saw annual gains of 11% in the first quarter of the year, led by condominiums which surged 120% compared to attached home gains of 79% and a 10% year-over-year decline in single family home sales over $1 million. Top-tier condominium sales also dominated Vancouver’s $1 million-plus real estate market in the first quarter of 2021, as the city’s longstanding single family and attached home supply deficit channeled prospective buyers into high density housing. Between January 1– March 31, 2022, overall luxury residential sales
over $4 million declined 14% from the same period in 2021, with three properties selling over $10 million on MLS in the first quarter of 2022 compared to six sold in the first quarter of the previous year. Residential sales over $1 million were down 10% year-overyear in the first quarter. While Vancouver luxury condominium sales over $4 million were up 8% year-over-year during this time, overall condominium sales above the $1 million mark increased a healthy 29%. As a result, 559 $1 million-plus condominiums sold, just shy of the 599 $1 million-plus single family homes sold in the first quarter of 2022. Frustrated by the city’s supply deficit, luxury single family home sales over $4 million, saw a 13% year-over-year decline, with three homes sold over $10 million on Multiple Listing Service (MLS) compared to six homes sold in the first quarter of 2021. Despite strong consumer demand, inadequate supply also depressed $1 million-plus attached home sales, which fell 16% from the first quarter of 2021. Montréal’s top-tier real estate market moderated to more balanced conditions in the preliminary months of the year, as sales activity normalized from record-breaking gains in 2021. The city’s $4 millionplus residential real estate sales were up 140% in the first quarter of 2022 from the same period in 2021, while sales over $1 million balanced with a 6% annual increase. Notably, approximately one in three $1 million-plus residential sales were in the luxury condo segment. Condominium sales over $1 million also saw the greatest year-over-year percentage gains of the residential housing types at 73%, as $1 million-plus single family and attached home sales declined 11% and 8% year-over-year respectively. Sellers’ market conditions continued to strengthen in Calgary in the first quarter of 2022, as local consumer optimism continued to rise along with the province’s steady economic recovery. Residential real estate sales over $1 million soared 82% year-over-year from the same period in 2021, while sales over $4 million increased to two
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sales where there had been no sales above this price in the same period last year. The city’s $1 million-plus single family and attached home sales rose a monumental 71% and 258% year-over-year respectively, while condominium sales over $1 million increased to seven properties sold between January 1–March 31, compared to two units sold in the same period in 2021. “Across Canada’s major metropolitan areas, we have seen extraordinary sales activity and consumer demand in the luxury condominium market this year, leaving no doubt that consumer and investor confidence in the downtown and urban market has been fully restored,” says Don Kottick, President and CEO of Sotheby’s International Realty Canada. “While there are lifestyle, family stage, financial planning and generational drivers behind the supercharged luxury condominium market, its strength also reflects the stark imbalance between strong demand and inventory challenges we are seeing across the real estate market overall. In Toronto and Vancouver in particular, heated market conditions and evaporating single family and attached home supply have left many potential buyers with condominiums as their best, and in some cases, only option. This will only fuel additional demand in the months ahead.” According to Kottick, while major adverse events may instill anxiety in the top-tier market, Canadian real estate is regarded locally and globally as a safe haven in challenging times. As a result, Canada’s luxury market is poised for robust performance through spring, with the most realistic headwinds being the inadequate supply of housing, and the potential for demand-side government policy interventions that may have unintended negative financial consequences for Canadian homeowners.
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Vancouver The City of Vancouver continued to navigate the challenges of soaring housing prices, population gains, insatiable local demand for housing and housing mobility, and the cascading repercussions of its longstanding deficit of conventional and luxury real estate supply in the first quarter of 2022. A resilient economy enabled Vancouver to maintain the lowest unemployment rate amongst Canada’s four largest cities for most of 2021, and the metropolitan area’s unemployment rate fell to 1 5.4% in February 2022, below the national average. According to the Vancouver Economic Commission, regional economic productivity has now rebounded and Metro Vancouver employment 2 has recovered in absolute terms . Confidence in the local economy and housing market has only magnified pent-up consumer demand for conventional and luxury real estate this spring. As a result, while the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reported that residential sales contracted 8.1% year-over-year to 3,424 transactions in February 2022, the MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro 3 Vancouver surged 20.7% from February 2021 to $1,313,400.
1 Statistics Canada, February 2022 2 Vancouver Economy Report, Vancouver Economic Commission, Spring 2022 3 Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver, February 2022 Image: MLS# R2668828
Within the City of Vancouver’s embattled luxury residential real estate market, sales over $4 million (condominiums, attached and single family homes) fell 14% year-over-year to 99 properties sold between January 1–March 31, 2022. Three properties sold over $10 million on Multiple Listing Services (MLS) during this period compared to six properties sold in this ultra-luxury price range in the first quarter of 2021. Overall, residential real estate sales over $1 million contracted 10% to 1,470 properties sold. While heated bidding wars remain endemic for all residential housing types under $3 million, prospective luxury buyers are now well armed with market data and intelligence; they are increasingly wary of property prices significantly inflated above current norms and weary of multiple offer scenarios. As a result, despite strong consumer demand and limited inventory, luxury properties that have been over-ambitiously priced compared to neighbourhood comparables are less likely to draw multiple bids and are at increasing risk of languishing on the market. Vancouver’s condominium market dominated the top-tier real estate market in the first quarter of 2022, as the number of units sold over $1 million came just shy of the number of single family homes sold above this price point. Luxury condominium sales over $4 million increased 8% to 14 units sold between January 1–March 31, however, there were no ultra-luxury condominium sales over $10 million recorded on MLS during this period in 2022, as was the case in 2021. Sotheby’s International Realty Canada experts continue to note that as luxury condominium prices rise to new records, there is an increasing disconnect between the expectations of ultra-high-net-worth (UHNW) buyers who are prepared to pay such prices, and the relatively limited supply of ultra-luxury condominiums that offer the lavish, bespoke and prestigious features, amenities and services commonly found in other major North American and international luxury condominium markets. Therefore, the city’s ultra-luxury supply deficiency is discouraging activity despite pent-up local and global demand.
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Overall, $1 million-plus condominium sales increased a healthy 29% year-over-year to 559 units sold in the first quarter of 2022, representing 38% of total residential real estate sales over $1 million in the city during this period. Consumer demand for Vancouver toptier condominiums remains relentless, and robust sales activity as well as price gains are anticipated through the spring market. As lack of prospective single family home buyers continued to retreat to higher density housing options due to lack of supply choice, demand for luxury attached homes in Vancouver continues its multiyear surge despite an insurmountable shortage of supply. In the first quarter of 2022, there were no attached homes sold over $4 million, down from four homes sold in the first quarter of 2021 levels. Overall, $1 million-plus attached home sales were down a modest 16% yearover-year to 315 properties sold between January 1–March 31. On the heels of a year that saw City of Vancouver luxury single family home sales over $4 million soar 172% year-over-year in 2021, $4 million-plus home sales moderated in the first quarter of 2022, declining 13% year-over-year as the city’s scant listings inventory left consumer demand unfulfilled. During this time, three ultra-luxury single family homes sold over $10 million, down from six sold in the first quarter of 2021. Overall, 599 single family homes sold over $1 million between January 1–March 31, down 28% year-over-year.
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Strength in Calgary’s conventional market was mirrored in the city’s well-supplied luxury segment. Residential real estate sales over $1 million (condominiums, attached, and single family homes), surged 82% year-over-year, with a total of 427 homes sold from January 1– March 31, 2022. Calgary’s luxury $4 million-plus market observed growth in the first quarter of the year with two sales thus far in 2022, up from zero sales in the first quarter of 2021. There were no ultra-luxury home sales reported in the $10 million-plus segment on MLS, consistent with 2021. While days on market diminished for top-tier properties overall, and well-priced premier luxury homes in sought-out neighbourhoods saw bidding wars, Sotheby’s International Realty Canada market experts caution that given the city’s sufficient supply of listings over $1 million, luxury property pricing strategies should reflect hyperlocal and current market conditions to attract qualified buyers and to avoid listing stagnation.
Calgary A booming energy sector, rapidly diversifying economy, employment gains and favourable interest rates continued to stoke real estate consumer confidence and activity in the City of Calgary’s conventional and luxury real estate market in the preliminary months of 2022, foreshadowing an active spring market ahead. According to the Conference Board of Canada, Alberta is projected to lead the country in economic growth in 2022 and 2023 due to the 4 strong recovery in prices for energy products and key commodities. By February 2022, the unemployment rate in Calgary had declined 5 to 8.0%. Buoyed by economic optimism, real estate consumers steadily absorbed an influx of listings inventory through early 2022, resulting in record-breaking sales volume in February 2022, with 6 3,305 property sales reported by the Calgary Real Estate Board. 4 Conference Board of Canada, Provincial Outlook, March 2022 5 Statistics Canada, February 2022 6 Calgary Real Estate Board, February 2022 City Image by -- via Unsplash
In a city where demand for single family homes continues to dominate the luxury housing market, top-tier single family home sales were brisk in the first quarter of 2022, with 377 total homes sold in the $1 million-plus segment, an increase of 71% year-overyear. Two single family homes in the luxury $4 million-plus market sold thus far in 2022, while none had been reported in this price segment in the first quarter of 2021. Consistent with 2021 numbers, there were no homes sold in the $10 million-plus segment in the first quarter of 2022. The city’s $1 million-plus luxury attached home market saw substantial sales gains in the first quarter of 2022. 43 sales in the $1 million-plus segment were reported in the first three months of the year, an increase of 258% year-over-year. No sales were reported in the ultra-luxury $4 million-plus and $10 million-plus segments, as was the case in the same period of 2021.
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The still tenuous recovery of Calgary’s downtown core has slowed the recovery of the luxury condominium market relative to other property types thus far in 2022. Despite consistent gains, condominium sales over $1 million did not gain the same momentum as the city’s top-tier single family and attached home segments. However, in the first quarter of 2022, seven properties sold over $1 million, compared to two properties sold in the same period of 2021. There were no sales yet reported over $4 million, on par with 2021. According to CBRE’s recently released 2022 Canada Real Estate Market Outlook, the city’s downtown office vacancy rate, which fell 7 to a record low of 33.2% in 2021, is projected to stabilize this year. Although consumer demand for luxury condominiums is currently uneven, Sotheby’s International Realty Canada experts anticipate that this will strengthen through 2022 as continued economic recovery draws new residents and investment into the city. Calgary has recast itself as a destination for young talent and new business investment. As one of Canada’s most affordable metropolitan luxury real estate markets, the city is retaining and attracting a newly empowered, work-from-anywhere professional class from across Canada. According to Sotheby’s International Realty Canada experts, the city has seen a marked increase in out-of-province top-tier real estate inquiries throughout the first quarter of 2022 from across Canada and notably Ontario, as well as the United States. There has also been an uptick in enquiries from mainland China. Increasingly regarded as a destination for affordable conventional and luxury housing, as well as real estate investment, the city is well-positioned for sustained growth and development throughout the spring and beyond.
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CBRE, 2022 Canada Real Estate Market Outlook, March 2022
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January 1– March 31, with one unit selling above $10 million on MLS compared to six units sold above this ultra-luxury price point in the same period of 2021. Residential sales over $1 million in the City of Toronto were up a modest 10% year-over-year to 4,388 properties sold in the first quarter of 2022. According to Sotheby’s International Realty Canada, sales activity continues to stem predominantly from locals, including those seeking housing upgrades to meet family stage and lifestyle needs, along with local investors seeking real estate assets to hedge against inflation and take advantage of strong residential rental demand and low interest rates.
Greater Toronto Area (GTA) Following a year that saw luxury residential sales over $4 million soar 224% year-over-year in the Greater Toronto Area (Durham, Halton, Peel, Toronto and York) to record highs in 2021, the chasm between prospective buyers’ insatiable demand and scant supply widened further in the initial months of 2022, extinguishing potential activity while igniting bidding wars and price escalation. As real estate consumer confidence and demand rose to surpass levels seen in 2021 according to Sotheby’s International Realty Canada experts, $4 million-plus residential real estate sales (condominiums, attached and single family homes) increased a robust 30% year-over-year to 239 properties sold between January 1– March 31. Ultra-luxury sales over $10 million recorded on Multiple Listings Service (MLS) fell to seven properties sold compared to nine sold during this period in 2021. Overall, GTA top-tier real estate sales over $1 million were up 11% year-over-year to 15,209 properties sold in the first quarter 2022. Within the City of Toronto, luxury transactions over $4 million increased 29% year-over-year to 129 properties sold between
Image by -- via Unsplash
Toronto’s luxury condominium market gained additional momentum in the preliminary months of 2022, as fading pandemic restrictions revitalized the desire for urban living, and as prospective buyers across demographics and generations sought the convenience, safety, and increasing opulent lifestyle offered by condo living in the city. The region continues to raise the bar for ultra-luxury condominium design, architectural excellence, smart home technology, amenities and services for Canada, as renovations and new construction adapt to increasingly elevated tastes of cosmopolitan, ultra-high-net-worth and largely local buyers. Between January 1– March 31, the luxury condominium segment led annual percentage sales gains within the GTA top-tier residential market as sales over $4 million saw a 160% annual increase to 13 units sold. There were no properties sold over $10 million during this time, on par with the same period in 2021. $1 million-plus condo sales increased 120% year-over-year to 1,555 units sold in the first quarter of 2022. City of Toronto condominium sales over $4 million between January 1– March 31, soared 225% year-over-year to 13 properties sold. There were no sales yet recorded over $10 million, as was the case in the same period last year. Overall, first-quarter $1 million-plus condominium sales rose 72% year-over-year in the City of Toronto to 994 units sold.
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The GTA’s top-tier attached home activity reflected healthy demand, as sales over $1 million rose 79% to 3,761 homes sold in the first quarter of 2022. During this time, sales of $4 million-plus attached homes increased to four properties sold, all in the City of Toronto, while none had sold in the first quarter of 2021. Overall, in the City of Toronto, attached home sales over $1 million experienced a 17% annual increase in sales volume to 1,018 homes sold in the first three months of the year. Intense demand for top-tier single family housing in the initial months of 2022 overwhelmed available supply, as bidding wars and price gains continued to spiral upward in the GTA. In the first quarter of 2022, sales over $4 million rose 24% from 2021 levels to 222 homes sold. Of these, seven ultra-luxury single family homes sold over $10 million, compared to nine sold in the first quarter of 2021. Overall, $1 million-plus single family home sales fell 10% year-overyear to 9,893 homes sold in the GTA between January 1–March 31. Within the City of Toronto, luxury single family home sales over $4 million were up 17% year-over-year to 112 homes sold. Of these, one home sold over $10 million compared to six sold in the first quarter of 2021. Sales over $1 million in the City of Toronto were down a nominal 6% overall to 2,376 homes sold during this time. According to Sotheby’s International Realty Canada experts, local luxury and conventional real estate market demand, which has set new records since the start of the pandemic, will only see additional activity as the provincial economy recovers from some of Canada’s toughest COVID-19 public health measures. Bolstered by low interest rates and confidence in local real estate as a secure asset class in an inflationary environment, conventional and luxury real estate demand is poised to see additional demand this spring. As a result, price gains atop the 27.7% year-over-year surge that saw the average selling price for all home types combined to $1,334,544 in February 8 2022, is imminent in the months ahead.
8 Toronto Real Estate Board, February 2022
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Montréal The City of Montréal’s top-tier real estate market saw a return to more balanced conditions in the first quarter of 2022, as sales activity normalized across all housing types from 2021’s fevered pace. Despite calmer market activity, diminishing inventory and enduring demand for luxury real estate in sought-after neighbourhoods led to bidding wars and continued gains in housing prices, primarily in the single family home segment. The province’s reviving economy, as well as easing COVID-19 public health restrictions, underpinned continued gains in real estate consumer confidence. According to Statistics Canada, employment in Quebec increased by 82,000 or 1.9% in February 2022 from the previous month, while employment increased by 37,000 or 1.6% in the Montréal metropolitan area. During this time, Montréal’s 9 unemployment rate declined to 5.2%. 9 Statistics Canada, February 2022 10 Quebec Association of Real Estate Brokers, February 2022 11 Statistics Canada, February 2022
Overall, sales in Montréal’s $1 million-plus residential real estate market (condominiums, attached and single family homes) experienced a modest 6% year-over-year increase in comparison to the first quarter of 2021, with 431 total units sold between January 1–March 31, 2022. However, this decrease, according to leading Sotheby’s International Realty Canada market experts, can be attributed to low inventory levels, rather than lack of demand. As noted by the Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers (QPAREB), there were 11% fewer active residential listings for sale in the Montréal metropolitan area in February 2022 than in February 2021, with 9,864 properties for sale compared to 11,145 10 in the previous year. Montréal’s $4 million-plus luxury real estate market saw significant gains in the preliminary months of the year, as ongoing pandemic and changing lifestyle priorities continued to spur fresh demand for additional space and amenities such as home gyms and offices. In the first quarter of the year, Montréal saw 12 properties sold in this price bracket, an increase of 140% when compared to the same period last year. There were no transactions in Montréal’s ultra-luxury $10 million-plus market in the first quarter of the year as of yet, in comparison to one home sold in this price bracket in the first quarter of 2021. As reported by Statistic Canada, Downtown Montréal experienced the highest population growth rate in the metropolitan region from 2016 to 2021, at 24.2%, and the second greatest increase 11 for a downtown metropolitan core in the country. This, coupled with job growth, economic recovery, and loosening of COVID-19 restrictions, led to a return to city living that resulted in $1 millionplus condominium surging 165% year-over-year in 2021, to a new record that saw condominium sales comprising 24% of all luxury real estate transactions over $1 million in Montréal last year. This growth trajectory continued into the first quarter of 2022 as $1 million-plus condominium sales continued to experience the greatest percentage
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sales gains of the city’s residential housing types, with an increase of 73% year-over-year to 137 total units sold between January 1– March 31. Montréal’s ultra-luxury $4 million-plus condominium market posted strong gains in the first quarter of 2022 with five units sold, up from one unit sold in the first quarter of 2021, foreshadowing continued strength through the spring. Limited supply contained activity in Montréal’s luxury attached home market in the first quarter of the year, with 131 total home sales reported in the $1 million-plus segment down 8% compared to the same time period in 2021. Of these attached home sales, one transaction was reported in the luxury $4 million-plus segment, while none had sold over $4 million in the first quarter of 2021. Consistent with the same time last year, there were no attached homes sold in the $10 million-plus segment from January 1– March 31, 2022.
market are optimistic with solid gains expected. With stock market uncertainty and global unrest leading to increased anxiety, many are turning to Montréal’s top-tier real estate market to diversify their wealth, with real estate perceived as a safe and sound investment. As the provincial economy recovers from pandemic health measures that were amongst the strictest in Canada, and as easing travel restrictions increase interest from U.S. and European buyers, the Montréal luxury market is set for a bright and optimistic spring.
Single family home sales made up 38% of $1 million-plus real estate transactions in Montréal in the first quarter of the year, with 163 total properties sold, a decrease of 11% year-over-year. $4 millionplus sales increased by 50% year-over-year with six homes sold compared to four in 2021, and the ultra-luxury $10 million-plus single family home market reported no sales in the first quarter of the year, as was the case in 2021. Strong demand for single family homes led to steep price increases across the conventional and luxury market in February 2022. According to QPAREB, the median price of a single family home increased by 26% year-over-year to $550,000. A housing segment also marred by low inventory, active listings were down in the single family home market, with 3,847 listings reported 12 in February of this year, a decrease of 6% year-over-year. Despite top-tier real estate transactions stabilizing in the first quarter of the year, predictions for Montréal’s top-tier real estate
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Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers, February 2022
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