2017 Top-Tier Ski Real Estate Report

Page 1

TOP-TIER SKI REAL ESTATE REPORT 2017 HIGHLIGHTS


CONTENTS Introduction 3 National Summary

4

Whistler, British Coumbia

5

Sun Peaks, British Columbia

8

Canmore, Alberta

12

Blue Mountain, Ontario

15

Mont Tremblant, Quebec

18


Introduction

MONT-TREMBLANT, QUEBEC – the number one ski resort in eastern North America.

Sotheby’s International Realty Canada conducts a series of annual reports and surveys to capture relevant market data and distinguishing market trends within some of the country’s most sought-after communities.1

A database of active and sold listings is available on the Sotheby’s International Realty Canada website at sothebysrealty.ca.

The 2017 Top-Tier Ski Real Estate Report reflects trends in leading ski real estate markets in British Columbia, Alberta, Ontario and Quebec. It is the first Canadian report to review year-over-year data and timely market insight real estate over $1 million, as well as the market between $500,000 to $1 million, for:

Sotheby’s International Realty Canada gratefully acknowledges key contributors to the report, including Polly Cordwell, Managing Broker; Liz Forster, Managing Broker (Sun Peaks); Nicholas Soldan Harriss, Real Estate Representative (Whistler); Kevin Gilchrist, Broker (Collingwood/Blue Mountain); Herb Ratsch, Certified Real Estate Broker (Mont-Tremblant); Christopher Vincent, Senior Vice President of Sales (Banff/Canmore).

WHISTLER, BRITISH COLUMBIA – the largest ski area in North America and Host Mountain Resort of the Vancouver 2010 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games with ski areas on two linked mountains: Whistler and Blackcomb. SUN PEAKS, BRITISH COLUMBIA – the second largest ski area in Canada after Whistler Blackcomb with a ski area that comprises three mountains: Tod Mountain, Sundance Mountain, and Mt. Morrisey. CANMORE, ALBERTA – a key hub for skiing in the Canadian Rockies, with four ski resorts within a short drive: Banff's Sunshine Village, Mount Norquay, Lake Louise and Nakiska. BLUE MOUNTAIN, ONTARIO – the third most popular ski resort in Canada after Whistler Blackcomb and MontTremblant.

1  The information contained in this report references market data from MLS boards across Canada. Sotheby’s International Realty Canada cautions that MLS market data can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in widely divergent neighborhoods or account for price differentials within local markets. This report is published for general information only and not to be relied upon in any way. Although high standards have been used in the preparation of the information and analysis presented in this report, no responsibility or liability whatsoever can be accepted by Sotheby’s International Realty Canada or Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates for any loss or damage resultant from any use of, reliance on or reference to the contents of this document.

TOP-TIER SKI REAL ESTATE: 2017 HIGHLIGHTS

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National Summary A variety of positive economic and demographic factors are buoying a healthy residential real estate market in ski resort areas across the country leading into the 2017-2018 ski season.

In fact, as ski resorts prepare for the opening of ski slopes and facilities for the upcoming season, the forecast for Canada’s most popular ski markets is strong across the conventional and top-tier segments, with sales and price gains anticipated across the markets in 2017-2018.

During an economic downturn, ski and recreational real estate markets typically suffer steeper declines in sales volumes and pricing than traditional residential markets where many properties are primary residences and therefore considered a necessity as opposed to a luxury. Ski and recreational markets are also often the last segments of the market to rebound even as national, provincial and regional economies have strengthened. In the decade following the 2008-2009 Great Recession, ski markets across Canada, including Whistler, Sun Peaks, Canmore, Blue Mountain, and Mont-Tremblant reflected this cyclical tendency. In recent years however, and in 2017, Canada’s most popular ski real estate markets have seen signs of significant market improvements. In many markets, supply of inventory is lagging behind solid and increasing demand, and prices are heading in an upward direction. This has led to certain markets experiencing multiple offers and bidding wars on the most sought-after properties. Increased tourist activity from a low Canadian dollar, a strong national economy and in provinces across the country, as well as demographic and lifestyle shifts particularly in the baby boomer population, are all contributing to healthy residential activity in real estate markets where ski resort areas exist. These factors are boosting consumer confidence and turning some buyers back to recreational real estate offerings.

TOP-TIER SKI REAL ESTATE: 2017 HIGHLIGHTS

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Top-Tier Ski Real Estate Report

Whistler 2017 HIGHLIGHTS


Whistler, British Columbia The Whistler real estate market has seen a dramatic shift in inventory which has pushed prices in an upward direction over the past two years. Inventory levels have been a significant influence on the area’s market conditions over the past decade. After the 2010 Winter Olympics, Whistler was flooded with close to 1,100 properties for sale, which included all property types: singlefamily homes, condos, townhomes, vacant land, and shared ownership. This entrenched buyers’ market conditions that had endured since late 2008, and sustained them through to the end of 2012. The market began to transition to more balanced conditions in 2013 through 2015, then shifted towards a sellers’ market in the years following. In 2016, the market started to see consistent bidding wars and multiple offer situations. Currently there are approximately 150 active listings in Whistler, which is well below the number needed to trigger a seller’s market. (A balanced market would reflect about 450 to 500 active listings.) Currently, the majority of listings in the area are seeing multiple offers, especially properties that are priced correctly.

“IN 2016, WE STARTED TO SEE CONSISTENT AMOUNTS OF BIDDING WARS AND MULTIPLE OFFER SITUATIONS. NOW IT’S THE NORM RATHER THAN THE EXCEPTION, ESPECIALLY FOR PROPERTIES THAT ARE PRICED CORRECTLY.”

- N I C H O LAS SOL DA N H A R R I SS, R EA L ESTAT E R EPR ES E N TAT I VE , SOT H E BY ’S I N T ER NAT IO NA L REA LT Y

Due to the lack of supply and increased demand, particularly in popular residential areas such as Benchlands in the Upper Village, Creekside, Alpine Meadows, White Gold, Whistler Cay Heights and Kadenwood, there has been a clear increase in prices.

W H I S T L E R T O P -T I E R S K I D ATA 1

# OF UNITS SOLD1

$500K - $1M

$1M+

JAN 1, 2017 - OCT 31, 2017

190

216

JAN 1, 2016 - OCT 31, 2016

224

225

1  Freehold properties only. Single family: house with acreage, house/single family, Attached: recreational, townhouse, rowhouse, condo, 1/2 duplex. No time shares / fractional ownership.

The average sale price in Whistler for all properties has jumped to $1.09 million this year from $877,488 in 2016. This has been caused by dwindling inventory, steady demand and an environment that has fostered multiple offers and bidding wars on some properties. The strongest demand has been for two-bedroom townhomes within Whistler Village that generate nightly rental income. Constrained by available supply, top-tier real estate sales in Whistler have remained relatively stable with 190 transactions between January 1 and October 31 this year in the $500,000 to $1 million bracket, down slightly by 15 percent from 224 sold in the same time period last year. In the over $1 million category, the number of sales has also remained stable, with 216 units sold in the first 10 months of 2017, down a nominal 4 percent from the 225 units sold over the same months in 2016.

CAN ADA TOP-TIER SKI REAL ESTATE: 2017 HIGHLIGHTS

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In spite of its position as an international ski destination, Whistler real estate buyers are primarily from the Lower Mainland. With strong property values in Vancouver, many home owners have taken advantage of the increased value of their city residences to purchase recreational real estate. According to Sotheby’s International Realty Canada experts, current buyers are mainly baby boomers and empty nesters who have elected to downsize and purchase a second property in Whistler, or retirees who have chosen to leave the city and move to the resort altogether.

With minimal residential development in Whistler at the present time, tight inventory levels and escalating demand, prices are expected to increase over the course of what is forecast to be a strong 2017-2018 season in real estate.

Whistler has benefited from the strong Vancouver and British Columbia economy, as well as a weak Canadian currency, which has supported tourism to the region. According to the Conference Board of Canada, prospects for overnight travel remain promising for 2017. Increased air capacity from several source markets will boost overseas visits and overnight visits to the province are estimated to expand 3.7 percent.1 The province’s economy is also expected to expand by 2.7 percent this year while Vancouver’s real GDP growth is forecast to ease from 4.1 percent in 2016 to a still healthy 3.2 percent in 2017.2 While the vacation rental market is strong right now, and while Americans in particular are traveling to Whistler in higher numbers due to the continued strength of the U.S. currency, the impact of foreign buyers on Whistler remains nominal compared to the overwhelming demand from the Lower Mainland. It is expected that foreign buyers, will eventually look at Whistler after buying property in the Vancouver area, but they are not significantly impacting the market at this time. 1  Tourism Insights for Canada, the Provinces and Yukon, The Conference Board of Canada, Spring 2017 2  Provincial Outlook, The Conference Board of Canada, Summer 2017; Metropolitan Outlook, The Conference Board of Canada, Autumn 2017

TOP-TIER SKI REAL ESTATE: 2017 HIGHLIGHTS

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Top-Tier Ski Real Estate Report

Sun Peaks 2017 HIGHLIGHTS


Sun Peaks, British Columbia Following the 2008-2009 global economic recession which resulted in a long, severe downturn for the Canadian recreational property market, the Sun Peaks real estate market began shifting in a more positive direction in the spring of 2013. In recent years, the market has rebounded significantly and in 2017, low inventory combined with high demand is leading to multiple offers on the majority of property sales in the area. With a lack of supply in face of demand, upward pressure on prices is mounting. Average residential sale prices have climbed from $360,075 (January 1 to October 31, 2016) to $416,508 over the same period this year. Properties coming onto the market that are ski- in/ski-out, tourist accommodation-zoned and priced between $200,000 and $700,000 are likely to sell within the first week, receive multiple offers and sell over the asking price.

“IF A PROPERTY COMES ONTO THE MARKET THAT IS SKI-IN AND SKI-OUT, TOURIST ACCOMMODATION ZONED AND IT IS PRICED BETWEEN $200,000 AND $700,000, IT’S PROBABLY GOING TO SELL THE FIRST WEEK ON THE MARKET AND IN THE NEIGHBOURHOOD OF $20,000 OVER THE LIST PRICE WITH APPROXIMATELY FIVE OR SIX OFFERS ON IT. EVERY SINGLE LISTING." - L I Z FO RST E R , M A N AG I N G B ROK ER, SOT HEBY ’S I N T E R N AT I ON A L R E A LT Y CA NA DA

TOP-TIER SKI REAL ESTATE: 2017 HIGHLIGHTS

Top-tier real estate sales in Sun Peaks have also strengthened over the course of the year. Between January 1 and October 31, 2017, there have been 45 sales between $500,000 and $1 million compared with 27 during the same period a year ago, a year-over-year gain of 67 percent. In the $1 million-plus price range, there have been two sales during this period compared with four over the same timeframe in 2016, however, Sotheby’s International Realty Canada experts emphasize that homes over $1 million tend to have a much longer sales cycle, with listings at this price point often sitting on the market for years. Many buyers in this price bracket also opt

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for buying land so that they can build a custom home to their specifications. Leading into the 2017-2018 ski season however, the market is starting to see a pick-up in sales velocity even at these prices. Chalets under $1 million are seeing particular demand as they offer sufficient room to accommodate extended families. Premier neighbourhoods such as Sundance Estates, located closest to the main chair lift and offering the most ski-in and ski-out properties, is seeing strong demand.

S U N P E A K S T O P -T I E R S K I D ATA 1 # OF UNITS SOLD1

$500K - $1M

$1M+

JAN 1, 2017 - OCT 31, 2017

45

2

JAN 1, 2016 - OCT 31, 2016

27

4

18-hole course. Sun Peaks is also getting a new health centre with a doctor. As a result, Sun Peaks is now attracting home buyers from a variety of demographics. In addition to active retirees, Sun Peaks has seen an influx of young families moving into the area attracted by the comparatively affordable cost of living, lifestyle and employment opportunities in the service sector. While international buyers remain a nominal segment of the overall real estate market, the low Canadian dollar and increased tourism activity has brought more visitors to the area as potential international buyers are attracted to Canada,

1  Condos, Attached, Single Family Homes

While Sun Peaks real estate attracts a wide variety of buyers, they are primarily from within British Columba. Furthermore, since 2010 when Sun Peaks became a resort municipality with a mayor and councillors thus qualifying it for grant dollars, improvements to local infrastructure has increased the number of new permanent residents, making it one of the fastest growing municipalities in the province. A full-time, yearround school was established on the mountain which started with 18 children and now has 120 students. A redevelopment plan for the ski resort has been in place with the province since 1993 and is continuing to unfold. Officials are about halfway through the plan with plenty of buildout still to come which will include single-family homes, residential lots, townhomes, condo developments, more commercial areas, more ski terrain, and a nine-hole golf course to complement the existing

TOP-TIER SKI REAL ESTATE: 2017 HIGHLIGHTS

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which has always been considered a safe and stable place to travel and invest in real estate. Over the past year, Sotheby’s International Realty Canada has seen an uptick in buyers from Europe and the Asia Pacific region, including Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan and Hong Kong. Many international buyers are ex-pats who are living and working overseas but seeking a lifestyle respite, and are interested in properties with room for guests to accommodate visits from their Canadian family and friends. With a strong provincial and local economy bolstering the real estate market, and with demand for housing strong in spite of an escalating pace of development and new home construction, Sun Peaks real estate is well positioned for strong gains in the ski season ahead.

TOP-TIER SKI REAL ESTATE: 2017 HIGHLIGHTS

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Top-Tier Ski Real Estate Report

Canmore 2017 HIGHLIGHTS


Canmore, Alberta A gradual recovery of the Alberta economy is helping to drive real estate sales in the Canmore area,1 with purchases by local baby boomers contributing to the majority of area sales. Alberta’s economic growth is in motion this year at 4.3 percent, according to the Conference Board of Canada.2 With that, top-tier residential sales activity in Canmore has also picked up over the course of 2017, positioning the region for strong performance heading into the 2017-2018 ski season. Between January 1 and October 31, 2017, there were 216 sales of properties from $500,000 to $1 million up 4 percent from the 208 units sold during the same period in 2017 , while 67 properties sold over $1 million, up 20 percent from the 56 units between January and October 31, 2016. The increase in properties selling in the top-tier market segment has lifted the average sale price from $655,159 in 2016 to $732,413 this year.

C A N M O R E T O P -T I E R S K I D ATA 1 # OF UNITS SOLD1

$500K - $1M

$1M+

JAN 1, 2017 - OCT 31, 2017

216

67

JAN 1, 2016 - OCT 31, 2016

208

56

1  Single family, Duplex, Townhouse and Apartment Condominiums

Well-priced properties are seeing multiple offers and are selling quickly, putting upward pressure on prices. In fact, throughout the Canmore market, multiple offers are now a regular occurrence, especially in the $1.7 to $2.2 million range for detached homes. Within the top-tier market specifically, homes around 5,000 square feet with enough room to comfortably accommodate a family, extended family and guests, are seeing some of the strongest demand. Three Sisters and Stewart Creek remain popular destinations for high-end homebuyers. Strong year-to-date demand has resulted in bidding wars in the luxury segment and significant sales of luxury homes that had previously been on the market for an extended period of time, as in the case of two Silvertip homes that sold at $3.076 million and $2.825 million in 2017. A new record was also established in Three Sisters this year with the sale of a 14,000 square foot lot at more than $2.3 million, a clear indication of the market’s trajectory. A majority of Canmore homebuyers are from within Alberta, divided equally between those from the immediate local market and those from the Edmonton-Calgary corridor. The Calgary and Edmonton baby boomer cohort has specifically emerged as a dominant buyer demographic within the Canmore market. Many, particularly those from Calgary, have sold their primary residence in the city and are moving to Canmore full-time for the lifestyle, as the location allows a reasonable, 45 minute commute to the western edge of Calgary. The weak Canadian dollar has also made the Canmore recreational market more appealing for Albertans who may have traditionally purchased in California or Arizona, but are now seeking alternatives.

1  Canmore/Bow Valley 2  Provincial Outlook, The Conference Board of Canada, Summer 2017

TOP-TIER SKI REAL ESTATE: 2017 HIGHLIGHTS

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“A LOT OF PEOPLE IN ALBERTA ARE PURCHASING BECAUSE THEY’VE BEEN PRICED OUT OF THE U.S. MARKET. WITH THE LOW CANADIAN DOLLAR, FOR PEOPLE WHO MAY HAVE TRADITIONALLY PURCHASED IN CALIFORNIA OR ARIZONA,

With market performance strong year-to-date, returning economic stability and favourable demographic factors, both conventional and top-tier sales are expected to remain strong into the coming months.

WHEN YOU’RE PAYING AN EXTRA 25 PERCENT, IT DOESN’T MAKE SENSE TO BE PURCHASING A SECOND HOME DOWN SOUTH.” - C HR I STOP H E R VI N C E N T, SE N I OR V IC E PRESIDENT O F SA LES, SOT HEBY ’S I N T E R N AT I ON A L R E A LT Y CA NA DA – CA NMO R E One local buyer demographic the market has not seen of late is the 30 to 45 year old professional segment. When oil prices were strong prior to the beginning of the economic downturn in late 2014, the mountain ski area saw many homebuyers with household incomes of over $500,000 that didn’t mind spending discretionary income on a recreational property. With the global collapse in oil prices, these buyers have not yet returned to the area, but as oil prices and the Alberta economy recover, it is expected that this cohort will re-enter to the marketplace. While the Canmore real estate market is primarily driven by local consumers, the low Canadian dollar has resulted in increased American and international ski tourism that has been further facilitated by the new international wing at the Calgary International Airport, the city’s Ring Road, and newly added hotel rooms in the region. Strengthening tourism has made the rental market more attractive for local real estate investors, and has also resulted in the re-entry of some American buyers into the marketplace. However, according to Sotheby’s International Realty Canada experts, there has not been a resurgence of buyers from the UK, who were a strong segment of the market 10 to 15 years ago.

TOP-TIER SKI REAL ESTATE: 2017 HIGHLIGHTS

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Top-Tier Ski Real Estate Report

Blue Mountain 2017 HIGHLIGHTS


Blue Mountain, Ontario Real estate sales in Blue Mountain have been on the rise in recent years, due to an increase in buyers from the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). While the area’s proximity to Toronto, approximately two-hours drive away, has made this a popular getaway for area residents over the generations, additions to the resorts' amenities have transformed Blue Mountain from a resort that was primarily a ski destination, into a four-season destination. Over the past decade, ongoing infrastructure improvements set the foundation for a strong tourism and real estate product offering. The six private ski clubs in the area have invested heavily in their ski lodges in recent years and millions of dollars have also been invested in snowmaking equipment. Improvements along the highway a few years ago with a new bypass has made it easier and quicker for people to reach the area as well. Earlier this year, a change in ownership at Blue Mountain Ski Resort incited hopeful anticipation that there may be further amenities and real estate development, including questions as to whether new condominiums may be developed through the base of the hill in the future.

Mountain an attractive place to own a recreational property, with plans to retire there in five to 10 years. Sales in the top-tier of the market have also increased: between January 1 and October 31 this year, there were 111 sales in the $500,000 to $1 million bracket in the region up 23 percent from the 90 properties sold the same period a year ago. There were 50 sales over $1 million this year during this period, up 127 percent compared to 22 properties last year. Sales in the upper end of the luxury market also surged in 2017: in the history of the area, there have been 11 properties which have sold for over $3 million and four of the 11 sold this year alone – a trend that is repositioning Blue Mountain luxury real estate into a whole new category.

B L U E M O U N TA I N T O P -T I E R S K I D ATA 1 # OF UNITS SOLD1

$500K - $1M

$1M+

JAN 1, 2017 - OCT 31, 2017

111

50

JAN 1, 2016 - OCT 31, 2016

90

22

1  Condos, Cottage/Recreational, Single and Other

Recent sales gains in the Blue Mountain area are due to this positive sentiment and speculation, strong market conditions in the GTA, as well as favourable demographic shifts. Baby boomers, as well as some younger professionals, are capitalizing on the equity growth in their properties and selling their city homes and downsizing, retiring and moving out of the city altogether, while others are in a position where they can afford to purchase a second recreational property. Many buyers who are approaching retirement are finding Blue

TOP-TIER SKI REAL ESTATE: 2017 HIGHLIGHTS

Properties in strongest demand are all-season homes, particularly those built on the larger side to entertain overnight guests and extended family. They include open concept kitchen and living rooms with separate areas for children. The Lora Bay development with its view overlooking the Georgian Bay, the Craigleith development at the base of the mountain and chalets at the mountain base have emerged as being particularly sought-out.

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The average sale price for properties in all price categories has increased from $497,428 in 2016 to $611,341 in 2017. The intense interest in Blue Mountain has also spiked prices in the surrounding areas. Collingwood, which is located nearby at the base of Blue Mountain, has seen average sale prices of $504,000 for single-family homes this year compared with $424,000 last year. With the low dollar, the Ontario tourism industry experienced solid growth from the U.S. and overseas markets last year, helping boost overall overnight visits 3.8 percent1, according to the Conference Board of Canada. The real estate market is starting to see some spillover interest from international buyers as a result, however, their overall impact on real estate sales in the area has been negligible: consumer demand is largely local. With strong local market fundamentals, and the Conference Board projecting real GDP to increase a healthy 2.8 percent in 2017 and a further 2.2 percent in 2018 in Ontario, it is expected that Blue Mountain is set to experience one of its strongest real estate seasons ever in 2017-2018.2

“WE EXPECT THESE NEXT COUPLE OF YEARS ARE GOING TO BE THE BEST YEARS EVER.” - KEV I N G I LC H R I ST, B ROK E R , SOT HEBY ’S I N T E R N AT I ON A L R E ALT Y CA NA DA

1  Tourism Insights for Canada, the Provinces and Yukon, The Conference Board of Canada, Spring 2017 2  Provincial Outlook, The Conference Board of Canada, Summer 2017

TOP-TIER SKI REAL ESTATE: 2017 HIGHLIGHTS

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Top-Tier Ski Real Estate Report

Mont-Tremblant 2017 HIGHLIGHTS


Mont-Tremblant, Quebec For the first time in 10 years, supply in the home market in Mont-Tremblant has eased but overall demand for conventional and top-tier property is on the rise. Like most recreational real estate markets in Canada, MontTremblant, was significantly impacted by the 2008 economic downturn until late 2016. During that period, the real estate market was driven by domestic buyers primarily from Ontario and Quebec, in particular, the Montreal and Ottawa-Gatineau regions due to these metropolitan areas’ two-hour driving range to the ski resort, along with buyers from Greater Toronto Area, who are within a one-day drive. Ski and outdoor enthusiasts from these regions remain the primary purchasers of real estate in Mont-Tremblant in 2017, attracted by the resorts' ski and four-season recreational lifestyle. At the same time, a low Canadian dollar and broader awareness of the destination ski resort has resulted in interest and sales activity from buyers from across Canada, Europe and China. A stronger American economy has also resulted in an increase in visitors and real estate activity from U.S. cities such as New York, Boston and New England, which fall within a one-day drive of the resort.

Buyer demand has translated into increased sales. In the first ten months of 2017, overall sales volume across all price categories has increased significantly over the same period in 2016, with 347 units sold in the first ten months 2017, up from the 272 units sold over the same period last year. This surge was due largely to a spike in the number of sales below $500,000. As a result, in spite of overall gains in sales volume, the market has seen prices dip so far this year with the average sale price at $303,233 compared with $319,627 last year. Experts at Sotheby’s International Realty Canada indicate that a higher proportion of sales at lower price points is contributing to this. Leading into the 2017-2018 ski season, the top-tier segment of the Mont-Tremblant market has remained stable from the year previous: from January 1 to October 31, 2017, 28 properties sold between $500,000 to $1 million, one more unit than the same period a year ago. During this time, 12 units sold over $1 million, down one unit from the same period in 2016.

M O N T-T R E M B L A N T T O P -T I E R S K I D ATA 1 # OF UNITS SOLD1

$500K - $1M

$1M+

JAN 1, 2017 - OCT 31, 2017

28

12

JAN 1, 2016 - OCT 31, 2016

27

13

“THERE’S SOME WIND IN OUR SAILS THAT WE’RE NOT JUST SELLING TO CANADIANS, BUT WE’RE SELLING

1 Condos, Attached, Single family homes.

VERY MUCH TO U.S., EUROPEAN AND THE CHINESE MARKET [THAT HAVE] DISCOVE RED US AS WELL.” - H ER B RATSC H , C E RT I F I E D R E A L ESTAT E B RO K ER , SOT HEBY ’S I N T E R N AT I ON A L R E A LT Y QU EB EC

TOP-TIER SKI REAL ESTATE: 2017 HIGHLIGHTS

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Further, excess inventory from the previous few years, specifically for ski-in/ski-out properties that offer opportunities for rental revenue, has been absorbed and current inventory is relatively low, particularly in the ski-in/skiout, two-bedroom condo category. Several economic factors are buoying the real estate market in the area including a growing tourism industry and a strong economy. According to the Conference Board of Canada, last year, U.S. visits to Quebec were facilitated by the low dollar while overseas arrivals received a stimulus from new direct air connections to China. Despite modest growth in domestic travel, overall overnight visits to the province increased 2.9 percent, according to the board. This year, it forecasts overnight visits to the province to expand by 4.3 percent. Higher visitor numbers have a trickle down effect on sales, as visitors enamoured with the location will sometimes end up purchasing a vacation property.1

Mont-Tremblant will also see a boost from the economic upswing in the Ottawa-Gatineau region where the economy is forecast to grow 2.5 percent in 2017 and 2.2 percent in 2018, the strongest back-to-back increases since 2007–08. According to the Conference Board, the economy is expected to generate an average of 9,100 jobs per year this year and next, up from an annual average of 5,900 net new jobs in the previous five years in the Ottawa-Gatineau region.3 With continued economic optimism and diversifying consumer demand, Mont-Tremblant real estate sales are forecast to gain momentum this upcoming ski season, putting upward pressure on pricing in the near future.

3  Provincial Outlook, The Conference Board of Canada, Summer 2017; Metropolitan Outlook, The Conference Board of Canada, Autumn 2017

While the tourism industry looks positive, the overall economy for Quebec and Montreal is also expected to bolster real estate demand in Mont-Tremblant. According to the Conference Board, most sectors of the Quebec economy have performed well this year and job growth and increases in investment spending will push GDP growth up to 2.7 percent in 2017 and two percent in 2018: “In the last 12 months, nearly 100,000 Quebecers have found jobs. Household demand will continue to increase over the near term, boosting demand for housing and durable goods. Another 70,000 jobs will be added by the end of 2018. Similarly, in Montreal GDP growth is on track to hit 3.2 percent this year - the fastest annual expansion since the turn of the century.”2

1  Tourism Insights for Canada, the Provinces and Yukon, The Conference Board of Canada, Spring 2017 2  Provincial Outlook, The Conference Board of Canada, Summer 2017; Metropolitan Outlook, The Conference Board of Canada, Autumn 2017

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