in the region and to act as an honest broker, even as the Obama administration has called on China to respect international law and other accords it has signed with other Asian countries. “The least-desirable state of affairs is having to fear that coercion and threats will take the place of rules and laws, and that unexpected situations will arise at arbitrary times and places,” Abe said. “We do not welcome” conflict between “fighter aircraft and vessels at sea. What we should exchange are words.” Although many in the region view Abe as uncomfortably hawkish, he was clearly playing to a sympathetic audience of Asia-Pacific states in an increasingly volatile region that fears what it sees as growing Chinese power and North Korean aggression as rapidly growing threats. China has sent a second-tier military delegation to the conference, and Abe’s only applause line of the night came after his response to a Chinese officer who noted Abe’s controversial visit late last year to a shrine honoring Japanese war dead and asked if he had similar good wishes for the souls of the “millions and millions of people in China, Korea and many countries in this region that have been killed by the Japanese Army.” Abe responded that he had expressed remorse for World War II many times and, in a direct dig at China’s communist government, said Japan had subsequently “created a peaceful, free and democratic nation based on that reflection. We protect human rights and respect the law.” Asked whether Japan was willing to submit its maritime disputes with China to independent third-party arbitration called for in international law, he said “that is what China should think about. . . . China is the one challenging the status quo.” “There is no territorial dispute,” Abe said. “Japan effectively controls the islands.” ©2014, Washington Post Reprinted with permission
Straits Times 30 May 2014
Litmus test of ability to keep peace in Asia By Alex Neill ASIA’S security has declined since the last Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, where the focus of Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung’s opening speech was the strategic trust deficit in the region. Referring to the South China Sea, he warned how single irresponsible actions could lead to the interruption of trade flows, ultimately damaging the global economy. He quoted a Vietnamese saying: “If trust is lost, all is lost.”
One year on, these words are particularly ironic in the wake of the dramatic escalation between Vietnam and China triggered by the arrival of a Chinese oil rig in the disputed waters of the South China Sea. A wave of lethal anti-Chinese sentiment has spread through Vietnam. Prime Minister Dung is threatening to take defensive measures, including legal action against China. Miscalculation, it seems, remains a major danger for big and small powers alike. The 13th International Institute for Strategic Studies Shangri-La Dialogue convenes in Singapore over this weekend amid mounting uncertainty over the security of the Asia-Pacific region and the ability of regional powers to curb this downward spiral. Tensions are running high on the Korean peninsula, where North Korea is reportedly making preparations for a new nuclear test. Friction between China and Japan in the East China Sea spiked six months ago and now confrontation in the South China Sea has once again returned to the headlines. During preparatory discussions held in Singapore in January, Minister for Defence Ng Eng Hen pointed out that nationalist ambitions, progressive military modernisation and dynamic changes in power relations form the backdrop to recent events in Asia. Recent changes to Japan’s national security strategy, for instance, are an acknowledgement that in recent years the security environment around Japan has changed dramatically. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s keynote address tonight at the Shangri-La Dialogue will be studied by leaders, policymakers and commentators seeking an understanding of tectonic shifts in geopolitics and how the security environment will be affected. Mr Abe may seek to articulate his plans for a more muscular defence policy, supported by new Japanese legislation enabling Japan to contribute more to international security. Mr Abe may also elaborate on why he is pursuing changes to Japan’s Constitution to allow “collective selfdefence” - essentially the right to use force in defence of an ally (the United States) under attack. Mr Abe’s national security overhaul has generated deep suspicion in China, aggravated by having top leaders in Japan continuing to visit the Yasukuni Shrine where some of Japan’s most infamous war criminals are interred. At the heart of the matter, however, are the enduring Japan-US alliance, the military element of the US rebalancing policy to Asia, and China’s growing military clout. Chinese President Xi Jinping, on the other hand, has developed his own vision for the security of Asia, incorporated into the “China Dream”. Earlier this month in Shanghai, at the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia, Mr Xi scorned “Cold War thinking” and “zero-sum game” mentality. Calling for a new regional security architecture, Mr Xi stated that: “A military alliance which is targeted at a
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