Victoria Market Report - Q2-2020

VICTORIA MARKET QUARTERLY UPDATE 2020 SECOND QUARTER IN REVIEW PAUL MACRIS • 2481 BEACON AVE SIDNEY BC V8L1X9 • WWW.HOLMESREALTY.COM • 250.656.0911

2020 SECOND QUARTER The first half of 2020 was truely unprecedented for the Victoria real estate market. The first quarter of the year started off much like past years with a gradual rise in volume from our historically slower winter months. Then, in March with the onset COVID-19 we saw our sales numbers plummet to a low of only 287 sales for the month of April. While these numbers were certainly of great concern, at the time, it was our position that that this pandemic was simply akin to a pause button being pressed on our real estate market. As the pandemic progressed, our industry gradually adapted to listing and showing properties while maintaining correct protocols for social distancing.

At the end of last quarter, June had a total of 808 sales, surpassing both 2019 and 2018 sales numbers.

The total sales volume at the end of Q2 was approximately 2.3 Billion dollars, almost 50% of the total volume of 2019. The total number of active listings at the end of Q2 was 2,698. This number has been climbing steadily since the start of the year as is historically the trend for our spring market.

HISTORICAL ANNUAL VOLUME HISTORICAL ANNUAL VOLUME

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WWW.HOLMESREALTY.COM

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BILLIONS

Holmes Realty Ltd. 2481 Beacon Ave. Sidney, BC V8L 1X9 250-656-0911

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$1

Second Quarter

2020

$0

Greater Victoria Area (Core, Westshore & Peninsula) Absorption Rates by Price Range

ACTIVEJuneLISTINGS 2020

30

26.57

5500 5000

25

Months of Inventory

4500 4000

20

3500 3000

15

12.43

2500 2000

10

0

Under $600K

$600K to $800K $800K to $1M

$1M to $1.5M

$1.5 to $2M

$2M to $3M

Oct-2019

2019

Dec-2019

Jun-2019

Aug-2019

Apr-2019

Feb-2019

Oct-2018

2018

Dec-2018

Jun-2018

Aug-2018

Apr-2018

Feb-2018

Oct-2017

2017

Dec-2017

Jun-2017

Aug-2017

Apr-2017

Oct-2016

Dec-2016

Jun-2016

Aug-2016

Apr-2016

2.60 1.45 1.76

4.43 2016

Feb-2016

Oct-2015

2015

Dec-2015

Jun-2015

Aug-2015

Apr-2015

Feb-2015

Oct-2014

2014

Dec-2014

Jun-2014

Aug-2014

Apr-2014

Feb-2014

Oct-2013

2013

Dec-2013

Jun-2013

Aug-2013

Apr-2013

Feb-2013

5

Dec-2012

1000

Feb-2017

7.80

1500

Over $3M

Supply and demand of high end property compared to mid-ranged homes continued to experience a significant difference during Q2.

Looking at absorption rates based on price range in the Greater Victoria Area, under the million dollar mark, the absorption rate was on average less than two months of inventory. Between $1M & $1.5M there was roughly 4.5 months of inventory. Over the $1.5M price point where the market shifts dramatically. We have 7.8 months of inventory

in the $1.5 to $2M price range, and we have 12.43 months of inventory in the $2M to $3M price range. Over $3M we have an astonishing 26.57 Months of inventory. Putting that into perspective, there was an average of approximately 2.3 sales over the $3M price point, per month in Q2. Additionally, there were 79 single family homes for sale over $3M in the Greater Victoria Area at the end of Q2. The BC Speculation Tax is a major factor behind many of these higher-end homes coming to market.

Benchmark prices for a single family home have improved slightly throughout the fourth quarter of 2019. The overall benchmark for a sin-

% DIFFERENCE OF BENCHMARK PRICE (Q1-2020 to Q2-2020 — Greater Victoria Area)

VICTORIA REB SFD-ALL

CORE SFD-ALL

WESTSHORE SFD-ALL

PENINSULA SFD-ALL

BENCHMARK PRICES Single Family Benchmark Prices

Townhouse Benchmark Prices

Condominium Benchmark Prices

gle family home in the Greater Victoria Area was $790,900 at the end of Q2. In the downtown core, the benchmark was $896,200 at the end of Q2.

The benchmark was

$680,300 in Westshore, and $825,300 on the Peninsula.

Over the quarter, in general, benchmark prices for single family homes have increased $20,000 from the preview quarter across the whole of the Greater Victoria Area.

SALES OVER LIST PRICE

OVER LIST PRICE

AT LIST PRICE

BELOW LIST PRICE

While not commonplace, we have started to see multiple offer become more plentiful and selling prices have started to go over asking price.

23% of Single Family

Detached home sales in Q2 of 2019 were over list price. A further 15% were at the listed price. Finally, 62% of sales in Q2 were under the list price.

During Q2, 74% of the homes sold in the Greater Victoria Area sold above their BCA assessed values. Of the 730 single family sales in Q2, only 2 were at the assessed value amounting to less that 1% of sales.

SALES OVER ASSESSED VALUE

OVER BCA ASSESSED VALUE BELOW BCA ASSESSED VALUE

During the second quarter, the absorption rate climbed from 4.3 months of inventory at the end of April, to 5.6 months in May, then back down to 5.2 at the end of Q2. With the rate remaining over five months of inventory, this indicates that we are experiencing a somewhat ballanced Market. This number however represents an overall averaged rate across all property types, price ranges and neighbourhoods. Depending on the price range and the location, the absorption rate and market type can vary dramatically.

Absorption Rate Absorption Rates Greater Victoria Area - (2017-2020)

6

5.7 5.3

5.1

4.7

5

4.7

4.6

4

4.2

4.3

3.4

5.2

5.6

4.3

4.1

4.0 4.0

3.9

3.1

3

2.5

2.4

4.2

4.3 4.1

4.2 4.0

3.6

3.7 2.3

December

November

2020

October

2019

2.4

2.1

September

2018

2.3 2.1

August

2017

2.2

July

2.5

June

March

February

2.5

May

2.3

January

1

3.8

4.1

2.5 2.3

2

3.9

4.0

2.7

April

Months of Inventory

7

ABSORPTION RATES (MONTHS OF LISTING SUPPLY) Absorption Rates - Single Family Detached June 2020

12.00

9.75

Months of Inventory

10.00

8.00

6.00

4.00

3.54

2.00

4.98 4.50

4.11 3.29

1.50

2.65 2.05

3.35 3.09 2.61 1.88

2.92

2.04

0.00

Absorption Rates - Townhouses

Absorption Rates - Condominiums June 2020

June 2020

15.00

14.00

14.00 12.00

11.14

10.00

8.00

6.00

4.00

2.00

0.00

7.54 5.38

12.00

11.47

6.00 5.14 4.89 5.00

4.33

4.09 4.41

Months of Inventory

Months of Inventory

12.00

10.00

8.00

7.00

6.71 6.00

5.08

4.00

2.63 2.00

0.00

0.00

3.22

4.50 2.81

3.94 2.77

1.88 0.00

ABSORPTION RATES BY PRICE Saanich Peninsula Absorption Rates by Price Range

Victoria Absorption Rates by Price Range June 2020

June 2020

37.50

40

13

12.00

12 35

10

20

16.00

14.40

15

10

5 LISTINGS 0.00 NO ACTIVE

Under $600K

$800K to $1M

9 8 7 6

6.00 4.93

5 4

2.79

3

4.20

2.00 1.69 $600K to $800K

Months of Inventory

Months of Inventory

25

0

10.50

11

30

2

1.80 NO SALES IN PAST 3

1 $1M to $1.5M $1.5 to $2M

$2M to $3M

Over $3M

0

MONTHS 0.00 Under $600K

range has upon property demand. As pric-

16

es move beyond $1.5M supply generally

14

Months of Inventory

charts continue to illustrate effect price

longer to sell.

$1.5 to $2M

$2M to $3M

Over $3M

June 2020

18

erty in the luxury segment can take much

$1M to $1.5M

Saanich East Absorption Rates by Price Range

These absorption rates by price range

vastly exceeds demand and as such prop-

$600K to $800K $800K to $1M

16.50

12.00 12.00

12 10 8

5.38

6

If you have any questions about the infor-

4

mation contained in this report, please feel

2

free to contact us.

0

NO ACTIVE 0.00 LISTINGS Under $600K

Oak Bay Absorption Rates by Price Range

1.20 1.17 $600K to $800K $800K to $1M

$1M to $1.5M

$1.5 to $2M

$2M to $3M

Over $3M

NO SALES

NO SALES

$2M to $3M

Over $3M

Langford Absorption Rates by Price Range

June 2020

June 2020

35

7.50

8

30.00

30

7

6.43

25

Months of Inventory

Months of Inventory

6

20

15

10

4

3

2.04

2

5

0

4.85

5

NO SALES IN PAST 3 MONTHS

NO SALES IN PAST 3 MONTHS

0.00 0.00 Under $600K

2.00 2.04 3.00

$600K to $800K $800K to $1M

5.54

1

0.86 IN PAST 3 IN PAST 3 0.00 0.00 MONTHS MONTHS

0 Under $600K $1M to $1.5M

$1.5 to $2M

$2M to $3M

Over $3M

$600K to $800K

$800K to $1M

$1M to $1.5M $1.5 to $2M

It’s easy to be intimidated by Victoria’s hot market!

If you are considering a move, there’s no need to be nervous. Ask me about my strategies designed to protect sellers in a market with nowhere to go.

I’d love to hear from you!

PAUL MACRIS

Holmes Realty Ltd. 2481 Beacon Ave. Sidney BC V8L 1X9

250-656-0911 Paul.Macris@HolmesRealty.com WWW.HOLMESREALTY.COM The information contained herein has been obtained through sources deemed reliable by Holmes Realty Ltd., but cannot be guaranteed for its accuracy.

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