Spring 2023 Kalikow School Poll | Hofstra University

Kalikow School Poll at Hofstra University Executive Summary and Analysis

Poll Release Date: 3/28/2023

Prepared By:

Dr. Craig M. Burnett Kalikow School Poll Program Director

For commentary: Dr. Burnett – craig.burnett@hofstra.edu

Dr. Meena Bose

Executive Dean, Public Policy and Public Service Programs Director, Peter S. Kalikow Center for the Study of the American Presidency meena.bose@hofstra.edu

Peter S. Kalikow School of Government, Public Policy and International Affairs

Abstract

The second year of Joe Biden’s presidency brought both challenges and successes, and, overall, the public now holds Biden in higher esteem after a difficult first year in office a year that saw his initial support levels decline substantially. In comparison with last year’s survey, respondents on this year’s survey reported higher marks for Biden, including being more satisfied with the direction of the country, his job performance, and favorability. While his numbers have improved since last year, they remain lower than his initial few months in the White House; his numbers now hover around percentages that are comparable to previous presidents at similar points in time.

While it remains unknown if Biden will seek reelection, a series of hypothetical matchups reveals that most respondents consider a Republican victory to be very much in the realm of possible outcomes. When it comes to specific pairings, somewhat surprisingly, Biden does best against a Trump/DeSantis ticket. Biden does worst against either a DeSantis/Pence or a Trump/Haley ticket.

Abortion remains a highly stable issue, with some 61.1 percent reporting it should be legal most if not all of the time. By a slight margin, respondents also would prefer the policy be handled at the federal level rather than state level (52 percent). Interestingly, issue intensity is higher among individuals who prefer candidates who support abortion, as 18 percent report they only vote for candidates who would support pro-abortion policies conversely, only 11 percent of respondents indicate they only vote for respondents who oppose such policies (30.2 percent indicate it does not calculate into their decisions).

The state of American democracy continues to be under strain, though there are signs of improvement. Whereas previous measurements reported that about 60 percent of Republicans believed Trump actually won in 2020, that number has since declined to 38.2 percent. Broadly, most people report that both democracy is under threat and that political violence has increased. There is no consensus on who is responsible, however

Finally, we asked a series of questions to assess former President Barack Obama’s legacy, as Hofstra will host the University’s Thirteenth Presidential Conference: The Barack Obama Presidency – Hope and Change on April 19-21, 2023 . In general, respondents view the Affordable Care Act as successful which is good news for Obama, as respondents also believe it was his defining issue. While respondents have mixed views on whether race relations improved during his tenure, he easily ranks as the best president of the past five according to survey respondents.

Joe Biden’s Performance in Office

Satisfaction with Direction of the Country

Reported satisfaction with the direction of the country declined in the first year of Biden’s presidency. In the past year, however, satisfaction has increased by just over 10 percentage points. This reading slightly exceeds the initial reading taken in April 2021, which would have occurred during the traditional “honeymoon” period for a first term president. While the current reading is higher than the immediate pandemic readings under Trump, Biden has yet to see satisfaction levels increase to the pre-pandemic levels seen in Trump’s first term.

Satisfaction with Direction of Country

Biden’s Job Approval and Favorability

In 2021, Biden entered the White House with 52.6 percent approval. The year that followed was, by many reads, a challenging year the challenges were reflected in his approval rating, which declined 10 percentage points during that year. In the year since that low point one in which Biden has netted substantial legislative successes, the official end to the pandemic, among others we have seen his approval rating increase to 47.1 percent. While his approval remains lower when compared to his honeymoon high, Biden has seen his approval rating increase about 4.3 percentage points when compared with last year.

Presidential JobApproval

Since the first Kalikow School Poll in November 2019, we have collected data on the current and previous two presidents’ favorable ratings. When compared with Obama, Biden’s favorables remain somewhat lower. At their closest point in April of 2021, right after Biden’s election Biden’s approval was 52 percent compared with Obama’s 53.6 percent. In this poll, that gap is larger, with Biden receiving 47.4 percent favorable opinions. When compared with Trump, Biden’s favorables were lower when Trump was president before the onset of the pandemic. During and after the pandemic, however, Biden has outperformed Trump on this measure (the difference in March 2022 was essentially zero).

Presidential Favorables

Biden’s 2024 Reelection Chances

We ran a series of potential matchups for Biden as he contemplates running for reelection in 2024. Specifically, we asked respondents to assess Biden’s chances of winning based on certain matchups. In this scale, the lower the score indicates the more likely a respondent thinks the outcome will occur (1 indicates a “very likely” outcome and 6 indicates a “very unlikely” outcome). The question asked respondents to report the likelihood that Biden wins. Interestingly, Trump (President) and DeSantis (Vice President) produces the best matchup for

Biden. In fact, respondents indicate that a DeSantis/Pence ticket or a Trump/Haley ticket would be more likely to lead to Biden’s defeat (though the odds are even, as 3.5 is the midpoint on a 1-6 scale). In all cases, respondents see Biden as somewhat of a favorite or a dead heat.

Average Response to Likelihood of Biden Winning 2024 Election

Scale: 1 = Very Likely, 2 = Somewhat Likely, 3 = Slightly Likely, 4 = Slightly Unlikely, 5 = Somewhat Unlikely, 6 = Very Unlikely

Abortion

The 2021-2022 Supreme Court session ended with the undoing of a 50-year landmark court decision in Roe v. Wade. In that 50 year period, the political world had existed with an equilibrium where candidates carefully talk about their positions for or against supporting Roe v. Wade, with most politicians adopting a position that they would not change the status quo. Left unknown is whether the change in equilibrium would have substantial effects on voting behavior. Results of the 2022 election suggest that abortion may have been an important motivator. On this survey, we asked respondents to assess the state of abortion policy and to indicate how that might impact their votes.

As was the case before Roe v. Wade’s reversal, support for legalization of abortion remains strong (61.1 percent indicate they think it should be legal at least most of the time). We again find that a majority of respondents (52 percent) support the federal government setting policy a number that is nearly identical to what we measured in 2022, right before Roe’s reversal. Interestingly, however, the potential influence of abortion policy on voters may be somewhat more limited than many observers of public opinion may have believed. Only 29 percent of respondents indicate that abortion is a deal-breaker of an issue for them, with 18 percent indicating that they only support candidates who support abortion rights. Perhaps somewhat surprisingly, 30.2 percent indicated the issue was not a consideration for them. As such, almost 1/3 of the population might be unaffected by the debate surrounding abortion.

Trump and DeSantis

Trump and Haley

Trump and Pence

DeSantis and Haley

DeSantis and Pence

The State of Democracy and Political Violence

State of Democracy

In each of the past three years, we have asked respondents to report which candidate they believe won the 2020 presidential election. In the first two measurements, believing that Trump won the election was stagnant for Republicans over 60 percent reported they believed that Trump had won. In this survey, support for that belief has declined substantially. As more and more Republican elites have openly stated that Biden had won, canonical models of public opinion would predict a decline. Here, we observe that believing that Trump won the election has declined to 38.2 percent among Republicans, 20.6 percent of Independents (about a 10 percentage point decline from previous readings), and to 26.4 percent overall. While Trump continues to produce public opinion results that defy conventional wisdom, these numbers suggest that even some of the most dedicated Trump supporters may acknowledge that over two years have passed without any concrete evidence that Trump actually won.

Belief that Trump Won the 2020 Election

About two-thirds of respondents (66.7 percent) indicated that American democracy was under threat. When asked to rank which potential factor was the most and least likely to cause additional strain on democratic health, respondents ranked money in politics as the biggest. Government bureaucrats and political rhetoric ranked second and third, respectively. Interestingly, extremist groups and militias ranked the lowest.

Ranking: Bigger Threat to Democracy?

Politicians' Rhetoric Illegal Voting

Left Wing Extremists

Armed Militia Groups

Government Bureaucrats

Money in Politics

People Rejecting Election Results

Political Violence

We also asked respondents to indicate whether they believed political violence is on the rise 72.4 percent responded in the affirmative. While there is broad consensus that political violence

has increased, views on who is responsible are less consistent. In terms of impact, respondents indicate that politicians’ rhetoric is responsible, followed by both right-wing and left-wing extremists. By contrast, respondents indicate that people who are not religious are the least responsible.

Who's Responsible for Political Violence?

Average Agreement (1= High, 4 = Low)

Politicians'

Retrospective on Obama’s Presidency

In anticipation of Hofstra’s Thirteenth Presidential Conference: The Barack Obama Presidency –Hope and Change, which will take place April 19-21, 2023, we asked a series of retrospective questions to assess how the public currently views his tenure in office. A strong majority (61 percent) view Obama’s Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) as successful. In a broad sense, respondents said Obama’s presidency and policies did more to unify the country rather than divide it.

Retrospective on Obama's Presidency Policies

In previous polls, we asked respondents to indicate whether they believed race relations were improving or declining. Obama, as the first Black president, was widely seen as under additional pressure and scrutiny when it came to race-related issues. Respondents have mixed views on how Obama’s presidency affected race relations. A plurality of respondents believe it stayed about the same, but over 1/3 reported that relations got worse. The smallest fraction (22.5 percent) indicated race relations improved.

Race

We also asked respondents to report which issue they viewed as defining Obama’s presidency. Perhaps not surprisingly, health care reform, also known colloquially as “Obamacare,” is the issue area that stands out for most respondents.

Finally, we asked respondents to rank the past five presidents. Obama ranks first, with Clinton a close second. Both Bush presidents are around a 3, which may surprise some observers of American politics. Finally, Trump ranks fifth.

Presidential Rankings

Obama Clinton GHW Bush GW Bush Trump

Methodology

The Kalikow School Poll, designed by Hofstra University’s Kalikow Center for the Study of the American Presidency and executed by YouGov, is based on interviews of 2,073 of YouGov’s panelists, matched down to a sample of 2,000 nationally representative adults using a proximity matching method. In addition, two oversamples of Black (n=431) and Hispanic/Latino (n=358) were collected and combined with the national sample. The poll recorded responses from individuals who are 18 years or older. The survey collected responses from March 13 – 21, 2023 The overall margin of error for the survey is 2.37

Survey Questionnaire

For analysis and commentary on any of the survey questions not covered in this executive summary, please contact Dr. Craig Burnett (craig.burnett@hofstra.edu).

NOTE: Text that is inside of [brackets] indicates programming instructions.

1. All in all, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in this country today?

Satisfied

Dissatisfied

2. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?

Approve

Disapprove

[RANDOMLY SPLIT THE SAMPLE FIVE WAYS]

3. If the presidential election was held today and Joe Biden was running against a ticket of [RANDOMLY SELECT ONE OF THE FOLLOWING: Donald Trump/ Ron DeSantis] and [IF TRUMP, SHOW ONE OF : Ron DeSantis; Nikki Haley; Mike Pence; IF DESANTIS, SHOW ONE OF: Nikki Haley; Mike Pence], how likely do you think it is that Biden would win the election?

Very likely

Somewhat likely

Slightly likely

Slightly unlikely

Somewhat unlikely

Very unlikely

4. [Rotate Names] Would you say your overall opinion of the following people is very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable?

Very favorable

Mostly favorable Mostly unfavorable Very unfavorable

I am unfamiliar with this person

Joe Biden o o o o o

Barack Obama o o o o o

Mitch McConnell o o o o o

Donald Trump o o o o o

Nancy Pelosi o o o o o

Kamala Harris o o o o o

Ron DeSantis o o o o o

Kevin McCarthy o o o o o

5. With 1 being the best and 5 being the worst, how would you rank the previous five U.S. Presidents? [Ranking Question]

George H.W. Bush

Bill Clinton

George W. Bush

Barack Obama

Donald Trump

6. One of President Obama’s goals in passing the Affordable Care Act often referred to as Obamacare was to reduce healthcare costs. In your view, has the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) been very successful, somewhat successful, somewhat unsuccessful, or unsuccessful?

Very successful

Somewhat successful

Somewhat unsuccessful

Very unsuccessful

7. Do you think that race relations improved, stayed about the same, or worsened as a result of Obama’s presidency and policies? Improved

8. Which of the following policies has most defined President Obama’s legacy to date? [Rotate Options]

Race relations

Health care reform

U.S. withdrawal from Iraq

Legal protections for some undocumented immigrants

LGBTQ+ rights

9. Do you think that Barack Obama’s presidency and policies did more to unify or divide the nation?

Unify the nation

Divide the nation

10. Overall, do you think that Barack Obama’s presidency and policies made the country better off or worse off?

Better off

Worse off

11. Which of the following comes closest to your view on abortion:

Abortion should be legal in all cases

Abortion should be legal in most cases

Abortion should be illegal in most cases

Abortion should be illegal in all cases

12. Do you think that the federal government should set abortion policy, or do you think that abortion policy should be decided at the state level?

13. Generally speaking, which of the following statements comes closest to your opinion about abortion and voting: [Counterbalance Options]

I only vote for candidates who oppose abortion

I prefer candidates who oppose abortion

Abortion is not an important consideration in my vote choice

I prefer candidates who support abortion

I only vote for candidates who support abortion

14. In the U.S. today, do you think that democracy and the rule of law are....

Secure

Somewhat secure

Somewhat under threat

Under threat

15. There is disagreement as to why democracy may be threatened. In your view, which of the following is a bigger threat to American democracy? Please rank order the items in terms of importance. [Randomize Initial Ranking]

______ Disinformation on social media

______ People who try to overturn or change elections

______ The influence of money in politics

______ Government bureaucrats have too much power

______ Armed militia groups

______ Left-wing extremists

______ Politicians who use violent rhetoric

______ Illegal voting in elections

16. There is disagreement as to whether political violence that is, threats and attacks against politicians and groups with whom people disagree in the U.S. is increasing, decreasing, or staying the same. What do you think?

Political violence is increasing a lot

Political violence is increasing somewhat

Political violence is about the same

Political violence is decreasing somewhat

Political violence is decreasing a lot

17. In your view how responsible is each of the following groups for political violence in the U.S.? [Rotate Response Categories]

18. Who won the 2020 presidential election?

Joe Biden

Donald Trump