Kalikow School Poll at Hofstra University Executive Summary and Analysis

Poll Release Date: 3/28/2023

Prepared By:

Dr. Craig M. Burnett Kalikow School Poll Program Director

For commentary: Dr. Burnett – craig.burnett@hofstra.edu

Dr. Meena Bose

Executive Dean, Public Policy and Public Service Programs Director, Peter S. Kalikow Center for the Study of the American Presidency meena.bose@hofstra.edu

Peter S. Kalikow School of Government, Public Policy and International Affairs

Abstract

The second year of Joe Biden’s presidency brought both challenges and successes, and, overall, the public now holds Biden in higher esteem after a difficult first year in office a year that saw his initial support levels decline substantially. In comparison with last year’s survey, respondents on this year’s survey reported higher marks for Biden, including being more satisfied with the direction of the country, his job performance, and favorability. While his numbers have improved since last year, they remain lower than his initial few months in the White House; his numbers now hover around percentages that are comparable to previous presidents at similar points in time.

While it remains unknown if Biden will seek reelection, a series of hypothetical matchups reveals that most respondents consider a Republican victory to be very much in the realm of possible outcomes. When it comes to specific pairings, somewhat surprisingly, Biden does best against a Trump/DeSantis ticket. Biden does worst against either a DeSantis/Pence or a Trump/Haley ticket.

Abortion remains a highly stable issue, with some 61.1 percent reporting it should be legal most if not all of the time. By a slight margin, respondents also would prefer the policy be handled at the federal level rather than state level (52 percent). Interestingly, issue intensity is higher among individuals who prefer candidates who support abortion, as 18 percent report they only vote for candidates who would support pro-abortion policies conversely, only 11 percent of respondents indicate they only vote for respondents who oppose such policies (30.2 percent indicate it does not calculate into their decisions).

The state of American democracy continues to be under strain, though there are signs of improvement. Whereas previous measurements reported that about 60 percent of Republicans believed Trump actually won in 2020, that number has since declined to 38.2 percent. Broadly, most people report that both democracy is under threat and that political violence has increased. There is no consensus on who is responsible, however

Finally, we asked a series of questions to assess former President Barack Obama’s legacy, as Hofstra will host the University’s Thirteenth Presidential Conference: The Barack Obama Presidency – Hope and Change on April 19-21, 2023 . In general, respondents view the Affordable Care Act as successful which is good news for Obama, as respondents also believe it was his defining issue. While respondents have mixed views on whether race relations improved during his tenure, he easily ranks as the best president of the past five according to survey respondents.